Nick Nelson

He was with his WBC team for a matter of weeks and pitched a total of 13 innings in that tourney. Pretty huge stretch to suggest that his short time there was entirely responsible for a sustained turnaround that has lasted through 12 starts against major-league competition. You have a consistent tendency to oversimplify the adjustments made by players and their coaches. It's a complicated and ongoing process. I'm sure his time in the WBC contributed to his improved results (in no small part because of the confidence he gained) but come on.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]5036[/ATTACH]I've been bullish on Samuel Deduno, and it's been a point of disagreement between myself and some other generally like-minded Twins writers. Aaron Gleeman has repeatedly warned against buying into the right-hander's small-sample success and the Geek recently lamented the idea of a long-term contract. It's easy to see why any stat-savvy observer would hold reservations. Deduno has performed poorly in a number of key peripheral categories, namely strikeout-to-walk ratio, which many -- myself included -- view as one of the most important indicators for pitcher success. But, as I've often said, Deduno is a unique and unconventional case, so in assessing his value going forward, I think it is wise to set aside the statistics we tend to lean on, and look at him through a different lens. The metric that largely causes skepticism with regards to Deduno, as mentioned above, is his K/BB ratio. Last year, in 79 innings with the Twins, the righty totaled nearly as many walks (53) as strikeouts (57), which is almost always a sign that disaster is on the horizon. This year he's cut down on the walks, lowering his BB/9 rate from 6.0 to 3.3*, but he's lost a bunch of strikeouts in the process, with his K/9 dropping from 6.5 to 5.0. While improved, his 42/28 K/BB is not close to the 2-to-1 ratio you like to see at a minimum. (*By the way, this probably deserves a post of its own, but I'm thinking Rick Anderson might deserve a TON of credit for Deduno's unprecedented improvements with control. I remember hearing that the pitching coach was working very closely with the hurler, running two bullpen sessions between each start. The extra attention appears to be paying off because Deduno has never maintained a BB/9 rate below four... anywhere, even in the minors. For all the criticism aimed at his failures with Francisco Liriano -- another maddeningly erratic Latin pitcher who is now succeeding elsewhere -- Anderson is really redeeming himself with Deduno.) But is K/BB ratio the vitally important indicator for Deduno that it is for most other pitchers? His game is based more on inducing weak contact than missing bats, and I've always felt that he can get away with handing out more walks because he's so tough to square up. After all, a free pass only costs one base at a time. Even with a heightened number of base runners, it's tricky for an opposing offense to push guys across the plate without big hits doing the damage. Deduno is holding opposing hitters to a .245 average and .351 slugging percentage. This dynamic isn't captured well by popular sabermetric measures. The prevailing wisdom behind fielding independent metrics assumes that any pitcher should be expected to allow a BABIP around .300, but Deduno registered a .267 mark last year and is at .272 this year. He appears to have a sustainable skill for limiting damage on balls in play, thanks in large part to his extreme ground ball tendencies (he is the only pitcher in the majors with 60-plus innings and a GB rate above 60 percent, and I'd wager that nobody induces more weakly hit nubbers). Many reasonable observers are still waiting for the other shoe to drop for Deduno, but he has by and large been a very effective starter in the majors over the last two years. Last season his ERA sat at 3.55 before a rough patch in his final three outings shot that mark up above four. This year he owns a 3.18 ERA through 12 turns, and he's pitched into the seventh in all but three starts. There's no guarantee that this will keep up, but I'm through looking for reasons to expect a drop-off. Between his outstanding numbers at Triple-A, his dominance in the World Baseball Classic and his continuing improvement at the major-league level, I'm a believer in Deduno, even if that means moving out my comfort zone analytically. Once you've come around to the idea of Deduno being an ongoing fixture, you'll feel a lot better about the short-term future of this rotation. Despite being 30 years old, Deduno won't even be arbitration eligible until 2015 at the earliest, and he'll remain under team control for several years beyond. Late bloomers can have their advantages. And unlike with R.A. Dickey, it looks like the Twins might have opened the door for this one at the right time.

The value in trading Morneau is that it opens playing time for guys who may be factors going forward and need to be on the field. I don't expect to get anything meaningful in return, especially with the way he's played in July.

Morneau did a lot of great things during his time in Minnesota, but ultimately his will go down as a tale of what could have been. He was right in the middle of his prime and -- as John notes -- playing the best baseball of his career when the unfortunate concussion mishap occurred. I felt so, so confident that he was going to return to form this year. It's been tough to watch, and it'll be tough to watch him go.

Sounds like the cement has finally settled.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]4986[/ATTACH]A slow start in Double-A had suddenly become a distant memory. Miguel Sano was on fire, enjoying his best stretch in what has been an incredible season. Over the course of five days, he had collected nine hits -- including two doubles and four homers -- with five walks and 10 RBI. In less than week's time, the top prospect had raised his OPS in New Britain from .738 to .895. Following this blistering hot streak, Sano rightfully became the center of discussion in Twins Territory, but unfortunately it wasn't his play on the field that was garnering attention. Instead, it was his behavior following the last of those four homers. After launching a majestic bomb last Tuesday, the 20-year-old stood in place for a good five seconds admiring his work, and then smugly flipped his bat before engaging in an exceedingly slow trot around the bases. Brash. Cocky. Provocative. Frankly, they are qualities that the Twins could use, even if Sano's action itself could hardly be condoned by anyone. While I think the issue is overblown, there has clearly been something amiss in a Minnesota clubhouse guided by the leadership of the quietly dominant Joe Mauer and the folksy, amiable Ron Gardenhire. I don't like what Sano did, particularly because he's putting himself in danger by showing up opposing pitchers in that manner, but I don't mind the sentiment behind it. This is a competitive sport. It's me against you, and I'm better. I'm going to win. Also, it sounds like there was some sour history between Sano and the pitcher, Bobby Lanigan (a former teammate in New Britain), so that adds another mitigating factor. While this might be the most extreme example yet, Sano has a history of showboating on the field. Considering that he's one of the premier talents ever to emerge from his native country, a top three prospect in baseball, and still a kid at 20 years old, it's naive to think he won't flash an ego and play with some swagger. The Twins know that, and I don't think they're terribly bothered by it. Pimping the home run was not, by itself, an especially worrisome act, but it's also not what resulted in an extended benching at the behest of his manager. Patrick Reusse detailed the events that took place after the game in an illuminating column: There is where you can't help but get a little concerned. The descriptions here are vague but this sounds like something ranging between disrespect and outright insubordination, not only toward his team's manager but toward his organization's general manager. It's a bad sign and something that the Twins are right to punish and strongly discourage, even if the length of the benching -- which lasted four games, until the third baseman returned to the lineup Sunday -- has been criticized by some. Sano's incident adds to a growing trend of problematic attitude outbursts from key prospects in the Twins' system. On the same day as the "Pimpgate" scandal materialized, Oswaldo Arcia was removed from a game in Rochester for lack of hustle; Arcia's boisterous personality also created the occasion stir during his time in Minnesota. Stellar second base prospect Eddie Rosario was benched for a few games in Ft. Myers back in May for what was cryptically termed "his approach to the game." In his previously linked article, Reusse observes this trend and calls out the growing need for a high-ranking Latin American coach in the organization, one who could perhaps better relate with these young men and help set them on the right path. It's a great point. I love the passion I've seen from some of these guys. Arcia is a joy to watch, in large part because he wears his excitable emotions on his sleeve. I enjoyed hearing a story about Sano shouting into the opposing dugout that they'd better respect him when he smashed a long home run immediately after a pitch had buzzed past his head in Ft. Myers back in April. The makeup of the Twins roster has reflected the "Minnesota Nice" stereotype all too well over the years, with a clubhouse that could best be described as vanilla. I wouldn't say there's necessarily anything wrong with that, but I also think many Twins fans will welcome an added edge, which these fiery youngsters seem to bring to the table along with considerable skill. At the same time, it needs to be kept in check, so I have no problem with the measures taken to ensure that these prospects remain respectful and avoid long-term friction with the organization. It's important to remember that these truly are still kids, adjusting to a new culture and set of rules. Sano returned to the New Britain lineup Sunday evening and went 1-for-3 with a pair of walks. I suspect his brief timeout will ultimately be forgotten in the narrative of this breakout season, but hopefully the lesson learned will not.

Haven't seen this linked here yet (apologies if I missed it). Reusse's column today sheds some additional light on the situation, and it's not good. Twins need a coach from Latin America, pronto | StarTribune.com

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]4956[/ATTACH]With six innings of one-run ball against the Angels on Wednesday, Mike Pelfrey lowered his ERA to 5.15 ERA, the lowest it has been since April 9. During the first couple months of the season, Pelfrey was pretty clearly the worst starting pitcher in baseball, at least among those to hold onto their jobs. Not surprising in light of the fact that May 1st marked his one-year anniversary from Tommy John surgery. Looking at historical timelines for recovery from the notorious procedure, Pelfrey's initial struggles were to be expected. But his improvement since the start of June has been stark. Don't take my word for it; check out the numbers side-by-side: [TABLE] [TD=align: center]April and May [/TD] [TD=align: center]June and July [/TD] Games Started [TD=align: center]11 [/TD] [TD=align: center]7 [/TD] Quality Starts [TD=align: center]2 [/TD] [TD=align: center]5 [/TD] ERA [TD=align: center]6.66 [/TD] [TD=align: center]3.35 [/TD] K/BB [TD=align: center]26/19 [/TD] [TD=align: center]29/9 [/TD] Opp AVG/OBP/SLG [TD=align: center].332/.387/.521 [/TD] [TD=align: center].263/.308/.363 [/TD] [/TABLE] The contrast is remarkable. In April and May, Pelfrey was a hittable mess, almost incapable of getting through six innings. Since then, however, he's been extremely solid, completing six or more innings in all but one start (in which he went 5 2/3) and consistently giving his team a good chance to win. It seems safe to say that he's gotten over the hump. Unfortunately, the turnaround may have come too late to help the Twins. My expectation from the beginning was that Pelfrey would start slow and improve in the latter part of the season, but as a player on a one-year contract with a non-competitive team (in other words, a trade candidate), that's a problem because potential trade partners will assess his value based on his performance in the first half. Pelfrey is almost certainly among the commodities Terry Ryan is shopping with the deadline rapidly approaching, but will other teams focus on his steady performance these past couple months or his numbers for the season as a whole, like an ERA that ranks as the sixth-worst in the majors, or a strikeout rate that is fourth-worst? Because he missed time with an injury in late June, Pelfrey hasn't had quite enough time to rebuild his value and now he'll have just one more start before next Wednesday's trade deadline. It would seem that the market for him might not be especially hot, and for his part, Pelf says he would be "crushed" if he were to be dealt. So what's the alternative? Let him continue taking the mound every fifth day in August and September and then use his improved second half as grounds to score a healthy contract in free agency? Or should the Twins take a proactive approach and look to lock the veteran up with a contract extension before season's end? Back in May, that notion would have been laughable, but Pelfrey has undeniably been a high-quality fixture over the past two months and, in light of his circumstances, it's not hard to believe his transformation has been legitimate. He's still only 29 years old, and while he was by no means a dominant pitcher in New York prior to the elbow injury, he was a workhorse who occasionally produced stellar seasons. The Twins are trying to rebuild around youth, but the disheartening developments this year for Scott Diamond and Vance Worley have cast serious doubt on Minnesota's ability to piece together a workable rotation configured with internal parts. We all know the likelihood of Ryan fishing for impact arms in free agency. Of course, Pelfrey might be eager to play out the rest of the year and test the market, since he's never really had a chance to do so (last year was his first foray into free agency and obviously he had much going against him). Then again, if his numerous quotes about enjoying his time in Minnesota and really wanting to stay are to be believed, the righty might be open to agreeable terms. With the way the free agent pitching market has spiraled out of control in recent years, and with the uncertainty surrounding young hurlers that the Twins hoped might figure into their 2013 rotation (Diamond, Worley, Alex Meyer, Trevor May), if Pelfrey can be signed for anything resembling a discount, Ryan would probably be crazy not to do it.

Parker had some stats on the efficacy of Diamond's curve this year and they were brutal. The deterioration of that pitch, which has been a go-to for him in the past, has been one of the biggest contributors to his downfall.

If there's a point to be made, it's that Plouffe went from being a 10-HR guy in his first 6-7 years as a pro to being a 20-25 HR guy, and the transition happened pretty quickly. But sometimes that happens when kids mature physically and mentally. I wouldn't assume anything beyond that.

Is this true? Garza is a good (I would say not spectacular) starter on the verge of free agency. Perkins is an elite closer under reasonably priced control for three more seasons after this one. I realize the value scales tilt heavily in the direction of a starter over a reliever, but when you account for everything Perkins seems like a far more appealing piece.

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If it wasn't obvious before his latest poor performance, it certainly seems obvious now that Scott Diamond is in line for a demotion from the Minnesota Twins rotation. Since pitching well in his first five starts back in April and May, the lefty has gone 2-7 with a 6.65 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 28/24 K/BB ratio in his past 13 turns. It would be one thing if he were showing signs of improvement, but that's not the case. In his last three outings, Diamond has surrendered 16 hits, 10 walks, 11 earned runs and four homers while recording just two strikeouts. He has allowed more than twice as many fly balls as grounders in that time. I wrote back in late May that Diamond was getting away from the things that had made him successful last season, and recently that has been more blatantly true than ever. On Sunday, after watching Diamond get shelled for six runs in 4 2/3 innings, the soft-spoken and non-provocative Tom Kelly opined while filling in as commentator on FSN's broadcast that the time has probably come for a change. It was clear to him -- as it has been to many of us -- that Diamond doesn't presently belong in a major-league rotation. In the wake of his latest disastrous outing, the lefty was mystified that his great work in the bullpen isn't translating over to games. I've seen some variation of that quote from a Twins' starter far too often this season; it conveys a sense of hopelessness, and convinces me more than ever that Diamond needs a break to get things figured out. At this point, the Twins surely must agree, though they appear content to give him at least one more chance. If a move should come in the near future, who are the candidates to replace him? With Pedro Hernandez and Cole De Vries on the shelf, let's take a look at the available arms on hand in Class-AAA Rochester: [ATTACH=CONFIG]4923[/ATTACH]Vance Worley, RHP AAA Stats: 9 GS, 58 IP, 3.88 ERA, 34/17 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP Minnesota's Opening Day starter was demoted back in late May with a 7.21 ERA and an obscene .381 opponents' batting average. His performance in Triple-A has looked far better on the surface, but at a deeper glance it's pretty tough to get excited about his improvements. Even against the lesser competition, Worley has still been unable to strike people out (5.3 K/9) while allowing too many hits (65 in 58 innings). He was placed on the 7-day disabled list last week with shoulder inflammation, but he'll be eligible to return tomorrow, so his availability depends on the severity of the injury. Even if he returns soon, the Twins will likely want to see him prove that he's healthy and effective before a recall is considered. Andrew Albers, LHP AAA Stats: 20 GS, 115.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 105/29 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP Albers has been the standout performer on Rochester's staff, consistently turning in strong outings while posting a respectable K-rate (8.2 K/9) and controlling the running game (three stolen bases attempted in 20 starts). As a 27-year-old who was pitching as a reliever in an independent league three years ago, Albers is hardly a conventional prospect, but based on merit he is beyond deserving of a look in the majors. The stumbling block: he still needs to be added to the 40-man roster. P.J. Walters, RHP AAA Stats: 11 GS, 61.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 53/21 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP Walters was called up to fill in back in late May and quickly unraveled after a couple good starts, leading to his second designation for assignment in two years. It's plain to see that he doesn't have the stuff to pitch in the majors, as illustrated by a 5.79 ERA in 101 innings with the Twins over the past two seasons, so although he chose to stay in the organization after his latest demotion, you have to figure that he's exhausted his opportunities in Minnesota. Liam Hendriks AAA Stats: 11 GS, 65 IP, 5.12 ERA, 39/12 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The forgotten man. Hendriks made the Twins' rotation out of spring training but was bumped after two starts (a shockingly short leash, considering how long guys like Worley and Diamond have been allowed to flap in the wind). While in Rochester, he missed about a month due to injury and hasn't pitched very well, although his control has remained very good and prior to his last clunker he had rattled off four straight quality starts. Hendriks has looked hittable everywhere this year, but he's still only 24 and might have a better shot at making a future impact in the Twins rotation than anyone else listed here (save for Worley, who is presently unavailable). Nick Blackburn AAA Stats: 1 GS, 5 IP, 10.80 ERA, 0/0 K/BB, 2.00 WHIP I can already hear the cringing. Twins fans tend to have a visceral reaction to Blackburn, who is currently earning $5.5 million in the last year of an ill-advised contract extension, but there's a good chance we'll be seeing him in Minnesota before season's end. After undergoing his third arm surgery in as many years in the spring, Blackburn missed the first half but is now on the rehab trail and nearing a potential return. After achieving decent results (3.80 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) in five starts between the rookie-level GCL and Double-A, he was promoted to Rochester this week and made his debut on Tuesday night. An absolutely terrible outing didn't help his cause, but he's got plenty of time to convince the club that he deserves one more look.

On a positive note, Gibson's swinging strike rate leads all Twins starters at 8.5%. Deduno second at 6.3%.