Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1702[/ATTACH]When the news came down this weekend that the Twins had traded Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for a pair of middling 23-year-old prospects, the reaction around here was understandably negative. The same questions echoed in the minds of fans across the state. Why did the Twins deal Liriano in the wake of his worst start of the season? Why did they back away from their stated goal of adding young, high-upside talent? And why – WHY – did they send a potential difference-maker to the one team that almost no Twins fan wants to see hoisting a trophy in October? The answers to these questions aren't especially difficult to figure. Terry Ryan settled on dealing Liriano to the Sox because they had the best offer on the table and he didn't expect better ones to come by Tuesday. Of course he would have preferred to pry away younger prospects with higher ceilings, but even with the increased number of buyers brought on by the new postseason format, clearly teams weren't knocking at the door to hand over those kinds of players. And while that's disappointing, it shouldn't be all that surprising. It's not because of Liriano's clunker last Tuesday (which happened to come against the team that traded for him). General managers aren't stupid enough to view one outing in a vacuum when it comes to evaluating a pitcher. Bad starts happen. The problem is that, with Frankie, they've happened too often over the past five years. Since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2008, Liriano owns a 4.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Utterly mediocre numbers that have been very much in line with the ones he's posted this year. For all his flurries of brilliance, the league is also vividly aware of the fragility – physical, mental or both – that has made him so insanely inconsistent and unreliable. Rental players, in general, don't garner huge returns because no one wants to mortgage the future for two months of production from an impending free agent – particularly when it's a pitcher who is going to make, at most, a dozen starts. Occasionally a savvy GM can take advantage of one club's desperation, but in this case it became clear that nobody fully trusted Liriano. (Admit it, that includes you.) Based on the left-hander's recent run of success, fans were overrating their own asset and setting expectations too high, putting Ryan in an unfortunate position. There was literally no way he was going to be able to acquit himself in this situation; holding on to Liriano made no real sense and the impact offers weren't there. And sadly, I suspect he'll have a hard time making up for it in these final hours before Tuesday afternoon's deadline, because while trade chips like Denard Span and Josh Willingham are more appealing with multi-year contracts, they still don't have the kind of value that many fans want to believe. Jim Crikket had it right when he wrote two weeks ago that we should be prepared for disappointment during the days leading up to the deadline. In a season like this one, I guess we shouldn't have expected anything else.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1649[/ATTACH]The Big Picture San Francisco leads Los Angeles by a game and a half for the NL West lead. As is typically the case, the G-Men have excelled on the mound, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA, while struggling on offense, ranking 11th in runs per game. The Dodgers have proven pesky and the Diamondbacks – currently six games back – are always a threat to make a late-season run (last year they went 45-25 after the break), so one would have to think the Giants are very interested in making a move. Why They'll Trade With the Twins Although they're very strong at the top of the rotation with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants may look to boost the bottom half, where an untrustworthy Barry Zito and a suddenly hittable Tim Lincecum lurk. Would Brian Sabean consider bringing back the pitcher he traded away as a prospect almost a decade ago? Francisco Liriano would certainly provide an edge, but it's hard to see the team replacing Zito, who has a 3.75 ERA, or Lincecum, who is Lincecum. The Twins player that really might interest the Giants is Josh Willingham. He's said to be available, though only at an exorbitant price. Ken Rosenthal, who offered up the previous tidbit about Willingham, has also noted that the Giants have a clear need for a right-handed hitting outfielder. Would they part with a top prospect or two knowing that they'd have Willingham for two more years at a good price? I don't believe the Twins are very interested in dealing the Hammer, but I'd bet money that if they end up moving him it's because Sabean knocked them off their heels with an offer. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Two words: A.J. Pierzynski. The last time Sabean shipped prospects to Terry Ryan for an established player, it bit him. Hard. Conclusion The Giants don't seem like a viable destination for the Twins' top trade chip in Liriano, but they look like a prime landing spot for Willingham. That's true of Denard Span also, though to a lesser extent since they have a couple similar players in Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco. Read on to find a few players the Twins might ask about if the Giants come calling for an outfielder. ~~~ POTENTIAL TRADE CANDIDATES Nate Schierholtz - OF The 28-year-old outfielder recently suggested that he'd welcome a trade, as he feels underutilized. With a career .723 OPS, he's nothing special, but he's competent enough and could serve as a placeholder if the Twins deal Span or Willingham. Joe Panik - SS A middle infielder with a stick. Something the Twins could use. After putting up an .868 OPS as a 20-year-old in Low-A last year, he's come back to earth a bit (.265/.347/.374) but his 43/47 K/BB ratio is exciting. Kyle Crick - RHP Ryan has put a clear emphasis on young pitchers with upside, and Crick fits that bill extremely well. He's a big 6'4" right-hander who throws four quality pitches, racking up lots of strikeouts and lots of walks. He's also got a 2.75 ERA in Single-A as a 19-year-old. Clayton Blackburn - RHP Because who doesn't want another Blackburn in the organization? Oh, and this one is actually really good: 2.82 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 99/13 K/BB in 89 innings at Single-A as a 19-year-old. Another high-ceiling teenager.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1636[/ATTACH]On Monday night, Francisco Liriano is scheduled to make his 130th start in a Twins uniform. It might also be his last. With 25 strikeouts over his last two starts and a 2.84 ERA since the start of May, Liriano is the hottest pitcher in baseball. He also might be the most appealing rental available on the trade market, with Zack Greinke's market cooling and Cole Hamels perhaps closing in on an extension with the Phillies. Just over a week remains until the deadline, increasing the urgency for pitching-hungry contenders who could begin making hard pushes for the Minnesota left-hander, especially if he turns in another strong outing against the White Sox. This is certainly not the kind of leverage Terry Ryan expected to have when Liriano sat with an 11.02 ERA after one month's play. As frustrating as his April was, Twins fans should be very thankful that he was able to pull things together and rattle off three excellent months, boosting his trade value with each passing start. At this point, with the bidding war that ought to take place, I'll be disappointed if the Twins don't come away with at least one impact prospect in a deal. Pay close attention to Liriano when he takes the hill against Gavin Floyd. It might be your last chance, because you can bet a dozen other teams will be doing the same.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1582[/ATTACH]The Big Picture When the Angels skidded to an 18-25 start, many in Anaheim were hitting the panic button. After the most aggressive offseason of any club in baseball, the offense was flatlining – thanks in large part to the remarkable struggles of LA's marquee acquisition: Albert Pujols. Akin to the 2006 Twins, who reversed course after a 25-33 start to win 96 games, the Angels have gone on a midseason tear, with rookie and MVP frontrunner Mike Trout leading the way. They are 5.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West, but lead the race for the top wild-card spot. At this point, they've got to be feeling pretty good about their chances of making the postseason. Why They Will Trade With the Twins Of course, when you splurge for $316 million over the winter, simply making the postseason isn't enough. The Angels have championship aspirations, and with the Rangers and Yankees both looking especially strong, they'll need any edge they can get. Los Angeles will likely be looking to upgrade the lineup, where there are a few clear weak spots. While Trout and Torii Hunter are holding down two outfield positions, the the final corner has been hurting, with Peter Bourjos hitting .237 and Vernon Wells looking unappealing as a full-time option when he returns from the disabled list. Adding a guy like, say, Denard Span or Josh Willingham would certainly round out that group nicely while pushing the lineup closer to the level of a Texas or New York. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Pitching is a major strength for the Halos, so unless they're looking for a fourth weapon in the rotation to complement Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Dan Haren, they seem unlikely to be major players for Francisco Liriano. Aside from left field, the biggest weakness in the Angel lineup is catcher, where Bobby Wilson has been getting regular tread with a .483 OPS. Ryan Doumit certainly looks like a potential fit, but the Twins seem unlikely to move him after handing him a two-year extension. Summary The Angels are front line contenders and are certainly in position to buy at the deadline, but they're red-hot right now and it's not clear their need is great enough to drop big prospects for a guy like Span or Liriano. Then again, with expectations as higher as they are, who knows where their desperation may lead. Read on to Twins Daily to find a few prospects in LA's system that could intrigue the Twins should Jerry Dipoto come calling (sadly, I somehow doubt Trout is an option). --- Potential Trade Candidates Garrett Richards – RHP He was considered the organization's top pitching prospect entering the season, but he's scuffled in Triple-A and the majors this year. Still, his numbers in the minors up until this point cannot be ignored and he works in the mid-90s with his fastball. He's still only 24. Nick Maronde – LHP Another promising young hurler who has looked good this year, flashing strikeout stuff and good control in Single-A at age 22, though he missed a couple months due to a strained lat. John Hellweg – RHP Hellweg is a nice prospect in his own right. His stock his has dropped this year with a good-not-great performance in Double-A as a 23-year-old (3.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 84/56 K/BB in 111 IP), but that could be just what makes him him gettable. Ariel Pena – RHP Pitching on the same team as Hellweg, and posting slightly better numbers at the same age. Neither Hellweg, Maronde nor Pena are top-tier prospects, but they're all fairly similar in quality and their redundancy may make them more expendable in the eyes of Dipoto.

Last night I posted an article musing about what it might take for the Twins to get back into the AL Central race in the second half. It was mostly the stuff of pipe dreams, naturally, since the club would need to play .650-plus baseball and leapfrog four teams, requiring an historically unprecedented turnaround. Nevertheless, it was a fun escape from the painful realities of a lost season. (At least for those who were willing to play along.) Even accepting those realities, there will be plenty of intriguing storylines for fans to follow in the final months of this 2012 season. Here are a few: 1) Joe Mauer chases another batting title.[ATTACH=CONFIG]1522[/ATTACH] With a .326 average that ranks him fourth in the AL, Mauer is in line to make a run at his fourth career batting title. Signs are pointing in a positive direction now, as he's hit .377 since the start of June, but can he stay healthy and productive through the end of September? If so, it will have a hugely positive impact on his future outlook. 2) Ben Revere too? Don't look now, but Revere is hitting .316 and he's only a few weeks of regular ABs away from qualifying for the batting title. Having both him and Mauer in the mix would be a lot of fun for Twins fans. 3) Justin Morneau searches for his previous form. The first baseman remains under contract for next season and would be tough to trade. If he can show some signs of life against lefties (which he has seemingly started to do as of late) it would create hope that he might have another big campaign left in him next year. 4) Can Scott Diamond keep shining? There was a temptation to pass off Diamond's early success as a fluke, but with each outstanding start he turns in, that stance grows more difficult to hold. Clearly he's not a good bet to maintain a sub-3 ERA in the long-term, but if the southpaw keeps pitching well it's possible he could be viewed as the club's No. 2 starter entering next season. (Whether that's a good or bad thing is debatable.) 5) Trades, trades, trades. Most likely the Twins will be selling off assets come late July. In fact, given the number of deals we've seen this team complete after the non-waiver deadline in recent years, we may well see some trading in August. Who will be moved? And what kind of hauls will Terry Ryan be able to bring back? 6) Prospects on the rise. Several of the organization's top prospects will find themselves in the spotlight here in the final months. Will Byron Buxton show impressive signs in his pro debut? How many homers can Miguel Sano – who's currently at 18 – pile up? Can Aaron Hicks continue his turnaround in New Britain (his OPS is up over .800)? Will Joe Benson banish his nightmarish first half from memory and get back in position to compete for an MLB outfield job next year? Can recovering Kyle Gibson pitch his way back to the big-leagues for a September call-up? 7) Trevor Plouffe's long ball total. If the slugging third baseman stays healthy and maintains his first-half home run rate, he'll finish with around 40 bombs. If he's able to reach that figure, Plouffe will become the only Twin to do so other than Harmon Killebrew. That's weird to type. (Of course, Josh Willingham also has a shot at 40 homers but that's just not nearly as weird to think about.) 8) Spoiling the Sox. Even if the Twins can't fight their way back into contention, they'll still have plenty of chances to help derail the rival White Sox, who currently sit in first place. Minnesota and Chicago have 12 match-ups remaining – plenty of chances to foil the plans of these bitter rivals. 9) Dozier's development. As I've written in the past, the Twins badly need Dozier to establish himself as a serviceable major-league starter, because their short-term depth in the middle infield is brutal. He's actually been better lately, with a .321 average in July, but his plate discipline and defense remain suspect and absolutely must improve. 10) Francisco Liriano's impact on the race. It seems highly unlikely he'll be doing it here, but Liriano will probably be a factor in the AL postseason picture. Contenders are sure to take a significant interest, considering his 3.63 ERA and dazzling strikeout rate since the start of May, and the Twins have little reason not to deal the impending free agent. Acquiring him will be a major risk/reward proposition for any team with championship aspirations, but I'll enjoy watching the situation unfold from the outside. What storylines will you be tracking in the second half?

Here at the All-Star break, the Twins find themselves 11 games out of first place, with a record 13 games below .500. The most likely scenario is that they sell off their assets within the next couple weeks and coast to a forgettable finish near the bottom of the division. But just what would it take for the Twins to surge back to the top of the division here in the second half? Anyone would have to admit that it's still possible, if extremely improbable. We've seen this team make up some significant deficits after the break in years past under Ron Gardenhire. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1518[/ATTACH] Below, I've listed out a few things that, in my mind, would have to happen for the Twins to pull off their greatest turnaround yet. Feel free to add your own thoughts in the comments section. (And, please, no "It's not going to happen" responses. The unlikelihood is obvious.) 1) Come out of the break on fire. The trade deadline is only two weeks away, and with a double-digit deficit in the standings, the front office will have no choice but to sell. Without the likes of Francisco Liriano and others, they team will be dead in the water. If, however, the Twins can rattle off a bunch of wins in short order – including dominating key series against the White Sox and Indians – Terry Ryan may be compelled to keep the gang together and see what they can do. 2) Dominate the division. I hinted at this above, but the Twins would really need to lay the hammer down on divisional opponents. They're 11 games behind and trailing four different clubs, so with 77 games remaining there is little margin for error. They probably can't afford to lose a single series against Chicago, Detroit or Cleveland. 3) The White Sox must fall. Quietly, the Sox have turned into one of baseball's finest teams. Their 47-38 record ranks as sixth best in the majors, and they've been on a tear lately winning 11 of their last 15. If Chicago wins 90-some games, the Twins won't be catching them. Similarly, the Twins need the Tigers and Indians to remain lukewarm in the final months. 4) Starting pitching must lead the way. Shockingly, the Twins got three good starts against an offensive powerhouse in Texas heading into the break. Yet, their starters still own the worst ERA in the American League. Minnesota will need to win at a .650+ clip from here on out to have a chance; they simply won't be doing that without vastly improved starting pitching. 5) The bullpen can't slip up. It seems we might already be seeing some signs of the bullpen's heavy workload over the first half catching up. Given the aforementioned slim margin for error, the Twins can't really afford to let late leads slip away like they did in Texas over the weekend.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1496[/ATTACH]If you're not familiar with the Twins' Official Scorecard, you should be. It's sold at the program stands near the entrances to Target Field, and it's only one buck. How many things can you buy at the ballgame for a dollar? Aside from providing the necessary tools for a scorekeeper to do his/her thing, the scorecard also includes content that changes for each series. Even if I didn't happen to be the guy supplying that content all year, I'd highly recommend picking up a copy each time you make it out to the park. It may be the best value at Target Field. Below you'll find an excerpt from the Twins' side of the next coming scorecard, which will be available during the Athletics series when action resumes after the All-Star break. ~~~ Post-Break Bursts When the Twins have made the playoffs under Ron Gardenhire, it has – without fail – been the result of an excellent second-half. Below you’ll find a comparative list of Minnesota’s annual pre-break and post-break records during Gardy’s tenure. The thing that sticks out is that every playoff team (2002, ‘03, ‘04, ‘06, ‘09, ‘10) was characterized by major second-half improvement. The collective post-break winning percentage of those teams is .623; for non-playoff teams, it’s .433. In order to climb back into contention, this current club will need to play well over .600 over the final months. But then, they’ve made a habit of that. Twins Pre-Break and Post-Break W/L Under Gardenhire [TABLE] Year Pre-Break W% Post-Break W% 2011 41-48 .461 22-51 .301 2010 46-42 .523 48-26 .649 2009 45-44 .506 42-32 .568 2008 53-42 .558 35-33 .515 2007 45-43 .511 34-40 .459 2006 47-39 .547 49-27 .645 2005 48-38 .558 35-41 .461 2004 47-40 .540 45-30 .600 2003 44-49 .473 46-23 .667 2002 50-39 .562 44-28 .611 [/TABLE]

[attachment=4852:906.attach][I]If you're not familiar with the Twins' Official $1 Scorecard, you should be. It's sold at the program stands near the entrances to Target Field, and it's only one buck. How many things can you buy at the ballgame for a dollar? Aside from providing the necessary tools for a scorekeeper to do his/her thing, the scorecard also includes content that changes for each series. Even if I didn't happen to be the guy supplying that content this year, I'd highly recommend picking up a copy each time you make it out to the park. It may be the best value at Target Field. Below you'll find an excerpt from the Twins' side of the next coming scorecard, which will be available during the Athletics series when action resumes after the All-Star break.[/I] [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] [CENTER]~~~ [B]Post-Break Bursts[/B] [/CENTER] When the Twins have made the playoffs under Ron Gardenhire, it has – without fail – been the result of an excellent second-half. Below you’ll find a comparative list of Minnesota’s annual pre-break and post-break records during Gardy’s tenure. The thing that sticks out is that every playoff team (2002, ‘03, ‘04, ‘06, ‘09, ‘10) was characterized by major second-half improvement. The collective post-break winning percentage of those teams is .623; for non-playoff teams, it’s .433. In order to climb back into contention, this current club will need to play well over .600 over the final months. But then, they’ve made a habit of that. [CENTER][B]Twins Pre-Break and Post-Break W/L Under Gardenhire[/B] [/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Year[/TD] [TD]Pre-Break[/TD] [TD]W%[/TD] [TD]Post-Break[/TD] [TD]W%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011[/TD] [TD]41-48[/TD] [TD].461[/TD] [TD]22-51[/TD] [TD].301[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2010[/TD] [TD]46-42[/TD] [TD].523[/TD] [TD]48-26[/TD] [TD].649[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2009[/TD] [TD]45-44[/TD] [TD].506[/TD] [TD]42-32[/TD] [TD].568[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2008[/TD] [TD]53-42[/TD] [TD].558[/TD] [TD]35-33[/TD] [TD].515[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2007[/TD] [TD]45-43[/TD] [TD].511[/TD] [TD]34-40[/TD] [TD].459[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2006[/TD] [TD]47-39[/TD] [TD].547[/TD] [TD]49-27[/TD] [TD].645[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2005[/TD] [TD]48-38[/TD] [TD].558[/TD] [TD]35-41[/TD] [TD].461[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2004[/TD] [TD]47-40[/TD] [TD].540[/TD] [TD]45-30[/TD] [TD].600[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2003[/TD] [TD]44-49[/TD] [TD].473[/TD] [TD]46-23[/TD] [TD].667[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2002[/TD] [TD]50-39[/TD] [TD].562[/TD] [TD]44-28[/TD] [TD].611[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] View full article

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1467[/ATTACH]The Big Picture The Bronx Bombers have made the playoffs in seven of the past eight years but have reached the World Series only once, when they beat the Phillies in 2009. For most teams, one championship in eight years would be perfectly adequate, but not for the Yankees. This is a franchise that appeared in the Fall Classic six times in nine years prior to their latest "drought." Now, with a 48-32 record that qualifies as second-best in baseball (behind the Rangers) and gives them a comfortable six-game lead in the AL East. You can bet they'll do whatever it takes to position themselves for another strong postseason run. Why They Will Trade With the Twins Championship aspirations? Check. Room to add payroll? Check. Pressure from fan base to make a move? Check. The Yankees have all the characteristics of an aggressive deadline buyer, which means they're exactly the type of club that the Twins should be focusing on should they choose to sell. Moreover, they've suffered some tough losses in the rotation; Michael Pineda was lost for the season in spring training, and more recently Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia went down with injuries that will keep them out for a while (Pettitte likely won't be back until September). In addition, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances – two top prospects that were being counted on to step in at some point this season – have been set back by injuries and ineffectiveness. These events leave the Yanks on shaky ground in the rotation, so it's easy to envision them taking an interest in Francisco Liriano, who they've been linked to in past rumors. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins There's a very narrow fit here. The Twins don't really have any impact starters to trade outside of Liriano, and New York is in no great need of help in the lineup or bullpen. So the question is, how much are they willing to give up for two months of the mercurial Liriano? Even if they're desperate for starting pitching, it's tough to see them moving a high-end prospect for a rental, especially considering that superior impending free agents such as Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels could be made available. Conclusion There's definitely a potential match here, and if Brian Cashman is unwilling to meet the asking prices of Milwaukee or Philadelphia, one could easily imagine him calling up Terry Ryan to inquire about Liriano. At that point, it becomes a matter of settling on a prospect (or prospects) that the Twins like and that the Yankees are willing to move in return for a wild card. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Dellin Betances - RHP Top pitching prospect Manny Banuelos is probably unavailable, but it's possible that Betances – another of the vaunted "Killer B's" – could be plucked. The sky-scraping right-hander was ranked by Baseball America as New York's third-best prospect during the offseason, but he's had a brutal campaign. He was recently demoted from Triple-A to Double-A after posting a 6.39 ERA and 71/69 K/BB ratio in 74 2/3 innings for Scranton. If the Twins feel they could straighten the 24-year-old out, this might be the right time to make a bid for him. But that's a risk, and it's unclear Cashman would be willing to sell low. Gary Sanchez - C Catching prospects are intriguing, because the Twins will be gradually transitioning Joe Mauer away from the position in the coming years and they certainly don't have any amazing backstops on the farm. Sanchez would seemingly be a good fit – he's 19 and hitting very well in Single-A, which means that if all goes well he'd be reaching the majors around the time Mauer is looking at a full-time switch to first base or DH. David Phelps - RHP Despite posting excellent numbers throughout the minors, the former 14th-round pick has never been viewed as a spectacular prospect. He's pitched as a starter and a reliever for the Yankees this year, posting very respectable numbers (37 IP, 3.16 ERA, 34/14 K/BB). A 25-year-old rookie who's missing bats in the majors and has several years of inexpensive team control ahead of him? Sounds like exactly the guy the Twins are looking for. In fact, he should be the first player Ryan asks about.