Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2923[/ATTACH]Through free agent signings and trades, the Twins have added three names to their 2013 starting pitching mix, along with a couple prospects who can help down the line. As we assess the progress of this rebuilding unit, can we say with assurance that the three MLB pitchers they've added – Vance Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey – are significantly better than the three that just exited as free agents – Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Scott Baker? I don't know that we can, and that is troubling. Here's a look at how the best-case starting five would shake out if everything stayed the same: 1. Scott Diamond 2. Vance Worley 3. Kevin Correia 4. Mike Pelfrey 5. Kyle Gibson It's got the makings of a below-average rotation, with a chance to be respectable but a greater chance to blow up, especially with flimsy defensive support. Keep in mind that the last two on the list won't necessarily be ready to pitch in the majors right off the bat. Behind these five names, the depth chart is an assortment of major question marks, including Liam Hendriks, Nick Blackburn, Sam Deduno, Cole De Vries and Brian Duensing. It was quite clear last year that none of those players had what it took to start in the majors, so it'd be somewhat surprising if any (save for perhaps Hendriks) suddenly turned a corner and became an adequate piece. Long story short, the Twins' immediate starting pitching outlook remains dreary. At this point, the addition of even one established quality starter would go a long way toward improving the unit's overall chances at staying afloat next season, but it's unclear Terry Ryan intends to do that. As things stand, it's impossible for me to believe he could look at his current group and feel confident that they're likely to perform a whole lot better than last year's.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2911[/ATTACH]Terry Ryan hasn't exactly sugarcoated his approach to repairing the Twins' woeful pitching staff this offseason. It's about quantity, not quality. "We've got numbers," the general manager said last week. "It's just a matter of who is going to emerge. Some guys will be injured. Some will fall by the wayside. Some won't be ready. But we have to have numbers." Ryan is apparently poised to increase that number again, with reports arising over the weekend that he's agreed to terms with right-hander Mike Pelfrey on a one-year deal. The 28-year-old has pitched in the Mets organization since being drafted in the first round back in 2005. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year, and became a free agent after New York non-tendered him in November. Looking past the injury, the Pelfrey signing doesn't seem much different from last week's uninspiring Kevin Correia acquisition on the surface. Both are back-of-rotation hurlers with low strikeout rates and no experience pitching in the American League. But there are a few key differentiators that should make you feel considerably better about this move: 1. Contract. Whereas the Twins mysteriously made a two-year commitment to Correia, Pelfrey gets a one-year pact with only $4 million guaranteed (he can earn another $1.5 million in incentives). It's a low base – especially in the context of this offseason – and the signing has no impact on the club's payroll beyond this year. The "no such thing as a bad one-year contract" mantra rings true here. 2. Durability. This might seem like an odd selling point given that Pelfrey is coming off major elbow surgery, but he totaled 184 innings or more in each of the four seasons prior. That's a mark that Correia has topped only once in his career. Or, as a more relevant example, it's a mark that Scott Baker – who is older and received more guaranteed money from the Cubs – has only reached once. Up until the torn elbow ligament, Pelfrey was a workhorse. It will be interesting to see if any kind of innings limit is instituted next year, but seeing as how he's trying to rebuild his value I have to think he'd be opposed. 3. Upside. Correia is 32 and has basically been mediocre or worse throughout his career. Conversely, Pelfrey is 28, was the ninth overall pick in the draft and was ranked by Baseball America as the game's 20th-best prospect after dominating the minors in his first pro season. Even coming off major surgery, I like Pelfrey better than Correia. But he's another contact-heavy guy joining a staff that is already full of them. That could be a recipe for trouble considering this team's defensive question marks. With Denard Span and Ben Revere out of the picture, it's entirely possible that the Twins won't have a single starter on the field who is a true asset at his position with the glove. Pelfrey's addition isn't likely to dramatically boost the overall quality of the rotation, but he's another potentially useful major-league arm to throw in the mix and while his style is doesn't stand out from what the Twins already have, his pedigree and background certainly do. As we know all too well, the path back from Tommy John surgery tends to include numerous setbacks and tribulations. Who knows, maybe they'll get lucky and Pelfrey will quickly regain his old form, establishing value at the trade deadline or perhaps even prompting the Twins to consider an extension. If he fizzles, their long-term plans will not be affected. Tough to criticize the move from that standpoint. Yet, while the Pelfrey signing is fine in isolation, combined with last week's Correia signing it's a sign that Ryan and the Twins are resigned to scraping the bargain bin for pitching help, despite the fact that it's December, not Feburary, and there is supposedly plenty of payroll flexibility. That's harder to figure.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2899[/ATTACH]As the slow early weeks of this offseason dragged on, we kept hearing the same refrain: Just wait until Zack Greinke signs. Then all of the dominoes will begin to fall. True story. We're seeing it now. On Monday, the Dodgers announced they'd signed the game's premier free agent to a monstrous six-year, $147 million deal. In the days since, other top names have begun to quickly come off the board. On Thursday, the Angels landed Josh Hamilton with a five-year, $125 million offer. Shortly after that came to light, Bob Nightengale reported that Anibal Sanchez – the consensus No. 2 free agent pitcher – had signed a five-year, $75 million contract with the Cubs, though he later backtracked. Sanchez is now playing Chicago against Detroit, and his price will likely be driven up. It's pretty compelling stuff, really. Overshadowed by those huge headlines was Ryan Dempster's signing with the Red Sox. The right-hander agreed to terms on a two-year, $26.5 million deal that looks downright reasonable in comparison to some of these other sums being thrown around. According to Doogie Wolfson's source, the Twins "kicked the tires" on Dempster but "never made a formal offer." Terry Ryan's done a whole lot of tire-kicking this winter, but appears content to walk away with nothing but scuffed shoes and empty hands, at least when it comes to the middle tier of starters. We've heard the Twins connected to names like Joe Saunders, John Lannan, Francisco Liriano and Joe Blanton, but there's been no steam with higher-grade options such as Shaun Marcum and Edwin Jackson. Why not take a shot at Dempster? The Twins could have outbid the Red Sox and still been comfortably short of last year's budget. Dempster has his warts, for sure. He'll turn 36 in May, and he got knocked around a bit after being traded to the AL this year. With the Rangers, he still averaged a strikeout per inning and pitched well after a couple early clunkers so I wouldn't worry too much about it. He has posted an ERA of 3.85 or below in four of the past five years and has averaged 200 innings over that span. He's a very solid starter, and his addition would send a message to fans that the Twins are truly committed to improving, now and in the future. Some might say that Boston is a more attractive destination for Dempster, which brings us to the theory that free agents flat-out don't want to sign in Minnesota. But the Sox have been more of a mess than the Twins over the last two seasons and Fenway is a pretty treacherous pitching environment, which matters for a guy who might try to score one more contract after this one. Apparently Ryan never made a serious bid, so it all becomes a moot point. Even if the Twins were low on Dempster, why not get legitimately involved with the likes of a Marcum or Jackson? The money is ostensibly there, and even if contention in the next year or two is unlikely, they need to get better. They need to keep playing meaningful games past the middle of July to counteract the attendance drain that has been hitting them in the late months. They need a proven veteran to lead a young and inexperienced staff, and the current senior Kevin Correia is not a credible candidate. Up to this point the Twins have essentially added no payroll for 2013. The Correia signing brings them back near even after they unloaded Denard Span's salary. With the big free agent names off the board, this is where Ryan should become active. These are the pitchers he should be in on. He might have to pay more than he'd like in order to play that game. In fact, he definitely will. But failing to even participate in the bidding would be a disservice to fans, as well as plain-old bad team-building. The current starting stable is completely devoid of reliable assets – Ryan admitted as much when surprisingly acknowledging that "there's no guarantee [Correia] will strengthen the group" – and that's just no way to proceed, even if the ultimate goal is to make a push further down the line. There is not a team in the league that should be more desperate for quality pitching than the Twins. Perhaps they should start acting like it.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2873[/ATTACH]For the first time in his tenure as manager, Ron Gardenhire will enter the 2013 season without a contract extension in place that carries him beyond the coming year. Lacking job security, Gardenhire spoke openly last week about the possibility of moving on. "If I don't make it through this year, I'll be OK," Gardenhire told reporters during the Winter Meetings. "I've had a great opportunity here, I love the Minnesota Twins, I love where I'm at and hopefully I stay there for the rest of my career, however long that may be. We all know what happens in this game -- you're held accountable and I'm held accountable. I'm not worried about a contract extension. That's not up to me." For his part, Terry Ryan has tried to steer the microscope away from Gardy, stating that responsibility for the product on the field falls more onto his shoulders than the manager's. Still, one can't ignore the realities of a disenchanted fan base that will grow all the more irate if forced to sit through another non-competitive season in this young ballpark, and it's obvious that Gardenhire is ahead of Ryan on the chopping block. If the Twins are truly prepared to evaluate the long-time skipper based on the upcoming season and make a change if things don't improve significantly – a respectable stance given that the club has sunken to the bottom of the American League under his watch – it's starting to look like they might be setting him up for failure. I want to believe Ryan's claims that the team isn't ready to punt in 2013, but players like Kevin Correia won't help much and with the Royals emphatically making their push by acquiring a legit ace in James Shields, the division gets that much tougher. Ryan has balked at the market for legitimate free agents and his recent trades of Denard Span and Ben Revere for young pitching, along with statements that he's willing to listen on Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau, suggest that the true aim is to field a contending club in 2014 at the earliest. That's dandy for the long-term health of the franchise, but it's not so dandy for the manager whose job is on the line in the short-term. If Gardenhire enters the 2013 campaign with a roster that closely resembles this year's -- plus a few mediocre starting pitchers and minus a couple quality outfielders -- it'd be tough to expect much improvement in the W/L column. And another 90-loss season would almost certainly spell the end for Gardy, right? Even if the Twins are internally committed to a rebuild, managers just don't survive three consecutive last-place finishes often. In his live chat here at Twins Daily last week, ESPN 1500's well-connected Doogie Wolfson said he's been getting the sense that the team is prepared to go through another down year and then make a managerial switch. He brought up Paul Molitor's name, which would help explain Gardenhire's reluctance to add Molitor to the staff this season. All in all, it seems like a raw deal for Gardy. Barring an unforeseen spending spree to add immediate impact talent, the manager will need to pull off the improbable by making this rebuilding roster competitive or quite possibly lose his job. It's no wonder he grumpily complained to reporters during the Winter Meetings that the front office was "trading my whole damn team." Even if he believes that these moves are for the betterment of the franchise in the long haul, they do him very little good.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2849[/ATTACH]Terry Ryan has seemed exasperated when discussing his efforts on the free agent market this offseason. In an interview on MLB Network shortly after the Ben Revere trade took place, the Twins' general manager reacted incredulously to Ken Rosenthal's suggestion that it might behoove him to get on his horse and sign a pitcher. "We've tried," Ryan chuckled. "Sometimes you just can't give your money away." Well, Terry, you have finally managed to accomplish that much. The pitching-starved Twins finally made their first foray into the free agent market on Monday night, inking right-hander Kevin Correia to a two-year, $10 million deal. Here's what we had to say about Correia in the Offseason Handbook: The final parenthetical sums it up nicely. We predicted he'd land a one-year, $2.5 million contract – similar to what Jason Marquis got last year – and that's probably around where the Twins started. But in this inflated market, there is apparently no such thing as a one-year deal. Not even for a 32-year-old who has only once topped 171 innings, has one of the worst strikeout rates in baseball, and hasn't posted an ERA+ above 100 since 2007. Correia was a fourth-round pick out of college who reached the majors quickly and had some early success. But as he's aged, the quality of his stuff has diminished. When he was 26, he struck out 18.3 percent of the batters he faced. Last year, 12.2 percent. As the Handbook blurb mentions, he was bumped from the Pirates rotation midway through this past season. And he gets $10 million. This is depressing because it means one of two things. Either that Ryan actually believes a player with these attributes is worth jumping on when there are plenty of other names on the board, or that he is having so little luck attracting free agents of any caliber that he felt the need to lock up the first offer that someone – anyone – finally accepted. The GM may have feared that if he didn't act on an opportunity, he might be left with nothing. Then again, nothing probably would have been preferable to Correia. He's been a bad pitcher in the National League over the past three years and he's aging into his mid-30s. It's not clear that he's a significantly better option than Liam Hendriks or Sam Deduno, particularly if you're building toward a future contender. And he gets $10 million. This is one of the most outrageous contracts in an offseason that's been full of them. It's too bad the Twins had to be the ones to sign it. They'd have been better off adding that $10 million on top of an offer to a pitcher who could actually make a difference. Maybe not even that would be enough to entice a legitimate starter to join this club. If that's the case, then the 2013 Twins truly are hopeless.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2843[/ATTACH]After the Twins parted with franchise mainstay Torii Hunter back in 2007, they needed to make a decision about who would take his place in the middle of the outfield. Finding a veteran placeholder was an option, but instead they ultimately decided to go straight to Hunter's heir apparent: a raw but tremendously athletic kid acquired in the Johan Santana trade. Carlos Gomez was clearly rough around the edges when he assumed the important roles of center fielder and leadoff hitter in 2008. At the time, he had played only 94 games above Double-A, including a brief stint in Triple-A and an overmatched MLB debut. Yet, the Twins were seemingly eager to get an early look at their future, and to give fans a glimpse as well. Gomez was the kind of special talent that could captivate folks at the ballpark and soften the blow of losing a player as popular as Hunter. He was exciting. Gomez never realized his potential in Minnesota, but midway through that '08 campaign, it was another young player who came up and made a big rookie splash. Denard Span would supplant Gomez as leadoff hitter by the end of the year, and as full-time center fielder a year later. Span held those designations up until a couple weeks ago when the Twins traded him for prospect Alex Meyer. Span's apparent predecessor, Ben Revere, was surprisingly moved the next week, putting the Twins in a similar position to 2008. Center field is now wide open, and the club has a choice of either filling it with a stopgap (Darin Mastroianni? Free agent?) or transitioning directly to the future with Aaron Hicks. Hicks hasn't played above the Double-A level, where had a breakout campaign in 2012, but this organization has shown a willingness to push its preferred prospects right into the majors with little or no seasoning in Triple-A if there's an opening. We've seen it recently with the likes of Ben Revere, Chris Parmelee and Brian Dozier. Hicks is a year older than Gomez was when he took the reigns in center, and has a more well rounded skill set. Whereas Gomez had shown poor plate discipline throughout the minors, Hicks has consistently excelled in that department with a career .379 on-base percentage, including .384 last year in his first turn at Double-A. Renowned for his above-average range and outstanding throwing arm, Hicks is ready to handle center field defensively in the majors. Whether the Twins will be willing to give him a chance depends on where they feel his offensive game is at, but if they're looking for someone that they can plug into the top of the lineup with Span and Revere gone, Hicks' on-base skills alone seem worthy of a gamble. Certainly his overall offensive game has to be viewed as more polished than Gomez's when he was given the nod. This organization is obviously very high on Hicks. Ryan wouldn't have been willing to deal both Span and Revere if that weren't the case. Do they believe Hicks is ready now? The more I read, and the more I hear, the more I believe they do. Barring a meltdown in spring training, I think the former first-round pick is the front-runner for the center field job. And fans should be very excited about that indeed.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2824[/ATTACH]Trading established players for prospects is the sign of a rebuilding team, and that is certainly what we've seen from Terry Ryan with his first few major moves this offseason. Many casual fans have expressed outrage over trades that sent Denard Span and Ben Revere – cornerstones in the Minnesota outfield – to the NL East for young pitching geared more toward the big picture than immediate improvement. The two prizes acquired in these deals, Alex Meyer and Trevor May, both have what it takes to become true assets in the rotation. In all likelihood it won't happen in 2013, which is understandably frustrating for fans who are tired of all the losing and are yearning for short-term gains. However, the presence of Vance Worley cannot be ignored. He's an established major-league pitcher, and while he's probably more serviceable than great, he fills one of the club's several rotation vacancies at essentially no cost. Assuming that ownership is serious about keeping payroll steady, that leaves Ryan with around $20-25 million to spend on starters who can make a more immediate impact. Adding a pair of $10 million pitchers on top of Diamond and Worley, even in this inflated market, would greatly change the complexion of the starting corps. The rotation is not going to suddenly become an asset -- that was never really a possibility -- but could be good enough to compete, and there's always the chance that Meyer or May will perform well enough in the minors to become a late-season option. To get themselves into this vastly preferable position with the pitching staff while retaining plenty of financial flexibility, the Twins had to part with a pair of valuable and likable players. But Darin Mastroianni ought to be an adequate placeholder and a guy like Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Arcia could very well step in and make fans quickly forget about the previous tenants. Having lost nearly 200 games over the last two seasons, this team was in need of a major shake-up, and we're seeing it. There's no doubt that it hurts to lose players we've grown to love and appreciate, but at the end of the day the GM has dealt away from a position of depth to address a position of crippling weakness. I have held fast to my stance that the best approach for the Twins at this time is to make a modest but meaningful effort at returning to contention next year, with an eye toward the organization's long-term health. After two savvy trades, Ryan is in position to do just that.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2803[/ATTACH]Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported via Twitter on Tuesday that the Twins have "checked in" on right-handed pitcher Shaun Marcum. This isn't really noteworthy, since Terry Ryan has already told reporters that he's been in contact with the agents for every free agent starter, but Marcum's name in particular is an interesting one. Most of the pitchers that the Twins have been specifically connected to thus far – names like Joe Blanton, Brett Myers and John Lannan – are the usual suspects: bargain bin hurlers with middle-of-the-rotation upside and out-of-the-rotation downside. (Of course, "bargain bin" might be a misnomer in this market, even if it includes names like those.) But of course, if they want to even feign contention next year, the Twins are going to need to land at least one guy who could conceivably perform at the level of a No. 1 or No. 2 above Scott Diamond. And given the need to fill multiple rotation spots, they're going to have to find a way to do it without coughing up the vast majority of available funds on one player. So it is easy to see why Ryan might view someone like Marcum as his best bet to land a potential high-end guy, especially with Dan Haren now off the table after signing a one-year, $13 million deal with Washington. Haren was available at a relatively low guaranteed sum due to concerns about the condition of his arm, and the same will likely be true for Marcum. He missed about two months this season due to elbow soreness, which has been a problem for him in the past. (He missed the 2009 season due to Tommy John surgery.) Marcum pitched very well around that injury, turning in a 3.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 109-to-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 124 innings. In the prior two seasons, he had totaled about 200 innings each with a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP overall. Since his surgery, he's been consistently effective on the mound. He strikes people out at a solid rate, throws it in the zone and is quite tough to hit (.241 career OBA). Based on the numbers Marcum looks like a slam-dunk, but that vague elbow tightness from this past summer is concerning, especially for a club that has seen no shortage of arm injuries and is looking for reliability above all else in its additions to the rotation. Of course, the elbow issue could also be a blessing in disguise, because it might be just enough to scare away contending teams from matching a high offer. If the Twins are able to sign Marcum and he stays healthy, he's a legitimate centerpiece to the rotation. Spending fairly big bucks on that gamble is… well, a gamble. But in this environment, what isn't?

If you were surprised in any way by return in the Denard Span trade, you shouldn't have been. Terry Ryan told us this was coming four months ago. Back in July, with the trade deadline approaching, Ryan spoke about his approach: The general manager's recent quotes after trading Span to the Nationals for Alex Meyer reflect the same mindset: This is what I love about Terry Ryan, particularly in contrast to his tight-lipped predecessor, whose initials were fittingly "B.S." With TR, you know what you're getting. While I don't necessarily always agree with his methods, I trust the man. That's why I feel good about this trade. Given that the Twins were known to be talking to the Nationals back in July, when Ryan was describing a "high-ceiling guy" who might be in A-ball, there's a good chance he was targeting Meyer who fits that bill exactly. (Worth noting that Meyer could not technically be traded then as he was less than a year removed from signing, but could have been shipped as a PTBNL.) [ATTACH=CONFIG]2788[/ATTACH] Back around the deadline, a source (from the Nats?) told Jon Heyman that the Twins were "asking a ton" for Span, who didn't end up getting moved. Many people seem disappointed – or at best unenthused – about the return for Span. But it seems clear that one side finally relinquished in this long-time haggling over the center fielder, and the timing would suggest it was Washington's Mike Rizzo. After all, just days earlier he'd watched division rival Atlanta sign center fielder B.J. Upton to a huge five-year deal. That's pressure. My take is that Ryan coveted Meyer highly and the Nationals were very reluctant to give him up, even in a one-for-one swap that brought back a very valuable established player. And why not? Meyer has a first-round pedigree, a fastball that registers in the high-90s and a physical build that could portend dominance. Legitimate top-of-the-rotation potential. No prospect is a sure thing, which is the scary part of all this, but if Meyer develops even into a quality No. 3, six cost-controlled seasons of his service at a time where the price of free agent pitching is escalating will make this a knockout victory. If he turns into a true front line guy, Ryan's trade will be a success of franchise-altering proportions. Span was a largely underrated player and the Twins will miss him, but their long-term outfield depth made him relatively expendable. Ryan could have probably flipped Span for multiple lesser prospects or an ordinary major-league talent, but instead turned in his chip for the high-upside play. Just as he's said he would all along.