Nick Nelson

Download attachment: josh-johnson.jpg So far in this Free Agent Pitcher Profile series, I have taken a look at four different high-profile names on the market, all of whom strike me as logical fits for the Twins for specific reasons. Tim Lincecum has his strikeout proficiency. Phil Hughes has his youth. Ubaldo Jimenez has his ace upside. Ervin Santana has his stinginess with hits and base runners. Josh Johnson has the potential to offer all the above. But he's also coming off a worse season than any of the aforementioned hurlers, and he recently underwent "minor" surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] (We saw how that type of thing went with Vance Worley and Scott Diamond this year.) Because of those factors, he figures to be far more affordable than the rest of the high-end free agent crop, and probably won't require a long-term commitment, meaning he might be right be in the Twins' wheelhouse. Why Does He Fit? For a seven-year stretch with the Marlins from 2006 through 2012, Johnson was one of the premier performers in the National League, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while allowing just 59 home runs in 904 innings. The righty routinely posted strong strikeout rates, induced a fair share of grounders, and was on multiple occasions a legitimate Cy Young candidate (especially in 2010 when he finished with a 2.30 ERA). When he's healthy and at his best, Johnson has been a true ace. He doesn't turn 30 until January so age isn't a major concern, and while arm issues bogged him down this season the hope is that an offseason elbow clean-up will restore him to his previous level of effectiveness. Given his situation, Johnson seems almost certain to take a one-year make-good deal. That involves little risk, and while such a short contract wouldn't seem to fit with the Twins' long-term rebuilding plan, a strong bounceback season would give the club a lot of options. They could flip him before the deadline for prospects, or seek to lock him up with a long-term deal that would entrench him at the top of their rotation for several years. It's worth noting that Johnson was born in Minneapolis, so he might be slightly more inclined to view the Twins as a landing spot, though that shouldn't be assumed. Why Doesn't He Fit? Johnson's health is a major question mark, and that's nothing new. Durability concerns have plagued his entire career. He's reached 200 innings only once. Since first becoming a full-time big-leaguer in 2006, he has averaged fewer than 20 starts per year. And now he's coming off a season in which he battled forearm pain, posted a hideous 6.20 ERA and finished with just 81 innings. As he leaves the Blue Jays, Johnson has about as many red flags attached to him as a Canadian parade. That could repel a Twins club seeking to add reliability to a rotation that had only one member throw more than 152 innings in 2013. What Will He Cost? There seems to be widespread agreement that Johnson will seek a one-year deal, because it simply doesn't make much sense for him to do anything else. Nobody's going to make a huge commitment to a guy with an ominous medical situation, but Johnson has enough talent and track record that he could probably strike it big in a year if he returns to form in 2014. So what it will likely come down to is who can offer the most attractive situation for him this year. Money is part of that equation. In the Offseason Handbook, we guessed that he'd end up getting $7 million. More than likely he'll prefer to link up with a contender, but perhaps the Twins can sway him by significantly outbidding other interested parties. Jim Pohlad himself has said that he's willing to spend "any amount of money" on a current year contract, which would seemingly indicate that if Terry Ryan likes Johnson, the general manager will have approval to do whatever it takes to bring aboard the sometimes injured, sometimes elite starter. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mlbdraftmanaea.jpg Who IS This Guy? He might have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in this year's draft class. A few years ago Sean Manaea was a raw high school kid with bad grades and no first-round aspirations, but now at age 21 he's in the conversation to become the first lefty pitcher drafted No. 1 overall since David Price in 2007. At 6'5" and 230 lbs, Manaea has the ability to reach the mid-90s from the left side, making him a rare specimen.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He has progressed rapidly in three seasons at Indiana State University, adding new pitches to a repertoire that essentially consisted of onlya fastball when he first arrived on campus. He reportedly learned a split-change from a teammate late in his sophomore season, right before participating in the Cape Cod League, where an incredible showing sealed his billing as an elite draft prospect. Pitching in that collegiate summer league last year, Manaea struck out 85 hitters in 57 1/3 innings and walked just seven while registering a microscopic 1.22 ERA. He received the CCL's Outstanding Prospect Award, which in the past has gone to such players as Matt Wieters, Mark Teixeira and Billy Wagner. Manaea is following up that sterling performance with his best season yet at Indiana State. Through 12 starts, he's 5-4 with a 1.47 ERA and 93-to-27 K/BB ratio in 73 1/3 innings. Who Could He Be? With his size and velocity, Manaea offers what baseball evaluators crave. A scout quoted in one article marveled: "You really don't see lefties throw that hard. They're considered freaks and when you see someone projectable to be huge, like him, that's what you're looking for." He's grown so much -- both physically and mentally -- in his three years at college that it's difficult to put a cap on Manaea's upside. If he can stay healthy and continue to improve certain aspects of his game, he's got everything it takes to be a fast-tracked, top-of-rotation MLB starter. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? The history of collegiate pitchers taken in the top five picks portends an accelerated timetable. Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen and Trevor Bauer, who were taken successively with the top three picks in the 2011 draft, are all either in the majors or knocking on the door two years later. Kevin Gausman, the LSU right-hander who went fourth overall last year, is already in Double-A and dominating. Then again, Manaea can hardly be described as polished. He's still refining his secondary pitches and is said to have some issues with repeating his delivery and controlling the run game. His estimated time of arrival is probably a bit further off than fellow highly ranked collegiate hurlers Jonathan Gray and Mark Appel, but 2014 is not out of the question if things shake out right. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… Manaea has all the physical attributes needed to become a dominant big-league pitcher but there are some questions regarding his personality and maturity. He's an extremely laid-back guy who nearly missed eligibility for college due to poor high school grades, which he admits were "due to pure laziness." He's come a long way since then, but will he be able to embrace the work ethic required to become an elite player at the pro level? Additionally, Manaea has exhibited some issues this year that have dropped his stock a bit. Hip soreness caused him to miss some time and, while he flashed 95 mph heat in the Cape Cod League last summer, he's been clocked more frequently in the low 90s this season. Velocity drops are always somewhat alarming for a player his age. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… The southpaw profiles as exactly what the rebuilding Twins need: a high-upside arm with the potential to be major-league ready pretty quickly. Although he isn't as advanced as some of the other pitchers available, Manaea has all the traits you'd like to see in a top draft pick and would be an excellent addition to Minnesota's suddenly burgeoning core of pitching prospects. Click here to view the article

* It's funny how the timing works out sometimes. On Monday, I wrote a post here discussing the offense's struggles, noting that they stemmed largely from a lack of production from Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. At that point, both lineup cornerstones had contributed minimally, which was a big reason the Twins were averaging just 3.1 runs over their first nine games. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] My conclusion: "It's too early to panic with either of these players, but up to this point they haven't really shown signs that they're ready to reverse course after dismal 2011 campaigns. It would be awfully nice if they could begin doing so this week in New York." Sure enough, the M&M boys answered the call in the Big Apple. In the four-game series, the tandem combined to go 11-for-27 with three doubles and three homers. Mauer started lifting the ball and Morneau generally took much better at-bats. Not coincidentally, the Twins averaged 5.5 runs and came away with their most successful series in the Bronx in over a decade. Obviously the turnaround had nothing to do my post, but like I said, it's funny how these things work out sometimes. * In a similar vein, I shot out the following tweet during Wednesday night's game after Matt Capps served up a home run to Derek Jeter: "Matt Capps has struck out one of the 19 batters he's faced this year. #WhyIsHeClosing" Naturally, Capps proceeded to immediately strike out Curtis Granderson before retiring Mark Teixeira on a deep fly to close out a one-run victory. Yet, in this case, the point still stands. While he's managed to convert all three of his save chances thus far, Capps' inability to miss bats is a recipe for disaster in the ninth inning. Download attachment: matt capps.jpg I'll be honest: I'm not convinced that whatever arm ailment was plaguing the right-hander last summer has gone away. In my mind, there were two clear indicators that something was wrong with Capps last year: A) A decrease in velocity. His fastball went from averaging 93.6 MPH in 2009 and 94.0 MPH in 2010 to 92.9 in 2011. A huge drop in strikeout rate. Probably not totally unrelated to the dashed velo, but Capps went from striking out 18.7 of the batters he faced in the first six seasons of his big-league career (including 19.3 percent in 2010) to just 12.4 percent in 2011. So far this year, Capps is averaging 92.6 MPH with his fastball and has struck out 9.5 percent of the batters he's faced after fanning six of 51 in spring training. He has only pitched five innings thus far, so the small sample caveat obviously applies in a big way, but these are troubling signs for a guy who was rendered ineffective as closer last year by an injury that was not addressed in any way. Hopefully he responds to my harping on these issues in the same way Mauer and Morneau did. * In the grand scheme of things, it's tough to be too upset about the Twins' current 4-9 record. Obviously the season-opening sweep in Baltimore was beyond ugly, but since then the Twins have gone 4-6 against three elite teams. They won a series at home against a very good Angels club and split in New York against their longtime tormenters. While the Twins weren't able to come up with a win against the Rangers, they were generally competitive in that series and Texas has been essentially unstoppable this year -- they're now 11-2 after wiping out the Tigers on Thursday night. If the Twins are still only five games under .500 when they come out of this treacherous opening stretch, they'll be in decent position going forward. Of course, if they don't start pitching better, that's all moot. Click here to view the article

Likely Starter: Ben Revere 2011 Stats: .267/.310/.309, 0 HR, 30 RBI, 56 R, 34/43 SB Download attachment: benreverespring.jpg Potential Backups: Trevor Plouffe, Darin Mastroianni, Brian Dinkelman Last year the Twins were the least effective team in all of baseball at converting batted balls into outs. With a pitching staff that allows a ton of contact, that's an enormously troubling statistic.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Lining up Ben Revere as the regular left fielder should certainly benefit the Twins on the defensive front. He and Denard Span can team up to track down almost everything hit in the air to the left side of Target Field's spacious outfield. But how much are the Twins giving up offensively by going with Revere as their starter in left? And if he doesn't start reaching base with greater frequency, how long will his leash be? I've seen plenty of skepticism regarding Revere's long-term outlook, and it's not hard to see why. Lacking power, patience and arm strength, his skill set is clearly limiting – particularly for a corner outfielder, which is what he'll be as long as Span is holding down center. Yet, I'm pretty bullish on Revere, for a number of reasons. While his weaknesses are well established, he also has some promising strengths. He's a contact hitter who gets out of the box and down the line with extreme quickness, and he is blazing fast. He set a Twins rookie record with 34 stolen bases last year, and his range in the outfield is truly spectacular. At 23, I think he still has room to grow. Even if he's one of the best defensive left fielders in the league, the .619 OPS that Revere posted in 2011 simply won't cut it. He needs to elevate that number, and since he's not likely to start drawing walks or racking up extra-base hits, he'll need to do it by significantly improving his batting average. He can help himself in that area by lifting the ball more (his 68.5 percent ground ball rate led the Twins last year) and bunting for hits (he's only attempted 16 career bunts). The alternative to Revere in left, when the Twins face a tough lefty or when Ron Gardenhire wants more offense, will be Trevor Plouffe. A first-round draft pick back in 2004, Plouffe had a breakout season in the minors last year, posting a 1.019 OPS in Rochester, and he showed decent pop during his time in the majors with 27 extra-base hits in 320 plate appearances. Defensively Plouffe is a major question mark, given that he'd never played in the outfield prior to 2011, and his bat is hardly a proven commodity. He does offer some interesting offensive upside, though, and at the very least he's a nice guy to have around as a pseudo-platoon partner for Revere. I'm probably higher than most on both Plouffe and Revere, but there's no denying the fact that one is a converted shortstop who never hit much prior to last year and one profiles as a prototypical fourth outfielder. It's difficult to envision left field as a major strength between these two, but both are young players who offer very different benefits and I'm fairly intrigued to see how this little experiment will turn out. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Revere: .280/.330/.340, 1 HR, 30 RBI Click here to view the article

As we count down the days until pitchers and catchers report to Ft. Myers, I'm going to run a series of columns this week detailing some of the less high-profile story lines worth following in the 2012 season. We've heard plenty about the redemption quests of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span and Francisco Liriano; in the coming days I'll be examining some other factors that could significantly impact the 2012 season. Today, I look at the pitch that turned around an embattled southpaw's career and could continue to entrench him as one of the game's best relievers. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After averaging just 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings over the first five seasons of his MLBDownload attachment: perkins.jpg career, Glen Perkins made the switch to full-time setup duties last year and the difference was night and day. In 61 2/3 innings at the back end of the Twins' bullpen, Perkins struck out 65 batters, good for a 9.5 K/9 rate that was superior to any seasonal mark he'd put up since splitting the 2006 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A as a 23-year-old. Improved health and the freedom to let loose in shorter relief stints aided an increase in velocity across the board for Perkins, but while his fastball gained a few ticks, his most impressive pitch was a devastating slider, which showed remarkably more bite than we've ever seen from it in the past. According to the PitchFX data available at Brooks Baseball, Perkins threw his slider a total of 440 times between 2008 and 2010, inducing only 47 swings-and-misses (10.7 percent). Last year, his much improved version garnered 60 whiffs on 276 deliveries, spiking his rate to 21.7 percent. That included a 27.6 percent swinging miss rate on two-strike counts, where the spinner was a dominant and very frequently used weapon. Perkins' supremely effective slider enabled him to completely neutralize right-handed hitters, making him one of the few left-handed relievers in the league worthy of trust against batters from either side of the plate in late-inning situations. If his mastery with that offering continues, we could see him closing games before long. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Phil-Hughes.jpg Once upon a time, Phil Hughes was among the most highly touted pitching prospects in the game. A former first-round pick, he emerged as a dominant force in the minors, climbing to the No. 4 spot on Baseball America's list of top prospects before debuting in the majors at age 20 in 2007. Sadly, the right-hander has never lived up to his immense promise. With a career 4.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, he has essentially been the definition of "average" over the course of his seven years with the Yankees. Most disturbingly, he has deteriorated as he's aged toward his physical prime.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hughes had some fairly impressive campaigns earlier in his career, including an 18-win 2010 season, but over the past three years he has posted a 4.85 ERA (86 ERA+), and fielding-independent metrics don't suggest that his results are greatly out of line with his performance. Why Does He Fit? Hughes offers two primary attractions: his age and the potential that he'll improve once removed from the AL East and hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. By virtue of his early entry into the majors, Hughes hits free agency for the first time at the uncommonly young age of 27. That means that -- unlike with most veterans on the open market -- he could be signed to a long-term deal that won't necessarily take him into his mid-30s. Unfortunately, as discussed above, while ages 27-32 are generally thought to be a player's physical prime, Hughes hasn't shown the improvement you'd like to see while edging toward this window. Still, considering that he's less than a year older than Kyle Gibson, he clearly fits into the Twins' long-term timeline better than a guy over 30. Undoubtedly, Target Field would be a better environment for him than the ballpark in the Bronx. Hughes is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and one of his most glaring issues has been proneness to the long ball. Over the past three seasons, he has coughed up 68 homers in 411 innings -- an average of 1.49 HR/9 that ranks as the fifth-highest in the majors during that span. It stands to reason that many of those deep flies would die in the spacious gaps of Target Field, and then his consistently solid K/BB ratios become a whole lot more intriguing. The notion that a change of scenery would benefit Hughes is backed up by his home/road splits; this year, he went 1-10 with a 5.88 ERA and 17 homers allowed in 16 starts at Yankee Stadium, compared to 3-4 with a 3.88 ERA and seven home runs allowed in 13 road starts. Why Doesn't He Fit? The Twins are seeking a starter who is a proven producer -- a guy who has been durable and has eaten up innings. Hughes doesn't really fit that bill. He has never thrown 200 innings in a season and has averaged just 147 since becoming a full-time starter. He completed six innings in 13 of his 29 starts this season. Only as a reliever has he excelled over an extended period. Hughes was a high-end talent while coming up through the minors and he's flashed that ability at times in the majors, but in the current climate he'll likely require a significant investment, which would mean taking a major leap of faith. That would be pretty uncharacteristic for Terry Ryan and these Twins. What Will He Cost? In the Offseason Handbook, we estimated Hughes' contract at three years, $30 million. That's seemingly a large amount to guarantee a guy who hasn't really produced in recent years, but the righty's youth -- in combination with his pedigree and potential -- could create a bidding war of sorts in a pitching-starved market where money is more flush than ever. On the bright side, because of the hurler's poor performance this year -- especially down the stretch (he posted a 7.22 ERA in August and September) -- it sounds unlikely that the Yankees will extend a qualifying offer, meaning that signing him won't cost a draft pick. Click here to view the article

We are reminded in the forums here daily that Twins fans have their (sometimes contentious) differences of opinion, but one thing everyone seems to agree on is that this season has been vastly more enjoyable than the previous two. In part, that's because the Twins are a far more respectable team. They are only four games below .500 and, outside of the notorious 10-game losing streak, they've generally played rather well. After so much sinking during the last two seasons, it feels nice to tread water. But staying afloat isn't by itself cause for excitement. What really seems to be keeping fans engaged is that, rather than hearing about the promising future, we're finally seeing it. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] First, there was Aaron Hicks. The former first-round pick was a spring star and has shown some nice flashes over the first half of his rookie season. Then came the unexpectedly early arrival of Oswaldo Arcia. The club has tried – so, so hard – to do the responsible thing and exercise patience with the exuberant 22-year-old, who last year around this time was playing in Single-A. But they can't help themselves. Any time a roster spot has become available in the outfield, the Twins have taken advantage of the opportunity to get Arcia on the team. And Ron Gardenhire has shown no hesitation plugging the youngster's game-changing bat into the middle of the lineup on a regular basis. The results speak for themselves. (Over the weekend in Cleveland, Arcia doubled, homered and drove in four runs.) Download attachment: arcia.jpg Now, another key piece of the future arrives with the overdue promotion of Kyle Gibson. While the current rotation consists almost entirely of guys who are long- shots to be ongoing fixtures, Gibson is fully expected such a mainstay. Terry Ryan implied recently that when he called the top pitching prospect up from Rochester, it'd be for good. So, barring a meltdown in his first couple starts, Gibson likely won't be the one in danger of losing his job when Mike Pelfrey returns from the disabled list. Right now it looks like P.J. Walters and Scott Diamond will be the ones feeling the heat. That is, if the Twins feel inclined to make room for a veteran with the league's worst qualifying ERA who is signed to a one-year deal. Pelfrey has been better of late, but still not good. Whether we're talking present or future, it's tough to make a case that he's a superior option to any of Walters, Diamond or Gibson. Click here to view the article

Another day, another (meaningless) spring loss. After falling to Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees 5-4 on Saturday, the Twins are now 0-5 since I arrived in Ft. Myers on Monday, but fortunately the games don't start counting for another week. Dig into the bullet points below for notes on the Asian import, Kevin Correia's second-to-last spring start, an emerging option for the second spot in the lineup, and more. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * The stadium and press box were both packed on Saturday afternoon with Tanaka and the Yankees visiting Hammond. The Japanese phenom tossed 5 2/3 innings for New York, allowing three runs on five hits while fanning six and walking one. "Fun to watch," Gardenhire said of Tanaka. "The ball had a lot of movement." Gardy complimented Tanaka's famed splitter and commented that his changeup (or "whatever that thing is") was diving down hard. "Looks like he's going to be a good one." * We had a chance to see the review system in action when New York manager Joe Girardi challenged a call that had Aaron Hicks sliding safely into second by maneuvering around a tag. After another look, the call was reversed. Girardi spent about a minute in discussions with the second base umpire before requesting a replay, but once the review process went into effect it was very fast. Forty-four seconds was all it took to get the call right. * Kevin Correia had a decent outing, as he became the first Twins pitcher to complete six innings in a Grapefruit League start. He held a Yankees lineup that included no starters outside of Brett Gardner scoreless outside of a rocky fourth in which four runs crossed. Of note: Correia has faced 50 batters this spring and struck out two. Download attachment: gardysuzuki321.jpg * Kurt Suzuki batted in the two-hole Saturday, marking the second straight time Gardenhire has placed the catcher there with his 'A' lineup. Nothing is set in stone, but prepare yourself to see a guy with a .282 on-base percentage over the last two years near the top of the order when the season starts. "I've got no problem with it," the manager said of batting Suzuki second. "I'm not going to sit here and tell you my lineup right now but I'm taking looks at all kinds of things… I don't think it's a bad fit." On the plus side, Suzuki doesn't strike out much -- only 11 percent of the time last year, which might be a reason Gardenhire is trying him there -- but if he hits anything like he has over the past few seasons he's a brutal choice for one of the most important spots in the lineup. * Pedro Florimon had a tough game. He failed to secure a couple ground balls that hit his glove (though neither was ruled an error) and struck out in all three of his trips to the plate, dropping his average to .091. "He wasn't getting his front foot down which is a bad sign for him," said Gardenhire. "It looked like he was really late on all the pitches." Nevertheless, one thing I've come to realize down here is that Florimon has a tight grip on the shortstop job. There's no competition for the position despite his late start to the spring, and right now Gardenhire is simply focused on getting him as much playing time as possible before the season gets underway. "We're working on trying to get him going here." * Today was my last at the ballpark, as I'll be flying back to Minnesota tomorrow. I've had a blast down here. It's been fun to put the journalist hat back on and brush up on some skills I haven't used much since college. Everyone here has been first-rate. Huge thanks to Twins staffers and fellow media folks who have all been very friendly and helpful. I'll be putting together a final roster projection either tonight or tomorrow morning, and then on Monday Parker (who was dubbed by Rob Antony as our "closer") will be arriving to bring us down the home stretch. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: alexburnett.jpg La Velle E. Neal III reports that right-handed reliever Alex Burnett, who has made 174 appearances out of the Minnesota Twins bullpen over the past three seasons, is officially no longer with the organization. After being placed on outright waivers, presumably to make room on the 40-man roster for outfielder Wilkin Ramirez, Burnett was claimed by the Blue Jays on Friday. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It's not difficult to see why a team like Toronto might want to chance it on Burnett. He brandishes a hard fastball and a slider with some real snap. Back when he was first breaking into the Twins bullpen at age 22 I thought he might develop into a pretty nice option for the late innings. But he didn't develop. Neal wrote in his report that "Twins officials were unhappy with [burnett's] spring, saying he had taken a step back." In general, it seems that the 25-year-old has gone nowhere but backwards, with K-rates dropping from 18 percent in 2010 to 15 percent in 2011 to 12 percent last year. This spring he was a complete mess, coughing up 15 hits and seven walks in 8 1/3 innings while striking out only one of the 46 batters he faced. That was apparently the last straw for the Twins. This move is a little surprising considering what a constant Burnett has been in the big-league bullpen over the past few seasons, but I guess we can mark it down – along with Drew Butera's recent demotion – as evidence that the "no more scholarships" policy is being enforced. Meanwhile, we'll have to hope that Burnett doesn't join the likes of Craig Breslow and Grant Balfour as relievers the Twins gave up on too hastily. Click here to view the article

Likely Starter: Josh Willingham 2011 Stats: .246/.332/.477, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 69 R, 4/5 SB Download attachment: willinghammer.jpg Potential Backups: Trevor Plouffe, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni When he hasn't been needed elsewhere, Michael Cuddyer has spent most of the past six years roaming right field for the Twins. No player has spent more time in front of the big blue baggy and limestone overhang. Cuddyer was a fan favorite, a media darling and a community staple. He was also a productive player, putting up an .806 OPS while averaging 18 homers and 79 RBI during that six-year span. The notorious clubhouse magician pulled off a final disappearing act this winter, ending his 15-year tenure in the Twins organization to sign a lucrative contract with the Rockies. The man replacing Cuddy has his work cut out for him. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Josh Willingham ought to be up to the task. In fact, there's a good chance that he'll outperform Cuddyer. During the aforementioned six-year span, Willingham accumulated a superior .838 OPS while averaging 22 homers and 72 RBI. Last year he hit 29 bombs – a mark Cuddyer has topped only once – while playing his home games in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park. Willingham has been an extremely consistent middle-of-the-lineup slugger with more balanced splits than Cuddyer, who mashed lefties but often struggled against righties. The newly acquired outfielder also brings pure pull power, making him a better fit in Target Field than his predecessor. In his quest to provide the Twins with above-average production in right field, Willingham will face two key barriers: injuries and age. He's done a good job of avoiding major ailments, playing in more than 100 games every year since becoming a regular, but he's also missed an average of 34 per season. Unless Justin Morneau can bounce back in a big way, the Twins don't have another player who can pack the kind of pop that Willingham does, so they'll need him in the lineup. Willingham is also 33 years old, putting him past what is typically considered to be a player's physical prime. There are plenty of guys who remain productive well into their mid-30s and he looked plenty sharp last year, but this is an age where many begin to see their bat speed and athleticism decline. I suspect that age, injuries and an even tougher ballpark will take a toll on Willingham to some degree, but his track record is outstanding and he's a great fit in this lineup. It will be fun to see how many he can yank into the Home Run Porch at Target Field. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Willingham: .250/.340/.450, 20 HR, 75 RBI Click here to view the article

The last two weeks have been rather slow for the Twins, as well as all of baseball and the corporate world in general. Holidays falling on successive Wednesdays will do that. With that season now officially over, things should start kicking back into gear. And fortunately, even though we've seen little meaningful roster action recently, there are still plenty of intrepid reporters working diligently to keep our rumor appetites satiated. Let's get caught up on all Twins-related whispers: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: mattgarza.jpg * Via an MLB contact, Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 reports that the Twins are still "kicking the tires" on Matt Garza. He notes that the club is willing to spend significantly on the free agent starter but are concerned about the number of guaranteed years in a potential contract. My assumption was that any interest the Twins had in Garza evaporated when they signed Ricky Nolasco, so I'd be really surprised if they're doing anything more than passively monitoring his situation at this point. He'll likely cost more than Nolasco to sign (perhaps more than Nolasco and Phil Hughes combined) and -- as I've discussed in these columns previously -- there's logic in leaving one rotation spot open for competition. The one thing that keeps this rumor faintly realistic is the fact that Garza is not tied to any draft pick compensation. If he would be willing to go as low as three years and the Twins are looking for a complete rotation overhaul, maybe something could work out. But it's really unlikely, as he remains one of the top names on the market. Steam Rating: 1/5 * Wolfson also mentioned that, as of the end of December, the Twins still had not offered a contract to Johan Santana, adding that they "remain interested." Wolfson suggested that Santana does have offers on the table (all of the minor-league variety, presumably) and there was some buzz last week that the lefty was getting close to making a decision. Still nothing yet, though. I would guess that the Twins won't make a play unless he remains unsigned into February, when they'll have a better idea of his condition for the start of the season. Steam Rating: 3/5 * John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote on Friday that the Reds have no money to spend and are thus very unlikely to re-sign Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo has been cited frequently as a target for the Twins, although the likelihood of such a match decreased substantially after the club brought back Mike Pelfrey. There hasn't been much buzz connecting the parties recently, and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com wrote a couple weeks ago that Arroyo "denies that he was ever close to an agreement" with Minnesota, contradicting a Ken Rosenthal report from earlier in the month that talks between the two sides were gaining momentum. I don't doubt that the Twins are still keeping an eye on Arroyo, but the same caveat applies as with Garza; it just doesn't make a ton of sense to spend big on filling that final rotation spot when you've got a handful of reasonable candidates to compete and prospects in waiting. Arroyo's price would have to drop to a pretty low level for this scenario to be plausible. Considering how slowly his market has developed, I suppose it's possible. Steam Rating: 2/5 * Last week Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors listed the Twins among teams that could use Stephen Drew the most. Indeed, few teams across baseball have as great a need for an adequate short-term or long-term solution at shortstop, but Minnesota has been openly wary about surrendering a draft pick to sign any free agent and Drew would require one. As Dierkes notes in his column, "they seem set with [Pedro] Florimon." And for better or worse, that's probably true. Steam Rating: 1/5 Click here to view the article

Technically, the actual halfway point in Minnesota's season came and went back in the first week of July, when the Twins played their 81st game at home against the Yankees. Yet, with the All-Star Game and its requisite four-day break falling in mid-July, it's tidier to simply use the Midsummer Classic as a milestone bisecting the MLB season. So, now that we've passed both the official and unofficial halfway points in what is clearly going to be a losing campaign, where do we go from here?[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The playoffs might be out of the picture, but that doesn't mean there aren't positive things to be accomplished. Here in the final 70 games, winning takes a back seat to the following five priorities: 1) Limit Joe Mauer's innings behind the plate. Two years ago, Mauer's future as a catcher was very much in doubt as he battled mysterious leg problems and exhibited diminished skill defensively. He has authoritatively erased any such concerns since then, setting a career high in plate appearances last year and ramping up his workload behind the dish this year while once again remaining remarkably healthy. Mauer is one of the best hitters in the league, and his production is vastly more valuable when he's catching. To give you some idea of how much his offense (.320/.402/.473, 30 doubles, eight homers) stands out at the position, consider that Kansas City's Salvador Perez, with a .711 OPS and four homers in the first half, was one of the American League's two All Star reserves at catcher. At some point Mauer will need to transition away from catching duties, but it's in the Twins' best interest to delay that eventuality as long as possible. Therefore, I would recommend drastically reducing his reps behind the plate in the second half. Catching is very hard on the body, and while Mauer's ability to avoid the disabled list while crouching for 500-plus innings this year has been admirable, there's no reason to expose him to much additional wear and tear in the second half of a lost season. The best approach: Play Mauer at catcher often enough to keep sharp, and no more. Give him a heavy uptick in playing time at first base and DH, while letting an alternative option (even Drew Butera) handle the punishment of catching. Hopefully, this will improve Mauer's chances of serving as a regular catcher in future years where it might matter more. 2) Load up on future assets. The Twins are in sell mode, and Terry Ryan has made no secret of it. The chief objective for the next couple weeks, and beyond, will be adding as much minor-league talent to the system as possible in exchange for expendable parts. Justin Morneau, Jamey Carroll and other candidates are likely to fetch modest returns, but anything that Ryan is able to acquire would be a bonus when giving up expiring contracts. Of course, the only way the Twins are going to be able to add any impact prospects is by trading Glen Perkins, who figures to be one of the hottest names on the trade market. While the general manager is understandably reluctant to part with his elite closer, it's known that he is open to the idea should an offer sufficiently wow him. As should be the case. 3) Straighten out struggling youngsters. Aaron Hicks is hitting .197. Kyle Gibson has a 6.45 ERA. Oswaldo Arcia was recently demoted to the minors amidst a brutal slump. No, things haven't gone swimmingly for the group of promising rookies that have been ushered into the major-league fold this year, but that's not particularly surprising nor worrisome. The key in these final months will be doing whatever is necessary to set these individuals up for future success, because the Twins need them to be crucial components in a turnaround going forward. If that means more time in the minors (as in the case of Arcia), so be it. If it means working through it in the big leagues (as in the case of Hicks), all the better. We'll have to trust that the Twins know what's best for the development of these young talents. Hopefully each can finish the year in a good place. 4) Evaluate borderline talents. While the Arcia demotion is justifiable, I have a harder time understanding the decision to send Chris Parmelee to the minors. He has nothing left to prove in the International League, which he completely dominated last year, and the Twins are reaching a point where they need to make a decision on the 25-year-old. They don't want to enter next season in the same position they entered this one -- with Parmelee being an unknown quantity who has crushed Triple-A pitching but struggled in limited time against major-leaguers -- yet that is exactly the situation they're headed toward. Download attachment: plouffeandparm.jpg Fortunately, outcomes have been better for fellow uncertainties Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier. Each has shown signs of becoming a solid long-term fixture, albeit with considerably more stability than Parmelee has enjoyed. I'd like to see plenty of all three, as well as Pedro Florimon, in the second half, so as to help inform offseason decisions regarding the positions they play. 5) Don't be afraid to lose. I'm certainly not advocating that the Twins try to lose. That's not how professional sports teams operate, nor should they. But all decisions should be aimed at the betterment of individual young players, not giving the team a better chance to win. At the end of the day, the only real difference between losing 85 games and 95 games is draft position. The Twins have had picks in the top four in each of the past two seasons, and with those picks they have added Byron Buxton -- now viewed as the consensus top prospect in baseball -- and Kohl Stewart -- ranked this week by Keith Law as the game's No. 30 prospect despite being drafted out of high school about a month ago. Circling back to the Parmelee example, if the Twins think he was struggling because he was overwhelmed and needed to get things figured out in a lower-pressure environment, fair enough. But if they felt his struggles were affecting the team's ability to win... at this point, who cares? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: plouffespring14.jpg "You want to work on your weaknesses, but you can't forget to work on your strengths." Wise words from Trevor Plouffe, and ones that can be forgotten amidst all the spring talk of ironing out wrinkles and fixing flaws. Plouffe knows the weaknesses that he needs to work on, but he's not forgetting about the strengths that have made him the Twins' principal third baseman for two years running. And the greatest of those strengths is… well, strength. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He's a well-built specimen at 6'2" with muscular arms that become much more noticeable when he's standing by the batting practice shell in a spandex shirt. His cannon arm kept him at shortstop throughout the minors and is the main reason the Twins still believe in him at third base despite frequent frustrations with his reactions and footwork. His powerful bat famously helped him produce 18 homers over a 39-game stretch in the summer of 2012. That's a strength that the Twins would really like to see shine through this year, because there are serious questions about where the right-handed power in this lineup is going to come from. Josh Willingham is trying to bounce back from a tough knee injury at age 35, and I've heard multiple people down here comment that he's really looking his age. Aaron Hicks and Josmil Pinto have the potential to provide punch from the right side, but both are mostly unproven. It's Plouffe that looks to be the most reliable source of righty power. But how to recapture the magic that led to that crazy homer binge two years ago? "I just think that sometimes you go through streaks like that," he says. "Obviously everyone would like to prolong those and get in those as much as possible." "But the big thing for me is just pitch recognition, getting the pitch in my zone. That's something that comes with a good base and a good foundation so that's what we're working on here, getting myself in a good position to see the ball and be able to turn on the ball and also take it the other way." Of course, it's going to help if he can improve his overall game, so that's also been a focus for the 27-year-old. He's excited to have Paul Molitor added to the coaching staff and says he's making the most of that opportunity. "Coming in this spring I knew I needed to get in here and work with Molitor, because he's a guy that you can pick his brain and learn a lot of different things." Plouffe has been attacking some particular areas of his fielding game and feels good about where he's at. "Specifically I guess just angles at third base, pre-pitch setup that gets you in a good position to move. I think I've made some big strides there." The Twins are hoping so, because their best fallback plan at the hot corner is no longer in the mix. Miguel Sano is gone all year, and his presence in the stands on a minor-league field the other day with a giant cast on his right arm served as a sobering reminder of that. Does the delayed arrival of the elite power-hitting prospect, whose immense strength overshadows even Plouffe's, serve to relieve some pressure for the incumbent? He says no. "I don't think there was ever really any pressure," Plouffe opines. "I'm going to prepare the same way. I'm not wanting him to be injured, I'm wanting him to do well and come help our team out." That's not going to happen this year anymore, so it falls on Plouffe to hold down the position, and to infuse this shaky lineup with some badly needed pop. So far this spring, he's hitting just .229/.325/.257, but he's also an example of how the statistics down here can be deceiving. I've seen him hit into several unlucky outs in the games I've watched, including Thursday night when two well struck liners to straightaway center ended up in the fielder's mitt. On the bright side, he has drawn five walks in 40 plate appearances, suggesting some improvement in another area of weakness. Last year Plouffe walked only 34 times in 522 trips for a 6.5 percent rate that was nearly identical to, for example, notorious hacker Carlos Gomez. Improved patience will certainly help Plouffe round out his offensive game and get him back to seeing the pitches that he can drive over the wall, allowing his greatest strength to carry him once again. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: marquis2.jpg No surprise here, but the Twins have reportedly designated Jason Marquis for assignment after the veteran was tagged by the Brewers for eight runs while recording only five outs on Sunday. Marquis has never been a particularly good pitcher and I certainly wasn't high on his signing at the time, but I wouldn't have guessed he'd be the worst starter in baseball. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]From the moment he showed up to spring training, Marquis had nothing; he struggled to get the ball over the plate and when he did hitters went to town. As Parker pointed out on Twitter, the veteran ranked last in the majors in FIP, HR/9, swinging strike rate and first-pitch strike rate. Marquis' dismissal was more than warranted, but it opens yet another hole to plug in the rotation. There a number of replacement options, yet none are overly appealing. Anthony Swarzak has been working long relief and could be stretched out quickly, but he's best suited for where he's at. The same goes for Brian Duensing, who really seems to have found his calling as a lefty specialist. The Twins may consider recalling Liam Hendriks, who was demoted to Triple-A after posting a 9.00 ERA in four starts for Minnesota but has allowed only four runs on 10 hits in three turns since returning to Rochester. It's not uncommon for a young starter to get knocked around then head down to the minors to make some tweaks, returning later in the season with greater confidence (Kevin Slowey in 2007 is a good example). Another option would be Cole DeVries, a 27-year-old right-hander who's been moderately successful in Triple-A. Although he's a nice story as a local guy from Eden Prairie, I don't think DeVries is a likely candidate to succeed in the majors as he's a soft-tosser with a 1.41 career WHIP in Triple-A. But perhaps the Twins feel differently. Personally, I'd be in favor of adding Anthony Slama – who has struck out 20 batters over 11 2/3 scoreless innings in his past 10 appearances at Triple-A, where his ERA sits at 0.45 – to the 40-man roster and getting him up in the bullpen, sliding either Swarzak or Duensing into the starting corps. It's not ideal, but "ideal" has pretty much flown out the window at this point. At least Swarzak and Duensing are reasonably good bets to hold their own as a No. 5 starter and the Twins could finally get an extended look at what they have in Slama. What move(s) would you make in the aftermath of the Marquis news? Click here to view the article

I've generally been pleased with the moves the Twins have made this offseason. In his return to the helm, Terry Ryan has wisely allowed some overpriced free agents to depart while signing solid producers like Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit to bargain deals with little downside. Two moves that have rubbed me the wrong way, however, are the Kevin Slowey trade and the Matt Capps signing. This isn't because I take issue with the decisions that were made – trading Slowey was certainly justifiable and Capps filled a need as a hard-throwing late-inning righty – but rather the timing. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Ryan has been aggressive in addressing needs and taking care of business this offseason. The Slowey swap and the Capps contract, like the majority of the Twins' moves this winter, were both pulled off before Christmas. However, in neither case was there a need to rush, and events that have occurred recently have made the Twins' haste in those decisions appear rather misguided. I addressed my quibbles with the Slowey trade earlier this week, when I pointed out that new needs tend to arise for teams as the season approaches and that a better market to trade the embattled starter would have likely developed had the Twins simply shown patience. With Capps, the Twins clearly overpaid. He's a solid reliever and his $4.75 million deal for next year might be considered reasonable in a different offseason, but not this year. Not with him coming off an ineffecitve campaign and with a sizable crop of similar right-handed relievers on the market competing for jobs. Not with Ryan Madson forced to settle for a one-year deal; with Brad Lidge signing for only $1 million; with Dan Wheeler taking a minor-league contract. There's no way any other team was going to give Capps close to $5 million. Not even close. I argued back when the Twins re-signed Capps that the public backlash against the move was excessive – because although I certainly recognized it as an overpay at the time, many folks failed to recognize that the righty does have value and will be a boost to the bullpen. I also embraced the "no such thing as a bad one-year contract" mantra, reasoning that overpaying Capps by a couple million wouldn't hurt the club long-term and wouldn't prevent them from making other cost-effective moves to round out their bullpen. That's not how a high-revenue team playing in a new stadium should operate. And yet, the Twins have now watched numerous inexpensive setup men come off the board at dirt-cheap prices – including Lidge and Wheeler, who both signed yesterday – while crying poor and suggesting that they're up against their payroll limit. The Joel Zumaya signing was nice, but he should be viewed more as a smart low-risk flier than a safe bet to lock down the seventh or eighth inning. I'm not a person who has berated the Twins for lowering payroll and it doesn't really bother me that they're spending $30 million less than the Tigers, who play in a similar market. But if they're not willing to add a million dollars to their current payroll fill an obvious need, the Capps deal looks a whole lot worse. Maybe this grumbling is all for naught. Maybe Ryan plans to nab one of the remaining relief arms to fill that right-handed setup role and provide the type of security that Zumaya and a crop of iffy internal candidates do not. But if they don't sign anyone else because they significantly overspent in their eagerness to bring Capps back, the Twins will again be setting up their closer to be the villain in a bullpen that could easily turn out thin and unreliable for a second straight year. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: goalposts.jpg Somewhere on the horizon, an end is in sight; a merciful conclusion to this horrendous chapter for the Minnesota Twins that has been characterized by losses piling up while mind-boggling injuries have plagued every level of the organization and interest has steadily declined in a team that should be enjoying its renaissance with a beautiful new outdoor ballpark. The Twins keep pointing to a day where their heralded prospects will arrive to usher in a renewed era of competitive baseball, and where the front office will have plenty of money to aggressively supplement and support this talented young core. The problem is that, as we keep inching forward, that day seems to continually move further down the line. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] And in the meantime, being a Twins fan just hasn't been very much fun. Now we've reached a point where, even with the season opener just days away, there's less buzz and enthusiasm for local baseball than I can ever remember. Tickets sales are stagnant. Team officials are publicly calling out hitters for uninspiring spring performances. And we're seeing threads pop up here like this one, wondering whether the worst is yet to come for a club that has taken some pretty brutal lumps over the last three years. The negativity that is gripping a sizable portion of the readership has led to some of those inane arguments about what it means to be a "real fan." Here's the truth: There are "real fans" who are trying to look on the bright side, acknowledging the drawbacks of the roster but electing to focus on the legitimate reasons to hope that this club will take steps forward this season and prove to be solidly on the right track. There are also "real fans" who are frustrated and demoralized after three years of unprecedented losing, and by a constant barrage of organizational setbacks, and by ongoing decision-making that can often be described as questionable at best. I place myself in the first group, mostly for the sake of my sanity, but can't find it in myself to denigrate the second. Despite the upgrades to the pitching staff, the Twins were passive in adding to the offense during the offseason, bringing in only a catcher who doesn't hit, a utility candidate who sat out last season and an aging designated hitter coming off the worst year of his career. Twelve months ago, my concern was that while the Twins had made personnel changes on the starting staff -- subbing out Scott Baker, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano for Vance Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey -- it wasn't clear that they'd implemented a significant talent upgrade (health issues aside). This year the same rings true for the offense. Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit are gone while Jason Kubel and Kurt Suzuki are in, with Joe Mauer shifting to first base full-time. It's tough to be convinced that the Twins have truly improved their lineup on paper, so they're counting on things breaking right and guys bouncing back from bad years. We all saw how that worked out with the rotation in 2013. The most frightening part of it all is the lack of fallback options. There's finally a little depth in the starting corps but few strong contingency options on the other side. If either Brian Dozier or Trevor Plouffe fails to deliver or suffers a major injury, there's no appealing option to step in as an impact starter. If Josmil Pinto doesn't hit, good luck getting any offense from behind the plate. If Josh Willingham's knee acts up or Oswaldo Arcia gets caught in another prolonged mental slump, you're potentially looking at Alex Presley as a regular in a corner spot. Ultimately this team's hopes reside with the top-tier prospects, and even in that department the news is surprisingly discouraging considering that the season hasn't even started. The Big Three already are dealing with various question marks -- Miguel Sano is gone for the year following Tommy John surgery, Alex Meyer is trying to bounce back after losing a third of his '13 season due to shoulder soreness and Byron Buxton is expected to open on the disabled list with a sprained wrist that keeps bothering him, despite repeated insistence from everyone involved that it's no big deal. All that in addition to the uncertain status of No. 5 prospect Eddie Rosario, who will miss the first 50 games of this season after a drug suspension and still hasn't shown up in Twins camp due to what are only being classified as "personal reasons." When beaten Twins fans can't even look to the stacked farm for relief from the bleak realities, you know things are bad. There's still plenty of talent there but with each setback the distance to the goalpost grows, and the team's underwhelming efforts to field a playoff-caliber team in the intermediate make cheering for this club all the more maddening. Maybe worse than maddening. Maybe just flat-out uninteresting. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: sunshine.jpg A thick coat of snow fell upon Target Field over the weekend, transforming the structure into a lifeless, cold and white blob. On Tuesday, temperatures in the Twin Cities rose toward 30 and the clouds dissipated. Bathed in sun, with green plastic seat-backs peeking through the melting snow, the ballpark started to look like… well, a ballpark. This coming weekend, temperatures in Minnesota will near the 40s while pitchers and catchers unpack their bags in Fort Myers. Spring is coming. Normally, this is a time of year marked by unbridled optimism from fans. It's a fresh season with a new assortment of players and an infinite range of possible outcomes. Yet, right now the mood in Twins Territory is distinctly vanilla. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In his latest blog post on StarTribune.com, Howard Sinker broke down (and by that I mean dismantled) the 2013 Twins, spinning a grim yet realistic picture of what folks can expect in the short term from this rebuilding club. Sinker laid out the question marks attached to the Twins across the board. His points are all valid. There's too much reliance on untested youth, too many positions that are complete unknowns, too many lotto tickets in the rotation. It's a fair critique that, at least to some extent, conveys the feelings of the fan base at large. Most people can see the long-term benefit to the Twins' offseason moves and are excited for what's to come when the loaded farm system (ranked this week by ESPN's Keith Law as the second-best in baseball) begins placing graduates. But the lip-service paid to the 2013 roster – even with flexibility to make legitimate additions – after two straight 95-loss seasons has been disheartening. There's a tendency to translate that disappointment into pessimism, but even without major external reinforcements, the Twins are in a position where they could easily surprise. When you think of perennial cellar-dwellers (a designation that the Twins would certainly earn with a third straight finish at the bottom), you don't usually picture a team whose lineup is built around two former MVPs, both under the age of 32. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are by all accounts as healthy as they've been in years, and that's a big deal. The Twins are taking gambles at a number of positions, but most carry significant upside. Trevor Plouffe, Chris Parmelee, Aaron Hicks, Brian Dozier, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson, Mike Pelfrey, Vance Worely and others might not all play up to their potentials, but if a handful of them do it's enough to move the needle. The pitching staff is bound to improve, and the offense can be above-average. The division, outside of Detroit, isn't overly intimidating. Last year, two American League teams improved their records by 20-plus games from the previous season despite playing in divisions with multiple powerhouses. The Twins have a clearer path to relevancy than did the Orioles or Athletics. Realistically, I'm not looking for that same type of storybook season here. But with more good breaks than bad, the Twins can be a .500 team or better. If it's hard to remember what "more good breaks than bad" feels like after the last two years, check the previous ten for a reminder. Also keep in mind that one auxiliary benefit of the organization's frugal approach this offseason will be tons of flexibility to make additions in-season, meaning that if the Twins are anywhere near contention midway through the summer, high-priced starters being shopped in salary dumps could be in play. Do I think a solid lineup along with an – at-best – average pitching staff should be viewed as favorites to knock off the Tigers and take the division? Absolutely not. But I'd be satisfied if the Twins hung around .500 for most of the campaign, playing meaningful games into the final months and providing promising future signs in a bridge year. There's nothing unrealistic about that scenario, in my mind. But maybe it's just the sunshine talking. Click here to view the article

The Twins invited a staggering 66 players to big-league camp this year, which seems more than a little excessive when you consider that only 25 will make the Opening Day roster and very few of those spots are legitimately up for grabs. So why the prodigious assembly at Lee County Sports Complex? I'd guess it has something to do with the coaching staff wanting a chance to familiarize themselves with as many guys as possible. Forty-five different players either took a swing or threw a pitch for the Twins last year, and while the team is hoping for better health this time around, nothing is guaranteed and they'll want to know what's going to be available when help is needed. Today, I'll take a look at some of the positions and players worth keeping an eye on over the next six weeks, eventually taking a stab at projecting the Opening Day roster. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Position Battles Left Field This job is Ben Revere's to lose, and it would probably take a Herculean effort from Trevor Plouffe to unseat the 23-year-old speedster as the regular starter. With that said, if he hits and looks sharp defensively, Plouffe could go a long way toward increasing his playing time in the early going. If he wants to take over the gig on a more full-time basis, he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts and improve against right-handed pitching. Backup Catcher The Twins insist that they view Ryan Doumit as Joe Mauer's top backup, but since Doumit is likely to spend significant time at DH and other positions, they'll need another player who can help relieve Mauer's workload behind the plate. Chances are good that it will be Drew Butera, given that defense is the top consideration for this role, but Chris Herrmann, Danny Lehmann and J.R. Towles could make things interesting with big springs. Utility Infielder If his shoulder heals, Luke Hughes is a virtual lock to make the team given that he's out of options and provides Gardenhire with a flexible right-handed bench bat. That probably leaves room for one more backup infielder. If the ability to play shortstop is a requirement -- and this could very well be the case since Hughes can't play there -- Tsuyoshi Nishioka is basically the only option. If the Twins are willing to get creative when Jamey Carroll needs a day off from short -- say, shifting Alexi Casilla over there and starting Hughes at second -- they'll have more choices. Perhaps Sean Burroughs could be carried as a platoon mate for Danny Valencia at third? Maybe Chris Parmelee comes north to spell Justin Morneau at first and fill in at DH? Final Bullpen Spots Matt Capps is going to be the closer. Glen Perkins and Joel Zumaya (if healthy) will be setting him up, while Brian Duensing will serve as a left-handed specialist. Beyond those four, nothing is assured in the bullpen, leaving two or three spots up for grabs among 25 pitchers in camp. I'd say it's extremely likely that Anthony Swarzak lands one of those spots, as he's out of options and performed well as a reliever last season. Jeff Gray and Matt Maloney, who were brought in during the offseason, are both out of options, which may give them an upper hand, though neither has much of a track record. Alex Burnett has struggled in each of the past two years, but gathered valuable big-league experience. The Twins liked Terry Doyle enough to select him in the Rule 5 draft, and if they don't bring him north they'll either need to send him back to the White Sox or work out a trade. Ultimately, the winners of these last bullpen spots may be dictated by circumstance more than performance, although I hope that isn't the case. Players to Watch Brian Dozier His chances of making the Opening Day roster are very slim, because both starting middle infield positions are spoken for and the Twins aren't going to carry him as a backup, but Dozier will be looking to make a strong impression and should get ample opportunity to show what he can do in March. His defense at shortstop will be under the microscope, since his ability to stick at that position will heavily impact his long-term value. J.R. Towles Last year Towles hit .300 with a .924 OPS in exhibition play for the Astros, but the success didn't carry over to the regular season, where he posted a .184/.256/.293 line in 54 games. Hitting when it counts has always been a challenge for the former top prospect, but he'll be worth keeping an eye on as a legitimate contender to replace Drew Butera in the second/third catcher role. Carlos Gutierrez Gutierrez has long held promise as a back-end reliever with a hard and heavy sinker, but command has been an issue. Over the winter he reportedly added a cutter to his repertoire. We'll see how that plays against live hitters. Jared Burton Burton was a pretty solid reliever for the Reds several years ago, before various injuries ravaged his arm and sunk his velocity. If he's healthy and throwing in the mid-90s again, he's got serious sleeper potential in the bullpen. Projected Opening Day Roster STARTERS C: Joe Mauer 1B: Justin Morneau 2B: Alexi Casilla 3B: Danny Valencia SS: Jamey Carroll LF: Ben Revere CF: Denard Span RF: Josh Willingham DH: Ryan Doumit BENCH C: Drew Butera IF: Luke Hughes IF: Tsuyoshi Nishioka OF: Trevor Plouffe ROTATION SP: Carl Pavano SP: Francisco Liriano SP: Scott Baker SP: Nick Blackburn SP: Jason Marquis BULLPEN RP: Matt Capps RP: Glen Perkins RP: Joel Zumaya RP: Brian Duensing RP: Anthony Swarzak RP: Alex Burnett RP: Terry Doyle Download attachment: ftmyers.jpg Click here to view the article

* Last week I wrote that Mike Pelfrey's struggles had a reached a point where he should be removed from the rotation until he demonstrated legitimate signs of progress. In his next start, which came Sunday afternoon in Cleveland, that progress was plenty evident. Go figure. Sure enough, Pelfrey delivered his best start of the season, by far, with six innings of one-run ball. His fastball flashed a couple ticks higher on the gun than we ever saw in April, and the added velocity (along with noticeably improved command) paid clear dividends. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For the first time this year, hitters seemed to struggle at times to catch up to his heater, increasing the effectiveness of his off-speed offerings. After striking out only seven hitters in his first five starts for an MLB-worst 6.5 percent K-rate, Pelfrey notched seven strikeouts Sunday, with a few coming at crucial moments. He induced a season-high 13 swings and misses. Whether it's the warmer weather, or the kinks being worked out after a month's work, or some combination, Pelfrey looked like a different guy on Sunday. And it was an opportune time, because on the same day, three hurlers with eyes on his job – Samuel Deduno, Alex Meyer and Cole De Vries – were all pitching for minor-league affiliates. * Trevor Plouffe displayed again in Sunday's game why he might be the team's most intriguing yet frustrating player. His two-run homer in the second gave the Twins an early lead that stuck. The dinger was Plouffe's fourth this season, placing him second on the team behind Josh Willingham. Download attachment: plouffe.jpg But in the field there was yet another lapse. In the fourth inning Asdrubal Cabrera attempted to steal third base and Joe Mauer's throw had him beat handily. Plouffe went down to apply the tag but, rather than holding his glove down, he made a quick swipe maneuver. Cabrera took advantage, stopping short with one hand and reaching around Plouffe with his other arm to touch the base safely. It's these kinds of little things that drive Ron Gardenhire crazy. Plouffe has shown again and again that he's capable of making all the plays at third, but his flashiness and inattention to detail will do him no favors with a manager who lives and breathes fundamentals. We've already seen Plouffe benched multiple times this season for offenses of a similar nature. Gardy's patience appears to be running thin. But at the same time the Twins can't afford to take the slugger's potent bat out of the lineup. The manager will just have to find it within himself to live with the miscues, because sliding Plouffe to the outfield no longer looks like a feasible option. * With Sunday's win, the Twins were able to fend off the brooms in Cleveland, marking the third straight series in which they fell behind 0-2 and rebounded to avoid a sweep. To date, the Twins have only come away winless in one series – an early-April set in Kansas City. By this point last year, they'd already been swept four times. Granted, winning one game per series is hardly ideal if it becomes an ongoing trend, but the Twins are showing some resilience, and in the process they're avoiding extended losing streaks. Click here to view the article

Back in February, I framed the Twins' rotation as a series of five coin flips. Looking back, it's funny how the worst case scenario seems to have struck in every single situation: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins seem to have flipped tails five times in a row. Ouch. Granted, there were a number of warning signs attached to each of these guys, which is why I dubbed them "dangerous gambles," but it would have taken an unruly pessimist to predict that things would go so horribly awry for the rotation. Fans are rightfully frustrated with the lackluster outings delivered by Twins starters on an almost nightly basis, and much of the heat is being directed toward the front office. I think this is a little unfair. Blackburn and Liriano were both on fire in spring training, so their quick descents into the regular season have been surprising. Baker's elbow couldn't have been handled much differently. Marquis has at least been serviceable when healthy for the majority of his career – this is likely the worst he's ever pitched. And Liam Hendriks looked like a solid enough fallback, given his domination of the minor leagues. Nothing has worked, for any of those guys. Front to back, the starting corps has been a catastrophe. Baker had a cascade of bad news regarding his elbow, resulting in the likely end to his Twins career. Liriano has been demoted to the bullpen, Hendriks to the minors. Blackburn has been placed on the disabled list for reasons that may have as much to do with performance as health. Marquis may be on the verge of getting cut. The only member of the rotation that has performed about as you'd expect is Pavano, and he's done so while throwing 85 MPH with a sore shoulder. Altogether, the Twins' starters have been getting battered around like a bunch of marginal minor-leaguers. Ironically, the only guys who have been able to break the spell of ineptitude are a couple of marginal minor-leaguers. Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters are not noteworthy prospects. They were pretty far back in line to receive major-league starts back when camp broke, but things have spiraled so quickly it took them only until mid-May to get a shot. And to their credit, both have taken advantage in a way that nobody in front of them on the depth chart has been able to. Diamond blanked opponents for seven innings in two consecutive outings after being called up last week. Walters tossed six innings of one-run ball on Saturday and took a tough loss, then beat the Tigers in their own park with 6 1/3 strong innings on Thursday. Together, the two have combined for four quality starts in four turns; the rest of the Twins' starters have produced seven quality starts in 34 tries. I've never seen anything quite like it. An entire stable of veteran starters with track records of major-league success pitching abysmally, and then two guys from the bottom of the depth chart coming up and setting the example. To what can we attribute this strange turn of events? Opponents haven't had the chance to fully scout Diamond and Walters – that might be part of it. But mostly I think it's just the law of averages. The Twins have had so many bad breaks, so many awful performances, so many inexplicable miscues, that eventually a few things had to start going their way. I believe what we've seen in the Twins' respectable 5-5 run over the past 10 games is a team's luck finally – FINALLY – starting to swing. Rather than getting dud outings from guys with high expectations, they're getting great outings from guys with no expectations. Rather than folding in tough spots, the relievers are coming through (Glen Perkins in the eighth Thursday serving as a prime example). Rather than continuing to struggle in his return from injury, Justin Morneau is swatting the ball. Rather than being placed on the DL at the last second, Ryan Doumit is being pulled off it at the last second. And rather than losing night after night, the Twins are starting to win a few. Let's hope it keeps up. Download attachment: four_leave_clover_lucky.jpg Click here to view the article

On his excellent RandBall blog, the Star Tribune's Michael Rand wrote Tuesday that despite being out of contention, the Twins' approach at the deadline isn't as cut-and-dry as "trade anyone with a pulse." There is value, Rand argues, in working toward a better finish and changing a culture of losing.I very much agree with the general sentiment expressed by Rand. The Twins desperately need to show more down the stretch this season than they have over the last three years. Another lifeless August and September would be unacceptable. However, if that improvement is driven by players like Kurt Suzuki, Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia, who are not part of the long-term solution, what good does it do? At that point, all you're doing is costing yourself valuable draft slots, with no tangible positive takeaways to bring forward. Maybe Terry Ryan will move those veterans before Thursday's deadline and maybe he won't. But regardless, these are the players we should be focused on here in the final two months, and what we should be looking for: Oswaldo Arcia: His season has been one of the great disappointments of 2014, as he has taken a significant step backward following his promising rookie campaign. Any time he appears to be getting something going, he falls into another spell where he looks totally lost at the plate. An at-bat on Sunday that ended with him snapping a bat over his knee sums up his season pretty well, but a strong finish with a bunch of home runs would go a long way toward building optimism toward 2015. Kyle Gibson: He has given us a lot to like this year, most notably an elite ground ball rate (fifth-best in baseball) and control that has improved substantially over the course of the season. But it's hard to get overly excited when he's giving up five-plus runs every other start. If he can eliminate most of the clunkers while staying healthy and working toward 200 innings, we'll be able to feel a lot more comfortable in his ability to help anchor next year's rotation. Joe Mauer: We need positive signs. He was hitting .362 on a 12-game hitting streak before going down with an oblique injury, and now that he appears close to returning, he needs to pick up where he left off. It's tough to imagine the Twins returning to contention in the next couple years without Mauer being a major contributor. I'll be particularly interested to see if he can start evening out his K/BB ratio, which was still oddly unimpressive even while he was heating up. Ricky Nolasco: Will the first season of his big new contract be an unmitigated disaster, or can he salvage something here at the tail end? Nolasco pitched hurt for months before landing on the shelf with elbow soreness. If he can't come back and perform for a stretch before the season ends, he's going to be a big question mark during the offseason that will make it difficult for the team to plan out its 2015 starting corps. Byron Buxton: The top prospect may have positioned himself as the 2015 Opening Day center fielder if he'd remained healthy this season. Maybe he still can. He's finally got it going in Ft. Myers and should be moved up to New Britain very shortly. A good month there could possibly earn him a September call-up. With all their issues in center, the Twins have plenty of reason to want a look at him. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hicks.jpg For all the buzz he built up during spring training, it didn’t take long for Aaron Hicks to sour the widespread enthusiasm surrounding him. We’re barely over a week into the season and already we’re seeing calls for the rookie center fielder to be shipped to the minors, or at least the bottom of the lineup. In fairness, Hicks has done his part. Through eight games, he has been flat-out overmatched, [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] with two hits, two walks and 13 strikeouts in 32 plate appearances. He torched opposing pitchers during exhibition play, but ever since the games started mattering and hurlers stepped it up, Hicks has looked utterly confounded by big-league stuff. With his reputation for seeing lots of pitches and taking good at-bats in the minors (a trait that was certainly on display in spring training) the Twins had hoped that Hicks would set a strong example with his approach in the lead-off spot. Instead, he has frequently appeared to have no plan whatsoever at the plate, slumping back to the dugout dejectedly after being blown away by vicious heaters and benders the likes of which he’s never seen before. He’s clearly overwhelmed, which may seem like a good enough reason to get him to Triple-A so he can regain some confidence and straighten himself out. If things haven’t changed by the time we get into May, it will be a perfectly justifiable decision, carrying the added benefit of delaying his service clock and buying an extra year of team control. But we simply haven’t reached that point yet. We’re less than 10 games into the season and as bad as Hicks has been over these 32 plate appearances, we’re still talking about 32 plate appearances. If the Twins were going to give him the opportunity to jump from Double-A straight to the majors, they need to at least give him a chance to work through some initial struggles and adjust. At this juncture, the team’s outcomes take a backseat to the player’s development, and while I’m not saying that a trip to Rochester wouldn’t necessarily be the best thing for Hicks, there’s no way to know that yet. He needs time. The same goes for other youngsters who have stumbled out of the gates, such as Brian Dozier and Liam Hendriks. The way players get better is through reps and experience, not through being jerked around and demoted based on short stretches of poor performance. The last thing the Twins need to is to repeat their 2012 handling of Chris Parmelee, who shuttled back and forth between the minors and majors, dominating one level and looking flummoxed (in sporadic playing time) at the other. Looking back, did we really learn anything about Parmelee last year? The month of April is for evaluation. When May and June roll around, then the talk can begin about taking actions based on a more meaningful set of data. For now, the best approach is the one Ron Gardenhire took on Tuesday night with scuffling Hicks and Dozier: give them a day off to clear their heads, then get them back out there the next night (as I suspect they will be). Click here to view the article

Download attachment: opryland.jpg Last weekend, I traveled down to Nashville to see one of my best friends get married. The fantastic event took place at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center, which coincidentally is where general managers and other key executives from around baseball will congregate next week for the annual Winter Meetings. Rather than flying, we elected to drive down to Tennessee for the wedding. It was a slow, dull, 14-hour road trip that involved staring into endless cornfields and finding ways to pass the time. Actually, it was somewhat remindful of the Twins' offseason up until yesterday[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], when the club finally broke the ice by trading Denard Span to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer. While a good move, it's geared toward the long-term and does nothing to benefit the 2013 team. To that end, the Twins still haven't made any splashes in free agency, and even the faint rumors we've been privvy to – those involving names like Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Brett Myers – have hardly provided jolts of excitement for the fan base. As a result, there's been consternation amongst fans anxious to see some motion from the front office, but the truth is that things have been quiet all around the league. Typically we see at least a couple of the top dominoes fall in November, but here on the final day of the month, top-tier names like Zack Greinke, Josh Hamilton and Anibal Sanchez are still out there, along with the vast majority of their free agent counterparts. B.J. Upton is basically the only player we've seen sign a major deal. My theory is that this slow-developing market relates to the upcoming TV revenue boosts that will affect all 30 major-league teams. Agents who are looking ahead to the financial windfall on deck for next year – and the league-wide spending increases that will surely come along with it – are reluctant to settle for long-term contracts that adhere to established baselines. Certainly, this would help explain the inflated deals we've seen early on. We're in a transitional period right now, perhaps the early stages of a market shift, and it seems everyone is still trying to work through that dynamic. At some point, however, the action will pick up. There's a good chance it will be next week. We encourage everyone to stay tuned to Twins Daily, where we'll have news, analysis and discussion of any breaking news as it relates to the local nine. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: parmelee1.jpg Chris Parmelee offered Minnesota Twins fans a glimpse of his offensive ability on Monday in Milwaukee, when he launched a majestic, 420-foot home run to center field. Unfortunately, those glimpses have been entirely too rare for the 25-year-old. The solo shot was just his fourth homer – and seventh extra-base hit – of the season, leaving him with a .215/.293/.331 hitting line.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That’s miserable production for a plodding right fielder whose value is tied almost entirely to his bat, and when combined with his similarly ugly .229/.290/.380 mark with the Twins last season, it paints a grim picture regarding Parmelee’s ability to hit major-league pitching. The Twins keep giving their former first-round pick chances to dig his way out, but Parmelee’s time to prove that he’s got more to offer may be running short, at least here in Minnesota. Surely this is a situation where the Twins would prefer to exercise patience. They have plenty invested in Parmelee, whose career minor-league track record suggests that he should ultimately be a competent hitter in the majors (maybe more if his small-sample Triple-A numbers are to be believed). Even though he has tripped over himself in two extended MLB chances now, he remains relatively young and inexperienced. But the window to make an evaluation may be shrinking. Parmelee was added to the 40-man roster following the 2010 season, so the Twins have already used up two of his three options (2011 and 2012). They haven’t used one this year, since he made the big-league roster out of spring training, but it’s hard to imagine he will stick much longer if his offense doesn’t pick up. With an OPS+ of 70 – third-worst on the team ahead of only Brian Dozier and Aaron Hicks, who both at least provide meaningful defensive value – Parmelee has been beyond brutal. Even a rebuilding team in a lost season can’t justify trotting that production out regularly, and if his playing time continues to wane (he’s started only 10 of the team’s last 20 games) it makes little sense to keep him on the roster. If he’s sent down, Parmelee will suddenly be headed toward a tough spot next spring. The Twins have numerous candidates to fill their outfield and probably would have some interest in retaining Justin Morneau if the cost isn’t exorbitant, so barring a turnaround in performance, Parmelee could be squeezed out. That’s not an ideal outcome for him or the Twins, who would enjoy having a usable inexpensive piece that they can plug in for a few years. I'm not quit ready to give up on Parmelee but his plate approach has been mostly ugly and, as his results continue to deteriorate rather than improve, it seems like major-league pitchers are gradually figuring him out rather than the other way around. It's not time to cut bait yet, but he has already relegated himself to part-time duty and with Oswaldo Arcia lurking in the minors, his place on the roster is very much in danger. Should he find himself bumped to Triple-A, he'll have an uphill climb ahead of him in order to remain in this organization long-term. Click here to view the article