Nick Nelson

Download attachment: nolasco.jpg Despite the acknowledgement of Twins officials that the club has plenty of financial flexibility this offseason, many fans have understandably been reluctant to believe that truly aggressive measures are in the offing. A lack of early activity has only served to magnify that skepticism, but as we've often noted, this isn't at all unusual in the weeks prior to the Winter Meetings, especially in a shifting marketplace. While we haven't seen any bold moves yet, there have been plenty of signs that the Twins are quite serious about taking uncharacteristically splashy steps in order to improve the club. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Through the rumor mill, we have seen the team connected to numerous starting pitchers that rank noticeably higher than the usual low-end targets. In a column for 1500 ESPN this week, Darren Wolfson suggested that based on what he's hearing, Ricky Nolasco is currently atop Terry Ryan's wish list, with Bronson Arroyo right behind him. Neither Nolasco nor Arroyo could be considered one of the true top-tier free agents in this class, but they're both legitimate proven pitchers and they're both coming off very good seasons. Last year the Twins landed Kevin Correia, who was coming off a season in which he got booted from the Pirates rotation, and Mike Pelfrey, who was coming off Tommy John surgery. Needless to say, landing a pitcher or two whose stock is actually up would represent a stark change, and would leave much less room for criticism. That the Twins are seemingly far more interested in wading into the deeper end of the free agent pitcher pool than they have been in the past isn't really surprising considering their continually horrendous results on the mound, but the rumors that continue to linger on the catching front are a bit more noteworthy. The Twins have historically been far more apt to utilize free agency to acquire stopgaps and short-term plugs than impact players and long-term solutions, and in the case of the catcher position, that would really be perfectly understandable this time around. Joe Mauer's position swap does open up a hole at the position, but Josmil Pinto provides a not-too-distant potential internal replacement and Ryan Doumit is still presently in the mix. Nevertheless, the whispers concerning Minnesota's interest in Jarrod Saltalamacchia -- who stands out as the top remaining catcher on the market after Brian McCann signed with the Yankees -- just won't die. Coming off a season in which he posted a career-high .804 OPS at age 28, Salty has the looks of a difference-maker, not a placeholder. The Twins have also been linked to Dioner Navarro, who won't be quite as pricey but is similarly coming off a career year and under the age of 30. There are plenty of serviceable veterans available in free agency, and I fully expected Ryan to focus on acquiring one such player as a temporary fix behind the plate while keeping his attention largely trained on pitching, but the idea that he's actually motivated to bring in a catcher who can upgrade the lineup is both surprising and encouraging. Of course, in the past we have often seen the Twins rumored to have interest in high-profile players early in the free agency period, only to scoff at high price tags and end up with uninspiring acquisitions. Heck, we saw it last year. This has a different feel, though. Never before have the available funds been this copious, and never before has the owner been so vocal in his desire to see money spent on making meaningful improvements. In a recent interview with Adam Platt of Twin Cities Business Magazine, Jim Pohlad made the following comments, which echo some other things we've heard from him over the past few months: Empty rhetoric? Perhaps. It wouldn't be the first time. But there are numerous signals indicating that this organization is feeling a far greater sense of urgency than is typical, and that provides some real reason for hope. Around this time of year, that's something for which to be thankful. Click here to view the article

The first two years of Aaron Hicks' major-league career have been humbling to say the least. He's gone from first-round prep superstar and top prospect to apparent bust; from appointed center fielder and leadoff man to "unprepared" problem child. The skills that have carried Hicks to this point aren't keeping him afloat. But to his credit, the 24-year-old has proven willing to look inward, and is now implementing a drastic change. Hicks announced on Monday that he is giving up switch-hitting, and will bat exclusively from the right side going forward. Download attachment: hicks.jpg Whether going by the eye test or the numbers, it has been obvious for some time that the switch-hitting approach just wasn't working out for Hicks. Ostensibly hitting from both sides is intended to produce a double platoon advantage for a hitter, but Hicks performed worse from the left side than you'd expect from any lefty-against-lefty, or righty-against-righty, or major-leaguer-against-anyone. In 331 plate appearances as a left-handed hitter, Hicks batted .179/.261/.285. In light of those numbers, it's no surprise that the center fielder told his manager he has "no confidence" in the lefty swing that he adopted at a young age. Will this help? It can't hurt. Hicks' problems run deeper than switch-hitting -- his numbers against lefties as a righty aren't that great either -- but he'll now be taking 100 percent of his swings from his natural side. He'll need to adapt to a different look in the majority of his at-bats, and even Ron Gardenhire admitted that this process would ideally play out in the minors, but at least when Hicks makes contact he'll have a better chance of doing something with it. This is a rare step for a major-league player to take. Shane Victorino gave up switch-hitting at age 32 last year, initially because of an injury, but outside of that the list of examples of players implementing such a change has been exceedingly short. A study on the subject conducted by James Gentile of Beyond the Boxscore in 2012 reached the following conclusion: Well, that sounds extremely discouraging, particularly when you consider that Hicks is only 24 years old and in his second big-league season. But the numbers have been bad enough -- and disparate enough from what you'd expect out of his talent -- that desperation is warranted. Hicks needs to be a more confident player. Taking his admittedly inferior swing into 75 percent of his at-bats is not a disadvantage he needed added to his plate. What do you think? Can eliminating the left-handed swing help Hicks straighten out his offensive game? And should the Twins allow him to reinvent himself in the majors or search elsewhere for an interim replacement? Click here to view the article

Last October in this space, I predicted five outcomes that would unfold for the Minnesota Twins in the ensuing offseason. As it turned out, three proved accurate and the other two proved laughably, laughably wrong. As we look ahead to another offseason, which some are painting as one of the most important in franchise history, here's another set of predictions -- some bold, some not -- for what I expect to see in the coming months: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 1) The Twins will make a bid for Masahiro Tanaka but will come up short of the winning post. As a 24-year-old with the ability to become a long-term asset at the top of a rotation, Tanaka seems like a logical fit for the Twins. Given their budget surplus, they are poised to place an aggressive bid on the Japanese star, who appears to be the best pitcher available on the open market this year. However, with new revenues flowing in for all 30 MLB teams, and with a number of large-market big spenders showing interest in Tanaka, I suspect that the posting fee may set a new record (beating Yu Darvish's $51 million) and there's no way I can see Terry Ryan wading into those waters. 2) A veteran catcher will be signed. Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit both suffered concussions during the 2013 season and were held away from catching duties in the final months. It's unclear how either of those two will be handled going forward, and Josmil Pinto looks like a nice young option to step in, but with all the uncertainty going on, the Twins may see a need to add a seasoned defensive specialist to the mix. A veteran with a reputation for working well with pitchers would make a great of sense. 3) Terry Ryan will hand out the largest free agent contract in franchise history. The bar isn't set very high. Josh Willingham's three-year, $21 million deal signed in 2011 currently holds the title, and with costs expected to rise (perhaps dramatically) across the league, that amount probably won't go very far this winter. I'm not saying they're going to be inking any nine-digit commitments, but if the Twins want to add any kind of impact talent they will need to spend at a level that is unprecedented by their own standards. They'll have more than enough money available to do so. 4) Miguel Sano will emerge as the favorite to start 2014 at third base. Download attachment: sanoswing.jpg Presently Sano looks like a long shot to claim a spot on the MLB roster out of spring training next year. He has spent only half a season in Double-A, and the Twins are surely gun shy about aggressive promotions for top prospects after the Aaron Hicks experiment blew up in their faces. Of course, Sano is in another category of talent entirely. He slugged .610 with 35 homers between Single-A and Double-A this season, and people within the organization have raved about his defensive progression as he nearly cut his error total in half from the previous year (42 in 2012, 23 in 2013). Over the course of the offseason, I believe we'll hear more and more buzz surrounding Sano's potential to win a spot in March; at that point, it will be up to the 20-year-old to capitalize. 5) Brian Duensing will be non-tendered. This is a bit of a stretch because Duensing has been an effective pitcher and is well liked by the organization. But he's eligible to go to arbitration for a second time and his salary could rise above $2 million. That's a fair amount to spend on a lefty specialist out of the bullpen and, while the Twins are hardly hurting for cash, they might prefer to save a little by going with cheaper in-house options such as Caleb Thielbar and Pedro Hernandez. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: sano.jpg Prior to the start of every season, I like to go through the Twins organization and rank my Top 10 prospects, offering a glimpse of the farm system's strength and providing my personal take on the hierarchy of the club's best up-and-coming players. Now that the regular seasons of every minor-league affiliate have come to a close, it seems fitting to look back the this year's Top 10 and see how they all fared.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Last year, this was a depressing exercise, as the vast majority of the organization's brightest prospects were plagued by injuries, performance issues, developmental setbacks, or all of the above. This year, you'll find these season recaps (beyond the guys at the back end of the list) to be much, much more positive, which is a big reason that I'm feeling far better about the team's outlook than I was a year ago. ~~~ 10. Brian Dozier, SS AAA: 48 G, .232/.286/.337, 2 HR, 15 R 17 RBI, 3/5 SB MLB: 84 G, .234/.271/.332, 6 HR, 33 R, 33 RBI, 9/11 SB I was reluctant to include Dozier in my Top 10, as I wasn't blown away by his skills or by his solid numbers as a 24-year-old in Single-A and Double-A last year, but I plugged him at No. 10 largely because the Twins seemed so dang high on him. It looks like that was a mistake. After an ordinary start at Triple-A, the shortstop was surprisingly called up to the majors, where he played horribly for three months before being demoted back to Rochester and limping through the final weeks. It's too soon to pass judgment after just half a season in the big leagues, but at the end of the day, Dozier is an unheralded 25-year-old who has posted a 138-to-58 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 210 games above Single-A despite the fact that plate discipline was supposedly one of his principal strengths. It was a disastrous season, and at this point he shouldn't be considered a realistic part of the club's future plans. 9. Alex Wimmers, SP AA: 4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 4.15 ERA, 3/2 K/BB, 1.85 WHIP Like Dozier, Wimmers had a rough season, although in this case health was the entire story. After shaking off extreme control issues and showing some promise late in the 2011 campaign, the former first-round pick made only one start in New Britain, rehabbed for a couple months, came back and tried to make one start in rookie ball (he lasted only six batters) and that was it. He underwent Tommy John surgery in August and won't be back in the picture until 2014. Yet another unfortunate break for the Twins' minor-league pitching corps. 8. Adrian Salcedo, SP A+: 25.1 IP, 6.39 ERA, 14/15 K/BB, 1.90 WHIP Salcedo also had his season ruined by injuries. He suffered a broken nose when he was hit by a comebacker in May, and went on to battle arm problems for the remainder of the season, limiting him to just 30 innings between Ft. Myers and the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Ultimately, it goes down as a lost season of development for the right-hander, who didn't throw a competitive pitch after July 11. On the bright side, he's still only 21 so there's plenty of time to bounce back. 7. Oswaldo Arcia, OF A+: 55 G, .309/.376/.517, 7 HR, 22 R, 31 RBI, 4/9 SB AA: 69 G, .328/.398/.557, 10 HR, 54 R, 67 RBI, 3/5 SB Here's your first bright spot on the list, and it's almost blinding. I wasn't totally sold on Arcia as a top prospect at this time last year but his monstrous 2012 performance has left no doubt. This kid is one of the most promising hitters in all of the minors. He moved up to Double-A after raking in Ft. Myers, and his performance at New Britain was simply transcendent. Although he didn't collect enough at-bats after his promotion to officially qualify for the Eastern League leaderboard, Arcia ranked third in OPS among players with 250-plus plate appearances. That's particularly impressive when you consider that he's 21 and everyone else in the top seven on that list is 24 or above. Arcia hasn't shown spectacular power or plate discipline, but he's a pure hitter. His sweet left-handed swing and his ability to hit for gaudy averages at such a young age are reminiscent of Jason Kubel when he was a prospect. 6. Liam Hendriks, SP AAA: 106.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 82/28 K/BB, 0.98 WHIP MLB: 56 IP, 6.11 ERA, 36/16 K/BB, 1.64 WHIP If these rankings were made based on statistics alone, Hendriks surely would have been a top five prospect and possibly in the top three. Despite his stellar numbers throughout the minors (a trend that certainly carried over to Triple-A this year), Hendriks lacks dominant stuff and that's been on display during his time in the majors. He's been pummeled for 76 hits – including 11 homers – in 56 innings, and outside of a few quality outings he's given few indications that he belongs in a big-league rotation at this point. Hendriks will turn 24 this offseason, so he's still younger than a lot of rookies. His tumultuous time in the majors will give him some things to focus on during the offseason, and hopefully he'll be able to make the improvements necessary to become a solid mid-rotation option, which the Twins could sorely use. 5. Joe Benson, OF AA: 37 G, .184/.268/.305/, 3 HR, 13 R, 20 RBI, 3/7 SB AAA: 28 G, .179/.269/.316, 2 HR, 30 R, 36 RBI, 4/4 SB Benson may have had the most disappointing season of anyone on this list, and that's saying something after we've looked at Dozier, Wimmers and Salcedo. A supremely athletic center fielder who played well enough last year in New Britain to earn a September call-up and later rank 99th on Baseball America's listing of the game's Top 100 prospects, Benson took massive strides backward in 2012. He started out horribly in Rochester, was demoted to New Britain, broke his wrist and spent the rest of the season rehabbing and struggling. The good news is that the Twins have enough outfield prospects that Benson's development isn't crucial, but of course having a guy drop so far in one year is very unfortunate. His outstanding tools and his youth (still only 24) keep his prospect status intact, but he'll probably drop out of most Top 10s for next year. His lack of strike zone control is a huge red flag. 4. Kyle Gibson, SP A: 7 IP, 2.57 ERA, 7/1 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP AAA: 6.2 IP, 9.45 ERA, 10/1 K/BB. 1.80 WHIP In my eyes, Gibson was the organization's top pitching prospect before succumbing to Tommy John surgery last summer and after. The kid just oozes talent and he showed it this year in limited action upon returning to the field. Between his initial rehab stint in rookie ball and his brief appearances in Single-A and Triple-A, Gibson amassed an impressive 33-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 28 1/3 innings. He'll pitch in the Arizona Fall League and hopefully be on track next spring, ready to contend for a spot in Minnesota's rotation. 3. Eddie Rosario, 2B A-: .296/.345/.490, 12 HR, 60 R, 70 RBI, 11/22 SB Rosario wasn't able to put up the same ridiculous numbers in Beloit this year as he did last year in Elizabethton (21 HR, 1.068 OPS in 67 games) but nobody really expected that. Unlike his teammate on that E-Town club, Miguel Sano, Rosario doesn't profile as a high-end slugger, but he showed plenty of offensive ability in his first season as a second baseman, hitting close to .300 while ripping 32 doubles and 12 homers despite missing significant time after taking a baseball to the face. Defense is going to be the biggest question for Rosario moving forward. If he can stick in the middle infield – or better yet, become an asset there – he's going to have a lot of value, especially to a Twins organization that has really struggled to produce quality infielders. 2. Aaron Hicks, OF AA: 129 G, .286/.384/.460, 13 HR, 100 R, 61 RBI, 32/43 SB After he turned in an underwhelming campaign as a 21-year-old in Ft. Myers last year, many started to lose faith in Hicks. He dropped out of Baseball America's Top 100 (after appearing at No. 19 in 2010 and No. 45 in 2011). Some Twins prospect gurus began to sour on him. Still in love with his outstanding tools, I kept him in the No. 2 spot but noted that if he couldn't turn a corner in 2012, his athletic prowess wouldn't save him from sliding down my rankings. Fortunately, Hicks responded this year in a big way, putting together the kind of season we'd all been hoping for. As a 22-year-old in Double-A (where the average player is about three years older), Hicks set career highs in home runs, RBI, runs scored, stolen bases and pretty much any other statistic you can think of. He ranked fourth among qualifying Eastern League hitters in OPS and crossed the plate 100 times in 129 games. For a player his age to be drawing 80 walks in three straight seasons is pretty amazing. Throw in his exceptional speed and his elite defensive skills, and you've got yourself a hell of a prospect. The great thing about Hicks is that even if a few of his skills don't pan out, he can still be a solid big-league regular. If they all pan out, he's a superstar. 1. Miguel Sano, 3B A-: 129 G, .258/.373/.521, 28 HR, 75 R, 100 RBI, 8/11 SB Sano struck out 144 times in 553 plate appearances and his defense remains extremely suspect as he committed 42 errors in 125 games. The negatives pretty much stop there. His prodigious power produced 28 homers this year (not including last night's three-run moonshot in the playoffs), which is nine more than the next highest finisher in the Midwest League. Did I mention that he is only 19? No other teenager in the league hit more than 12 homers. Assuming his age is legit, Sano is so young that it's difficult to even pay attention to his flaws. All you can do is look at the power numbers posted against much more experienced pitchers and daydream about the way he'll terrorize the league when he's a few years older and playing in the majors. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: diamond.jpg The Twins have taken a "quantity, not quality" approaching in assembling their starting rotation this winter, piling up numerous pitchers with limited upside and low price tags. Several of the hurlers that will be in the mix for starting jobs in the spring happen to be tagged with question marks due to recent health issues.. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Kyle Gibson returned late last year from Tommy John surgery and hasn't yet pitched in the majors. Mike Pelfrey is returning from his own TJ operation, which he underwent last May. Vance Worley and Scott Diamond both had minor elbow scopes during the offseason. Rich Harden is trying to come back from major shoulder surgery. Given the sheer number of available arms and the fragile nature of many of them, would it make sense for the Twins to open the season with a six-man rotation? This would allow them to get early looks at several different guys while also increasing the rest periods between starts. With pitchers like Gibson and Pelfrey likely to be facing inning restrictions, this approach might help them pitch later into the year. And while the Twins lack punch at the top end of their rotation, they have no shortage of No. 4/5 types so going with six starters wouldn't necessarily dilute the overall quality of the unit much. Assuming they won't be adding any more legit arms, the Twins have put themselves into a bit of a quirky situation, with a high volume of potentially useful starters but a daunting shortage of reliability. In order to work these circumstances to their advantage, they might need to get a little creative. What do you think? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: kyle-waldrop-pitching.jpg The Twins have been taxing their bullpen lately and are amidst a stretch of 20 games without a day off, so it makes sense that they decided to send down Matt Carson – who became the fifth outfielder after Denard Span returned Thursday – in exchange for relief help. The pitcher they called upon is Kyle Waldrop. This is his second time getting the nod this year, and he only missed a spot on the Opening Day roster because of an injury. It seems clear that the Twins are very high on him, but it's not very clear why. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Standing 6'5", Waldrop gets a nice downward plane on his pitches and induces a lot of ground balls. In that sense, he's got some potential. At the same time, he doesn't miss any bats. For his career in the minors, Waldrop has averaged 5.7 K/9; for comparison, Nick Blackburn posted a 5.5 mark in his minor-league career. It's certainly possible for a reliever with a substandard strikeout rate to be effective if he limits walks and keeps the ball down, but Waldrop's K-rate is beyond substandard. Given that he's averaged 5.7 whiffs per nine innings (including 5.2 above Single-A) there's a good chance he'll rank among the most contact-heavy relief pitchers in the majors. Currently only two MLB relievers have a K/9 mark below 5.0 – two of them are on the Twins (Alex Burnett and Jeff Gray). Do they really intend to move forward with a bullpen filled with guys that can't come in and get a strikeout? At this point, the Twins' sole focus should be evaluating players for next year and beyond. In order to give Waldrop another look, they bypassed players like Anthony Slama – who is healthy again and back to putting up cartoonish numbers in Triple-A – and Deolis Guerra, who will be out of options next year. Guerra has a bloated ERA in Rochester right now thanks to a home run spike, but his 50-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 51 innings is far superior to Waldrop's horrible 16-to-13 in 39 innings. Given his previous ranking as a top prospect and his general success since converting to relief duties, you'd have to think that Guerra is more likely to be a long-term bullpen asset than Waldrop. Speaking of long-term bullpen assets, Gray very obviously is not one. Why is he still on the roster and holding some of these other guys back? Not only has he been one of the least effective relief pitchers in the game this year, he's 30 with a terrible track record and virtually no upside. His future with the organization won't last past this year (you'd hope) so why do the Twins continue to give him innings while missing an opportunity to work with younger arms that they need to make decisions on, such as Guerra and Slama? It's been one of the most befuddling aspects of this season, but hopefully it will cease to be an issue when rosters expand in a week. Click here to view the article

I wasn't in attendance at Monday's home opener, but by all accounts Target Field was mostly lifeless during a 5-1 snoozer that dropped the home team to 0-4 on the season. Through four games, the Twins have scored six runs and haven't held a lead at any point. The brutal start is making it tough for fans to generate any kind of enthusiasm following a 99-loss campaign in which this type of dreadful play was all too common. It's easy to overreact in situations such as this – consider that four games is but 1/40th of the total schedule and the Twins could conceivably be back at .500 by the end of the week – but no one should be blamed for feeling a sense of alarm. After all, the Twins have been soundly defeated four straight times and we haven't even seen any of their true weaknesses tested. We haven't seen Carl Pavano offer his mid-80s arsenal to a high-powered lineup. We haven't seen this patchwork bullpen try to protect a slim lead. We haven't seen these fielders forced to make tough, heady plays with a game on the line. The offense, widely considered the club's strongest unit entering the season, has been abysmal through these first four games, preventing the Twins from even having a chance to compete. The good news is that it's not going to last. Eventually the lineup is going to awaken and start producing enough to take some leads. Will the pitching staff be able to protect those leads on a consistent basis, though? That's where the uncertainty truly lies on this roster. It's easy to lose sight of it with the bats in an ongoing slumber, but run prevention is the greatest long-term challenge for the Twins this year. Pitching hasn't lost the Twins any games thus far. It hasn't had a chance to. Once the offense picks up (which it surely will, at least to some degree) we'll see whether these hurlers – and the defenders behind them – can answer the call and do what it takes to get on the winning track and make fans forget about this season-opening slump. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little scared to find out. Download attachment: 1061baseball_bat.jpg Click here to view the article

Download attachment: justin-morneau1.jpg Likely Starter: Justin Morneau 2012 Stats: .267/.333/.440, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 63 R Potential Backups: Chris Parmelee, Joe Mauer, Jeff Clement It’s been so long since we’ve seen Justin Morneau at his best, it’s easy to forget what “his best” even looked like.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In the two-and-a-half seasons since his fateful concussion in Toronto, Morneau has shown only the occasion glimpse of elite hitting ability. Beyond the lingering effects of the head injury, which dragged on for well over a year and often prevented him from being able to work out at full capacity, Morneau has dealt with a barrage of dings, nicks and strains to nearly every other part of his body. It's like his voodoo doll fell in a blender. For such a sturdily built athlete, the first baseman has had a shockingly difficult time staying healthy. He was definition of durability in 2008, when he played in all 163 of Minnesota’s games, but since then he’s missed at least 27 games every season. Just when it seems like he’s gotten past another major ailment, something else invariably pops up to take a treacherous toll on his performance or sideline him. That’s why it’s understandable if you're dubious of Morneau right now, despite the fact that he is – by all accounts – as healthy as he’s been in years, and absolutely crushing the ball this spring. One year ago, Morneau was openly pondering the idea of retirement, feeling as though his nagging head and wrist issues may never disappear. Now, he's fresh off a brief but dominant stint with Canada in the World Baseball Classic and his decision to participate in the tourney was significant. Entering the final leg of his current contract, this is a hugely important season for Morneau's future; his health and production over the course of the coming campaign will dictate whether he lands a one-year make good or a sizable multi-year deal afterward. That he was willing to forgo the controlled pace in Ft. Myers and compete in a pressure-packed preseason environment signals a high level of confidence in the state of his 31-year-old body. Everything he’s done on the field over the past month has helped to legitimize that confidence. In a handful of games played with the Twins, Morneau was locked in, smashing hard liners to all fields and knocking in runs. In 20 at-bats, he tallied three doubles, a homer and eight RBI, bringing back memories of his heyday from 2006 through 2009 when his total of 470 RBI ranked him fourth in baseball, behind only Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. While batting cleanup for the Canadians in the WBC, he continued to rake, collecting seven hits (three doubles) in 11 at-bats for a cool .636 batting average. Put all the pieces together, and you've got a healthy, confident former MVP who's playing for a contract. If the guy takes you by surprise this year, you haven't been paying attention. Of course, to come full circle, it would not be a surprise if health again became a problem for the battered slugger. Nor would it be a surprise if he were traded at some point during the summer. Therefore, depth here is important. Chris Parmelee, who will open the season in the outfield, looms as the heir apparent, if all goes to plan. He's in line to replace the veteran at first next year and circumstances could hasten that process, although Parmelee will need to hit. Jeff Clement, the former premier prospect turned 29-year-old flameout, could eventually become an option. Chris Colabello, a fellow minor-leaguer journeyman who's had a pretty nice WBC himself, is a long-shot contender. But, as is usually the case, Minnesota's system is short on outstanding first base prospects. They're counting on a big year from Morneau, who could become an appealing trade chip while also helping keep the Twins relevant. But, as the future of the position is concerned, they're counting on a big year from Parmelee even more. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: ervin-santana.jpg The Royals took a gamble last offseason when they traded for Ervin Santana, who was coming off an ugly season in Anaheim where he went 9-13 with a 5.16 ERA while coughing up a league-leading 39 home runs. Kansas City didn't have to give up much in the deal, but they did take on a $12 million commitment to a pitcher in the wake of a poor season. For a club that's hardly been known for aggressive, win-now type moves, the splash certainly drew some attention (especially in combination with the blockbuster James Shields trade). The Royals ended up with their highest win total (86) since 1989 this season, and Santana played a big part, bouncing back in a major way to post a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 211 innings.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Considering that the right-hander had preceded his 2012 clunker with strong seasons in both 2011 and 2010, his down year looks like the outlier. As a 30-year-old with a recent record of success and the ability to miss some bats, Santana is arguably the top starting pitcher openly available this winter outside of Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka. Are the Twins prepared to become involved in what is sure to be a competitive market with the hopes of once again adding a Santana to the top of their rotation? Let's take a look at the pros and cons. Why Does He Fit? On a basic level, the problem with Twins pitching these days is quite obvious: they allow way too many hits. As a staff in 2013, they allowed the most knocks of any MLB team (1,591) and among the 11 pitchers that made at least one start for Minnesota, nine allowed an average of more than 10.0 hits per nine innings. To put that in some context, the American League average for H/9IP was 8.8 and only four qualifying pitchers finished the season with a mark of 10.0 or above. Santana would be a refreshing change of pace. His career H/9IP rate is 8.7 and he hasn't allowed more than a hit per inning since 2009. Even in 2012, when he struggled, Santana held opponents to a .238 batting average and registered a solid 1.27 WHIP; his disappointing results were largely tied to an absurdly high home run rate that was mostly out of line with the rest of his career, and almost surely wouldn't be repeated at Target Field. While he had a few elbow issues crop up in 2012 (another part of the reason Kansas City took a risk in acquiring him) he's mostly been injury-free since 2009, averaging 32 starts and 210 innings per season. Why Doesn't He Fit? Well, cost is going to be the main factor. I'm willing to believe that Terry Ryan and the Twins are prepared loosen the purse strings for a guy they really like, but even as a strong fit Santana may have priced himself out of their range with an outstanding season in KC. Since he carries fewer question marks than fellow top free agent talents such as Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez and Phil Hughes, Santana could be the most coveted option for clubs seeking reliable help at the top of the rotation (and looking to avoid the Tanaka sweepstakes). That means he may be looking at a contract approaching (or even exceeding) $100 million. Other than his price tag, it's tough to name a reason the Twins shouldn't at least pursue Santana. He's largely been a very good pitcher in recent years, he's reasonably young, he throws hard with good command and he's been quite durable. He's probably not going to be an "ace" in the traditional sense, but he might be the closest thing you'll find on this year's market. He's a safer bet than most of the alternatives. What Will He Cost? Offseason Handbook estimate: five years, $80 million. As always, the contract could easily prove larger since we can't really anticipate how much the new revenues will inflate the market, but I have a hard time believing he'll get less than that. Santana is coming off a career year and has a more consistently strong recent MLB track record than any of his free agent peers. Click here to view the article

Geoff Baker, a scribe for The Seattle Times, penned a lengthy but very interesting column earlier this week about spending in baseball. I recommend taking the time to read it, as the themes are very applicable for Twins fans, but the gist of his argument is that ultra-rich baseball owners are gaming the system by soaking up public money and spending farDownload attachment: 000_A_Moneytree4.jpg less on payroll than they can afford to. Meanwhile, the baseball community overlooks this injustice and credits general managers (such as Billy Beane, Andrew Friedman and Terry Ryan) who are able to succeed under superficial and ultimately unnecessary financial constraints. I've heard plenty of Twins fans express outrage over the team's decision to cut payroll this year, and the points made by Baker in his widely read column only serve to fan the flames. In many ways, I can identify with these gripes. But I also wonder whether some fans are getting too caught up in their frustration, to the point where it's dampening their enjoyment of the sport. Look, we all wish the Twins would spend more money. Basically every fan wishes their team would spend more money. But as Baker's column points out, the problem is systemic. I don't see him naming one single owner who is bucking the trend and dumping money out of his own pocket into payroll. These guys generally become millionaires (or billionaires) through savvy business decisions and by running a profitable organization, so that's how they operate their baseball clubs. They put the money that their product earns back into that product -- into payroll, into paying employees, into community funds -- and yes, maybe they pocket a little. That's their right. They own the team. Baker makes it seem unconscionable for any fan to be content with this model, but really, what is any amount of whining and complaining going to accomplish? The Twins have always claimed they put around 50-52 percent of revenue back into payroll, which would indicate a current annual revenue stream of about around $200 million. Maybe they make more, but is there any evidence for that other than blind frustration? They don't open their books, and they aren't required to. If you take their word for it, the Twins went over their stated threshold last year because they wanted to retain a few extra players (namely Jim Thome and Carl Pavano) and make a push. Didn't work out. I think we can all agree that their prospects for contending this year are not as strong, so I'm not going to sit here and blast them for falling back to the $100 million level that has been set as a baseline. They've demonstrated that they're willing to exceed that benchmark when the time is right, but now is probably not that time. One hundred million dollars, spent well, should be plenty to contend in this division. It puts the Twins solidly in the upper half of MLB team payrolls. Yes, the Pohlads could afford to spend more, but so could every other owner. That's just the way it is, and the way it shall be. By endlessly complaining about a situation that's not likely to change any time soon (and that we, as individual fans, have no real control over, regardless of Baker's rant) you're wasting your breath and sucking the fun out of the game for yourself. Click here to view the article

Last year, when the Twins reached the All-Star break, they were 14 games below .500 and 12 games back in the AL Central. In 2012, they had entered the break at 13 games below .500, and 11 games back in the division. Against that backdrop, their present standing -- 44-50 and 10.5 games behind the first-place Tigers -- looks downright palatable. The Twins had firmly established their irrelevance by the end of July after crumbling around the break in each of the past two seasons, and a week ago it appeared that they were caught in the exact same downward spiral once again. Yet they rebounded to win five of their last six games and a soft schedule following the All-Star Game could help the team set itself up much more favorably as it enters the latter portion of this season. The Twins will open their unofficial second half with a 10-game homestand, in which they'll be facing teams that are all close to them in the W/L column. Two of those teams (Cleveland and Chicago) are just ahead of them in the Central, giving Minnesota a solid opportunity to escape last place. A good run here isn't going to suddenly put the Twins in position to surge and capture the division, and it probably won't bring them especially close to a wild-card spot, but that was never the realistic mission. Download attachment: gardenhire.jpg The mission -- and likely the standard by which Ron Gardenhire, his staff and perhaps the front office will be chiefly evaluated -- is improvement. Here at the break, they have an improved record compared to the past couple years, but that's meaningless. What matters is how they finish. The complete shut-down in the final months has been a recurring theme over the past three seasons, and a heck of a frustrating one at that. Sure, the late-season losses have helped the Twins accumulate a lot of high draft picks, but ending each year on such a sour note, with few enduring positives to cling to, takes a toll on the fan base. The Twins are determined to avoid a repeat this year, and that's good to see. They've been more proactive with making moves, and they've been spending money (with varying results). To me, the increased efforts to hasten this stalled out rebuilding process are quite apparent. While that's all good to see, hopefully the Twins won't let their resolve to stay afloat and finish better cloud their priorities as the trade deadline approaches. There's really no question that this team needs to be a seller, but playing that role does not equate to waving a white flag. If the Twins are to shake their post-break demons and finish respectably for a change, it needs to be on the shoulders of players who are either young or under contract long-term. Even if the team can stay hot and approach .500 over the next couple weeks, you'd hope the big picture will remain clear, and that guys like Kurt Suzuki, Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia will still be made available, albeit for meager returns. Much like the exhibition that took place at Target Field on Sunday, the rest of the Twins' season is about the future. That doesn't mean it isn't about winning, but they need to find success that is driven by players like Josmil Pinto, Oswaldo Arcia and Trevor May, not aging veterans with expiring contracts. [/hr] Need some pizza to munch on while watching Brian Dozier and Justin Morneau compete in tonight's Home Run Derby? Since the Twins closed out their first half with a win on Sunday, you can get half off your L or XL pizza from PapaJohns.com with the promo code 'TWINSWIN'! Click here to view the article

Download attachment: LiamHendriks.jpg Liam Hendriks is still only 24 years old. He owns a career 2.99 ERA in the minor leagues. He was dominant against Triple-A hitters as recently as last year. In so many respects, it seems far too soon to consider giving up on the Australian righty. Yet, after watching his downright miserable performance in Chicago on Monday night, it's awfully difficult to come away with any conclusion other than this: The Twins need to move on. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hendriks' latest outing is the lowlight in what's been a tumultuous major-league career. He's had plenty of clunkers across the past three seasons, in which he is 2-13 with a 6.01 ERA, but Monday's dud truly takes the cake. Going against a White Sox club that was averaging a league-low 3.64 runs per game and had scored just seven times in its past six contests, Hendriks coughed up seven runs on five hits and three walks while recording only two outs. It has always been somewhat apparent from watching him that Hendriks doesn't really have the stuff to be an effective major-league pitcher, but his youth and his superb numbers throughout most of his minor-league career (not to mention a dearth of appealing alternative options in the high levels) have led many -- including myself -- to urge the right-hander be given more opportunities. And the Twins have given him those opportunities. They let him roll for 16 starts last year despite his consistently poor results. And this season, even though he was coming off his worst season in the minors (he went 4-8 with a 4.67 ERA in Rochester) the Twins called him up in September so he could try to finish on a high note. Instead, Hendriks has done the opposite. In what was likely his final start of the season, he was as bad as could be. And the timing could hardly be worse for the Aussie, who will be out of options next year. With the Twins badly needing to improve their organizational talent during the offseason, it's no longer palatable to dedicate a 40-man roster spot to someone who has unfortunately been one of the chief contributors to their pitching woes over the last couple years. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hellickson.jpg The Rays, possessing a glut of quality starting pitchers and seeking an outfielder who can be an asset at the top of the order, have been pointed at frequently around here as a logical trade partner for the Twins. The Offseason Handbook specifically calls out James Shields and Wade Davis as potential targets in Tampa's pitching corps, and there are several other names that hold appeal. According to reports, the Rays hurler drawing the most interest is Jeremy Hellickson. This isn't surprising. He carries plenty of value as a young right-hander with a 3.06 career ERA and the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year trophy on his shelf. On the surface, he has the makings of a long-term top-of-the-rotation fixture. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] A deeper look, however, would suggest that Hellickson has been performing over his head to some degree in his first couple big-league seasons, making him a risky proposition for a Twins team that can ill afford to whiff on a major trade. I'm a big proponent of K/BB ratio as an indicator of a pitcher's outlook, and although his core numbers have been excellent Hellickson has simply been underwhelming in this category, with a 1.84 ratio in his first two full seasons. His success thus far has been buoyed to a large degree by a low BABIP and a high strand rate. There's plenty of data indicating that neither of those factors can be consistently controlled by a pitcher in the long haul. None of this is to suggest that Hellickson isn't a good pitcher. He's very good. He was an elite prospect before joining the major-league ranks and for the most part you don't put up the kind of numbers he has as a 24/25-year-old in the AL East through sheer luck. I'm fully willing to believe that his game is tailored to produce quality numbers without big strikeout rates. His 9.8 K/9 rate in the minors even suggests that he's got some upside yet in the strikeout department despite a 6.1 mark in his first 400 MLB innings. But the Rays will justifiably be shopping him as a young star pitcher under team control for several years, and as such, they'll be demanding a sizable ransom. In my view, he's been performing at his ceiling and has much more room for regression than improvement going forward. I see him as a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy much more than a legitimate No. 1 or 2. That's certainly not a guy the Twins should be shying away from adding, but at what cost? Terry Ryan and Co. would be much better off identifying a talented pitcher with strong peripherals who has been underperforming and can be acquired at a discount, as opposed to Hellickson who embodies the flip side of that coin. Click here to view the article

When it came down to it, the folks running the Twins couldn't find it in themselves to make Ron Gardenhire a scapegoat by sending him packing after another 96-loss season that wasn't influenced much by the field manager. Sure, you can argue that Gardenhire isn't a great skipper, and you can argue that the team would benefit from a fresh voice, but at the end of the day there wasn't much Gardy could have done to get significantly better results out of the substandard roster supplied to him this season. Personally, although I wouldn't have been appalled to see the club go a different direction, I had no particular desire to see Gardenhire leave. Similarly, you won't see me advocating for the dismissal of Terry Ryan.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For the most part, I tend to think that calls for coaches and execs to get fired are reactionary and uninformed, failing to account for the many circumstances that play into any outcome. When a player's return from injury takes too long or recovery timetables are repeatedly extended, we see people calling for firings in the medical staff, ignoring the reality that medicine is an inexact science and quite often players are more responsible than trainers for setbacks. When the offense struggles and the hitters strike out at an unprecedented rate, we see people calling for the firing of the new hitting coach, ignoring the presence of inexperienced young players taking their (not unexpected) lumps. If the team fails to acquire legitimate free agents that can help, we see people calling for the firing of the general manager, ignoring the possibilities that maybe ownership vetoed certain spending initiatives or maybe the guys Ryan wanted simply wouldn't sign here. Crying out for people to lose their jobs is easy, but it's not necessarily rational. I myself have no desire for anyone to get the axe unless it becomes blatantly clear that they're not up to the task, and I haven't reached that point with Gardenhire, nor his coaches, nor Ryan. However, there's no avoiding the fact that the Twins have descended into a horrible, horrible state and people need to step up and take responsibility. I don't care to see people fired, but I do need them to show accountability and convince me that they recognize what's gone wrong -- that they're ready to do what it takes to right the ship, even if that means moving outside of comfort zones. We haven't seen that, and to me that's far more disheartening than the fact that Gardenhire and his staff were extended in the wake of another losing season. Download attachment: gardenhireRyan.jpg During a conference call with season ticket holders earlier this week, Ryan was asked about a recent column from Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN, in which the radio host and scribe suggested that the Twins need to infuse some innovation into their outdated set of philosophies. It's a good article that makes some extremely valid -- and perhaps obvious -- points. As Mackey puts it: "The Twins aren't masters of anything right now. They don't do one thing better than the other 29 teams in baseball. They used to. But they don't anymore." When asked about the editorial, Ryan said he was aware of it and downplayed it by saying, "Sometimes I think he (Mackey) wants a job over here. That's OK." Come on Terry. You're better than that, and you owe the fans a better answer than that. A writer puts together a thoughtful piece suggesting that perhaps the Twins need to uncover new strategies and approaches, considering that what they've been doing clearly isn't working, and Ryan responds by essentially saying, "Nah, we're doing fine, thanks." That's the opposite of accountability. And we're seeing too many similar sentiments expressed lately. Ryan admirably is willing to take the blame for the current product, saying that it's his fault and not the manager's that the Twins continue to stumble in the wrong direction; what he's not doing is specifying just exactly what he's doing wrong or providing assurance that he's working to correct the misguided ideas that have plagued the organization. It starts with rhetoric. Nobody wants to hear the same quotes about how free agency isn't a viable method of improving your club. Nobody wants to hear about how a team with one of the worst offenses in the league is still opposed to the simple and proven concept of platooning hitters. Nobody wants to hear about how the mediocre performances of low-upside veterans Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey were among the team's biggest positive takeaways this year. Taking accountability doesn't necessarily mean changing personnel. It means looking inward, accepting that some things simply aren't working, and proving -- through both words and actions -- that you're flexible and receptive to changes in those ways. And if that can't happen, then maybe it is time for some changes in personnel. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: top-prospects-10-trevor-may.jpg So, as you might have heard, Twins pitching prospect Trevor May has been on a heck of a run in Triple-A. The 25-year-old right-hander was named International League Pitcher of the Week on Monday and hasn't allowed an earned run in his last four starts. Overall, May is sitting with a 2.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 10 starts this year, while averaging about a strikeout per inning and holding opponents to a .196 batting average. That sounds like a guy who should be up on the big-league staff. The only problem -- and this ain't exactly a bad problem -- is that right now there's no obvious spot for May to fill. That's a bit of an odd conundrum considering that the Twins have the worst starting pitching ERA in the American League at 4.86. But when you look at the five starters currently comprising the rotation, you can't really argue that any are deserving of a demotion. In part, that is because Minnesota's starters have been shockingly healthy. Outside of the ailing Mike Pelfrey, nobody has missed a start in the first two months, which is sort of amazing after the last couple years. In terms of performance, there are some ugly overall numbers in the mix, but everyone has been holding their own recently, helping to explain the club's decent 13-16 record in a month of May where the offense averaged only 3.2 runs per game. It goes without saying that Phil Hughes is locked in. He's been one of the best starters in the league. Ricky Nolasco also isn't going anywhere, since he's in Year 1 of a four-year deal (he has also allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last six turns). Samuel Deduno hasn't been spectacular since taking over for Pelfrey in early May, but certainly hasn't done anything to put his job in danger. Kyle Gibson's performances have been uneven, and his ugly 29-to-20 K/BB ratio in 56 innings is a bit worrisome, but this is sink-or-swim time for the 26-year-old right-hander and the Twins have little to gain by sending him back to Triple-A. The most obvious slot for May to take over is, and has been, that of Kevin Correia. The veteran is in the final year of his deal with the Twins, and has had an ERA north of 6 for much of the campaign. But even as someone who is clearly not the biggest Correia fan in the world, I can't really advocate for his removal from the rotation at this point. Correia simply hasn't pitched as poorly as his bloated 5.87 ERA suggests. His 5.0 K/9 rate -- while far from good -- is better than any mark he's posted in the last three years, and he has the best walk rate among Twins starters outside of Hughes. Correia has also allowed only six homers in 61 innings. The biggest issues for Correia have been a .338 batting average on balls in play and a league-worst 59.6 percent strand rate. Both categories are considered to be -- at least to some extent -- luck-based, and by that convention Correia has been among the most unlucky starting pitchers in the majors. You can't really punish a guy for being unlucky. Correia is doing what he needs to do. So here's the situation: Barring monumental struggles, contractual and developmental considerations mean that Hughes, Nolasco and Gibson are staying put all year. Deduno and Correia aren't pitching their way out of jobs. This means that in order to get his chance, May is going to need to wait until one of the latter two starters falls into a legitimate slump, or someone gets hurt. It also means that if and when Pelfrey finally gets healthy, he's going to have a very tough time breaking back into the rotation. Like I said, not a bad problem to have, but certainly a peculiar one for a starting staff that statistically ranks as the second-worst in baseball. [/hr]Since the Twins rallied and took down the Yankees on Sunday to complete a rare series victory in New York, you can get half off your online order at PapaJohns.com on Monday with the promo code 'TWINSWIN'. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: reverechat.jpg Last year, Minnesota's outfield was a mess. Among players who put in significant time at an OF spot, only Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel posted an OPS over .700, and neither appeared in more than 77 games as on outfielder (Cuddyer due to Justin Morneau's injury, Kubel due to his own). This, along with Denard Span's costly injury, left a lot of at-bats for the likes of Delmon Young, Jason Repko, Rene Tosoni and a rookie Ben Revere, all of whom struggled mightily. This year has produced a rather dramatic turnaround, as the Twins' outfield has been one of the most stable and successful in memory. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Josh Willingham has started 92 of a possible 110 games in left field. Though his defense has been suspect, his bat has more than made up for it as he's having a more productive season than Cuddyer or Kubel ever had here. One can easily argue that the slugger will be unable to maintain this performance throughout his contract, but the fact that he's showing absolutely zero signs of age at 33 cannot be viewed as anything other than an enormous positive. Additionally, the two guys next to Willingham have helped overshadow his deficiencies with the glove. One of those guys is Denard Span, who has started 97 of 110 games in center. He's not the elite top-of-the-order bat he once was, but the 28-year-old has been a durable, complete player. While he hasn't been spectacular in any area (except possibly defense), he's been very solid all-around and a quality leadoff man. Most importantly, his concussion issues from last year have rarely even been referenced this summer. Then there's Ben Revere, whose improvement is rather astounding. At age 24, he's already fulfilling his promise. As a guy who doesn't walk much or collect many extra-base hits, he needs to hit well over .300 and play stellar defense to be a truly valuable asset. Right now he's doing just that. Considering his skill set and the .326 average posted during his rapid assent through the minors, there's no reason to think he can't do it consistently for many years to come. I haven't even mentioned Darin Mastroianni, who is establishing himself as an ideal fourth outfielder with his rangy defense and elite base running skills. The great part about these players is that they're all under team control through at least 2015. The better part is that an infusion of excellent young outfield talent – namely Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks – is rapidly approaching the majors. Assuming those two continue to develop, the Twins will have a pleasant problem on their hands with an overload of quality outfielders. There have been a number of quirky things about this 2012 season. The fact that the Twins have managed to vastly improve their outlook in the outfield despite losing their two top producers to free agency surely must be viewed as one of the most enjoyable. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mauer.jpg Likely Starter: Joe Mauer 2012 Stats: .319/.416/.446, 10 HR, 85 RBI, 81 R Potential Backups: Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann Joe Mauer wasn't officially honored as the American League's Comeback Player of the Year last season, losing out to Fernando Rodney, but he had an awfully good case.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] His 2011 campaign was as tumultuous as that of any player in baseball, seeing him descend from idol to villain in the eyes of a fan base frustrated by vague injuries, disappointing on-field performance and lacking accountability. Magnifying all these issues were the backdrops of a disastrous season for the club and a massive contract that was just getting underway. In 2012, Mauer put it all behind him. Some worried that the seeds of trouble sprouting in that '11 season would blossom into long-term limitations but last year it was like none of that stuff had ever happened. Mauer looked like his old self, spraying line drives all over the field and competing for a batting title down to the final days of the season. Rejuvenated, he posted the third-highest home run total of his career. As if to prove a point about the condition of his legs, he attempted 12 stolen bases -- as many as the previous four years combined -- and set a career high for games played with 147. The one thing that changed, relative to past successful seasons, was a dramatic reduction in his workload at catcher. Behind the plate for 83 percent of his starts in 2010, Mauer saw that number drop to 50 percent as his playing time at DH and first base shot up. This approach made sense for two principal reasons: first, caution with his battered legs was clearly warranted; second, moving Mauer out from behind the plate didn’t hurt the lineup the way it has in the past due to the presence of an offensive asset as the backup. Ryan Doumit looked like a great fit when the Twins signed him to a one-year deal prior to the 2012 season, and he worked out so well that the club extended his contract for two years in the middle of the summer. He’ll be back to help ease Mauer’s workload, while both players can periodically fill in elsewhere. With those two locked in, the question is whether a third backstop will accompany them on the roster. That has largely been assumed, since Drew Butera has held down a spot three years running and re-signed for $700,000 during the offseason, but Ron Gardenhire has hinted that he’s ready to snap his long-standing trend and carry two catchers in favor of a more potent bench. Without Butera weighing the position down, the Twins could realistically boast the best offensive output of any team in the league at catcher, especially if the prime-aged Mauer takes another step forward with 2011 shrinking in the rearview mirror. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: plouffemorneau.jpg Stability at third base and right-handed power have both been in short supply for the Twins over the past decade or so. Trevor Plouffe has developed into one of the team’s most interesting commodities because he has the potential to fill both needs, and could do so at a relatively low cost for the next several years. As a homegrown talent, Plouffe is precisely the type of player the Twins want to structure their rebuild around, but clearly they still hold reservations about him.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Inconsistency and defensive question marks have plagued him throughout his career and continue to keep decision-makers on the fence about his value going forward. He’s 26 and entering his first season with a full-time MLB job secured, so this campaign will be critical toward determining his future with the team. 2012 Recap To call Plouffe’s midseason tear a “hot streak” seems to undersell it. For an extended period of time last year, he was a scorching inferno, incinerating everything he came into contact with. I mean, seriously, 18 homers in 39 games? A .638 slugging percentage over a two-month stretch? That’s silly. Those numbers aren’t possible for a player that doesn’t possess some serious talent. Of course, Plouffe’s ability has never really been in question. There’s a reason the Twins drafted him in the first round and moved him steadily through their system despite relatively modest numbers in the lower levels. With his size, his strength and his quick wrists, Plouffe has always displayed above-average pop for a middle infielder. Through his first 222 major-league games, the downside is that he’s been nudged out of the middle infield, but the upside is that his power may be on a higher plane than simply “above-average.” At one point last year Plouffe was on pace to finish with 40 home runs, and while the late-season swoon that caused him to finish with 24 could be viewed as an inevitable regression to the mean, there was also a debilitating thumb injury in play. It sidelined him for a few weeks and undoubtedly affected him down the stretch. Why He’ll Be Worse The big question is to what degree Plouffe’s thumb injury derailed his performance. Quite possibly it was a minor factor, and the larger problem was that pitchers adjusted and started attacking him in ways he couldn’t adapt to. In both the minors and majors, the infielder has historically had problems controlling the strike zone. In his first MLB stint back in 2010, he struck out 14 times and drew zero walks in 44 plate appearances, batting .146. His K/BB rates have improved in two seasons since, but last year’s 97/35 mark was still ugly and contributed heavily to a .235 batting average. Plouffe can send the ball a mile when he connects, but his long swing has holes, and no one can exploit those holes like major-league pitchers. If hurlers continue to stay one step ahead of him, as they have been for the majority of his big-league career outside of a few windows, his batting average and OBP will continue to falter and he’ll struggle to coax mistake pitches that end up in the seats. His defense is obviously another concern. Although he showed some impressive skills at the hot corner last year, you get the sense that the Twins weren’t especially happy with his glovework overall. If he doesn’t make the necessary improvements they might simply give up on the idea of him as a regular infielder. Moving to the outfield or DH would ding his value, particularly in light of this organization’s drastic need for productive infield bats. Why He’ll Be Better Skeptics have suggested that Plouffe’s superhuman stretch last year was a fluke, pointing out that there was no precedent for that type of outburst in his track record. This may be true to some extent, but it’s worth noting that Plouffe had a similar run at Triple-A in 2011, where he hit went deep 15 times in 51 games with a .635 slugging percentage. In his first six pro seasons Plouffe never topped 13 bombs but in the past three years between Triple-A and the majors he has hit 17, 23 and 24 homers. At the beginnings of those seasons he was 23, 24 and 25 years old. To me, he profiles very much as a guy coming into his own as he approaches his physical prime and adjusts to the competition at the highest levels. It would be much easier to label last year’s breakout an outlier if it weren't preceded by several seasons of steady improvement. The careers of most ballplayers follow a bell curve and it’s quite possible that Plouffe has not yet reached his precipice. Conclusion Over the past two seasons, Plouffe has hit more home runs than any Twin not named Josh Willingham, and he’s accomplished that despite playing only 200 total games and being one of the youngest players on the roster. If he can stay healthy and continue his trend of improvement this year, there’s little reason to believe he won’t top 30 homers and become a tremendous asset in a lineup core that has a chance to be quite potent. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Sabathia_600-321.jpg Each year in our Offseason Handbook, we put together a list of all the upcoming free agents at every position. Beyond the write-ups and statistical breakdowns for each player, we estimate the contract we expect them to get, so that armchair GMs can fit prospective acquisitions into their budgets. This is an aspect of the publication that we take very seriously. In fact, every year, we set aside a day for the entire editorial staff to get together and reach a consensus on each what each free agent might get. This process takes several hours and invariably leads to numerous fisticuffs, but the end result is a fair measure of accuracy.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] We feel that giving readers a reasonable idea of what each free agent will command is a cool feature of the product, and so we want to get as close as we can. Given the Twins' current needs, the starting pitcher free agent section is inevitably going to be one of the most important in this year's Handbook. So I thought today I would take a look back at last year's edition and review our contract estimates for starters compared to the actual contracts that those pitchers ultimately received. We certainly weren't always perfect, but in the instances where we missed, perhaps there's a lesson to be learned that can carry over to this year's crop. CC Sabathia Estimated Contract: 5 years, $130M Actual Contract: 5 years, $122M Notes: Sabathia's last contract ran through 2015, but it was widely expected that he would opt out and try to get more money out of the Yankees. He did just that, and we were pretty close on what the two sides ended up agreeing upon. CJ Wilson Estimated Contract: 5 years, $85M Actual Contract: 5 years, $77.5M Notes: We were pretty close on this one as well. The 31-year-old Wilson signed a five-year deal with the Angels for slightly less than we guessed. Edwin Jackson Estimated Contract: 3 years, $33M Actual Contract: 1 year, $11M Notes: We had the annual salary correct, but we didn't expect that Jackson would end up settling for a one-year deal. He probably could've gotten a multi-year contract but ended up signing with the Nats, hoping to pump up his value for the following offseason. I'd say that worked out well for him. He may get that $33 million contract this winter. Mark Buehrle Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30M Actual Contract: 4 years, $58M Notes: Apparently, we grossly underestimated Buehrle's market value. Despite the fact that he was about to turn 33 years old, the Marlins gave him a four-year deal. It's not clear that decision will ultimately work out well, but he was very Buehrle-like in the first year, posting a 3.74 ERA over 202 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma Estimated Contract: 3 years, $25M Actual Contract: 1 year, $1.5M Notes: We just sort of misread this situation. In the 2010-2011 offseason, the Athletics won the bidding on the Japenese hurler with a $19 million posting fee but Iwakuma ultimately decided to return to Japan after the two sides couldn't agree on a contract. We figured it would take a substantial chunk of change to land him one offseason later, but as it turned out the Mariners landed him on the open market for a huge bargain and he made good with a 3.16 ERA. Still only 31 years old, he may land that three-year deal this time around, and the Twins – who reportedly finished runner-up to the A's in the posting system two years ago – could be a player for him. Roy Oswalt Estimated Contract: 2 years, $22M Actual Contract: 1 year, $5M Notes: There was a fair amount of interest in Oswalt last offseason, but rather than signing with a club, he semi-retired, only to sign with the Rangers in late May on a pro-rated $5 million deal. It didn't work out well, as he pitched poorly and ended up getting demoted to the bullpen. Aaron Harang Estimated Contract: 2 years, $15M Actual Contract: 2 years, $12M Notes: We were pretty close on this one, as well as the next three. Hiroki Kuroda Estimated Contract: 1 year, $11M Actual Contract: 1 year, $10M Bruce Chen Estimated Contract: 2 years, $10M Actual Contract: 2 years, $9M Paul Maholm Estimated Contract: 1 year, $4M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4.75M Notes: This deal worked out brilliantly. Not only because Maholm pitched extremely well for a modest fee, but also because they included a team option for $6.5 million, so the Braves will be able to bring him back at a reasonable price next year. This is the kind of contract the Twins should be looking to ink. Joel Pineiro Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: Minor-league deal Notes: Even though he struggled in 2011, we figured that Pineiro would be able to land a guaranteed major-league deal given that he'd turned in a 3.66 ERA over 366 innings the prior two seasons. Injury issues robbed him of that chance and he ended up pitching 24 innings in the minors for the Orioles. Jason Marquis Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $3M Notes: Based on our estimate, the Twins got a bargain! Yay. Freddy Garcia Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M Brad Penny Estimated Contract: 1 year, $2.5M Actual Contract: 1 year, $4M in Japan Notes: Weird case. Penny followed the money to Japan but was apparently miserable, as he was granted his release from the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks after one start. He returned to the States and made 22 appearances for the Giants but pitched horribly. Interested in seeing our estimates for this year's robust free agent starting pitching class? Pre-order your copy of the Offseason Handbook today and save 30 percent! Click here to view the article

In his efforts to augment a bullpen that last year ranked last in the league in ERA, FIP and WHIP, Terry Ryan's moves essentially amounted to re-signing Matt Capps and adding Joel Zumaya to replace the departed Joe Nathan. That was hardly a recipe for guaranteed substantial improvement, and now with Zumaya's unfortunate yet unsurprising injury news, Ryan's passive approach to addressing this unit in a buyer's market looks all the more irresponsible. With their sole bullpen pickup gone for the year, the Twins may react by trying to find another outside arm they can plug in. They'll now only have to pay Zumaya $400K, and his contract included incentives that escalated to $1.7M, so you'd have to figure they have $1.3M left in the budget to spend on a replacement. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That amount would have been plenty to sign a reliable relief guy such as Chad Qualls or Todd Coffey earlier in the offseason, but unfortunately all those hurlers are now off the board. The free agent market is exceedingly thin at this point, whittled down to such names as Michael Wuertz and Danys Baez – neither of whom have been effective since 2009. A trade would appear to be the more palatable solution. There are some interesting players who might be available, the most notable of them being Koji Uehara of the Rangers. Owner of a 2.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 140-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past two seasons, Uehara is an elite right-handed reliever and Texas has been dangling him all winter. The problem is that he's set to earn $4 million this year, and it's hard to believe the Twins would stretch their budget that far given their reluctance to spend even a million on an additional arm to supplement the Zumaya signing. Then again, maybe this is the moment where the Twins finally put their money where their mouth is. They've claimed that they're serious about contending. They've claimed that there's wiggle room in their reduced budget, and that ownership is willing to add payroll over the course of the season. Well, then do it. Make a move and get a dependable right-handed arm for this bullpen, because right now it's tough to identify a single one. The time has come for Ryan to shed his past conservative tendencies and take an aggressive step aimed at putting his club in position for success. If he heads into the season with this current hodgepodge of bullpen question marks, and an inability to hold leads proves to be a crippling downfall for the Twins, all the good things Ryan has done during the offseason will be overshadowed by his baffling inactivity on the relief market. That would be a shame. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: melkycabrera.jpg The free agent market has been slow to develop early in the offseason, with very few high-profile signings in the books as Thanksgiving approaches. Things should start kicking into gear now that the Winter Meetings are just two weeks away, but it's worth wondering whether the first few contracts are indicators of how the offseason climate will shape up once the dominos really begin to fall. When the Cubs lured Scott Baker away from the Twins earlier in the month, many were surprised that it took $5.5 million in guaranteed money to do so. That's just more than you typically see going to a mostly unproven player coming off major surgery. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The baseball world did another double-take last week when Melky Cabrera signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Jays. The outfielder's performance over the past couple seasons has justified that type of payday and then some, but is tainted by a 50-game PED suspension. Two guys with sizable question marks getting big guaranteed money. At that rate, just imagine what will happen when the established, healthy and relatively spot-free free agents begin to sign. Now, by nature, contracts signed in November tend to come out higher than expected. The players who sign early are generally coveted by particular clubs that will put forth an "offer they can't refuse" to finish the deal. That might be what we're seeing here. Then again, this also might be a sign that money will be flowing freely this winter. Every MLB club is in line to receive a major revenue boost in a year when new TV deals with Fox and Turner Sports kick in. Factor in other streams and basic inflation, and we could be looking at an overall market shift toward higher spending. If that's the case, the $20 million that we expect the Twins to have in the coffers might not go as far as we'd hoped. But we won't be able to make that assumption until a few more contracts are inked and we have a more representative sample to consider. At the end of the day, it might just turn out that the Cubs and Jays were very eager to make a splash. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Target Field.jpg On September 28th of last year, Carl Pavano tossed a five-hit shutout at Target Field, leading the Twins to a 1-0 victory over the Royals. It was the final game of the 2011 season, and its only significance was keeping the Twins from reaching 100 losses – a deflating milestone even if it's virtually no different from 99. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On Friday, Pavano will again be on the mound, this time looking to kick off the 2012 Redemption Tour. Returning after the worst season in the past three decades of the franchise, these Twins have much to prove to a disgruntled fan base. In Year Three at Target Field with a payroll that hovers near nine digits, they'll receive plenty of scrutiny and little patience. Rightfully so. For the Twins to reverse course so drastically that they actually contend for a playoff spot – which may require a 30-game swing in win/loss record – might be too much to ask. But fans will be looking for clear signs of improvement across the board, be it on-field play, off-field accountability or organizational direction. One year after derailing completely, the Twins don't need to pull into the station. They do need to demonstrate that they're back on the right track. Terry Ryan, who took over as general manager in November after Bill Smith's abrupt dismissal, executed a sound offseason plan that altered the state of the roster rather dramatically. In the largest exodus of franchise mainstays since Ryan first resigned back in 2007, the team said goodbye to Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan, all of whom inked lucrative contracts elsewhere as free agents. In signing Josh Willingham, Jamey Carroll, Ryan Doumit and others over the winter, Ryan's objectives were threefold: replacing the departed players, addressing areas of weakness and creating the type of depth and flexibility absent from last year's roster. If I had one overarching frustration with Smith's strategy last offseason, it was the lack of proactive planning. The 2010 season was a very successful one for the Twins, but it also created a number of ongoing health concerns, and the former GM left the roster woefully unequipped for the avalanche of injuries that was to come. Granted, the Twins stood no chance last summer one way or the other with the endless barrage of bad breaks they endured, and the same would be true this time around. But Ryan has installed legitimate contingency plans, with a number of different moving parts and bench players actually capable of stepping up to make an impact. As long as the injury bug doesn't bite hard again, the lineup should be decent at worst, with the potential to be quite good if, say, Justin Morneau's late spring performance is a sign of things to come or Chris Parmelee is for real. With that said, this offense isn't going to be confused with the Yankees. If the Twins are to stay afloat in the AL Central, they're going to need quality pitching, which was in short supply last year. It's here that my optimism fades somewhat. If all goes well with the starters – Francisco Liriano commands his fastball, Scott Baker's elbow doesn't blow up, Carl Pavano craftily succeeds, Nick Blackburn returns to 2008/09 form and Jason Marquis throws strikes – the rotation could be an asset. But, so rarely does all go well. Whereas the lineup has suitable depth, it's not clear that the Twins will be prepared to adequately replace multiple starters if that need arises. And then there's the bullpen. Ryan took an incredibly passive approach to addressing this unit during the offseason, cobbling together a group of minor-league journeymen, failed starters and reclamation projects. Matt Capps, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton, who have had two good seasons between the three of them since 2008, are hardly guaranteed to be a lockdown trio at the back end, and the rungs get shakier as you make your way down the bullpen ladder. Ron Gardenhire will need to determine a hierarchy on the fly, since few of these pitchers have been able to establish consistent roles on a big-league staff. The approach of throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall to see what sticks didn't work as a bullpen solution last year but maybe the results will be better with a true talent evaluator in charge. I'd like to think that the Twins could sport a respectable rotation with a relief corps that consistently holds leads, but in order for that to happen they'll need a lot to go right and very little to go wrong. Maybe I'm too jaded by last year, but I can't see it. I see a staff that allows a ton of contact and probably ranks among the league leaders in hits allowed because the defense still isn't very good. I see a lineup that, while vastly improved, remains several notches behind the true AL powerhouses like New York, Boston, Texas and Detroit. I also see big bounce-back years for several players, including the restoration of Joe Mauer's pristine reputation. And thanks to a weak division, I see a finish around the .500 mark, which would count as a sizable step in the right direction and might keep things interesting into August and even September. Click here to view the article

The Big Picture The Jays currently find themselves in a familiar situation, enjoying a good season but struggling to gain traction in a treacherous division. Toronto's 38-36 record would have them a game back in the AL Central, but the team sits last in the East, trailing the red-hot Yankees by 7.5 games. That's right, the Blue Jays – with a record two games over .500 – are only one game closer to first than the Twins, who hold the American League's worst record. Yep, life in the AL East is tough. Download attachment: lind.jpg Of course, this has always been Toronto's plight, and it's not likely to change any time soon. At some point, they need to make an aggressive push to overcome their daunting divisional rivals, and with the strong roster they have assembled, now seems like as good a time as any. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Why They Will Trade With the Twins Let's be honest: The Blue Jays' biggest need is pitching. If they want to add to their offensive strength, however, there's one name that sticks out as a natural fit, and that's Justin Morneau. He's Canadian, his prodigious power would play well in Toronto's hitter-friendly stadium and Toronto is hurting at first base. Adam Lind, a former top prospect whose lack of progress in the majors is alarming given that he's now 28, was outrighted to the minors at the end of May with a .185/.271/.311 hitting line and went unclaimed on waivers. He crushed in Triple-A and was recalled this week, but the organization can't be feeling a ton of confidence in him. They are, of course, well aware of the lingering issues Morneau has experienced from a concussion he suffered in their ballpark, not to mention his pesky wrist problems, and they have to be put off by his struggles against lefties. But a recent report stated that the club is "very interested" in Minnesota's first baseman. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Let's be honest: The Blue Jays' biggest need is pitching. Toronto ranks third in the AL in runs scored, second in homers and fourth in OPS. Conversely, they rank 10th in ERA, 11th in WHIP and dead last in K/BB ratio. To make a dent in their offense-heavy division, they need to add some impact arms. Savvy GM Alex Anthopoulos isn't likely be enticed by names such as Carl Pavano or Nick Blackburn, so Terry Ryan's best hope for a match might be Francisco Liriano continuing his dominant run into July or Matt Capps returning with a vengeance. The Jays' rotation has been depleted by injuries and they would love a front line caliber starter to complement Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow; meanwhile their closer situation is iffy given that they had to replace ineffective veteran Francisco Cordero with Casey Janssen about a month into the season and Sergio Santos has been hurt. The problem isn't that the Twins don't have arms that could entice Toronto, it's that the Blue Jays aren't likely to part with quality pitching in a trade and that's surely what the Twins will be seeking. Intriguing options like Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison are mired on the DL for the foreseeable future. Conclusion The Blue Jays have needs that the Twins can address, especially if Liriano and Capps can improve their stock in the coming weeks while the Twins' slim chances of contending fade further. Can Anthopoulos offer up a package that will address Minnesota's long-term needs, though? It's worth noting that there's a history of deadline dealing between the two clubs, though it was nearly a decade ago that Bobby Kielty and Shannon Stewart were swapped. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Jake Marisnick - OF Top prospect Anthony Gose, currently 21 and hitting well at Triple-A, might not be attainable, but his presence in Toronto's system creates some redundancy with Marisnick, another 21-year-old who is currently in High-A and possesses a nice power/speed combo. The Twins have a number of outfield prospects but Marisnick is a notch better than most and would provide more flexibility to trade from an area of depth. Noah Syndergaard - RHP A big 6'5" starter drafted as a supplemental first-round pick in 2010, Syndergaard has a highly acclaimed fastball and it's helped him rack up 64 strikeouts (with only 15 walks) in 48 2/3 innings for Low-A Lansing this year. He's only 19, but offers more upside than perhaps any starter in Minnesota's system. Justin Nicolino - LHP If the Twins fancy a left-hander, Nicolino may catch their eye. He was selected one round after Syndergaard and he's had similarly strong results as a pro, going 9-2 with a 1.37 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 128-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 118 innings between this season and last. Either young hurler would would be tough to pry away, but would be a worthy prize. Joel Carreno - RHP The pitching prospects mentioned above are both fairly far from the majors, but if the Twins are looking for a more immediate impact they could take a look at Carreno. He's 25 and he's already got some big-league experience, having made a handful of MLB appearances both last year and this year. He's struggled quite a bit with Toronto this year and he's 25, but those factors may increase Toronto's willingness to move him and there remains plenty of upside in his arm. In the minors, he has piled up 690 strikeouts in 647 innings. Carlos Perez - C Travis d'Arnaud is Toronto's best prospect and won't be touched, but the Twins may have a shot at another young backstop. Perez, 21, is thought to have the defensive skills to play catcher in the majors, and he's displayed solid power and plate discipline this year in the Midwest League. The righty swinger would give the Twins another option to eventually replace, or at least caddy with, Joe Mauer behind the plate. Please add your thoughts and trade ideas (and other names the Twins could pursue) in the comments below! Click here to view the article

Download attachment: aaron-hicks.jpg Likely Starter: Aaron Hicks 2012 Stats (AA): .286/.384/.460, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 100 R Potential Backups: Darin Mastroianni, Joe Benson Those who were eager to see an intense and compelling spring competition for the starting center field job have surely been disappointed. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Aaron Hicks was the front-runner before camp got underway and then took firm hold of the job with his truly stellar exhibition performance. Joe Benson was demoted to the minors after struggling, and Darin Mastroianni has played well but has missed time. On Sunday, Ron Gardenhire made official what was already apparent: Hicks is going to be his center fielder and leadoff man on Opening Day. This brings a mix of excitement and uncertainty, with no shortage of either. Hicks is coming off an excellent season in Double-A, but he hasn't taken a single regular-season at-bat above that level, and hasn't always been a dominant offensive player in the minors. At various times, the switch hitter has been overly strikeout prone, has struggled to produce from the left side of the plate, and has been baffled by the adjustments of opposing pitchers. Those are real concerns when we're talking about a 23-year-old who's going to be thrown directly into the fire. But through all his ups and downs, Hicks has always exhibited a keenly discerning eye at the plate, along with terrific defense in center field. Those traits have been on display this month in Florida, and when you get past the (possibly fluky) power display and the general buzz surrounding him, they're likely the biggest factors in the club's willingness to have him bypass Triple-A and begin accruing MLB service time immediately. The wisdom of that decision can be questioned, but here's the bottom line: If Hicks struggles in his transition to the majors, he'll be sent to Triple-A knowing specifically what he needs to work on. At that point Mastroianni can ably take over and Hicks' service clock will pause, nullifying the entire concern. If Hicks doesn't get sent down at any point, it'll mean he's figuring things out and we'll probably all be too pleased to fret about manageable long-term ramifications. While Hicks has wrangled in the majority of attention this spring, Mastroianni has done nothing to play his way out of the conversation. The speedster is batting .364 and is 7-for-8 on stolen base attempts. His penchants for getting on base and creating terror once there have made him a scrappy asset, and with his defensive versatility he's an ideal fit as a fourth outfielder. The Twins seem aware of that, and they're content to keep him in that role while Hicks takes the spotlight. The progress of the rising young center fielder will be a central storyline in Minneapolis this year, and a similar one will play out four hours south, where elite prospect Byron Buxton figures to line up in Cedar Rapids. It says an awful lot about the state of the position in this organization that the team can trade away two valuable MLB center fielders during an offseason, then immediately plug in a rookie who has a chance to be better than either, but who himself might just be keeping the spot warm for one of the game's most heralded prospects. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: baker.jpg It didn't come as a surprise that Scott Baker signed a contract just a couple weeks into this offseason. He's not the first recognizable pitcher to come off the board, as Bartolo Colon and Hisashi Iwakuma preceded him. Baker is, however, the first to land with a new team. And I think that does come as a surprise to a lot of people, given the Twins' well publicized efforts to bring him back. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Baker didn't spend much time testing the open market, as his new one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Cubs was announced Tuesday. Including an additional $1.5 million in incentives, it's undeniably a great deal for the 31-year-old right-hander, and one that the Twins were wise not to try and match (assuming he gave them the chance). Baker is a very good pitcher when healthy, but he's eclipsed 175 innings only once in his career and guaranteeing him $5.5 million in his first season back from major elbow surgery – despite a saturated pitching market – seems crazy to me. The Cubs didn't even mitigate their risk by including a team option that might get them a bargain in 2014. Many pitchers don't return to full strength until their second year back from Tommy John. It's natural to wonder what led the hurler to sign elsewhere so quickly. People will inevitably think back to the weird exchanges that took place between Baker and Twins coaches when he was complaining of elbow soreness back in the spring. Was there friction there? He certainly didn't move on to the Cubs because winning was his highest priority, so there's a temptation to ascribe motives. Why would he ditch the organization that raised him, even if an extra million or two was being offered by another club? To me, this is a case where Baker just wanted to do what was best for him, and it's hard to argue with his decision. He's already 31 and won't have many more chances for a big payday. So, coming off surgery, he jumps on the chance to earn a nice guaranteed sum throwing in the more pitcher-friendly National League for a season. He's not tied down past next year so he'll have a chance to hit the market again after hopefully proving that his surgery was a success. Good for him. Meanwhile, the Twins quickly lose out on one of their most accessible options and have to readjust their plans after probably expecting they'd be able to bring Baker back. Your move, TR. Click here to view the article