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AlwaysinModeration

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Everything posted by AlwaysinModeration

  1. AlwaysinModeration
    In the scenario you describe, Buxton plays full-time for the next seven years and wins seven MVPs. From 2015 to 2021, Mike Trout won 3 MVP awards while earning $187mm guaranteed (including his last couple of arbitration years, I believe), with the Angels on the hook for a massive guaranteed contract for him at $37mm/year for the next decade or so. So yeah, seven consecutive MVPs at $25mm per year, with no financial commitment beyond those MVP years is VERY team friendly. We should be so lucky that Buck achieves all of those incentives. He will have out-performed Trout at his peak.
  2. AlwaysinModeration
    Assuming they tender Cotton after going after him as a reclamation project. Minaya and Coulombe are both marginal players at the fringe of the roster. Ok to tender them, but, if, say, they could sign Matthew Boyd for $6mm (after the Tigers non-tender him) I’d prefer taking a flyer on him over either of them on the 40-man, I think.
  3. AlwaysinModeration
    I’m impressed Gibson-Long could pitch so well while wearing those plaid uni.
  4. AlwaysinModeration
    I think they bought low on Simeon Wood-Richardson, not Martin.
  5. AlwaysinModeration
    MacLeod signed: https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/sports/christian-macleod-son-of-retired-cape-breton-professional-baseball-player-signs-with-minnesota-twins-100618508/
  6. AlwaysinModeration
    Deadline this afternoon, and a few hundred thousand to spread around….
  7. AlwaysinModeration
    Interesting that you compared the Scherzer return and Berrios return. I was going to come on here to ask: If you had to choose between Josiah Gray/Keibert Ruiz or Austin Martin/Simeon Woods-Richardson, which would you take?
  8. AlwaysinModeration
    Yes, college seniors are drafted for $10K pretty regularly to save on cap space, And to give them the dream fulfilled of getting drafted by a major league team.
  9. AlwaysinModeration
    De Leon was the (former) Reds pitcher who fits this description I wanted them to scoop up. Now that they have some roster space…hope they do so.
  10. AlwaysinModeration
    How about Berrios for Martin and Woods-Richardson, would that get it done?
  11. AlwaysinModeration
    No Alex Manoah?
  12. AlwaysinModeration
    Looking at the baseball trade values site, it seems unlikely that the Padres would trade Abrams; his value is sky high, and so the Twins would need to put together multiple players to get him. If the Twins are trading Berrios, I think it will clearly be multiple players coming back, as opposed to vice versa. A package that might work would be Hasell, Weathers and Gore (and maybe one extra low level prospect) for Berrios and Rogers. Twins would get more value according to the trade value site, but assuming the Padres are desperate to keep up with the Dodgers, they could do it.
  13. AlwaysinModeration
    It seems increasingly likely that Berrios will be a Padre by the end of the day. I the Dodgers are trading Ruiz because he is blocked at catcher; perhaps the Padres will consider trading Abrams because they have Tatis as their long-term SS.
  14. AlwaysinModeration
    So, as of now, the top five picks have signed, and seven of the top eight; nine of the top 11. Based on the MacLeod interview, it seems clear he will sign. Across the top 10 picks, three signed at slot, and four (Petty, Miller, Povich, and Yake) signed under, and two signed over; Winkel got $350K over, and Rucker got $50K over. The Twins have $323,600 in cap savings to spend on Birdsell/Cardenas/MacLeod, although it looks like they may have spent some of that on some of the 11-20 round picks. What are the slot values for picks 11-20?
  15. AlwaysinModeration
    Not a bad trade, but…couldn’t they have thrown in Colome?
  16. AlwaysinModeration
    Gonsalves never went to college, was drafted as a teenager, so I don’t really know what to make of your comparison. Both lefties, though!
  17. AlwaysinModeration
    Hopefully it will soon become a rite of passage for all Twins fans to make the hajj to see this kid pitch.
  18. AlwaysinModeration
    Even when players are established in MLB, they can have complete busts of a year, any one of which would totally tank a potential picks draft prospects. Let alone trying judge players in high school or college during a year plus with pandemic limitations. Seems unsurprising that picks are all over the place.
  19. AlwaysinModeration
    I thought Thorpe had already been granted a fourth year option
  20. AlwaysinModeration
    It is a bummer those rumors were just that. We thought we knew the source, but when pressed, Garlick denied having started them.
  21. AlwaysinModeration
    Berrios is getting more than Buxton via arbitration, and has been more consistently available. ZIPs has him at 3.5WAR this year (STEAMER lower at 2.8WAR). I’d say he could be an extra 0.5WAR per season, or an extra $8mm for years three and four, plus an extra couple for the higher arb numbers. So if Buxton could garner 4 years for 50-55, a Berrios extension might be 4 years for 60-65?
  22. AlwaysinModeration
    I agree, I don’t think the Twins should give him the full 4/59 value—injury discounts would need to be factored in. Spycake just noted that ZIPs peg him at 2.7WAR over 397 ABs. I think that 397ABs is in part reflecting the risk he won’t be in the field 100% due to injuries. Steamer has him at 3WAR (but 530 ABs). So maybe my estimate of 3.5WAR for his 27/28 year season is a bit high. If he is at 3WAR for 27/28, and 2.5 WAR at 29 and 2 WAR at 30, those last two seasons are worth $36mm, making the extension 5/9/20/16=4/50. Anyway, four years, somewhere between 50 and 55mm seems like a good guess.
  23. AlwaysinModeration
    Tom Tango had an open source thread for years (before getting hired by an MLB team) spelling out in pretty clear terms how free agent contracts are derived. It starts by figuring out what the baseline WAR a player produces per year at their maximum, prime year production (27-28 years old, mostly). For most free agents, they are starting decline phase, and so you need to discount that max value by 0.5 WAR per year. Then you figure out the going rate in free agency per WAR, and you can figure out how much a player contract might be. The real key is figuring out the baseline WAR. Buxton maxed out at 3.6 WAR on Fangraphs at age 23, and was listed at 5.0 WAR on BBref for the same year. But he’s totaled between 8-10 WAR over the past 4 years on those sites (granted last year was a short year); 2-2.5 WAR per year. I think the most you could reasonably peg him at is 3.5 WAR for his age 27 and 28 seasons. That would drop to 3 WAR for his age 29 season. So to answer your precise question, at $8mm/WAR, he could expect a $24mm salary for his age 29 season when he hits free agency. Of course, his age 30 season would be less; discount to 2.5WAR, or 8x2.5=$20mm. 31 would be 2WAR/16, and age 32 would be 1.5WAR/12. So a four year free agent contract for Buck (for his age 29-32 seasons) would be 4/72, or $18 per year. Full value for Buck, using these calculations, including his last two arb years and two years of free agency, would be 5/10/24/20=59.
  24. AlwaysinModeration
    So to revise a bit, he’d probably want an increase for this year (from 5.1 to 6): 6 / 10 / 13 / 16 = 4 / 45 Add in a fifth-year option for 20, with, let’s say, a $5mm buyout. The guarantee would be a nice round $50mm, with the Twins getting up to three FA years, and Buck making more than Polanco, Kepler or Sano. A nice commitment to Buxton from the team, mitigating some of his injury downside, but still plenty of possibility that he outperforms the value of the contract.
  25. AlwaysinModeration
    Would be a no-brainer to try to extend Buxton. In answer to the question of what would make sense: 5 / 9 / 12 / 14 = 4/40 That would be buying out two years of free agency. If he is a 2.5 WAR player, he would be worth 2.5/2/1.5/1 over the next four years = 7 WAR, at $8mm per WAR, he would get $56mm if he were a free agent. Given that they kind of screwed him out of a year of service time, they should give him slightly more than 4/40, especially given his high upside (if healthy, he definitely can post north of 2.5 WAR.) I’d say 4/44 might work. Added benefit: shows Kiriloff that after he loses a FA year by staying in St.Paul for April, he doesn’t have to worry that much about it.
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