Nick Nelson

The Rays, possessing a glut of quality starting pitchers and seeking an outfielder who can be an asset at the top of the order, have been pointed at frequently around here as a logical trade partner for the Twins. The Offseason Handbook specifically calls out James Shields and Wade Davis as potential targets in Tampa's pitching corps, and there are several other names that hold appeal. According to reports, the Rays hurler drawing the most interest is Jeremy Hellickson. This isn't surprising. He carries plenty of value as a young right-hander with a 3.06 career ERA and the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year trophy on his shelf. On the surface, he has the makings of a long-term top-of-the-rotation fixture. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] A deeper look, however, would suggest that Hellickson has been performing over his head to some degree in his first couple big-league seasons, making him a risky proposition for a Twins team that can ill afford to whiff on a major trade. I'm a big proponent of K/BB ratio as an indicator of a pitcher's outlook, and although his core numbers have been excellent Hellickson has simply been underwhelming in this category, with a 1.84 ratio in his first two full seasons. His success thus far has been buoyed to a large degree by a low BABIP and a high strand rate. There's plenty of data indicating that neither of those factors can be consistently controlled by a pitcher in the long haul. None of this is to suggest that Hellickson isn't a good pitcher. He's very good. He was an elite prospect before joining the major-league ranks and for the most part you don't put up the kind of numbers he has as a 24/25-year-old in the AL East through sheer luck. I'm fully willing to believe that his game is tailored to produce quality numbers without big strikeout rates. His 9.8 K/9 rate in the minors even suggests that he's got some upside yet in the strikeout department despite a 6.1 mark in his first 400 MLB innings. But the Rays will justifiably be shopping him as a young star pitcher under team control for several years, and as such, they'll be demanding a sizable ransom. In my view, he's been performing at his ceiling and has much more room for regression than improvement going forward. I see him as a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy much more than a legitimate No. 1 or 2. That's certainly not a guy the Twins should be shying away from adding, but at what cost? Terry Ryan and Co. would be much better off identifying a talented pitcher with strong peripherals who has been underperforming and can be acquired at a discount, as opposed to Hellickson who embodies the flip side of that coin.

In recent days, the Twins have announced a few procedural moves that weren't especially surprising. Among them were the decisions to decline 2013 options for Scott Baker and Matt Capps, which would have paid $9.25 million and $6 million, respectively. With both hurlers coming off seasons severely affected by injuries, there was no incentive for the Twins to pay such a high price when they could easily negotiate a better deal in free agency. They have already begun trying to do so with Baker, who told reporters that his side has been talking with the club and that "we're not close, but we're definitely closer than when it started." There's been no such steam surrounding Capps[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], who unlike Baker actually pitched this year, although his health and effectiveness were issues for a second consecutive campaign. Even if they're not currently engaged with Capps and his agent, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point in the offseason the Twins opened a conversation to see what kind of deal could be struck. And, despite the justifiably negative connotations that surround the former closer here in Minnesota, that wouldn't necessarily be the worst idea in the world. Capps was overpaid in 2011, when he earned $7.15 million to post a 4.25 ERA over 65 2/3 innings, converting only 15 of 24 saves while misguidedly pitching through forearm pain. He took a pay cut this year, re-signing for $4.75 million, but again proved overpaid as shoulder problems limited him to less than 30 innings. After back-to-back disappointing seasons, Capps figures to land a reduced contract as a setup man during the offseason. And, on those terms, he's really not a terrible bet. It bears noting that when he was healthy this year, the right-hander pitched reasonably well, posting a 3.68 ERA while allowing only 28 hits and four walks in his 29 1/3 innings of work. This continued a career-long trend of limiting baserunners, as Capps has registered a 1.19 WHIP in his seven uneven seasons as a big-leaguer. Keeping mean off base has generally been a reliable skill for him, and is a good recipe for success even when you're not able to rack up many strikeouts. By no means is Capps a great pitcher, and after the last few seasons I'm sure most Twins fans would eagerly watch him walk off into the sunset never to return. Nevertheless, as a 29-year-old with his value as low as it's ever been, he could be a relative bargain if signed later in the offseason to a one-year deal, provided the Twins aren't tempted to pay him as – or use him as – a closer.

At a glance, one would think that Minnesota's power output this year was well above the norm. Josh Willingham launched 35 bombs and fellow newcomer Ryan Doumit chipped in 18. Trevor Plouffe's 24 were a pleasant surprise, as were Justin Morneau's 19. Even Joe Mauer delivered 10 long balls – just his third time reaching double digits. Despite all of those big power performances, the Twins tied with the Royals for fewest home runs in the American League. While 131 was an improvement over last year's league-worst total of 103, they remained one of the game's least threatening lineups. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The problem is that beyond those aforementioned standout slugging performances, the roster produced no pop. Combined, all other Twins hitters managed 25 homers in 3,390 plate appearances, or one every 136. It's hard to believe that Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, Morneau and Mauer will all repeat their power numbers from this season, so finding players with a bit of muscle to round out the roster ought to be a goal for Terry Ryan this winter, unless he wants his club to sink back toward 2011's dismal homer total. Mauer's unlikely to be a major power threat and Ben Revere will almost surely be starting somewhere in the outfield, so the best approach might be to work around those two spots and maybe try something unconventional. How about a little power from the shortstop position? Yunel Escobar offers a little – he's gone deep 20 times over the past two years – and might be available in a trade. Otherwise, there's Stephen Drew on the free agent market; he will probably have to take a small deal after back-to-back ugly seasons but posted double-digit homer totals in four straight seasons prior, including 21 in 2008. What about second base? The Twins got only one home run from the position in the entire 2012 season. Would Ryan be interested in pursuing a player like Kelly Johnson, who strikes out a ton and weakens your infield defense but has hit 63 home runs over the past three years? Bringing in some backups with the potential to go deep off the bench would also help. There will be several guys in free agency that would fit in that kind of role. Eric Chavez hit 16 homers this year for the Yankees and could platoon with – or challenge – Plouffe. Lefty masher Jonny Gomes would be a nice DH complement to Doumit, who is much better against righties. Scott Hairston is a prolific home run hitter and probably won't cost much. There are a number of different ways to attack this issue, but what's important is that the Twins acknowledge and address it. I hope they won't let strong performances from a few players cause them to overlook what is, undoubtedly, a problematic lack of power across the roster.

1) The Twins will be one of the first teams to sign a pitcher, and it will be a relatively big name. This certainly wouldn't be business as usual, and I don't actually think it'll be Zack Greinke. But the front office has been frank in its dissatisfaction with the current starting pitching situation, and has expressed an urgency to address that unit during the offseason.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In his recent interview with John Bonnes for the Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan hinted that he'd be taking a hard look at some of the better pitchers in free agency, and when John asked whether the plan was to sit back and wait as opposed to aggressively pursuing targets, Ryan responded, "If I do that, we'll probably be holding the bag. You know pitching is going to go off the board." My guess it that the Twins have a list of high-end to mid-tier free agents that they especially like, and they'll get one of those guys signed pretty quickly, which will set the course for the rest of their offseason. 2) Denard Span will be traded. And fans, including myself, will probably be disappointed in the return. Span's a very good player that just doesn't seem to be valued as highly around the league as he should be. It's no secret that the Twins have been open to dealing him multiple times in the past and have never gotten an offer that quite enticed them. This winter, they have more motivation to move him than ever before, with Ben Revere's emergence, Chris Parmelee's presence, rising outfield prospects and major pitching needs. Hopefully Span's best year since 2009 will help the Twins get the return they deserve. 3) Payroll will increase. I'm going out on a limb here to some degree, because most people seem to think the team's spending will sink after another revenue-dropping ugly season. It's hard to blame them. Still, I think Ryan is going to want to do a lot of things this offseason in order to give Ron Gardenhire a fair shot at keeping his job next year, and I think the ownership will give the GM financial flexibility to make a lot of those things happen. It's in everyone's best interest. I'm not saying payroll will rise back to $100 million, as I've suggested it should, but I'd be awfully disappointed to see it drop. Again. 4) Alexi Casilla will be non-tendered. As a guy who can't hit well enough to start and really only excels at one position defensively, Casilla is the definition of a futility infielder. He's entering his third year of arbitration, which means he'll be due for a raise (albeit slight) on his $1.38 million salary from this past year. There's always been a distinct trace of promise somewhere deep within the athletic Casilla, but he's coming off one of his worst seasons and is now 28. It's time to let go. With cheaper options like Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Florimon available, the Twins are likely to agree. 5) The Twins will draft a Rule 5 player who will stick. When asked about how he intends to overhaul the pitching staff during the offseason, Ryan always responds by stating that he intends to pursue "all avenues," and he invariably mentions the Rule 5 draft as one of them. He doesn't mention how rarely impact players are acquired there. Nevertheless, by virtue of another horrible finish the Twins will once again be one of the first teams to pick, and hopefully they've learned a few things from last year's ill-fated Terry Doyle selection. I think they'll grab someone and find room to give him a shot, and I'm not even sure it will be a pitcher. There are other weaknesses on this club.

The World Series is almost underway, which means that the official start of the offseason is rapidly approaching. When the free agent market opens up, one of the central figures will be Zack Greinke, who is the clear top dog in a deep pitching pack. The former Cy Young winner offers ace-level ability, youth and a durable track record. Sure, there are a few question marks surrounding the right-hander, who turns 29 this weekend. He's had some anxiety issues in the past, and his ERA in three seasons since winning the Cy Young with Kansas City is a somewhat pedestrian 3.83. Nevertheless, compared to this year's other big free agent prize, Josh Hamilton, Greinke looks like a perfectly safe bet. Many believe he'll get a nine-figure deal at a time where spending is ramping up and many clubs are looking for pitching help. As a team that needs pitching more desperately than perhaps any other, could the Twins be a player for Greinke? It certainly wouldn't be in their nature to bid on a top free agent pitcher, but things have changed (you'd hope) in the Target Field era and this franchise could use a jolt to re-energize the fan base. Given the lack of high-end pitching in the pipeline, securing an arm like Greinke for the next five or six years would make a whole lot of sense. It's difficult to envision Terry Ryan entering a bidding war against heavyweight suitors like the Angels and Rangers, but in a recent interview with ESPN 1500 he at least left open the possibility: The last part of that quote seemingly rules out the possibility of a mega-contract for someone like Greinke. Then again, if the club was internally mulling that type of investment, you would hardly expect them to shout it out and alert the rest of the league to their intentions. More than most top-tier free agent pitchers, Greinke seems like a fit with Minnesota. He shies away from the bright spotlight more than your typical star player, and has spent nearly his entire career pitching in the Midwest. He's a quiet, cerebral guy that consistently throws strikes. This isn't a CC Sabathia or Cliff Lee, and he probably won't get paid like one, which could improve the chances for a club like the Twins. Of course, there are going to be a lot of teams making their pitch to Greinke this winter. Getting in that mix would not only be uncharacteristic for the Twins, it would be unprecedented. But, when you get down to it, they do have the money to make this type of splash if they really wanted to, especially when you consider that Justin Morneau's $14 million will come off the books in a year and revenue would likely rebound substantially with a star like Greinke brought aboard. Would they actually be willing to stray so far from their comfort zone and saddle themselves with another huge contract alongside Mauer's for the better part of the next decade? Difficult to fathom, but who knows. At some point, they need to stop operating like a small-market team.

Given the vast number of tribulations that have surrounded seemingly every injury affecting a player on the Twins' roster over the past couple years, folks have understandably placed low expectations on Kyle Gibson's rehab process. The young hurler is a member of the organization's sizable faction of Tommy John victims over the past several years, and with all the setbacks that we've grown accustomed to seeing, fans across Twins Territory have conditioned themselves to scale back excitement over his potential impact next season. Gibson is making it increasingly difficult to do so. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The former first-round draft pick, ranked by Baseball America as the game's 34th-best prospect before a 2011 season that saw him tear his UCL, turned in another sterling performance in the Arizona Fall League on Tuesday, allowing just one run on six hits over five innings while striking out eight and walking none. In two starts for the Peoria Javelinas, the right-hander is now 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 16-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 10 innings. Those are fantastic numbers in a traditionally hitter-friendly league. Combining his AFL performance with his three-level minor-league rehab stint that stretched from July to September this season, Gibson has tallied 49 strikeouts and six walks in 38 1/3 innings since returning to pitching competitively about nine months after surgery. Perhaps even more encouraging than the numbers are the reports on Gibson's fastball velocity, which was purportedly registering up to 93 MPH in his latest start. If true, that's a notch above what he was typically reaching before surgery, and a sign that his gaudy strikeout totals may not be a total mirage. Now, to be clear, we're talking about a small sample against minor-league hitters, many of whom aren't even Triple-A caliber. Still, it's tough not to get excited about this major ray of positivity in what's largely been a dark and gloomy starting pitching saga. Even if we're telling ourselves not to.

Since they moved into Target Field, the Twins have seen payroll rise and fall, from $96 million in the opening season, up to $112 million the following year, down to $94 million in 2012. The rise to $112 million last year was purportedly the result of a push to take the next step after falling short in the 2010 postseason. The subsequent scaling back by nearly $20 million was easy enough to figure; the Twins had lost 99 games which led to reduced revenue and also led to a lessened belief that contention in the next year would be possible. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Revenues only dropped further here in 2012, as Target Field saw attendance fall by nearly 400,000. The Twins also lost 96 games. So the general belief is that next year's payroll will drop again, perhaps to $90 million or lower. Terry Ryan has backed up that notion by telling reporters that he doesn't plan to pursue high-profile free agents, which may either be a sign that he's uncomfortable giving big-money long-term deals to pitchers (justifiable) or that the club is simply unwilling to spend on the open market to address its issues (less justifiable). Can the Twins really afford to worry so much about what they can afford? A drop to $90 million or below might make sense based on the organization's typical structure, which calls for putting between 50-52 percent of revenue back into payroll, but it doesn't necessarily make sense for the long-term health of the franchise. If the Twins keep trimming the money they put into their roster, they risk further frustrating the fans and continuing this disturbing trend of attendance decline here in Year Four of their sparkling young ballpark. There's a snowball effect that comes into play here. If the team's performance keeps scuffling as the shiny newness of the stadium wears off, then attendance will keep dropping and so will revenue. Alas, adherence to the set payroll structure will result in an ongoing decline in spending, which will make it increasingly difficult to field a truly competitive team, particularly with $23 million every year owed to Joe Mauer, who is only getting older. It might require them to find money elsewhere and go above their normal percentage, but I believe the Twins should absolutely raise payroll above its current level rather than letting it drop for a second straight year. They don't necessarily need to get back into that $115 million range, but $100 million seems like a reasonable target. While additional spending hardly guarantees a winning team, it does demonstrate to fans a firm commitment to righting the ship, and the extra players brought aboard with that money are bound to generate excitement and sell some tickets. This is a pivotal offseason for the Twins, and one that could very well determine the course of the organization over the next several years. Will ownership play it safe at the risk of exacerbating a sense of apathy among the fan base, or will they green-light some bold moves to give their stagnating product a jolt? The latter option wouldn't be very Twins-like. But maybe that's a good thing.

Five spots in next year's rotation. One guy locked in. It's hard to look at the daunting uncertainty in Minnesota's rotation as a good thing, but there are some fringe benefits to the situation. One is that it may be easier for Terry Ryan to lure in pitchers who are left without a seat and forced to sign minor-league contracts when the music stops on this offseason's free agent class. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] There could be quite a few of those guys standing around in January and February. While every pitcher would like a guaranteed big-league deal, there may not be enough to go around for this deep group, especially considering the risk involved with some of the bottom-of-the-barrel names below. These are just a few examples of pitchers that could miss out on big-league deals due to miserable 2012 campaigns. There's virtually no risk involved with a minor-league contract, and many of these pitchers would carry considerable reward. Roberto Hernandez - RHP 2012 Stats: 14.1 IP, 0-3, 7.53 ERA, 2/3 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP It's been a tough year for the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. In the aftermath of his false identity scandal, he spent the first half of the season in the Dominican Republic waiting on a U.S. visa, then served a three-week suspension upon his return to the States in July. When he finally rejoined the Indians, he pitched horribly for three starts and then missed all of September with an ankle injury. Ouch. Hernandez has plenty of baggage and has certainly been more bad than good in his big-league career, but he was effective as recently as 2010, when he put up a 3.77 ERA in 210 innings, and at 32 he's hardly ancient. His career ground ball rate of 58.5 percent is elite. Chien-Ming Wang - RHP 2012 Stats: 32.1 IP, 2-3, 6.68 ERA, 15/15 K/BB, 2.01 WHIP The Nationals signed Wang to a one-year, $4 million deal last offseason – a sizable sum considering that he'd pitched only 104 innings in the prior three years thanks to shoulder problems. The good news is that Wang's shoulder stayed intact this year. The bad news is… well, everything else. He suffered a hamstring injury in spring training, then after returning in May he missed time due a hip injury, and between those drawn-out ailments he struggled mightily in both the majors and minors. He hasn't been able to stay healthy since 2007, but it's worth noting that he won 19 games in back-to-back years for the Yankees and at 32 there's still a chance he could rediscover that heavy sinker. Jonathan Sanchez - LHP 2012 Stats: 64.2 IP, 1-9, 8.07 ERA, 45/53 K/BB, 2.09 WHIP After acquiring him from the Giants during the offseason for Melky Cabrera, the Royals watched Sanchez absolutely implode, posting a 7.76 ERA over 12 starts while yielding a .937 OPS and handing out more walks than strikeouts. They unloaded him on the Rockies midway through the summer and he was even worse during three starts for Colorado before being shut down for the year. It was one of the worst campaigns we've seen from a pitcher in some time, but Sanchez had been an effective starter in San Francisco for three years prior to his trade to Kansas City, overcoming his shaky control with a gaudy strikeout rate to post a 3.75 ERA from 2009 to 2011. He'll turn only 30 this offseason. Does any of that previous ability still reside within him? Bartolo Colon - RHP 2012 Stats: 152.1 IP, 10-9, 3.43 ERA, 91/23 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP Colon is a different type of case from the guys above in that the anticipated lack of interest in him this winter has nothing to do with his performance over the past season. He was actually very good for the A's… up until he was suspended for 50 games in August after testing positive for Testosterone. Following his travesty of a Cy Young in 2005, Colon failed to reach even 100 innings in four consecutive years and was then out of the game in 2010. He came back last year with the Yankees at age 38 and was shockingly good, and this year with the A's he was even better. Of course, now we might know why. Tough to see the Twins giving him a chance, but who knows, maybe he can keep the magic working even without the juice.

Each year in our Offseason Handbook, we put together a list of all the upcoming free agents at every position. Beyond the write-ups and statistical breakdowns for each player, we estimate the contract we expect them to get, so that armchair GMs can fit prospective acquisitions into their budgets. This is an aspect of the publication that we take very seriously. In fact, every year, we set aside a day for the entire editorial staff to get together and reach a consensus on each what each free agent might get. This process takes several hours and invariably leads to numerous fisticuffs, but the end result is a fair measure of accuracy.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] We feel that giving readers a reasonable idea of what each free agent will command is a cool feature of the product, and so we want to get as close as we can. Given the Twins' current needs, the starting pitcher free agent section is inevitably going to be one of the most important in this year's Handbook. So I thought today I would take a look back at last year's edition and review our contract estimates for starters compared to the actual contracts that those pitchers ultimately received. We certainly weren't always perfect, but in the instances where we missed, perhaps there's a lesson to be learned that can carry over to this year's crop. CC Sabathia Estimated Contract: 5 years, $130M Actual Contract: 5 years, $122M Notes: Sabathia's last contract ran through 2015, but it was widely expected that he would opt out and try to get more money out of the Yankees. He did just that, and we were pretty close on what the two sides ended up agreeing upon. CJ Wilson Estimated Contract: 5 years, $85M Actual Contract: 5 years, $77.5M Notes: We were pretty close on this one as well. The 31-year-old Wilson signed a five-year deal with the Angels for slightly less than we guessed. Edwin Jackson Estimated Contract: 3 years, $33M Actual Contract: 1 year, $11M Notes: We had the annual salary correct, but we didn't expect that Jackson would end up settling for a one-year deal. He probably could've gotten a multi-year contract but ended up signing with the Nats, hoping to pump up his value for the following offseason. I'd say that worked out well for him. He may get that $33 million contract this winter. Mark Buehrle Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30M Actual Contract: 4 years, $58M Notes: Apparently, we grossly underestimated Buehrle's market value. Despite the fact that he was about to turn 33 years old, the Marlins gave him a four-year deal. It's not clear that decision will ultimately work out well, but he was very Buehrle-like in the first year, posting a 3.74 ERA over 202 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma Estimated Contract: 3 years, $25M Actual Contract: 1 year, $1.5M Notes: We just sort of misread this situation. In the 2010-2011 offseason, the Athletics won the bidding on the Japenese hurler with a $19 million posting fee but Iwakuma ultimately decided to return to Japan after the two sides couldn't agree on a contract. We figured it would take a substantial chunk of change to land him one offseason later, but as it turned out the Mariners landed him on the open market for a huge bargain and he made good with a 3.16 ERA. Still only 31 years old, he may land that three-year deal this time around, and the Twins – who reportedly finished runner-up to the A's in the posting system two years ago – could be a player for him. Roy Oswalt Estimated Contract: 2 years, $22M Actual Contract: 1 year, $5M Notes: There was a fair amount of interest in Oswalt last offseason, but rather than signing with a club, he semi-retired, only to sign with the Rangers in late May on a pro-rated $5 million deal. It didn't work out well, as he pitched poorly and ended up getting demoted to the bullpen. Aaron Harang Estimated Contract: 2 years, $15M Actual Contract: 2 years, $12M Notes: We were pretty close on this one, as well as the next three. Hiroki Kuroda Estimated Contract: 1 year, $11M Actual Contract: 1 year, $10M Bruce Chen Estimated Contract: 2 years, $10M Actual Contract: 2 years, $9M Paul Maholm Estimated Contract: 1 year, $4M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4.75M Notes: This deal worked out brilliantly. Not only because Maholm pitched extremely well for a modest fee, but also because they included a team option for $6.5 million, so the Braves will be able to bring him back at a reasonable price next year. This is the kind of contract the Twins should be looking to ink. Joel Pineiro Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: Minor-league deal Notes: Even though he struggled in 2011, we figured that Pineiro would be able to land a guaranteed major-league deal given that he'd turned in a 3.66 ERA over 366 innings the prior two seasons. Injury issues robbed him of that chance and he ended up pitching 24 innings in the minors for the Orioles. Jason Marquis Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $3M Notes: Based on our estimate, the Twins got a bargain! Yay. Freddy Garcia Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M Brad Penny Estimated Contract: 1 year, $2.5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M in Japan Notes: Weird case. Penny followed the money to Japan but was apparently miserable, as he was granted his release from the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks after one start. He returned to the States and made 22 appearances for the Giants but pitched horribly. Interested in seeing our estimates for this year's robust free agent starting pitching class? Pre-order your copy of the Offseason Handbook today and save 30 percent!