Nick Nelson

Welcome to the season’s first edition of Three-Bagger. In these occasional columns, I will examine three different ongoing Twins storylines worth following. Today, we’ll take a look at Mike Pelfrey’s remarkable return to the hill, promising early signs from some key hitters in the middle of the lineup and a growing dilemma at the shortstop position. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * I wrote earlier this week about the Twins’ low expectations, pointing out that they’ll need to find different ways to engage fans since a competitive record is unlikely. Good stories are always a draw, and to that end, Pelfrey certainly qualifies. On Thursday, Pelf took the mound to make his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery on May 1st of 2012. Based on my (admittedly non-scientific) research, his is the fastest comeback for a starting pitcher, ever. And unlike most hurlers recovering from the operation, Pelfrey didn’t get the benefit of a minor-league rehab stint. He sharpened up in spring training and dove right in, taking on a potent Tigers lineup at Target Field and performing admirably. The big right-hander threw 96 pitches and worked effectively into the sixth inning. He pitched even better than his numbers suggest, as both runs scored against him were the result of defensive misplays. Download attachment: Pelfreyspring.jpg Pelfrey worked mostly in the high 80s with his fastball, occasionally touching 91 or 92. That’s a step back from his pre-surgery velocity, which sat around 95 mph, but he managed to keep the ball down and induce 13 grounders compared to only four fly balls. It was a very encouraging start to the season for a guy who continues to ignore precedence and handle Tommy John recovery on his own terms. * At one point last year, it seemed like the two big right-handed boppers in the Minnesota lineup – Josh Willingham and Trevor Plouffe – were going tit for tat in the home run column. That competition trailed off after Plouffe suffered a thumb injury that sidelined him and sabotaged his production late in the season, allowing Willingham to finish with a hefty 35-24 advantage. It looks like the two are restarting the rivalry early this season. Just one inning after Willingham went deep for the first time on Thursday, Plouffe placed a tally in the home run column with a mammoth blast to left. The presence of these two sluggers in the middle of the lineup is a big reason many – including myself – believe the Twins could be a surprisingly potent offensive unit this year. While we’re still waiting for some other hitters amongst that mix to get going, it’s promising to see Willingham and Plouffe warming up the lumber early despite the chilly weather. * I mentioned earlier that Pelfrey was victimized by some shoddy defense in his outing on Thursday. If it becomes a trend, that’s going to be a real problem for the contact-heavy hurler, and the same goes for essentially everyone else in this rotation. Converting chances in the field will be vitally important this year – a big part of the reason that the Twins opted to start all-glove, no-stick shortstop Pedro Florimon. The 26-year-old has been a consistently terrible hitter throughout his career, so he needs to provide a lot of value on the other end to justify his place in the lineup. So his troubles with routine plays during the first series of the season – an extension of what we saw during his audition last season – are quite worrisome. Florimon is tremendously athletic, with quick reflexes and a great arm. He’s proven capable of making special plays. Unfortunately, he also tends to get too casual with non-rushed throws and lapse on plays that should be made. There’s little margin for those sorts of errors when his value is almost entirely vested in his defense. If the trend continues, Ron Gardenhire should not hesitate to make a change. Florimon simply hasn’t done anything to earn a long leash. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hicks.jpg Scott Diamond was going to be the carryover success from a 2012 rotation that completely imploded around him. Aaron Hicks was going to be the rookie phenom who served as the harbinger of the bright future ahead. The Twins, configured with a mixture of productive vets and talented youngsters, were going to be an improved club that alleviated the doubts formed by two straight years of utterly awful performance. The best laid plans… [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On Thursday, Twins Territory received perhaps its biggest gut punch of the season when Diamond and Hicks were both sent to Triple-A in the wake of an ugly sweep at the hands of the Royals. The general sentiment is that these demotions were long overdue. And who could argue? Diamond has barely resembled the pitcher he was last year, when he was a strike-throwing ground ball machine with a potent curveball. The distilled version we've seen in 2013 is not major-league caliber. And Hicks, while flashing promising power at times, generally seemed overmatched, and never found sustained traction. After raising his average to a season-high .205 with a 4-for-4 effort on July 8th, he sunk back into oblivion with a .152 average and 19-to-4 K/BB ratio in 75 plate appearances since. If you look in the right places, you can find points of positivity in these developments. Hicks is still only 23 and has plenty of time to mature into a quality hitter. The demotion will almost surely delay his service clock, giving the Twins an extra year of control. With a good month against Triple-A pitching he should be back in September, and he'll likely remain a strong bet to open up in the 2014 Twins outfield. It's a little tougher to see the bright side with Diamond. He walked a fine line last year as one of baseball's lowest strikeout pitchers, leaning on elite BB and GB rates to suppress opposing lineups. This year he has deteriorated in basically every way imaginable. His walks are up, his grounders are way down, and his already anemic K-rate has plummeted to an absurd depth. At 3.8 K/9IP, he is averaging a full strikeout per game less than the next lowest qualified big-league starter (Bartolo Colon is at 4.8). At 27, Diamond is hardly over the hill. He showed the skills last year to be a solid rotation piece -- albeit not a front man -- and it's hard to believe his drastic regression is not related to lingering elbow issues. Can he rebound and return to form? It's the same question being asked of his once-again teammate, Vance Worley, and unfortunately the answers are now as unclear as ever. To be sure, the Twins have had plenty of reaffirming successes in the minor leagues this year. Oswaldo Arcia, who will now get another animated hack at the majors after unleashing a merciless onslaught on International League pitching for a couple weeks, is one that stands out. Andrew Albers, whose expected promotion is well deserved after a thoroughly impressive season in Rochester, is another nice story with potential dividends. But until we see some of these favorable outcomes play out in the majors, it's tough to feel any measure of satisfaction. As things stand, the Twins appear headed toward a third straight 90-loss season and the signs of progress on the field have been painfully few. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: plouffe.jpg Likely Starter: Trevor Plouffe 2012 Stats: .235/.301/.455, 24 HR, 55 RBI, 56 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll Identifying a solution at the hot corner has turned into a game of hot potato for the Twins. Since Corey Koskie’s departure, the list of players who have had a hand on the gig is lengthy[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Danny Valencia and more. Unfortunately, in each case, the assignment has proven too hot to handle. Trevor Plouffe is the latest in this long line of contenders and represents the best hope for a long-term solution in the group. His bat, slow to develop in the early minors, has game has elevated dramatically over the past three years. As a 26-year-old on the rise and entering his prime, Plouffe is an intriguing commodity with offensive upside left in the tank even after erupting for 24 homers last year. Of course, hitting isn’t the make-or-break factor for Plouffe at this point. He needs to prove to the Twins that he can consistently make all the plays at third and remain in the infield after fizzling out at shortstop with a poor showing in 2011. Plouffe has all the tools to be an above-average third baseman, with a strong arm and good lateral reflexes, but his mechanics and his focus have sometimes come into question. Without a doubt, his fielding will be under heavy scrutiny from the coaching staff. To his benefit, Plouffe has now had an entire offseason to concentrate on preparing for one specific position, whereas the last few years have seen him slide all over the diamond. Hopefully this, along with the security of a guaranteed regular job, will help him take the steps needed to satisfy the defensive expectations that come along with manning third. Plouffe has already met the offensive expectations, even in a 2012 season that had its ups and downs. He started the year as a part-time infielder, scuffling at the plate with sporadic playing time, but eventually Danny Valencia’s departure created an opening at third and Plouffe settled in. He went on an insane midseason tear, piling up 18 homers in 39 games before a thumb injury cut down his playing time and production in the second half. Plouffe’s power surge was abrupt, but the concentrated distribution of his home runs does not diminish the accomplishment of launching 24 of them in 119 games as a 25-year-old with little major-league experience. And while it may have seemed this way to some, Plouffe’s long-ball proclivity didn’t come out of nowhere. Between Triple-A and the majors, he had gone deep 17 times in 2010 and 23 times in 2011. As he has matured and grown and adjusted, he has developed into a legitimate power hitter. As long as he can stay off the trainer's table, there is no reason to expect that to change this year. Clearly, Plouffe needs to put his health issues behind him. The thumb problem nagged him throughout the final months last year and he has already dealt with a recurring calf injury this spring. But if he can get past these afflictions, I have high hopes. My expectation is that he will hit at least 25 home runs, perhaps 30 or more, and that as he gets more comfortable at third base his skills – which enabled him to stick at shortstop throughout the minors – will start to shine through and he’ll become a quality defender there. Hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced, because if Plouffe doesn’t work out there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on. If he does, the middle of this lineup could be truly formidable. Click here to view the article

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Download attachment: gibson.jpg As they try to rebuild their shattered starting pitching corps, the Twins are relying on Kyle Gibson to become a fixture in the rotation. Whereas the rest of the organization’s top pitching prospects are widely considered to be at least a year or two away, Gibson is ready now. After being sidetracked by Tommy John surgery, he’s returned throwing harder than ever and – much like in his first big-league camp in 2011 – he is impressing coaches and onlookers with his poise and polish. He is a beacon of hope for the future that the Twins can present to fans now; a bridge to what they hope will be a revamped young rotation that returns them to relevance. Considering his importance to their short-term and long-term plans, Gibson will obviously need to be handled carefully. From a physical standpoint, the Twins are addressing that by limiting his inning total for this season. But what about from a financial standpoint? The decisions made this spring, and later in the summer, will have a considerable bearing on when he'll be in line for free agency. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Once a prospect graduates to the majors his service clock kicks in. From that point, the team owns his rights for the equivalent of six full seasons. His clock pauses if he is sent to the minors (for reasons other than injury rehab) but he must spend at least 20 days there for the stint to be counted against MLB service. In other words, if Gibson was sent to the minors for 15 days this season – either at the outset of the campaign or at some point during – he would still have an opportunity to accrue a full year of major-league service. If that stint were to extend to 20 or more days, the time logged in the minors would be subtracted from his service time and he’d be unable to accrue a full year. In essence, this would push his service clock back by a full year. He won’t be able to rack up six full seasons of MLB service over the next six years, thus extending the Twins’ control over him by another season. It is for this reason that we often hear about teams wanting to hold down top prospects for the first three or four weeks of the season, even after they’ve been deemed ready for action. The Rays are known for it. Many believe the Twins should do it with Aaron Hicks. It’s a perfectly logical business decision. But there’s more complexity to this dynamic than just business, especially as it pertains to Gibson. One the one hand, if the Twins bring him north out of camp, let him pitch his allotted 130-140 innings and then shelf him, he will accrue a full year of service time while pitching only a partial season for a team that’s probably going to be near the bottom of the standings. That’s hardly ideal. On the other hand, the Twins would eat away a good chunk of his limited innings by sending him to Triple-A for even three weeks, which would be tough to stomach if the coaching staff truly believes he’s ready for the majors. Sending him to the minors in August before shutting him down would stop his service clock but would probably raise the ire of his agent and the players’ association unless his performance merited the demotion. In addition, one can argue that the Twins have a responsibility to put their best team on the field, even if it’s widely believed that this is a lost season. It’s one thing if you can assemble five respectable starters to hold down the fort until Gibson’s postponed arrival date, but if other hurlers like Scott Diamond or Mike Pelfrey need to start the year on the DL, you’re reaching pretty far down to grab a replacement. We also have to look at this from the player’s perspective. Gibson, who did everything he could after being drafted to put himself on the fast track to the majors, had his timeline pushed back dramatically by the Tommy John procedure. He’s already 25 and up to this point he hasn’t really made any money in his career outside of his signing bonus. A baseball player’s opportunity to earn is finite, and Gibson is already looking at being 32 before he has a chance to hit that big free agent payday. To have that milestone pushed back further – despite his proving himself in spring training – so that the Twins can save a little money down the line would be understandably frustrating and could create bad blood. Fans may recall the situations that developed when the agents of Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins accused the Twins of employing a similar clock-delaying strategy in years past, and in those cases the club actually had solid ground because of the players’ performances. Keeping Gibson happy is probably more essential than anything to keeping him in a Twins uniform long-term, and if the team does right by him they shouldn’t have any trouble retaining him for as long as they like. If the young hurler pans out, then by the time he’s approaching that distant free agent eligibility date the Twins will surely approach him about an extension that buys out his remaining arbitration years and his first few years of free agency (think Scott Baker). At that point, all these concerns about the hypothetical end of his service clock will become irrelevant. The only thing that changes is that the Twins might have to pay him a little more, a little sooner. In this era of Target Field and increased financial flexibility, that shouldn’t be an issue. Personally, I’d rather have this organization form a rep as one that rewards players based on merit, not based on the approach that protects their financial interests. Given the questions raised over the past offseason about free agents’ desire to sign here, I think the Twins need to be very conscious of how they’re viewed by players and agents around the league. If Gibson shows signs this spring that he could use a bit more seasoning in Triple-A (which would hardly be shocking) then it would be wise to send him to Rochester for development, and the delayed clock is an added benefit. But if he does enough to convince coaches he’s ready to pitch in the majors, give him a spot in the starting rotation and allow him to begin establishing himself as a big-league ballplayer. The rest, as they say, will take care of itself. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: diamond.jpg The Twins entered this season with a wide assortment of "maybes" in their starting pitching mix, hoping that over the course of 162 games a couple would separate themselves from the pack and become established as sturdy options moving forward. In a transitional year where there was never any realistic expectation of winning, this was truly the overriding goal. The Twins talked about wanting to play meaningful games in September, they talked about wanting to play better fundamental baseball, they talked about wanting to see improvement from the coaching staff and the training staff. But in the end, all that paled in comparison to the need for some positive movement within their ruined rotation. And it didn't happen. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Most of the starting pitching suspects unraveled. Really there was only one case where a borderline pitcher exceeded expectations and positioned himself as an enticing option for next year; that's Samuel Deduno, who has been shut down after struggling through shoulder pain in August and undergoing an MRI that revealed "some issues with his labrum and rotator cuff." (Those are some ominous words for a pitcher.) With the exception of Deduno, no Twins starter has pitched especially well or given any indication that he can be an asset in next year's rotation. And that's a rather disastrous outcome, which serves to hamper the excitement and giddiness we should all be feeling about the upcoming crop of uber-talented position players. Along with the mediocre Kevin Correia -- who, in fairness, has performed slightly better than expected -- the Twins will return an unexciting group of starter candidates next year that includes Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Kyle Gibson, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers, Liam Hendriks and Deduno. Those seven pitchers have combined for a 5.25 ERA in the majors this year, and not one of them has a strikeout rate that is even close to the league average. Each player has his strengths, and might have a chance to be a useful piece in the big leagues. But none deserves anything more than an invite to spring training at this point, and unlike last year -- where at least Diamond and Worley were coming off solid seasons, and Gibson was looking sharp on the comeback path from surgery -- there are no real positives to sell fans on right now. These pitchers are all wild cards who, based on recent results, seem more likely to struggle than succeed. Trying to inspire hope of a turnaround with this group would be unacceptable and inexcusable. I could maybe see the logic in letting these guys compete for one or two spots, with the rest heading to Rochester or moving on, as their production merits. But that leaves an awful lot of uncertainty remaining in the rotation, and as we've seen, it can quite tough to find impact arms to fill those spots. Last offseason, the Twins traded two valuable position players and signed two veteran free agents, and still ended up without anyone that helped them much this year. So what to do now? Well, the front office could take an aggressive approach, ramping up spending to pursue a higher class of free agent while making a few of their coveted assets available in the hopes of luring a near-ready pitching prospect or proven MLB starter. This would actually make a lot of sense, considering they have very few payroll commitments and the system is littered with highly regarded hitting prospects. The alternative would be to stay the course, sticking with the kind of low-upside moves that have become this organization's signature and praying that a few members of the aforementioned group can rise from the ashes of a dreadful 2013 campaign. The Twins can always point to hope on the horizon, bright young arms like Kohl Stewart, J.O. Berrios and Stephen Gonsalves looking promising, but selling fans on a future built around Single-A pitchers won't be easy. In my mind, this is an immensely important offseason for the Twins, and one where the old "business-as-usual" manner of operating will not fly. The storyline entering this winter will be much the same as last year -- pitching, pitching, pitching -- only the pressure will be far greater following a season that has seen too much movement in the wrong direction. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mauer.jpg Much has been made of Twins fans booing Joe Mauer at Target Field this year. Personally, I'm not offended by it. It's how some invested fans choose to express their disappointment and frustration. They paid for the tickets that help pay the players' enormous salaries, so those in attendance should be free to voice their displeasure with what's happening. In this case, it's not totally unjustified. Not that I myself would ever boo Mauer. There have been ball players in this game's long history who have been deserving of booing – scumbags, entitled pricks and racists among them – but No. 7 is not (at least to my knowledge) any of those things. He's a very handsomely paid athlete who is not currently providing the value that the Twins hoped for and expected when they inked him to a $184 million contract extension three years ago. I doubt it's his fault. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It's not like Mauer isn't trying, which is why the booing strikes me as odd. By all accounts, he worked out like a maniac during the offseason, desperate to distance himself from the nightmare season that was 2011. But I do wonder if it's a little too late, and the years of punishment behind the plate have fundamentally weakened him as a hitter. After grounding out three times on Wednesday, Mauer is now hitting .270/.391/.365 on the campaign. That's far from embarrassing, but it's also quite similar to the .287/.360/.368 line he finished with last year, when he admitted he never felt right all season. Last year Mauer totaled three home runs and 15 doubles in 333 plate appearances. This year, at his current pace, he'll have 16 doubles and two homers when he reaches that PA mark. That's a real lack of power, and it stems from an increasingly extreme ground ball rate. His approach at the plate has been excellent. He's striking out at a measly 9.3 percent clip (ninth-lowest in the majors) and he's on pace to draw more than 100 walks. Yet when he puts the ball in play, he rarely does so with authority. His 58.7 percent grounder rate eclipses last year's 55.4, which was at the time a career high. He's still a great, professional hitter, but when I see him now I just don't see signs of the the dominant player who in 2009 hit .365 with 28 homers. I don't even see the guy who in 2010 hit .327 with 43 doubles. It was some hybrid of those models that the Twins hoped they'd be getting at least in the early years of his contract, but right now Mauer appears headed toward rather quickly becoming a first baseman and No. 2 hitter who takes great at-bats and gets on base a ton but doesn't hit for much power or run well. That's not a $23 million franchise centerpiece. It's Doug Mientkiewicz. And that's why the people boo. But Mauer is out there on the field every day, trying to get things figured out, so you won't hear me joining the chorus. Catching for many years takes a toll, even on the most pristine of athletes. I wrote an article last year framed around one of my favorite quotes from Johnny Bench: "A catcher and his body are like an outlaw and his horse. He's got to ride that nag till it drops." Bench was one of many backstops who have either retired early, switched positions or seen their production wane rapidly with age. I'll name another example – one with parallels to Mauer that cannot be ignored: Jason Kendall. Kendall spent the first nine years of his career in Pittsburgh, serving as a full-time catcher and hitting .306/.387/.418 while averaging eight home runs. In 2005, at age 30, he was traded to the Oakland A's, and over the next six years he would hit .260/.333/.318 while hitting eight home runs total. Kendall retired at age 36, which will be Mauer's age when his contract with the Twins is up. Click here to view the article

Last night I posted an article musing about what it might take for the Twins to get back into the AL Central race in the second half. It was mostly the stuff of pipe dreams, naturally, since the club would need to play .650-plus baseball and leapfrog four teams, requiring an historically unprecedented turnaround. Nevertheless, it was a fun escape from the painful realities of a lost season. (At least for those who were willing to play along.) Even accepting those realities, there will be plenty of intriguing storylines for fans to follow in the final months of this 2012 season. Here are a few: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 1) Joe Mauer chases another batting title.Download attachment: mauer.jpg With a .326 average that ranks him fourth in the AL, Mauer is in line to make a run at his fourth career batting title. Signs are pointing in a positive direction now, as he's hit .377 since the start of June, but can he stay healthy and productive through the end of September? If so, it will have a hugely positive impact on his future outlook. 2) Ben Revere too? Don't look now, but Revere is hitting .316 and he's only a few weeks of regular ABs away from qualifying for the batting title. Having both him and Mauer in the mix would be a lot of fun for Twins fans. 3) Justin Morneau searches for his previous form. The first baseman remains under contract for next season and would be tough to trade. If he can show some signs of life against lefties (which he has seemingly started to do as of late) it would create hope that he might have another big campaign left in him next year. 4) Can Scott Diamond keep shining? There was a temptation to pass off Diamond's early success as a fluke, but with each outstanding start he turns in, that stance grows more difficult to hold. Clearly he's not a good bet to maintain a sub-3 ERA in the long-term, but if the southpaw keeps pitching well it's possible he could be viewed as the club's No. 2 starter entering next season. (Whether that's a good or bad thing is debatable.) 5) Trades, trades, trades. Most likely the Twins will be selling off assets come late July. In fact, given the number of deals we've seen this team complete after the non-waiver deadline in recent years, we may well see some trading in August. Who will be moved? And what kind of hauls will Terry Ryan be able to bring back? 6) Prospects on the rise. Several of the organization's top prospects will find themselves in the spotlight here in the final months. Will Byron Buxton show impressive signs in his pro debut? How many homers can Miguel Sano – who's currently at 18 – pile up? Can Aaron Hicks continue his turnaround in New Britain (his OPS is up over .800)? Will Joe Benson banish his nightmarish first half from memory and get back in position to compete for an MLB outfield job next year? Can recovering Kyle Gibson pitch his way back to the big-leagues for a September call-up? 7) Trevor Plouffe's long ball total. If the slugging third baseman stays healthy and maintains his first-half home run rate, he'll finish with around 40 bombs. If he's able to reach that figure, Plouffe will become the only Twin to do so other than Harmon Killebrew. That's weird to type. (Of course, Josh Willingham also has a shot at 40 homers but that's just not nearly as weird to think about.) 8) Spoiling the Sox. Even if the Twins can't fight their way back into contention, they'll still have plenty of chances to help derail the rival White Sox, who currently sit in first place. Minnesota and Chicago have 12 match-ups remaining – plenty of chances to foil the plans of these bitter rivals. 9) Dozier's development. As I've written in the past, the Twins badly need Dozier to establish himself as a serviceable major-league starter, because their short-term depth in the middle infield is brutal. He's actually been better lately, with a .321 average in July, but his plate discipline and defense remain suspect and absolutely must improve. 10) Francisco Liriano's impact on the race. It seems highly unlikely he'll be doing it here, but Liriano will probably be a factor in the AL postseason picture. Contenders are sure to take a significant interest, considering his 3.63 ERA and dazzling strikeout rate since the start of May, and the Twins have little reason not to deal the impending free agent. Acquiring him will be a major risk/reward proposition for any team with championship aspirations, but I'll enjoy watching the situation unfold from the outside. What storylines will you be tracking in the second half? Click here to view the article

Answering the same question over and over again had to be growing tiresome for Twins officials. Because baseball fans in general are becoming increasingly analytical in the way they watch the game (this site serves as a great example), and because the organization has earned a reputation for taking a more traditional, scouting-based approach, seemingly every interview with an exec or front office member has included some query on the Twins' progress in the area of statistical analysis. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This placed Terry Ryan, or Rob Antony, or Jack Goin, or whoever, in the tough position of needing to reveal enough about their internal process to satisfy skeptics while withholding enough so as not to give away any kind of competitive advantage. The refrain has always been the same: We do have a statistics department, they do have influence and we are not as behind the times as everyone seems to think. Yet, while that all sounds nice, it's been hard to buy into because the actions simply have not matched the words. With a pitching staff that was already drastically out of line with the league-wide proliferation of high-strikeout arms, the Twins last year signed two more contact-heavy hurlers whose peripheral numbers suggested little upside. This year has been a much different story. Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes aren't superstars, but they are certainly the type of pitchers that a club leaning on deeper statistics might be expected to target. Nolasco's career 4.37 ERA isn't too impressive, but for many years he has been a darling of the sabermetric community because of his consistently strong fielding independent marks. In all but one of the past six seasons, his xFIP has been lower than 3.70, thanks in large part to his outstanding K/BB ratios. The superior secondary numbers haven't frequently translated into top-tier performance, but if you're going to take a chance and make a large investment in a guy, he's a sound choice based on the underlying indicators. Download attachment: philhughes.jpg The same can be said for Hughes. He's got his obvious warts -- he's exceeded 150 innings in a season only once, he has been extremely homer-prone and he's coming off a 5.19 ERA -- but there's plenty to like about this signing. As a fly ball pitcher, Hughes was miscast in Yankee Stadium, where pop-ups seem to sometimes find the seats. This was reflected by a 1-10 record and 6.32 ERA in the home yard this past season. Pitching in spacious Target Field should alleviate some of the righty's gopher ball issues while hopefully allowing his strengths to manifest. A former first-round draft pick and top prospect, Hughes throws in the mid-90s and is capable of missing bats, albeit not at a spectacular rate. Much like Nolasco, his secondary numbers are the most appealing thing about him. These signings weren't about simply getting guys who can go out and throw 180 innings, as we've seen too often in the past. These were about bringing in established arms with real, meaningful upside. That's precisely what needs to be done at this point. I've been as disenchanted with the front office as anyone over the past couple years, but this past week has really restored a lot of my faith. I like the aggressiveness, I like the approach, I like the decisions. Are these moves guaranteed to work out? Of course not. But if they don't, the Twins can say they tried and based their investments on good science. And they've still got lots of offseason left to continue demonstrating their seriousness. If Ryan is walking with a bit of a strut when he shows up at the Winter Meetings in Orlando next week, he'll have earned the right. Click here to view the article

I returned to Minnesota on Sunday night after a six-day excursion to southern Florida that featured plenty of baseball, beaches and beer. The vacation was perfect medicine after a long, cold winter here in the northland. If you haven't journeyed to Ft. Myers in March before, I can't recommend it highly enough. Beyond the incredible weather and tasty eats in the area, the Twins do a great job of providing fans with a stellar experience at Lee County Sports Complex[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], whether you're taking in a Grapefruit League contest or simply wandering around the side fields watching major-leaguers and minor-leaguers practice (which is totally free on non-game days). There's something for everyone, whether your bag is collecting autographs, chatting with players and coaches (who are largely friendly and accessible), or simply standing around and watching really talented baseball players do their thing under the sun. Today I thought I would take one last look back at the week that was with some notable highlights and regrets from the trip: HIGHLIGHTS * Watching Aaron Hicks hit a bomb over the right-field fence in his first at-bat in Wednesday's game. Considering how long I've been on this kid (and how heavily I praised him in my TD Top Prospect writeup), that was pretty sweet. * Cheering for middling prospect Daniel Ortiz, who entered in the final innings of one game we attended and seemed pleasantly shocked when we called out his name from our seats behind the plate (considering he didn't even have a name on the back of his No. 95 jersey). He proceeded to lace a triple to right-center. I take full credit for the hit and all future success. * Meeting and chatting with MLB.com's prospect guru Jonathan Mayo, who was roaming the minor-league fields on Thursday. Nice guy. * Checking out jetBlue Park, the new spring training home of the Red Sox, where the Twins played on Friday night. Nicknamed "Fenway South," the stadium – which opened last year – was very impressive and had a lot of neat features intended to imitate the legendary ballpark in Boston. Makes me excited to see how Hammond Stadium will look after the Twins implement $40 million in planned renovations for next year. Download attachment: jetbluepark.jpg * Seeing Doug Mientkiewicz and Terry Steinbach back in Twins uniforms. As much as some folks complain about this organization's tendency to "keep it in the family," it is fun to have these guys back around. Both Mientkiewicz and Steinbach are reputed for owning very high baseball IQs. * Inhaling some scrumptious Cuban food with the hilarious Jake Nyberg and MLB.com beat guy Rhett Bollinger. They both gave Fernandez the Bull a thumbs up. Take that Seth! * Spending plenty of time with my pal Topper Anton, who was a terrific host and cohort during my stay. Now we just need to get him blogging again. REGRETS * Neglected to slather my pale white skin in sunscreen before my first day spent out at the spring training complex. The back of my neck paid the price, turning about as red as the stitches on a baseball. * Didn't get a chance to talk to minor-leaguer and Twins Daily blogger A.J. Pettersen, who was busy with drills during the times I was around him. I was summarily reprimanded. Sorry A.J.! * Failed to get Star Trib beat writer Phil Miller drunk, despite multiple attempts. * Missed out on Hicks' three-homer outburst in Clearwater Thursday, as I was on the other end of the split-squad series in Ft. Myers. I did get to see Kevin Correia get knocked all over the place instead, so that was cool. * Did not challenge any of these guys to a home run hitting contest: Download attachment: sanovargasgonzalez.jpg I coulda taken 'em. * Made a point of finding places to watch the Gophers basketball team lose against a shabby opponent… twice. That squad is just an epic disappointment. * Didn't capitalize on an opportunity to tell Terry Ryan about my nasty slider despite the fact that he was sitting four rows behind me at Wednesday's game. All I need is a chance! Click here to view the article

* Vance Worley made his first start for Class-AAA Rochester on Monday after being demoted last week. Facing Lehigh Valley, the Triple-A affiliate for his former organization, Worley delivered a five-hit shutout. Before we go making proclamations about the Twins' Opening Day starter's ills being miraculously cured, it bears noting that his peripherals were less than stellar; [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]he threw only 74 of 119 pitches for strikes and issued four walks against four strikeouts. Really, the biggest change was that balls put into play were turning into outs rather than hits, which tends to happen against minor-league competition. Nevertheless, the shutdown effort undoubtedly provided some much-needed confidence for Worley, who has been battling through the most tumultuous stretch of his professional career. Hopefully he can continue to build on this success and quickly work his way back up. * The acquisition of Worley is one of many offseason decisions that haven't worked out especially well for the Twins thus far, but we also should recognize that a few of the team's moves have indeed paid dividends. One such example is the signing of Kevin Correia, who picked up his fifth win on Monday by holding the Brewers to three runs over six innings. Download attachment: correia.jpg The Correia contract was widely panned when it was inked in December, and I was as vocal as anyone in my criticism. The right-hander brought over a poor track record from the National League and Terry Ryan's insistence about Correia being "better than the numbers" was met with great skepticism given this club's past efforts in the free agent pitching arena. We're not quite a third of the way through the season yet, but to Ryan's credit, Correia has to this point been as advertised (by the Twins, not the numbers). He's striking out fewer hitters than ever -- unsurprising for a 32-year-old lifelong NL guy coming over to the Junior Circuit -- but still he's been the lone bright spot in an otherwise disastrous rotation, with a 3.96 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. On a staff whose members have frequently struggled to get through even five innings, Correia has completed six or more in seven of his 10 starts. Most of the veteran's past trends have remained in force; the biggest difference for him in a Twins uniform has been markedly improved control. In his career, he has averaged 3.4 walks per nine innings, but this season he's handed out just 10 free passes in 63 2/3 innings for a 1.4 BB/9 rate. The Rick Anderson effect? Despite my lingering doubts regarding Correia -- and pitchers who allow tons of contact in general -- I have maintained an open mind and must admit that I enjoy watching him pitch. He works quickly and seems to have a good plan for each hitter. He's not afraid to show some emotion out there. He fails to execute his pitches occasionally -- Monday's three-homer outing serves as a fine example -- but he bounces back and gets after it. In many ways, his game reminds me of Carl Pavano's. Those are the things that Ryan saw in Correia. Whether these strengths can continue to keep the the hurler afloat, in spite of his extreme contact tendencies, remains to be seen. For now I'm happy to give the Twins' brass some props amidst the justifiable venom being spewed toward their overall handling of the rotation. * Another decision I had major doubts about was Minnesota's commitment to Pedro Florimon as starting shortstop this season. Here was a guy with a marginal track record, passed on by every organization in baseball less than a year ago, and now the Twins were plugging him in as their starter at a crucial position with no feasible backup plan. Through these first two months of the season however, it hasn't been hard for me to see why the organization values him. Florimon's game is still raw in many respects, but he's an athletic ballplayer with an outstanding arm and some intriguing offensive abilities. This was all on display in Monday's win, when he went 2-for-4 with a double at the dish and started three double plays in the field. Florimon's hitting line stands at .255/.328/.368, which is hardly spectacular but perfectly adequate for a defensive specialist hitting toward the bottom of the lineup. His ability to make things happen on the bases (6-for-6 on steals) adds another dimension. He'll never be a big asset as a starter, but I've come around on the idea that Florimon could be a legitimately decent stopgap for a few years. This would be big for an organization that lacks both short- and long-term solutions at shortstop. As with Correia, it'd be no surprise if Florimon's flaws and history eventually caught up with him, but for now: kudos Twins. Click here to view the article

The early weeks of the offseason have not been particularly eventful for the Twins. We've seen them connected to a few different pitchers and catchers in free agency, but like many other teams, they have been slow to act here in November. That's not unexpected; with the market going through a significant shift, both agents and team execs are still feeling things out. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Once a few major contracts are signed, we will likely begin to see the dominoes fall at a fairly rapid pace. I just wouldn't anticipate the Twins being one of the teams to set the standard. We did see a few notable developments take place within the system on Tuesday, however. *** The first was a report coming from Puerto Rico that prospect Eddie Rosario has tested positive for a banned substance and could face a 50-game suspension. Apparently the positive test resulted from some pills the second baseman was taking to treat an arm injury. Download attachment: eddie-rosario.jpg If true, this is obviously horrible news. Rosario is one of the organization's brightest prospects (he ranked No. 7 on Twins Daily's list in the spring) and being forced to sit out 50 games is extremely rough for a young kid who was rising quickly through the system and still adapting to a new position. The bright side is that Brian Dozier has firmly established himself at second base and was going to be locked in for at least the first half of the 2014 season regardless, so there was never any rush to get Rosario to the majors. If anything, this gives the club more time to see what they have in Dozier while Rosario serves his suspension and acclimates in the latter part of the season. What makes this hurt is that, from my perspective, Rosario was the best trade chip in the organization -- a standout talent at a valuable position coming off a fantastic minor-league season in which he advanced to the high levels. I'm not fully sold on Dozier but I believe in him enough to think that moving his potential successor in the right deal would be worth the risk. I'm also personally a bit lower than some on Rosario as a prospect, because although his production has been undeniably impressive I don't see his all-around skill set making him a real safe bet to succeed in the majors. He struck me as a sell-high guy who might have been flipped for maximum value this offseason, or else moved around the deadline next year if he managed to do some damage in Triple-A. Now that's all out the window, assuming the report is true. *** Later in the day, the Twins announced that they had traded Duke Welker, the reliever received alongside outfielder Alex Presley from the Pirates in exchange for Justin Morneau, back to Pittsburgh. The return is 29-year-old lefty starter Kris Johnson, who performed well at Triple-A in 2013 but has had a decidedly unexceptional career, spent almost entirely in the minors. Terry Ryan stated that the impetus for the move was a desire to swap a potential reliever for a potential starter, which makes sense for depth reasons, but Johnson seems like an even greater long shot than Welker to make an impact in the majors. Perhaps the Twins were emboldened by the Andrew Albers surprise, since Johnson is similarly a late-20s journeyman who found his way back into affiliated baseball after spending time in an independent league a couple years ago, but it's tough to find much to like here. He looks like Triple-A filler. Not that there's anything wrong with that. But fans are already getting antsy to see some meaningful activity on the starting pitching front. And for now, they're still waiting. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: josh-johnson.jpg So far in this Free Agent Pitcher Profile series, I have taken a look at four different high-profile names on the market, all of whom strike me as logical fits for the Twins for specific reasons. Tim Lincecum has his strikeout proficiency. Phil Hughes has his youth. Ubaldo Jimenez has his ace upside. Ervin Santana has his stinginess with hits and base runners. Josh Johnson has the potential to offer all the above. But he's also coming off a worse season than any of the aforementioned hurlers, and he recently underwent "minor" surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (We saw how that type of thing went with Vance Worley and Scott Diamond this year.) Because of those factors, he figures to be far more affordable than the rest of the high-end free agent crop, and probably won't require a long-term commitment, meaning he might be right be in the Twins' wheelhouse. Why Does He Fit? For a seven-year stretch with the Marlins from 2006 through 2012, Johnson was one of the premier performers in the National League, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while allowing just 59 home runs in 904 innings. The righty routinely posted strong strikeout rates, induced a fair share of grounders, and was on multiple occasions a legitimate Cy Young candidate (especially in 2010 when he finished with a 2.30 ERA). When he's healthy and at his best, Johnson has been a true ace. He doesn't turn 30 until January so age isn't a major concern, and while arm issues bogged him down this season the hope is that an offseason elbow clean-up will restore him to his previous level of effectiveness. Given his situation, Johnson seems almost certain to take a one-year make-good deal. That involves little risk, and while such a short contract wouldn't seem to fit with the Twins' long-term rebuilding plan, a strong bounceback season would give the club a lot of options. They could flip him before the deadline for prospects, or seek to lock him up with a long-term deal that would entrench him at the top of their rotation for several years. It's worth noting that Johnson was born in Minneapolis, so he might be slightly more inclined to view the Twins as a landing spot, though that shouldn't be assumed. Why Doesn't He Fit? Johnson's health is a major question mark, and that's nothing new. Durability concerns have plagued his entire career. He's reached 200 innings only once. Since first becoming a full-time big-leaguer in 2006, he has averaged fewer than 20 starts per year. And now he's coming off a season in which he battled forearm pain, posted a hideous 6.20 ERA and finished with just 81 innings. As he leaves the Blue Jays, Johnson has about as many red flags attached to him as a Canadian parade. That could repel a Twins club seeking to add reliability to a rotation that had only one member throw more than 152 innings in 2013. What Will He Cost? There seems to be widespread agreement that Johnson will seek a one-year deal, because it simply doesn't make much sense for him to do anything else. Nobody's going to make a huge commitment to a guy with an ominous medical situation, but Johnson has enough talent and track record that he could probably strike it big in a year if he returns to form in 2014. So what it will likely come down to is who can offer the most attractive situation for him this year. Money is part of that equation. In the Offseason Handbook, we guessed that he'd end up getting $7 million. More than likely he'll prefer to link up with a contender, but perhaps the Twins can sway him by significantly outbidding other interested parties. Jim Pohlad himself has said that he's willing to spend "any amount of money" on a current year contract, which would seemingly indicate that if Terry Ryan likes Johnson, the general manager will have approval to do whatever it takes to bring aboard the sometimes injured, sometimes elite starter. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mlbdraftmanaea.jpg Who IS This Guy? He might have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in this year's draft class. A few years ago Sean Manaea was a raw high school kid with bad grades and no first-round aspirations, but now at age 21 he's in the conversation to become the first lefty pitcher drafted No. 1 overall since David Price in 2007. At 6'5" and 230 lbs, Manaea has the ability to reach the mid-90s from the left side, making him a rare specimen.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He has progressed rapidly in three seasons at Indiana State University, adding new pitches to a repertoire that essentially consisted of onlya fastball when he first arrived on campus. He reportedly learned a split-change from a teammate late in his sophomore season, right before participating in the Cape Cod League, where an incredible showing sealed his billing as an elite draft prospect. Pitching in that collegiate summer league last year, Manaea struck out 85 hitters in 57 1/3 innings and walked just seven while registering a microscopic 1.22 ERA. He received the CCL's Outstanding Prospect Award, which in the past has gone to such players as Matt Wieters, Mark Teixeira and Billy Wagner. Manaea is following up that sterling performance with his best season yet at Indiana State. Through 12 starts, he's 5-4 with a 1.47 ERA and 93-to-27 K/BB ratio in 73 1/3 innings. Who Could He Be? With his size and velocity, Manaea offers what baseball evaluators crave. A scout quoted in one article marveled: "You really don't see lefties throw that hard. They're considered freaks and when you see someone projectable to be huge, like him, that's what you're looking for." He's grown so much -- both physically and mentally -- in his three years at college that it's difficult to put a cap on Manaea's upside. If he can stay healthy and continue to improve certain aspects of his game, he's got everything it takes to be a fast-tracked, top-of-rotation MLB starter. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? The history of collegiate pitchers taken in the top five picks portends an accelerated timetable. Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen and Trevor Bauer, who were taken successively with the top three picks in the 2011 draft, are all either in the majors or knocking on the door two years later. Kevin Gausman, the LSU right-hander who went fourth overall last year, is already in Double-A and dominating. Then again, Manaea can hardly be described as polished. He's still refining his secondary pitches and is said to have some issues with repeating his delivery and controlling the run game. His estimated time of arrival is probably a bit further off than fellow highly ranked collegiate hurlers Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel, but 2014 is not out of the question if things shake out right. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… Manaea has all the physical attributes needed to become a dominant big-league pitcher but there are some questions regarding his personality and maturity. He's an extremely laid-back guy who nearly missed eligibility for college due to poor high school grades, which he admits were "due to pure laziness." He's come a long way since then, but will he be able to embrace the work ethic required to become an elite player at the pro level? Additionally, Manaea has exhibited some issues this year that have dropped his stock a bit. Hip soreness caused him to miss some time and, while he flashed 95 mph heat in the Cape Cod League last summer, he's been clocked more frequently in the low 90s this season. Velocity drops are always somewhat alarming for a player his age. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… The southpaw profiles as exactly what the rebuilding Twins need: a high-upside arm with the potential to be major-league ready pretty quickly. Although he isn't as advanced as some of the other pitchers available, Manaea has all the traits you'd like to see in a top draft pick and would be an excellent addition to Minnesota's suddenly burgeoning core of pitching prospects. Click here to view the article

* It's funny how the timing works out sometimes. On Monday, I wrote a post here discussing the offense's struggles, noting that they stemmed largely from a lack of production from Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. At that point, both lineup cornerstones had contributed minimally, which was a big reason the Twins were averaging just 3.1 runs over their first nine games. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] My conclusion: "It's too early to panic with either of these players, but up to this point they haven't really shown signs that they're ready to reverse course after dismal 2011 campaigns. It would be awfully nice if they could begin doing so this week in New York." Sure enough, the M&M boys answered the call in the Big Apple. In the four-game series, the tandem combined to go 11-for-27 with three doubles and three homers. Mauer started lifting the ball and Morneau generally took much better at-bats. Not coincidentally, the Twins averaged 5.5 runs and came away with their most successful series in the Bronx in over a decade. Obviously the turnaround had nothing to do my post, but like I said, it's funny how these things work out sometimes. * In a similar vein, I shot out the following tweet during Wednesday night's game after Matt Capps served up a home run to Derek Jeter: "Matt Capps has struck out one of the 19 batters he's faced this year. #WhyIsHeClosing" Naturally, Capps proceeded to immediately strike out Curtis Granderson before retiring Mark Teixeira on a deep fly to close out a one-run victory. Yet, in this case, the point still stands. While he's managed to convert all three of his save chances thus far, Capps' inability to miss bats is a recipe for disaster in the ninth inning. Download attachment: matt capps.jpg I'll be honest: I'm not convinced that whatever arm ailment was plaguing the right-hander last summer has gone away. In my mind, there were two clear indicators that something was wrong with Capps last year: A) A decrease in velocity. His fastball went from averaging 93.6 MPH in 2009 and 94.0 MPH in 2010 to 92.9 in 2011. A huge drop in strikeout rate. Probably not totally unrelated to the dashed velo, but Capps went from striking out 18.7 of the batters he faced in the first six seasons of his big-league career (including 19.3 percent in 2010) to just 12.4 percent in 2011. So far this year, Capps is averaging 92.6 MPH with his fastball and has struck out 9.5 percent of the batters he's faced after fanning six of 51 in spring training. He has only pitched five innings thus far, so the small sample caveat obviously applies in a big way, but these are troubling signs for a guy who was rendered ineffective as closer last year by an injury that was not addressed in any way. Hopefully he responds to my harping on these issues in the same way Mauer and Morneau did. * In the grand scheme of things, it's tough to be too upset about the Twins' current 4-9 record. Obviously the season-opening sweep in Baltimore was beyond ugly, but since then the Twins have gone 4-6 against three elite teams. They won a series at home against a very good Angels club and split in New York against their longtime tormenters. While the Twins weren't able to come up with a win against the Rangers, they were generally competitive in that series and Texas has been essentially unstoppable this year -- they're now 11-2 after wiping out the Tigers on Thursday night. If the Twins are still only five games under .500 when they come out of this treacherous opening stretch, they'll be in decent position going forward. Of course, if they don't start pitching better, that's all moot. Click here to view the article

Likely Starter: Ben Revere 2011 Stats: .267/.310/.309, 0 HR, 30 RBI, 56 R, 34/43 SB Download attachment: benreverespring.jpg Potential Backups: Trevor Plouffe, Darin Mastroianni, Brian Dinkelman Last year the Twins were the least effective team in all of baseball at converting batted balls into outs. With a pitching staff that allows a ton of contact, that's an enormously troubling statistic.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Lining up Ben Revere as the regular left fielder should certainly benefit the Twins on the defensive front. He and Denard Span can team up to track down almost everything hit in the air to the left side of Target Field's spacious outfield. But how much are the Twins giving up offensively by going with Revere as their starter in left? And if he doesn't start reaching base with greater frequency, how long will his leash be? I've seen plenty of skepticism regarding Revere's long-term outlook, and it's not hard to see why. Lacking power, patience and arm strength, his skill set is clearly limiting – particularly for a corner outfielder, which is what he'll be as long as Span is holding down center. Yet, I'm pretty bullish on Revere, for a number of reasons. While his weaknesses are well established, he also has some promising strengths. He's a contact hitter who gets out of the box and down the line with extreme quickness, and he is blazing fast. He set a Twins rookie record with 34 stolen bases last year, and his range in the outfield is truly spectacular. At 23, I think he still has room to grow. Even if he's one of the best defensive left fielders in the league, the .619 OPS that Revere posted in 2011 simply won't cut it. He needs to elevate that number, and since he's not likely to start drawing walks or racking up extra-base hits, he'll need to do it by significantly improving his batting average. He can help himself in that area by lifting the ball more (his 68.5 percent ground ball rate led the Twins last year) and bunting for hits (he's only attempted 16 career bunts). The alternative to Revere in left, when the Twins face a tough lefty or when Ron Gardenhire wants more offense, will be Trevor Plouffe. A first-round draft pick back in 2004, Plouffe had a breakout season in the minors last year, posting a 1.019 OPS in Rochester, and he showed decent pop during his time in the majors with 27 extra-base hits in 320 plate appearances. Defensively Plouffe is a major question mark, given that he'd never played in the outfield prior to 2011, and his bat is hardly a proven commodity. He does offer some interesting offensive upside, though, and at the very least he's a nice guy to have around as a pseudo-platoon partner for Revere. I'm probably higher than most on both Plouffe and Revere, but there's no denying the fact that one is a converted shortstop who never hit much prior to last year and one profiles as a prototypical fourth outfielder. It's difficult to envision left field as a major strength between these two, but both are young players who offer very different benefits and I'm fairly intrigued to see how this little experiment will turn out. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Revere: .280/.330/.340, 1 HR, 30 RBI Click here to view the article

As we count down the days until pitchers and catchers report to Ft. Myers, I'm going to run a series of columns this week detailing some of the less high-profile story lines worth following in the 2012 season. We've heard plenty about the redemption quests of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span and Francisco Liriano; in the coming days I'll be examining some other factors that could significantly impact the 2012 season. Today, I look at the pitch that turned around an embattled southpaw's career and could continue to entrench him as one of the game's best relievers. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After averaging just 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings over the first five seasons of his MLBDownload attachment: perkins.jpg career, Glen Perkins made the switch to full-time setup duties last year and the difference was night and day. In 61 2/3 innings at the back end of the Twins' bullpen, Perkins struck out 65 batters, good for a 9.5 K/9 rate that was superior to any seasonal mark he'd put up since splitting the 2006 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A as a 23-year-old. Improved health and the freedom to let loose in shorter relief stints aided an increase in velocity across the board for Perkins, but while his fastball gained a few ticks, his most impressive pitch was a devastating slider, which showed remarkably more bite than we've ever seen from it in the past. According to the PitchFX data available at Brooks Baseball, Perkins threw his slider a total of 440 times between 2008 and 2010, inducing only 47 swings-and-misses (10.7 percent). Last year, his much improved version garnered 60 whiffs on 276 deliveries, spiking his rate to 21.7 percent. That included a 27.6 percent swinging miss rate on two-strike counts, where the spinner was a dominant and very frequently used weapon. Perkins' supremely effective slider enabled him to completely neutralize right-handed hitters, making him one of the few left-handed relievers in the league worthy of trust against batters from either side of the plate in late-inning situations. If his mastery with that offering continues, we could see him closing games before long. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Phil-Hughes.jpg Once upon a time, Phil Hughes was among the most highly touted pitching prospects in the game. A former first-round pick, he emerged as a dominant force in the minors, climbing to the No. 4 spot on Baseball America's list of top prospects before debuting in the majors at age 20 in 2007. Sadly, the right-hander has never lived up to his immense promise. With a career 4.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, he has essentially been the definition of "average" over the course of his seven years with the Yankees. Most disturbingly, he has deteriorated as he's aged toward his physical prime.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hughes had some fairly impressive campaigns earlier in his career, including an 18-win 2010 season, but over the past three years he has posted a 4.85 ERA (86 ERA+), and fielding-independent metrics don't suggest that his results are greatly out of line with his performance. Why Does He Fit? Hughes offers two primary attractions: his age and the potential that he'll improve once removed from the AL East and hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. By virtue of his early entry into the majors, Hughes hits free agency for the first time at the uncommonly young age of 27. That means that -- unlike with most veterans on the open market -- he could be signed to a long-term deal that won't necessarily take him into his mid-30s. Unfortunately, as discussed above, while ages 27-32 are generally thought to be a player's physical prime, Hughes hasn't shown the improvement you'd like to see while edging toward this window. Still, considering that he's less than a year older than Kyle Gibson, he clearly fits into the Twins' long-term timeline better than a guy over 30. Undoubtedly, Target Field would be a better environment for him than the ballpark in the Bronx. Hughes is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and one of his most glaring issues has been proneness to the long ball. Over the past three seasons, he has coughed up 68 homers in 411 innings -- an average of 1.49 HR/9 that ranks as the fifth-highest in the majors during that span. It stands to reason that many of those deep flies would die in the spacious gaps of Target Field, and then his consistently solid K/BB ratios become a whole lot more intriguing. The notion that a change of scenery would benefit Hughes is backed up by his home/road splits; this year, he went 1-10 with a 5.88 ERA and 17 homers allowed in 16 starts at Yankee Stadium, compared to 3-4 with a 3.88 ERA and seven home runs allowed in 13 road starts. Why Doesn't He Fit? The Twins are seeking a starter who is a proven producer -- a guy who has been durable and has eaten up innings. Hughes doesn't really fit that bill. He has never thrown 200 innings in a season and has averaged just 147 since becoming a full-time starter. He completed six innings in 13 of his 29 starts this season. Only as a reliever has he excelled over an extended period. Hughes was a high-end talent while coming up through the minors and he's flashed that ability at times in the majors, but in the current climate he'll likely require a significant investment, which would mean taking a major leap of faith. That would be pretty uncharacteristic for Terry Ryan and these Twins. What Will He Cost? In the Offseason Handbook, we estimated Hughes' contract at three years, $30 million. That's seemingly a large amount to guarantee a guy who hasn't really produced in recent years, but the righty's youth -- in combination with his pedigree and potential -- could create a bidding war of sorts in a pitching-starved market where money is more flush than ever. On the bright side, because of the hurler's poor performance this year -- especially down the stretch (he posted a 7.22 ERA in August and September) -- it sounds unlikely that the Yankees will extend a qualifying offer, meaning that signing him won't cost a draft pick. Click here to view the article

We are reminded in the forums here daily that Twins fans have their (sometimes contentious) differences of opinion, but one thing everyone seems to agree on is that this season has been vastly more enjoyable than the previous two. In part, that's because the Twins are a far more respectable team. They are only four games below .500 and, outside of the notorious 10-game losing streak, they've generally played rather well. After so much sinking during the last two seasons, it feels nice to tread water. But staying afloat isn't by itself cause for excitement. What really seems to be keeping fans engaged is that, rather than hearing about the promising future, we're finally seeing it. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] First, there was Aaron Hicks. The former first-round pick was a spring star and has shown some nice flashes over the first half of his rookie season. Then came the unexpectedly early arrival of Oswaldo Arcia. The club has tried – so, so hard – to do the responsible thing and exercise patience with the exuberant 22-year-old, who last year around this time was playing in Single-A. But they can't help themselves. Any time a roster spot has become available in the outfield, the Twins have taken advantage of the opportunity to get Arcia on the team. And Ron Gardenhire has shown no hesitation plugging the youngster's game-changing bat into the middle of the lineup on a regular basis. The results speak for themselves. (Over the weekend in Cleveland, Arcia doubled, homered and drove in four runs.) Download attachment: arcia.jpg Now, another key piece of the future arrives with the overdue promotion of Kyle Gibson. While the current rotation consists almost entirely of guys who are long- shots to be ongoing fixtures, Gibson is fully expected such a mainstay. Terry Ryan implied recently that when he called the top pitching prospect up from Rochester, it'd be for good. So, barring a meltdown in his first couple starts, Gibson likely won't be the one in danger of losing his job when Mike Pelfrey returns from the disabled list. Right now it looks like P.J. Walters and Scott Diamond will be the ones feeling the heat. That is, if the Twins feel inclined to make room for a veteran with the league's worst qualifying ERA who is signed to a one-year deal. Pelfrey has been better of late, but still not good. Whether we're talking present or future, it's tough to make a case that he's a superior option to any of Walters, Diamond or Gibson. Click here to view the article

Another day, another (meaningless) spring loss. After falling to Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees 5-4 on Saturday, the Twins are now 0-5 since I arrived in Ft. Myers on Monday, but fortunately the games don't start counting for another week. Dig into the bullet points below for notes on the Asian import, Kevin Correia's second-to-last spring start, an emerging option for the second spot in the lineup, and more. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * The stadium and press box were both packed on Saturday afternoon with Tanaka and the Yankees visiting Hammond. The Japanese phenom tossed 5 2/3 innings for New York, allowing three runs on five hits while fanning six and walking one. "Fun to watch," Gardenhire said of Tanaka. "The ball had a lot of movement." Gardy complimented Tanaka's famed splitter and commented that his changeup (or "whatever that thing is") was diving down hard. "Looks like he's going to be a good one." * We had a chance to see the review system in action when New York manager Joe Girardi challenged a call that had Aaron Hicks sliding safely into second by maneuvering around a tag. After another look, the call was reversed. Girardi spent about a minute in discussions with the second base umpire before requesting a replay, but once the review process went into effect it was very fast. Forty-four seconds was all it took to get the call right. * Kevin Correia had a decent outing, as he became the first Twins pitcher to complete six innings in a Grapefruit League start. He held a Yankees lineup that included no starters outside of Brett Gardner scoreless outside of a rocky fourth in which four runs crossed. Of note: Correia has faced 50 batters this spring and struck out two. Download attachment: gardysuzuki321.jpg * Kurt Suzuki batted in the two-hole Saturday, marking the second straight time Gardenhire has placed the catcher there with his 'A' lineup. Nothing is set in stone, but prepare yourself to see a guy with a .282 on-base percentage over the last two years near the top of the order when the season starts. "I've got no problem with it," the manager said of batting Suzuki second. "I'm not going to sit here and tell you my lineup right now but I'm taking looks at all kinds of things… I don't think it's a bad fit." On the plus side, Suzuki doesn't strike out much -- only 11 percent of the time last year, which might be a reason Gardenhire is trying him there -- but if he hits anything like he has over the past few seasons he's a brutal choice for one of the most important spots in the lineup. * Pedro Florimon had a tough game. He failed to secure a couple ground balls that hit his glove (though neither was ruled an error) and struck out in all three of his trips to the plate, dropping his average to .091. "He wasn't getting his front foot down which is a bad sign for him," said Gardenhire. "It looked like he was really late on all the pitches." Nevertheless, one thing I've come to realize down here is that Florimon has a tight grip on the shortstop job. There's no competition for the position despite his late start to the spring, and right now Gardenhire is simply focused on getting him as much playing time as possible before the season gets underway. "We're working on trying to get him going here." * Today was my last at the ballpark, as I'll be flying back to Minnesota tomorrow. I've had a blast down here. It's been fun to put the journalist hat back on and brush up on some skills I haven't used much since college. Everyone here has been first-rate. Huge thanks to Twins staffers and fellow media folks who have all been very friendly and helpful. I'll be putting together a final roster projection either tonight or tomorrow morning, and then on Monday Parker (who was dubbed by Rob Antony as our "closer") will be arriving to bring us down the home stretch. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: alexburnett.jpg La Velle E. Neal III reports that right-handed reliever Alex Burnett, who has made 174 appearances out of the Minnesota Twins bullpen over the past three seasons, is officially no longer with the organization. After being placed on outright waivers, presumably to make room on the 40-man roster for outfielder Wilkin Ramirez, Burnett was claimed by the Blue Jays on Friday. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It's not difficult to see why a team like Toronto might want to chance it on Burnett. He brandishes a hard fastball and a slider with some real snap. Back when he was first breaking into the Twins bullpen at age 22 I thought he might develop into a pretty nice option for the late innings. But he didn't develop. Neal wrote in his report that "Twins officials were unhappy with [burnett's] spring, saying he had taken a step back." In general, it seems that the 25-year-old has gone nowhere but backwards, with K-rates dropping from 18 percent in 2010 to 15 percent in 2011 to 12 percent last year. This spring he was a complete mess, coughing up 15 hits and seven walks in 8 1/3 innings while striking out only one of the 46 batters he faced. That was apparently the last straw for the Twins. This move is a little surprising considering what a constant Burnett has been in the big-league bullpen over the past few seasons, but I guess we can mark it down – along with Drew Butera's recent demotion – as evidence that the "no more scholarships" policy is being enforced. Meanwhile, we'll have to hope that Burnett doesn't join the likes of Craig Breslow and Grant Balfour as relievers the Twins gave up on too hastily. Click here to view the article

Likely Starter: Josh Willingham 2011 Stats: .246/.332/.477, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 69 R, 4/5 SB Download attachment: willinghammer.jpg Potential Backups: Trevor Plouffe, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni When he hasn't been needed elsewhere, Michael Cuddyer has spent most of the past six years roaming right field for the Twins. No player has spent more time in front of the big blue baggy and limestone overhang. Cuddyer was a fan favorite, a media darling and a community staple. He was also a productive player, putting up an .806 OPS while averaging 18 homers and 79 RBI during that six-year span. The notorious clubhouse magician pulled off a final disappearing act this winter, ending his 15-year tenure in the Twins organization to sign a lucrative contract with the Rockies. The man replacing Cuddy has his work cut out for him. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Josh Willingham ought to be up to the task. In fact, there's a good chance that he'll outperform Cuddyer. During the aforementioned six-year span, Willingham accumulated a superior .838 OPS while averaging 22 homers and 72 RBI. Last year he hit 29 bombs – a mark Cuddyer has topped only once – while playing his home games in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park. Willingham has been an extremely consistent middle-of-the-lineup slugger with more balanced splits than Cuddyer, who mashed lefties but often struggled against righties. The newly acquired outfielder also brings pure pull power, making him a better fit in Target Field than his predecessor. In his quest to provide the Twins with above-average production in right field, Willingham will face two key barriers: injuries and age. He's done a good job of avoiding major ailments, playing in more than 100 games every year since becoming a regular, but he's also missed an average of 34 per season. Unless Justin Morneau can bounce back in a big way, the Twins don't have another player who can pack the kind of pop that Willingham does, so they'll need him in the lineup. Willingham is also 33 years old, putting him past what is typically considered to be a player's physical prime. There are plenty of guys who remain productive well into their mid-30s and he looked plenty sharp last year, but this is an age where many begin to see their bat speed and athleticism decline. I suspect that age, injuries and an even tougher ballpark will take a toll on Willingham to some degree, but his track record is outstanding and he's a great fit in this lineup. It will be fun to see how many he can yank into the Home Run Porch at Target Field. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Willingham: .250/.340/.450, 20 HR, 75 RBI Click here to view the article

The last two weeks have been rather slow for the Twins, as well as all of baseball and the corporate world in general. Holidays falling on successive Wednesdays will do that. With that season now officially over, things should start kicking back into gear. And fortunately, even though we've seen little meaningful roster action recently, there are still plenty of intrepid reporters working diligently to keep our rumor appetites satiated. Let's get caught up on all Twins-related whispers: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: mattgarza.jpg * Via an MLB contact, Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 reports that the Twins are still "kicking the tires" on Matt Garza. He notes that the club is willing to spend significantly on the free agent starter but are concerned about the number of guaranteed years in a potential contract. My assumption was that any interest the Twins had in Garza evaporated when they signed Ricky Nolasco, so I'd be really surprised if they're doing anything more than passively monitoring his situation at this point. He'll likely cost more than Nolasco to sign (perhaps more than Nolasco and Phil Hughes combined) and -- as I've discussed in these columns previously -- there's logic in leaving one rotation spot open for competition. The one thing that keeps this rumor faintly realistic is the fact that Garza is not tied to any draft pick compensation. If he would be willing to go as low as three years and the Twins are looking for a complete rotation overhaul, maybe something could work out. But it's really unlikely, as he remains one of the top names on the market. Steam Rating: 1/5 * Wolfson also mentioned that, as of the end of December, the Twins still had not offered a contract to Johan Santana, adding that they "remain interested." Wolfson suggested that Santana does have offers on the table (all of the minor-league variety, presumably) and there was some buzz last week that the lefty was getting close to making a decision. Still nothing yet, though. I would guess that the Twins won't make a play unless he remains unsigned into February, when they'll have a better idea of his condition for the start of the season. Steam Rating: 3/5 * John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote on Friday that the Reds have no money to spend and are thus very unlikely to re-sign Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo has been cited frequently as a target for the Twins, although the likelihood of such a match decreased substantially after the club brought back Mike Pelfrey. There hasn't been much buzz connecting the parties recently, and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com wrote a couple weeks ago that Arroyo "denies that he was ever close to an agreement" with Minnesota, contradicting a Ken Rosenthal report from earlier in the month that talks between the two sides were gaining momentum. I don't doubt that the Twins are still keeping an eye on Arroyo, but the same caveat applies as with Garza; it just doesn't make a ton of sense to spend big on filling that final rotation spot when you've got a handful of reasonable candidates to compete and prospects in waiting. Arroyo's price would have to drop to a pretty low level for this scenario to be plausible. Considering how slowly his market has developed, I suppose it's possible. Steam Rating: 2/5 * Last week Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors listed the Twins among teams that could use Stephen Drew the most. Indeed, few teams across baseball have as great a need for an adequate short-term or long-term solution at shortstop, but Minnesota has been openly wary about surrendering a draft pick to sign any free agent and Drew would require one. As Dierkes notes in his column, "they seem set with [Pedro] Florimon." And for better or worse, that's probably true. Steam Rating: 1/5 Click here to view the article

Technically, the actual halfway point in Minnesota's season came and went back in the first week of July, when the Twins played their 81st game at home against the Yankees. Yet, with the All-Star Game and its requisite four-day break falling in mid-July, it's tidier to simply use the Midsummer Classic as a milestone bisecting the MLB season. So, now that we've passed both the official and unofficial halfway points in what is clearly going to be a losing campaign, where do we go from here?[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The playoffs might be out of the picture, but that doesn't mean there aren't positive things to be accomplished. Here in the final 70 games, winning takes a back seat to the following five priorities: 1) Limit Joe Mauer's innings behind the plate. Two years ago, Mauer's future as a catcher was very much in doubt as he battled mysterious leg problems and exhibited diminished skill defensively. He has authoritatively erased any such concerns since then, setting a career high in plate appearances last year and ramping up his workload behind the dish this year while once again remaining remarkably healthy. Mauer is one of the best hitters in the league, and his production is vastly more valuable when he's catching. To give you some idea of how much his offense (.320/.402/.473, 30 doubles, eight homers) stands out at the position, consider that Kansas City's Salvador Perez, with a .711 OPS and four homers in the first half, was one of the American League's two All Star reserves at catcher. At some point Mauer will need to transition away from catching duties, but it's in the Twins' best interest to delay that eventuality as long as possible. Therefore, I would recommend drastically reducing his reps behind the plate in the second half. Catching is very hard on the body, and while Mauer's ability to avoid the disabled list while crouching for 500-plus innings this year has been admirable, there's no reason to expose him to much additional wear and tear in the second half of a lost season. The best approach: Play Mauer at catcher often enough to keep sharp, and no more. Give him a heavy uptick in playing time at first base and DH, while letting an alternative option (even Drew Butera) handle the punishment of catching. Hopefully, this will improve Mauer's chances of serving as a regular catcher in future years where it might matter more. 2) Load up on future assets. The Twins are in sell mode, and Terry Ryan has made no secret of it. The chief objective for the next couple weeks, and beyond, will be adding as much minor-league talent to the system as possible in exchange for expendable parts. Justin Morneau, Jamey Carroll and other candidates are likely to fetch modest returns, but anything that Ryan is able to acquire would be a bonus when giving up expiring contracts. Of course, the only way the Twins are going to be able to add any impact prospects is by trading Glen Perkins, who figures to be one of the hottest names on the trade market. While the general manager is understandably reluctant to part with his elite closer, it's known that he is open to the idea should an offer sufficiently wow him. As should be the case. 3) Straighten out struggling youngsters. Aaron Hicks is hitting .197. Kyle Gibson has a 6.45 ERA. Oswaldo Arcia was recently demoted to the minors amidst a brutal slump. No, things haven't gone swimmingly for the group of promising rookies that have been ushered into the major-league fold this year, but that's not particularly surprising nor worrisome. The key in these final months will be doing whatever is necessary to set these individuals up for future success, because the Twins need them to be crucial components in a turnaround going forward. If that means more time in the minors (as in the case of Arcia), so be it. If it means working through it in the big leagues (as in the case of Hicks), all the better. We'll have to trust that the Twins know what's best for the development of these young talents. Hopefully each can finish the year in a good place. 4) Evaluate borderline talents. While the Arcia demotion is justifiable, I have a harder time understanding the decision to send Chris Parmelee to the minors. He has nothing left to prove in the International League, which he completely dominated last year, and the Twins are reaching a point where they need to make a decision on the 25-year-old. They don't want to enter next season in the same position they entered this one -- with Parmelee being an unknown quantity who has crushed Triple-A pitching but struggled in limited time against major-leaguers -- yet that is exactly the situation they're headed toward. Download attachment: plouffeandparm.jpg Fortunately, outcomes have been better for fellow uncertainties Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier. Each has shown signs of becoming a solid long-term fixture, albeit with considerably more stability than Parmelee has enjoyed. I'd like to see plenty of all three, as well as Pedro Florimon, in the second half, so as to help inform offseason decisions regarding the positions they play. 5) Don't be afraid to lose. I'm certainly not advocating that the Twins try to lose. That's not how professional sports teams operate, nor should they. But all decisions should be aimed at the betterment of individual young players, not giving the team a better chance to win. At the end of the day, the only real difference between losing 85 games and 95 games is draft position. The Twins have had picks in the top four in each of the past two seasons, and with those picks they have added Byron Buxton -- now viewed as the consensus top prospect in baseball -- and Kohl Stewart -- ranked this week by Keith Law as the game's No. 30 prospect despite being drafted out of high school about a month ago. Circling back to the Parmelee example, if the Twins think he was struggling because he was overwhelmed and needed to get things figured out in a lower-pressure environment, fair enough. But if they felt his struggles were affecting the team's ability to win... at this point, who cares? Click here to view the article