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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Agreed on the terminology…….not answering for others here - my concern with SWR is strictly with stamina to continue his similar performance over past 18 starts. The guy had a 3.25 ERA until his last start in NY……..IMO, he’s where he should be with the stuff and mental make-up he’s shown to date …..around 3.75 ERA.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Not really in tune with the comments about adjusting our rotation so our best are throwing against Cleveland next weekend…….not having Ober face the Royals as well?? The Top 3 guys (unless physically not right) are going to throw every 5th game - no adjusting who’s pitching against who - reality doesn’t allow for this type of thing. Pretty sure SWR is right behind them in throwing on his scheduled turn every 5th game as well. The last spot is up for debate based on results they get from Festa in next outing or two. Maybe a Varland or Paddack spot start or two in September to get a guy to skip a start ……rest related.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Varland as a starter, just in case, for balance of August. If starters are stable, he transitions to Pen for last 3 weeks in September. Paddack, if healthy, is on the same timeline and path to the Pen. Health & Health are the keys. Correa back - Stewart back - Topa contributing ……… these things happen and all else will be good. If we can add these 3 over next 2-4 weeks it will be a big shot in the arm! Really don’t understand the complaints about Duran’s “stuff/velocity”? The guy is down 2 miles an hour on his fastball……100.8MPH. Jax throws 97 and he’s “electric”! Duran’s location and pitch sequencing are his issues. Throwing 3 straight curveballs to Bryce Harper - hanging a curveball to Jose Ramirez ….,,those are his real problems. Pitch mix is pretty easy to alter and get smarter about. His fastball in the zone to start, sets up his other two pitches - stop being cute and pitching backwards to look cool!! Command is every pitcher’s challenge - this, IMO, is what he needs to reign in to be consistently effective. Curve at 86MPH - Fastball at 100.5MPH - Splinker at 96.5MPH are all plenty fast enough. Stewart’s shoulder better by September 10th - I sure hope so!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Gotta tip your cap to Cleveland. I thought for sure that losing Francona it would be worth a couple swoons during the season …….all they do is win. The HOT AUGUST NIGHT energy nod is maybe the most positive TD comment of the year. If that doesn’t get you going nothing will!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Buxton & Wallner both at above average production takes the length of the line-up out to a place I didn’t think this Team would get to in ‘24. Against RH pitching Wallner hits 6th & Buxton 7th & Jeffers 8th & Lee 9th………Lee may actually sit so Larnach & Miranda can both be in the line-up. Wallner - Buxton - Kepler OF Lewis - Correa - Castro - Miranda IF Jeffers C - Larnach DH Santana - Lee - Vazquez - Margot on Bench Really glad to see that coupled with health, Buxton has regained the HR power as well. Got to 14 total after Friday night.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Wallner could not hit RH pitching to start the year - nor in Spring Traing - nor in AAA for months ….,,,why would anyone think it’s a good idea for his psyche to send him to the plate against LH pitching to “try & work on it”?
  7. JD-TWINS
    Tony Oliva’s OPS against lefties was sub .675…… saying things about left handed hitters doesn’t make them real. Some lefties hit well against lefty pitching - given!! Not everyone does - most guys grow up facing predominantly RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS (regardless of which side they hit from) so it’s not as big of a deal for RH hitters. Not a big deal for some lefties to face lefties but it’s more common. The question about Margot comes up every 4 days - it’s nuts!! When Kepler can’t play - Buxton can’t play - Wallner’s been sent down - Julien’s been sent down - Larnach’s toe is messed up - Kirilloff is hurt or just sucks - Correa is out - Lewis is out, so Castro can’t play OF……..75% of pitchers are RH …….if he’s the only healthy guy available to play OF in maybe 50% of the games, he’s going to see lots of RH pitching. ……..Same with Santana when Kirilloff had to play OF - he got many more LH AB’s than were intended going into the season. It’s not some conspiracy nor complete lack of logic…….it’s how the performances of guys around him and mostly HEALTH has driven line-up decisions.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Stretch run for a playoff spot is not time for experimentation! .115 in 68 AB’s is enough for me to let him get some work in during the offseason & next Spring. Correct on the obvious choice!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure - unless he collapses in next 45-50 days, that’s the plan for RF.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Probable Wildcard foes: Baltimore - New York - Red Sox - Royals Orioles have 10 guys with OPS+ over 100 Yankees have 6 guys with OPS+ over 100 Red Sox have 8 guys with OPS+ over 100 Royals have 6 guys with OPS+ over 100 TWINS have 10 guys with OPS+ over 100 I think that we can compete with any Team offensively once Correa is healthy - no doubt!
  11. JD-TWINS
    I understand they weren’t aggressive by any means! DeScla - Varland were assumed to be a combined 5th starter. SWR in 6th slot as depth. Didn’t work out. I see glass half full going forward…….IMO, SWR is serviceable as 4th starter, with only a couple clunkers in 18 starts. Gotta piece together 10 more starts in the 5th starter slot. Assuming Paddack can get healthy over next 6 weeks, I see a complete/strong staff by September 10-15th. Duran - Jax - Alcala - Sands - Varland - Paddack - along with some combination of 2 more guys from following ……….. Topa - Stewart - Thielbar - Okert - Headrick - Richards - Henriquez Ryan - Ober - SWR - Lopez in Playoff Rotation …..this seems to work as a staff! Maybe what you say, competitive but not W.S. contenders? I like the Pen a lot………particularly if the 7th & 8th guys are Stewart & Topa.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree…..hitters mature……they start to understand what certain pitchers are trying to do……..I just think 20% K rate is an unattainable number for Wallner, while maintaining 30 HR power over a season. I think 30% is a great goal - if he gets below that he’s a Superstar……he may be that at 35%?
  13. JD-TWINS
    Listing 4 of the maybe top 6 HR efficiency guys in the GAME. Is Matt Wallner that? Do we expect that of Matt Wallner?……Freddie Freeman - Carlos Santana - Ryan Jeffers - etc., I get it……. 12 guys out of maybe 150-200 guys considered to be significant HR threats……..8–10% to me, that’s not “plenty of HR hitters”, they are big time outliers. Not talking about guys that might hit 20 HR in a good year……Wallner has 35 HR power with enough PA’s. HR “threats” are guys that could hit 30 in a season, IMO. Wallner has struck out at near or around 40% rate……..saying he’s be better at under 20%, again to me, is a fantasy baseball thought - he’s not that guy. He won’t be that guy at 32 or 36 either.
  14. JD-TWINS
    While I get the sentiment - not many guys striking out under 20% of the time that hit HR’s at an above average rate - actually, none. The suggestion of not swinging “full out” to reduce strikeouts has some merit but even “approaching” 20% would stifle Wallner’s value! The logical move is to do what you do……until you get to 2 strikes……then a player needs to dial it back in 80-90% of the situations. It’s nothing that’s not 130 years old…… “shorten up” and “put the ball in play” and “fight off pitches” …….all 2 strike adages still hold up & could/should help Wallner be even more effective and reduce his K’s (my target is 30%) to a reasonable level.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Am not an apologist for ownership but this trade prospects for a veteran or two and if it doesn’t work out, spend your way out of it……..sounds like Roulette. I completely disagreed with the $30M slash of payroll……..Team is back to 2021 spending in ‘24…….sucks! That said, they spent $154M last year and won a playoff series. Buxton - Lewis - Correa are all coming back in ‘24 in better health than in ‘23………. a “we should be just fine” in ‘24 mentality is not surprising! Add some expectation for a guy that finally broke through with a 117 OPS+, Kirilloff, - as well as Julien and Wallner at the same level or better………”we should be just fine”………. DeSclafani & Topa contributing with just a bit of positivity with Paddack & Varland both appearing competent after ‘23 playoffs “we should be just fine”. Not terribly surprising they didn’t go out and spend a bunch or even similarly to ‘23, IMO. Spending in ‘24 doesn’t show deep commitment but the positives going into ‘24, in January/February can be rationalized into ownership not needing to do much more.
  16. JD-TWINS
    ??? The premise seemed to be that they were willing to entertain trading within the Division (our opponents) but that “the ask” was ridiculously high. Surprising, no! Why trade to make a foe better in short term unless you get back something that not only helps your club but also stings for the Twins? I didn’t get anywhere that they absolutely would not trade in the Division.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Well deserved for Ober, with some STIFF competition!!! Sands - Alcala - Jax are guys flying under the National Media ……..I did see Jax get interviewed on MLB Network. Sands & Alcala were both “maybe” guys …….even in April & May. Really nice month for both of them!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Soto should be interesting!! Assuming, assuming that he had his fingers in the Correa decision……..little different animal there. I guess with the Club squarely in the Wildcard, didn’t seem to do much at the deadline (maybe I missed something?) and to me, that says he’s being more prudent and less FAN like?
  19. JD-TWINS
    Around a long time as well. Don’t love current ownership but there’s no hate. To me, the acquisitions that would have helped the club (many of them) were not specifically $$ issues they were “prospect capital” decisions. These are conscious decisions about the health of the future of the club. Another guy at TD stated Gonzalez - Severino - Kiersey for A.J. Puk may have been an option - I agree with that from Twin’s angle but maybe not enough in this market. Trying to get better trading with NEED in the SAME DIVISION is setting yourself up to get raked over the coals for high end prospects. Not really I practical option/approach. While I do think spending contraction of $30M was stifling for the club’s progression in ‘24, the deadline was more about making prudent trades and not tossing guys away for a short term pat on the back. Probably missed out on 2-3 different trades that could have been made but have to be real with the fact that there were a dozen other buyers out there making offers as well. All in all, if Topa does anything positive & Correa can be 85% of what he’s been & back in a couple more weeks, things will be “OK”. They still make the Playoffs - going to be teams at their heals for 50 more games - playoffs aren’t a given. If things click (‘23 D-backs) they are fully capable, with this roster, to get to ALCS!
  20. JD-TWINS
    I get your sentiment. Sure seems the Fan shifted gears quickly last year trading both Scherzer & Verlander away……his new toys weren’t helping them get competitive so he moved them and still had to eat big chunks of their salaries. Maybe not the ideal way to spend all that $$$? They haven’t extended Alonso - yet……he seems to have gotten a dose of “frugal owner” in ‘24. Odd how building across the board with balanced talent v. the big names, have paid off for Mets this year. Obviously, their payroll isn’t thin but he certainly stepped back and seems cautious moving forward.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely no problem promoting him to AA and using him in short stints to simulate a reliever. Am excited to see him progress! I just think saying he’s the best lefty we have is premature after just a few innings at a low level in ‘24. It’s a long way from trying AA on August 10th & pitching in a pressure cooker in the Show on September 15th. To me, not the organization, it seems like a hell of a stretch.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Q: Who gets demoted if Topa comes up in a week or so? Staumont has been OK but seems to be losing his edge…….just saw he’s been DFA’d! Thielbar & Okert have been ineffective. I assume the guy they got from Toronto gets 3-4 opportunities before any judgement is made. Stewart is back on IL. Duran - Jax - Alcala - Sands - Richards - TOPA - Dobnack - Thielbar - Okert …..personally, I think Ronny Henriquez deserves consideration as well for promotion.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Headrick had two nice starts in St. Paul to start the year……I have confidence that he can get guys out in short bursts in the Show after 3-4 more weeks of work. Prielipp is really a stretch, as you point out. He’s hurt 80-90% of the time it seems……he did well in Florida Coast and now one TWO INNING appearance at next level. “Striking out guys like crazy” seems to be a bit of wishful thinking as he would move up 3 more levels. I’d like to see him finish the year without hurting his arm…..,,a low bar. Can’t imagine him ever getting a chance with the big club in ‘24. His stuff might play an inning at a time for big club but protecting his arm and future has to be highest priority over next couple months.
  24. JD-TWINS
    I realize you state his Post-season is limited……4 1/3 innings is almost non-existent. My point is we all here get excited about other’s stats without picking them apart - i.e. Sonny Gray, etc. ………I didn’t call Ober an ACE as I think there may only be 10 in all of baseball. He’s very good - consistent for the most part. EVERYONE pitches against weak opponents………Ober’s successful numbers are spread over 19 starts so somebody in there had a capable line-up or maybe 8?
  25. JD-TWINS
    They are or are not trying to win? I may have misunderstood what you’re getting at here……if so, sorry.
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