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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    I know we think Steer’s going to bounce back but for many others here, to be clear, he hit 20 HR - had 34 doubles - had 92 RBI in ‘24. His 1.5 WAR in a “down year” is still respectable - particularly with his second straight season playing 156 games plus.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Right, on Lee. The problem is what we think he could be was only shown in actuality over about 10 days and then it was a. if drift downward. He either needs to plug a spot with his glove (a needed spot) or he should play every day at AAA to develop his bat. I’m hoping Lee/Julien/Keaschall can play 2B by sometime in May (maybe it’s Lewis & 3B is the hike to fill?) but out of the gate, I think Castro plays there 60-75% of the time for stability early. Not naming him the Team’s 2B going forward but the other 3 guys need to show they have some offensive value.
  3. JD-TWINS
    In ‘24 he hit .212 at AAA…….he struck out 94 times in 317 PA’s. No reason to act like he’s a real prospect for the Show.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Another way to look at Falvey’s regime is that they have made the Playoffs 4 of his 7 years. In ‘24, a complete lack of performance by the players over the last 6 weeks squandered a near certain playoff berth. In ‘24 the ownership decided to reduce the budget $25M for the season (16% reduction) back to 2021 spending level. Previously the spend had gone up about 5% annually. FO signed a FA for $5.5M that lead the Team in RBI & HR & won a GG. The Team was 17 games over .500 on August 12th. Ryan got hurt and the offense (the players) went in the tank! SWR (acquired in trade) - Festa - Matthews - Morris - Adams - Raya - Culpepper - Lewis are all guys with potential to stick , in some capacity, on the Staff over the next 1-3 years. Emma - Keaschall - Lee - Jenkins are all guys on a short list to impact lineup over next 1-3 years. I can’t see a logical reason why the new ownership would not give the core of this FO a shot with a Top 14-17 payroll total for a year or two.
  5. JD-TWINS
    IMO, it’s either Lewis moved to 2B or it’s Castro. No way with the limited AB’s through Spring Training that Julien can prove he’s “the guy” at 2B. Lee has to show he can hit as well - they may let him learn in the job more with the bat v. Julien. Lee, to me, should be playing 3B for best use of our potential defensive tools.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Live in Cinti……Steer was voted Team MVP in his Rookie season in ‘23. His BA dipped from .271 to .221 in ‘24 (big time streaky). Over 2 years he’s averaged 157 games played - 89 RBI - 107 OPS+ - 2.25 WAR - he plays 3-4 positions. He IS the right handed hitting Corner Outfielder the Twins are continually looking for as a FA. The trade was made - can’t do anything about that but Steer is a solid pro and the Reds are very happy to have him. DeLaCruz - Steer - Nolve - McClean to a man ALL think CES is the best hitter among them based on their AAA exposure - they were all ecstatic when he was initially called up……not happened for him yet but there’s still a successful big leaguer potential with CES as he gets healthy.
  7. JD-TWINS
    There are a million different comments here on the sale subject - gotta chime in a bit. I gotta say that the FO getting static routinely here doesn’t really make much sense to me. They had a progression of salary % increases year over year since the beginning of their tenure - then 2024’s budget reverted back to 2021 spending. This is a full year after committing $35M/yr to Correa. The FO then assembled a Team for the $130M budget that was 17 games over .500 in mid-August. Injuries (Ryan) and more directly, the offense, killed the Team’s chances. Not really a FO problem IMO. The minor league system seems to be graded fairly well relative to the rest of Baseball - the pitching pipeline seems to be working and has a bit of depth. I don’t get why the new owners would pull the pin on the current FO without at least giving them a one or two year runway with a more competitive (Top 14-17) budget going forward?
  8. JD-TWINS
    ………never hurts to have a motivated buyer!
  9. JD-TWINS
    He doesn’t have to be a Top 10 CFer to play there. I think he at least continues to play OF through ‘26……maybe through his contract as he can finish up in LF. If Jenkins has the potential to be ready by ‘26 Buc could move over sooner than later. Buc is ranked #3 as CF, for what it’s worth, for ‘25 by MLB Network. If the years past ‘25 are the worry relative to the $$ factor with Buxton’s contract ………. “meaningful in their situation” seems to be less of an impactful issue with new ownership. going forward. I realize that new owners don’t guarantee a spending spree but I do think that a payroll between $155-$170 for ‘26 seems like a realistic number. Thoughts?
  10. JD-TWINS
    I’d agree. Cannot argue with his typical limited availability! However, even MLB Network’s 2025 rankings for CF’s has Buxton as #3 in Baseball - up from #7 at beginning of 2024. Even with mixed assumptions on availability, his offensive upside and more than competent defense pushes him up pretty far on the CF ladder. Performs above his salary relative to WAR - under Team control - seems to fit the mold for what this list is built around?
  11. JD-TWINS
    I realize the exercise isn’t meant for you to energize the fans here. Lee at #6 is just difficult to get excited about……Julien at #20, even 14 spots lower, is more difficult. Both young and both have had past success….. obviously, inexpensive and controllable. Not real comfortable that either can hit at MLB level, at least in the near term. Fingers crossed for these 2. Thanks for the list!
  12. JD-TWINS
    After a few months, I’m not thrilled with Lee. Have no problem with this type of move. It may be a year late as Mariners saw Brooks at the plate in ‘24 as well. He’s young though! I live in Cincinnati and Castillo is a bit streaky but he typically gives a Team 3.5-4.5 good months per season. Would not turn him away if available. His WHIP has been solid and pretty consistent over last 3 seasons. His K/BB ratio is good. 30 starts and 175 innings last year. Career 3.56ERA & 3.63ERA in ‘24. He’s a lot like Lopez with one less pitch. As you know, they have 3-4 other decent rotation guys.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Acquiring a mid rotation arm……how or with what? 20 other Teams would like to sign a mid rotation arm as well Whether SWR is a 4th or 5th starter as they run out 5 guys every six days, seems immaterial. Festa has better stuff - he pitched approximately 10 outings in ‘24 - he’s 2 years older than SWR - he’s ready to go. IF Paddack isn’t traded it seems to me he’s an emergency/spot starter while working from relief 80% of the time. Doubt he sticks around……hope he does! Nobody thought SWR would last a month last year & he gave them 4 months before drifting last 4-5 weeks. Don’t have the luxury of getting everyone entering the rotation to a perfect spot.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Everyone else in Baseball knows his history as well - everyone has access to data as well. Pretty tough to get any value in trade - I think we all agree there. $7.5M and a guy the organization knows, for 85-100 innings of relief combined with half-dozen spot starts seems like a decent value. Only 3-4 of the starts are likely to be of good quality. My “hope” is that with decent rest and lower innings he can be a good 2 inning bridge guy in the PEN…….something like Sands was earlier in ‘24. He pitched in 3 outings in ‘23 and gave up 3 in one outing and none in the other two - 5 total innings. Can’t really make a “reliever” judgement on that amount of work coming back from year long injury……,.He then threw 3 2/3 in the playoffs over 2 games and he had a .27 WHIP and struck out 6 guys……..doesn’t make him Mariano Rivera, but it is at least somewhat encouraging. IMO, he’s a better #6-#7 rotation filler option than any of the guys in AAA, including Matthews……….at least through May-June. I guess to me, instead of trading him to be some other Team’s insurance, Team keeps him for $7.5M. ……..I think it makes more sense than trading him for next to nothing and then signing Danny or similar for $5M.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Paddack trade doesn’t seem to bring back much value v. keeping him. Use him as max effort guy for 60-70 innings from PEN. Use him 5-7 times as a spot starter and Team gets 100 innings from him, which IMO, he’s capable of without health issues. Good value at $7.5M. A Vazquez trade either costs prospect capital or Cash to share his $10M contract cost. He brings decent defense - good clubhouse attitude - continuity with current Staff. His offense is easily better than anything Camargo would produce. Keep him, unless another young, MLB ready Catcher can be obtained via trade. IMO, Castro can be covered by multiple others that will all be on the roster anyway. Lee - Martin - Kiersey - Miranda can come together to handle the void created with Castro’s departure. Trade Castro - Matthews - Julien - Henriquez - Martin - Duran in some combination to bring back a MLB ready Catcher or an offensive upgrade at 1B……..both would be great! Vazquez or Jeffers should be available to get these positions filled adequately. Festa & SWR have #4 & #5 rotation spots covered. Morris - Culpepper - Lewis - Adams - Raya for rotation depth (assuming Matthews is a trade chip) Varland - Headrick - Topa - Paddack added to some combination of last year’s PEN seems like a serious upgrade.
  16. JD-TWINS
    It seems the F.O. is operating toward a goal of “around where we are at currently”……$140Mish. But, I completely agree on the $130M being stated as “the floor” for this year’s payroll. Haven’t seen anything stating that the Team/FO can’t spend a nickel more than $130M! I’ve stated this logic before, why would the Pohlad’s try to save $12-$20M this year at the detriment of the Team’s success in ‘25 and their level of buyer attraction dropping. Doesn’t seem to be difficult to re-coup $20M in a $1.45B sale. Right?
  17. JD-TWINS
    Correa played 86 games and had 3.7 WAR in ‘24. I understand the frustration with injuries but he played decent Shortstop & hit .310 & was on the All-star Team…….stating he doesn’t have much positive value seems not to be very logical. Julien is a completely different story relative to value as he hit .199 and had a -.2 WAR ……also, struck out looking more than anyone else in baseball. Then there’s his defense.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Only been 3 comments to this point…….am pretty surprised that nobody commented on Correa dropping to 16 from 6 though. How can he be a less valuable asset than SWR? I understand cost and health are involved in the analysis. I like SWR as a 5th starter! He’s a competitor and he performed very well for 4.5 -5 months. The fact that his ability to get through 5 innings is limited coupled with his drift in performance later in the season makes me concerned that his success was due to newness through the League. He lacks an out pitch or he needs to refine his location capabilities with his slider as that out pitch. He’s young!!! A 2.0 WAR was very solid and a 17-11 record in his games started is very encouraging. Correa hit .310 with a 3.7 WAR and he played in only 86 games. He’s a solid shortstop that projects to play 125 - 135 games/season. He’s paid a crazy amount of money - agreed. If offered up for a trade in the market - even at his salary - I gotta think more teams are kicking the tires with real value coming back to the Twins v. trying to move SWR. His health is a concern but I would argue that this is the case for every body in the organization! Just seems to me that he is not really different than last year (better, due to ‘24 numbers) but he’s managed to drop to within 4 spots of Eddie Julien……..Julien could easily be viewed as # 38, IMO.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Agreed. Bat speed should be able to be enhanced. Not looking for HR’s but harder hit ground balls and line drives. …….I do think he needs to find a mental space to be able to let it go a bit more ……. a sense of confidence and aggressiveness with his typical “first two strike swings” in the box.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Gotta fill holes - can’t just wait & see, IMO. Santander is a draft choice and about $24M/yr for 3 years at a minimum. Mountcastle seems to be a realistic acquisition possibility. Can’t send anyone from current rotation though. I’d prefer moving Lewis or Keaschall to 1B…….Castro can play 2B almost daily until somebody else can hit enough to play regularly. TD readers/contributors repeatedly suggest Julien could be - will be the answer at 1B. I don’t get that thinking at all? From above, “…Julien’s bat struggled in ‘24, but there are signs he will bounce back in ‘25…..”……..What are these signs? How does anyone know this to be true? Why would anyone think this makes sense?………he lead the MLB in strikeouts looking and the next closest guy had over 200 more AB’s…….he hit .199 for the year and his OBP was down 90 points ……his OPS+ was down nearly 60 points. He hit 1 HR after April 27th in his MLB at bats…..through September. I don’t get how he instills any confidence for ‘25 at this point.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I sure hope he’s physically capable when Spring Training starts - a decent Spring and a couple solid months in St. Paul …….. he could be our floating answer between 1B & 2B!
  22. JD-TWINS
    I don’t understand the casual nature that Wallner & Larnach are discussed with here (at TD)? Larnach was viewed as Emma is now 3 years ago. He’s had health issues but IMO he really stepped forward in becoming a professional hitter and key piece in ‘24. Wallner had the best 2nd half on the Team. Power - big arm - why consider trading him to make room for Emma? Both of these corner guys are pieces in the Top 6 of the current line-up. We all “hope” Emma will be good. I’d like to keep all 3 and if Emma can beat somebody out through competition, one of them can DH until there is a clear cut answer in the future.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Prielipp & Canterino are hurt nearly 90% of the time. I am hoping that one or both can get 50-60 innings in this season as relievers. To me that seems to be their only potential path. With health, possible to see one of them at Target in September. Raya is/has been young and thus limited due to continual physical maturing. I like him in relief by late August or September at MLB level.
  24. JD-TWINS
    I understand your slant but Lewis being moved to 2B mid-season & a near Gold Glove right fielder wanting to stick with RF is a bit apples to oranges with Jax. He’s a relief pitcher and the proposed changes are just referencing which innings he’s pitching. Obviously, bridge guy to Closer role is may comparison. Being a starter is a big change in batter to batter efforts & pitch mix, etc. ……..moving our best relief pitcher to a starter’s role because “he’d like to give it another try” is a thing we do not need either, IMO.
  25. JD-TWINS
    I don’t get the “worry” with Jax? He’s a human being with emotions, yes, but he’s also a former Air Force officer. He’s of high character and used to taking orders. He is an employee. The concern about him “being unhappy” to be in the Closer role seems to be way over the top to me. Jax - Funderburk - Topa - Blewett - Henriquez - Alcala - Stewart - Headrick - Varland - Paddack - Castellano - Tonkin……….try to sign Coloumbe for $4-$5.5M or like guy. Keep Paddack for 85-100 Pen innings and a handful of spot starts. Canterino or Prielipp or Raya to supplement Pen if needed by August is more of a blue sky thought but one of them may be able to contribute. To me, Duran is a real chip that can bring back offensive help. Gotta fill void at 1B and Catcher. There are other approaches but Team won’t get anywhere if they don’t trade value for value.
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