Nick Nelson

Download attachment: Storm_clouds.jpg Well, I never expected it would be this bad. Sure, I had plenty of doubts about these 2012 Twins. I realized I was being somewhat optimistic when I projected them to finish around .500, and I also realized that there was a chance injuries could pile up and send the club into the same sort of spiral that engulfed it last summer. The thing is, the roster has remained relatively healthy. Outside of Scott Baker, the Twins have largely been playing with the group that they hoped to have this season. And yet, they've still been almost every bit as bad as they were in the final two months of the 2011 season, when under-qualified minor-leaguers filled the lineup and apathy seemed to take hold of a team that dropped 41 of its final 54 games. It's getting worse, not better. What is going on? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] A sense of hopelessness currently permeates this organization from top to bottom. Players and coaches are despondent in their quotes. The front office appears totally clueless, cycling through Quad-A players like Clete Thomas and Erik Komatsu while making the same kind of blunders handling injured players as they did last year. The lineup, which figured to be Minnesota's greatest strength, just went through the worst offensive slump in modern major-league history. And then of course there's the starting pitching. It's been outrageously awful, and there's little hope on the horizon. Just take a look at the organization's top three pitching prospects: 1) Liam Hendriks opened the season with the big-league club after a good spring and has been utterly over-matched by MLB hitters, posting a 9.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP and 9-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio while coughing up five homers in 18 innings. He's now been replaced in the rotation by Scott Diamond, who will probably fare better but not by a lot. 2) Kyle Gibson is recovering from Tommy John. He's expected back next year, but Twins fans know all too well that the process of returning to full strength after elbow surgery can drag on and ding a pitcher's upside. 3) Alex Wimmers, whom the Twins were also counting on to be knocking on the door next year, is currently on the shelf indefinitely with – what else? – an elbow tear. The medical staff has opted to avoid surgery for now, but we know how that goes. Aside from Diamond, Nick Blackburn is the only current member of the rotation under contract beyond this year. The Twins don't have quality pitching prospects coming up on the farm, they don't have many assets that they can trade for impact arms, and with attendance dropping precipitously it seems highly unlikely that they'll come up with the money it takes to bring in legitimate help through free agency. This organization is in dire shape. Here in Year 3 of a beautiful new stadium, the current situation is downright depressing. Strong leadership is required to bring the Twins out of this miserable funk, and frankly the front office's bumbling desperation hardly inspires confidence. It's time to make something happen. This is beyond unacceptable, and the fans deserve a whole lot better. I'm not calling for anyone to lose their job, I'm calling for some people to step the hell up. Click here to view the article

No one would deny that this has been a relatively aggressive offseason for Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins. Already we've seen them sign two starting pitchers to larger contracts than they've ever given a free agent in the past, and they followed up by adding Mike Pelfrey on a two-year deal. On top of that, there are some whispers that the Twins might still be pursuing another arm to round out the rotation. Of course, the club's efforts to improve the offense have been far less ambitious.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The additions to this unit have amounted to a DH who posted a .610 OPS last year and a catcher who checked in at .627. Both those figures make Minnesota's .692 team OPS in 2013,which ranked 12th in the AL, look stellar. While the starting rotation was undoubtedly the team's most glaring weakness, run-scoring has clearly been an issue for the Twins and nothing they've done so far this winter is obviously going to alleviate that problem. But if you look closely, there are plenty of reasons to believe the lineup can be significantly more potent in 2014. Let's list a few: A stronger Joe Mauer. There's a lot of concern that Mauer's overall value could be dinged significantly by his move from behind the plate. That's a legit gripe, but we also might surmise that the transition to a less physically demanding position will lead to improvement in Mauer's offensive game. He's dealt with a ton of lower-body injuries related to catching over the years, and it's hard to believe those haven't had a cumulative effect on his ability to drive the ball at times. With stronger legs underneath him, the elite batsman may be able to produce more power than we've seen outside of that miraculous MVP campaign in 2009. Prospects on the scene. Josmil Pinto might be on the roster out of spring training. Same goes for Miguel Sano, though he's a less likely candidate. And of course Byron Buxton, the consensus top prospect in baseball, could be in the mix for a midseason promotion if he jumps out to a hot start in Double-A. The Twins have been ushering in a pretty ordinary group of young hitters over the past few years, but these kids -- particularly Sano and Buxton -- are top-flight talents that are really capable of making a difference. Center field has to get better. Led by the overmatched Aaron Hicks and the under-equipped Clete Thomas, Twins center fielders hit .230/.295/.349 in 2013. That damage was magnified because the paltry production often came at the top of the order. In the coming season, the position is bound to contribute more to the offense, whether it's Hicks bouncing back, Alex Presley holding his own, or Buxton entering the fold at some point. Full year of Oswaldo Arcia. Download attachment: arciaswing.jpg Arcia had his ups and downs last year, with some notable stretches of extreme contact issues. At the end of the day, though, his performance was quite impressive for a 22-year-old getting his first taste of major-league competition. In 378 plate appearances, the Venezuelan slugger hit .251/.304/.430 with 14 homers. If you factor in some improvement as he adapts and puts in a full year's work, he could be a real asset in the middle of the lineup. Josh Willingham will rebound. Willingham endured by far the worst season of his career in 2013. Hampered by a nagging knee injury, he managed just 14 homers while batting .208 with a .709 OPS in 111 games. Hammer has dealt with injuries in the past, but they've never affected his performance like this. Since becoming a full-time player in 2006, he had registered an OPS of .810 or above every single year. He might be in a state of decline at age 35, but considering his consistent track record, there's no reason to expect anything resembling last year's ugly numbers unless the injury bug bites hard again. Jason Kubel could deliver, if used properly. Throughout his career, Kubel has been a liability against left-handed pitching -- a point of frustration when he's played for managers who refused to platoon him. Prior to 2013, he generally crushed righties, and clearly the Twins are banking on a rebound to previous form. What's nice is that, while Doumit grumbled at times last year about a lack of playing time, Kubel's incentive-laden minor-league contract might increase Ron Gardenhire's willingness to use him in a part-time role or to cut bait if he's not producing. More moves to come? We're still almost six weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Ft. Myers. Numerous players remain available on the market and the Twins still have plenty of money to spend if they so choose. There's no reason to assume they're done adding hitters, including guys who could provide a real jolt. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: lirianosulk.jpg On Monday night, Francisco Liriano is scheduled to make his 130th start in a Twins uniform. It might also be his last. With 25 strikeouts over his last two starts and a 2.84 ERA since the start of May, Liriano is the hottest pitcher in baseball. He also might be the most appealing rental available on the trade market, with Zack Greinke's market cooling and Cole Hamels perhaps closing in on an extension with the Phillies. Just over a week remains until the deadline, increasing the urgency for pitching-hungry contenders who could begin making hard pushes for the Minnesota left-hander, especially if he turns in another strong outing against the White Sox. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This is certainly not the kind of leverage Terry Ryan expected to have when Liriano sat with an 11.02 ERA after one month's play. As frustrating as his April was, Twins fans should be very thankful that he was able to pull things together and rattle off three excellent months, boosting his trade value with each passing start. At this point, with the bidding war that ought to take place, I'll be disappointed if the Twins don't come away with at least one impact prospect in a deal. Pay close attention to Liriano when he takes the hill against Gavin Floyd. It might be your last chance, because you can bet a dozen other teams will be doing the same. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: worleyspring.jpg There's really no way to put a positive spin on Vance Worley's start Tuesday night. With his chance of making the team very much on the line after back-to-back clunkers, the righty came out and delivered the worst outing of this spring -- for him or any other Twins starter. The final line: 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Six doubles allowed. ZERO swinging strikes on 61 pitches. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Reflecting on the game, a dejected Worley couldn't find words to explain the disastrous performance. "I threw some good pitches to [Evan Longoria], and he's definitely one of the better hitters in that lineup," Worley said, referring to his lone strikeout victim in the second inning. "And, um…" He paused for a moment. "Things happen. I really don't even know how to elaborate on that." Assistant general manager Rob Antony said before the game that the Twins would likely wait a little while yet to make decisions on any of the contenders for their fifth rotation spot, unless it became "obvious" that one was out of the running. It appears that we have reached that point with Worley, who has allowed 12 earned runs on 21 hits in 7 2/3 innings over his last three spring outings, with only 12 days remaining until the season opener. Worley insists that he's feeling good in his bullpen sessions, and that his pitches were moving the way he wanted them to in the game but he just couldn't seem to locate. It's a refrain we've heard before, and one that usually precedes a demotion. There are few things more concerning to a manager than a guy essentially throwing his hands up in the air. At this point the only real question surrounding Worley is whether he'll be working on figuring things out in Rochester or in another organization. The 26-year-old is out of options, and despite his tumultuous run since coming over from Philadelphia, the Twins would rather not lose him. Pitching depth is pitching depth, and the righty maintains some upside even if it's clear he doesn't belong in the majors right now. His brutal results this spring, in combination with his struggles last year, may be enough to dissuade other teams from claiming him. That would allow Worley to stay with the Twins and head to Triple-A, where he would likely join the pitcher who came over with him from the Phillies, Trevor May. There's your positive spin, I guess. Click here to view the article

In 2013, the Minnesota Twins rotation was essentially in shambles from the get-go. Liam Hendriks started the team's fourth game of the season. Pedro Hernandez started the sixth. Those two combined with Andrew Albers, P.J. Walters and Cole DeVries to make a total of 40 starts for the Twins last year. Now, they're all out of the organization, buried in Triple-A for other clubs (or in Korea) and unlikely to spend much if any time in the majors. Meanwhile, the Twins have vastly improved their pitching depth, and that's reflected by the group that lies in waiting at the Triple-A level should the starting five experience anything resembling last year's plight. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As we know, the problems for the 2013 rotation started at the top. Opening Day starter Vance Worley was a mess, and the guy who would have held that assignment if he was healthy -- Scott Diamond -- also endured a horrible year. But equally troubling was the lack of reasonable contingency plans behind the initially slated group, and that weakness was exposed repeatedly throughout the summer. Hendriks, Hernandez, Albers, Walters and DeVries were pretty clearly not major-league caliber talents, yet they combined to start about a quarter of the team's games while posting a 6.21 ERA. This time around, the Twins are much more solidified at the top (their starting five have actually remained intact through two whole turns of the rotation) but ultimately it is inevitable that the team will need to tap into its depth when someone gets hurt or falls into a prolonged slump. Download attachment: top-prospects-03-alex-meyer.jpg When that time comes, the options will be far more appealing than they were a year ago. The Rochester Red Wings rotation now includes two of the organization's Top 10 prospects in Alex Meyer and Trevor May, both of whom have looked sharp in early action. Kris Johnson, the eventual prize from Pittsburgh in the Justin Morneau deal, has put up a 2.70 ERA over his first two starts. Logan Darnell, who had a very strong season between Double-A and Triple-A last year, hurled four scoreless frames in his first start. Incidentally, the only starter on the Rochester staff who hasn't performed well thus far is Scott Diamond, who was among the very last cuts for the Twins in camp. Of particular interest among the group in Triple-A are May and Meyer, who have a real chance to make an immediate impact and become long-term fixtures. You obviously can't make too much out of the first couple starts of the season, but considering that command is likely the top question mark for both, it's encouraging to see that the two have issued a total of three walks in 19 2/3 innings (with a combined 23 strikeouts to boot). In addition to those reinforcements waiting in the minors, the Twins have Samuel Deduno -- last year's most successful starter -- sitting in an ill-suited bullpen role waiting for a chance. He should actually be first in line, in my opinion, but he adds to an intriguing fallback mix that sets the club up for much more pitching success over the course of the year, even if things go amiss for some of the presently installed rotation members. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: justin-morneau1.jpg Early in the season, Justin Morneau looked a lot like he did last year at the plate. That is to say: he was tentative, consistently fooled by good breaking balls, and generally ineffective. At the end of April, he informed the team that his wrist had been ailing him for the better part of two weeks. He sat out a few days, then ended up on the disabled list, returning on May 16th. It would seem that the rest did him some good. Since coming back from the DL, Morneau has looked very much like his old self, and not just because he's once again playing first base on a regular basis after serving mostly as DH in the first month. He's locked in at the plate and crushing the ball in a way we haven't seen for almost two years. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After going 3-for-5 with two homers and a double in Thursday night's loss to the White Sox, Morneau is hitting .290/.343/.742 with four homers, two doubles and 12 RBI in eight games. His eight total home runs put him on pace for 30 on the year despite the missed time. And while his plate approach was shaky earlier in the season, his recent at-bats have been marked by far more patience. It may be too early to declare that the vintage Morneau is officially "back." After all, he's still hitting only .248 on the season and we're talking about a 10-day stretch of improvement. But here's one thing I look at as a supremely positive sign: the first baseman's mammoth home run off of Will Ohman in the seventh inning on Wednesday. Now, Ohman isn't one of the top relievers in the league by any stretch, but he's been awfully good at shutting down left-handed hitters over the course of his career. And Morneau, well, he ain't been so good against southpaws lately. Last year he posted a meager .159/.183/.217 line against lefties and this year he'd been even worse, with a .059 batting average and 11-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 34 plate appearances. But Morneau absolutely obliterated an offering from Ohman, driving it an estimated 451 feet to straightaway center. According to ESPN's Stats and Info department, it was the longest home run hit by a left-handed batter against a left-handed pitcher this year. One at-bat can't prove anything. But it sure can make a statement. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: cain.jpg The Big Picture San Francisco leads Los Angeles by a game and a half for the NL West lead. As is typically the case, the G-Men have excelled on the mound, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA, while struggling on offense, ranking 11th in runs per game. The Dodgers have proven pesky and the Diamondbacks – currently six games back – are always a threat to make a late-season run (last year they went 45-25 after the break), so one would have to think the Giants are very interested in making a move. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why They'll Trade With the Twins Although they're very strong at the top of the rotation with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants may look to boost the bottom half, where an untrustworthy Barry Zito and a suddenly hittable Tim Lincecum lurk. Would Brian Sabean consider bringing back the pitcher he traded away as a prospect almost a decade ago? Francisco Liriano would certainly provide an edge, but it's hard to see the team replacing Zito, who has a 3.75 ERA, or Lincecum, who is Lincecum. The Twins player that really might interest the Giants is Josh Willingham. He's said to be available, though only at an exorbitant price. Ken Rosenthal, who offered up the previous tidbit about Willingham, has also noted that the Giants have a clear need for a right-handed hitting outfielder. Would they part with a top prospect or two knowing that they'd have Willingham for two more years at a good price? I don't believe the Twins are very interested in dealing the Hammer, but I'd bet money that if they end up moving him it's because Sabean knocked them off their heels with an offer. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Two words: A.J. Pierzynski. The last time Sabean shipped prospects to Terry Ryan for an established player, it bit him. Hard. Conclusion The Giants don't seem like a viable destination for the Twins' top trade chip in Liriano, but they look like a prime landing spot for Willingham. That's true of Denard Span also, though to a lesser extent since they have a couple similar players in Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco. Read on to find a few players the Twins might ask about if the Giants come calling for an outfielder. ~~~ POTENTIAL TRADE CANDIDATES Nate Schierholtz - OF The 28-year-old outfielder recently suggested that he'd welcome a trade, as he feels underutilized. With a career .723 OPS, he's nothing special, but he's competent enough and could serve as a placeholder if the Twins deal Span or Willingham. Joe Panik - SS A middle infielder with a stick. Something the Twins could use. After putting up an .868 OPS as a 20-year-old in Low-A last year, he's come back to earth a bit (.265/.347/.374) but his 43/47 K/BB ratio is exciting. Kyle Crick - RHP Ryan has put a clear emphasis on young pitchers with upside, and Crick fits that bill extremely well. He's a big 6'4" right-hander who throws four quality pitches, racking up lots of strikeouts and lots of walks. He's also got a 2.75 ERA in Single-A as a 19-year-old. Clayton Blackburn - RHP Because who doesn't want another Blackburn in the organization? Oh, and this one is actually really good: 2.82 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 99/13 K/BB in 89 innings at Single-A as a 19-year-old. Another high-ceiling teenager. Click here to view the article

Most Twins fans will recall that Torii Hunter was a vital part of Minnesota's turnaround and success in the 2000s, from his breakout season in '01 through his departure in '07. It's a little tougher to remember the beginning of Hunter's major-league career, which was far less glamorous. After drawing a handful of appearances with the Twins in 1997 and '98, Hunter made the full-time leap as a 22-year-old in 1999. During his first two seasons, he hit .267/.313/.393 with 14 homers in 234 games. He was demoted back to Triple-A in his second year. He looked overwhelmed. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hunter rebounded after returning from his demotion in 2000, raising his OPS from .543 in late July to .726 at season's end. Since then, he has never finished with a mark below .762. He's been above .800 nine times (so far) and appeared in five All-Star games (so far). In other words, Aaron Hicks shouldn't get too dispirited over his rocky big-league debut in 2013. To be fair, Hicks' numbers (.192/.259/.338) are much uglier than Hunter's during his initial rough patch. However, Hunter was playing in a stronger offensive environment, so in context the difference is not as vast as it might appear (Hunter's OPS+ was 76; Hicks finished last year at 65). Both Hunter and Hicks entered the majors as athletic young center fielders with great promise. Both exhibited the type of tentative plate approach and proneness to mistakes that are typical of inexperienced rookies. So Hunter's ability to endure and put together a hell of a career should serve as an inspiration for Hicks and a placation for disenchanted fans. Download attachment: hicks.jpg Then again, while the situations are similar in a general sense, there are certainly more red flags in the case of Hicks. Whereas Hunter was a visibly raw specimen who had struggled at times with controlling the strike zone in the minors, Hicks was touted as a polished product. But during his initial stint in the majors, his plate discipline -- a calling card throughout the minors -- was nowhere to be found. The rookie struck out at a much higher rate last year than Hunter has at any point in his career. In addition, Hicks did not respond as well (or at least as immediately) to his demotion. When Hunter was sent down in 2000 following a poor start to his sophomore campaign, he absolutely raked in Triple-A, putting up a 1.130 OPS in 55 games to earn a recall. He hit far better in the second half with the Twins and the rest is history. Hicks didn't experience the same kind of success following his demotion last year. He went to Rochester, hit .222/.317/.333 in 22 games, was not recalled in September and then skipped winter ball. It was about as bad a season as one could possibly imagine, and it left a sour aftertaste. But the bottom line with Hunter, and countless other players, is that early struggles at the highest level are hardly a death knell. That's especially true when you're talking about a 23-year-old who skipped Triple-A on his way to the bigs, as Hicks did. Patience is key. Yet the Twins can't and won't exercise endless patience. By this time next year, Byron Buxton may already be entrenched as the long-term center fielder, and there are plenty of emerging contenders to fill the corner spots. If Hicks is unable to bounce back quickly and reestablish himself as an organizational fixture, he could easily be passed up by other outfielders in a crowded system. That will make him one of the most intriguing players to keep an eye on in the early part of the 2014 season. Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Ticket King [/hr]The forecast for the next few days calls for highs in the 80s and 90s, with a lot of sun. Hot days will give way to warm nights while sunlight glows well past suppertime. Sorry for waxing poetic, but… July in Minnesota. There's hardly anything better. Remember when going to catch a ballgame meant filing into a stuffy Dome and missing out on these glorious summer nights? It wasn't so long ago. Weeks like this are what Target Field was built for. There is an added level of baseball drama -- that being the team's desperate need to embark on a "miraculous run." Getting swept by the last-place Rays was a disastrous start to a crucially important homestand. Now, the reeling Twins need to damn near win out in the next two series to avoid being irrelevant at the trade deadline. Here's what Terry Ryan said at the start of the season: Unless they start winning fast, the Twins are going to fall short of that relatively modest goal. There's really no margin for error left after this past weekend. They're going to have their work cut out for them. Here Come the Indians Download attachment: kluber.jpg This team is hot. Cleveland hasn't lost a series since June, and just took three of four from the Tigers in Detroit to move within 5 1/2 games of first place. The Indians' success has been driven, in large part, by intriguing young arms, and we'll see a few on display at Target Field this week. The Twins will counter with… well, that's not 100 percent clear. Let's take a look at the match-ups and see which game might be the best ticket during a hot summer week at Target Field. Monday, 7:10 PM: T.J. House vs. Kris Johnson Forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 93 The bad news is that Johnson hasn't looked very good in either of his two starts for the Twins; he failed to complete five innings in both. The good news is that the rookie House hasn't been great either -- especially on the road where he's 0-2 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. If the Twins can get a decent outing from Johnson, who had a 2.75 ERA in Triple-A before being called up, they'll stand a good chance of coming away with a win in the series opener. Search for seats in the shade because the sun will likely be hot in the early innings. Tuesday, 7:10 PM: Danny Salazar vs. ??? Forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 84 Salazar has an electric arm, and he racks up tons of strikeouts but is susceptible to the long ball. He was sent to the minors in May with a 5.53 ERA, but he's making his return now after a strong run at Triple-A. If the Twins have announced anywhere who they plan to have starting on Tuesday night, I haven't seen it. It might be Yohan Pino, who's been decent enough in his last couple starts in the majors and is on track after pitching in Triple-A Thursday, but he issued seven walks in that outing. Yuck. Trevor May pitched on Saturday, so he'd be on short rest, but he was removed from that start after three innings and 47 pitches. Hmm... It would be something if May gets the nod. "No pressure kid, we just really, really need to win. Like, really bad." Wednesday, 12:10 PM: Trevor Bauer vs. Kyle Gibson Forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 80 This is the stand-out pitching match-up, from my view. Bauer is the uber-talented young right-hander that Cleveland acquired in the Shin-Soo Choo deal. He has looked good in 13 starts, turning in a 3.89 ERA and 75-to-28 K/BB ratio over 78 innings. Gibson has, of course, been very hot-and-cold, alternating between clunkers and gems. He has faced the Tribe twice this year and has allowed only one run total in 12 innings. This should be a good tilt on what figures to be a beautiful Wednesday afternoon, and is my choice for best ticket of the series, though you might need to play hooky from work to attend. [/hr]If you want to cheer on the Twins and enjoy some great weather at Target Field, you'll have the opportunity to do so at a pretty reasonable price this week. Monday's game has plenty of tickets available for under 10 bucks. On Tuesday I see some tickets for $16 in the Home Run Porch, which might be a cool spot to sit with the homer-prone Salazar on the hill. And if you can make it out to the day game on Wednesday, there are some good deals available for lower-deck seats. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket broker, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: sdrew.jpg At a glance, one would think that Minnesota's power output this year was well above the norm. Josh Willingham launched 35 bombs and fellow newcomer Ryan Doumit chipped in 18. Trevor Plouffe's 24 were a pleasant surprise, as were Justin Morneau's 19. Even Joe Mauer delivered 10 long balls – just his third time reaching double digits. Despite all of those big power performances, the Twins tied with the Royals for fewest home runs in the American League. While 131 was an improvement over last year's league-worst total of 103, they remained one of the game's least threatening lineups. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The problem is that beyond those aforementioned standout slugging performances, the roster produced no pop. Combined, all other Twins hitters managed 25 homers in 3,390 plate appearances, or one every 136. It's hard to believe that Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, Morneau and Mauer will all repeat their power numbers from this season, so finding players with a bit of muscle to round out the roster ought to be a goal for Terry Ryan this winter, unless he wants his club to sink back toward 2011's dismal homer total. Mauer's unlikely to be a major power threat and Ben Revere will almost surely be starting somewhere in the outfield, so the best approach might be to work around those two spots and maybe try something unconventional. How about a little power from the shortstop position? Yunel Escobar offers a little – he's gone deep 20 times over the past two years – and might be available in a trade. Otherwise, there's Stephen Drew on the free agent market; he will probably have to take a small deal after back-to-back ugly seasons but posted double-digit homer totals in four straight seasons prior, including 21 in 2008. What about second base? The Twins got only one home run from the position in the entire 2012 season. Would Ryan be interested in pursuing a player like Kelly Johnson, who strikes out a ton and weakens your infield defense but has hit 63 home runs over the past three years? Bringing in some backups with the potential to go deep off the bench would also help. There will be several guys in free agency that would fit in that kind of role. Eric Chavez hit 16 homers this year for the Yankees and could platoon with – or challenge – Plouffe. Lefty masher Jonny Gomes would be a nice DH complement to Doumit, who is much better against righties. Scott Hairston is a prolific home run hitter and probably won't cost much. There are a number of different ways to attack this issue, but what's important is that the Twins acknowledge and address it. I hope they won't let strong performances from a few players cause them to overlook what is, undoubtedly, a problematic lack of power across the roster. Click here to view the article

Over the past two weeks, we've gradually laid out our selections for the Twins organization's top ten prospects. Each day, we took an in-depth look at a different rising star within the system, outlining their strengths and weaknesses while spelling out what each must do to succeed in the majors. Here's how our list came together: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 10. Max Kepler, OF 9. Trevor May, RHP 8. J.O. Berrios, RHP 7. Eddie Rosario, 2B 6. Kyle Gibson, RHP 5. Alex Meyer, RHP 4. Oswaldo Arcia, OF 3. Aaron Hicks, OF 2. Byron Buxton, OF 1. Miguel Sano, 3B It's a truly impressive group, and the Twins deserve immense credit for bringing all this talent together. It says something about the quality of their system that Trevor May, who was ranked by Baseball America a year ago as the No. 1 prospect in the Phillies organization, is all the way down at No. 9 despite a non-disastrous 2012. He and pretty much anyone else on this list would've had a shot at the top ranking if this were 4-5 years ago, when the farm was going through a bit of a drought. Those lean years took their toll and amplified the big-league club's challenges, with almost nothing in the way of legitimate MLB-ready talent available during the past two seasons. But this current group, which was named recently by ESPN.com's prospect wonk Keith Law as the second-best in baseball, offers promise that the Twins could be approaching another run like the one beginning in 2001, where the system churns out impact players in consistent waves. At a glance, there is balance between pitchers and position players on this top ten list (four vs. six) but there's clearly more security on the position player side. Many of these guys are human toolboxes who have demonstrated enough skill that it would be surprising if they fizzled out completely. There's certainly a noticeable concentration of outfielders – in fact it's possible all six could end up there – but as long as they stay on track that's not the worst problem to have because the Twins can flip them to fill other areas of need. And of course, Miguel Sano is universally viewed as the organization's best prospect since Joe Mauer was in the minors. On the pitching side, the risk/upside dynamic is in play to a much greater extent. Alex Meyer stakes a claim as the organization's best prospective arm after being acquired in the Denard Span trade, but he hasn't pitched above Single-A and his mechanics raise questions about durability. Kyle Gibson is coming off Tommy John, J.O. Berrios is 18 and May has been an erratic mess at times. The Twins are counting on this group to fill at least a couple rotation spots long-term, but a few bad outcomes (Meyer ends up in the bullpen, Berrios hits a wall against tougher competition, May never cuts down his walk rate, etc.) could have them perpetually scrambling to supplement their burgeoning offense with a competent rotation. The Twins have never paid for high-end free agent pitching and, as Terry Ryan has pointed out many times, it's extremely tough to pry good arms from other organizations unless they're in the low minors. Fortunately, the upside with the pitchers on the list is strong enough to outweigh concerns at this point. These are all very legitimate prospects, and if just a couple of them reach their potential the Twins will have found anchors who can front the rotation at a low cost for years. The 2013 season is likely to be a tough one on the field for the major-league club, as the organization has clearly set its sights on the future and didn't show much interest in building a stable bridge to get there. But the great thing about baseball is that fans will have plenty of opportunities to follow these prospects and watch the future come into focus. Minor-league box scores readily available, Cedar Rapids (where Buxton, Berrios and Kepler are likely to play) is just a four-hour drive from the Twin Cities, and of course we'll be regularly updating you on on all of these players and more throughout the season here at Twins Daily. ~~ By the way, you can read about these 10 – and about 150 others – in Seth's 2013 Prospect Handbook. It's an indispensable resource for anyone who digs this kind of stuff. View full article

There's a saying that goes: one man's persisting and possibly career-ending concussion aftermath is another man's opportunity. Something like that, anyway. Up to this point, things have gone smoothly for Justin Morneau, who has been able to get through all his workouts and delivered an RBI single in the Twins' Grapefruit League opener on Saturday. But the first baseman acknowledged recently that post-concussion symptoms continued to haunt him throughout the offseason, and that if they return he's probably going to have to hang up the spikes. Those would be some pretty big spikes to fill. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Morneau has been a godsend for the Twins, largely because he's the type of player that this organization has struggled to produce: a truly elite slugger. He drove in 100 or more runs every year from 2006 to 2009, becoming the first Twin ever to reach triple digits in four consecutive seasons. His ability to hit for both average and power made him one of the most feared and respected batsmen in the league. That's exactly the kind of player you want at first base. If Morneau can't return to that level, there's no one in the short-term picture who can even come close to replacing the production he offered when healthy. In fact, it's not clear that the Twins could even find a competent bat to stick at first base if Morneau's brain injury forced him out. The organization's best hopes at this point lie with Chris Parmelee. If he can keep doing what he's been doing since the midway point last year, he offers optimism that the Twins could get by without Morneau's mighty bat at first base. Parmelee's first four seasons in Minnesota's system after being drafted 20th overall in 2006 were largely underwhelming. He moved very gradually up the minor-league ladder, battled injuries and posted solid yet unspectacular numbers as a slow-footed first baseman and corner outfielder. Last year, at the age of 23, Parmelee turned a corner. His overall numbers at New Britain – .287/.366/.436 with 13 homers – were very much in line with his past production. Yet, hidden in those numbers were some very promising signs. Download attachment: parmelee.jpg For one thing, he finally stayed healthy all year, appearing in a career-high 142 games over five months with the Rock Cats before playing in another 21 after a September promotion to Minnesota. Parmelee also got stronger as the season went along. After hitting .283 with five home runs between April, May and June, he hit .305 with six homers and 26 RBI in July, then hit .302 with a pair of dingers in August before heading north and hitting .355 with four homers for the Twins in September. It's great to see Parmelee hitting for average, considering that he hit just .250 over his first four years as a pro, and it's especially encouraging to see him hitting the ball out of the yard more frequently. In the end, his ability to hit for power will largely dictate his overall value. No one expects Parmelee to develop into the type of dominant slugger that Morneau has been for the Twins. But if his recent improvement is legitimate, and he can become 20-homer type with a solid average and walk rate, the thought of losing Morneau becomes considerably less traumatizing. Parmelee's two-run homer in yesterday's exhibition game is a promising sign that his new-found power is here to stay. I'll be looking for more of that as the spring progresses. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: rosariocats.jpg Despite being perpetually trapped in the shadows of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano within the Twins' system, Eddie Rosario had firmly established himself as a true upper-tier prospect by the end of the 2013 season. At the age of 21, he had cruised through Single-A and Double-A, batting .302/.350/.460 between the two levels all while working on the defensive transition from outfield to infield. His bat was so good, and his athleticism so outstanding, that it appeared he may have a chance to make an early impact for the Twins here in 2014. My, how things change. As we all know, Rosario was tagged with a 50-game drug suspension during the offseason, costing him a crucial chunk of development time just as he was preparing to graduate to the highest level of the minors. He was a no-show at spring camp while dealing with "personal issues." And as the season got underway, with Rosario completely out of the picture, Brian Dozier turned his hold on second base into a tight grip, emerging as one of the better players in the majors at the position. So when Rosario finally returned from his ban late in May, he returned to a dramatically different set of circumstances from the ones that prompted the Twins to experimentally try to switch him from center field to second base a couple seasons ago in an effort to more quickly move his bat up to the majors. Back then, center field was overloaded and second base was a position with no clear future. My, how things change. The embattled Rosario started playing games again at the end of May, opening in Ft. Myers where he got back up to speed with a quick eight-game stint before heading back to New Britain. He's played a bit of second base, but is back to playing mostly in center, where there is now a huge hole in Minnesota. And while the Twins have plenty of quality arms available in the high minors to supplement their pitching staff, they are lacking reinforcements for their scuffling offense at Triple-A. Josmil Pinto and Deibinson Romero are really the only intriguing bats at Rochester, and Pinto will likely remain there indefinitely to work on his defensive game. With the Kendrys Morales signing, the Twins made a loud statement that they are in "win-now" mode, with more of their decisions being driven by a desire to improve the current club. If offense continues to be an issue and they find themselves needing a boost later in the summer -- particularly in center field -- they may find that Rosario is in fact their best option. My, how things change. He needs to demonstrate complete mastery of the Double-A level -- and perhaps even the Triple-A level -- before the Twins would consider bringing him up, but Rosario is one of the most dynamic hitters in the organization and could provide a critical infusion into the lineup in the second half. As far as his stock has fallen in the past eight months or so, he'd be able to revive it substantially by coming up and making a positive impact for a Twins team that is trying to compete in a weak division. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: glen-perkins.jpg Ron Gardenhire told reporters over the weekend that he would have "no problem" with Glen Perkins assuming closer duties for his club moving forward. Well, you'd hope not. Since Matt Capps was officially placed on the disabled list on July 17, Perkins has received the lion's share of save chances, converting all seven of his opportunities while registering a 1.74 ERA and holding opponents to a .136 batting average. In 20 2/3 innings during that span, he has posted a stellar 19-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Perkins has backed up his breakout 2011 campaign by posting nearly identical numbers here in 2012. Last year, in 61 2/3 innings, he allowed 17 earned runs (2.48 ERA) on 55 hits while striking out 65 and walking 21. This year, in 60 1/3 innings, he has allowed 17 earned runs (2.54 ERA) on 52 hits while striking out 66 and walking 15. Eerily similar. With that consistency, the lefty has established himself as one of the league's best relievers, and if there truly is some mystical mental trait required to successfully pitch in the ninth inning, he's got it. He has "closer" written all over him. That's great news for the Twins, especially from a financial standpoint. Back in March, they signed Perkins to a three-year, $10.3 million extension with a team option, so they control his rights through 2016. Here's how his salaries would reflect on payroll compared to other designated closers over the past six years: [TABLE] Year Closer Cost 2007 Joe Nathan $5.25M 2008 Joe Nathan $6M 2009 Joe Nathan $11.25M 2010 Jon Rauch & Matt Capps ~$4M + Wilson Ramos 2011 Joe Nathan & Matt Capps $18.4M 2012 Matt Capps $4.75M 2013 Glen Perkins $2.5M 2014 Glen Perkins $3.75M 2015 Glen Perkins $3.75M 2016 Glen Perkins $4.5M [/TABLE] Clearly, the Twins place a premium on the value of the closer role and they've paid handsomely for reliability there over the years. So the idea of Perkins locking up that spot over the next few seasons is exciting. It should be noted that, in his case, the above numbers are slight underestimates (he has performance bonuses built into his contract for games finished that haven't been made public), but nevertheless he'll be the most inexpensive ninth-inning man the Twins have employed for many years. This is as it should be. There's certainly no guarantee that the Twins will be competitive next year, and it makes no sense for a non-competitive team to spend big money for someone to close out wins. The funds saved on a closer can be redirected toward strengthening the bullpen's overall depth (they'll need a new "relief ace" type to fill Perkins' previous role – no small matter) and supplementing other areas of the ballclub. I think it's safe to say nobody has a problem with Perkins taking that closer role and running with it for the next several years. Click here to view the article

Another ugly season is in the rearview mirror, so now we can finally turn our focus to the only question that has really been relevant since the team faded out of contention in June or July: How do we fix this thing? Fortunately, Twins Daily is ready to provide you with all the information you'll need entering this pivotal winter with the latest in our acclaimed line of annual e-books, the 2014 Offseason Handbook. As always, this graphically rich PDF will put you in the shoes of the Twins' general manager, offering up a comprehensive and entertaining portrayal of the offseason landscape.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Inside, you will find payroll analysis, available free agents at every position, trade candidates, organizational depth breakdowns, arbitration scenarios and much more; with all these details at hand, it's up to you to decide the best approach for getting the franchise back on track within realistic parameters. Download attachment: 2014-handbook-cover.jpg Also included in the Handbook is a 30+ minute interview with general manager Terry Ryan, exploring the organization's outlook on many offseason topics. If you order now, you can lock up your copy of the 2014 Offseason Handbook for just $6.95. Now available for immediate delivery! Now that the offseason has arrived, Twins fans can once again feel a sense of optimism and hope as the club seeks to build toward a brighter future. Just what options will be on the table for Terry Ryan and Company in the coming months? Order your Offseason Handbook today and find out. Want to see a sample? Take a look at our 2013 Offseason Handbook and read last year's handbook. Click here to view the article

Equipped with an unhealthy obsession with sunflower seeds, Parker Hageman blends statistical analysis, scouting acumen and a dash of wit into his breakdowns. A founding member of the TwinsCentric consortium, Hageman has provided content for the Offseason GM Handbooks, Maple Street Press Twins Annuals (2010 and '11) as we as the Minnesota Twins 2010 Official Team Yearbook. In addition to the TwinsCentric portfolio, he has contributed elsewhere including RotoWorld, Baseball Prospectus Annual 2017, The Hardball Times 2009, '10 and '11 Season Previews, and has been a consulting writer for Inside Edge, a scouting service for baseball teams and media outlets. A graduate of St Cloud State University and current resident of Chanhassen, Hageman lives with his wife, Heather, and their three children who yearn for the off-season so that they can have the TV back. You can follow him on twitter at @ParkerHageman. Click here to view the article

As the Twins put the All-Star Game behind them and gear up for the final 68 games on the schedule, they face much uncertainty. They're only six games below .500 -- a marked improvement from recent years -- and although they trail the Tigers by 10.5 games in the Central, they are within seven games of a wild-card spot. While it's nice to be in a spot where contention is a feasible scenario, we've got to keep in mind that the Twins are still behind seven other AL clubs in the wild-card race and -- more importantly -- they just aren't a great team. Not right now, anyway. As such, the focus needs to be on taking steps to build that great team for next year and beyond. This means auditioning young talents here in the final months, and making decisions on which current players are going to be a part of the long-term picture. Below, we'll take a look at the case for extending the contracts of four different players who deserve consideration for various reasons. Download attachment: deal-or-no-deal.jpg KURT SUZUKI He represented the Twins at Tuesday's All-Star Game, and will almost certainly go down as one of the most successful free agent signings in franchise history. Should the Twins keep him around going forward? Why they should: Suzuki has been very solid offensively. He leads all AL catchers in batting average (.309) and on-base percentage (.365) and his impressive approach at the plate -- signified by a 25/23 K/BB ratio -- makes it easier to believe that his success is legit despite poor numbers over the past four years. Why they shouldn't: A 30-year-old who is enjoying a career season on a one-year deal is typically a guy you try to trade. His .760 OPS has been largely dependent on his ability to hit singles, and that skill hasn't always manifested in the past and probably won't going forward if his current .328 BABIP slinks back toward his career mark of .274. My Take: NO DEAL. I believe that the future of this team at catcher is Josmil Pinto. While Suzuki would be a nice backup to have around, I somehow doubt he'll be interested in being paid like one considering that he made the All-Star team as a starter this season. The Twins did very well to buy low on the backstop during the offseason, but it'd be a mistake to re-up now with his value (perhaps artificially) high. KENDRYS MORALES Download attachment: Kendrys-Morales-Twins.jpg Morales' agent, Scott Boras, told ESPN 1500's Darren Wolfson this week that his client is open to a long-term deal with the Twins, which is unsurprising considering that Boras tried fruitlessly to score a multi-year contract for Morales during the offseason and won't have an easier time doing so this winter if his client's bat doesn't wake up. Why they should: Although Morales has gotten off to a slow start, with an ugly .582 OPS through 33 games, he has a long track record of hitting and would give the Twins a veteran building block in the lineup as they gradually add young talent around him. Plus, given his current situation and his probable aversion to another offseason of frustrating uncertainty, they could perhaps strike a pretty good bargain. Why they shouldn't: Morales is 31 and not in the greatest of shape. His bat looks slow right now, and it's hard to tell how much that's attributable to rust. Since Joe Mauer will be holding down first base for the foreseeable future, Morales would be essentially limited to designated hitter here, and that's a pretty easy spot to fill. My Take: DEAL. I'm probably in the minority on this but I trust Morales to return to his solid-hitting ways and I like the idea of having a proven veteran run producer (who happens to be Latin) at the heart of the order while young international players like Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Kennys Vargas and Jorge Polanco try to find their way. I'd look into a two-year, $15 million extension, or something along those lines. JOSH WILLINGHAM The Twins got an excellent deal on Willingham when they originally signed him before the 2012 season, and his 57 homers since joining the club lead all Minnesota players. He's set to become a free agent after this year; can the Twins afford to lose his slugging skills? Why they should: Willingham's 2013 campaign was ruined by injury, but he has rebounded this season at age 35. Despite missing some time with a wrist injury and batting only .212, the outfielder is on track to finish with an above-average OPS for the eighth time in his nine big-league seasons. His eight homers rank second on the team even though he's been limited to 49 games. Why they shouldn't: Willingham was a slow mover when he got here and his foot speed has only declined due to age and knee problems. The Twins need to get faster in the outfield, and they're also pretty well stocked with outfield prospects. My Take: NO DEAL. Giving a multi-year contract to a guy on the wrong side of 35 is almost always a bad idea, and while he can still crush the ball Willingham has been showing his age in a variety of ways. BRIAN DOZIER Dozier enters the contract extension conversation for very different reasons than the three guys above, who are all on the verge of free agency. Dozier is under control through 2018, so a long-term deal is a matter of cost certainty and perhaps buying out a year or two of his free agency. Why they should: Dozier just keeps getting better, and at a rapid pace. In his breakout 2013 season, he hit 18 homers, stole 14 bases and drew 51 walks; this year, he has already matched or surpassed all of those totals at the All-Star break. He ranks fourth among AL second basemen in OPS (.777) despite a .242 batting average that has been suppressed by a .257 BABIP. The Twins could probably save themselves some money in the long run by getting a deal done very soon. Why they shouldn't: He's already become a great player, and it's just hard to imagine that he's going to be able to keep improving. At age 27, it seems fair to expect that this season and perhaps his next few will be his best, and the Twins have the luxury of getting those pretty cheaply. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to unnecessarily commit to paying him a huge salary in five years at this point, and as one of the best infielders in the game right now Dozier would have the right to command it. My Take: NO DEAL. I just don't see much urgency. I like the idea of Dozier being a lifelong Twin, because he's a hell of a player and also a very likable/marketable guy, but it seems more logical to approach a long-term deal once he has reached his arbitration years. That might cost the Twins a little more, but they won't likely be hurting for cash any time soon. What do you think? Would you extend any of these four? Are there other names (Trevor Plouffe, Kevin Correia, Casey Fien) that you would add to the conversation? Sound off the comments section. Click here to view the article

The Twins truly might have the most talent-laded farm system in all of baseball, so ranking and profiling our selections for the Top 10 prospects over the past couple weeks has been a lot of fun. Today, we'll take a high-level look at that list as a whole and see what it tells us about the future of the franchise, both short-term and long-term. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] First, here's a rundown of the TD Top 10, with links to each story: 10. Trevor May, RHP 9. Lewis Thorpe, LHP 8. Jorge Polanco, 2B 7. Josmil Pinto, C 6. Jose Berrios, RHP 5. Eddie Rosario, 2B 4. Kohl Stewart, RHP 3. Alex Meyer, RHP 2. Miguel Sano, 3B 1. Byron Buxton, OF Arms Race Download attachment: top-prospects-03-alex-meyer.jpg The biggest thing that stands out about this list is the presence of five pitchers, including two in the top four. Last year's list featured four, but they were all ranked fifth or below, so there has clearly been some very positive movement on that front. As anyone who has been following the Twins over the past few years would surely agree, this is profoundly good news. Brace For Impact With the exceptions of Stewart, Berrios, Polanco and Thorpe, every player in our Top 10 is expected to begin the 2014 season in Double-A or above, meaning that six of these high-end prospects will be poised to jump to the majors at any time. A strong start, combined with injuries or struggles at the big-league level, could lead to the expedited arrival of several players on this list. Because of this, the '14 season has a chance to be the most exciting for fans in many years. National Recognition Here's where the members of our Top 10 have been ranked by three of the most respected national outlets for prospect coverage: MLB.com, ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus. Buxton 1 | 1 | 1 Sano 3 | 8 | 14 Meyer 32 | 62 | 32 Stewart 61 | 76 | 54 Rosario 63 | 49 | 60 Berrios 77 | NR | 75 Pinto NR | NR | 56 Polanco NR | NR | NR Thorpe NR | NR | 101 May NR | NR | NR Top Heavy Download attachment: top-prospects-04-kohl-stewart.jpg Each of the organization's top three prospects would probably rank No. 1 for many teams around the league, offering monstrous upside that is not far from being tapped. Buxton and Sano have both been widely hailed as potential MVP contenders while Meyer has all the makings of a frontline starter as long as he can stay healthy. That's not even mentioning Stewart, the top high school pick in last year's draft, whose distance from the majors is the only thing holding him back from elite status. By this time next year, we may be ranking his upside above Meyer's. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: deduno.jpg The second-best pitcher in Minnesota's rotation is a 29-year-old journeyman with five innings of previous major-league experience who has issued 36 walks in 46 innings this season. Obviously, that speaks to how bad the club's starting pitching has been, but it also speaks to the success Sam Deduno has enjoyed in spite of his outrageously bad control. The right-hander has tallied five quality starts in eight turns, and with a little run support on Sunday he would have improved to 5-0 on the season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He's a fascinating pitcher to watch. His erratic tendencies are unparalleled; he's averaging 7.0 BB/9 – among MLB pitchers with 40-plus innings pitched, only the train wreck Jonathan Sanchez has a worse rate and no one else is close. Yet, up to this point Deduno has been able to work around the extreme control issues by limiting damage when the ball is put in play. Five qualifying pitchers in the American League (Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, David Price and Chris Sale) are yielding a lower batting average lower than Deduno's .228. Is this a sustainable recipe for success? Probably not. It's tough to expect anyone to maintain a .250 BABIP, and he's been fortunate to strand as many walks as he has. Then again, a free pass only gives the batter one base, and if you're not allowing the big hits, things generally won't get out of hand. Really, it's the same bend-don't-break philosophy that applies to a successful pitch-to-contact guy like Scott Diamond, though with a very different formula. Deduno is so far on the other end of the spectrum from this organization's typical pitching mold that it's hard to believe he was even given a chance. Typically the Twins have shown a strong preference for strike-throwers, even if it means they're among the most hittable pitchers in the league (Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano are great examples). While he's unbelievably wild, Deduno has been extremely tough to square up, and his minor-league career – where he allowed only 7.6 hits per nine innings on average – suggests that's no fluke. Regardless of what moves the Twins make this offseason, it is a virtual certainty that at least a couple spots at the bottom of the rotation will be up for grabs next spring among a number of borderline pitchers already within the organization. When stacked up against the likes of Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Cole De Vries, Liam Hendriks, P.J. Walters and others, Deduno is far more likely to issue a walk but also far less likely to give up a hit or home run. At the end of the day, that might make him a more effective pitcher. Certainly that has been the case this season. Click here to view the article

Late in Sunday's game against the Rays, the Twins reached their breaking point with Brian Dozier. With the game tied and runners on the corners for Tampa in the 10th inning, the rookie shortstop scooped up a ground ball and took the sure out at first rather than throwing home to cut down the go-ahead run or attempting a tough inning-ending double play. After the game, Ron Gardenhire seemed to let Dozier off the hook: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] And yet, Dozier sat on Monday. He sat again on Tuesday, and after the game it was announced he'd been demoted to Triple-A, with Pedro Florimon (and his .654 OPS in Rochester) coming up to replace him on the roster. It's a perplexing strategy for the Twins. Dozier will almost certainly be back up when rosters expand in September, making this a two-week demotion. How much good can that really do? Download attachment: dozierfields.jpg At the same time, Dozier has been roundly awful for a full three months, so the move is easily justifiable. The only reasons he's lasted this long are because Gardenhire fiercely supports him and because he may be the organization's only hope for an internal solution at shortstop next year. Unfortunately, even those factors couldn't protect him after committing 15 errors (most for any AL shortstop despite the fact that he's only played in 84 games) while hitting .234/.271/.332, including .152/.237/.273 after what appeared to be a breakout three-hit game in Boston on August 2nd. Only one qualifying player in the majors (Justin Smoak) has a worse OPS than Dozier. In addition to his league-leading error total, he's had a number of misplays in the field – including Sunday's questionable and costly decision – that don't show up on the stat sheet. His plate discipline, which was a primary strength in the minors, has been dreadful, as he's drawn only 16 walks against 58 strikeouts in 340 plate appearances. Granted, the 25-year-old showed a few positive signs, namely some home run power and base-stealing proclivity, but this was an overwhelmingly discouraging major-league debut. At this point it's extremely difficult to look at him as a realistic starting option for next year. He just doesn't have any substantial strength to fall back on. Being sent to Triple-A after struggling in a major-league stint has been known to help young players in the past – look no further than Chris Parmelee for a recent example – and we can only hope that will happen here. But when you consider that Dozier was given an incredibly long leash, isn't all that young and was never an exceptional prospect to begin with, it's pretty tough to dismiss his initial struggles as a fluke. More than likely, he'll be another suspect among many others vying for a middle infield spot next year. Just another passenger on Minnesota's never-ending shortstop carousel. Click here to view the article

* The Twins' offense has been a very pleasant surprise in the first week of the season. Though it hasn't always been pretty, and sloppy play from opposing defenses in Chicago and Cleveland were undeniable contributors, the Twins have scored 38 runs through their first six games. The biggest story in the lineup is Chris Colabello. He has already piled up 11 RBI in five starts after hitting .349 in spring play. This guy is just sitting dead red. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Colabello has struck out five times in 24 plate appearances (a promising early reduction from last year's sky-high 32 percent K-rate) and he's batting .500 on balls in play. Obviously that's not sustainable, but it speaks to how well he's driving the ball. He's been an unexpected anchor in the Twins' lineup, and right now he's appointment viewing for fans. Colabello feels like the biggest singular reason the Twins are at 3-3 after a season-opening road trip where the weather was crisp but the play often was not. Shaded by all the crazy elements of his journey, Collabello's immense success right off the bat has been energizing for a fan base that was notably subdued at the outset of the season. * Jason Kubel's fast start has been largely overshadowed by the heroics of Colabello, but it's no less encouraging. Kubel has been in the starting lineup for three games, and has delivered multiple hits in each. Sunday's 2-for-4 effort lifted his average to .412. While you can only put so much stock into these things, Kubel showed distinct improvement over the course of spring camp. He was whiffing constantly in the early games, but by the later weeks was connecting with frequency. I remember being struck by Ron Gardenhire's answer to a question about Kubel after a Grapefruit League game in Ft. Myers. "I worry about some things, I don't worry about Kube," he said. "Kube can hit. He's always been able to hit. If he just goes out and gets his swinging in and gets comfortable, the guy can light it up, I know that. He's healthy, I know he can hit." It was a particularly matter-of-fact response about a player who was designated for assignment by one team and benched by another during a challenging 2013, but Gardy echoes Kubel's assertion that a lingering quad injury was primarily responsible for those struggles. If that proves to be the case, he could turn out to be quite a find, because Kubel was an above-average hitter (by OPS+) for six straight seasons prior to last year. Gardenhire has done a good job of playing match-ups and deploying the righty-masher strategically so far, but that essentially goes out the window now that Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia are both batting sore wrists. For the time being, it appears that Kubel will be a regular in the outfield. Hopefully the manager's confidence continues to be rewarded. Download attachment: kubelhigh5.jpg Photo by David Banks, USA TODAY Sports * While these early games have been marked by a refreshing uptick in offense, it's been the same old story for the pitching staff. After leading the majors in hits allowed in 2013, the Twins have allowed double-digit knocks in each of their first six contests. The first turn through the rotation produced one quality start, from (who else?) Kevin Correia. On Sunday, Ricky Nolasco delivered his second straight clunky outing -- an inauspicious debut for the prized offseason acquisition. Nolasco throws a lot of breaking stuff, and in his first two starts we've seen too many flat pitches and floaters. But at the same time, this is a guy who's pitched in southern Florida for the last eight years, and is now trying to spin all kinds of pitches in the chill of the springtime Midwest. I suspect that as the weather heats up, so too will Nolasco. The rotation could use a stabilizing force. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: blackburn.jpg It took almost six hours, but the Twins were able to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Brewers on Sunday. To do so, they needed to overcome another non-quality start from Nick Blackburn, who yielded four runs over six innings in what sadly qualifies as one of his best outings this season. The right-hander's results weren't bad until Corey Hart took him deep for a three-run homer with two outs in the fifth, but he had been dancing on a tight rope all day. Milwaukee put runners in scoring position in each of the first four innings only to come away with one run; indeed, Hart's back-breaker seemed inevitable. It was a typically ineffective effort from Blackburn, who has turned in only one quality start in 10 outings this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Granted, this isn't necessarily an earth-shattering development. We've seen him struggle before. But in past instances, his periods of turmoil have directly coincided with arm ailments, as his two worst seasons have both been followed by surgeries. This year, Blackburn's health did not seem to be in question while he cruised through spring training with a 2.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 17 innings, but his performance since the start of April has been inexplicably dreadful and hardly reminiscent of his glory days. In 2008 and 2009, Blackburn was a valuable starter – an inexpensive, above-average innings-eater. During that period, he made up for high hit rates by commanding the zone and hitting his spots relentlessly, averaging around a walk per game. This season, he has issued multiple walks in seven of his 10 starts and thrown a career-low 60 percent of his pitches for strikes. Blackburn routinely ranks as one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and that's certainly been true this year; his opponents' batting average of .329 is nearly 20 points higher than any qualifying starter. A guy like that simply can't survive with mediocre command, and that's where he's at right now. We're not seeing many signs that it's ready to turn around, either. Unfortunately, the Twins have little choice but to stick with him at this point. With Carl Pavano and P.J. Walters both on the disabled list, the club is already short on starters. Beyond that, they have a vested interest in letting Blackburn work through these issues and try to recapture the form that made him effective in the past. Like it or not, he's under contract next year for $5.5 million, and if the Twins are going to swallow that money and cut bait they'd better be completely certain he doesn't have it in him any more to produce the way he did in his early years. I'm not ready to jump to that conclusion yet, and neither are they I'm sure. But the team's patience can't last forever. Especially with a guy who hasn't been able to put together a full season since 2009. Click here to view the article

Things are pretty bleak for Twins fans these days. The club is caught amidst yet another mid-summer free-fall, the coaches and medical staff are once again coming under fire for their handling of injuries, and we're left to ponder who can be called up from Triple-A to plug yet another rotation hole while the offense scuffles. The negative storylines are too easy to grasp onto at this point, so in an effort to change the tone a bit, I thought I'd focus on a few positive developments that are currently taking place within the organization. Times are tough, but there are some very good and very meaningful things happening outside of the general misery that has characterized Twins Baseball lately. Let's dig into a few: 1) Top draft pick Nick Gordon is killing the ball at Elizabethton. It was a bit of a surprise when the Twins announced that they'd be sending Gordon -- freshly added out of high school with the fifth overall pick in the draft -- to advanced rookie ball in Elizabethton rather than the Gulf Coast League, where nearly all prep players start their careers. The club clearly had confidence in Gordon and so far that has proven to be more than justified, as the shortstop is off to a red-hot start at a level where most players are older and more experienced. Through his first 16 games, he's hitting .362 with two doubles, two triples, a homer and four steals. The strong debut puts Gordon on track to join a growing group of upper-echelon prospects within the Twins' system. 2) Jorge Polanco has been on fire since his surprising MLB stint. After joining the Twins a couple weeks ago as an emergency call-up, Polanco was quickly returned to his previous home in Ft. Myers, where he has been playing as though he'd like to get back to Minnesota in a hurry. In seven games since rejoining the Miracle, Polanco is hitting .367 with three doubles and two triples in 33 plate appearances. At this rate, it's hard to imagine he'll remain in Single-A for too much longer, even though he's one of the youngest players in the Florida State League. 3) Fast-rising J.O. Berrios is now in Double-A. If you've been regularly following the minor-league reports here on Twins Daily, then you know that Berrios has been on fire for months now, consistently turning in spectacular outings in which he's blowing away opposing hitters. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in a start since May 1st and his strikeout rate has been off the charts. This week, the Twins finally decided to show some mercy to FSL batters by promoting Berrios to Class-AA New Britain. The righty just turned 20 in late May, so he'll become the youngest player to appear in the Eastern League this year by a fairly wide margin. What Berrios is doing right now -- especially as an undersized specimen at a skinny six foot zero -- is remarkable. It will be interesting to see how he adapts in Double-A, but if he falters a bit, it's important to keep in mind the context of his situation. 4) Free agent success stories. There's understandably a lot of talk right now about Ricky Nolasco; the team's biggest free agent splash ever has thus far proven to be a poor investment. Nolasco follows in the footsteps of fellow free agent signing Mike Pelfrey, who also performed horribly for a stretch before admitting that he'd been bothered by an elbow injury. Very frustrating. But at the other end of the spectrum, the Twins have had two smashing successes in the free agent arena this year, and that's something that has been very rare for this franchise (in large part because they've been so unwilling to spend). Download attachment: hughes2.jpg Phil Hughes has been one of the American League's better starters, with a league-leading 9.27 K:BB ratio. He's 27 and locked up for the next two seasons at a very reasonable price. You'd have a hard time finding a contract signed during the past offseason that looks better than his right now. Then there's Kurt Suzuki, who has been a revelation on a one-year, $2.75 million deal. With Josmil Pinto needing more seasoning in the minors, Suzuki has been just what the doctor ordered, holding his own both defensively and offensively. He was recently named as one of Minnesota's two All-Star representatives. Suzuki's shockingly strong performance is especially satisfying in light of the fact that John Buck -- who the Twins were reportedly "extremely close" to signing before they ended up going with Suzuki -- was just designated for assignment by the Mariners. 5) Chris Colabello is back at it. Easily one of the best parts of April was Colabello's monstrous performance out of the gates. A great guy and a great story, the well-traveled slugger was also an epic producer during the early weeks of the season, coming through with clutch hit after clutch hit (including a home run while his mother was interviewed on live TV). Watching Colabello fall into a tailspin in May was tough, but after spending some time in Triple-A he's back up with the Twins and once again hitting the ball with plenty of authority. He's only had 16 plate appearances since his return, but has already smashed two doubles and two homers. Will pitchers readjust? Perhaps. But for now, Colabello is once again giving us a tremendous individual story to root for while the team as a whole fades out of relevance. [/hr]Here's another happy note: Since the Twins beat the Mariners last night, you can get half off your L or XL pizza on Wednesday by ordering online at PapaJohns.com with the promo code 'TWINSWIN'! 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Download attachment: lirianosulk.jpg It would be nice if the Twins kept up their recent winning pace through late July, climbing back into the AL Central picture after being left for dead in May. Unfortunately, their lack of starting pitching makes that difficult to realistically envision. In the more likely event that the Twins are firmly out of contention when the trade deadline rolls around, they'll find themselves in an unfamiliar position.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Only once in the past decade has the club behaved as a seller at the deadline; in 2007, seven games out in the AL Central, they traded Luis Castillo and his remaining salary to the Mets for two prospects. Even then they were confident that the heir apparent Alexi Casilla could step in and replace Castillo's modest production. If the Twins' current 8.5-game deficit in the standings hasn't shrunk significantly within a month, most would agree that it will be time to see what kind of value they can get for their movable assets. But who should they be looking to deal? The most obvious candidates are the guys in the final years of their contracts – such as Matt Capps, Ryan Doumit and Carl Pavano – but none are likely to make a large impact for a contender so it's doubtful any GM is going to give up much for two months of service. The best the Twins can hope for by trading these players would be payroll relief and a B-prospect. Quality players with team-friendly contracts extending past this year – such as Denard Span and Josh Willingham – may do more to entice bidders, but the stakes are raised. In trading players with long-term value, returning good prospects is a must. Given the organization's spotty track record evaluating players from other teams in recent years, one can't help but worry about that a little. As I look over the roster, I see one player who could become an appealing, fungible trading chip at the deadline: Francisco Liriano. He's almost surely gone after this year, so shipping him out would be a no-brainer in a seller scenario. His current 1-7 record and 6.45 ERA aren't going to blow anyone away but opposing clubs might be more inclined to focus on his numbers since a bullpen demotion in early May: 25 IP, 3.24 ERA, 32-to-13 K/BB, .198 opponents' batting average, zero homers allowed. If the inconsistent lefty can maintain his improved production from the past month over the next month, he may actually become a legitimate commodity as the deadline looms, giving the Twins leverage that they probably won't have with any of the other walk-year players. It's something to root for even if the usual June winning spell comes to an end. Click here to view the article

After finishing the month of April ranked near the bottom of the American League in most categories, the Twins’ offense has undergone a stunning turnaround in May, in which they led the league in scoring through Monday. Prior to Tuesday's loss to the White Sox, the Twins had averaged 6.2 runs per game this month and had crossed the plate five or more times in eight of their past nine games. A sleeping beast awakened, indeed. Can this unit continue to excel and help keep the team hovering around .500?[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That will largely be dependent on how young contributors like Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Brian Dozier and Chris Parmelee progress, but even more so it may be dictated by the two veterans at the heart of the order. Justin Morneau pulled into a tie for sixth place in the American League with four RBI on Monday night, but his high ranking has more to do with opportunity than effectiveness. Morneau has started 35 of the Twins’ 36 games – 32 of them in the cleanup spot – and has routinely batted behind Joe Mauer (.426 OBP) and Josh Willingham (.377 OBP). Entering play Wednesday, Morneau had batted with more runners on base than any player in the majors save Prince Fielder, and while he’s done well in those situations, batting .326 with runners in scoring position (including 7-for-8 with the bases loaded), you also get the sense, based on his track record, that he’s been leaving plenty on the table. Morneau has uncharacteristically been limited to two home runs this season, including just one with runners on base. Although he appears healthy, he is slugging .424, which is 65 points below his career mark. Morneau is on pace for nearly 130 RBI this season even with a mere semblance of his usual power. Imagine what that number could look like if he were flashing more pop. We may actually be starting to see that now, as the 32-year-old has been hitting the ball with increasing authority recently, having tallied five doubles (and not coincidentally 10 RBI) in his past seven games. The man hitting in front of Morneau is another interesting case. After driving in 110 runs last year, Willingham is on pace for 72 this year. Like with Morneau, this can be attributed to decreased power – Willingham hasn’t homered in May and is well off last year’s pace despite a team-leading total of five – but the bigger culprit is a simple lack of hitting. Download attachment: Willingham.jpg It’s not that Willingham has been an offensive liability; he’s contributing to Morneau’s opportunities by getting on base at a .377 clip, thanks to a career-high walk rate. But walks don’t drive in runs and the slugging outfielder is batting just .204. In 39 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, he has collected only six hits. The Twins are relying on these two boppers to provide the brunt of the power in their lineup and produce runs. Morneau is trending up in that department and Willingham, despite his recent slump, has proven more than capable. If the heart of the lineup can start beating more steadily, this offense should be able to keep its rhythm. Click here to view the article