Nick Nelson

There is a widespread assumption among Twins fans that the team will maintain its conservative approach this offseason and avoid making any big financial splashes. One could hardly be blamed for holding such a belief; that expectation has been engrained throughout the history of a franchise that has fostered a well deserved reputation for being extremely risk-averse. But when you take a look at the landscape of the organization and the circumstances being faced this coming winter, it's pretty tough to make a case that the Twins will not take at least one or two significant plunges, unless you have completely lost faith in the desire of this front office to compete. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The key question is this: What makes this coming offseason different from the last one, in which the Twins took a very Twins-like approach, signing cheap low-upside veterans to plug gaping holes in the rotation while relying on internal reinforcements in a number of other areas? The answer is, well, a lot of things. For one, there is going to be much more money available. It's well established at this point that Terry Ryan came in far below that budget that was made available to him last offseason, perhaps by as much as $10-20 million. This year, the spending limit set by ownership would figure to rise, considering that that Ryan left plenty of money unspent this season and -- although the Twins probably won't see any rise in their own revenues with attendance dropping again -- they will be receiving a cash windfall as part of the league's new cable deal. Plus, with Justin Morneau's $14 million, Nick Blackburn's $5.5 million and Mike Pelfrey's $4 million coming off the books, the Twins have very few notable payroll commitments going forward. In 2014, they will owe a combined $46 million to Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia, Glen Perkins, Ryan Doumit and Jared Burton. Beyond that, it's all league-minimum salaries and modest arbitration raises, none of which are likely to exceed one or two million tops. That gives the club immense room to add payroll, even if they are just aiming to get back to this year's $82 million mark. Since their needs are relatively focused -- the bullpen is fairly set and the offense is already beginning to receive help from a robust pipeline of minor-league talent -- the Twins can fully direct any funds toward improving their shoddy rotation. Of course, many of us were saying the same thing a year ago, when the starting pitching corps was in similarly dire straits with ample financial flexibility available. It is possible that Ryan and Co. will follow the same path, further frustrating those of us who have grown skeptical of the organization's willingness to do what's necessary to dig out of this deep hole. But I don't think so. Three straight years of steady losing creates more urgency than two straight years. The fan base is growing more and more apathetic and season ticket sales are declining as the new-stadium grace period wears off. As I mentioned last week, the Twins don't have much of anything to tout from a pitching standpoint, given that essentially every guy they've trotted out this season has failed. Granted, the free agent market is far from a surefire method of drastically improving the rotation, even if you're willing to open the wallet, but as Parker pointed out last week there will be some intriguing names out there that could shake up the composition of this absurdly contact-heavy staff. Spending on a high-profile name would at least create some buzz and reassure fans that an earnest effort is being made. The All-Star Game is coming to Minneapolis next year, leading some to believe that the Twins will keep their foot off the pedal, relying on this national attraction -- rather than improvement on the field -- to drive ticket sales and interest. I tend to think the opposite is true. This is an opportunity, and the club will seek to take advantage. Don't forget that leading up to Target Field's inaugural season, the Twins could have stayed the course, having reached the playoffs in their final year at the Metrodome. Instead, they attacked the offseason as aggressively as ever before. In addition to signing Mauer to his historic contract extension, they paid to keep Carl Pavano, traded for J.J. Hardy, and signed Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome. Obviously, it's a different situation when you're adding the final pieces to a proven contender. But if the Twins ever want to return to being a proven contender, they need to start taking some more purposeful steps than we've seen recently. That means acquiring established talent that can actually make an impact. With so much money begging to be spent this offseason, they almost have no choice.

The Twins entered this season with a wide assortment of "maybes" in their starting pitching mix, hoping that over the course of 162 games a couple would separate themselves from the pack and become established as sturdy options moving forward. In a transitional year where there was never any realistic expectation of winning, this was truly the overriding goal. The Twins talked about wanting to play meaningful games in September, they talked about wanting to play better fundamental baseball, they talked about wanting to see improvement from the coaching staff and the training staff. But in the end, all that paled in comparison to the need for some positive movement within their ruined rotation. And it didn't happen. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Most of the starting pitching suspects unraveled. Really there was only one case where a borderline pitcher exceeded expectations and positioned himself as an enticing option for next year; that's Samuel Deduno, who has been shut down after struggling through shoulder pain in August and undergoing an MRI that revealed "some issues with his labrum and rotator cuff." (Those are some ominous words for a pitcher.) With the exception of Deduno, no Twins starter has pitched especially well or given any indication that he can be an asset in next year's rotation. And that's a rather disastrous outcome, which serves to hamper the excitement and giddiness we should all be feeling about the upcoming crop of uber-talented position players. Along with the mediocre Kevin Correia -- who, in fairness, has performed slightly better than expected -- the Twins will return an unexciting group of starter candidates next year that includes Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Kyle Gibson, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers, Liam Hendriks and Deduno. Those seven pitchers have combined for a 5.25 ERA in the majors this year, and not one of them has a strikeout rate that is even close to the league average. Each player has his strengths, and might have a chance to be a useful piece in the big leagues. But none deserves anything more than an invite to spring training at this point, and unlike last year -- where at least Diamond and Worley were coming off solid seasons, and Gibson was looking sharp on the comeback path from surgery -- there are no real positives to sell fans on right now. These pitchers are all wild cards who, based on recent results, seem more likely to struggle than succeed. Trying to inspire hope of a turnaround with this group would be unacceptable and inexcusable. I could maybe see the logic in letting these guys compete for one or two spots, with the rest heading to Rochester or moving on, as their production merits. But that leaves an awful lot of uncertainty remaining in the rotation, and as we've seen, it can quite tough to find impact arms to fill those spots. Last offseason, the Twins traded two valuable position players and signed two veteran free agents, and still ended up without anyone that helped them much this year. So what to do now? Well, the front office could take an aggressive approach, ramping up spending to pursue a higher class of free agent while making a few of their coveted assets available in the hopes of luring a near-ready pitching prospect or proven MLB starter. This would actually make a lot of sense, considering they have very few payroll commitments and the system is littered with highly regarded hitting prospects. The alternative would be to stay the course, sticking with the kind of low-upside moves that have become this organization's signature and praying that a few members of the aforementioned group can rise from the ashes of a dreadful 2013 campaign. The Twins can always point to hope on the horizon, bright young arms like Kohl Stewart, J.O. Berrios and Stephen Gonsalves looking promising, but selling fans on a future built around Single-A pitchers won't be easy. In my mind, this is an immensely important offseason for the Twins, and one where the old "business-as-usual" manner of operating will not fly. The storyline entering this winter will be much the same as last year -- pitching, pitching, pitching -- only the pressure will be far greater following a season that has seen too much movement in the wrong direction.

Let's face it: The Twins are going to have a tough time drawing much attention this month. They're limping their way toward another terrible finish, they just traded their second-biggest star, and of course the Vikings -- with reigning MVP Adrian Peterson -- are set to launch a fresh season on Sunday. It's a baseball wasteland. For us hopelessly devoted hardcores, though, there are a few developing storylines worth keeping an eye on as the Twins run out the string on another sad season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 1. Mauer's Return The recent reports on Joe Mauer, recovering from a concussion suffered a couple weeks ago, have been encouraging. It sounds as though he's likely to return this weekend. But in what capacity? And will he exhibit any ill effects, as players such as Justin Morneau and Denard Span have when first returning from head injuries? A healthy and productive final month from Mauer would be a big relief heading into the offseason. 2. Presley's First Impression As a 28-year-old outfielder who has been unable to establish himself in the majors, Alex Presley is hardly a prized commodity. But as the principal return in Saturday's Justin Morneau trade, Presley figures to get plenty of tread in the final month so the Twins can get a good look at what they have in him. He doesn't profile as an impact player, but he has been productive in the high minors and went 3-for-4 in his Twins debut Sunday. He figures to compete with Darin Mastroianni for a job as fourth outfielder next spring. 3. Pinto's Audition The Twins need depth at catcher, since it's unknown how comfortable they will be with Mauer or Ryan Doumit working behind the plate regularly going forward. We've seen in the past how much this team can be wooed by a strong performance during a September call-up (think Chris Parmelee) so if Pinto hits and holds his own defensively it's not unthinkable that he could be in the mix for an MLB roster spot out of the gates next year. 4. Diamond's Redemption As impressive as his breakout season was last year, Scott Diamond's follow-up in 2013 has been equally unimpressive. Over his first 20 starts in Minnesota, the lefty was plagued by regression across the board, with his once-elite grounder rate dropping into mediocrity while strikeouts and walks both lurched in the wrong direction. Since being demoted to Rochester in early August, Diamond has gotten back on track, going 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five starts. Hopefully he can translate that success back to the majors and gain some confidence heading into the winter. 5. Who's On First? This would have been a golden opportunity for Parmelee to reinsert himself into the conversation at first base. Morneau has been dealt and seems somewhat unlikely to re-sign in Minnesota during the offseason, so the position appears to be wide open going forward. Unfortunately, Parmelee -- who was bumped to Triple-A in July after hitting .223/.303/.372 over his first 83 games -- has been just as bad in the minors, hitting .226/.316/.363 with three homers in 44 games. It sounds as though Parmelee will be recalled after Rochester's season ends, despite his struggles, but it's tough to make any kind of case that he's deserving of extensive playing time at this point. Of course, Chris Colabello is hitting .183 and doing little to separate himself. Will someone emerge and show something before season's end?

Since returning to the minor leagues after his demotion in early August, Aaron Hicks has batted .417. Well, from the right side anyway. Unfortunately, he's only had 12 at-bats from that side because in Triple-A, like in the majors, the vast majority of pitchers are right-handers. And righties force the switch-hitting center fielder to the opposite batter's box, where he has posted a miserable .287 OPS in Rochester. Yuck. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Overall, between the majors and minors this year, Hicks has hit a respectable .239/.313/.451 as a righty and a dreadful .172/.240/.275 as a lefty. That's a difference of 250 points in OPS, and the stats are backed up by observational evidence. Hicks is natural right-handed hitter who took up switch-hitting in high school, and his swing is clearly far more smooth and strong from the right. Yet, the composition of pitchers in the league has him swinging from his far weaker side more than 75 percent of the time. This year has been such an utter disaster for Hicks that the Twins need to consider shaking things up to get him back on track. Eliminating his switch-hitting approach would be drastic and would essentially call for reinventing him as a hitter, but the need to do so is becoming increasingly apparent. Last year, at Double-A, Hicks acquitted himself quite well from the left side, hitting .287/.393/.434 for an .828 OPS that was nearly on par with his outstanding .881 mark from the right. But in previous years the outfielder has consistently struggled to inflict damage against right-handed pitchers, leading to his drop-off on prospect lists (Hicks went from being ranked the No. 19 prospect by Baseball America in 2010 to No. 72 this spring). In 2011, at Ft. Myers, Hicks batted .230 and slugged .356 from the left side, as opposed to .263 and .401 from the right. In 2010, at Beloit, he hit .248 and slugged .339 from the left while crushing to the tune of .362 and .664 from the right. His inability to hit with authority against righties certainly helps explain the slide in prospect status over the past three years, and was extremely evident during an ugly rookie season in the majors. Ostensibly, batting lefty against right-handed pitchers is beneficial for Hicks, providing him with a better look at incoming pitches. But his inferior swing from that side seemingly negates any gained advantages. It's really difficult to imagine him performing worse against righties while swinging out of the right-handed batter's box. How much worse can it get? The list of players who have given up switch-hitting this deep into their careers is rather short. The Orioles talked about doing it with 28-year-old former Twin Alexi Casilla earlier this season, but it never happened. Implementing such a dramatic change for a player who has been playing the game a certain way professionally for six years is an imposing proposition, and perhaps the adjustment would be too daunting for the Twins to even attempt, but it is frustrating seeing Hicks' offensive game so limited by being forced to take the vast majority of his at-bats from an unnatural and inferior stance.

The Twins announced Tuesday that they will be sending seven players to the Arizona Fall League this year. The list of prospects includes Byron Buxton, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, A.J. Achter and Zach Jones. It's an impressive group, to be sure. The first five names comprised half of Twins Daily's Top 10 Twins Prospects this spring, and Buxton has of course solidified himself as the best young talent in all the minors with a phenomenal campaign between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. While Buxton is the highlight, the most interesting players to follow may be the two pitchers acquired in trades last offseason. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Meyer displayed dominating strikeout stuff in New Britain this year and has reportedly flashed 100 MPH heat in recent outings, but he missed two months with a shoulder injury and will finish the season with fewer than 100 innings pitched. He badly needs the additional work to build arm strength, but could become a factor for the big-league club in 2014. May has had a disappointing and inconsistent first year in Minnesota's system, but he has displayed a powerful arsenal and could improve his standing with a good showing in the AFL. Buxton and Kepler aren't on the verge of the majors but they may rank as the organization's top two outfield prospects with Oswaldo Arcia graduated and Aaron Hicks amidst a year-long slump. Rosario will continue to refine his skills at second base and should be in the mix to make his big-league debut next year. Achter and Jones are stand-out relief prospects.