AlwaysinModeration

Great piece and interesting discussion. Trying to piece a few clues together, it seems in the past when the PTBL is just a throw in, you hear the beat writers report that the player is nothing special. We’ve not heard that with this PTBL, so it should be something. Couple that with the Rosenthal comments of the value being “2 million plus”, and it’s definitely worth trying to parse out who it might be. Looking on the Baseball Trade Values site, here are some listed values: Susana RHP 2.9 (Keith Law: honorable mention) Gasser LHP 2.4 (Keith Law: #9) Acosta SS 2.4 (Law #11) Rosario 2B 2.4 (Law#15) Lizarraga RHP 1.9 (Law#14) Kopps RHP 1.9 (Law#19) Morejon is 6.6 and is listed on the Padres 40-man roster, so I don’t see how he could be the guy. Rosenthal also suggests they are selecting from a group of players. Now, maybe the Padres gave them six names to choose from, but isn’t it possible that Minnesota told SD to pick 12 guys that are off limits, and Minnesota could choose anyone from the rest of their system? One player not mentioned so far that might fit the bill: 24 year old “funky” LHP Ethan Elliott. He’s reached AA, and is listed in Law’s honorable mentions. He went to a small college in Tennessee, and in his college and early minors career, posted consistently good K/9 numbers, exceptional BB/9 numbers, and also has limited H/9 and HR/9. He had a 40FV on Fangraphs in 2021, and he’s listed on the Baseball Trade Values page as 2.1 in value. Seems to match up with a lot of the criteria. Probably would prefer Gasser or Susana, but Elliott looks intriguing.

Taylor Rogers can join Ryan Pressley and Liam Hendriks in Los Angeles this summer at the All Star Game.

The Twins got a lot better alphabetically with this trade.

Stringer, are you going to ask for a spellcheck on Paddack?

Guessed right - Rooker has been confirmed as added to the trade.

I have to imagine an OF is in this trade. Maybe Rooker?

“Hey Derek, I hear you are looking for SP, I need a starting OF. How about Paddack for Larnach?” ”Hey AJ, that’s sounds possible, although Paddack had a down year. Would like more pitching than that. You sent Gore down to Single A last year, but he could still turn it around. Could be included?” ”I’d have a hard time parting with Gore, even after last year. I’d need a good reliever. Would you throw in Rogers?” ”Oof, you’re killing. Hang on, let me call you back.”

Isn’t this is age 28 season?

Let’s see, grading the off-season? 1. Byron Buxton was not traded. Instead, he will be a Twin his whole career. On a below-market, incentive-laden deal, betting on himself to be healthy and productive. 2. Screwed the Yankees out of signing the best free agent in the league. Oh, and signed him themselves; one year, in his 27 year old season, MVP level player on both sides of the ball. I repeat, signed a free agent, MVP candidate in his prime at the most important position, for only a one-year deal. (When has that ever happened, not just the Twins, for any team?) 3. Traded 1.5 years of Jose Berrios plus Chase Petty for two years of Sonny Gray plus Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. 4. Took fliers on Chris Archer, Gary Sanchez, Dylan Bundy, and Gio Urshela. All have been good in the past. These are lottery tickets, but one - or more -could feasibly hit. 5. (This should probably be 1 or 2). Did NOT trade any top prospects. Lewis, Martin, Winder, Balazovic, Miranda, Canterino and Duran look poised to contribute significantly to the team in the near future / for the next half a dozen years, with none of their paths blocked by long term obstacles. My grade: A resounding A.

From Dan Hayes’ Athletic article: “We stayed in contact with Chris over the last few weeks as he was building up his workload and showcasing himself,” Falvey said. “Being able to track his pitches and get the velos and TrackMan, see his video, and know where he’s at in his progression was a big part of this one. As we near Opening Day, it was important that we consider readiness if we were going to add a free agent and Chris comes in tracking pretty closely with our starters in terms of volume.”

Very much on board with this move. Archer has been unlucky with batting average on balls in play from 2017-2019, with marks of 325, 339 and 304. If that number comes back down under 300 as it should, he will do better than his numbers in 2017-2019 look. He needs to keep his hits below a hit per inning to be successful, I think. His home run rates and walk rates are a bit concerning, though, with both higher than his usual in 2019 and the short stint in 2021. Perhaps pitching in Pittsburgh was a factor in that? He posted 12 WAR over the 2013-2017 seasons, about 2.4 per season. I don’t think he’ll get back to that level, but if he is healthy, he could certainly be added value, such as 1.0-1.5 WAR. Not high upside, but there is some upside. I would have been fine with Cueto as the signing - I’m happier that they chose Archer instead. And I like the incentives and the 2023 option too.

First person to point out Winder isn’t getting any younger. I say start him in the rotation.

That was the implication, yes.

I’d like to see the Twins work out a one- or two-year extension with Sean Manaea.

I’m fine letting Duran eat whatever he wants to, so long as he doesn’t Bartolo on us. Also think he has a realistic shot at starting the season in the bullpen. I’d think that Winder and Balazovic might be ahead of Duran in terms of chances to get a start. But who knows, let’s just let it play out and see what happens.

He might not opt out, it’s true, but I think it is highly likely that he does, not only for the Boras angle but also because he’ll want to go into next offseason as the top option and have more buyers driving his market. That does lead me to the ONE quibble I can think of with this deal. I think that a deal of 35/37/39 (or 40) might have been more likely to get him for more than one year. Minor, minor quibble, though.

I’m just surprised that no other team offered more than $35mm for one year.

Landing the platinum glove winner and legit MVP candidate at the most important position on the field on a one-year deal for his age 27 season, AND keeping the payroll under last years total payroll - that is some serious sorcery! Thank you Scott Boras - it is clear that Correa switching agents mid-winter factored into him agreeing to a one-year deal.

Akil Baddoo and Jose Miranda were both left unprotected in the December 2020 Rule 5 draft, and both were rumored to get selected. So every single MLB could have snagged Miranda and they whiffed. Twins got lucky. Looking forward to seeing Miranda rise up and take his shot in the big leagues this year.

Yes, absolutely draft him is he falls to 8. This is a top of the rotation talent that the Twins might only be getting a chance at because of some weird circumstances. Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon, Tyler Jay were drafted higher than 8, none of them had the #1 overall pick upside of Rocker. And look at those guys now. On the flip side, Trea Turner was a #1 overall upside guy who tumbled, and the Twins passed. Borasfear is misplaced and over the top. If he leaves in free agency as soon as he can (which will be in 8-9 years at the earliest) that means that we struck gold with this draft pick.

Love the enthusiasm you have for Winder, Matt, and it seems warranted. The only thing you left out of the write-up is this big point: Winder is already 25 years old. He needs a crack in the rotation sooner rather than later. Ober 26 Ryan 25 Winder 25 Duran 24 Balazovic 23

I thought I saw you at that game Chachi.

My priorities are always in order.

I still have a bone to pick with Tim Beckham. Several years ago I was sitting in the club level behind home plate, and Beckham fouled a ball straight back to me. I nonchalantly caught it barehanded, while not spilling my nachos I was holding in my other hand. The woman behind me freaked out because the ball seemed like it was coming right at her. Unfortunately Beckham hit a home run on the next pitch, and any chance of getting on camera with a replay of my catch was gone. A fan came up to me later that the radio announcers had exclaimed about the catch and that I had saved the woman behind me.

Or maybe Misael Urbina.