Nick Nelson

Naming moves from last offseason is a weird way to disagree with my assessment of this offseason. Are you really saying that making obvious moves on Kepler, Polanco and Gray is a deviation from the status quo?

The offseason is off to a quiet start across the league, but things figure to start heating up as the Winter Meetings fast approach. Here's a quick rundown of where things stand with the Twins, who've been busy setting themselves up to make some moves. Image courtesy of Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports There's no other way to frame it: The start of this offseason has been flat-out deflating for Minnesota Twins fans. After watching a promising ALDS fizzle out at Target Field, we've since been informed directly by the team's leadership that we can expect payroll cuts next year. It's a splash of cold water following the franchise's much-awaited resurgence. Thus far, everything we've seen from the Twins in a slow start to the offseason has been suggestive of a commitment to the status quo. There have been no real surprises or curveballs yet. But that doesn't mean some aren't in store. Read on to catch up on any moves or headlines you might've missed. Twins Extend Arbitration To All Eligible Players Minnesota's front office characteristically waited until the very last minute to make their decisions public, but ultimately ruffled no feathers when the deadline to extend 2024 contracts for arbitration-eligible (and pre-arb) players arrived on November 17th. The Twins extended offers to the following seven players, whose salary estimates for next year are listed alongside: Kyle Farmer, $6.6M Willi Castro, $3.2M Caleb Thielbar, $3.0M Ryan Jeffers: $2.3M Alex Kirilloff: $1.7M Nick Gordon, $1.0M Jorge Alcala, $1.0M Just because these players were offered arbitration, that does not assure they'll be on the team next year. In some cases (i.e. Farmer) it's probably more likely they won't be. But for now, all seven remain in the Twins' plans. Prospects Added to 40-Man, Suspects Subtracted Earlier, the Twins had added four prospects to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from the upcoming Rule 5 draft: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Austin Martin, Jair Camargo, and Yunior Severino. You can read about the minor-leaguers who were NOT added, and thus left vulnerable to getting plucked away when the Rule 5 takes place, here. These additions have been counterbalanced by a number of marginal or injured players being removed and outrighted from the 40-man roster, including all the departing free agents (Michael A. Taylor, Tyler Mahle, Donovan Solano, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Emilio Pagan, Joey Gallo) as well as relievers Jovani Moran and Ronny Henriquez. Gray was extended a qualifying offer, which he rejected, so in the likely event he signs elsewhere, the Twins will get draft pick compensation. All of this shuffling leaves the 40-man roster at 36, as the Twins turn their attention toward acquiring new talent. Twins Said To Be Shopping Vázquez Last offseason, the Twins' top priority was signing Christian Vázquez, and they got it done before Christmas. This year, their top priority already be unloading his contract. According to MLB insider Robert Murray, via Foul Territory TV, "The Twins are looking to cut payroll and have aggressively tried to move certain players, including Christian Vázquez." Just a bummer of a headline and tone-setter for this offseason, as alluded earlier. For the Twins to immediately go into open cost-cutting mode following such an energizing, breakthrough season is horrible optics. Alas, here we are. Vázquez is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons, but rated out well defensively and clearly has some level of demand in a sparse catching market. Still, it's tough to envision the Twins getting much more than salary relief in return for trading the veteran and his remaining two years, $20 million. Detroit Zeroing In on Maeda Elsewhere, it sounds like momentum is building toward a deal between Maeda and the Detroit Tigers, which would keep the right-hander in the AL Central following his four-year stint with the Twins. The Twins were said to be in the mix for Maeda, but I don't get the sense they are prepared to win a bidding war for the 35-year-old coming off a good-not-great season. With Detroit looking to take a step forward and overtake the Twins after finishing second this year, snagging away Maeda would be an interesting development for a budding rivalry. The Hot Stove has been cool thus far, but it's bound to heat up soon. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for real-time coverage and discussion of the MLB offseason. View full article

The last time the Twins were riding momentum like this heading into an offseason, they swung big, albeit not quite in the way people expected. If the front office wants to build on a strong offensive foundation like they did with the Josh Donaldson signing, these two trade targets would seriously upgrade the heart of the Minnesota lineup for 2024. Image courtesy of Eric Hartline, Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports Coming off a 101-win season in 2019 where their pitching fell short in the playoffs, everyone expected the Minnesota Twins to move aggressively on arms in free agency. By all accounts, they tried, but were unable to woo their top targets. So the front office pivoted. They were determined to make an emphatic addition that would energize the fanbase and further elevate their ascendant squad. Minnesota made an ambitious addition at a position that didn't really seem like much of a need, because the opportunity was there. The Twins signed Josh Donaldson to be their new third baseman, and shifted Miguel Sano to first base in order to accommodate the move. The idea was that infusing Donaldson's high-end bat into an already potent lineup would serve to elevate an offense that already ranked near the top of the league. That move didn't work out particularly well, but the rationale was sound. This winter, if the Twins want to bring in a proven big bopper who can dramatically upgrade a lineup that already ranked as one of the league's best in the second half, they should seek to do it at first base, where there's flexibility to add. And they should look to the trade market rather than free agency, where two opportunities exist to add a potentially elite right-handed bat. There are reasons to believe Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso could be available this offseason at a somewhat reasonable cost, and either one would have the makings of a huge difference-maker in the Twins offense. Paul Goldschmidt, STL Goldschmidt has been one of the league's premier players for more than a decade. Since splashing onto the scene with Arizona back in 2012, Goldy ranks fourth among MLB players in fWAR. The only players to total more home runs during that span: Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton. Goldschmidt has been a top-three finisher for the MVP award four times, including 2022 when he won it. So why would he potentially be available in trade talks? A few reasons: Goldschmidt is reaching the end of his $130 million contract, with one year remaining at $26 million. Trading him now would allow the Cardinals to recoup value while also experiencing some payroll relief. The veteran first baseman turned 36 in September, and showed signs of possible decline this year with his lowest OPS+ (120) since he was a rookie back in 2011. The Cardinals have been a relentlessly competitive team over the years, but they are coming off a last-place finish and might need to be realistic about their outlook for 2024. Does it really behoove them to hold onto an aging and expensive first baseman if St. Louis isn't serious about making a push? It definitely bears noting that Goldschmidt has a full no-trade clause. He would need to approve and sign off on any hypothetical deal. It's possible that would require an extension from the acquiring team, if it's an option at all. Goldy may very well prefer staying where he's comfortable for another year and figuring out his plan then. However, I'll say this: his name was definitely floating around at the last trade deadline. And he was recently listed off by top MLB insider Jeff Passan as one of several candidates to be moved this offseason. Maybe Goldschmidt looks at the opportunity to join Carlos Correa in leading an ascendant Twins team as inviting after a 91-loss slog with the Cards. (Who just inspiringly signed Lance Lynn.) For a more straightforward but arguably less ideal fit, let's turn our attention to the second candidate I'm highlighting today. Pete Alonso, 1B Unlike Goldschmidt, you don't have a manufacture a scenario where Alonso gets traded this offseason. He's being mentioned far and wide in the rumor mill, entering his final season of arbitration with a projected price tag in the $22 million range. Steve Cohen and the Mets aren't going to trade Alonso just to dump his salary, although it might help pave the way for another big splash. They are likely seeking to shift their identity after the 2023 club was an expensive disaster. There's been little indication they plan to extend him, so it only makes sense the Mets would shop their 28-year-old three-time All Star around and see if they could get a haul. Alonso embodies what the Twins have valued as an offensive profile: he hits the ball extremely hard and launches a ton of home runs. He hit 53 home runs while winning Rookie of the Year in 2019, and has averaged 41 in three full seasons since. That includes a most recent 2023 campaign in which the "Polar Bear" went deep 46 times for New York. Needless to say, the cost to acquire him would be high. Which is a little scary because – in what might sound familiar to Twins fans – Alonso offered relatively little value outside of all those home runs this year. He batted .217 and struck out 150 times. Despite leading the league in HBP, he finished with a mere .318 on-base percentage. His defense rates out poorly and he's extremely slow. Of course, that's only one season. In 2022, Alonso was an all-out monster, posting a 146 OPS+ with 131 RBIs and 3.8 fWAR. He didn't finish too far behind Goldschmidt (the winner) in the MVP voting. While the aging Goldy is on the downslope of his career, Alonso might yet be on the way up. For that reason, he'll probably be aiming to land with a team that plans to give him a contract extension. I can't imagine that being the Twins. Making room for his salary in 2024 would be tricky enough, let alone committing the nine-digit sum necessary to lock up an all-or-nothing RH power bat when they're already beholden to one in Byron Buxton. Goldschmidt's $26 million salary would be tougher to accommodate in the short-term, but trading Max Kepler would help offset the addition somewhat, and in turn, Alex Kirilloff could slide to the outfield to make room for a new full-time first baseman. If the Twins choose to target an explosive first baseman to upgrade the heart of their lineup and elevate their offensive ceiling to new heights, there are two very legitimate options out there. That is, if they are willing to pay the price, in prospects and dollars. View full article

@Greggory Masterson I just realized what a wrench I threw in the title of this post by scheduling it to publish on a Tuesday. Please forgive me 😭 Seriously though, great stuff as usual

We asked Twins Daily users and writers to submit their ideas for realistic offseason trades. We ended up with a list of 35 submissions. While each was unique, there were definitely some noticeable trends and commonalities. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone and Jeff Curry-USA TODAY SportsMichael McLoone and Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports If you haven't yet, you can download the (FREE!) big list of trade ideas, which is a PDF compiling submissions from our community. Each proposal was explained, vetted, and analyzed. Anyone can access this installment of our 2024 Offseason Handbook, whether you are a Caretaker or not. This call for imaginative yet considered trade ideas yielded a wide range of theoretical swaps, involving many different players. Some were off the wall; others seemed downright plausible. One person submitted a three-team deal involving six players. I encourage everyone to read through all of the many ideas unpacked in the PDF, but here I'm going to pull out some themes and takeaways that struck us as we went through all your submissions. Corbin Burnes is a good trade fit for the Twins Clearly the rumors of Burnes' availability, with reports that the Brewers are willing to trade "virtually any player" following Craig Counsell's exit, have piqued the interest of Twins fans, and for obvious reasons. Burnes is a frontline starter capable of offsetting the loss of Sonny Gray like few others could. Multiple different trade submissions targeted Burnes, including a really well thought out and explained framework from Matthew Trueblood, who has unique dual insight as editor for both a Twins and Brewers website. If Milwaukee would be down to deal Burnes and his one remaining year of control for Jorge Polanco and David Festa, as Matthew suggests, I think I'd take that in a second. Payroll could be an impediment in making a big splash The pesky knowledge of a looming Twins payroll decrease threw some cold water on a few otherwise intriguing trade ideas. Multiple people took a shot at acquiring Juan Soto from San Diego, but even if the Twins could muster a worthy package, it's hard to see how another $30 million salary fits on the books. The same is true to a lesser extent with Pete Alonso, another known trade candidate. One popular name whose pursuit could be stymied by payroll implications is Tyler Glasnow. He's an appealing fit for the Twins as a frontline talent with one remaining year of control, but the same reason Tampa is looking to unload Glasnow is the same reason Minnesota may struggle to accommodate his addition; the righty is owed $25 million in 2024. David Festa is a popular trade chip In trying to conceptualize trades that would be considered realistic, many respondents included pitching prospects, which tells us they were taking the assignment seriously. Festa was named in six different Twins trade packages, and Marco Raya was in a few others. Twins Daily has these two ranked as the top two pitching prospects in the organization, fourth and fifth overall. Minnesota's front office might prefer to trade exclusively from its position-player depth, but young arms are the currency of baseball. As I wrote in an earlier Handbook chapter, "If the Twins front office is big-game hunting this winter, these are names they’ll need to make themselves comfortable including." People are eyeing Mitch Keller as the next Pablo Lopez The Lopez trade worked out extremely well, so it's unsurprising that many fans are eager to try and replicate it. Pittsburgh's Keller was called out in multiple submissions as a target with similar traits: he's pretty young (27) with good-not-great performance and upside to potentially be tapped. Like Lopez a year ago, Keller has two remaining years of team control, and they don't figure to be that expensive. Of course, for these reasons, the Pirates won't be giving him away. Players dangled in various hypothetical Keller trades included Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and both of the top two pitching prospects mentioned above. Unloading salary for prospects looks like a realistic path It's no surprise that there were a lot of different deals in the book involving Max Kepler and/or Jorge Polanco, given that both are logical candidates to be shopped this winter. Several of these proposals brought back immediate impact talent, but if the Twins are truly motivated to move one or both for salary reasons, a trade that brings back prospects might be most likely -- particularly if the Twins are using this step-back in spending as an opportunity to reload their longer-term pipeline. One trade suggestion from user Cory had the Twins swapping Polanco for RHP Tom Harrington, the No. 6 prospect in Pittsburgh's system. Another submission, from "harmony," sent both Polanco and Kepler to Seattle for their top pitching prospect Emerson Hancock. If you haven't yet, we encourage you to explore the Big List of Twins Trade Ideas and share your own thoughts, or any ideas for offseason trades that might've been inspired by others. View full article

We asked our community to help with crowdsourcing realistic trades the Twins could make this offseason to address their needs. They delivered. Explore nearly three dozen different trade scenarios suggested by Twins Daily users and writers, with reasoning and commentary. Image courtesy of Twins Daily & Brock Beauchamp We've spent the past two weeks diving deep on free agents and internal options for the Minnesota Twins. But if we know one thing about this front office, it's that they favor the trade as their avenue for the highest-impact acquisitions. Trades are hard to predict. But that doesn't mean we can't try. For our third and final installment of the 2024 Offseason Handbook, we crowdsourced 35 different trade ideas and asked submitters to explain their reasoning and verify plausibility (to some extent) with an online tool. Then we gathered them all up, categorized 'em, and added our commentary. While previous installments of the Handbook have been exclusive for Caretakers, we're making this bountiful helping of content FREE TO ALL. Click below to download the chapter, explore the many ideas and angles for trades, and share your thoughts in the comments. (Or, create a blog and share your own idea for a realistic offseason trade that benefits the Twins!) If you like this portion of the Offseason Handbook, we encourage you to become a Twins Daily Caretaker and access the full guide, which also includes deep dives on payroll, free agent targets, and the organization's internal talent pipeline. View full article

Great points! This is something I stressed all year long. Rocco and the Twins did Gray a huge favor in the way they managed him, setting him up to hit FA in the best possible state.

The Yankees are still searching for the offensive clout that's been amiss since they raced with Minnesota for the home run record in 2019. Now, they're turning to the hitting coach who oversaw the historic Bomba Squad season. Image courtesy of Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK In 2019, the New York Yankees led the major leagues in runs scored with 943, and the Twins followed close behind at 939. These elite offenses were both propelled by the long ball – Minnesota set the all-time home run record, with 307, and New York finished just one behind. Of course, the two explosive 100+ win teams faced off in the ALDS, and the Twins were swept. Since then, the franchises have followed interesting parallel paths in terms of how their record-setting offenses have fared. Fading from the top After leading the world in runs and homers in 2019, here's how the Yankees and Twins fared against the rest of the majors over the following three years. 2020 Yankees: 4th in runs, 5th in homers, 5th in OPS Twins: 18th in runs, 6th in homers, 15th in OPS In the shortened COVID season, the Yankees took a minor step back offensively and the Twins took a huge one, as their overreliance on home runs became plainly problematic. Notably, Minnesota's hitting coach James Rowson – who many hitters had credited with their success in the 2019 "Bomba Squad" season – took a bench coach job with the Marlins during the previous offseason. Many outsiders viewed Rowson's absence as a factor in the team's massive offensive drop-off. 2021 Yankees: 19th in runs, 8th in homers, 13th in OPS Twins: 14th in runs, 5th in homers, 11th in OPS Now it was New York's turn to take a tremendous offensive tumble. Despite continuing to hit homers at a solid pace, their offense was mediocre and the Yankees failed to win the AL East for a ninth time in 10 years. Meanwhile, Minnesota sputtered to a last-place finish, ranking as a middle-of-the-pack offense overall despite having six players hit 19+ home runs. Each club decided it was time for a change. The Yankees moved on from hitting coach Marcus Thames, who'd been in the role since 2018. (Naturally, he took a job as hitting coach for the Miami Marlins, on the same staff as Rowson.) The Twins reassigned Edgar Varela, who'd replaced Rowson as top hitting instructor in 2020. Both clubs went in similar directions with their new hires, enlisting analytically inclined young coaches from the minors, with no MLB experience to speak of. New York hired internally, promoting a "data-driven" minor-league coach named Dillon Lawson. The Twins went outside of the organization, plucking David Popkins from Los Angeles' Single-A affiliate. The thought behind this hire was described as "similar to the data-driven approach that Wes Johnson takes with the pitching staff." The Great Lakes Loons, for whom Popkins had previously been coaching, "hit more home runs under Popkins' watch than all but two of the 90 Class A and AA teams this year, the sort of results the Twins are looking for," wrote Phil Miller at the time. Both of these new-school hitting coaches espoused a similar philosophy: swing hard, ambush opponents, crush mistakes – and don't get too defensive with two strikes. The diverging paths that have unfolded since then are fascinating. 2022 Yankees: 2nd in runs, 1st in homers, 4th in OPS Twins: 17th in runs, 13th in homers, 11th in OPS New York had a great offense in 2022, but it can hardly be overstated how much this was driven by a historic individual season from Aaron Judge. Outside of him only one qualified player on the Yankees (Anthony Rizzo) had an OPS over .800, or a wOBA over .330. Unless you considered Lawson the Judge Whisperer, there wasn't a lot of success to be attributed to the new hitting coach. In Minnesota, there weren't many conclusions to be drawn either way. Catastrophic injuries decimated the Twins roster, to the point where their pedestrian overall numbers could be considered a moderate success. Which bring us to 2023. Both offenses were underwhelming in the first half. Both fanbases had people calling for the heads of their inexperienced young hitting coaches, who seemed to be in over their heads based on results. The Yankees made a drastic change, firing Lawson at the All-Star break and bringing in former big-leaguer Sean Casey, who had zero experience and certainly no analytical bona fides. The Twins held strong and stuck to their plan with Popkins. In the second half of the season, the Twins ranked fifth in runs, third in homers, and third in OPS. Meanwhile, the Yankees ranked 27th in runs, 14th in homers, and 28th in OPS. Minnesota was vindicated for showing faith in their plan and their coach. New York further unraveled after making a change mid-season, then parted ways with Casey afterward. From there it was back to the drawing board, which brings us (and Rowson) full circle. James Rowson comes home When the Twins originally hired Rowson, he'd been the minor league hitting coordinator for the New York Yankees, which is the same role Lawson was in before graduating to the job that Rowson has now been hired to fill. It's a real full-circle moment – in more ways than one when you think back to the home run race of 2019. In a way, it feels like the Yankees are now desperately trying to replicate what the Twins have been able to accomplish. Which is an amazing thing to say. View full article

Ahead of Tuesday's deadline to protect minor-leaguers from the upcoming Rule 5 draft, the Twins added two of their top 10 prospects to the 40-man roster, starting the clock on their major-league arrivals. A few other intriguing eligible players were left unprotected, meaning Minnesota will be at risk of losing them from the system next month. Image courtesy of William Parmeter, Mighty Mussels, and Mark J. Rebilas, USA TODAY Sports The Twins got a head start on their 40-man roster moves earlier this month by adding infielder Yunior Severino and catcher Jair Camargo, keeping them from free agency and protecting them from teams seeking to add talent in the Rule 5 draft. They saved the easiest decisions for last. Today, the club added outfielders Emmanuel Rodriguez and Austin Martin, pushing their 40-man roster to 38. There was no way either of these two would be left unprotected. Both are highly promising players – Rodriguez ranks third on our top prospects list, Martin seventh – and both would have certainly been selected if left available. (Possibly with the top two picks.) Both Rodriguez and Martin are interesting figures in the Twins' offseason planning, for different reasons. Rodriguez is one of the team's best trade chips to dangle in the hunt for frontline pitching, while Martin's presence as a future center field option will influence the front office's decision-making at that position. Ultimately, the Twins added four prospects to their 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 eligibility deadline: Severino, Camargo, Rodriguez and Martin. That means a number of other Twins minor-leaguers WILL be left exposed when the Rule 5 takes place on December 6th. As a reminder, the stipulation of adding a player through this process means that player must remain on the active MLB roster for the entire 2024 season, or be put through waivers and offered back to his original team. With this in mind, players who could potentially be selected by other teams include: DaShawn Keirsey, OF – 26-year-old can run and play center capably, posted productive numbers in the high minors. Could easily be viewed as a fourth outfielder candidate in the majors right now, with a bit of helium. Anthony Prato, IF/OF – Defensively versatile right-handed hitter with strong OBP skills. Posted a .990 OPS in the inflated Triple-A environment. But there are a lot of players coming off big seasons in that league. Not a prospect, per se, but a solid ballplayer. Michael Helman, IF/OF – Finds himself in a similar boat as Prato, but his relatively advanced age (27) might remove any perception of remaining upside. After a great 2022 in St. Paul, injuries derailed most of his 2023 season. Aaron Sabato, 1B – Former first-round pick has been a major disappointment, but his power and patience give him a semblance of offensive floor. A non-competing team could try running him out there at first to see what happens. Jose Salas, IF – He's 20 and coming off a horrible season at Single-A. It's clear Salas would be overmatched in the majors but given his ceiling, it's not unthinkable a team like Oakland or KC could try to stash him in a utility role for the summer to steal him away long-term. Ricardo Olivar, C/CF - Yes, catcher and center fielder. Olivar had a strong performance in Low-A Fort Myers and hit a lot of doubles. While his bat is certainly not ready for prime time, his intriguing defensive profile could make him appealing to some team. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for more updates on offseason developments and breaking news. View full article

Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are both prime candidates to be traded this offseason, but their demand on the market will be dictated by how needy teams view their relative appeal versus the free agent classes at second base and right field. Let's see how they stack up. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker and Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports The Twins recently confirmed that they'll be looking to trim payroll this offseason, which may create some challenges as they aim to address a set of clear needs on the roster. One of the most straightforward ways for the front office to create some spending flexibility is by trading one or both of Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. The longtime Twins mainstays are both under contract for around $10 million apiece next season; the club could clear as much as $20 million from the 2024 payroll by moving them and their salaries. Adding to the appeal of this idea: the emergence of standout rookies (Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner) at second base and right field, and the fact that both Polanco and Kepler boast solid trade value. That latter point is key, because as we've seen, this Twins front office isn't going to trade guys they like just for the sake of doing so. Both Polanco and Kepler are coming off solid seasons and, more importantly, the free agent alternatives at their positions aren't very compelling. The value Minnesota might get back in a trade for one or both of these veterans will be dictated by how much 2B/RF-needy teams are willing to give up, and that will be determined by how much more attractive Polanco and Kepler (and their contracts) are compared to signing a free agent for only money. Here's a look at how both players would rank on against the free agent classes at their respective positions, to give you an idea of the options being weighed by these teams. Right Field: Max Kepler vs. The Market Kepler's trade value: Following a breakthrough second half that re-established him as an All-Star caliber talent, Kepler has one remaining season under contract at $10 million. The short-term control could be viewed as a downside, but teams might also value the flexibility of a one-year deal versus locking into a 30+ year-old free agent for several years. In listing its position-by-position free agents, MLB.com ranks players by fWAR over the past two seasons (2022-23), so we'll add Kepler into that mix using the same lens. What we find is that Kepler outranks every single free agent right fielder, and is also the youngest of the bunch: Max Kepler (31 years old, 4.6 WAR) Teoscar Hernández (31, 4.3) Hunter Renfroe (32, 3.1) Jason Heyward (34, 1.8) Randal Grichuk (32, 0.4) Wil Myers (33, 0.3) Tyler Naquin (33, 0.1) Kevin Pillar (35, 0.1) Kole Calhoun (36, -1.3) Only Hernández, whom MLB Trade Rumors projected to get an $80 million contract coming off a fairly underwhelming season, is even in Kepler's range in terms of value over the past two years. And that's with Kepler being quite disappointing offensively for a large stretch of that period. The drop-off is especially steep for any team specifically targeting a left-handed hitting right fielder. Heyward, Myers, Naquin and Calhoun are not appealing targets at this stage of their careers – at least in anything resembling a full-time role. Kepler is the clear standout of the pack here. Second Base: Jorge Polanco vs. The Market Polanco's trade value: Polanco's contractual situation is even more favorable than Kepler's – he's controllable for two more years with a $12.5 million team option in 2025. Polanco has been an extremely consistent hitter, with an OPS+ of 110 or better in each of the past five full MLB seasons. Teams are sure to be wary of Polo's recent injury history, but a review of the free agent market at second base casts his risk level in a different light. Here's how Polanco ranks against this year's class by 2022-23 fWAR: Elvis Andrus (35 years old, 4.6 WAR) Jorge Polanco (30, 3.3) Whit Merrifield (35, 3.0) Tony Kemp (32, 1.5) Kolten Wong (33, 1.5) Adam Frazier (32, 1.3) Jonathan Schoop (32, 1.2) Rougned Odor (30, 1.0) Josh Harrison (36, 0.8) Hanser Alberto (31, -0.7) Leury García (33, -1.1) Pretty much everyone below the Merrifield line is a clear-cut backup-caliber player at this point, and no one's idea of an assertive solution to a middle-infield need. So then you've got Polanco near the top going against two mid-30s players in decline. Andrus technically edges Polanco in fWAR, but that's mostly because of a random 3.5-WAR last season that's an outlier from everything else he's done in the past six years. Merrifield has more appeal as a flex player than a full-time second baseman. No one in this class comes close to offering the offensive floor or ceiling of Polanco. With two reasonably priced years remaining under contract and a more consistent track record, I actually think he compares even more favorably against his class than Kepler against right fielders. Unsurprisingly, rumors are already circulating that the Twins intend to shop Polanco around this winter. Ultimately, his value in a trade will be dependent on how confident the team acquiring him is that Polanco can stay healthy. The veteran infielder played in only 80 games this year due to injury issues, and often looked hobbled down the stretch, although he was able to play in every playoff game. Even with the risk that comes attached to him, Polanco compares favorably to aging players like Andrus and Merrifield in free agency. Kepler's drawbacks are also healthily outweighed by his strengths in comparing him to the right field market. As the Twins reach the end of the road with these two long-tenured fixtures, they find a very favorable offseason environment for talking trade. Both players figure to be in high demand. View full article

Thanks for the comments! There are several on Julien. To be honest I thought hard about ranking but ultimately edged him more toward the "will not get traded" category - I think if they deal anyone to clear the 2B logjam, Polanco or Lee are far more likely. I do think he'd probably fit in around 5th/6th on this list.

If the Twins are thinking ambitiously about trade targets this offseason, these are the types of players they'll need to consider parting with. Here in the month of November, Twins Daily is providing offseason preview coverage with a phased thematic approach. Last week we took a deep dive on free agency possibilities; this week we're shining the spotlight inward with a focus on players currently in the Twins organization and how they might factor into the team's plans. Along with articles on the site that will explore this focus from every angle, we're also releasing a new section of the 2024 Offseason Handbook for TD Caretakers, which includes Seth's breakdown of organizational depth at every position, and a story from me ranking the 10 players in Twins organization who best blend tradeability with trade value. If you use the coupon code 2024HANDBOOK at checkout, all Caretaker packages are 25% off! You can read an excerpt from that story here, or become a Caretaker to access the whole thing! (If you are a Caretaker, you can scroll to the bottom of this page to download the full PDF for the chapter.) The Twins front office has not been shy about swinging big trades and giving up high-profile talent in the process. In the past we've seen them trade top pitching prospects Brusdar Graterol and Chase Petty to acquire frontline starters, and more recently, they gave up cherished team fixture Luis Arraez in the Pablo Lopez swap. These moves involved some painful losses, but they were also responsible for shaping the league-leading 2023 rotation. As the Twins endeavor to fill key gaps left in their starting pitching corps this offseason, history tells us there's a good chance they'll turn to the trade market. The other factor at play: Minnesota has a lot of players in the mix who look like plausible trade candidates. To their credit, the front office has built up some redundancies, or at least reasonable depth, to make certain quality players less essential to the future. The Twins have productive veterans they could be motivated to deal, as well as elite prospects they could use to aim exceptionally high in their hunt for controllable frontline pitching. Here's my take on 10 players who could realistically be traded this offseason, in order of how much value they might bring back by my estimation. I didn't include players who have no-trade clauses (Correa, Buxton) or players who I simply could not imagine being traded (Jeffers, MLB starting pitchers). I also didn't include players who are candidates to be traded, but have mostly neutral value because of their salaries (Farmer, Vazquez). 1. Brooks Lee, 3B Lee is not the Twins' top prospect, according to TD's rankings, but I do think he is their most valuable and viable trade chip. He's a truly elite prospect in the game – 18th overall in the season-ending MLB Pipeline rankings – and he is pretty clearly major-league ready or very close. Turning 23 next spring, Lee will be a cheap, controllable regular for years to come. He's established a solid floor while still offering an All-Star level ceiling. This blend of qualities makes him highly appealing to a wide range of rebuilding and contending teams. Placing Lee at the center of a trade package would put the Twins in the conversation for almost any hypothetical high-end pitcher on the market. And while losing him obviously would not be fun, we already find ourselves talking about how to make room for him in a crowded Twins infield next year. 2. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF Rodriguez is not quite the same caliber of prospect as Walker Jenkins (below), in absolute terms. However, I do think he has a special sort of intrigue that could make him alluring to front offices enamored by his rare skill set. To be clear, E-Rod's game is not without known flaws. He has a lot of swing-and-miss in his plate approach, with a 30% K-rate in three minor-league seasons helping contribute to a .242 batting average. He's also had some injury issues. But the corresponding strengths really jump out at you. He's a speedy, lefty-swinging center fielder whose power is uncommon and whose patience is almost unheard of. The 20-year-old has an absurd 21.3% career walk rate in the minors. While constantly facing more advanced competition, he has gotten on base more than 41% of the time. After leading the High-A Midwest League in OPS and finishing second in wOBA, Rodriguez is flying high, ready to tackle Double-A. His relative proximity to the majors adds to his value from a trade acquisition standpoint. 3. Walker Jenkins, OF If the Twins were to make their newly drafted top prospect available in trades, they could get a haul. And technically, that is an option on the table. An MLB rule change in 2015 made it so teams can trade draft picks in the same year they were selected, which was previously prohibited. Jenkins was a consensus top-five talent in a loaded draft, and followed up with an emphatic pro debut that puts him in the discussion as a top 10 global prospect. Still, it seems really unlikely the Twins would shop him already. And even if they did, any club drawn to his immense upside would also have to grapple with an added level of uncertainty compared to Lee and Rodriguez. Jenkins has played 26 total pro games and is likely multiple years away from the majors, even in a favorable scenario. Then again, when you're talking about the #16 prospect in baseball (per MLB Pipeline), you're talking about gargantuan trade capital. View full article

The prospect has been added to the 40-man roster following a monster 2023 campaign in which he tied for the minor-league lead in home runs. What's next for Yunior Severino? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge It feels like ancient history now, since the Atlanta Braves have come to be viewed as a model franchise, but six years ago they were embroiled in deep controversy. After it was learned the Braves were circumventing league rules around signing international amateur prospects, general manager John Coppolela received a lifetime ban from MLB and 13 minor-league players were released, free to sign with any club. Among them was Yunior Severino, an 18-year-old who had signed with Atlanta for $1.8 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2016. At the time, he was a smallish second baseman coming off a modestly impressive pro debut. Considered one of the best talents to become available in the sudden purge of Atlanta's system, Severino was in high demand before signing with the Twins for $2.5 million. Severino progressed gradually through the Twins system, starting at Elizabethton in 2018 and advancing all the way to St. Paul by the end of this past season. Like many prospects, his development was slowed by the lost COVID season. As Severino matured physically, he started transitioning from second base to third, and by late 2023 was often playing first base or DH. His future in the big leagues likely resides at one of those positions. But on the flip side, as Severino's growing frame has led to a drop in defensive value, it's also led to a massive spike in power. In 2021, between two levels of A-ball, Severino slugged .430 in 98 games. Prior to that point he'd hit 12 total homers in parts of three minor-league seasons. In 2022, Severino burst out of the gates at Cedar Rapids with 11 homers and a .572 SLG in 58 games. He moved up to Class-AA Wichita and added eight more homers while slugging .497 in the final 38 games. This season, between Double-A and Triple-A, the switch-hitter took his prodigious power game to new levels, launching 35 bombs and slugging .546 between the Wind Surge and Saints. It does bear noting that the Triple-A hitting environment was extremely favorable this year. To wit: his .511 slugging percentage after moving up ranked 61st among players with 100+ PA in the International League. His .832 OPS translated to a wRC+ of 100, exactly average. Nonetheless, it's easy to see the appeal of Severino for the Twins in their current situation: a productive power bat with remaining upside, and a potentially inexpensive solution at a position of need. The Twins are planning with a level of uncertainty at first base for 2024. Derek Falvey has been open in stating that it's a position he intends to address via trade or free agency this offseason. Interestingly, the addition of Severino to the 40-man roster will be somewhat restricting in terms of the front office's ability to make additions, so it's very conceivable he could be viewed as a short-term factor in the club's outlook. A 24-year-old switch-hitter who can mash from both sides and just led all the minors in homers? Sounds like a quality piece to have on hand. If Alex Kirilloff is slow to come back from his latest surgery, the Twins could theoretically give Severino a shot in the spring to take over as interim first baseman. Or they could position him as top-line depth at the position. The trouble with relying on Severino to fill a major role is that he represents an offensive profile the Twins might be trying to distance themselves from this offseason. He is very much an all-or-nothing slugger in the same vein as Joey Gallo. Severino's 36.6% K-rate with St. Paul ranked fifth among International League (AAA) hitters, and his 31.2% K-rate with Wichita ranked seventh out of 54 qualified hitters in the Texas League (AA). Unlike Gallo, Severino doesn't offset all the whiffs with a healthy dose of walks. He's just an undisciplined hitter with a big uppercut swing who is looking to hit the ball over the fence every time he steps to the plate. More than a quarter of Severino's hits in 2023 (27.5%) were home runs. Planning around Severino as a part of the mix in 2024 would mean leaning even harder into the power-and-strikeouts identity that defined the Twins this past year, to the frustration of many. It would also mean giving a chance to the prospect they gambled on a half-decade ago as he finally evolves into the kind of feared hitter the Twins envisioned at the time. View full article

From a position-player perspective, the Twins have a pretty simple and straightforward set of needs. They don't need catchers or infielders – if anything, it makes more sense to subtract at those spots via trade than add via free agency. They also don't need left-handed hitting corner outfielders. Same deal. So we'll filter those player types out of this list, which highlights top potential Twins targets. The front office does have a couple of clear needs to address, namely the roles filled in 2023 by Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano. The Twins are once again planning around major uncertainties at first base and center field. Running it back with one or both is among the many possibilities in front of the team. You will find plenty of options covered in our Offseason Handbook rundown of 15 free agent hitters who could specifically interest the Twins. Read on to find a few of those names or – if you're a Caretaker – all of them! (Player ages listed are as of Opening Day 2024.) Shohei Ohtani, DH Age: 29 2023 Stats: .304/.412/.654, 44 HR, 10.0 WAR Previous Team: Angels Wouldn't it be fun? Ohtani won't pitch next year after undergoing elbow surgery but plans on returning to the mound in 2025. Meantime he'll have to settle for being the most prolific slugger on the planet. This one-of-a-kind phenom will likely get a contract approaching or exceeding a half-billion dollars. While tying up the DH spot is not ideal, Ohtani would be a great fit for the Twins, and any other team in baseball. We can dream. Estimated Contract: 10 years, $480 million Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF Age: 28 2023 Stats: .307/.356/.525, 26 HR, 4.4 WAR Previous Team: Cubs Bellinger took a one-year contract with the Cubs and made good. Although not quite back to the MVP form of his 2019 peak, he was excellent in Chicago and will earn a big payday as a result. Bellinger is an especially intriguing target for the Twins because he plays both of the positions they most need to address (center field and first base). His price tag will be hefty, and his mysterious mid-career dropoff looms large as a concern in that light, but Bellinger is a star talent. He is also a nearly ideal player type for Minnesota's situation. If the franchise wanted to make a bold and aggressive push to maximize their contention window, this move would qualify. So would the next. Estimated Contract: 4 years, $80 million Rhys Hoskins, 1B Age: 31 2023 Stats: DNP Previous Team: Phillies Hoskins suffered a knee injury in spring training that cost him the entire 2023 season – unfortunate timing in a free-agent walk year. He will still score a sizable contract this winter thanks to his extraordinary offensive consistency preceding that mishap; in six seasons, he never posted an OPS+ below 111, averaging 36 homers per 162 games. Like Bellinger, Hoskins would be an emphatic statement signing for the franchise. Both are Scott Boras clients. Estimated Contract: 4 years, $68 million View full article