Nick Nelson

Great post, I'm glad I inspired you to write it. And thanks.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]501[/ATTACH]On September 28th of last year, Carl Pavano tossed a five-hit shutout at Target Field, leading the Twins to a 1-0 victory over the Royals. It was the final game of the 2011 season, and its only significance was keeping the Twins from reaching 100 losses – a deflating milestone even if it's virtually no different from 99. On Friday, Pavano will again be on the mound, this time looking to kick off the 2012 Redemption Tour. Returning after the worst season in the past three decades of the franchise, these Twins have much to prove to a disgruntled fan base. In Year Three at Target Field with a payroll that hovers near nine digits, they'll receive plenty of scrutiny and little patience. Rightfully so. For the Twins to reverse course so drastically that they actually contend for a playoff spot – which may require a 30-game swing in win/loss record – might be too much to ask. But fans will be looking for clear signs of improvement across the board, be it on-field play, off-field accountability or organizational direction. One year after derailing completely, the Twins don't need to pull into the station. They do need to demonstrate that they're back on the right track. Terry Ryan, who took over as general manager in November after Bill Smith's abrupt dismissal, executed a sound offseason plan that altered the state of the roster rather dramatically. In the largest exodus of franchise mainstays since Ryan first resigned back in 2007, the team said goodbye to Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan, all of whom inked lucrative contracts elsewhere as free agents. In signing Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll, Ryan Doumit and others over the winter, Ryan's objectives were threefold: replacing the departed players, addressing areas of weakness and creating the type of depth and flexibility absent from last year's roster. If I had one overarching frustration with Smith's strategy last offseason, it was the lack of proactive planning. The 2010 season was a very successful one for the Twins, but it also created a number of ongoing health concerns, and the former GM left the roster woefully unequipped for the avalanche of injuries that was to come. Granted, the Twins stood no chance last summer one way or the other with the endless barrage of bad breaks they endured, and the same would be true this time around. But Ryan has installed legitimate contingency plans, with a number of different moving parts and bench players actually capable of stepping up to make an impact. As long as the injury bug doesn't bite hard again, the lineup should be decent at worst, with the potential to be quite good if, say, Justin Morneau's late spring performance is a sign of things to come or Chris Parmelee is for real. With that said, this offense isn't going to be confused with the Yankees. If the Twins are to stay afloat in the AL Central, they're going to need quality pitching, which was in short supply last year. It's here that my optimism fades somewhat. If all goes well with the starters – Francisco Liriano commands his fastball, Scott Baker's elbow doesn't blow up, Carl Pavano craftily succeeds, Nick Blackburn returns to 2008/09 form and Jason Marquis throws strikes – the rotation could be an asset. But, so rarely does all go well. Whereas the lineup has suitable depth, it's not clear that the Twins will be prepared to adequately replace multiple starters if that need arises. And then there's the bullpen. Ryan took an incredibly passive approach to addressing this unit during the offseason, cobbling together a group of minor-league journeymen, failed starters and reclamation projects. Matt Capps, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton, who have had two good seasons between the three of them since 2008, are hardly guaranteed to be a lockdown trio at the back end, and the rungs get shakier as you make your way down the bullpen ladder. Ron Gardenhire will need to determine a hierarchy on the fly, since few of these pitchers have been able to establish consistent roles on a big-league staff. The approach of throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall to see what sticks didn't work as a bullpen solution last year but maybe the results will be better with a true talent evaluator in charge. I'd like to think that the Twins could sport a respectable rotation with a relief corps that consistently holds leads, but in order for that to happen they'll need a lot to go right and very little to go wrong. Maybe I'm too jaded by last year, but I can't see it. I see a staff that allows a ton of contact and probably ranks among the league leaders in hits allowed because the defense still isn't very good. I see a lineup that, while vastly improved, remains several notches behind the true AL powerhouses like New York, Boston, Texas and Detroit. I also see big bounce-back years for several players, including the restoration of Joe Mauer's pristine reputation. And thanks to a weak division, I see a finish around the .500 mark, which would count as a sizable step in the right direction and might keep things interesting into August and even September.

Back when I was in college, I was a huge Golden Gopher hockey fan (well, still am; can't wait to see the boys battle Boston College on Thursday). Since I was majoring in journalism and had an acute interest in sportswriting, I figured it would be wise to seek an opportunity to cover the team for a media outlet. I ended up landing in a volunteer position with the school radio station. The gig consisted of watching Friday night games from the press box, calling in to give live on-air updates between periods and collecting sound bites from coaches and players in post-game interviews. Watching the game as a member of the press had its perks, no doubt. I was rubbing shoulders with professionals I admired, gaining valuable experience, and there was even free food. But overall, the process was tedious, challenging and stressful. It was work. I've covered numerous sporting events over the years, including the Twins at Target Field, and what I've invariably come to realize is that it sucks the magic out of the game. Cheering in the press box is taboo (which was especially tough at Gopher games), you're forced into awkward interview situations with players and coaches who largely view you as a nuisance, and you're so busy framing story ideas and scrambling against deadlines that you can't really slow down and appreciate or enjoy what's happening. On occasion, when the Gophers were trailing by a goal late, I'd find myself hoping in the press box that they wouldn't score and send it to overtime, so I could finish up and file my work more quickly. That's certainly not how the fan in me would feel. When Phil Mackey went on a mystifying rant about how "sports bloggers" are suffering from a lack of accountability and gloats about how "access paints such a more valuable picture," it miffed me and others. Mackey's remarks set off a whirlwind of debate, with other mainstream media pros chiming in words of agreement and bloggers firing back. I've stayed out of the whole fracas, for the most part. It's a frustrating situation – drama driven by egos, professional pride and poor communication. John wrote a piece here about how corporate journalists are feeling threatened by independent writers. I wouldn't go that far. I don't think the mainstream media need to fear us, but they do need to understand us. We write from the perspective of a fan. Fans don't have access. If we crossed that threshold we'd be writing from a different and in many ways more limiting perspective. Obviously readers are thirsting for the type of relatable, removed-from-the-subject insight that bloggers provide, otherwise these "too large" platforms that Mackey complains of wouldn't have grown so large in the first place. Having media members cover the team from inside the clubhouse, reporting news and providing first-hand viewpoints, is absolutely quintessential. There are several people who do that in this market – Mackey better than most. But while access adds another dimension it also involves a lot of extra work. Reporters get paid for that work, bloggers don't. That, really, is the bottom line here. I can say with great confidence that if it wasn't their salaried job, these reporters wouldn't be in the clubhouse covering the team every day. Most of them probably wouldn't even be writing about the Twins, or about baseball, at all. There's an assortment of really talented writers in this market who have other jobs but take the time to write about the Twins for meager compensation (if any) simply because they're passionate about it. When it comes down to it, which would you rather have: passion or access? Why should you have to choose?

Back when I was in college, I was a huge Golden Gopher hockey fan (well, still am; can't wait to see the boys battle Boston College on Thursday). Since I was majoring in journalism and had an acute interest in sportswriting, I figured it would be wise to seek an opportunity to cover the team for a media outlet. I ended up landing in a volunteer position with the school radio station. The gig consisted of watching Friday night games from the press box, calling in to give live on-air updates between periods and collecting sound bites from coaches and players in post-game interviews. Watching the game as a member of the press had its perks, no doubt. I was rubbing shoulders with professionals I admired, gaining valuable experience, and there was even free food. But overall, the process was tedious, challenging and stressful. It was work. I've covered numerous sporting events over the years, including the Twins at Target Field, and what I've invariably come to realize is that it sucks the magic out of the game. Cheering in the press box is taboo (which was especially tough at Gopher games), you're forced into awkward interview situations with players and coaches who largely view you as a nuisance, and you're so busy framing story ideas and scrambling against deadlines that you can't really slow down and appreciate or enjoy what's happening. On occasion, when the Gophers were trailing by a goal late, I'd find myself hoping in the press box that they wouldn't score and send it to overtime, so I could finish up and file my work more quickly. That's certainly not how the fan in me would feel. When Phil Mackey went on a mystifying rant about how "sports bloggers" are suffering from a lack of accountability and gloats about how "access paints such a more valuable picture," it miffed me and others. Mackey's remarks set off a whirlwind of debate, with other mainstream media pros chiming in words of agreement and bloggers firing back. I've stayed out of the whole fracas, for the most part. It's a frustrating situation – drama driven by egos, professional pride and poor communication. John wrote a piece here about how corporate journalists are feeling threatened by independent writers. I wouldn't go that far. I don't think the mainstream media need to fear us, but they do need to understand us. We write from the perspective of a fan. Fans don't have access. If we crossed that threshold we'd be writing from a different and in many ways more limiting perspective. Obviously readers are thirsting for the type of relatable, removed-from-the-subject insight that bloggers provide, otherwise these "too large" platforms that Mackey complains of wouldn't have grown so large in the first place. Having media members cover the team from inside the clubhouse, reporting news and providing first-hand viewpoints, is absolutely quintessential. There are several people who do that in this market – Mackey better than most. But while access adds another dimension it also involves a lot of extra work. Reporters get paid for that work, bloggers don't. That, really, is the bottom line here. I can say with great confidence that if it wasn't their salaried job, these reporters wouldn't be in the clubhouse covering the team every day. Most of them probably wouldn't even be writing about the Twins, or about baseball, at all. There's an assortment of really talented writers in this market who have other jobs but take the time to write about the Twins for meager compensation (if any) simply because they're passionate about it. When it comes down to it, which would you rather have: passion or access? Why should you have to choose?

* The Twins made their final round of cuts yesterday, sending Brian Dozier, J.R. Towles, Casey Fien and Brian Dinkelman to Rochester. With that, the season-opening 25-man roster has come into clear focus; it will include four starters, eight relievers and – surprisingly – only two catchers. Drew Butera and J.R. Towles appeared to be battling for the third catcher job, but both will open the campaign in Triple-A, meaning that Ron Gardenhire will have Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit as his sole catching options. There's a measure of risk here but I think it's the right choice. Mauer and Doumit have both been injured often throughout their careers. If one goes down and lands on the disabled list, the Twins can easily have Butera or Towles up the next day; but, should one suffer a minor injury, it could leave Gardenhire without a backup for a few few days and eliminate Doumit's valuable flexibility. In the long run, I believe the risk here is healthily outweighed by the benefit of having a useful player on the bench rather than a no-hit third catcher, but this certainly seems like an instance in which Gardy is going outside of his comfort zone. Then again, the organization as a whole has shown willingness to shy away from comfort zones this spring (the early demotion of Tsuyoshi Nishioka standing out as a prime example) and given where the Twins are coming from I think that's appropriate. * Dozier stuck around long enough to get a good look from the coaching staff but there was no way he was going to make the team out of spring training, barring an injury to Alexi Casilla or Jamey Carroll. While Gardenhire is clearly enamored with the 24-year-old shortstop, who hit .277/.333/.511 in spring training after a strong minor-league season in 2011, Dozier still hasn't played above Double-A and isn't viewed from outside as a top-notch prospect. If Dozier is truly ready to play in the bigs, as he claims, he can go prove it in Rochester while the Twins see what they have in Carroll and Casilla. Meanwhile, Terry Ryan is smartly downplaying the hype, saying "there is some work to be done." Amen. That's the kind of insightful, forthright quote that we never got from Bill Smith. And Ryan is wise to temper expectations a bit, what with the manager glowing about Dozier and one local scribe hailing him as "the next big thing for the Twins." * Of course, while Ryan is cautioning not to put too much stock into spring training performance, the Twins have also apparently elected to roll with Chris Parmelee as their Opening Day first baseman on the basis of a strong showing over the past month. Parmelee has hit five homers in exhibition play and also went deep 12 times in the second half last year between Double-A and the majors. If that power is legit and he continues to show good plate discipline, he's got a chance to be a solid contributor, but slow-footed first basemen need to hit and the Twins are taking a leap of faith by letting the 24-year-old bypass Triple-A despite a .416 slugging percentage in 253 games at Double-A. [ATTACH=CONFIG]473[/ATTACH]

We wrap up the Position Analysis series with a look at the relief corps, which could best be described as "unstable." There's little question that the Twins will proceed with seven relievers and a short bench, as is their standard; to fill those seven spots, they brought a veritable army of flawed pitchers to compete in Ft. Myers. With a week left to go, it appears that the Twins have settled on which arms they will carry north. As is always the case in spring training, this is subject to change – particularly with the uncertain situations surrounding Scott Baker and Jason Marquis – but here's a look at the seven relievers I believe the Twins will break camp with. Matt Capps 2011 Stats: 65.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 15/ 24 SV, 34/13 K/BB, 1.20 WHIP [ATTACH=CONFIG]455[/ATTACH] Capps spent most of last season battling a forearm strain. Pitching through the pain, he never complained, took the mound when he was asked and showed accountability when he failed to get the job done. He deserves credit for that. He also got hammered by hitters routinely, blew nine of 24 save chances and was booed off the mound at Target Field multiple times. Capps has been an effective hard-throwing relief pitcher with outstanding control for most of his career and he's still only 28. If he's fully healthy he should be perfectly adequate in the closer role. Last year's arm problems were never addressed surgically, so there exists a real possibility that the injury could come barking once again. Glen Perkins 2011 Stats: 61.2 IP, 2.48 ERA, 65/21 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP The only member of this bullpen who looks like a remotely sure thing is Perkins, coming off a breakthrough season. In his transition to a setup role, Perk was flat-out unhittable over the first four months of 2011 but saw his performance deteriorate in August and September. Most likely, this was due to his high usage; he appeared in 65 games last year when his previous professional high was 39. Assuming the southpaw's arm is in good shape, he's a solid bet to proceed as one of the league's better late-inning relievers. His fastball gained significant velocity with the switch to the bullpen, setting up a slider that is one of the league's deadliest weapons. Brian Duensing 2011 Stats: 161.2 IP, 5.23 ERA, 115/52 K/BB, 1.52 WHIP Last spring, I bemoaned Ron Gardenhire's decision to hand Duensing a spot in the rotation, reasoning that his success as a starter in 2010 was unsustainable and that facing righty-stacked starting lineups would eventually do him in. Sure enough, the lefty had a tough year in the rotation, finishing with a 5.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Through the struggles, Duensing continued to mow down left-handed hitters, holding them to a .217/.242/.280 hitting line with one home run in 187 PA. Considering his major weakness against righties, it makes a world of sense to move him back into a role where he can be situationally matched up against same-sided batters. Played to his strengths, Duensing figures to have plenty of success. Anthony Swarzak 2011 Stats: 102 IP, 4.32 ERA, 55/26 K/BB, 1.34 WHIP Swarzak has been a useful swing man in the past, but there are plenty of reasons to be leery of his outlook. During his time in the big leagues last year, he struck out 12.5 percent of the batters he faced; only five qualifying pitchers in the majors had a worse rate. His 19-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 38 1/3 as a reliever inspired little confidence. Hopefully a full-time switch to the bullpen will help play up his stuff, because it's hard to see his low 90s fastball and mediocre secondary offerings serving much value in anything other than a mop-up role. Jared Burton 2011 Stats: 4.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3/3 K/BB, 1.93 WHIP Burton is probably the most intriguing guy in the bullpen mix. He's pitched a total of eight innings in the majors over the past two seasons, but prior to that he'd been a quality late-inning reliever for the Reds, and he's 30 years old. Injury issues derailed the right-hander in recent years, but he's been healthy in camp and his results on the mound have been excellent. He's the club's best hope for a reliable right-handed setup man to complement Perkins. Matt Maloney 2011 Stats: 18.2 IP, 9.16 ERA, 13/4 K/BB, 2.14 WHIP The Twins claimed Maloney during the offseason because they saw something in him despite an unremarkable 2011 season spent mostly starting in the Reds' system. Their belief in his potential as a reliever appears justified based on a 16-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 1/3 spring innings, but that's overshadowed by a lengthy record of mediocrity. Fortunately, as a third lefty option out of the bullpen and long reliever, he shouldn't need to see too many high-leverage spots. Jeff Gray 2011 Stats: 48.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 23/21K/BB, 1.51 WHIP The buzz for Maloney is understandable, to some degree, but I'm baffled by the Twins' fascination with Gray. Apparently in line to make the roster by virtue of being out of options, he's a 30-year-old right-hander with a 50-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 88 2/3 big-league innings, a 6.6 K/9 rate in the minors and two strikeouts against four walks in 8 1/3 spring innings. Gray is a hard thrower, with a fastball that registers in the mid-90s, but the velocity hasn't translated into remotely dominant numbers, and he's been around for a while.

Last year, the rotation was an utter disaster, with Twins starters ranking 26th in the majors in ERA and WHIP. Short outings taxed an already ill-equipped bullpen and frequently put games out of reach before the offense had much of a say. It's not hard to see why these pitchers struggled so badly. Beyond injuries that hindered performance, the starting corps posted a lower strikeout rate than any other AL club; allowing that much contact in front of a substandard defense led to a league-worst 1,086 hits allowed. The front office didn't focus much on adding reinforcements during the offseason, signing only one new player who figures to be the fifth starter. Instead, they'll rely on improved health, effectiveness and accountability from the incumbents. Carl Pavano 2011 Stats: 222 IP, 9-13, 4.30 ERA, 102/40 K/BB, 1.36 WHIP [ATTACH=CONFIG]443[/ATTACH] While he's technically the team's No. 1 starter since he'll pitch on Opening Day, Pavano hardly fits the profile of a staff ace. At age 36, he is what he is; a veteran strike-thrower with a mature approach and an extremely hittable fastball. The best you can realistically hope for from Pavano is around 200 innings of serviceable performance. That's not without value, but it's also not what you want matching up against the top starters for contending clubs. Francisco Liriano 2011 Stats: 134.1 IP, 9-10, 5.09 ERA, 112/75 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The mercurial left-hander has been alternately dazzling and maddening over the years and is a perennial spring wild card. If he's on his game he completely changes the complexion of the Twins' rotation, providing a legitimate front-end talent to change the pace for a group that generally survives on sleekness rather than stuff. Following an abysmal 2011 campaign, Liriano has shown plenty of positive signs this spring, coming to camp in shape and delivering a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 18 innings while showing improved velocity and command. Of course, until the season gets underway, we won't really know which Frankie we're dealing with. Nick Blackburn 2011 Stats: 148.1 IP, 7-10, 4.49 ERA, 76/54 K/BB, 1.60 WHIP Last year marked the second consecutive season in which Blackburn pitched well enough early on but battled forearm issues, watched his performance deteriorate as the summer progressed and required arm surgery in the fall. His most recent procedure was more significant, and the hope is that it will finally enable him to return to the level of productivity that made him a solid mid-rotation innings-eater back in 2008 and 2009. Like Liriano, Blackburn is enjoying an excellent spring (1.50 ERA in three starts) and is actually missing more bats than we're accustomed to seeing. That all bodes well, but the right-hander needs to prove that he can keep his arm intact all year. Scott Baker 2011 Stats: 134.2 IP, 8-6, 3.14 ERA, 123/32 K/BB, 1.17 WHIP With the rest of the starters scuffling along, Baker enjoyed a career year in 2011, standing out from the contact-heavy staff by averaging 8.2 whiffs per nine. That mark would've ranked him among the league leaders if he had enough innings to qualify, which he of course did not as arm problems limited the righty to 24 frames after the All-Star break. It was the second straight season in which he's been slowed by elbow soreness, and the issue has already reemerged this spring, feeding the belief that he won't be ready for the start of the year. If Baker can't go, it seems likely that either Anthony Swarzak or Liam Hendriks would occupy his spot in the rotation. Those are decent enough fill-ins, capable of Kevin Slowey type production, but either would represent a sizable drop-off from Baker in his element. Jason Marquis 2011 Stats: 132 IP, 8-6, 4.43 ERA, 76/43 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The lone newcomer in this year's starting pitching equation, Marquis has a track record that screams "mediocre at best." Historically, he hasn't racked up many strikeouts and hasn't limited hits or walks particularly well. He's also spent his entire career in the more pitcher-friendly National League. The nice thing about the 33-year-old hurler is that if he can hang in there and keep his sinker over the plate, he gives the Twins a fourth rotation member (along with Pavano, Liriano and Blackburn) who tends to induce ground balls at a steady clip. Hopefully, this will reduce the number of drives landing in the gaps and over the fence at Target Field. Unfortunately, with Marquis looking beyond shaky in his early spring performances and currently away from the team indefinitely to tend to a serious family matter, he can't be counted on for much at this point.

Likely Starter: Ryan Doumit 2011 Stats: .303/.353/.477, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 17 R, 0/1 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]430[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer No team has everything set in stone with two weeks left in spring training. For the Twins, with uncertainties surrounding several players, plenty is subject to change between now and Opening Day. For example, last week I profiled the three outfield spots, and over the weekend it was revealed that two of those positions will be filled by different players than previously thought. Designated hitter is a particularly difficult position to analyze at this point. Ryan Doumit is expected to be the starter on April 6, and ideally he'll play there frequently so as to limit the exposure of his weak glove at various positions. Yet, his versatility was a big reason Doumit was signed, and there are a number of other players who figure to draw frequent starts at DH, making the position a likely revolving door. There was talk from Twins officials during the offseason that the club might slot Justin Morneau at DH often this year in order to protect his health. The fact that he's playing very little first base in Ft. Myers with the season rapidly approaching would seem to raise the likelihood of that possibility. For his part, Morneau downplays the significance and says he still plans on playing the field regularly. I suspect that if he's healthy, Morneau will spend a fair amount of time at time at designated hitter but will also play some first and will get plenty of days off. Doumit and Joe Mauer will likely be the other main contributors at DH. If Morneau and Mauer are swinging the way they're capable of and Doumit picks up where he left off last year, that gives the Twins three very solid hitters to rotate. If one of those three becomes unavailable, or if Mauer and Morneau are lucky enough to spend most of their time in the field, it's possible that guys like Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes could get some starts at DH. These guys all bring enough upside with the bat to justify the assignment. While the position may lack stability this season, that doesn't mean it won't be a strength. The Twins shouldn't have much trouble finding designated hitters who can hit. Predicted Hitting Line for Doumit: .275/.345/.415, 12 HR, 50 RBI

Likely Starter: Josh Willingham 2011 Stats: .246/.332/.477, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 69 R, 4/5 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]416[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Trevor Plouffe, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni When he hasn't been needed elsewhere, Michael Cuddyer has spent most of the past six years roaming right field for the Twins. No player has spent more time in front of the big blue baggy and limestone overhang. Cuddyer was a fan favorite, a media darling and a community staple. He was also a productive player, putting up an .806 OPS while averaging 18 homers and 79 RBI during that six-year span. The notorious clubhouse magician pulled off a final disappearing act this winter, ending his 15-year tenure in the Twins organization to sign a lucrative contract with the Rockies. The man replacing Cuddy has his work cut out for him. Josh Willingham ought to be up to the task. In fact, there's a good chance that he'll outperform Cuddyer. During the aforementioned six-year span, Willingham accumulated a superior .838 OPS while averaging 22 homers and 72 RBI. Last year he hit 29 bombs – a mark Cuddyer has topped only once – while playing his home games in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park. Willingham has been an extremely consistent middle-of-the-lineup slugger with more balanced splits than Cuddyer, who mashed lefties but often struggled against righties. The newly acquired outfielder also brings pure pull power, making him a better fit in Target Field than his predecessor. In his quest to provide the Twins with above-average production in right field, Willingham will face two key barriers: injuries and age. He's done a good job of avoiding major ailments, playing in more than 100 games every year since becoming a regular, but he's also missed an average of 34 per season. Unless Justin Morneau can bounce back in a big way, the Twins don't have another player who can pack the kind of pop that Willingham does, so they'll need him in the lineup. Willingham is also 33 years old, putting him past what is typically considered to be a player's physical prime. There are plenty of guys who remain productive well into their mid-30s and he looked plenty sharp last year, but this is an age where many begin to see their bat speed and athleticism decline. I suspect that age, injuries and an even tougher ballpark will take a toll on Willingham to some degree, but his track record is outstanding and he's a great fit in this lineup. It will be fun to see how many he can yank into the Home Run Porch at Target Field. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Willingham: .250/.340/.450, 20 HR, 75 RBI

Likely Starter: Denard Span 2011 Stats: .264/.328/.359, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 37 R, 6/7 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]407[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni A good case can be made that during his first two seasons in the majors, Denard Span was not only one of the most underrated players on the Twins, but in all of baseball. Between 2008 and 2009, Span hit .305/.390/.422 with 41 steals and 63 extra-base hits in 238 games. A young, cost-controlled leadoff man with a .390 OBP, a bit of pop and the athleticism to competently play center field? That's not a solid contributor, that's a stud. Span's drop-off in 2010 was staggering. With Carlos Gomez gone, he assumed full-time duties in center and saw his OPS drop by 130 points, effectively dropping his designation from elite to ordinary. It appeared that Span had reemerged as a true asset at the top of the order last year, as he sat with a .300/.367/.392 hitting line on June 6, but that day he suffered a concussion in a home plate collision and he was never the same afterward. He went on to hit .132 over two stints in August and September, finishing with an OPS nearly identical to that mediocre 2010 campaign. Twins fans know all too well how long the after-effects of a concussion can linger, with Justin Morneau still not right 20 months after his incident in Toronto. Span carries his own concerns, especially in light of the migraine headaches he'd dealt with prior to being concussed, and he admitted recently that he still experiences the occasional bad day. Fortunately, the center fielder's performance in spring training thus far has done nothing but inspire confidence that he can shake off the injury concerns and return at least to the form he showed in the early months of last season. Through 11 exhibition games, Span is hitting .355. He's shown a great plate approach with four walks and only two strikeouts, he's been aggressive on the bases with five steal attempts, and he even came away from a wall collision in the outfield altogether unscathed. We often caution not to place too much stock in spring numbers, but Span's play in Ft. Myers has been about as encouraging as one could hope for. That doesn't mean he's out of the woods, of course. If the head problems become an issue again for Span, or if he suffers a different injury, the Twins will need to be prepared. In a short-term scenario, Ron Gardenhire could probably just shift a few players around and plug in someone like Rene Tosoni, Ryan Doumit or Darin Mastroianni. If the need is more long-term, it's likely that the Twins would call upon Joe Benson, a top prospect in the organization who – like Span – is having a very strong spring. Benson has posted an OPS above .800 in three straight minor-league seasons and got a taste of the majors last September. At age 24, he appears close to big-league ready. He leads the Twins with 10 RBI in Grapefruit League play after blasting a two-run homer against the Tigers yesterday. His high strikeout totals will be an ongoing concern, but his combination of patience, power and flat-out athleticism are quite intriguing. If Span or another outfielder goes down for a lengthy period of time and Benson continues to impress, it's likely that he'd get the call, either in center or in a corner spot with Revere shifting to the middle. He's one of the organization's only high-quality prospects in the upper levels of the minors, making the outfield an area of relative depth for the club. Of course, the Twins and Benson will both be better off if he's able to log some experience in Triple-A – where he's yet to take a single at-bat – and come up on his own terms rather than out of necessity. The hope is that Span can keep the bad days at bay and help facilitate that process. I'm optimistic that he will. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Span: .280/.350/.370, 4 HR, 50 RBI