Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1833[/ATTACH]Last year, Minnesota's outfield was a mess. Among players who put in significant time at an OF spot, only Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel posted an OPS over .700, and neither appeared in more than 77 games as on outfielder (Cuddyer due to Justin Morneau's injury, Kubel due to his own). This, along with Denard Span's costly injury, left a lot of at-bats for the likes of Delmon Young, Jason Repko, Rene Tosoni and a rookie Ben Revere, all of whom struggled mightily. This year has produced a rather dramatic turnaround, as the Twins' outfield has been one of the most stable and successful in memory. Josh Willingham has started 92 of a possible 110 games in left field. Though his defense has been suspect, his bat has more than made up for it as he's having a more productive season than Cuddyer or Kubel ever had here. One can easily argue that the slugger will be unable to maintain this performance throughout his contract, but the fact that he's showing absolutely zero signs of age at 33 cannot be viewed as anything other than an enormous positive. Additionally, the two guys next to Willingham have helped overshadow his deficiencies with the glove. One of those guys is Denard Span, who has started 97 of 110 games in center. He's not the elite top-of-the-order bat he once was, but the 28-year-old has been a durable, complete player. While he hasn't been spectacular in any area (except possibly defense), he's been very solid all-around and a quality leadoff man. Most importantly, his concussion issues from last year have rarely even been referenced this summer. Then there's Ben Revere, whose improvement is rather astounding. At age 24, he's already fulfilling his promise. As a guy who doesn't walk much or collect many extra-base hits, he needs to hit well over .300 and play stellar defense to be a truly valuable asset. Right now he's doing just that. Considering his skill set and the .326 average posted during his rapid assent through the minors, there's no reason to think he can't do it consistently for many years to come. I haven't even mentioned Darin Mastroianni, who is establishing himself as an ideal fourth outfielder with his rangy defense and elite base running skills. The great part about these players is that they're all under team control through at least 2015. The better part is that an infusion of excellent young outfield talent – namely Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks – is rapidly approaching the majors. Assuming those two continue to develop, the Twins will have a pleasant problem on their hands with an overload of quality outfielders. There have been a number of quirky things about this 2012 season. The fact that the Twins have managed to vastly improve their outlook in the outfield despite losing their two top producers to free agency surely must be viewed as one of the most enjoyable.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1806[/ATTACH]Sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to the minors at the outset of this season was a fairly obvious decision, given his immense struggles as a rookie last year. Leaving him there for the majority of the summer has also been an easy choice, as his play in Triple-A has offered no indication that he belongs in the big leagues. That remains true now, after a "hot" month of July in which Nishioka batted .298 but posted a meager .702 OPS, but nevertheless the Twins elected to bring him back to the majors when Sunday's Danny Valencia trade opened up a roster spot. And you know what? I believe the club made the right choice in recalling the embattled infielder, and I'll take it a step further: I think Nishioka should be starting regularly for Minnesota from here on out. Why? For the same reason that Nick Blackburn should keep taking the hill every fifth day, regardless of his performance. Right now, the Twins need to be completely focused on 2013 and beyond, and like it or not, the organization will be paying those two players – who happen to slot in at positions of great need – many millions of dollars next season. There's an inclination to label both Nishioka and Blackburn sunk costs, and ultimately that's what they may amount to next year: $8 million in wasted payroll with virtually no return. But that's an ugly scenario and the Twins have plenty of incentive to avoid it. In a late-season situation such as this, where wins and losses don't matter, there's an opportunity to take a long look at both players and try figuring out a way to get some value from them going forward. Believe me, I have close to zero faith in that happening, especially in the case of Nishioka. He just doesn't seem to have the tools to succeed as a major-league player. But a lengthy audition in a low-pressure environment with daily access to Joe Vavra and other coaches strikes me as a worthwhile last-ditch effort. Presuming Brian Dozier continues to start on the other side, Nishi won't be stealing playing time from anyone of import. When a 28-year-old hits .298/.336/.365 over a month in Triple-A, it's generally not something worth getting excited about. In the case of Nishioka, it is sadly the most positive thing he's done since coming over from Japan. That's the splinter of hope Twins fans must cling to with the failed import, so it's not hard to see why most have summarily dismissed the idea of his playing any role in the club's future, despite his contract. How nice it would be if he showed us something over the next two months to make us believe otherwise.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1743[/ATTACH]An outcome that has long seemed inevitable became a reality today when it was announced that pitching prospect Alex Wimmers was slated to undergo Tommy John surgery. It's a major setback in a career that hasn't really been able to get off the starting block. The story leading up to this news is a familiar and frustrating one. Back in April, Wimmers landed on the disabled list after one start with what was thought to be a minor elbow strain. An MRI exam in early May revealed a partial tear in his UCL. The Twins opted for rehab. He spent the next couple months wearing a stabilizer, resumed throwing in early July and took the mound later that month for a start in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Wimmers didn't make it through the first inning. He allowed three runs on four hits and a walk while recording two outs. After the outing, he reported discomfort in the elbow, and after another MRI the Twins opted for surgery. Between Wimmers, Scott Baker and Kyle Gibson, that's three instances in the past two seasons where the medical staff became aware of a pitcher's elbow issue and either misdiagnosed it or prescribed a futile rest/rehab solution. Take it back even further and you can include names like Pat Neshek and Francisco Liriano. Understandably, surgery is seen as a last resort, but in many of these cases the ultimately misguided decision to delay action can have a profoundly negative impact on these players' careers. For example, there's a chance Wimmers won't return until 2014, at which point he'll be a 25 with one career start above Single-A. Had he undergone surgery back in May when the tear was first discovered, he may have been able to come back midway through next season. I don't have nearly enough insight on the situation to condemn the medical staff and it's possible this happens just as frequently in other organizations, but on the surface it just looks bad – especially for a pitching-starved franchise with so little margin for error when it comes to handling its prospective young arms. Either way, complaining about the process avoids what is at the heart of this issue: terrible luck. The Twins had the foresight to addressing their upcoming dearth of starting pitching by drafting fast-track college starters in the first round two years in a row, and within a couple years of joining the organization each one succumbed to one of the most significant injuries a hurler can have. You can perhaps blame the Twins for pushing back timelines, but you can't blame them for the injuries themselves occurring. These are outside circumstances taking an immense toll on Terry Ryan's ability to rebuild a depleted rotation. For that, he should probably be cut some slack.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1715[/ATTACH]Tuesday's 3:00 PM trade deadline came and went with Minnesota, for a second consecutive year, standing pat. There's a lot of frustration being directed toward the Twins, who – unlike other cellar-dwellers around the league – weren't able to unload assets for impact prospects. Their only trade sent Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for a meager return. In short, the franchise did very little to aid its rebuilding effort. But, in reflecting on these past days, there's one very important point to keep in mind: no trade is better than a bad trade. Dealing away Liriano was essentially a no-brainer, given that he'll be a free agent at year's end. Shipping out Carl Pavano and Matt Capps would have also been obvious moves, even if there wasn't much coming back, but unfortunately both are sitting on the disabled list indefinitely (and still could be traded in August). The rest of the team's trade candidates, from Denard Span to Josh Willingham to Justin Morneau to Jared Burton to Glen Perkins, are all under control beyond this year. These aren't guys you trade just to trade. Given that every single one of those names has appeared in reported trade rumors over the past few days and weeks, it seems clear that Terry Ryan was busily working to assess their markets and find a sensible deal. In the end, he didn't get the kind of offers that he felt merited giving up pieces with long-term value. It's tough to blame him for that. There will be other opportunities to shop these players in the future (in fact, I suspect we'll see Span and Morneau's names floated quite a bit during the offseason). Earlier this week I wrote about a hard truth that became evident in the Liriano trade and also through some of the quotes surfacing from rival general managers about the the Twins' sky-high asking prices for their trade chips. For various reasons, despite the increased number of buyers, teams around the league just weren't willing to pay up for what the Twins were selling. In a situation like that, standing pat was really the only logical course of action. And it leaves Ryan with plenty of options during the offseason.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1702[/ATTACH]When the news came down this weekend that the Twins had traded Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for a pair of middling 23-year-old prospects, the reaction around here was understandably negative. The same questions echoed in the minds of fans across the state. Why did the Twins deal Liriano in the wake of his worst start of the season? Why did they back away from their stated goal of adding young, high-upside talent? And why – WHY – did they send a potential difference-maker to the one team that almost no Twins fan wants to see hoisting a trophy in October? The answers to these questions aren't especially difficult to figure. Terry Ryan settled on dealing Liriano to the Sox because they had the best offer on the table and he didn't expect better ones to come by Tuesday. Of course he would have preferred to pry away younger prospects with higher ceilings, but even with the increased number of buyers brought on by the new postseason format, clearly teams weren't knocking at the door to hand over those kinds of players. And while that's disappointing, it shouldn't be all that surprising. It's not because of Liriano's clunker last Tuesday (which happened to come against the team that traded for him). General managers aren't stupid enough to view one outing in a vacuum when it comes to evaluating a pitcher. Bad starts happen. The problem is that, with Frankie, they've happened too often over the past five years. Since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2008, Liriano owns a 4.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Utterly mediocre numbers that have been very much in line with the ones he's posted this year. For all his flurries of brilliance, the league is also vividly aware of the fragility – physical, mental or both – that has made him so insanely inconsistent and unreliable. Rental players, in general, don't garner huge returns because no one wants to mortgage the future for two months of production from an impending free agent – particularly when it's a pitcher who is going to make, at most, a dozen starts. Occasionally a savvy GM can take advantage of one club's desperation, but in this case it became clear that nobody fully trusted Liriano. (Admit it, that includes you.) Based on the left-hander's recent run of success, fans were overrating their own asset and setting expectations too high, putting Ryan in an unfortunate position. There was literally no way he was going to be able to acquit himself in this situation; holding on to Liriano made no real sense and the impact offers weren't there. And sadly, I suspect he'll have a hard time making up for it in these final hours before Tuesday afternoon's deadline, because while trade chips like Denard Span and Josh Willingham are more appealing with multi-year contracts, they still don't have the kind of value that many fans want to believe. Jim Crikket had it right when he wrote two weeks ago that we should be prepared for disappointment during the days leading up to the deadline. In a season like this one, I guess we shouldn't have expected anything else.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1649[/ATTACH]The Big Picture San Francisco leads Los Angeles by a game and a half for the NL West lead. As is typically the case, the G-Men have excelled on the mound, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA, while struggling on offense, ranking 11th in runs per game. The Dodgers have proven pesky and the Diamondbacks – currently six games back – are always a threat to make a late-season run (last year they went 45-25 after the break), so one would have to think the Giants are very interested in making a move. Why They'll Trade With the Twins Although they're very strong at the top of the rotation with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants may look to boost the bottom half, where an untrustworthy Barry Zito and a suddenly hittable Tim Lincecum lurk. Would Brian Sabean consider bringing back the pitcher he traded away as a prospect almost a decade ago? Francisco Liriano would certainly provide an edge, but it's hard to see the team replacing Zito, who has a 3.75 ERA, or Lincecum, who is Lincecum. The Twins player that really might interest the Giants is Josh Willingham. He's said to be available, though only at an exorbitant price. Ken Rosenthal, who offered up the previous tidbit about Willingham, has also noted that the Giants have a clear need for a right-handed hitting outfielder. Would they part with a top prospect or two knowing that they'd have Willingham for two more years at a good price? I don't believe the Twins are very interested in dealing the Hammer, but I'd bet money that if they end up moving him it's because Sabean knocked them off their heels with an offer. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Two words: A.J. Pierzynski. The last time Sabean shipped prospects to Terry Ryan for an established player, it bit him. Hard. Conclusion The Giants don't seem like a viable destination for the Twins' top trade chip in Liriano, but they look like a prime landing spot for Willingham. That's true of Denard Span also, though to a lesser extent since they have a couple similar players in Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco. Read on to find a few players the Twins might ask about if the Giants come calling for an outfielder. ~~~ POTENTIAL TRADE CANDIDATES Nate Schierholtz - OF The 28-year-old outfielder recently suggested that he'd welcome a trade, as he feels underutilized. With a career .723 OPS, he's nothing special, but he's competent enough and could serve as a placeholder if the Twins deal Span or Willingham. Joe Panik - SS A middle infielder with a stick. Something the Twins could use. After putting up an .868 OPS as a 20-year-old in Low-A last year, he's come back to earth a bit (.265/.347/.374) but his 43/47 K/BB ratio is exciting. Kyle Crick - RHP Ryan has put a clear emphasis on young pitchers with upside, and Crick fits that bill extremely well. He's a big 6'4" right-hander who throws four quality pitches, racking up lots of strikeouts and lots of walks. He's also got a 2.75 ERA in Single-A as a 19-year-old. Clayton Blackburn - RHP Because who doesn't want another Blackburn in the organization? Oh, and this one is actually really good: 2.82 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 99/13 K/BB in 89 innings at Single-A as a 19-year-old. Another high-ceiling teenager.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1636[/ATTACH]On Monday night, Francisco Liriano is scheduled to make his 130th start in a Twins uniform. It might also be his last. With 25 strikeouts over his last two starts and a 2.84 ERA since the start of May, Liriano is the hottest pitcher in baseball. He also might be the most appealing rental available on the trade market, with Zack Greinke's market cooling and Cole Hamels perhaps closing in on an extension with the Phillies. Just over a week remains until the deadline, increasing the urgency for pitching-hungry contenders who could begin making hard pushes for the Minnesota left-hander, especially if he turns in another strong outing against the White Sox. This is certainly not the kind of leverage Terry Ryan expected to have when Liriano sat with an 11.02 ERA after one month's play. As frustrating as his April was, Twins fans should be very thankful that he was able to pull things together and rattle off three excellent months, boosting his trade value with each passing start. At this point, with the bidding war that ought to take place, I'll be disappointed if the Twins don't come away with at least one impact prospect in a deal. Pay close attention to Liriano when he takes the hill against Gavin Floyd. It might be your last chance, because you can bet a dozen other teams will be doing the same.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1582[/ATTACH]The Big Picture When the Angels skidded to an 18-25 start, many in Anaheim were hitting the panic button. After the most aggressive offseason of any club in baseball, the offense was flatlining – thanks in large part to the remarkable struggles of LA's marquee acquisition: Albert Pujols. Akin to the 2006 Twins, who reversed course after a 25-33 start to win 96 games, the Angels have gone on a midseason tear, with rookie and MVP frontrunner Mike Trout leading the way. They are 5.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West, but lead the race for the top wild-card spot. At this point, they've got to be feeling pretty good about their chances of making the postseason. Why They Will Trade With the Twins Of course, when you splurge for $316 million over the winter, simply making the postseason isn't enough. The Angels have championship aspirations, and with the Rangers and Yankees both looking especially strong, they'll need any edge they can get. Los Angeles will likely be looking to upgrade the lineup, where there are a few clear weak spots. While Trout and Torii Hunter are holding down two outfield positions, the the final corner has been hurting, with Peter Bourjos hitting .237 and Vernon Wells looking unappealing as a full-time option when he returns from the disabled list. Adding a guy like, say, Denard Span or Josh Willingham would certainly round out that group nicely while pushing the lineup closer to the level of a Texas or New York. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Pitching is a major strength for the Halos, so unless they're looking for a fourth weapon in the rotation to complement Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Dan Haren, they seem unlikely to be major players for Francisco Liriano. Aside from left field, the biggest weakness in the Angel lineup is catcher, where Bobby Wilson has been getting regular tread with a .483 OPS. Ryan Doumit certainly looks like a potential fit, but the Twins seem unlikely to move him after handing him a two-year extension. Summary The Angels are front line contenders and are certainly in position to buy at the deadline, but they're red-hot right now and it's not clear their need is great enough to drop big prospects for a guy like Span or Liriano. Then again, with expectations as higher as they are, who knows where their desperation may lead. Read on to Twins Daily to find a few prospects in LA's system that could intrigue the Twins should Jerry Dipoto come calling (sadly, I somehow doubt Trout is an option). --- Potential Trade Candidates Garrett Richards – RHP He was considered the organization's top pitching prospect entering the season, but he's scuffled in Triple-A and the majors this year. Still, his numbers in the minors up until this point cannot be ignored and he works in the mid-90s with his fastball. He's still only 24. Nick Maronde – LHP Another promising young hurler who has looked good this year, flashing strikeout stuff and good control in Single-A at age 22, though he missed a couple months due to a strained lat. John Hellweg – RHP Hellweg is a nice prospect in his own right. His stock his has dropped this year with a good-not-great performance in Double-A as a 23-year-old (3.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 84/56 K/BB in 111 IP), but that could be just what makes him him gettable. Ariel Pena – RHP Pitching on the same team as Hellweg, and posting slightly better numbers at the same age. Neither Hellweg, Maronde nor Pena are top-tier prospects, but they're all fairly similar in quality and their redundancy may make them more expendable in the eyes of Dipoto.