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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Agreed! Don’t understand the negativity when there are 8 guys with ability trying to make the Team after Stewart - Thielbar - Jax - Duran Canterino, later in the summer will be in the mix……..Topa - Weiss - Staumont - Funderburk - Alcala - Okert - Jackson ………probably missed a couple guys? Canterino & Varland added to the mix in September & October seems to really take the Pen over the Top & dominant!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Would expect duplication of ‘22 for Lopez……185-190 innings. Seems there shouldn’t be any back up in innings between Ober & Ryan though. Ober threw 167 last year including AAA & took some time off late. I fully expect 165 innings from him without serious injury. I took a look and Ryan threw 5.45 innings per start in his Rookie Year in ‘22 and wore down after getting in 27 starts. In ‘23 he threw 5.55 innings per start and that was pitching through a leg injury…….in 29 starts he got to 161 innings while being out 3 weeks or so. Fully expect a minimum of 165 innings from Joe as well. Can Paddack keep his ERA below 4.25 & throw 110 innings? If he does, he’ll be better than Maeda was in ‘23 in both totals. Varland/DeSclafani/Festa/SWR should be able to provide 240 innings between them……….maybe, 90/90/40/20 innings respectively. This totals to 970 innings or 67% of the innings……..guessing that’s a little higher than average or at least league average? I think Twins Pen will be very solid but I don’t think they’ll get overworked with this rotation. The depth will really help if there’s an injury or two AND when the Pen gets overworked in a short window of 3-5 days, we can pull somebody up to fill in from St. Paul.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Beating my drum for an alternative thought: 3.77 ERA - 131 innings in ‘23 - 24 starts in ‘23 - 3.45 career ERA over 7 seasons……….,245 innings over last 2 years after arm surgery in ‘21. 9-9 for lowly White Sox in ‘23. 2 years at $15M/yr. - available. Trade DeSclafani with other piece (reliever) to someone like Baltimore (urgent need for starter with rotation injuries) to free up his salary……..,would have to move some or most of the $$ that came with him to the receiving team. Worthwhile? Seems more of a real, lower risk option to Bauer.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Vazquez weak offense - who the 13th guy is on the roster will not derail the Team’s season. Julien - Lewis - Kirilloff - Correa - Kepler - Wallner - Buxton - Jeffers - Farmer - Castro…….10 core guys for offense. A couple may slide back a bit but everyone doesn’t have career years at once and everyone doesn’t regress at once. Some predictions are too high & some too low. There will be surprises. Obvious stuff, but not thinking this group can hit well enough to get deep in playoffs is just being negative. Fingers crossed on health!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    The details here make perfect sense! Varland & Canterino are 99% “starters” at the beginning of the year. By July/August this may change based on innings thrown by starters in the Show and how well the Pen is performing. Both could be weapons in September & October from the Pen. Alcala - Weiss - Staumont - Funderburk battling for the last spot out of Spring Training is a pretty good situation! Not as sold on Staumont as others here. Seems he wouldn’t have been floating around if he were as solid or has as high end potential as is represented here quite often. Wish him well!
  6. JD-TWINS
    As soon as Kepler needs a day off - gets hurt or isn’t rostered in ‘25 RF is definitely Wallner’s spot!!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Polanco played 80 games and 104 games in ‘23 & ‘22. Not exactly a stellar last couple years to point to in regards to availability & productivity. Polanco didn’t play 1B. Santana played 146 games in ‘23 & hit 23 HR’s. Top end defensive first baseman….that’s real. He hits LH pitching well & fits as a great platoon with Kirilloff. He’ll be available whenever needed. Do not see a problem with him.
  8. JD-TWINS
    He plays full time only if Kirilloff or maybe Wallner gets hurt & Kirilloff goes to left……pretty doubtful. Good news is he posts all season essentially since 2014. Good insurance.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Seriously, you think the space in RF at Target is magic? Don’t know what happened to Hunter in Detroit - he should have been more than capable to play RF anywhere. Kepler is borderline Gold Glove year after year in RF - what is the point of moving a guy who’s played great RF for most of a decade to another spot? Logic there? Have you heard anyone else think that Kepler should move to LF? Wallner is fine in left - he needs to get better at throwing to the right spot, under control & not just throw hard to the infield because it’s cool to throw hard. He’s got good speed and can handle the task at an average level at worst. Weakening two positions just doesn’t fly in my mind. RF is 10’ closer in the RF alley and the RF corner than LF. It also has a 23’ tall wall (v. 8’ wall in LF) and there are certainly nuances to playing the ball off that wall and Kepler does it really well. Nobody’s considering moving him IMO.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Rookies for offense in ‘23 along with Polanco? Maybe along with Kepler? Kepler one of 5 guys in the game to hit .300 plus BA with 30 or more XBH in the 2nd half of ‘23. Pen chosen by FanGraphs to be best in AL in ‘24.
  11. JD-TWINS
    ????…..respectfully, No. Kepler isn’t going anywhere in ‘24. He catches everything that can be caught. Solid arm. No debate. Move Wallner to RF and then wonder who will play LF? Sit Kepler? Torii Hunter was a Gold Glove CF for years….hope he could play RF at an OK level.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Don’t see this as a good fit for twins because they have to pay Buxton & am pretty sure he’ll have to DH for 80 games or more. How about J.D. Martinez for somebody? He’s got to be the Poster child for how screwed up WAR is!!! (or can be) In ‘23: He hit 33 HR - 62 XBH - 103 RBI in only 432 AB’s - .271 BA & a 134 OPS+ 1.9 WAR ……..how does that work?? Realize, no defensive contribution & little speed but a 1.9 WAR with those offensive stats????? An Extra Base Hit every 6.9 at bats. Really good!
  13. JD-TWINS
    IMO, a few years = 3 at a minimum……seems Twins lose leverage each year. I could see an escalating payment schedule but it doesn’t make sense for him to accept less if he has to bare the career risks “the next few years” Maybe 10 years for $200 with payments of: $4M - $10M - $16M - $24.25M for 7 more years. Big commitment overlapping ($24M) Correa for 2 years or more. Could give him option to get out each year after year 7. Discounted to the Twins due to his health concerns and the escalating pay approach. Lewis eliminates risk to him……..flexibility at age 32. Something like this may be reasonable but it’s hard to pull the trigger without at least 3-4 months of steady play/health in ‘24.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Still paying Scherzer & Verlander is part of their issue for ‘24. They need to spend on Alonso. ………plenty of $$$ so I expect things will change after ‘24 as new GM gets settled.
  15. JD-TWINS
    The Team would have to pay Scherzer/Verlander/deGrom $$ for a one year deal……..that’s $40-$50M/yr. Makes no sense. With injury history Snell has, it doesn’t even make sense for him……….he may paint himself in a corner going forward with injuries in ‘24 on a one year deal. No big $$ FA wants to sign, nor should consider, a one year deal. Could do it similar to Correa’s deal but all the power is in the ”player options” in that case.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Same with Clevinger, as an aside, since I saw Colorado, Nationals, Red Sox, Pirates as his best options……..I get Boston but the others don’t paint a rosie ‘24!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Ober got 3 runs or less in 14 of his starts. He was 8-6 with an ERA of 3.43 (Top 20 ERA in baseball) didn’t get to 150 innings so not in that discussion nationally - he got to 144 innings and threw 23 innings at AAA. He is not a middle of the road starter. Ryan, until he pulled a leg muscle & was too stupid to let anyone know, was on track to be on All-Star team. Are they Pablo Lopez upside - nope. Can’t have the lowest Rotation ERA in AL with just Sonny Gray’s numbers though. Polanco played 80 games and struggled through nearly 10 starts at 3B & DHed a few games………don’t see a loss there in productivity …….just a sentimental loss. Team’s record in Gray & Maeda’s starts was at best 21 - 26. Maeda threw 106 innings with a 4.23 ERA……..Paddack can match or better Maeda’s numbers. Who looked better in the Playoffs last fall between Maeda & Paddack? Taylor hit .220 with a ton of strikeouts. Decent power & nice defense. Buxton/Castro can cover CF if Buxton only starts 40 games. Buxton & Correa have to be a bit better than ‘23 with some decent upside. Lewis - Julien - Wallner each getting 500-550AB’s v. 1/2 that number in ‘23…..that’s a plus. Anticipated (per FanGraphs, not me) to have the best Pen in the AL. Topa-Okert-Alcala-Funderburk can cover Pagan’s contributions with expected upside! Santana/Kirilloff creates a solid platoon at 1B! No Gallo - No Gordon - No Miranda eating up AB’s and not performing……….addition by subtraction!
  18. JD-TWINS
    FanGraphs has the Twins Pen as best in the AL. Starters wins last year are these, respectively: Lopez-Maeda-Gray-Ober-Ryan-Varland-Mahle 11 - 6 - 8 - 8 - 11 - 4 - 1 = 49 wins from the core starters……Bullpen is a big key to Team’s success, the & one independent source above, before Okert was acquired, thinks Twins have #3 Pen in the game & #1 in the AL. That’s big!
  19. JD-TWINS
    The trade for Carlton was first thing I thought of - a little vengeance involved in that trade from the Cardinal’s Ownership but Wise was a good pitcher…….faded over following years, maybe it’s a year 10 comparison???
  20. JD-TWINS
    Thielbar will be the higher leverage LH, if healthy. Okert will probably displace Funderburk out of Spring Training since Funderburk has multiple options. 70 innings is an every other day guy……..even if in the staff all year that’s a lot of relief innings. Part-time in the Show…….25-40 innings seems to be a reasonable change. I like Funderburk a bunch - hope he competes well next month and earns a spot for Opening Day. Doubtful though after the Gordon trade.
  21. JD-TWINS
    So, IMO, Lee is in St Paul until his bat forces him across the river (hopefully not an injury!) ………. June - July - August. The Team toys with things the remainder of the season to see if they can get all the bats in the line-up. Seems to me Kirilloff is at 1B for a few years - Julien, likewise is principally at 2B - Lee is the best long-term guy at 3B - CC is at SS for 2-3 more years minimum. Lewis is plenty good enough athlete to float defensively ……also good enough to play LF without getting hurt. 2025: Lewis in LF for 80 games - DH for 30 games - 1B for 30 games. Wallner in RF……maybe Larnach or Rodriguez in LF and RF depth…………..maybe Lewis finds a home at 1B & Kirilloff goes back to LF? ‘25 line-up: Julien - Lee - Kirilloff - Lewis - Buxton - Correa - Wallner - Jeffers - numerous DH options, maybe even Miranda after a good season in ‘24? ……..on paper, in February ‘24, this looks like a September/October ’24 line-up
  22. JD-TWINS
    …….,not trying to beat this to death but sometimes addition by subtraction is an improvement as well. No Gallo flailing - No Miranda flailing - No watching Jorge Lopez grin after he walked 2 guys and gave up a HR……..3-4 different times - as much as it pains me to point out (a fan) No Nick Gordon stinking it up for 6 weeks out of the gate in ‘24 - No Moran looking great & then walking 2 guys with 2 outs and giving up runs allowing only one single OR starting an inning (while ahead by 1 or 2) with a walk. Just average performance in the replacement of these guys is a real positive for probable W’s, IMO.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Nationally, who hypes the Twins??? Lewis was part of the plan going into ‘23 with some mild optimism coming off 2 years of ACL tears. Wallner was a maybe call-up & expected to be a middling player. Julien was interesting after the World Baseball Event, big maybe? Now the #1 - #3 - #7 guys in the line-up 70% of the year this year. Not hope nor hype. They can all play. Expecting Buxton to contribute more with good health - 40 CF starts & 70 starts at DH - CC hitting 22 HR & .255 BA should be reasonable from the #6 spot in the line-up. Paddack, is better than Maeda at this point in their careers. Maeda threw 106 innings last year……gotta be able to match that. Gray is gone - Team was 15-18 in his starts in ‘23. He had an OK 5 inning start & win v. Toronto (picked a guy off 2B to escape a jam) & a poor outing v. Astros. Can Varland - Festa - DeSclafani go .500 - that’s the question…I think they can and it’s not hope based. Bullpen was picked to be Best in the AL by FanGraphs before they picked up Okert. Seen as #3 Pen in the game. Kirilloff/Santana at 1B should be a solid platoon! I like their chances because I believe in the talent not because I hope they win a lot because I have a Twins hat. Not sure how the Team hasn’t improved?
  24. JD-TWINS
    Wallner & Julien both had OBP’s of .370 plus……they’ll both be around for 500-550 AB’s instead of 250 AB. Assuming these guys are both going to suck is not reality. Too talented. Miranda has a great chance of not seeing Minneapolis all year……in a uniform.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Having a long guy, with 7 other more specific role guys, allows the Team to rest 2/3 of relievers in a night. i.e. Ober goes 5 1/3 and it’s 2-2………..Thielbar or whoever comes in and gets out of inning. Long guy goes 6th-8th……if ahead Duran comes in for the 9th. If they are down, somebody gets an inning of work in the 9th. Jax/Stewart/Topa/whoever get the night off. Seems there is value in this approach. Probably more likely if they are up 3 or down 2-3 runs. In a tight game the Team probably uses all high leverage guys.
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