Nick Nelson

The Indians made a bold move at the trade deadline in 2011, trading away multiple top prospects to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez, a 27-year-old right-hander who was viewed at the time as one of the premier pitching talents in the National League. An imposing presence with a mid-90s fastball, Jimenez had steadily improved in the seasons leading up to 2010, when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA to finish third in the Cy Young voting. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Jimenez wasn't been the same guy over the first half of the 2011 season in Colorado, posting a 4.46 ERA with significantly diminished velocity, but Cleveland still jumped at the opportunity to add a potential ace in his physical prime. As it turned out, the righty's troubles only worsened after the trade. He put up a 5.10 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch while the Indians rapidly faded from contention, and then trudged through a tumultuous 2012 campaign in which he lost 17 games with a 5.40 ERA, adding a career-high 4.8 BB/9 and a career-low 7.3 K/9. In two years, Jimenez had gone from superstar to liability. He bounced back in a major way this season, and the timing could hardly have been better for him. In his final year under contract, Jimenez went 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA, pushing his K-rate all the way back up 9.6 while showing dramatically improved control. Although his velocity dropped for a third consecutive year, his secondary stuff was as good as ever, and in the second half Jimenez looked every bit the part of a No. 1 starter, posting a 1.82 ERA and 100/27 K/BB ratio while holding opponents to a .606 OPS. He notched double-digit strikeouts in four of his last eight starts. Why Does He Fit? His performance this season, especially toward the end, is awfully tantalizing. That's a guy that could legitimately be called an ace -- something the Twins have mostly lacked since Johan Santana's departure. He also doesn't turn 30 until January, so in theory you're not looking at any imminent decline. While he's had his ups and downs in terms of performance and there are questions about the condition of his arm based on draining gas, he's been able to take the mound every five days throughout his career up to this point. Jimenez has made 31-plus starts in each of his six seasons since becoming a full-time big-leaguer. Only six pitchers have made more starts since 2008. Why Doesn't He Fit? There are no two ways about it: Jimenez is a massive risk. Even though he was able to succeed with a 91 MPH fastball this year, his steadily declining velocity is clearly a red flag, and he's still only a year removed from being one of the worst pitchers in the league. Considering his age, his recent performance and the state of the market, Jimenez will surely require a sizable long-term deal. The Twins might have to go above and beyond what others are offering in order to lure him to a current non-contender. As enticing as his upside is, the downside may simply be too great to justify an unprecedented financial commitment. Beyond the money, signing Jimenez would also probably cost the Twins a high draft pick, as Cleveland seems likely to make a qualifying offer. What Will He Cost? The Offseason Handbook pegs his estimated contract at four years and $64 million, which coincidentally is the same guess we made on Tim Lincecum, who was profiled here on Tuesday. Lincecum ended up inking an extension with the Giants later that day at two years and $35 million. What does that tell us about Jimenez, who is similar to Lincecum in that his velocity has declined as he's approached 30? Compared to The Freak, Jimenez would seem to offer a lower ceiling and deeper floor, but he's also coming off a much better year. Sixty-four million still looks like a reasonable guess to me. Would you pay that for a 30-year-old who was an ace this season, but mostly a disaster in the two years preceding?

Once upon a time, Phil Hughes was among the most highly touted pitching prospects in the game. A former first-round pick, he emerged as a dominant force in the minors, climbing to the No. 4 spot on Baseball America's list of top prospects before debuting in the majors at age 20 in 2007. Sadly, the right-hander has never lived up to his immense promise. With a career 4.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, he has essentially been the definition of "average" over the course of his seven years with the Yankees. Most disturbingly, he has deteriorated as he's aged toward his physical prime.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hughes had some fairly impressive campaigns earlier in his career, including an 18-win 2010 season, but over the past three years he has posted a 4.85 ERA (86 ERA+), and fielding-independent metrics don't suggest that his results are greatly out of line with his performance. Why Does He Fit? Hughes offers two primary attractions: his age and the potential that he'll improve once removed from the AL East and hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. By virtue of his early entry into the majors, Hughes hits free agency for the first time at the uncommonly young age of 27. That means that -- unlike with most veterans on the open market -- he could be signed to a long-term deal that won't necessarily take him into his mid-30s. Unfortunately, as discussed above, while ages 27-32 are generally thought to be a player's physical prime, Hughes hasn't shown the improvement you'd like to see while edging toward this window. Still, considering that he's less than a year older than Kyle Gibson, he clearly fits into the Twins' long-term timeline better than a guy over 30. Undoubtedly, Target Field would be a better environment for him than the ballpark in the Bronx. Hughes is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and one of his most glaring issues has been proneness to the long ball. Over the past three seasons, he has coughed up 68 homers in 411 innings -- an average of 1.49 HR/9 that ranks as the fifth-highest in the majors during that span. It stands to reason that many of those deep flies would die in the spacious gaps of Target Field, and then his consistently solid K/BB ratios become a whole lot more intriguing. The notion that a change of scenery would benefit Hughes is backed up by his home/road splits; this year, he went 1-10 with a 5.88 ERA and 17 homers allowed in 16 starts at Yankee Stadium, compared to 3-4 with a 3.88 ERA and seven home runs allowed in 13 road starts. Why Doesn't He Fit? The Twins are seeking a starter who is a proven producer -- a guy who has been durable and has eaten up innings. Hughes doesn't really fit that bill. He has never thrown 200 innings in a season and has averaged just 147 since becoming a full-time starter. He completed six innings in 13 of his 29 starts this season. Only as a reliever has he excelled over an extended period. Hughes was a high-end talent while coming up through the minors and he's flashed that ability at times in the majors, but in the current climate he'll likely require a significant investment, which would mean taking a major leap of faith. That would be pretty uncharacteristic for Terry Ryan and these Twins. What Will He Cost? In the Offseason Handbook, we estimated Hughes' contract at three years, $30 million. That's seemingly a large amount to guarantee a guy who hasn't really produced in recent years, but the righty's youth -- in combination with his pedigree and potential -- could create a bidding war of sorts in a pitching-starved market where money is more flush than ever. On the bright side, because of the hurler's poor performance this year -- especially down the stretch (he posted a 7.22 ERA in August and September) -- it sounds unlikely that the Yankees will extend a qualifying offer, meaning that signing him won't cost a draft pick.

It's no secret: the Twins are going to be in the market for starting pitching this offseason. In the Offseason Handbook, you'll find a comprehensive list of free agents at the position, along with brief writeups and contract estimates. Here on Twins Daily, we'll take five members of the FA pitching crop that may be of particular interest to the Twins and dive in with a little more depth. Today we start the series with Tim Lincecum. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Also known as The Freak, Lincecum came up with the Giants in 2007 and almost immediately emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 2008, his second MLB season, he won the NL Cy Young by going 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA and league-leading 265 strikeouts. He followed up with another Cy Young in 2009, when he went 15-7 with a 2.48 ERA and once again led the league in strikeouts. His initial success enabled Lincecum to rapidly reach big paydays. In his third season, he qualified for arbitration as a Super 2 and earned $9 million. His salary continued to escalate over the next three years and this season he made $22 million. However, while his income rose, his performance declined. In 2012 Lincecum posted a 5.18 ERA and led the NL in losses with 15. This year he rebounded to some extent but was still well below average, going 10-14 with a 4.37 ERA while his K/9 rate dropped to a career-low 8.8. Lincecum's name still looms large, but he has experienced worrisome decline as he's aged into his late 20s, with his average fastball velocity dropping from 94 MPH in 2008 to 90 MPH in 2013. Why Does He Fit? Even though his results weren't great this year, Lincecum still piled up strikeouts at a solid rate, averaging nearly one per inning and fanning eight or more hitters on 10 occasions (a feat that, of course, no Twins starter managed all season long). If the Twins are serious about reversing their severe Vitamin K deficiency, Lincecum would be a natural target. Adding to Lincecum's appeal is his relatively low stock. Acquiring a former Cy Young winner under the age of 30 would normally require a massive long-term deal, but the right-hander's regression in the past two seasons will likely scare many suitors away from taking a huge plunge. For his part, Lincecum may be inclined to settle into Target Field for a year or two with the hopes of reestablishing his value. For what it's worth, his xFIP marks in the past two seasons have been 3.82 and 3.56, so the underlying peripherals suggest that -- while he's not the same guy he once was -- he's a better pitcher than his recent results show. Why Doesn't He Fit? It's difficult to trust a guy who has posted a 4.76 ERA over the past two seasons while his velocity and strikeout rates have continued to drop. Lincecum exhibits many signs of a guy who isn't fully functional. Has his arm simply worn down after being put through more than 1,000 innings of work in his first five seasons? That doesn't sound like the kind of player you want to be making a sizable investment in; then again, Lincecum has been incredibly durable up to this point, making 32-plus starts in each of the past six seasons. That's something the Twins value highly. What Will He Cost? Lincecum is a tough one to figure out. In the Handbook, we project that the righty will require four years and $64 million to lock up, but it's not hard to see the cost being significantly higher or lower. It all comes down to a couple key questions. Will general managers around the league focus more on his track record and age, or his declining performance and velocity? Will Lincecum himself be shopping around for the biggest possible offer, or will he opt instead for a short-term deal with the hopes of rebounding and boosting his marketability? Whatever the case, given that Lincecum leads all major-league pitchers in strikeouts since his first full season in 2008 and doesn't figure to be exorbitantly expensive, he should certainly draw some interest from the game's most K-starved franchise.