LA Vikes Fan

Would love to get Moore and/or Lopez. Unfortunately, I think the waiver claim order is reverse order by record and I think at this point it's both leagues. The Twins have the worst record of any presumed playoff team but I got to think that a wild-card contender is going to grab these guys or at least Cleveland will grab them to avoid us getting them. Grichuk might be interesting but he has kind of sucked with the Angels. The earlier poster was right though, he certainly would be an upgrade over Jordan Luplow. I want no part of Giolitto. He can't help us this year, he completely stunk for the Angels, and he won't be back next year. Same for Hunter Renfroe. Decent stats but talk about empty calories, doesn't play much defense, can't run, rarely hits in the clutch, not much better than what we have. Grab Moore or Lopez if he can get them, Moore in particular. Think about Grichuk if he's available. The rest are not worth anything.

I think you're overthinking this. Ober needs a rest. He's already pitched 30 more innings than his previous career high ever - including college - 30 more than any year since 2014. The problem is you can't carry him on the 26 man and just not pitch him at all. You're playing a man short at a critical time. Conversely, they can send him down to AAA with orders not to pitch him for 7-10 days and then ramp him back up in the bullpen. I suspect that he is the #4 playoff starter behind Ryan and will start the playoffs in the bullpen. He'll be back in Minnesota around 9/10-9/15 and he will be on the playoff roster. Yes, he could have gone on the IL but he isn't really injured and then you lose him for 15 days minimum. This was the right call for the Twins. It does suck for Ober because it smacks of a demotion. Media reports say that the strategy was explained to him and he is on board. Hopefully they also told him his name is in pen in the 2024 rotation. By the way, the man has a 5.52ERA/1.55WHIP since the ASB. Frankly, he could easily have ben demoted for baseball reasons with Keuchel taking his place (can't believe I actually just typed that but it's true). This way the demotions is to protect him. Easier medicine to swallow.

Thanks, Very helpful.

Question - if you're on the 40 man roster but not the 26 man MLB roster, can you be put on the playoff roster? I thought that was only doable as an "injury replacement" player with the replaced player going on the 10 day or 15 day IL. I might be remembering older rules. So, for example, SWR is on the 40 man but hasn't been on the 26 man all year. Can he be arbitrarily dropped into a playoff roster to replace a healthy player or does someone have to go on IL for him to be able to be on the roster? Another example - let's say Varland doesn't come up from AAA the rest of the season. Can he be put on the playoff roster without a pitcher going on IL for 15 days? Just trying to figure out if it matters who's on the 26 man MLB roster at midnight 9/1 or only who's on the 40 man roster. By the way, Martin is not on the 40 man but Gallo and Luplow are. Just sayin....

The Luplow experiment should be over. He can't hit. Also, he is in an option year so we can send him down to AAA without losing him if we keep him on the 40 man, in case anyone thinks there's a reason to keep him, and he isn't likely to make a postseason roster once everyone is back. I would send him down now (or after the Cle series since they're pitching RH starters), and bring up Martin or whoever the FO thinks is best. Do it before 9/1 so that the player is prost-season eligible in case we catch lightning in a bottle and Martin turns out to be another Julien.

Be careful here. Just remember that: Chuck Norris does in fact use a stunt double, but only for crying scenes. Chuck Norris doesn't flush the toilet, he scares the crap out of it. Superman wears Chuck Norris pajamas.

This article didn't age very well with Winder and Sands' performance the last 2 days. Still think he's right though.

I really like this plan. Varland should be in the bullpen today or maybe, this weekend since he pitched Tuesday. No more starts in St. Paul, he does the rest of his 2023 work out of the MLB bullpen. I agree that we need a RH hitting OF with more upside than Luplow (who has almost no upside) and it would be great if he could play CF to avoid having to play Gallo there like we are tonight. I think Martin is the way to go although I think Castro will be the choice. I would move Ober to the BP but would wait until we are past the rest of this tougher stretch. I would rather have Ober start Sunday than Keuchel, for example, since I think any good team will work Keuchel over. I also would not start Keuchel against Cleveland. Once we are past Tex and Cle we can move Ober to the pen to get him used to it and Keuchel can get his starts against lesser teams.

I think Maeda is a solid #4, Plus #5, but not a #3 or higher on a competitive team. He doesn't pitch enough innings adn he's not consistent enough to be a #3 or higher. He's in the $12-15m a year range. Sonny Gray is like Chris Bassit last year. Bassit got 3 years $63m, for his age 34-36 season. Gray is 33. Gray can probably get something like that so the QO makes perfect sense. If he takes it, you're paying him roughly market without the long commitment. If he doesn't you avoid the commitment to guy on his last contract. Maeda is 35. He's much closer to the 35 year old Kyle Gibson who got a one year $10m contract in the last off season. This year, Gibson is 13-7, 4.89 ERA/3.84 FIP. Salaries do tend to go up year to year though, and I actually think Maeda is a little better bet than Gibson. I think Maeda could and will get 2 guaranteed years, but not 3. My guess is 2 years, $22-25M but I might be a little low. I could see a team giving him 2 years, up to $30m. Still a lot less than a 1 year $20m plus contract on the QO. I think Gray gets the QO and rejects it, and I think Maeda goes for 2 years guaranteed at $25m or a little less. I would make those deals if I were the Twins.

That's for sure. Coming from someone who lives in LA, I get to see the whole spectrum from the truly well run Dodgers to the truly inept and perhaps even cursed Angels. Trust me, things could be a lot worse.

Love this and love the idea of one year $7-10m with a second year option, but I don't think either gets it done. I think Maeda has more value than that on the market, particularly since his old team - the Dodgers - will be looking for a veteran back end starter next year. I think it's more like 2 guaranteed years at somewhere between $11-14m a year, maybe 2024 a little more and 2025 a little less. Something like 2 years, $22-25m with 60% in 2024, 40% in 2025 so he can transition to the bullpen in 25 if we don't need him as a starter. I would do this in a heartbeat if he's healthy. Hope they re-sign Maeda. Gray is gone next year and Paddack is a real question mark coming off his second TJ surgery. The track record for guys with 2 TJs isn't any where near as good as it is for guys with one. Next year's starting pitching group then would be Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Maeda, and Paddack or Varland with the other in AAA as #6. Still a strong group with some depth. Hope SWR and/or Festa or Raya can step up to the #7 and #8 spots. Use the FA money on bullpen help and RH hitting 4th OF who can play a better than average CF.

Assuming we get to the playoffs, you're absolutely right. Sands, Winder, Ortega, etc. will never pitch in a non-blowout playoff game and probably won't even be on the playoff roster. This is a regular season problem only. I'd still like to see them give Varland a shot in the pen and maybe the same for Funderburk. Might help us in the regular season and should help us get a better read for next year.

I agree that it's the last month that gives one hope that Martin could contribute at the MLB level. Unfortunately we can't just add him on 9/1 because the Twins are going to need those two extra spots and more for Buxton, Castro, and Kirilloff when they come off the IL. You have to lose one of Luplow or Gallo just to get all 3 of those guys back on the expanded roster. To get Martin up, you have to lose both Gallo AND Luplow unless someone else gets hurt and goes on the IL.

Looking at the 4 trades and what we would have had to give up, it's hard to get excited about making any of those trades. Hicks and Sewald would have been good gets, but come with hefty price tags. The rest seem pretty meh. We also have to remember that KC was unlikely to trade a longer term asset like Barlow in the division and I question whether Seattle would help out our bullpen since we are likely first round playoff opponents. Looking at this, it becomes a little more understandable why we didn't trade for bullpen help at these prices. I also agree with Hosken, the playoff bullpen if we get there will have at least 1 of the current starters and probably 2 if you consider Keuchel a starter. My guess its that Maeda and Kuechel go into the pen, the former as a setup man, the latter as long man or piggyback guy with Ober. I'd still like to see them bring up Varland NOW nd see if he can be an effective late inning reliever. I think he can.

Interesting analysis. I think you did a great job. It will be even more interesting to see what if anything the FO does about the back end of the bullpen going forward. This is no bullpen to bring to a playoff series. I hope they at least bring up Varland to the bullpen, maybe Funderburk, and add Maeda or Ober to the pen as the playoffs arise (if we make them). Also be great if Stewart came back but that's looking less and less likely.

We need a CF for 2024 and a better RH hitting OF for 2023. I think our highest and best hope in 2024 should be that Buxton plays 80ish games in the OF next year and another 50 at DH. That means we will need another player to be a half to 2/3 time starting CF. I frankly think we have that guy in Max Kepler which would really open things up for OFs because it's easier to find corner OFs that a decent CF. Unfortunately, Kepler apparently doesn't want to play CF on any sort of regular basis. Maybe we can find way to tie playing CF to exercising his option and that can be the short term solution. Assuming Max isn't the answer, and frankly thinking more long term, we will need a CF in 2024. We also need to replace Luplow as the RH hitting OF in 2023 as it is becoming more clear why the Blue Jays cut him, and why TB, Cle, and AZ cut him before that - he can't hit. For 2024, Taylor has actually been a decent short term guy but he's 32 and really is a 4th or 5th OF on a good team. I don't see Lewis going back out there after getting hurt last year. We can rail about that all we want but it ain't happening so let's looks at something closer to a possible reality. There's really 3 choices for 2024 other than a free agent, Taylor again, Castro or Gordon as a full/part time CF, or go to Martin or Keirsey now at AAA. The last prospect excites me IF we could get Martin or Keirsey some ABs this year to see where they're at versus MLB pitching. The problem is that we can't unless w make a roster change. We can only add 2 guys on 9/1 and we need space for at least 3 guys coming back from injury - Castro, Buxton, and Kirilloff. It will take dropping a current MLB player to get them on the roster (Gallo? Luplow?) and that's without adding a pitcher. There just isn't any easy way to add another AAA player unless there's an injury or we are willing to drop two of Gallo, Luplow, Farmer, or Solano. My solution? Bring up Martin before 9/1 to replace Gallo or Luplow. I really don't care which although I don't see the Twins dropping Gallo until they absolutely have to. I would see if Luplow is willing to stay with the team if/when he clears waivers. If he is, he's the one. If he's not, well, he's still the one. Luplow is falling off the table at the plate and looking a whole lot more like even less than his career .214/.315/.429 (.744) career slash line. In his last 7 games he's got 18 ABs and is hitting .111/.200/.333. All of this when he almost exclusively plays against LH pitching. He's 30 on 9/26. He's not on next year's team and not a future player on any sort of contending team. I would bring up Martin now. Play Martin now in CF against LH pitching and, if we can play the back half of September without pressure, he's plays every day to rest guys. Sets us up for 2024 and beyond without hurting us much now. I have to think Martin can hit some, I know he can run some, and I'd wager that he can at least come close to meeting or exceeding the Luplow threshold. We have a unique opportunity now to test/expose/develop young talent at the MLB level while still winning the division. Let's take that opportunity now. By the way,. all of this also applies to putting Varland and Funderburk in the bullpen TODAY but that's a topic for another thread. . .

Gman is right on Buxton. I think our highest and best hope should be that Buxton Plays 80ish games in the Of next year and another 50 at DH. That means we will need another player to be a half to 2/3 time starting CF. I frankly think we have that guy in Max Kepler which would really open things up for OFs because it's easier to find corner OFs that a decent CF. Unfortunately, Kepler apparently doesn't want to play CF at least not on a regular basis. Maybe we can find way to tie playing CF to exercising his option and that can be the short term solution. IF that doesn't work, and frankly thinking more long term, we will need a CF. Taylor has actually been a decent short term guy but he's 32 and really is a 4th or 5th OF on a good team. I don't see Lewis going back out there after getting hurt last year. We can rail about that all we want but it ain't happening so let's looks at something closer to a possible reality. There's really 3 choices for 2024 other than a free agent, Taylor again, Castro or Gordon as a full/part time CF, or go to Martin or Keirsey now at AAA. The last prospect excites me IF we could get Martin or Keirsey some ABs this year to see where they're at versus MLB pitching. The problem is that we can't. We can only add 2 guys on 9/1 and we need space for at least 3 guys coming back from injury - Castro, Buxton, and Kirilloff. It will take dropping a current MLB player to get them on the roster (Gallo? Luplow?) and that's without adding a pitcher. There just isn't any easy way to add another AAA player unless there's an injury or we are willing to drop two of Gallo, Luplow, Farmer, or Solano. My solution? Bring up Martin before 9/1 to replace Gallo or Luplow. Don't care which although I would see if Luplow is willing to stay with the team if/when he clears waivers. If he is, he's the one. Whichever one goes now, the other goes when the 3 Il guys are ready. Play Martin now in CF against LH pitching and, if we can play the back half of September without pressure, he's plays every day to rest guys. Sets us up for 2024 and beyond without hurting us much now.

You have to limit his innings. The injury risk is too great. I recall reading that the stats are that innings increases for starters should be limited to 20-25% year to year. After that, the stats show that the risk of a major injury goes way up. I can't find the article now so someone please correct me if I'm wrong on the numbers. Ober is already at about a 25% increase over his 108 innings pitched in 2021 and at a more than 50% increase over his 88 innings in 2022. those totals are minor and MLB innings combined. I expect them to try to limit him to 165-170 innings max, and maybe even 150-160. Given that he should have roughly 6-7 starts left in the remaining 36 games, I expect that he will be limited through this next rough stretch and then maybe even shut down for the last part of September if we are eliminated or clinch. If it's still a race, I can see him getting 5-6 starts but being limited to 5-6 innings a start.

Agreed. I'm actually pretty excited about the way the team has embraced a youth movement this year. This is the year to turn over the roster and still win the division with all of the other Central teams being so pathetic. The one place the youth movement hasn't worked is the bullpen. Sands, Winder, Balazovic, and Headrick all haven't really worked out. I'd really like to see them try to finish the evaluation/prepare for 2024 job with 2 guys - Funderburk and Varland. Put both in the bullpen now instead of Winder and Sands. I think Funderburk could be a decent 6th inning type guy and Varland has the stuff to be a lights out late inning guy. Varland can go back to starting next season, this doesn't have to be permanent. He could really help us this year in the stretch and playoffs if given a chance in the bullpen. We have little to lose given Winder and Sands' performance so far. I would call up Varland, send down Winder, either start Varland Sunday against the Rangers or start Ryan if he's ready (drop Sands), and then keep him up to work out of the bullpen for the rest of the year unless he bombs in that role. Keuchel goes to the BP as the "long man"/second leftie or goes for Funderburk. Ortega could also be dropped for Funderburk. Could help us now and definitely will help us make decisions over the winter and get set for 2024. I think if this year's team could win the division and win a playoff series it would count as a great season/a big win. The real contention window opens in 2024. Let's get ready now by playing the guys we expect to be the big contributors next season. We're doing that everywhere else, time to include the bullpen.

Agreed. At $10m for 2024, Kepler is a bargain if he's the post June 6 version, overpaid if he's the 2022 version, and about right in the most likely event that he's a combination of those two versions. There also isn't likely to be anyone better at that price point for 2024, especially when adding in his defensive value. Also, there isn't anyone pushing for his spot unless Larnach or Gordon is mor than they've shown so far. Martin may be in the mix and pushing for a spot by mid 2024 but probably not out of the gate, Castro is a 4th or 5th OF/UTL, Gordon is probably on another team next year, and Prato is intriguing but also most likely a mid 2024 guy. I think Kepler stays on the option in part because he's been worth it since June of this year, and also in part because we don't have anyone knocking hard enough on the door to replace him. I think the Martin and/or Prato may give the FO the confidence it needs to trade Larnach and/or Gordon, but not enough to lose Kepler.

Probably our best defensive lineup. Hope we can score 3 runs or more with this group.

Agree, if Kirilloff is coming back. If he isn't, then putting Buxton in LF may make some sense with Julien and/or Polanco playing 1B.

Great analysis, thanks for that. I think his more aggressive approach is also true of some of the other Twins hitters. I wonder if that's the approach change that is helping the offense - more of a "look for a pitch in a particular zone and swing early in the count" mindset. I see the same approach with Julien, Jeffers, Polanco, and Lewis. Now it doesn't work for a guy like Gallo, but for the better hitters it is the best approach. Good to see.

That is a tough call. It depends a little on how confident you are that players now in AAA or who have only performed for limited periods will do next year. Castro is what he is; his numbers this year are right in line with his career number except that Rocco of all people turned him loose and now he's a dangerous base stealer. Having said that, I think Polanco is better at the bat and in the field. Gordon looked good for half of 2022; otherwise he's been injured or not very good. Farmer can't hit (not even LG H pitching this year) and is 31. Miranda has been good - 2022- and injured/bad - 2023. Parato, Lee, Severino, et al., all minor leaguers at this point. Gordon is a half season wonder and I think is on a new team in 2024 unless he can find a way to make the team as the 5th OF. I would keep both Polanco and Castro to start 2024. I see Polanco as a IF UTl playing mostly 1B and 2B, but able to play 3B at an average(ish) level. I think his bat and clutch hitting makes him important to have around. Castro is our 4th OF/backup CF. Parato is an OF and he and Severino start 2024 at AAA. The tough two for me are Miranda and Farmer. There's room for one - two if you dump Polanco but I think he's better than either of them in the field (Miranda) or at the plate (Farmer). I'm rooting for Miranda to come back and be the 6th IF behind Correa, Kirilloff, Lewis, Julien and Polanco, but I could see making him re-prove himself in AAA after this season and keeping Farmer's glove around. Still, I'd like to see Miranda, Gordon, or even Lee make the team over Farmer. I do think we will see Miranda, Lee, Severino, and Prato with the Twins in 2024, probably in that order. I just don't think we will or should see them out of the gate. I think the team does a new 2 year 12-14 million deal with Polanco. He is tradeable with that contract if he's healthy and one of the younger guys breaks out, and is great depth to have at the MLB level. His contract isn't too onerous if he spends another season on the IL. it's away to have our cake and eat it too - protect ourselves from relying on guys who aren't ready while having a tradeable asset if we get a breakout from the others. And this all assumes that Julien, Lewis, Correa and Kirilloff are healthy. If they aren't we gotta have Polanco as Lewis moves to SS.

Guys, I really don't understand this desire to get rid of Polanco. Let's start with the basics. We need 6 infielders in 2024, 2 of whom can play SS. It's 6 IFs, not 1 IB, 1 2B, etc. All of them can and should be relatively interchangeable at 1B, 2B, and 3B. That's the way you ride out injuries, slumps, platoon advantages, etc. and remain competitive. That's modern baseball. That's the way this team is being built. Ok, who are those 6 next year for the Twins? Correa, Lewis, Julien, and Kirilloff are locks. I don't see Kirilloff in lF, we have enough OFs. That leaves you Polanco, Farmer, Solano, and Miranda, and a bunch of now AAA guys in Lee, Severino, and maaaybe Austin Martin although I think he's an OF in the majors. Castro? More of a super utility/OF than an IF. Same for Gordon. Now rank them for 2024. Polanco is clearly #1. He hits better than Farmer, fields better than Solano or Miranda, and is more versatile in the IF than either of them. Lee? Severino? They both need to tear up AAA first, and they both just got there. Could they be mid-season call ups? Absolutely, but not before then. Is it Polanco's salary? Well, it's an option so pay the freight for 1 year or maybe give him a 2 year deal at around 7m AAV. The Twins have a lot of low salaried players now so the overall payroll can handle that easily and still fortify the pitching staff with FAs. It's just hard to see a rationale for losing Polanco other than wanting Lee or Severino up all year. Hard to see the sense in creating uncertainty with an unproven player when you have a good to very good veteran for that spot. Next year's IF group is Correa, Julien, Lewis, Kiriloff, Polanco, and either Miranda (my bet) or Farmer coming out of ST. Solano is 35 and gone next year. Gallo is way gone. Julien and Polanco take a lot of 1B reps in the offseason and ST next year and they plus Miranda are the alternative to Kirilloff at 1B, not Solano or Gallo. That is a solid to very good group who can all field at least competently with the possible exception of Julien and have all shown that they can hit in the top 6 spots in an MLB lineup. Julien will be better at D next year with more reps and work, maybe even average. He stays for his bat and you find him a place to play. Keep Polanco next year. I see no one as good or better to replace him at least at the start of the season and there isn't a good reason to lose him.