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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    He didn’t play SS all of ‘23. My point is, Jorge has been a very good player BUT the Team doesn’t know what to expect from him, regarding health, going forward. You & 2-3 others here have refuted my comments about wanting to move him to free up salary & because of his decline over the past 2 years. Describing his career 3, 4. & 5 years ago, to me, is not a good argument. Siting a 1.15 OPS+ over past two years is a valid point but if he’s only available 55% of the time, he’s a hindrance similar to Buxton. Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff starting infield with Farmer & Miranda (or similar) as 1B back-up……….2 catchers ……..Wallner - Castro/Buxton - Kepler as regular OF & DH. One more roster spot………seems to need to be an outfielder to me - right? Trade Julien - Polanco stays………otherwise I don’t see the fit. Saying he needs to stay without laying out in one’s mind who gets bumped from the 26 man is fantasy. It’s easy to say “he’s good, we need him”. IF he’s willing & competent he would be perfect as the alternative to Kirilloff at 1B…….he’d be available to drop in at 3B & 2B & DH……….that would be great but he needs to fill that 1B roster spot.
  2. JD-TWINS
    A guy can’t be unable to play for essentially half the season & then have his stats over the last 2 months drive a decision going forward without recognizing he missed half the season! The year before he missed 10 weeks. Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff - Farmer - Miranda or RH bat alternative for 1B……..that’s the Opening Day infield……. 2 catchers………. Wallner - Castro - Kepler - Buxton - (Martin-Larnach-Gordon-FA) those are the 5 OF spots. Don’t see room for Polanco IMO. Who goes?
  3. JD-TWINS
    Clevinger for $14M - 2 years with player option for 2nd year……….131 innings in ‘23 & 3.77 ERA. Trade 3-4 pieces to Milwaukee for Devin Williams. 2 years of control at &6.25M this year. 6 deep with starters & an elite bullpen. $20M total cost. Trade Polanco to help defray the costs. Done! Odorizzi and various other scrap heap pitcher's with great upside & low costs can’t be the only plan!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Lewis/Farmer - CC/Farmer - Julien/Farmer - Kirilloff/Miranda (or somebody RH & competent) & the 2 catchers = 8 guys. Wallner - Castro - Kepler - Buxton (Larnach - Gordon - Martin - Acquisition?) …….5 guys for OF & DH. Get to roster 13 guys…….. There’s no room on the roster for Polanco IMO. Who goes, realistically???
  5. JD-TWINS
    “The only concern with Jorge is the health of his legs.” ………I see that as a really high concern!! I sited defensive stats, availability, & offensive decline as the reasons he doesn’t fit. There’s no specific ONLY to BA. The game isn’t played in the batting cage. I agree he has better pop than most - his switch hitting is attractive - great clubhouse presence with continuity on the Club…….all very nice pluses. If you can’t suit up or if you’re at 85% or if you have to ride the bench behind an ascending Julien & the DH clog, Buxton, you bring little value! His OPS+ from the IL doesn’t contribute a thing. That’s my point. Ignoring he’s started 55% of games the past two years and siting stats from 2021 and rolling that into the future is burying one’s head. I could do the same with “historical” Buxton. Everyone here would chuckle.
  6. JD-TWINS
    I think we agree? Why sign Teoscar Hernandez in Minnesota? Is he a better defender than Kepler? - No. Is he younger than Kepler? - No. Kepler at $10M - Hernandez at $23.5M Hernandez had 57 XBH with 26 of them HR’s in ‘23 - that’s with 625AB’s ……..211 K’s!!! Kepler had 48 XBH with 24 of them HR’s in ‘23 - that’s with 438AB’s…………106 K’s. Coveting Teoscar Hernandez is nuts, period. Wanting him or valuing him higher than Max Kepler is really nuts!!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Mahle was part of the “depth equation” going into the season and was making around $10M so he was part of the anticipated production
  8. JD-TWINS
    Polanco CANNOT play SS! Polanco is a definite downgrade at 3B v. Farmer. Polanco graded below Julien & Farmer at 2B in ‘23. Polanco has started 55% of the time over past 2 seasons. (as a clear starter) Polanco is a career .270 BA hitter, & has hit .235 & .255 the past two years……… productivity & availability are both sinking dramatically. Polanco’s career numbers don’t matter in sports/baseball where “what have you done lately & what are you anticipated to do going forward” are the driving force in decisions. Buxton has DH clogged - there is no scenario where he suddenly plays 60-80 games in CF. There’s nowhere to put Julien’s bat……he’s Top 10 OBP in League, he’s getting AB’s! With Polanco’s fragile health over the past 2 years, he could make $3M per year & still not be carried on this 26 man roster.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I like & respect Jorge. He’s not hit near his .270 career BA over past 2 seasons……… .235 & .255 respectively. He graded out lower on defense at 2B than both Farmer & Julien last year. Worst issue, he’s started 55% of the time (as a clear “starter”) over past 2 seasons so his availability is highly questionable. Putting salary aside, he doesn’t bring much value to the Twins at this point with 26 spots to be filled…………….salary is never put aside.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I’m not passionate about this at all but if the Twins were 17th of 30 in ‘23 in payroll, I doubt there needs to be a quote to predict them dropping 3 more spots. If they spend 15% LESS than ‘23, as predicted, they will drop a few spots. $154M in 2023 & widely assumed to have a high end ceiling of $130-$135M in ‘24……..that’s a 12-14% reduction in payroll. Pretty sure they’ll be in bottom 10 - no offense - no exaggeration.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Mitigating risk into having zero leverage in trade discussions is what happens if the club waits until deep into Spring Training to try and offer him up to the rest of baseball. 180 starts out of a possible 324 games over past 2 years………55% of the time. Career .270 hitter……hit .235 & .255 respectively over past 2 years. His skills and availability are diminishing - if he has a year or three left, the Tram needs to move on by coupling him with a couple other pieces in a trade for pitching value OR move his salary for prospects and use his salary $$ to apply to pitching help. Julien - Farmer are both healthy AND better defensively at this point on defense. Perfect platoon at the plate. There is no NEED for Polanco on this 26 man roster.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Don’t see Clevinger as a Savior but he’s got a 2 year ERA, since surgery, a bit less than 4.00. He’s a more experienced Joe Ryan in my opinion. I think, for what Twins can afford, he’s a good fit…….,some here have lumped him in with T. Bauer on off-field behavior……that seems to have been overblown after reading more about it - no charges - MLB interviewed 15 people and passed on any discipline. They gave Bauer a 324 game suspension originally. Anyway, am worried he won’t be around much longer as we continue to search for a better trade piece…….we need somebody credible. Sign him and then continue to earnestly work on pitching trade piece. Pretty easy to trade a starter if they have too many!
  13. JD-TWINS
    IMO, the 4-seam is a show pitch up or out of zone up or in & off the plate to hitters on either side. Basically, it’s a controllable pitch to change eye levels to make his sinker/slider combination to be more effective. 15% of a controllable pitch at 94-95 just off the plate can be of value.
  14. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati & it’s a real bowl of conservatism. Ownership included, which is probably no big surprise. With Bauer’s talent and the desperation the Reds have for arms to pair with their depth ridden young line-up, I would think there would have least been some conversation…..nothing reported. Seems he may have burned every bridge? He’d be a good fit in Cub’s land or Boston where people are going to come out & watch no matter who the team signs, IMO. Probably too much buzz & a distraction in NY?
  15. JD-TWINS
    Hoping Kirilloff can hit .270 with a OPS around .820, if so, he’s a great pick and a middle of the order guy with a potential OBP of .350. I really like him v. RH pitching as a stabilizing threat in the line-up. Need’s some more doubles with his gap power. Lee at 3B seems pretty logical for some time in August. Am hoping there is flexibility with Lewis! I keep thinking LF & hear it from nowhere else……..seems to make sense for ‘25! Am assuming Polanco is gone & they platoon Julien/Farmer as a solid duo at 2B through ‘24. Jenkins is an exciting guy when contrasting the buzz with guys from Orioles & other organizations when touting real promise. He seems real close to can’t miss success assuming health. A call-up by the deadline in ‘25 would be pretty fast track but he seems to be well on his way.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Getting outs is the idea! If he can continue to develop the sinker/fastball with less solid barrel contact, fantastic. 35% sinker - 40% slider - 15% changeup - 10% 4-seam sounds like a potentially nice mix for him. Hope he can get it under control & stay on the field with health as well.
  17. JD-TWINS
    In 2019 Sano had his best year hitting .246 with 34 HRS and an OPS+ of 139……,K rate of 41.8%. His OBP was 346. Walner’s first year in ‘23 had him hitting .249 with 14 HRS and an OPS + of 139……….K rate of 37.5%. His OBP was .370. Now Sano has a number of seasons that don’t reach these levels! …………the K rate % I used was K’s divided by AB’s. Walner has holes in his approach and he strikes out too much………..I just think with his youth - his advantage being a LH hitter, he has a shot at getting his K% down to around 30-32% and keep his OBP over .350……with his defense/arm and his power he’ll be a good player.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Wallner should have the opportunity to play a bunch more in ‘24………maybe 225% (near 600 PA’s) more plate appearances. Assuming he is able to hit .240 plus again, he could have 32 dingers and 25 doubles without improving at all. That would be a fantastic Sophomore season!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Gallo played left field 50 plus games and played 1B a similar amount as a LH bat to replace Kirilloff when hurt. Also, had potential to DH as LH bat……..75% of starters are right handed so Gallo was a better defensive flexibility choice than Sano and he was LH at the plate.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Alcantara, former Cy Young winner in his mid-twenties, for Vazquez & Larnach…………we would need to add another 2-3 guys, plus pay 40% of Vazquez’ salary.
  21. JD-TWINS
    We can’t come up with enough trade pieces to land Luzardo but Polanco & Rodriguez will net us Castillo????? Alcantara is young and a Cy Young winner that is just as inexpensive for the Marlins as he is for anyone else. His value, just like Robbie Ray, is down right now due to the surgeries and unknown performance/durability when coming back. The Mariners have a bunch of young arms and are lead by Castillo. They went through ‘23 & got 3 innings out of Ray. He’s not available until 2nd half of this year & he’s expensive. He’s essentially a non-contributor & not worth paying with the young depth they have on hand. They got rid of his salary - got a depth arm - got a platoon OF they can pair with Raley when he arrives from Tampa. To me Raley going to Seattle (big guy, that bats LH & plays OF) eliminates any desire they may have had for Kepler. Lopez was 3rd in baseball in strikeouts & 23rd in ERA & am assuming top 10 in innings pitched. He had two different lights out games in the playoffs. He’s a top 15 starter in the game - no doubt! Underestimated by many. IMO, Twins fans are spoiled after one year of the rotation having the best ERA. It seems everyone thinks they should have half dozen guys with ERA’s under 4.00. We’re all used to having a really good chance every day, after ‘23, based on who is starting - this is highly unusual for a rotation! I certainly think we should aspire to get as good as we can get - I love Castillo (I live in Cincinnati) & wanted a bigger push for him when Mahle was acquired…….. Don’t have any desire to trade for a guy who is out for a year in Alcantara while he will be re-habbing and HOPING to be a top flight arm again someday. Many potential paths to get better - hope we can land an arm!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure he’ll be at or north of $25M! ……don’t get me wrong, I’m in favor! 5 years for $22M - $25M - $27M - $27M - $27M with player option for year 4 & 5 to let him leave & explore the market at that point, to stroke his ego. We’ll have about an 85% chance of paying him through 5 years but he’s an awfully valuable guy. Trade Polanco….$10.5M in ‘24 freed up. Farmer gone in ‘25 - Kepler gone in ‘25 ………frees up additional $18M. Amend the budget back to $150M in ‘25 from the $135M this year with some secured broadcast deal. Don’t see the Montgomery deal happening but it seems this type of budgeting allows for a deal with Clevinger for 2yrs at $14M/yr & a player option for the 2nd year. Buxton isn’t going anywhere so the other FA signings to possibly be a DH aren’t going to fly - Julien’s best position is still DH as well. I think the “position spots” are covered internally. The only “affordable RH bat” as insurance for Miranda’s hitting, is Solano.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Lee cannot be part of this deal - understand that two fading veterans that have limited ceilings aren’t the centerpiece but their value needs to be respected! Rodriguez, along with Polanco & Kepler makes the Marlins offense respectable immediately in ‘24. Instead of Lee, possibly Miranda & Festa to get to the right total value. Two high Twins prospects (one being an arm) and 3 other guys that have had top end success at varying parts of their careers seems to be a reasonable package for a very valuable Luzardo! Would prefer to include another arm like Winder, to supplement on some level the loss of Luzardo, & keep Kepler.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Get your point - however, the team that won it all went out & got Scherzer & Montgomery at the deadline and had deGrom out with a year long injury. Lots of respect for pitching! The teams that field the best rosters AND are playing well at the end of the year are the teams in the mix. The Braves had to be near the top of runs scored and they WATCHED a lot of playoff baseball. My point is year to year, the end of regular season statistical positions don’t necessarily yield the Champion. Pitching can dominate in postseason play - that’s not a mystery nor anything new. IN the playoffs, the TWINS gave up a key homer from Thielbar that lead to a “low scoring” loss. Gray stunk it up in his start v. Astros. Ober dug the team a hole in his start, nothing terrible but a tone was set. Lopez - Paddack - Varland - Jax - Stewart - Duran all looked very good over the 2 postseason Series. Runs are always great but if one doesn’t control the other team’s offense it’s difficult to win games in a short series.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Since Buxton has played more than 100 games ONCE in 9 seasons, it’s a stretch for us here to think he’ll “get back to 120 game form”. That said, I’ve suggested 2-3 times he could play CF 35-40 games and at DH another 75-80 games in ‘24. Fingers crossed. Not sure how real it is for him to have health entering the season and then an even lower percentage for him to stay healthy enough to start 75% of the games. My slant here is an educated guess as well for August 31 of 2025……… I think we trade Rodriguez as part of a deal for a pitcher between now & then. Guessing Larnach & Miranda don’t make it either. Starters at the deadline in ‘25: Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff on the dirt - Jeffers as catcher……Lewis - Jenkins - Wallner in the grass & Buxton as the DH. Vazquez - Martin - Severino - Castro on the bench. Will be fun to re-visit in another 18-20 months!
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