Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2472[/ATTACH]Each year in our Offseason Handbook, we put together a list of all the upcoming free agents at every position. Beyond the write-ups and statistical breakdowns for each player, we estimate the contract we expect them to get, so that armchair GMs can fit prospective acquisitions into their budgets. This is an aspect of the publication that we take very seriously. In fact, every year, we set aside a day for the entire editorial staff to get together and reach a consensus on each what each free agent might get. This process takes several hours and invariably leads to numerous fisticuffs, but the end result is a fair measure of accuracy. We feel that giving readers a reasonable idea of what each free agent will command is a cool feature of the product, and so we want to get as close as we can. Given the Twins' current needs, the starting pitcher free agent section is inevitably going to be one of the most important in this year's Handbook. So I thought today I would take a look back at last year's edition and review our contract estimates for starters compared to the actual contracts that those pitchers ultimately received. We certainly weren't always perfect, but in the instances where we missed, perhaps there's a lesson to be learned that can carry over to this year's crop. CC Sabathia Estimated Contract: 5 years, $130M Actual Contract: 5 years, $122M Notes: Sabathia's last contract ran through 2015, but it was widely expected that he would opt out and try to get more money out of the Yankees. He did just that, and we were pretty close on what the two sides ended up agreeing upon. CJ Wilson Estimated Contract: 5 years, $85M Actual Contract: 5 years, $77.5M Notes: We were pretty close on this one as well. The 31-year-old Wilson signed a five-year deal with the Angels for slightly less than we guessed. Edwin Jackson Estimated Contract: 3 years, $33M Actual Contract: 1 year, $11M Notes: We had the annual salary correct, but we didn't expect that Jackson would end up settling for a one-year deal. He probably could've gotten a multi-year contract but ended up signing with the Nats, hoping to pump up his value for the following offseason. I'd say that worked out well for him. He may get that $33 million contract this winter. Mark Buehrle Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30M Actual Contract: 4 years, $58M Notes: Apparently, we grossly underestimated Buehrle's market value. Despite the fact that he was about to turn 33 years old, the Marlins gave him a four-year deal. It's not clear that decision will ultimately work out well, but he was very Buehrle-like in the first year, posting a 3.74 ERA over 202 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma Estimated Contract: 3 years, $25M Actual Contract: 1 year, $1.5M Notes: We just sort of misread this situation. In the 2010-2011 offseason, the Athletics won the bidding on the Japenese hurler with a $19 million posting fee but Iwakuma ultimately decided to return to Japan after the two sides couldn't agree on a contract. We figured it would take a substantial chunk of change to land him one offseason later, but as it turned out the Mariners landed him on the open market for a huge bargain and he made good with a 3.16 ERA. Still only 31 years old, he may land that three-year deal this time around, and the Twins – who reportedly finished runner-up to the A's in the posting system two years ago – could be a player for him. Roy Oswalt Estimated Contract: 2 years, $22M Actual Contract: 1 year, $5M Notes: There was a fair amount of interest in Oswalt last offseason, but rather than signing with a club, he semi-retired, only to sign with the Rangers in late May on a pro-rated $5 million deal. It didn't work out well, as he pitched poorly and ended up getting demoted to the bullpen. Aaron Harang Estimated Contract: 2 years, $15M Actual Contract: 2 years, $12M Notes: We were pretty close on this one, as well as the next three. Hiroki Kuroda Estimated Contract: 1 year, $11M Actual Contract: 1 year, $10M Bruce Chen Estimated Contract: 2 years, $10M Actual Contract: 2 years, $9M Paul Maholm Estimated Contract: 1 year, $4M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4.75M Notes: This deal worked out brilliantly for the Braves. Not only because Maholm pitched extremely well for a modest fee, but also because they included a team option for $6.5 million, so they'll be able to bring him back at a reasonable price next year. This is the kind of contract the Twins should be looking to ink. Joel Pineiro Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: Minor-league deal Notes: Even though he struggled in 2011, we figured that Pineiro would be able to land a guaranteed major-league deal given that he'd turned in a 3.66 ERA over 366 innings the prior two seasons. Injury issues robbed him of that chance and he ended up pitching 24 innings in the minors for the Orioles. Jason Marquis Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $3M Notes: Based on our estimate, the Twins got a bargain! Yay. Freddy Garcia Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M Brad Penny Estimated Contract: 1 year, $2.5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M in Japan Notes: Weird case. Penny followed the money to Japan but was apparently miserable, as he was granted his release from the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks after one start. He returned to the States and made 22 appearances for the Giants but pitched horribly. Interested in seeing our estimates for this year's robust free agent starting pitching class? Pre-order your copy of the Offseason Handbook today and save 30 percent!

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2465[/ATTACH]After approaching 100 losses in back-to-back seasons, the Twins clearly needed to make some changes. As we put it when introducing our Offseason Handbook yesterday, complacency was not going to be an option this winter. They wasted little time shaking things up, parting with their entire coaching staff – save for pitching coach Rick Anderson and manager Ron Gardenhire – in the very first day after the season came to an end. Bullpen coach Rick Stelmaszek, third base coach Steve Liddle and first base coach Jerry White were all told that their expiring contracts will not be renewed. Head trainer Rick McWane also is gone, which comes as no surprise given the iffy handling of injuries over the past couple years. Hitting coach Joe Vavra and bench coach Scott Ullger will be reassigned within the organization. For a team that has maintained remarkable field staff stability over the past decade, this is an enormous development. It's also warranted, because while I doubt that each departing coach was blatantly incompetent at his job, a change in clubhouse culture and a message that all this losing is not acceptable both were necessary. Some fans are already voicing frustration that Anderson and Gardenhire were left alone for the time being, given that the pitching staff was clearly the leading issue this year and ultimately the manager should assume responsibility for a team failure as miserable as we've seen. Yet, there have undeniably been challenging circumstances beyond the control of those two, and I think it's fair to say that they are on thin ice at this point. Gardenhire will almost certainly enter the next season as a "lame duck manager," with only one year left on his contract. The writing is on the wall that if things don't turn around, Gardy and his right-hand man are probably going to follow the rest of the coaching staff out the door. Personally, I'm OK with giving them both another chance, considering their strong track records prior to 2011. But it's refreshing to see the organization sending a strong message, and I'll be interested to see how the the vacant spots are filled (or the spots that open up in Rochester, assuming that Gene Glynn, Bobby Cuellar and Tom Brunansky are brought up as expected).

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2452[/ATTACH]In their second-to-last game of 2012, the Twins sent Anthony Swarzak to the hill. He turned in a sub par five-inning outing, and the Twins ended up losing by a run, their 95th loss of the season. A pitcher who had no business starting a major-league game getting roughed up and putting his capable offense in a hole they couldn't dig out of. Minnesota's 2012 season in a nutshell. Now, the above isn't intended as a slight toward Swarzak, whose overall campaign was hardly a disaster. When used in the long relief role, he was perfectly adequate, turning in a 4.05 ERA in 73 1/3 innings out of the bullpen and often effectively bridging the gap after short starts, which were depressingly frequent. Swarzak was one of many hurlers who were successful when used in the proper role, which is one of the bigger positive takeaways for the pitching staff this year. Guys like Sam Deduno and Cole DeVries put forth efforts that would have been exemplary for a spot starter, but both were somewhat stretched when forced into more than a dozen games. Brian Duensing was outstanding as a reliever and horrible as a starter. Liam Hendriks dominated the minors but looked overmatched in the majors while the Twins had little choice but to keep trotting him out. We'd probably view most of these pitchers differently if they hadn't been pressed so far beyond their expected roles. And of course, this was the result of what was without question the most notable development of the season: The five starters that the Twins expected to comprise their rotation at the beginning of the year (Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis) combined to make a total of 54 starts. There were many factors contributing to the entire preseason rotation being out of the picture by the end of July, and you could argue that many of them were foreseeable. Still, the Twins flipped tails five times with their five starters and when you have that kind of extraordinarily bad luck, you're bound to have a tough time competing, especially when you don't have much starting pitching depth to begin with. Many things went wrong for the Twins, but it basically all comes back to starting pitching. Rarely has the culprit for a completely derailed season been so blatantly clear. That's a shame, as it covers up the assorted successes surrounding the relief corps and the offense. In the bullpen, Glen Perkins backed up a breakout 2011 campaign with an even better season in which he handled everything thrown his way, taking over the closer role without a hitch after Matt Capps went down. Jared Burton and Casey Fien emerged as legitimate cogs, while Duensing remains one of the league's better lefty specialists. That's a solid, inexpensive core to build around. In the lineup, the Twins stayed shockingly healthy all year. In 2011, only two players on the entire team (Michael Cuddyer and Danny Valencia) were able to amass 500 plate appearances; this year seven players topped that mark. From the point that the Twins finally settled on Ben Revere as the right fielder after cycling through several uninspiring options early on, the starting nine remained impressively stable throughout the summer (with the characteristic exception of the middle infield spots). Not only were they healthier around the field, they were far more productive. The Twins went from having the second-worst OPS in the AL in 2011 (.666) to ranking ninth at .717 this year. They remained light on power, as they'll finish among the bottom three teams in slugging and homers, but they rank fifth in on-base percentage and are tied for first in stolen bases, which is more their traditional recipe for success anyway. On Wednesday night the Twins will wrap up this 2012 season, and they might finish with only three fewer losses than they had last year. That's fairly discouraging, but for those who followed the club, there's just no way to come away with the same sense of all-encompassing ineptitude and frustration. This team's failures started and ended with a rotation that was grossly unequipped for the plights that would befall it over the course of the summer. Does that make 95 losses easier to swallow? I guess, for me, it does. Mistakes were made and there's obviously work to be done, but I feel a whole lot better about this organization's outlook going forward than I did a year ago, even if the improvement in the W/L column was negligible.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2439[/ATTACH]In assessing the Twins' payroll situation for next year, a depressing reality became clear. Between the contracts of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Nick Blackburn, along with the $250,000 buyout that will be owed to Matt Capps, the club was set to be on the hook for about $9 million in what appeared to be totally sunk costs – all the results of clearly misguided decisions. That's a pretty significant chunk of money for a team with payroll restraints that needs to be putting all available resources toward improving its considerable weaknesses. Fortunately, that burden was lessened today when Nishioka, one of the most spectacular failures in the team's recent history and an almost guaranteed non-factor in next year's plans, asked for his unconditional release, thereby releasing the Twins from their $3.25 million commitment to him next year. It's a somewhat surprising development, given that there aren't many past examples of a professional athlete walking away from millions of dollars in guaranteed money. But to understand the decision, it might help to consider some of the cultural differences between Japan and America. I'm currently reading a book called Unbroken by Laura Hillenbrand. It details the true story of an American Olympian named Louie Zamperini who became a bombardier in World War II, had his plane shot down over the Pacific and ended up in a Japanese POW camp. It's a fantastic book and a highly recommended read. At one point, in discussing the Japanese army's torture and degradation tactics with American prisoners, Hillenbrand touches on the psychology behind this sad (but of course hardly unique) practice: Now, I certainly don't mean to imply that Nishioka shares the mentality of a 1940s military torturer, but the passage above touches on a distinct aspect of Japanese culture that traces back throughout history. Pride and dignity tend to be valued more highly than most things, including money, which might be difficult to understand in our very different American society where the almighty buck is often priority No. 1. In Japan, Nishioka was a preeminent star. He came to the States and was a total failure, unable to produce quality numbers even in the minor leagues. It's not hard to see how this could be extremely difficult for someone with such a mindset to cope with, and given that Nishioka's stock has done nothing but plummet after an abysmal rookie season, his outlook here was grim – grim enough that he was willing to give up millions of dollars to get away. (With that said, I suspect he'll be able to land a fairly substantial deal back in Japan.) He seems like a perfectly decent guy who's gone through an inordinate number of bad breaks (both literally and figuratively) over the past couple years. He probably did both himself and the Twins a favor by asking out of his contract, and I hope he's able to return to Japan and regain the level of success that brought him notoriety there. Meanwhile, the Twins will go back to the drawing board as they attempt to address their ugly middle infield situation. I applaud the creativity that led them to sign Nishioka, but going forward the execution will obviously need to be better.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2397[/ATTACH]It is easy to despair over Liam Hendriks after starts like the one he turned in on Monday night against the Yankees, when he coughed up four homers en route to his eighth loss in 15 tries for the Twins this year. Certainly the right-hander has offered little cause for encouragement here in his first extended exposure to the majors, but we shouldn't let these rocky outings completely sour us on his long-term outlook. Earlier this month, Aaron Gleeman drew a comparison on his blog between Hendriks and former Twin Brad Radke. When Radke first stepped onto the scene back in 1995, his performance was similar to what we've seen from Hendriks thus far. He gave up tons of hits, tons of homers and looked generally hopeless. Of course, Radke went on to have a pretty decent career. I was struck by another more recent example of a player who, like Hendriks, put up ridiculous numbers in the minors despite an underwhelming arsenal and got knocked around in his first taste of the majors. That would be Kevin Slowey. Compare the numbers from Slowey's rookie season in 2007 to the ones Hendriks has produced this year: [TABLE] Player IP ERA K BB Opp OPS HR Slowey 66.2 4.73 47 11 .850 16 Hendriks 78.1 6.09 47 24 .914 17 [/TABLE] Granted, Hendriks' production looks pretty bad even in comparison to Slowey's uninspiring debut. But the two shared the same principal problem – a proneness to having their mediocre offerings deposited in the bleachers. Slowey was even more vulnerable to homers than Hendriks, which is saying something given that the latter's HR rate would translate to a 44 long balls allowed in a 200-inning season. Slowey's initial struggles in the big leagues gave him plenty to work on during the offseason, and he came back to put together a fine season as a 24-year-old in 2008, posting a 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 123-to-24 K/BB ratio in 160 1/3 innings. He cut his HR/9 rate from 2.2 to 1.2. Hendriks is 23 years old, the same age as Slowey was in '07. He similarly needs to make adjustments and find a way to make his stuff work against MLB hitters, the way it has against hitters at all levels in the minors. If he can bounce back next year with numbers anywhere close to the ones Slowey was able to produce in his sophomore season, it would be a huge boon for Minnesota's shaky rotation.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2382[/ATTACH]During the first half of the season, Jamey Carroll seemed to be showing his age. By the All-Star break, he was hitting .234 with a brutal .597 OPS, and he had long since lost his job as the team's starting shortstop. He was certainly making his two-year, $6.5 million contract look like a poor investment. Since the break, Carroll has looked more like the player the Twins thought they were getting. After finishing 2-for-5 in the nightcap of yesterday's doubleheader, the veteran is now hitting .306/.369/.361 since the Midsummer Classic, a line that compares favorably against his .290/.368/.344 output over the two seasons prior. Even though he hasn't been able to authoritatively claim any position this year, Carroll has clearly been one of Ron Gardenhire's go-to guys, as he ranks fifth on the team with 518 plate appearances. And his production over the past few months has warranted the tread he's gotten. Even though he lacks any semblance of power and he's not a spectacular defender, a .750 OPS from a middle infielder is none too shabby. So how will Carroll figure into next year's plans? Presently, the team lacks solidity at either middle-infield spot, and relatively speaking, he looks like a pretty appealing option. Then again, it appears that the manager has lost faith in his abilities at shortstop, given that he drawn only nine starts at the position since losing his regular job there in early May. There's another dynamic in play when assessing Carroll's 2013 role. He has a 2014 option in his contract that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 401 plate appearances next year. Granted, that option is only for $2 million, but he'll be 40 years old in '14 and he's already shown signs of decline this year in spite of his strong second half. What do you think? Should the Twins move forward planning on having Carroll as their starter at second (or even short) next year with the hopes that his post-break performance is a sign of things to come? Or should they keep him in a utility role, hoping to fill the middle-infield spots with younger players that are potential building blocks, while at the same time improving their chances of avoiding that 2014 option?

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2366[/ATTACH]Denard Span stepped into the box to lead off Tuesday night's game and turned on the third pitch he saw from left-hander David Huff, driving it into right field for a double, sparking a three-hit night. In six games since returning from the disabled list, the center fielder is now 9-for-25 (.360) with two doubles, a triple and four runs scored. His late-season success bodes well for Terry Ryan heading into an offseason where Span will likely be the club's primary trade chip. Following what will almost certainly be a second consecutive season with 90-plus losses, there's going to be plenty of pressure on Ryan to shake things up. The emergence of Chris Parmelee makes the Twins motivated sellers, and given that they have not-so-subtly dangled Span in back-to-back trade deadlines, the writing is on the wall. There's an extremely high likelihood that Span will be dealt this offseason. So the question is: what can they get for him? When it comes to assessing his trade value, he has several things working in his favor. He's an established leadoff man with a reputation as a strong defender. He'll be coming off a solid season in which he currently holds a .290 average (third among AL center fielders) and .350 OBP (fourth) with a career-high 34 doubles. It's also very much worth noting that the free agent crop for center fielders this offseason will be quite thin. Unless you count Josh Hamilton, the most appealing options are B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn. Not one of those players is clearly a better bet going forward than Span, whose three-year, $20 million remaining contract looks like a great value compared to what those three are likely to get on the open market. Then again, Span also has some things going against him. No one views him as the powerful force he was in 2008/09 anymore, and his missed time over the past two seasons has to weigh on the minds of interested general managers. Even if he plays every game the rest of the way, he will have missed 127 games over the past two years. Fortunately, last year's concussion is now an afterthought and his strong play since returning from this latest shoulder ailment will help erase concerns that this one could linger. That's why carrying his current hot streak through the end of the campaign would be a big positive for the Twins. Just one more thing to watch here in the final two weeks.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2350[/ATTACH]An updated glance at the Twins' starting pitching depth chart, with a couple weeks remaining in the season. Barring any major developments over the rest of the month, this is how we view the team's SP pecking order heading into the offseason: 1. Scott Diamond. He's gone through some struggles recently, with a 6.64 ERA over his past four starts, but that was to be expected. In addition to the fact that he was bound for some regression, he might be wearing down with 183 innings pitched this season. Nevertheless, he's clearly at the head of the pack. 2. Sam Deduno. Against all odds, the 29-year-old continues to turn in quality starts despite an ugly 48-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio. After tossing a dud against the Rangers on August 24, he's bounced back with a 1.80 ERA in three starts since. Most impressive, he's struck out 18 and walked only six in 20 innings during that span. 3. Cole De Vries. He's done for the season after suffering cracked ribs on a comeback line drive last week, but De Vries has seemingly positioned himself well by turning in a solid 4.11 ERA and backing it up with decent peripherals (outside of his ugly homer rate). Still, it's difficult to trust his stuff. 4. Liam Hendriks. The rookie's path to becoming a better pitcher is clear: attack the strike zone more and bring down that .350 BABIP. He's continued to struggle in both areas since rejoining the rotation, but at least he's dialed down the long balls since his earlier stint. 5. P.J. Walters. After a fairly impressive stretch earlier in the year, he spent two months on disabled list and in two starts since returning he has been flat-out terrible. Still, his performance when healthy should be enough to merit another shot in Rochester next year. 6. Esmerling Vasquez. His strong performance in Triple-A earned him a September call-up, but two putrid outings since joining the Twins – in addition to the fact that he's been used almost exclusively as a reliever in the minors lately – confirm what we already thought: he's not equipped to start in the bigs. --- 7. Kyle Gibson. Among pitchers not currently in the rotation, Gibson has to be the most likely candidate to claim a spot out of spring training next year. He pitched well in a short minor-league rehab stint this year and will hopefully be fully on track after throwing in the Arizona Fall League. 8. Brian Duensing. His struggles as a starter (6.92 ERA) and success as a reliever (2.98 ERA) should have the Twins convinced of what his role needs to be. 9. Anthony Swarzak. Like Duensing, Swarzak is clearly meant to be pitching out of the bullpen. He's a useful long reliever but nothing more than an emergency spot starter. 10. B.J. Hermsen. Dark horse for a rotation spot next year? Probably not, as the Twins aren't apt to rush young prospects, but the 22-year-old's long track record of success – which continued this year as he posted the fifth-best ERA in the Class-AA Eastern League despite younger than anyone in front of him – cannot be ignored.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2326[/ATTACH]Many believe there's no way the Twins can possibly turn things around quickly enough to be a competitive team next season. They're on their way to a second straight 90-plus loss season, their starting rotation is an absolute mess and their best prospects are still probably a couple years away from making an impact. To those people, I present the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. A year ago, the O's finished last in the AL East for a fourth straight season, and their 4.89 team ERA was the worst mark in the majors. Now, they find themselves in the thick of the postseason race,tied with the Yankees for first place in what is routinely baseball's toughest division. Their 4.09 team ERA is exactly on par with the American League average. With three weeks left in the season, they've already posted their highest win total since 1998. It's a pretty remarkable story, and one that should provide a spark of hope for despondent Twins fans. For while Baltimore's shocking rise has been heavily influenced by good luck (they're 17 games over .500 despite being outscored by opponents this season), their circumstances are also far more daunting than the Twins. The Orioles had been in the gutter for the better part of two decades, rather than two years, and they play in the treacherous AL East rather than the perpetually mediocre AL Central. The most relevant ingredient in Baltimore's turnaround is their pitching staff's rise from worst-in-the-world to middle-of-the-pack. If the Twins, who currently rank 28th out of 30 MLB teams in ERA, could simply move to the middle in 2013, there's no reason why they couldn't take a shot at the Central division with some good breaks (and after the last two years, it definitely seems like they'll be due for some good breaks). How has Baltimore done it? To quote Terry Ryan, they've done it by exploring every avenue. You've got your unconventional free agent signing in Wei-Yin Chen, who's come over from Japan with great success. You've got your savvy trade acquisition in Jason Hammel, brought over from the Rockies for Jeremy Guthrie (who fell apart in Colorado). You've got your out-of-nowhere unheralded minor-league free agent in Miguel Gonzalez. You've got young players who have previously struggled, like Chris Tillman and Zach Britton, taking steps forward. And you've got a lights-out relief corps. The O's rank fourth in the AL with a 3.17 bullpen ERA. Baltimore didn't go on a spending spree to repair a broken pitching staff. They got creative, showed patience with young arms and benefited from some good fortune. There's no reason to rule out a similar scenario for the Twins, especially when you consider that the GM Ryan has made numerous good moves since retaking the helm (even if that's not reflected in the team's record) and he figures to have a decent chunk of money to spend this winter. "Be like Baltimore." For many years it would have been an insane model for success, but for the Twins and Terry Ryan, it will make for a great offseason formula.