Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3097[/ATTACH]There is little debate over the fact that the Twins' moves this offseason haven't done much to help ensure significant improvement in 2013. This club seems to have its sights set fully on a target somewhere further down the line. Among fans and media, there seems to be a split between people who question this approach and those who accept it. Whatever your feelings on the matter, it's important to be realistic about the timeline for building a contending team around players that are currently in Double-A (or lower). It's also important to remain cognizant of the organization's outlook going forward. Minnesota's present payroll commitment for this year of about $80 million has been a much bandied number. But the numbers get more interesting as you start to look ahead. By using Jeremy Nygaard's excellent Roster & Payroll resource, we can see that in 2014 the team is tied up for about $45 million in six existing contracts. They will have many league-minimum youngsters and a number of players eligible for arbitration (many for the first time) but you could generously assume that $20 million will be more than enough to cover all that. It'd still leave them an Albert Pujols short of their 2012 level. The following year, with Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia, Jared Burton and Ryan Doumit eligible to come off the books, the Twins aren't attached to anyone beyond Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins. This organization has been burdened by some bad contracts in recent seasons, but in two years the Twins are looking at only $26 million in firmly committed money, which is undeniably an enviable position for a rebuilding team. They will have a great deal of flexibility to sign strong performers to contract extensions, fill holes that they can't patch internally and perhaps even make a blockbuster signing. It's not hard to see the big-picture wisdom in this strategy. At the same time, they would have had plenty of flexibility even if they splurged on more than the Correia and Mike Pelfrey types in an effort to boost the quality of their current product. And if they thought signing free agents has been challenging this winter, the competition for desirable players only figures to get tougher going forward with fewer options available and more teams eager to spend added revenues. It sounds like Terry Ryan is at least somewhat interested in luring Joe Saunders, which would change the complexion of this offseason somewhat, but if that doesn't happen and he moves forward with what he has, it would signal his belief in a few things. First, that the current pipeline will produce a core capable of taking this team to the next level, and quickly enough that the organization is not mired in this dismal state for three or four more years. Second, that the pieces he needs to add through free agency and trade (and there will be needs) will be available and will be better investments than pitchers added with multi-year deals now. Finally, that this year's team – which does feature a number of quality players between Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Perkins and others – will not be particularly close to competitive and that he won't regret taking such minimal steps to provide them with legitimate help. I'm skeptical about all those things proving true, but they seem to be the gambles Ryan is prepared to take. He's the guy in charge and it's safe to say he knows a little more about this whole rodeo than me or any other fan expressing puzzlement with his approach, so with the season drawing near, I guess we'll just have to hop on board and hope for the best.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3074[/ATTACH]Justin Morneau presents a paradox for the 2013 Twins. If the club is truly in full rebuild mode and is more interested in saving money than taking financial risks in a meaningful effort to compete -- as appears to be the case -- then why hang on to an expensive veteran with one year left on his contract? Surely some team out there would be willing to take on Morneau, although there probably wouldn't be much of a return in the swap. The answer, I believe, is that the Twins still view Morneau as a star-caliber core player -- albeit one who's been heavily burdened by injuries over the past couple years. Trading him for a minimal return at this point would be Terry Ryan's most appalling salary shed yet. If the first baseman jumps out to a hot start this year, his value could rise significantly, and the Twins appear to be counting on just that. 2012 Recap Morneau's campaign was very much a mixed bag. While it was a major step forward from the disastrous season that preceded it, his .773 OPS was slightly below the league average for first basemen and he failed to reach 140 games played for a fourth straight year. Given the circumstances, his effort has to be viewed as a considerable success, but when you take all that way he was simply a mediocre first baseman who missed nearly 20 percent of the season and cost $14 million. Of course, we know Morneau is better than that. And he showed flashes of it at times. But can he pull it all together? Why He'll Be Better Morneau's 2011 campaign was completely washed away by complications resulting from a 2010 concussion. That injury became less of an issue last year, but unfortunately several other ailments -- along with plain old rust -- seemed to take a toll on him for much of the season. Nevertheless, for extended stretches we saw glimpses of the dominant hitter who had anchored the middle of the lineup for many years. Reports indicate that Morneau is now as healthy as he's been since suffering that fateful concussion. For the first time in several years, he's been able to go about his normal offseason routine, and he has already committed to playing for Team Canada in March's World Baseball Classic. Considering that he's entering a contract year, his willingness to take that extra step says a lot about how confident he's feeling in the state of his body. He's past 30, but Morneau is still in the latter stage of his physical prime and if he can truly put the nagging head and wrist problems behind him, it's not difficult to envision a return to form that sees him batting .300 with elite home run and RBI totals. Why He'll Be Worse We've heard these refrains about Morneau's health before, pretty much ever since his initial concussion. Doctors, coaches and Morneau himself have always chosen to take an optimistic approach, only to inevitably hit bumps in the road. By spring training of last year, it was clear that these realities were bearing down on the first baseman, who openly spoke about the possibility of retiring if his troubling trends continued. Things always look bright and peachy at this time of year, but one bad swing that wakes up his wrist or one jarring blow to the head could send Morneau back down the same spiral. It was pretty obvious last year that his talent is still there, so it will all come down to how well his body can hold up. I don't think anyone doubts the slugger's ability to dominate offensively as long as he can stay out of the trainer's room. But not since 2008 has Morneau made it through a full season without some sort of significant malady. Is this the year he finally puts it all behind him?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3056[/ATTACH]In less than four weeks, a sizable contingent of pitchers will report to Ft. Myers for spring training, with eyes on claiming a spot in Minnesota's rebuilt rotation. Rarely has it been so unclear at this point in the offseason who would comprise this vital unit. We can safely assume that, barring injury, three of the five spots will be occupied by Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Kevin Correia. Beyond them, the situation becomes much murkier. I'll go ahead and surmise that as long he holds his own in exhibition play, Liam Hendriks will claim one of the slots. He got some major-league experience last year, he seemingly has little to prove in Triple-A and we've seen plenty of quotes from Twins brass this winter indicating that he'll have every chance to earn a job. If that proves true, we've still got one final spot that is very much up in the air. Since team officials have expressed that they're done making additions unless someone – as they put it – falls into their lap, it will likely be a spring competition between players already in the mix. Certainly the Twins will expect Mike Pelfrey to be in their rotation at some point, given that they paid him $4 million, but he'll be just over nine months removed from Tommy John surgery when he shows up in Florida. He'll undoubtedly be limited early on and it's hard to imagine he can do enough to prove he's ready for an MLB job at the start of April. I got the sense that the Twins would have loved to see Nick Blackburn step up and claim one of the spots, which makes sense since they'll be paying him $5.5 million, but he'll be going under the knife for yet another arm surgery on Wednesday and will be in a cast for six weeks, pushing him out of the equation. The name I keep coming back to is Kyle Gibson. He hasn't pitched in the majors and has yet to experience sustained success at Triple-A, but the Twins are very high on him and after following up a rehab stint last year by pitching in the Arizona Fall League, he should be physically prepared. But the Twins have emphasized their desire to take it slow with Gibson, leaving one to believe he might require at least a few weeks in Triple-A to prove his readiness. Once you get past these names, the crop becomes pretty inspiring with a bunch of pitchers who should clearly be in the bullpen (Brian Duensing) or in Triple-A (Cole DeVries, Sam Deduno), and a good performance in a handful of spring outings should hardly convince anyone otherwise. Quite simply, the Twins need to hope that Gibson or Pelfrey (or both) provides overwhelming evidence that he should be there. Based on early scheduling, the team could choose to go with four starters for the first couple weeks of the season, which might increase their odds. Who do you feel should be the frontrunner for that fifth spot?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3038[/ATTACH]In his latest column for ESPN 1500, Phil Mackey opens with the following statement: "Unlike in the previous two offseasons, there will be no over-promising and under-delivering by the Minnesota Twins in 2013." Incidentally, that's pretty much exactly how I would describe this offseason for the Twins. Over-promising and under-delivering. Terry Ryan talked at length in the early days of winter about moving aggressively to upgrade the club's beleaguered pitching corps, and because I tend to trust Ryan, I bought into his stated commitment. In his interview for the Offseason Handbook, Ryan stated that the Twins would pursue a "pretty darn good pitcher" in free agency. In a subsequent interview with MLB Network, he responded to a question about his apparent rebuilding approach by saying "I think that's a good excuse to fail. I don't have much interest in telling people we're playing for 2015. We need to get going here, we've had two tough years… We've got to quit talking about building for the future." All of that rhetoric certainly falls short of what we've actually seen this offseason, however. Ryan made a couple nice trades for the long-term, swapping out Denard Span and Ben Revere for some intriguing young arms, but his short-term strategy has been puzzling to say the least. Kevin Correia was the team's top "prize" in free agency, followed by fliers on a couple reclamation projects in Mike Pelfrey and Rich Harden. By nearly all accounts, the Twins have made very little effort to outbid the competition for remotely high-profile names. Now, with at least $15 million in supposedly available payroll remaining, Ryan is "likely done making significant moves." In his ESPN 1500 interview, the Twins' general manager attempted to put a realistic slant on the coming season, noting that making the playoffs would be ideal but is unlikely. This is probably what Mackey was getting at with his opening line, but even Ryan's adjusted goal of playing meaningful baseball in September looks like a reach based on the moves he's made. When your pitching staff ranks as one of the worst in the game, it takes more than a couple low-end stopgap solutions to foster significant improvement, and the club's hesitance to put more of its available funds toward tapping into that middle tier of starters suggests a level of commitment that is not in line with their purported resolve. Up to this point, the Twins have spent minimally in addressing their pitiful rotation via free agency, and if payroll remains around its current ~$80 million mark, it will be $15 million lower than it was last year and $30 million lower than 2011. Heck, right now the number is closer to where it was in 2007 in the Metrodome than where it's been any year at Target Field. Payroll isn't everything, of course, but the amount that the Twins are willing to spend says a lot about their true desire to promptly right the ship, especially with such drastic needs in the starting corps and so many free agent pitchers inking deals. Maybe Ryan and Co. really do believe they've done enough to position this team for a leap forward in 2013. Perhaps they're confident in the ability of internal options to step up, or they have some reason to believe Pelfrey and Harden will be healthy and productive that I'm not aware of. Perhaps there's another move coming and the quotes we're seeing are intended to flip the script by under-promising and over-delivering. Right now that's feeling like wishful thinking. If what we see is what we're going to get, this season is shaping up to be more of the same, and despite their adamant claims to the contrary the organization doesn't appear all that fiercely determined to prevent such an outcome.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3024[/ATTACH]The past two seasons have been filled with disappointment and negative outcomes, but one of the few resoundingly encouraging developments has been the emergence of Glen Perkins at the back end of the bullpen. After fizzling as a starter, Perkins made a supremely successful transition to relief duty and, after signing a contract extension last year, he's in position to provide the Twins with stability at the closer spot for years to come, as long as he can stay healthy. The Twins value continuity in the closer role as much as any team in baseball, as evidenced by the hefty four-year extension they handed Joe Nathan back in 2008 and the considerable resources they invested into acquiring and retaining Matt Capps. Perkins has given us every reason to believe he can be relied upon to close out games for the foreseeable future, allowing the Twins to concentrate on building a bullpen around him and his reasonable contract. Early in the offseason, Terry Ryan cited the bullpen as his second-highest priority behind the rotation. In a way that makes sense, since being able to take a lead means nothing if you can't hold it, but there is clearly a lot less work to be done when it comes to the relief corps. Perkins is entrenched at closer and Jared Burton, who also inked an extension following a sensational Minnesota debut, is locked in as his top setup man. Beyond those two, you've got Brian Duensing, who has established himself as one of the league's better situational left-handed specialists. There's also Anthony Swarzak, a solid fit as the team's long reliever who is out of options and nearly assured a place on the roster. That's four slots in the bullpen that are as good as spoken for, barring injuries in spring training. So even if the Twins characteristically go with a 12-man pitching staff out of the gates, they'll have only three spots left to fill. With a number of candidates vying for jobs, competition figures to be brisk. The picture is already a bit crowded, so it seems rather unlikely that Ryan will be seeking out anymore external help, even though contracts like the one Jason Frasor signed last week with the Rangers suggest that reasonable deals can be had. Here are some of the internal candidates with defensible cases for claiming one of the remaining gigs: Casey Fien, RHP: Fien was something of a journeyman when the Twins acquired him on a minor-league deal last year, but he quietly posted excellent numbers in the second half after an early July call-up. The 29-year-old allowed runs in only two of his first 21 appearances as a Twin and finished with a 2.06 ERA and 32-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 35 innings. He'll have a hard time repeating that performance but it'd be tough to deprive him of a spot based on merit. Alex Burnett, RHP: Like Fien, Burnett finished with a good ERA last year (3.52) but his overall production was far less impressive, as it included an ugly 36-to-26 K/BB ratio and 1.35 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings. Oddly, despite a mid-90s fastball and a sharp slider, Burnett's ability to strike out major-league hitters has waned over time, and last year his K-rate ranked as the second-worst among qualifying MLB relievers (ahead of only Jeff Gray). If he maintains those peripherals he's a poor bet for continued success, but considering his heavy usage and adequate results last year, it's hard to see him being left out. Rich Harden, RHP: The Twins haven't stated their intentions with Harden, who has mostly been a starter over the course of his career, but it stands to reason that they could give him a shot in the bullpen, where his outstanding raw stuff could make an impact and his workload could be better managed. If it works out, Harden could be a great asset in the late innings. Ryan Pressly, RHP: Selected from Boston in the Rule 5 draft, Pressly had success after converting from starter to reliever last year and his high-velocity stuff clearly caught the Twins' attention. He's nowhere near ready for the majors based on his track record, but if the Twins roster him they'll either have to send him back to the Red Sox or work out a trade. Tyler Robertson, LHP: He struggled with walks and homers in his first taste of the majors last year, but Robertson also showed some positive signs, averaging over a strikeout per inning and shutting down lefties. If the Twins desire a secondary lefty specialist in the bullpen behind Duensing (since Perkins doesn't really count) Robertson is a logical choice. Anthony Slama, RHP: The Twins seemingly have very little interest in giving him a chance, but Slama's ridiculous numbers in Triple-A last year make him a necessary inclusion on this list. It sure would be nice to see what he could do against major-league hitters with an extended chance. Tim Wood, RHP: Wood was acquired on a minor-league deal earlier this winter after he proved very effective as the closer for Pittsburgh's Triple-A affiliate last year. He's 29 and his overall career numbers aren't particularly impressive, but he'll be in the mix by virtue of having a 40-man roster spot. The same goes for Josh Roenicke, a rubber-armed right-hander brought over from the Colorado organization. Who would you like to see rounding out the last two bullpen spots? Who else would you like to see in the mix?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3007[/ATTACH]The Twins have taken a "quantity, not quality" approaching in assembling their starting rotation this winter, piling up numerous pitchers with limited upside and low price tags. Several of the hurlers that will be in the mix for starting jobs in the spring happen to be tagged with question marks due to recent health issues. Kyle Gibson returned late last year from Tommy John surgery and hasn't yet pitched in the majors. Mike Pelfrey is returning from his own TJ operation, which he underwent last May. Vance Worley and Scott Diamond both had minor elbow scopes during the offseason. Rich Harden is trying to come back from major shoulder surgery. Given the sheer number of available arms and the fragile nature of many of them, would it make sense for the Twins to open the season with a six-man rotation? This would allow them to get early looks at several different guys while also increasing the rest periods between starts. With pitchers like Gibson and Pelfrey likely to be facing inning restrictions, this approach might help them pitch later into the year. And while the Twins lack punch at the top end of their rotation, they have no shortage of No. 4/5 types so going with six starters wouldn't necessarily dilute the overall quality of the unit much. Assuming they won't be adding any more legit arms, the Twins have put themselves into a bit of a quirky situation, with a high volume of potentially useful starters but a daunting shortage of reliability. In order to work these circumstances to their advantage, they might need to get a little creative. What do you think?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2994[/ATTACH]A new year is upon us, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to determine the Twins' resolution for 2013: Get better. After consecutive putrid seasons that were essentially over by the All-Star break, the club is aiming to field a more competitive group in the coming campaign and beyond. Certainly they've made some nice moves to address the "beyond" part, but what about the short-term? As I discussed with Aaron on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast over the weekend, there's a sizable difference between striving to compete and actually contending. For Minnesota, the latter is highly unlikely this year but the former should be expected. As the Twins work to escape the AL Central cellar, they need to concentrate on making up ground against divisional opponents, most importantly in the pitching department. So let's take a look at all of the arms that have been added to the Central thus far, and see how the Twins' acquisitions stack up. Below, I've listed all the major-league starting pitchers who've been signed, re-signed or traded for by teams within the Central, ranked by my subjective assessment of quality. If I missed anyone, please feel free to add names in the comments section. 1. James Shields (Royals) 2. Anibal Sanchez (Tigers) 3. Jake Peavy (White Sox) 4. Trevor Bauer (Indians) 5. Ervin Santana (Royals) 6. Jeremy Guthrie (Royals) 7. Wade Davis (Royals) 8. Vance Worley (Twins) 9. Brett Myers (Indians) 10. Kevin Correia (Twins) 11. Mike Pelfrey (Twins) You can quibble a bit with the rankings, but looking over this list one thing becomes clear: every other team in the division has sought and landed higher quality on the pitching market than Minnesota. The Twins had a more urgent need for rotation help than perhaps any other team in baseball, and although they've been aggressive in the sense that they've added several players, the ones they've brought in compare poorly against those acquired by opponents. That's not even touching on the other side of the ball, where other clubs have been making additions (e.g. Torii Hunter, Nick Swisher, Mike Reynolds and Jeff Kepinger) while the Twins have been making only subtractions. Minnesota was the worst team in the Central last year and the rest of the division seems to be only widening that gap this winter. Simply unacceptable. The potentially good news is that there are still a few names on the market that would rank respectably on the list above and would considerably improve the grade of the Twins' offseason. These include Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders, but the crop is dwindling. It's unclear whether Terry Ryan is interested in legitimately pursuing any of these players. If he doesn't, it will be difficult to look at his offseason as anything short of a failure.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2965[/ATTACH]With Mr. Bonnes still out of town, I stood in as the geek of the week with Aaron Gleeman for the latest GATG podcast. We spent about 100 minutes babbling about baseball and the Twins, discussing our favorite free agent pitching deals thus far and talking big picture for the local nine. Check out the latest episode via any of these channels: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.