Nick Nelson

After adding Mike Pelfrey over the weekend, the Twins have now signed three free agent starters to join Kevin Correia in the rotation, adding around $25 million to the 2014 payroll in the process. At this point, one would figure that Terry Ryan is done investing in the rotation and is ready to turn his attention to the offense. And yet, the pitching rumors persist. Here's a quick glance at the latest offseason rumblings involving the local club: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * I felt that the chances of the Twins signing Bronson Arroyo went from slim to nil after Pelfrey was locked in, but Mike Berardino cites a source with direct knowledge as saying that the team still has "strong interest" in the veteran right-hander. With four starting spots essentially claimed and with Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley all remaining to compete for that final job, I am extremely skeptical that Ryan is serious about spending big on another multi-year contract. This could hamper the flexibility of a rotation that should be setting up to usher in some young homegrown talent over the next few years. I could see the Twins signing a guy like Arroyo if he was available at a price they viewed as a bargain. But Arroyo -- along with the rest of the remaining free agent crop -- isn't waiting around this long to sign for a discount, especially with a non-contender. Steam Rating: 2/5 * Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 reports the Twins are maintaining a dialogue with Johan Santana and that the former Cy Young winner is "very open to a return." Santana seems like a more sensible target than Arroyo. He won't require an expensive long-term deal (more like a minor-league pact with incentives) and I see no way he'd be a consideration to open the season in the rotation. Coming off his second major shoulder surgery since leaving Minnesota, Santana did not pitch at all in 2013 and -- last I heard -- hasn't even thrown off a mound yet. If he were to come aboard, it would likely be in the same capacity as Rich Harden last year. He'd spend the early part of the season rehabbing and building strength, and would hopefully be able to join up and make an impact at some point down the line. Even with the Twins' rotation becoming somewhat crowded, Santana would still stand a good chance of earning an opportunity here, and it's a place where he's comfortable. I could see it. Steam Rating: 3/5 * Prior to the Pelfrey signing, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick mentioned the Twins were monitoring free agent lefty Paul Maholm. Whether or not that interest remains is unclear, but Maholm is a logical target for the back end of the rotation. He'll be relatively inexpensive and has posted a solid 3.89 ERA while averaging 168 innings over the past three years. Most notably, Maholm is a left-hander, and the Twins currently have no southpaws slotted into the starting corps. Steam Rating: 2/5 * Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle named the Twins as one team with interest in catcher Kurt Suzuki. Suzuki is intriguing. He emerged as a fairly solid player early on in Oakland, but has really fallen off over the past few years, with a .237/.294/.357 hitting line since 2010. He's still only 30, he'll be cheap and he's got a good defensive reputation. Seems like a logical fit as a backup. I still think John Buck or another more well-traveled veteran is likelier, though. Steam Rating: 3/5 * On Tuesday, Jon Heyman tweeted that the Twins are among the teams looking at slugger Mark Reynolds. It's tough to make much sense of this one, because Reynolds is coming off an ugly season and really doesn't profile as a third baseman anymore, though that used to be his primary position. He's more of a 1B/DH type and the Twins already have an abundance of those with Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Jason Kubel and Chris Parmelee. More than anything, Reynolds seems redundant with Trevor Plouffe already on the team; the two share a decidedly similar skill set. Both are substandard corner infield defenders who strike out a lot, hit for low averages and mostly just offer pop from the right side. I'm still a believer in Plouffe, at least as a part-time asset, but if the Twins are actually making a push for Reynolds it's probably not a good sign for the third base incumbent. In combination with the Kubel signing, the Reynolds whispers indicate the Twins are looking for cheap power bats they can buy low. For all his flaws, Reynolds has cranked 202 homers in seven MLB seasons. Steam Rating: 2/5

On Saturday, the news we've been expecting for weeks finally arrived: the Twins have agreed to terms with Mike Pelfrey on a two-year contract. Ever since it was initially reported back in November that Minnesota had made a multi-year bid for the right-hander, there has been little question that a reunion was in store because, frankly, it seemed unlikely any other team would match. The move has been met with criticism from many fans and analysts[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], which is unsurprising considering that Pelfrey pitched quite poorly in his first year with the club. I expected to experience that same feeling of antipathy when the signing was inevitably announced. And yet... I am not. To be clear, I'm not a big fan of Pelfrey. Watching him pitch is a grind because he works slowly and uses tons of pitches. For the game-watching fan, he's kind of a drag. But that's secondary to the results he achieves. Those haven't been good either, of course, at least not since he put up a 3.66 ERA over 204 innings back in 2010. I didn't like the contract given to Pelfrey last year because I saw little upside in a one-year deal for a guy who wasn't great to begin with and was only 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery. The best-case scenario was that Pelf would get off to a rough start and come around during the latter part of the season boosting his own value going forward. That did happen, to some extent. The righty endured a miserable first two months, getting tagged for a 6.66 ERA and .907 OPS while completing six innings just twice in 11 starts. But he looked noticeably better from May through September, turning in a 4.44 ERA while allowing only seven homers in 101 innings. The overall numbers are far from dazzling, but that's why Pelfrey was available at such a low price. And at that price ($11 million plus incentives over two years), he stands a good chance of being a solid value for the back end of the rotation. Here are a couple key things to keep in mind: He revved his fastball back up to the mid-90s in 2013 despite being less than a year removed from elbow surgery, and on the season he posted a career-high 6.0 K/9 rate (including 6.7 in the final four months). Anyone who had become entangled in thoughts of a top-flight talent like Matt Garza is surely disappointed, but in my mind those reports were never realistic. The Twins weren't going to sign another pitcher to a four/five-year deal worth potentially upwards of $75 million after already committing that amount to a pair of hurlers in November. Those printed rumors struck me as a classic example of media being leveraged in negotiations -- either by the Twins (trying to motivate Pelfrey to sign) or by Garza's agent (trying to drum up the market). Once Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were on board, I sincerely doubt Terry Ryan was ever truly interested in adding Garza, or Masahiro Tanaka, or even Bronson Arroyo (who, at 36, simply doesn't fit as well with the organization's contention timeline as Pelfrey, who is still 29). Not at the prices they are going to eventually command. In all likelihood, the Twins are now done shopping for starting pitching. No one is going to look at their rotation -- which will include Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Kevin Correia and one returning arm -- and be blown away, but this group is a far more stable one than we've seen the past few years. The first four names are all experienced hurlers who made at least 29 starts in the majors last year. Leaving only one spot open puts the Twins in a position where they can pick the best of their internal candidates rather than counting on total question marks to fill multiple holes. I know it's hard to get excited about Pelfrey based on what we've seen. But it's important to view him for what he is: an inexpensive back-end piece whose contract won't constrict the Twins much in terms of years or money. And while last year's deal carried little upside, there's more to be found in this one. If Pelf can build on the things he did in the second half of 2013, he could turn out to be a pretty damn good value at around $7 million per year in his age 30 and 31 seasons.

Monday's Rumor Mill Round-Up included an update on Bronson Arroyo, who was set to meet with multiple teams -- including the Twins -- at this week's Winter Meetings. I judged the probability of a match being rather low, largely because I guessed the local club would cease to be aggressive bidders for a free agent of Arroyo's caliber after committing nearly $75 million Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, but Ken Rosenthal tweeted later in the day that the Twins were indeed making a push and that talks were "gaining momentum." [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] I'm still far from convinced that a deal will go down, but there's no denying the appearance of legitimate interest here. So what do the Twins see in Arroyo that would keep them involved even after adding two significant free agents to the mix? For precedence, I look to another veteran pitcher who was mentioned in Monday's round-up: Carl Pavano. It's no secret the Twins loved having Pavano around. After acquiring him from the Indians during the 2009 season, they kept him aboard in 2010 with a $7 million arbitration agreement and then re-signed him to a two-year, $16 million contract in the ensuing offseason. At the time, that was a massive free agent deal by their standards, and it pushed the 2011 payroll to a record $112 million. Pavano had earned the commitment with an outstanding 2010 campaign in which he went 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA over 221 innings, delivering seven complete games and two shutouts while helping lead a staff that dominated the AL Central. Clearly the Twins valued that effective durability very highly, and they probably value it even more in hindsight given what's transpired over the past couple years. Let's compare Pavano's 2010 to Arroyo's average output with the Reds over the past two seasons: Pavano, 2010: 221 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 Arroyo, 2012/13 (avg): 202 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 Those are very, very similar numbers. Much like Pavano, Arroyo is a veteran strike-thrower who has been reliable for 200-plus innings and has posted above-average core numbers. When the Twins re-signed Pavano in 2011, he was a 35-year-old with a fastball in the high 80s; Arroyo is presently a 36-year-old with a fastball in the high 80s. In a clear attempt to overhaul their shoddy rotation, the Twins have already added two established hurlers with a chance to make a real impact, but it appears they're still seeking a very veteran anchor for a group in which, even with Nolasco added, youth still rules the day. Arroyo is a risk for the many of the same reasons Pavano was a risk -- he's aging, his velocity is declining and he doesn't miss too many bats. But Arroyo also has a much more consistent history of durability and success. In many ways, he can be viewed as a rich man's Pavano, which might explain why the Twins are once again ready to step beyond their normal limits to pursue him.

As a handy one-stop shop for all Twins-related offseason rumors, we'll be running frequent "Rumor Mill Round-Up" columns here at Twins Daily, wherein we gather up all the recent rumblings involving the local club. With each rumor, we'll provide some analysis and a "Steam Rating," assigning a 1-5 score to the report based on the level of likelihood we'll actually see something materialize. With the annual Winter Meetings getting underway this week, here's a quick rundown of the players the Twins are being connected to: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * John Buck has "climbed to the top" of Minnesota's wish list at catcher, according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. With Jarrod Saltalamacchia and A.J. Pierzynski off the board, the Twins have apparently turned their attention to the veteran Buck as an option to ease the transition of young Josmil Pinto behind the plate. I viewed Buck as a likely target for Minnesota and listed him in my blueprint in the Offseason Handbook. I like that he'll be relatively cheap and can operate as a quality backup or a serviceable semi-regular starter in the event Pinto needs more time. Buck is far from a great hitter but he has averaged 119 games played and 16 homers over the past four seasons. The fact that Buck has worked extensively with Ricky Nolasco, a former teammate in Miami, probably enhances the probability of this match. I see the interest here being very real. Steam Rating: 5/5 * The Twins are one team that has expressed interest in Oakland's Brett Anderson, according to Susan Slusser, who does a fantastic job covering the Athletics for the San Francisco Chronicle. I wrote last week about the merits of pursuing Anderson, concluding that at the right price he'd be a great gamble for Terry Ryan. Whether A's GM Billy Beane is willing to deal the durability-challenged former top prospect for what we'd construe as the "right price" is unknown, but with his value depressed the Twins would be silly not to at least explore. Steam Rating: 3/5 * The Pirates are set to meet with Bronson Arroyo's agent, via ESPN's Buster Olney. The Twins were reported to be interested in Arroyo prior to the Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes signings, and there has been some buzz that their interest remains, although we haven't heard anything connecting the two sides in a while. I would guess that if the Twins are going to sign another starter, it will be more of a low-level signing, so Arroyo is probably not a realistic target unless his price really drops for some reason. Steam Rating: 2/5 UPDATE: ESPN 1500's Darren Wolfson says the Twins are meeting with Arroyo's agent on Monday afternoon, so there may be more to this possibility than we think. (h/t JimCrikket) * It sounds like former Twins starter Carl Pavano is interested in resuming his playing career but doesn't view the Twins as a likely destination, per Berardino. Pavano missed the entire 2013 season after rupturing his spleen in a freak shoveling incident. He told Berardino, "I'm going to give it a try. What else have I got?" Asked about the Twins specifically, he said he hasn't been in contact and added, "I think we're in different places. They need those younger guys in their rotation." Truth. Steam Rating: 1/5

Terry Ryan is acutely aware of how difficult it is to acquire front-end starting pitching. After trading Denard Span for Alex Meyer a year ago, he explained the logic behind giving up an established major-league regular for a player who hadn't yet played above Single-A, noting that with potential No. 1 starters, "Sometimes you've got to get them when they're in the early stages of their pro career or you aren't going to get them, period." He's right. Once a high-end pitching prospect reaches Triple-A or successfully transitions to the majors, he becomes exceedingly tough to pry away from his organization, because there's basically nothing more valuable in baseball than an inexpensive starter that you can slot near the top of your rotation. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins acquired an exceptional talent in Meyer, and paid a substantial price to do so, but also took on significant risk because the right-hander had made only 25 professional starts and was still multiple levels away from the majors. As Ryan noted, that's just the way you have to play the game unless you're looking to spend exorbitant amounts in free agency (as the Ddogers did last year with Zack Greinke) or give away a massive prospect haul (as the Royals did with James Shields). The only other ways to bring in a potential ace from the outside are to get creative or get lucky. The Twins have certainly accomplished the latter in the past (see: Johan Santana in the Rule 5 draft) but you can't count on that. I like creative solutions, which is why I'm very intrigued by Oakland's Brett Anderson. A former second-round draft pick, Anderson rose rapidly through the minor-league ranks, peaking as Baseball America's No. 7 prospect before he debuted in the majors at age 21 in 2009. In his first two seasons with the A's, the left-hander posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 225/67 K/BB ratio over 287 innings. Those are superb numbers, particularly when you consider his age and experience at the time. Unfortunately, Anderson was limited to 19 starts in 2010 by a forearm strain, setting off a depressing string of injuries that sent his promising career into a spiral. As is all too often the case, the forearm issue proved a precursor to Tommy John, which the southpaw underwent midway through the 2011 campaign. He spent most of 2012 recovering from the surgery, returning late in the year with strong results, though an oblique strain ended his season a bit prematurely. In 2013, Anderson appeared poised to make his triumphant return to the scene, but after six appearances he went down with an ankle injury that later turned out to be a stress fracture in his foot, costing him nearly his entire season. He returned in the final month and pitched exclusively out of the bullpen the rest of the way. With only 163 innings combined over the last three years, Anderson is an enormous durability risk. It's hard to know where he's at right now because there's just not much to go on in the way of recent performance. He's also owed $8 million next year with a $12 million option for 2015. Given that they made the playoffs without him this season (and just signed Scott Kazmir to a two-year contract), the A's may feel motivated to move Anderson and his salary commitment. So it's no surprise that they are rumored to be floating him. It goes without saying that Anderson is far from a sure thing at this point. But there are a few key points to keep in mind when assessing his situation. 1) He has already undergone Tommy John surgery, so his elbow should theoretically be good to go. 2) The ailments that have bothered him since that surgery -- an oblique strain and a foot fracture -- are non-arm injuries that don't figure to be long-term concerns. 3) He's still only 25. That last point is a big one. Anderson is a former top prospect who was at one point viewed as one of the finest young hurlers in the game, and he's still in his mid-20s. His circumstances have diminished his potential market, and while Billy Beane isn't exactly the type to give anything away, this is a situation where you could gamble on a special talent without selling the farm. Make no mistake... it definitely is a gamble. But with their deep farm system, their growing stable of backup-option starters and their dire need for upper-echelon pitching talent, it's one that the Twins are positioned as well as anyone to take. They are rumored to be one of the teams that has inquired about the southpaw, so we'll see if anything progresses next week when Ryan and Beane are both in Orlando for the Winter Meetings.

In their first turn through the rotation this past season, the Twins sent out Vance Worley, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Liam Hendriks and Pedro Hernandez. Opening the year with multiple backup plans already plugged into the starting five set the stage for a tumultuous campaign that exposed the organization's miserable starting pitching depth at the high levels. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Overly lengthy auditions for guys like Worley, Hernandez and Scott Diamond, along with painful redux performances from non-MLB talents like P.J. Walters and Cole De Vries, were all contributors in a season that saw Twins starters finish at the bottom of the majors in ERA, xFIP, WHIP and basically any other important category you could imagine. With two signings in the books already, and with at least one more expected to come, the Twins are now actually building something resembling depth in their starting corps, so that if someone gets hurt or struggles they might actually have multiple palatable options waiting on deck to step in, rather than uninspiring emergency plugs. It's been quite a while since that has been the case. With Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes already added to the mix to join Kevin Correia, and with many seeming to believe that one more veteran pitcher -- possibly Mike Pelfrey -- will still be enlisted, there may be only one opening available in the 2014 season-opening rotation. Terry Ryan has hinted that Samuel Deduno earned himself another chance, if healthy, with his strong performance in 2013. That would round out the rotation, meaning that a group including Worley, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Albers, Hendriks and Alex Meyer could be left on the outside looking in. That's undeniably an intriguing group. Not all are certain to remain within the organization if they don't latch onto the 25-man roster (some, like Worley and Diamond, will be out of options), but having a handful of pitchers with some history of MLB success -- or with legit prospect luster -- available in Triple-A would put the Twins in a very different position than they have been over the past three years. Worley was the Opening Day starter in 2013. Diamond was the team's best starter in 2012. Albers impressed during his debut, Meyer is the organization's top pitching prospect and Gibson offers sizable potential despite a rocky start. Any one of those guys has the potential to bounce back or emerge as a legitimate quality option, giving the Twins a much comfier margin for error with the guys currently slotted to comprise the rotation. Everyone wants to talk about the importance of adding an ace at the top, and that would certainly be nice, but having decent arms available to plug in at the back end if someone gets hurt or isn't performing can be almost just as important over the course of a 162-game season.

Answering the same question over and over again had to be growing tiresome for Twins officials. Because baseball fans in general are becoming increasingly analytical in the way they watch the game (this site serves as a great example), and because the organization has earned a reputation for taking a more traditional, scouting-based approach, seemingly every interview with an exec or front office member has included some query on the Twins' progress in the area of statistical analysis. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This placed Terry Ryan, or Rob Antony, or Jack Goin, or whoever, in the tough position of needing to reveal enough about their internal process to satisfy skeptics while withholding enough so as not to give away any kind of competitive advantage. The refrain has always been the same: We do have a statistics department, they do have influence and we are not as behind the times as everyone seems to think. Yet, while that all sounds nice, it's been hard to buy into because the actions simply have not matched the words. With a pitching staff that was already drastically out of line with the league-wide proliferation of high-strikeout arms, the Twins last year signed two more contact-heavy hurlers whose peripheral numbers suggested little upside. This year has been a much different story. Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes aren't superstars, but they are certainly the type of pitchers that a club leaning on deeper statistics might be expected to target. Nolasco's career 4.37 ERA isn't too impressive, but for many years he has been a darling of the sabermetric community because of his consistently strong fielding independent marks. In all but one of the past six seasons, his xFIP has been lower than 3.70, thanks in large part to his outstanding K/BB ratios. The superior secondary numbers haven't frequently translated into top-tier performance, but if you're going to take a chance and make a large investment in a guy, he's a sound choice based on the underlying indicators. The same can be said for Hughes. He's got his obvious warts -- he's exceeded 150 innings in a season only once, he has been extremely homer-prone and he's coming off a 5.19 ERA -- but there's plenty to like about this signing. As a fly ball pitcher, Hughes was miscast in Yankee Stadium, where pop-ups seem to sometimes find the seats. This was reflected by a 1-10 record and 6.32 ERA in the home yard this past season. Pitching in spacious Target Field should alleviate some of the righty's gopher ball issues while hopefully allowing his strengths to manifest. A former first-round draft pick and top prospect, Hughes throws in the mid-90s and is capable of missing bats, albeit not at a spectacular rate. Much like Nolasco, his secondary numbers are the most appealing thing about him. These signings weren't about simply getting guys who can go out and throw 180 innings, as we've seen too often in the past. These were about bringing in established arms with real, meaningful upside. That's precisely what needs to be done at this point. I've been as disenchanted with the front office as anyone over the past couple years, but this past week has really restored a lot of my faith. I like the aggressiveness, I like the approach, I like the decisions. Are these moves guaranteed to work out? Of course not. But if they don't, the Twins can say they tried and based their investments on good science. And they've still got lots of offseason left to continue demonstrating their seriousness. If Ryan is walking with a bit of a strut when he shows up at the Winter Meetings in Orlando next week, he'll have earned the right.