JD-TWINS

How does moving Kepler help them win? He’s a 2 month rental with good defensive skills and slightly better than average offensive numbers. He may net a AA pitcher and a lottery ticket from Low A. Nobody’s sending Team some stud pitcher for Kepler.

1 hit over 8 innings is a tall order against a AAA Team IMO ……..3.17 over 19 consecutive starts - some good teams and some bad ones, yes - pretty good numbers!! Every other pitcher in MLB that Ober is compared to pitches against good teams and bad teams as well!

Paddack’s availability will play into this strategy - big time! Using him to start every 10-12 days could allow a skipped start for each guy & keep Paddack’s innings manageable as well over next 50 games. To me, an extra day isn’t a big help but an extra 5 days is like a second All-Star break.

3.17 ERA over last 19 starts (omitting only his 1st start) …….to me, that’s a broad enough sample size to have confidence in him against any line-up in the League……..his dominance reaches back further than Detroit’s mediocre line-up. Last year Ryan was much better at home so they set him up to start at Target…….this year, I think it’s the reverse. Depending upon where we play & when, relative to rest, Ober could be Game 1 or Game 2 starter. Rocco loves continuity, so Lopez - Ryan - Ober is most likely, obviously. No doubt, if they are active, Ober will pitch!

7 games with a 7.75 ERA & then last 7 games with ERA of 2.86……..he’s trending as they say. I’d like to see an outing where he doesn’t give up a homer just to prove he can do it - I think Larnach saved him from giving up 2 instead of 1 yesterday.

Hope you are right in Martin ……..seems to me, he’s sent down when Correa comes back. I get he had an impact yesterday and did what he’s good at, shown in your comments. There have been many, many AB’s that he hasn’t shown - I get, “that’s baseball” but his OPS+ is in mid 70’s. He needs to try and add 5 lbs or more of increased strength over the off-season, IMO. Needs a bit more gap power to make his speed play more. Hope he keeps improving.

Road split of 6 games - not bad thing. Need some momentum build this weekend - agreed!

Team loses 45% of the time, so the sky is falling regularly……..am wondering additionally about Paddack for late September-October in the Pen, any updates on his health? An aside - any Correa health updates?

As a fellow fan (I like activity & spending too) after winning a Playoff Series for first time over 18 years ……THAT should bring equity with the fans & excitement should be there! Not the latest deal. The Team signed Correa - traded for Lopez & extended - drafted Buxton & Lewis & Lee……,seems to me they are doing things to add to fan excitement and success! The Fan perspective is continually, “….what have you done lately”. IMO, not realistic view of how the Team should be run, regardless of how much money the owners have. Look at 2023 METS v. 2024 METS….,a very good contrast of Wild spending and then a conservative approach while still EATING the salaries they had going into last year. I get this is a downer attitude or point of view. I just think realism needs to be part of the equation and not just what the Fans want today being the gospel.

As an illustration, the Cardinals attendance in 2023 (a losing season) was 40,013 per game & it was down 900 people per game from previous year. That’s 3.24 million per year in attendance. EVERY YEAR. Gray has given up 5 runs in 4 consecutive starts………Arenado is not performing to contract this year nor any other with St Louis…….Goldschmidt has not performed for past couple years. Their youth is driving their season offensively, generally. Fans come out regardless - am assuming their games are on local TV but this goes beyond just 2024. Their attendance hasn’t wavered since 2006. Excuses to not go to games and blah attendance when a Team won a playoff series a year ago and is in the mix in ‘24 isn’t helping the spending issue. Not the only problem …..but get out & support the players, IMO.

Snell threw 11 2/3 innings prior to May 22. Since May 22 he’s thrown 36 innings. He’s started 10 total games in 2024. He makes $31M/year & has the flexibility to opt out of his current deal for ‘25 for a longer term deal…….nearly a certainty IF he’s healthy. If he’s not healthy a franchise is paying him $31M to rehab again. He struck out 15 in his last outing and has a .104 BA against over last 4 starts. HIGH end stuff!! This is his career, up & DOWN! Does it make sense to pursue this guy - really make sense - not just a cool move? I’d push Prospect chips in for Fairbanks from Tampa……some modified move for Tanner Scott as a rental……can’t see pursuing Snell as he might not throw another pitch after next week……waaay too much risk!

I agree that a move of some sort would help Fandom’s attitude and may help the Club if it’s the right move. I too do not see being able to add a starter better than SWR, let alone any of the Top 3 guys. Not enough guys fit this profile & the 3-4 guys that might will cost too much in prospect capital &/or $…..just the way it is. To me Fedde - Crochet - Skubal are guys that are not getting traded within the A.L. Central……,that makes the remaining list of choices pretty short. LH pitcher for Pen (T. Scott) OR just another high end contributor to the Pen (Fairbanks) would be huge!! That stuff said, Calvin Griffith was cheap - the Pohlad’s run the Team “like a business” and that can be tough to root for at times. Real tough! They have been a part of 2 Championship years and have been part of multiple playoff entries……I get the lack of success - that’s Pro Sports - many factors involved in the lack of success (stiff competition) …….Citing the Royals as a big spender relative to market size is definitely a one off this year!!! They spent a bunch around a potential star with Witt and they were/are trying to influence a local vote for a new stadium…..different animal to me. If they go out and get somebody else I’ll believe they have turned a corner. However, traditionally not a very big $ spending franchise!

If there was really a “problem” with Jeffer’s foot seems he would not get the nod as DH today……IMO. My view of the Manager is he likes continuity and consistency in his decisions and for clubhouse vibe. The every other day catching approach isn’t going to be altered unless there’s a necessity due to injury.

Both 4-6 over previous 10……they opened a window & we stumbled. Watching the daily results for the Guardians reminds me of Butch Cassidy & Sundance…., “who are those guys?”!!

To me, Team can piece 11 starts together with Festa - Varland - Matthews (?) - Paddack to get through the regular season. ……..somebody mentioned, what if Ryan or Lopez goes down? ….every team has that issue and there’s no insulating your roster with infinite experienced depth……just gotta deal with it & move forward. In agreement with you guys on the best move being (1) Tanner Scott or (2) being Fairbanks or guys like these two. Again, IMO, Scott makes the Pen elite! Sands or Staumont are the #7 & #8 guys…….pretty solid with this move…….Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Duran - Staumont - Sands - Topa (?) - Varland - Paddack - SCOTT. Sure seems this becomes a Team with as good of a chance as any with Correa back & this pitching addition. Gotta try to displace the Thielbar/Okert tandem.

The prospect exchange probably wouldn’t be more than for a lesser arm due to assumed lower competition……..I may be wrong but Snell is viewed a huge injury risk & at $31M, the balance of the season is costly for anyone. $31M is his option next year so he could walk for a longer deal elsewhere……essentially a high risk physically, expensive, & a rental. To me, he’s interesting but doesn’t seem to be worth the risk, if I’m running the team. He looks great from my couch though! Giants are 10 games over .500 at home & 3.5 games out of the Wildcard with 54 games to go……if he pitches & stays healthy, they have a shot at the Playoffs. They’ve been waiting for him and Ray all year and now they seem ready & able. Just don’t think Giants pursued him & signed him to get a dozen starts and then trade him for couple decent prospects.

Anybody see or hear of some problem with Larnach’s health? Seems pretty odd that he didn’t DH today with Jeffers getting the nod against a RH pitcher. I read somewhere tonight that Jeffers has a nuisance injury with a foot ……seems he would get/need the day off instead of a fairly hot Larnach - right? Wondering if maybe the pitcher today has bad reverse splits? ………forgot, didn’t see the first 5 innings - bullpen game. Margot did well regardless v. RH pitchers.

Over, after his first start v. Royals Ober’s got 19 other starts with a 3.17 ERA over those 19. Not sure if faithful here don’t want to jinx SWR’s success or if many are just blind to it or just non-believers? In 17 starts SWR has a 3.27 ERA. Routinely it is discussed that we have 3 decent starters ……… I’m wondering how long and how much success Richardson needs to have to be included in the “pretty good” group? To me, ideally, Team trades what’s needed to get Tanner Scott and the holes are pretty well plugged at that point. Twins can limp every 5th start for two months. Festa - Varland - Dobnack - Matthews - Paddack can cover 11 starts - right? Hope something positive happens in the Pen! I’d take Fairbanks from Tamp and make believe he’s left handed if that’s best we can do.

Great to know - thanks!!

You are right - I misunderstood what is above……I saw “options” and jumped to conclusion. TEAM has Options for 2 years to extend him past ‘25 …. quite a bit different than what I thought I read. My bad.

They didn’t look good in relief - for sure. Can’t win with 2 runs in the first inning though….,the offense blew it for 8 innings.

Agreed on Ober - since first start of the year v. Royals his ERA is 3.40 …….strikes guys out and doesn’t walk many. Very solid!

If they were to create a 40 man spot for him, the post says he still has 2 options left, so no risk of needing to DFA him. At least that’s my understanding…………seems to be worth serious consideration to help somebody skip a start in August/September. Finding a 40 man spot seems to be the challenge! He could be an add with Roster expansion in September to help with a couple spot starts?

Can’t trade Paddack this year but off season is reasonable. ……the other guys have no experience this year, yet, and the real issue is Paddack is currently hurt so his value is low relative to this coming off season. If we can scrape together 8-10 starts from Festa & maybe Varland & Matthews……..Team can keep Paddack fresh for Bullpen use back half of September & October.

No problem with the premise …”gotta give up serious value to get serious value” …..the details are not that important because they are subjective with every potential trade partner. Agreed in general! I live in Cincinnati - Steer wouldn’t displace Castro he’d have Margot’s spot on the roster with the Twins. Steer was voted Red’s MVP last year in his first full season. He’s got 64 RBI & 41 XBH including 15 HR’s …….he’d be a big plus for the Twins…….playing 4 different defensive positions and he has a 1.7 WAR with 60 games left & Margot has a -.80 WAR. pretty big difference 70% through the season. Bottom line - nobody knows who’s going to end up doing what, until it happens…. just trying to give the organization best shot by assembling low risk, high potential guys. SWR has started 17 games and has his WHIP down to 1.114……..ERA of 3.25…..he’s 23. Do not, IMO, think it makes any sense to include him in a package. I think the Team should jump in with both feet for Tanner Scott to tighten up the Pen………with him it could be elite over the last 2 months. Q: Who does the organization go after that is worth 3 of Twin’s top prospects……who is the worthy pitcher? Being willing to make a trade using high value pieces is one thing but there has to be a balancing, worthwhile piece coming back. IMO, Tigers aren’t trading to help the Twins - White Sox not trading to help Twins. Packaging Julien as an upside throw in with a valued prospect or Kirilloff as an upside throw in with a prospect are both reasonable moves. Again major subjectivity here……a high value prospect like Raya - Julien - Severino could come together to get someone of value - not sure they’ll offer enough to get anyone back that’s better than SWR - ……that’s your point I guess!