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AlwaysinModeration

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Everything posted by AlwaysinModeration

  1. AlwaysinModeration
    Tom Tango had an open source thread for years (before getting hired by an MLB team) spelling out in pretty clear terms how free agent contracts are derived. It starts by figuring out what the baseline WAR a player produces per year at their maximum, prime year production (27-28 years old, mostly). For most free agents, they are starting decline phase, and so you need to discount that max value by 0.5 WAR per year. Then you figure out the going rate in free agency per WAR, and you can figure out how much a player contract might be. The real key is figuring out the baseline WAR. Buxton maxed out at 3.6 WAR on Fangraphs at age 23, and was listed at 5.0 WAR on BBref for the same year. But he’s totaled between 8-10 WAR over the past 4 years on those sites (granted last year was a short year); 2-2.5 WAR per year. I think the most you could reasonably peg him at is 3.5 WAR for his age 27 and 28 seasons. That would drop to 3 WAR for his age 29 season. So to answer your precise question, at $8mm/WAR, he could expect a $24mm salary for his age 29 season when he hits free agency. Of course, his age 30 season would be less; discount to 2.5WAR, or 8x2.5=$20mm. 31 would be 2WAR/16, and age 32 would be 1.5WAR/12. So a four year free agent contract for Buck (for his age 29-32 seasons) would be 4/72, or $18 per year. Full value for Buck, using these calculations, including his last two arb years and two years of free agency, would be 5/10/24/20=59.
  2. AlwaysinModeration
    So to revise a bit, he’d probably want an increase for this year (from 5.1 to 6): 6 / 10 / 13 / 16 = 4 / 45 Add in a fifth-year option for 20, with, let’s say, a $5mm buyout. The guarantee would be a nice round $50mm, with the Twins getting up to three FA years, and Buck making more than Polanco, Kepler or Sano. A nice commitment to Buxton from the team, mitigating some of his injury downside, but still plenty of possibility that he outperforms the value of the contract.
  3. AlwaysinModeration
    Would be a no-brainer to try to extend Buxton. In answer to the question of what would make sense: 5 / 9 / 12 / 14 = 4/40 That would be buying out two years of free agency. If he is a 2.5 WAR player, he would be worth 2.5/2/1.5/1 over the next four years = 7 WAR, at $8mm per WAR, he would get $56mm if he were a free agent. Given that they kind of screwed him out of a year of service time, they should give him slightly more than 4/40, especially given his high upside (if healthy, he definitely can post north of 2.5 WAR.) I’d say 4/44 might work. Added benefit: shows Kiriloff that after he loses a FA year by staying in St.Paul for April, he doesn’t have to worry that much about it.
  4. AlwaysinModeration
    Ahem. Joe Niekro
  5. AlwaysinModeration
    Well I think I’d go with: 7. Phil Niekro 6. Nelson Cruz 5. Bartolo Colon 4. Dave Winfield 3. Jim Thome 2. Paul Molitor 1. Steve Carlton
  6. AlwaysinModeration
    Ding ding
  7. AlwaysinModeration
    I’m looking forward to the playoff series that includes Donaldson, Simmons and Buxton.
  8. AlwaysinModeration
    According to Fangraphs, Cruz produced 6.3 WAR over the past two years, for a value of $49.6mm, while earning $26mm. He needs to produce 1.7 WAR to make this contract worth the money, which he has done for eight consecutive years (actually averaging 3.7WAR these last eight years, despite last year being 60 games.)
  9. AlwaysinModeration
    Great to have Cruz back for another season, even though expectations for his output need to be tempered a bit. That should leave just enough money in the budget for the Bauer signing.
  10. AlwaysinModeration
    And the TD summary heading into 2019 didn’t have Arraez in the top 20: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32301-article-td-2019-top-minnesota-twins-prospects-recap/?fromsearch=1 Meanwhile MLB didn’t list Arraez in their top 30 top Twins prospects for 2019.
  11. AlwaysinModeration
    Just doing a quick search, in April of 2019, Seth had Arraez as the #12 ranked position player: #12 - Luis Arraez 2B (Pensacola Blue Wahoos) Arraez returned last year after missing most of 2017 due to knee surgery. After a slow start, he started hitting again and then hit some more. Then about July 4th, he was promoted to Chattanooga where he hit some more. The Twins added him to the 40-man roster. Arraez is impressive to watch in person. He battles out at-bats and puts the ball in play. He’s also gained size and strength and I do think that he has become more athletic. In big league camp, he got time around the infield. In minor league camp, he primarily played second base.
  12. AlwaysinModeration
    Awesome signing. He’s got 36 career WAR, including 14 in 2017-2018. If he is healthy all year, he will give Donaldson a run for his money for team MVP. Also improves Polanco by letting him move to 2B.
  13. AlwaysinModeration
    Anyone?
  14. AlwaysinModeration
    Come on guys, time to get over the 0 for 16 hump.
  15. AlwaysinModeration
    Interesting analysis. I actually think he made the right choice. While the RE shows he erred 1.11 to 1.00, that 1.11 means there are many scenarios where the inning turns into a big crooked number, even after preventing the first run. They would almost certainly score one of the remaining runners on base anyway, and additionally they have a decent chance of scoring 2 or more runs in the inning. Taking the double play in a low-scoring game, and almost assuring that you limit the damage to one run by clearing the bases with two outs, is the right call, in my view. Basically you are saying, once men got on first and third, ok, you got a run, but we are limiting it to just one. .
  16. AlwaysinModeration
    Ok, since no one has stated the obvious yet, I’ll go ahead and do it: 28-0.
  17. AlwaysinModeration
    Funny thing is, I don’t think Buxton is really locked in yet.
  18. AlwaysinModeration
    Mike Morin!
  19. AlwaysinModeration
    Interesting. They are really taking it slow with the starting rotation. Depth in bullpen certainly helps. Have to assume Smeltzer and Thorpe will each get multiple innings. “Old friend” Jhoulys...funny. Also, Bremer and Smalley commented on how Stashak never walked anyone about 10 seconds before he issued his walk yesterday. There’s no one in the stands—guys, he can hear you, so knock off the jinxes!
  20. AlwaysinModeration
    All of the stocks I am keeping tabs on have risen massively since mid March. Seems like the market isn’t bothered by the virus. Is there any logic here, or is there going to be a second big drop?
  21. AlwaysinModeration
    We got him!
  22. AlwaysinModeration
    I think bombas.
  23. AlwaysinModeration
    Who is going to catch / pick up the foul balls?
  24. AlwaysinModeration
    The Twins got their guy!
  25. AlwaysinModeration
    The Twins guy is still available!
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