Nick Nelson

Cross one name off the trade deadline "selling" list. Ryan Doumit is here to stay – at least for the foreseeable future. Pleased with the impact of their offseason acquisition, the Twins announced Friday that they've signed the backup catcher and frequent DH to a two-year contract extension worth $7 million. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As the 2011 season came to a close, it had become clear that the catcher position was in drastic need of an upgrade. Joe Mauer, battling assorted health issues, had posted a disappointing .239/.328/.324 line while behind the plate; meanwhile, his backups hit an anemic .158/.209/.227. With Mauer's wellness still in question, the Twins needed to add a player who could fill in behind the plate. Among the list of available free agents, Ryan Doumit stood out as an ideal fit. A capable backstop with enough lumber to fill in at positions like right field and designated hitter, and with a modest price tag. Terry Ryan clearly liked those attributes and got him at a bargain: one year, $3 million. Doumit has lived up to expectations. There's a bit more risk involved with his new contract, of course, but we're talking about $3.5 million per year here. That's about what the Twins threw away on seven starts from Jason Marquis this year; about what they're paying Tsuyoshi Nishioka to play in Rochester. Unlike those two, Doumit has already proven his usefulness. His flexibility suits this club's needs well, now and going forward, and while he's not the kind of dominant bat you build your lineup around he adds some nice switch-hitting punch to the bottom half. Doumit is on the wrong side of 30 and not hugely athletic to begin with, so there exists a real possibility that his decline phase will hit before this contract is over. He's also been injured a lot during his career, and one healthy half hardly erases that history. Nevertheless, the Twins are taking a relatively minor risk here and the (very realistic) upside is that Doumit keeps doing what he's been doing – this year and most of his career – while staying fairly healthy in a role that is designed to keep him that way. Simply put, he has more value to this team than as a trade chip, especially at the price they've locked him up for. This is a great deal from any perspective. What do you think about Doumit's new deal? Join the discussion on our forum thread.

The Big Picture The Jays currently find themselves in a familiar situation, enjoying a good season but struggling to gain traction in a treacherous division. Toronto's 38-36 record would have them a game back in the AL Central, but the team sits last in the East, trailing the red-hot Yankees by 7.5 games. That's right, the Blue Jays – with a record two games over .500 – are only one game closer to first than the Twins, who hold the American League's worst record. Yep, life in the AL East is tough. Of course, this has always been Toronto's plight, and it's not likely to change any time soon. At some point, they need to make an aggressive push to overcome their daunting divisional rivals, and with the strong roster they have assembled, now seems like as good a time as any. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why They Will Trade With the Twins Let's be honest: The Blue Jays' biggest need is pitching. If they want to add to their offensive strength, however, there's one name that sticks out as a natural fit, and that's Justin Morneau. He's Canadian, his prodigious power would play well in Toronto's hitter-friendly stadium and Toronto is hurting at first base. Adam Lind, a former top prospect whose lack of progress in the majors is alarming given that he's now 28, was outrighted to the minors at the end of May with a .185/.271/.311 hitting line and went unclaimed on waivers. He crushed in Triple-A and was recalled this week, but the organization can't be feeling a ton of confidence in him. They are, of course, well aware of the lingering issues Morneau has experienced from a concussion he suffered in their ballpark, not to mention his pesky wrist problems, and they have to be put off by his struggles against lefties. But a recent report stated that the club is "very interested" in Minnesota's first baseman. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Let's be honest: The Blue Jays' biggest need is pitching. Toronto ranks third in the AL in runs scored, second in homers and fourth in OPS. Conversely, they rank 10th in ERA, 11th in WHIP and dead last in K/BB ratio. To make a dent in their offense-heavy division, they need to add some impact arms. Savvy GM Alex Anthopoulos isn't likely be enticed by names such as Carl Pavano or Nick Blackburn, so Terry Ryan's best hope for a match might be Francisco Liriano continuing his dominant run into July or Matt Capps returning with a vengeance. The Jays' rotation has been depleted by injuries and they would love a front line caliber starter to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow; meanwhile their closer situation is iffy given that they had to replace ineffective veteran Francisco Cordero with Casey Janssen about a month into the season and Sergio Santos has been hurt. The problem isn't that the Twins don't have arms that could entice Toronto, it's that the Blue Jays aren't likely to part with quality pitching in a trade and that's surely what the Twins will be seeking. Intriguing options like Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison are mired on the DL for the foreseeable future. Conclusion The Blue Jays have needs that the Twins can address, especially if Liriano and Capps can improve their stock in the coming weeks while the Twins' slim chances of contending fade further. Can Anthopoulos offer up a package that will address Minnesota's long-term needs, though? It's worth noting that there's a history of deadline dealing between the two clubs, though it was nearly a decade ago that Bobby Kielty and Shannon Stewart were swapped. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Jake Marisnick - OF Top prospect Anthony Gose, currently 21 and hitting well at Triple-A, might not be attainable, but his presence in Toronto's system creates some redundancy with Marisnick, another 21-year-old who is currently in High-A and possesses a nice power/speed combo. The Twins have a number of outfield prospects but Marisnick is a notch better than most and would provide more flexibility to trade from an area of depth. Noah Syndergaard - RHP A big 6'5" starter drafted as a supplemental first-round pick in 2010, Syndergaard has a highly acclaimed fastball and it's helped him rack up 64 strikeouts (with only 15 walks) in 48 2/3 innings for Low-A Lansing this year. He's only 19, but offers more upside than perhaps any starter in Minnesota's system. Justin Nicolino - LHP If the Twins fancy a left-hander, Nicolino may catch their eye. He was selected one round after Syndergaard and he's had similarly strong results as a pro, going 9-2 with a 1.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 128-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 118 innings between this season and last. Either young hurler would would be tough to pry away, but would be a worthy prize. Joel Carreno - RHP The pitching prospects mentioned above are both fairly far from the majors, but if the Twins are looking for a more immediate impact they could take a look at Carreno. He's 25 and he's already got some big-league experience, having made a handful of MLB appearances both last year and this year. He's struggled quite a bit with Toronto this year and he's 25, but those factors may increase Toronto's willingness to move him and there remains plenty of upside in his arm. In the minors, he has piled up 690 strikeouts in 647 innings. Carlos Perez - C Travis d'Arnaud is Toronto's best prospect and won't be touched, but the Twins may have a shot at another young backstop. Perez, 21, is thought to have the defensive skills to play catcher in the majors, and he's displayed solid power and plate discipline this year in the Midwest League. The righty swinger would give the Twins another option to eventually replace, or at least caddy with, Joe Mauer behind the plate. Please add your thoughts and trade ideas (and other names the Twins could pursue) in the comments below!

This week's series against the first-place White Sox will serve as a tough test for this Twins team. They've rebounded after a lousy start to go 13-10 over their last 23 games, remaining on the periphery of an AL Central race that no club seems poised to run away with. In three days, the Twins could conceivably be within 5.5 games of first place. They could also find themselves out of it by double digits. Perhaps no one will be under a bigger microscope in this crucial showdown than Francisco Liriano.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He's been great since returning to the rotation at the end of May, posting a 2.67 ERA and 35-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 1/3 innings while allowing only one home run, but his opponents in those five starts have been the Athletics, Royals, Cubs, Brewers and Pirates. Those teams rank 28th, 19th, 25th, 10th and 29th in the majors in OPS, respectively. Liriano has been feasting on weak competition, for the most part, and on Monday he'll be matching up against a first-place team with a starter in Jake Peavy who has been flat-out excellent all year. It would be a stretch to say the Twins are even on the fringes of contention at this point, but they're not out of it. Climbing back into the mix would require a continued transformation from the rotation, and Liriano will need to be one of the guys leading that charge. Both he and the team will have a chance to make a statement at Target Field on Monday night.

You may have noticed a few changes around here recently. That's because we've been making some slight upgrades to the look and functionality of the site, thanks to the addition of a new member to the Twins Daily team. Please welcome Brock Beauchamp, who posts here under the user name rocketpig. Brock is a web designer by trade and he's got plenty of experience running an online Twins community, as he oversaw the website Battle Your Tail Off for many years. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]I've been an on-and-off participant at BYTO, a message board known for its snark and high-level Twins discourse. Brock felt he was starting to burn out on managing the site so he came to us with a proposal to fold it into Twins Daily. We were happy to bring him aboard. By his own admission, Brock isn't a writer, so you probably won't see many stories from him popping up on the front page. He will, however, be an active contributor and moderator in the forums and his technical skills will be invaluable as we continually work to improve the user experience here at TD.com. Please join me in giving Brock (and all other migrating members of BYTO) a warm welcome to the community. UPDATE: Brock wrote a blog post explaining some of the changes he's made thus far and calling for suggestions from users regarding what they'd like to see here on the site. Please find that post here.

You'd figure a team that lost 99 games last year, and now finds itself on pace to lose 96 this year, would instill little confidence in its fan base. Yet, as we creep up on the season's halfway point, I find myself feeling rather optimistic about the Twins' future. No, I don't believe the club is going to miraculously climb back into the AL Central race this year. But I do think that, given some of the positive signs we've seen, the path back to contention is looking shorter than we once may have feared. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Coming into this season, the Twins were in a state of disarray. A disastrous 2011 had caught them like a sucker punch, sullying their reputation as an organization to be emulated and prompting a major front-office shakeup. Alarming question marks swirled around several of the roster's key players, many of whom were amid long-term deals that had the potential to become quite burdensome. Given the number of health concerns attached to position players, and the see-what-sticks approach taken with the pitching staff, no one really knew what to expect from the lineup, the relief corps or the rotation. Fortunately, two of those units have proven solid. The bullpen has been a very pleasant surprise for the Twins, with a WHIP ranking fifth in the majors. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton give them two legitimate back end relievers who are under control for multiple years, Brian Duensing continues to excel as a lefty specialist, and several guys have emerged in the minors as possible blocks with which to build around those three (not to mention all the college relievers drafted earlier this month who figure to be fast risers). All in all, the outlook for this unit is fairly bright. The offense, after a slow start, has also come into its own. The Twins lead the majors in hits this month, and several embattled players are alleviating concerns through their performance on the field. Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have all been relatively healthy and productive; along with Josh Willingham, Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe, this gives them a quality core that is entrenched beyond this season. Granted, the starting pitching is a mess, but that appears to be the only thing holding the Twins back at this point. Building a rotation isn't easy, of course, but the ability to focus on a specific area – as opposed to the across-the-board retooling required during this past offseason – makes returning to contention far less daunting. If the Twins can keep the lineup and bullpen together for the most part, they could find themselves back in the mix as soon as next year IF they get significant improvement from the starters. That's obviously a substantial "if," but between Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson, Nick Blackburn and some freed up money (from departing starters like Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker) to hypothetically put toward a deep free agent pool, the Twins may have some decent options available. It's enough to make you think twice about the notion of trading away guys like Willingham, Morneau and Span (or Burton and Perkins), who could all contribute to a revival next year if they're still around.

It took almost six hours, but the Twins were able to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Brewers on Sunday. To do so, they needed to overcome another non-quality start from Nick Blackburn, who yielded four runs over six innings in what sadly qualifies as one of his best outings this season. The right-hander's results weren't bad until Corey Hart took him deep for a three-run homer with two outs in the fifth, but he had been dancing on a tight rope all day. Milwaukee put runners in scoring position in each of the first four innings only to come away with one run; indeed, Hart's back-breaker seemed inevitable. It was a typically ineffective effort from Blackburn, who has turned in only one quality start in 10 outings this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Granted, this isn't necessarily an earth-shattering development. We've seen him struggle before. But in past instances, his periods of turmoil have directly coincided with arm ailments, as his two worst seasons have both been followed by surgeries. This year, Blackburn's health did not seem to be in question while he cruised through spring training with a 2.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 17 innings, but his performance since the start of April has been inexplicably dreadful and hardly reminiscent of his glory days. In 2008 and 2009, Blackburn was a valuable starter – an inexpensive, above-average innings-eater. During that period, he made up for high hit rates by commanding the zone and hitting his spots relentlessly, averaging around a walk per game. This season, he has issued multiple walks in seven of his 10 starts and thrown a career-low 60 percent of his pitches for strikes. Blackburn routinely ranks as one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and that's certainly been true this year; his opponents' batting average of .329 is nearly 20 points higher than any qualifying starter. A guy like that simply can't survive with mediocre command, and that's where he's at right now. We're not seeing many signs that it's ready to turn around, either. Unfortunately, the Twins have little choice but to stick with him at this point. With Carl Pavano and P.J. Walters both on the disabled list, the club is already short on starters. Beyond that, they have a vested interest in letting Blackburn work through these issues and try to recapture the form that made him effective in the past. Like it or not, he's under contract next year for $5.5 million, and if the Twins are going to swallow that money and cut bait they'd better be completely certain he doesn't have it in him any more to produce the way he did in his early years. I'm not ready to jump to that conclusion yet, and neither are they I'm sure. But the team's patience can't last forever. Especially with a guy who hasn't been able to put together a full season since 2009.

On Thursday night, Scott Diamond allowed four runs over six innings against the Phillies. It qualified as arguably his worst start since being called up back in early May, but it was hardly a disaster and would have kept the Twins in the game had the offense mustered any kind of production against Joe Blanton. Even after turning in just his second non-quality start in eight tries, Diamond remains the class of the Twins' rotation.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] His recipe for success up to this point has been quite simple, and it's one that he strayed from against Philadelphia: Keep the ball in the park. In the four starts where he has not allowed a home run, he is 4-0 with a 0.00 ERA. In the four starts where he has allowed a home run, he is 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA. Nine of the 12 earned runs tallied against the lefty have crossed on homers, including all four on Thursday. That trend won't last forever – he's holding opposing hitters to a clearly unsustainable .175 average with runners in scoring position – but his ability to limit the long ball has clearly been a big factor in his effectiveness. And fortunately, that trait has proven to be very sustainable over the course of his professional career. Before yielding two home runs against the Phillies on Thursday, Diamond had coughed up only four in 44 1/3 innings this season. Last year, even when he was getting knocked around in the majors as a rookie, he gave up just three bombs in 39 frames. In the minors, opponents went deep against him 31 times in 600 innings – a sparkling average of one home run per every 19 innings pitched. Grounders never travel over the fence, so for a pitcher that lacks strikeout stuff they are a powerful weapon. Diamond entered his latest start with an elite 61.1 percent GB rate. Only two qualifying MLB pitchers top that number. The 25-year-old hung a couple pitches on Thursday night and paid for it, but overall the outing should not be viewed as a discouraging one. The biggest keys to his success thus far have been throwing strikes and burning worms; even though he issued two walks and surrendered two bombs against the Phillies, he threw 65 of 100 pitches for strikes and induced 14 ground balls in six innings. If that's his idea of a bad night, I'll take it.

It would be nice if the Twins kept up their recent winning pace through late July, climbing back into the AL Central picture after being left for dead in May. Unfortunately, their lack of starting pitching makes that difficult to realistically envision. In the more likely event that the Twins are firmly out of contention when the trade deadline rolls around, they'll find themselves in an unfamiliar position.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Only once in the past decade has the club behaved as a seller at the deadline; in 2007, seven games out in the AL Central, they traded Luis Castillo and his remaining salary to the Mets for two prospects. Even then they were confident that the heir apparent Alexi Casilla could step in and replace Castillo's modest production. If the Twins' current 8.5-game deficit in the standings hasn't shrunk significantly within a month, most would agree that it will be time to see what kind of value they can get for their movable assets. But who should they be looking to deal? The most obvious candidates are the guys in the final years of their contracts – such as Matt Capps, Ryan Doumit and Carl Pavano – but none are likely to make a large impact for a contender so it's doubtful any GM is going to give up much for two months of service. The best the Twins can hope for by trading these players would be payroll relief and a B-prospect. Quality players with team-friendly contracts extending past this year – such as Denard Span and Josh Willingham – may do more to entice bidders, but the stakes are raised. In trading players with long-term value, returning good prospects is a must. Given the organization's spotty track record evaluating players from other teams in recent years, one can't help but worry about that a little. As I look over the roster, I see one player who could become an appealing, fungible trading chip at the deadline: Francisco Liriano. He's almost surely gone after this year, so shipping him out would be a no-brainer in a seller scenario. His current 1-7 record and 6.45 ERA aren't going to blow anyone away but opposing clubs might be more inclined to focus on his numbers since a bullpen demotion in early May: 25 IP, 3.24 ERA, 32-to-13 K/BB, .198 opponents' batting average, zero homers allowed. If the inconsistent lefty can maintain his improved production from the past month over the next month, he may actually become a legitimate commodity as the deadline looms, giving the Twins leverage that they probably won't have with any of the other walk-year players. It's something to root for even if the usual June winning spell comes to an end.

The circumstances and details have differed, but so far the course of this Twins season has very closely mirrored the last one. In both instances, the club looked strong coming out of spring training before being derailed by injuries and poor performance over the first two months, digging a deep early hole. When June came around last year, the Twins suddenly turned things around, taking advantage of weaker competition and rattling off victories (17 out of 19 at one point) to make a run at the .500 mark, which seemed like an unthinkable feat when they finished May at 19 games under. They kept playing well into July, creating some ambiguity as to their status as buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, but then the wheels came off completely in August and September. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Staying consistent with last year's storyline, the 2012 Twins have turned things around here as weather has heated up and the schedule has softened. They've won four straight series and six of their last eight; prior to this stretch they had won only two of their last 24 series dating back to last year. It's been a stark turnaround, much like the one we saw around this time last summer when the Twins posted a .654 June winning percentage compared to .338 over the rest of the campaign. That sudden spell of success created a lot of hope, which came crashing down in a nightmarish final third of the season. In light of these parallels, fans are now wondering whether the team's current improvement is legitimate or another painful mirage. Fortunately, there are plenty of indications that a similarly dramatic drop-off is not on the horizon. It starts at the core. Whereas last year Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were never quite right, both are healthy and playing at an extremely high level right now. Since May 16th (when Morneau returned from the disabled list) Mauer is hitting .356 with six doubles and two of his three home runs; Morneau has 11 extra-base hits – including six homers – and is averaging an RBI per game. The rest of the lineup has contributed around those two. Josh Willingham has of course been fantastic. Denard Span and Ben Revere have formed a dynamic and effective table-setting force at the top of the lineup. Trevor Plouffe has eight homers in his last 18 games and is starting to look like an actual major-league third baseman. There are tons of positives on offense, and as long as most people stay healthy that unit should remain in good shape. Pitching is another story. There have certainly been some positives there as well, but even those carry major caveats. (When will the bad Frankie return? When will Scott Diamond's bubble burst?) Absolutely we should expect better from the rotation over the rest of the campaign – a 6-plus ERA was probably never sustainable – but it seems highly unlikely that this flawed group of starters can do enough to turn this three-week run of success into a three-month run, which is what the Twins would need to crawl back into contention after an abysmal start. The offense is good, but not good enough to overcome a below-average pitching staff and win at a .600-plus clip the rest of the way? Hard to see. Of course, most realists aren't expecting that. Most are just hoping for solid, watchable baseball as opposed to the ugly mess that we were exposed to in April and the first half of May. And if the Twins really do want to surpass expectations and make a statement, there's no time like the present. Their next six games are at home, their next 12 are against the National League (which they have historically dominated) and they'll follow that up with 11 straight against teams ahead of them in the AL Central.