Nick Nelson

When the Twins signed Jason Marquis to a one-year, $3 million contract back in December, Terry Ryan offered this description: "He's a groundball machine and he throws the ball over the plate." That characterization was only partially accurate. While the sinker-balling right-hander has induced grounders at an extreme rate, painting him as a consistent strike-thrower never passed the sniff test. As Aaron Gleeman astutely noted when the Twins signed him, Marquis' career walk rate is identical to that of Francisco Liriano, who is no one's idea of a control artist. Sure enough, the 33-year-old's control problems have been on full display this spring. After an erratic outing today in which he walked two and hit a batter in four-plus innings, Marquis leads the Twins with nine walks (against only five strikeouts) and three wild pitches in 12 2/3 frames, contributing to an ugly 8.53 ERA. When he stumbled in his Twins debut, the hope was that Marquis would rebound rapidly and start to settle in as March progressed. Unfortunately, we haven't seen that. He's routinely falling behind hitters, resulting in multiple walks in every start and tons of hits allowed. Through four turns, Marquis owns a 2.21 WHIP and still hasn't been able to record an out in the fifth inning. He's well behind where he needs to be at this point and the coaching staff has to be growing concerned. With three weeks left to go until Opening Day, he's going to need to work closely with Rick Anderson to get the command issues sorted out. [ATTACH=CONFIG]352[/ATTACH]

Likely Starter: Ben Revere 2011 Stats: .267/.310/.309, 0 HR, 30 RBI, 56 R, 34/43 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]346[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Trevor Plouffe, Darin Mastroianni, Brian Dinkelman Last year the Twins were the least effective team in all of baseball at converting batted balls into outs. With a pitching staff that allows a ton of contact, that's an enormously troubling statistic. Lining up Ben Revere as the regular left fielder should certainly benefit the Twins on the defensive front. He and Denard Span can team up to track down almost everything hit in the air to the left side of Target Field's spacious outfield. But how much are the Twins giving up offensively by going with Revere as their starter in left? And if he doesn't start reaching base with greater frequency, how long will his leash be? I've seen plenty of skepticism regarding Revere's long-term outlook, and it's not hard to see why. Lacking power, patience and arm strength, his skill set is clearly limiting – particularly for a corner outfielder, which is what he'll be as long as Span is holding down center. Yet, I'm pretty bullish on Revere, for a number of reasons. While his weaknesses are well established, he also has some promising strengths. He's a contact hitter who gets out of the box and down the line with extreme quickness, and he is blazing fast. He set a Twins rookie record with 34 stolen bases last year, and his range in the outfield is truly spectacular. At 23, I think he still has room to grow. Even if he's one of the best defensive left fielders in the league, the .619 OPS that Revere posted in 2011 simply won't cut it. He needs to elevate that number, and since he's not likely to start drawing walks or racking up extra-base hits, he'll need to do it by significantly improving his batting average. He can help himself in that area by lifting the ball more (his 68.5 percent ground ball rate led the Twins last year) and bunting for hits (he's only attempted 16 career bunts). The alternative to Revere in left, when the Twins face a tough lefty or when Ron Gardenhire wants more offense, will be Trevor Plouffe. A first-round draft pick back in 2004, Plouffe had a breakout season in the minors last year, posting a 1.019 OPS in Rochester, and he showed decent pop during his time in the majors with 27 extra-base hits in 320 plate appearances. Defensively Plouffe is a major question mark, given that he'd never played in the outfield prior to 2011, and his bat is hardly a proven commodity. He does offer some interesting offensive upside, though, and at the very least he's a nice guy to have around as a pseudo-platoon partner for Revere. I'm probably higher than most on both Plouffe and Revere, but there's no denying the fact that one is a converted shortstop who never hit much prior to last year and one profiles as a prototypical fourth outfielder. It's difficult to envision left field as a major strength between these two, but both are young players who offer very different benefits and I'm fairly intrigued to see how this little experiment will turn out. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Revere: .280/.330/.340, 1 HR, 30 RBI

Likely Starter: Jamey Carroll 2011 Stats: .290/.359/.347, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 52 R, 10/10 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]322[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon Welcome Jamey Carroll, the latest passenger on Minnesota's never-ending shortstop carousel. Since Cristian Guzman's departure, the Twins have opened with six different players at the position in seven seasons. Their Opening Day shortstops have ended up averaging 68 starts there, and only one – Jason Bartlett in 2007 – actually started over 100 games in a season. At this point, the Twins would settle for even short-term stability, and that's what they're seeking in Carroll, a 38-year-old journeyman signed to a two-year deal during the offseason. The words "stability" and "journeyman" might seem odd when coupled in the same sentence, especially when the player in question is almost 40. Indeed, Carroll – who didn't reach the majors until he was 28 – is now with his fifth organization and has profiled as a part-time utility man for most of his career. These facts leave plenty of room to question whether he can be the steady veteran rock that the Twins desperately need him to be. But if you look at his most recent history – and that seems fair – it isn't difficult to see why the Twins decided to go with him. Although he had made only 46 career starts at shortstop prior to joining Los Angeles in 2010, he exceeded that number in both of his seasons with the Dodgers and was often used as a regular there when Rafael Furcal wasn't available. Carroll's offensive numbers over those two seasons were respectable enough, as he made up for a complete lack of pop (.054 Isolated Power) by hitting .290 both years and getting on base at a .368 overall clip. It will be interesting to see whether he can maintain those numbers while batting second regularly in an AL lineup, but if he can he'll be a serviceable hitter. Defense is the bigger question mark. There are differing opinions on how he'll hold up at the toughest infield position full-time, but clearly he wasn't thought of as a shortstop prior to arriving in Los Angeles at age 36. Even in the minors, Carroll played nearly twice as many games at second than at short – that just doesn't happen with great middle infield defenders. It's possible that the veteran has turned a corner and improved his skills enough to earn the increased tread at shortstop over the past couple seasons, but that seems unlikely for a player in his late 30s. I'd guess that more than anything it was his level of experience, his reputation as a good clubhouse presence and his almost non-existent injury history that served as impetuses for Terry Ryan to take the plunge early in the offseason. Those aren't insignificant factors, but none of them make Carroll particularly likely to excel as a full-time major-league shortstop here in the twilight of his career. Of course, the Twins would settle for a guy who stays healthy and doesn't kick the ball around given the disaster that took place last year. What's alarming is that if Carroll doesn't last, we may be looking at a similarly painful situation this summer, because the depth at this position is brutal. Who else can play shortstop for the Twins? Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Trevor Plouffe got their chances last year and proved to be defensive liabilities. Ryan has stated that the Alexi Casilla experiment at short last year "didn't really work out." Who else is there? Brian Dozier, who hasn't played above Double-A and is considered by many to be destined for second? Pedro Florimon, the offseason waiver pickup with a .676 OPS in the minors and 26 errors in Double-A last year? The Twins are trying their luck with a 38-year-old career utility man as their starting shortstop, and all of his backup options appear to either belong at second base, in the minors, or both. The carousel moves on, as this organization's continued inability to properly address the most important position on the diamond keeps on coming around to haunt them. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Carroll: .260/.335/.305, 0 HR, 20 RBI

Likely Starter: Danny Valencia 2011 Stats: .246/.294/.383, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 63 R, 2/8 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]314[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Luke Hughes, Sean Burroughs, Steve Pearce, Tsuyoshi Nishioka With a lineup that will feature as many as five players who pose virtually no threat to hit the ball over the fence, the Twins are going to be heavily reliant on a few bats in the middle of the lineup to produce some pop in 2012. Among the incumbents, the only player who even reached double digits in home runs last year is Danny Valencia. He led the Twins in RBI and ranked second in homers, though that spoke more to the general struggles of the offense than to his success. Make no mistake: the Twins need Valencia's power. But in order to win over a coaching staff that seemingly soured on him somewhat last year, he'll need to master some of the more basic elements of his game. After an impressive debut in 2010, the third baseman was noticeably worse both in the field and at the plate last year. The hitting struggles are less worrisome – for reasons I'll address momentarily – but Ron Gardenhire will not tolerate a passive approach on ground balls. If Valencia doesn't start doing a better job of keeping his head down when moving laterally and aggressively charging slow rollers, he'll start giving way to someone who will, at least one a part-time basis. I have little doubt of that. If he does show improvement on the defensive side, more closely resembling the form he showed during his rookie campaign, he's poised to be a solid regular and key right-handed bat in the lineup. Although his OPS dropped by 120 points from 2010 to 2011, Valencia remained largely the same hitter: aggressive and pull-happy with enough strength to place the ball in the left field bleachers in his home yard. His tendency to pull the ball became more pronounced last year, contributing to a dramatic drop in batting average. There's a give-and-take there; turning on the ball has proven to be the best bet for a righty hitter to clear the Target Field fence and nearly all of Valencia's 22 career homers have gone to straightaway left. His desire to hit for power should not necessarily be discouraged, but swinging for the seats can breed bad habits. He needs to find a balance. If he can accomplish that while sharpening up in the field, Valencia is one of the few players Twins fans won't have to worry about in 2012, especially considering that he's a rare example of a guy that doesn't carry major injury concerns into the season. If some of his negative patterns from last season persist, however, the third-year infielder will need to start worrying about losing playing time to the likes of Luke Hughes or Sean Burroughs. By all accounts, Valencia is determined not to let that happen, and is entering this season with increased openness to coaching advice and adjustments. There's no question that he's got the talent and confidence to succeed in the majors. I expect a solid if unspectacular campaign. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Valencia: .280/.330/.430, 15 HR, 80 RBI

Likely Starter: Alexi Casilla 2011 Stats: .260/.322/.368 [ATTACH=CONFIG]302[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Luke Hughes, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Brian Dinkelman, Brian Dozier We've been down this road before. Alexi Casilla was the Opening Day starter at second base in 2009, and at shortstop last year. In neither instance did he hang on for long. With a career .185/.232/.219 hitting line in April, the Dominican infielder has made a habit of stumbling out of the gates, and there's no question that it's hurt him. When a player shows no signs of life early in the season, fans are quick to pass judgment and coaches begin looking at other options. Most would agree that Casilla has the tools to be a starting middle infielder in the big leagues. He's got the athleticism, quickness and arm strength to hold his own defensively, and he's shown flashes of competence at the plate. Putting it all together for extended periods of time has been a challenge, but the Twins are giving him another chance this year. In all likelihood, it'll be his last chance. After struggling through a putrid first month last year, Casilla hit .281/.344/.407 the rest of the way. The Twins are hoping he can approach that sort of production this time around, and with a modest a price tag of $1.4 million, he's worth the gamble. He can't be relied upon to stay in the lineup all year though, given that he's never even made it to the 100-game mark before, so depth at this position will be key. Luke Hughes figures to fill in at second from time to time; he offers some offensive upside and will likely pinch-hit for Casilla in tight games. Tsuyoshi Nishioka would be a somewhat capable backup if he makes the roster. In the event of a significant injury to Casilla, the Twins might call up Brian Dozier and hand him the reigns. All in all, there are a number of solid options to plug in at second. For that reason, and because they've been around the block with Casilla several times before, the leash might be shorter than ever. Another horrible April, combined with a quick start for Dozier in Rochester or some early flashes from Hughes, could put Casilla on the hot seat quickly. With that being said, he may benefit from lowered expectations; as the No. 8 hitter, all the Twins need him to do is hit a little bit and make plays in the field. If he can stay focused and healthy, there's no reason to believe he can't do that. He'll have no shortage of motivation, as this is a pivotal year in the 27-year-old's career. Predicted Hitting Line for Casilla: .270/.330/.350, 3 HR, 30 RBI

Yeah, it's only the second week of March. But early in spring training, positive signs have been hard to come by for this offense. Today at Hammond Stadium, the Twins snapped a string of 27 consecutive scoreless innings, but did so without a run-scoring hit. Their two runs both came on bases-loaded walks. The latter took place with two outs in the ninth inning, drawing the Twins within a run of the Cardinals before Rene Tosoni grounded out to second on the first pitch of the next at-bat to end the game. Aye, aye, aye. The Twins, who haven't collected an extra-base hit since last weekend, continue to look stagnant at the plate. Only one player finished with multiple hits on Friday, and it was Wilkin Ramirez, a non-roster invitee who singled in his two plate appearances after relieving Brian Dinkelman in left field. On the pitching side, Jason Marquis got the start for the Twins and allowed one run over three innings. Certainly an improvement over his first outing, but with only 20 of his 39 pitches going for strikes, he's leaving plenty to be desired in the control department. Glen Perkins struck out two in a perfect fourth inning – his first appearance since signing a new three-year deal – while Matt Capps was tagged with the loss after giving up a home run to Rafael Furcal in the fifth, though he also induced a pair of swinging strikeouts. The Twins' record in Grapefruit League play now sits at 3-5.

Yeah, it's only the second week of March. But early in spring training, positive signs have been hard to come by for this offense. Today at Hammond Stadium, the Twins snapped a string of 27 consecutive scoreless innings, but did so without a run-scoring hit. Their two runs both came on bases-loaded walks. The latter took place with two outs in the ninth inning, drawing the Twins within a run of the Cardinals before Rene Tosoni grounded out to second on the first pitch of the next at-bat to end the game. Aye, aye, aye. The Twins, who haven't collected an extra-base hit since last weekend, continue to look stagnant at the plate. Only one player finished with multiple hits on Friday, and it was Wilkin Ramirez, a non-roster invitee who singled in his two plate appearances after relieving Brian Dinkelman in left field. On the pitching side, Jason Marquis got the start for the Twins and allowed one run over three innings. Certainly an improvement over his first outing, but with only 20 of his 39 pitches going for strikes, he's leaving plenty to be desired in the control department. Glen Perkins struck out two in a perfect fourth inning – his first appearance since signing a new three-year deal – while Matt Capps was tagged with the loss after giving up a home run to Rafael Furcal in the fifth, though he also induced a pair of swinging strikeouts. The Twins' record in Grapefruit League play now sits at 3-5.

Likely Starter: Justin Morneau 2011 Stats: .227/.285/.333, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 19 R, 0/0 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]279[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Joe Mauer, Luke Hughes, Ryan Doumit, Chris Parmelee, Sean Burroughs, Steve Pearce, Aaron Bates Through a couple weeks of camp, this much can be said for Justin Morneau: he hasn't raised any warning flags yet. He's been able to get through all his workouts, he's participated in a few exhibition contests and he laced a hard double in yesterday's 'B' game that impressed spectators. But we've been through this song and dance before. A year ago Morneau made it through spring training without issue, then endured a nightmare season that was marred by numerous injuries and cut short in August by persisting concussion complications, the effects of which lingered deep into the offseason. All of this has fans wondering: will we soon reach a point where Morneau can play no more? The first baseman has come to terms with the reality of his situation, and candidly admitted to reporters recently that if concussion symptoms are a problem again this year, he'll probably have to call it quits. He's not going to be doing himself or the team any favors by going through a repeat of that 2011 campaign. In a best-case scenario, Morneau will shrug off his multitude of ailments and begin to once again resemble the elite slugger that anchored the middle of the Twins' lineup prior to his 2010 concussion. From 2006 to 2009, Morneau averaged 30 homers, 118 RBI and an .880 OPS. He was on pace for a career year in 2010 prior to the incident in Toronto. It really wasn't that long ago that he was among the best hitters in the league and a perennial MVP candidate. If Morneau could hold down first base and provide even league-average production at the position (last year that equated to .271/.340/.452), it would be a huge relief. Given his various maladies, though, it's tough to envision him playing 140-plus games, and even if he does there's a good chance that he'll spend a good chunk of time at designated hitter. So who fills in at first base? If Morneau's able to play there a majority of the time, Ron Gardenhire will probably be able to fill in the gaps with Joe Mauer, who will hopefully see an alleviated workload at catcher this year, and Luke Hughes, who has the advantage of being a righty that can be plugged in situationally. If Morneau moves to DH full-time or simply can't play, the situation becomes more complicated. Chris Parmelee has shown some promising signs recently and currently looks like the organization's best long-term option at first, but he still hasn't had a single at-bat in Triple-A yet. If the Twins need a regular first baseman and want to give Parmelee more time to develop, they'll probably look to one of the several minor-league veterans they have on hand. Newcomers Sean Burroughs and Steve Pearce have reasonably strong track records in the minors, as does Aaron Bates, who posted an .847 OPS in Rochester last season. Chances are that someone from this group could emerge as a palatable, if not ideal, option in Morneau's absence. Whatever happens, the focus should be on getting reasonably solid offensive production from first base this season. Last year the Twins got 18 homers and .809 OPS from the position, thanks largely to Michael Cuddyer playing there frequently and hitting extremely well when he did, but with him gone they'll need to develop a new fallback plan behind Morneau. Fortunately, like with catcher, there's enough depth to inspire some confidence. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Morneau: .270/.325/.425, 10 HR, 50 RBI

At my former writing home, I made an annual tradition of running through each position on the Twins' roster in March, sorting out the backup options and projecting the starter's performance. That tradition will continue here at Twins Daily, and today I'll kick off the Position Analysis series with catcher, where Joe Mauer is looking for a big comeback year. --- Likely Starter: Joe Mauer 2011 Stats: .287/.360/.368, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 38 R, 0/0 SB [ATTACH=CONFIG]272[/ATTACH] Potential Backups: Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera, J.R. Towles, Rene Rivera, Chris Herrmann One eighty five. That was the collective batting average for Twins catchers last year. The position produced a total of 98 hits in 162 games; by comparison, Joe Mauer had 90 hits by the All-Star break in 2009, and that was after missing the entire month of April. That transcendent '09 campaign was what earned Mauer his massive $184 million contract, which kicked off with a thunk last year. Limited to 42 starts behind the plate due to injury, the former MVP watched as his replacements tested the very limits of ineptitude, posting an astonishingly bad .453 OPS in his absence. It was a treacherous experience, but also a reminder as to why, when healthy and able to catch, Mauer is worth the premium price tag. While the Twins carried an especially awful batch of backup catchers last year, finding decent ones is no easy task. In general, this just isn't a position that produces much offense. American League backstops collectively hit just .238/.305/.391 last year; that's a rate of production that Mauer easily surpassed even while battling numerous ailments. If his health is vastly improved this season – and all early signs are indicating just that – his numbers will dwarf an average catcher's production and he'll once again be a tremendous asset, underrated by those who focus solely on home runs and RBI. Of course, the money question at this point is whether Mauer can stick at catcher for the majority of the season. For now he's claiming that his knees are feeling just fine, but numerous injuries have taken their toll on his legs over the years and he had a tendency to wear down in September and October even when relatively healthy. Considering the seven remaining years on Mauer's contract and the need for him to produce at the end of the season, which he hasn't been able to do in the past, I believe the Twins would be wise to significantly lighten his load behind the plate regardless of how he's feeling. Fortunately, improved depth should enable Ron Gardenhire to do that without once again turning the catcher position into an offensive black hole. Ryan Doumit, signed during the offseason after hitting .303/.353/.477 for the Pirates last year, figures to serve as Mauer's top backup. Though he's considered a weak defender, the switch-hitting Doumit has a legitimate bat. Since the plan is for Doumit to frequently serve as the designated hitter, and both he and Mauer have had their share of durability issues, there's little doubt that the Twins will carry a third catcher. For now, Drew Butera would appear to be the front-runner for that spot, but former top prospect J.R. Towles is on hand to provide competition. Eventually, the Twins would love for Chris Herrmann, who posted a .385 OBP between Single-A and Double-A last year, to work his way into the mix. Last year Gardenhire had no choice but to cycle between the likes of Butera, Rene Rivera and Steve Holm when Mauer went down, and that can be attributed to some extremely poor planning by the front office. They'll be entering this season much better prepared for such a scenario, with a number of intriguing candidates capable of keeping Butera and Rivera firmly planted on the bench or in Rochester. Of course, the hope is that sorting through those candidates will never be an issue, because Mauer stays healthy and combines with Doumit to turn the catcher position back into an offensive asset. Vilified a year ago, Joe seems more determined than ever to make it happen. Predicted Hitting Line for Mauer: .310/.370/.460, 10 HR, 75 RBI