Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3918[/ATTACH]T.S. Eliot once famously wrote that April is the cruelest month, and for the Twins that adage has held true over the past two years. Between 2011 and 2012, the team went 15-33 during the season's first month while watching devastating injuries pile up – from Tsuyoshi Nishioka's broken leg and Joe Mauer's bilateral leg weakness to Scott Baker's unscheduled Tommy John surgery. Against that backdrop, the first four weeks of this 2013 campaign have been blissful, even if the club's performance has been more solid than great and the game-viewing conditions have been mostly horrible. With nearly a full month in the books, the Twins are above .500 and everybody's intact. And the temperatures are back in the 70s. Life is great. But like the weather, which is expected to return to depressingly frigid levels in a few days, the Twins' run of good fortune won't last forever. In fact, a harsh dose of reality may be in the offings as they head to Detroit to take on a three-headed monster in Scherzer/Verlander/Sanchez. That brutal series opens a 10-game road trip that should prove telling. Can the Twins continue to frequent the win column while plagued by so many problem areas? The lineup has sputtered too often, ranking 10th in the AL in runs per game and 13th in OPS. The defense has been shaky, with inexperience manifesting in head-scratching miscues. The starting rotation, while seeming on the surface to be a vast improvement over last season, still presents major concerns, especially when you factor in the inevitable return to Earth for ace-of-the-moment Kevin Correia. Yet none of that seems too noticeable. The baseball season is a long one, full of ebbs and flows, and right now the Twins are in a positive place, fresh off their most impressive accomplishment thus far. A stacked Rangers team brought a 14-7 record into a town and tipped off a four-game series with two straight one-run victories. Surprisingly, the Twins recovered from that gut punch and bounced back to split the series with a pair of convincing wins, outscoring the Rangers 12-2. It marked the first time this year Texas has suffered consecutive losses. For Minnesota, this was a statement series, and Correia's gem in the finale was as much of a statement game. The Twins are charging ahead with their trademark formula: throw strikes, let 'em hit it, manufacture enough runs to come out on top. Their pitchers sport the league's lowest K/9 average (6.1) but also the league's lowest BB/9 (2.4). Right now, it's working well enough for them, in large part because their pitchers aren't giving up any homers. (They've surrendered only 11 long balls, tied for fewest in the minors -- unsustainable for such a contact-heavy staff even if it is full of sinkerballers.) While that formula seems unlikely to hold up in the long run, the important thing might be that it's gotten them by until now. As I've frequently alluded, this is a team that stands to get better as the season progresses, and we're seeing that dynamic unfold before our eyes. Aaron Hicks is gradually figuring things out, Oswaldo Arcia is showing promising early flashes, Kyle Gibson appears to be closing in on a promotion and Alex Meyer is tearing up Double-A. Entering the season, my initial thinking was that these early weeks would be the hardest on the Twins, as green rookies went through the usual growing pains and the reassembled rotation took its obligatory lumps. The club has weathered all that, and is still in position to wrap up the month with more victories than losses with a win Monday or Tuesday in Mo-town. No one should be hoodwinked into thinking that the Twins are suddenly a surprise playoff contender because they've played well over their first 20 games, but staying afloat in this first month has been crucial. Recent brutal starts have put a hurt on the team's ticket sales, and could have been especially toxic when combined with the nasty weather this month. Reversing the trend was a high priority. Will this help set the Twins up to carry out their ultimate goal of remaining relevant into the final month of the season? Still a cloudy proposition, but with confidence building and impact help potentially on the way, it's hardly outlandish.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3856[/ATTACH]When healthy, Joe Mauer is one of baseball’s elite players, and a fitting centerpiece for a championship-caliber team. The Twins are aware of this, which is why they locked him up with a $184 million contract back in 2010. When they committed to paying the hometown star $23 million annually for eight years – up until he’s 35 – the Twins knew that the best value in the deal was likely to come on the front end. That’s just a natural facet of baseball and pro sports in general; players are at their best around their late 20s and tend to decline as they age into their 30s while athleticism, quickness and durability gradually erode. That’s especially true for a career catcher with a history of leg injuries. None of that means Mauer is bound to turn into a pumpkin any time soon, but as you watch him right now – 30 years old, fully healthy for the first time in ages – you’re looking at one of the game’s premier players. We can’t take for granted that he will continue to play at this level forever, especially while remaining at catcher. His unparalleled approach at the plate means he’ll probably be a good hitter until the day he retires, but Mauer simply won’t be able to affect games in the same way if he’s a plodding designated hitter or first baseman. Like it or not, that’s in his future at some point down the line. Despite their strong start to the season, the Twins would probably admit that they’re not currently within a window of contention. It’s in their best interest to enter one sooner rather than later, and while there are various reasons for that, Mauer has to rank near the top of the list. All the talk we heard during the offseason about how the organization should set its sights on competing in 2016 never made any sense; are the Twins just supposed to let three potentially great years from one of the best players in franchise history go to waste while waiting for prospects to (hopefully) grow into big-league contributors? Fortunately, the rebuilding timeline doesn’t presently look as daunting as some feared. In part, that’s because a couple guys that the Twins expect to be part of their next contending core – Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia – are already getting their feet wet in the big leagues. Meanwhile, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are obliterating their current levels and could be on the move more quickly than anticipated. Of course, pitching is the key piece in this equation, and in that department the Twins also seem headed rapidly in the right direction. Newly acquired starter Alex Meyer – who, let’s face it, might be the single most important prospect in the system with the way the organization has put all its eggs in the “potential ace” basket – is off to a torrid start in New Britain with a 1.69 ERA and plenty of strikeouts through three starts. His teammate and fellow fresh acquisition Trevor May has also flashed some dominance, though his typical command issues remain present. Kyle Gibson has been solid in Triple-A. It seems likely that at least two, and maybe all three, of these young hurlers will get a chance to pitch in the majors at some point this year, positioning them to help fill out a rotation that already features one or two quality long-term pieces. Put it all together, knock on some wood, and you’ve got an organization headed toward an ideal scenario: a group of capable young players with a bit of experience surrounding a still prime-aged superstar, with plenty of money available to fill in holes as needed.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3834[/ATTACH]On April 13th at Target Field, Aaron Hicks went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, dropping his batting average to .047. It was the seventh time in 10 major-league games that he'd notched multiple strikeouts, and in total the rookie had whiffed in a whopping 43 percent of his plate appearances. With the season two weeks old, even Hicks' most staunch supporters were facing the reality that his struggles amounted to more than a mere slump. He was overwhelmed and his issues at the plate were compounding rather than clearing. At this point the Twins had begun feeling pressure to make a move of some kind ("I'll let you know when we do that," Ron Gardenhire told an inquiring reporter, "so you don't have to ask every day anymore"), and surely they were weighing their options. Ultimately, they decided to stick with Hicks, albeit while sliding him down in the batting order, and it sounds like the decision was heavily influenced by another ambitious rookie -- first-year hitting coach Tom Brunansky. When Gardenhire told Pioneer Press reporter Mike Berardino of the decision to keep Hicks around, Berardino inferred that "Brunansky lobbied hard to keep working with [Hicks]." Said Gardenhire: "Talking with Brunansky, his feeling is he wants to work with this kid. He believes he can get him right. I'm with Tom." That's pretty bold for Bruno, who's still in his first few weeks on the job as a major-league hitting coach. Hicks appeared totally lost in the woods, which is not necessarily shocking for a 23-year-old straight out of Double-A, prompting many to believe he should spend some time in Rochester. Of course, Brunansky knows a little bit about fast rises. In his playing career, he rocketed through the minors and was an effective full-time big-leaguer by the age of 21. His coaching career has followed a similarly steep ascent; he rejoined the Twins organization as a rookie-league hitting instructor in 2010, and has climbed from there to Double-A to Triple-A to the majors within a span of three years. Perhaps, through that experience, Brunansky can offer some perspective to the discombobulated Hicks. Whatever they're doing right now, it seems to be helping. In four games since the three-strikeout performance against the Mets, the center fielder has drawn six walks, and he hadn't struck out until fanning on a full count in his fourth trip on Sunday. There's been a visible and dramatic improvement in his previously broken plate approach, and if he can keep it up, his slump-busting RBI single will only be the start of a full-fledged turnaround. Presently he's still hitting .059, but Hicks is seeing the ball better, working into favorable counts and heading to the box with more confidence. If sustained, those trends will lead to a rapid rise in his batting average. With a little help, he seems to be finding his way.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3781[/ATTACH]During spring training, I observed a trend. It seemed that, all too frequently, a Twins starting pitcher would get knocked around in an outing, and then remark after the game that he felt good about his performance. Executed his pitches and just didn't get results. I asked a beat reporter in Ft. Myers, and he mentioned that he'd noticed the same pattern. Of course, there's nothing groundbreaking or especially noteworthy about this. Pitchers are generally not concerned with their numbers in March, and often work on strengthening their weakest offerings. Still, to see shellackings played off with the shrug of a shoulder struck a chord in light of the rotation's performance in 2012, and my fears that the unit grew only more contact-heavy in the offseason. One particular incident stands out in my memory. The Twins were playing against the Rays in Port Charlotte in mid-March. Vance Worley was facing Luke Scott, and with an 0-2 count he delivered a sinking fastball in on the hands. Scott turned on it and drilled it over the fence for a home run. After the game, Worley expressed little regret over the pitch, telling reporters, "It did what it was supposed to do" and tipping his cap to Scott. I don't know if I've ever before heard a major-league hurler say that an 0-2 pitch "did what it was supposed to do" if the hitter made any type of contact with it. In that count, the pitcher is in complete control, able to fling anything that might fool his outflanked opponent. Worley's signature pitch did what it was supposed to do, and an unspectacular hitter deposited it in the stands? Not encouraging. Worley expressed the same type of sentiment after his meltdown against the Mets on Friday night. "They're hitting it where my guys aren't at," he told reporters. "I feel I'm not giving up real hard hits. It's just a matter of where they're hitting it." Here's the thing about these quotes: they're not wrong. Even when Worley is in his element, he relies on batted balls ending up in gloves. On certain nights the opposing lineup is going to string hits and beat him, even when he's executing his plan. That doesn't make him a bad pitcher, but it's the nature of a guy who throws his stuff around the zone and doesn't expect to miss many bats. Some have voiced frustration over what they see as a lack of accountability in Worley's remarks, but I just see an intelligent guy who knows what he is and realizes that he'll always be at the mercy of his fielders and plain old luck. Worley was a fitting Opening Day starter and tone-setter for this rotation. Each of the members behind him follows essentially the same blueprint, so it wouldn't be surprising to hear any of them respond similarly to a dud performance. It's not impossible to excel with this approach, and in fact when it's clicking the outings tend to be longer and more efficient. Nick Blackburn v. 2009 and Carlos Silva v. 2007 are prime examples of this. They logged 200 innings and healthily outweighed their bad starts with solid ones. But these examples also attest to the downside of a pitcher who lives and dies by contact; should he lose the slightest bit of movement on his sinker, or should an injury alter his mechanics a tad, hitters begin feasting. Suddenly those pitches look like beach balls. It's a fine line, and one the Twins are walking far too much in their starting corps this year. The rotation consists entirely of pure pitch-to-contact guys, and as a result starters have totaled only 27 strikeouts through 13 games. Defensively, they've proven ill-equipped to handle so many attempts, with bungled plays already piling up. But even with stellar glove support, a starting staff cannot expect to succeed while striking out only 9 percent of opposing hitters, as the Twins have up to this point. I think that number may slightly understate the strikeout proficiency of the current group but not by a whole lot. I just don't see how a rotation with this makeup can possibly expect to stay afloat. The good news is that the unit's makeup is likely to change as we move forward, and there are some interesting arms on the horizon with a chance to break the contact-heavy trend. Kyle Gibson should be up from Triple-A before long and while not a strikeout machine he'll likely miss more bats than any current Twins starter. Newly acquired fireballer Alex Meyer is off to a strong start in Double-A and has a chance to join the big-league club later this season, as does fellow New Britain Rock Cat Trevor May, who led the Eastern League in strikeouts last year. Add in veteran wild cards Rich Harden and Rafael Perez – who both have histories of dominance and should at least get a chance to start when they're fully healthy – and you've got a solid mix of potential options to enter the fold and add an element that is completely amiss in the Twins' rotation right now: intimidation.

According to the Star Tribune's Phil Miller, the Twins have elected to call up red-hot prospect Oswaldo Arcia from Triple-A. It appears that Arcia's major-league debut will be a brief one – just a few days while backup outfielder Wilkin Ramirez is away for the birth of his child – but still the decision carries many levels of intrigue. Arcia is an exciting yet curious choice as a roster fill-in. Typically in a situation like this, a team will simply call up a body to provide depth, especially when the departing player is a fifth outfielder. Instead, the Twins have opted for one of their top prospects, a fast-tracked 21-year-old with 78 games of experience above Single-A. Arcia will likely be in the starting lineup on Monday, and for the rest of the Angels series; you don't call a player like this up to put him on the bench. He'll become the youngest player to debut for the Twins since Joe Mauer back in 2004. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3756[/ATTACH] I can't imagine the Twins will play Arcia in center, so subbing him for Aaron Hicks isn't really an option. That means Ron Gardenhire will have to shuffle his lineup to find room for the hot prospect. Maybe Gardenhire will have him spell Chris Parmelee in right field one day, then try him in left while sliding Willingham to DH the next. Meanwhile, a Rochester team that's gotten off to a rough start loses its best hitter for a short spell. Seems like a lot of to-do when the kid is only going to be up for three days, but this clearly signifies that the Twins want to get a look at Arcia in the majors, and now. It also might be a sign that they're looking to sway the public sentiment surrounding their product. With depressing mid-April snow showering the Twin Cities, the organization has been weathering an early-season storm of its own. The team has tanked after a nice start, with five straight losses marked by dreadful starting pitching, frustrating miscues in the field and repeated missed opportunities at the plate. Their heralded rookie center fielder has been an unmitigated disaster. They've also been dealing with painfully low turnout and blowback from their batting practice PR blunder. The Twins needed some sort of positive spark to turn the tide, and while this likely wasn't the driving factor in Arcia's promotion, it's an unmistakable side benefit. After impressing coaches in spring training (I heard rumblings in Ft. Myers of Gardenhire's adoration), the young outfielder has opened his season in Rochester by obliterating Triple-A pitching, with a .414/.500/.793 hitting line to go along with three homers and eight RBI through nine games. While some prospects in the lower minors have gotten off to good starts, Arcia is knocking on the door at the highest level and is clearly the system's headliner right now. And so the club will take advantage of this opportunity to showcase that headliner, if only for one series. The question that now arises is this: What do the Twins do if Arcia comes up and absolutely rakes for three games? Sending him back down negates the good vibes created by his early arrival, yet there's no path to long-term regular playing time with the big-league club. Willingham and Parmelee are locked into the outfield corners, and Doumit is going to get the majority of at-bats at DH. Of course, this wouldn't necessarily be a bad problem to have. Rather than seeking to downplay any stir created by Arcia's fast start and the disappointing early returns from the lineup, the Twins are actively fanning the flames, especially if the rook makes an impact at Target Field this week. Maybe that's the whole point. A message is being sent not only to Arcia, whose thunderous bat is being noticed and rewarded, but also to the players in the Twins' lineup who have been scuffling early on.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3708[/ATTACH]For all the buzz he built up during spring training, it didn’t take long for Aaron Hicks to sour the widespread enthusiasm surrounding him. We’re barely over a week into the season and already we’re seeing calls for the rookie center fielder to be shipped to the minors, or at least the bottom of the lineup. In fairness, Hicks has done his part. Through eight games, he has been flat-out overmatched, with two hits, two walks and 13 strikeouts in 32 plate appearances. He torched opposing pitchers during exhibition play, but ever since the games started mattering and hurlers stepped it up, Hicks has looked utterly confounded by big-league stuff. With his reputation for seeing lots of pitches and taking good at-bats in the minors (a trait that was certainly on display in spring training) the Twins had hoped that Hicks would set a strong example with his approach in the lead-off spot. Instead, he has frequently appeared to have no plan whatsoever at the plate, slumping back to the dugout dejectedly after being blown away by vicious heaters and benders the likes of which he’s never seen before. He’s clearly overwhelmed, which may seem like a good enough reason to get him to Triple-A so he can regain some confidence and straighten himself out. If things haven’t changed by the time we get into May, it will be a perfectly justifiable decision, carrying the added benefit of delaying his service clock and buying an extra year of team control. But we simply haven’t reached that point yet. We’re less than 10 games into the season and as bad as Hicks has been over these 32 plate appearances, we’re still talking about 32 plate appearances. If the Twins were going to give him the opportunity to jump from Double-A straight to the majors, they need to at least give him a chance to work through some initial struggles and adjust. At this juncture, the team’s outcomes take a backseat to the player’s development, and while I’m not saying that a trip to Rochester wouldn’t necessarily be the best thing for Hicks, there’s no way to know that yet. He needs time. The same goes for other youngsters who have stumbled out of the gates, such as Brian Dozier and Liam Hendriks. The way players get better is through reps and experience, not through being jerked around and demoted based on short stretches of poor performance. The last thing the Twins need to is to repeat their 2012 handling of Chris Parmelee, who shuttled back and forth between the minors and majors, dominating one level and looking flummoxed (in sporadic playing time) at the other. Looking back, did we really learn anything about Parmelee last year? The month of April is for evaluation. When May and June roll around, then the talk can begin about taking actions based on a more meaningful set of data. For now, the best approach is the one Ron Gardenhire took on Tuesday night with scuffling Hicks and Dozier: give them a day off to clear their heads, then get them back out there the next night (as I suspect they will be).

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3692[/ATTACH]Since starting pitching was obviously going to be an unavoidable weakness, the Minnesota Twins knew they would need exceptional efforts from both the offense and bullpen in order to maintain a respectable record this season. We're only a week in, but thus far, both units have answered the call. In their 4-2 start, the Twins have averaged 4.7 runs per game on offense and the relievers have been outstanding outside of one implosion (or Chris Davis explosion) that led to Friday's loss. Across Minnesota's four victories, the bullpen has delivered 13 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing only seven hits. The meltdown on Friday was painful, but that was simply a poorly pitched game all around, with Liam Hendriks setting the tone by failing to last through the fifth. Outside of that hiccup, the relief corps has been absolutely phenomenal, and easily the Twins' biggest difference-maker in a fast start. That group received another boost over the weekend, when Tyler Robertson – who served up the grand slam that accounts for almost the entirety of damage inflicted against the Twins' bullpen this year – was bumped to Rochester to make room for Anthony Swarzak. I've noticed that Swarzak doesn't garner much fanfare. Maybe it's because of his unglamorous role, or maybe it's because of his failures as a starter. But the guy has proven to be an asset in the bullpen. As a reliever over the past two seasons he has posted a 4.02 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Those are hardly spectacular numbers, but then you have to consider everything else he brings. He's been remarkably durable, frequently pitching multiple innings at a time and always available to start in a pinch. He's generally avoided injury, horseplay notwithstanding. And he's a former second round pick with a live fastball who's still only 27. There may be upside in him yet. On Sunday, Swarzak made his first appearance of the season, recording four critical outs in a close game and earning a win. His return improves a bullpen that has already been a smashing success in this young season.

Welcome to the season’s first edition of Three-Bagger. In these occasional columns, I will examine three different ongoing Twins storylines worth following. Today, we’ll take a look at Mike Pelfrey’s remarkable return to the hill, promising early signs from some key hitters in the middle of the lineup and a growing dilemma at the shortstop position. * I wrote earlier this week about the Twins’ low expectations, pointing out that they’ll need to find different ways to engage fans since a competitive record is unlikely. Good stories are always a draw, and to that end, Pelfrey certainly qualifies. On Thursday, Pelf took the mound to make his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery on May 1st of 2012. Based on my (admittedly non-scientific) research, his is the fastest comeback for a starting pitcher, ever. And unlike most hurlers recovering from the operation, Pelfrey didn’t get the benefit of a minor-league rehab stint. He sharpened up in spring training and dove right in, taking on a potent Tigers lineup at Target Field and performing admirably. The big right-hander threw 96 pitches and worked effectively into the sixth inning. He pitched even better than his numbers suggest, as both runs scored against him were the result of defensive misplays. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3672[/ATTACH] Pelfrey worked mostly in the high 80s with his fastball, occasionally touching 91 or 92. That’s a step back from his pre-surgery velocity, which sat around 95 mph, but he managed to keep the ball down and induce 13 grounders compared to only four fly balls. It was a very encouraging start to the season for a guy who continues to ignore precedence and handle Tommy John recovery on his own terms. * At one point last year, it seemed like the two big right-handed boppers in the Minnesota lineup – Josh Willingham and Trevor Plouffe – were going tit for tat in the home run column. That competition trailed off after Plouffe suffered a thumb injury that sidelined him and sabotaged his production late in the season, allowing Willingham to finish with a hefty 35-24 advantage. It looks like the two are restarting the rivalry early this season. Just one inning after Willingham went deep for the first time on Thursday, Plouffe placed a tally in the home run column with a mammoth blast to left. The presence of these two sluggers in the middle of the lineup is a big reason many – including myself – believe the Twins could be a surprisingly potent offensive unit this year. While we’re still waiting for some other hitters amongst that mix to get going, it’s promising to see Willingham and Plouffe warming up the lumber early despite the chilly weather. * I mentioned earlier that Pelfrey was victimized by some shoddy defense in his outing on Thursday. If it becomes a trend, that’s going to be a real problem for the contact-heavy hurler, and the same goes for essentially everyone else in this rotation. Converting chances in the field will be vitally important this year – a big part of the reason that the Twins opted to start all-glove, no-stick shortstop Pedro Florimon. The 26-year-old has been a consistently terrible hitter throughout his career, so he needs to provide a lot of value on the other end to justify his place in the lineup. So his troubles with routine plays during the first series of the season – an extension of what we saw during his audition last season – are quite worrisome. Florimon is tremendously athletic, with quick reflexes and a great arm. He’s proven capable of making special plays. Unfortunately, he also tends to get too casual with non-rushed throws and lapse on plays that should be made. There’s little margin for those sorts of errors when his value is almost entirely vested in his defense. If the trend continues, Ron Gardenhire should not hesitate to make a change. Florimon simply hasn’t done anything to earn a long leash.

"Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he is never disappointed." – Alexander Pope Have you ever gone to see a movie that was hugely hyped, only to walk out of the theater underwhelmed after deeming it just OK? Conversely, another film that was “just OK” might have impressed you if your friends had all told you it was completely awful. Expectations can have an enormous impact on the way we perceive things. Which brings us to this year’s Minnesota Twins. Reality has finally set in for a fan base that was subjected to almost 200 losses over the past two years. Terry Ryan created no illusions of short-term promise with an offseason plan that was clearly not geared toward rapid improvement. What droplets of optimism existed last year around this time – that perhaps 2011 was a fluke, and that with better health the Twins would rebound toward the top of the division – have mostly evaporated. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3651[/ATTACH] Obviously the lack of hope for this season has led to a dearth of excitement surrounding the product. The lacking buzz was noticeable on Opening Day at Target Field, where patches of empty seats spoke to more than just the chilly weather. I’d describe the current mood of the fan base at large as ambivalent, which is at least a step up from angry. Most who are paying attention can see a clear direction and long-term plan – more than could have been said the last couple years – but acknowledge that the odds of even staying remotely competitive this year are long. If the Twins dig another early hole, the reaction is more likely to be shoulder shrugs than outrage. Simply put: there’s not much room for disappointment with this team. How much worse can it really get? But there’s plenty of room for unexpected outcomes on the other side, and this is where the lowered standards play to the organization’s benefit. Any sort of modest early winning streak will be met with intrigue. If the team comes together after a slow start and begins stringing together some victories in June and July, it will be easy to form (possibly accurate) narratives about a young group beginning to jell. The fact that local ball fans aren’t necessarily too amped up about the current product doesn’t mean they’re not itching for a reason to change that outlook. And therein lies an opportunity for Ron Gardenhire and Co. It won't take a stellar team to reverse the trend of falling attendance. It will simply take a watchable team. If the Twins up being “just OK” this year, most of us are going to be quite pleased. The team should embrace that dynamic, because this will (hopefully) be the last time in a long while that expectations are so low. Perhaps the lessened pressure will prove to be just what this relatively inexperienced group needs.