Skenes has had an amazing spring. It was exceptional, and it sure seems like he is going to become a great MLB pitcher, quickly. But…
It’s only one season. Could he revert to his prior performance level he put up for the two previous years at the Air Force? (He was also mediocre on the Cape in limited innings.)
He struck out 15/9IP at LSU. That rate is going to tick down. He gave up 5H/9, and 0.5HR/9 last year. Those numbers are going to get worse.
He only has two above average pitches. Usually players with two pitches are “destined for the bullpen.”
A year ago, Dollander was considered way better than Skenes. Now Skenes is considered way better than Dollander. Which is it?
I think the answer is Skenes, and if the Twins wind up with him, I’d be thrilled. But there are legit reasons to not be 100% certain Skenes is a slam dunk.