Nick Nelson

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2062[/ATTACH]The second-best pitcher in Minnesota's rotation is a 29-year-old journeyman with five innings of previous major-league experience who has issued 36 walks in 46 innings this season. Obviously, that speaks to how bad the club's starting pitching has been, but it also speaks to the success Sam Deduno has enjoyed in spite of his outrageously bad control. The right-hander has tallied five quality starts in eight turns, and with a little run support on Sunday he would have improved to 5-0 on the season. He's a fascinating pitcher to watch. His erratic tendencies are unparalleled; he's averaging 7.0 BB/9 – among MLB pitchers with 40-plus innings pitched, only the train wreck Jonathan Sanchez has a worse rate and no one else is close. Yet, up to this point Deduno has been able to work around the extreme control issues by limiting damage when the ball is put in play. Five qualifying pitchers in the American League (Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, David Price and Chris Sale) are yielding a lower batting average lower than Deduno's .228. Is this a sustainable recipe for success? Probably not. It's tough to expect anyone to maintain a .250 BABIP, and he's been fortunate to strand as many walks as he has. Then again, a free pass only gives the batter one base, and if you're not allowing the big hits, things generally won't get out of hand. Really, it's the same bend-don't-break philosophy that applies to a successful pitch-to-contact guy like Scott Diamond, though with a very different formula. Deduno is so far on the other end of the spectrum from this organization's typical pitching mold that it's hard to believe he was even given a chance. Typically the Twins have shown a strong preference for strike-throwers, even if it means they're among the most hittable pitchers in the league (Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are great examples). While he's unbelievably wild, Deduno has been extremely tough to square up, and his minor-league career – where he allowed only 7.6 hits per nine innings on average – suggests that's no fluke. Regardless of what moves the Twins make this offseason, it is a virtual certainty that at least a couple spots at the bottom of the rotation will be up for grabs next spring among a number of borderline pitchers already within the organization. When stacked up against the likes of Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Cole De Vries, Liam Hendriks, P.J. Walters and others, Deduno is far more likely to issue a walk but also far less likely to give up a hit or home run. At the end of the day, that might make him a more effective pitcher. Certainly that has been the case this season.

First of all, I don't think he's looked that bad. He's had some hard-hit liners find gloves in the outfield. Second, what difference does it make whether he's shaking off the rust in Rochester or Minnesota? The alternative is shifting Carroll to third and writing another punchless middle infielder into the lineup.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2027[/ATTACH]Late in Sunday's game against the Rays, the Twins reached their breaking point with Brian Dozier. With the game tied and runners on the corners for Tampa in the 10th inning, the rookie shortstop scooped up a ground ball and took the sure out at first rather than throwing home to cut down the go-ahead run or attempting a tough inning-ending double play. After the game, Ron Gardenhire seemed to let Dozier off the hook: And yet, Dozier sat on Monday. He sat again on Tuesday, and after the game it was announced he'd been demoted to Triple-A, with Pedro Florimon (and his .654 OPS in Rochester) coming up to replace him on the roster. It's a perplexing strategy for the Twins. Dozier will almost certainly be back up when rosters expand in September, making this a two-week demotion. How much good can that really do? At the same time, Dozier has been roundly awful for a full three months, so the move is easily justifiable. The only reasons he's lasted this long are because Gardenhire fiercely supports him and because he may be the organization's only hope for an internal solution at shortstop next year. Unfortunately, even those factors couldn't protect him after committing 15 errors (most for any AL shortstop despite the fact that he's only played in 84 games) while hitting .234/.271/.332, including .152/.237/.273 after what appeared to be a breakout three-hit game in Boston on August 2nd. Only one qualifying player in the majors (Justin Smoak) has a worse OPS than Dozier. In addition to his league-leading error total, he's had a number of misplays in the field – including Sunday's questionable and costly decision – that don't show up on the stat sheet. His plate discipline, which was a primary strength in the minors, has been dreadful, as he's drawn only 16 walks against 58 strikeouts in 340 plate appearances. Granted, the 25-year-old showed a few positive signs, namely some home run power and base-stealing proclivity, but this was an overwhelmingly discouraging major-league debut. At this point it's extremely difficult to look at him as a realistic starting option for next year. He just doesn't have any substantial strength to fall back on. Being sent to Triple-A after struggling in a major-league stint has been known to help young players in the past – look no further than Chris Parmelee for a recent example – and we can only hope that will happen here. But when you consider that Dozier was given an incredibly long leash, isn't all that young and was never an exceptional prospect to begin with, it's pretty tough to dismiss his initial struggles as a fluke. More than likely, he'll be another suspect among many others vying for a middle infield spot next year. Just another passenger on Minnesota's never-ending shortstop carousel.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2010[/ATTACH]Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who was optioned to the minors today to make room for Trevor Plouffe, has probably played his last game in a Twins uniform. His memory will endure, however – probably for longer than the team would like. In a sense, you can't help but feel bad for the guy. He worked hard and tried his best, but in the end he couldn't cut it, and his demotion in the wake of an audition so horrendous it needed to be cut short after three games serves as a reminder of the most misguided decision in a blunder-filled Bill Smith era. The signing of Nishioka and the corresponding roster maneuvering – namely, trading J.J. Hardy for what amounted to nothing – were puzzling at the time and far worse in hindsight. It's not that the moves themselves have set the organization back irreversibly, as Nishioka's $3 million salary is hardly a massive burden and Hardy has come hurdling back to earth in year one of his new contract (though I'd argue he's still a decent value at $7 million). It's more that the thought process behind the decisions – the misplaced priorities, the awful player evaluation, the lack of long-term foresight – represented everything wrong with the front office under Smith. These weaknesses were also on display in moves like the Nick Blackburn extension, the Carl Pavano re-signing and the Matt Capps trade. Mixed in with a good hint of bad luck, this shaky leadership sent a thriving and annually competitive franchise to the very bottom. The Twins lost 99 games last year and they're on pace to lose 92 this year. If it pans out that way, it will be the worst two-year stretch for the club since the early '80s. The middle infield positions, which have been constant problem spots over the past decade, continue to be filled by stopgaps and marginal big-leaguers. And as long as that continues to be the case, people will remember Nishioka. Terry Ryan's job is to make them forget.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1862[/ATTACH]Earlier this week, Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press asked Terry Ryan whether the team's recent run of success has affected the way he's preparing for the offseason. "Regardless of what you look like right now, you still look at the club and figure out where you're headed and where you need to add," Ryan told Walters. "My focus and our focus will always be, as you go through a season, to look at what you've got and what you've got coming up." What the Twins have got and what they've got coming up are one in the same: bats. Their lineup is looking strong, and everyone is locked in for next year and beyond. In the offings, you've got Chris Parmelee obliterating Triple-A, while Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia thrive in Double-A. Where they need to add, clearly, is pitching. Everyone agrees on that. Opinions differ on the scope of the project. Should they focus solely on adding young, high-upside arms, even if it means disassembling their current core and delaying their window of contention by a few years? Or should they try to keep this group largely intact, picking up pitchers wherever they can and hoping for some good things to happen in 2013? From my perspective, there are a number of ways to work toward putting a contending team on the field next year that don't jeopardize the organization's long-term outlook. And not doing so would be an injustice to the franchise's most valuable (and highly-paid) asset: Joe Mauer. You may have noticed that Mauer has been rather awesome this year in spite of the club's struggles. After a sluggish start, he's turned it on the summer months and is back to ranking among the elite in batting average and on-base percentage while logging significant time at catcher. The likelihood that Mauer keeps playing at this level diminishes a bit next year. And a little bit more the year after that. And so on. That's because he'll turn 30 next spring, and historically baseball players have often started to show decline as they age into their fourth decade of life. Particularly guys with substantial injury histories. The time to build a championship-caliber team around Mauer is now, while he remains in his physical "prime." As the years pass, it becomes more difficult to center plans around him, and as long as he's consuming close to a quarter of the payroll there's really no other choice. As the Twins ponder whether to take a long-term approach in putting a competitive product back on the field, what they need to ask themselves is whether biding their time and stocking the farm is worth wasting the best years of Mauer's career.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1833[/ATTACH]Last year, Minnesota's outfield was a mess. Among players who put in significant time at an OF spot, only Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel posted an OPS over .700, and neither appeared in more than 77 games as on outfielder (Cuddyer due to Justin Morneau's injury, Kubel due to his own). This, along with Denard Span's costly injury, left a lot of at-bats for the likes of Delmon Young, Jason Repko, Rene Tosoni and a rookie Ben Revere, all of whom struggled mightily. This year has produced a rather dramatic turnaround, as the Twins' outfield has been one of the most stable and successful in memory. Josh Willingham has started 92 of a possible 110 games in left field. Though his defense has been suspect, his bat has more than made up for it as he's having a more productive season than Cuddyer or Kubel ever had here. One can easily argue that the slugger will be unable to maintain this performance throughout his contract, but the fact that he's showing absolutely zero signs of age at 33 cannot be viewed as anything other than an enormous positive. Additionally, the two guys next to Willingham have helped overshadow his deficiencies with the glove. One of those guys is Denard Span, who has started 97 of 110 games in center. He's not the elite top-of-the-order bat he once was, but the 28-year-old has been a durable, complete player. While he hasn't been spectacular in any area (except possibly defense), he's been very solid all-around and a quality leadoff man. Most importantly, his concussion issues from last year have rarely even been referenced this summer. Then there's Ben Revere, whose improvement is rather astounding. At age 24, he's already fulfilling his promise. As a guy who doesn't walk much or collect many extra-base hits, he needs to hit well over .300 and play stellar defense to be a truly valuable asset. Right now he's doing just that. Considering his skill set and the .326 average posted during his rapid assent through the minors, there's no reason to think he can't do it consistently for many years to come. I haven't even mentioned Darin Mastroianni, who is establishing himself as an ideal fourth outfielder with his rangy defense and elite base running skills. The great part about these players is that they're all under team control through at least 2015. The better part is that an infusion of excellent young outfield talent – namely Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks – is rapidly approaching the majors. Assuming those two continue to develop, the Twins will have a pleasant problem on their hands with an overload of quality outfielders. There have been a number of quirky things about this 2012 season. The fact that the Twins have managed to vastly improve their outlook in the outfield despite losing their two top producers to free agency surely must be viewed as one of the most enjoyable.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1806[/ATTACH]Sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to the minors at the outset of this season was a fairly obvious decision, given his immense struggles as a rookie last year. Leaving him there for the majority of the summer has also been an easy choice, as his play in Triple-A has offered no indication that he belongs in the big leagues. That remains true now, after a "hot" month of July in which Nishioka batted .298 but posted a meager .702 OPS, but nevertheless the Twins elected to bring him back to the majors when Sunday's Danny Valencia trade opened up a roster spot. And you know what? I believe the club made the right choice in recalling the embattled infielder, and I'll take it a step further: I think Nishioka should be starting regularly for Minnesota from here on out. Why? For the same reason that Nick Blackburn should keep taking the hill every fifth day, regardless of his performance. Right now, the Twins need to be completely focused on 2013 and beyond, and like it or not, the organization will be paying those two players – who happen to slot in at positions of great need – many millions of dollars next season. There's an inclination to label both Nishioka and Blackburn sunk costs, and ultimately that's what they may amount to next year: $8 million in wasted payroll with virtually no return. But that's an ugly scenario and the Twins have plenty of incentive to avoid it. In a late-season situation such as this, where wins and losses don't matter, there's an opportunity to take a long look at both players and try figuring out a way to get some value from them going forward. Believe me, I have close to zero faith in that happening, especially in the case of Nishioka. He just doesn't seem to have the tools to succeed as a major-league player. But a lengthy audition in a low-pressure environment with daily access to Joe Vavra and other coaches strikes me as a worthwhile last-ditch effort. Presuming Brian Dozier continues to start on the other side, Nishi won't be stealing playing time from anyone of import. When a 28-year-old hits .298/.336/.365 over a month in Triple-A, it's generally not something worth getting excited about. In the case of Nishioka, it is sadly the most positive thing he's done since coming over from Japan. That's the splinter of hope Twins fans must cling to with the failed import, so it's not hard to see why most have summarily dismissed the idea of his playing any role in the club's future, despite his contract. How nice it would be if he showed us something over the next two months to make us believe otherwise.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1743[/ATTACH]An outcome that has long seemed inevitable became a reality today when it was announced that pitching prospect Alex Wimmers was slated to undergo Tommy John surgery. It's a major setback in a career that hasn't really been able to get off the starting block. The story leading up to this news is a familiar and frustrating one. Back in April, Wimmers landed on the disabled list after one start with what was thought to be a minor elbow strain. An MRI exam in early May revealed a partial tear in his UCL. The Twins opted for rehab. He spent the next couple months wearing a stabilizer, resumed throwing in early July and took the mound later that month for a start in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Wimmers didn't make it through the first inning. He allowed three runs on four hits and a walk while recording two outs. After the outing, he reported discomfort in the elbow, and after another MRI the Twins opted for surgery. Between Wimmers, Scott Baker and Kyle Gibson, that's three instances in the past two seasons where the medical staff became aware of a pitcher's elbow issue and either misdiagnosed it or prescribed a futile rest/rehab solution. Take it back even further and you can include names like Pat Neshek and Francisco Liriano. Understandably, surgery is seen as a last resort, but in many of these cases the ultimately misguided decision to delay action can have a profoundly negative impact on these players' careers. For example, there's a chance Wimmers won't return until 2014, at which point he'll be a 25 with one career start above Single-A. Had he undergone surgery back in May when the tear was first discovered, he may have been able to come back midway through next season. I don't have nearly enough insight on the situation to condemn the medical staff and it's possible this happens just as frequently in other organizations, but on the surface it just looks bad – especially for a pitching-starved franchise with so little margin for error when it comes to handling its prospective young arms. Either way, complaining about the process avoids what is at the heart of this issue: terrible luck. The Twins had the foresight to addressing their upcoming dearth of starting pitching by drafting fast-track college starters in the first round two years in a row, and within a couple years of joining the organization each one succumbed to one of the most significant injuries a hurler can have. You can perhaps blame the Twins for pushing back timelines, but you can't blame them for the injuries themselves occurring. These are outside circumstances taking an immense toll on Terry Ryan's ability to rebuild a depleted rotation. For that, he should probably be cut some slack.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1715[/ATTACH]Tuesday's 3:00 PM trade deadline came and went with Minnesota, for a second consecutive year, standing pat. There's a lot of frustration being directed toward the Twins, who – unlike other cellar-dwellers around the league – weren't able to unload assets for impact prospects. Their only trade sent Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for a meager return. In short, the franchise did very little to aid its rebuilding effort. But, in reflecting on these past days, there's one very important point to keep in mind: no trade is better than a bad trade. Dealing away Liriano was essentially a no-brainer, given that he'll be a free agent at year's end. Shipping out Carl Pavano and Matt Capps would have also been obvious moves, even if there wasn't much coming back, but unfortunately both are sitting on the disabled list indefinitely (and still could be traded in August). The rest of the team's trade candidates, from Denard Span to Josh Willingham to Justin Morneau to Jared Burton to Glen Perkins, are all under control beyond this year. These aren't guys you trade just to trade. Given that every single one of those names has appeared in reported trade rumors over the past few days and weeks, it seems clear that Terry Ryan was busily working to assess their markets and find a sensible deal. In the end, he didn't get the kind of offers that he felt merited giving up pieces with long-term value. It's tough to blame him for that. There will be other opportunities to shop these players in the future (in fact, I suspect we'll see Span and Morneau's names floated quite a bit during the offseason). Earlier this week I wrote about a hard truth that became evident in the Liriano trade and also through some of the quotes surfacing from rival general managers about the the Twins' sky-high asking prices for their trade chips. For various reasons, despite the increased number of buyers, teams around the league just weren't willing to pay up for what the Twins were selling. In a situation like that, standing pat was really the only logical course of action. And it leaves Ryan with plenty of options during the offseason.