Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4119[/ATTACH]Who IS This Guy? He might have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in this year's draft class. A few years ago Sean Manaea was a raw high school kid with bad grades and no first-round aspirations, but now at age 21 he's in the conversation to become the first lefty pitcher drafted No. 1 overall since David Price in 2007. At 6'5" and 230 lbs, Manaea has the ability to reach the mid-90s from the left side, making him a rare specimen. He has progressed rapidly in three seasons at Indiana State University, adding new pitches to a repertoire that essentially only consisted of a fastball when he first arrived on campus. He reportedly learned a split-change from a teammate late in his sophomore season, right before participating in the Cape Cod League, where an incredible showing sealed his billing as an elite draft prospect. Pitching in that collegiate summer league last year, Manaea struck out 85 hitters in 57 1/3 innings and walked just seven while registering a microscopic 1.22 ERA. He received the CCL's Outstanding Prospect Award, which in the past has gone to such players as Matt Wieters, Mark Teixeira and Billy Wagner. Manaea is following up that sterling performance with his best season yet at Indiana State. Through 12 starts, he's 5-4 with a 1.47 ERA and 93-to-27 K/BB ratio in 73 1/3 innings. Who Could He Be? With his size and velocity, Manaea offers what baseball evaluators crave. A scout quoted in one article marveled: "You really don't see lefties throw that hard. They're considered freaks and when you see someone projectable to be huge, like him, that's what you're looking for." He's grown so much -- both physically and mentally -- in his three years at college that it's difficult to put a cap on Manaea's upside. If he can stay healthy and continue to improve certain aspects of his game, he's got everything it takes to be a fast-tracked, top-of-rotation MLB starter. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? The history of collegiate pitchers taken in the top five picks portends an accelerated timetable. Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen and Trevor Bauer, who were taken successively with the top three picks in the 2011 draft, are all either in the majors or knocking on the door two years later. Kevin Gausman, the LSU right-hander who went fourth overall last year, is already in Double-A and dominating. Then again, Manaea can hardly be described as polished. He's still refining his secondary pitches, and is said to have some issues with repeating his delivery and controlling the run game. His estimated time of arrival is probably a bit further off than fellow highly ranked collegiate hurlers Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel, but 2014 is not out of the question if things shake out right. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… Manaea has all the physical attributes needed to become a dominant big-league pitcher but there are some questions regarding his demeanor and maturity. He's an extremely laid-back guy who nearly missed eligibility for college due to poor high school grades, which he admits were "due to pure laziness." He's come a long way since then, but will he be able to embrace the work ethic required to become an elite player at the pro level? Additionally, Manaea has exhibited some concerns this year that have dropped his stock a bit. Hip soreness caused him to miss some time and, while he flashed 95 mph heat in the Cape Cod League last summer, he's been clocked more frequently in the low 90s this season. Velocity drops are always somewhat alarming for a player his age. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… The southpaw profiles as exactly what the rebuilding Twins need: a high-upside arm with the potential to be major-league ready pretty quickly. Although he isn't as advanced as some of the other pitchers available, Manaea has all the traits you'd like to see in a top draft pick and would be an excellent addition to Minnesota's suddenly burgeoning core of pitching prospects.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4099[/ATTACH]Mike Berardino, the excellent new beat writer for the Pioneer Press, linked to a new story on Wednesday with an amusing teaser: "Attention Gibsonites: Kyle Gibson takes a step back at Rochester." Gibsonites. I like it. And it’s a label I’ll proudly wear because, from my view, it seems obvious that Gibson should be on the major-league roster by now. Yes, it's true. The right-hander had a poor outing on Wednesday. The Twins are of course no strangers to those. In his worst start of the season, Gibson lasted only three-plus innings, coughing up four runs on seven hits. On the same day, Mike Pelfrey turned in yet another unimpressive effort for the Twins. Along with Vance Worley and Pedro Hernandez, Pelfrey has been a mess, helping to saddle Minnesota's starting corps with the second-worst ERA in the major leagues. Worley owns the highest opponents’ batting average in the game at .379 and Pelfrey ranks fourth at .339. Hernandez has allowed a 1.172 OPS against right-handed hitters, demonstrating why he doesn’t belong in an MLB rotation. Unlike those three struggling starters, Gibson has found success more often than not this year. He hurled a complete game shutout prior to Wednesday's dud, and his overall numbers -- 3.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 38/12 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings -- are perfectly solid. One could say he's been inconsistent, but look at what we're comparing him to. The Twins should feel compelled to shake things up in their rotation at this point because the passive approach isn't working. Even looking beyond the potential for improved results, there is the matter of Gibson's development, which should rank as a high priority at this point. He was considered nearly big-league ready before he suffered his injury, and he's now 20 months removed from surgery. In late April, Terry Ryan declared the 25-year-old pitching prospect to be “100 percent.” “There’s no question – his arm, delivery, his mechanics. Everything is in good order, which is encouraging,” said the general manager. So… what’s the hold-up? The Twins set a 130-150 inning cap for Gibson this year in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, and he’s already closing in on 50 frames at Triple-A. How many more of his limited innings will be used up facing minor-league hitters, whom he’s proven capable of handling in spite of a couple clunky outings, when he could be gaining valuable MLB experience? It’s a bit of a baffling situation when you consider that standing in Gibson’s way are some of the most hittable pitchers in the major leagues. Even if he struggles to adapt, you’d be hard-pressed to argue that the former first-round pick would be a downgrade from any member of the rotation not named Scott Diamond or Kevin Correia.

After finishing the month of April ranked near the bottom of the American League in most categories, the Twins’ offense has undergone a stunning turnaround here in May, where they led the league in scoring through Tuesday. Prior to Wednesday's loss to the White Sox, the Twins had averaged 6.2 runs per game this month and had crossed the plate five or more times in eight of their past nine games. A sleeping beast awakened, indeed. Can this unit continue to excel and help keep the team hovering around .500? That will largely be dependent on how young contributors like Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Brian Dozier and Chris Parmelee progress, but even more so it may be dictated by the two veterans at the heart of the order. Justin Morneau pulled into a tie for sixth place in the American League with four RBI on Monday night, but his high ranking has more to do with opportunity than effectiveness. Morneau has started 35 of the Twins’ 36 games – 32 of them in the cleanup spot – and has routinely batted behind Joe Mauer (.426 OBP) and Josh Willingham (.377 OBP). Entering play Wednesday, Morneau had batted with more runners on base than any player in the majors save for Prince Fielder, and while he’s done well in those situations, batting .326 with runners in scoring position (including 7-for-8 with the bases loaded), you also get the sense based on his track record that he’s been leaving plenty on the table. Morneau has uncharacteristically been limited to two home runs this season, including just one with runners on base. Although he appears healthy, he is slugging .424, which is 65 points below his career mark. Morneau is on pace for nearly 130 RBI this season even with a mere semblance of his usual power. Imagine what that number could look like if he were flashing more pop. We may actually be starting to see that now, as the 32-year-old has been hitting the ball with increasing authority recently, having tallied five doubles (and not coincidentally 10 RBI) in his past seven games. The man hitting in front of Morneau is another interesting case. After driving in 110 runs last year, Willingham is on pace for 72 this year. Like with Morneau, this can be attributed to decreased power – Willingham hasn’t homered in May and is well off last year’s pace despite a team-leading total of five – but the bigger culprit is a simple lack of hitting. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4072[/ATTACH] It’s not that Willingham has been an offensive liability; he’s contributing to Morneau’s opportunities by getting on base at a .377 clip, thanks to a career-high walk rate. But walks don’t drive in runs and the slugging outfielder is batting just .204. In 39 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, he has collected only six hits. The Twins are relying on these two boppers to provide the brunt of the power in their lineup and produce runs. Morneau is trending up in that department and Willingham, despite his recent slump, has proven more than capable. If the heart of the lineup can start beating more steadily, this offense should be able to keep its rhythm.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4048[/ATTACH]Kyle Gibson is anxious to finally reach the big leagues, and he's currently making a strong case in Triple-A with a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through seven starts. His most recent outing was his most impressive: a complete game shutout with eight strikeouts, two walks and four hits. Gibson is on an innings limit this year and has already logged 40 innings in Rochester, increasing the urgency to call him up soon so he can spend time adjusting to the majors, thus preparing himself for a full, successful season in 2014. But space is limited in the Twins' rotation and Gibson is not the only one vying for a spot. Unlike Gibson, Cole De Vries was actually in line to land in the major-league rotation this spring before suffering a forearm injury that set him back about a month. De Vries made his second rehab start in New Britain on Friday night, allowing two runs over five innings and prompting Rob Antony to say De Vries is "getting close." Then there's Samuel Deduno. After starring in the World Baseball Classic, he also had his chance to make the Twins sabotaged by injury. He's now back and pitching in Rochester, where he has a 0.87 ERA through two starts. Deduno's control has been characteristically bad, as he's issued eight walks (against nine strikeouts) in his 10 1/3 innings of work, but he's shown the ability to succeed in spite of the walks before, and the Twins owe him a look based on the results he's gotten. All three of these hurlers deserve a chance with the Twins, who rank 26th in the majors with a 5.04 starting pitchers' ERA, and that's not even mentioning prospects Alex Meyer and Trevor May, who are excelling in Double-A. But where will the club find room? Scott Diamond and Kevin Correia are entrenched. Mike Pelfrey seems safe after showing signs of improvement in his past few starts. Vance Worley might be getting into dangerous territory as his bad results -- and bad luck -- have persisted through eight starts. Pedro Hernandez is probably one more dud away from getting bumped, so it's unsurprising that the left-hander declined to go on the bereavement list after the death of his cousin last week. His career is on the line right now. The presence of legitimate options in the minors creates a dynamic that has been lacking in Minnesota's rotation over the past couple years. Pitchers are feeling pressure to get the job done because there are actually players ready to take their jobs, for good. Turnover in this unit will be looked at mostly as a positive. We've grown so accustomed to injuries and performance issues leaving the starting corps decimated; when was the last time that finding enough room for all their starters was a challenge for the Twins?

Like a car engine struggling on an icy day, the Twins' lineup had a tough time revving up during the chilly month of April. Ambitious thoughts about the potential for an offensive core powered by numerous potent bats went wayward as the runs trickled in at a disappointing pace. The Twins finished the season's first month ranking near the bottom of the league in OPS and runs scored. This, at least for me, was somewhat jarring, because from my standpoint they didn't appear to be overmatched. Hitters throughout the lineup were taking good at-bats, several key players were excelling, and most importantly everyone was healthy. But overall the offensive unit just wasn't clicking. Here in May, the tides seem to be turning. And that transformation has taken place in the most unlikely of spots. Entering this week's four-game series against the Twins, the Red Sox were 20-11, including 11-5 at Fenway Park. In their own yard, Boston had held opponents to an average of 3.8 runs per game. With the league's hottest rotation leading the way, the Sox had jumped out to an early lead in the rugged American League East. The Twins hardly looked intimidated. In the opener, they jumped on April's AL Pitcher of the Month, Clay Buchholz, hanging four runs on him in six innings to mark the first time this year the right-hander has allowed more than two runs in a start or completed fewer than seven frames. After ultimately coming up short in that game, the Twins won the next three for an impressive series victory. In the four-game set, the offense scored a total of 31 runs. Suddenly, the team's numbers look quite a bit more respectable. The Twins now sit seventh in the AL in runs per game, with a 4.58 mark that places them above the league average. The team OPS has cracked the .700 mark at .702, about 20 points higher than when they opened the series. Will this upward trend continue? It's hard to see why not. Joe Mauer continues to look like Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham is doing his thing and Trevor Plouffe is beginning to drive in runs at a steadier pace. Justin Morneau is the remaining wild card in the middle of the lineup, but he's one player who appears poised to turn the corner and start crushing it at any time. Elsewhere, we're seeing increasing signs of life. Pedro Florimon has been surprisingly competent at the plate and hasn't slowed down yet. Ryan Doumit has broken out of his early-season slump and is hitting .308/.345/.577 in May. Oswaldo Arcia, who turned 22 on Thursday, is transforming into an impact hitter before our eyes. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4038[/ATTACH] Sure, there are still underperformers – Aaron Hicks hasn't had a multi-hit game, Chris Parmelee holds a .611 OPS and Brian Dozier hasn't shown much consistency at the plate – but in each case these are young, developing players with seemingly nowhere to go but up. My biggest reason for excitement regarding this season was that the Twins figured to be, if not competitive, at least quite entertaining to watch. So far, they have been both, even with the offense largely falling short of its potential. Are they now taking steps toward meeting that potential? Too soon to say, but the lineup made a resounding statement in Boston this week and now returns to Target Field for a nine-game homestand.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4015[/ATTACH]You've probably heard the story by now. On the very day that Vance Worley was told by Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. that he'd been traded from the Phillies to the Minnesota Twins, the 25-year-old pitcher had been planning to pick up an engagement ring from the jeweler so that he could propose to his girlfriend. Worley, who had just signed a lease for a new house in South Jersey nearby Philly, suddenly had his entire life uprooted. He would be leaving the only organization he'd ever known and heading to the American League Central, where instead of pitchers the opposing lineups are rounded out by powerful designated hitters like Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Billy Butler and Mark Reynolds. Tough break for a control pitcher with fringy stuff. And as it turns out, Worley's misfortune was just beginning. Maybe while he was packing his belongings for the move to the Midwest, he dropped a mirror and shattered it. Maybe he walked under a ladder, or a black cat crossed his path. Whatever the reason, the right-hander has been snakebitten thus far for the Twins, experiencing tumult unlike anything he's seen in his career. When he entered the fold, Worley instantly became the Twins' most accomplished starting pitcher, as reflected by his assignment to start on Opening Day. In parts of three seasons with the Phillies, he had compiled an 18-13 record and 3.50 ERA, and in 2011 he finished third for Rookie of the Year. Yet the early results in Minnesota have been roundly disappointing. Through seven starts, Worley is 0-4 with a 6.95 ERA. In 33 2/3 innings, he has given up a league-leading 55 hits, contributing to a ghastly 1.90 WHIP. After each poor start, Worley sounds like a guy who's more flabbergasted than frustrated. "The ball was coming out, doing what I wanted it do," he said after coughing up six runs in Detroit last week. "They just came out swinging." While it might be easy to see a lack of accountability in the pitcher's remarks, it's also not hard to see some truth. He really is doing many of the same things that made him a successful pitcher in Philly. His velocity is the same, he's throwing strikes and his pitches are moving. He is by all accounts healthy and feeling good. His ground ball rate, at 50.4 percent, is actually far higher than his norm. Still the hits keep on coming. Worley has been saddled with a batting average on balls in play of .407, which is the highest in the major leagues and 90 points above his previous career mark. That is a sign of dreadful luck. Sure, it doesn't help that the Twins aren't an especially great defensive club, and Worley has given up his fair share of hard hits, but nothing can explain such an exorbitant number. He's getting killed by bleeders and bloopers. In addition, Worley's HR/FB rate of 13.9 percent is the highest on the Twins staff and the highest of his career. He's stranding only 61.4 percent of his ample base runners – the lowest mark of his career and the lowest of any Twins' starter save for Mike Pelfrey. Certainly Worley needs to make some adjustments. Whether it's scouting-related or the nature of AL lineups, hitters have been more aggressive against him this year and he needs to find a way to leverage that rather than letting it beat him. But he hasn't pitched anywhere near as badly as his numbers suggest, and over time if he keeps executing his game plan he is going to get better results. There's simply no way this run of poor luck can sustain, unless he incurred some type of voodoo curse over the offseason. That isn't to say Worley is going to turn into a legitimate No. 1 starter any time soon, or even that he'll be able to match his NL success. His 12.7 percent K-rate leaves much to be desired and falls well short of his 20 percent mark in the Senior Circuit. Nevertheless, I think his 4.18 xFIP is a much better indicator of what we can expect from him going forward than his current bloated ERA.

* Last week, I wrote that Mike Pelfrey's struggles had a reached a point where he should be removed from the rotation until he demonstrates legitimate signs of progress. In his next start, which came Sunday afternoon in Cleveland, that progress was plenty evident. Go figure. Sure enough, Pelfrey delivered his best start of the season by far, with six innings of one-run ball. His fastball flashed a couple ticks higher on the gun than we ever saw in April, and the added velocity (along with noticeably improved command) paid clear dividends. For the first time this year, hitters seemed to struggle at times to catch up to his heater, increasing the effectiveness of his off-speed offerings. After striking out only seven hitters in his first five starts for an MLB-worst 6.5 percent K-rate, Pelfrey notched seven strikeouts Sunday, with a few coming at crucial moments. He induced a season-high 13 swings and misses. Whether it's the warmer weather, or the kinks being worked out after a month's work, or some combination, Pelfrey looked like a different guy on Sunday. And it was an opportune time for it, because on the same day, three hurlers with eyes on his job – Samuel Deduno, Alex Meyer and Cole De Vries – were all pitching for minor-league affiliates. * Trevor Plouffe displayed again in Sunday's game why he might be the team's most intriguing yet frustrating player. His two-run homer in the second gave the Twins an early lead that stuck. The dinger was Plouffe's fourth this season, placing him second on the team behind Josh Willingham. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3996[/ATTACH] But in the field, there was yet another lapse. In the fourth inning Asdrubal Cabrera attempted to steal third base, and Joe Mauer's throw had him beat handily. Plouffe went down to apply the tag, but rather than holding his glove down he made a quick swipe maneuver. Cabrera took advantage, stopping short with one hand and reaching around Plouffe with his other arm to touch the base safely. It's these kinds of little things that drive Ron Gardenhire crazy. Plouffe has shown again and again that he's capable of making all the plays at third, but his flashiness and inattention to details will do him no favors with a manager who lives and breaths fundamentals. We've already seen Plouffe benched multiple times this season for offenses of a similar nature. Gardy's patience appears to be running thin. But at the same time, the Twins can't afford to take the slugger's potent bat out of the lineup. The manager will just have to find it within himself to live through the miscues, because sliding Plouffe to the outfield no longer looks like a feasible option. * With Sunday's win, the Twins were able to fend off the brooms in Cleveland, marking the third straight series in which they fell behind 0-2 and rebounded to avoid a sweep. To date, the Twins have only come away winless in one series – an early-April set in Kansas City. By this point last year, they'd already been swept four times. Granted, winning one game per series is hardly ideal if it becomes an ongoing trend, but the Twins are showing some resilience, and in the process they're avoiding extended losing streaks.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3951[/ATTACH]In a season where he's largely stayed in the good graces of the fan base, Ron Gardenhire finally awakened the critics on Monday night. With the Twins leading Detroit 3-1 and angling for a big win to kick off their treacherous road trip, Gardenhire sent Mike Pelfrey out to pitch the sixth inning despite the fact that the starter had pretty clearly been surviving on smoke and mirrors all night. Pelfrey had not struck out a single hitter and, in the previous inning, had only managed to work around a single and triple by inducing a hard-hit ground ball double play. Pelfrey took the mound in the sixth and imploded against the middle of the Detroit lineup, allowing an infield single, a walk and then a go-ahead three-run homer to Prince Fielder. Finally the bullpen took over and did its thing, holding the Tigers scoreless the rest of the way, but the damage was done and the Twins sustained one of their toughest losses of the season. Pelfrey's meltdown seemed all too inevitable given the way he's pitched this year. He has failed to complete six innings in any of his five starts, he is allowing nearly two base runners per inning on average with opponents hitting .356 against him, and he has a 7.66 ERA. Pelfrey was never a huge strikeout guy, but he has managed to fan only seven of the 108 batters he has faced this season, giving him the lowest rate in the majors by a fairly wide margin. In light of those numbers, it strikes me that the issue isn't Gardenhire crossing his fingers and trying to squeeze another inning out of the right-hander. The issue is that Pelfrey is on the big-league roster to begin with. When the veteran returned to the mound back on April 4th, just 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery, I marveled at the accomplishment, even if he didn't look very good. It was a great story. It still is a great story; after rocketing through his recovery, Pelfrey has taken the mound every five days, battling and throwing strikes. He claims to feel fine and his velocity is back close to where it was prior to surgery. Those are real positives. But those positives don't mask the fact that Pelfrey clearly does not have what it takes to consistently retire major-league hitters right now. He can't throw past anybody and opponents are putting the ball in the air against him more at an unprecedented rate. Many of his outs are hard-hit liners. Parker pointed out last week the numerous issues present in the righty's game. Surely the Twins are aware of these issues, and they can't be thrilled with the signs of progression on Monday night even if Pelfrey managed to dance through five innings before falling apart. I have faith that Pelf will improve and sharpen up the lacking aspects of his game over time as he moves further away from the surgery (which took place one year ago today, officially), but letting that process play out in the majors, where it's costing the team games, is not acceptable. With Liam Hendriks and Kyle Gibson waiting for a chance in Triple-A while Samuel Deduno inches closer to returning from a groin injury, the Twins have options available that make a lot more sense at the moment, whether the goal is to win now or cultivate for the future. A demotion to Triple-A until Pelfrey proves ready is a seemingly obvious baseball decision. The fact that he's a good story (and, by all accounts, a good guy) shouldn't cloud that.