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Everything posted by Nick Nelson
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The vibe down here in Ft. Myers is that the pitching will definitely improve this year. Although Vance Worley's ugly outing on Tuesday may still be fresh in your mind, various coaches and media types have commented on how sharp guys like Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Nolasco have looked. Kyle Gibson and Samuel Deduno have both been cruising. There's less confidence that this club is going to score enough runs. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Last year, the Twins tallied 614 runs to rank 13th in the American League. While they made large investments in the pitching staff during the offseason, their moves to address the offense amounted to getting rid of Justin Morneau ad Ryan Doumit -- who ranked second and third on the team in homers with 17 and 14 -- and bringing in a few rebound candidates on minor-league deals, along with light-hitting catcher Kurt Suzuki. Losing the possibility of a midseason impact from Miguel Sano hurts. In order to field a decent lineup, the Twins are counting on several players to either bounce back from down years (Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel, Aaron Hicks) or take the next step (Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, Josmil Pinto). That's not necessarily a reliable recipe for success. So let's get creative and take a look at some things the Twins could do to boost their offensive potential. Dozier Back to Short? It's been discussed before but can't be ignored. Brian Dozier played shortstop almost exclusively while coming up through the minors, and after a brief stint there in the majors in 2012, he was moved over to second base, where he has excelled. Yet, the Twins have some second basemen coming up through the minors who can hit. Eddie Rosario will be back from his suspension in a couple months, and Jorge Polanco figures to start this season in High-A. At shortstop, there's less to be enthused about going forward. Projected starter Pedro Florimon is essentially a lock to turn in an OPS around .600, and despite all the spring hype surrounding Danny Santana, he has a .712 career OPS in the minors and is erratic defensively. How nice would it be to slide Dozier -- who led the club in homers with 18 last year -- over to short, and finally have an offensive threat at the position for the first time since J.J. Hardy's departure? I asked Dozier about that possibility on Wednesday, and he insisted he's "extremely comfortable at second." However, he didn't say he'd rule out such an idea. "Obviously if they (Gardenhire and Terry Ryan) came to me and wanted me to play another position I'd be all ears," he said. "But for now I'm strictly second." Clearly Dozier would be a defensive downgrade from Florimon, and until Rosario is ready there's not even an obvious replacement available at second base. But it's a lot easier to find guys who can hit there than at shortstop, and from my view Dozier didn't look terrible defensively at short when he first came up. Ultimately, the Twins might have to make some hard choices and figure out what they're willing to sacrifice to improve the offense. Utilizing Pinto Initially my thought was that if Josmil Pinto wasn't going to be the regular starter at catcher, the Twins would be best served sending him to Triple-A so he can get regular at-bats. Now, I'm starting to think that they'd be better off keeping him in the majors and finding a way to get his potent bat into the lineup as much as possible. The best approach might be having Pinto start at catcher a couple times a week -- something like a 40/60 time share with Kurt Suzuki -- and having him fill in at DH against righties. This would help out with another key objective: Shielding Kubel From Lefties Asked about how he's felt facing lefties this spring, Jason Kubel said it's "coming along." But you can't ignore the numbers; the 31-year-old has had a rough go against southpaws over the course of his career and it's been especially bad lately. The Twins will be best off maximizing Kubel's greatest strength -- hitting righties -- and minimizing his greatest weakness. Whether that means platooning him with Pinto or someone like Chris Colabello, it'd be nice to see Gardenhire find a workable solution. Finding a Backup Infielder With a Stick After starting his spring with a mind-boggling 0-for-26 slump, Jason Bartlett finally got his first hit on Wednesday. Clearly the veteran's inability to so much as sneak a grounder through the infield or drop in a bloop single over so many plate appearances was a bit of a fluke, but there's not much reason to believe his offensive struggles in general have been a mirage. This is a guy who sat out last year after hitting .241/.310/.317 from 2010 through 2012. I didn't really expect the Twins to make any big offensive additions during the offseason but was disappointed that they didn't add an established bat to the infield mix. There will surely be some intriguing names hitting the waiver wire here as spring training winds down, and it won't be hard to find a guy with more punch than Bartlett. As things stand, the Twins are heavily relying on Dozier and Plouffe to provide production in the infield, and if one should fail or get injured, there's not much to fall back on. Signing Kendrys Morales Over the last two seasons, Morales has hit 45 homers and driven in 153 runs. Willingham is the only player on the Twins roster who can match either of those numbers, and it's solely because of his big 2012 campaign. I'm not convinced that Morales is worth giving up a draft pick to sign, but he's still sitting in free agency and would probably come pretty cheap. What are your ideas to deliver a jolt to this lineup? Share in the comments section.
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Article: Wednesday Notes From Ft. Myers
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ha, it felt lame to write but I don't know what else to say. Perkins actually got knocked around a bit in his outing but, ya know, who cares. They all threw strikes and seemed to have their pitches working. -
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2763-Wednesday-Notes-From-Ft-Myers
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* The Twins' lineup on Tuesday looked an awful lot like one we might see in the regular season, and that makes sense since we're less than two weeks from Opening Day and everyone was rested following a rainout on Monday. I asked Ron Gardenhire after the game if we should make anything out of Alex Presley's presence in center field with this group of potential regulars. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] "Gotta play everybody," he said, downplaying any significance. "Gotta see how they do against lefties, that's why he was out there tonight." From my view, Aaron Hicks should still be viewed as the favorite to win the job, especially since Darin Mastroianni isn't a factor and Wilkin Ramirez is less-than-ideal as the sole CF backup. But keep in mind that Hicks missed time with an injury this spring and hasn't yet shown that he can dominate Triple-A pitching. I know a lot of fans scoff at the notion of Presley in the lineup to start the season, but he's proven to be a decent hitter in the majors. Just because he's not the most exciting choice doesn't make him the wrong choice, at least not initially. Remember: even if Hicks starts in Rochester, he's only a phone call away. * For what it's worth, Rob Antony offered up a pretty frank assessment of the battle between Hicks and Presley for the center field job: "Hicks hasn’t been anything special this spring. Neither has Presley. There’s your center field battle." * Rather than follow Gardenhire and Co. on the three-hour trip to Jupiter, I stayed back in Ft. Myers today to chat with some of the remaining players and watch Mike Pelfrey, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton throw on the minor-league side. They all looked fine. * Also in the stands for the Single-A game that featured Burton and Perkins was a familiar smiling face. Miguel Sano, exactly one week removed from his Tommy John surgery, was shouting encouragement in Spanish and joking with friends. As you can see, he's sporting a massive cast on his right arm: * You can see some more newly uploaded photos from around the complex over at the Twins Daily Facebook page. Make sure to give us a "Like" to follow all the action! * In Jupiter, Kyle Gibson started against the Cardinals and was outstanding, allowing just one run on a solo homer over 4 1/3 innings. He struck out four and walked none, inducing seven ground ball outs. Samuel Deduno came on in the sixth and cruised through two innings before running into some trouble in the eighth, when he allowed a couple runs on two doubles and two walks. His ERA this spring still sits at 2.19. Deduno still hasn't made a start or pitched more than three innings in an outing this spring, so it seems like he's destined for the bullpen. Based on performance, and talent, Gibson should probably be the leading contender in the battle for the fifth rotation spot, but I still have a hard time seeing it. The Twins simply don't have much to lose by sending him to Rochester for a few weeks. That said, Scott Diamond has to be feeling a little pressure as he prepares to take the mound against the Rays in Port Charlotte tomorrow night.
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You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2762-Hughes-Could-Be-Huge-For-Twins
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It was only a minor-league start against Single-A hitters, but still the reviews of Phil Hughes on Tuesday were glowing. "I thought he looked really good, really sharp," said assistant GM Rob Antony. "Hughesy threw the [expletive] out of the ball," said Ron Gardenhire. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] There's a palpable buzz surrounding Hughes this spring. If you ask anyone who's been down here for positive signs they've seen in a camp that has featured its fair share of negative ones, the newly acquired free agent is sure to be among the first names mentioned. Sure, Hughes has put up good numbers -- he tossed six scoreless frames Tuesday and has allowed just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings over three Grapefruit League starts -- but what matters is how he's looked while putting up those numbers. And by all accounts he has looked great. The velocity on the fastball is there. The curveball is moving well and hitting its spots. Opposing hitters are walking away shaking their heads. "He hides the ball well and can move it all over the place with a really nice, sharp breaking ball," Gardenhire said. Although Ricky Nolasco was the banner signing of the offseason, Hughes was the one that stood out most to me. When you can get a 27-year-old former top prospect with major-league success in his track record on a three-year deal at a relatively modest salary, it's a coup even if he's coming off a down season. While Nolasco, at 31, is at an age where decline could soon become a factor, Hughes is in the midst of what is considered his physical prime. He's only 16 months older than Kyle Gibson, and the hope is that those two can become mainstays in a rebuilt rotation that might finally experience some year-to-year stability. The Twins also hope that Hughes can be part of the pitching staff's transition away from absurdly heavy contact tendencies. Last year Twins starters struck out only 12.4 percent of opposing batters. That's the lowest number for any MLB team since 2006 and it left the club with almost no chance of success in run prevention. Over the last four seasons, Hughes has struck out 19 percent of the batters he's faced. You can tell by watching him that he attacks and looks for the punch-out, especially with two strikes. While his K-rates are about average by MLB standards, he should help the Twins move the needle solidly in the right direction. It's been said before, but the move out of New York -- away from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and the power-packed AL East -- figures to benefit Hughes immensely. He's the kind of high-upside free agent play I've long yearned to see from the Twins. Will it work out? Impossible to say at this point. But the signs are very positive.
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You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2760-Out-of-Answers
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There's really no way to put a positive spin on Vance Worley's start Tuesday night. With his chance of making the team very much on the line after back-to-back clunkers, the righty came out and delivered the worst outing of this spring -- for him or any other Twins starter. The final line: 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Six doubles allowed. ZERO swinging strikes on 61 pitches. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Reflecting on the game, a dejected Worley couldn't find words to explain the disastrous performance. "I threw some good pitches to [Evan Longoria], and he's definitely one of the better hitters in that lineup," Worley said, referring to his lone strikeout victim in the second inning. "And, um…" He paused for a moment. "Things happen. I really don't even know how to elaborate on that." Assistant general manager Rob Antony said before the game that the Twins would likely wait a little while yet to make decisions on any of the contenders for their fifth rotation spot, unless it became "obvious" that one was out of the running. It appears that we have reached that point with Worley, who has allowed 12 earned runs on 21 hits in 7 2/3 innings over his last three spring outings, with only 12 days remaining until the season opener. Worley insists that he's feeling good in his bullpen sessions, and that his pitches were moving the way he wanted them to in the game but he just couldn't seem to locate. It's a refrain we've heard before, and one that usually precedes a demotion. There are few things more concerning to a manager than a guy essentially throwing his hands up in the air. At this point the only real question surrounding Worley is whether he'll be working on figuring things out in Rochester or in another organization. The 26-year-old is out of options, and despite his tumultuous run since coming over from Philadelphia, the Twins would rather not lose him. Pitching depth is pitching depth, and the righty maintains some upside even if it's clear he doesn't belong in the majors right now. His brutal results this spring, in combination with his struggles last year, may be enough to dissuade other teams from claiming him. That would allow Worley to stay with the Twins and head to Triple-A, where he would likely join the pitcher who came over with him from the Phillies, Trevor May. There's your positive spin, I guess.
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You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2757-Tuesday-Notes-From-Ft-Myers
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Overcast skies in the morning gave way to a bright sun, and this Tuesday has turned into a beautiful one here in Ft. Myers, where the Twins are getting set to face off against the Rays in a couple hours. To tide you over until then, here are a few notes gathered from wandering around the complex this morning and afternoon:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * Phil Hughes got his work in on the side fields earlier today, facing off against Orioles minor-leaguers under the watchful eye of his manager, who viewed the action from his perch on a tower that sits in the middle of the minor-league fields. It's difficult to judge the performance of a veteran big-leaguer facing minor-league hitters -- particularly the High-A bunch that Hughes was matching up against -- but the right-hander looked good. In six innings of work, he allowed only four hits, and two of those were ground ball singles. Hughes struck out seven, ringing up three hitters on called third strikes with the breaking ball. As Parker has pointed out, mastering that curve will be a major key for Hughes this season. * Vance Worley sat quietly at his clubhouse stall this afternoon while many of his teammates milled around, chatted and played cards. He starts tonight, and he knows it's a big one. In what is essentially a three-player race for the fifth rotation spot, Worley entered the spring third in line based on last year's results, and he remains there based on his results in Grapefruit League play. In eight innings spread across two starts, Worley has allowed nine earned runs on 11 hits (two homers) while walking three and striking out only four. It's widely believed that between Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Worley, two will make the club -- one as a starter and one as a reliever. Deduno has been extremely impressive this spring and Diamond was rock solid in his last outing. Time is running out for Worley to make up ground. He needs to show something tonight. * Pedro Florimon's official spring debut was delayed by last night's rainout, so he'll get his first chance tonight at Hammond. He's trying to hold off Eduardo Escobar, who has enjoyed a good spring and was spotted taking a lengthy session in the cage today, swinging extensively from both sides. * Had a chance to chat with Glen Perkins, who's a lot of fun to talk ball with. We discussed his increasing K-rates, his new contract and the race for the final spot in the Twins rotation. He called out Kyle Gibson as a dark horse contender, adding that the young righty is "throwing great." Perkins is also looking forward to retiring as a Twin, though he joked that the team's success might dictate his career timeline. "If we aren't good by then," he said, referring to 2018 when his new extension expires, "I'll probably just quit." * Tune into the @TwinsDaily Twitter account for insights and observations from this evening's game.
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You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2751-Escobar-Impressing-at-SS
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From the beginning, there was never really any doubt that Eduardo Escobar was going to make the 25-man roster out of spring training. The intriguing young infield talent is out of options and the Twins, short on infield help, were not going to let him slip away. That hasn't stopped the 25-year-old from going out and playing like he's trying to win a job. And that he might. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After delivering a key two-run single in the seventh inning of Sunday's exhibition match-up against Miami, Escobar is batting .333 this spring, with three extra-base hits in 24 at-bats. Meanwhile, the players he's competing with have lagged behind. Jason Bartlett is hitless in 23 at-bats and Doug Bernier is hitting .200 in limited playing time. Escobar has easily cemented himself as the top candidate for a backup infield gig, and he may be playing his way toward a potential starting assignment out of the gates. Pedro Florimon has been easing into action in minor-league games after missing a couple weeks due to an emergency appendectomy. He's viewed as the favorite to start at shortstop but his hold on that job is tenuous at best since he hasn't shown much with the bat in the past. Escobar hasn't proven to be a superior hitter in the majors, but he also hasn't had the chance to settle into a regular position. Last year, after being demoted from the Twins with a .214 average in July, he hit .307/.380/.500 in 43 games at Rochester, and then batted .324 after returning to the majors as a September call-up. So his momentum stretches back beyond the nice spring he's enjoying. Florimon is expected to return to the Twins' lineup Monday. If he looks sharp in the field and decent at the plate over these next couple weeks he'll probably be the club's starting shortstop in Chicago on March 31st. Ron Gardenhire seems committed to getting a long look at the athletic defensive whiz, and Escobar's defensive versatility makes him more attractive as a utility man. But the Twins need offense and they know it. If Escobar proves himself to be the superior threat at the plate as March fades into April, he could very well knock Florimon from his precarious perch atop the depth chart.
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Article: Twins Don't Need More Starters
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
With all respect DFGG, I think you are vastly overrating Santana's potential this year. He's 35 and his shoulder is fried. I'd rather give the playing time to any number of decent arms 10 years younger. The Twins paid Rich Harden a salary last year to rehab his shoulder and never pitch in a game (he was coming off the same surgery Santana just had for a second time, BTW). They also paid Mike Pelfrey $4 million to essentially work through his Tommy John rehab on the field. I can't blame them for passing on Santana. If he does miraculously manage to come back and pitch effectively, they can take a shot at him next year. Money will be no object. -
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2715-Twins-Don-t-Need-More-Starters
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Over the past few days, two pitchers that the Twins have been connected to at various points ended up signing with different teams. Darren Wolfson reported over the weekend that the Twins were interested in Joe Saunders, but the veteran left-hander agreed to terms Tuesday with the Rangers. And Johan Santana, who has of course been linked throughout the offseason to his former club, chose to sign a minor-league deal with big bonuses in Baltimore. A few fans may have been miffed to miss out on these hurlers -- if only for past achievements and nostalgia -- but the truth is both would have been buried by the sudden depth in Minnesota's starting corps. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now, to be clear, I'm not saying that's necessarily great depth. There are a lot of question marks and none of them have been cleared up by a few Grapefruit League games. But Santana and Saunders aren't exactly great options at this point either. And maybe it's that good old springtime optimism shining through, but I feel pretty decent about what the Twins have going on in the rotation right now. Even if you consider regression to be inevitable for Kevin Correia, who, sadly, led last year's staff, there are some nice upward trends to be found here. Ricky Nolasco has been average for most of his career, but is coming off one of his best years, and average ain't so bad all things considered. Mike Pelfrey pitched pretty well in the second half of 2013 and is only getting sharper as he moves further away from Tommy John surgery. I love getting the chance to see what a 27-year-old Phil Hughes can do outside of New York. Samuel Deduno was electric last year and is by all accounts fully recovered from September's shoulder surgery. And here's another guy that I'm really starting to warm up on: Vance Worley. No one expected things to go the way they did last season for Worley -- least of all the Twins, who tabbed him as their Opening Day starter. But even looking beyond the change of scenery, he had a lot going against him. He was coming off elbow surgery, he was probably a bit heavier than he wanted to be, and for some or perhaps most of the season he was bogged down by shoulder problems. His 2013 campaign was unbelievably bad, but Worley had a strong track record beforehand. He's still only 26, he's in much better shape, and John had very positive things to say about his first spring start. We're all just hoping Worley can emerge as a decent fifth starter here in camp, but he's got a chance to be more than that. He has been more than that. Looking past the veterans up front, you've got some intriguing arms ready to join the mix. Alex Meyer, Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Sean Gilmartin and Brooks Raley are all better talents than the Twins had available to them when the high-level depth broke down last year. Would adding Santana or Saunders to that group have really changed much? If anything, it might have taken away opportunities from younger guys who probably deserve them in a season where "figure out what you've got" is likely to be the chief objective (hopefully with more conclusive results than the last couple years). It's true that you can never have too much pitching. But the Twins have quite a bit at this point, and I'm excited to see how it all shakes out. Yes, excited. I'm not even down in Florida yet and already spring's getting the best of me.
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Arizona Diamondbacks - 80.5 - UNDER Atlanta Braves - 87.5 - OVER Baltimore Orioles - 80.5 - OVER Boston Red Sox - 87.5 - UNDER Chicago Cubs - - 69.5 - UNDER Chicago White Sox - 75.5 - UNDER Cincinnati Reds - 84.5 - OVER Cleveland Indians - 80.5 - OVER Colorado Rockies - 76.5 - OVER Detroit Tigers - 89.5 - OVER Houston Astros - 62.5 - OVER Kansas City Royals - 81.5 - UNDER Los Angeles Angels - 86.5 - OVER Los Angeles Dodgers - 92.5 - UNDER Miami Marlins - 69.5 - UNDER Milwaukee Brewers - 79.5 - UNDER Minnesota Twins - 70.5 - OVER New York Mets - 73.5 - UNDER New York Yankees - 86.5 - OVER Oakland Athletics - 88.5 - UNDER Philadelphia Phillies - 76.5 - UNDER Pittsburgh Pirates - 83.5 - UNDER San Diego Padres - 78.5 - UNDER San Francisco Giants - 86.5 - OVER Seattle Mariners - 81.5 - OVER St. Louis Cardinals - 90.5 - OVER Tampa Bay Rays - 88.5 - UNDER Texas Rangers - 86.5 - OVER Toronto Blue Jays - 79.5 - OVER Washington Nationals - 88.5 - OVER Tie breaker: The two AL WC teams will be: Baltimore & Los Angeles Tie breaker 2: The two NL WC teams will be: Washington & Cincinnati
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Although he was signed to a non-guaranteed minor-league deal, the Twins appear to have big plans for Jason Kubel. "We brought him over here for a reason," said Ron Gardenhire recently. That reason is to add a powerful veteran bat to a lineup that ranked 11th in the AL in OPS and 12th in runs scored last year. Kubel has a lengthy track record of slugging success, with six straight seasons of above-average production leading up to 2013, and he has familiarity within the organization. But relying on Kubel to provide a much-needed offensive upgrade is very risky business. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] We all know that last season was a struggle for the 31-year-old. He was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks in August with a .610 OPS, and he then landed in Cleveland, where he limped down the stretch with three hits and 10 strikeouts in 23 plate appearances. Kubel spent much of the campaign dealing with a quad injury, to which he largely attributes his poor results. At full health, the hope is that he'll be able to rebound and regain the explosiveness in his bat that has long made him an asset. No one's hoping that happens more than me, because I was an enormous Kubel backer during this time here and -- as a Twins fan -- I obviously want to see the club score more runs. However, for multiple reasons, Kubel seems like a somewhat shaky bet to provide strong production as a regular at this stage in his career. KKKKKKKKKubel Strikeouts were a glaring issue for the Twins in 2013, when they ranked second in the majors in whiffs with a whopping 1,430. They broke their franchise record for strikeouts with more than a month left to play. Unfortunately, strikeouts happen to be the No. 1 warning flag for Kubel, whose ability to make contact has steadily deteriorated in recent years. Here's a glance at his strikeout rates since his best season in 2009: Year | K-rate 2009 | 18.3% 2010 | 19.9% 2011 | 21.4% 2012 | 26.4% 2013 | 31.7% Yikes. Last year's mark really jumps out. Among 316 MLB players to make 250 or more plate appearances, only seven fanned more frequently. Even though Kubel managed a robust .311 batting average on balls in play, he still hit just .216 overall. That's the nature of things when you head back to the dugout without putting the ball in play nearly a third of the time. So the Twins need to hope that Kubel can cut back on the K's and start at least putting the ball in play. With better health, he may be able to do so, but his career trend suggests that last year's contact issues might go beyond injury side-effects. Left Behind Kubel has always been a liability against left-handers. Local fans will recall this from his days in Minnesota, and it hasn't gotten any better. Last year, the D-Backs and Indians did their best to shield him, limiting him to 40 plate appearances (out of 291) against southpaws. When he did have to stand in against a same-sided pitcher, the results were brutal, as Kubel went 6-for-37 with one extra-base hit (a double), three walks and 16 strikeouts. Ron Gardenhire has never been known for employing strict platoons, but it should be plenty clear that Kubel can't be facing lefties. Since he isn't a very good runner or defender, this leaves him with a pretty limited value offering. He needs to mash right-handed pitching in order to merit any kind of regular playing time. On the bright side, that has been Kubel's greatest skill throughout his career. He's a lifetime .275/.340/.483 hitter with 118 homers against RHP, and when at his best he has ranked among the game's very elite righty mashers. But of course that wasn't the case last season, as he hit just .225/.304/.358 and struck out in 30 percent of his appearances. This is the key area where Kubel can and absolutely must improve by leaps and bounds. If not, it's going to be tough to justify a spot on the 25-man roster, much less a spot in the starting lineup.

