Nick Nelson

I'm curious to know how people think this team -- which finished in 3rd place last year with a .500 record and was projected to basically do the same this year -- would have done with a "better" manager. Would they have won 100 games? Won the World Series? What is this magical manager doing differently than Baldelli to squeeze more performance of this roster, with minimal contributions from CC/BB, exactly? The "grass is greener" delusion has never been stronger than with Rocco I feel like. "He manages the staff badly!!!" They allowed the fewest runs in the league!!

Here are some of the internal and external options the Twins could consider at first base for 2024 in the event that Alex Kirilloff's recovery from shoulder surgery extends into next season. Image courtesy of Bill Streicher, Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Alex Kirilloff is slated for labrum repair surgery in his right shoulder, and the Twins won't know a timeline until after the procedure takes place next week. Considering the nature of this type of significant surgery, there is a decent chance that his recovery will carry over into the 2024 season. At the very least, the Twins need to be thinking very seriously about what the short-term (and perhaps long-term) picture looks like at first base in AK's absence. Here are a few paths they could take this offseason to ensure the position is in good hands for next year. Re-sign Donovan Solano Perhaps the simplest answer. Signed for $2 million at the start of spring training, Solano proved to be a key fixture for the Twins. He led the team in starts at first base (64), and was a solid contributor with his .369 OBP and 110 OPS+. If the Twins wanted to run it back, they could probably do so on another inexpensive one-year deal. But, even if you're envisioning the solution at first base is somewhat of a stopgap, don't you want to aim higher? Solano turns 36 this offseason, has no power, and was not terribly impressive defensively. By almost any value-based metric he was a below-average player. He also left a bad taste in all our mouths by striking out three times in the elimination game against Houston. Donnie Barrels, your service is appreciated, but I think it's best for both sides to move on. Sign a different free agent first baseman Of course, there are plenty of other fish in the sea of free agency. But trust me when I say that this year's first base class is not very appealing. There's not really a star-caliber player in the bunch, unless you are targeting someone like Cody Bellinger or Jeimer Candelario as a first baseman. Rhys Hoskins is a slugger who'd look good in the middle of the Twins lineup, but he missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL suffered in the spring. Otherwise the pool consists of a bunch of older fading players who can hardly be trusted to be offer much more than Solano. Trade for a first baseman Trades are the more interesting avenue for outside additions, if you're looking for a real difference-maker at first base. Two names stand out as potential targets: Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt. Alonso is an elite power hitter who fits with the offensive profile that Minnesota remains committed to. He's entering his last year ahead of arbitration and the woebegone Mets could seek to cash in rather than lose him for nothing. (Not to mention clear salary in pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.) Goldschmidt is coming off a relative down year, and entering his final season under contract at age 36. He's the kind of experienced veteran icon (and recent MVP) who would add another layer of respected leadership in the clubhouse. But he has a no-trade clause, and may prefer to stay in St. Louis even if their contention outlook is uncertain. An exciting big splash like Alonso or Goldschmidt would emphatically address first base for next year while keeping options open long-term. But either player would cost a ton to acquire. Is it worth it when you can turn to the following option? Solve for the problem internally Jose Miranda. Remember that guy? Okay, his own shoulder isn't looking like much of a sure thing either, but he remains a very relevant name on Minnesota's first base depth chart. And there are other players on hand who could aptly fill in at first base, at least on an interim basis. Edouard Julien got a couple of starts at first late in the 2023 season, and while the team seemed resistant to using him there much, they might feel differently if they can bring him along in spring training and let him own the position. This would of course open up second for Jorge Polanco, so it makes sense. Maybe Miranda or minor-league slugger Yunior Severino, who hit 35 home runs at AA/AAA this year, could plug in as a platoon bat alongside Julien. Another option: turn the keys over to Brooks Lee, who hasn't played first base yet as a pro but could almost certainly handle the assignment. This would open the door for Minnesota's top prospect to step in alongside the young nucleus. If the Twins (understandably) want Lee to get a little more seasoning in Triple-A, where he admittedly hasn't dominated yet, they can keep this idea in their back pocket. But the 22-year-old should be viewed as another depth piece in the first base equation. With all of these internal options being on the table, and with Kirilloff still being part of the plan at some point, I find it hard to believe the Twins will allocate major resources to a blockbuster addition at first base. If an opportunity materializes for someone like Alonso or Goldschmidt, the front office should definitely see it through. But they've got enough ready-made depth on hand that they should not feel overly pressured to add here, from my view. What do you think? What would be your plan at first base this offseason? View full article

The season is officially over, but for the Minnesota Twins front office, their work is just beginning. Here are 6 key priorities for the Twins as they look to build on their success from 2023. Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports The Twins front office is in a fairly good place heading into the 2023-24 offseason, with a lot of continuity built into their division-winning roster and relatively few blatantly obvious needs. But they do have needs. Here at Twins Daily, the baseball season never ends. We'll be firing up end-to-end offseason coverage soon, with planned weekly themes in November plus cool bonus content for TD caretakers. Sign up now to make sure you don't miss out! The following top priorities will guide much of the discussion throughout the coming months Here are the boxes the front office must check this winter: ☐ Find a front-end starter to replace Sonny Gray. The Twins will extend Gray a qualifying offer. Presumably Gray will turn it down. From there, it becomes very difficult to see the two sides coming back together, though it's not impossible. (See: Carl Pavano, 2011.) That means the Twins front office is tasked with replacing their 2023 team MVP. Gray is going to leave some big shoes to fill as the co-ace who paired with Pablo López to lead one of the best rotations in franchise history. He ranked third in the majors in ERA, trailing only the two surefire Cy Young winners (Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole). Gray was individually worth more than five wins, according to FanGraphs. He was also the team's best pitcher in 2022. It's a big void that will be tough to offset. But the good news is that the front office should have considerable money to spend – their current projected 2024 payroll is at least $30 million lower than this year's – and plenty of intriguing trade chips in their overloaded position-player corps. The latter is especially noteworthy, since this regime has shown a clear knack for trading to acquire frontline starters, with a track record that includes Kenta Maeda, López, and of course Gray. ☐ Gamble on another high-upside starting pitcher. Even if the Twins are able to once again pull off a high-scale move to acquire a high-end starter, they shouldn't stop there. The planned 2023 rotation depth included not just Gray, but also Maeda and Tyler Mahle, who are free agents as well. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are nice to have on hand, but the front office should be targeting high-upside additions to raise the ceiling on this unit. The presence of so many proven solid options gives them a stable enough floor to take some risks, which is a fun place to be. The Twins might consider pursuing an opportunistic trade – like, say, for disgruntled Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah – or targeting one of the numerous buy-low candidates in free agency, a group that will include Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and James Paxton. Pete Maki's pitching program instills confidence that the Twins can mine some gold, and suddenly Minnesota is a rather attractive destination for starters. ☐ Make decisions on long-tenured veterans. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco: they've been around longer than almost anyone in the clubhouse, and they are both coming off quality seasons (albeit with some ups and downs). The Twins have team options on both for 2024, and it's all but assured those options be exercised. That doesn't mean they will be back. Both Kepler and Polanco could draw significant trade interest for a team that – as we've discussed – needs to backfill some pitching. Meanwhile, the Twins have young talent pushing these longtime mainstays. On another front, the Twins must make a decision regarding their other longest-tenured player: Byron Buxton. While trading the hobbled 29-year-old isn't an option, the front office needs to reach a firm stance on what they can expect from Buxton in 2024, and orchestrate their roster-building accordingly. ☐ Figure out the plan at first base. Alex Kirilloff is sadly headlong down the same path as Buxton – too frequently injured to be relied upon from a planning standpoint. His upcoming shoulder labrum surgery leaves the future of first base in a state of limbo. One plan would be to go out and target a new player who could potentially take over as full-time first baseman if Kirilloff can't go. Another would be to think creatively about internal options. For example, top prospect Brooks Lee looks ready to go and currently has no clear path to the big-league roster, with a crowded infield picture. But if first base is open... ☐ Re-evaluate the hitting program. To their credit, David Popkins and the hitters pulled things together in the second half. Buoyed by the immediate success of rookies like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner, Minnesota's offense was among the league's most potent after the break Still, their whiff-heavy profile continued to make them an especially boom-or-bust unit, and ultimately led to their exit from the playoffs. After setting a new MLB strikeout record as an offense, Minnesota struck out 28 times and scored three total runs in Games 3 and 4 against Houston. It doesn't sound like the Twins are inclined to fully disassociate from this offensive identity – "I would rather have a guy have a great at-bat, go deep into a count and possibly strikeout, but give us a chance to actually give us a baserunner or actually look for a ball in the middle of the zone and pulverize it," said Derek Falvey – but they need to find some balance. Whether that means shaking up the roster a bit, targeting players who specialize in hitting for contact, or making alterations to their training and instruction programs (though it sounds like the main coaches will be back), there are several ways the Twins could approach this. ☐ Extend at least one young building block. The future is here. This is a great moment to lock down some stability, cost assurance, and long-term control. The three rookies mentioned above are all candidates for extensions that will provide them with financial security and the Twins with a bit of extended control. (I favored trying to opportunistically strike a deal like this with Lewis last spring, but alas, that ship sailed.) The Twins could also consider extending one of their younger pitchers, like Ryan, Ober or Jhoan Duran. Another option would be to take the Rays approach and strike a long-term contract with a top prospect who's yet to debut, such as Lee. The bottom line is that, with relatively few major outside needs to address this offseason, the Twins can look inward and aim to take care of business that sets up their proven internal core for longevity and success. View full article

He'll likely (and deservingly) be a top 3 finalist for MOTY and has the highest winning % of any Twins manager in 5 decades, I don't even know why this would be considered a controversial premise.

It's easy to feel gloomy and doomy about Byron Buxton's future, given all we've seen him go through this year. But, as we've learned in the past, even the most mysterious and long-lingering injuries are not necessarily permanent. Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports It is very possible that Byron Buxton's knee is chronically and/or structurally compromised, in which case this year will only serve as a harbinger of things to come. Maybe he never bounces back from this and his body ends up forcing him to retire at any early age. Could happen. But frankly, I've been hearing way too many Twins fans treat that as a casual assumption, forgetting the fact that Buxton has rebounded from injury time and time again in the past, and isn't yet 30. I find it annoying. There's just not a lot of value in hand-wringing over the scenario where Buxton's days as a productive player are over -- even if you see it as probable. We don't need to sugarcoat the fact that things looked bleak this year: his surgically repaired knee never seemed right, forced him into (ineffectual) designated hitter duty in the first half, and shut him down after early August. When Buxton limped out up to the plate for a fruitless pinch-hitting appearance late in Wednesday's elimination game, it was simultaneously a cool and sad moment. A sign of the end for this broken-down superstar? Not necessarily. Leading up the postseason, as Buxton pushed himself to become viable for the ALWC roster, he spoke with La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. One thing that struck me about Buck's quotes in the article was how he seemingly attributed much of his difficulty in 2023 to the arthroscopic knee surgery he'd undergone the previous offseason. "I was still coming off surgery," Buxton said. "I had never played a year following knee surgery. I was still trying to figure this out, all year." Neal's article also included this tidbit: Probably (okay definitely) an optimistic spin from La Velle there, but the underlying point is a valid one: sometimes it takes a while for the body to bounce back from surgery, even a supposedly "minor" one. Just ask Joe Mauer. After injuring his knee late in the 2010 season, Mauer underwent arthroscopic surgery during the offseason. The following season was a disaster, for both the team and Mauer specifically. He posted career-worst numbers and missed two months while taking fire from fans who were befuddled by the team's "bilateral leg weakness" diagnosis. He was 28 (one year younger than Buxton is now) and the vagueness of his health situation left many wondering what Mauer's future would look like. Later on, as things came into focus, it became clear that the catcher simply struggled physically to rebound from knee surgery and probably pushed himself back too soon. And here's the upshot: in 2012, once Mauer had another offseason to recover and distance himself from the knee surgery, he was pretty much back to his regular self. He played 147 games, made the All-Star team, and led the league in OBP. The surgery worked, it just took a little longer than some would've liked. Mauer was in the same form in 2013 up until another unrelated injury came along and DID permanently alter the course of his career. That sort of thing will be an ongoing concern for Buxton even if he can get past the knee issues. But the point is that his injury-wrecked 2023 campaign does not indicate that Buxton's knee is shot. The body works in unpredictable ways and there's no telling what another offseason building back (without pushing recklessly toward a return to the field) could do for the formerly elite slugger, still owed $75 million and heavily incentivized to add onto that number by returning to MVP form I'm hanging onto that hope as we head into this offseason, while acknowledging that the Twins front office absolutely needs to prepare themselves with strong contingencies in center field, as they did this year. View full article

AK cannot catch a break. For the fourth time in his young career, he is looking at a serious arm-related surgery and recovery. The road ahead will be a difficult one. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports In his season-ending presser on Friday, Derek Falvey revealed that first baseman Alex Kirilloff will undergo labrum surgery on his right shoulder later this month. The procedure is scheduled for October 24th, with the team indicating that they won't know the extent of the labrum tear until then. There's a wide range of outcomes at play, but we can safely say this is very unfortunate news. It's not necessarily surprising news, after the developments we saw play out this week. Kirilloff was removed from the ALDS roster following Game 3, replaced on Wednesday by a barely-mobile Byron Buxton. According to Rocco Baldelli, Kirilloff was still bothered by a shoulder injury suffered midseason, which caused him to miss all of August. Though he battled through it and looked solid in September, Kirilloff came up empty offensively and made a crucial error in the playoffs. According to Baldelli, the shoulder had "just progressively been getting worse to the point where he really can't swing at this point.” Now, Kirilloff is billed for labrum surgery, which is a serious procedure almost under any condition. There are many examples of players who have undergone labrum surgery and ultimately missed considerable lengths of time. That list includes Game 4 home run hitter Michael Brantley, who played only 15 regular-season games for Houston this year after undergoing surgery for a torn right shoulder labrum in August of 2022. A recently published study on MLB players following arthroscopic shoulder labral repair concluded that: "Following arthroscopic shoulder labral surgery, most MLB pitchers and positional players were able to [return to play] successfully but experienced shorter careers thereafter. These players also experienced declines in game utilization and performance one season after surgery but were able to return to baseline at 3 seasons after surgery." This isn't meant to cast conclusions, but simply to provide context. For what it's worth, the Twins expressed optimism he'll be ready for next spring, although there's really no way to know at this point. One way or another, Kirilloff has a(nother) long road ahead of him, and it's impossible not to feel for the guy. In the long-running saga of Twins top prospects plagued by astoundingly endless injuries, he might be the banner example. In 2016, his very first professional season, Kirilloff suffered a partial UCL tear in his elbow. He tried to avoid surgery through a PRP-and-rehab plan, but it didn't work out. He underwent Tommy John surgery the next spring and missed all of the 2017 season. Kirilloff came back and re-emerged as a top prospect. Even the lost COVID season could hardly slow him down, as Kirilloff was called up for an elimination game in the playoffs against Houston. His star was shining bright heading into 2021, but sadly Kirilloff's physical battles were only about to begin. He suffered a torn ligament in his right wrist that required season-ending surgery. Kirilloff returned in 2022 but the surgery proved insufficient as the wrist pain persisted. He underwent a more invasive ulnar shortening surgery and commenced in a lengthy rehab. This was considered essentially a last-ditch effort to fix his wrist. And this season, it seemed to be working. Kirilloff took it fairly slow but made it back, and looked at times like the elite-level left-handed masher that we know is within him. But now, a new very serious injury has popped up and once again completely derailed his career. To watch this same thing play out with him and Royce Lewis in such close succession (while Buxton's career is also threatened by physical breakdowns at age 29) is surreal and gut-wrenching. Alas, there's nothing to do but soldier on. Lewis at least presents an aspirational prototype for what it can look like to bounce back from unthinkable injury adversity and thrive. Kirilloff, despite all he's gone through, is still only 25. There's a path forward and AK's resilience up to this point gives cause for optimism. The Twins front office, however, has a tough task ahead in setting a vision for first base. We're all hoping for the best for Kirilloff, but by now, the club has no choice but to plan for the worst. View full article

According to most metrics there is a massive difference between the two in defensive value, with Vazquez having the advantage. FWIW.

Regression hitting like a load of bricks, key players failing to step up in favorable matchups, and regular-season warning signs coming to roost: These were the defining letdowns that led to Minnesota's postseason exit. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports I want to start by saying that, at long last, a lot went RIGHT for the Twins in these playoffs. They snapped a 19-year losing streak, they triumphantly swept the Blue Jays at home, and they made the defending champs sweat in the ALDS. You're not going to catch me calling this year a failure. But at the end of the day, the Twins did come up short. And they did so in rather painful fashion, after Sunday night's victory set them up in very favorable position to come home and take control against the Astros. So here in this postmortem, we'll dissect four key things that went wrong for the Twins and led to their exit in the second round of the playoffs. 1. Legitimate fears came to fruition. This is the banner headline that encapsulates several different subplots. The frustrating thing about Minnesota's most fatal flaws in the postseason is that, in many cases, they weren't that hard to see coming. These were concerns that long loomed in our minds, and caused apprehension as we looked ahead to the high stakes of October. In particular, these are three striking examples of how our fears turned into reality. The offense goes back into its shell: Performances like Tuesday and Wednesday were the team's calling card in the first half, as they compiled strikeouts at a historic rate and frequently no-showed in the runs column. Even with all the improvement in the second half, those kinds of games were still mixed in -- the byproduct of a lineup prone to striking out in bunches, and shriveling up in damage spots. Regression slaps Sonny Gray in the face: There were clear signs of unsustainability in the 33-year-old's phenomenal regular season numbers. Namely: Gray's penchant for wriggling out of jams and limiting home runs to an extreme degree. All that regression pretty much came to a head on one devastating pitch to Jose Abreu with two runners on in Game 3. Alex Kirilloff playing hurt: The oft-injured first baseman missed all of August with a shoulder issue that seemed pretty serious, but made it back to play 19 games in September. His numbers were fine (.766 OPS) but Kirilloff hardly looked like he was at his best, and the team noticeably took it easy with his usage. Fears that his shoulder might still be bothering him were confirmed when AK exited Game 3 and was removed from the roster afterward. 2. Ryan Jeffers failed to live up to the team's hopes. The Twins really put their eggs in the Jeffers basket, and understandably so. He had a tremendous season, ranking second among MLB catchers in wOBA and second among all Twins position players in fWAR. Rocco Baldelli figured he had a big advantage in being able to run out that kind of bat behind the plate, so he did so in all six games. Unfortunately, Jeffers did not deliver, managing just two singles and two walks in 25 plate appearances. The decision to use Jeffers exclusively meant, in turn, that Christian Vazquez saw zero action in the entire postseason. Again, it's justifiable given how bad his bat was all season, but Vazquez was signed in large part for his seasoning on the big stages of Boston and Houston. He's battle-tested, but never got tested in this losing battle. 3. The lefty bats couldn't capitalize or cash in. One of the biggest reasons for optimism around the Twins in these playoffs was how well their lefty-powered lineup was set up for success based on match-ups. Minnesota's ALWC opponent, the Blue Jays, threw two right-handed starters. The Astros brought a bullpen devoid of lefty arms into the ALDS. Players like Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Max Kepler and Matt Wallner were in a position to shine after hammering right-handed pitching all year long. With the exception of Julien, none did. Kirilloff went 0-for-9 while playing hurt. Wallner was 0-for-8. Kepler went 5-for-23 (.217) with 10 strikeouts, one walk, one run scored, and zero batted in. He struck out looking at strike three to end the Twins' season on Wednesday, exploding into frustration as his lifetime playoff average dropped to .146. 4. Caleb Thielbar's biggest weakness came to bite him. Thielbar has been a spectacular performer and awesome story in the Twins bullpen. Returning from pseudo-retirement in his mid-30s, he's put together one of the better multi-year stretches for a reliever in Twins history, posting a 3.21 ERA since 2020. He was really good once again this year, despite missing time with an oblique injury, but one issue haunted the left-hander: home runs. He gave up seven this year in just 30 ⅔ innings, with his fastball victimized most frequently. Here, in contrast to Sonny Gray, you'd hope for a little positive regression; home runs had never really been a big problem for Thielbar in the past, and 30 innings is a small sample size. But the long ball was most definitely a problem for Thielbar in this ALDS. In Game 1 he gave up a homer to Yordan Alvarez, extending Houston's lead from one to two in the seventh inning. That one hurt, coming immediately after Minnesota's offense narrowed the deficit in the top half. But it didn't hurt as much as the next one. On Wednesday, Jose Abreu got hold of a 1-0 pitch from Thielbar -- a fastball -- and drove it over the fence in right for a tie-breaking (ultimately game-winning) home run. According to Baseball Reference it was the single most pivotal play of the series. Mistakes and missed opportunities are magnified on the big stage in October. These are the ones that will have an outsized impression in my mind as I look back at this run and what could've been. View full article

A veteran pitcher experiencing new levels of success, a veteran hitter experiencing new levels of struggle, and a result that illustrated how unpredictable baseball can be. (But also kind of predictable at the same time.) Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray put together one of the best seasons of his career by routinely disentangling himself from the exact type of jam that he found himself in right out of the gates on Tuesday. Unlike his co-rotation leader Pablo Lopez, Gray is not a pitcher who thrived this year because of missing bats and piling up strikeouts. His 9.0 K/9 rate was fine, don't get me wrong, but 24 qualified MLB starters had a better mark. Significantly fewer had a better ERA (third in MLB) or fWAR (fourth). At the end of the day, Gray got the job done to an elite degree all season long, even while showing a relative propensity for drawing contact. How'd he do it? A combination of skill and luck. Gray certainly did a few things to help his cause. He was pretty good at inducing weak contact, with a 67th percentile barrel rate and middling exit velocity. He was very good at inducing ground balls (77th percentile). He generally avoided issuing walks, with a 2.7 BB/9 rate that was his lowest since 2015. Still, Gray's 1.15 WHIP on the season was nothing too special. He allowed a fair number of base runners, which is why the start to Tuesday's first inning didn't feel all that abnormal or worrisome at the time. The right-hander's remarkable success in the regular season owed primarily to what he was able to do once runners got on base against him. With nobody on, hitters slashed .237/.280/.358 against Gray – bad but not truly horrible. With men on base that line dropped to .211/.299/.262, and with runners in scoring position, to .194/.313/.206. Gray's strand rate (percentage of runners left on base) was 12th-highest in the league. Within this, the true biggest key to Sonny Gray's stellar season in 2023 was his historic ability to limit home runs. He surrendered only eight long balls in 32 starts, leading all of baseball with a 0.4 HR/9 rate that ranks as the lowest in Twins franchise history. Gray kept the ball in the yard at an otherworldly level. And in line with the above, only two of those eight homers came with runners on base. To some extent, both of these strengths – limiting damage with runners on, and avoiding home runs – owe to a specific skill for executing in key spots. Gray did that, all year long. By no means can anyone argue that his phenomenal results were mostly the result of luck. But ... there was some luck involved. And that's reflected in expected numbers like xERA (3.69) and xFIP (3.65). In many ways, a lapse toward normalization felt mathematically inevitable for Gray. Who could've known it would happen at the worst time possible, against a very unlikely foe. Things got off to a troubling start for Gray on Tuesday, right as the action got underway in Game 3. First Jose Altuve stroked a solid single to center, putting the leadoff man aboard. But the Twins starter bounced back with a strikeout of Alex Bregman. Up came the dreaded Yordan Alvarez. Here, Gray did his thing: in an extraordinarily tough match-up, he made a good pitch and induced a weak grounder down the first base line. But a charging Alex Kirilloff whiffed the ball and allowed it to role into right field for a two-base error. What could've been an inning-ending double play instead led to two runners in scoring position with one out. A horrible break for Gray and the Twins, but still, the type of tricky situation he's almost always been able to overcome, all year long. Not this time. Kyle Tucker laced an RBI single past a drawn-in infield. This brought up Jose Abreu, who would deliver an early death blow as an unlikely hero for Houston. Newly signed to a $60 million contract by the Astros, Abreu had a horrible first year with his new team. The revered slugger didn't hit a home run until late May and finished with his worst career numbers across the board, with underlying metrics suggesting he might be cooked. Abreu did come on a bit at the tail end of the season, closing out with a power surge in the final weeks. And maybe that helped set the stage for a series-defining at-bat in Game 3. Gray missed up and in with a sinker. He came with another one on the next pitch, this time finding the lower part of the zone for a strike. The next pitch, up and in again. Hoping to have changed Abreu's eye level with the high heat, Gray looked to go do down and away with a sweeper. But this sweeper didn't sweep. It hung right in the middle of the zone and got blasted to Canada. For one of the first times all year, the 33-year-old Gray simply failed to execute in an absolutely critical spot. The location of this pitch was just astonishingly bad. Gray did the one thing he could absolutely least afford to do in that particular moment, and it split the game right open. The righty has seen the team lose games on his bump days with an odd frequency all year, but rarely could be he named a prime culprit. This time, in perhaps his final start as a Minnesota Twin, he most definitely could. Gray pushed through to the midpoint of the game but never looked very good, allowing leadoff runners in each of the next four innings, including the fifth where he went HR-2B-BB and was removed with no outs. The veteran was seemingly unable to take advantage of the same shadows that flummoxed Twins hitters all afternoon. It's not the Sonny Gray we've grown accustomed to seeing, but it's probably the one we should've expected to reveal himself at some point along the way. Even the craftiest and most expert pitcher is bound to experience the cold realities of regression to the mean in baseball. For Gray and the Twins, this regression felt especially mean, and leaves them on the brink of elimination. View full article

The Houston Astros announced their ALDS roster on Saturday, and it includes only one left-handed pitcher: Game 2 (and 5?) starter Framber Valdez. This staff makeup sets the Minnesota Twins up to play to their considerable offensive strengths. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn, Matt Blewett, Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Twins offense was revitalized in the second half of the season, improving from 24th in runs and 21st in wOBA before the All-Star break to fifth and third thereafter. It's no secret that a group of left-handed hitters led the charge in this turnaround. The additions of rookies Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner, along with the return of Alex Kirilloff and the awakening of veteran cleanup hitter Max Kepler, played primary roles in Minnesota's rise from ineffectual to elite over the course of the season. Of course, the flip side to having several left-handed batters powering your lineup is that you become susceptible to lefty pitching. We certainly saw that this year with the Twins, who finished fifth in wRC+ against RHP and 15th against LHP. Opposing managers often sought to exploit this weakness, turning to left-handed relievers early in games and trying to force Rocco Baldelli's hand into removing some of his best bats from the lineup for late-game scenarios. We saw this play out as recently as Game 2 of the ALWC, although swapping out Jose Berrios for Yusei Kikuchi in the fourth didn't work out so well for John Schneider and the Jays. Alas, the Astros will be unable to even attempt such a strategy, because they have not one single left-handed reliever in their ALDS bullpen. Julien, Wallner, Kirilloff and Kepler will be at no risk of being pulled out of a game based purely on match-up reasons. And while the presence of stellar southpaw starter Framber Valdez looms large, Houston's all-RHP bullpen will be ripe for pinch-hitting opportunities from the likes of Julien and Wallner. Now, it bears noting that Houston's righty relievers tend to be quite effective against left-handers, but still, I'll take these 2023 platoon splits against a right-handed hurler any day: Edouard Julien: .274/.401/.497 Matt Wallner: .281/.409/.561 Alex Kirilloff: .300/.373/.485 Max Kepler: .263/.335 /.497 The Twins got to this point, in large part, on the shoulders of their outstanding core of left-handed bats. Now those bats will have every chance to push Minnesota to the next stage. The offensive support will likely be needed against a Houston lineup full of premier hitters who are imposing in any match-up. View full article

😂 the multitudes of fandom

The old trope 'This ain't your grandfather's [whatever],' which muses on how things change over time, doesn't feel quite apt when describing the very recently unstoppable Houston Astros. So we'll use a more proximate hypothetical relation in driving at this basic point: Houston looks like a declining dynasty whose uber-impressive reign in the AL may be reaching its end. Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports If the Minnesota Twins want to reach the ALCS, they're going to need to get past a team that's gotten there in six consecutive seasons. The Astros have flat-out dominated the American League, bookending their run of amazing success with World Series championships in 2017* and 2023. Houston also quickly dispatched Minnesota in the 2020 playoffs, on top of all that. You look at a franchise with these bona fides -- and a roster featuring names like Justin Verlander, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu -- and it's easy to feel intimidated. Very understandable. I'm not saying the Astros are an unimposing match-up. But they ain't what they once were. And that leaves the door open for the Twins to dethrone the defending champs. Let's start with Justin Verlander, the Game 1 starter for Houston. He's been really good this year. And while he has been able to channel his legendary peak form on occasion, he hasn't done so very consistently and it's reflected in his decidedly human overall numbers. Verlander posted a 3.22 ERA in 27 starts this year. Very good, but also his highest ERA since 2017. His FIP (3.85) was JV's highest since 2008; his K-rate the lowest since 2015. The 40-year-old posted zero double-digit strikeout games this year after putting up four last year and 13 in 2019. (He missed 2020/21 with Tommy John surgery.) It seems silly to downplay a pitcher whose numbers were as good as Verlander's this year, even if they weren't quite to the level of a runaway Cy Young winner like in 2022. But it's helpful to separate the current version of Verlander from the one burned into many of our brains. He's not the same guy. That's a trend across much of this roster, which is noticeably less deep than usual with high-caliber performers. Framber Valdez remains excellent alongside Verlander, but no other starter on Houston's staff had a FIP below 4.37 (all five Twins starters did). The Houston bullpen is strong of course, but not as scary as it's been in the past; Ryan Pressly posted his highest ERA and home run rate, and his lowest strikeout rate, as an Astro. On the offensive side, Abreu is a player whose history and reputation definitely clash with on-field performance. Twins fans know him as a long-time iron man and elite run producer from his days with the White Sox. Houston signed him early in the offseason, envisioning him as an upgrade to their championship offense. Instead, Abreu was a massive disappointment in the first of a three-year, $60 million deal, putting forth the worst season of his career by a light year. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as a sub-replacement level player. He didn't hit his first home run until the end of May, and finished with an 87 OPS+ that would've ranked 11th among qualified Twins hitters. It seemed as though the effects of aging avalanched upon Abreu suddenly and starkly at age 36, making this signing look like a rare colossal whiff for the Astros -- perhaps another indicator this once-invincible operation is losing its fastball. Aside from Abreu, Houston's lineup still features several legitimate superstar hitters coming off great seasons, including Altuve, Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. They ranked third among AL teams in OPS and runs scored. This offense needs to be taken very seriously, even if somewhat diminished from previous iterations. That's true of the Houston Astros as a team. But they are definitely diminished. Ninety wins in the AL West is nothing to scoff at but it's far below the standard set by Houston in recent full seasons, which have seen them win 106, 95, 107, 103, and 101 games dating back to 2017. Within that 90-72 record, there were some signs that could be considered troubling from their perspective. The Astros lost more games (43) than they won (42) against teams with a record above .500. They also had a losing record at home (39-42), where they'll host the first two games of the ALDS. Last year, by comparison, the Astros were 42-27 against winning teams and 55-26 at Minute Maid Park. Everywhere you look, you see the signs: this dynasty appears to be fading. The hallmarks of Houston's greatness are growing less abundant and radiant, and it's been apparent enough in the head-to-head matchups: Minnesota went 4-2 against the Astros this year, after going 0-6 against them last year. That doesn't mean Houston's going to be an easy assignment, or that the Twins necessarily should be favored in anyone's mind, but it does mean they're catching the Astros at a relatively good time. The door is open for the Twins to try and make a statement that the power balance in the American League is ready to shift. Vanquishing the Yankees would be nice, but when you think about it, there's no bigger statement possible than going into Houston and taking it to these defending champs and perennial finalists, while assuming their surrendered mantle in the ALCS. That opportunity is now in front of a power-hitting, power-pitching Twins team that -- by the way -- certainly ain't your grandfather's Minnesota Twins. View full article

Redemption was the story of the season for the Minnesota Twins front office, whose signature stubborn streak helped facilitate the end of an infamous (and equally stubborn) postseason losing streak. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck and Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Sports Stubbornness is often framed as a bad thing: having or showing dogged determination not to change one's attitude or position on something, especially in spite of good arguments or reasons to do so. That's a pretty apt characterization of the Twins front office's general vibe over the past year or so, isn't it? They've been sticking to their guns, even when the heat is on and the criticism feels valid. It felt quite fair to wonder, at times, if these guys suffered from a problematic inability to admit when they were wrong. On the contrary: they have continually been redeemed for their resolve. There were good arguments to move on from Max Kepler and Emilio Pagán after last year, and even in the early part of this year. There were good arguments to add bullpen help at the trade deadline rather than standing still. There were good arguments for the Twins to move on from hitting coach David Popkins, or at least to significantly alter their offensive approach after the first half. In each of these cases, and more, the front office's dogged determination paid off. Kepler and Pagán both had excellent seasons, playing key roles in winning a division championship. They were exceptional in the second half as Minnesota separated from Cleveland and locked down a postseason berth. But what about once they got there? Following their fruitless deadline, it was difficult to envision a scenario where the Twins would yield a deep and trustworthy bullpen for the playoffs. But their plan of keeping space open for internal reinforcements worked perfectly: You couldn't have asked for better additions than Louie Varland, Brock Stewart and Chris Paddack via trades. These are high-octane arms who helped shut down Toronto and are now ready to play key roles in the ALDS. Around midseason, the constantly misfiring offense looked like an even bigger concern than the bullpen. The Twins lineup was repeatedly shooting blanks, threatening to negate the rotation's historic greatness. Fans and analysts everywhere were begging for some kind of shakeup from the ineffectual status quo – maybe making a change in hitting coach, like the Yankees did in early July. Ultimately, New York's gambit proved out as the epitome of a useless desperation move: they were even worse in the second half (.688 OPS) than the first (.710 OPS) after firing Dillon Lawson at the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Twins remained committed to their inexperienced yet widely acclaimed young hitting instructor Popkins, who oversaw a massive turnaround from the first half (.709 OPS) to the second half (.808 OPS) for Minnesota's offense. These weren't just good decisions from the Twins front office. They were season-defining decisions made under challenging circumstances – much like the offseason trade for Game 1 winner Pablo López. The stubborn mentality seems to extend across every facet of this team: Rocco Baldelli sticking with Griffin Jax as his top setup man in the playoffs; the lineup's unrelenting willingness to push to two-strike counts; Jhoan Duran unleashing endless curveballs while everyone clamors for more heaters. And to be clear, this inclination is not ALWAYS a good thing. (Paging Joey Gallo.) But by and large, the Twins have been rewarded for holding strong and believing in their plan, their players. "The group in that room," as rallied by Falvey following his quiet deadline. Conviction has led the Twins to this point, and it's bringing them into the divisional round of the playoffs with an apparent sense of confidence and swagger. View full article

0-18. It's a figure scorched into the minds of Minnesota sports fans – an inconceivable standard of failure that has sadly haunted our collective psyches for going on two decades. I'm not here to tell you the curse is going to end this year. I'm here to tell you it damn well should. Here are 18 reasons why: Image courtesy of Melissa Berman, Twins Daily 1. A best-of-three series, all at home, is a big advantage. I know it can be easy to dismiss, given how everything went for the Twins last time around (2020), but the new MLB playoff format fundamentally shifts the scales toward the higher seed in the Wild Card round matchup. Three games, all in one ballpark. Beyond the energy and backing of the local crowd, baseball's fabric is designed to favor the home team, providing the key advantage of batting last. Throughout MLB history, home teams have won 54% of their games. The Twins made hay at Target Field this year, where they went 46-33 (.582). 2. The Twins got to set themselves up; their opponents didn't. By virtue of clinching so early, the Twins have had the luxury of handling all of their players and planning with an eye toward the postseason. That is not true of the Blue Jays, who had to fight and claw through a tight wild-card race all the way down to the final day. Not only does this mean Toronto's key players have all been playing and pushing through the final week of the season, but it also impacts pitching layouts in significant ways. Twins starters and relievers are all rested up. 3. Sonny Gray is a DAWG. The last time the Twins had a playoff pitcher with a fWAR as high as Gray's this year (5.2) was Francisco Liriano in 2010 (5.6) and the last time before that was Johan Santana back in 2006 (6.7). Ranking third in the major leagues in ERA, Gray is an elite No. 1 starter who will arguably be the best starting pitcher from the AL in the postseason, based on performance. Beyond the numbers, Gray just seems like the kind of bulldog you want on the mound in a game with this kind of pressure and stakes. He's confident, competitive, and fierce. It's no surprise he's been extremely successful in postseasons past, with a 2.95 ERA in four career playoff starts. 4. It looks like Royce Lewis is giving it a go. Lewis is special, and he made that very clear as a rookie this year, putting forth a strong case for team MVP despite playing in just 58 total games. That'll happen when you hit .385/.452/.785 with runners in scoring position with a record-shattering four grand slams. Emanating pure Derek Jeter qualities, Lewis seems like a player who was built for the October spotlight. This makes it all the more gutting he suffered a hamstring injury just two weeks before the start of the playoffs, a development that threatens to hamper his effectiveness. But if any player has given reason to believe he can overcome adversity and deliver, it's Royce Lewis. 5. Carlos Correa is an all-time October producer. There is no individual player in the hunt with a more accomplished postseason track record than Correa. He is the active leader in postseason RBIs, and sixth all-time. He's slashed .272/.344/.505 with 18 homers in 79 playoff games. He won a World Series* in 2017. As we all know, Correa hasn't played up to his standards for most of this campaign, hobbled by a bad case of plantar fasciitis. But he's gotten a little rest ahead of October, which is historically where he's been most in the zone. This is what the Twins signed him for. 6. Jorge Polanco has the clutch factor. Correa's clutchness on the big stage is legendary, but Polanco has an overlooked reputation of his own in this regard. In his career, Polo has a .909 OPS with runners in scoring position – 190 points higher than with bases empty. He hit .300/.380/.467 this year in "high leverage" spots. Polanco's got the kind of makeup you want on the big stage, and he's a matchup-proof switch-hitter, effective from both sides. Assuming the ankle soreness that sidelined him in Colorado is not a major issue, Polanco is an underrated potential difference-maker for the offense. 7. Max Kepler is healthy and playing the best ball of his career. The only other time Kepler has approximated his production from this season was 2019. He was a force to be reckoned with that year, to be sure, but as you may recall Kepler was extremely banged up heading into the playoffs; he missed a bunch of time in September and only hit .171/.293/.200 with one extra-base hit that month. The right fielder's fruitless ALDS performance (0-for-10) was a mere continuation of that trend. This year we'd love to see Kepler continue his trend from the second half, where he's slashing .292/.364/.529. He appears fully healthy as the playoffs arise and he looks to improve upon his .056 lifetime average there. 8. Jhoan Duran instills fear in opposing hitters. We all know how important power arms near the back end of the bullpen are for postseason success. These are the moments that separate the greats – the true dominators who are able to handle the pressure and win pressure-packed match-ups. Duran hasn't been perfect this year but he's been damn good and he's got the kind of premium stuff that overpowers in the playoffs. He's also, importantly, been able to rest up a bit over the past couple of weeks. 9. Rocco Baldelli is a master tactician. People will probably dispute this one. Whatever. Baldelli navigated his team to an 87-season and easily clinched a division title despite receiving very little value from franchise cornerstones Correa and Byron Buxton. For all the complaints about his pitching staff management, Baldelli's team allowed the fewest runs in the American League. He has the best career winning percentage of any Twins manager since the 1970s. Say what you will about Rocco Baldelli: he's a winner. He hasn't been one in the playoffs, yet, but then, he's never had quite so many healthy and high-caliber tools at his disposal. 10. Donnie Barrels is lurking. Doesn't Donovan Solano just seem like the kind of guy who will delight us with a few unforgettable postseason moments? The veteran has been rock-solid for the Twins all year, consistently coming through with quality at-bats and key hits. When the moment is big, Solano answers the call. With RISP this year he hit .346/.490/.500 and in high-leverage situations, .303/.448/.434. 11. Willi Castro is a premier postseason bench weapon. The minor-league signing made a major impact for the Twins all year long thanks to his versatility, athleticism, solid switch-hitting bat, and elite base-stealing ability. These same qualities make him a dynamic asset off the bench for postseason play, flexibly capable of fulfilling a variety of important in-game functions. Castro leads a bench that is, on balance, an under-discussed strength for the postseason Twins, and far better equipped than past units. 12. Pablo Lopez is a strikeout machine. Strikeout pitchers tend to be more reliable performers in the playoffs – they are less susceptible to the whims of fate on batted balls – and Pablo's been one of the best in this regard. One of the best in baseball this year, and one of the best in Twins history. Lopez's 234 strikeouts this year rank him second in the American League and his 10.8 K/9 rate is tops for any Minnesota starter ever. When on his game, he's shown the ability to straight-up mow through opposing lineups, who are helpless against an arsenal with three different pitches registering 30%+ whiff rates. 13. Brock Stewart is back! Like a disappeared Avengers character, Stewart has returned just in time for the climactic end game, as the Twins welcome him back with open arms. Firing upper-90s filth with precision, the reinvented veteran reliever left opponents helpless during his splashy debut in May and June, rising near the top of the bullpen hierarchy. He out-pitched every Minnesota reliever, including Duran. Stewart was sidelined midseason by elbow soreness, and as he experienced multiple setbacks in his recovery, it looked like a return wasn't in the cards this year. But he made it, one week ahead of the playoffs. He adds critical high-leverage firepower in front of Duran. 14. Kenta Maeda is a proven postseason weapon. He gets overlooked with all the hype around Lopez and Gray, and even No. 3 starter Joe Ryan, but Maeda has more experience and success in the playoffs than any other pitcher on this team. He started Game 1 of the ALWC series for Minnesota in 2020, hurling five shutout innings, and was previously used by the Dodgers as a high-performing relief fixture during several deep postseason runs. Maeda heads into October looking very sharp, with a 2.82 ERA in his four September starts and a strong first relief outing. 15. Bullpen boasts multi-inning relievers who can shove. Relief pitchers who can reliably come in and pitch well over multiple innings – bridging from a short-ish start to the top arms in the bullpen – are incredibly valuable in the playoffs. Maeda figures to be one of at least three such candidates that Baldelli will have at his disposal. Louie Varland has looked spectacular since assuming this new role for the first time, bumping up the quality of his stuff and blowing hitters away with a 1.50 ERA and 17-to-1 K/BB rate in 12 relief innings. Chris Paddack has entered the fold with premium high-90s stuff, adding a third power/length hybrid to this suddenly deep relief corps. 16. The youth wave seems unfazed by pressure. It's too soon to say how the Twins' historic rookie hitting class will handle the big lights in October, but they've certainly handled the stakes of transitioning to the big leagues with aplomb, which bodes well. We've already covered Lewis, but Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner have also played huge roles in the offense's second-half surge, and will be counted on to spark the postseason lineup. They're gonna give right-handed pitchers nightmares. 17. Alex Kirilloff is a sleeping giant. He's not been talked about as much, with all the attention to Lewis and the rookies, but it's worth remembering that a healthy Kirilloff is perhaps the most talented hitter in this lineup. Right now he looks healthy. In his final 10 games, AK slugged three homers as appeared to dial in his power stroke at just the right time. 18. The Twins team heading into the playoffs is not the same one from the first half. The biggest reason people are inclined to dismiss the Twins, aside from the general postseason reputation the franchise has earned: they were an 87-win team out of a bad division. Good enough to make the playoffs, sure, but good enough to hang with the true juggernauts of the American League? Absolutely. Minnesota's underwhelming final record is heavily influenced by their perpetual mediocrity in the first half, and it's hardly pollyannaish to declare that it was a simply a different team back then. Since the All-Star break, they've played at a 96-win pace, with the best record of any AL team other than No. 1 seed Baltimore. The Twins, in their current form, should absolutely be viewed as one of the best teams in the league. Will they play up to that standard in the next two or three days? That remains to be seen. But there are a whole bunch of reasons to believe that this is the year Minnesota snaps its ignominious streak and doesn't stop there. I believe. We believe. Now let's go do it. View full article