Nick Nelson

Download attachment: pelfrey.jpg With six innings of one-run ball against the Angels on Wednesday, Mike Pelfrey lowered his ERA to 5.15 ERA, the lowest it has been since April 9. During the first couple months of the season, Pelfrey was pretty clearly the worst starting pitcher in baseball, at least among those to hold onto their jobs. Not surprising in light of the fact that May 1st marked his one-year anniversary from Tommy John surgery. Looking at historical timelines for recovery from the notorious procedure, Pelfrey's initial struggles were to be expected. But his improvement since the start of June has been stark.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Don't take my word for it; check out the numbers side-by-side: [TABLE] [/TD][TD=align: center]April and May [TD=align: center]June and July[/TD] Games Started[TD=align: center]11[/TD] [TD=align: center]7[/TD] Quality Starts[TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]5[/TD] ERA[TD=align: center]6.66[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.35[/TD] K/BB[TD=align: center]26/19[/TD] [TD=align: center]29/9[/TD] Opp AVG/OBP/SLG[TD=align: center].332/.387/.521[/TD] [TD=align: center].263/.308/.363[/TD] [/TABLE] The contrast is remarkable. In April and May, Pelfrey was a hittable mess, almost incapable of getting through six innings. Since then, however, he's been extremely solid, completing six or more innings in all but one start (in which he went 5 2/3) and consistently giving his team a good chance to win. It seems safe to say that he's gotten over the hump. Unfortunately, the turnaround may have come too late to help the Twins. My expectation from the beginning was that Pelfrey would start slow and improve in the latter part of the season, but as a player on a one-year contract with a non-competitive team (in other words, a trade candidate), that's a problem because potential trade partners will assess his value based on his performance in the first half. Pelfrey is almost certainly among the commodities Terry Ryan is shopping with the deadline rapidly approaching, but will other teams focus on his steady performance these past couple months or his numbers for the season as a whole, like an ERA that ranks as the sixth-worst in the majors, or a strikeout rate that is fourth-worst? Because he missed time with an injury in late June, Pelfrey hasn't had quite enough time to rebuild his value and now he'll have just one more start before next Wednesday's trade deadline. It would seem that the market for him might not be especially hot, and for his part, Pelf says he would be "crushed" if he were to be dealt. So what's the alternative? Let him continue taking the mound every fifth day in August and September and then use his improved second half as grounds to score a healthy contract in free agency? Or should the Twins take a proactive approach and look to lock the veteran up with a contract extension before season's end? Back in May, that notion would have been laughable, but Pelfrey has undeniably been a high-quality fixture over the past two months and, in light of his circumstances, it's not hard to believe his transformation has been legitimate. He's still only 29 years old, and while he was by no means a dominant pitcher in New York prior to the elbow injury, he was a workhorse who occasionally produced stellar seasons. The Twins are trying to rebuild around youth, but the disheartening developments this year for Scott Diamond and Vance Worley have cast serious doubt on Minnesota's ability to piece together a workable rotation configured with internal parts. We all know the likelihood of Ryan fishing for impact arms in free agency. Of course, Pelfrey might be eager to play out the rest of the year and test the market, since he's never really had a chance to do so (last year was his first foray into free agency and obviously he had much going against him). Then again, if his numerous quotes about enjoying his time in Minnesota and really wanting to stay are to be believed, the righty might be open to agreeable terms. With the way the free agent pitching market has spiraled out of control in recent years, and with the uncertainty surrounding young hurlers that the Twins hoped might figure into their 2013 rotation (Diamond, Worley, Alex Meyer, Trevor May), if Pelfrey can be signed for anything resembling a discount, Ryan would probably be crazy not to do it. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mauer.jpg Earlier this week, Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press asked Terry Ryan whether the team's recent run of success has affected the way he's preparing for the offseason. "Regardless of what you look like right now, you still look at the club and figure out where you're headed and where you need to add," Ryan told Walters. "My focus and our focus will always be, as you go through a season, to look at what you've got and what you've got coming up." What the Twins have got and what they've got coming up are one in the same: bats.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Their lineup is looking strong, and everyone is locked in for next year and beyond. In the offings, you've got Chris Parmelee obliterating Triple-A, while Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia thrive in Double-A. Where they need to add, clearly, is pitching. Everyone agrees on that. Opinions differ on the scope of the project. Should they focus solely on adding young, high-upside arms, even if it means disassembling their current core and delaying their window of contention by a few years? Or should they try to keep this group largely intact, picking up pitchers wherever they can and hoping for some good things to happen in 2013? From my perspective, there are a number of ways to work toward putting a contending team on the field next year that don't jeopardize the organization's long-term outlook. And not doing so would be an injustice to the franchise's most valuable (and highly-paid) asset: Joe Mauer. You may have noticed that Mauer has been rather awesome this year in spite of the club's struggles. After a sluggish start, he's turned it on the summer months and is back to ranking among the elite in batting average and on-base percentage while logging significant time at catcher. The likelihood that Mauer keeps playing at this level diminishes a bit next year. And a little bit more the year after that. And so on. That's because he'll turn 30 next spring, and historically baseball players have often started to show decline as they age into their fourth decade of life. Particularly guys with substantial injury histories. The time to build a championship-caliber team around Mauer is now, while he remains in his physical "prime." As the years pass, it becomes more difficult to center plans around him, and as long as he's consuming close to a quarter of the payroll there's really no other choice. As the Twins ponder whether to take a long-term approach in putting a competitive product back on the field, what they need to ask themselves is whether biding their time and stocking the farm is worth wasting the best years of Mauer's career. Click here to view the article

So the Twins have a problem. For the first time since A.J. Pierzynski first established himself as a regular, the club lacks an entrenched stalwart behind the plate. As discussed earlier this week, the solution might be in-house, but that's far from guaranteed. The timing of the announcement regarding Joe Mauer's position switch at first struck me as odd. Just three weeks earlier Terry Ryan had stated that he was planning around Mauer being a full-time catcher, while also reinforcing the dubious notion that the choice was ultimately up to the player. Why change course so quickly? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As much as they tried to emphasize that the decision was in Mauer's hands, the Twins faced circumstances that forced a quickened verdict. His concussion symptoms had lingered into October, further cementing the reality that returning him to any sort of regular catching duty was an unacceptable risk. That the public announcement coincided so closely with the start of free agency is a sure sign that Ryan plans to actively seek a backstop on the open market. There's an interesting crop at the position this year, including numerous realistic targets for the Twins. Let's take a look at a few that stand out as likely suspects: The Reunion: A.J. Pierzynski Download attachment: pierzynski.jpg The Twins have apparently been feeling nostalgic of late; earlier this week, they signed Jason Bartlett to a minor-league contract. In that spirit, signing Pierzynski would be a logical progression. Whereas Mauer's plight is hardly unique for catchers past 30, Pierzynski has been an exception to the rule. He's a brat on the field, earning him scorn from many opposing (and especially former) fans, but Pierzynski has been crouching behind the plate regularly for 12 seasons -- never missing more than 34 games -- and has shown no signs of wear. In fact, he had a career year in 2012 at age 35 and blasted 17 homers in 2013. Pierzynski makes sense for many reasons. He's familiar, he's an experienced veteran who hits from Josmil Pinto's opposite side, and he won't require a long-term deal. He will, however, require a generous salary commitment, because while I'm sure the wave of boos raining down during every visit to Target Field have made his heart yearn for Minnesota, he's probably not too enthused about going from a team that made the playoffs to one that has lost 95 in three straight seasons. The Power Bat: Jarrod Saltalamacchia One of the main complaints about Mauer's move to first base is that, as a guy who has topped 13 homers just once in his career, he doesn't provide the pop you'd like to see at the position. This overstated issue could be offset by the addition of a legitimate home run threat behind the plate, and Saltalamacchia -- who has hit 55 homers with a .457 slugging percentage over the past three seasons -- definitely fits that bill. Coming off a career year for the World Champion Red Sox, the 28-year-old Salty is the second best offensive catcher on the market behind Brian McCann, and he figures to command a sizable sum. As such, it's hard to see the Twins ponying up unless they really lack confidence in Pinto. Nonetheless, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports that the club has expressed "preliminary interest" in the slugger. The Grizzled Vet: John Buck In my hypothetical offseason blueprint for the Handbook, Buck is the catcher I had the Twins signing. Not because he was my ideal choice, necessarily, but because he's a guy I could easily see the team pursuing, and it's a choice I could get on board with. Unlike Pierzynski or Saltalamacchia, Buck would not come aboard with the expectation of starting full-time. He's spent much of his career as a part-time player or backup, hitting .234/.301/.400. At 33, Buck has caught more than 1,000 MLB games and has a good defensive reputation. Although he's not a great hitter (.215 average and .661 OPS over the last three years) he does bring some power to the table. He has reached double digits in homers in four straight seasons. In short, Buck is a guy who would fit as a backup or -- in a short-term pinch -- as a starter. And he won't cost much. The Framer: Jose Molina Advanced statistics have lagged behind in terms of evaluating defense, and nowhere has that been more true than at catcher. Strides have been made in recent years, though, with one of the most notable being Mike Fast's study on pitch framing that assigned a concrete value to the aptitude of different catchers to strategically receive deliveries and help their pitchers get strike calls. At the top of the list: Jose Molina. Of course, Molina is also a terrible hitter, with a career OPS checking in at .627. Still, if Fast's research is to be believed, Molina's framing proficiency saves his team an average of 35 runs per 120 games played. That helps offset the lacking offense considerably. The Twins are probably less inclined than the forward-thinking Rays, who employed Molina in 2013, to lend credence to a Baseball Prospectus study. However, the ability to influence borderline pitches would have to appeal to a club that largely tends toward hurlers who live and die around the edges of the strike zone. Click here to view the article

Overcast skies in the morning gave way to a bright sun, and this Tuesday has turned into a beautiful one here in Ft. Myers, where the Twins are getting set to face off against the Rays in a couple hours. To tide you over until then, here are a few notes gathered from wandering around the complex this morning and afternoon:[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: photo 1.jpg * Phil Hughes got his work in on the side fields earlier today, facing off against Orioles minor-leaguers under the watchful eye of his manager, who viewed the action from his perch on a tower that sits in the middle of the minor-league fields. It's difficult to judge the performance of a veteran big-leaguer facing minor-league hitters -- particularly the High-A bunch that Hughes was matching up against -- but the right-hander looked good. In six innings of work, he allowed only four hits, and two of those were ground ball singles. Hughes struck out seven, ringing up three hitters on called third strikes with the breaking ball. As Parker has pointed out, mastering that curve will be a major key for Hughes this season. Download attachment: hughes318.jpg * Vance Worley sat quietly at his clubhouse stall this afternoon while many of his teammates milled around, chatted and played cards. He starts tonight, and he knows it's a big one. In what is essentially a three-player race for the fifth rotation spot, Worley entered the spring third in line based on last year's results, and he remains there based on his results in Grapefruit League play. In eight innings spread across two starts, Worley has allowed nine earned runs on 11 hits (two homers) while walking three and striking out only four. It's widely believed that between Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond and Worley, two will make the club -- one as a starter and one as a reliever. Deduno has been extremely impressive this spring and Diamond was rock solid in his last outing. Time is running out for Worley to make up ground. He needs to show something tonight. * Pedro Florimon's official spring debut was delayed by last night's rainout, so he'll get his first chance tonight at Hammond. He's trying to hold off Eduardo Escobar, who has enjoyed a good spring and was spotted taking a lengthy session in the cage today, swinging extensively from both sides. Download attachment: escobarBP.jpg * Had a chance to chat with Glen Perkins, who's a lot of fun to talk ball with. We discussed his increasing K-rates, his new contract and the race for the final spot in the Twins rotation. He called out Kyle Gibson as a dark horse contender, adding that the young righty is "throwing great." Perkins is also looking forward to retiring as a Twin, though he joked that the team's success might dictate his career timeline. "If we aren't good by then," he said, referring to 2018 when his new extension expires, "I'll probably just quit." * Tune into the @TwinsDaily Twitter account for insights and observations from this evening's game. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: bonnes.jpg John Bonnes is a husband, dad and independent business systems analyst. He started TwinsGeek.com in January of 2002. In addition to his work with TwinsCentric, he is the owner of GameDay Program and Scorecard, which provides the content for the Minnesota Twins Official Scorecard. You can hear him as a guest of the Powertrip Morning show on KFAN 101.3 and on his Gleeman and the Geek podcast, or follow him on Twitter at @TwinsGeek. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

The last time I can remember the Twins making a "win now" move was prior to the 2011 season, when they re-signed Carl Pavano and Jim Thome in an effort to recapture the magic that led to 94 wins and a playoff berth in the first season at Target Field. You can argue that these weren't especially wise moves, but they were clearly aimed at a goal of short-term winning. Pavano, 35, was signed for two years and cost the Twins a potential draft pick. Thome, 40, was signed for one year. Things obviously fell apart during that season, and in the years since, while the Twins have made a lot of moves -- some of them very good moves -- I don't think any could be described as aggressive "win-now" maneuvers. Not until now. Download attachment: Kendrys-Morales.jpg Over the weekend, the Twins announced that they have signed Kendrys Morales for the remainder of the 2014 campaign, at a hefty prorated $12 million salary. That's a significant spend for a player whose sole purpose is to make this team better right now. What prompted this uncharacteristic shift in approach? In part, it might be frustration. The Twins have been waiting, and waiting, and waiting for their top prospects to progress through the minors and help propel the big-league club forward, only to be met with a seemingly endless string of setbacks. Miguel Sano's elbow, Byron Buxton's wrist, Eddie Rosario's suspension… they have all pushed the arrivals of potential difference-makers backward, leaving the team in perpetual limbo. And then there are the outside factors in play. You've got a manager and GM who are -- at least to some extent -- on the hot seat after three straight 90-loss seasons. You've got a ballpark with dwindling attendance numbers. And you've got a club with tons of extra money on hand after falling well short of its spending limit during the offseason. On top of all that, the Twins are in last place but only five games out of first, and closer than that to wild-card position. So as Terry Ryan aptly put it when discussing the Morales signing, "Why not us?" To be clear, Morales is not a slam-dunk signing nor a perfect fit. He hasn't played since September of 2013, and in the two seasons since his devastating leg injury with the Angels he has been a good but not spectacular hitter. He also has limited defensive versatility, so working him into the lineup around young guys who need to be playing, like Josmil Pinto and Oswaldo Arcia, will be a challenge. But the bottom line is that Morales is a massive upgrade over the guy he's replacing on the roster (Jason Kubel), and he's a bat that you can immediately slot into the middle of the lineup. This isn't a move that suddenly turns the Twins into a World Series contender, but it does significantly boost their chances of hanging around .500 and remaining relevant late into the season. Even more importantly, though, it indicates that the Twins are finally back in a mindset where they're focused on winning baseball games now, not next year or the year after. For fans who have endured some brutal results in recent years, that is a tremendously encouraging development. Click here to view the article

First, an announcement: Wednesday marks the two-year anniversary of Twins Daily's launch! It's been a heck of a ride thus far and we want to heartily thank everybody who has visited, contributed and helped turn this site into one of the premier destinations for Minnesota Twins coverage and discussion on the Web. Twins Daily's growth has created a lot of great opportunities over the past two years, and we're extremely excited about the way our spring training coverage will evolve this year. You all are going to love it. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Live From Florida... Download attachment: fridaygame.jpg Over the next two weeks, leading up to the official start of Grapefruit League play on February 28, we will be serving up tons of spring preview content, including projected rosters, analysis of various position battles and a deeper look at prospects to keep an eye on. Then, during the entire month of March, Twins Daily will be providing on-location coverage of workouts and games in Ft. Myers. John, Parker, Seth and myself will each spend a week down in Florida, so you'll be able to follow the action from different perspectives and tap into subtle storylines in camp that might be overlooked by the space-restricted mainstream media. As always, we want to tailor our coverage to the wants of our readers, so please feel free to use the comments section here as a sounding board for what you want to find on the site during the month of March. What intrigues you most about this year's spring training landscape? What reports would you like to read? What sights would you like to see? Stay Tuned to Spring As always, we'll be pumping out plenty of articles from our writers and readers in addition to spring training coverage in March, but if you want to stay tuned in to all the stuff coming directly from Ft. Myers, you'll probably want to bookmark our Twins Daily Spring Training 2014 section. This page will feature a steady stream of camp-related content, especially once things ramp up next month. In addition, you can expect the @TwinsDaily Twitter account to become very active. Stories To Track Here are some of the compelling narratives we'll be keeping an eye on -- from afar and up close -- over the next six weeks: 1. Mauer the first baseman. We've seen the former MVP at first before; he logged 38 starts there over the past two seasons. Yet now he makes the full-time transition to a new position, putting away the catcher's gear for good. How will Mauer adapt to the new digs and how will his body react to the lessened punishment? 2. Fringe rotation contenders make their pitch. Four starters are locked in, for now: Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. That leaves one spot open for a group that includes Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and several others. As injuries inevitably take their toll during the spring, we may see more openings pop up. Don't count out the emergence of a dark horse. 3. Non-roster invites on the bubble. Familiar faces Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier and Jason Bartlett will all be back in camp looking to earn their way onto the Twins' roster once again. Each has his own challenges to overcome but it's a safe bet that at least one or two of these guys will be on the roster to start the season. 4. Top prospects in the spotlight. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer will all be looking to make an impression on the big-league manager. As Oswaldo Arcia showed last year, that can go a long way. 5. The search for power. Brian Dozier led the club in homers last year with 18, but few expect him to repeat that number. With Justin Morneau gone, no other Twin hit more than 14 bombs in 2013, so we'll be looking for signs of improved pop this spring from players like Trevor Plouffe, Josh Willingham, and Arcia. Click here to view the article

When Chris Colabello's season got off to an insanely hot start, I remember multiple people commenting to me excitedly about how he was on pace for something like 200 RBI. Some folks just love to extrapolate those grandiose "on pace" figures when a guy has a great first couple weeks. It's fun early season fodder, but of course, it's all utterly meaningless. Projecting hypothetical full-season totals at the halfway point is a bit more sensible, because at this point we've got 50 percent of a season as our sample. That's not enough to preclude fluky performances, but 81 games is 81 games. I thought I'd examine some of the crazier first-half stats on the Twins, in the context of what the numbers will look like at year's end if the player replicates his first three months. Joe Mauer is on pace for four home runs and 52 RBI. And he hasn't even missed much time. He played in 75 of the team's 81 first-half games, piled up 336 plate appearances, and managed a total of two home runs and 26 RBI. Many people hoped, perhaps misguidedly, that the transition to first base would yield more prototypical power numbers. Others would have been satisfied with the usual Mauer, whose production would have been good -- not spectacular -- at an offense-oriented position. Instead, Mauer is on pace to play a career-high 150 games and drive in 52 runs. Part of that is on his teammates. Part is bad luck. But… man. Brian Dozier is on pace for 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Dozier has been pretty cold lately, so it might be a little difficult to envision him reaching this heralded milestone combo at the moment, but he's proven over the last two years that he's capable of catching fire at any time. Here's a list of players that have joined the 30/30 club since 2010: Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun (twice), Ian Kinsler, Mike Trout. That's it. Dozier's growth continues to amaze. In the minors, he topped out at nine home runs and 24 steals in a season. Download attachment: briandozier.jpg Photo by Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports Eduardo Escobar is on pace for 46 doubles. OK, this really came out of nowhere. I have long wondered if the young infielder might have hidden offensive upside, to the extent that he might be a superior option to Pedro Florimon, but there was little in Escobar's track record to suggest this kind of two-bagger tear was possible. The 25-year-old entered this season with a .228/.280/.307 MLB hitting line. In eight minor-league seasons, he slugged .358 and topped out with 26 doubles in a campaign. Last year, only nine major leaguers hit more than 40 doubles, so if Escobar comes anywhere near the projected total it'd be wild. This has the makings of one of those half-season flukes, but if Escobar can keep it up, a doubles-machine shortstop with a decent glove is a quality asset. Phil Hughes is on pace to issue 20 walks. … In 32 starts and 206 innings. Wow. That would be fewer than half the walks Hughes allowed in 145 innings last year with New York, and even then his total wasn't bad. Ricky Nolasco is on pace to allow 250 hits. The Twins have had some hittable, contact-heavy staffs over the years -- they've given up the most hits of any team in the majors since 2011, in fact -- but in the past decade only one Minnesota starter has allowed 250-plus hits in a season: Carl Pavano (262). Ironically, that was in 2012, right after he'd signed what was at the time the most expensive free agent contract for a starting pitcher in franchise history. I don't actually think Nolasco is going to give up 250 hits. I expect big improvement in the second half, and hopefully we saw the beginning of that on Tuesday night. But if he keeps getting knocked around, the Twins aren't going to have much choice but to keep trotting him out. Glen Perkins is on pace to save 40 games with a 90-to-12 K/BB ratio. Obscene. [/hr]Twins beat the Royals on Tuesday so on Wednesday you can get a half price large or extra-large pizza at PapaJohns.com when using the promo code 'TWINSWIN'. Click here to view the article

As the slow early weeks of this offseason dragged on, we kept hearing the same refrain: Just wait until Zack Greinke signs. Then all of the dominoes will begin to fall. True story. We're seeing it now. On Monday, the Dodgers announced they'd signed the game's premier free agent to a monstrous six-year, $147 million deal. In the days since, other top names have begun to quickly come off the board. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On Thursday, the Angels landed Josh Hamilton with a five-year, $125 million offer. Shortly after that came to light, Bob Nightengale reported that Anibal Sanchez – the consensus No. 2 free agent pitcher – had signed a five-year, $75 million contract with the Cubs, though he later backtracked. Sanchez is now playing Chicago against Detroit, and his price will likely be driven up. It's pretty compelling stuff, really. Overshadowed by those huge headlines was Ryan Dempster's signing with the Red Sox. The right-hander agreed to terms on a two-year, $26.5 million deal that looks downright reasonable in comparison to some of these other sums being thrown around. According to Doogie Wolfson's source, the Twins "kicked the tires" on Dempster but "never made a formal offer." Terry Ryan's done a whole lot of tire-kicking this winter, but appears content to walk away with nothing but scuffed shoes and empty hands, at least when it comes to the middle tier of starters. We've heard the Twins connected to names like Joe Saunders, John Lannan, Francisco Liriano and Joe Blanton, but there's been no steam with higher-grade options such as Shaun Marcum and Edwin Jackson. Why not take a shot at Dempster? The Twins could have outbid the Red Sox and still been comfortably short of last year's budget. Dempster has his warts, for sure. He'll turn 36 in May, and he got knocked around a bit after being traded to the AL this year. With the Rangers, he still averaged a strikeout per inning and pitched well after a couple early clunkers so I wouldn't worry too much about it. He has posted an ERA of 3.85 or below in four of the past five years and has averaged 200 innings over that span. He's a very solid starter, and his addition would send a message to fans that the Twins are truly committed to improving, now and in the future. Some might say that Boston is a more attractive destination for Dempster, which brings us to the theory that free agents flat-out don't want to sign in Minnesota. But the Sox have been more of a mess than the Twins over the last two seasons and Fenway is a pretty treacherous pitching environment, which matters for a guy who might try to score one more contract after this one. Apparently Ryan never made a serious bid, so it all becomes a moot point. Even if the Twins were low on Dempster, why not get legitimately involved with the likes of a Marcum or Jackson? The money is ostensibly there, and even if contention in the next year or two is unlikely, they need to get better. They need to keep playing meaningful games past the middle of July to counteract the attendance drain that has been hitting them in the late months. They need a proven veteran to lead a young and inexperienced staff, and the current senior Kevin Correia is not a credible candidate. Up to this point the Twins have essentially added no payroll for 2013. The Correia signing brings them back near even after they unloaded Denard Span's salary. With the big free agent names off the board, this is where Ryan should become active. These are the pitchers he should be in on. He might have to pay more than he'd like in order to play that game. In fact, he definitely will. But failing to even participate in the bidding would be a disservice to fans, as well as plain-old bad team-building. The current starting stable is completely devoid of reliable assets – Ryan admitted as much when surprisingly acknowledging that "there's no guarantee [Correia] will strengthen the group" – and that's just no way to proceed, even if the ultimate goal is to make a push further down the line. There is not a team in the league that should be more desperate for quality pitching than the Twins. Perhaps they should start acting like it. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: buxton.jpg Five-tool potential? Check. Comparisons to all-time greats like Bo Jackson and Willie Mays? Check. Classic baseball name? Check. Yep, Byron Buxton seems to have everything you'd hope for in a top pick. Now he just needs to turn his elite tools into production on the professional stage – something the last high-profile prep outfielder drafted by the Twins has failed to do thus far. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The comparisons to Aaron Hicks were inevitable from the moment Buxton's name was mentioned as a potential target at No. 2. Both were center fielders with off-the-charts athleticism. Both did some pitching for their high school teams, with a fastball clocking in the high 90s. And both had the kind of upside with the bat that makes scouts drool. Hicks impressed the folks at Baseball America so much with his tools and potential that after the 2009 season they ranked him as the 19th-best prospect in all of baseball, despite the fact that his numbers in Beloit that year were thoroughly mediocre (.735 OPS, 4 HR, 10 SB in 67 G). Unfortunately, three years later the 2008 first-rounder hasn't taken the kind of steps those analysts believed he would. He dropped to No. 45 on BA's list after a good-not-great encore season in the Midwest League in 2010, and fell off the Top 100 completely after hitting .242 with five homers in Ft. Myers last season. Currently, the 22-year-old Hicks is hitting .247 in New Britain and his ability to take walks – heretofore his primary asset – continues to deteriorate. The switch-hitting outfielder certainly shouldn't be labeled a bust, but at this point his upside looks more like solid regular than star. Hicks and Buxton are different people and one man's journey has no bearing on another. Still, the slow and frustrating path that Hicks has followed serves as a cautionary tale when it comes to the organization's latest blockbuster addition. The questions that surrounded Hicks when the Twins selected him 14th overall in '08 were the same ones that generally surround any teenager drafted out of high school, and they are the same ones now attached to Buxton: How will those immense physical attributes play out when he goes from facing crummy high school hurlers to imposing professionals? Fortunately, Buxton's tools are a notch above those of Hicks, not to mention every other position player that was involved in this year's draft (with the possible exception of No. 1 pick Carlos Correa). As an 18-year-old with a long way to go before reaching the majors, Buxton is a gamble, especially considering that the Twins passed on a number of highly rated pitchers to take him, but with his otherworldly speed, his sweet right-handed swing and his cannon arm he seems exceedingly well equipped for the challenge ahead. And coupled with Miguel Sano, he injects more excitement into the Twins' farm system than we've seen in a very long time. Click here to view the article

At my former writing home, I made an annual tradition of running through each position on the Twins' roster in March, sorting out the backup options and projecting the starter's performance. That tradition will continue here at Twins Daily, and today I'll kick off the Position Analysis series with catcher, where Joe Mauer is looking for a big comeback year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] --- Likely Starter: Joe Mauer 2011 Stats: .287/.360/.368, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 38 R, 0/0 SB Download attachment: mauer.jpg Potential Backups: Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera, J.R. Towles, Rene Rivera, Chris Herrmann One eighty five. That was the collective batting average for Twins catchers last year. The position produced a total of 98 hits in 162 games; by comparison, Joe Mauer had 90 hits by the All-Star break in 2009, and that was after missing the entire month of April. That transcendent '09 campaign was what earned Mauer his massive $184 million contract, which kicked off with a thud last year. Limited to 42 starts behind the plate due to injury, the former MVP watched as his replacements tested the very limits of ineptitude, posting an astonishingly bad .453 OPS in his absence. It was a treacherous experience, but also a reminder as to why, when healthy and able to catch, Mauer is worth the premium price tag. While the Twins carried an especially awful batch of backup catchers last year, finding decent ones is no easy task. In general, this just isn't a position that produces much offense. American League backstops collectively hit just .238/.305/.391 last year; that's a rate of production that Mauer easily surpassed even while battling numerous ailments. If his health is vastly improved this season – and all early signs are indicating just that – his numbers will dwarf an average catcher's production and he'll once again be a tremendous asset, underrated by those who focus solely on home runs and RBI. Of course, the money question at this point is whether Mauer can stick at catcher for the majority of the season. For now he's claiming that his knees are feeling just fine, but numerous injuries have taken their toll on his legs over the years and he had a tendency to wear down in September and October even when relatively healthy. Considering the seven remaining years on Mauer's contract and the need for him to produce at the end of the season, which he hasn't been able to do in the past, I believe the Twins would be wise to significantly lighten his load behind the plate regardless of how he's feeling. Fortunately, improved depth should enable Ron Gardenhire to do that without once again turning the catcher position into an offensive black hole. Ryan Doumit, signed during the offseason after hitting .303/.353/.477 for the Pirates last year, figures to serve as Mauer's top backup. Though he's considered a weak defender, the switch-hitting Doumit has a legitimate bat. Since the plan is for Doumit to frequently serve as the designated hitter, and both he and Mauer have had their share of durability issues, there's little doubt that the Twins will carry a third catcher. For now, Drew Butera would appear to be the front-runner for that spot, but former top prospect J.R. Towles is on hand to provide competition. Eventually, the Twins would love for Chris Herrmann, who posted a .385 OBP between Single-A and Double-A last year, to work his way into the mix. Last year Gardenhire had no choice but to cycle between the likes of Butera, Rene Rivera and Steve Holm when Mauer went down, and that can be attributed to some extremely poor planning by the front office. They'll be entering this season much better prepared for such a scenario, with a number of intriguing candidates capable of keeping Butera and Rivera firmly planted on the bench or in Rochester. Of course, the hope is that sorting through those candidates will never be an issue, because Mauer stays healthy and combines with Doumit to turn the catcher position back into an offensive asset. Vilified a year ago, Joe seems more determined than ever to make it happen. Predicted Hitting Line for Mauer: .310/.370/.460, 10 HR, 75 RBI Click here to view the article

Download attachment: willinghammer.jpg After missing a couple games due to the birth of his child, Josh Willingham returned to the Twins lineup on Sunday and immediately made his presence felt, delivering a two-run triple in his first at-bat to set the tone in a 7-4 Twins victory. Willingham finished the day 3-for-5 with a double and a single in addition to the three-bagger, raising his OPS to an eye-popping 1.163. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The left fielder has hit safely in 17 of 19 games as a Twin while collecting more extra-base hits (13) than singles (11). He has already hit three balls out of Target Field. He has absolutely obliterated left-handed pitching – he's slugging .863 against southpaws after jumping all over Bruce Chen on Sunday – making him an ideal fit between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. In short, Willingham has thus far been every bit the hitter that the Twins were hoping for, and he's quickly making people forget about the man he was signed to replace. Sure, Michael Cuddyer's grin is missed around the ballpark, and he's off to a nice start in Colorado, hitting .289/.349/.500 with eight doubles and a pair of homers. But Willingham's first month as a Twin, which won't be complete until the finish of Monday night's game in Los Angeles, matches up favorably against any month Cuddyer had during his 11-year tenure in Minnesota. Consider that Cuddy never posted a monthly OPS above 1.047 (that mark was recorded in May of 2009), which is more than 100 points short of where Willingham currently sits. Of course, plenty of caveats apply to the new outfielder's phenomenal April. It's been a particularly small sample size, even for a single month, at just 19 games and 81 plate appearances. He's also a traditionally quick starter with a history of slowing down as the season progresses, so we'll surely see a few slumps come along to even things out. For now, though, Willingham is erasing any concerns that existed about his age, his health and his ability to hit for power in the new home park. His consistency has been a breath of fresh air for a team that hasn't seen much. In a season where plenty has gone wrong, I'm happy to embrace one of the few things that's gone completely right. Click here to view the article

The status and outlook of the rotation is bound to be the biggest storyline for the Twins down the stretch and into the offseason. Clearly, there is no unit on this roster in a greater state of flux. Download attachment: Diamond.jpg As a new feature here on Twins Daily, we thought we'd start taking periodic glances at the starting pitching depth chart to provide a big-picture look at what the club currently has and what's in the pipeline. We'll post updates every few weeks, adjusting for performance swings, injuries and roster additions/subtractions. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The top five guys are the ones currently in the Twins' rotation. After that, it gets a little subjective, but this is the pecking order as we see it. Feel free to voice your own opinion on these rankings, and on how far the team is from fielding a respectable rotation in 2013. 1. Scott Diamond. The surprise of the year continues to excel. He's turned in five straight quality starts and posted a 2.95 ERA overall in 128 innings. How long can he sustain his success with one of the league's lowest strikeout rates? 2. Sam Deduno. His "effectively wild" approach has held up thus far, as he's managed a 4-1 record and 3.33 ERA despite tallying more walks than strikeouts. Hard to expect that to continue, but right now he's got a pretty airtight case as the team's second-best starter. 3. Brian Duensing. His extreme vulnerability against right-handed hitters makes him a far better option in the bullpen, but Duensing is a solid pitcher and he has quietly turned in a 3.77 ERA in four starts since rejoining the rotation at the end of July. 4. Cole De Vries. A recent "sad but true" tweet from Patrick Reusse: "Every time Cole De Vries retires a big-league hitter I'm surprised." In spite of his lackluster stuff, the righty has decent peripherals and continues to squeak by. He turned in a solid outing against the punchless A's last night. 5. Liam Hendriks. The rookie returns to the rotation on Wednesday night after Nick Blackburn's surprising DFA earlier this week. Hendriks hardly could have been worse during a couple earlier stints with the Twins, but has been nearly untouchable in Triple-A with 76 hits allowed in 106 innings. It will be interesting to see how he performs in this low-pressure late-season audition; he could rise fast on this list. --- 6. Anthony Swarzak. He's clearly better suited for his current relief role, but I have to believe Swarzak would be the first guy Ron Gardenhire would call upon if he needed another starter at this moment. 7. Esmerling Vasquez. Like Deduno, Vasquez is an erratic right-hander in his late 20s who limits hits but hands out tons of walks. He probably deserves a chance but it's not clear the Twins are willing to deal with two such pitchers in the their rotation at once. 8. Nick Blackburn. The club's decision to remove him not only from the 25-man roster but the 40-man roster is a sign that they've soured on him badly. Still, he's under contract for $5 million next year so if he shows signs of life in Triple-A he'll probably get another chance. 9. Kyle Gibson. Recovering from Tommy John surgery, the former first-round pick has looked very sharp in 11 rehab outings between rookie ball and Single-A. He'll need to carry that to the upper levels before he's viewed as a legitimate option for the big-league rotation, but so far all signs are positive. 10. Pedro Hernandez. Acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade, Hernandez is a classic Twins pitch-to-contact type and thus far he's allowed 23 hits in 15 innings for Rochester since coming over. He might get a glance in September just because, but he's got much to prove before entering the mix for next year. Plus, he left last night's game in Triple-A with an injury. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: span.jpg Denard Span stepped into the box to lead off Tuesday night's game and turned on the third pitch he saw from left-hander David Huff, driving it into right field for a double and sparking a three-hit night. In six games since returning from the disabled list, the center fielder is now 9-for-25 (.360) with two doubles, a triple and four runs scored. His late-season success bodes well for Terry Ryan heading into an offseason where Span will likely be the club's primary trade chip. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Following what will almost certainly be a second consecutive season with 90-plus losses, there's going to be plenty of pressure on Ryan to shake things up. The emergence of Chris Parmelee makes the Twins motivated sellers, and given that they have not-so-subtly dangled Span in back-to-back trade deadlines, the writing is on the wall. There's an extremely high likelihood that Span will be dealt this offseason. So the question is: what can they get for him? When it comes to assessing his trade value, he has several things working in his favor. He's an established leadoff man with a reputation as a strong defender. He'll be coming off a solid season in which he currently holds a .290 average (third among AL center fielders) and .350 OBP (fourth) with a career-high 34 doubles. It's also very much worth noting that the free agent crop for center fielders this offseason will be quite thin. Unless you count Josh Hamilton, the most appealing options are B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn. Not one of those players is clearly a better bet going forward than Span, whose three-year, $20 million remaining contract looks like a great value compared to what those three are likely to get on the open market. Then again, Span also has some things going against him. No one views him as the powerful force he was in 2008/09 anymore, and his missed time over the past two seasons has to weigh on the minds of interested general managers. Even if he plays every game the rest of the way, he will have missed 127 games over the past two years. Fortunately, last year's concussion is now an afterthought and his strong play since returning from this latest shoulder ailment will help erase concerns that this one could linger. That's why carrying his current hot streak through the end of the campaign would be a big positive for the Twins. Just one more thing to watch here in the final two weeks. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Orioles22.jpg Many believe there's no way the Twins can possibly turn things around quickly enough to be a competitive team next season. They're on their way to a second straight 90-plus loss season, their starting rotation is an absolute mess and their best prospects are still probably a couple years away from making an impact. To those people, I present the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] A year ago, the O's finished last in the AL East for a fourth straight season, and their 4.89 team ERA was the worst mark in the majors. Now, they find themselves in the thick of the postseason race,tied with the Yankees for first place in what is routinely baseball's toughest division. Their 4.09 team ERA is exactly on par with the American League average. With three weeks left in the season, they've already posted their highest win total since 1998. It's a pretty remarkable story, and one that should provide a spark of hope for despondent Twins fans. For while Baltimore's shocking rise has been heavily influenced by good luck (they're 17 games over .500 despite being outscored by opponents this season), their circumstances are also far more daunting than the Twins. The Orioles had been in the gutter for the better part of two decades, rather than two years, and they play in the treacherous AL East rather than the perpetually mediocre AL Central. The most relevant ingredient in Baltimore's turnaround is their pitching staff's rise from worst-in-the-world to middle-of-the-pack. If the Twins, who currently rank 28th out of 30 MLB teams in ERA, could simply move to the middle in 2013, there's no reason why they couldn't take a shot at the Central division with some good breaks (and after the last two years, it definitely seems like they'll be due for some good breaks). How has Baltimore done it? To quote Terry Ryan, they've done it by exploring every avenue. You've got your unconventional free agent signing in Wei-Yin Chen, who's come over from Japan with great success. You've got your savvy trade acquisition in Jason Hammel, brought over from the Rockies for Jeremy Guthrie (who fell apart in Colorado). You've got your out-of-nowhere unheralded minor-league free agent in Miguel Gonzalez. You've got young players who have previously struggled, like Chris Tillman and Zach Britton, taking steps forward. And you've got a lights-out relief corps. The O's rank fourth in the AL with a 3.17 bullpen ERA. Baltimore didn't go on a spending spree to repair a broken pitching staff. They got creative, showed patience with young arms and benefited from some good fortune. There's no reason to rule out a similar scenario for the Twins, especially when you consider that the GM Ryan has made numerous good moves since retaking the helm (even if that's not reflected in the team's record) and he figures to have a decent chunk of money to spend this winter. "Be like Baltimore." For many years it would have been an insane model for success, but for the Twins and Terry Ryan, it will make for a great offseason formula. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hernandez.jpg Five spots in next year's rotation. One guy locked in. It's hard to look at the daunting uncertainty in Minnesota's rotation as a good thing, but there are some fringe benefits to the situation. One is that it may be easier for Terry Ryan to lure in pitchers who are left without a seat and forced to sign minor-league contracts when the music stops on this offseason's free agent class. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] There could be quite a few of those guys standing around in January and February. While every pitcher would like a guaranteed big-league deal, there may not be enough to go around for this deep group, especially considering the risk involved with some of the bottom-of-the-barrel names below. These are just a few examples of pitchers that could miss out on big-league deals due to miserable 2012 campaigns. There's virtually no risk involved with a minor-league contract, and many of these pitchers would carry considerable reward. Roberto Hernandez - RHP 2012 Stats: 14.1 IP, 0-3, 7.53 ERA, 2/3 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP It's been a tough year for the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. In the aftermath of his false identity scandal, he spent the first half of the season in the Dominican Republic waiting on a U.S. visa, then served a three-week suspension upon his return to the States in July. When he finally rejoined the Indians, he pitched horribly for three starts and then missed all of September with an ankle injury. Ouch. Hernandez has plenty of baggage and has certainly been more bad than good in his big-league career, but he was effective as recently as 2010, when he put up a 3.77 ERA in 210 innings, and at 32 he's hardly ancient. His career ground ball rate of 58.5 percent is elite. Chien-Ming Wang - RHP 2012 Stats: 32.1 IP, 2-3, 6.68 ERA, 15/15 K/BB, 2.01 WHIP The Nationals signed Wang to a one-year, $4 million deal last offseason – a sizable sum considering that he'd pitched only 104 innings in the prior three years thanks to shoulder problems. The good news is that Wang's shoulder stayed intact this year. The bad news is… well, everything else. He suffered a hamstring injury in spring training, then after returning in May he missed time due a hip injury, and between those drawn-out ailments he struggled mightily in both the majors and minors. He hasn't been able to stay healthy since 2007, but it's worth noting that he won 19 games in back-to-back years for the Yankees and at 32 there's still a chance he could rediscover that heavy sinker. Jonathan Sanchez - LHP 2012 Stats: 64.2 IP, 1-9, 8.07 ERA, 45/53 K/BB, 2.09 WHIP After acquiring him from the Giants during the offseason for Melky Cabrera, the Royals watched Sanchez absolutely implode, posting a 7.76 ERA over 12 starts while yielding a .937 OPS and handing out more walks than strikeouts. They unloaded him on the Rockies midway through the summer and he was even worse during three starts for Colorado before being shut down for the year. It was one of the worst campaigns we've seen from a pitcher in some time, but Sanchez had been an effective starter in San Francisco for three years prior to his trade to Kansas City, overcoming his shaky control with a gaudy strikeout rate to post a 3.75 ERA from 2009 to 2011. He'll turn only 30 this offseason. Does any of that previous ability still reside within him? Bartolo Colon - RHP 2012 Stats: 152.1 IP, 10-9, 3.43 ERA, 91/23 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP Colon is a different type of case from the guys above in that the anticipated lack of interest in him this winter has nothing to do with his performance over the past season. He was actually very good for the A's… up until he was suspended for 50 games in August after testing positive for Testosterone. Following his travesty of a Cy Young in 2005, Colon failed to reach even 100 innings in four consecutive years and was then out of the game in 2010. He came back last year with the Yankees at age 38 and was shockingly good, and this year with the A's he was even better. Of course, now we might know why. Tough to see the Twins giving him a chance, but who knows, maybe he can keep the magic working even without the juice. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: terryryan.jpg Ask Terry Ryan what his payroll limitation is for next year and he'll tell you that he doesn't view payroll as a limitation. It's his way of sidestepping an important question, possibly at the behest of an ownership that has notoriously shied away from big spending. Ryan can downplay the importance of allotted budget and the significance of $85 million versus $100 million all he wants, but there's no escaping the fact that his level of financial flexibility will be a key determinant in the extent to which he's able to address the roster's various deficiencies, particularly in the short term.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Because when you have to scour external avenues for players as the Twins clearly must, money talks, and more money means better, more reliable players. That's especially true when you're trying to lure said players to a potentially undesirable destination, such as a flyover territory club with nearly 200 losses over the past two seasons. The above seems obvious, but Ryan would apparently have us believe that it's a minor factor in his offseason planning. He would point, I'm sure, to the numerous teams with sub-$90 million payrolls that have found their way into the playoffs. He would likely point to successful teams that he himself assembled for much less than that. But these are different times. Competitiveness in the AL Central is kicking up a notch with the Tigers throwing cash around and the Royals looking more serious about contending. Meanwhile, the struggling Twins don't have a wealth of MLB-ready minor leaguers to step in and help turn things around on the cheap. They're currently caught in a transitional period where quality contributors of the past -- guys like Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn -- have either moved on or ceased to be effective, and there's no "next wave" internally poised to take over the reigns. Not next year, not the year after. This farm system is bereft of high-end arms, and even if you assume a best-case scenario with the likes of Kyle Gibson and Liam Hendriks, they're still a couple pieces short of respectability in the rotation. If the Twins want to improve their decimated pitching corps to the point where it has a chance to be even a mid-tier unit any time in the near future, they'll have to hit the open market with authority, and early indications suggest that it might take a sizable chunk of change to to do so. The old bargain bin route would be the essential equivalent to a white flag. Ryan talks often about exploring all avenues, but even with savvy scouting and great luck, you're not going to find more than a couple impact players through minor-league deals, waiver pickups and the Rule 5 draft. The front office needs to think bigger, and I'm sure they're aware of that, regardless of any posturing to the contrary. There's just no way around it: to upend this two-year stretch of misery, Ryan will need to spend. He'll need to spend wisely, of course, but he will absolutely need to spend. The freedom he's given to do so should serve as a simple, clear indicator of the ownership's desire to right the ship in short order. Click here to view the article

After watching their lineup get decimated by injuries last season, the Twins were hoping they'd have better luck keeping position players healthy in the new campaign. So far, so good in that regard. There have been no broken bones, no bilateral leg weakness, no reemergence of concussion symptoms. Unfortunately, pitching has been a different story. The Twins lost Joel Zumaya, their projected top right-handed setup option, and Scott Baker, their potential No. 1 starter, before either threw a pitch in the regular season. Nick Blackburn will miss at least his next start due to shoulder soreness and Glen Perkins has been shut down temporarily due to a strained forearm. These injuries are especially unfortunate in that they are hitting players at the top of the depth chart rather than the bottom.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Baker, Zumaya, Perkins and Blackburn are established MLB talents that the Twins were counting on to carry weight on a questionable staff. Attempting to fill holes with the same marginal pitchers who were rejected during spring training isn't likely to pay dividends. Instead, the Twins should take advantage of an opportunity afforded to them by their status as a retooling American League cellar-dweller. Up until the end of April, waiver claim priority is dictated by last year's records, meaning that the Twins get first dibs on any player waived by an AL club. At the beginning of May, the waiver order determinant flips over to this year's records, but the Twins should remain near the top of the list at that point unless they start rattling off wins over the next couple weeks. This is an auxiliary benefit of Minnesota's excessive losing in 2011 and early in 2012 that should not be overlooked. At this point in the season, many intriguing names tend to pass through the waiver wire as teams make early roster adjustments. Download attachment: thompson.jpg There simply aren't many pitchers on the Twins' staff that Terry Ryan should be unwilling to expose to waivers if it means making room for a young hurler with some upside. Two such examples that have been discussed on the Twins Daily forum recently are Rich Thompson of the Angels and Michael Bowden of the Red Sox. Thompson, 27, is a right-hander who posted a 3.00 ERA and 9.33 K/9 rate for Los Angeles last year, though a decrease in velocity this spring contributed to his being designated for assignment. Bowden is only 25 and was a Baseball America Top 100 prospect in three consecutive seasons from 2007-09. These are just two examples of players with more ability than numerous members of Minnesota's current staff, and there are bound to be more hitting the wire in the coming weeks. The Twins certainly aren't in a position to be looking for short-term bullpen fixes, but if they can bring in a young player with a chance to fill a need for years to come, that would be a big win. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: TD Only.jpg The following are examples of comments we've received on blog posts over the past few days. The first came from Twins Daily member roger responding to my post earlier this week about the Zumaya injury: Is the new Twins Daily going to be another site where everyone 'bad mouths' everything Mr. Ryan and the organization does? Your site has only been around for a couple days and I for one am already tired of all the bitching! ... Last time I checked, spring training is less than a week old. Lets give management time to evaluate what they have before we all jump on the sky is falling bandwagon...please! The second came from StarTribune.com user "njc264isback" on Seth's bullpen article there today: Honestly can't read any entries from Stohs without asking myself, "I wonder how many times Seth will apply to work for the Twins?" This guy is trying so hard to get in with them, I wish they'd just hire him already so I didn't have to read his cheerleading and apologizing for them anymore. Look, I'm a huge fan of reader interaction and I value pretty much every comment received – even the ones I vehemently disagree with. But I hate comments like these ones. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] When you've got a multi-contributor site like Twins Daily, you're inherently going to get a wide array of viewpoints, perspectives and styles. Different writers take different approaches with their craft. Seth's a guy who nearly always writes with a positive slant and uses lots of exclamation points. I pride myself on being a straight-shooter who looks at things objectively despite being a lifelong fan. I like to examine matters critically and I'm not shy about voicing my disagreement when I think it's warranted (although I would absolutely challenge the notion that my writing is consistently negative; of my last three posts, one laid out a realistic blueprint for the Twins to contend and one concluded that this year's bench should be more well rounded than past iterations). Our tones are very different, but neither should be shunned. We'll tackle topics from our own – sometimes conflicting – unique angles, and so will John and Parker. That's the beauty of this site. Readers will have the opportunity to take in a multitude of different viewpoints and are encouraged to impact the conversation by sharing their own. Use Twins Daily however you like. Share your feedback. Contribute. Just please, please don't endlessly complain about the tone of certain writers being too positive or negative. That's not a path to constructive discussion. If you really can't handle reading a little well-evidenced optimism or thoughtful criticism, authors' names are very clearly displayed on the front page and it's easy to be selective about what you choose to read. Click here to view the article

* We've reached the end of January and Bronson Arroyo still hasn't found a home. In fact, according to the veteran right-hander, he still hasn't even received an official offer. As Jayson Stark notes in his column, that's rather surprising considering that Arroyo is one of only two MLB pitchers (along with Mark Buehrle) to log 199 or more innings in each of the last nine seasons. When baseball teams are committing huge sums of guaranteed money to pitchers, durability is a primary consideration, and few hurlers in the game can boast a track record that compares to Arroyo's. On top of that, he wasn't offered arbitration by the Reds so signing him would not require the forfeiture of a draft pick. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] And yet, there he sits. There were reports earlier in the offseason that the Twins were gaining momentum in talks with the righty, but apparently no contract was actually offered. There has been no recent buzz connecting the two sides. I've felt pretty firmly that the Twins were done adding pitchers after they signed with Mike Pelfrey (with the exception of a possible minor-league contract for someone like Johan Santana), so even if Arroyo's price keeps dropping, I can't see him ending up here. However, it's starting to look like some club is going to end up getting a reasonable deal on this proven veteran workhorse. I never would have guessed that at the outset of the offseason. Download attachment: guerrier.jpg * Ryan and the Twins continue to take fliers on former players who -- at least based on recent history -- appear to be washed up. The latest is Matt Guerrier, who joins Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel as players to rejoin the organization in the wake of seasons that were marred by injury, poor performance or (in Bartlett's case) not actually playing. I've got no problem with the strategy. How could you? There's no risk here. The Twins are guaranteeing essentially nothing to these players -- not even a spot on the 40-man roster -- and each has shown at some point within the past few years that he can play at a high level. The Twins are already a little crowded in the bullpen, giving Guerrier a much tougher path to making the roster than Bartlett, who's trying to catch on in a shaky infield, or Kubel, who looks like the odds-on favorite to be regular DH despite his brutal 2013 campaign. Guerrier is presently rehabbing from flexor tendon surgery in his elbow last August. That's a fairly significant operation, especially for a 35-year-old, so he's not exactly a great bet to come back and make an impact. With that said, he has remained largely effective when on the mound, so if he can indeed make a full recovery, he could end up being a great depth grab. * The Twins announced on Thursday the unconditional release of Andrew Albers, officially clearing way for the left-hander to head to Korea and continue his career. The deal was held up a bit by some procedural complications, but it has been apparent for a while now that Albers was on his way out and -- as I wrote last week -- that's the right move for both him and the Twins. His departure leaves a spot open on the 40-man roster, but I wouldn't expect it to be filled very quickly. With just a couple weeks remaining until spring training, the Twins now have flexibility to make any late additions; a bench bat for the infield would seem to be the most likely. There is also a good chance they'll need space on the 40-man in order to add Kubel and/or any other non-roster invitees who emerge in spring training. Albers could have very well been the odd man out in such a scenario anyway. Click here to view the article

For three straight years, the refrain for hopeful Twins fans has been the same: Keep waiting, help is on the way. That can be difficult to accept, especially when few signs of progress are evident on the field. The Twins lost 99 games in 2011, and they've lost 96 in each season since. It wouldn't be too surprising if they lost 90-plus again this year. So why watch? Fortunately, you don't have to look far to find reasons. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Letting The Kids Play First and foremost, that help we were talking about earlier? It's arriving. Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are both slated as regulars from the get-go, and Kyle Gibson is in the rotation. Josmil Pinto should appear in the lineup several times per week. These are some of the premier talents the farm system has produced, and they will now have an opportunity to significantly impact outcomes for the major-league club right from the start. More importantly, Alex Meyer and Byron Buxton are not far behind. Download attachment: buxton319.jpg Meyer will start the year in Triple-A and Buxton -- who rocketed through two levels last year -- will get a late start in Double-A. Either player is a credible candidate for a first-half call-up, offering contingencies that have never been available to the Twins in the past. It's not often that an organization has the best position player prospect in the game and one of the best pitching prospects, both simultaneously on the verge of reaching the majors. These are the things you should embrace if you're having a hard time getting excited about the group that is set to kick off the season at 3:10 on Monday afternoon. Admittedly, that group faces some daunting question marks. Where Are The Runs? Will Jason Kubel and Josh Willingham bounce back from rough years and hit again in the middle of the order? Will Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia make the adjustments necessary to excel? Will Trevor Plouffe's power return while Brian Dozier's stays? Will Joe Mauer's production improve with a move away from catcher? And can this mishmash bench provide any punch? All these players have shown an ability to perform in the past, so in a way you can see why the Twins are pinning hope on them. For a realist, though, it's difficult to believe that enough of those scenarios will play out the right way for the team to compete, especially after a spring that sent pretty much all the wrong signals. Rotation Rebuilt It will be a shame if the Twins can't score enough, because the pitching staff is finally looking respectable. Minnesota enters the season with a rotation that carries a decent track record and solid upside. It seems unlikely that the team will fly through arms as rapidly as in the past few years, and even if that's the case there is now a level of depth that simply hasn't been available before. At the very least, having starters that don't routinely dig early five-run holes should make the games much more watchable, and if needs should become evident, there are prospects coming and there is a lot of money available to spend. So help is on the way. Unfortunately, it might not be here as immediately as we'd like. The Transition Continues Miguel Sano's Tommy John development was a devastating blow that sadly reflects the present status of the Minnesota Twins -- amazing things are coming, with the potential to fundamentally change a losing culture, but we're just going to have to wait a little bit longer as the goalposts keep inching backward. This year, players currently on the roster and ones that will join along the way have an opportunity to accelerate that timeline, providing a much-needed jolt to a snakebitten franchise that sorely needs one. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: josmilpinto.jpg Coming into spring training, I don't think that Ron Gardenhire and the Twins were planning on bringing Josmil Pinto north with the big-league club. The young backstop had been awfully impressive with the bat during a September audition in 2013, sure, but Twins officials commented repeatedly throughout the offseason that he was still somewhat raw and his defensive game needed work. That was a fair position to hold. Pinto was a bit of a slow developer in the minors, and had played only 19 games in Triple-A. As Chris Parmelee had demonstrated two years earlier, you can only put so much stock into a great September debut in the majors. As spring camp unfolded, Pinto hit, and -- for the most part -- no one else did. With the offense looking rather shabby, the Twins decided that they needed Pinto's bat, and that turned out to be very wise indeed as the catcher's stellar April helped fuel a surprisingly strong start for the lineup. Since the end of April, though, Pinto has quietly faded. Dating back to May 1st, he's hitting just .200/.227/.329, and after posting an even 17-to-17 K/BB ratio in the first month, his plate approach has deteriorated substantially, with 19 strikeouts against three walks in 75 plate appearances. Pinto's decline may be attributable, in part, to his sporadic playing time -- he has started only 18 of the team's 39 games since the start of May -- but some holes in his swing have also become evident, and it's clear that his defense needs work. He'll require regular reps in order to improve these areas, and he was having a tough enough time finding those with the Twins before Kendrys Morales came aboard. Since the Twins are paying him a lot of money, you can bet that Morales is going to get the vast majority of starts at DH, and Kurt Suzuki has earned the opportunity to start most of the time at catcher -- he's simply been a much better player than Pinto, all-around. So the writing is on the wall. Pinto is going to head back to Triple-A, and he'll be replaced by a player like Eric Fryer who can more justifiably spend most of his time on the bench. The only question at this point is this: What are the Twins waiting for? Pinto is a very important long-term piece for this club, and letting him languish on the bench as he has for much of the past several weeks isn't going to aid his development. I suspect that the Twins are simply waiting to make sure that Morales is up to speed after his long layoff before taking away the best alternative option at DH. A few good games from the newly acquired slugger should be all they need to make that determination. What do you think? Are you OK with Pinto heading back to Triple-A to play regularly, or do you believe the Twins should keep him around and find ways to get him into their lineup? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Trout.jpg The Big Picture When the Angels skidded to an 18-25 start, many in Anaheim were hitting the panic button. After the most aggressive offseason of any club in baseball, the offense was flatlining – thanks in large part to the remarkable struggles of LA's marquee acquisition: Albert Pujols. Akin to the 2006 Twins, who reversed course after a 25-33 start to win 96 games, the Angels have gone on a midseason tear, with rookie and MVP frontrunner Mike Trout leading the way. They are 5.5 games behind the Rangers in the AL West, but lead the race for the top wild-card spot. At this point, they've got to be feeling pretty good about their chances of making the postseason. Why They Will Trade With the Twins Of course, when you splurge for $316 million over the winter, simply making the postseason isn't enough. The Angels have championship aspirations, and with the Rangers and Yankees both looking especially strong, they'll need any edge they can get. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Los Angeles will likely be looking to upgrade the lineup, where there are a few clear weak spots. While Trout and Torii Hunter are holding down two outfield positions, the the final corner has been hurting, with Peter Bourjos hitting .237 and Vernon Wells looking unappealing as a full-time option when he returns from the disabled list. Adding a guy like, say, Denard Span or Josh Willingham would certainly round out that group nicely while pushing the lineup closer to the level of a Texas or New York. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins Pitching is a major strength for the Halos, so unless they're looking for a fourth weapon in the rotation to complement Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Dan Haren, they seem unlikely to be major players for Francisco Liriano. Aside from left field, the biggest weakness in the Angel lineup is catcher, where Bobby Wilson has been getting regular tread with a .483 OPS. Ryan Doumit certainly looks like a potential fit, but the Twins seem unlikely to move him after handing him a two-year extension. Summary The Angels are front line contenders and are certainly in position to buy at the deadline, but they're red-hot right now and it's not clear their need is great enough to drop big prospects for a guy like Span or Liriano. Then again, with expectations as higher as they are, who knows where their desperation may lead. Read on to find a few prospects in LA's system that could intrigue the Twins should Jerry Dipoto come calling (sadly, I somehow doubt Trout is an option). --- Potential Trade Candidates Garrett Richards – RHP He was considered the organization's top pitching prospect entering the season, but he's scuffled in Triple-A and the majors this year. Still, his numbers in the minors up until this point cannot be ignored and he works in the mid-90s with his fastball. He's still only 24. Nick Maronde – LHP Another promising young hurler who has looked good this year, flashing strikeout stuff and good control in Single-A at age 22, though he missed a couple months due to a strained lat. John Hellweg – RHP Hellweg is a nice prospect in his own right. His stock his has dropped this year with a good-not-great performance in Double-A as a 23-year-old (3.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 84/56 K/BB in 111 IP), but that could be just what makes him him gettable. Ariel Pena – RHP Pitching on the same team as Hellweg, and posting slightly better numbers at the same age. Neither Hellweg, Maronde nor Pena are top-tier prospects, but they're all fairly similar in quality and their redundancy may make them more expendable in the eyes of Dipoto. Click here to view the article

If there's one area of the Twins roster that you can look at and feel completely comfortable, both now and going forward, it's the bullpen. On the left-handed side, their best arm is the closer, but they also have Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar, with Pedro Hernandez also offering some potential. In terms of right-handers, there's Jared Burton and Casey Fien topping the depth chart, with Anthony Swarzak anchoring the long role. That's six relief jobs that you can already consider claimed for next year, meaning that there will probably be only one opening available for the taking.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] With Josh Roenicke outrighted and likely out of the picture, many contenders stand in line to join the bullpen as useful right-handed relievers, both in the immediate future and down the line. Let's take a look at them. Michael Tonkin, 23 Download attachment: tonkin.jpg Tonkin's outstanding major-league debut this season flew under the radar, at least from my perspective. He came up for one appearance in July, then another in August, and got a more extended look in September at a time when many fans had stopped paying attention. I personally saw Tonkin pitch maybe twice in the final month, because I was watching fewer games at that point and, when I did watch, I often tuned out after the Twins fell into an early hole. (Interestingly, Tonkin made nine appearances this season and didn't pitch in a single winning effort.) Tonkin didn't pitch quite as well as his stellar 0.79 ERA suggests, because he also allowed five unearned runs, but his peripherals were solid (1.06 WHIP, 10/3 K/BB ratio in 11 1/3 innings) and he flashed a powerful fastball that averaged nearly 95 MPH. He has established himself over the past couple seasons as the organization's best relief prospect, with setup or even closer potential, and is easily the favorite to claim the open spot in next year's bullpen. Ryan Pressly, 24 That Pressly spent the entire 2013 season in the majors was more a function of necessity than his performance. The Twins needed to keep the Rule 5 draftee on the 25-man roster all year long in order to keep him in the organization and, to his credit, Pressly made it fairly easy to do so. Over 49 appearances he totaled 76 2/3 innings, operating as a hybrid middle/long reliever and achieving solid results with a 3.87 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Based on his lack of strikeouts (5.8 K/9) and his mediocre control (3.2 BB/9) it's tough to see the right-hander maintaining that effectiveness long-term unless he makes noticeable improvements, but at least the organization will be able to keep him around and figure what they want to do with him. There's been some talk of moving Pressly back into a starting role, even though he struggled mightily as a starter in the minors before being transitioned to the bullpen. A.J. Achter, 25 It's unknown whether Achter will eventually make an impact in the majors, but he has already easily surpassed his draft status simply by emerging as a legitimate prospect. A 46th-round pick out of Michigan State University back in 2010, Achter has registered a 3.17 ERA in four minor-league seasons while averaging 9.6 K/9. This year, he pitched well enough in the first half at New Britain to earn a promotion to Rochester, where he finished with a 3.04 ERA in 16 appearances. Now, the 25-year-old is participating in the Arizona Fall League, where he has a chance to further establish himself as a contender to join next year's relief corps. His biggest obstacle at this point is command; in 60 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year, he issued 33 walks. Zach Jones, 22 Joining Achter in the AFL is Jones, who is farther away from the majors but also possesses considerably more upside. Acquired in the fourth round of the 2012 draft, Jones has barely gotten his pro career started but has already demonstrated the ability to dominate, with 104 strikeouts and a 1.97 ERA in his first 68 2/3 innings in the Twins organization. Much like Achter, he needs to refine his control (5.1 BB/9 rate), but he has proven almost unhittable as opponents batted just .172 against him this year in Ft. Myers. Trevor May, 24 This name is a bit of a wild card in that May has worked as a starter for nearly his entire career, and the Twins are surely hoping he can continue to develop in that capacity, but many believe his long-term future is as a reliever. May certainly has MLB-caliber stuff but his command and stamina have been lacking and he didn't do enough this year in his second turn at Double-A to alleviate any such concerns. In 27 starts with New Britain, he averaged just 5 2/3 innings per start. From a 24-year-old repeating Double-A, you would certainly like to see more consistently deep outings. As a reliever, May could maximize his strengths while better hiding his weaknesses. But of course, with their dire shortage of starters in the high minors, the Twins will likely show patience with him in his current role for the time being. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: medicinefordummies.jpg Last week, Denard Span finally landed on the disabled list one day before rosters expanded and 18 days after initially suffering a shoulder injury back in early August. Not the medical staff's finest hour, probably, but the uproar I saw amongst casual fans and hardcores alike sort of left me dumbfounded. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] My Twitter timeline exploded with rants against the team doctors. Commenters here at Twins Daily vented in similar fashion. Clearly folks are fed up with the strange injury situations that continue to arise with this club. That's understandable. Still, I'm wondering if we haven't reached a point where people are jumping the gun a bit to crucify the medical staff for every mishap. Here's a fact: medicine is an inexact science. Here's another: the members of the Twins' medical staff are highly trained experts who have reached an elite level in their profession. Most of them have been around for more than the past two years, yet the implication seems to be that since the start of 2011 they've just forgotten how to properly diagnose injuries. The truth is that this staff made mistakes before 2011 – as does every other staff in the league – and they went largely unnoticed because the Twins weren't one of the worst teams in baseball. My sense is that the higher incidence of injuries in the past two years and the club's struggles overall are causing a lot of people to exaggerate the role of the medical staff in lingering ailments and goofy DL management. It wouldn't be a unique case. As an example, let's look at this latest situation with Span. The fact that it took the doctors so long to properly diagnose his sprained sternoclavicular joint is concerning, but the outfielder didn't make their jobs easier by backing out of an MRI due to claustrophobia. Additionally, we simply don't know whether the Twins would have shown the same patience and deference to Span if the games actually mattered and they were legitimately hurting themselves by tying up that 25th roster spot. They weren't. Sure, there have been examples where the team's medical staff has pretty clearly erred. Those extend back past 2011. Like I said, it's an inexact science. But frustration seems to have some people believing that we're dealing with a bunch of quacks who have completely lost the ability to competently do their jobs, all while the numerous execs running the organization have failed to notice or care. Pretty ridiculous notion born out of a scapegoat mentality, if you ask me. To be clear, I'm not saying that the Twins' medical staff compares well to the rest of the league. They might even be among the worst. But I don't believe we have the evidence to make that assessment. Judging a doctor's performance isn't like judging a pitcher, or hitter, or manager, or GM. Each situation is unique and there are lot more factors in play than some would assume. Maybe after this season ends the front office will clear out the entire medical staff and bring in new faces across the board. I'd say that's unlikely, and I doubt it would meaningfully resolve any of the real problems plaguing this organization. Click here to view the article