Nick Nelson

The Big Picture The Bronx Bombers have made the playoffs in seven of the past eight years but have reached the World Series only once, when they beat the Phillies in 2009. For most teams, one championship in eight years would be perfectly adequate, but not for the Yankees. This is a franchise that appeared in the Fall Classic six times in nine years prior to their latest "drought." [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now, with a 48-32 record that qualifies as second-best in baseball (behind the Rangers) and gives them a comfortable six-game lead in the AL East, you can bet they'll do whatever it takes to position themselves for another strong postseason run. Why They Will Trade With the Twins Championship aspirations? Check. Room to add payroll? Check. Pressure from fan base to make a move? Check. The Yankees have all the characteristics of an aggressive deadline buyer, which means they're exactly the type of club that the Twins should be focusing on should they choose to sell. Moreover, they've suffered some tough losses in the rotation; Michael Pineda was lost for the season in spring training, and more recently Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia went down with injuries that will keep them out for a while (Pettitte likely won't be back until September). In addition, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances – two top prospects that were being counted on to step in at some point this season – have been set back by injuries and ineffectiveness. These events leave the Yanks on shaky ground in the rotation, so it's easy to envision them taking an interest in Francisco Liriano, who they've been linked to in past rumors. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins There's a very narrow fit here. The Twins don't really have any impact starters to trade outside of Liriano, and New York is in no great need of help in the lineup or bullpen. So the question is, how much are they willing to give up for two months of the mercurial Liriano? Even if they're desperate for starting pitching, it's tough to see them moving a high-end prospect for a rental, especially considering that superior impending free agents such as Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels could be made available. Conclusion There's definitely a potential match here, and if Brian Cashman is unwilling to meet the asking prices of Milwaukee or Philadelphia, one could easily imagine him calling up Terry Ryan to inquire about Liriano. At that point, it becomes a matter of settling on a prospect (or prospects) that the Twins like and that the Yankees are willing to move in return for a wild card. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Dellin Betances - RHP Top pitching prospect Manny Banuelos is probably unavailable, but it's possible that Betances – another of the vaunted "Killer B's" – could be plucked. The sky-scraping right-hander was ranked by Baseball America as New York's third-best prospect during the offseason, but he's had a brutal campaign. He was recently demoted from Triple-A to Double-A after posting a 6.39 ERA and 71/69 K/BB ratio in 74 2/3 innings for Scranton. If the Twins feel they could straighten the 24-year-old out, this might be the right time to make a bid for him. But that's a risk, and it's unclear Cashman would be willing to sell low. Gary Sanchez - C Catching prospects are intriguing, because the Twins will be gradually transitioning Joe Mauer away from the position in the coming years and they certainly don't have any amazing backstops on the farm. Sanchez would seemingly be a good fit – he's 19 and hitting very well in Single-A, which means that if all goes well he'd be reaching the majors around the time Mauer is looking at a full-time switch to first base or DH. David Phelps - RHP Despite posting excellent numbers throughout the minors, the former 14th-round pick has never been viewed as a spectacular prospect. He's pitched as a starter and a reliever for the Yankees this year, posting very respectable numbers (37 IP, 3.16 ERA, 34/14 K/BB). A 25-year-old rookie who's missing bats in the majors and has several years of inexpensive team control ahead of him? Sounds like exactly the guy the Twins are looking for. In fact, he should be the first player Ryan asks about.

Since he was first called up in 2008, Denard Span has been an integral cog for the Twins. He's also been a joy to watch. He plays hard, brings a great approach to the plate, offers very solid defense in center, and is good with the fans. Yeah, it's fair to say that I'm a big fan of Span. So I'm going to make sure to savor watching what will very likely be his final month in a Twins uniform. There are a number of factors that lead me to believe Span's departure from the organization is imminent. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] First and foremost, there's Ben Revere's emergence as a legitimate top-of-the-lineup asset. The Twins seem well aware that Revere isn't suited for right field, and at this point his production is almost identical to Span's. Moving Revere to center would create an opening in right field for Chris Parmelee, who's hopelessly buried at this point. Even as someone who thoroughly enjoys watching Span play, I must admit that trading him makes a lot of sense from a team-building standpoint. It would open opportunities for young players while hopefully returning talent at an organizational area of need. The fact that the Twins have floated Span to other teams in the past would also support the notion that they're open to moving him. Reports indicated that they were close to shipping him to Washington at the deadline last year, and those rumblings – from what I heard – did not sit well with the outfielder at all. Is there lingering animosity between player and organization? That certainly hasn't been on display this year. In fact, Ron Gardenhire recently said that Span "might've been our best player in the first half this year." I was struck by that statement, mainly because the center fielder's production hasn't been especially outstanding. A part of me couldn't help but wonder whether Gardy was taking that angle with reporters in an effort to increase Span's appeal to potential suitors. Presumably, finding interested trade partners won't be a huge challenge. Span's concussion issues appear to be a thing of the past, and although he's no longer the top-notch offensive force he was in his first two seasons, he's a very solid 28-year-old leadoff man who handles center field well. His team-friendly contract runs through 2014 (with a 2015 club option) and will pay him just $11 million over the next two seasons. That's a good value for what he brings to the table, but it's also money the Twins could stand to spend elsewhere. Opening up that payroll space, while also creating opportunities for younger guys and getting future assets back in return, is basically a no-brainer regardless of your feelings on Span. Terry Ryan and the rest of the front office brain trust surely realize this, which is why whispers of the center fielder's availability are already leaking out. It wouldn't surprise me if Gardenhire actually does feel like Span has been his best player up to this point. The guy's been a soldier, bouncing back from a tumultuous season and playing in 71 of the club's 77 games over the first three months, providing consistency and stability at the top of the lineup and in the middle of the outfield. Trading him just makes too much sense, however, regardless of whether the Twins are positioning themselves as a seller or not. I'll be very surprised if he's still on the team come August 1st.

Cross one name off the trade deadline "selling" list. Ryan Doumit is here to stay – at least for the foreseeable future. Pleased with the impact of their offseason acquisition, the Twins announced Friday that they've signed the backup catcher and frequent DH to a two-year contract extension worth $7 million. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As the 2011 season came to a close, it had become clear that the catcher position was in drastic need of an upgrade. Joe Mauer, battling assorted health issues, had posted a disappointing .239/.328/.324 line while behind the plate; meanwhile, his backups hit an anemic .158/.209/.227. With Mauer's wellness still in question, the Twins needed to add a player who could fill in behind the plate. Among the list of available free agents, Ryan Doumit stood out as an ideal fit. A capable backstop with enough lumber to fill in at positions like right field and designated hitter, and with a modest price tag. Terry Ryan clearly liked those attributes and got him at a bargain: one year, $3 million. Doumit has lived up to expectations. There's a bit more risk involved with his new contract, of course, but we're talking about $3.5 million per year here. That's about what the Twins threw away on seven starts from Jason Marquis this year; about what they're paying Tsuyoshi Nishioka to play in Rochester. Unlike those two, Doumit has already proven his usefulness. His flexibility suits this club's needs well, now and going forward, and while he's not the kind of dominant bat you build your lineup around he adds some nice switch-hitting punch to the bottom half. Doumit is on the wrong side of 30 and not hugely athletic to begin with, so there exists a real possibility that his decline phase will hit before this contract is over. He's also been injured a lot during his career, and one healthy half hardly erases that history. Nevertheless, the Twins are taking a relatively minor risk here and the (very realistic) upside is that Doumit keeps doing what he's been doing – this year and most of his career – while staying fairly healthy in a role that is designed to keep him that way. Simply put, he has more value to this team than as a trade chip, especially at the price they've locked him up for. This is a great deal from any perspective. What do you think about Doumit's new deal? Join the discussion on our forum thread.

The Big Picture The Jays currently find themselves in a familiar situation, enjoying a good season but struggling to gain traction in a treacherous division. Toronto's 38-36 record would have them a game back in the AL Central, but the team sits last in the East, trailing the red-hot Yankees by 7.5 games. That's right, the Blue Jays – with a record two games over .500 – are only one game closer to first than the Twins, who hold the American League's worst record. Yep, life in the AL East is tough. Of course, this has always been Toronto's plight, and it's not likely to change any time soon. At some point, they need to make an aggressive push to overcome their daunting divisional rivals, and with the strong roster they have assembled, now seems like as good a time as any. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why They Will Trade With the Twins Let's be honest: The Blue Jays' biggest need is pitching. If they want to add to their offensive strength, however, there's one name that sticks out as a natural fit, and that's Justin Morneau. He's Canadian, his prodigious power would play well in Toronto's hitter-friendly stadium and Toronto is hurting at first base. Adam Lind, a former top prospect whose lack of progress in the majors is alarming given that he's now 28, was outrighted to the minors at the end of May with a .185/.271/.311 hitting line and went unclaimed on waivers. He crushed in Triple-A and was recalled this week, but the organization can't be feeling a ton of confidence in him. They are, of course, well aware of the lingering issues Morneau has experienced from a concussion he suffered in their ballpark, not to mention his pesky wrist problems, and they have to be put off by his struggles against lefties. But a recent report stated that the club is "very interested" in Minnesota's first baseman. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Let's be honest: The Blue Jays' biggest need is pitching. Toronto ranks third in the AL in runs scored, second in homers and fourth in OPS. Conversely, they rank 10th in ERA, 11th in WHIP and dead last in K/BB ratio. To make a dent in their offense-heavy division, they need to add some impact arms. Savvy GM Alex Anthopoulos isn't likely be enticed by names such as Carl Pavano or Nick Blackburn, so Terry Ryan's best hope for a match might be Francisco Liriano continuing his dominant run into July or Matt Capps returning with a vengeance. The Jays' rotation has been depleted by injuries and they would love a front line caliber starter to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow; meanwhile their closer situation is iffy given that they had to replace ineffective veteran Francisco Cordero with Casey Janssen about a month into the season and Sergio Santos has been hurt. The problem isn't that the Twins don't have arms that could entice Toronto, it's that the Blue Jays aren't likely to part with quality pitching in a trade and that's surely what the Twins will be seeking. Intriguing options like Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison are mired on the DL for the foreseeable future. Conclusion The Blue Jays have needs that the Twins can address, especially if Liriano and Capps can improve their stock in the coming weeks while the Twins' slim chances of contending fade further. Can Anthopoulos offer up a package that will address Minnesota's long-term needs, though? It's worth noting that there's a history of deadline dealing between the two clubs, though it was nearly a decade ago that Bobby Kielty and Shannon Stewart were swapped. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Jake Marisnick - OF Top prospect Anthony Gose, currently 21 and hitting well at Triple-A, might not be attainable, but his presence in Toronto's system creates some redundancy with Marisnick, another 21-year-old who is currently in High-A and possesses a nice power/speed combo. The Twins have a number of outfield prospects but Marisnick is a notch better than most and would provide more flexibility to trade from an area of depth. Noah Syndergaard - RHP A big 6'5" starter drafted as a supplemental first-round pick in 2010, Syndergaard has a highly acclaimed fastball and it's helped him rack up 64 strikeouts (with only 15 walks) in 48 2/3 innings for Low-A Lansing this year. He's only 19, but offers more upside than perhaps any starter in Minnesota's system. Justin Nicolino - LHP If the Twins fancy a left-hander, Nicolino may catch their eye. He was selected one round after Syndergaard and he's had similarly strong results as a pro, going 9-2 with a 1.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 128-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 118 innings between this season and last. Either young hurler would would be tough to pry away, but would be a worthy prize. Joel Carreno - RHP The pitching prospects mentioned above are both fairly far from the majors, but if the Twins are looking for a more immediate impact they could take a look at Carreno. He's 25 and he's already got some big-league experience, having made a handful of MLB appearances both last year and this year. He's struggled quite a bit with Toronto this year and he's 25, but those factors may increase Toronto's willingness to move him and there remains plenty of upside in his arm. In the minors, he has piled up 690 strikeouts in 647 innings. Carlos Perez - C Travis d'Arnaud is Toronto's best prospect and won't be touched, but the Twins may have a shot at another young backstop. Perez, 21, is thought to have the defensive skills to play catcher in the majors, and he's displayed solid power and plate discipline this year in the Midwest League. The righty swinger would give the Twins another option to eventually replace, or at least caddy with, Joe Mauer behind the plate. Please add your thoughts and trade ideas (and other names the Twins could pursue) in the comments below!

This week's series against the first-place White Sox will serve as a tough test for this Twins team. They've rebounded after a lousy start to go 13-10 over their last 23 games, remaining on the periphery of an AL Central race that no club seems poised to run away with. In three days, the Twins could conceivably be within 5.5 games of first place. They could also find themselves out of it by double digits. Perhaps no one will be under a bigger microscope in this crucial showdown than Francisco Liriano.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He's been great since returning to the rotation at the end of May, posting a 2.67 ERA and 35-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 1/3 innings while allowing only one home run, but his opponents in those five starts have been the Athletics, Royals, Cubs, Brewers and Pirates. Those teams rank 28th, 19th, 25th, 10th and 29th in the majors in OPS, respectively. Liriano has been feasting on weak competition, for the most part, and on Monday he'll be matching up against a first-place team with a starter in Jake Peavy who has been flat-out excellent all year. It would be a stretch to say the Twins are even on the fringes of contention at this point, but they're not out of it. Climbing back into the mix would require a continued transformation from the rotation, and Liriano will need to be one of the guys leading that charge. Both he and the team will have a chance to make a statement at Target Field on Monday night.

You may have noticed a few changes around here recently. That's because we've been making some slight upgrades to the look and functionality of the site, thanks to the addition of a new member to the Twins Daily team. Please welcome Brock Beauchamp, who posts here under the user name rocketpig. Brock is a web designer by trade and he's got plenty of experience running an online Twins community, as he oversaw the website Battle Your Tail Off for many years. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]I've been an on-and-off participant at BYTO, a message board known for its snark and high-level Twins discourse. Brock felt he was starting to burn out on managing the site so he came to us with a proposal to fold it into Twins Daily. We were happy to bring him aboard. By his own admission, Brock isn't a writer, so you probably won't see many stories from him popping up on the front page. He will, however, be an active contributor and moderator in the forums and his technical skills will be invaluable as we continually work to improve the user experience here at TD.com. Please join me in giving Brock (and all other migrating members of BYTO) a warm welcome to the community. UPDATE: Brock wrote a blog post explaining some of the changes he's made thus far and calling for suggestions from users regarding what they'd like to see here on the site. Please find that post here.

You'd figure a team that lost 99 games last year, and now finds itself on pace to lose 96 this year, would instill little confidence in its fan base. Yet, as we creep up on the season's halfway point, I find myself feeling rather optimistic about the Twins' future. No, I don't believe the club is going to miraculously climb back into the AL Central race this year. But I do think that, given some of the positive signs we've seen, the path back to contention is looking shorter than we once may have feared. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Coming into this season, the Twins were in a state of disarray. A disastrous 2011 had caught them like a sucker punch, sullying their reputation as an organization to be emulated and prompting a major front-office shakeup. Alarming question marks swirled around several of the roster's key players, many of whom were amid long-term deals that had the potential to become quite burdensome. Given the number of health concerns attached to position players, and the see-what-sticks approach taken with the pitching staff, no one really knew what to expect from the lineup, the relief corps or the rotation. Fortunately, two of those units have proven solid. The bullpen has been a very pleasant surprise for the Twins, with a WHIP ranking fifth in the majors. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton give them two legitimate back end relievers who are under control for multiple years, Brian Duensing continues to excel as a lefty specialist, and several guys have emerged in the minors as possible blocks with which to build around those three (not to mention all the college relievers drafted earlier this month who figure to be fast risers). All in all, the outlook for this unit is fairly bright. The offense, after a slow start, has also come into its own. The Twins lead the majors in hits this month, and several embattled players are alleviating concerns through their performance on the field. Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have all been relatively healthy and productive; along with Josh Willingham, Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe, this gives them a quality core that is entrenched beyond this season. Granted, the starting pitching is a mess, but that appears to be the only thing holding the Twins back at this point. Building a rotation isn't easy, of course, but the ability to focus on a specific area – as opposed to the across-the-board retooling required during this past offseason – makes returning to contention far less daunting. If the Twins can keep the lineup and bullpen together for the most part, they could find themselves back in the mix as soon as next year IF they get significant improvement from the starters. That's obviously a substantial "if," but between Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson, Nick Blackburn and some freed up money (from departing starters like Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker) to hypothetically put toward a deep free agent pool, the Twins may have some decent options available. It's enough to make you think twice about the notion of trading away guys like Willingham, Morneau and Span (or Burton and Perkins), who could all contribute to a revival next year if they're still around.

It took almost six hours, but the Twins were able to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Brewers on Sunday. To do so, they needed to overcome another non-quality start from Nick Blackburn, who yielded four runs over six innings in what sadly qualifies as one of his best outings this season. The right-hander's results weren't bad until Corey Hart took him deep for a three-run homer with two outs in the fifth, but he had been dancing on a tight rope all day. Milwaukee put runners in scoring position in each of the first four innings only to come away with one run; indeed, Hart's back-breaker seemed inevitable. It was a typically ineffective effort from Blackburn, who has turned in only one quality start in 10 outings this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Granted, this isn't necessarily an earth-shattering development. We've seen him struggle before. But in past instances, his periods of turmoil have directly coincided with arm ailments, as his two worst seasons have both been followed by surgeries. This year, Blackburn's health did not seem to be in question while he cruised through spring training with a 2.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 17 innings, but his performance since the start of April has been inexplicably dreadful and hardly reminiscent of his glory days. In 2008 and 2009, Blackburn was a valuable starter – an inexpensive, above-average innings-eater. During that period, he made up for high hit rates by commanding the zone and hitting his spots relentlessly, averaging around a walk per game. This season, he has issued multiple walks in seven of his 10 starts and thrown a career-low 60 percent of his pitches for strikes. Blackburn routinely ranks as one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and that's certainly been true this year; his opponents' batting average of .329 is nearly 20 points higher than any qualifying starter. A guy like that simply can't survive with mediocre command, and that's where he's at right now. We're not seeing many signs that it's ready to turn around, either. Unfortunately, the Twins have little choice but to stick with him at this point. With Carl Pavano and P.J. Walters both on the disabled list, the club is already short on starters. Beyond that, they have a vested interest in letting Blackburn work through these issues and try to recapture the form that made him effective in the past. Like it or not, he's under contract next year for $5.5 million, and if the Twins are going to swallow that money and cut bait they'd better be completely certain he doesn't have it in him any more to produce the way he did in his early years. I'm not ready to jump to that conclusion yet, and neither are they I'm sure. But the team's patience can't last forever. Especially with a guy who hasn't been able to put together a full season since 2009.

On Thursday night, Scott Diamond allowed four runs over six innings against the Phillies. It qualified as arguably his worst start since being called up back in early May, but it was hardly a disaster and would have kept the Twins in the game had the offense mustered any kind of production against Joe Blanton. Even after turning in just his second non-quality start in eight tries, Diamond remains the class of the Twins' rotation.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] His recipe for success up to this point has been quite simple, and it's one that he strayed from against Philadelphia: Keep the ball in the park. In the four starts where he has not allowed a home run, he is 4-0 with a 0.00 ERA. In the four starts where he has allowed a home run, he is 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA. Nine of the 12 earned runs tallied against the lefty have crossed on homers, including all four on Thursday. That trend won't last forever – he's holding opposing hitters to a clearly unsustainable .175 average with runners in scoring position – but his ability to limit the long ball has clearly been a big factor in his effectiveness. And fortunately, that trait has proven to be very sustainable over the course of his professional career. Before yielding two home runs against the Phillies on Thursday, Diamond had coughed up only four in 44 1/3 innings this season. Last year, even when he was getting knocked around in the majors as a rookie, he gave up just three bombs in 39 frames. In the minors, opponents went deep against him 31 times in 600 innings – a sparkling average of one home run per every 19 innings pitched. Grounders never travel over the fence, so for a pitcher that lacks strikeout stuff they are a powerful weapon. Diamond entered his latest start with an elite 61.1 percent GB rate. Only two qualifying MLB pitchers top that number. The 25-year-old hung a couple pitches on Thursday night and paid for it, but overall the outing should not be viewed as a discouraging one. The biggest keys to his success thus far have been throwing strikes and burning worms; even though he issued two walks and surrendered two bombs against the Phillies, he threw 65 of 100 pitches for strikes and induced 14 ground balls in six innings. If that's his idea of a bad night, I'll take it.