Nick Nelson

Download attachment: mauer3.jpg Exactly five weeks after he last played in a game, the Minnesota Twins announced on Monday that Joe Mauer would be shut down for the remainder of the season. The decision has seemed obvious and inevitable ever since it was revealed the catcher was still suffering symptoms weeks after sustaining a concussion while behind the plate. Ultimately, the incident will end up costing Mauer 39 games, or roughly a quarter of the season. In other words, this is a serious brain injury. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The Twins have understandably tried to downplay the severity of the issue by insisting there have been no setbacks and stubbornly maintaining that he'd be back before season's end, but that's the reality we're facing. And here's another reality we must face: Mauer's days of catching are done. Despite major strides in recent years, we still don't know a whole lot about concussions. But here are a couple things we do know: they can be debilitating -- both professionally and personally -- and they are much more likely to be suffered by those with a history of having them before. The risk of Mauer experiencing another blow may not have been quite so worrisome had August's incident proven to be relatively minor, but that's far from the case. Five weeks after his brain was shaken by the fateful foul tip, Mauer still has not engaged in any baseball activities and still reports symptoms such as sensitivity to light and noise. Even if the complications clear up completely during the offseason and Mauer reports to spring training at 100 percent, there's still no way that a return to catching duties would be palatable. No position in baseball exposes the head to more frequent potential trauma than catcher, where batted balls to the mask and full-body collisions are part of the job description. Mauer is one of at least six backstops to be diagnosed with a concussion resulting from a foul tip this year, joining Detroit's Alex Avila, Kansas City's Salvador Perez, New York's Austin Romine, Houston's Carlos Corporan and Minnesota's own Ryan Doumit. If he ends up back at catcher, Mauer and Twins fans will live in a constant state of apprehension every time a ball is deflected back into his mask. Of course, the risk doesn't disappear if Mauer switches positions. Justin Morneau notably re-triggered his concussion symptoms when he made a diving attempt for a ball at first base more than a year after his July 2010 injury. But clearly the danger is far greater behind the plate at the game's most punishing position, one which has been mostly responsible for Mauer missing an average of 44 games per season in his career. Now, in fairness, I've been a proponent of moving Mauer away from catcher for two years, so I might be more predisposed to this conclusion than most. My original concern stemmed more from the condition of his legs than of his head, but these are both areas subjected to significant wear and tear. We know all too well how concussions can linger and relapse almost at random. We've seen it up close with Morneau and from afar with Corey Koskie, Jason Bay, Brian Roberts and countless others. Mauer, who will be integral to any return to contention within the next handful of years, is already going to be a sensitive enough case. Even without accounting for the percentage of payroll they dedicate to him, how can the Twins justify putting him back at a position where he's essentially guaranteed to take a jarring hit to the mask every other game, and maybe worse? I don't think they can, and with the precedent set by Morneau fresh in their minds, I suspect they know that. Posturing about the organization's intent to fulfill Mauer's wish of continuing to catch full-time is just that. He's too valuable to the franchise -- monetarily and otherwise -- for such an undeniably substantial risk. Click here to view the article

The Twins played their unofficial first game of the spring on Thursday -- a 'B' game against the Red Sox at Hammond Field. Obviously, you can't put much stock into what goes on during exhibition contests – particularly an informal affair such as this one – but one performance that stuck out to me was that of Carlos Gutierrez, who struggled through two-thirds of an inning and raised the ire of his manager. Pitching in relief against a lineup filled with Boston backups, Gutierrez issued three walks and a two-run double, managing to record just two outs before the inning was cut short. Ron Gardenhire was none too pleased: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Gardenhire doesn't call players out this candidly in the media very often, but I've noticed that oftentimes he'll do it when he's frustrated and disappointed because his expectations weren't met. I think this is one such instant. Gutierrez is a guy the Twins are looking at to carry weight in their patchwork bullpen this season. I listed him as one of four key players to watch in my Spring Training Preview last month. Drafted out of college in the first round four years ago, now is the time for him to be stepping up. Download attachment: CarlosGutierrez.jpg Yet, while he's got the stuff to profile as a solid reliever, his control continues to lag behind. Last year in Rochester, Gutierrez averaged a career-best 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but that came with 31 walks in 62 frames. He's always given up a fair amount of hits, so it seems unlikely that Gutierrez will be a real asset in the bullpen unless he can significantly reduce the number of free passes. Thursday's outing doesn't provide a great deal of encouragement on that front, but it's still very early and hopefully Gardenhire was right when he said the erratic performance might have been attributable to nerves. Click here to view the article

* The Twins' lineup on Tuesday looked an awful lot like one we might see in the regular season, and that makes sense since we're less than two weeks from Opening Day and everyone was rested following a rainout on Monday. I asked Ron Gardenhire after the game if we should make anything out of Alex Presley's presence in center field with this group of potential regulars. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] "Gotta play everybody," he said, downplaying any significance. "Gotta see how they do against lefties, that's why he was out there tonight." From my view, Aaron Hicks should still be viewed as the favorite to win the job, especially since Darin Mastroianni isn't a factor and Wilkin Ramirez is less-than-ideal as the sole CF backup. But keep in mind that Hicks missed time with an injury this spring and hasn't yet shown that he can dominate Triple-A pitching. I know a lot of fans scoff at the notion of Presley in the lineup to start the season, but he's proven to be a decent hitter in the majors. Just because he's not the most exciting choice doesn't make him the wrong choice, at least not initially. Remember: even if Hicks starts in Rochester, he's only a phone call away. * For what it's worth, Rob Antony offered up a pretty frank assessment of the battle between Hicks and Presley for the center field job: "Hicks hasn’t been anything special this spring. Neither has Presley. There’s your center field battle." * Rather than follow Gardenhire and Co. on the three-hour trip to Jupiter, I stayed back in Ft. Myers today to chat with some of the remaining players and watch Mike Pelfrey, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton throw on the minor-league side. They all looked fine. * Also in the stands for the Single-A game that featured Burton and Perkins was a familiar smiling face. Miguel Sano, exactly one week removed from his Tommy John surgery, was shouting encouragement in Spanish and joking with friends. As you can see, he's sporting a massive cast on his right arm: Download attachment: sano319.jpg * You can see some more newly uploaded photos from around the complex over at the Twins Daily Facebook page. Make sure to give us a "Like" to follow all the action! * In Jupiter, Kyle Gibson started against the Cardinals and was outstanding, allowing just one run on a solo homer over 4 1/3 innings. He struck out four and walked none, inducing seven ground ball outs. Samuel Deduno came on in the sixth and cruised through two innings before running into some trouble in the eighth, when he allowed a couple runs on two doubles and two walks. His ERA this spring still sits at 2.19. Deduno still hasn't made a start or pitched more than three innings in an outing this spring, so it seems like he's destined for the bullpen. Based on performance, and talent, Gibson should probably be the leading contender in the battle for the fifth rotation spot, but I still have a hard time seeing it. The Twins simply don't have much to lose by sending him to Rochester for a few weeks. That said, Scott Diamond has to be feeling a little pressure as he prepares to take the mound against the Rays in Port Charlotte tomorrow night. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: arciaswing.jpg Here in the Twin Cities, there's about a foot of fresh snow on the ground. Fortunately, the Twins won't be trying to open their season here for a few more days. However, it's also a rainy day in Cleveland, calling into question whether the Twins and Indians will get in their first matchup of the season at Progressive Field. Either way, you can come escape from all the harsh realities of early April weather and join me for a live interactive chat here at 2:00 PM today (Friday). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If there's a game going on, I'll offer insights and observations to those who are stuck at work and can't watch. Otherwise it will simply be an open conversation about the opening week. Share thoughts, ask questions or vent frustrations. Whatever your flavor, please join us! Click here to view the article

Download attachment: bronsonarroyo.jpg Monday's Rumor Mill Round-Up included an update on Bronson Arroyo, who was set to meet with multiple teams -- including the Twins -- at this week's Winter Meetings. I judged the probability of a match being rather low, largely because I guessed the local club would cease to be aggressive bidders for a free agent of Arroyo's caliber after committing nearly $75 million Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, but Ken Rosenthal tweeted later in the day that the Twins were indeed making a push and that talks were "gaining momentum." [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] I'm still far from convinced that a deal will go down, but there's no denying the appearance of legitimate interest here. So what do the Twins see in Arroyo that would keep them involved even after adding two significant free agents to the mix? For precedence, I look to another veteran pitcher who was mentioned in Monday's round-up: Carl Pavano. It's no secret the Twins loved having Pavano around. After acquiring him from the Indians during the 2009 season, they kept him aboard in 2010 with a $7 million arbitration agreement and then re-signed him to a two-year, $16 million contract in the ensuing offseason. At the time, that was a massive free agent deal by their standards, and it pushed the 2011 payroll to a record $112 million. Pavano had earned the commitment with an outstanding 2010 campaign in which he went 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA over 221 innings, delivering seven complete games and two shutouts while helping lead a staff that dominated the AL Central. Clearly the Twins valued that effective durability very highly, and they probably value it even more in hindsight given what's transpired over the past couple years. Let's compare Pavano's 2010 to Arroyo's average output with the Reds over the past two seasons: Pavano, 2010: 221 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 Arroyo, 2012/13 (avg): 202 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 Those are very, very similar numbers. Much like Pavano, Arroyo is a veteran strike-thrower who has been reliable for 200-plus innings and has posted above-average core numbers. When the Twins re-signed Pavano in 2011, he was a 35-year-old with a fastball in the high 80s; Arroyo is presently a 36-year-old with a fastball in the high 80s. In a clear attempt to overhaul their shoddy rotation, the Twins have already added two established hurlers with a chance to make a real impact, but it appears they're still seeking a very veteran anchor for a group in which, even with Nolasco added, youth still rules the day. Arroyo is a risk for the many of the same reasons Pavano was a risk -- he's aging, his velocity is declining and he doesn't miss too many bats. But Arroyo also has a much more consistent history of durability and success. In many ways, he can be viewed as a rich man's Pavano, which might explain why the Twins are once again ready to step beyond their normal limits to pursue him. Click here to view the article

He's at it again. Chris Parmelee's 2012 season could be looked at in two different ways. On the one hand, you had a rookie hitter who looked overwhelmed against major-league pitching. On the other hand, you had a 24-year-old absolutely demolishing in his first exposure to Triple-A pitching. He was far and away the best hitter in the International League that year. He followed up with a 2013 season that was simply a mess, both in the majors and the minors, and as a result he was outrighted from the 40-man roster this spring. He passed through waivers (somewhat surprisingly, from my view) and now he's back in Rochester. Once again he is looking fantastic at the plate. In 29 games for the Red Wings, Parmelee is hitting .327/.398/.589 with seven homers, seven doubles, 23 RBI and a solid 20/13 K/BB ratio. On Sunday he went 3-for-5 with two bombs and five RBI. He has a .939 lifetime OPS at the Triple-A level. He has mastered it. The problem is that he hasn't proven to be a good enough hitter in the majors. Since an impressive September call-up in 2011, Parmelee has hit .228/.302/.364 in 186 games with the Twins, and that's pretty terrible production for a guy who offers almost no defensive value. Because of the disparity between his numbers in Triple-A and the majors, many have branded Parmelee as a "AAAA player" -- a tweener who's too good for the minors but not quite good enough for the show. Maybe that's what he is, but it seems too soon to affix that label. Download attachment: parmelee1.jpg Keep in mind: Parmelee is still only 26 years old. That's one year younger than Trevor Plouffe, who finally seems to be turning the corner now. And although he's been given several different opportunities with the Twins, Parmelee's MLB experience amounts to 631 plate appearances, which is barely more than one full season's worth. There's a saying that you don't know what you have in a player until he's reached the 1,000-AB threshold in the majors. Parmelee isn't close to that yet, and I'd say some extra patience is warranted in his case considering his age, his status as a former first-round pick and his domination at the highest level of the minors. It's too soon to give up on him being a useful piece. The problem, of course, is that there's no room for him on the major-league roster. The Twins already have Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Chris Colabello and Pinto occupying the DH/corner outfielder mix, with Oswaldo Arcia set to return shortly and Josh Willingham not far behind. If Mauer's back injury forces him to the disabled list, it's possible the Twins could bring Parmelee back into the fold. He probably wouldn't be in line for regular playing time, at least not right away, but he could be plugged in against some righties with the opportunity to earn a regular gig. That would be a very beneficial development for the Twins. At the end of the day, regardless of your feelings about Parmelee, he still probably has a better chance to be a long-term asset for this club than Colabello or Kubel. At a time when every decision ought to be made with the future in mind, at least to some extent, that needs to be a primary consideration. What do you think? What should the Twins do with Parmelee? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: revereswing.jpg Trading established players for prospects is the sign of a rebuilding team, and that is certainly what we've seen from Terry Ryan with his first few major moves this offseason. Many casual fans have expressed outrage over trades that sent Denard Span and Ben Revere – cornerstones in the Minnesota outfield – to the NL East for young pitching geared more toward the big picture than immediate improvement. The two prizes acquired in these deals, Alex Meyer and Trevor May, both have what it takes to become true assets in the rotation. In all likelihood it won't happen in 2013, which is understandably frustrating for fans who are tired of all the losing and are yearning for short-term gains.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] However, the presence of Vance Worley cannot be ignored. He's an established major-league pitcher, and while he's probably more serviceable than great, he fills one of the club's several rotation vacancies at essentially no cost. Assuming that ownership is serious about keeping payroll steady, that leaves Ryan with around $20-25 million to spend on starters who can make a more immediate impact. Adding a pair of $10 million pitchers on top of Diamond and Worley, even in this inflated market, would greatly change the complexion of the starting corps. The rotation is not going to suddenly become an asset -- that was never really a possibility -- but could be good enough to compete, and there's always the chance that Meyer or May will perform well enough in the minors to become a late-season option. To get themselves into this vastly preferable position with the pitching staff while retaining plenty of financial flexibility, the Twins had to part with a pair of valuable and likable players. But Darin Mastroianni ought to be an adequate placeholder and a guy like Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Arcia could very well step in and make fans quickly forget about the previous tenants. Having lost nearly 200 games over the last two seasons, this team was in need of a major shake-up, and we're seeing it. There's no doubt that it hurts to lose players we've grown to love and appreciate, but at the end of the day the GM has dealt away from a position of depth to address a position of crippling weakness. I have held fast to my stance that the best approach for the Twins at this time is to make a modest but meaningful effort at returning to contention next year, with an eye toward the organization's long-term health. After two savvy trades, Ryan is in position to do just that. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: pelfrey1.jpg On Saturday, the news we've been expecting for weeks finally arrived: the Twins have agreed to terms with Mike Pelfrey on a two-year contract. Ever since it was initially reported back in November that Minnesota had made a multi-year bid for the right-hander, there has been little question that a reunion was in store because, frankly, it seemed unlikely any other team would match. The move has been met with criticism from many fans and analysts[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], which is unsurprising considering that Pelfrey pitched quite poorly in his first year with the club. I expected to experience that same feeling of antipathy when the signing was inevitably announced. And yet... I am not. To be clear, I'm not a big fan of Pelfrey. Watching him pitch is a grind because he works slowly and uses tons of pitches. For the game-watching fan, he's kind of a drag. But that's secondary to the results he achieves. Those haven't been good either, of course, at least not since he put up a 3.66 ERA over 204 innings back in 2010. I didn't like the contract given to Pelfrey last year because I saw little upside in a one-year deal for a guy who wasn't great to begin with and was only 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery. The best-case scenario was that Pelf would get off to a rough start and come around during the latter part of the season boosting his own value going forward. That did happen, to some extent. The righty endured a miserable first two months, getting tagged for a 6.66 ERA and .907 OPS while completing six innings just twice in 11 starts. But he looked noticeably better from May through September, turning in a 4.44 ERA while allowing only seven homers in 101 innings. The overall numbers are far from dazzling, but that's why Pelfrey was available at such a low price. And at that price ($11 million plus incentives over two years), he stands a good chance of being a solid value for the back end of the rotation. Here are a couple key things to keep in mind: He revved his fastball back up to the mid-90s in 2013 despite being less than a year removed from elbow surgery, and on the season he posted a career-high 6.0 K/9 rate (including 6.7 in the final four months). Anyone who had become entangled in thoughts of a top-flight talent like Matt Garza is surely disappointed, but in my mind those reports were never realistic. The Twins weren't going to sign another pitcher to a four/five-year deal worth potentially upwards of $75 million after already committing that amount to a pair of hurlers in November. Those printed rumors struck me as a classic example of media being leveraged in negotiations -- either by the Twins (trying to motivate Pelfrey to sign) or by Garza's agent (trying to drum up the market). Once Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes were on board, I sincerely doubt Terry Ryan was ever truly interested in adding Garza, or Masahiro Tanaka, or even Bronson Arroyo (who, at 36, simply doesn't fit as well with the organization's contention timeline as Pelfrey, who is still 29). Not at the prices they are going to eventually command. In all likelihood, the Twins are now done shopping for starting pitching. No one is going to look at their rotation -- which will include Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Kevin Correia and one returning arm -- and be blown away, but this group is a far more stable one than we've seen the past few years. The first four names are all experienced hurlers who made at least 29 starts in the majors last year. Leaving only one spot open puts the Twins in a position where they can pick the best of their internal candidates rather than counting on total question marks to fill multiple holes. I know it's hard to get excited about Pelfrey based on what we've seen. But it's important to view him for what he is: an inexpensive back-end piece whose contract won't constrict the Twins much in terms of years or money. And while last year's deal carried little upside, there's more to be found in this one. If Pelf can build on the things he did in the second half of 2013, he could turn out to be a pretty damn good value at around $7 million per year in his age 30 and 31 seasons. Click here to view the article

Buyers or Sellers? The Reds have all the makings of an aggressive deadline buyer. They entered the season with high expectations and a large payroll, and as we move into mid-July they are within four games of first place in a division that looks winnable. They also have some clear needs that ought to be addressed if they hope to overcome the Pirates and Cardinals in the final months. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: cincinnati-reds.jpg What They Need Unfortunately, the most glaring of those needs is a right-handed masher. The best hitters in Cincy's lineup -- Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Shin-Soo Choo -- all bat from the left side. Ryan Ludwick was expected to add punch from the opposite side but he suffered a major shoulder injury in April and won't return until at least mid-August. With Ludwick absent most the year, the Reds have gotten an ugly .234/.305/.354 hitting line from their left fielders. Clearly, Josh Willingham would have been a potential fit here, so the timing of his injury is unfortunate. Trevor Plouffe's right-handed pop could be of some interest, but the Reds already have a fairly similar third baseman in Todd Frazier. Another area where Cincinnati might be looking for deadline help, like most contenders, is the bullpen. The closer spot is already anchored by Aroldis Chapman, who might be the only left-handed reliever in baseball more dominant than Glen Perkins, but the Reds could use some help in the middle innings. Setup men Jonathan Broxton and Sean Marshall have been mired on the disabled list, and with Tony Cingrani's return to the rotation, Manny Parra is now the only southpaw available beyond Chapman. What Might Work Cincinnati's clearest need (that the Twins can help with) is a reliever who can be counted in high-leverage innings, preferably a lefty. The Reds probably won't pay the price for Perkins since they already have a closer, but Brian Duensing might make sense. Jared Burton or Casey Fien may also hold some appeal, as GM Walt Jocketty would likely welcome impact bullpen help in any form. Sleeper Targets J.J. Hoover - RHP - MLB - 25 years old If the Reds are willing to swap young promise for certified experience, Hoover could be in play. He's a rising young relief star with big stuff, but he's got some command problems and is mostly unproven. If the Reds were to try and make a play for Perkins, you'd have to imagine that Hoover -- a potential closer down the road -- would be involved. Daniel Corcino - RHP - Triple-A - 22 years old Corcino was viewed as a fringe Top 100 prospect coming into this year but he has come off the tracks in Triple-A, where he holds a 6.72 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 56/43 K/BB ratio in 83 innings. He definitely looks like a fixer-upper project, and he's young enough that it might be worthwhile. Jon Moscot - RHP - High-A - 21 years old A fourth-round pick out of Pepperdine University in the 2012 draft, Moscot impressed in his rookie-ball debut last year but has seemingly stalled out in Single-A, with a 1-11 record and 5.10 ERA. However, his solid peripherals (1.36 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 85 IP) tell a much different story. He's known as a strike-throwing ground ball guy in the Twins' mold, so he'd be a logical buy-low target. Ismael Guillon - LHP - Low-A - 21 years old Interesting upside, major control problems. Over 69 2/3 innings in Low-A this season, Guillon has piled up 84 strikeouts along with 67 walks. That's nearly a walk per inning. Dream Target Robert Stephenson - RHP - Low-A - 20 years old Stephenson was taken three picks ahead of Levi Michael in the 2011 draft. He emerged as a prominent pitching prospect with a strong pro debut last year, and has continued to build his stock by dominating the Midwest League this season, with a 2.97 ERA and 85/17 K/BB ratio in 66 2/3 frames. Among pitchers with 60 or more innings in the MWL, Stephenson's 11.5 K/9 rate leads the way (J.O. Berrios, at 10.7, ranks third). With Billy Hamilton scuffling in Triple-A, Stephenson might be Cincinnati's top prospect. That means he won't be going anywhere for less than a king's ransom. Click here to view the article

First, the most important news: Twins GM Terry Ryan was in the building today, the first time he's been present at Hammond all spring after being diagnosed with cancer in the offseason. Ryan was in good spirits during a 15-minute session with reporters, stating that he's "feeling pretty damn good right now." Ryan, who is only in town for a day and a half, said that he's been going to radiation five days a week, and that he will continue to do so for the next five weeks.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For at least the first part of April, he will only be attending Twins home games. He expressed confidence that once he's past the radiation period he'll be ready to return in a full capacity. "I'm optimistic that things are heading in the right direction, there's no doubt about that," Ryan said. It was an extremely eventful day at the ballpark, so let's dive in to some notes: * Ron Gardenhire was unhappy with what he considered premature reports that the team has settled on Kyle Gibson as the fifth starter, insisting that no final decision has been made. Gardenhire and assistant general manager Rob Antony emphasized that Scott Diamond -- who will piggyback on Gibson's next start on Tuesday -- is still in the mix to round out the rotation. Antony did acknowledge that Samuel Deduno is likely headed for the bullpen. * Gardy on Vance Worley, who cleared waivers Friday and was outrighted to Triple-A Rochester: "He had a decent angle going here. As I told him the other day when I saw him in the bullpen, every pitch looks the same. I can't tell the difference between his fastball, his slider and his curveball -- they're all hard. When you do that, guys are on that." * The Twins fell to the Mets 9-1 on Friday, the second lopsided loss this week here at Hammond. On Tuesday it was 2013 Opening Day starter Worley who put the Twins in an early hole, and Friday it was 2014 Opening Day starter Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco's first inning was about as bad as could be. The right-hander yielded seven runs on six hits -- three doubles, a triple, a homer and a single -- while also hitting a batter and uncorking a wild pitch. Despite the awful results, Nolasco was relatively upbeat following the outing. "First inning was pretty terrible. I think I could've done better if I told them what was coming," he joked. "It's just spring training, whatever. You just bounce back. I thought I finished pretty decent the next two innings." That he did. Nolasco didn't allow a run or a hit in the second and third, although he did issue a couple walks. By all accounts he looked solid in his first three outings, in which he allowed only four runs in 11 innings, so I'm inclined to not put a ton of stock into this one. Still, he'll probably want to get back on track in his final Grapefruit start next week to gain a little steam before he opens the season for the Twins on March 31st. * Nolasco worked with catcher Josmil Pinto for the first time on Friday. He insisted that working with the young backstop had nothing to do with his struggles. "He did fine," said Nolasco. "He has nothing to do with the way I throw the ball." "He did a good job of trying to motivate me and get me back in there." * Pinto had another nice game offensively. He went 1-for-3 but one of his outs was a laser beam hit directly at the first baseman. You like to see that from a right-handed hitter; Pinto continues to impress with his ability to go the other way. "Pinto's doing just fine, doing everything we're asking," Ron Gardenhire said. "He works very hard. He's paying attention and studying the game pretty damn hard. He's a strong kid." * One day after Aaron Hicks went 4-for-4 in Port Charlotte to raise his spring average to .375, Alex Presley started in center field and finished 0-for-3, dropping his average to .147. He did have a walk and a stolen base, but he's been unable to get his bat going. We all know that decisions shouldn't be made solely on the basis of spring training stats, but Hicks is plainly the superior talent and he's backing it up. * Michael Tonkin is the best relief prospect in the organization, and he was outstanding once again while handling the sixth and seventh innings. Flashing a fastball that registered at 94-95 MPH, Tonkin induced plenty of weak contact while holding the Mets off the board. In 8 1/3 innings this spring, Tonkin has allowed only three hits and no runs. He deserves a spot in the Minnesota bullpen but I suspect that, if indeed Gibson is tabbed as fifth starter, the Twins will try and stick both Deduno and Diamond in the bullpen, leaving no room. If Tonkin opens in Rochester, he'll almost surely be the first righty reliever called up when a need arises. And he might immediately become the best one on the club. * It's going to be a zoo here at Hammond Stadium tomorrow, when Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees roll through. Terry Ryan will be in attendance and said he's excited to see Tanaka pitch for the first time. As has been the case all month, Twins Daily will have all the action covered. Download attachment: hammond321.jpg Click here to view the article

Age: 19 (DOB: 2/10/93) 2012 Stats APPY: 59 G, .297/.387/.539, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 40 R, 7/7 SB ETA: 2017 By the time he's done playing, Max Kepler might be known as one of the greatest major-league hitters ever to come out of Europe. And he's the tenth-best prospect for the Twins? That seems crazy. But take a look at this all-time European All-Star team that Dave Schoenfield put together a couple years ago. There are some good careers in there, but unless you're a real hardcore, you might not recognize a name other than Bert Blyleven (who lived in the Netherlands for all of two years). Clearly, the continent hasn't been a traditional pipeline for baseball talent. But the Twins saw something they liked in the 16-year-old Kepler out of Germany, and handed him the largest bonus ever for a European ($800,000) just after the window opened for international signings in 2009. It was a bold move made possible by an unprecedented spending spree for the Twins – one that led to Miguel Sano's signing a few months later. And while the slugging Dominican gets all the fanfare, the aggressive bid on Kepler is quickly beginning to pay dividends as well. The Good Kepler adjusted slowly to the professional ranks. That's understandable for a high school aged kid acclimating to a new country. But last year he turned a corner in his second turn at Elizabethton, pacing the Appalachian League with a .539 slugging percentage and markedly improving his plate discipline. The lefty-swinging outfielder has a well rounded skill set with the abilities to run, catch and hit for both average and power. The son of two prominent ballet dancers, he's an athletically gifted kid who is already listed at 6'4" as a teenager. When he first signed with the Twins, Baseball America's Ben Badler picked up the following tidbit: His emergence last year is a sign that the on-field performance may be catching up with the innate ability. When that happens to guys with such immense physical upside, stars are born. The Bad The big numbers in E-town were eye-catching, but they came on the heels of two pedestrian efforts to launch his pro career. In 2010 Kepler posted a .689 OPS in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League and in 2011 he registered a .714 mark after stepping up to the Appy League. Between the two partial seasons, he totaled one home run while whiffing at a 22 percent rate. As mentioned above, it's hard to hold those struggles against him because he was 17 and 18, and he blew all previous numbers out of the water last year. Still, it bears noting that he was repeating the same level and – thanks to his early start – was more experienced in the pro ranks than much of his competition. The Bottom Line Kepler has all the physical tools to be a quality major-league outfielder and last year at Elizabethton he backed them up with outstanding production. He remains on the fringe of our Top 10 because much uncertainty surrounds him yet, but a successful transition to full-season ball in Cedar Rapids this year would have him propelling up this list. View full article

* The Twins rank third in the American League in run-scoring, which is pretty surprising on its own but even more so when you consider that Joe Mauer has chipped in very little thus far. I certainly don't mean to contribute to the typical Mauer panic that arises any time he goes through any kind of slump, but the slow start is noteworthy. Early on, he's striking out way more than ever before (27 percent K-rate) yet hitting for no power (three extra-base hits and a .321 slugging percentage in 90 plate appearances). In fact, dating back to spring training, Mauer has 33 hits and 29 of them are singles. That's not going to help change his reputation as a "singles hitter" and it's also the opposite of what most of us were hoping to see with the transition away from catcher. As he's reminded us many times before, Mauer is the kind of hitter who can go on a week-long hot streak that will make us forget all about stretches like this one, but it bears noting that his current OPS -- at .677 -- is the lowest it's ever been at this point in the season outside of 2011. * Mike Pelfrey's struggles this month have been sort of bizarre. It's not really peculiar to see him pitching poorly -- that's happened plenty before -- but I find the nature of the hardships strange. Typically, as a pitcher moves further away from Tommy John surgery he tends to gain velocity and sharpen his command. Over time, the scar tissue heals, the arm strengthens and the pitcher regains a feel for his pitches. That has not been the case for Pelfrey. Last April, while making an incredibly quick return from his elbow operation, Pelf was ineffective but he was throwing strikes and his fastball was registering in the mid-90s. This year his velocity has dropped with each start, to the point where in his last outing he flashed his lowest radar readings in the last three years while also issuing five walks and throwing only 52 percent of his pitches for strikes. Last year he issued four or more walks twice in 29 starts. He's now done it in both of his last two. Pelfrey claims that he's "not panicking" but it seems pretty clear that something isn't right. I've generally been in favor of giving him (and any other starter signed beyond this year) a long leash, but the Twins can't justify continuing to feed him starts if he's throwing like this. From my view, this isn't a "send him to the bullpen" situation. This is a "stick him on the DL and figure out what the heck is wrong with his arm" situation. Maybe that happens if we see similar results on Wednesday night. * With Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia both on the disabled list, Josmil Pinto has taken over as the regular DH and has made good on the opportunity by flashing some prodigious power. Download attachment: pinto.jpg Photo by Peter Aiken, USA TODAY Sports Pinto is batting just .239, but his slugging percentage is at .522 thanks to four homers and a double in 60 plate appearances. Among big-leaguers with 50+ PA, he ranks fifth in Isolated Power (SLG minus AVG). Just as encouraging as the early pop is Pinto's strike zone control. He has drawn 14 walks -- contributing to an outstanding .417 OBP -- against just 13 strikeouts. He looks terrific at the plate, which is one of the best developments possible in a season where the Twins are trying to figure out their future at catcher. Click here to view the article

The more I think about the swap that the Twins have made at the designated hitter position, the more I like it. By signing Jason Kubel to a non-guaranteed, incentive-laden contract and trading away Ryan Doumit's guaranteed $3.5 million salary, they have made a sound financial decision that could pay dividends on the field. But in doing so, they're also committing to a plan at the DH position that is shaky at best. Maybe that's not such a bad thing. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] While Kubel has never been able to replicate the offensive dominance he displayed in 2009, his career year, he has generally been a decent hitter since, with numbers that closely mirror Doumit's: Doumit (32), last four seasons: .264/.326/.429, 53 HR Kubel (31), last four seasons: .250/.322/.435, 68 HR Download attachment: jasonkubel.jpg Ostensibly Doumit gains an advantage because he is a switch-hitter and can serve as a backup catcher, but Kubel is younger and has shown the greater power potential. Besides, Doumit's ability to competently serve as a part-time catcher was in doubt even before this year's concussion issues further clouded matters. Both players are coming off down seasons at the plate, but Kubel's was unequivocally much worse. Therein lies the greatest concern. He batted .216/.293/.317 in stints with the Diamondbacks and Indians, and looked especially bad late in the year. His ability to make contact has rapidly deteriorated as he's aged: Year | K % ----------------------------- 2009 | 18% 2010 | 20% 2011 | 21% 2012 | 26% 2013 | 32% Kubel has proven to be a very good hitter at times, but he's an iffy gamble at this point, which is why the Twins have hedged their bets in his contract. He'll earn a guaranteed $2 million by joining the club out of spring training, and can add an additional $1 million through very reachable incentives. That means he stands to make $3 million -- virtually identical to Doumit's 2014 salary. This substitution wasn't about saving money. It was about mitigating risk and adding some intriguing upside to the DH mix. Clearly the Twins have given Kubel a strong indication he'll make the team -- he reportedly may have passed up a major-league deal to sign here -- but his contract is non-guaranteed for a reason. With his awful recent play and his ascending K-rates, it's difficult to have faith in a major turnaround. So what happens then? Well, even if Kubel is on the roster, he'll be sharing time at DH with a group of questionable fielders that could include Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello and others. If Kubel doesn't shake out, those guys would be in line for more starts at DH, potentially improving the defense by keeping them off the field. Of course, in that scenario, the Twins need to have backups who can not only provide a defensive upgrade but also hit enough to warrant semi-regular playing time. Unless they're sold on the likes of Darin Mastroianni, Alex Presley, Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana as players who can hold their own in somewhat prominent roles, the Twins should be scouring for backups and utility types who can offer some offensive value. But to even consider surrendering the money (and draft pick) that would be required to land a high-caliber bat like Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz would be silly. There's a sensible plan in place to start the season and if it doesn't work out players who can hit but have no defensive position are easy enough to find on the trade market or even the waiver wire. Click here to view the article

Baseball America, one of the most reputed publications in the nation for baseball prospect coverage, released its annual list of the Top 10 prospects in the Minnesota Twins organization earlier this week, courtesy of Mike Berardino. The list included a few surprises and some promising signs, such as the presence of five pitchers among the top eight names. One of those hurlers is Trevor May, who was ranked No. 8. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Baseball America released its last Top 10 for the Twins in November of 2012, before May was acquired from the Phillies, so we can't make a straight year-to-year comparison. But it's worth noting that the right-hander ranked ninth on the Twins Daily Top 10 list prior to the 2013 season, so BA ranking him eighth among a deep and strong system indicates that his stock is at least holding steady in the eyes of many. Download attachment: trevor-may.jpg That's a little surprising, because May showed a disappointing lack of progress in the 2013 season. While playing in the same league as the year before (Minnesota and Philadelphia both have Double-A affiliates in the Eastern League), the righty put up extremely similar numbers: Reading, 2012: 28 GS, 149.2 IP, 4.87 ERA 1.45 WHIP, 151/78 K/BB New Britain, 2013: 27 GS, 151.2 IP, 4.51 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 159/67 K/BB Despite having a full season of experience in the league and being a year older, May showed only very slight improvement in his numbers. For a 23-year-old repeating Double-A, it's tough to be impressed by a 4.51 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. In that respect, May's placement at No. 8 on BA's list seems high. Then again, you don't have to look hard to find some real positives in the bulky hurler. He continues to be a durable workhorse; he hasn't missed a start in three years and has logged about 150 innings every season during that span. He also led the Eastern League in strikeouts for a second consecutive season in 2013. Those missed bats have come along with iffy control, as illustrated by his 4.0 BB/9 rate last year. Yet, in the context of his career, that number really isn't too discouraging. May has always struggled to throw strikes (his career BB/9 average is 4.6), and his 4.0 mark actually ties for a career low. The improvement was especially noticeable after the first leg of the season; over the final three months, May issued only 35 walks in 95 innings (3.3 BB/9). Still, the results weren't there. During those last three months, he put up a 4.64 ERA. Because he's been unable to back up the big strikeout numbers with overall success at the higher levels, many have speculated that May could end up in the bullpen. That is, in fact, where he pitched almost exclusively in the Arizona Fall League, registering a 3.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 14 appearances. May was interviewed this week by MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, who asked about his experience pitching out of the bullpen. May said the switch was made mostly to keep his innings in check, but added: "I think I fell into that role pretty well. I know that regardless of what role I need to play on a team, I'm comfortable pitching any inning, coming in whenever." Given his profile and his high-end stuff, I feel pretty confident that May would excel in a relief role, but it's too soon to relegate him to that outcome. He can, of course, offer more value as a starter, and 2014 may be one of his last opportunities to prove that he can be an asset there. He'll be 24 and (likely) in Triple-A, so the Twins need to determine what his long-term role is going to be as a big-leaguer. It would be great if he can re-establish himself as a top starter prospect this year, perhaps joining Alex Meyer and Kyle Gibson as youngsters with the potential to make a real, positive impact in the '14 rotation. That's certainly what the Twins were hoping for when they acquired May alongside Vance Worley 13 months ago. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: justin-morneau1.jpg Justin Morneau presents a paradox for the 2013 Twins. If the club is truly in full rebuild mode and is more interested in saving money than taking financial risks in a meaningful effort to compete -- as appears to be the case -- then why hang on to an expensive veteran with one year left on his contract? Surely some team out there would be willing to take on Morneau, although there probably wouldn't be much of a return in the swap. The answer, I believe, is that the Twins still view Morneau as a star-caliber core player -- albeit one who's been heavily burdened by injuries over the past couple years.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Trading him for a minimal return at this point would be Terry Ryan's most appalling salary shed yet. If the first baseman jumps out to a hot start this year, his value could rise significantly, and the Twins appear to be counting on just that. 2012 Recap Morneau's campaign was very much a mixed bag. While it was a major step forward from the disastrous season that preceded it, his .773 OPS was slightly below the league average for first basemen and he failed to reach 140 games played for a fourth straight year. Given the circumstances, his effort has to be viewed as a considerable success, but when you take all that way he was simply a mediocre first baseman who missed nearly 20 percent of the season and cost $14 million. Of course, we know Morneau is better than that. And he showed flashes of it at times. But can he pull it all together? Why He'll Be Better Morneau's 2011 campaign was completely washed away by complications resulting from a 2010 concussion. That injury became less of an issue last year, but unfortunately several other ailments -- along with plain old rust -- seemed to take a toll on him for much of the season. Nevertheless, for extended stretches we saw glimpses of the dominant hitter who had anchored the middle of the lineup for many years. Reports indicate that Morneau is now as healthy as he's been since suffering that fateful concussion. For the first time in several years, he's been able to go about his normal offseason routine, and he has already committed to playing for Team Canada in March's World Baseball Classic. Considering that he's entering a contract year, his willingness to take that extra step says a lot about how confident he's feeling in the state of his body. He's past 30, but Morneau is still in the latter stage of his physical prime and if he can truly put the nagging head and wrist problems behind him, it's not difficult to envision a return to form that sees him batting .300 with elite home run and RBI totals. Why He'll Be Worse We've heard these refrains about Morneau's health before, pretty much ever since his initial concussion. Doctors, coaches and Morneau himself have always chosen to take an optimistic approach, only to inevitably hit bumps in the road. By spring training of last year, it was clear that these realities were bearing down on the first baseman, who openly spoke about the possibility of retiring if his troubling trends continued. Things always look bright and peachy at this time of year, but one bad swing that wakes up his wrist or one jarring blow to the head could send Morneau back down the same spiral. It was pretty obvious last year that his talent is still there, so it will all come down to how well his body can hold up. I don't think anyone doubts the slugger's ability to dominate offensively as long as he can stay out of the trainer's room. But not since 2008 has Morneau made it through a full season without some sort of significant malady. Is this the year he finally puts it all behind him? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: swarzak.jpeg Since starting pitching was obviously going to be an unavoidable weakness, the Minnesota Twins knew they would need exceptional efforts from both the offense and bullpen in order to maintain a respectable record this season. We're only a week in, but thus far, both units have answered the call. In their 4-2 start, the Twins have averaged 4.7 runs per game on offense and the relievers have been outstanding outside of one implosion (or Chris Davis explosion) that led to Friday's loss. Across Minnesota's four victories, the bullpen has delivered 13 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing only seven hits. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The meltdown on Friday was painful, but that was simply a poorly pitched game all around, with Liam Hendriks setting the tone by failing to last through the fifth. Outside of that hiccup, the relief corps has been absolutely phenomenal, and easily the Twins' biggest difference-maker in a fast start. That group received another boost over the weekend, when Tyler Robertson – who served up the grand slam that accounts for almost the entirety of damage inflicted against the Twins' bullpen this year – was bumped to Rochester to make room for Anthony Swarzak. I've noticed that Swarzak doesn't garner much fanfare. Maybe it's because of his unglamorous role, or maybe it's because of his failures as a starter. But the guy has proven to be an asset in the bullpen. As a reliever over the past two seasons he has posted a 4.02 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Those are hardly spectacular numbers, but then you have to consider everything else he brings. He's been remarkably durable, frequently pitching multiple innings at a time and always available to start in a pinch. He's generally avoided injury, horseplay notwithstanding. And he's a former second round pick with a live fastball who's still only 27. There may be upside in him yet. On Sunday, Swarzak made his first appearance of the season, recording four critical outs in a close game and earning a win. His return improves a bullpen that has already been a smashing success in this young season. Click here to view the article

Likely Starter: Alexi Casilla 2011 Stats: .260/.322/.368, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 52 R, 15/19 SB Download attachment: Alexi_Casilla_2.jpg Potential Backups: Luke Hughes, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Brian Dinkelman, Brian Dozier We've been down this road before. Alexi Casilla was the Opening Day starter at second base in 2009, and at shortstop last year. In neither instance did he hang on for long. With a career .185/.232/.219 hitting line in April, the Dominican infielder has made a habit of stumbling out of the gates, and there's no question that it's hurt him. When a player shows no signs of life early in the season, fans are quick to pass judgment and coaches begin looking at other options. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Most would agree that Casilla has the tools to be a starting middle infielder in the big leagues. He's got the athleticism, quickness and arm strength to hold his own defensively, and he's shown flashes of competence at the plate. Putting it all together for extended periods of time has been a challenge, but the Twins are giving him another chance this year. In all likelihood, it'll be his last chance. After struggling through a putrid first month last year, Casilla hit .281/.344/.407 the rest of the way. The Twins are hoping he can approach that sort of production this time around, and with a modest a price tag of $1.4 million, he's worth the gamble. He can't be relied upon to stay in the lineup all year though, given that he's never even made it to the 100-game mark before, so depth at this position will be key. Luke Hughes figures to fill in at second from time to time; he offers some offensive upside and will likely pinch-hit for Casilla in tight games. Tsuyoshi Nishioka would be a somewhat capable backup if he makes the roster. In the event of a significant injury to Casilla, the Twins might call up Brian Dozier and hand him the reigns. All in all, there are a number of solid options to plug in at second. For that reason, and because they've been around the block with Casilla several times before, the leash might be shorter than ever. Another horrible April, combined with a quick start for Dozier in Rochester or some early flashes from Hughes, could put Casilla on the hot seat quickly. With that being said, he may benefit from lowered expectations; as the No. 8 hitter, all the Twins need him to do is hit a little bit and make plays in the field. If he can stay focused and healthy, there's no reason to believe he can't do that. He'll have no shortage of motivation, as this is a pivotal year in the 27-year-old's career. Predicted Hitting Line for Casilla: .270/.330/.350, 3 HR, 30 RBI Click here to view the article

Download attachment: span.jpg Since he was first called up in 2008, Denard Span has been an integral cog for the Twins. He's also been a joy to watch. He plays hard, brings a great approach to the plate, offers very solid defense in center, and is good with the fans. Yeah, it's fair to say that I'm a big fan of Span. So I'm going to make sure to savor watching what will very likely be his final month in a Twins uniform. There are a number of factors that lead me to believe Span's departure from the organization is imminent. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] First and foremost, there's Ben Revere's emergence as a legitimate top-of-the-lineup asset. The Twins seem well aware that Revere isn't suited for right field, and at this point his production is almost identical to Span's. Moving Revere to center would create an opening in right field for Chris Parmelee, who's hopelessly buried at this point. Even as someone who thoroughly enjoys watching Span play, I must admit that trading him makes a lot of sense from a team-building standpoint. It would open opportunities for young players while hopefully returning talent at an organizational area of need. The fact that the Twins have floated Span to other teams in the past would also support the notion that they're open to moving him. Reports indicated that they were close to shipping him to Washington at the deadline last year, and those rumblings – from what I heard – did not sit well with the outfielder at all. Is there lingering animosity between player and organization? That certainly hasn't been on display this year. In fact, Ron Gardenhire recently said that Span "might've been our best player in the first half this year." I was struck by that statement, mainly because the center fielder's production hasn't been especially outstanding. A part of me couldn't help but wonder whether Gardy was taking that angle with reporters in an effort to increase Span's appeal to potential suitors. Presumably, finding interested trade partners won't be a huge challenge. Span's concussion issues appear to be a thing of the past, and although he's no longer the top-notch offensive force he was in his first two seasons, he's a very solid 28-year-old leadoff man who handles center field well. His team-friendly contract runs through 2014 (with a 2015 club option) and will pay him just $11 million over the next two seasons. That's a good value for what he brings to the table, but it's also money the Twins could stand to spend elsewhere. Opening up that payroll space, while also creating opportunities for younger guys and getting future assets back in return, is basically a no-brainer regardless of your feelings on Span. Terry Ryan and the rest of the front office brain trust surely realize this, which is why whispers of the center fielder's availability are already leaking out. It wouldn't surprise me if Gardenhire actually does feel like Span has been his best player up to this point. The guy's been a soldier, bouncing back from a tumultuous season and playing in 71 of the club's 77 games over the first three months, providing consistency and stability at the top of the lineup and in the middle of the outfield. Trading him just makes too much sense, however, regardless of whether the Twins are positioning themselves as a seller or not. I'll be very surprised if he's still on the team come August 1st. Click here to view the article

When the Twins rose to prominence after the turn of the millennium, dominating the AL Central for nearly a decade, they always relied on a steady bullpen that protected leads. During that time, Terry Ryan was extremely adept at plucking overlooked assets from other organizations, which allowed him to build effective relief units on the cheap. There are many examples. Matt Guerrier was a nondescript Pirates farmhand when the Twins grabbed him off waivers in 2003. Dennys Reyes was released by the Padres midway through '05 before Ryan signed him and watched him blossom into an elite lefty specialist. Joe Nathan was a failed starter and then a setup man with the Giants; with the Twins, he instantly became a top closer in the game.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This was a hallmark of Ryan's first stint at the helm. Whether it was more on him or the scouts he had in place, his regime showed a remarkable ability to capture underutilized arms and get the most out of them. That's a great way to build bullpens, because spending big money on relievers is dangerous given the volatility quotient. Somewhere along the line, the Twins started failing in this department. Most of the discarded arms from other organizations that they've taken flyers on have been baffling at first and ultimately just frustrating. When you look at predictable wash-outs like Dusty Hughes, Jim Gray, Jim Hoey and Matt Maloney, it's difficult to figure out just what the thought process was. These were all older players with relatively bad track records who showed little in their time with the Twins but still got extended opportunities, sometimes over deserving internal candidates. The Twins hit big on Jared Burton, who is the resounding success story for this strategy over the past several years, but he was more of an injury gamble than a talent gamble, having previously established himself as a standout setup man in the National League. Download attachment: jared-burton.jpg When you look at the crop of guys brought in to compete for spots this year, you see more of those talent gambles and it's difficult to have faith given the trends we've seen recently. There's Tim Wood, a minor-league signee who pitched well in Triple-A last year… as a 29-year-old. Wood's career numbers are mediocre and he's been brutal during limited time in the majors. But – like Hoey and Gray – he does throw hard. Then you've got Josh Roenicke, a rubber-armed righty claimed off waivers from the Rockies in November. Roenicke made 63 appearances for Colorado last year, logging almost 90 innings and posting a shiny 3.25 ERA, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio was ugly at 54/43. Like Wood, he's a 30-year-old without much meaningful success in his track record. Also in the fold is Ryan Pressly, the Rule 5 pick out of the Red Sox organization. A former 11th-round draft pick, he failed to gain traction in pro ball as a starter so last year he switched to the bullpen and had a nice run in Double-A last year as a reliever. He then impressed in the Arizona Fall League, which apparently helped draw the Twins to him. Pressly is only 24 and just transitioned to a new role, so it's easy to see the upside with him compared to Wood and Roenicke. Still, he has proven very little up to this point and his status as a Rule 5 pick adds a wrinkle: the Twins would need to keep him on the roster all season long or return him to Boston, barring a trade. Will one of these three get a shot? Personally I'd rather see the opportunity go to a player from within the organization, like Anthony Slama or Deolis Guerra or Tyler Robertson. Considering their typical attitude you'd think the Twins would agree. Nevertheless, I think there's a good chance we see the team gamble on one of the arms brought in from outside. That approach has been a boon for them in the past, but troubling recent decisions make it tougher to believe that the Twins are gambling on the right guys. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: miguel-sano.jpg From my perspective, this has been a very positive offseason overall for the Twins. They have delivered some strong statements by handing out unprecedented contracts to multiple free agent pitchers, they made a smart move by officially transitioning Joe Mauer away from catcher, and several prospects turned in encouraging performances while participating in winter ball. But all the while there has been a dark cloud looming overhead -- one that just won't seem to go away. That would be the condition of Miguel Sano's elbow. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Sano missed some time in New Britain last July due to "arm fatigue," though not very much. The problem re-emerged while he was playing in the Dominican Winter League, where Sano was shut down after appearing in just two games due to elbow soreness. At that point, concern started to build that the elite slugging prospect might need the dreaded Tommy John surgery. Those worries were briefly alleviated when La Velle E. Neal III blogged in mid-December that the third baseman had been examined in Ft. Myers and given a "clean bill of health." Unfortunately, this thing won't go away. Asked recently about whether Sano will avoid going under the knife, Terry Ryan expressed what Mike Berardino described as "optimism but not certainty." Here's the quote: That's not exactly what we're hoping to hear at this stage of the offseason, especially after reports seemed to indicate that Sano was in the clear. The official diagnosis right now, per Berardino's article, is a "strained ulnar collateral ligament," which indicates that there is stretching or minor tearing in the UCL (though I believe "sprain" would be the more accurate term). In some cases these things clear up on their own, but often, the pain or deteriorating state of the ligament eventually leads to measures being taken. If Sano's elbow keeps barking as he transitions into his workouts over the next month, it'll be tough to imagine that surgery can be avoided. We're on the verge of a seven-month period where the 20-year-old will be throwing on a daily basis and the organization can hardly expect him to be playing through constant pain, especially if there's real danger of worsening the condition of the ligament. On the bright side, Tommy John surgery is significantly less serious for a position player than it is for a pitcher. Whereas the timeline for a hurler to return to full strength is generally between 12 and 14 months, many position players are able to return to the field in 6-8 months. Still, that would obviously mean Sano would miss a majority -- if not all -- of the 2014 season, which would be a huge bummer considering that he stands a pretty good chance of breaking into the majors this year if healthy, following a dominant 2013 campaign in the minors. As the Twins are fully dependent on prospects -- particularly the "Big Three" of Sano, Byron Buxton and Alex Meyer -- to lead their turnaround, losing one for a significant stretch of time in the prime of his development would be a heartbreaking turn, though sadly not uncharacteristic based on this snakebit franchise's recent history. It's certainly possible that this is all much ado about nothing, and that Sano's elbow -- having been given several weeks to rest -- will feel fine once he ramps up his workouts in the coming weeks. But when you step back and look at this situation as a whole, and you see an issue that first sprung up in July of last year and still hasn't cleared, it's difficult not to get an ominous feeling. We should know more once Sano has his elbow re-examined in Ft. Myers. That's expected to happen soon. Click here to view the article

In their opening series against the Orioles, the Twins didn't pitch especially well and they played some horrible defense. But without question, the story of the weekend was a complete lack of offense against a Baltimore staff that led the majors in runs allowed last year. Despite their late surge with the bats in spring training, the Twins looked totally unprepared for the start of the season, as a mediocre trio of starters were made to look like stars. The lineup tallied only two run-scoring hits over the entire weekend (both from Josh Willingham). They never scored before the seventh inning and never came close to taking a lead. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It would be one thing if the season-opening slump could be attributed to tough match-ups, but Baltimore's top three are about as vanilla as you're going to find in the league. Take a look at their respective numbers from last year: Jake Arrieta: 119.1 IP, 5.05 ERA, 93/59 K/BB, 1.46 WHIP Tommy Hunter: 84.2 IP, 4.68 ERA, 45/15 K/BB, 1.36 WHIP Jason Hammel: 170.1 IP, 4.76 ERA, 94/68 K/BB, 1.43 WHIP Now, it's not like there's no talent in that group – Arrieta, in particular, was legitimately nasty on Friday – but to come away from a three-game series with 15 hits and five runs is a major let-down and a wasted opportunity. The Twins won't be getting a chance to swing at mediocre pitching again for quite a while. With the Angels and Rangers set to come into town this week, here are the next six starters the Twins are slated to face, and their numbers from last year: C.J. Wilson: 223.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 206/74 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP Jered Weaver: 235.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 198/56 K/BB, 1.01 WHIP Dan Haren: 238.1 IP, 3.17 ERA, 192/33 K/BB, 1.02 WHIP Matt Harrison: 185.2 IP, 3.39 ERA, 126/57 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP Yu Darvish (NPB): 232 IP, 1.44 ERA, 276/36 K/BB, 0.83 WHIP Neftali Feliz: 62.1 IP, 2.74 ERA, 32 SV, 54/30 K/BB, 1.16 WHIP That's a buzz saw right there. The Twins could start swinging significantly better and still go 1-5 during that stretch, because those are six of the most imposing starters in the American League and they've got strong lineups to back them. Download attachment: C._J._Wilson.jpg Things get no easier after the homestand. Next week the Twins hit the road for seven games against the Yankees and Rays, then return home for a three-game set against the Red Sox. Of course, this is nothing new. You've already heard about the brutal first month of the schedule. Unfortunately, the Twins just wasted one of the lone soft spots, allowing the Orioles to walk all over them and looking utterly feeble in the process. The season is young, obviously, but if the quality of play doesn't improve a lot and in a hurry, the Twins face the grim specter of digging a deep early hole. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: slowey.jpg The Twins have often been criticized in recent years for the paltry returns they've gotten back when trading away players. We've seen Wilson Ramos, J.J. Hardy, Delmon Young and others flipped for questionable returns, only to quickly boost their value elsewhere. Jose Mijares was non-tendered earlier this offseason because the Twins didn't want to pay him $750,000 through arbitration, and he went on to immediately sign with the Royals for $950,000. In my mind, the Twins front office has shown a persistent weakness in assessing the value of its own talent. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Kevin Slowey appears to be the latest example. Coming off the worst season of his pro career, Slowey was dealt to the Rockies back in December for relief prospect Daniel Turpen. Six weeks later, Colorado turned around and sent Slowey back to the AL Central, trading him to the Indians on Friday for another relief prospect, Zach Putnam. Given that the Rockies have loaded up on back-end starters since acquiring Slowey and the Indians are now facing uncertainty in their rotation after "Fausto Carmona" was arrested in the Dominican Republic last week on charges of using a false identity, the move makes sense. What I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around is that the Rockies were able to get a significantly superior prospect in return for Slowey, despite the fact that he hasn't done anything to raise his value since Colorado acquired him. Let's compare Turpen and Putnam. The former is a 25-year-old who spent the 2011 season pitching in Double-A, where he tallied more walks (35) than strikeouts (33) over 59 2/3 innings while posting a 4.83 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. The latter is a year younger, but spent last season in Triple-A, where he posted a strong 68-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 innings to go along with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Baseball America recently ranked Putnam as the 10th-best prospect in Cleveland's (albeit weak) farm system. In short, Putnam is a solid prospect who would stand a good chance of factoring into the Twins' bullpen this year and beyond. Turpen is a stagnating minor-leaguer coming off a terrible year, and he didn't receive an invite to big-league camp. He's shuffled between four organizations in the past two years and seems like a long shot to make an eventual impact in the majors. You can make the case that Slowey was a headache, and that his best days as a pitcher are behind him, and that the Twins won't regret letting him go. But this isn't about Slowey. This is about properly valuing assets and taking advantage of opportunities to infuse the organization with talent -- an opportunity that the front office, at best, failed to take full advantage of here. Maybe Slowey had to go, but what was the rush to move him in early December? Why not wait until a more motivated buyer than Colorado came along? Perhaps in spring training when injuries pop up and needs arise, potentially leading to a better market? When the Slowey-for-Turpen swap went down, I was surprised that no club was willing to part with more than a marginal minor-league relief arm for a 27-year-old starting pitcher with a big-league track record, a dominant minor-league résumé and a reasonable price tag. As it turns out, that wasn't the case. The Twins simply acted too hastily and once again cost themselves in the process. Click here to view the article

A third consecutive season that has seen the Twins finish among the worst teams in baseball has understandably bred a sense of hopelessness amongst the fan base. Not necessarily long-term hopelessness -- most people understand that Minnesota boasts one of the best farm systems in the game, and that this assortment of high-profile prospects should eventually help usher a turnaround -- but certainly a feeling that contention is still a distant proposition. It is for this reason that some have embraced a mindset that involves making no meaningful effort to compete over the next year or two (as was the case this year), and instead saving all bullets for 2015/2016, when the brightest young talents within the organization are more likely to be impact players at the big-league level. I call this a loser mentality. The Twins may be in a rather dire situation presently, but contention in 2014 is hardly some implausible dream scenario -- IF the front office is prepared to make such a commitment. Just take a look at the team that plowed through Minnesota in a season-ending sweep at Target Field over the weekend to lock down a playoff berth. Download attachment: indians_swisher.jpg Photo by Betsy Bissen Last year, the Indians finished with 68 wins, just four more than the Twins. Cleveland scored fewer runs than all but one AL team and posted the league's worst team ERA (yes, even worse than the Twins). Before this season, John Sickels of Minor League Ball ranked the Tribe's farm system as the sixth-worst in baseball. Much like the Twins, the Indians were amidst a lengthy stretch of losing baseball. They hadn't finished above .500 since 2007, and last year was their third 90-loss season in the past four. But Cleveland did not embrace the loser mentality. Instead, the front office made sweeping changes to reinvigorate a stale product. Seth outlined the ingredients in their resurgence last week, but the bottom line is this: The Indians hired a new manager, made some bold and inventive moves to acquire talent, and had a handful of returning players improve dramatically. Given that the Twins stand to receive a major infusion from their bustling pipeline very soon (Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Alex Meyer all could be up next year), who's to say that a similar transformation could not take place? At the conclusion of his well written piece, Seth said, "Maybe in 2015 the Twins will be able to make a 20+ game improvement and contend for a playoff spot." Why 2015? Why should anyone view next year as another hopeless death march we must inevitably trudge through? The Twins may not have underperforming talents at the level of Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson, but there are plenty of candidates to take steps forward and make a positive impact in the rotation, most notably Kyle Gibson, Vance Worley and Scott Diamond. That's before you account for the potential additions of Meyer and any external reinforcements. In my mind, it is Cleveland's ambitious approach that should serve as a blueprint for the Twins, not the endless patience of Houston or (up until this year) Kansas City. The Indians did what it took to sign high-caliber players at positions of need, spending $104 million on Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. They turned a player who didn't figure into their long-term future (Shin-Shoo Choo) into a bright young pitching prospect (Trevor Bauer). They took a chance on a classic risk/reward play in Scott Kazmir and ended up with a player that outperformed every Twins starter. And as for the managerial switch… well, I don't have strong feelings about that. If he's supplied with enough talent and injuries don't bite too hard, I have every confidence Ron Gardenhire can pilot the team to a winning record. At the same time, it's hard to look at what happened in Cleveland this year and not think that -- on some level -- that stagnant club was jolted by a fresh voice with differing thoughts and philosophies. Regardless of what the course is, the Twins ought to tread purposefully this offseason. There are intriguing free agents, international stars and buy-low trade opportunities to be had, with all options made possible by unprecedented financial flexibility. As long as Terry Ryan avoids adding decline-phase players on multi-year deals, anything he does this winter stands to benefit the team down the line as well as in the short term. Thus, the Twins are positioned to make some things happen in the coming months. We'll present all the possibilities in the upcoming 2014 Offseason GM Handbook, which will be made available for pre-order this week. And, of course, a stream of constant offseason coverage here at Twins Daily is just about to get underway. Click here to view the article

"There isn't any shortcut to get where we want to go." Although the above quote from Terry Ryan was published back in February, the sentiment has been a common refrain for the Twins' general manager throughout his ongoing efforts to rebuild a broken product in Minnesota. No shortcuts. And why not? It's a nice-sounding way to quell the growing calls from a disgruntled fan base for aggressive measures to restore the franchise to contention. Shortcuts sound bad. They sound lazy, and sloppy, and potentially harmful in the grand scheme. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: terryryan.jpg But when you more closely examine that mentality, and the present state of the organization, it's awfully tough not to be disenchanted by the front office's apparent commitment to building internally and avoiding impactful additions that may prove costly. In terms of position players, the Twins are set up to fill their needs from within the system. Whether in the outfield (Byron Buxton, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks), the infield (Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Danny Santana) or catcher (Josmil Pinto) there are a number of candidates to lend support at the major-league level within the next few years. On the pitching side, the situation is considerably more dire. Alex Meyer is presently lighting up radar guns in Arizona, touching 100 MPH with his fastball, and he is the shining beacon in the high levels of the organization. However, he also may be the lone hope for top-of-rotation support within the next several years. Kyle Gibson stumbled in his big-league debut and appears to lack dominant upside, though I remain confident in his ability to become a quality MLB player. Trevor May could be destined for the bullpen. Beyond those three, there aren't really any legit pitching prospects to be found on the farm above Single-A. Names like J.O. Berrios, Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe deservedly draw attention, but they're all teenagers and shouldn't realistically be expected to become rotation staples for four or five years, at least. So if indeed the Twins are unwilling to take "shortcuts" in the process of rebuilding their starting corps, we could be looking at a depressingly lengthy timeline. Considering just how far behind the pack the Twins are lagging in the starting pitching department, it's hard to imagine Meyer and the existing mish-mash of iffy talent aligning to create a rotation that is any kind of true asset within the next handful of seasons. Outside help is needed. That might require taking steps that could be viewed as shortcuts. It might require an approach that Ryan has consistently eschewed: building through free agency. Of course, there are other ways to acquire ready or near-ready pitching talent. We saw that last year, when Ryan dealt away Denard Span and Ben Revere to bring aboard two high-level prospects and an established guy in Vance Worley. But the Twins are now almost completely bereft of desirable trade chips at the big-league level, and giving up prospects sort of contradicts the whole rebuilding concept. Signing free agent talent costs nothing but money (and maybe a second-round draft pick, if you're ambitious). Now, obviously, any move that endangers the club's long-term outlook would be ill-advised at this point. So Ryan should clearly avoid making sizable commitments to aging veterans that would restrict his ability to spend in future years. But there are plenty of 30-and-under pitchers entering the market, and the Twins aren't remotely close to hitting any sort of payroll ceiling, now or in the near future. Ryan and his staff have frequently scoffed at the notion of taking shortcuts to address their problems, but the current layout of the organization calls for an influx of more immediate pitching help, if the Twins truly hope to field a high-caliber rotation within the next several years. As loyal as ownership has been to Ryan, Ron Gardenhire and the rest of the gang, I can't imagine they'll continue to stick with the current leadership if the team remains stuck in a holding pattern while waiting for teenagers to develop into major-league pitchers. All of which reinforces my belief that the Twins will, indeed, spend this offseason. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Jamey_Carroll_600_321.jpg During the first half of the season, Jamey Carroll seemed to be showing his age. By the All-Star break, he was hitting .234 with a brutal .597 OPS, and he had long since lost his job as the team's starting shortstop. He was certainly making his two-year, $6.5 million contract look like a poor investment. Since the break, Carroll has looked more like the player the Twins thought they were getting. After finishing 2-for-5 in the nightcap of yesterday's doubleheader, the veteran is now hitting .306/.369/.361 since the Midsummer Classic, a line that compares favorably against his .290/.368/.344 output over the two seasons prior. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Even though he hasn't been able to authoritatively claim any position this year, Carroll has clearly been one of Ron Gardenhire's go-to guys, as he ranks fifth on the team with 518 plate appearances. And his production over the past few months has warranted the tread he's gotten. Even though he lacks any semblance of power and he's not a spectacular defender, a .750 OPS from a middle infielder is none too shabby. So how will Carroll figure into next year's plans? Presently, the team lacks solidity at either middle-infield spot, and relatively speaking, he looks like a pretty appealing option. Then again, it appears that the manager has lost faith in his abilities at shortstop, given that he drawn only nine starts at the position since losing his regular job there in early May. There's another dynamic in play when assessing Carroll's 2013 role. He has a 2014 option in his contract that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 401 plate appearances next year. Granted, that option is only for $2 million, but he'll be 40 years old in '14 and he's already shown signs of decline this year in spite of his strong second half. What do you think? Should the Twins move forward planning on having Carroll as their starter at second (or even short) next year with the hopes that his post-break performance is a sign of things to come? Or should they keep him in a utility role, hoping to fill the middle-infield spots with younger players that are potential building blocks, while at the same time improving their chances of avoiding that 2014 option? Click here to view the article