Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3531[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Trevor Plouffe 2012 Stats: .235/.301/.455, 24 HR, 55 RBI, 56 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll Identifying a solution at the hot corner has turned into a game of hot potato for the Twins. Since Corey Koskie’s departure, the list of players who have had a hand on the gig is lengthy: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Danny Valencia and more. Unfortunately, in each case, the assignment has proven too hot to handle. Trevor Plouffe is the latest in this long line of contenders and represents the best hope for a long-term solution in the group. His bat, slow to develop in the early minors, has game has elevated dramatically over the past three years. As a 26-year-old on the rise and entering his prime, Plouffe is an intriguing commodity with offensive upside left in the tank even after erupting for 24 homers last year. Of course, hitting isn’t the make-or-break factor for Plouffe at this point. He needs to prove to the Twins that he can consistently make all the plays at third and remain in the infield after fizzling out at shortstop with a poor showing in 2011. Plouffe has all the tools to be an above-average third baseman, with a strong arm and good lateral reflexes, but his mechanics and his focus have sometimes come into question. Without a doubt, his fielding will be under heavy scrutiny from the coaching staff. To his benefit, Plouffe has now had an entire offseason to concentrate on preparing for one specific position, whereas the last few years have seen him slide all over the diamond. Hopefully this, along with the security of a guaranteed regular job, will help him take the steps needed to satisfy the defensive expectations that come along with manning third. Plouffe has already met the offensive expectations, even in a 2012 season that had its ups and downs. He started the year as a part-time infielder, scuffling at the plate with sporadic playing time, but eventually Danny Valencia’s departure created an opening at third and Plouffe settled in. He went on an insane midseason tear, piling up 18 homers in 39 games before a thumb injury cut down his playing time and production in the second half. Plouffe’s power surge was abrupt, but the concentrated distribution of his home runs does not diminish the accomplishment of launching 24 of them in 119 games as a 25-year-old with little major-league experience. And while it may have seemed this way to some, Plouffe’s long-ball proclivity didn’t come out of nowhere. Between Triple-A and the majors, he had gone deep 17 times in 2010 and 23 times in 2011. As he has matured and grown and adjusted, he has developed into a legitimate power hitter. As long as he can stay off the trainer's table, there is no reason to expect that to change this year. Clearly, Plouffe needs to put his health issues behind him. The thumb problem nagged him throughout the final months last year and he has already dealt with a recurring calf injury this spring. But if he can get past these afflictions, I have high hopes. My expectation is that he will hit at least 25 home runs, perhaps 30 or more, and that as he gets more comfortable at third base his skills – which enabled him to stick at shortstop throughout the minors – will start to shine through and he’ll become a quality defender there. Hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced, because if Plouffe doesn’t work out there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on. If he does, the middle of this lineup could be truly formidable.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3521[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Brian Dozier 2012 Stats: .234/.271/.332, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 33 R Potential Backups: Jamie Carroll, Eduardo Escobar From the outside, nothing about Brian Dozier’s career path suggested stardom was in the cards. In fact, there was little to suggest that he possessed the capability of turning into an MLB regular. A Southern boy out of Mississippi drafted in the eighth round, Dozier debuted in 2009 with good numbers as a college draftee competing against more inexperienced players in rookie ball. He followed that up with an unimpressive .700 OPS in his first turn at full-season ball, looking the profile of a future utility guy, at best. Over those first couple years, Dozier performed well enough to move up the ladder but not well enough to catch the eyes of scouts or prospect analysts (save for maybe our guy Seth). Then, in 2011, he experienced a breakout. Between Class-A Ft. Myers and Class-AA New Britain, the shortstop batted .320/.399/.491 with 54 extra-base hits while holding his own defensively. In isolation those numbers were excellent; with his age and experience level taken into account, less so. Still, for the first time he had exhibited the potential to become a legitimate major-league asset. Shortstops that can get on base and flash some pop are valuable, especially in this organization. It was around this time that the Twins’ front office – or, at least, certain members of it – became enamored with Dozier. We started to see quotes from organizational personnel touting his abilities, and fawning media portrayals from scribes being fed by team sources. After his 2011 season, it became clear that Dozier was firmly entrenched in the team’s plans, almost regardless of his performance. Last year in spring training there were reports of internal debates over whether or not the infielder, who had played only 78 games above Single-A, should open the season on the big-league roster. Ultimately, he was optioned to Triple-A, but it wasn’t long before he got the call despite mediocre numbers in Rochester. Dozier joined the Twins in early May and played in the majors for about three month. He looked over-matched, struggling to put together good at-bats and seemingly taking the bad ones out onto the field with him. With both sides of his game failing to show the improvement they’d hoped to see, the Twins knocked him back down to Triple-A in August, where he played poorly over the remainder of the campaign and failed to earn even a September call-up. Despite all that, Dozier has been hailed as essentially a lock to make the starting lineup from the outset this spring, this time at second base. Coaches in camp have remarked that he looks like a different player now. He has made several nice plays at second and although he's batting just .244 in exhibition play, a 5-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 45 plate appearances indicates that his plate approach has been sound. Carrying those strides into the games that count will be Dozier's challenge. All the club needs is for him to be steady with the mitt and adequate at the dish. Anything more would be a great bonus -- especially if he can establish himself as a legitimate No. 2 hitter -- but shouldn't be expected based on his performance up to this point. In 132 contests between Triple-A and the majors, he has batted .233 and struck out in 17 percent of his plate appearances. Despite all the verbal accolades he receives, Dozier has much to prove on the field. If he can't cut it, the Twins do have the luxury of a fairly reliable fallback plan. Jamey Carroll is in the second and final year of a contract he signed last offseason, and although he's hardly an offensive weapon (he slugged .317 last year) he's a steady player who makes the plays in the field and gets himself on base. Of course, he's also 39, so his ability to hold up for a full season could be in question. That's probably part of the reason he hasn't been viewed as a credible contender to start, along with the fact that feeding him at-bats does little for the club's rebuilding process. Looking down the farm for prospective second basemen, there's no one noteworthy in the pipeline until you reach Eddie Rosario, who hasn't played above Low-A and is no lock to stick in the infield. As such, the Twins are depending on Dozier to become a sturdy bridge, so it's hardly surprising that he's being handed the reigns, nor will it be surprising if he's given a pretty long leash.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3509[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Justin Morneau 2012 Stats: .267/.333/.440, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 63 R Potential Backups: Chris Parmelee, Joe Mauer, Jeff Clement It’s been so long since we’ve seen Justin Morneau at his best, it’s easy to forget what “his best” even looked like. In the two-and-a-half seasons since his fateful concussion in Toronto, Morneau has shown only the occasion glimpse of elite hitting ability. Beyond the lingering effects of the head injury, which dragged on for well over a year and often prevented him from being able to work out at full capacity, Morneau has dealt with a barrage of dings, nicks and strains to nearly every other part of his body. It's like his voodoo doll fell in a blender. For such a sturdily built athlete, the first baseman has had a shockingly difficult time staying healthy. He was definition of durability in 2008, when he played in all 163 of Minnesota’s games, but since then he’s missed at least 27 games every season. Just when it seems like he’s gotten past another major ailment, something else invariably pops up to take a treacherous toll on his performance or sideline him. That’s why it’s understandable if you're dubious of Morneau right now, despite the fact that he is – by all accounts – as healthy as he’s been in years, and absolutely crushing the ball this spring. One year ago, Morneau was openly pondering the idea of retirement, feeling as though his nagging head and wrist issues may never disappear. Now, he's fresh off a brief but dominant stint with Canada in the World Baseball Classic and his decision to participate in the tourney was significant. Entering the final leg of his current contract, this is a hugely important season for Morneau's future; his health and production over the course of the coming campaign will dictate whether he lands a one-year make good or a sizable multi-year deal afterward. That he was willing to forgo the controlled pace in Ft. Myers and compete in a pressure-packed preseason environment signals a high level of confidence in the state of his 31-year-old body. Everything he’s done on the field over the past month has helped to legitimize that confidence. In a handful of games played with the Twins, Morneau was locked in, smashing hard liners to all fields and knocking in runs. In 20 at-bats, he tallied three doubles, a homer and eight RBI, bringing back memories of his heyday from 2006 through 2009 when his total of 470 RBI ranked him fourth in baseball, behind only Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. While batting cleanup for the Canadians in the WBC, he continued to rake, collecting seven hits (three doubles) in 11 at-bats for a cool .636 batting average. Put all the pieces together, and you've got a healthy, confident former MVP who's playing for a contract. If the guy takes you by surprise this year, you haven't been paying attention. Of course, to come full circle, it would not be a surprise if health again became a problem for the battered slugger. Nor would it be a surprise if he were traded at some point during the summer. Therefore, depth here is important. Chris Parmelee, who will open the season in the outfield, looms as the heir apparent, if all goes to plan. He's in line to replace the veteran at first next year and circumstances could hasten that process, although Parmelee will need to hit. Jeff Clement, the former premier prospect turned 29-year-old flameout, could eventually become an option. Chris Colabello, a fellow minor-leaguer journeyman who's had a pretty nice WBC himself, is a long-shot contender. But, as is usually the case, Minnesota's system is short on outstanding first base prospects. They're counting on a big year from Morneau, who could become an appealing trade chip while also helping keep the Twins relevant. But, as the future of the position is concerned, they're counting on a big year from Parmelee even more.

Likely Starter: Joe Mauer 2012 Stats: .319/.444/.587, 10 HR, 85 RBI, 81 R [ATTACH=CONFIG]3473[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann Joe Mauer wasn't officially honored as the American League's Comeback Player of the Year last season, losing out to Fernando Rodney, but he had an awfully good case. His 2011 campaign was as tumultuous as that of any player in baseball, seeing him descend from idol to villain in the eyes of a fan base frustrated by vague injuries, disappointing on-field performance and lacking accountability. Magnifying all these issues were the backdrops of a disastrous season for the club and a massive contract that was just getting underway. In 2012, Mauer put it all behind him. Some worried that the seeds of trouble sprouting in that '11 season would blossom into long-term limitations but last year it was like none of that stuff had ever happened. Mauer looked like his old self, spraying line drives all over the field and competing for a batting title down to the final days of the season. Rejuvenated, he posted the third-highest home run total of his career. As if to prove a point about the condition of his legs, he attempted 12 stolen bases -- as many as the previous four years combined -- and set a career high for games played with 147. The one thing that changed, relative to past successful seasons, was a dramatic reduction in his workload at catcher. Behind the plate for 83 percent of his starts in 2010, Mauer saw that number drop to 50 percent as his playing time at DH and first base shot up. This approach made sense for two principal reasons: first, caution with his battered legs was clearly warranted; second, moving Mauer out from behind the plate didn’t hurt the lineup the way it has in the past due to the presence of an offensive asset as the backup. Ryan Doumit looked like a great fit when the Twins signed him to a one-year deal prior to the 2012 season, and he worked out so well that the club extended his contract for two years in the middle of the summer. He’ll be back to help ease Mauer’s workload, while both players can periodically fill in elsewhere. With those two locked in, the question is whether a third backstop will accompany them on the roster. That has largely been assumed, since Drew Butera has held down a spot three years running and re-signed for $700,000 during the offseason, but Ron Gardenhire has hinted that he’s ready to snap his long-standing trend and carry two catchers in favor of a more potent bench. Without Butera weighing the position down, the Twins could realistically boast the best offensive output of any team in the league at catcher, especially if the prime-aged Mauer takes another step forward with 2011 shrinking in the rearview mirror.

I returned to Minnesota on Sunday night after a six-day excursion to southern Florida that featured plenty of baseball, beaches and beer. The vacation was perfect medicine after a long, cold winter here in the northland. If you haven't journeyed to Ft. Myers in March before, I can't recommend it highly enough. Beyond the incredible weather and tasty eats in the area, the Twins do a great job of providing fans with a stellar experience at Lee County Sports Complex, whether you're taking in a Grapefruit League contest or simply wandering around the side fields watching major-leaguers and minor-leaguers practice (which is totally free on non-game days). There's something for everyone, whether your bag is collecting autographs, chatting with players and coaches (who are largely friendly and accessible), or simply standing around and watching really talented baseball players do their thing under the sun. Today I thought I would take one last look back at the week that was with some notable highlights and regrets from the trip: HIGHLIGHTS * Watching Aaron Hicks hit a bomb over the right-field fence in his first at-bat in Wednesday's game. Considering how long I've been on this kid (and how heavily I praised him in my TD Top Prospect writeup), that was pretty sweet. * Cheering for middling prospect Danny Ortiz, who entered in the final innings of one game we attended and seemed pleasantly shocked when we called out his name from our seats behind the plate (considering he didn't even have a name on the back of his No. 95 jersey). He proceeded to lace a triple to right-center. I take full credit for the hit and all future success. * Meeting and chatting with MLB.com's prospect guru Jonathan Mayo, who was roaming the minor-league fields on Thursday. Nice guy. * Checking out jetBlue Park, the new spring training home of the Red Sox, where the Twins played on Friday night. Nicknamed "Fenway South," the stadium – which opened last year – was very impressive and had a lot of neat features intended to imitate the legendary ballpark in Boston. Makes me excited to see how Hammond Stadium will look after the Twins implement $40 million in planned renovations for next year. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3446[/ATTACH] * Seeing Doug Mientkiewicz and Terry Steinbach back in Twins uniforms. As much as some folks complain about this organization's tendency to "keep it in the family," it is fun to have these guys back around. Both Mientkiewicz and Steinbach are reputed for owning very high baseball IQs. * Inhaling some scrumptious Cuban food with the hilarious Jake Nyberg and MLB.com beat guy Rhett Bollinger. They both gave Fernandez the Bull a thumbs up. Take that Seth! * Spending plenty of time with my pal Topper Anton, who was a terrific host and cohort during my stay. Now we just need to get him blogging again. REGRETS * Neglected to slather my pale white skin in sunscreen before my first day spent out at the spring training complex. The back of my neck paid the price, turning about as red as the stitches on a baseball. * Didn't get a chance to talk to minor-leaguer and Twins Daily blogger A.J. Pettersen, who was busy with drills during the times I was around him. I was summarily reprimanded. Sorry A.J.! * Failed to get Star Trib beat writer Phil Miller drunk, despite multiple attempts. * Missed out on Hicks' three-homer outburst in Clearwater Thursday, as I was on the other end of the split-squad series in Ft. Myers. I did get to see Kevin Correia get knocked all over the place instead, so that was cool. * Did not challenge any of these guys to a home run hitting contest: [ATTACH=CONFIG]3449[/ATTACH] I coulda taken 'em. * Made a point of finding places to watch the Gophers basketball team lose against a shabby opponent… twice. That squad is just an epic disappointment. * Didn't capitalize on an opportunity to tell Terry Ryan about my nasty slider despite the fact that he was sitting four rows behind me at Wednesday's game. All I need is a chance!

The headliner on Thursday was Aaron Hicks, who blasted three homers in a game against the Phillies in Clearwater. I didn't make the three-hour trip, opting to stay back in Ft. Myers for the home half of the split-squad set, and thus missed out on my favorite prospect's banner day. I can hardly complain. While hanging around the Lee County Sports Complex, I had the opportunity to check out plenty of intriguing prospects, and while the home game against Boston wasn't anywhere near as thrilling as The Hicks Show there were plenty of noteworthy sights. Here's a run-down: [ATTACH=CONFIG]3435[/ATTACH] * I've had my doubts about Joe Benson and he did nothing to alleviate them Thursday, striking out four times against the Red Sox. He also let a routine fly ball drop in center after losing it in the sun, costing the team a run. Suffice to say that he's lagging behind in the center field competition. * I expect big things this year from Trevor Plouffe, who seems to be maturing as a hitter before our eyes. He tallied a pair of singles against the Red Sox, both line drives to right-center field over the second baseman's head. We know Plouffe can turn on a pitch and plant it in the left field seats, but if he continues to show a propensity for going the other way when the offering dictates, he'll have a chance to become a more complete hitter and take his offensive game to the next level. He also had a fine play defensively at third, barehanding a slow roller up the line and converting, although his throw pulled Jeff Clement off the bag at first and forced him to swipe the runner as he passed. * Kevin Correia started for the Twins against Boston, and he did not pitch well. He lasted only 2 1/3 innings before reaching his pitch limit, and seemed to struggle locating his off speed stuff. If he threw a breaking ball for a strike at any point, I didn't see it. In the outing, he allowed six hits and a walk, and overthrew first base on a pick-off attempt. His fastball registered in the upper 80s. The Twins' pitching staff in general had a bad day, coughing up 12 runs on 16 hits in a contest that dragged at times. I did enjoy the opportunity to see prospects Trevor May and B.J. Hermsen, who entered later in the game, but neither blew me away. * On Wednesday, when I made my first trip down to the park, minor-league players were going through their physical exams and there wasn't a whole lot of action on the side fields. Thursday was another story, as the kids were out in full force, going through drills and working with instructors. I spent a few hours roaming the minor-league fields, spectating as young players went through such exciting tasks as completing PFP drills, playing catch and running sprints. Obviously one can't take a whole lot away from these activities, but it was good to see some of the organization's more noteworthy prospects in the flesh, some for the first time. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3436[/ATTACH]Miguel Sano has grown quite a bit since the last time I saw him two years ago. He's very thick in the lower half, with powerful thighs that undoubtedly help him generate torque. As his measurements would suggest, his build looks quite similar to Miguel Cabrera. However, Sano's prodigious frame paled in comparison to fellow bopper Kennys Vargas, who is an inch or two taller and has a sizable weight advantage on the Twins' top prospect. Vargas slugged .610 in Beloit last year. * I've gotta say, as a long-time Twins fan it was pretty fun watching Doug Mientkiewicz hit grounders to Sano at third base. Quite the "past and future" dynamic in play there. Mechanically, Sano looked pretty smooth leaning down to corral the ball and unleashing wicked throws with his outstanding arm. But I continue to believe that his size gives him very little chance of sticking at the hot corner, especially if he keeps growing. * Speaking of Mientkiewicz, it was awesome to see him back in a Twins uniform. He returns to the Twins organization this year as manager of the Ft. Myers Miracle, and he was all over the place on the minor-league fields, barking instructions and cracking jokes. You can tell he's a popular figure among Twins fans by the way people gravitated to him. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3437[/ATTACH] * While watching some outfield prospects haul in fungoes from a machine on one field, I saw Max Kepler turn on the wheels to chase down a distant fly ball and came away very impressed by the way he runs. He's a big kid but he moves gracefully, gliding around the outfield grass with great speed. I guess that's how it goes when both of your parents are renowned ballet dancers. * I didn't see Byron Buxton do much, other than running a few sprints and playing some catch, but he's certainly a tremendous athlete as advertised. He also struck me as being very good-natured, a sentiment that was echoed by several observers I chatted with. * One guy who has really filled out since the last time I saw him is Niko Goodrum, a shortstop prospect with a reputable tool set. I remembered him being a particularly skinny and lanky ballplayer but he's really grown into an imposing figure. Whether that will affect his ability to remain at short remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be surprised if he posts some impressive power numbers in Cedar Rapids this season. With his athleticism, he's got a chance to be special if he can put it all together. * That's all for today. I'll be attending one last game on Friday night at JetBlue Stadium, the newly furnished spring training home of the Red Sox, then I'll be returning to Minnesota on Sunday. Boo. I'll report back with some finals thoughts after the weekend, and then it will be time to get my annual Position Analysis series underway. Cheers!

After watching my hometown get blanketed with several inches of snow on Monday and Tuesday, I finally said, "Screw it, I need to get out of here." So I hopped on a plane and flew to Florida. OK, it wasn't quite that spontaneous, but I am down here in Ft. Myers, and making several trips to the ballpark this week, so I figured I would share some of my observations. On Wednesday, I had the chance to take in the tilt between the Twins and Puerto Rico's World Baseball Classic squad at Hammond Stadium, which ended in an 8-7 loss. Here are a few notes I thought I'd pass along: [ATTACH=CONFIG]3418[/ATTACH] * If you've been following this site or my writing, you may be aware that I'm a huge fan of Twins prospect Aaron Hicks. So naturally, he was one of the players I was most excited to see down here. Hicks was in the starting lineup on Wednesday, batting leadoff, and he did not disappoint. In his first at-bat, he took a couple pitches from Puerto Rico starter Giancarlo Alvarado befor[ATTACH=CONFIG]3420[/ATTACH]e drilling one over the right field fence for his second home run of the spring. He walked and singled in his next two plate appearances, finishing 2-for-2 on the day, and is now batting .375 in Grapefruit League action. Hicks is doing everything he needs to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster, but as Star Tribune beat writer Phil Miller pointed out when I was chatting with him outside the batting cages, rookies who are competing for a big-league job have a tendency to tighten up as Opening Day approaches. We'll have to see whether the Twins Daily No. 3 prospect can keep it up over the next few weeks. * Unfortunately, Hicks was the only player in the Twins lineup on this particular day who has a chance to actually make the starting lineup. You think Ron Gardenhire's getaway day lineups are bad? For this exhibition match-up, his No. 3 hitter was Mark Sobolewski and his cleanup man was Jeff Clement. Consequentially, there isn't too much to report about the performance of the offense, although they did manage to scrape together seven runs thanks in large part to bouts of wildness from the Puerto Rico pitching staff. * Beyond Hicks, two other players who appeared on our Top 10 prospects list were in action for the opposing team Wednesday. Eddie Rosario didn't start, but he replaced Irving Falu at second base early in the game. Right-hander J.O. Berrios came on in relief and pitched the third inning. Rosario didn't have a great game offensively. He flied out to the outfield twice, then singled against Alex Burnett in his third at-bat but was quickly picked off at first base. The 20-year-old did convert on his defensive chances, and turned a nice double play. Berrios looked great. His fastball clocked in the low 90s but showed plenty of life. He threw strikes and worked around a Hicks single to complete a shutout frame. He may be the most impressive pitcher on Puerto Rico's staff, and he's 18. * [ATTACH=CONFIG]3419[/ATTACH]Vance Worley was the Twins starter. He didn't look especially sharp in the first inning, and it probably didn't help that he had to face a lineup featuring Angel Pagan, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rios and Yadier Molina among its first five hitters. Fortunately, Worley settled in and eventually lasted into the fourth before reaching his pitch limit. He relied on a low-90s fastball and mixed in an effective slider, rarely missing bats but jamming several hitters. The right-hander is one of the few projected members of the Twins rotation with whom I have a good idea of what to expect. He's not going to blow people away but he has solid stuff and will throw strikes. As long as he can stay healthy, he'll be a quality mid-rotation arm. * Reporters in Ft. Myers had been talking about the struggles of the Twins bullpen early on, and that trend continued Wednesday. Jared Burton hit the first batter he faced with a pitch and then gave up a long home run to something called Pedro Valdes. Burnett looked terrible, yielding five hits and two walks while recording just four outs. In fact, the only Twins reliever who had a remotely effective outing was Anthony Slama. Go figure. * The Twins have a pair of split-squad games scheduled for Thursday, and I'll be in attendance for the match-up at Hammond against the Red Sox. Kevin Correia is slated to start, and several legitimate major-leaguers figure to be in the lineup this time, so I'm sure I'll have plenty more notes to share afterwards. Stay tuned.

The short answer? No. The long answer? Also no. Classic. Well done EJ.