Nick Nelson

The last two weeks have been rather slow for the Twins, as well as all of baseball and the corporate world in general. Holidays falling on successive Wednesdays will do that. With that season now officially over, things should start kicking back into gear. And fortunately, even though we've seen little meaningful roster action recently, there are still plenty of intrepid reporters working diligently to keep our rumor appetites satiated. Let's get caught up on all Twins-related whispers: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * Via an MLB contact, Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 reports that the Twins are still "kicking the tires" on Matt Garza. He notes that the club is willing to spend significantly on the free agent starter but are concerned about the number of guaranteed years in a potential contract. My assumption was that any interest the Twins had in Garza evaporated when they signed Ricky Nolasco, so I'd be really surprised if they're doing anything more than passively monitoring his situation at this point. He'll likely cost more than Nolasco to sign (perhaps more than Nolasco and Phil Hughes combined) and -- as I've discussed in these columns previously -- there's logic in leaving one rotation spot open for competition. The one thing that keeps this rumor faintly realistic is the fact that Garza is not tied to any draft pick compensation. If he would be willing to go as low as three years and the Twins are looking for a complete rotation overhaul, maybe something could work out. But it's really unlikely, as he remains one of the top names on the market. Steam Rating: 1/5 * Wolfson also mentioned that, as of the end of December, the Twins still had not offered a contract to Johan Santana, adding that they "remain interested." Wolfson suggested that Santana does have offers on the table (all of the minor-league variety, presumably) and there was some buzz last week that the lefty was getting close to making a decision. Still nothing yet, though. I would guess that the Twins won't make a play unless he remains unsigned into February, when they'll have a better idea of his condition for the start of the season. Steam Rating: 3/5 * John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote on Friday that the Reds have no money to spend and are thus very unlikely to re-sign Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo has been cited frequently as a target for the Twins, although the likelihood of such a match decreased substantially after the club brought back Mike Pelfrey. There hasn't been much buzz connecting the parties recently, and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com wrote a couple weeks ago that Arroyo "denies that he was ever close to an agreement" with Minnesota, contradicting a Ken Rosenthal report from earlier in the month that talks between the two sides were gaining momentum. I don't doubt that the Twins are still keeping an eye on Arroyo, but the same caveat applies as with Garza; it just doesn't make a ton of sense to spend big on filling that final rotation spot when you've got a handful of reasonable candidates to compete and prospects in waiting. Arroyo's price would have to drop to a pretty low level for this scenario to be plausible. Considering how slowly his market has developed, I suppose it's possible. Steam Rating: 2/5 * Last week Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors listed the Twins among teams that could use Stephen Drew the most. Indeed, few teams across baseball have as great a need for an adequate short-term or long-term solution at shortstop, but Minnesota has been openly wary about surrendering a draft pick to sign any free agent and Drew would require one. As Dierkes notes in his column, "they seem set with [Pedro] Florimon." And for better or worse, that's probably true. Steam Rating: 1/5

These are trying times if you're the coach of a local professional sports team. Vikings head coach Leslie Frasier got the axe this week following a season that saw his team lose 10 games. Mike Yeo is on the hot seat with the Wild under-performing. And Rick Adelman might just give up with the number of tribulations that seem to endlessly plague the Timberwolves. Ron Gardenhire has endured more losing than any local coach over the past three years, [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]and as his most recent disappointing season came to a close there was some thought he might also be on his way out. Instead, the Twins signed their longtime manager to a two-year extension at the end of September. In re-upping with Gardenhire, the Twins acknowledged that the ugly results over the past few seasons can't be strongly tied to the manager's performance. With a transitional roster that has been riddled with injuries and hasn't been supplemented by much impact talent, Gardy has faced difficult circumstances that would have made it nearly impossible for any skipper to find success. Known as one of the most loyal organizations in baseball (and perhaps in sports as a whole), the Twins elected not to make Gardenhire the scapegoat for a three-year stretch of misery that has been driven by plenty of contributors. It's clear the front office still likes Gardenhire and puts more stock in his first decade at the helm -- which featured six division championships -- than his most recent run. But the club's patience can't, and won't, last forever. The 2014 season figures to be a hugely important one for the game's second-longest tenured manager. With major money being pumped into free agency during the offseason, and with a handful of key prospects expected to join the fold, another year with no progress in the win column would likely spell the end for Gardenhire. I've always been a believer that the role of a manager in a baseball team's success is generally exaggerated, but I think Gardenhire is good at what he does for the most part. He is liked by his players, he's an entertaining quote and he's shown some willingness to adapt his generally old-school tactical approach (Joe Mauer logging more than 400 plate appearances as the No. 2 hitter this year is a fine example). If Gardy can continue to do those things and the Twins finally begin to pull themselves out of this lingering pit of despair, he figures to stick around for a while yet. But by no means does his new contract take him off the hot seat. #13 – Twins in the WBC #12 – Drew Butera Traded to Dodgers #11 – Twins Sign Kubel, Trade Doumit #10 - Brian Dozier Breaks Through #9 - Kyle Gibson Promoted #8 - Aaron Hicks' Lost Year #7 – Twins Draft Kohl Stewart #6 – Justin Morneau Traded to Pirates #5 – Twins Dismal Starting Pitching #4 – Buxton and Sano Dominate Minors #3 – Twins Spend on Free Agents #2 – Joe Mauer Moves to First Base

August 31st marked the end of an era for the Minnesota Twins. Justin Morneau had been a cornerstone for perennial contenders, and although those days were long past by the time of his departure, the fans never forgot. In the big picture, the decision to trade Morneau was essentially a no-brainer. Still, one got the sense that it didn't come easily. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins were going nowhere, and dealing the impending free agent allowed them to recoup some value while also providing Morneau with the luxury of joining a playoff team. Although the veteran first baseman's performance was nondescript during five weeks with the Pirates, he showed an improved plate approach on a much bigger stage, which might have contributed to his landing a two-year deal with the Rockies earlier this month. In giving up just one month of Morneau's services, the Twins got back Alex Presley, who became the regular in center field and seems likely to maintain that role at the start of 2014. They also got reliever Duke Welker, who they later swapped for lefty starter Kris Johnson. Presley is better suited as a fourth outfielder and Johnson probably won't pitch in the majors unless he can replicate his 2013 success at Triple-A (he went 10-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 135 innings for Indianapolis), but they're still not bad additions to the system. Any glimmer of hope that Morneau might return was extinguished when Joe Mauer was officially tabbed as a first baseman going forward, so Twins fans will have to watch from afar as the longtime staple seeks to rekindle his career in a new setting. He could hardly find a better home than Coors Field to do so.

The more I think about the swap that the Twins have made at the designated hitter position, the more I like it. By signing Jason Kubel to a non-guaranteed, incentive-laden contract and trading away Ryan Doumit's guaranteed $3.5 million salary, they have made a sound financial decision that could pay dividends on the field. But in doing so, they're also committing to a plan at the DH position that is shaky at best. Maybe that's not such a bad thing. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] While Kubel has never been able to replicate the offensive dominance he displayed in 2009, his career year, he has generally been a decent hitter since, with numbers that closely mirror Doumit's: Doumit (32), last four seasons: .264/.326/.429, 53 HR Kubel (31), last four seasons: .250/.322/.435, 68 HR Ostensibly Doumit gains an advantage because he is a switch-hitter and can serve as a backup catcher, but Kubel is younger and has shown the greater power potential. Besides, Doumit's ability to competently serve as a part-time catcher was in doubt even before this year's concussion issues further clouded matters. Both players are coming off down seasons at the plate, but Kubel's was unequivocally much worse. Therein lies the greatest concern. He batted .216/.293/.317 in stints with the Diamondbacks and Indians, and looked especially bad late in the year. His ability to make contact has rapidly deteriorated as he's aged: Year | K % ----------------------------- 2009 | 18% 2010 | 20% 2011 | 21% 2012 | 26% 2013 | 32% Kubel has proven to be a very good hitter at times, but he's an iffy gamble at this point, which is why the Twins have hedged their bets in his contract. He'll earn a guaranteed $2 million by joining the club out of spring training, and can add an additional $1 million through very reachable incentives. That means he stands to make $3 million -- virtually identical to Doumit's 2014 salary. This substitution wasn't about saving money. It was about mitigating risk and adding some intriguing upside to the DH mix. Clearly the Twins have given Kubel a strong indication he'll make the team -- he reportedly may have passed up a major-league deal to sign here -- but his contract is non-guaranteed for a reason. With his awful recent play and his ascending K-rates, it's difficult to have faith in a major turnaround. So what happens then? Well, even if Kubel is on the roster, he'll be sharing time at DH with a group of questionable fielders that could include Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello and others. If Kubel doesn't shake out, those guys would be in line for more starts at DH, potentially improving the defense by keeping them off the field. Of course, in that scenario, the Twins need to have backups who can not only provide a defensive upgrade but also hit enough to warrant semi-regular playing time. Unless they're sold on the likes of Darin Mastroianni, Alex Presley, Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana as players who can hold their own in somewhat prominent roles, the Twins should be scouring for backups and utility types who can offer some offensive value. But to even consider surrendering the money (and draft pick) that would be required to land a high-caliber bat like Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz would be silly. There's a sensible plan in place to start the season and if it doesn't work out players who can hit but have no defensive position are easy enough to find on the trade market or even the waiver wire.

The Twins have filled their backup catcher vacancy. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, they have reached agreement on a one-year deal with veteran catcher Kurt Suzuki. The signing addresses the last obvious need on the roster, although Terry Ryan will likely continue to monitor potential upgrades over the coming weeks. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Terms of the deal have yet to be disclosed, but Suzuki is not expected to earn a large salary. He has struggled at the plate over the past four seasons, hitting just .237/.294/.357 while spending time with the Athletics and Nationals. Suzuki might have a chance to compete for a starting job in spring training, but given his lack of offensive production in recent years, the Twins are probably hoping that Josmil Pinto will be able to establish himself, allowing the new acquisition to serve in a part-time role. Although he is generally considered a strong defender, Suzuki really struggled to control the run game this past season, catching just eight base-stealers on 65 attempts (12 percent) in 93 games. That's a concern, since defensive aptitude will be the most important thing for him to bring to the table. Suzuki, 30, is a Hawaii native who played college ball at Cal State Fullerton. He was a second-round draft choice of the A's in 2004. Expect more analysis of the signing here at Twins Daily over the weekend.

Last offseason, the Twins faced a decision with a player who had been part of their organization for nearly a decade. Scott Baker, coming off Tommy John surgery, was a free agent, and the Twins, direly in need of pitching help, were among the teams discussing a contract with him. Ultimately, they backed off and let him sign with the Cubs. According to reports, the biggest stumbling block was Baker's unwillingness to include an option for a second year. But of course, the Twins went on to sign Mike Pelfrey to a straight one-year deal at a similar price, so there must have been more to it than that. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] I felt at the time that one of the biggest factors in the club's preference for Pelfrey was a history of far greater arm durability, and one year later, the decision looks smart. In comparing Baker and Pelfrey last year, there were many situational similarities. Both were former high draft picks with MLB success in their histories, both were around 30 years old and both would be a little under a year removed from Tommy John at the outset of the 2013 season. Both ended up signing one-year contracts for around $5 million, with no added option years. So essentially, in committing a fairly significant chunk of guaranteed money to one of these pitchers, the choice came down to which one was going to bounce back and deliver production right away in 2013 to make good on that investment. The Twins ultimately passed up Baker and signed Pelfrey in late December. It seemed clear that Baker had the greater upside. He was the guy who could miss bats, and the one who had been truly exceptional in his best years. He also had familiarity within the organization. But through that familiarity, the Twins knew that his pitching arm hadn't always held up especially well. Even before learning in spring of 2012 that he had a torn ligament, Baker had a long history of pesky elbow issues. He had reached 200 innings only once in his career, in 2009, and hadn't eclipsed 172 innings in a season outside of that. A glance at Baker's injury history on Baseball Prospectus reveals a lengthy record of arm ailments dating back to 2009: Pelfrey, on the other hand, had a relatively clean bill of health prior to his May 2012 surgery. From 2008 through 2011, he made 31-plus starts every year and averaged 196 innings. In fact, prior to going down with the ligament tear, he never even made one trip to the disabled list. As a well built specimen at 6'7" and 250 lbs, Pelf had been the definition of durability. He only enhanced that reputation by returning last year, just 11 months from Tommy John surgery, and logging 152 innings over 29 starts. His overall results weren't very good, but the accomplishment alone is quite noteworthy. Based on my research, there has never been another starting pitcher to return from reconstructive elbow surgery in such a short span and complete a full season. Pelfrey even ratcheted his fastball back up to 93 MPH on average and posted the highest strikeout rate of his career. Meanwhile, Baker missed almost the entire season as he dealt with rehab complications. He didn't make his first appearance until September 8th and wound up pitching 15 innings over three starts. That's what the Cubs got for their $5.5 million. Say what you will about Pelfrey's performance -- at least he gave the Twins innings. That his arm was able to rebound so well is not wholly surprising considering his history, and bodes well for his new two-year deal. The Twins are chiefly interested in getting quality innings at the back end of the rotation from Pelfrey, and based on his past he seems like a strong bet to at least hold up well enough to deliver the innings. Whether those innings will be of the quality variety is unclear to say the least, but if you look closely you can find some positive signs to that end.