Nick Nelson

Opponents against Deduno this year: .254/.325/.365. Regardless of the rest of your peripherals, you're almost assured to be effective if opponents have a sub-700 OPS against you. This has always been his strength. He gets wild and hands out way too many walks from time to time, but he doesn't get hit hard. Very refreshing when compared to the rest of this rotation. I can't say I'm totally surprised because I've been a proponent of his for some time now, but Deduno's emergence has certainly helped offset the disappointment surrounding Worley and Diamond, who we all hoped could prove themselves this year as legit options going forward.

Nice article! I enjoyed the statistical analysis. Good to see you back in writing mode.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2100-Five-Goals-For-The-Second-Half

Technically, the actual halfway point in Minnesota's season came and went back in the first week of July, when the Twins played their 81st game at home against the Yankees. Yet, with the All-Star Game and its requisite four-day break falling in mid-July, it's tidier to simply use the Midsummer Classic as a milestone bisecting the MLB season. So, now that we've passed both the official and unofficial halfway points in what is clearly going to be a losing campaign, where do we go from here? The playoffs might be out of the picture, but that doesn't mean there aren't positive things to be accomplished. Here in the final 70 games, winning takes a back seat to the following five priorities: 1) Limit Joe Mauer's innings behind the plate. Two years ago, Mauer's future as a catcher was very much in doubt as he battled mysterious leg problems and exhibited diminished skill defensively. He has authoritatively erased any such concerns since then, setting a career high in plate appearances last year and ramping up his workload behind the dish this year while once again remaining remarkably healthy. Mauer is one of the best hitters in the league, and his production is vastly more valuable when he's catching. To give you some idea of how much his offense (.320/.402/.473, 30 doubles, eight homers) stands out at the position, consider that Kansas City's Salvador Perez, with a .711 OPS and four homers in the first half, was one of the American League's two All Star reserves at catcher. At some point Mauer will need to transition away from catching duties, but it's in the Twins' best interest to delay that eventuality as long as possible. Therefore, I would recommend drastically reducing his reps behind the plate in the second half. Catching is very hard on the body, and while Mauer's ability to avoid the disabled list while crouching for 500-plus innings this year has been admirable, there's no reason to expose him to much additional wear and tear in the second half of a lost season. The best approach: Play Mauer at catcher often enough to keep sharp, and no more. Give him a heavy uptick in playing time at first base and DH, while letting an alternative option (even Drew Butera) handle the punishment of catching. Hopefully, this will improve Mauer's chances of serving as a regular catcher in future years where it might matter more. 2) Load up on future assets. The Twins are in sell mode, and Terry Ryan has made no secret of it. The chief objective for the next couple weeks, and beyond, will be adding as much minor-league talent to the system as possible in exchange for expendable parts. Justin Morneau, Jamey Carroll and other candidates are likely to fetch modest returns, but anything that Ryan is able to acquire would be a bonus when giving up expiring contracts. Of course, the only way the Twins are going to be able to add any impact prospects is by trading Glen Perkins, who figures to be one of the hottest names on the trade market. While the general manager is understandably reluctant to part with his elite closer, it's known that he is open to the idea should an offer sufficiently wow him. As should be the case. 3) Straighten out struggling youngsters. Aaron Hicks is hitting .197. Kyle Gibson has a 6.45 ERA. Oswaldo Arcia was recently demoted to the minors amidst a brutal slump. No, things haven't gone swimmingly for the group of promising rookies that have been ushered into the major-league fold this year, but that's not particularly surprising nor worrisome. The key in these final months will be doing whatever is necessary to set these individuals up for future success, because the Twins need them to be crucial components in a turnaround going forward. If that means more time in the minors (as in the case of Arcia), so be it. If it means working through it in the big leagues (as in the case of Hicks), all the better. We'll have to trust that the Twins know what's best for the development of these young talents. Hopefully each can finish the year in a good place. 4) Evaluate borderline talents. While the Arcia demotion is justifiable, I have a harder time understanding the decision to send Chris Parmelee to the minors. He has nothing left to prove in the International League, which he completely dominated last year, and the Twins are reaching a point where they need to make a decision on the 25-year-old. They don't want to enter next season in the same position they entered this one -- with Parmelee being an unknown quantity who has crushed Triple-A pitching but struggled in limited time against major-leaguers -- yet that is exactly the situation they're headed toward. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4842[/ATTACH] Fortunately, the outcomes have been better for fellow uncertainties Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier. Each has shown signs of becoming a solid long-term fixture, albeit with considerably more stability than Parmelee has enjoyed. I'd like to see plenty of all three, as well as Pedro Florimon, in the second half, so as to help inform offseason decisions regarding the positions they play. 5) Don't be afraid to lose. I'm certainly not advocating that the Twins try and lose. That's not how professional sports teams operate, nor should they. But all decisions should be aimed at the betterment of individual young players, not giving the team a better chance to win. At the end of the day, the only real difference between losing 85 games and 95 games is draft position. The Twins have had picks in the top four in each of the past two seasons, and with those picks they have added Byron Buxton -- now viewed as the consensus top prospect in baseball -- and Kohl Stewart -- ranked this week by Keith Law as the game's No. 30 prospect despite being drafted out of high school about a month ago. Circling back to the Parmelee example, if the Twins think he was struggling because he was overwhelmed and needed to get things figured out in a lower-pressure environment, fair enough. But if they felt his struggles were affecting the team's ability to win... at this point, who cares?

Solid piece from the always eloquent Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, outlining the decisions that face Terry Ryan and the Twins in the coming weeks. Nothing groundbreaking here, but a good afternoon read nonetheless. Minnesota Twins' decisions next two weeks could reshape franchise - TwinCities.com

Give it a rest Puck. It's quite obvious that quoting an entire post and writing "okay" adds nothing to a quality discourse, and Brock's not the only one to notice you doing it repeatedly. Let it go.

Myers has a .735 OPS. It's a huge stretch to think his presence was going to turn around their scuffling offense. And without Shields their pitching staff would be pretty mediocre too. Look, I wasn't a fan of the trade and it's not something I would have done. But it's easy to keep saying, "Let's hold onto these prospects and wait until the time is right." The Royals have been saying that for like 20 years. And frankly it's an example that scares me when it comes to the Twins.

A cautionary tale indeed. Kansas City's big moves have actually worked out quite well; Shields has been incredible and Santana has also been fantastic. Their pitching staff is massively improved. Yet all those young hitters that they expected to power their offense have collectively fizzled. With so many people simply assuming that the Twins will make a few big moves when the time is right to build around an upcoming core that will surely lead them back to contention, it's worth thinking about. That's always been my issue with this whole notion of making no effort to compete during the rebuilding process. You're forcing the fans to go through 3-4 years of hopeless misery with no guaranteed payoff down the road.

Sadly, that doesn't seem like a remotely safe assumption.

Ah, good call. Nevertheless, the point stands that the Yankees can extend a QO so it'd make little sense for them to trade him for mediocre Morneau and his expiring contract. Yes. He'd be well worth it. He's 27.

Then you can make a qualifying offer and collect a valuable draft pick. Of course, the Yankees can do the same thing which is why they're not going to trade him for Morneau.

This is pretty much how I view it. Absolutely the Twins need to get at least one premium prospect back in return for Perkins, but I guess I differentiate a bit between high-caliber prospects and guys like Archie Bradley and Allen Webster, who IMO are two of the best near-MLB-ready pitching prospects in the game. I think that's a tad too high to aim. Someone like Zach Lee might be more realistic and is certainly the type of piece I'd target.

None of those quotes fit what you said. Who's saying that the Twins "can't get much" for Perkins but should do it anyway? There's a large difference between not getting much and getting a blue-chip prospect. People are trying to be realistic. But I think the general assumption is that the return would be quite good, given his contract and the demand for his services. Multiple high-quality prospects at positions of need. I just don't think it's realistic to expect to get back a high-end pitching talent that is close to the majors. As Terry Ryan has frequently said, teams rarely part with that kind of asset, and I can't see anyone doing it for a reliever. I'd love to be wrong.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2089-Trade-Talk-Cleveland-Indians

Buyers or Sellers Just 1.5 games behind Detroit in the Central and three out in the Wild Card race, Cleveland has been the American League's biggest surprise. Staring up at a stacked Tigers squad that last year pulled away with a 44-32 record in the second half en route to a World Series berth, you'd better believe that the Indians are looking to add at the deadline. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4821[/ATTACH] What They Need The Indians could use some help at the top of the rotation, where the talented yet inconsistent Justin Masterson currently leads the way, and have been linked to Matt Garza among others. The Twins obviously can't offer anything in the way of high-end starting pitching. Cleveland may not be prepared to make the kind of aggressive moves necessary to garner that kind of talent, anyway. Although in the thick of things presently, this is a flawed team that is still in the midst of a rebuilding project geared toward fielding a title contender once Trevor Bauer (hopefully) figures things out and top prospects like Francisco Lindor and Danny Salazar are prepared to make an impact. It would be short-sighted to part with any premium prospect talent in the -- probably futile -- hope of catching the Tigers, but smaller deals aimed at improving, say, a bullpen that ranks 23rd in the majors in ERA would make more sense. This is where the Tribe might find a match in the Twins. What Might Work Intra-divisional trades are somewhat rare but Cleveland and Minnesota have hooked up on minor post-deadline deals in recent years, one sending Carl Pavano to the Twins and another sending Jim Thome to the Indians. If the two clubs were to connect again this year, I'd expect a similar non-blockbuster swap. Cleveland has been a little weak at DH, where 42-year-old Jason Giambi has been the principal recipient of at-bats. Ryan Doumit could be a fit there, although with Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher on hand, the Indians are already pretty well stocked on 1B/DH types. In the bullpen, any one of the Jared Burton/Casey Fien/Brian Duensing group is a candidate. Chris Perez is firmly locked in as the closer and is controlled through next year, essentially ruling Cleveland out as a Glen Perkins destination, but beyond Perez the Indians only have a couple reliable relief options. Vinnie Pestano, a bullpen ace over the last two years, was recently demoted from the setup role. Sleeper Targets Mitch Brown - RHP - Rookie League - 19 years old A second-round draft pick in 2012 out of Century High School in Minnesota, Brown enjoyed a solid pro debut last year but has had a tough follow-up in 2013. He started out in Low-A, pitched poorly, landed on the DL for six weeks, and has since been pitching (poorly) in the Arizona Rookie League. Potential buy-low guy with added appeal thanks to the local ties. Might not be in play for anything the Twins have to offer, even with the poor results this season. Jesus Aguilar - 1B - AA - 23 years old If the Twins are looking to add more depth to their future first base equation, Aguilar would be a worthwhile name to look at. Right-handed hitter with a little pop and the ability to draw a walk. He currently has a .760 OPS in Double-A. Tony Wolters - 2B/C - High A - 21 years old Mired behind four superior middle infield prospects in Cleveland's system (Lindor, Dorssys Paulino, Ronny Rodriguez and Jose Ramirez) Wolters has transitioned this year to catcher. Opposing teams have run wild on him, attempting a whopping 51 steals in 31 games, so who knows how long that experiment will last. The Twins have no such concerns about overloaded infield depth, and Wolters has shown some decent offensive ability in four pro seasons. Austin Adams - RHP - AA - 26 years old Interesting case, this one. A former shortstop in college who converted to pitching in the pros, Adams performed well as a starter in the low levels of the minors with a big fastball that ranked as the best in Cleveland's system. A shoulder injury cost him the entire 2012 season, but this year Adams is back pitching out of the bullpen, where he has racked up tons of strikeouts (49 in 34 innings) while registering a 2.65 ERA. His control is iffy and he's pretty old for a prospect (he'll turn 27 in August) but if the Twins were going to give up an established relief arm he'd be an interesting one to bring back. Dream Target Dorssys Paulino - SS - Low A - 18 years old Lindor, who is backing up his top prospect status with a great season at High-A, isn't going anywhere. Paulino, another shortstop prospect playing in the Midwest League as a teenager, might be a more realistic possibility, if the Twins could package enough talent. He's a long way from the majors and he's hitting just .238 this season, but Paulino has big upside and would instantly give the Twins a viable prospect at shortstop, something they have lacked for a long, long time.

This is always amusing to me. People come up with some extreme scenario that would never actually occur in real life, then use it to prove that the statistic is "completely worthless."

Has anyone said anything remotely resembling this?

Disagree. He was ranked No. 49 prior to this season by Baseball America and he's having maybe his best season as a pro (handful of clunkers in Boston notwithstanding).

Some of the names being thrown around here are not in the realm of realism. If anyone's expecting to get Archie Bradley or Allen Webster for Perkins, you're going to be pretty disappointed if/when a trade actually occurs. But the key point here is that teams aren't trading just for Perkins, but for his contract, which runs through 2016 at a very good price. I can't remember when the Twins have had such an appealing chip to dangle. This isn't a situation like Liriano where they're trying to unload a pitcher with mediocre numbers who's got two months left on his deal. With lockdown closers being coveted around the league and the prices of such players escalating in free agency, the Twins could create a bit of a bidding war for Perk. That will drive a nice return, and while it's not going to be a potential No. 1/2 starter who's close to the majors, I do think you can get multiple quality pieces.

And what good does that do the Twins? He still has the third-worst ERA in the majors, he has no trade value, and he's on a one-year deal. Pelfrey might have a solid second half for a team with no hope but the only thing that does is ramp up his market value going forward and take away opportunities from a younger guy who might be part of the future. The problem with Pelfrey was always that, as a guy 11 months removed from TJ, his best case scenario was "bad in the first half, better in the second half." On a one-year deal, that just wasn't going to do the non-competitive Twins any good. Now, if they had gone over someone with a little first-half upside (e.g. Scott Feldman) they could have possibly flipped him for something useful. I'm actually going to disagree with you here. I think the QS is a fine shorthand stat. Obviously it's imperfect (5 ER & 0 ER or 9 IP & 4 ER > 6 IP & 3 ER) but in the long run the 6IP/3ER barometer generally does a decent job of separating the good starts from the bad starts. It shouldn't be treated as gospel but it tends to give you a pretty accurate portrayal of how often the guy in question has pitched deep and given his team a solid chance to win.

Kevin Correia is being paid to be a No. 4-5 starter. In that context, he's been pretty good. League-average ERA and he's on pace for 200 innings. It's not his fault that those modestly decent stats make him the team's best starter. There is really no ground for ripping him at this point unless your expectations were totally out of whack. Pelfrey, on the other hand, was a horrible signing.