Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4015[/ATTACH]You've probably heard the story by now. On the very day that Vance Worley was told by Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. that he'd been traded from the Phillies to the Minnesota Twins, the 25-year-old pitcher had been planning to pick up an engagement ring from the jeweler so that he could propose to his girlfriend. Worley, who had just signed a lease for a new house in South Jersey nearby Philly, suddenly had his entire life uprooted. He would be leaving the only organization he'd ever known and heading to the American League Central, where instead of pitchers the opposing lineups are rounded out by powerful designated hitters like Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Billy Butler and Mark Reynolds. Tough break for a control pitcher with fringy stuff. And as it turns out, Worley's misfortune was just beginning. Maybe while he was packing his belongings for the move to the Midwest, he dropped a mirror and shattered it. Maybe he walked under a ladder, or a black cat crossed his path. Whatever the reason, the right-hander has been snakebitten thus far for the Twins, experiencing tumult unlike anything he's seen in his career. When he entered the fold, Worley instantly became the Twins' most accomplished starting pitcher, as reflected by his assignment to start on Opening Day. In parts of three seasons with the Phillies, he had compiled an 18-13 record and 3.50 ERA, and in 2011 he finished third for Rookie of the Year. Yet the early results in Minnesota have been roundly disappointing. Through seven starts, Worley is 0-4 with a 6.95 ERA. In 33 2/3 innings, he has given up a league-leading 55 hits, contributing to a ghastly 1.90 WHIP. After each poor start, Worley sounds like a guy who's more flabbergasted than frustrated. "The ball was coming out, doing what I wanted it do," he said after coughing up six runs in Detroit last week. "They just came out swinging." While it might be easy to see a lack of accountability in the pitcher's remarks, it's also not hard to see some truth. He really is doing many of the same things that made him a successful pitcher in Philly. His velocity is the same, he's throwing strikes and his pitches are moving. He is by all accounts healthy and feeling good. His ground ball rate, at 50.4 percent, is actually far higher than his norm. Still the hits keep on coming. Worley has been saddled with a batting average on balls in play of .407, which is the highest in the major leagues and 90 points above his previous career mark. That is a sign of dreadful luck. Sure, it doesn't help that the Twins aren't an especially great defensive club, and Worley has given up his fair share of hard hits, but nothing can explain such an exorbitant number. He's getting killed by bleeders and bloopers. In addition, Worley's HR/FB rate of 13.9 percent is the highest on the Twins staff and the highest of his career. He's stranding only 61.4 percent of his ample base runners – the lowest mark of his career and the lowest of any Twins' starter save for Mike Pelfrey. Certainly Worley needs to make some adjustments. Whether it's scouting-related or the nature of AL lineups, hitters have been more aggressive against him this year and he needs to find a way to leverage that rather than letting it beat him. But he hasn't pitched anywhere near as badly as his numbers suggest, and over time if he keeps executing his game plan he is going to get better results. There's simply no way this run of poor luck can sustain, unless he incurred some type of voodoo curse over the offseason. That isn't to say Worley is going to turn into a legitimate No. 1 starter any time soon, or even that he'll be able to match his NL success. His 12.7 percent K-rate leaves much to be desired and falls well short of his 20 percent mark in the Senior Circuit. Nevertheless, I think his 4.18 xFIP is a much better indicator of what we can expect from him going forward than his current bloated ERA.

* Last week, I wrote that Mike Pelfrey's struggles had a reached a point where he should be removed from the rotation until he demonstrates legitimate signs of progress. In his next start, which came Sunday afternoon in Cleveland, that progress was plenty evident. Go figure. Sure enough, Pelfrey delivered his best start of the season by far, with six innings of one-run ball. His fastball flashed a couple ticks higher on the gun than we ever saw in April, and the added velocity (along with noticeably improved command) paid clear dividends. For the first time this year, hitters seemed to struggle at times to catch up to his heater, increasing the effectiveness of his off-speed offerings. After striking out only seven hitters in his first five starts for an MLB-worst 6.5 percent K-rate, Pelfrey notched seven strikeouts Sunday, with a few coming at crucial moments. He induced a season-high 13 swings and misses. Whether it's the warmer weather, or the kinks being worked out after a month's work, or some combination, Pelfrey looked like a different guy on Sunday. And it was an opportune time for it, because on the same day, three hurlers with eyes on his job – Samuel Deduno, Alex Meyer and Cole De Vries – were all pitching for minor-league affiliates. * Trevor Plouffe displayed again in Sunday's game why he might be the team's most intriguing yet frustrating player. His two-run homer in the second gave the Twins an early lead that stuck. The dinger was Plouffe's fourth this season, placing him second on the team behind Josh Willingham. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3996[/ATTACH] But in the field, there was yet another lapse. In the fourth inning Asdrubal Cabrera attempted to steal third base, and Joe Mauer's throw had him beat handily. Plouffe went down to apply the tag, but rather than holding his glove down he made a quick swipe maneuver. Cabrera took advantage, stopping short with one hand and reaching around Plouffe with his other arm to touch the base safely. It's these kinds of little things that drive Ron Gardenhire crazy. Plouffe has shown again and again that he's capable of making all the plays at third, but his flashiness and inattention to details will do him no favors with a manager who lives and breaths fundamentals. We've already seen Plouffe benched multiple times this season for offenses of a similar nature. Gardy's patience appears to be running thin. But at the same time, the Twins can't afford to take the slugger's potent bat out of the lineup. The manager will just have to find it within himself to live through the miscues, because sliding Plouffe to the outfield no longer looks like a feasible option. * With Sunday's win, the Twins were able to fend off the brooms in Cleveland, marking the third straight series in which they fell behind 0-2 and rebounded to avoid a sweep. To date, the Twins have only come away winless in one series – an early-April set in Kansas City. By this point last year, they'd already been swept four times. Granted, winning one game per series is hardly ideal if it becomes an ongoing trend, but the Twins are showing some resilience, and in the process they're avoiding extended losing streaks.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3951[/ATTACH]In a season where he's largely stayed in the good graces of the fan base, Ron Gardenhire finally awakened the critics on Monday night. With the Twins leading Detroit 3-1 and angling for a big win to kick off their treacherous road trip, Gardenhire sent Mike Pelfrey out to pitch the sixth inning despite the fact that the starter had pretty clearly been surviving on smoke and mirrors all night. Pelfrey had not struck out a single hitter and, in the previous inning, had only managed to work around a single and triple by inducing a hard-hit ground ball double play. Pelfrey took the mound in the sixth and imploded against the middle of the Detroit lineup, allowing an infield single, a walk and then a go-ahead three-run homer to Prince Fielder. Finally the bullpen took over and did its thing, holding the Tigers scoreless the rest of the way, but the damage was done and the Twins sustained one of their toughest losses of the season. Pelfrey's meltdown seemed all too inevitable given the way he's pitched this year. He has failed to complete six innings in any of his five starts, he is allowing nearly two base runners per inning on average with opponents hitting .356 against him, and he has a 7.66 ERA. Pelfrey was never a huge strikeout guy, but he has managed to fan only seven of the 108 batters he has faced this season, giving him the lowest rate in the majors by a fairly wide margin. In light of those numbers, it strikes me that the issue isn't Gardenhire crossing his fingers and trying to squeeze another inning out of the right-hander. The issue is that Pelfrey is on the big-league roster to begin with. When the veteran returned to the mound back on April 4th, just 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery, I marveled at the accomplishment, even if he didn't look very good. It was a great story. It still is a great story; after rocketing through his recovery, Pelfrey has taken the mound every five days, battling and throwing strikes. He claims to feel fine and his velocity is back close to where it was prior to surgery. Those are real positives. But those positives don't mask the fact that Pelfrey clearly does not have what it takes to consistently retire major-league hitters right now. He can't throw past anybody and opponents are putting the ball in the air against him more at an unprecedented rate. Many of his outs are hard-hit liners. Parker pointed out last week the numerous issues present in the righty's game. Surely the Twins are aware of these issues, and they can't be thrilled with the signs of progression on Monday night even if Pelfrey managed to dance through five innings before falling apart. I have faith that Pelf will improve and sharpen up the lacking aspects of his game over time as he moves further away from the surgery (which took place one year ago today, officially), but letting that process play out in the majors, where it's costing the team games, is not acceptable. With Liam Hendriks and Kyle Gibson waiting for a chance in Triple-A while Samuel Deduno inches closer to returning from a groin injury, the Twins have options available that make a lot more sense at the moment, whether the goal is to win now or cultivate for the future. A demotion to Triple-A until Pelfrey proves ready is a seemingly obvious baseball decision. The fact that he's a good story (and, by all accounts, a good guy) shouldn't cloud that.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3918[/ATTACH]T.S. Eliot once famously wrote that April is the cruelest month, and for the Twins that adage has held true over the past two years. Between 2011 and 2012, the team went 15-33 during the season's first month while watching devastating injuries pile up – from Tsuyoshi Nishioka's broken leg and Joe Mauer's bilateral leg weakness to Scott Baker's unscheduled Tommy John surgery. Against that backdrop, the first four weeks of this 2013 campaign have been blissful, even if the club's performance has been more solid than great and the game-viewing conditions have been mostly horrible. With nearly a full month in the books, the Twins are above .500 and everybody's intact. And the temperatures are back in the 70s. Life is great. But like the weather, which is expected to return to depressingly frigid levels in a few days, the Twins' run of good fortune won't last forever. In fact, a harsh dose of reality may be in the offings as they head to Detroit to take on a three-headed monster in Scherzer/Verlander/Sanchez. That brutal series opens a 10-game road trip that should prove telling. Can the Twins continue to frequent the win column while plagued by so many problem areas? The lineup has sputtered too often, ranking 10th in the AL in runs per game and 13th in OPS. The defense has been shaky, with inexperience manifesting in head-scratching miscues. The starting rotation, while seeming on the surface to be a vast improvement over last season, still presents major concerns, especially when you factor in the inevitable return to Earth for ace-of-the-moment Kevin Correia. Yet none of that seems too noticeable. The baseball season is a long one, full of ebbs and flows, and right now the Twins are in a positive place, fresh off their most impressive accomplishment thus far. A stacked Rangers team brought a 14-7 record into a town and tipped off a four-game series with two straight one-run victories. Surprisingly, the Twins recovered from that gut punch and bounced back to split the series with a pair of convincing wins, outscoring the Rangers 12-2. It marked the first time this year Texas has suffered consecutive losses. For Minnesota, this was a statement series, and Correia's gem in the finale was as much of a statement game. The Twins are charging ahead with their trademark formula: throw strikes, let 'em hit it, manufacture enough runs to come out on top. Their pitchers sport the league's lowest K/9 average (6.1) but also the league's lowest BB/9 (2.4). Right now, it's working well enough for them, in large part because their pitchers aren't giving up any homers. (They've surrendered only 11 long balls, tied for fewest in the minors -- unsustainable for such a contact-heavy staff even if it is full of sinkerballers.) While that formula seems unlikely to hold up in the long run, the important thing might be that it's gotten them by until now. As I've frequently alluded, this is a team that stands to get better as the season progresses, and we're seeing that dynamic unfold before our eyes. Aaron Hicks is gradually figuring things out, Oswaldo Arcia is showing promising early flashes, Kyle Gibson appears to be closing in on a promotion and Alex Meyer is tearing up Double-A. Entering the season, my initial thinking was that these early weeks would be the hardest on the Twins, as green rookies went through the usual growing pains and the reassembled rotation took its obligatory lumps. The club has weathered all that, and is still in position to wrap up the month with more victories than losses with a win Monday or Tuesday in Mo-town. No one should be hoodwinked into thinking that the Twins are suddenly a surprise playoff contender because they've played well over their first 20 games, but staying afloat in this first month has been crucial. Recent brutal starts have put a hurt on the team's ticket sales, and could have been especially toxic when combined with the nasty weather this month. Reversing the trend was a high priority. Will this help set the Twins up to carry out their ultimate goal of remaining relevant into the final month of the season? Still a cloudy proposition, but with confidence building and impact help potentially on the way, it's hardly outlandish.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3856[/ATTACH]When healthy, Joe Mauer is one of baseball’s elite players, and a fitting centerpiece for a championship-caliber team. The Twins are aware of this, which is why they locked him up with a $184 million contract back in 2010. When they committed to paying the hometown star $23 million annually for eight years – up until he’s 35 – the Twins knew that the best value in the deal was likely to come on the front end. That’s just a natural facet of baseball and pro sports in general; players are at their best around their late 20s and tend to decline as they age into their 30s while athleticism, quickness and durability gradually erode. That’s especially true for a career catcher with a history of leg injuries. None of that means Mauer is bound to turn into a pumpkin any time soon, but as you watch him right now – 30 years old, fully healthy for the first time in ages – you’re looking at one of the game’s premier players. We can’t take for granted that he will continue to play at this level forever, especially while remaining at catcher. His unparalleled approach at the plate means he’ll probably be a good hitter until the day he retires, but Mauer simply won’t be able to affect games in the same way if he’s a plodding designated hitter or first baseman. Like it or not, that’s in his future at some point down the line. Despite their strong start to the season, the Twins would probably admit that they’re not currently within a window of contention. It’s in their best interest to enter one sooner rather than later, and while there are various reasons for that, Mauer has to rank near the top of the list. All the talk we heard during the offseason about how the organization should set its sights on competing in 2016 never made any sense; are the Twins just supposed to let three potentially great years from one of the best players in franchise history go to waste while waiting for prospects to (hopefully) grow into big-league contributors? Fortunately, the rebuilding timeline doesn’t presently look as daunting as some feared. In part, that’s because a couple guys that the Twins expect to be part of their next contending core – Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia – are already getting their feet wet in the big leagues. Meanwhile, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are obliterating their current levels and could be on the move more quickly than anticipated. Of course, pitching is the key piece in this equation, and in that department the Twins also seem headed rapidly in the right direction. Newly acquired starter Alex Meyer – who, let’s face it, might be the single most important prospect in the system with the way the organization has put all its eggs in the “potential ace” basket – is off to a torrid start in New Britain with a 1.69 ERA and plenty of strikeouts through three starts. His teammate and fellow fresh acquisition Trevor May has also flashed some dominance, though his typical command issues remain present. Kyle Gibson has been solid in Triple-A. It seems likely that at least two, and maybe all three, of these young hurlers will get a chance to pitch in the majors at some point this year, positioning them to help fill out a rotation that already features one or two quality long-term pieces. Put it all together, knock on some wood, and you’ve got an organization headed toward an ideal scenario: a group of capable young players with a bit of experience surrounding a still prime-aged superstar, with plenty of money available to fill in holes as needed.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3834[/ATTACH]On April 13th at Target Field, Aaron Hicks went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, dropping his batting average to .047. It was the seventh time in 10 major-league games that he'd notched multiple strikeouts, and in total the rookie had whiffed in a whopping 43 percent of his plate appearances. With the season two weeks old, even Hicks' most staunch supporters were facing the reality that his struggles amounted to more than a mere slump. He was overwhelmed and his issues at the plate were compounding rather than clearing. At this point the Twins had begun feeling pressure to make a move of some kind ("I'll let you know when we do that," Ron Gardenhire told an inquiring reporter, "so you don't have to ask every day anymore"), and surely they were weighing their options. Ultimately, they decided to stick with Hicks, albeit while sliding him down in the batting order, and it sounds like the decision was heavily influenced by another ambitious rookie -- first-year hitting coach Tom Brunansky. When Gardenhire told Pioneer Press reporter Mike Berardino of the decision to keep Hicks around, Berardino inferred that "Brunansky lobbied hard to keep working with [Hicks]." Said Gardenhire: "Talking with Brunansky, his feeling is he wants to work with this kid. He believes he can get him right. I'm with Tom." That's pretty bold for Bruno, who's still in his first few weeks on the job as a major-league hitting coach. Hicks appeared totally lost in the woods, which is not necessarily shocking for a 23-year-old straight out of Double-A, prompting many to believe he should spend some time in Rochester. Of course, Brunansky knows a little bit about fast rises. In his playing career, he rocketed through the minors and was an effective full-time big-leaguer by the age of 21. His coaching career has followed a similarly steep ascent; he rejoined the Twins organization as a rookie-league hitting instructor in 2010, and has climbed from there to Double-A to Triple-A to the majors within a span of three years. Perhaps, through that experience, Brunansky can offer some perspective to the discombobulated Hicks. Whatever they're doing right now, it seems to be helping. In four games since the three-strikeout performance against the Mets, the center fielder has drawn six walks, and he hadn't struck out until fanning on a full count in his fourth trip on Sunday. There's been a visible and dramatic improvement in his previously broken plate approach, and if he can keep it up, his slump-busting RBI single will only be the start of a full-fledged turnaround. Presently he's still hitting .059, but Hicks is seeing the ball better, working into favorable counts and heading to the box with more confidence. If sustained, those trends will lead to a rapid rise in his batting average. With a little help, he seems to be finding his way.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3781[/ATTACH]During spring training, I observed a trend. It seemed that, all too frequently, a Twins starting pitcher would get knocked around in an outing, and then remark after the game that he felt good about his performance. Executed his pitches and just didn't get results. I asked a beat reporter in Ft. Myers, and he mentioned that he'd noticed the same pattern. Of course, there's nothing groundbreaking or especially noteworthy about this. Pitchers are generally not concerned with their numbers in March, and often work on strengthening their weakest offerings. Still, to see shellackings played off with the shrug of a shoulder struck a chord in light of the rotation's performance in 2012, and my fears that the unit grew only more contact-heavy in the offseason. One particular incident stands out in my memory. The Twins were playing against the Rays in Port Charlotte in mid-March. Vance Worley was facing Luke Scott, and with an 0-2 count he delivered a sinking fastball in on the hands. Scott turned on it and drilled it over the fence for a home run. After the game, Worley expressed little regret over the pitch, telling reporters, "It did what it was supposed to do" and tipping his cap to Scott. I don't know if I've ever before heard a major-league hurler say that an 0-2 pitch "did what it was supposed to do" if the hitter made any type of contact with it. In that count, the pitcher is in complete control, able to fling anything that might fool his outflanked opponent. Worley's signature pitch did what it was supposed to do, and an unspectacular hitter deposited it in the stands? Not encouraging. Worley expressed the same type of sentiment after his meltdown against the Mets on Friday night. "They're hitting it where my guys aren't at," he told reporters. "I feel I'm not giving up real hard hits. It's just a matter of where they're hitting it." Here's the thing about these quotes: they're not wrong. Even when Worley is in his element, he relies on batted balls ending up in gloves. On certain nights the opposing lineup is going to string hits and beat him, even when he's executing his plan. That doesn't make him a bad pitcher, but it's the nature of a guy who throws his stuff around the zone and doesn't expect to miss many bats. Some have voiced frustration over what they see as a lack of accountability in Worley's remarks, but I just see an intelligent guy who knows what he is and realizes that he'll always be at the mercy of his fielders and plain old luck. Worley was a fitting Opening Day starter and tone-setter for this rotation. Each of the members behind him follows essentially the same blueprint, so it wouldn't be surprising to hear any of them respond similarly to a dud performance. It's not impossible to excel with this approach, and in fact when it's clicking the outings tend to be longer and more efficient. Nick Blackburn v. 2009 and Carlos Silva v. 2007 are prime examples of this. They logged 200 innings and healthily outweighed their bad starts with solid ones. But these examples also attest to the downside of a pitcher who lives and dies by contact; should he lose the slightest bit of movement on his sinker, or should an injury alter his mechanics a tad, hitters begin feasting. Suddenly those pitches look like beach balls. It's a fine line, and one the Twins are walking far too much in their starting corps this year. The rotation consists entirely of pure pitch-to-contact guys, and as a result starters have totaled only 27 strikeouts through 13 games. Defensively, they've proven ill-equipped to handle so many attempts, with bungled plays already piling up. But even with stellar glove support, a starting staff cannot expect to succeed while striking out only 9 percent of opposing hitters, as the Twins have up to this point. I think that number may slightly understate the strikeout proficiency of the current group but not by a whole lot. I just don't see how a rotation with this makeup can possibly expect to stay afloat. The good news is that the unit's makeup is likely to change as we move forward, and there are some interesting arms on the horizon with a chance to break the contact-heavy trend. Kyle Gibson should be up from Triple-A before long and while not a strikeout machine he'll likely miss more bats than any current Twins starter. Newly acquired fireballer Alex Meyer is off to a strong start in Double-A and has a chance to join the big-league club later this season, as does fellow New Britain Rock Cat Trevor May, who led the Eastern League in strikeouts last year. Add in veteran wild cards Rich Harden and Rafael Perez – who both have histories of dominance and should at least get a chance to start when they're fully healthy – and you've got a solid mix of potential options to enter the fold and add an element that is completely amiss in the Twins' rotation right now: intimidation.

According to the Star Tribune's Phil Miller, the Twins have elected to call up red-hot prospect Oswaldo Arcia from Triple-A. It appears that Arcia's major-league debut will be a brief one – just a few days while backup outfielder Wilkin Ramirez is away for the birth of his child – but still the decision carries many levels of intrigue. Arcia is an exciting yet curious choice as a roster fill-in. Typically in a situation like this, a team will simply call up a body to provide depth, especially when the departing player is a fifth outfielder. Instead, the Twins have opted for one of their top prospects, a fast-tracked 21-year-old with 78 games of experience above Single-A. Arcia will likely be in the starting lineup on Monday, and for the rest of the Angels series; you don't call a player like this up to put him on the bench. He'll become the youngest player to debut for the Twins since Joe Mauer back in 2004. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3756[/ATTACH] I can't imagine the Twins will play Arcia in center, so subbing him for Aaron Hicks isn't really an option. That means Ron Gardenhire will have to shuffle his lineup to find room for the hot prospect. Maybe Gardenhire will have him spell Chris Parmelee in right field one day, then try him in left while sliding Willingham to DH the next. Meanwhile, a Rochester team that's gotten off to a rough start loses its best hitter for a short spell. Seems like a lot of to-do when the kid is only going to be up for three days, but this clearly signifies that the Twins want to get a look at Arcia in the majors, and now. It also might be a sign that they're looking to sway the public sentiment surrounding their product. With depressing mid-April snow showering the Twin Cities, the organization has been weathering an early-season storm of its own. The team has tanked after a nice start, with five straight losses marked by dreadful starting pitching, frustrating miscues in the field and repeated missed opportunities at the plate. Their heralded rookie center fielder has been an unmitigated disaster. They've also been dealing with painfully low turnout and blowback from their batting practice PR blunder. The Twins needed some sort of positive spark to turn the tide, and while this likely wasn't the driving factor in Arcia's promotion, it's an unmistakable side benefit. After impressing coaches in spring training (I heard rumblings in Ft. Myers of Gardenhire's adoration), the young outfielder has opened his season in Rochester by obliterating Triple-A pitching, with a .414/.500/.793 hitting line to go along with three homers and eight RBI through nine games. While some prospects in the lower minors have gotten off to good starts, Arcia is knocking on the door at the highest level and is clearly the system's headliner right now. And so the club will take advantage of this opportunity to showcase that headliner, if only for one series. The question that now arises is this: What do the Twins do if Arcia comes up and absolutely rakes for three games? Sending him back down negates the good vibes created by his early arrival, yet there's no path to long-term regular playing time with the big-league club. Willingham and Parmelee are locked into the outfield corners, and Doumit is going to get the majority of at-bats at DH. Of course, this wouldn't necessarily be a bad problem to have. Rather than seeking to downplay any stir created by Arcia's fast start and the disappointing early returns from the lineup, the Twins are actively fanning the flames, especially if the rook makes an impact at Target Field this week. Maybe that's the whole point. A message is being sent not only to Arcia, whose thunderous bat is being noticed and rewarded, but also to the players in the Twins' lineup who have been scuffling early on.