Nick Nelson

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Buyers or Sellers? The Reds have all the makings of an aggressive deadline buyer. They entered the season with high expectations and a large payroll, and as we move into mid-July they are within four games of first place in a division that looks winnable. They also have some clear needs that ought to be addressed if they hope to overcome the Pirates and Cardinals in the final months. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4731[/ATTACH] What They Need Unfortunately, the most glaring of those needs is a right-handed masher. The best hitters in Cincy's lineup -- Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Shin-Soo Choo -- all bat from the left side. Ryan Ludwick was expected to add punch from the opposite side but he suffered a major shoulder injury in April and won't return until at least mid-August. With Ludwick absent most the year, the Reds have gotten an ugly .234/.305/.354 hitting line from their left fielders. Clearly, Josh Willingham would have been a potential fit here, so the timing of his injury is unfortunate. Trevor Plouffe's right-handed pop could be of some interest, but the Reds already have a fairly similar third baseman in Todd Frazier. Another area where Cincinnati might be looking for deadline help, like most contenders, is the bullpen. The closer spot is already anchored by Aroldis Chapman, who might be the only left-handed reliever in baseball more dominant than Glen Perkins, but the Reds could use some help in the middle innings. Setup men Jonathan Broxton and Sean Marshall have been mired on the disabled list, and with Tony Cingrani's return to the rotation, Manny Parra is now the only southpaw available beyond Chapman. What Might Work Cincinnati's clearest need (that the Twins can help with) is a reliever who can be counted in high-leverage innings, preferably a lefty. The Reds probably won't pay the price for Perkins since they already have a closer, but Brian Duensing might make sense. Jared Burton or Casey Fien may also hold some appeal, as GM Walt Jocketty would likely welcome impact bullpen help in any form. Sleeper Targets J.J. Hoover - RHP - MLB - 25 years old If the Reds are willing to swap young promise for certified experience, Hoover could be in play. He's a rising young relief star with big stuff, but he's got some command problems and is mostly unproven. If the Reds were to try and make a play for Perkins, you'd have to imagine that Hoover -- a potential closer down the road -- would be involved. Daniel Corcino - RHP - Triple-A - 22 years old Corcino was viewed as a fringe Top 100 prospect coming into this year but he has come off the tracks in Triple-A, where he holds a 6.72 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 56/43 K/BB ratio in 83 innings. He definitely looks like a fixer-upper project, and he's young enough that it might be worthwhile. Jon Moscot - RHP - High-A - 21 years old A fourth-round pick out of Pepperdine University in the 2012 draft, Moscot impressed in his rookie-ball debut last year but has seemingly stalled out in Single-A, with a 1-11 record and 5.10 ERA. However, his solid peripherals (1.36 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 85 IP) tell a much different story. He's known as a strike-throwing ground ball guy in the Twins' mold, so he'd be a logical buy-low target. Ismael Guillon - LHP - Low-A - 21 years old Interesting upside, major control problems. Over 69 2/3 innings in Low-A this season, Guillon has piled up 84 strikeouts along with 67 walks. That's nearly a walk per inning. Dream Target Robert Stephenson - RHP - Low-A - 20 years old Stephenson was taken three picks ahead of Levi Michael in the 2011 draft. He emerged as a prominent pitching prospect with a strong pro debut last year, and has continued to build his stock by dominating the Midwest League this season, with a 2.97 ERA and 85/17 K/BB ratio in 66 2/3 frames. Among pitchers with 60 or more innings in the MWL, Stephenson's 11.5 K/9 rate leads the way (J.O. Berrios, at 10.7, ranks third). With Billy Hamilton scuffling in Triple-A, Stephenson might be Cincinnati's top prospect. That means he won't be going anywhere for less than a king's ransom.

I think Anthony Swarzak at least needs to have his name mentioned as a candidate to fill a rotation spot. He was a pretty good starting pitching prospect at one point, and has done everything asked of him out of the bullpen. He's still only 27. If it works out as badly as it did last time, you return him to the pen and what's lost?

Now we're judging players based on their high-end comps? Does that mean Byron Buxton is a bust if he's not Ken Griffey Jr? There's a long way between Torii Hunter and average. The guy has nine Gold Gloves.

What I'm loving are the recent strides in plate discipline. Since the start of June, 16 strikeouts and 18 walks. That's much more reflective of his success in the minors.

Who's going to want Pelfrey? Serious question. I don't know that he's better than the No. 5 on any contending team.

Hicks has a history of starting slow at a new level, and then adapting over time. It should come as no surprise that, as a 23-year-old shipped directly from Double-A, he struggled early on. But we're seeing clear signs of progress. For all the strange fuss made over him being called up after hitting .190 during a six-game rehab stint, he's looked pretty dang good at the plate since returning. I'm pleasantly surprised by the power he's flashed -- he's on about an 18-HR full season pace as a rookie. I do wonder if ultimately he'd be better off ditching the switch-hitting; his swing is so much better from the right side and he's currently getting only 20 percent of his PAs there. I don't get the negative reviews of his defense. He's misplayed a few balls, but hasn't let many drop that should have been caught. He has also made some flat-out spectacular plays, and nobody wants to run on his arm. If you guys are comparing him to Hunter and Gomez you're just not being realistic. Not everyone is going to be elite. I'd say Hicks is no worse than Span.

It's not ideal but I don't think we should get too down about it. No, the Twins are not going to be able to add much to their farm system this month, but on the bright side, their farm system as it stands is probably the best in baseball.

I don't accept his failures as a starting pitcher because he's not a starting pitcher. He has been consistently dominant against left-handed hitters for his entire career and his role -- now and going forward -- is as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen. Same goes for Thielbar, whom we're comparing him to. I'm not using selective splits, I'm comparing apples to apples.

You're joking, right? He made four relief appearances in 2011. Come on man. If you took a deeper look at his numbers this year, I don't think you'd come away with the conclusion that he's been "bad." His ERA isn't great, I guess.

He's been horrible as a starter. But that's not really pertinent.

Duensing has been a high-quality MLB reliever for about five years -- at times one of the game's elite lefty specialists. Thielbar was pitching for the St. Paul Saints two years ago. I'm not trying to bash Thielbar at all, because I think he's a great story and he certainly appears capable of sticking around as a big-league player. But people are losing sight of the forest for the trees here based on 16 innings of effective pitching.

People play through injuries all the time, on the Twins and on every other team. Do we have to search for someone to blame every time it occurs? Willingham is an aging player with a lengthy history of injuries. This kind of stuff just happens. It's part of the reason he didn't draw a ton of interest in FA, and also part of the reason his trade value was never as high as some would like to think.

I'll be interested to see how quickly the fan base turns on Thielbar after his inevitable rough patch hits. I don't have a problem with this switch given the way things are going, but ultimately Duensing is a better pitcher.

You mean her?

So a six-week recovery period would have Willingham back in late August, with a surgically repaired knee. Can't imagine he plays much left field when he comes back, right? He was looking pretty rough even before all this, and while I was watching Oswaldo Arcia (not a defensive stud in his own right) make a nice sprinting catch down the LF line last night that Hammer would have had no chance on, I realized that the Twins are going to have a pretty tough time justifying Willingham back in the outfield. Seems like the better plan is to have him DH next year, but then what of Doumit?

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]4669[/ATTACH]Buyers or Sellers In July of 2012, the Phillies found themselves in a position to sell for the first time in a decade. Running on a string of nine straight 85-plus win seasons, the Phils were 12 games out of first place in the NL East at this time last year, and they ended up unloading Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton and Hunter Pence in the days leading up to the deadline. By comparison, Philadelphia's current 9-game deficit in the standings doesn't look quite as daunting, but with the clearly superior Braves and Nationals well out front in the East, it looks like it is once again time to sell, sell, sell. What They Need Well, salary relief would probably be welcome. The Phillies are currently going nowhere with a $165 million payroll that ranks as the third-highest in the majors. They are saddled by the hefty price tags of aging vets like Cliff Lee ($25M), Ryan Howard ($25M), Roy Halladay ($20M), Michael Young ($16M), Chase Utley ($15M), Jonathan Papelbon ($13M) and Jimmy Rollins ($11M). Cole Hamels was signed to a $144 million extension last summer, so he'll be a centerpiece as they move forward, but you have to imagine that general manager Ruben Amaro would be open to moving pretty much any of the names listed above in return for younger talents that might be able to factor into the next wave. Papelbon, in particular, is likely to be a hot commodity; since the Twins aren't expected to make Glen Perkins available, Paps figures to be the premier closer on the market. What Might Work Since both teams are pretty well locked into "Sell Mode," there really isn't a great match here. The Twins have plenty of payroll flexibility but they're not necessarily close enough to contention to justify taking on one of Philly's bloated contracts, particularly one that is set to expire like Utley or Young. If the Phils were to take an interest in any player in Minnesota's organization, it would probably be a young, somewhat established player that could become a long-term staple, a la Ben Revere. With the veteran Young ready to hit free agency at year's end, and no clear replacement at the hot corner, Trevor Plouffe comes to mind. As was the case with Revere, Terry Ryan's price will likely be young pitching. Sleeper Targets John Sickels of SB Nation's Minor League Ball blog ranked Philadelphia's system No. 20 in baseball before this season, and the top prospects by and large haven't had very good years, so this isn't a premium group to rummage. Then again, that might increase the likelihood that some players could be pried away. Adam Morgan - LHP - Triple-A - 23 years old After raising his stock with a fine 2012 campaign, the southpaw has struggled in his first turn at Triple-A. He was 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA before being shut down with shoulder discomfort in mid-May. If he's able to return before the deadline, he could emerge as an intriguing buy-low candidate, but do the Twins really want to take on another iffy shoulder when they've already got one in Alex Meyer? Roman Quinn - SS - High A - 21 years old Another one of Philly's top prospects who is having a down year, Quinn has seen his OPS drop from .778 in Low-A last season to .669 in High-A this season. He has also committed a whopping 31 errors in 66 games, so his future at shortstop is very much in question. Nevertheless, the kid has some legit wheels. He stole 30 bases on 36 attempts last year and is already 32-for-41 in Lakewood. Ethan Martin - RHP - Triple-A - 24 years old Much like Trevor May, whom the Twins acquired from the Phillies in the Revere trade, Martin is a right-handed pitcher with good stuff that comes coupled with significant command problems. This year at Triple-A, he has averaged 5.4 BB/9 and his mediocre overall numbers make it tough to overlook the shoddy walk rate. Still, he was ranked by Baseball America prior to the season as the No. 80 prospect in baseball. Darin Ruf - 1B - Triple-A - 26 years old Ruf had never been much of a prospect until last year's power explosion in Double-A, where the right-handed slugger launched 38 homers and drove in 104 runs in 139 games, posting a 1.028 OPS. Even for a 25-year-old former 20th-round pick without much of a track record, those numbers cannot be ignored. He hasn't enjoyed nearly the same kind of success in Triple-A this year, with a .266/.343/.408 line to go along with seven homers in 77 games, but he has also reportedly been dealing with a sore hand. Dream Target Cliff Lee - LHP - MLB - 34 years old Normally we'll use this space to highlight a premier prospect who would be a tantalizing addition to Minnesota's system, but I'm going a different route. Lee's contract has become a major burden on the Phillies; he's set to make $25 million in each of the next two seasons and he has a $27.5 million option in 2016 that will become guaranteed as long as he stays healthy. Seeing as how the lefty has logged 200-plus innings in seven of the past eight years, that's a pretty safe bet (even if the option doesn't become guaranteed, it would cost a whopping $12.5 million to decline). The Twins, of course, have no major salary commitments beyond this year outside of Joe Mauer. With young, low-cost players likely to fill the majority of the roles in the next few years, the Twins could take on Lee's enormous contract and still probably fall below their recent payroll caps. Even though he's aging into his mid-30s, Lee is showing no signs of slowing down, as he's currently one of the National League's finest starters with a 9-2 record, 2.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Because he's pitching so well, the Phillies won't give Lee away for nothing, even with the massive salary attached. But if the Twins were willing to stomach the cost, he would add an elite veteran ace to the front of a young rotation, putting the club in position to be an instant contender in 2014. Of course, there is nothing in the history of the Twins or Terry Ryan to suggest that this kind of deal has any chance of materializing, and Lee's partial no-trade clause would probably rule out Minnesota anyway. Still, it's fun to dream on...

And get better results. That's why starting pitchers who can work in the mid-90s for an entire game are such valued assets.

With regards to the "importance of velocity" discussion... below, I've ranked every Twins pitcher by ERA, with their average fastball velocity accompanying (min. 25 innings, although I had to throw in Gibson because he fits so perfectly): Pitcher - ERA - FB velo (MPH) Glen Perkins - 2.05 - 94.6 Ryan Pressly - 2.63 - 92.9 Kyle Gibson - 3.00 - 92.2 Anthony Swarzak - 3.08 - 91.3 Sam Deduno - 3.32 - 90.2 Josh Roenicke - 3.38 - 91.1 Jared Burton 3.57 - 91.6 Casey Fien - 3.58 - 90.1 Brian Duensing - 3.81 - 92.0 Kevin Correia - 4.08 - 90.2 Scott Diamond - 5.40 - 88.2 Pedro Hernandez - 5.54 - 88.4 P.J. Walters - 6.03 - 89.7 Mike Pelfrey - 6.11 - 91.9 Vance Worley - 7.21 - 89.5 Now, let me be very clear that this is a vast oversimplification, and Pelfrey is an obvious exception, but you can't help being struck looking at that pattern. The difference between 89 and 91 is a mere fraction of a millisecond, but in baseball, those count. It means added margin for error. When you don't have great stuff or consistently precise command (as is the case with most of these current Twins' starters) you need that margin for error.

Plouffe hit 17 HR in 2010, 23 in 2011 and 24 in 2012. His injury might prevent him from getting there this year but he's on a 20-HR full-season pace, and that's without his typical mid-season spike, which still may come. I'd say that's consistent enough to establish 20 homers as his baseline.