Rik19753

Is Correa too hurt to sprint? I don't see how a grounder hit that weakly can turn into a double play.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I don't mind the decision to pull Gray after 4. He only gave up 2 runs, but if the sequencing was worse it could easily have been 4. Moran's implosion makes it look bad, but Gray was probably only going to pitch 1 more inning even if he'd stayed in. It's astounding how different Pagan looks when he's put in the game when the Twins are trailing. It's a shame that he can't be that calm and collected when we have the lead. I would bet my house(if I had one) that he would have botched the throw to 2nd when the runner took off if the Twins were winning.

I feel like Rocco and the front office are often overdoing things when it comes to platoons, especially in pinch-hit situations. Pinch hitters historically perform below their talent level, so pretty much the only situation where you can analytically justify using a pinch hitter is when you are replacing a really bad hitter with a really good hitter. When it comes to the Twins, it seems like they mostly replace good hitters in a bad matchup with average hitters that have platoon advantages, and I don't think that's doing the team any good.

Honestly, while it was nice to score runs for a change, nothing about the approach has changed. The Twins still struck out in 17 of their 41 PAs. Meanwhile, they only walked once. That's a 41.5% K% and 2.4% BB%. When you take out the 3 HRs, out of the remaining 20 AB that resulted in balls in play, 9 were hits. That's a .450 BABIP, which is tremendously high. The bad approach was masked by the long ball and good batted ball luck for a day, but it's still there.

Actually, despite the production, Twins hitters struck out in 14 out of their 43 PAs yesterday, which is 32.6%. So I doubt they changed their approach, they just happened to look good yesterday because the hits were falling.

I have absolutely no knowledge about college players, but if Skenes is "the best college pitching prospect in recent memory", why is there even a possibility that he is going to be available at No.5? Are the 4 other hitters "the best hitting prospects in recent memory"? Also, while I understand the idea that you'd like to draft the player that has the most value to other teams, in reality I don't think drafts work that way. I have a hard time thinking that the any FO will prioritize a player's trade value when they are making a top 5 pick, no matter how badly they may want a trade chip.

I think the value that Kepler holds is that he is a known commodity. We can pencil him in for a average-ish offensive season while providing solid defense. If 100 is an average player, we know he is going to be somewhere around 90~110. On the other hand, we don't know what Wallner will do over a full season. His range is something like 70~130. If you have a lineup full of proven players, I think you take the upside of Wallner. But in the Twins' case, we are relying far too heavily on high-variance players. We have no idea what guys like Kirilloff, Julien, Miranda, Wallner, Royce and Larnach are going to do. Heck, with the injury concerns with our star players, we can't even count on great seasons from Buxton, Correa and Polanco. Gallo is a huge question mark as well. So in this case, there is value to be had in having a guy like Kepler whose production you can pretty much pencil in before the season is even played. Trust me, Kepler is far from being my favorite player. But we all complain about how inconsistent this offense is, and if we had more Wallners and less Keplers, the lineup would be even more inconsistent IMO.

I have mixed feelings about this. While I understand and agree with most of the points made in this article, I think we also need to look at the positives in this situation too. Last year, we were clamoring for depth after the disastrous September where we succumbed to injuries, so I can't really fault the FO for adding, and keeping, as much depth as they possibly could. Although it sucks that Wallner is put in a situation where he likely can't claim a roster spot no matter how well he plays, it's a nice luxury to have him as the 5th or 6th outfielder instead of Celestino or Contreras. Not to mention, there is a great chance that one, if not both of Gallo and Kepler will be gone next year. So this is not a situation where Wallner is blocked for the foreseeable future, it is only temporary. Also, while it's easier to get excited about the young prospect with a high ceiling, we really need the boring but reliable guys like Kepler, especially with the way our roster is constructed. In order to incorporate rookies, you need to have some dependable stars that are going to pick up the slack if said rookies struggle. For the Twins, that is sadly not the case, as Correa and Buxton are both tremendously streaky and injury-prone. In order to incorporate young players into the mix, you have to have solid top 5 in the lineup IMO. You see the Yankees being able to give guys like Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera a chance because Judge, LeMahieu, Rizzo and Torres are consistent. The same goes for Baty and Alvarez on the Mets, because they have guys like Nimmo, Lindor, McNeil and Alonso that anchor the lineup. The Twins, on the other hand, are relying on guys like Kirilloff and Julien to produce at the top of the lineup, when they should be hitting towards the bottom. Since we don't have the luxury of having that dependable star, we need consistent production from every spot in the lineup, and in that regard, Kepler is better than Wallner.

Don't look now, but Castro has the 3rd most WAR for a position player on the Twins after yesterday's game. The other 4 players in the top 5 are Buxton, Gallo, Jeffers and Michael A. Taylor. This year is tremendously weird.

The lack of production from Jose Salas is alarming. I skim through these minor league affiliate reports every day and I don't recall seeing his name mentioned. I know he's still very young and has room to improve, but it seems like good prospects find a way to shine even if they aren't hitting, either through baserunning or defense, and from what I can tell he hasn't really been doing anything notable.

Great article. These 3 have definitely been impressive recently. It's really hard to recognize and appreciate the positive performances during rough stretches, so it was nice of Cody to highlight these 3. This year I have been pretty encouraged by some of the low-leverage guys in the bullpen. Moran, De Leon, Brock Stewart actually look the part, and I don't get the urge to duck for cover like I did last year when guys like Duffey, Joe Smith, Pagan, Megill and Cotten were pitching. Even Pagan looks at least a smidge better this year than he did last year, though that is a tremendously low bar to clear. The long-relief pitchers, Sands and Headrick, have performed admirably as well when given the chance. All in all, I still feel as confident about this bullpen as I have in a while even though they've had a tough time recently. As for Castro, I feel like he is really underrated. He's doing everything that we were expecting from Nick Gordon, which is to say, a little bit of everything. His defensive versatility has been invaluable giving the minor injuries cropping up all over the diamond, and he has often provided sparks with his speed. I think if he were a mid-level free agent signing instead of a minor league free agent, we would be appreciating his addition more. He's still young (younger than Gordon, actually) and has 4 more years left before becoming a free agent, so I would not be surprised or disappointed to see him stick around as a utility player long-term.

It's ironic that this was probably the only offseason that Guardians fans weren't complaining about not making any big additions to their offense, yet this year their offense is worse than ever. It's just so hard for players who had good rookie seasons to continue that in their sophomore year, as evidenced by Julio Rodriguez, Miranda, and all of the young players on the Guardians.

No, they are not. The Guardians' -31 point differential may be bad, but the Tigers' -48 differential is worse. They are clearly over-performing. Greene and Torkelson can turn into stars and they still wouldn't have an average lineup. They have 3 players with more than 50 PA that have a OPS higher than .700 and none have a OPS above .800. The Twins have 9 players with a .700+ OPS and 4 with a .800 OPS.

I always go to MLB daily lineups on Rotowire (https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/daily-lineups.php) to see the Twins lineup for the day, and they had Sean Manaea expected to be the primary pitcher two hours before the game. So even if they didn't expect Manaea to come in, they should have at least prepared for that possibility. And even if they didn't expect Manaea to come in, it still doesn't justify Rocco's moves. If anything, if they knew he had thrown a bullpen session, they should've stuck with Julien and Kirilloff knowing that Manaea didn't have a ton of bullets in him.

While those numbers, as well as being 30th in K%, don't paint a pretty picture, it also doesn't explain why this offense looks so bad. If you look at these stats, you would think that their offense is average. And it is, when you look at runs scored, as they are actually a very solid 12th. Their problem isn't that they aren't scoring runs, it's that they are horrible when the stakes are high. The Twins have a -2.28 WPA in clutch situations, which is 29th in the league. This essentially means that if they had hit at a league average in clutch situations, they would be 28-20 or 27-21, not 25-23. Normally, these things even out as the season go on, because clutch hitting isn't thought to be a repeatable skill. So if this were happening to some other team, I would be confident in saying that they are playing below their talent level and that they will be better going forward. However, in the case of the Twins, I can't help but think this is all connected to the playoff losing streak and the bad juju that seemingly surrounds this franchise. We've seen time and time again that the Twins can't perform up to their normal level when the pressure is on, and sadly, I think the lack of clutch hitting is just more of the same.

The offseason additions, which seemed uninspiring before the season, has really carried the team. Besides the two that you mentioned, I can pretty much find a positive for every player they added. Joey Gallo: His tremendous power, and solid on-base skills have been crucial given the early season offensive struggles. He provides good defense as well. Christian Vazquez: Offense hasn't been great, but the I think we can attribute at least a part of the resurgent pitching performance to his game calling behind the plate. Willi Castro: Wasn't impressed by him at the beginning of the season, but he seems to do a lot of things well that don't show up on the stat sheet. He's played every position besides 1st and C and has 3 DRS (defensive runs saved) according to Fangraphs. He seems to run the bases well (4 steals) and hits the ball decently hard. His defensive flexibility has definitely allowed Rocco to be more aggressive with in-game substitutions. Pablo Lopez: Hasn't been great recently, but the upside is clearly there and he is at worst a decent No.2. Brock Stewart: He looks a lot like Pagan from last year, but without the HRs. As long as he keeps the ball in the ballpark I think he's can be at least a mid-level reliever, which we sorely need with Alcala struggling and Thielbar injured. Kudos to the FO for seeing the value in these players. They were exactly the types of additions we needed to shore up our depth.

That's a really tough slate of opposing starting pitching. A week ago I would have had a hard time envisioning the Twins scoring more than 3 runs against any of those pitchers, but this last weekend has sparked a little hope. Even so, I would be very happy if the Twins leave LA with a 3-3 record. In order to do that, tomorrow's game is looking like a must win. Syndergaard seems like the softest of the pitchers, and we have Pablo pitching. If we lose that game it feels like a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers seems inevitable.

This blowout win gives the Twins a +43 point differential on the year, which is 5th in the Majors. The teams above them: Rays, Rangers, Braves, Dodgers The teams right below them: Orioles, Cubs, Mariners, Astros, Blue Jays That is some pretty great company. Looking at the records of the other teams on this list, one could argue that the Twins should actually have an even better record. Oh, and the next best AL Central team is the Guardians, who have a -23 run differential and are 22nd. I'm going to be really disappointed if we don't win the division this year.

When looking at these type of stats it's important to compare to the league average. It's to be expected that Ober is better against righties, as he is a right-handed pitcher. Likewise, every single SP is better the 1st time through. So to make an argument that Ober is not suited as a SP, you need to compare with the league-average stats to prove the point. Also, we have to consider that Ober is still a young pitcher and far from a finished product. Even if he is bad against lefties now, he could add another pitch to his repertoire that is more effective. To suggest that a young pitcher is more suited as a RP when said pitcher is still getting the feel of the majors is premature IMO, especially when he has already proved he is competent. If we keep doing that we would not be left with any young SPs.

Great post. I think Gordon is very underrated amongst Twins fans and his unluckiness to start the season hasn't helped. I've seen people saying the Twins should outright cut him, which I feel is absurd. One very interesting fact about Gordon is that while his expected stats are remarkably similar to last year (.261 xBA in 2022 and .260 xBA in 2023, .464 xSLG in 2022 and .460 xSLG in 2023), he has completely changed as a hitter. This year he is striking out in only 7.5% of his at bats (which is lower than Arraez's career K%!!!), whereas he struck out 23.7% last year. On the other hand, he is barreling the ball a lot less (9.4% in 2022, 4.9% this year) and his hard hit rate has gone down as well (44.3% to 39.3%). When a change like this happens, in most cases the player is being less selective in the pitches he swings at, thus it results in more balls in play but less quality contact. However, in Gordon's case, he is actually swinging at fewer pitches this year than he did last year. On the other hand, when he does swing, he isn't missing. His swinging strike rate has gone down from 15.2% to 9.8%. This is a HUGE change. For reference, Sano has a career 15.9% swinging strike rate, while Correa has a 9.2% swinging strike rate. This leads me to believe that he can actually sustain a low K% (not as low as 7.5%, but maybe a K% in the low teens) while maintaining his quality of contact from last year, which would lead to tremendous results. I'm very excited to see how Gordon plays this year, maybe more than any other young Twins player besides Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien. I hope he starts getting more regular at-bats to show his worth.

We all need to calm down about the decision to leave Maeda in the game. Sure, it looks bad when the offense scores 6 runs afterwards and Headrick ends up pitching a great game. But when you go back to the top of the 4th, when the Twins were down 5-1, did anyone have the slightest bit of confidence that the Twins would be able to score 5 runs in 6 innings, with a lineup missing Buxton and Polanco? And that's not to mention that when you are banking on Headrick pitching 3~5 innings, the Yankees are inevitably going to keep adding to their lead. Even if we had made a pitching change, we would have needed 90th percentile performances from both Headrick and the lineup to even have a chance of winning. Also, while the lineup ended up scoring 6 runs, that only happened because the Yankees allowed them to. German started the 7th inning when he had already given up 5 runs, that would never have happened had it been a close game. German would have been pulled after giving up 3, and we would have been facing the best of the Yankees' bullpen. The equation is just so much more difficult than subtracting the 6 runs from the 4th inning to say that it would have been a tie game in the bottom of the 9th. Believe me, I am as disappointed as everyone that we couldn't witness a Twins sweep of the Yankees. It sucks that the series ended like this, giving us a bad taste in the mouth. But we can't blame Rocco for everything that goes wrong. Kenta and the defense let us down. It happens.

Man, does Lopez look good. As good as Arraez is, the front office made a smart and necessary move by getting Lopez for him. Good job by them. Beyond excited to see Julien in the lineup tomorrow. Hopefully Correa can join him.

I see that now that the Astros can't bang on trash cans, they are sending spies to other teams to strike out and ground into double plays at the most crucial moments in the game. Maybe we should bench Correa for this series? 😄

What is with the Solano hate? He went 2 for 5 with a walk, at least save the complaining for when he goes hitless. Of course, Julien is the more exciting player with the brighter future, but if someone is going for him, it's Willi Castro, not Solano.

Very true, especially the Astros. With Altuve and Brantley out, the lineup doesn't seem nearly as scary as it always does. The top 5 of Pena, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez and Abreu is menacing, but after that it reminds me of the Twins lineups from September of last year. Not to mention we are going to miss their 2 best starters, Valdez and Javier. I haven't felt this optimistic about playing the Astros in years.