Nick Nelson

The more I think about the swap that the Twins have made at the designated hitter position, the more I like it. By signing Jason Kubel to a non-guaranteed, incentive-laden contract and trading away Ryan Doumit's guaranteed $3.5 million salary, they have made a sound financial decision that could pay dividends on the field. But in doing so, they're also committing to a plan at the DH position that is shaky at best. Maybe that's not such a bad thing. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] While Kubel has never been able to replicate the offensive dominance he displayed in 2009, his career year, he has generally been a decent hitter since, with numbers that closely mirror Doumit's: Doumit (32), last four seasons: .264/.326/.429, 53 HR Kubel (31), last four seasons: .250/.322/.435, 68 HR Ostensibly Doumit gains an advantage because he is a switch-hitter and can serve as a backup catcher, but Kubel is younger and has shown the greater power potential. Besides, Doumit's ability to competently serve as a part-time catcher was in doubt even before this year's concussion issues further clouded matters. Both players are coming off down seasons at the plate, but Kubel's was unequivocally much worse. Therein lies the greatest concern. He batted .216/.293/.317 in stints with the Diamondbacks and Indians, and looked especially bad late in the year. His ability to make contact has rapidly deteriorated as he's aged: Year | K % ----------------------------- 2009 | 18% 2010 | 20% 2011 | 21% 2012 | 26% 2013 | 32% Kubel has proven to be a very good hitter at times, but he's an iffy gamble at this point, which is why the Twins have hedged their bets in his contract. He'll earn a guaranteed $2 million by joining the club out of spring training, and can add an additional $1 million through very reachable incentives. That means he stands to make $3 million -- virtually identical to Doumit's 2014 salary. This substitution wasn't about saving money. It was about mitigating risk and adding some intriguing upside to the DH mix. Clearly the Twins have given Kubel a strong indication he'll make the team -- he reportedly may have passed up a major-league deal to sign here -- but his contract is non-guaranteed for a reason. With his awful recent play and his ascending K-rates, it's difficult to have faith in a major turnaround. So what happens then? Well, even if Kubel is on the roster, he'll be sharing time at DH with a group of questionable fielders that could include Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello and others. If Kubel doesn't shake out, those guys would be in line for more starts at DH, potentially improving the defense by keeping them off the field. Of course, in that scenario, the Twins need to have backups who can not only provide a defensive upgrade but also hit enough to warrant semi-regular playing time. Unless they're sold on the likes of Darin Mastroianni, Alex Presley, Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana as players who can hold their own in somewhat prominent roles, the Twins should be scouring for backups and utility types who can offer some offensive value. But to even consider surrendering the money (and draft pick) that would be required to land a high-caliber bat like Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz would be silly. There's a sensible plan in place to start the season and if it doesn't work out players who can hit but have no defensive position are easy enough to find on the trade market or even the waiver wire.

The Twins have filled their backup catcher vacancy. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, they have reached agreement on a one-year deal with veteran catcher Kurt Suzuki. The signing addresses the last obvious need on the roster, although Terry Ryan will likely continue to monitor potential upgrades over the coming weeks. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Terms of the deal have yet to be disclosed, but Suzuki is not expected to earn a large salary. He has struggled at the plate over the past four seasons, hitting just .237/.294/.357 while spending time with the Athletics and Nationals. Suzuki might have a chance to compete for a starting job in spring training, but given his lack of offensive production in recent years, the Twins are probably hoping that Josmil Pinto will be able to establish himself, allowing the new acquisition to serve in a part-time role. Although he is generally considered a strong defender, Suzuki really struggled to control the run game this past season, catching just eight base-stealers on 65 attempts (12 percent) in 93 games. That's a concern, since defensive aptitude will be the most important thing for him to bring to the table. Suzuki, 30, is a Hawaii native who played college ball at Cal State Fullerton. He was a second-round draft choice of the A's in 2004. Expect more analysis of the signing here at Twins Daily over the weekend.

Last offseason, the Twins faced a decision with a player who had been part of their organization for nearly a decade. Scott Baker, coming off Tommy John surgery, was a free agent, and the Twins, direly in need of pitching help, were among the teams discussing a contract with him. Ultimately, they backed off and let him sign with the Cubs. According to reports, the biggest stumbling block was Baker's unwillingness to include an option for a second year. But of course, the Twins went on to sign Mike Pelfrey to a straight one-year deal at a similar price, so there must have been more to it than that. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] I felt at the time that one of the biggest factors in the club's preference for Pelfrey was a history of far greater arm durability, and one year later, the decision looks smart. In comparing Baker and Pelfrey last year, there were many situational similarities. Both were former high draft picks with MLB success in their histories, both were around 30 years old and both would be a little under a year removed from Tommy John at the outset of the 2013 season. Both ended up signing one-year contracts for around $5 million, with no added option years. So essentially, in committing a fairly significant chunk of guaranteed money to one of these pitchers, the choice came down to which one was going to bounce back and deliver production right away in 2013 to make good on that investment. The Twins ultimately passed up Baker and signed Pelfrey in late December. It seemed clear that Baker had the greater upside. He was the guy who could miss bats, and the one who had been truly exceptional in his best years. He also had familiarity within the organization. But through that familiarity, the Twins knew that his pitching arm hadn't always held up especially well. Even before learning in spring of 2012 that he had a torn ligament, Baker had a long history of pesky elbow issues. He had reached 200 innings only once in his career, in 2009, and hadn't eclipsed 172 innings in a season outside of that. A glance at Baker's injury history on Baseball Prospectus reveals a lengthy record of arm ailments dating back to 2009: Pelfrey, on the other hand, had a relatively clean bill of health prior to his May 2012 surgery. From 2008 through 2011, he made 31-plus starts every year and averaged 196 innings. In fact, prior to going down with the ligament tear, he never even made one trip to the disabled list. As a well built specimen at 6'7" and 250 lbs, Pelf had been the definition of durability. He only enhanced that reputation by returning last year, just 11 months from Tommy John surgery, and logging 152 innings over 29 starts. His overall results weren't very good, but the accomplishment alone is quite noteworthy. Based on my research, there has never been another starting pitcher to return from reconstructive elbow surgery in such a short span and complete a full season. Pelfrey even ratcheted his fastball back up to 93 MPH on average and posted the highest strikeout rate of his career. Meanwhile, Baker missed almost the entire season as he dealt with rehab complications. He didn't make his first appearance until September 8th and wound up pitching 15 innings over three starts. That's what the Cubs got for their $5.5 million. Say what you will about Pelfrey's performance -- at least he gave the Twins innings. That his arm was able to rebound so well is not wholly surprising considering his history, and bodes well for his new two-year deal. The Twins are chiefly interested in getting quality innings at the back end of the rotation from Pelfrey, and based on his past he seems like a strong bet to at least hold up well enough to deliver the innings. Whether those innings will be of the quality variety is unclear to say the least, but if you look closely you can find some positive signs to that end.

After adding Mike Pelfrey over the weekend, the Twins have now signed three free agent starters to join Kevin Correia in the rotation, adding around $25 million to the 2014 payroll in the process. At this point, one would figure that Terry Ryan is done investing in the rotation and is ready to turn his attention to the offense. And yet, the pitching rumors persist. Here's a quick glance at the latest offseason rumblings involving the local club: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * I felt that the chances of the Twins signing Bronson Arroyo went from slim to nil after Pelfrey was locked in, but Mike Berardino cites a source with direct knowledge as saying that the team still has "strong interest" in the veteran right-hander. With four starting spots essentially claimed and with Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley all remaining to compete for that final job, I am extremely skeptical that Ryan is serious about spending big on another multi-year contract. This could hamper the flexibility of a rotation that should be setting up to usher in some young homegrown talent over the next few years. I could see the Twins signing a guy like Arroyo if he was available at a price they viewed as a bargain. But Arroyo -- along with the rest of the remaining free agent crop -- isn't waiting around this long to sign for a discount, especially with a non-contender. Steam Rating: 2/5 * Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 reports the Twins are maintaining a dialogue with Johan Santana and that the former Cy Young winner is "very open to a return." Santana seems like a more sensible target than Arroyo. He won't require an expensive long-term deal (more like a minor-league pact with incentives) and I see no way he'd be a consideration to open the season in the rotation. Coming off his second major shoulder surgery since leaving Minnesota, Santana did not pitch at all in 2013 and -- last I heard -- hasn't even thrown off a mound yet. If he were to come aboard, it would likely be in the same capacity as Rich Harden last year. He'd spend the early part of the season rehabbing and building strength, and would hopefully be able to join up and make an impact at some point down the line. Even with the Twins' rotation becoming somewhat crowded, Santana would still stand a good chance of earning an opportunity here, and it's a place where he's comfortable. I could see it. Steam Rating: 3/5 * Prior to the Pelfrey signing, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick mentioned the Twins were monitoring free agent lefty Paul Maholm. Whether or not that interest remains is unclear, but Maholm is a logical target for the back end of the rotation. He'll be relatively inexpensive and has posted a solid 3.89 ERA while averaging 168 innings over the past three years. Most notably, Maholm is a left-hander, and the Twins currently have no southpaws slotted into the starting corps. Steam Rating: 2/5 * Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle named the Twins as one team with interest in catcher Kurt Suzuki. Suzuki is intriguing. He emerged as a fairly solid player early on in Oakland, but has really fallen off over the past few years, with a .237/.294/.357 hitting line since 2010. He's still only 30, he'll be cheap and he's got a good defensive reputation. Seems like a logical fit as a backup. I still think John Buck or another more well-traveled veteran is likelier, though. Steam Rating: 3/5 * On Tuesday, Jon Heyman tweeted that the Twins are among the teams looking at slugger Mark Reynolds. It's tough to make much sense of this one, because Reynolds is coming off an ugly season and really doesn't profile as a third baseman anymore, though that used to be his primary position. He's more of a 1B/DH type and the Twins already have an abundance of those with Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Jason Kubel and Chris Parmelee. More than anything, Reynolds seems redundant with Trevor Plouffe already on the team; the two share a decidedly similar skill set. Both are substandard corner infield defenders who strike out a lot, hit for low averages and mostly just offer pop from the right side. I'm still a believer in Plouffe, at least as a part-time asset, but if the Twins are actually making a push for Reynolds it's probably not a good sign for the third base incumbent. In combination with the Kubel signing, the Reynolds whispers indicate the Twins are looking for cheap power bats they can buy low. For all his flaws, Reynolds has cranked 202 homers in seven MLB seasons. Steam Rating: 2/5

On Saturday, the news we've been expecting for weeks finally arrived: the Twins have agreed to terms with Mike Pelfrey on a two-year contract. Ever since it was initially reported back in November that Minnesota had made a multi-year bid for the right-hander, there has been little question that a reunion was in store because, frankly, it seemed unlikely any other team would match. The move has been met with criticism from many fans and analysts[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], which is unsurprising considering that Pelfrey pitched quite poorly in his first year with the club. I expected to experience that same feeling of antipathy when the signing was inevitably announced. And yet... I am not. To be clear, I'm not a big fan of Pelfrey. Watching him pitch is a grind because he works slowly and uses tons of pitches. For the game-watching fan, he's kind of a drag. But that's secondary to the results he achieves. Those haven't been good either, of course, at least not since he put up a 3.66 ERA over 204 innings back in 2010. I didn't like the contract given to Pelfrey last year because I saw little upside in a one-year deal for a guy who wasn't great to begin with and was only 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery. The best-case scenario was that Pelf would get off to a rough start and come around during the latter part of the season boosting his own value going forward. That did happen, to some extent. The righty endured a miserable first two months, getting tagged for a 6.66 ERA and .907 OPS while completing six innings just twice in 11 starts. But he looked noticeably better from May through September, turning in a 4.44 ERA while allowing only seven homers in 101 innings. The overall numbers are far from dazzling, but that's why Pelfrey was available at such a low price. And at that price ($11 million plus incentives over two years), he stands a good chance of being a solid value for the back end of the rotation. Here are a couple key things to keep in mind: He revved his fastball back up to the mid-90s in 2013 despite being less than a year removed from elbow surgery, and on the season he posted a career-high 6.0 K/9 rate (including 6.7 in the final four months). Anyone who had become entangled in thoughts of a top-flight talent like Matt Garza is surely disappointed, but in my mind those reports were never realistic. The Twins weren't going to sign another pitcher to a four/five-year deal worth potentially upwards of $75 million after already committing that amount to a pair of hurlers in November. Those printed rumors struck me as a classic example of media being leveraged in negotiations -- either by the Twins (trying to motivate Pelfrey to sign) or by Garza's agent (trying to drum up the market). Once Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were on board, I sincerely doubt Terry Ryan was ever truly interested in adding Garza, or Masahiro Tanaka, or even Bronson Arroyo (who, at 36, simply doesn't fit as well with the organization's contention timeline as Pelfrey, who is still 29). Not at the prices they are going to eventually command. In all likelihood, the Twins are now done shopping for starting pitching. No one is going to look at their rotation -- which will include Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Kevin Correia and one returning arm -- and be blown away, but this group is a far more stable one than we've seen the past few years. The first four names are all experienced hurlers who made at least 29 starts in the majors last year. Leaving only one spot open puts the Twins in a position where they can pick the best of their internal candidates rather than counting on total question marks to fill multiple holes. I know it's hard to get excited about Pelfrey based on what we've seen. But it's important to view him for what he is: an inexpensive back-end piece whose contract won't constrict the Twins much in terms of years or money. And while last year's deal carried little upside, there's more to be found in this one. If Pelf can build on the things he did in the second half of 2013, he could turn out to be a pretty damn good value at around $7 million per year in his age 30 and 31 seasons.

Monday's Rumor Mill Round-Up included an update on Bronson Arroyo, who was set to meet with multiple teams -- including the Twins -- at this week's Winter Meetings. I judged the probability of a match being rather low, largely because I guessed the local club would cease to be aggressive bidders for a free agent of Arroyo's caliber after committing nearly $75 million Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, but Ken Rosenthal tweeted later in the day that the Twins were indeed making a push and that talks were "gaining momentum." [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] I'm still far from convinced that a deal will go down, but there's no denying the appearance of legitimate interest here. So what do the Twins see in Arroyo that would keep them involved even after adding two significant free agents to the mix? For precedence, I look to another veteran pitcher who was mentioned in Monday's round-up: Carl Pavano. It's no secret the Twins loved having Pavano around. After acquiring him from the Indians during the 2009 season, they kept him aboard in 2010 with a $7 million arbitration agreement and then re-signed him to a two-year, $16 million contract in the ensuing offseason. At the time, that was a massive free agent deal by their standards, and it pushed the 2011 payroll to a record $112 million. Pavano had earned the commitment with an outstanding 2010 campaign in which he went 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA over 221 innings, delivering seven complete games and two shutouts while helping lead a staff that dominated the AL Central. Clearly the Twins valued that effective durability very highly, and they probably value it even more in hindsight given what's transpired over the past couple years. Let's compare Pavano's 2010 to Arroyo's average output with the Reds over the past two seasons: Pavano, 2010: 221 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 Arroyo, 2012/13 (avg): 202 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 Those are very, very similar numbers. Much like Pavano, Arroyo is a veteran strike-thrower who has been reliable for 200-plus innings and has posted above-average core numbers. When the Twins re-signed Pavano in 2011, he was a 35-year-old with a fastball in the high 80s; Arroyo is presently a 36-year-old with a fastball in the high 80s. In a clear attempt to overhaul their shoddy rotation, the Twins have already added two established hurlers with a chance to make a real impact, but it appears they're still seeking a very veteran anchor for a group in which, even with Nolasco added, youth still rules the day. Arroyo is a risk for the many of the same reasons Pavano was a risk -- he's aging, his velocity is declining and he doesn't miss too many bats. But Arroyo also has a much more consistent history of durability and success. In many ways, he can be viewed as a rich man's Pavano, which might explain why the Twins are once again ready to step beyond their normal limits to pursue him.

As a handy one-stop shop for all Twins-related offseason rumors, we'll be running frequent "Rumor Mill Round-Up" columns here at Twins Daily, wherein we gather up all the recent rumblings involving the local club. With each rumor, we'll provide some analysis and a "Steam Rating," assigning a 1-5 score to the report based on the level of likelihood we'll actually see something materialize. With the annual Winter Meetings getting underway this week, here's a quick rundown of the players the Twins are being connected to: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * John Buck has "climbed to the top" of Minnesota's wish list at catcher, according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. With Jarrod Saltalamacchia and A.J. Pierzynski off the board, the Twins have apparently turned their attention to the veteran Buck as an option to ease the transition of young Josmil Pinto behind the plate. I viewed Buck as a likely target for Minnesota and listed him in my blueprint in the Offseason Handbook. I like that he'll be relatively cheap and can operate as a quality backup or a serviceable semi-regular starter in the event Pinto needs more time. Buck is far from a great hitter but he has averaged 119 games played and 16 homers over the past four seasons. The fact that Buck has worked extensively with Ricky Nolasco, a former teammate in Miami, probably enhances the probability of this match. I see the interest here being very real. Steam Rating: 5/5 * The Twins are one team that has expressed interest in Oakland's Brett Anderson, according to Susan Slusser, who does a fantastic job covering the Athletics for the San Francisco Chronicle. I wrote last week about the merits of pursuing Anderson, concluding that at the right price he'd be a great gamble for Terry Ryan. Whether A's GM Billy Beane is willing to deal the durability-challenged former top prospect for what we'd construe as the "right price" is unknown, but with his value depressed the Twins would be silly not to at least explore. Steam Rating: 3/5 * The Pirates are set to meet with Bronson Arroyo's agent, via ESPN's Buster Olney. The Twins were reported to be interested in Arroyo prior to the Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes signings, and there has been some buzz that their interest remains, although we haven't heard anything connecting the two sides in a while. I would guess that if the Twins are going to sign another starter, it will be more of a low-level signing, so Arroyo is probably not a realistic target unless his price really drops for some reason. Steam Rating: 2/5 UPDATE: ESPN 1500's Darren Wolfson says the Twins are meeting with Arroyo's agent on Monday afternoon, so there may be more to this possibility than we think. (h/t JimCrikket) * It sounds like former Twins starter Carl Pavano is interested in resuming his playing career but doesn't view the Twins as a likely destination, per Berardino. Pavano missed the entire 2013 season after rupturing his spleen in a freak shoveling incident. He told Berardino, "I'm going to give it a try. What else have I got?" Asked about the Twins specifically, he said he hasn't been in contact and added, "I think we're in different places. They need those younger guys in their rotation." Truth. Steam Rating: 1/5

Terry Ryan is acutely aware of how difficult it is to acquire front-end starting pitching. After trading Denard Span for Alex Meyer a year ago, he explained the logic behind giving up an established major-league regular for a player who hadn't yet played above Single-A, noting that with potential No. 1 starters, "Sometimes you've got to get them when they're in the early stages of their pro career or you aren't going to get them, period." He's right. Once a high-end pitching prospect reaches Triple-A or successfully transitions to the majors, he becomes exceedingly tough to pry away from his organization, because there's basically nothing more valuable in baseball than an inexpensive starter that you can slot near the top of your rotation. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins acquired an exceptional talent in Meyer, and paid a substantial price to do so, but also took on significant risk because the right-hander had made only 25 professional starts and was still multiple levels away from the majors. As Ryan noted, that's just the way you have to play the game unless you're looking to spend exorbitant amounts in free agency (as the Ddogers did last year with Zack Greinke) or give away a massive prospect haul (as the Royals did with James Shields). The only other ways to bring in a potential ace from the outside are to get creative or get lucky. The Twins have certainly accomplished the latter in the past (see: Johan Santana in the Rule 5 draft) but you can't count on that. I like creative solutions, which is why I'm very intrigued by Oakland's Brett Anderson. A former second-round draft pick, Anderson rose rapidly through the minor-league ranks, peaking as Baseball America's No. 7 prospect before he debuted in the majors at age 21 in 2009. In his first two seasons with the A's, the left-hander posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 225/67 K/BB ratio over 287 innings. Those are superb numbers, particularly when you consider his age and experience at the time. Unfortunately, Anderson was limited to 19 starts in 2010 by a forearm strain, setting off a depressing string of injuries that sent his promising career into a spiral. As is all too often the case, the forearm issue proved a precursor to Tommy John, which the southpaw underwent midway through the 2011 campaign. He spent most of 2012 recovering from the surgery, returning late in the year with strong results, though an oblique strain ended his season a bit prematurely. In 2013, Anderson appeared poised to make his triumphant return to the scene, but after six appearances he went down with an ankle injury that later turned out to be a stress fracture in his foot, costing him nearly his entire season. He returned in the final month and pitched exclusively out of the bullpen the rest of the way. With only 163 innings combined over the last three years, Anderson is an enormous durability risk. It's hard to know where he's at right now because there's just not much to go on in the way of recent performance. He's also owed $8 million next year with a $12 million option for 2015. Given that they made the playoffs without him this season (and just signed Scott Kazmir to a two-year contract), the A's may feel motivated to move Anderson and his salary commitment. So it's no surprise that they are rumored to be floating him. It goes without saying that Anderson is far from a sure thing at this point. But there are a few key points to keep in mind when assessing his situation. 1) He has already undergone Tommy John surgery, so his elbow should theoretically be good to go. 2) The ailments that have bothered him since that surgery -- an oblique strain and a foot fracture -- are non-arm injuries that don't figure to be long-term concerns. 3) He's still only 25. That last point is a big one. Anderson is a former top prospect who was at one point viewed as one of the finest young hurlers in the game, and he's still in his mid-20s. His circumstances have diminished his potential market, and while Billy Beane isn't exactly the type to give anything away, this is a situation where you could gamble on a special talent without selling the farm. Make no mistake... it definitely is a gamble. But with their deep farm system, their growing stable of backup-option starters and their dire need for upper-echelon pitching talent, it's one that the Twins are positioned as well as anyone to take. They are rumored to be one of the teams that has inquired about the southpaw, so we'll see if anything progresses next week when Ryan and Beane are both in Orlando for the Winter Meetings.

In their first turn through the rotation this past season, the Twins sent out Vance Worley, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Liam Hendriks and Pedro Hernandez. Opening the year with multiple backup plans already plugged into the starting five set the stage for a tumultuous campaign that exposed the organization's miserable starting pitching depth at the high levels. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Overly lengthy auditions for guys like Worley, Hernandez and Scott Diamond, along with painful redux performances from non-MLB talents like P.J. Walters and Cole De Vries, were all contributors in a season that saw Twins starters finish at the bottom of the majors in ERA, xFIP, WHIP and basically any other important category you could imagine. With two signings in the books already, and with at least one more expected to come, the Twins are now actually building something resembling depth in their starting corps, so that if someone gets hurt or struggles they might actually have multiple palatable options waiting on deck to step in, rather than uninspiring emergency plugs. It's been quite a while since that has been the case. With Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes already added to the mix to join Kevin Correia, and with many seeming to believe that one more veteran pitcher -- possibly Mike Pelfrey -- will still be enlisted, there may be only one opening available in the 2014 season-opening rotation. Terry Ryan has hinted that Samuel Deduno earned himself another chance, if healthy, with his strong performance in 2013. That would round out the rotation, meaning that a group including Worley, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Albers, Hendriks and Alex Meyer could be left on the outside looking in. That's undeniably an intriguing group. Not all are certain to remain within the organization if they don't latch onto the 25-man roster (some, like Worley and Diamond, will be out of options), but having a handful of pitchers with some history of MLB success -- or with legit prospect luster -- available in Triple-A would put the Twins in a very different position than they have been over the past three years. Worley was the Opening Day starter in 2013. Diamond was the team's best starter in 2012. Albers impressed during his debut, Meyer is the organization's top pitching prospect and Gibson offers sizable potential despite a rocky start. Any one of those guys has the potential to bounce back or emerge as a legitimate quality option, giving the Twins a much comfier margin for error with the guys currently slotted to comprise the rotation. Everyone wants to talk about the importance of adding an ace at the top, and that would certainly be nice, but having decent arms available to plug in at the back end if someone gets hurt or isn't performing can be almost just as important over the course of a 162-game season.

Answering the same question over and over again had to be growing tiresome for Twins officials. Because baseball fans in general are becoming increasingly analytical in the way they watch the game (this site serves as a great example), and because the organization has earned a reputation for taking a more traditional, scouting-based approach, seemingly every interview with an exec or front office member has included some query on the Twins' progress in the area of statistical analysis. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This placed Terry Ryan, or Rob Antony, or Jack Goin, or whoever, in the tough position of needing to reveal enough about their internal process to satisfy skeptics while withholding enough so as not to give away any kind of competitive advantage. The refrain has always been the same: We do have a statistics department, they do have influence and we are not as behind the times as everyone seems to think. Yet, while that all sounds nice, it's been hard to buy into because the actions simply have not matched the words. With a pitching staff that was already drastically out of line with the league-wide proliferation of high-strikeout arms, the Twins last year signed two more contact-heavy hurlers whose peripheral numbers suggested little upside. This year has been a much different story. Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes aren't superstars, but they are certainly the type of pitchers that a club leaning on deeper statistics might be expected to target. Nolasco's career 4.37 ERA isn't too impressive, but for many years he has been a darling of the sabermetric community because of his consistently strong fielding independent marks. In all but one of the past six seasons, his xFIP has been lower than 3.70, thanks in large part to his outstanding K/BB ratios. The superior secondary numbers haven't frequently translated into top-tier performance, but if you're going to take a chance and make a large investment in a guy, he's a sound choice based on the underlying indicators. The same can be said for Hughes. He's got his obvious warts -- he's exceeded 150 innings in a season only once, he has been extremely homer-prone and he's coming off a 5.19 ERA -- but there's plenty to like about this signing. As a fly ball pitcher, Hughes was miscast in Yankee Stadium, where pop-ups seem to sometimes find the seats. This was reflected by a 1-10 record and 6.32 ERA in the home yard this past season. Pitching in spacious Target Field should alleviate some of the righty's gopher ball issues while hopefully allowing his strengths to manifest. A former first-round draft pick and top prospect, Hughes throws in the mid-90s and is capable of missing bats, albeit not at a spectacular rate. Much like Nolasco, his secondary numbers are the most appealing thing about him. These signings weren't about simply getting guys who can go out and throw 180 innings, as we've seen too often in the past. These were about bringing in established arms with real, meaningful upside. That's precisely what needs to be done at this point. I've been as disenchanted with the front office as anyone over the past couple years, but this past week has really restored a lot of my faith. I like the aggressiveness, I like the approach, I like the decisions. Are these moves guaranteed to work out? Of course not. But if they don't, the Twins can say they tried and based their investments on good science. And they've still got lots of offseason left to continue demonstrating their seriousness. If Ryan is walking with a bit of a strut when he shows up at the Winter Meetings in Orlando next week, he'll have earned the right.

Looking over the front page of the Star Tribune's sports section on Thanksgiving morning, I couldn't help but notice the irony. The top story: Pat Reusse's annual "Turkey of the Year" column, in which the longtime scribe called out Terry Ryan as the top goat in Minnesota sports for the past year. Just below, also above the fold, was the headline, "Pitcher Nolasco headed to Twins," with a subhead indicating that the pitcher had been signed to a record $49 million deal. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Reusse's selection was certainly justified when you look at the last year as a whole. Following a disastrous 2012 season in which the starting rotation was a complete mess, Ryan signed only low-end free agents and wound up with a team that showed no improvement. By continuing to rely on the same low-strikeout hurlers while the league has trended more and more toward power arms that can miss bats, Ryan has indeed looked at times like the game has passed him by. Or, as Reusse puts it, a "dinosaur." The signing of Nolasco is anything but business as usual for Ryan and the Twins. Not only does the total amount shatter the previous franchise benchmark for an external free agent (Josh Willingham's $21 million contract), but the timing of the move is also telling. Aside from Jason Vargas, who inked a weird four-year, $32 million deal with the Royals, Nolasco is the first free agent pitcher to sign a long-term contract (three or more years) this offseason. Rather than waiting for the market to develop, as they've pretty much almost done, the Twins went hard after their top target and made him an offer that convinced him he wasn't going to get more money by waiting around. Talk about uncharacteristically splashy. To be clear, Nolasco is not an elite pitcher. He's not going to single-handedly turn the team around and he's not likely to be the best member of a good staff. There will be plentiful analysis of his strengths and weaknesses here at Twins Daily in the coming weeks. But the bottom line, for now, is this: Outside of Matt Garza, Nolasco was arguably the best pitcher available on the market among those who won't require a draft pick or colossal posting fee to sign. Given the club's reluctance to delve into those areas, Nolasco may have been the best realistic option for the Twins. And Ryan got him signed before Thanksgiving. There's more work do be done, but for now, with a large segment of the fan base voicing the same dejection toward the front office as Reusse, this is a loud statement that could have hardly come at a better time.

Despite the acknowledgement of Twins officials that the club has plenty of financial flexibility this offseason, many fans have understandably been reluctant to believe that truly aggressive measures are in the offing. A lack of early activity has only served to magnify that skepticism, but as we've often noted, this isn't at all unusual in the weeks prior to the Winter Meetings, especially in a shifting marketplace. While we haven't seen any bold moves yet, there have been plenty of signs that the Twins are quite serious about taking uncharacteristically splashy steps in order to improve the club. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Through the rumor mill, we have seen the team connected to numerous starting pitchers that rank noticeably higher than the usual low-end targets. In a column for 1500 ESPN this week, Darren Wolfson suggested that based on what he's hearing, Ricky Nolasco is currently atop Terry Ryan's wish list, with Bronson Arroyo right behind him. Neither Nolasco nor Arroyo could be considered one of the true top-tier free agents in this class, but they're both legitimate proven pitchers and they're both coming off very good seasons. Last year the Twins landed Kevin Correia, who was coming off a season in which he got booted from the Pirates rotation, and Mike Pelfrey, who was coming off Tommy John surgery. Needless to say, landing a pitcher or two whose stock is actually up would represent a stark change, and would leave much less room for criticism. That the Twins are seemingly far more interested in wading into the deeper end of the free agent pitcher pool than they have been in the past isn't really surprising considering their continually horrendous results on the mound, but the rumors that continue to linger on the catching front are a bit more noteworthy. The Twins have historically been far more apt to utilize free agency to acquire stopgaps and short-term plugs than impact players and long-term solutions, and in the case of the catcher position, that would really be perfectly understandable this time around. Joe Mauer's position swap does open up a hole at the position, but Josmil Pinto provides a not-too-distant potential internal replacement and Ryan Doumit is still presently in the mix. Nevertheless, the whispers concerning Minnesota's interest in Jarrod Saltalamacchia -- who stands out as the top remaining catcher on the market after Brian McCann signed with the Yankees -- just won't die. Coming off a season in which he posted a career-high .804 OPS at age 28, Salty has the looks of a difference-maker, not a placeholder. The Twins have also been linked to Dioner Navarro, who won't be quite as pricey but is similarly coming off a career year and under the age of 30. There are plenty of serviceable veterans available in free agency, and I fully expected Ryan to focus on acquiring one such player as a temporary fix behind the plate while keeping his attention largely trained on pitching, but the idea that he's actually motivated to bring in a catcher who can upgrade the lineup is both surprising and encouraging. Of course, in the past we have often seen the Twins rumored to have interest in high-profile players early in the free agency period, only to scoff at high price tags and end up with uninspiring acquisitions. Heck, we saw it last year. This has a different feel, though. Never before have the available funds been this copious, and never before has the owner been so vocal in his desire to see money spent on making meaningful improvements. In a recent interview with Adam Platt of Twin Cities Business Magazine, Jim Pohlad made the following comments, which echo some other things we've heard from him over the past few months: Empty rhetoric? Perhaps. It wouldn't be the first time. But there are numerous signals indicating that this organization is feeling a far greater sense of urgency than is typical, and that provides some real reason for hope. Around this time of year, that's something for which to be thankful.

The early weeks of the offseason have not been particularly eventful for the Twins. We've seen them connected to a few different pitchers and catchers in free agency, but like many other teams, they have been slow to act here in November. That's not unexpected; with the market going through a significant shift, both agents and team execs are still feeling things out. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Once a few major contracts are signed, we will likely begin to see the dominoes fall at a fairly rapid pace. I just wouldn't anticipate the Twins being one of the teams to set the standard. We did see a few notable developments take place within the system on Tuesday, however. *** The first was a report coming from Puerto Rico that prospect Eddie Rosario has tested positive for a banned substance and could face a 50-game suspension. Apparently the positive test resulted from some pills the second baseman was taking to treat an arm injury. If true, this is obviously horrible news. Rosario is one of the organization's brightest prospects (he ranked No. 7 on Twins Daily's list in the spring) and being forced to sit out 50 games is extremely rough for a young kid who was rising quickly through the system and still adapting to a new position. The bright side is that Brian Dozier has firmly established himself at second base and was going to be locked in for at least the first half of the 2014 season regardless, so there was never any rush to get Rosario to the majors. If anything, this gives the club more time to see what they have in Dozier while Rosario serves his suspension and acclimates in the latter part of the season. What makes this hurt is that, from my perspective, Rosario was the best trade chip in the organization -- a standout talent at a valuable position coming off a fantastic minor-league season in which he advanced to the high levels. I'm not fully sold on Dozier but I believe in him enough to think that moving his potential successor in the right deal would be worth the risk. I'm also personally a bit lower than some on Rosario as a prospect, because although his production has been undeniably impressive I don't see his all-around skill set making him a real safe bet to succeed in the majors. He struck me as a sell-high guy who might have been flipped for maximum value this offseason, or else moved around the deadline next year if he managed to do some damage in Triple-A. Now that's all out the window, assuming the report is true. *** Later in the day, the Twins announced that they had traded Duke Welker, the reliever received alongside outfielder Alex Presley from the Pirates in exchange for Justin Morneau, back to Pittsburgh. The return is 29-year-old lefty starter Kris Johnson, who performed well at Triple-A in 2013 but has had a decidedly unexceptional career, spent almost entirely in the minors. Terry Ryan stated that the impetus for the move was a desire to swap a potential reliever for a potential starter, which makes sense for depth reasons, but Johnson seems like an even greater long shot than Welker to make an impact in the majors. Perhaps the Twins were emboldened by the Andrew Albers surprise, since Johnson is similarly a late-20s journeyman who found his way back into affiliated baseball after spending time in an independent league a couple years ago, but it's tough to find much to like here. He looks like Triple-A filler. Not that there's anything wrong with that. But fans are already getting antsy to see some meaningful activity on the starting pitching front. And for now, they're still waiting.