JD-TWINS

Pretty negative & not much of a realistic view of the Roster in that previous comment. I’m with you on the facts & opinions!

We have plenty of LH bats……Larnach & Kirilof will be in the roster if they are healthy - no worries. Kepler - Gordon - Gallo are the other Lefty bats we have to play with as well. Walner is our LH last resort!!

Gallo in LF Gordon in CF (unless somebody has a stroke, Gordon is a full time OF) ………Farmer has IF covered. Larnach at DH Kepler in RF Kirilof at 1B If they don’t trade Kepler, this could be a routine line-up vs. RH starters. All of the games Buxton doesn’t start…….at least 35 games up to maybe 50 games. If they want to play Buxton, he’s probably the DH. They have traded for Taylor. No more searching for RH bat, nor anymore rostering of Garlick. Would love to sign Fulmer……or Chafin. Need Pen depth & we’re set!! Piggyback Ober/Maeda for a month in the 5th starter spot and then shift one of them to long relief in Pen after 5-6 weeks.

One view of potential line-ups: Against Lefties: Against Righties: Taylor - R - CF Gordon - L - CF CC - R - SS Kirilof - L - 1B Buxton - R - DH CC - R - SS Polanco - L/R - 2B Larnach - L - LF Miranda - R - 1B Buxton - R - DH Jeffers - R - C Polanco - L/R - 2B Gordon - L - LF Gallo - L - RF Farmer - R - 3B Vazquez - R - C Gallo - L - RF Miranda - R - 3B Am assuming Kepler is traded prior to start of season. Jeffers - Farmer - Taylor are all optimized vs. left handed pitching Gordon - Gallo - Larnach - Kirilof are all optimized vs. right handed pitching Miranda - Buxton - CC - Vazquez - Polanco are always going to be in line-up unless resting, regardless of pitching opponent. Buxton in CF against a lefty just moves Taylor to right to spell Gallo. Hopefully, Lewis will be around to provide Dog Days rest by end of July for Corner Outfielders as well as Polanco & CC perhaps.

It’s not all doom & gloom on offense: Gallo - career .199……. Buxton - career .244……..Larnach - .231 very limited career ………Kirilof - .250 very limited career………Taylor - career .250….,.Jeffers - career .225 (guessing) ………….Farmer - career .254……..Kepler - career .238 MLB AVERAGE BA for 2022 - .243 CC - career .279…….Polanco - career .270……..Miranda - career .261……..Gordon - career .261………Vazquez - career .274 The assumption is that Larnach & Kirilof will far out perform their numbers to date. Both inexperienced & who knows? Taylor will be platooned against LH starters and used to PH against LH pitching & late inning D!! His numbers should be above his career average as his splits against LH are much higher. Farmer will play often and will certainly be maximized against LH pitching. He’s over .800OPS against lefties for careeru

ASSUMING GOOD HEALTH: Gallo can DH - Buxton will DH - I do like Larnach getting nearly 1/2 of the DH at bats though - Miranda may see a few games here at DH for rest - same with CC. Gallo will plug the hole we need filled between RF - 1B - DH as needed. Kirilof, if healthy at 1B - Gallo if needed - Miranda against LH pitching. I believe that Gordon & Larnach have LF covered. I still see Gordon in CF against RH pitching for 50 games. Taylor has all CF starts against LH pitching, maybe 35. Buck has the other 75? No Celestino on roster - LARNACH will be on roster. Hopefully, no Pagán on roster - Ober/Maeda piggyback for first month & then one goes to long relief, 2-3 innings twice per week. This really saves others in Pen!!

I’d completely agree, essentially I do, but I have to see how he hits at DH vs. CF - can’t imagine any difference though. How the team hits - how many wins we get when he’s DHing or in CF should drive the playoff line-up choices. Maybe seems to be knit picking here but you can be sure someone in organization will have the data on these variables. The one thing that’s difficult to do is to admit we love watching Buck in CF but we don’t need him with Taylor’s World Series experience AND his 2021 Gold Glove. IMO, our need for Buxton in CF is a bit emotional. Definitely NEED him in the offensive line-up!! Potential play-off line-up v. Lefty pitcher: Vazquez - Farmer - CC - Polanco - Miranda Gordon - Taylor - Gallo/Kepler (whichever is on roster) DH - Buxton BENCH: Kirilof - Larnach - Lewis - Jeffers Also, IMO, to make room for Lewis late July……..either Kepler is traded at deadline or Gallo is traded or more likely DFA’d. If Kepler isn’t traded before season it will be fun to watch the competition with Gallo for RF innings & AB’s!

5 DAYS LATER - Changes!: Same 2 catchers P. Lopez - Mahle - Ryan - Gray - Ober Maeda - Duran - Jax - Megill - Moran - Thielbar - J. Lopez - FA signing (Fulmer - Chafin - etc.)………probably Pagán though Miranda - CC - Polanco - Kirilof - Farmer Gordon - Buxton - Gallo - Larnach - Taylor - Kepler Balance of KEY guys on the 40 man: Winder - Alcala - Varland - SWR - Henriquez Sands - Balazovic - Martin - Julien - Lewis - Lee With better starting pitching - similar offense - better Pen. If we don’t blow saves like ‘22…….rate of 27 I believe. If we only blow 12 saves, it’s gong to happen some, that’s an improvement of 15 games to 93 W’s in ‘23. Realistic?

Taylor was the Gold Glove winner in 2021. Theoretically, if Buxton didn’t play a game in CF we’d be good! Seeing an athlete make spectacular plays in the outfield is cool but having Buxton in the batter’s box is what will give the Team the most value!! He played 92 games in 2022 & that’s the MOST he’s played since 2017……….doesn’t matter why/how he got hurt - he’s often hurt. Having him play 75 games in CF & DH 60 games would be wonderful! Gordon plays Center when there’s a RH starting pitcher. He could start 55 games there. Buxton 75 games. Taylor, the 32 games vs. LH starting pitching, while Buxton is DH. Later innings - lefty in from pen to face Gallo/Gordon…….Taylor pinch hits ands stays in OF. Win/Win…….better situational offense & then better defense. Could see this happening couple times per week.

With Martin & Lewis (marketing op there for all the 80 plus retirees) being groomed as potential outfielders and with Walner & Larnach & Kirilof on the verge of performing with Big Club, I think Celestino should settle in at St. Paul and wait to be traded. Hope he improves there, don’t see a fit with the Twins. Gallo - Taylor - Kepler all gone after ‘23 or sooner? Gotta assume yes. Buxton is going to be a 50% of season in CF guy, hopefully, and another 30% at DH. This is with good health. Not having Garlick in OF is a good thing. I still see Gordon in CF for 40-50 games. Taylor starts in 35 games against Lefty starters. Late inning replacement as lefties come out of the Pen & he can PH & stay in OF. Ensures good/really good outfield play.

My comments were about Buxton & nothing to do with Mr. Lewis.

That would make sense! …….planned days off & days at DH need to come before he gets hurt not after. We want at bats from Buck!! It’s fun to see him run around in CF but we need his AB’s & production. Taking the rolls out on Friday night & to Church on Sunday morning & Bingo on Wednesday evening every week is better than having a fun spring & then keeping it in the garage the rest of the summer! We have plenty of OF - gotta have him around in the playoffs!!!

Gotta like the fact that we have 8 guys that can get outs at 3.30 - 4.00 ERA level with a couple more behind them with potential & Paddack coming in August/September. Varland - Winder in St Paul SWR & Balazovic in deep emergency St. Paul Paddack in August/September possibly Maeda in Pen Mahle - Gray - López - Ryan - Ober ……………………….. Injured in last 2 years: Maeda - Gray - Mahle - Winder - Ober - Paddack - López Lots of risk - need lots of bodies!!!

Buxton - Miranda are the RH hitting DH candidates against Lefty pitching. CC will probably get 10 games at DH throughout the year. Garlick still has a chance to make the Roster. With a little bit of success Garlick may get some DH opportunities against LH starters

Larnach - Gallo would seem to be the obvious LH batting DH candidates against a Righty. If Kepler is traded, then Gallo is in right. Larnach is at DH. Kirilof at 1B. If he’s not able to play - Gallo may be at 1st regularly. Again, Larnach is the DH. I still really think the F.O. is committed to trading Kepler with some others around him. I believe the F.O./organization will be committed to Nick Gordon as an outfielder. He starts in LF in our “A Line-up” & plays a bunch of CF against RH pitching Rocco wants Buxton to have no part of………when Buxton rests. Also, he sees action in CF when Buxton DH’s.

With the “huge promise” that Larnach has & with the signing of Gallo, the only way for Kepler to play is for Gordon to sit. Don’t know what the metrics say about Gordon? I do know he gained 25lb from January to June & he played about 100 games in the outfield last year. He was solid in LF for 65 games & in CF for about 35 games. My assumption for this year was he would play another 15 games at each position and hit at the level he did in ‘22. In 405 AB’s he had 28 doubles & 9 HR & had a .272 BA. With another 125-150 AB’s he projects out to 13-14 HR & near 40 doubles. He has decent speed. In actuality, still growing & getting stronger, since he mastered his intestinal ailment. I don’t dislike Max Kepler. I really appreciate his defense! His supposed power brought up in a couple comments only existed in 2019……see juiced ball season. I do think the “shift” elimination has the potential to help Kepler maybe as much as 20-25 points in BA. His OBP & RBI can jump with this change as well. The problem is the Gallo signing makes Kepler’s talents and his accompanying salary not a fit for the ‘23 Twin’s roster. Gordon produced in ‘22 & should be pencilled in for LF & for Buxton’s primary back up in CF. If Gallo DH’s 10% of games - plays RF 30% of the time - 20% of the time in LF - 1B 10% of the time maybe he doesn’t disrupt Larnach & Kirilof & Gordon’s development? In this scenario Kepler plays 70% of the time in RF & we see if he gets his trade value up OR if we move Gallo at the deadline. It’s possible we DFA Gallo if he’s not producing by mid- June! I still see best scenario for the organization (after the questionable signing of Gallo) is to figure out what team that’s expected to contend & may have an expendable arm & may have interest in LH batting - everyday outfielder. We can throw in guys under team control (Celestino - Jeffers - Martin) & maybe a veteran reliever with upside……..Pagan - J. Lopez. This pkg. with Kepler has to be worth something to a handful of teams - right?

Agreed - we’ll be OK. The young guys will have success taking up Arraez slack. At least two of them will be productive! Marlins were locked into Arraez! The thing that bothered me was all the talk about Arraez not being durable enough to play - no defense - not a viable long term piece - shoes easily filled with young bat in the system. Kirilof had career saving surgery on his wrist & we have no idea what he’ll do for the Club. Arraez is a .314 hitter over 4 seasons - 10 other guys in MLB hit over .300 in 2022. To think one or more of our farm system guys are going to be that kind of hitter is being awfully optimistic! I’m upbeat about some of our talent but can’t assume .300 plus hitter is just automatically going to fall into our laps. At a .366 BA with RISP in 2022 I felt he deserves more respect than, “……we can’t worry about Arraez, we have 3-4 guys almost ready………”. .”………plus, he has bad knees”. this crap as a rationalization when we aren’t sure if Kirilof will ever be able to generate enough bat speed to hit .150 going forward.

How about N. Cruz trade for J. Ryan?

Pagan - got my fingers crossed. Hopefully, another team will see his value, along with Celestino’s & Kepler’s & we make a trade!! J. Lopez - fingers crossed as well!!! Maeda to Pen makes so much sense. Megill needs some simple fix………eliminate slider……..throw a cutter at 95. Fastball at 97-98……,,,.curve around 88-90. Develop the cutter - hopefully easier to command than slider, less arm wear & tear? A cutter OR a change-up. Just needs the 3rd pitch 15% of the time. Curve 30%. Fastball 55%. Great pitch mix for him to keep guys off balance. I really thinks he’s got the biggest upside of the relievers, other than Duran.

Managing innings out of the Pen is not complex! If we’re up in a game and it’s past 15 outs/start if 6th, Maeda holds lead through the 8th!! He does that every 4-5-6 days and he’s resting our Pen, & being very effective, with his innings being controlled. He pitched in the Dodger’s Pen for parts of 2 seasons. Very effective. We could use some talent/experience down there to get to Duran without using 3 guys up.

Not without a psychologist on the mound next to him……..really good stuff, no clue mentally. Tough to watch the 0-2 & 1-2 pitches right down the middle. OR the nibbling just off the plate to walk a guy after cruising through previous batter………..up 1-2 on next guy - HR. Then he pitches 2 2/3 of good relief over next 2 outings. I get he’s going to not be sharp some days but his focus (lack of) in the middle of a sharp outing is tough to tolerate!!! Mr. J. Lopez is very similar - good stuff, no guts. Gets behind being cute & then center cuts a fastball right down broadway, as they say. HR.

If you hit .199 for your career OR if you hit.260 vs. .314 you have less of a chance to get on base ……..less of a chance to drive runs in as well. Seems straightforward. If you only strikeout 7.1% of the time you have a better chance of getting on base. Also, your ability to drive in runs increases if you strike out at near the league’s best rate of 7.1% of the time. This is evidenced by Arraez .366 BA with RISP. Tell me that doesn’t matter. Our line-ups career averages denote that if our guys are average this season we will hit .260 as a team and will have success scoring runs. Again, seems straightforward.

Maybe we take Gallo & the new kid, Salas & another prospect for another arm with control in July? At this point, if we stand pat, we need to check into trading Kepler/Gallo/Celestino & some of our excess IF talent at the dead-line. Hopefully, we don’t stop pursuing pitching!

C - Vazquez - .274 3B - Miranda - .261 LF - Gordon - .261 DH - Larnach - .238 2B - Polanco - .270 1B - Kirilof - .250? CF - Buxton - .244 RF - Gallo - .199 SS - Correa - .279 (Miss that .314 career avg of Arraez) I’d wager that if we hit .260 as a team, which seems very possible with Larnach & Kirilof getting at bats and performing over a few months, we are a top 40% of the league team in runs scored. Would have loved to trade 4 other guys and kept Arraez………one of 11 guys that hit .300 plus in ‘22. Career .314 BA! Assuming we have guys that will make Arraez departure not matter is naive. I do think we have solid potential coming!! Arraez hit .366 with RISP in ‘22 & that’s exceptional. 7.1% strikeout rate & that’s exceptional!!! Tough to directly replace.

Mahle was on IL in early July of ‘22 in Cincinnati. I live in Cincinnati ……..really wanted Twins to focus on Luis Castillo!!!!! He is worth whatever we needed to add - exactly what everyone has been saying we need ALL off-season. Did anyone catch him down the stretch or in playoffs? ACE! That said, Mahle is OK……probably similar to López, as long as he isn’t throwing too many pitches trying to strike out everybody he faces! IF he gets healthy, & others can get out to the mound, it should be a nice 2023. Mahle - López - Ober - Gray - Ryan 150 - 180 - 120 - 140 - 170 Hopeful starter innings pitched……52% of baseline year. Winder - 75 innings as starter …….Varland - 65 innings as starter ……..SWR - 60 innings as starter………..this gets us to 65% of total innings. PEN: Maeda - Jax - Megill - Duran - Moran - Thielbar - Alcala - FA ……. (Fulmer or Chafin) OR J. Lopez Winder - Varland - SWR with options in the Wings. Hopefully, we continue to pursue pitching through Spring Training! Gotta move Pagan - Celestino - Kepler & probably a guy like Martin or other IF prospect (not Lee nor Lewis). Gotta get a starter or an excellent reliever for this group!