Great piece and interesting discussion. Trying to piece a few clues together, it seems in the past when the PTBL is just a throw in, you hear the beat writers report that the player is nothing special. We’ve not heard that with this PTBL, so it should be something. Couple that with the Rosenthal comments of the value being “2 million plus”, and it’s definitely worth trying to parse out who it might be. Looking on the Baseball Trade Values site, here are some listed values:
Susana RHP 2.9 (Keith Law: honorable mention)
Gasser LHP 2.4 (Keith Law: #9)
Acosta SS 2.4 (Law #11)
Rosario 2B 2.4 (Law#15)
Lizarraga RHP 1.9 (Law#14)
Kopps RHP 1.9 (Law#19)
Morejon is 6.6 and is listed on the Padres 40-man roster, so I don’t see how he could be the guy.
Rosenthal also suggests they are selecting from a group of players. Now, maybe the Padres gave them six names to choose from, but isn’t it possible that Minnesota told SD to pick 12 guys that are off limits, and Minnesota could choose anyone from the rest of their system?
One player not mentioned so far that might fit the bill: 24 year old “funky” LHP Ethan Elliott. He’s reached AA, and is listed in Law’s honorable mentions. He went to a small college in Tennessee, and in his college and early minors career, posted consistently good K/9 numbers, exceptional BB/9 numbers, and also has limited H/9 and HR/9. He had a 40FV on Fangraphs in 2021, and he’s listed on the Baseball Trade Values page as 2.1 in value.
Seems to match up with a lot of the criteria. Probably would prefer Gasser or Susana, but Elliott looks intriguing.