Nick Nelson

Per ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, the Minnesota Twins have signed Jason Bartlett to a minor-league contract, and the veteran shortstop will compete for a job in spring training next year. Bartlett, of course, first reached the majors as a member of the Twins organization in 2004. He was acquired from the Padres as a minor-leaguer in 2002 in exchange for outfielder Brian Buchanan. In parts of four seasons as a Twin, Bartlett hit .272/.341/.362 over 1,208 plate appearances. He was traded to Tampa Bay in 2007 as part of the Delmon Young deal, went on to have a career year in 2009, and later landed in San Diego, where he was eventually derailed by injury. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Bartlett hit .245/.308/.307 over 139 games in 2011, his first year with the Padres, in 2012 he was limited to 29 games by a knee injury, batting just .133. He didn't play at all in 2013 while focusing on healing. He's now 34 and basically hasn't played in two years, making him an extreme long shot, but there's nothing wrong with adding some depth to the shortstop position. Pedro Florimon, who started 127 games there this season while posting a miserable .611 OPS, had stood as the only contender. The hope is that Bartlett's time away from the game has strengthened his balky knee, enabling him to come back and show something in camp. At worst, he'll simply provide a touch of nostalgia for Twins fans who remember his tremendous contribitions in 2006 after replacing Juan Castro, when he helped push the club to an historic second-half comeback in the AL Central. What are your thoughts on the return of Jason Bartlett?

"There isn't any shortcut to get where we want to go." Although the above quote from Terry Ryan was published back in February, the sentiment has been a common refrain for the Twins' general manager throughout his ongoing efforts to rebuild a broken product in Minnesota. No shortcuts. And why not? It's a nice-sounding way to quell the growing calls from a disgruntled fan base for aggressive measures to restore the franchise to contention. Shortcuts sound bad. They sound lazy, and sloppy, and potentially harmful in the grand scheme. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] But when you more closely examine that mentality, and the present state of the organization, it's awfully tough not to be disenchanted by the front office's apparent commitment to building internally and avoiding impactful additions that may prove costly. In terms of position players, the Twins are set up to fill their needs from within the system. Whether in the outfield (Byron Buxton, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks), the infield (Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Danny Santana) or catcher (Josmil Pinto) there are a number of candidates to lend support at the major-league level within the next few years. On the pitching side, the situation is considerably more dire. Alex Meyer is presently lighting up radar guns in Arizona, touching 100 MPH with his fastball, and he is the shining beacon in the high levels of the organization. However, he also may be the lone hope for top-of-rotation support within the next several years. Kyle Gibson stumbled in his big-league debut and appears to lack dominant upside, though I remain confident in his ability to become a quality MLB player. Trevor May could be destined for the bullpen. Beyond those three, there aren't really any legit pitching prospects to be found on the farm above Single-A. Names like J.O. Berrios, Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe deservedly draw attention, but they're all teenagers and shouldn't realistically be expected to become rotation staples for four or five years, at least. So if indeed the Twins are unwilling to take "shortcuts" in the process of rebuilding their starting corps, we could be looking at a depressingly lengthy timeline. Considering just how far behind the pack the Twins are lagging in the starting pitching department, it's hard to imagine Meyer and the existing mish-mash of iffy talent aligning to create a rotation that is any kind of true asset within the next handful of seasons. Outside help is needed. That might require taking steps that could be viewed as shortcuts. It might require an approach that Ryan has consistently eschewed: building through free agency. Of course, there are other ways to acquire ready or near-ready pitching talent. We saw that last year, when Ryan dealt away Denard Span and Ben Revere to bring aboard two high-level prospects and an established guy in Vance Worley. But the Twins are now almost completely bereft of desirable trade chips at the big-league level, and giving up prospects sort of contradicts the whole rebuilding concept. Signing free agent talent costs nothing but money (and maybe a second-round draft pick, if you're ambitious). Now, obviously, any move that endangers the club's long-term outlook would be ill-advised at this point. So Ryan should clearly avoid making sizable commitments to aging veterans that would restrict his ability to spend in future years. But there are plenty of 30-and-under pitchers entering the market, and the Twins aren't remotely close to hitting any sort of payroll ceiling, now or in the near future. Ryan and his staff have frequently scoffed at the notion of taking shortcuts to address their problems, but the current layout of the organization calls for an influx of more immediate pitching help, if the Twins truly hope to field a high-caliber rotation within the next several years. As loyal as ownership has been to Ryan, Ron Gardenhire and the rest of the gang, I can't imagine they'll continue to stick with the current leadership if the team remains stuck in a holding pattern while waiting for teenagers to develop into major-league pitchers. All of which reinforces my belief that the Twins will, indeed, spend this offseason.

Over the past two weeks, I've profiled five different high-end starting pitchers that the Twins may be inclined to pursue on the free agent market. Of course, those who have followed this organization could be excused for expressing skepticism over the likelihood of one of these big names actually landing in Minnesota, even with signals that the club plans to be "uber-aggressive" in its search for arms. Simply put, Terry Ryan has never acquired an expensive big-name pitcher through free agency. Ever. When it comes to signing highly sought pitchers in a competitive market, the Twins don't have much of an advantage.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] They're unlikely to offer an overwhelming sum of money and they certainly can't tout an immediately competitive environment. But one area where they may have an edge on opponents is the realm of risk/reward arms, with major question marks but significant upside. Think Rich Harden. Now, obviously last year's Harden signing was an extreme long shot that paid no dividends, but the underlying reasoning was sound. It was a no-risk move that added a talented arm to the mix at virtually no cost, and for his part, Harden was likely compelled to come here because of the wide-open opportunity in the rotation. The Twins will face a similar scenario this offseason. Ryan has stated that only Kevin Correia and (if healthy) Sam Deduno are assured spots in the 2014 starting corps, with the remaining group of contenders looking even weaker than it did at this time a year ago. Any pitchers with depressed value looking to reestablish themselves with an incentive-laden one-year MLB contract or a minor-league deal could see Minnesota as an attractive destination. So, which pitchers in this year's free agent crop fall into that category? Let's take a look at some: Edinson Volquez, RHP, Age 30 In 2008, the year after the Reds acquired him in exchange for Josh Hamilton, Volquez looked like quite the get. At age 24, the right-hander went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA, earning an All-Star appearance and finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Unfortunately, it's pretty much been all downhill for the Dominican hurler ever since. While he's flashed glimpses of potential, Volquez's career has largely been marred by injuries and erratic performance. He hasn't posted an above-average ERA since that rookie campaign. In 2012 he led the league in walks issued. In 2013 he led the league in earned runs allowed, despite totaling only 170 innings. Volquez was released by the Padres in mid-August with a 6.01 ERA. He latched on with the Dodgers and pitched reasonably well in the final month (4.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 28 innings) but nonetheless it seems unlikely that any contending team will want to guarantee him anything. The Twins, meanwhile, could afford to gamble on his mid-90s fastball and hope that their pitching staff can coax more strikes. Roy Halladay, RHP, Age 36 Halladay's drop-off has been rather precipitous. Just two years ago he was continuing his reign as the most effective workhorse in the game, winning 19 games with a 2.35 ERA over 233 innings to finish second in the Cy Young voting. In nine seasons from 2003 to 2011, Halladay led his league in complete games seven times. Doc's right arm is a modern marvel, but it's looking like the extremely taxing workload has finally caught up with him in his mid-30s. In 2012 he posted an uncharacteristically mediocre 4.49 ERA while being limited to 156 innings, his lowest total since 2005. His 2013 season was almost completely wiped out by shoulder problems, as he managed to get through just 62 innings with a brutal 6.82 ERA while his average fastball velocity dropped to 88 MPH. Halladay was shut down in September due to dead arm and it sure does look like he's completely drained at this point, but this is a likely Hall of Famer who is young enough yet that a rebound can't be ruled out. Johan Santana, LHP, Age 34 This is the guy that everyone wants to talk about. The idea of a Twins/Santana reunion is highly appealing to those who wish to relive the glory days, when Minnesota ruled over the AL Central in large part thanks to their premier ace and his unhittable changeup. Those glory days are a distant memory at this point, however, for both Santana and the Twins. While the club has futilely searched for a successor at the top of the rotation, the lefty has seen his career unravel along with his left shoulder. Santana has pitched only 117 innings over the past three years, with all of those coming in 2012 when he went 6-9 with a 4.85 ERA. In September of 2010 he underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his shoulder, and he was forced to undergo the same surgery again in April of this year after re-tearing the shoulder capsule. His prognosis at this point is not good, but the two-time Cy Young winner is still only 34 and at least looked decent after returning from his first surgery, putting up a 4.02 xFIP and averaging 8.5K/9 (his highest number since leaving the Twins) in 2012. He even threw a no-hitter. It would be a pretty cool story if he was able to revive his career back in MN. Shaun Marcum, RHP, Age 31 Despite his outstanding recent performance, including three straight seasons with a below average ERA, Marcum drew little interest on the free agent market last year due to health concerns, and wound up settling for a one-year deal worth $4 million. It turned out that the league-wide caution regarding Marcum was well warranted, as the righty ended up making just 14 appearances (12 starts) and posting a 5.29 ERA before his season ended in July due to thoracic outlet syndrome. He underwent surgery and will likely be seeking a minor-league deal this offseason. His health is an even greater point of an uncertainty than it was last year, but hopefully his procedure can clear up the arm problems that have bothered him in back-to-back seasons. He still has his relative youth and a steady track record to fall back on. Colby Lewis, RHP, Age 34 Lewis missed the entire 2013 season due to surgeries on his elbow and hip, but had established himself as a quality pitcher prior to the health woes. In his three seasons with the Rangers following a return from Japan in 2010, he registered a 3.93 ERA along with a 458/135 K/BB ratio in 506 innings. As a guy who has demonstrated the ability to throw strikes, miss bats and limit hits -- with his issues largely stemming from a high home run rate in Arlington -- Lewis looks like a very strong fit for Target Field and the Twins. Gavin Floyd, RHP, Age 30 Another example of a homer-prone hurler who may benefit from Target Field's spacious confines, Floyd has been a steadily solid yet unspectacular pitcher in Chicago for many years. From 2008 through 2012, he never posted an ERA lower than 3.84 nor one higher than 4.37. He'd be an appealing target for the Twins if not for his enormous health concerns, which overshadow anyone else on this list. Floyd underwent two surgeries on his right elbow in May of this year, repairing both his UCL and flexor muscle. The recovery timeline for such a procedure is 14-19 months, meaning it will be tough to count on the righty to provide anything in 2014.

So far in this Free Agent Pitcher Profile series, I have taken a look at four different high-profile names on the market, all of whom strike me as logical fits for the Twins for specific reasons. Tim Lincecum has his strikeout proficiency. Phil Hughes has his youth. Ubaldo Jimenez has his ace upside. Ervin Santana has his stinginess with hits and base runners. Josh Johnson has the potential to offer all the above. But he's also coming off a worse season than any of the aforementioned hurlers, and he recently underwent "minor" surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (We saw how that type of thing went with Vance Worley and Scott Diamond this year.) Because of those factors, he figures to be far more affordable than the rest of the high-end free agent crop, and probably won't require a long-term commitment, meaning he might be right be in the Twins' wheelhouse. Why Does He Fit? For a seven-year stretch with the Marlins from 2006 through 2012, Johnson was one of the premier performers in the National League, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while allowing just 59 home runs in 904 innings. The righty routinely posted strong strikeout rates, induced a fair share of grounders, and was on multiple occasions a legitimate Cy Young candidate (especially in 2010 when he finished with a 2.30 ERA). When he's healthy and at his best, Johnson has been a true ace. He doesn't turn 30 until January so age isn't a major concern, and while arm issues bogged him down this season the hope is that an offseason elbow clean-up will restore him to his previous level of effectiveness. Given his situation, Johnson seems almost certain to take a one-year make-good deal. That involves little risk, and while such a short contract wouldn't seem to fit with the Twins' long-term rebuilding plan, a strong bounceback season would give the club a lot of options. They could flip him before the deadline for prospects, or seek to lock him up with a long-term deal that would entrench him at the top of their rotation for several years. It's worth noting that Johnson was born in Minneapolis, so he might be slightly more inclined to view the Twins as a landing spot, though that shouldn't be assumed. Why Doesn't He Fit? Johnson's health is a major question mark, and that's nothing new. Durability concerns have plagued his entire career. He's reached 200 innings only once. Since first becoming a full-time big-leaguer in 2006, he has averaged fewer than 20 starts per year. And now he's coming off a season in which he battled forearm pain, posted a hideous 6.20 ERA and finished with just 81 innings. As he leaves the Blue Jays, Johnson has about as many red flags attached to him as a Canadian parade. That could repel a Twins club seeking to add reliability to a rotation that had only one member throw more than 152 innings in 2013. What Will He Cost? There seems to be widespread agreement that Johnson will seek a one-year deal, because it simply doesn't make much sense for him to do anything else. Nobody's going to make a huge commitment to a guy with an ominous medical situation, but Johnson has enough talent and track record that he could probably strike it big in a year if he returns to form in 2014. So what it will likely come down to is who can offer the most attractive situation for him this year. Money is part of that equation. In the Offseason Handbook, we guessed that he'd end up getting $7 million. More than likely he'll prefer to link up with a contender, but perhaps the Twins can sway him by significantly outbidding other interested parties. Jim Pohlad himself has said that he's willing to spend "any amount of money" on a current year contract, which would seemingly indicate that if Terry Ryan likes Johnson, the general manager will have approval to do whatever it takes to bring aboard the sometimes injured, sometimes elite starter.

The Royals took a gamble last offseason when they traded for Ervin Santana, who was coming off an ugly season in Anaheim where he went 9-13 with a 5.16 ERA while coughing up a league-leading 39 home runs. Kansas City didn't have to give up much in the deal, but they did take on a $12 million commitment to a pitcher in the wake of a poor season. For a club that's hardly been known for aggressive, win-now type moves, the splash certainly drew some attention (especially in combination with the blockbuster James Shields trade). The Royals ended up with their highest win total (86) since 1989 this season, and Santana played a big part, bouncing back in a major way to post a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 211 innings.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Considering that the right-hander had preceded his 2012 clunker with strong seasons in both 2011 and 2010, his down year looks like the outlier. As a 30-year-old with a recent record of success and the ability to miss some bats, Santana is arguably the top starting pitcher openly available this winter outside of Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka. Are the Twins prepared to become involved in what is sure to be a competitive market with the hopes of once again adding a Santana to the top of their rotation? Let's take a look at the pros and cons. Why Does He Fit? On a basic level, the problem with Twins pitching these days is quite obvious: they allow way too many hits. As a staff in 2013, they allowed the most knocks of any MLB team (1,591) and among the 11 pitchers that made at least one start for Minnesota, nine allowed an average of more than 10.0 hits per nine innings. To put that in some context, the American League average for H/9IP was 8.8 and only four qualifying pitchers finished the season with a mark of 10.0 or above. Santana would be a refreshing change of pace. His career H/9IP rate is 8.7 and he hasn't allowed more than a hit per inning since 2009. Even in 2012, when he struggled, Santana held opponents to a .238 batting average and registered a solid 1.27 WHIP; his disappointing results were largely tied to an absurdly high home run rate that was mostly out of line with the rest of his career, and almost surely wouldn't be repeated at Target Field. While he had a few elbow issues crop up in 2012 (another part of the reason Kansas City took a risk in acquiring him) he's mostly been injury-free since 2009, averaging 32 starts and 210 innings per season. Why Doesn't He Fit? Well, cost is going to be the main factor. I'm willing to believe that Terry Ryan and the Twins are prepared loosen the purse strings for a guy they really like, but even as a strong fit Santana may have priced himself out of their range with an outstanding season in KC. Since he carries fewer question marks than fellow top free agent talents such as Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Phil Hughes, Santana could be the most coveted option for clubs seeking reliable help at the top of the rotation (and looking to avoid the Tanaka sweepstakes). That means he may be looking at a contract approaching (or even exceeding) $100 million. Other than his price tag, it's tough to name a reason the Twins shouldn't at least pursue Santana. He's largely been a very good pitcher in recent years, he's reasonably young, he throws hard with good command and he's been quite durable. He's probably not going to be an "ace" in the traditional sense, but he might be the closest thing you'll find on this year's market. He's a safer bet than most of the alternatives. What Will He Cost? Offseason Handbook estimate: five years, $80 million. As always, the contract could easily prove larger since we can't really anticipate how much the new revenues will inflate the market, but I have a hard time believing he'll get less than that. Santana is coming off a career year and has a more consistently strong recent MLB track record than any of his free agent peers.

The Indians made a bold move at the trade deadline in 2011, trading away multiple top prospects to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez, a 27-year-old right-hander who was viewed at the time as one of the premier pitching talents in the National League. An imposing presence with a mid-90s fastball, Jimenez had steadily improved in the seasons leading up to 2010, when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA to finish third in the Cy Young voting. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Jimenez wasn't been the same guy over the first half of the 2011 season in Colorado, posting a 4.46 ERA with significantly diminished velocity, but Cleveland still jumped at the opportunity to add a potential ace in his physical prime. As it turned out, the righty's troubles only worsened after the trade. He put up a 5.10 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch while the Indians rapidly faded from contention, and then trudged through a tumultuous 2012 campaign in which he lost 17 games with a 5.40 ERA, adding a career-high 4.8 BB/9 and a career-low 7.3 K/9. In two years, Jimenez had gone from superstar to liability. He bounced back in a major way this season, and the timing could hardly have been better for him. In his final year under contract, Jimenez went 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA, pushing his K-rate all the way back up 9.6 while showing dramatically improved control. Although his velocity dropped for a third consecutive year, his secondary stuff was as good as ever, and in the second half Jimenez looked every bit the part of a No. 1 starter, posting a 1.82 ERA and 100/27 K/BB ratio while holding opponents to a .606 OPS. He notched double-digit strikeouts in four of his last eight starts. Why Does He Fit? His performance this season, especially toward the end, is awfully tantalizing. That's a guy that could legitimately be called an ace -- something the Twins have mostly lacked since Johan Santana's departure. He also doesn't turn 30 until January, so in theory you're not looking at any imminent decline. While he's had his ups and downs in terms of performance and there are questions about the condition of his arm based on draining gas, he's been able to take the mound every five days throughout his career up to this point. Jimenez has made 31-plus starts in each of his six seasons since becoming a full-time big-leaguer. Only six pitchers have made more starts since 2008. Why Doesn't He Fit? There are no two ways about it: Jimenez is a massive risk. Even though he was able to succeed with a 91 MPH fastball this year, his steadily declining velocity is clearly a red flag, and he's still only a year removed from being one of the worst pitchers in the league. Considering his age, his recent performance and the state of the market, Jimenez will surely require a sizable long-term deal. The Twins might have to go above and beyond what others are offering in order to lure him to a current non-contender. As enticing as his upside is, the downside may simply be too great to justify an unprecedented financial commitment. Beyond the money, signing Jimenez would also probably cost the Twins a high draft pick, as Cleveland seems likely to make a qualifying offer. What Will He Cost? The Offseason Handbook pegs his estimated contract at four years and $64 million, which coincidentally is the same guess we made on Tim Lincecum, who was profiled here on Tuesday. Lincecum ended up inking an extension with the Giants later that day at two years and $35 million. What does that tell us about Jimenez, who is similar to Lincecum in that his velocity has declined as he's approached 30? Compared to The Freak, Jimenez would seem to offer a lower ceiling and deeper floor, but he's also coming off a much better year. Sixty-four million still looks like a reasonable guess to me. Would you pay that for a 30-year-old who was an ace this season, but mostly a disaster in the two years preceding?

Once upon a time, Phil Hughes was among the most highly touted pitching prospects in the game. A former first-round pick, he emerged as a dominant force in the minors, climbing to the No. 4 spot on Baseball America's list of top prospects before debuting in the majors at age 20 in 2007. Sadly, the right-hander has never lived up to his immense promise. With a career 4.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, he has essentially been the definition of "average" over the course of his seven years with the Yankees. Most disturbingly, he has deteriorated as he's aged toward his physical prime.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hughes had some fairly impressive campaigns earlier in his career, including an 18-win 2010 season, but over the past three years he has posted a 4.85 ERA (86 ERA+), and fielding-independent metrics don't suggest that his results are greatly out of line with his performance. Why Does He Fit? Hughes offers two primary attractions: his age and the potential that he'll improve once removed from the AL East and hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. By virtue of his early entry into the majors, Hughes hits free agency for the first time at the uncommonly young age of 27. That means that -- unlike with most veterans on the open market -- he could be signed to a long-term deal that won't necessarily take him into his mid-30s. Unfortunately, as discussed above, while ages 27-32 are generally thought to be a player's physical prime, Hughes hasn't shown the improvement you'd like to see while edging toward this window. Still, considering that he's less than a year older than Kyle Gibson, he clearly fits into the Twins' long-term timeline better than a guy over 30. Undoubtedly, Target Field would be a better environment for him than the ballpark in the Bronx. Hughes is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and one of his most glaring issues has been proneness to the long ball. Over the past three seasons, he has coughed up 68 homers in 411 innings -- an average of 1.49 HR/9 that ranks as the fifth-highest in the majors during that span. It stands to reason that many of those deep flies would die in the spacious gaps of Target Field, and then his consistently solid K/BB ratios become a whole lot more intriguing. The notion that a change of scenery would benefit Hughes is backed up by his home/road splits; this year, he went 1-10 with a 5.88 ERA and 17 homers allowed in 16 starts at Yankee Stadium, compared to 3-4 with a 3.88 ERA and seven home runs allowed in 13 road starts. Why Doesn't He Fit? The Twins are seeking a starter who is a proven producer -- a guy who has been durable and has eaten up innings. Hughes doesn't really fit that bill. He has never thrown 200 innings in a season and has averaged just 147 since becoming a full-time starter. He completed six innings in 13 of his 29 starts this season. Only as a reliever has he excelled over an extended period. Hughes was a high-end talent while coming up through the minors and he's flashed that ability at times in the majors, but in the current climate he'll likely require a significant investment, which would mean taking a major leap of faith. That would be pretty uncharacteristic for Terry Ryan and these Twins. What Will He Cost? In the Offseason Handbook, we estimated Hughes' contract at three years, $30 million. That's seemingly a large amount to guarantee a guy who hasn't really produced in recent years, but the righty's youth -- in combination with his pedigree and potential -- could create a bidding war of sorts in a pitching-starved market where money is more flush than ever. On the bright side, because of the hurler's poor performance this year -- especially down the stretch (he posted a 7.22 ERA in August and September) -- it sounds unlikely that the Yankees will extend a qualifying offer, meaning that signing him won't cost a draft pick.

It's no secret: the Twins are going to be in the market for starting pitching this offseason. In the Offseason Handbook, you'll find a comprehensive list of free agents at the position, along with brief writeups and contract estimates. Here on Twins Daily, we'll take five members of the FA pitching crop that may be of particular interest to the Twins and dive in with a little more depth. Today we start the series with Tim Lincecum. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Also known as The Freak, Lincecum came up with the Giants in 2007 and almost immediately emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 2008, his second MLB season, he won the NL Cy Young by going 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA and league-leading 265 strikeouts. He followed up with another Cy Young in 2009, when he went 15-7 with a 2.48 ERA and once again led the league in strikeouts. His initial success enabled Lincecum to rapidly reach big paydays. In his third season, he qualified for arbitration as a Super 2 and earned $9 million. His salary continued to escalate over the next three years and this season he made $22 million. However, while his income rose, his performance declined. In 2012 Lincecum posted a 5.18 ERA and led the NL in losses with 15. This year he rebounded to some extent but was still well below average, going 10-14 with a 4.37 ERA while his K/9 rate dropped to a career-low 8.8. Lincecum's name still looms large, but he has experienced worrisome decline as he's aged into his late 20s, with his average fastball velocity dropping from 94 MPH in 2008 to 90 MPH in 2013. Why Does He Fit? Even though his results weren't great this year, Lincecum still piled up strikeouts at a solid rate, averaging nearly one per inning and fanning eight or more hitters on 10 occasions (a feat that, of course, no Twins starter managed all season long). If the Twins are serious about reversing their severe Vitamin K deficiency, Lincecum would be a natural target. Adding to Lincecum's appeal is his relatively low stock. Acquiring a former Cy Young winner under the age of 30 would normally require a massive long-term deal, but the right-hander's regression in the past two seasons will likely scare many suitors away from taking a huge plunge. For his part, Lincecum may be inclined to settle into Target Field for a year or two with the hopes of reestablishing his value. For what it's worth, his xFIP marks in the past two seasons have been 3.82 and 3.56, so the underlying peripherals suggest that -- while he's not the same guy he once was -- he's a better pitcher than his recent results show. Why Doesn't He Fit? It's difficult to trust a guy who has posted a 4.76 ERA over the past two seasons while his velocity and strikeout rates have continued to drop. Lincecum exhibits many signs of a guy who isn't fully functional. Has his arm simply worn down after being put through more than 1,000 innings of work in his first five seasons? That doesn't sound like the kind of player you want to be making a sizable investment in; then again, Lincecum has been incredibly durable up to this point, making 32-plus starts in each of the past six seasons. That's something the Twins value highly. What Will He Cost? Lincecum is a tough one to figure out. In the Handbook, we project that the righty will require four years and $64 million to lock up, but it's not hard to see the cost being significantly higher or lower. It all comes down to a couple key questions. Will general managers around the league focus more on his track record and age, or his declining performance and velocity? Will Lincecum himself be shopping around for the biggest possible offer, or will he opt instead for a short-term deal with the hopes of rebounding and boosting his marketability? Whatever the case, given that Lincecum leads all major-league pitchers in strikeouts since his first full season in 2008 and doesn't figure to be exorbitantly expensive, he should certainly draw some interest from the game's most K-starved franchise.

Last October in this space, I predicted five outcomes that would unfold for the Minnesota Twins in the ensuing offseason. As it turned out, three proved accurate and the other two proved laughably, laughably wrong. As we look ahead to another offseason, which some are painting as one of the most important in franchise history, here's another set of predictions -- some bold, some not -- for what I expect to see in the coming months: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 1) The Twins will make a bid for Masahiro Tanaka but will come up short of the winning post. As a 24-year-old with the ability to become a long-term asset at the top of a rotation, Tanaka seems like a logical fit for the Twins. Given their budget surplus, they are poised to place an aggressive bid on the Japanese star, who appears to be the best pitcher available on the open market this year. However, with new revenues flowing in for all 30 MLB teams, and with a number of large-market big spenders showing interest in Tanaka, I suspect that the posting fee may set a new record (beating Yu Darvish's $51 million) and there's no way I can see Terry Ryan wading into those waters. 2) A veteran catcher will be signed. Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit both suffered concussions during the 2013 season and were held away from catching duties in the final months. It's unclear how either of those two will be handled going forward, and Josmil Pinto looks like a nice young option to step in, but with all the uncertainty going on, the Twins may see a need to add a seasoned defensive specialist to the mix. A veteran with a reputation for working well with pitchers would make a great of sense. 3) Terry Ryan will hand out the largest free agent contract in franchise history. The bar isn't set very high. Josh Willingham's three-year, $21 million deal signed in 2011 currently holds the title, and with costs expected to rise (perhaps dramatically) across the league, that amount probably won't go very far this winter. I'm not saying they're going to be inking any nine-digit commitments, but if the Twins want to add any kind of impact talent they will need to spend at a level that is unprecedented by their own standards. They'll have more than enough money available to do so. 4) Miguel Sano will emerge as the favorite to start 2014 at third base. Presently Sano looks like a long shot to claim a spot on the MLB roster out of spring training next year. He has spent only half a season in Double-A, and the Twins are surely gun shy about aggressive promotions for top prospects after the Aaron Hicks experiment blew up in their faces. Of course, Sano is in another category of talent entirely. He slugged .610 with 35 homers between Single-A and Double-A this season, and people within the organization have raved about his defensive progression as he nearly cut his error total in half from the previous year (42 in 2012, 23 in 2013). Over the course of the offseason, I believe we'll hear more and more buzz surrounding Sano's potential to win a spot in March; at that point, it will be up to the 20-year-old to capitalize. 5) Brian Duensing will be non-tendered. This is a bit of a stretch because Duensing has been an effective pitcher and is well liked by the organization. But he's eligible to go to arbitration for a second time and his salary could rise above $2 million. That's a fair amount to spend on a lefty specialist out of the bullpen and, while the Twins are hardly hurting for cash, they might prefer to save a little by going with cheaper in-house options such as Caleb Thielbar and Pedro Hernandez.

If there's one area of the Twins roster that you can look at and feel completely comfortable, both now and going forward, it's the bullpen. On the left-handed side, their best arm is the closer, but they also have Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar, with Pedro Hernandez also offering some potential. In terms of right-handers, there's Jared Burton and Casey Fien topping the depth chart, with Anthony Swarzak anchoring the long role. That's six relief jobs that you can already consider claimed for next year, meaning that there will probably be only one opening available for the taking.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] With Josh Roenicke outrighted and likely out of the picture, many contenders stand in line to join the bullpen as useful right-handed relievers, both in the immediate future and down the line. Let's take a look at them. Michael Tonkin, 23 Tonkin's outstanding major-league debut this season flew under the radar, at least from my perspective. He came up for one appearance in July, then another in August, and got a more extended look in September at a time when many fans had stopped paying attention. I personally saw Tonkin pitch maybe twice in the final month, because I was watching fewer games at that point and, when I did watch, I often tuned out after the Twins fell into an early hole. (Interestingly, Tonkin made nine appearances this season and didn't pitch in a single winning effort.) Tonkin didn't pitch quite as well as his stellar 0.79 ERA suggests, because he also allowed five unearned runs, but his peripherals were solid (1.06 WHIP, 10/3 K/BB ratio in 11 1/3 innings) and he flashed a powerful fastball that averaged nearly 95 MPH. He has established himself over the past couple seasons as the organization's best relief prospect, with setup or even closer potential, and is easily the favorite to claim the open spot in next year's bullpen. Ryan Pressly, 24 That Pressly spent the entire 2013 season in the majors was more a function of necessity than his performance. The Twins needed to keep the Rule 5 draftee on the 25-man roster all year long in order to keep him in the organization and, to his credit, Pressly made it fairly easy to do so. Over 49 appearances he totaled 76 2/3 innings, operating as a hybrid middle/long reliever and achieving solid results with a 3.87 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Based on his lack of strikeouts (5.8 K/9) and his mediocre control (3.2 BB/9) it's tough to see the right-hander maintaining that effectiveness long-term unless he makes noticeable improvements, but at least the organization will be able to keep him around and figure what they want to do with him. There's been some talk of moving Pressly back into a starting role, even though he struggled mightily as a starter in the minors before being transitioned to the bullpen. A.J. Achter, 25 It's unknown whether Achter will eventually make an impact in the majors, but he has already easily surpassed his draft status simply by emerging as a legitimate prospect. A 46th-round pick out of Michigan State University back in 2010, Achter has registered a 3.17 ERA in four minor-league seasons while averaging 9.6 K/9. This year, he pitched well enough in the first half at New Britain to earn a promotion to Rochester, where he finished with a 3.04 ERA in 16 appearances. Now, the 25-year-old is participating in the Arizona Fall League, where he has a chance to further establish himself as a contender to join next year's relief corps. His biggest obstacle at this point is command; in 60 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year, he issued 33 walks. Zach Jones, 22 Joining Achter in the AFL is Jones, who is farther away from the majors but also possesses considerably more upside. Acquired in the fourth round of the 2012 draft, Jones has barely gotten his pro career started but has already demonstrated the ability to dominate, with 104 strikeouts and a 1.97 ERA in his first 68 2/3 innings in the Twins organization. Much like Achter, he needs to refine his control (5.1 BB/9 rate), but he has proven almost unhittable as opponents batted just .172 against him this year in Ft. Myers. Trevor May, 24 This name is a bit of a wild card in that May has worked as a starter for nearly his entire career, and the Twins are surely hoping he can continue to develop in that capacity, but many believe his long-term future is as a reliever. May certainly has MLB-caliber stuff but his command and stamina have been lacking and he didn't do enough this year in his second turn at Double-A to alleviate any such concerns. In 27 starts with New Britain, he averaged just 5 2/3 innings per start. From a 24-year-old repeating Double-A, you would certainly like to see more consistently deep outings. As a reliever, May could maximize his strengths while better hiding his weaknesses. But of course, with their dire shortage of starters in the high minors, the Twins will likely show patience with him in his current role for the time being.

Although he hasn't had a great series, Torii Hunter's Detroit Tigers are headed to a decisive Game 5 against the Oakland Athletics after a huge win on Tuesday night. This is Hunter's seventh trip to the postseason -- a pretty impressive accomplishment when you think about it. You don't see too many players reaching the playoffs seven times in their career, let alone as part of three different clubs. Part of it is that Hunter has been fortunate enough to play almost exclusively on good teams, but certainly another part of it is that he has legitimately helped those teams get it done. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hunter has been a great player, one whose contributions in Minnesota I may have under-appreciated to some degree in retrospect. While I've always admired Hunter's game, I haven't always loved him. He's notoriously opinionated and occasionally has things to say that I just don't care for. Then again, you can't fault a guy for speaking his mind, and based on the way he's viewed by teammates and media, it seems safe to say that overall he's an amiable guy and a clubhouse asset. Fans are drawn to his effervescent nature on the field, not to mention his constantly high levels of energy and effort. Is he a Hall of Famer? I would say no. He has never truly been one of the greatest players in the league and to me that's a prerequisite. But Hunter has a better case than you might suspect. He has hit 314 home runs while spending most of his career as an elite defensive center fielder (nine Gold Gloves). And boy, has he been consistent. From 2001 through 2011, he hit 20-plus homers every year (with the exception of 2005, when he missed almost half the season due to a broken ankle), and while his power has waned somewhat in his late 30s, he has still posted an .800+ OPS in each of the past two campaigns. When you look back at those scrappy Twins teams that largely reigned over the AL Central from 2002 through his departure in 2007, it's difficult not to see Hunter as the steady beating heart. Other players came and went, had their ups and downs, but Hunter was good every year, providing middle-of-the-lineup offense along with legendary defense at a crucially important position. There's no question that, these days, the Twins are missing many of the things Hunter brought to the table. That leads to another thought: Could a return to Minnesota ever be in the cards for the veteran outfielder? Hunter has one more season remaining on his two-year, $26 million contract with the Tigers. He'll be a free agent again next year, at age 39, when the Twins may be looking to add some extra pieces to a roster that will (hopefully) be shaping up as a contender driven by young stars. Acquiring players who are verging on 40 can be dangerous, but the Twins had great success in a similar situation with Jim Thome and it appears that Hunter has taken phenomenal care of his body because he's showing few signs of age. Might the Twins consider bringing him back for one last go? Should they? It's a fun talking point as the Hunter gears up for one of the biggest games of his life.

I'll say this much for Masahiro Tanaka: his timing is good. The Japenese star just put together the best statistical season for a pitcher in NPB history, and will be coming to the States just as Major League Baseball is receiving a massive influx of revenue from new media deals. Tanaka has been on an incredible run. After starring for Japan in the World Baseball Classic in the spring, he went 22-0 with a 1.23 ERA for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. At season's end, he came on as closer to protect a one-run lead in his team's pennant-clinching victory. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He's a star on the level of Yu Darvish, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideo Nomo. He's only 24 years old. He has filed for international free agency. And there are plenty of major-league teams ready to spend big on pitching. The Twins are one of them. There are several reasons to believe the Twins will be active players for Tanaka this winter. Jim Pohlad has repeatedly insisted that he is more than open to aggressive financial measures in order to improve the club, while Terry Ryan has been typically wary of the free agent route. Ryan's main concern -- one that has been echoed by Pohlad -- is that there's great peril in handing high-dollar multi-year contracts to aging pitchers, who are notoriously susceptible to injury and decline. But of course, Tanaka is just entering his physical prime. He is only 15 months older than Alex Meyer, the organization's top pitching prospect. And his success in the Nippon Pro Baseball league has been otherworldly. In seven seasons, he is 95-35 with a 2.32 ERA, 52 complete games and 18 shutouts. He is renowned for his outstanding command, and his featured split-finger fastball is considered by scouts to be a plus major-league pitch. Of course, dominant numbers in Japan don't always portend effectiveness in the majors. The Twins have seen that on some level with Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but the more relevant cases would be players like Matsuzaka, Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa. There's plenty of risk involved, especially when you consider that Tanaka could well command an investment that rivals (or even exceeds) the $112 million shelled out by Texas for Darvish two years ago. The Rangers' contract with Darvish is for six years and $60 million -- hardly outrageous by MLB standards -- but Texas also needed to win bidding rights with a $52 million posting fee for the hurler's Japanese team, the Nippon Ham Fighters. Undoubtedly, the Golden Eagles are licking their chops anticipating the bids that might come in for Tanaka given his age and status. Several large-market major-league teams appear poised to spend heavily on starting pitching this offseason, most notably the New York Yankees. As the posting system for Japanese players involves blind bids, Ryan and the Twins would need to send out a very, very significant offer in order to have a legitimate chance of landing the pinnacle of the international market. Could they be gun-shy about playing this game? That would be understandable, since they were burned on the Nishioka deal. Then again, they must feel some sense of remorse for missing out on Hisashi Iwakuma, for whom they finished runner up in the post bidding back in 2010. The Twins clearly had interest in Iwakuma but didn't do what it took to bring him in, and they've since watched him go 23-11 with a 2.84 ERA in two seasons with Seattle. The cost to claim Tanaka will be in another realm entirely from Nishioka (winning bid: $5 million) or Iwakuma ($19 million). I suspect he may break the current record held by Darvish at $51.7 million. That's an awful lot of money to pay simply to negotiate with a player, at which point the Twins would have to make another massive financial commitment. Perhaps too spicy a pepper to swallow. There's not much in the history of the franchise or the commanding GM to suggest that such a splashy play would be on the table. But with the Twins admitting they have surplus money to spend, and with Tanaka fitting so well into their emerging timeline, I wouldn't be surprised if the club made a bid they feel is quite aggressive in order to take a shot at the intriguing righty. Whether or not that's aggressive enough isn't in their hands. It could very well turn out that the Twins' ability to gamble on Tanaka is dictated more by the level of interest from other (far richer) teams than their own.

When it came down to it, the folks running the Twins couldn't find it in themselves to make Ron Gardenhire a scapegoat by sending him packing after another 96-loss season that wasn't influenced much by the field manager. Sure, you can argue that Gardenhire isn't a great skipper, and you can argue that the team would benefit from a fresh voice, but at the end of the day there wasn't much Gardy could have done to get significantly better results out of the substandard roster supplied to him this season. Personally, although I wouldn't have been appalled to see the club go a different direction, I had no particular desire to see Gardenhire leave. Similarly, you won't see me advocating for the dismissal of Terry Ryan.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For the most part, I tend to think that calls for coaches and execs to get fired are reactionary and uninformed, failing to account for the many circumstances that play into any outcome. When a player's return from injury takes too long or recovery timetables are repeatedly extended, we see people calling for firings in the medical staff, ignoring the reality that medicine is an inexact science and quite often players are more responsible than trainers for setbacks. When the offense struggles and the hitters strike out at an unprecedented rate, we see people calling for the firing of the new hitting coach, ignoring the presence of inexperienced young players taking their (not unexpected) lumps. If the team fails to acquire legitimate free agents that can help, we see people calling for the firing of the general manager, ignoring the possibilities that maybe ownership vetoed certain spending initiatives or maybe the guys Ryan wanted simply wouldn't sign here. Crying out for people to lose their jobs is easy, but it's not necessarily rational. I myself have no desire for anyone to get the axe unless it becomes blatantly clear that they're not up to the task, and I haven't reached that point with Gardenhire, nor his coaches, nor Ryan. However, there's no avoiding the fact that the Twins have descended into a horrible, horrible state and people need to step up and take responsibility. I don't care to see people fired, but I do need them to show accountability and convince me that they recognize what's gone wrong -- that they're ready to do what it takes to right the ship, even if that means moving outside of comfort zones. We haven't seen that, and to me that's far more disheartening than the fact that Gardenhire and his staff were extended in the wake of another losing season. During a conference call with season ticket holders earlier this week, Ryan was asked about a recent column from Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN, in which the radio host and scribe suggested that the Twins need to infuse some innovation into their outdated set of philosophies. It's a good article that makes some extremely valid -- and perhaps obvious -- points. As Mackey puts it: "The Twins aren't masters of anything right now. They don't do one thing better than the other 29 teams in baseball. They used to. But they don't anymore." When asked about the editorial, Ryan said he was aware of it and downplayed it by saying, "Sometimes I think he (Mackey) wants a job over here. That's OK." Come on Terry. You're better than that, and you owe the fans a better answer than that. A writer puts together a thoughtful piece suggesting that perhaps the Twins need to uncover new strategies and approaches, considering that what they've been doing clearly isn't working, and Ryan responds by essentially saying, "Nah, we're doing fine, thanks." That's the opposite of accountability. And we're seeing too many similar sentiments expressed lately. Ryan admirably is willing to take the blame for the current product, saying that it's his fault and not the manager's that the Twins continue to stumble in the wrong direction; what he's not doing is specifying just exactly what he's doing wrong or providing assurance that he's working to correct the misguided ideas that have plagued the organization. It starts with rhetoric. Nobody wants to hear the same quotes about how free agency isn't a viable method of improving your club. Nobody wants to hear about how a team with one of the worst offenses in the league is still opposed to the simple and proven concept of platooning hitters. Nobody wants to hear about how the mediocre performances of low-upside veterans Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey were among the team's biggest positive takeaways this year. Taking accountability doesn't necessarily mean changing personnel. It means looking inward, accepting that some things simply aren't working, and proving -- through both words and actions -- that you're flexible and receptive to changes in those ways. And if that can't happen, then maybe it is time for some changes in personnel.