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There's a saying that goes: one man's persisting and possibly career-ending concussion aftermath is another man's opportunity. Something like that, anyway. Up to this point, things have gone smoothly for Justin Morneau, who has been able to get through all his workouts and delivered an RBI single in the Twins' Grapefruit League opener on Saturday. But the first baseman acknowledged recently that post-concussion symptoms continued to haunt him throughout the offseason, and that if they return he's probably going to have to hang up the spikes. Those would be some pretty big spikes to fill. Morneau has been a godsend for the Twins, largely because he's the type of player that this organization has struggled to produce: a truly elite slugger. He drove in 100 or more runs every year from 2006 to 2009, becoming the first Twin ever to reach triple digits in four consecutive seasons. His ability to hit for both average and power made him one of the most feared and respected batsmen in the league. That's exactly the kind of player you want at first base. If Morneau can't return to that level, there's no one in the short-term picture who can even come close to replacing the production he offered when healthy. In fact, it's not clear that the Twins could even find a competent bat to stick at first base if Morneau's brain injury forced him out. The organization's best hopes at this point lie with Chris Parmelee. If he can keep doing what he's been doing since the midway point last year, he offers optimism that the Twins could get by without Morneau's mighty bat at first base. Parmelee's first four seasons in Minnesota's system after being drafted 20th overall in 2006 were largely underwhelming. He moved very gradually up the minor-league ladder, battled injuries and posted solid yet unspectacular numbers as a slow-footed first baseman and corner outfielder. Last year, at the age of 23, Parmelee turned a corner. His overall numbers at New Britain – .287/.366/.436 with 13 homers – were very much in line with his past production. Yet, hidden in those numbers were some very promising signs. [ATTACH=CONFIG]257[/ATTACH] For one thing, he finally stayed healthy all year, appearing in a career-high 142 games over five months with the Rock Cats before playing in another 21 after a September promotion to Minnesota. Parmelee also got stronger as the season went along. After hitting .283 with five home runs between April, May and June, he hit .305 with six homers and 26 RBI in July, then hit .302 with a pair of dingers in August before heading north and hitting .355 with four homers for the Twins in September. It's great to see Parmelee hitting for average, considering that he hit just .250 over his first four years as a pro, and it's especially encouraging to see him hitting the ball out of the yard more frequently. In the end, his ability to hit for power will largely dictate his overall value. No one expects Parmelee to develop into the type of dominant slugger that Morneau has been for the Twins. But if his recent improvement is legitimate, and he can become 20-homer type with a solid average and walk rate, the thought of losing Morneau becomes considerably less traumatizing. Parmelee's two-run homer in yesterday's exhibition game is a promising sign that his new-found power is here to stay. I'll be looking for more of that as the spring progresses.
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There's a saying that goes: one man's persisting and possibly career-ending concussion aftermath is another man's opportunity. Something like that, anyway. Up to this point, things have gone smoothly for Justin Morneau, who has been able to get through all his workouts and delivered an RBI single in the Twins' Grapefruit League opener on Saturday. But the first baseman acknowledged recently that post-concussion symptoms continued to haunt him throughout the offseason, and that if they return he's probably going to have to hang up the spikes. Those would be some pretty big spikes to fill. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Morneau has been a godsend for the Twins, largely because he's the type of player that this organization has struggled to produce: a truly elite slugger. He drove in 100 or more runs every year from 2006 to 2009, becoming the first Twin ever to reach triple digits in four consecutive seasons. His ability to hit for both average and power made him one of the most feared and respected batsmen in the league. That's exactly the kind of player you want at first base. If Morneau can't return to that level, there's no one in the short-term picture who can even come close to replacing the production he offered when healthy. In fact, it's not clear that the Twins could even find a competent bat to stick at first base if Morneau's brain injury forced him out. The organization's best hopes at this point lie with Chris Parmelee. If he can keep doing what he's been doing since the midway point last year, he offers optimism that the Twins could get by without Morneau's mighty bat at first base. Parmelee's first four seasons in Minnesota's system after being drafted 20th overall in 2006 were largely underwhelming. He moved very gradually up the minor-league ladder, battled injuries and posted solid yet unspectacular numbers as a slow-footed first baseman and corner outfielder. Last year, at the age of 23, Parmelee turned a corner. His overall numbers at New Britain – .287/.366/.436 with 13 homers – were very much in line with his past production. Yet, hidden in those numbers were some very promising signs. For one thing, he finally stayed healthy all year, appearing in a career-high 142 games over five months with the Rock Cats before playing in another 21 after a September promotion to Minnesota. Parmelee also got stronger as the season went along. After hitting .283 with five home runs between April, May and June, he hit .305 with six homers and 26 RBI in July, then hit .302 with a pair of dingers in August before heading north and hitting .355 with four homers for the Twins in September. It's great to see Parmelee hitting for average, considering that he hit just .250 over his first four years as a pro, and it's especially encouraging to see him hitting the ball out of the yard more frequently. In the end, his ability to hit for power will largely dictate his overall value. No one expects Parmelee to develop into the type of dominant slugger that Morneau has been for the Twins. But if his recent improvement is legitimate, and he can become 20-homer type with a solid average and walk rate, the thought of losing Morneau becomes considerably less traumatizing. Parmelee's two-run homer in yesterday's exhibition game is a promising sign that his new-found power is here to stay. I'll be looking for more of that as the spring progresses.
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The Twins played their unofficial first game of the spring on Thursday -- a 'B' game against the Red Sox at Hammond Field. Obviously, you can't put much stock into what goes on during exhibition contests – particularly an informal affair such as this one – but one performance that stuck out to me was that of Carlos Gutierrez, who struggled through two-thirds of an inning and raised the ire of his manager. Pitching in relief against a lineup filled with Boston backups, Gutierrez issued three walks and a two-run double, managing to record just two outs before the inning was cut short. Ron Gardenhire was none too pleased: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Gardenhire doesn't call players out this candidly in the media very often, but I've noticed that oftentimes he'll do it when he's frustrated and disappointed because his expectations weren't met. I think this is one such instant. Gutierrez is a guy the Twins are looking at to carry weight in their patchwork bullpen this season. I listed him as one of four key players to watch in my Spring Training Preview last month. Drafted out of college in the first round four years ago, now is the time for him to be stepping up. Yet, while he's got the stuff to profile as a solid reliever, his control continues to lag behind. Last year in Rochester, Gutierrez averaged a career-best 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but that came with 31 walks in 62 frames. He's always given up a fair amount of hits, so it seems unlikely that Gutierrez will be a real asset in the bullpen unless he can significantly reduce the number of free passes. Thursday's outing doesn't provide a great deal of encouragement on that front, but it's still very early and hopefully Gardenhire was right when he said the erratic performance might have been attributable to nerves.
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The Twins played their unofficial first game of the spring on Thursday -- a 'B' game against the Red Sox at Hammond Field. Obviously, you can't put much stock into what goes on during exhibition contests – particularly an informal affair such as this one – but one performance that stuck out to me was that of Carlos Gutierrez, who struggled through two-thirds of an inning and raised the ire of his manager. Pitching in relief against a lineup filled with Boston backups, Gutierrez issued three walks and a two-run double, managing to record just two outs before the inning was cut short. Ron Gardenhire was none too pleased: Gardenhire doesn't call players out this candidly in the media very often, but I've noticed that oftentimes he'll do it when he's frustrated and disappointed because his expectations weren't met. I think this is one such instant. Gutierrez is a guy the Twins are looking at to carry weight in their patchwork bullpen this season. I listed him as one of four key players to watch in my Spring Training Preview last month. Drafted out of college in the first round four years ago, now is the time for him to be stepping up. [ATTACH=CONFIG]236[/ATTACH] Yet, while he's got the stuff to profile as a solid reliever, his control continues to lag behind. Last year in Rochester, Gutierrez averaged a career-best 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but that came with 31 walks in 62 frames. He's always given up a fair amount of hits, so it seems unlikely that Gutierrez will be a real asset in the bullpen unless he can significantly reduce the number of free passes. Thursday's outing doesn't provide a great deal of encouragement on that front, but it's still very early and hopefully Gardenhire was right when he said the erratic performance might have been attributable to nerves.
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The following are examples of comments we've received on blog posts over the past few days. The first came from Twins Daily member roger responding to my post earlier this week about the Zumaya injury: Is the new Twins Daily going to be another site where everyone 'bad mouths' everything Mr. Ryan and the organization does? Your site has only been around for a couple days and I for one am already tired of all the bitching! ... Last time I checked, spring training is less than a week old. Lets give management time to evaluate what they have before we all jump on the sky is falling bandwagon...please! The second came from StarTribune.com user "njc264isback" on Seth's bullpen article there today: Honestly can't read any entries from Stohs without asking myself, "I wonder how many times Seth will apply to work for the Twins?" This guy is trying so hard to get in with them, I wish they'd just hire him already so I didn't have to read his cheerleading and apologizing for them anymore. Look, I'm a huge fan of reader interaction and I value pretty much every comment received – even the ones I vehemently disagree with. But I hate comments like these ones. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] When you've got a multi-contributor site like Twins Daily, you're inherently going to get a wide array of viewpoints, perspectives and styles. Different writers take different approaches with their craft. Seth's a guy who nearly always writes with a positive slant and uses lots of exclamation points. I pride myself on being a straight-shooter who looks at things objectively despite being a lifelong fan. I like to examine matters critically and I'm not shy about voicing my disagreement when I think it's warranted (although I would absolutely challenge the notion that my writing is consistently negative; of my last three posts, one laid out a realistic blueprint for the Twins to contend and one concluded that this year's bench should be more well rounded than past iterations). Our tones are very different, but neither should be shunned. We'll tackle topics from our own – sometimes conflicting – unique angles, and so will John and Parker. That's the beauty of this site. Readers will have the opportunity to take in a multitude of different viewpoints and are encouraged to impact the conversation by sharing their own. Use Twins Daily however you like. Share your feedback. Contribute. Just please, please don't endlessly complain about the tone of certain writers being too positive or negative. That's not a path to constructive discussion. If you really can't handle reading a little well-evidenced optimism or thoughtful criticism, authors' names are very clearly displayed on the front page and it's easy to be selective about what you choose to read.
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The following are examples of comments we've received on blog posts over the past few days. The first came from Twins Daily member roger responding to my post earlier this week about the Zumaya injury: The second came from StarTribune.com user "njc264isback" on Seth's bullpen article there today: Look, I'm a huge fan of reader interaction and I value pretty much every comment received – even the ones I vehemently disagree with. But I hate comments like these ones. When you've got a multi-contributor site like Twins Daily, you're inherently going to get a wide array of viewpoints, perspectives and styles. Different writers take different approaches with their craft. Seth's a guy who nearly always writes with a positive slant and uses lots of exclamation points. I pride myself on being a straight-shooter who looks at things objectively despite being a lifelong fan. I like to examine matters critically and I'm not shy about voicing my disagreement when I think it's warranted (although I would absolutely challenge the notion that my writing is consistently negative; of my last three posts, one laid out a realistic blueprint for the Twins to contend and one concluded that this year's bench should be more well rounded than past iterations). Our tones are very different, but neither should be shunned. We'll tackle topics from our own – sometimes conflicting – unique angles, and so will John and Parker. That's the beauty of this site. Readers will have the opportunity to take in a multitude of different viewpoints and are encouraged to impact the conversation by sharing their own. Use this site however you like. Share your feedback. Contribute. Just please, please don't endlessly complain about the tone of certain writers being too positive or negative. If you really can't handle reading a little well-evidenced optimism or thoughtful criticism, authors' names are very clearly displayed on the front page and it's easy to be selective about what you choose to read.
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The following are examples of comments we've received on blog posts over the past few days. The first came from Twins Daily member roger responding to my post earlier this week about the Zumaya injury: The second came from StarTribune.com user "njc264isback" on Seth's bullpen article there today: Look, I'm a huge fan of reader interaction and I value pretty much every comment received – even the ones I vehemently disagree with. But I hate comments like these ones. When you've got a multi-contributor site like Twins Daily, you're inherently going to get a wide array of viewpoints, perspectives and styles. Different writers take different approaches with their craft. Seth's a guy who nearly always writes with a positive slant and uses lots of exclamation points. I pride myself on being a straight-shooter who looks at things objectively despite being a lifelong fan. I like to examine matters critically and I'm not shy about voicing my disagreement when I think it's warranted (although I would absolutely challenge the notion that my writing is consistently negative; of my last three posts, one laid out a realistic blueprint for the Twins to contend and one concluded that this year's bench should be more well rounded than past iterations). Our tones are very different, but neither should be shunned. We'll tackle topics from our own – sometimes conflicting – unique angles, and so will John and Parker. That's the beauty of this site. Readers will have the opportunity to take in a multitude of different viewpoints and are encouraged to impact the conversation by sharing their own. Use this site however you like. Share your feedback. Contribute. Just please, please don't endlessly complain about the tone of certain writers being too positive or negative. If you really can't handle reading a little well-evidenced optimism or thoughtful criticism, authors' names are very clearly displayed on the front page and it's easy to be selective about what you choose to read.
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A year ago, the Twins went into the regular season with a bench consisting of Drew Butera, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert and Jim Thome. In other words: three guys who possessed only defensive value, and one who possessed only offensive value. It was a pretty limiting group, and the lack of flexibility caused headaches for Ron Gardenhire with starters shuttling in and out of the lineup all summer. Repko, Tolbert and Thome won't be back this year, and that's probably no coincidence. Nor is it coincidence that catcher J.R. Towles was signed during the offseason to give Butera some competition for the third catcher spot. The Twins will be hoping to boast a more well rounded bench this year, and that's definitely the right idea. The two candidates who could be considered locks, presuming they're healthy, would be Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes. Neither is a stand-out defender at any spot, but both can play multiple positions and have the potential to provide legitimate value with the bat. That's what you look for in a solid backup. If all goes to plan, Plouffe will draw occasion starts in the outfield and perhaps at DH, while Hughes will fill a Brendan Harris type role, subbing in against left-handers at various infield positions. Butera is probably close to a lock, as the Twins are almost guaranteed to carry a third catcher and they're familiar with him, but team officials have been reluctant to anoint him. It would seem that the door is open for Towles to swoop in with a big spring, and while he's been a Butera-esque hitter in his big-league career up to this point, he's certainly got more offensive potential. The end of the bench will be dictated by how many pitchers Gardenhire wants to carry, and by how comfortable he is with using Plouffe or Hughes at shortstop in a pinch. My assumption is that 13 pitchers will come north, since that's how they Twins have generally operated in the past and they've got a whopping 33 hurlers in camp this year (several of whom are out of options and one of whom is a Rule 5 draftee). If that's indeed the route they go, there's only room for one more bench player beyond the three mentioned above. Who will it be? That brings us to the matter of shortstop security. Jamey Carroll will need days off and could obviously get hurt, but I'd argue that the presence of Alexi Casilla along with Plouffe and Hughes – who both can play the position in an emergency – should be enough to offset any concerns. With that said, if Gardy is committed to having a true backup shortstop on his roster, he'll likely insist on carrying Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who started 59 games there as a rookie last year. Does it really make sense to carry Nishioka as a utility man, though? He's not an asset as a pinch hitter, or pinch runner, or defensive replacement. And relegating him to a bench spot would seemingly indicate that the Twins have given up on developing him into a starter despite their $15 million investment. Unless he shows significant advancement in his skills this spring, I think the Twins would be wise to start Nishioka in Rochester. That would leave an opening for the final bench slot, which could be used in a number of different ways. Sean Burroughs looks interesting as a potential platoon partner for Danny Valencia at third base and occasion fill-in at first and DH. Darin Mastroianni could fill the same fifth outfielder/pinch runner role that Jason Repko has in the past. Guys like Steven Pearce and Aaron Bates have the potential to provide some right-handed pop off the bench while serving as Justin Morneau insurance. The composition of the bench may seem like an afterthought, but those four players that opened the season there last year wound up totaling 866 plate appearances. It's important to round out the roster with players that can be assets in a variety of ways. Fortunately, there are a number of candidates to do so this time around. [ATTACH=CONFIG]221[/ATTACH]
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A year ago, the Twins went into the regular season with a bench consisting of Drew Butera, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert and Jim Thome. In other words: three guys who possessed only defensive value, and one who possessed only offensive value. It was a pretty limiting group, and the lack of flexibility caused headaches for Ron Gardenhire with starters shuttling in and out of the lineup all summer. Repko, Tolbert and Thome won't be back this year, and that's probably no coincidence. Nor is it coincidence that catcher J.R. Towles was signed during the offseason to give Butera some competition for the third catcher spot. The Twins will be hoping to boast a more well rounded bench this year, and that's definitely the right idea. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The two candidates who could be considered locks, presuming they're healthy, would be Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes. Neither is a stand-out defender at any spot, but both can play multiple positions and have the potential to provide legitimate value with the bat. That's what you look for in a solid backup. If all goes to plan, Plouffe will draw occasion starts in the outfield and perhaps at DH, while Hughes will fill a Brendan Harris type role, subbing in against left-handers at various infield positions. Butera is probably close to a lock, as the Twins are almost guaranteed to carry a third catcher and they're familiar with him, but team officials have been reluctant to anoint him. It would seem that the door is open for Towles to swoop in with a big spring, and while he's been a Butera-esque hitter in his big-league career up to this point, he's certainly got more offensive potential. The end of the bench will be dictated by how many pitchers Gardenhire wants to carry, and by how comfortable he is with using Plouffe or Hughes at shortstop in a pinch. My assumption is that 12 pitchers will come north, since that's how they Twins have generally operated in the past and they've got a whopping 33 hurlers in camp this year (several of whom are out of options and one of whom is a Rule 5 draftee). If that's indeed the route they go, there's only room for one more bench player beyond the three mentioned above. Who will it be? That brings us to the matter of shortstop security. Jamey Carroll will need days off and could obviously get hurt, but I'd argue that the presence of Alexi Casilla along with Plouffe and Hughes – who both can play the position in an emergency – should be enough to offset any concerns. With that said, if Gardy is committed to having a true backup shortstop on his roster, he'll likely insist on carrying Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who started 59 games there as a rookie last year. Does it really make sense to carry Nishioka as a utility man, though? He's not an asset as a pinch hitter, or pinch runner, or defensive replacement. And relegating him to a bench spot would seemingly indicate that the Twins have given up on developing him into a starter despite their $15 million investment. Unless he shows significant advancement in his skills this spring, I think the Twins would be wise to start Nishioka in Rochester. That would leave an opening for the final bench slot, which could be used in a number of different ways. Sean Burroughs looks interesting as a potential platoon partner for Danny Valencia at third base and occasion fill-in at first and DH. Darin Mastroianni could fill the same fifth outfielder/pinch runner role that Jason Repko has in the past. Guys like Steven Pearce and Aaron Bates have the potential to provide some right-handed pop off the bench while serving as Justin Morneau insurance. The composition of the bench may seem like an afterthought, but those four players that opened the season there last year wound up totaling 866 plate appearances. It's important to round out the roster with players that can be assets in a variety of ways. Fortunately, there are a number of candidates to do so this time around.
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In his efforts to augment a bullpen that last year ranked last in the league in ERA, FIP and WHIP, Terry Ryan's moves essentially amounted to re-signing Matt Capps and adding Joel Zumaya to replace the departed Joe Nathan. That was hardly a recipe for guaranteed substantial improvement, and now with Zumaya's unfortunate yet unsurprising injury news, Ryan's passive approach to addressing this unit in a buyer's market looks all the more irresponsible. With their sole bullpen pickup gone for the year, the Twins may react by trying to find another outside arm they can plug in. They'll now only have to pay Zumaya $400K, and his contract included incentives that escalated to $1.7M, so you'd have to figure they have $1.3M left in the budget to spend on a replacement. That amount would have been plenty to sign a reliable relief guy such as Chad Qualls or Todd Coffey earlier in the offseason, but unfortunately all those hurlers are now off the board. The free agent market is exceedingly thin at this point, whittled down to such names as Michael Wuertz and Danys Baez – neither of whom have been effective since 2009. A trade would appear to be the more palatable solution. There are some interesting players who might be available, the most notable of them being Koji Uehara of the Rangers. Owner of a 2.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 140-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past two seasons, Uehara is an elite right-handed reliever and Texas has been dangling him all winter. The problem is that he's set to earn $4 million this year, and it's hard to believe the Twins would stretch their budget that far given their reluctance to spend even a million on an additional arm to supplement the Zumaya signing. Then again, maybe this is the moment where the Twins finally put their money where their mouth is. They've claimed that they're serious about contending. They've claimed that there's wiggle room in their reduced budget, and that ownership is willing to add payroll over the course of the season. Well, then do it. Make a move and get a dependable right-handed arm for this bullpen, because right now it's tough to identify a single one. The time has come for Ryan to shed his past conservative tendencies and take an aggressive step aimed at putting his club in position for success. If he heads into the season with this current hodgepodge of bullpen question marks, and an inability to hold leads proves to be a crippling downfall for the Twins, all the good things Ryan has done during the offseason will be overshadowed by his baffling inactivity on the relief market. That would be a shame.
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In his efforts to augment a bullpen that last year ranked last in the league in ERA, FIP and WHIP, Terry Ryan's moves essentially amounted to re-signing Matt Capps and adding Joel Zumaya to replace the departed Joe Nathan. That was hardly a recipe for guaranteed substantial improvement, and now with Zumaya's unfortunate yet unsurprising injury news, Ryan's passive approach to addressing this unit in a buyer's market looks all the more irresponsible. With their sole bullpen pickup gone for the year, the Twins may react by trying to find another outside arm they can plug in. They'll now only have to pay Zumaya $400K, and his contract included incentives that escalated to $1.7M, so you'd have to figure they have $1.3M left in the budget to spend on a replacement. That amount would have been plenty to sign a reliable relief guy such as Chad Qualls or Todd Coffey earlier in the offseason, but unfortunately all those hurlers are now off the board. The free agent market is exceedingly thin at this point, whittled down to such names as Michael Wuertz and Danys Baez – neither of whom have been effective since 2009. A trade would appear to be the more palatable solution. There are some interesting players who might be available, the most notable of them being Koji Uehara of the Rangers. Owner of a 2.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 140-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past two seasons, Uehara is an elite right-handed reliever and Texas has been dangling him all winter. The problem is that he's set to earn $4 million this year, and it's hard to believe the Twins would stretch their budget that far given their reluctance to spend even a million on an additional arm to supplement the Zumaya signing. Then again, maybe this is the moment where the Twins finally put their money where their mouth is. They've claimed that they're serious about contending. They've claimed that there's wiggle room in their reduced budget, and that ownership is willing to add payroll over the course of the season. Well, then do it. Make a move and get a dependable right-handed arm for this bullpen, because right now it's tough to identify a single one. The time has come for Ryan to shed his past conservative tendencies and take an aggressive step aimed at putting his club in position for success. If he heads into the season with this current hodgepodge of bullpen question marks, and an inability to hold leads proves to be a crippling downfall for the Twins, all the good things Ryan has done during the offseason will be overshadowed by his baffling inactivity on the relief market. That would be a shame.
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In his efforts to augment a bullpen that last year ranked last in the league in ERA, FIP and WHIP, Terry Ryan's moves essentially amounted to re-signing Matt Capps and adding Joel Zumaya to replace the departed Joe Nathan. That was hardly a recipe for guaranteed substantial improvement, and now with Zumaya's unfortunate yet unsurprising injury news, Ryan's passive approach to addressing this unit in a buyer's market looks all the more irresponsible. With their sole bullpen pickup gone for the year, the Twins may react by trying to find another outside arm they can plug in. They'll now only have to pay Zumaya $400K, and his contract included incentives that escalated to $1.7M, so you'd have to figure they have $1.3M left in the budget to spend on a replacement. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That amount would have been plenty to sign a reliable relief guy such as Chad Qualls or Todd Coffey earlier in the offseason, but unfortunately all those hurlers are now off the board. The free agent market is exceedingly thin at this point, whittled down to such names as Michael Wuertz and Danys Baez – neither of whom have been effective since 2009. A trade would appear to be the more palatable solution. There are some interesting players who might be available, the most notable of them being Koji Uehara of the Rangers. Owner of a 2.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 140-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past two seasons, Uehara is an elite right-handed reliever and Texas has been dangling him all winter. The problem is that he's set to earn $4 million this year, and it's hard to believe the Twins would stretch their budget that far given their reluctance to spend even a million on an additional arm to supplement the Zumaya signing. Then again, maybe this is the moment where the Twins finally put their money where their mouth is. They've claimed that they're serious about contending. They've claimed that there's wiggle room in their reduced budget, and that ownership is willing to add payroll over the course of the season. Well, then do it. Make a move and get a dependable right-handed arm for this bullpen, because right now it's tough to identify a single one. The time has come for Ryan to shed his past conservative tendencies and take an aggressive step aimed at putting his club in position for success. If he heads into the season with this current hodgepodge of bullpen question marks, and an inability to hold leads proves to be a crippling downfall for the Twins, all the good things Ryan has done during the offseason will be overshadowed by his baffling inactivity on the relief market. That would be a shame.
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In my attempts to determine a plausible best-case scenario for this year's Twins team, I've struggled to come up with real-life examples to use for comparison. On the forum earlier this week, Twins Daily member sam.ekstrom pointed to the 2008 Twins as a potential "doppelganger" for the 2012 squad. I've got to say, I find this to be an encouraging model for a positive outcome if things break reasonably well. Now, to be clear, that 2008 team was by no means great. They won 88 games, were a middle-of-the-road club by most statistical measures and came within a game of the playoffs only by virtue of playing in a pretty bad division. But then, coming off a 99-loss season, these current Twins can't very well aspire for true greatness. Instead, they can try to follow the course that turned them from outsiders to contenders four years ago. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Expectations were low for the '08 Twins. They had finished 79-83 in 2007 – their worst mark in eight years – and had watched multiple franchise mainstays depart over the offseason. Yet, they went on to surprise the baseball world by pushing Chicago to a division tiebreaker game, and they didn't do it with outstanding pitching (they finished seventh out of 14 AL teams in ERA) or power hitting (last in the league with 111 homers). Instead, those Twins hit for average, ranking third in the AL at .279, and they were extremely opportunistic (.305/.380/.446 with runners in scoring position). Their pitching wasn't great, but it was good enough. Many point to this year's rotation as a crippling weakness, but take a look at the numbers from that club's starters and tell me that this year's bunch can't at least match them: Nick Blackburn: 33 GS, 11-11, 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP Scott Baker: 28 GS, 11-4, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP Kevin Slowey: 27 GS, 12-11, 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP Glen Perkins: 26 GS, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP Livan Hernandez: 23 GS, 10-8, 5.48 ERA, 1.63 WHIP Francisco Liriano: 14 GS, 6-4, 3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP Boof Bonser also made 12 starts and finished the year with an ERA near 6. This group was a beacon of neither durability (only Blackburn threw more than 173 innings) nor dominance (Liriano led all starters with a 7.9 K/9 rate and the Twins' staff as a whole averaged 6.1 whiffs per nine -- nearly identical to last year's 6.0). The 2008 starters were sufficiently effective because they threw strikes and benefited from solid defense. That's a formula that this year's rotation will seek to follow. Holding leads in the late innings is also important, and while the 2012 bullpen won't likely feature a performer as stellar as Joe Nathan, the overall unit should be able to match the effectiveness of an '08 group that ranked sixth in the AL in ERA, seventh in WHIP and 10th in K/9. From an offensive standpoint, this year's team will similarly have to find ways to push runs across without big power numbers. That 2008 group managed to finish third the AL in runs scored despite ranking last in homers, thanks largely to their ability to hit for average. That ought to be a strength this year for a lineup that will feature Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere and Jamey Carroll, among others. Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Danny Valencia will need to chip in some pop and drive in runs, but they've shown the ability to do so in the past. The point of all this is to say that the Twins don't necessarily need Mauer to return to '09 form, or Morneau to go back to hitting 30 home runs, or Liriano to rack up 200 strikeouts. Rather, they can rely on a recipe that's worked for them in the past, which is hitting for a high average, converting on scoring opportunities, throwing strikes, playing strong defense, and hoping that a high-80s win total will be enough to give them a shot in the AL Central.
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In my attempts to determine a plausible best-case scenario for this year's Twins team, I've struggled to come up with real-life examples to use for comparison. On the forum earlier this week, Twins Daily member sam.ekstrom pointed to the 2008 Twins as a potential "doppelganger" for the 2012 squad. I've got to say, I find this to be an encouraging model for a positive outcome if things break reasonably well. Now, to be clear, that 2008 team was by no means great. They won 88 games, were a middle-of-the-road club by most statistical measures and came within a game of the playoffs only by virtue of playing in a pretty bad division. But then, coming off a 99-loss season, these current Twins can't very well aspire for true greatness. Instead, they can try to follow the course that turned them from outsiders to contenders four years ago. Expectations were low for the '08 Twins. They had finished 79-83 in 2007 – their worst mark in eight years – and had watched multiple franchise mainstays depart over the offseason. Yet, they went on to surprise the baseball world by pushing Chicago to a division tiebreaker game, and they didn't do it with outstanding pitching (they finished seventh out of 14 AL teams in ERA) or power hitting (last in the league with 111 homers). Instead, those Twins hit for average, ranking third in the AL at .279, and they were extremely opportunistic (.305/.380/.446 with runners in scoring position). Their pitching wasn't great, but it was good enough. Many point to this year's rotation as a crippling weakness, but take a look at the numbers from that club's starters and tell me that this year's bunch can't at least match them: Nick Blackburn: 33 GS, 11-11, 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP Scott Baker: 28 GS, 11-4, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP Kevin Slowey: 27 GS, 12-11, 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP Glen Perkins: 26 GS, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP Livan Hernandez: 23 GS, 10-8, 5.48 ERA, 1.63 WHIP Francisco Liriano: 14 GS, 6-4, 3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP Boof Bonser also made 12 starts and finished the year with an ERA near 6. This group was a beacon of neither durability (only Blackburn threw more than 173 innings) nor dominance (Liriano led all starters with a 7.9 K/9 rate and the Twins' staff as a whole averaged 6.1 whiffs per nine -- nearly identical to last year's 6.0). The 2008 starters were sufficiently effective because they threw strikes and benefited from solid defense. That's a formula that this year's rotation will seek to follow. Holding leads in the late innings is also important, and while the 2012 bullpen won't likely feature a performer as stellar as Joe Nathan, the overall unit should be able to match the effectiveness of an '08 group that ranked sixth in the AL in ERA, seventh in WHIP and 10th in K/9. From an offensive standpoint, this year's team will similarly have to find ways to push runs across without big power numbers. That 2008 group managed to finish third the AL in runs scored despite ranking last in homers, thanks largely to their ability to hit for average. That ought to be a strength this year for a lineup that will feature Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere and Jamey Carroll, among others. Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Danny Valencia will need to chip in some pop and drive in runs, but they've shown the ability to do so in the past. The point of all this is to say that the Twins don't necessarily need Mauer to return to '09 form, or Morneau to go back to hitting 30 home runs, or Liriano to rack up 200 strikeouts. Rather, they can rely on a recipe that's worked for them in the past, which is hitting for a high average, converting on scoring opportunities, throwing strikes, playing strong defense, and hoping that a high-80s win total will be enough to give them a shot in the AL Central. [ATTACH=CONFIG]185[/ATTACH]
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Eight months after suffering a concussion in a home plate collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, Denard Span still says he has "bad days" in which his head doesn't feel quite right, but he has no way of knowing whether or not those symptoms stem from the incident in Kansas City. [ATTACH=CONFIG]171[/ATTACH]Span's situation is unique, in that he had dealt with migraines and vertigo back in 2009, long before taking that blow to the head on June 3rd last season. At the time, those issues were linked to an inner-ear condition. His current maladies might be attributable more to that problem than the concussion, but whatever the case, it's concerning that a 27-year-old continues to have – as he puts it – "days where I don't feel my best and have to find a way to fight through." Fighting through has been a buzz word for Span this spring. Clearly, he's a competitor and doesn't want to let this bring him down. But playing through symptoms is not always the best idea, for player or team. We saw that last year when Span went 2-for-35 in a two-week stretch after pushing himself to return, and when Justin Morneau struggled all season before re-triggering concussion symptoms on a diving attempt in the field in August. The Twins are hopeful that Span, who was getting on base at a .367 clip last year prior to the concussion, can combine with Jamey Carroll, who has posted a .368 OBP over the past two seasons in Los Angeles, to become a dynamic force at the top of the lineup, creating plenty of opportunities for Morneau, Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. But if the bad days don't go away, the Twins will need to have a contingency plan in place – preferably someone with the ability to reach base at a solid clip, as they're looking to distance themselves from a 2011 season in which they got a .319 OBP from the leadoff spot and a .289 OBP from the No. 2 spot. This may have factored into the decision to bring Darin Mastroianni into the organization earlier this month. Mastroianni owns a .370 OBP in the minors, though there's plenty of room to doubt whether his on-base skills will translate to the big leagues. Joe Benson is another candidate to fill a spot in the outfield and at the top of the lineup should Span be sidelined. Benson got on base at a .388 clip in New Britain last year, drawing 56 walks in 472 plate appearances, but he looked totally overmatched in a late stint in Minnesota, drawing just three walks against 21 strikeouts in 74 plate appearances. When healthy and doing his thing, Span is an integral cog at the top of the Twins lineup, and his production is awfully tough to replace. When Mauer won the MVP with 96 RBI in 2009, there was no player he drove in more often than Span, who finished that season with career highs in OBP (.392) and runs (97). The success of Mauer and the rest of the lineup's run producers will be largely dependent on the success of the table-setters. If bad days continue to haunt Span this season, someone's going to need to step up and get on base in his stead, otherwise it's going to mean plenty of bad days for the Twins' lineup.
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Eight months after suffering a concussion in a home plate collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, Denard Span still says he has "bad days" in which his head doesn't feel quite right, but he has no way of knowing whether or not those symptoms stem from the incident in Kansas City. Span's situation is unique, in that he had dealt with migraines and vertigo back in 2009, long before taking that blow to the head on June 3rd last season. At the time, those issues were linked to an inner-ear condition. His current maladies might be attributable more to that problem than the concussion, but whatever the case, it's concerning that a 27-year-old continues to have – as he puts it – "days where I don't feel my best and have to find a way to fight through." [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fighting through has been a buzz word for Span this spring. Clearly, he's a competitor and doesn't want to let this bring him down. But playing through symptoms is not always the best idea, for player or team. We saw that last year when Span went 2-for-35 in a two-week stretch after pushing himself to return, and when Justin Morneau struggled all season before re-triggering concussion symptoms on a diving attempt in the field in August. The Twins are hopeful that Span, who was getting on base at a .367 clip last year prior to the concussion, can combine with Jamey Carroll, who has posted a .368 OBP over the past two seasons in Los Angeles, to become a dynamic force at the top of the lineup, creating plenty of opportunities for Morneau, Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham. But if the bad days don't go away, the Twins will need to have a contingency plan in place – preferably someone with the ability to reach base at a solid clip, as they're looking to distance themselves from a 2011 season in which they got a .319 OBP from the leadoff spot and a .289 OBP from the No. 2 spot. This may have factored into the decision to bring Darin Mastroianni into the organization earlier this month. Mastroianni owns a .370 OBP in the minors, though there's plenty of room to doubt whether his on-base skills will translate to the big leagues. Joe Benson is another candidate to fill a spot in the outfield and at the top of the lineup should Span be sidelined. Benson got on base at a .388 clip in New Britain last year, drawing 56 walks in 472 plate appearances, but he looked totally overmatched in a late stint in Minnesota, drawing just three walks against 21 strikeouts in 74 plate appearances. When healthy and doing his thing, Span is an integral cog at the top of the Twins lineup, and his production is awfully tough to replace. When Mauer won the MVP with 96 RBI in 2009, there was no player he drove in more often than Span, who finished that season with career highs in OBP (.392) and runs (97). The success of Mauer and the rest of the lineup's run producers will be largely dependent on the success of the table-setters. If bad days continue to haunt Span this season, someone's going to need to step up and get on base in his stead, otherwise it's going to mean plenty of bad days for the Twins' lineup.
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The Twins invited a staggering 66 players to big-league camp this year, which seems more than a little excessive when you consider that only 25 will make the Opening Day roster and very few of those spots are legitimately up for grabs. So why the prodigious assembly at Lee County Sports Complex? I'd guess it has something to do with the coaching staff wanting a chance to familiarize themselves with as many guys as possible. Forty-five different players either took a swing or threw a pitch for the Twins last year, and while the team is hoping for better health this time around, nothing is guaranteed and they'll want to know what's going to be available when help is needed. Today, I'll take a look at some of the positions and players worth keeping an eye on over the next six weeks, eventually taking a stab at projecting the Opening Day roster. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Position Battles Left Field This job is Ben Revere's to lose, and it would probably take a Herculean effort from Trevor Plouffe to unseat the 23-year-old speedster as the regular starter. With that said, if he hits and looks sharp defensively, Plouffe could go a long way toward increasing his playing time in the early going. If he wants to take over the gig on a more full-time basis, he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts and improve against right-handed pitching. Backup Catcher The Twins insist that they view Ryan Doumit as Joe Mauer's top backup, but since Doumit is likely to spend significant time at DH and other positions, they'll need another player who can help relieve Mauer's workload behind the plate. Chances are good that it will be Drew Butera, given that defense is the top consideration for this role, but Chris Herrmann, Danny Lehmann and J.R. Towles could make things interesting with big springs. Utility Infielder If his shoulder heals, Luke Hughes is a virtual lock to make the team given that he's out of options and provides Gardenhire with a flexible right-handed bench bat. That probably leaves room for one more backup infielder. If the ability to play shortstop is a requirement -- and this could very well be the case since Hughes can't play there -- Tsuyoshi Nishioka is basically the only option. If the Twins are willing to get creative when Jamey Carroll needs a day off from short -- say, shifting Alexi Casilla over there and starting Hughes at second -- they'll have more choices. Perhaps Sean Burroughs could be carried as a platoon mate for Danny Valencia at third? Maybe Chris Parmelee comes north to spell Justin Morneau at first and fill in at DH? Final Bullpen Spots Matt Capps is going to be the closer. Glen Perkins and Joel Zumaya (if healthy) will be setting him up, while Brian Duensing will serve as a left-handed specialist. Beyond those four, nothing is assured in the bullpen, leaving two or three spots up for grabs among 25 pitchers in camp. I'd say it's extremely likely that Anthony Swarzak lands one of those spots, as he's out of options and performed well as a reliever last season. Jeff Gray and Matt Maloney, who were brought in during the offseason, are both out of options, which may give them an upper hand, though neither has much of a track record. Alex Burnett has struggled in each of the past two years, but gathered valuable big-league experience. The Twins liked Terry Doyle enough to select him in the Rule 5 draft, and if they don't bring him north they'll either need to send him back to the White Sox or work out a trade. Ultimately, the winners of these last bullpen spots may be dictated by circumstance more than performance, although I hope that isn't the case. Players to Watch Brian Dozier His chances of making the Opening Day roster are very slim, because both starting middle infield positions are spoken for and the Twins aren't going to carry him as a backup, but Dozier will be looking to make a strong impression and should get ample opportunity to show what he can do in March. His defense at shortstop will be under the microscope, since his ability to stick at that position will heavily impact his long-term value. J.R. Towles Last year Towles hit .300 with a .924 OPS in exhibition play for the Astros, but the success didn't carry over to the regular season, where he posted a .184/.256/.293 line in 54 games. Hitting when it counts has always been a challenge for the former top prospect, but he'll be worth keeping an eye on as a legitimate contender to replace Drew Butera in the second/third catcher role. Carlos Gutierrez Gutierrez has long held promise as a back-end reliever with a hard and heavy sinker, but command has been an issue. Over the winter he reportedly added a cutter to his repertoire. We'll see how that plays against live hitters. Jared Burton Burton was a pretty solid reliever for the Reds several years ago, before various injuries ravaged his arm and sunk his velocity. If he's healthy and throwing in the mid-90s again, he's got serious sleeper potential in the bullpen. Projected Opening Day Roster STARTERS C: Joe Mauer 1B: Justin Morneau 2B: Alexi Casilla 3B: Danny Valencia SS: Jamey Carroll LF: Ben Revere CF: Denard Span RF: Josh Willingham DH: Ryan Doumit BENCH C: Drew Butera IF: Luke Hughes IF: Tsuyoshi Nishioka OF: Trevor Plouffe ROTATION SP: Carl Pavano SP: Francisco Liriano SP: Scott Baker SP: Nick Blackburn SP: Jason Marquis BULLPEN RP: Matt Capps RP: Glen Perkins RP: Joel Zumaya RP: Brian Duensing RP: Anthony Swarzak RP: Alex Burnett RP: Terry Doyle
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The Twins invited a staggering 66 players to big-league camp this year, which seems more than a little excessive when you consider that only 25 will make the Opening Day roster and very few of those spots are legitimately up for grabs. So why the prodigious assembly at Lee County Sports Complex? I'd guess it has something to do with the coaching staff wanting a chance to familiarize themselves with as many guys as possible. Forty-five different players either took a swing or threw a pitch for the Twins last year, and while the team is hoping for better health this time around, nothing is guaranteed and they'll want to know what's going to be available when help is needed. Today, I'll take a look at some of the positions and players worth keeping an eye on over the next six weeks, eventually taking a stab at projecting the Opening Day roster. Position Battles Left Field This job is Ben Revere's to lose, and it would probably take a Herculean effort from Trevor Plouffe to unseat the 23-year-old speedster as the regular starter. With that said, if he hits and looks sharp defensively, Plouffe could go a long way toward increasing his playing time in the early going. If he wants to take over the gig on a more full-time basis, he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts and improve against right-handed pitching. Backup Catcher The Twins insist that they view Ryan Doumit as Joe Mauer's top backup, but since Doumit is likely to spend significant time at DH and other positions, they'll need another player who can help relieve Mauer's workload behind the plate. Chances are good that it will be Drew Butera, given that defense is the top consideration for this role, but Chris Herrmann, Danny Lehmann and J.R. Towles could make things interesting with big springs. Utility Infielder If his shoulder heals, Luke Hughes is a virtual lock to make the team given that he's out of options and provides Gardenhire with a flexible right-handed bench bat. That probably leaves room for one more backup infielder. If the ability to play shortstop is a requirement -- and this could very well be the case since Hughes can't play there -- Tsuyoshi Nishioka is basically the only option. If the Twins are willing to get creative when Jamey Carroll needs a day off from short -- say, shifting Alexi Casilla over there and starting Hughes at second -- they'll have more choices. Perhaps Sean Burroughs could be carried as a platoon mate for Danny Valencia at third? Maybe Chris Parmelee comes north to spell Justin Morneau at first and fill in at DH? Final Bullpen Spots Matt Capps is going to be the closer. Glen Perkins and Joel Zumaya (if healthy) will be setting him up, while Brian Duensing will serve as a left-handed specialist. Beyond those four, nothing is assured in the bullpen, leaving two or three spots up for grabs among 25 pitchers in camp. I'd say it's extremely likely that Anthony Swarzak lands one of those spots, as he's out of options and performed well as a reliever last season. Jeff Gray and Matt Maloney, who were brought in during the offseason, are both out of options, which may give them an upper hand, though neither has much of a track record. Alex Burnett has struggled in each of the past two years, but gathered valuable big-league experience. The Twins liked Terry Doyle enough to select him in the Rule 5 draft, and if they don't bring him north they'll either need to send him back to the White Sox or work out a trade. Ultimately, the winners of these last bullpen spots may be dictated by circumstance more than performance, although I hope that isn't the case. Players to Watch Brian Dozier His chances of making the Opening Day roster are very slim, because both starting middle infield positions are spoken for and the Twins aren't going to carry him as a backup, but Dozier will be looking to make a strong impression and should get ample opportunity to show what he can do in March. His defense at shortstop will be under the microscope, since his ability to stick at that position will heavily impact his long-term value. J.R. Towles Last year Towles hit .300 with a .924 OPS in exhibition play for the Astros, but the success didn't carry over to the regular season, where he posted a .184/.256/.293 line in 54 games. Hitting when it counts has always been a challenge for the former top prospect, but he'll be worth keeping an eye on as a legitimate contender to replace Drew Butera in the second/third catcher role. Carlos Gutierrez Gutierrez has long held promise as a back-end reliever with a hard and heavy sinker, but command has been an issue. Over the winter he reportedly added a cutter to his repertoire. We'll see how that plays against live hitters. Jared Burton Burton was a pretty solid reliever for the Reds several years ago, before various injuries ravaged his arm and sunk his velocity. If he's healthy and throwing in the mid-90s again, he's got serious sleeper potential in the bullpen. Projected Opening Day Roster STARTERS C: Joe Mauer 1B: Justin Morneau 2B: Alexi Casilla 3B: Danny Valencia SS: Jamey Carroll LF: Ben Revere CF: Denard Span RF: Josh Willingham DH: Ryan Doumit BENCH C: Drew Butera IF: Luke Hughes IF: Tsuyoshi Nishioka OF: Trevor Plouffe ROTATION SP: Carl Pavano SP: Francisco Liriano SP: Scott Baker SP: Nick Blackburn SP: Jason Marquis BULLPEN RP: Matt Capps RP: Glen Perkins RP: Joel Zumaya RP: Brian Duensing RP: Anthony Swarzak RP: Alex Burnett RP: Terry Doyle [ATTACH=CONFIG]152[/ATTACH]
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When he was a prospect coming up through the minors, Ben Revere showed promise as a lightning-fast outfielder who could make things happen with his legs and with his glove. He was drafted in the first round in 2007, put himself on the map by leading the Midwest League with a .379 average in 2008 and graduated to the majors by the age of 22. Revere's projected value in the bigs is overstated by minor-league numbers that include a .326/.385/.408 slash line and 154 stolen bases over parts of five seasons. His ability to terrorize opponents on the base paths will only be an asset if he's getting on at a steady clip, and since he's not going to be able to do so by coaxing walks, his offensive value will largely hinge on his ability to hit for average. While rising through the Twins' system, Revere never walked in more than 8 percent of his plate appearances at any level. It's not hard to see why; he likes to swing and put the ball in play, and pitchers at higher levels aren't afraid to throw him strikes on three-ball counts since he's virtually incapable of hitting the ball over an outfielder's head. This was particularly evident last year, when Revere drew a free pass only 32 times in 622 plate appearances between Triple-A and the majors. For reference, that 5 percent walk rate is only one point higher than Delmon Young's career mark. It'd be nice if Revere walked a little more often, but he is who he is and that's not likely to change. Therefore, he'll need to hit his way on base in order to maximize his impact. That was never really a problem for Revere the prospect, who batted over .300 at every single minor-league stop, but last year he got a cold dose of reality as big-league pitchers held him to a .267 average. He had stretches where the hits would fall in, and he did finish the season strong, batting .394 with seven multi-hit efforts in his final 15 games. Revere gets out of the box and down the line fast enough that he can frequently leg out singles on weak contact. Still, batting over .300 in a major-league season is a tough task, and it's near impossible when you're beating the ball into the ground nearly 70 percent of the time and when those grounders often don't make it past the pitcher's mound. As a defensive specialist and No. 9 hitter, Revere doesn't carry lofty offensive expectations, but last year's .619 OPS simply won't cut it for a regular. There's not much reason to expect a significant boost in walks or extra-base hits, so the key to offensive success for the young outfielder will be an increase in hard grounders that skip past gloves and line drives that drop in front of outfielders, at the expense of those weak infield rollers.

