-
Posts
8,217 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
56
Content Type
Profiles
News
Minnesota Twins Videos
2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking
2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
The Minnesota Twins Players Project
2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Nick Nelson
-
Without exception, each spot on a team's 25-man roster is important. In any given week, it is likely that every last one of those players will see action in a game. On a contending team, all 25 openings should ideally be filled by guys who can play a meaningful and valuable role. Those roster spots can also be used to protect assets. A rebuilding team might choose to put a Rule 5 pick in the last bullpen slot, or stash a project who's out of options at the end of the bench. What is puzzling is seeing a future-focused team such as the Twins using its 25-man roster spots in a way that could only be described as haphazard. In their ongoing mission to reassemble veterans who took part in their last successful run, the Twins have repeatedly cast aside young players with potential long-term value in order to roster aging players in decline. First, there was Jason Kubel, who essentially beat out Chris Parmelee despite a poor 2013 and a mostly unimpressive spring. In fairness, that move didn't work out too badly, as Parmelee slipped through waivers. Kubel made good on the decision with a fast start, but he has fallen apart at the plate (28 strikeouts in his last 63 plate appearances) while Parmelee is raking in Triple-A. It's not clear that the correct decision was made here, but it was understandable and nothing was hurt at the end of the day. Giving a roster spot to 34-year-old Jason Bartlett, under the pretense that he'd be an asset as a play-anywhere utilityman despite having no history of doing so (not to mention being a year removed from playing), was much harder to figure. That blunder did hurt. Bartlett looked terrible, got hurt and retired. In order to stage this fiasco, the Twins waived and lost Alex Presley, who -- while no great shakes -- happened to play at a position where Minnesota has turned out to be dreadfully thin. And so we all stared apprehensively at Matt Guerrier's opt-out date on the calendar. To be clear, I have nothing against Guerrier. I liked him when he was here, and he can probably be a perfectly decent middle reliever. But that's no given, considering he's 35, and is coming off a bad year, and wasn't particularly impressive during his warm-up stint in the minors. On Thursday, the Twins called up Guerrier to avoid having him opt out of his contract. To make room for him, they didn't need to waive anyone from the 25-man roster, but they did send down Logan Darnell after a strong debut, and they had to outright pitching prospect Brooks Raley, who was snatched up by the Angels. I'll be honest: I don't know much about Raley. I've maybe seen him pitch twice. I know he's a big, hard-throwing lefty with some control problems and mixed results in the minors. But I also know that he's a full decade younger than Guerrier, and that the Twins liked him enough to claim him just a few months ago. The signings of Kubel, Bartlett and Guerrier seemed fine during the offseason because there is no inherent risk in non-guaranteed minor-league deals. But when the Twins are exposing and losing young, cheap players left and right in order to give these guys chances, all the appeal is lost. If you're going to fill these spots with veterans, why screw around with reclamation projects? Why not spend the money to sign established quality players? This is what's frustrating about the Twins. In many respects, they still operate like a penny-pinching, cash-deficient franchise trying to uncover hidden values that have been overlooked by the rest of the league. Too often they've whiffed on these projects, and the upside -- now and going forward -- with a player like Guerrier isn't great enough to be dedicating playing time and a roster spot to him over younger players with real long-term upside. I have a hard time wrapping my head around what the vision is here.
-
He's at it again. Chris Parmelee's 2012 season could be looked at in two different ways. On the one hand, you had a rookie hitter who looked overwhelmed against major-league pitching. On the other hand, you had a 24-year-old absolutely demolishing in his first exposure to Triple-A pitching. He was far and away the best hitter in the International League that year. He followed up with a 2013 season that was simply a mess, both in the majors and the minors, and as a result he was outrighted from the 40-man roster this spring. He passed through waivers (somewhat surprisingly, from my view) and now he's back in Rochester. Once again he is looking fantastic at the plate. In 29 games for the Red Wings, Parmelee is hitting .327/.398/.589 with seven homers, seven doubles, 23 RBI and a solid 20/13 K/BB ratio. On Sunday he went 3-for-5 with two bombs and five RBI. He has a .939 lifetime OPS at the Triple-A level. He has mastered it. The problem is that he hasn't proven to be a good enough hitter in the majors. Since an impressive September call-up in 2011, Parmelee has hit .228/.302/.364 in 186 games with the Twins, and that's pretty terrible production for a guy who offers almost no defensive value. Because of the disparity between his numbers in Triple-A and the majors, many have branded Parmelee as a "AAAA player" -- a tweener who's too good for the minors but not quite good enough for the show. Maybe that's what he is, but it seems too soon to affix that label. Keep in mind: Parmelee is still only 26 years old. That's one year younger than Trevor Plouffe, who finally seems to be turning the corner now. And although he's been given several different opportunities with the Twins, Parmelee's MLB experience amounts to 631 plate appearances, which is barely more than one full season's worth. There's a saying that you don't know what you have in a player until he's reached the 1,000-AB threshold in the majors. Parmelee isn't close to that yet, and I'd say some extra patience is warranted in his case considering his age, his status as a former first-round pick and his domination at the highest level of the minors. It's too soon to give up on him being a useful piece. The problem, of course, is that there's no room for him on the major-league roster. The Twins already have Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Chris Colabello and Pinto occupying the DH/corner outfielder mix, with Oswaldo Arcia set to return shortly and Josh Willingham not far behind. If Mauer's back injury forces him to the disabled list, it's possible the Twins could bring Parmelee back into the fold. He probably wouldn't be in line for regular playing time, at least not right away, but he could be plugged in against some righties with the opportunity to earn a regular gig. That would be a very beneficial development for the Twins. At the end of the day, regardless of your feelings about Parmelee, he still probably has a better chance to be a long-term asset for this club than Colabello or Kubel. At a time when every decision ought to be made with the future in mind, at least to some extent, that needs to be a primary consideration. What do you think? What should the Twins do with Parmelee?
-
As April has shifted into May, the Minnesota offense has cooled off a bit but continues to get the job done. On Friday they were shut out for just the second time all year, but they bounced back to score 11 runs in a pair of wins on Saturday and Sunday. The series victory over the weekend brought the Twins back within a game of .500. The offense seems sustainably effective, with Joe Mauer starting to heat up, Oswaldo Arcia preparing to return and several other lineup fixtures continuing to look good. So the club's ability to stay around the .500 mark will probably hinge on the rotation's ability to deliver quality starts, as it did in all three games against the Orioles. There's much change afoot in the starting corps, so let's examine the state of the unit as we head into the second month. * Following another poor start on Thursday, the Twins finally made a move with Mike Pelfrey, placing the righty on the disabled list with a groin injury. Pelfrey said the ailment had nothing to do with his performance, and keeps insisting that there's nothing wrong with his arm, but I'm not buying that he's physically right. He has tallied more walks than strikeouts in four straight starts, and according to Mike Berardino, Pelfrey touched 91 on the radar only six times in his entire start Thursday; this is a guy who averaged more than 92 miles per hour on his heater last year, and is ostensibly supposed to be getting stronger as he moves away from Tommy John. I liked what I saw from Pelfrey in the second half last year, and held the somewhat unpopular opinion that his two-year deal signed during the offseason could turn out to be a decent value, but this year he has been a complete mess and not himself. Hopefully this time away helps him get straightened out so he can return and be an asset, whether in the rotation or bullpen. * Replacing Pelfrey in the starting five is a guy who probably should have been there all along: Samuel Deduno. He was the team's best starter last season and followed up with a brilliant spring, showing no ill effects from offseason shoulder surgery. But Deduno was on the outside looking in during the first five weeks, working in a mop-up relief role where his outstanding work (2.89 ERA with 18 K in 18 2/3 innings) was underutilized. Now that he's back where he belongs, let's see if Deduno can replicate or even improve on his success from a year ago. As you may recall, he joined the Twins rotation in late May of 2013 and put up a 3.17 ERA in his first 13 starts, completing six or more innings in all but two. His play took a turn for the worse in mid-to-late September, but it seems fair to assume the shoulder troubles may have contributed to that. Now Deduno is healthy and coming in with a head full of steam. Should be entertaining to watch. * Deduno is a fun story because he never really emerged as a top prospect and didn't get an extended look in the majors until he was 28, but has proven to be a late bloomer with unforeseen upside. Another guy currently playing in Triple-A is attempting to craft a similar story. After tossing a complete game shutout on Saturday, Yohan Pino is now 5-0 with a 0.84 ERA for the Rochester Red Wings. In 32 innings across seven appearances (three starts), Pino has a 31-to-7 K/BB ratio and has allowed only 15 hits. That's domination. A skinny right-hander, Pino was originally signed by the Twins out of Venezuela and was a solid performer in the system before being traded to Cleveland for Carl Pavano in '09. Pino has since bounced around among a few different organizations. He had a great showing last year while playing in Triple-A for the Reds, so the Twins brought him back during the offseason. He's not currently on the 40-man roster, but if he keeps pitching lights-out in Rochester the 30-year-old is bound to get a chance at making his major-league debut sometime this summer. He doesn't have a high ceiling but with his excellent control and decent stuff, he could make a positive impact. * While Pino is intriguing enough, Alex Meyer and Trevor May are clearly the starters in Triple-A with the best chance to be difference-makers for the Twins rotation. Both pitched over the weekend. May has been inconsistent for the Red Wings, but has looked terrific at times, including his latest start in which he struck out 11 over six innings while allowing only one walk and three hits. Meyer pitched Sunday and came back to Earth after back-to-back spectacular outings, failing to complete five innings. Both need to demonstrate more start-to-start consistency before they'll be in the mix for a call-up to the majors, and the Twins will probably take it extra slow with Meyer for various reasons (he's not on the 40-man, he's coming off an injury-shortened season, Super 2 arbitration status is a consideration), but each is pitching his way toward getting a chance sometime this season. That will keep the pressure on Kevin Correia to keep pitching like he did on Saturday -- as it should be. * Among the three free agent starters that the Twins signed this offseason, the one I was most optimistic about was Phil Hughes. His age, combined with the fact that he'd spent his entire career in a tough pitching environment, made it plausible that we hadn't yet seen him at his best. Everyone was buzzing about Hughes when I was down in spring training and it wasn't hard to see why. His pitches were hard and sharp and one sensed that if he could stay healthy and command his offerings, good things were in store. After six starts, Hughes has been pretty much everything I'd hoped. His control has been excellent and he has attacked the strike zone, even after some bad fortune early on (opponents hit an absurd .409 on balls in play in his first three starts). As that has begun to normalize, Hughes has quickly emerged as the team's best starter. In fact, he's head-and-shoulders above the rest. While an inability to last deep into games was one of the marks against him in New York, Hughes has completed at least five innings and kept his team in the game every time out, and that's not true for anyone else on the staff. Also, in a rotation where -- very disturbingly -- no other starter is averaging more than 4.7 K/9IP, Hughes is providing a much-needed change of pace at 7.6. He is striking out nearly five hitters for every one he walks; every other starter's ratio has been close to one to one (or in Pelfrey's case, tilted in the wrong direction). Simply put, Hughes has been everything the Twins need him to be, and there's no doubt that right now they're feeling pretty good about having the 27-year-old locked up for the next three years. ~~~ Sunday's win was big because it gave the Twins a series victory heading into a long and difficult road trip. It was also big because it gives YOU 50% off your order from PapaJohns.com on Monday with the promo code "TWINSWIN." By the way, we've been giving away tons of free pizzas on our Facebook and Twitter pages, and will continue to do so. Make sure you're following along for your chance at a free dinner, along with all sorts of other baseball goodness.
-
Although offense has hardly been a problem for the Twins here in the early going, finding a viable solution at shortstop remains a top-ranking priority for the long-term success of the club. It's one of the most important positions on the field and it's been a frustrating problem area for this franchise for many years. Rarely has the deficiency at short been more noticeable than it is now, with Pedro Florimon batting .115 and sporting a horrendous .366 OPS. At a position where the offensive expectations are relatively low, Florimon has been beyond inadequate. The lowest qualifying OPS for a shortstop is Zach Cozart's .473 in Cincinnati; that still beats Florimon's present mark by more than 100 points. No amount of defensive aptitude makes up for that kind of anemic production at the plate. The Twins need to upgrade. And what's most worrisome is that they don't really have any appealing replacement candidates lined up, now or in the remotely near future. Eduardo Nunez doesn't field well enough to be a regular MLB shortstop, especially on a contact-heavy staff that induces lots of ground balls. After a strong offensive showing in spring camp, the defensively erratic Danny Santana is hitting .268 with a sub-.700 OPS in Triple-A. Jorge Polanco, whose bat looks far more promising, is currently at Single-A and he has committed 11 errors in 21 games at short, suggesting that his glove is a long way from big-league ready (I still think he ends up at second). So if the Twins are truly interested in addressing their shortstop problem with authority, they need to look outside the organization. To that end, Stephen Drew has been a popular name. He's still sitting out there in free agency as clubs have scoffed at the idea of meeting his asking price while also giving up a high draft pick. Here's the problem with trying to sign Drew: either you try to make it happen now, which would require forfeiting a second-round pick in this June's draft, or you make a play for him after the draft, which would remove the pick compensation from the equation but would force you to compete with many other teams who will also be bidding more aggressively. And here's the bigger problem: it's not clear that Drew is all that good. Last year he was a solid offensive contributor, hitting .253/.333/.443 with 13 homers. Quality production from a shortstop, and perhaps quite enticing if you believe he'll match it year in and year out. But in the two seasons prior, Drew hit just .238/.313/.373 with 12 home runs total. He strikes out a ton. And he's already on the wrong side of 30. While he's almost certain to be an upgrade over Florimon, Drew doesn't strike me as being worthy of a sizable investment. So if you want to take the free agency approach, the alternative is to wait it out until the offseason. Try to find some workable stopgap for the rest of this year -- whether that's Santana, Nunez, Eduardo Escobar, or someone else -- and then put some of those hefty cash reserves to use. Who will be available? Let's take an early glance: Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE Cabrera hasn't been able to back up his breakout campaign in 2011, when he was an All-Star and Silver Slugger with 25 homers and 92 RBI. His numbers have sagged in each of the last two seasons and this year he has really struggled to get going. He also isn't considered a particularly great defender. However, he's still only 28, and even with his numbers dropping off in the past two campaigns he has still managed to total 30 homers with a .732 OPS that is perfectly solid for a shortstop. He's also almost certain to be available, since Cleveland will be transitioning to top prospect Francisco Lindor soon. In fact, if Lindor (currently in Double-A) forces the issue it's possible that the Twins could pull off a midseason trade for Cabrera and then work out an extension. Hanley Ramirez, LAD Here's an interesting name. Ramirez was one of the best hitters in the league last year and garnered MVP votes despite playing only 86 games. He's raking again here in April, with an .857 OPS and a league-leading 11 doubles. There were some reports earlier this spring that the Dodgers and Ramirez were talking extension but it's been all quiet since. If the 30-year-old does hit the market, he's sure to be very expensive but he has the potential to be an offensive centerpiece and one of the most dramatic upgrades imaginable. J.J. Hardy, BAL The Twins misguidedly dumped Hardy after the 2010 season because they wanted to change directions and go with Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who they felt better fit their shortstop mold. Hardy has since won two Gold Gloves and bashed 77 homers in three seasons with the Orioles. It was, without question, one of the most blatantly and inexcusably horrendous personnel decisions this organization has ever made, but there's no use dwelling on it. The question at this point is whether it would be worth exploring the idea of bringing Hardy back. The answer is probably not. He'll be 32 after this season and although his purported lack of traditional athleticism hasn't stopped him from being a high-end shortstop over the past three years, it might be a sign that he won't age particularly well. Plus, would Hardy really want to return to a team that clearly never valued him as they should have? Jed Lowrie, OAK Lowrie is currently making $5.25 million in his final year of arbitration, and is set to hit free agency for the first time in the offseason. He's been a very good hitter in each of the last two years and has looked phenomenal in the early weeks this season, with a .286/.423/.429 slash line that is driven in part by a 13/20 K/BB ratio. He's a switch-hitter with a consistently successful track record, and he's only 30. He's also highly unlikely to re-up in Oakland, with top prospect Addison Russell on the way and the A's typically averse to big-money deals. There are a few older and less interesting names slated to be available, such as Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal and Mike Aviles, but those mentioned above are the ones worth focusing on. Assuming that those guys don't sign extensions, they'll comprise one of the more intriguing free agent shortstop crops in recent memory. With the Twins grasping for answers at the position, and likely to be working with an enormous cash surplus, the timing could hardly be better.
-
A right wrist injury that bothered Oswaldo Arcia late in the 2013 season flared up again earlier this month, causing the young outfielder to miss a couple weeks of action just as his season was getting started. Now, Arcia is by all accounts ready to put the wrist ailment behind him. He took batting practice on Target Field without incident Friday and then headed to Rochester, where he began his rehab assignment by going 3-for-3 as the DH on Saturday. He played six more innings Sunday. It looks like Arcia is almost ready to return. But are the Twins ready for him? The offense has been surprisingly productive in Arcia's absence, thanks in large part to contributions from Jason Kubel, Chris Colabello and Josmil Pinto. Those three have been regularly occupying the corner outfield and DH spots, leaving no obvious landing spot for Arcia when he comes off the disabled list. In the big picture, you can certainly argue that Arcia is more important to the team's offensive success than any of Kubel, Colabello and Pinto, but right now there is -- dare I say? -- a logjam of quality bats. Could the hard-swinging 22-year-old be left in Triple-A when he's activated from the DL? Arcia's emphatic reaction after a key late-game triple in the season-opening series against the White Sox will go down as one of the month's highlights, but he hadn't done much outside of that in early action. In 18 plate appearances, he had six strikeouts, one walk and two hits. That's obviously too small a sample to base much on, but he was swinging out of his shoes a bit, and now he's coming back from a prolonged absence, so the Twins might just want to see him demonstrate in Rochester for a while longer that he's got his timing and he has reined in his swing. He needs to be playing every day and right now that would be hard to accomplish without drastically altering a formula that's working in Minnesota. Josmil Pinto has been one of the team's best hitters and he should probably stick mostly at DH for now, since his defense has been erratic and Kurt Suzuki has been very good all-around behind the plate. Condensing Jason Kubel and Chris Colabello into a platoon in left field is an option. That would make sense for Kubel, who is characteristically struggling against southpaws with a .192 average, but Colabello has actually been better against righties, as is typical for him. Also, how do you demote a guy who has been as crucial to your offense -- and as unbelievably fun to watch -- as Colabello to a part-time role? The Twins essentially have to keeping riding him unless he cools off substantially. If one of the players currently in the mix gets hurt or hits a wall, or if Arcia rakes in Triple-A to a degree that it's no longer palatable to keep him there, a switch can be made quickly. Right now, the Twins are in a position where they can afford to be very patient with their uber-talented young slugger. One thing they cannot afford to do is put him back on the MLB roster if he won't be playing almost every day.
-
Despite the fact that more than half their games have been on the road and five of their seven series have been against clubs that finished with winning records last year, the Twins are above .500 after 21 games. They've managed to win despite starting pitching that has been astonishingly bad. Nearly everyone expected improvement from the rotation after large offseason investments were made, but so far the Twins have gotten a 5.91 ERA from their starters, a regression from last year's 5.26 mark. The key to the early success has been outscoring the opposition, specifically by getting on base more often. This was well exemplified in Thursday's series-clinching victory against the Rays. Three of the first five hitters to face Erik Bedard reached on a free pass, and all three ended up scoring to give Minnesota a lead it would never relinquish. As we approach the end of April, the Twins are leading the Majors in walks taken. This continues a shift toward increased plate patience that we've seen in the past few seasons. As you can see below, the lineup has been gradually reshaping its reputation. Here are their MLB ranks in walks since their postseason run began in 2002: 2002: 25th 2003: 20th 2004: 17th 2005: 19th 2006: 22nd 2007: 19th 2008: 22nd 2009: 12th 2010: 8th 2011: 27th 2012: 10th 2013: 7th 2014: 1st During their glory years, the Twins frequently had one of the better team batting averages in the league, but they almost always ranked in the bottom half in terms of walks. The lopsided philosophical emphasis on limiting walks for pitchers versus a lack of emphasis on drawing walks for hitters always seemed to represent a blatant contradiction in the coaching staff's approach. The Twins have always viewed the base on balls as a dangerous weapon for the opposing offense, but consistently failed to deploy it as a featured component of their own offensive attack. Now they are, and it's paying off. One of the central concepts in sabermetrics is that the most important aspect of scoring runs is getting on base. The Twins are reinforcing that now. They currently rank second in the American League in scoring despite ranking eighth in batting average and 10th in slugging. But thanks to their propensity for drawing the free pass, they lead the league in on-base percentage. The high volume of base runners has created plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Obviously guys like Chris Colabello, who leads the AL in RBI, have been taking advantage, but as a team the Twins are hitting only .256 with runners in scoring position. The bottom line is that if you put enough men on base, you're going to score runs, even if your lineup lacks a bunch of dominant hitters. Is the increase in walks reflective of the Twins embracing this notion? Tom Brunansky, who took over as hitting coach last year, was a guy who relied on the free pass during his playing days, helping him put together an impressive career as a batsman despite a .245 lifetime average. When you consider that the Twins have had their two highest MLB ranks for walks in the last 13 years during Brunansky's two years as an instructor, it's hard to downplay his influence. That's especially true when you look at some of the specific examples. Trevor Plouffe, who has struggled with plate discipline for most of his career in the Majors (and Minors, for that matter) has 14 walks in 21 games and a .412 OBP. Brian Dozier had a 7 percent BB rate during his first two years with the Twins; he's at 16 percent early this season. Perhaps the most noteworthy is Josmil Pinto, a rookie who entered this season with only 40 games played above Double-A. He's drawn walks in nearly a quarter of his trips to the plate (22.5 percent), which not only gives him the team lead but ranks second in the majors behind Jose Bautista. As spring came to a close, it was clear that the Twins weren't going to dominate offensively based on talent alone. Under such circumstances, a good team with smart coaches alters its overall approach to gain advantages in other ways. That's what we've seen from the Twins. Brunansky, the rest of the coaches and certainly the hitters themselves deserve a lot of credit for that. Hopefully they can continue to utilize that edge this weekend against the Tigers, who (somewhat surprisingly) have the fourth fewest walks of any AL team.
-
* The Twins rank third in the American League in run-scoring, which is pretty surprising on its own but even more so when you consider that Joe Mauer has chipped in very little thus far. I certainly don't mean to contribute to the typical Mauer panic that arises any time he goes through any kind of slump, but the slow start is noteworthy. Early on, he's striking out way more than ever before (27 percent K-rate) yet hitting for no power (three extra-base hits and a .321 slugging percentage in 90 plate appearances). In fact, dating back to spring training, Mauer has 33 hits and 29 of them are singles. That's not going to help change his reputation as a "singles hitter" and it's also the opposite of what most of us were hoping to see with the transition away from catcher. As he's reminded us many times before, Mauer is the kind of hitter who can go on a week-long hot streak that will make us forget all about stretches like this one, but it bears noting that his current OPS -- at .677 -- is the lowest it's ever been at this point in the season outside of 2011. * Mike Pelfrey's struggles this month have been sort of bizarre. It's not really peculiar to see him pitching poorly -- that's happened plenty before -- but I find the nature of the hardships strange. Typically, as a pitcher moves further away from Tommy John surgery he tends to gain velocity and sharpen his command. Over time, the scar tissue heals, the arm strengthens and the pitcher regains a feel for his pitches. That has not been the case for Pelfrey. Last April, while making an incredibly quick return from his elbow operation, Pelf was ineffective but he was throwing strikes and his fastball was registering in the mid-90s. This year his velocity has dropped with each start, to the point where in his last outing he flashed his lowest radar readings in the last three years while also issuing five walks and throwing only 52 percent of his pitches for strikes. Last year he issued four or more walks twice in 29 starts. He's now done it in both of his last two. Pelfrey claims that he's "not panicking" but it seems pretty clear that something isn't right. I've generally been in favor of giving him (and any other starter signed beyond this year) a long leash, but the Twins can't justify continuing to feed him starts if he's throwing like this. From my view, this isn't a "send him to the bullpen" situation. This is a "stick him on the DL and figure out what the heck is wrong with his arm" situation. Maybe that happens if we see similar results on Wednesday night. * With Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia both on the disabled list, Josmil Pinto has taken over as the regular DH and has made good on the opportunity by flashing some prodigious power. Photo by Peter Aiken, USA TODAY Sports Pinto is batting just .239, but his slugging percentage is at .522 thanks to four homers and a double in 60 plate appearances. Among big-leaguers with 50+ PA, he ranks fifth in Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Just as encouraging as the early pop is Pinto's strike zone control. He has drawn 14 walks -- contributing to an outstanding .417 OBP -- against just 13 strikeouts. He looks terrific at the plate, which is one of the best developments possible in a season where the Twins are trying to figure out their future at catcher.
-
Three-Bagger: Muted Mauer, Pelfrey's Problems & Pinto's Pop
Nick Nelson posted a blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
-
Twins Searching For Answers at Short and Center
Nick Nelson posted a blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
-
Out of the 276 major-league players that accrued 300 or more plate appearances last year, Pedro Florimon and Aaron Hicks ranked 257th and 261st in OPS, respectively. Although they made up for it somewhat with strong defense at key positions, both were among the worst hitters in baseball, so it was puzzling that the Twins entered this season without much in the way of backup plans at either shortstop or center field. Unfortunately, Florimon and Hicks have both been offensive liabilities early on, and their lackluster production now has the club scrambling for potential replacement options. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Florimon showed little with the bat last season; this year, he missed half of spring camp and didn't hit when he started playing. That has carried into the regular season, where he's batting .150 with a .469 OPS through 16 games. Hicks, trying to rebound from a disastrous rookie campaign, once again excelled in spring training and has once again gone flat in the regular season. Entering Sunday's game against Kansas City, he had been hitting the ball into the ground in 58 percent of his at-bats. He proceeded to tap into three more ground ball outs from the left side in an 0-for-4 effort that dropped his average to .167. In 36 at-bats as a lefty hitter, Hicks has three hits -- all singles. Although he's reading pitches a bit better, his swing from that side of the plate continues to look hopelessly ineffective. He's not driving the ball or generating any lift. The Twins will give him every chance to find himself at the dish, but patience does appear to be wearing thin. They were unimpressed enough with Darin Mastroianni -- who hasn't been the same since last year's foot injury -- that they designated him for assignment and claimed Sam Fuld, who himself had been the victim of a 40-man roster squeeze in Oakland. Fuld is an excellent defensive player but he's been a pretty lousy hitter, with a .233/.312/.334 line in 373 MLB games. It sounds like the Twins want to use his lefty bat some against right-handers, spelling Hicks from his weaker side, but Fuld has a .637 career OPS against righties. Needless to say, assistant GM Rob Antony's statement that he hopes Fuld can "add a little life to the offense" is a damning indictment that speaks only to how lifeless Hicks' bat has been. The same can be said of a similar quote Antony had about the acquisition of Eduardo Nunez, who came over from the Yankees in return for minor-league pitcher Miguel Sulbaran. "We believe he's an upgrade over some guys we have," Antony said of Nunez, which again speaks to the sad present state of the position in question. Nunez has a career OPS+ of 87, meaning he's been well below average, and he's also reputed as one of the worst defensive infielders in the league. It's not hard to see why the Yankees were willing to part with him, yet he still might be the most feasible replacement if Florimon continues to contribute nothing offensively. At shortstop, Florimon is a standout defender on a unit that has looked quite shaky at times. That's earning him some extra leash, just as Hicks' youth and ability have done for him in center. But ultimately if these two don't find some semblance of a rhythm at the plate, the Twins will have to look elsewhere. As their recent moves suggest, right now they don't like what they're seeing. ~~~ Since the Twins were able to avoid a sweep by thumping the Royals on Sunday, you can get 50% off a L or XL pizza from PapaJohns.com all day Monday if you use the 'TWINSWIN' promo code. Or maybe you've got a free pizza coming? On Monday morning we'll be drawing and announcing 10 winners for our Pizza Party contest, so if you participated, check in to see if you're among the recipients of a free dinner.
-
In 2013, the Minnesota Twins rotation was essentially in shambles from the get-go. Liam Hendriks started the team's fourth game of the season. Pedro Hernandez started the sixth. Those two combined with Andrew Albers, P.J. Walters and Cole DeVries to make a total of 40 starts for the Twins last year. Now, they're all out of the organization, buried in Triple-A for other clubs (or in Korea) and unlikely to spend much if any time in the majors. Meanwhile, the Twins have vastly improved their pitching depth, and that's reflected by the group that lies in waiting at the Triple-A level should the starting five experience anything resembling last year's plight. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As we know, the problems for the 2013 rotation started at the top. Opening Day starter Vance Worley was a mess, and the guy who would have held that assignment if he was healthy -- Scott Diamond -- also endured a horrible year. But equally troubling was the lack of reasonable contingency plans behind the initially slated group, and that weakness was exposed repeatedly throughout the summer. Hendriks, Hernandez, Albers, Walters and DeVries were pretty clearly not major-league caliber talents, yet they combined to start about a quarter of the team's games while posting a 6.21 ERA. This time around, the Twins are much more solidified at the top (their starting five have actually remained intact through two whole turns of the rotation) but ultimately it is inevitable that the team will need to tap into its depth when someone gets hurt or falls into a prolonged slump. When that time comes, the options will be far more appealing than they were a year ago. The Rochester Red Wings rotation now includes two of the organization's Top 10 prospects in Alex Meyer and Trevor May, both of whom have looked sharp in early action. Kris Johnson, the eventual prize from Pittsburgh in the Justin Morneau deal, has put up a 2.70 ERA over his first two starts. Logan Darnell, who had a very strong season between Double-A and Triple-A last year, hurled four scoreless frames in his first start. Incidentally, the only starter on the Rochester staff who hasn't performed well thus far is Scott Diamond, who was among the very last cuts for the Twins in camp. Of particular interest among the group in Triple-A are May and Meyer, who have a real chance to make an immediate impact and become long-term fixtures. You obviously can't make too much out of the first couple starts of the season, but considering that command is likely the top question mark for both, it's encouraging to see that the two have issued a total of three walks in 19 2/3 innings (with a combined 23 strikeouts to boot). In addition to those reinforcements waiting in the minors, the Twins have Samuel Deduno -- last year's most successful starter -- sitting in an ill-suited bullpen role waiting for a chance. He should actually be first in line, in my opinion, but he adds to an intriguing fallback mix that sets the club up for much more pitching success over the course of the year, even if things go amiss for some of the presently installed rotation members.
-
Rotation Reinforcements Waiting in the (Red) Wings
Nick Nelson posted a blog entry in Nick's Twins Blog
-
The fact that the Twins sit at 6-6 after two weeks could be viewed as a surprise in and of itself, given their low expectations and some of the rough patches we've already seen. Of course, anything can happen over the course of 12 games, and that applies to individual players as well as the team as a whole. Still, the first half of April has been marked by some surprising developments -- from my perspective, at least. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Jason Kubel's Defense Coming in, my expectation was that Kubel would prove to be a superior option in the field to Josh Willingham and perhaps Oswaldo Arcia. That spoke more to the height of the bar being set than to Kubel's actual defensive prowess. Not only has Kubel shown in these first few weeks that he's clearly better than both Willingham and Arcia in the corner spots, he's actually looked quite good. He's not fast by any means, but he moves around well out there and generally takes good routes. Plus, his arm is a cannon. I've been impressed by a few of the rockets he's unleashed toward the infield. During Kubel's previous time in Minnesota, I always felt he was underrated as a defender. Even at 31 and after battling a leg injury, that remains true. Brian Dozier's Power Last year Dozier went deep 18 times to lead the team. That was two more home runs than his total in 365 minor-league games. The power outburst was so sudden and stark that it seemed there was no way he'd repeat it this year, even if you assumed he'd continue to be a strong offensive contributor. Yet, rather than regressing, Dozier has been launching dingers at an even higher rate in this young season. Through 12 games, he has already tallied four long balls. That would extrapolate to 54 homers in a full season, and while he's obviously not going to sustain that rate, it's a promising sign that his increased pop in 2013 was legit. Trevor Plouffe's Plate Discipline Over the past two seasons, the same primary issue has been apparent in Plouffe's offensive game: lack of pitch recognition. Outside of a few stretches where he was really locked in, the third baseman consistently chased and played into the pitcher's hand. He entered this season with a career 289-to-96 K/BB ratio in 351 MLB games. When I talked to him in spring training, Plouffe called out pitch recognition as one of his main focuses entering this year, and so far the efforts appear to be paying off. In the first two weeks, he actually has more walks (9) than strikeouts (8), which is a radical and refreshing change. In just 12 games, he has already drawn more than a quarter of last year's walk total (34). The improved approach hasn't yet resulted in a home run for Plouffe, but he is batting .326 with a .446 on-base percentage, justifying his recent presence in the lineup's No. 3 spot. Joe Mauer's Strikeouts Whereas Plouffe has cut down on the whiffs, Mauer continues to veer away from his previous standing as one of the game's foremost contact hitters. Last year he struck out in 17.5 percent of his plate appearances -- a noticeable leap from his career 10.4 percent rate. Early this year, he's striking out in a whopping 24.6 percent of his trips. For a standard major-league player, that's not an extraordinarily high rate (the league as a whole is at 21 percent) but for a guy like Mauer it is striking, even in a small sample. I'm sure there are plenty of fans out there who would trade more strikeouts for more power from the franchise's premier player, and perhaps Saturday's impressive three-run blast pulled high over the wall in right-center is an indication we're headed that way. Mike Pelfrey's Control Problems Say what you will about Pelfrey's performance last year; at least he was decent at throwing strikes. He didn't issue more than two walks in a game for the first time until May 26th (his 10th start). This year he has done so in each of his first two turns, notching seven walks against six strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings of work. Pelfrey is always going to give up a lot of hits, so he simply cannot afford to be handing out a bunch of free passes to further jam up the bases. Obviously it's been hurting him plenty so far.
-
In 2013, the Oakland Athletics averaged 9.7 runs per game in their seven tilts against the Twins, and 4.5 runs per game against all other opponents. Oakland's reign of terror against the team that ruined its happy ending in Moneyball continued this week, as the A's thoroughly dismantled Minnesota in a rather sparsely attended home-opening sweep. After investing $84 million into the rotation during the offseason, the Twins have received painfully similar results from their starting pitchers.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The first series at Target Field was all too familiar: three games in which the starters dug an early hole and the offense couldn't dig out. In total, the Twins have gotten one quality start from their rotation in nine games during a 3-6 start. They are getting blasted. Meanwhile, their best starter from 2013 sits in the bullpen waiting to mop up the messes that have been created. The decision to move Samuel Deduno into a relief role seemed strange at the end of camp and seems stranger now. He's certainly among the top five pitchers on the club in terms of stuff, and he's been on a heck of a run the last couple years, but he's being forced to sit around in the bullpen while the Twins' signature brand of bat-seeking two-seamers gets plastered all about the yard. Deduno as a reliever just doesn't look like a fit. He's pitching in a role where the situations are often close and late, and every mistake is magnified. Case in point: in his first appearance of the season, Deduno entered in the 11th inning of a 6-6 game. He put a couple runners on base and then ended up letting the winning score in on a wild pitch. In one of the games against Oakland, he turned a three-run deficit into a four-run deficit by balking in a run. Even Deduno's fiercest proponents (I consider myself one of them) would not deny that he is erratic and mistake-prone. He's a wild card on the mound. When given six innings, he can make up for his missteps by baffling the majority of opposing hitters. But he's not a guy you want to be bringing into a one-run game with runners on base. So the assignment seems forced. To his credit, the miscast mop-up man has performed well overall; after tossing three scoreless innings in relief of Mike Pelfrey Thursday, Deduno owns a 3.00 ERA with nine strikeouts in eight innings. But he's not in the proper role and he's being set aside for some guys who are not getting the job done. I have no illusions that the Twins are going to be a playoff team this year, but I think I speak for every fan out there when I say that the type of games witnessed at Target Field this week are quickly going to drain my interest. There should be little patience for these shoddy performances. Kevin Correia's leash ought to be exceedingly short. He's not in the future plans and he's not very good right now. I have more faith in Mike Pelfrey and Phil Hughes, and both are signed beyond this year, but if their results don't improve the Twins shouldn't hesitate to swap one with Deduno and put it on their shoulders to force their way back into the rotation. After all, Deduno is the only one who has really earned anything. He had a 3.83 ERA last year. He was the team's only good starter. What's going on here, anyway? In a lot of respects, I have a hard time getting worked up about the Twins' bad start, mostly because my expectations were quite low to begin with. But some of the decisions that have led them to where they're at are hard to stomach. They're starting Chris Herrmann and Darin Mastroianni in right field within the first 10 days of the season because they waived their only credible fourth outfielder in order to keep Jason Bartlett. Their best starting pitcher from last year is relegated to a mismatched relief role despite out-pitching everyone else in spring training. I want to believe in this regime. There have been signs that things are heading in a better direction. But what I'm seeing so far has me both scratching and shaking my head.
-
It happened again on Tuesday. A local mainstream writer put out a column that was, to some extent, critical of Joe Mauer, and the reactions from fans were highly visceral on both sides. The piece in question came from Patrick Reusse, suggesting that the onus is on Mauer (who still hasn't driven in a run this year) to step up and carry the team back to respectability. Some saw it as a reinforcement of the reservations they have long held about Mauer. Others saw it as another in a long string of unfair media attacks on the team's best player[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], a guy who has been used as a central scapegoat and punching bag during the franchise's ongoing lull. What is it about Mauer that makes him such a divisive and controversial figure among fans and writers? It's a question I've long pondered. There's no question that Mauer gets far too much grief for a player of his ability and accomplishment. Traditional media types grumble because he doesn't fit the classic superstar mold, and fans follow course. He shies away from reporters, he isn't a vocal clubhouse fixture, he has missed time often due to injuries and he doesn't rack up big HR and RBI totals. These overblown critiques have led to a swelling of backlash amongst those who, despite not even necessarily being huge Mauer fans, feel the need to position themselves as defenders. After all, Mauer is the team's best player and one of the best players in franchise history. Maybe we should spend a little more time appreciating his strengths rather than bemoaning his shortcomings. To be clear, Mauer does have shortcomings. He's not witout faults, and that sometimes gets lost in the rush to defend him against outrageous detractions. He hasn't been able to stay on the field, which isn't really his fault -- a punishing position and bad luck have been chief culprits -- but remains a mark against him. He also doesn't hit for a ton of power and doesn't run all that well. That means that although Mauer's abilities to spray line drives to left field and get on base at an elite rate are extremely valuable skills, they don't stand out as much in a bad offense. When other players in the lineup are hitting, Mauer will drive them in or get driven in. When the lineup is struggling, he often ends up getting stuck at first and second base. He doesn't create offense single-handedly in the way someone like Justin Morneau did. And that's why, in a season like last year where the lineup was filled with underperformers, Mauer finished with only 47 RBI and 62 runs scored in 113 games despite a .324 batting average and .880 OPS. When the offense is fully functioning, as it was in 2006 or 2010, Mauer is a transformative cog and an MVP-caliber contributor. When the rest of the players are scuffling, Mauer isn't really the type of player who will "carry" an offense, as Reusse beckons him to do in his latest column. At least that hasn't been the case in the past. Maybe it changes here in 2014 with Mauer transitioning to first base full-time. Maybe he moves a little closer to the form he showed in 2009, when he truly could power an offense rather than facilitate it. The signs haven't been real positive to that end, but it's still very early, and the 30-year-old is adapting to a new position while also shaking off rust after missing the last chunk of 2013 and dealing with lingering concussion symptoms during the offseason. I know many people want to see Mauer take more of a lead in driving the offense's production. He's very highly paid (which seems kind of irrelevant at this point), he's the first baseman and -- above all -- he's the most talented hitter on the team. I don't think those people are necessarily misguided, at least until they start calling him an overpaid slap hitter. I myself would like to see Mauer take on a role where he's putting the ball over the fence more frequently, and is more aggressive early in the count with runners on base. If that doesn't happen, and he continues to be the patient and deliberate Joe Mauer we've come to know, I'll still enjoy watching him. He's one of the very best. But unless other players around him in the batting order are the ones stepping up, he may not have the means to make a profound impact on this club's run production.
-
-
The Minnesota Twins announced on Monday during their home opener that they have traded LHP Miguel Sulbaran to the New York Yankees in exchange for infielder Eduardo Nunez. Sulbaran was acquired as the player to be named later in last year's deal that sent Drew Butera to the Dodgers. He is 20 years old and has yet to pitch above low Single-A. As a diminutive lefty with strong numbers in the minors, Sulbaran's most likely big-league role is a southpaw in the bullpen, though he's still got a ways to get there. Nunez, 26, has played in 270 games for the Yankees since debuting in 2010.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He fills a clear organizational need for the Twins, who are thin on quality reinforcements in the middle infield at Triple-A with Eddie Rosario still absent for personal reasons and Danny Santana looking questionable defensively. If Pedro Florimon's bat can't get going, Nunez provides a nice insurance policy. He's nothing special, but he is a .267/.313/.379 career hitter in the majors. Last year Florimon hit .221/.281/.330 with the Twins, and he entered Monday's contest with one single in 19 plate appearances this season. For now, Nunez has been added to the 40-man roster and will be sent to Class-AAA Rochester.
-
Three-Bagger: Collabello Crushing, Comeback Kubel & Ice-Cold Nolasco
Nick Nelson posted an article in Twins
* The Twins' offense has been a very pleasant surprise in the first week of the season. Though it hasn't always been pretty, and sloppy play from opposing defenses in Chicago and Cleveland were undeniable contributors, the Twins have scored 38 runs through their first six games. The biggest story in the lineup is Chris Colabello. He has already piled up 11 RBI in five starts after hitting .349 in spring play. This guy is just sitting dead red. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Colabello has struck out five times in 24 plate appearances (a promising early reduction from last year's sky-high 32 percent K-rate) and he's batting .500 on balls in play. Obviously that's not sustainable, but it speaks to how well he's driving the ball. He's been an unexpected anchor in the Twins' lineup, and right now he's appointment viewing for fans. Colabello feels like the biggest singular reason the Twins are at 3-3 after a season-opening road trip where the weather was crisp but the play often was not. Shaded by all the crazy elements of his journey, Collabello's immense success right off the bat has been energizing for a fan base that was notably subdued at the outset of the season. * Jason Kubel's fast start has been largely overshadowed by the heroics of Colabello, but it's no less encouraging. Kubel has been in the starting lineup for three games, and has delivered multiple hits in each. Sunday's 2-for-4 effort lifted his average to .412. While you can only put so much stock into these things, Kubel showed distinct improvement over the course of spring camp. He was whiffing constantly in the early games, but by the later weeks was connecting with frequency. I remember being struck by Ron Gardenhire's answer to a question about Kubel after a Grapefruit League game in Ft. Myers. "I worry about some things, I don't worry about Kube," he said. "Kube can hit. He's always been able to hit. If he just goes out and gets his swinging in and gets comfortable, the guy can light it up, I know that. He's healthy, I know he can hit." It was a particularly matter-of-fact response about a player who was designated for assignment by one team and benched by another during a challenging 2013, but Gardy echoes Kubel's assertion that a lingering quad injury was primarily responsible for those struggles. If that proves to be the case, he could turn out to be quite a find, because Kubel was an above-average hitter (by OPS+) for six straight seasons prior to last year. Gardenhire has done a good job of playing match-ups and deploying the righty-masher strategically so far, but that essentially goes out the window now that Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia are both batting sore wrists. For the time being, it appears that Kubel will be a regular in the outfield. Hopefully the manager's confidence continues to be rewarded. Photo by David Banks, USA TODAY Sports * While these early games have been marked by a refreshing uptick in offense, it's been the same old story for the pitching staff. After leading the majors in hits allowed in 2013, the Twins have allowed double-digit knocks in each of their first six contests. The first turn through the rotation produced one quality start, from (who else?) Kevin Correia. On Sunday, Ricky Nolasco delivered his second straight clunky outing -- an inauspicious debut for the prized offseason acquisition. Nolasco throws a lot of breaking stuff, and in his first two starts we've seen too many flat pitches and floaters. But at the same time, this is a guy who's pitched in southern Florida for the last eight years, and is now trying to spin all kinds of pitches in the chill of the springtime Midwest. I suspect that as the weather heats up, so too will Nolasco. The rotation could use a stabilizing force.

