Nick Nelson

Last year, the rotation was an utter disaster, with Twins starters ranking 26th in the majors in ERA and WHIP. Short outings taxed an already ill-equipped bullpen and frequently put games out of reach before the offense had much of a say. It's not hard to see why these pitchers struggled so badly. Beyond injuries that hindered performance, the starting corps posted a lower strikeout rate than any other AL club; allowing that much contact in front of a substandard defense led to a league-worst 1,086 hits allowed. The front office didn't focus much on adding reinforcements during the offseason, signing only one new player who figures to be the fifth starter. Instead, they'll rely on improved health, effectiveness and accountability from the incumbents. Carl Pavano 2011 Stats: 222 IP, 9-13, 4.30 ERA, 102/40 K/BB, 1.36 WHIP [ATTACH=CONFIG]443[/ATTACH] While he's technically the team's No. 1 starter since he'll pitch on Opening Day, Pavano hardly fits the profile of a staff ace. At age 36, he is what he is; a veteran strike-thrower with a mature approach and an extremely hittable fastball. The best you can realistically hope for from Pavano is around 200 innings of serviceable performance. That's not without value, but it's also not what you want matching up against the top starters for contending clubs. Francisco Liriano 2011 Stats: 134.1 IP, 9-10, 5.09 ERA, 112/75 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The mercurial left-hander has been alternately dazzling and maddening over the years and is a perennial spring wild card. If he's on his game he completely changes the complexion of the Twins' rotation, providing a legitimate front-end talent to change the pace for a group that generally survives on sleekness rather than stuff. Following an abysmal 2011 campaign, Liriano has shown plenty of positive signs this spring, coming to camp in shape and delivering a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 18 innings while showing improved velocity and command. Of course, until the season gets underway, we won't really know which Frankie we're dealing with. Nick Blackburn 2011 Stats: 148.1 IP, 7-10, 4.49 ERA, 76/54 K/BB, 1.60 WHIP Last year marked the second consecutive season in which Blackburn pitched well enough early on but battled forearm issues, watched his performance deteriorate as the summer progressed and required arm surgery in the fall. His most recent procedure was more significant, and the hope is that it will finally enable him to return to the level of productivity that made him a solid mid-rotation innings-eater back in 2008 and 2009. Like Liriano, Blackburn is enjoying an excellent spring (1.50 ERA in three starts) and is actually missing more bats than we're accustomed to seeing. That all bodes well, but the right-hander needs to prove that he can keep his arm intact all year. Scott Baker 2011 Stats: 134.2 IP, 8-6, 3.14 ERA, 123/32 K/BB, 1.17 WHIP With the rest of the starters scuffling along, Baker enjoyed a career year in 2011, standing out from the contact-heavy staff by averaging 8.2 whiffs per nine. That mark would've ranked him among the league leaders if he had enough innings to qualify, which he of course did not as arm problems limited the righty to 24 frames after the All-Star break. It was the second straight season in which he's been slowed by elbow soreness, and the issue has already reemerged this spring, feeding the belief that he won't be ready for the start of the year. If Baker can't go, it seems likely that either Anthony Swarzak or Liam Hendriks would occupy his spot in the rotation. Those are decent enough fill-ins, capable of Kevin Slowey type production, but either would represent a sizable drop-off from Baker in his element. Jason Marquis 2011 Stats: 132 IP, 8-6, 4.43 ERA, 76/43 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The lone newcomer in this year's starting pitching equation, Marquis has a track record that screams "mediocre at best." Historically, he hasn't racked up many strikeouts and hasn't limited hits or walks particularly well. He's also spent his entire career in the more pitcher-friendly National League. The nice thing about the 33-year-old hurler is that if he can hang in there and keep his sinker over the plate, he gives the Twins a fourth rotation member (along with Pavano, Liriano and Blackburn) who tends to induce ground balls at a steady clip. Hopefully, this will reduce the number of drives landing in the gaps and over the fence at Target Field. Unfortunately, with Marquis looking beyond shaky in his early spring performances and currently away from the team indefinitely to tend to a serious family matter, he can't be counted on for much at this point.

Likely Starter: Ryan Doumit 2011 Stats: .303/.353/.477, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 17 R, 0/1 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]430[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer No team has everything set in stone with two weeks left in spring training. For the Twins, with uncertainties surrounding several players, plenty is subject to change between now and Opening Day. For example, last week I profiled the three outfield spots, and over the weekend it was revealed that two of those positions will be filled by different players than previously thought. Designated hitter is a particularly difficult position to analyze at this point. Ryan Doumit is expected to be the starter on April 6, and ideally he'll play there frequently so as to limit the exposure of his weak glove at various positions. Yet, his versatility was a big reason Doumit was signed, and there are a number of other players who figure to draw frequent starts at DH, making the position a likely revolving door. There was talk from Twins officials during the offseason that the club might slot Justin Morneau at DH often this year in order to protect his health. The fact that he's playing very little first base in Ft. Myers with the season rapidly approaching would seem to raise the likelihood of that possibility. For his part, Morneau downplays the significance and says he still plans on playing the field regularly. I suspect that if he's healthy, Morneau will spend a fair amount of time at time at designated hitter but will also play some first and will get plenty of days off. Doumit and Joe Mauer will likely be the other main contributors at DH. If Morneau and Mauer are swinging the way they're capable of and Doumit picks up where he left off last year, that gives the Twins three very solid hitters to rotate. If one of those three becomes unavailable, or if Mauer and Morneau are lucky enough to spend most of their time in the field, it's possible that guys like Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes could get some starts at DH. These guys all bring enough upside with the bat to justify the assignment. While the position may lack stability this season, that doesn't mean it won't be a strength. The Twins shouldn't have much trouble finding designated hitters who can hit. Predicted Hitting Line for Doumit: .275/.345/.415, 12 HR, 50 RBI

Likely Starter: Josh Willingham 2011 Stats: .246/.332/.477, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 69 R, 4/5 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]416[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Trevor Plouffe, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni When he hasn't been needed elsewhere, Michael Cuddyer has spent most of the past six years roaming right field for the Twins. No player has spent more time in front of the big blue baggy and limestone overhang. Cuddyer was a fan favorite, a media darling and a community staple. He was also a productive player, putting up an .806 OPS while averaging 18 homers and 79 RBI during that six-year span. The notorious clubhouse magician pulled off a final disappearing act this winter, ending his 15-year tenure in the Twins organization to sign a lucrative contract with the Rockies. The man replacing Cuddy has his work cut out for him. Josh Willingham ought to be up to the task. In fact, there's a good chance that he'll outperform Cuddyer. During the aforementioned six-year span, Willingham accumulated a superior .838 OPS while averaging 22 homers and 72 RBI. Last year he hit 29 bombs – a mark Cuddyer has topped only once – while playing his home games in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park. Willingham has been an extremely consistent middle-of-the-lineup slugger with more balanced splits than Cuddyer, who mashed lefties but often struggled against righties. The newly acquired outfielder also brings pure pull power, making him a better fit in Target Field than his predecessor. In his quest to provide the Twins with above-average production in right field, Willingham will face two key barriers: injuries and age. He's done a good job of avoiding major ailments, playing in more than 100 games every year since becoming a regular, but he's also missed an average of 34 per season. Unless Justin Morneau can bounce back in a big way, the Twins don't have another player who can pack the kind of pop that Willingham does, so they'll need him in the lineup. Willingham is also 33 years old, putting him past what is typically considered to be a player's physical prime. There are plenty of guys who remain productive well into their mid-30s and he looked plenty sharp last year, but this is an age where many begin to see their bat speed and athleticism decline. I suspect that age, injuries and an even tougher ballpark will take a toll on Willingham to some degree, but his track record is outstanding and he's a great fit in this lineup. It will be fun to see how many he can yank into the Home Run Porch at Target Field. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Willingham: .250/.340/.450, 20 HR, 75 RBI

Likely Starter: Denard Span 2011 Stats: .264/.328/.359, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 37 R, 6/7 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]407[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni A good case can be made that during his first two seasons in the majors, Denard Span was not only one of the most underrated players on the Twins, but in all of baseball. Between 2008 and 2009, Span hit .305/.390/.422 with 41 steals and 63 extra-base hits in 238 games. A young, cost-controlled leadoff man with a .390 OBP, a bit of pop and the athleticism to competently play center field? That's not a solid contributor, that's a stud. Span's drop-off in 2010 was staggering. With Carlos Gomez gone, he assumed full-time duties in center and saw his OPS drop by 130 points, effectively dropping his designation from elite to ordinary. It appeared that Span had reemerged as a true asset at the top of the order last year, as he sat with a .300/.367/.392 hitting line on June 6, but that day he suffered a concussion in a home plate collision and he was never the same afterward. He went on to hit .132 over two stints in August and September, finishing with an OPS nearly identical to that mediocre 2010 campaign. Twins fans know all too well how long the after-effects of a concussion can linger, with Justin Morneau still not right 20 months after his incident in Toronto. Span carries his own concerns, especially in light of the migraine headaches he'd dealt with prior to being concussed, and he admitted recently that he still experiences the occasional bad day. Fortunately, the center fielder's performance in spring training thus far has done nothing but inspire confidence that he can shake off the injury concerns and return at least to the form he showed in the early months of last season. Through 11 exhibition games, Span is hitting .355. He's shown a great plate approach with four walks and only two strikeouts, he's been aggressive on the bases with five steal attempts, and he even came away from a wall collision in the outfield altogether unscathed. We often caution not to place too much stock in spring numbers, but Span's play in Ft. Myers has been about as encouraging as one could hope for. That doesn't mean he's out of the woods, of course. If the head problems become an issue again for Span, or if he suffers a different injury, the Twins will need to be prepared. In a short-term scenario, Ron Gardenhire could probably just shift a few players around and plug in someone like Rene Tosoni, Ryan Doumit or Darin Mastroianni. If the need is more long-term, it's likely that the Twins would call upon Joe Benson, a top prospect in the organization who – like Span – is having a very strong spring. Benson has posted an OPS above .800 in three straight minor-league seasons and got a taste of the majors last September. At age 24, he appears close to big-league ready. He leads the Twins with 10 RBI in Grapefruit League play after blasting a two-run homer against the Tigers yesterday. His high strikeout totals will be an ongoing concern, but his combination of patience, power and flat-out athleticism are quite intriguing. If Span or another outfielder goes down for a lengthy period of time and Benson continues to impress, it's likely that he'd get the call, either in center or in a corner spot with Revere shifting to the middle. He's one of the organization's only high-quality prospects in the upper levels of the minors, making the outfield an area of relative depth for the club. Of course, the Twins and Benson will both be better off if he's able to log some experience in Triple-A – where he's yet to take a single at-bat – and come up on his own terms rather than out of necessity. The hope is that Span can keep the bad days at bay and help facilitate that process. I'm optimistic that he will. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Span: .280/.350/.370, 4 HR, 50 RBI

When the Twins signed Jason Marquis to a one-year, $3 million contract back in December, Terry Ryan offered this description: "He's a groundball machine and he throws the ball over the plate." That characterization was only partially accurate. While the sinker-balling right-hander has induced grounders at an extreme rate, painting him as a consistent strike-thrower never passed the sniff test. As Aaron Gleeman astutely noted when the Twins signed him, Marquis' career walk rate is identical to that of Francisco Liriano, who is no one's idea of a control artist. Sure enough, the 33-year-old's control problems have been on full display this spring. After an erratic outing today in which he walked two and hit a batter in four-plus innings, Marquis leads the Twins with nine walks (against only five strikeouts) and three wild pitches in 12 2/3 frames, contributing to an ugly 8.53 ERA. When he stumbled in his Twins debut, the hope was that Marquis would rebound rapidly and start to settle in as March progressed. Unfortunately, we haven't seen that. He's routinely falling behind hitters, resulting in multiple walks in every start and tons of hits allowed. Through four turns, Marquis owns a 2.21 WHIP and still hasn't been able to record an out in the fifth inning. He's well behind where he needs to be at this point and the coaching staff has to be growing concerned. With three weeks left to go until Opening Day, he's going to need to work closely with Rick Anderson to get the command issues sorted out. [ATTACH=CONFIG]352[/ATTACH]

Likely Starter: Ben Revere 2011 Stats: .267/.310/.309, 0 HR, 30 RBI, 56 R, 34/43 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]346[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Trevor Plouffe, Darin Mastroianni, Brian Dinkelman Last year the Twins were the least effective team in all of baseball at converting batted balls into outs. With a pitching staff that allows a ton of contact, that's an enormously troubling statistic. Lining up Ben Revere as the regular left fielder should certainly benefit the Twins on the defensive front. He and Denard Span can team up to track down almost everything hit in the air to the left side of Target Field's spacious outfield. But how much are the Twins giving up offensively by going with Revere as their starter in left? And if he doesn't start reaching base with greater frequency, how long will his leash be? I've seen plenty of skepticism regarding Revere's long-term outlook, and it's not hard to see why. Lacking power, patience and arm strength, his skill set is clearly limiting – particularly for a corner outfielder, which is what he'll be as long as Span is holding down center. Yet, I'm pretty bullish on Revere, for a number of reasons. While his weaknesses are well established, he also has some promising strengths. He's a contact hitter who gets out of the box and down the line with extreme quickness, and he is blazing fast. He set a Twins rookie record with 34 stolen bases last year, and his range in the outfield is truly spectacular. At 23, I think he still has room to grow. Even if he's one of the best defensive left fielders in the league, the .619 OPS that Revere posted in 2011 simply won't cut it. He needs to elevate that number, and since he's not likely to start drawing walks or racking up extra-base hits, he'll need to do it by significantly improving his batting average. He can help himself in that area by lifting the ball more (his 68.5 percent ground ball rate led the Twins last year) and bunting for hits (he's only attempted 16 career bunts). The alternative to Revere in left, when the Twins face a tough lefty or when Ron Gardenhire wants more offense, will be Trevor Plouffe. A first-round draft pick back in 2004, Plouffe had a breakout season in the minors last year, posting a 1.019 OPS in Rochester, and he showed decent pop during his time in the majors with 27 extra-base hits in 320 plate appearances. Defensively Plouffe is a major question mark, given that he'd never played in the outfield prior to 2011, and his bat is hardly a proven commodity. He does offer some interesting offensive upside, though, and at the very least he's a nice guy to have around as a pseudo-platoon partner for Revere. I'm probably higher than most on both Plouffe and Revere, but there's no denying the fact that one is a converted shortstop who never hit much prior to last year and one profiles as a prototypical fourth outfielder. It's difficult to envision left field as a major strength between these two, but both are young players who offer very different benefits and I'm fairly intrigued to see how this little experiment will turn out. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Revere: .280/.330/.340, 1 HR, 30 RBI

Likely Starter: Jamey Carroll 2011 Stats: .290/.359/.347, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 52 R, 10/10 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]322[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon Welcome Jamey Carroll, the latest passenger on Minnesota's never-ending shortstop carousel. Since Cristian Guzman's departure, the Twins have opened with six different players at the position in seven seasons. Their Opening Day shortstops have ended up averaging 68 starts there, and only one – Jason Bartlett in 2007 – actually started over 100 games in a season. At this point, the Twins would settle for even short-term stability, and that's what they're seeking in Carroll, a 38-year-old journeyman signed to a two-year deal during the offseason. The words "stability" and "journeyman" might seem odd when coupled in the same sentence, especially when the player in question is almost 40. Indeed, Carroll – who didn't reach the majors until he was 28 – is now with his fifth organization and has profiled as a part-time utility man for most of his career. These facts leave plenty of room to question whether he can be the steady veteran rock that the Twins desperately need him to be. But if you look at his most recent history – and that seems fair – it isn't difficult to see why the Twins decided to go with him. Although he had made only 46 career starts at shortstop prior to joining Los Angeles in 2010, he exceeded that number in both of his seasons with the Dodgers and was often used as a regular there when Rafael Furcal wasn't available. Carroll's offensive numbers over those two seasons were respectable enough, as he made up for a complete lack of pop (.054 Isolated Power) by hitting .290 both years and getting on base at a .368 overall clip. It will be interesting to see whether he can maintain those numbers while batting second regularly in an AL lineup, but if he can he'll be a serviceable hitter. Defense is the bigger question mark. There are differing opinions on how he'll hold up at the toughest infield position full-time, but clearly he wasn't thought of as a shortstop prior to arriving in Los Angeles at age 36. Even in the minors, Carroll played nearly twice as many games at second than at short – that just doesn't happen with great middle infield defenders. It's possible that the veteran has turned a corner and improved his skills enough to earn the increased tread at shortstop over the past couple seasons, but that seems unlikely for a player in his late 30s. I'd guess that more than anything it was his level of experience, his reputation as a good clubhouse presence and his almost non-existent injury history that served as impetuses for Terry Ryan to take the plunge early in the offseason. Those aren't insignificant factors, but none of them make Carroll particularly likely to excel as a full-time major-league shortstop here in the twilight of his career. Of course, the Twins would settle for a guy who stays healthy and doesn't kick the ball around given the disaster that took place last year. What's alarming is that if Carroll doesn't last, we may be looking at a similarly painful situation this summer, because the depth at this position is brutal. Who else can play shortstop for the Twins? Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Trevor Plouffe got their chances last year and proved to be defensive liabilities. Ryan has stated that the Alexi Casilla experiment at short last year "didn't really work out." Who else is there? Brian Dozier, who hasn't played above Double-A and is considered by many to be destined for second? Pedro Florimon, the offseason waiver pickup with a .676 OPS in the minors and 26 errors in Double-A last year? The Twins are trying their luck with a 38-year-old career utility man as their starting shortstop, and all of his backup options appear to either belong at second base, in the minors, or both. The carousel moves on, as this organization's continued inability to properly address the most important position on the diamond keeps on coming around to haunt them. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Carroll: .260/.335/.305, 0 HR, 20 RBI

Likely Starter: Danny Valencia 2011 Stats: .246/.294/.383, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 63 R, 2/8 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]314[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Luke Hughes, Sean Burroughs, Steve Pearce, Tsuyoshi Nishioka With a lineup that will feature as many as five players who pose virtually no threat to hit the ball over the fence, the Twins are going to be heavily reliant on a few bats in the middle of the lineup to produce some pop in 2012. Among the incumbents, the only player who even reached double digits in home runs last year is Danny Valencia. He led the Twins in RBI and ranked second in homers, though that spoke more to the general struggles of the offense than to his success. Make no mistake: the Twins need Valencia's power. But in order to win over a coaching staff that seemingly soured on him somewhat last year, he'll need to master some of the more basic elements of his game. After an impressive debut in 2010, the third baseman was noticeably worse both in the field and at the plate last year. The hitting struggles are less worrisome – for reasons I'll address momentarily – but Ron Gardenhire will not tolerate a passive approach on ground balls. If Valencia doesn't start doing a better job of keeping his head down when moving laterally and aggressively charging slow rollers, he'll start giving way to someone who will, at least one a part-time basis. I have little doubt of that. If he does show improvement on the defensive side, more closely resembling the form he showed during his rookie campaign, he's poised to be a solid regular and key right-handed bat in the lineup. Although his OPS dropped by 120 points from 2010 to 2011, Valencia remained largely the same hitter: aggressive and pull-happy with enough strength to place the ball in the left field bleachers in his home yard. His tendency to pull the ball became more pronounced last year, contributing to a dramatic drop in batting average. There's a give-and-take there; turning on the ball has proven to be the best bet for a righty hitter to clear the Target Field fence and nearly all of Valencia's 22 career homers have gone to straightaway left. His desire to hit for power should not necessarily be discouraged, but swinging for the seats can breed bad habits. He needs to find a balance. If he can accomplish that while sharpening up in the field, Valencia is one of the few players Twins fans won't have to worry about in 2012, especially considering that he's a rare example of a guy that doesn't carry major injury concerns into the season. If some of his negative patterns from last season persist, however, the third-year infielder will need to start worrying about losing playing time to the likes of Luke Hughes or Sean Burroughs. By all accounts, Valencia is determined not to let that happen, and is entering this season with increased openness to coaching advice and adjustments. There's no question that he's got the talent and confidence to succeed in the majors. I expect a solid if unspectacular campaign. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Valencia: .280/.330/.430, 15 HR, 80 RBI

Likely Starter: Alexi Casilla 2011 Stats: .260/.322/.368 [ATTACH=CONFIG]302[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Luke Hughes, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Brian Dinkelman, Brian Dozier We've been down this road before. Alexi Casilla was the Opening Day starter at second base in 2009, and at shortstop last year. In neither instance did he hang on for long. With a career .185/.232/.219 hitting line in April, the Dominican infielder has made a habit of stumbling out of the gates, and there's no question that it's hurt him. When a player shows no signs of life early in the season, fans are quick to pass judgment and coaches begin looking at other options. Most would agree that Casilla has the tools to be a starting middle infielder in the big leagues. He's got the athleticism, quickness and arm strength to hold his own defensively, and he's shown flashes of competence at the plate. Putting it all together for extended periods of time has been a challenge, but the Twins are giving him another chance this year. In all likelihood, it'll be his last chance. After struggling through a putrid first month last year, Casilla hit .281/.344/.407 the rest of the way. The Twins are hoping he can approach that sort of production this time around, and with a modest a price tag of $1.4 million, he's worth the gamble. He can't be relied upon to stay in the lineup all year though, given that he's never even made it to the 100-game mark before, so depth at this position will be key. Luke Hughes figures to fill in at second from time to time; he offers some offensive upside and will likely pinch-hit for Casilla in tight games. Tsuyoshi Nishioka would be a somewhat capable backup if he makes the roster. In the event of a significant injury to Casilla, the Twins might call up Brian Dozier and hand him the reigns. All in all, there are a number of solid options to plug in at second. For that reason, and because they've been around the block with Casilla several times before, the leash might be shorter than ever. Another horrible April, combined with a quick start for Dozier in Rochester or some early flashes from Hughes, could put Casilla on the hot seat quickly. With that being said, he may benefit from lowered expectations; as the No. 8 hitter, all the Twins need him to do is hit a little bit and make plays in the field. If he can stay focused and healthy, there's no reason to believe he can't do that. He'll have no shortage of motivation, as this is a pivotal year in the 27-year-old's career. Predicted Hitting Line for Casilla: .270/.330/.350, 3 HR, 30 RBI