JD-TWINS

The “hierarchy of failure” is a concept I like because the level of responsibility doesn’t get lost in some narrative. 1) PLAYERS ……in mid-August they were 17 games over .500 with the roster the FO put together and the Manager/Coaches they had for 4.5 months and the level of spending Ownership signed off on through February. Correa had been out for a month already. 2) OWNERSHIP ……..when Ryan went down, after Paddack had gone down, there should have been a real starter option OR a recently acquired reliever to help shut things down when in a position to win. This needed to be anticipated and handled at the break ……,implementing/reverting to 2021 payroll in 2024 was a problem. 3) FO …….I spent a good chunk of the season sticking up for Margot and Santana and Farmer ……….Santana was a Good Acquisition as he POSTED daily & lead the Team in HR & RBI while playing fantastic defense. Vazquez played good defense and ended up tolerable at the plate after mid-June. Margot was OK or better v. LH pitching but his defense was sub-par ………due to all kinds of injuries…… even infield injuries that pulled Castro from OF availability……… also, ineffectiveness of Wallner & Julien ……..Margot was forced into action way TOO OFTEN v. RH pitching. He was not multi dimensional enough with the bat. Farmer was just rough (due mostly to shoulder issue) for 16-18 weeks and that turned out to be an unfortunate mistake signing. His bench presence and attitude couldn’t outweigh his lack of offensive performance. 4) MANAGER/COACHES …… too many details to cover here …….streakiness of success and complete malaise the group fell into late has to be combatted somehow. See #1 though for failure responsibility……, however, Tommy Watkins at 3B butchered up his job 4-6 times over a short 3 week period …..big problem! Batting coaches have been fired….. so there’s that ……. My slant …..maybe not popular but players hit, pitch, catch, etc. ………they are adults that have played the game from age 8 to 24 at a minimum (take responsibility for performance) ………….if the Players that make up the roster and the coaches that were in place through 4.5 months look GOLDEN (17 games over .500) to that point, how did what FO & coaches did over last 6 weeks screw up the Team so much that they couldn’t play level .500 ball?

Festa is more ready - Matthews throws strikes at a high rate ….. that did diminish somewhat at MLB level…… he doesn’t have enough command within the zone though! I agree, SWR is ahead of Matthews at this point and the rotation you show should work! Matthews - Lewis - Morris - Raya as AAA depth. Blewett - Headrick - Funderburk - Lefty acquisition or Moran?…………..Henriquez - Alcala - Stewart - Varland - Sands - Topa - Paddack - Jax - Duran ……,our Bullpen could be a real weapon!

I just can’t get behind Julien as the #1 option at 2B ……..he seems to have high potential for a “change of scenery” trade piece. His defense is marginal but his offense is below standards the Twins need to set for the Club, IMO. ……..I’m really not a Brooks Lee fan after what I saw at MLB level either. His defense works at 2B ……. I think he provides value at 3B defensively. His bat though, really looks impotent. Routinely, he rolled balls to 2B from the left side and his plate discipline is not very good. As you say, maybe needs 6-10 weeks in St. Paul to get him right and get him hungry to prove himself. I guess they both come to spring Training to compete and Castro is a fallback as needed. Will be interesting to see if Keaschall will be ready to throw in Spring Training - assuming he won’t be a consideration until at least June? Kirilloff comes to Spring Training to have an opportunity but he may be an affordable trade piece later in the season if he’s not in the regular playing time mix. I think they need to focus on adding a BAT! A proven, capable guy to DH or play OF or 2B. Pitching seems stable to me: Blewett - Funderburk - Headrick - Henriquez - Alcala - Varland - Sands - Topa - Paddack - Jax - Duran……….11 capable bodies in the Pen to start. Lefty with experience is only potential need….,,,a guy to spend on or trade for if possible. Canterino healthy enough to help in Pen??? Ryan - Ober - Festa - SWR - Lopez Matthews - Lewis - Morris (Raya for Pen depth after June) If this group of pitchers are expected to be healthy……..I think they have enough for ‘25.

2024 was a debacle - lots of blame to be spread around - lots of point of views. 2022…….can’t expect to win games with Nick Gordon being a Top performer in the line-up down the stretch. Jake Cave - Celestino in the OF every day……..he’s not David Copperfield. Sandy Leon catching……..Buxton out 8/23 for balance of season……..Kyle Garlick & Billy Hamilton on roster for OF August/September. Jorge Lopez on the mound with a big grin while he’s getting lit up (nuts) …….Joe Smith. Can’t win with no players…….i.e. Casey Stengel w/Mets.

He gets “too aggressive” on high fastballs and then can’t hit sliders as eye level is out of whack ……he seems to fluctuate a bunch with his plate discipline……my biggest concern is his health! Gotta be able to play more than a sixty games stretch at MLB level………Tough to make a living getting on top of high fastballs. ‘23 Kirilloff OPS+ 116 ‘23 Juilen OPS+ 130 Things change, sometimes good and sometimes not. LEVINE is gone as of this a.m., so maybe the talent level needle moves upward?

Didn’t watch video - Duran dipped from 103.8 max at times in ‘23 to 103 max in ‘24. He was being scrutinized for “only throwing” 99-100Mph “…..lost his velocity….” I saw him throw 20 times minimum and his curve was still around 87Mph …… Splinker 96-97 Mph …..Fastball 99-101Mph. So he’s not at his career peak……do these numbers show a guy that’s losing it in a dramatic fashion? Clase throws 100 to 101 maximum. Jax has “electric stuff” and his fastball is 97Mph. Pitch sequence and execution are the only thing Duran has to worry about/fix. Stay healthy!!

Surprise…….watching MLB Central this a.m. & “Thad Levine has left the Twins to pursue other opportunities inside and outside of Baseball……” That should make some people here smile!!

The other Teams use a different ball in 2019? Wallner was sent down after a glowing ‘23 stint - he fixed himself in St Paul with a bit of coaching in ‘24 and seems OK. Julien, not so good. Lee can’t hit at proper level, he needs more time in St Paul OR he was a poor draft pick? Lewis seemed to transition just fine, until he had to play regularly and pitchers made some adjustments to combat his aggressiveness……..players come and go at the AAA/MLB levels in every organization in the game initially. Then they either sink or swim with that organization or they pursue opportunities elsewhere…….very common! A Manager that can coach and understand a tight budget situation seems to be in Baldelli’s wheelhouse per his numerous seasons in the Ray’s organization - right? Maybe he doesn’t embrace the approach but he surely understands the nuances.

Add 2019, also under Baldelli as Manager of the Year, they are 421 - 389. Facts in the big picture w/Baldelli. ……..I don’t love the guy but nobody gets on Rob Thompson when Phillies go in the tank for 6 weeks - hitting coach isn’t blamed when Castellanos goes Ofer a series, in 3 of 4 series, because HE’S expected to come out of it on his own and does. Players play, and Managers give guys an opportunity to succeed in differing situations. Lewis has to get HIS act together, for example. My assumption, other than not having a better idea, is that Management kept Rocco to send a message to the players in the entire organization that they won’t be bailed out by placing blame elsewhere……it’s up to them.

The assumption is the Manager should get the Team into the playoffs every year he manages regardless of player performance?

‘22? AAA club for last 60-75 days due to injuries ……..anyone could have managed that group because where Jake Cave & Celestino & Contreras hit in the line-up didn’t matter. They tried out Billy Hamilton. Nick Gordon was a star on that club.

He played for them for multiple years after this incident - right? I don’t think anybody (small%) even thinks about that issue with him. Would the Twins or any organization not hire Barry Bonds if he wanted to be a hitting coach? I’m old school but this seems to be a non-issue to me. I do like, as suggested, Cruz as the assistant. Maybe Joey Votto is bored playing chess in Toronto?………great contact hitter…..,,,high OBP guy with 350+ HR’s. Don’t know if he can teach or would want to try?

Camargo is not the answer unless absolutely unavoidable! Helman is not going to make it past St. Paul without serious rash of injuries above him. I think I would protect Kiersey as at least defensive insurance in CF. I could see him starting 30 games or more in ‘25 for the Big Club. Lee - to me - major disappointment. He grounded out weakly to 2B more than Jeffers popped out & that’s hard to do in only 40 something games!! 3 HR is not an issue - hardly any well struck line drives is very worrisome! Martin will be taking Margot’s spot as the RH bat as a platoon. He’s gotta WORK on stealing bases to bring value & help offset his mediocre defense.

First, Alcala threw 9 pitches and the game was tied………once it was tied he got the 2nd out……seemed to have settled himself. Not burning a stopper at 4-4 in mid August. Alcala sucked and it’s in him - 100%. Second, rules are a pitcher starting an inning has to face 3 batters. There is no 2 pitch appearance that’s feasible nor logical. Three, the guy was put into the game to do his job. His ERA at that point was under 2.00. Why, with a 4 run lead would a Manager freak out and get somebody up after 2 pitches when Alcala has been nearly bullet proof for 60 days? Everything is SO CLEAR in hindsight……,getting Alcala out of that game in a heartbeat made no sense in real time.

It’s not & the Twin’s season turned south with their inability to hit and score runs! Strategy and line-up choices didn’t lose games it was guys not performing in the batter’s box over vast majority of 6 weeks.

Carlos Correa just needs a little veteran company to lead the youngsters ……..maybe an arm? I see their needs as 100% on offense but that’s just me. Adding “successful” veterans is the point.

WHY is the sentiment that the Padres have done something magical with their salary spend in ‘24? With Maeda and Baez the Tigers payroll in April was $98M ……. very modest!! The Padres payroll after the trade deadline is $169M. I get the enthusiastic S.D. crowd and players reactions after winning makes everything seem cool! The reality is that the Tigers and Padres payroll couldn’t be more different…….$73M different. I don’t get the comparison or supposed symmetry? $90 million reduction in payroll from some drunken sailor spending at $260M isn’t some great feat by Preller. I like their Team and they have spent at a level that would almost certainly take the Twins into a great spot in the AL. Sure, Tigers caught lightning in a bottle but 8-10 games under .500 in August is a tenuous spot to be in and it’s doubtful a Team will find themselves in the playoffs from that spot.

Not really sure what this article nor your comments are supposed to compare? Both Team’s had to cut payroll in ‘24 is the baseline I guess? How is there any real comparison that makes sense if the Padres cut to get to $162M ($169 after All-Star break adds) and the Twins cut to get to $124M? There’s a payroll discrepancy of $45M……and Preller is made out to be a genius v. Falvey……what am I missing. The Padres are 14th in MLB in spending and the Twins are about 20th or higher in MLB & the Padres are doing better with their roster……surprise?? Do we really think that with $45M more to spend in ‘24 the Twins wouldn’t be in the Playoffs? Last year Falvey got nothing but static about signing Solano & then he had a really good year and nobody said a thing, other than, don’t re-sign him……let youth have a chance! Acting like not re-signing Solano was a mistake compounded by signing Santana is nuts. Santana hit .238 but he played Gold Glove first base and he lead the Team in HR & RBI…….hardly a mistake!! Wallner had consistent playing time in April and hit .085 - had to be sent down. Julien had consistent playing time and was terrible and sent down in June/July. Kirilloff had a 117 OPS+in ‘23 and with his playing time in ‘24 he managed to hit around .208. Lee, when he was healthy enough to play, got chances at 3 different positions so he could be in the line-up regularly and he had under .600 OPS. Who signed Farmer in ‘23? Who signed Solano in ‘23? Who signed Castro in ‘23? …….he can’t make a good deal to save his life……

TWINS beat Toronto last year in the Wildcard round - right?

$98M for their full ‘24 roster (Baez & Maeda make up $39M) ………Skubal - Keith and another guy bring the total to $46M for 5 guys……everyone else makes essentially, $740K. It’s a huge leap of faith leaning into ALL young guys.

Festa has 3 pitches (needs a better change of speed pitch) - he’s got 96Mph velocity - good slider - in his debut season he was a #5 - #4 guy. With Lopez/Ryan/Ober, he’s not passing them most likely, in ‘25. He’s definitely got an opportunity to be a Top of rotation pitcher going forward though. Raya, drafted at 17, does have smaller stature. Would assume, he was probably still growing and filling out through ‘22-‘23. 5 inning start in St Paul recently at age 22. He’s going to be OK with this progression. Woods was #6 - then #5 - then all the way up to #3 down the stretch. He’s 23. His velocity is better than Ober’s, with less extension and a more traditional release point, but it was his first season in MLB. For instance, Ober was on innings limit first couple forays in the Show. I don’t think SWR’s stuff has him vaulting forward in the rotation but with experience and gained stamina, he can be a solid guy extending his successful start in ‘24.

Festa potentially to the bullpen? Waaay premature for that thinking. I agree with the World that he needs a change of speed pitch - occasional curve ball. SWR is the #4 starter in ‘25 unless he’s hurt. Festa is #5 unless he’s hurt. If they are flipped - no big deal - they are in the rotation. Would like to see Raya in long relief by September at Target to get a little experience and, obviously, help the Club. Looking at ‘26 for a possible competitive look at the Rotation. Matthews needs to develop his “in zone command” with his fastball. Gain experience with his off speed. Slider is encouraging! Would like more info on Morris’ stuff. His MiLB numbers look great but don’t know what he throws nor velocity………..he appears to have promise.

I don’t doubt that this may be a positive move. In late April he had to go……..by the All-Star break he had righted the ship & guys were striking out much less with the bat to ball approach…way better approach…….the last 6 weeks were a consistent failure. (in the middle of bat to ball they hit a Hime Run in a bunch of consecutive games) I struggle with coaching being the driver for a batter’s success…….players play. Hitters have been prone to multiple week slumps at various times through the summers for as long as there have been baseball seasons. Coaches try to create a positive mindset - a process to use as a crutch - history and strengths and weaknesses, the tendencies of opposing pitchers. Bat speed and bat to ball skills & confidence are all on the hitters. I don’t think he waved a wand after game 20 in April to get things going and I don’t think that the approach with nearly every guy in the line-up changed for the worse in mid August. Guys get dinged up - guys go 0-10 over 3 days and lose their edge - guys get mentally & physically fatigued in the dog days of August/September. I struggle with “things were great & then the coaching got bad” type of thinking. Hope new guy helps bring some success!

They went from 10 games over .500 to 17 games over .500 without Correa….. Santana on both D & O is tough to argue - the guy Posts as well!! Buxton was effective for 3 plus months after a couple lulls. Correa was definitely their most polished hitter and his D was consistently good, when he played. Jax, maybe not the MVP but he played the best……. appearance after appearance. Great mindset - great stuff!! Aggressive and competitive on the mound in every situation. Fun to watch………reminds me that at one point this year I referred to him as a guy with “wiffle ball stuff”. He’s electric!

Agree - apparently, what was anticipated/expected and how they performed against that expectation, that is the scale. Starters, on a level curve: Ober B+ …. Lopez B- ….. Ryan B ……. Festa C ……… SWR C+ …….. Matthews C- ……..Paddack C ……. Varland D- Pen is too big…….Duran C+ (1.16 WHIP - 3.64 ERA - 9 LOSSES) ……Jax A ……Sands A- ……..Alcala B- ……..rest of guys were all over the place and a bunch of it was poor. In ‘25 Lopez needs to tighten things up some - B+ would be fine! Ober and Ryan keep doing what they did, with a bit more run support & all is good. SWR just needs to continue to refine - he’s 23!! Festa has stuff - needs more durability and maybe some off speed variant pitch. Maybe a curve every 10-12 pitches. His change-up is 90 - his slider is similar speed - fastball ……..needs a “once in a while” off speed pitch. New grip change-up? Paddack - Varland - Sands could be a 3 headed middle relief bridge to Jax & Duran……..I like the two former starters in the Pen….. it could be the Team’s strength - they need one!!