Nick Nelson

If ever there was a clear culprit for a ruined season, it was the Minnesota Twins' starting pitching corps in 2012. While reasonably decent in the lineup and bullpen, the team stood no chance of competing thanks to an outrageously bad year from the rotation. Pinpointing exactly what went wrong within that unit is more complicated. When you're talking about a group that ranked last in the AL in ERA, hits allowed and opponent OPS, there are obviously a multitude of factors in play. But if you had to narrow the staff's troubles down to three principal issues, they'd probably be: 1) injuries, 2) lack of exceptional talent, and 3) heavy contact tendencies backed by a questionable defense.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Heading into the new campaign, it's hard to feel a whole lot better about any of those areas. The injury bug has already bit, with the planned Opening Day starter (Scott Diamond) on the shelf and the most buzzworthy rotation contender (Samuel Deduno) also sidelined. When it comes to talent available at the major-league level, it's not clear the Twins upgraded significantly in the offseason by swapping out Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Carl Pavano in exchange for Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley. And none of those new names are renowned for missing bats, a quality was sorely lacking in the 2012 season. Twins starters averaged 5.53 strikeouts per nine innings – the lowest figure for any MLB team's rotation since 2009. Considering that the Twins traded away arguably their two best defenders during the offseason, another endless barrage of balls in play doesn't bode especially well. The downside is harrowing, but this unit is not without its glimmers of upside and intriguing storylines. Let's take a quick look at the five pitchers who will likely comprise the rotation when the season kicks off next week, as well as the various hurlers who will be lined up to step in when certain members inevitably falter. [B]1. Vance Worley, RHP 2012 Stats: 133 IP, 6-9, 4.20 ERA, 107/47 K/BB, 1.51 WHIP[/B] [attachment=5748:2152.attach] Acquired from Philly in the Ben Revere trade, Worley goes from being a back-end arm living in the shadows of Halladay, Hamels and Lee to Opening Day starter for the Twins. He draws that assignment largely because of circumstance, but he is the club's best hope for a legitimate rotation-fronter. He's still only 25, and his 3.50 career ERA is impressive. However, that success has come in the National League and now he must adjust to the more relentless AL format, with designated boppers replacing pitchers in opposing lineups. This transition, along with a surgically repaired elbow that bogged him down in the latter part of the '12 season, could prevent him from achieving the same type of results. [B]2. Kevin Correia, RHP 2012 Stats: 171 IP, 12-11, 4.21 ERA, 89/46 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP[/B] If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say nothing at all. Moving on… [B]3. Mike Pelfrey, RHP 2012 Stats: 19.2 IP, 0-0, 2.29 ERA, 13/4 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP[/B] An imposing presence on the mound at 6'7" and 250 lbs, with velocity to match, Pelfrey had his ups and downs while playing for the Mets. A strong and resilient arm enabled him to make 31-plus starts in four straight seasons before his elbow gave out early last year, and now he'll test that arm to the max as he seeks to return to the mound in the opening week, which would give him the fastest Tommy John recovery for a starting pitcher, ever. What's more: most pitchers who have come back anywhere near this timeframe have done so late in a season, tossing a few innings and then resting up over the winter. Pelfrey is attempting to come back after 11 months and take on a full season's workload, which is basically unheard of. I'll be wishing him the best but expecting plenty of bumps early on, especially since it sounds like his velocity still isn't close to pre-surgery norms. [B]4. Liam Hendriks, RHP 2012 Stats: 85.1 IP, 1-8, 5.59 ERA, 50/26 K/BB, 1.55 WHIP[/B] In spite of his tremendous production in the minor leagues, Hendriks has looked out of place pitching in the majors, timidly going after hitters with a repertoire that simply hasn't been effective at the highest level. In 85 innings spread across 16 starts last year, the right-hander coughed up 106 hits, including 17 home runs. He pitched well enough this spring to justifiably earn a job but was far from dominant. His superb track record while rising through the Twins' system is deserving of a long look this year, particularly with the dearth of other quality options, but if his results are similar he may have a hard time finding such an opportunity. [B]5. Cole De Vries, RHP 2012 Stats: 87.2 IP, 5-5, 4.11 ERA, 58/18 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP[/B] De Vries is in the same boat as Hendriks in that he lacks outstanding stuff -- in fact, he has less velocity and his secondary pitches produce less bite, from my view -- but he managed to garner much better results in a similar sample size last year and the same was true this spring. De Vries carries a shiny 0.64 ERA and has been almost unhittable in Grapefruit League action, but it will take a lot more than that to prove that the 28-year-old longtime farmhand belongs in a big-league rotation. As a Minnesota native, a former Gopher and by all accounts a nice guy, I'm rooting for him. But I can't help feeling that his presence in the rotation is a major indictment of where this team is at as the season gets underway. ... That's how the rotation will shape up at the start of the season, and it's without question going to be worst group the league has to offer, on paper. The best hope for the Twins is that some of the pitchers listed below will replace weak links over the course of the summer, allowing this unit to get stronger as the season goes on. [B]Scott Diamond, LHP[/B]: He opens the season on the DL, since recovery from a minor offseason elbow surgery has dragged on longer than expected, but he's on pace to return in mid-April and will probably unseat the worse performer between Hendriks and De Vries. [B]Samuel Deduno, RHP[/B]: After an electric performance for Team Dominicana in the World Baseball Classic, Deduno was ready to jump into the rotation with a head full of steam. Unfortunately, a groin injury will delay his opportunity to transfer the preseason success to meaningful MLB games, but when he finally takes the mound for Minnesota he'll be doing so with the most confidence of his career. Deduno is one to watch. [B]Kyle Gibson, RHP[/B]: The Twins left the door open for Gibson to win a spot in the rotation, but some ugly bouts with command this spring confirmed that he's not quite ready yet. Chances are good that he will be after sharpening up for a month or two in Triple-A, and at that point he could immediately become the team's best starter. [B]P.J. Walters, RHP[/B]: Walters is always going to be interesting because he spins a dynamite breaking ball, but unfortunately the nasty hook comes coupled with a fastball that falls blatantly short of major-league quality. Still, if you need a spot starter in a pinch, he's not the worst guy to have on hand. He had some nice moments last year. [B]Rich Harden, RHP[/B]: He's worth mentioning here, because in a mix that lacks exciting upside he's the one guy who has been a top-flight MLB pitcher at one point in his career. He probably won't be an option until June at the earliest, but if Harden returns to the mound and is throwing well, he should have an easy path back to the majors. View full article

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3608[/ATTACH]Perhaps no group on the Twins suffered more as a result of the starting staff’s struggles last year than the bullpen. Success stories were overlooked, dominant relief outings were often wasted in losses and the unit as a whole was generally taxed and overworked. That’s too bad, because the significant strides made in this department sort of got lost in the shuffle. One year after ranking last in the American League in bullpen ERA (4.51) and WHIP (1.46), the Twins moved to the middle of the pack in both categories with marks of the 3.77 and 1.26. Granted, “middle of the pack” isn’t anything to brag about, but it’s still a substantial improvement over the wreckage of 2011. And those overall numbers were dinged heavily by 52 terrible innings from Jeff Gray, who was inexplicably kept around for most of the season. When you look at the core relievers who are returning to this year’s mix, the performances were almost uniformly stellar. Let’s take a look at the seven arms that will be at Ron Gardenhire’s disposal when things get underway on Monday… Closer: Glen Perkins, LHP 2012 Stats: 70.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 16 SV, 78/16 K/BB, 1.04 WHIP Perkins was one of the few bright spots in that dreadful 2011 bullpen, putting a forgettable career as a starter behind him to emerge as one of the league’s most dominant relievers. Last year he put to rest any notion that his breakout campaign was a fluke, backing up it up with an equally splendid effort and taking firm hold of the closer role by year’s end. Complementing a mid-90s fastball with a lethal slider that baffles righties as well as lefties, Perkins has proven that he’s got everything it takes to slam the door in the major leagues. Setup Man: Jared Burton, RHP 2012 Stats: 62 IP, 2.18 ERA, 5 SV, 55/16 K/BB, 0.92 WHIP Plucking relief arms from other organizations on minor-league deals has been a common practice for the Twins, and it’s one that typically hasn’t worked out too well lately (see: Jeff Gray, Matt Maloney, Dusty Hughes, Eric Hacker, etc.). While Burton technically falls into the same category, it was clear when the Twins signed him that he was from a different mold. Unlike many of the marginal arms brought in through this avenue, Burton’s question marks were health-based rather than talent-based. He had previously been a stand-out reliever for the Reds, but lingering shoulder issues had finally pushed him out of the picture in Cincy. The Twins smartly took a flier and it worked out brilliantly, as Burton regained his health and unleashed his splitter/changeup hybrid (aka the “splange”) on unsuspecting AL hitters to devastating effect. Burton’s numbers in Year One with the Twins were better than any he’d posted in the past, and seemed too good to be true. In fact, they probably were. He’s almost certain to regress this year, to some extent, so we’ll just have to hope that he stays healthy and the fall isn’t too hard. Lefty Specialist: Brian Duensing, LHP 2012 Stats: 109 IP, 5.12 ERA, 69/27 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP The stats listed above for Duensing are a bit misleading, because they’re heavily weighted by his ugly stint as a starter. Hopefully that won’t again be a factor for the southpaw, who has settled comfortably into a role as a situational weapon in the bullpen. To that end, he’s been fantastic. Even last year, when his overall numbers were bloated, Duensing posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP as a reliever. He’s been pulled out of his appropriate role too often in the past couple years, but when used properly he's among the best in the league at what he does. Valuable asset. Middle Reliever: Casey Fien, RHP 2012 Stats: 35 IP, 2.06 ERA, 32/9 K/BB, 0.97 WHIP Even more so than Burton, Fien’s tremendous results in his first year with the Twins don’t exactly seem sustainable. His lights-out performance over 35 appearances was not necessarily a total fluke, as he’s been a solid reliever in the minors for many years, but Fien was a 28-year-old who had previously totaled 14 innings in the majors. The Twins will likely be leaning on him as their No. 2 right-handed reliever, at least out of the gates, so heavy regression would hurt in a major way. Middle Reliever: Ryan Pressly, RHP 2012 Stats (A/AA): 103.2 IP, 5.38 ERA, 82/36 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP Selected from Boston in the Rule 5 draft, Pressly is a former starter who’s found new life as a hard-throwing reliever, and he'll now get his first chance to pitch in the majors. Reports from Ft. Myers have generally been very positive, with observers calling out his noticeable velocity and sharp breaking ball. But here’s the thing: his purportedly nasty stuff hasn’t translated to strikeouts. Not in Double-A last year, where he averaged 6.8 K/9, and not in Florida this spring, where he’s managed to whiff just six of 51 batters. Color me skeptical. Secondary Lefty: Tyler Robertson, LHP 2012 Stats: 25 IP, 5.40 ERA, 26/14 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP Much like with Duensing, there is more than meets the eye when looking at Robertson’s numbers from last year. A glance at the ugly ERA and high walk total would suggest that he was a complete mess in his first exposure to the MLB ranks, but the truth is that Robertson was quite effective when in his element, holding lefty hitters to a .190 batting average and .585 OPS while fanning one out of every three. Against righties he truly was a complete mess (twice as many walks as strikeouts), and that's been his M.O., so Gardenhire would be wise to exercise even more stringency with Robertson’s usage than Duensing’s. Long Reliever: Josh Roenicke, RHP 2012 Stats: 88.2 IP, 3.25 ERA, 54/43 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP A shiny ERA covers up some serious flaws exhibited by Roenicke last year. He was erratic, walking 43 and uncorking eight wild pitches in 88 innings, and he allowed too much contact. That's a recipe for trouble even when you throw hard, as Jeff Gray demonstrated last season. If the Twins are expecting Roenicke to walk the tightrope so effectively once again they are bound for disappointment. But my guess is that they're not so much concerned with his results as his workload. The guy was a horse in Colorado’s bullpen last year, making 63 appearances and frequently logging multiple innings. There’s value in a rubber arm like that, especially for a team that figures to weather several abbreviated starts. As long as Roenicke can merely hold his own (a la Anthony Swarzak, who may be gunning for his job when he returns from the DL) he’ll have a chance to stick.

If ever there was a clear culprit for a ruined season, it was the Twins' starting pitching corps in 2012. While reasonably decent in the lineup and bullpen, the team stood no chance of competing thanks to an outrageously bad year from the rotation. Pinpointing exactly what went wrong within that unit is more complicated. When you're talking about a group that ranked last in the AL in ERA, hits allowed and opponent OPS, there are obviously a multitude of factors in play. But if you had to narrow the staff's troubles down to three principal issues, they'd probably be: 1) injuries, 2) lack of exceptional talent, and 3) heavy contact tendencies backed by a questionable defense. Heading into the new campaign, it's hard to feel a whole lot better about any of those areas. The injury bug has already bit, with the planned Opening Day starter (Scott Diamond) on the shelf and the most buzzworthy rotation contender (Samuel Deduno) also sidelined. When it comes to talent available at the major-league level, it's not clear the Twins upgraded significantly in the offseason by swapping out Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Carl Pavano in exchange for Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley. And none of those new names are renowned for missing bats, a quality was sorely lacking in the 2012 season. Twins starters averaged 5.53 strikeouts per nine innings – the lowest figure for any MLB team's rotation since 2009. Considering that the Twins traded away arguably their two best defenders during the offseason, another endless barrage of balls in play doesn't bode especially well. The downside is harrowing, but this unit is not without its glimmers of upside and intriguing storylines. Let's take a quick look at the five pitchers who will likely comprise the rotation when the season kicks off next week, as well as the various hurlers who will be lined up to step in when certain members inevitably falter. 1. Vance Worley, RHP 2012 Stats: 133 IP, 6-9, 4.20 ERA, 107/47 K/BB, 1.51 WHIP [ATTACH=CONFIG]3592[/ATTACH] Acquired from Philly in the Ben Revere trade, Worley goes from being a back-end arm living in the shadows of Halladay, Hamels and Lee to Opening Day starter for the Twins. He draws that assignment largely because of circumstance, but he is the club's best hope for a legitimate rotation-fronter. He's still only 25, and his 3.50 career ERA is impressive. However, that success has come in the National League and now he must adjust to the more relentless AL format, with designated boppers replacing pitchers in opposing lineups. This transition, along with a surgically repaired elbow that bogged him down in the latter part of the '12 season, could prevent him from achieving the same type of results. 2. Kevin Correia, RHP 2012 Stats: 171 IP, 12-11, 4.21 ERA, 89/46 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say nothing at all. Moving on… 3. Mike Pelfrey, RHP 2012 Stats: 19.2 IP, 0-0, 2.29 ERA, 13/4 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP An imposing presence on the mound at 6'7" and 250 lbs, with velocity to match, Pelfrey had his ups and downs while playing for the Mets. A strong and resilient arm enabled him to make 31-plus starts in four straight seasons before his elbow gave out early last year, and now he'll test that arm to the max as he seeks to return to the mound in the opening week, which would give him the fastest Tommy John recovery for a starting pitcher, ever. What's more: most pitchers who have come back anywhere near this timeframe have done so late in a season, tossing a few innings and then resting up over the winter. Pelfrey is attempting to come back after 11 months and take on a full season's workload, which is basically unheard of. I'll be wishing him the best but expecting plenty of bumps early on, especially since it sounds like his velocity still isn't close to pre-surgery norms. 4. Liam Hendriks, RHP 2012 Stats: 85.1 IP, 1-8, 5.59 ERA, 50/26 K/BB, 1.55 WHIP In spite of his tremendous production in the minor leagues, Hendriks has looked out of place pitching in the majors, timidly going after hitters with a repertoire that simply hasn't been effective at the highest level. In 85 innings spread across 16 starts last year, the right-hander coughed up 106 hits, including 17 home runs. He pitched well enough this spring to justifiably earn a job but was far from dominant. His superb track record while rising through the Twins' system is deserving of a long look this year, particularly with the dearth of other quality options, but if his results are similar he may have a hard time finding such an opportunity. 5. Cole De Vries, RHP 2012 Stats: 87.2 IP, 5-5, 4.11 ERA, 58/18 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP De Vries is in the same boat as Hendriks in that he lacks outstanding stuff -- in fact, he has less velocity and his secondary pitches produce less bite, from my view -- but he managed to garner much better results in a similar sample size last year and the same was true this spring. De Vries carries a shiny 0.64 ERA and has been almost unhittable in Grapefruit League action, but it will take a lot more than that to prove that the 28-year-old longtime farmhand belongs in a big-league rotation. As a Minnesota native, a former Gopher and by all accounts a nice guy, I'm rooting for him. But I can't help feeling that his presence in the rotation is a major indictment of where this team is at as the season gets underway. ... That's how the rotation will shape up at the start of the season, and it's without question going to be worst group the league has to offer, on paper. The best hope for the Twins is that some of the pitchers listed below will replace weak links over the course of the summer, allowing this unit to get stronger as the season goes on. Scott Diamond, LHP: He opens the season on the DL, since recovery from a minor offseason elbow surgery has dragged on longer than expected, but he's on pace to return in mid-April and will probably unseat the worse performer between Hendriks and De Vries. Samuel Deduno, RHP: After an electric performance for Team Dominicana in the World Baseball Classic, Deduno was ready to jump into the rotation with a head full of steam. Unfortunately, a groin injury will delay his opportunity to transfer the preseason success to meaningful MLB games, but when he finally takes the mound for Minnesota he'll be doing so with the most confidence of his career. Deduno is one to watch. Kyle Gibson, RHP: The Twins left the door open for Gibson to win a spot in the rotation, but some ugly bouts with command this spring confirmed that he's not quite ready yet. Chances are good that he will be after sharpening up for a month or two in Triple-A, and at that point he could immediately become the team's best starter. P.J. Walters, RHP: Walters is always going to be interesting because he spins a dynamite breaking ball, but unfortunately the nasty hook comes coupled with a fastball that falls blatantly short of major-league quality. Still, if you need a spot starter in a pinch, he's not the worst guy to have on hand. He had some nice moments last year. Rich Harden, RHP: He's worth mentioning here, because in a mix that lacks exciting upside he's the one guy who has been a top-flight MLB pitcher at one point in his career. He probably won't be an option until June at the earliest, but if Harden returns to the mound and is throwing well, he should have an easy path back to the majors.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3582[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Chris Parmelee 2012 Stats: .229/.290/.380, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 18 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Wilkin Ramirez, Ryan Doumit One of the big storylines for the Twins this year will be the trio of former first-round draft picks getting opportunities to prove their worth in the majors. Aaron Hicks is the headliner, and Trevor Plouffe has plenty of fanfare after launching 24 homers last season, but Chris Parmelee has slipped under the radar to some extent. Unlike Plouffe and Hicks, Parmelee has had a heck of a time finding a place to stick. The Twins cleared out two center fielders to make room for their prized prospect, and Plouffe has been handed the reins at multiple positions. Conversely, Parmelee has spent much of his time in the majors buried on the depth chart. His overall numbers in the big leagues thus far haven’t been impressive, but he’s never had a sustained chance to settle in. Now, that’s about to change. Clearly right field isn’t the ideal position for Parmelee. He’s slow-footed and will have to rely on quick reactions and smart routes to provide competent defense in the outfield. He’s better suited for first base and it’s possible he’ll land there before season’s end. But defense won’t be the measuring stick for this 25-year-old. Regardless of where he ends up – whether it’s right field, or first base, or DH – Parmelee is not going to be a defensive asset, so he needs to hit in order to last as a major-league regular. Fortunately, he’s shown plenty with the bat over the past couple seasons to inspire hope that he can be a long-term fixture in the lineup. In the earlier portion of his minor-league career, Parmelee was more serviceable than spectacular at the plate, which largely prevented him from gaining prominence as a prospect, but somewhere along the line at New Britain in 2011 he seemingly turned a corner. Late in the year, he joined the Twins as a September call-up and went on an obscene tear, posting a 1.035 OPS with four homers and six doubles in 21 games to instantly push himself into the team’s plans. He followed up the brilliant MLB debut with a 2012 season that was spent shuttling back and forth between Minnesota and Rochester. In the majors, he showed occasional flashes of promise but was largely ineffective, undoubtedly hampered by sporadic playing time. In Triple-A he was outright brilliant, raking to the tune of .338/.457/.645 with 17 homers in 64 games while walking as he often as he struck out. Among players who accumulated 250 or more plate appearances in the International League, he ranked first in batting average, OBP and slugging. It was the type of performance we’d never seen from Parmelee over a lengthy stretch: complete and utter dominance at the dish. Granted, that was Triple-A, and the majors are another matter entirely. But those kinds of numbers – from a 24-year-old who entered the season with only a smattering of at-bats above Double-A – can’t be overlooked. While it's probably best to remain cautious in our optimism, there are plenty of signs that Parmelee has begun realize the potential that the Twins saw when they drafted him 20th overall in 2006. The polished approach the plate. The sweet lefty swing. The ability to spray line drives to all fields. His next step will be transferring it to the big leagues. He’ll have the opportunity to do so in right field this season, but it’s a good bet he won’t remain there for too long. Either he’ll scuffle and be pushed aside for another of the organization’s numerous rising young outfielders (Joe Benson and Oswaldo Arcia are the leading short-term candidates) or he’ll handle the challenge and establish himself as Justin Morneau’s successor at first base. Wherever he's standing in the field, it is at the plate that Parmelee commands attention, and that's where he'll seek to make his mark this year. I, for one, am excited to see what he can do.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3575[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Aaron Hicks 2012 Stats (AA): .286/.384/.460, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 100 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Joe Benson Those who were eager to see an intense and compelling spring competition for the starting center field job have surely been disappointed. Aaron Hicks was the front-runner before camp got underway and then took firm hold of the job with his truly stellar exhibition performance. Joe Benson was demoted to the minors after struggling, and Darin Mastroianni has played well but has missed time. On Sunday, Ron Gardenhire made official what was already apparent: Hicks is going to be his center fielder and leadoff man on Opening Day. This brings a mix of excitement and uncertainty, with no shortage of either. Hicks is coming off an excellent season in Double-A, but he hasn't taken a single regular-season at-bat above that level, and hasn't always been a dominant offensive player in the minors. At various times, the switch hitter has been overly strikeout prone, has struggled to produce from the left side of the plate, and has been baffled by the adjustments of opposing pitchers. Those are real concerns when we're talking about a 23-year-old who's going to be thrown directly into the fire. But through all his ups and downs, Hicks has always exhibited a keenly discerning eye at the plate, along with terrific defense in center field. Those traits have been on display this month in Florida, and when you get past the (possibly fluky) power display and the general buzz surrounding him, they're likely the biggest factors in the club's willingness to have him bypass Triple-A and begin accruing MLB service time immediately. The wisdom of that decision can be questioned, but here's the bottom line: If Hicks struggles in his transition to the majors, he'll be sent to Triple-A knowing specifically what he needs to work on. At that point Mastroianni can ably take over and Hicks' service clock will pause, nullifying the entire concern. If Hicks doesn't get sent down at any point, it'll mean he's figuring things out and we'll probably all be too pleased to fret about manageable long-term ramifications. While Hicks has wrangled in the majority of attention this spring, Mastroianni has done nothing to play his way out of the conversation. The speedster is batting .364 and is 7-for-8 on stolen base attempts. His penchants for getting on base and creating terror once there have made him a scrappy asset, and with his defensive versatility he's an ideal fit as a fourth outfielder. The Twins seem aware of that, and they're content to keep him in that role while Hicks takes the spotlight. The progress of the rising young center fielder will be a central storyline in Minneapolis this year, and a similar one will play out four hours south, where elite prospect Byron Buxton figures to line up in Cedar Rapids. It says an awful lot about the state of the position in this organization that the team can trade away two valuable MLB center fielders during an offseason, then immediately plug in a rookie who has a chance to be better than either, but who himself might just be keeping the spot warm for one of the game's most heralded prospects.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3561[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Josh Willingham 2012 Stats: .260/.366/.524, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 85 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Ryan Doumit Since joining the Minnesota Twins last winter, Josh Willingham has been destroying long-standing conceptions in addition to baseballs. There was a belief that prominent free agents wouldn’t sign in Minnesota. Yet Willingham, coming off a big season in Oakland, came aboard on a favorable three-year deal that at the time looked like a bargain and now looks like an absolute steal. There was a belief that right-handed power hitters couldn’t consistently put the ball over the fence in Target Field’s spacious confines. Willingham christened his new home park with homers in three straight games, and ultimately totaled 21 jackjobs on the year at the Bullseye. There was a belief that Willingham’s historical durability issues made him a poor bet to stay healthy through a full season at age 33. Then he went out and set a career high with 145 games played, avoiding the disabled list for the entirety of the campaign. Terry Ryan has had a disturbingly high whiff rate on free agent signings, but with Willingham the general manager connected for a long shot into the left field seats. The slugging outfielder was everything the Twins could have hoped for in Year One of his contract, anchoring the cleanup spot through the summer while racking up homers and driving in runs at a fantastic rate. On a better team, he may have collected MVP votes. Now Willingham comes face to face with another conception: that a player aging into his mid-30s, coming off a career season marked by unprecedented health, will be hard-pressed to replicate the feat. That is undoubtedly true. Willingham’s first season in a Twins uniform was quite amazing, exceeding anything he’d previously accomplished in his career, and now he’s another year older at 34. But on the bright side, the imposing masher’s value comes more from sheer strength than speed or agility, and that’s not a skill that tends to deteriorate as much with age. Sure, he’ll probably have a tough time reproducing his numbers from 2012. That is the very nature of a career year. But prior to that season, Willingham had been a remarkably consistent hitter, so the smart money is on another .850 OPS, 25 HR type of season. The Twins will take that in a heartbeat. If there’s one area we could expect to see Willingham meaningfully decline this year (aside from games played) it would be his defense. That’s a bit worrisome since he’s already had his fair share of adventures in left field. It’d be no surprise if the Twins start plugging him in at DH more and more often over the course of the campaign, favoring younger and more fleet options in their ballpark’s expansive outfield. This brings us to the position’s depth, which is an interesting subject. At the outset of the season, Darin Mastroianni will likely serve as Willingham’s primary backup, but there are a number of moving parts that could come into play here. Joe Benson and Oswaldo Arcia are both prospects vying to emerge as viable MLB options at some point during the summer. Minor-league veterans Brandon Boggs and Wilkin Ramirez will be on hand. It’s not unthinkable that Trevor Plouffe could be nudged back to a corner outfield spot if he hits but his defense at third isn’t up to snuff. Any of those players would also be an option in right field, and that may be the more likely destination if Chris Parmelee ends up sliding to first. But, as mentioned above, Ron Gardenhire could become inclined over time to help his contact-heavy pitching staff by replacing Willingham in the field with a superior defender, and of course given his history there’s a good chance the seasoned slugger will be nicked up at some point. But make no mistake about it: Whether he’s occupying the area on defense or raining line drives with his ferocious pull-heavy swing from the batter’s box, left field belongs to Josh Willingham this year. And after his prodigious performance in that role last season, Twins fans should be willing set their conceptions aside and enjoy the show.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3539[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Pedro Florimon 2012 Stats: .219/.272/.307, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 16 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll On April 1, Pedro Florimon will become the Twins' ninth Opening Day starter at shortstop in 10 years. Will he be able to become the first player since Cristian Guzman to hold the title for consecutive seasons? Magic 8-ball says: outlook not so good. The path that brought Florimon to the Twins is brushed with a hint of irony. He had been drafted and raised by the Orioles, who watched him rise through their minor-league system and even sip a cup of coffee in the majors before removing him from their 40-man roster after the 2011 campaign. Shortstop had been a problem for the Birds in past years, much like with the Twins, but luckily Baltimore had found its answer at the position in one J.J. Hardy. The Twins claimed Florimon, and subsequently outrighted him from their own 40-man roster, exposing him to waivers and giving every organization a shot at him. Twenty-nine teams passed. It seemed clear that at this point in time Florimon was considered a marginal talent, but the Twins continued to see something in him. And last year, others started to see it as well. Playing in Class-AAA Rochester, the shortstop was voted onto the International League All-Star team in July as folks took notice of his flashy glove work. His bat remained typically unimpressive, but Florimon’s glowing defensive reviews earned him his first extended big-league stint the following month. His 43 games with the Twins in 2012 were a mixed bag. Unsurprisingly, he was a mess at the plate, as evidenced by a .219 batting average and .579 OPS. His defensive contributions are a bit trickier to judge; no metric could be trusted in such a small sample and the eye test registered plenty of good and bad moments. Team brass liked what they saw enough to ignore the shortstop position during the offseason and appoint Florimon starter without any real competition, so there’s that. Clearly, the guy has the athleticism and tools to be a quality defensive shortstop. But he’ll need to be well above average -- and perhaps even elite -- to offer meaningful value as a regular starter, because he’s simply not going to hit. Over the past two years, between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors, he has struck out in 23 percent of his plate appearances. Such drastic contact issues are alarming, especially for a guy who offers little in the way of power or patience to make up for them. Odds are he’ll have a tough time maintaining even a .600 OPS, which would make him a liability in the lineup even at the No. 9 spot. If he plays great defense and the rest of the lineup carries weight, it’s probably a liability the Twins can afford. And that seems to be what they’re counting on. If Florimon can’t hack it, they’ll likely rely on his backup Eduardo Escobar – who carries a similar profile – in the same way. While it’s a bit frustrating to see such a blatantly bad hitter inked into the lineup, I can understand the team’s thinking. Shortstop has been a miserable pain point for the Twins in recent years, and while they stand little chance of extracting much offensive production there from any viable candidate, they can at least hope to shore the position up defensively. Plenty important, in light of the pitching staff’s ground ball tendencies. Florimon is as good a bet as any to fulfill that expectation, but he’s not a long-term answer. Identifying a player with a chance of becoming a lasting asset at the infield’s most important position should sit right next to starting pitching atop this organization’s list of ongoing priorities.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3531[/ATTACH]Likely Starter: Trevor Plouffe 2012 Stats: .235/.301/.455, 24 HR, 55 RBI, 56 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll Identifying a solution at the hot corner has turned into a game of hot potato for the Twins. Since Corey Koskie’s departure, the list of players who have had a hand on the gig is lengthy: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Danny Valencia and more. Unfortunately, in each case, the assignment has proven too hot to handle. Trevor Plouffe is the latest in this long line of contenders and represents the best hope for a long-term solution in the group. His bat, slow to develop in the early minors, has game has elevated dramatically over the past three years. As a 26-year-old on the rise and entering his prime, Plouffe is an intriguing commodity with offensive upside left in the tank even after erupting for 24 homers last year. Of course, hitting isn’t the make-or-break factor for Plouffe at this point. He needs to prove to the Twins that he can consistently make all the plays at third and remain in the infield after fizzling out at shortstop with a poor showing in 2011. Plouffe has all the tools to be an above-average third baseman, with a strong arm and good lateral reflexes, but his mechanics and his focus have sometimes come into question. Without a doubt, his fielding will be under heavy scrutiny from the coaching staff. To his benefit, Plouffe has now had an entire offseason to concentrate on preparing for one specific position, whereas the last few years have seen him slide all over the diamond. Hopefully this, along with the security of a guaranteed regular job, will help him take the steps needed to satisfy the defensive expectations that come along with manning third. Plouffe has already met the offensive expectations, even in a 2012 season that had its ups and downs. He started the year as a part-time infielder, scuffling at the plate with sporadic playing time, but eventually Danny Valencia’s departure created an opening at third and Plouffe settled in. He went on an insane midseason tear, piling up 18 homers in 39 games before a thumb injury cut down his playing time and production in the second half. Plouffe’s power surge was abrupt, but the concentrated distribution of his home runs does not diminish the accomplishment of launching 24 of them in 119 games as a 25-year-old with little major-league experience. And while it may have seemed this way to some, Plouffe’s long-ball proclivity didn’t come out of nowhere. Between Triple-A and the majors, he had gone deep 17 times in 2010 and 23 times in 2011. As he has matured and grown and adjusted, he has developed into a legitimate power hitter. As long as he can stay off the trainer's table, there is no reason to expect that to change this year. Clearly, Plouffe needs to put his health issues behind him. The thumb problem nagged him throughout the final months last year and he has already dealt with a recurring calf injury this spring. But if he can get past these afflictions, I have high hopes. My expectation is that he will hit at least 25 home runs, perhaps 30 or more, and that as he gets more comfortable at third base his skills – which enabled him to stick at shortstop throughout the minors – will start to shine through and he’ll become a quality defender there. Hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced, because if Plouffe doesn’t work out there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on. If he does, the middle of this lineup could be truly formidable.