Nick Nelson

Back in February, I framed the Twins' rotation as a series of five coin flips. Looking back, it's funny how the worst case scenario seems to have struck in every single situation: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins seem to have flipped tails five times in a row. Ouch. Granted, there were a number of warning signs attached to each of these guys, which is why I dubbed them "dangerous gambles," but it would have taken an unruly pessimist to predict that things would go so horribly awry for the rotation. Fans are rightfully frustrated with the lackluster outings delivered by Twins starters on an almost nightly basis, and much of the heat is being directed toward the front office. I think this is a little unfair. Blackburn and Liriano were both on fire in spring training, so their quick descents into the regular season have been surprising. Baker's elbow couldn't have been handled much differently. Marquis has at least been serviceable when healthy for the majority of his career – this is likely the worst he's ever pitched. And Liam Hendriks looked like a solid enough fallback, given his domination of the minor leagues. Nothing has worked, for any of those guys. Front to back, the starting corps has been a catastrophe. Baker had a cascade of bad news regarding his elbow, resulting in the likely end to his Twins career. Liriano has been demoted to the bullpen, Hendriks to the minors. Blackburn has been placed on the disabled list for reasons that may have as much to do with performance as health. Marquis may be on the verge of getting cut. The only member of the rotation that has performed about as you'd expect is Pavano, and he's done so while throwing 85 MPH with a sore shoulder. Altogether, the Twins' starters have been getting battered around like a bunch of marginal minor-leaguers. Ironically, the only guys who have been able to break the spell of ineptitude are a couple of marginal minor-leaguers. Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters are not noteworthy prospects. They were pretty far back in line to receive major-league starts back when camp broke, but things have spiraled so quickly it took them only until mid-May to get a shot. And to their credit, both have taken advantage in a way that nobody in front of them on the depth chart has been able to. Diamond blanked opponents for seven innings in two consecutive outings after being called up last week. Walters tossed six innings of one-run ball on Saturday and took a tough loss, then beat the Tigers in their own park with 6 1/3 strong innings on Thursday. Together, the two have combined for four quality starts in four turns; the rest of the Twins' starters have produced seven quality starts in 34 tries. I've never seen anything quite like it. An entire stable of veteran starters with track records of major-league success pitching abysmally, and then two guys from the bottom of the depth chart coming up and setting the example. To what can we attribute this strange turn of events? Opponents haven't had the chance to fully scout Diamond and Walters – that might be part of it. But mostly I think it's just the law of averages. The Twins have had so many bad breaks, so many awful performances, so many inexplicable miscues, that eventually a few things had to start going their way. I believe what we've seen in the Twins' respectable 5-5 run over the past 10 games is a team's luck finally – FINALLY – starting to swing. Rather than getting dud outings from guys with high expectations, they're getting great outings from guys with no expectations. Rather than folding in tough spots, the relievers are coming through (Glen Perkins in the eighth Thursday serving as a prime example). Rather than continuing to struggle in his return from injury, Justin Morneau is swatting the ball. Rather than being placed on the DL at the last second, Ryan Doumit is being pulled off it at the last second. And rather than losing night after night, the Twins are starting to win a few. Let's hope it keeps up. Download attachment: four_leave_clover_lucky.jpg Click here to view the article

On his excellent RandBall blog, the Star Tribune's Michael Rand wrote Tuesday that despite being out of contention, the Twins' approach at the deadline isn't as cut-and-dry as "trade anyone with a pulse." There is value, Rand argues, in working toward a better finish and changing a culture of losing.I very much agree with the general sentiment expressed by Rand. The Twins desperately need to show more down the stretch this season than they have over the last three years. Another lifeless August and September would be unacceptable. However, if that improvement is driven by players like Kurt Suzuki, Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia, who are not part of the long-term solution, what good does it do? At that point, all you're doing is costing yourself valuable draft slots, with no tangible positive takeaways to bring forward. Maybe Terry Ryan will move those veterans before Thursday's deadline and maybe he won't. But regardless, these are the players we should be focused on here in the final two months, and what we should be looking for: Oswaldo Arcia: His season has been one of the great disappointments of 2014, as he has taken a significant step backward following his promising rookie campaign. Any time he appears to be getting something going, he falls into another spell where he looks totally lost at the plate. An at-bat on Sunday that ended with him snapping a bat over his knee sums up his season pretty well, but a strong finish with a bunch of home runs would go a long way toward building optimism toward 2015. Kyle Gibson: He has given us a lot to like this year, most notably an elite ground ball rate (fifth-best in baseball) and control that has improved substantially over the course of the season. But it's hard to get overly excited when he's giving up five-plus runs every other start. If he can eliminate most of the clunkers while staying healthy and working toward 200 innings, we'll be able to feel a lot more comfortable in his ability to help anchor next year's rotation. Joe Mauer: We need positive signs. He was hitting .362 on a 12-game hitting streak before going down with an oblique injury, and now that he appears close to returning, he needs to pick up where he left off. It's tough to imagine the Twins returning to contention in the next couple years without Mauer being a major contributor. I'll be particularly interested to see if he can start evening out his K/BB ratio, which was still oddly unimpressive even while he was heating up. Ricky Nolasco: Will the first season of his big new contract be an unmitigated disaster, or can he salvage something here at the tail end? Nolasco pitched hurt for months before landing on the shelf with elbow soreness. If he can't come back and perform for a stretch before the season ends, he's going to be a big question mark during the offseason that will make it difficult for the team to plan out its 2015 starting corps. Byron Buxton: The top prospect may have positioned himself as the 2015 Opening Day center fielder if he'd remained healthy this season. Maybe he still can. He's finally got it going in Ft. Myers and should be moved up to New Britain very shortly. A good month there could possibly earn him a September call-up. With all their issues in center, the Twins have plenty of reason to want a look at him. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hicks.jpg For all the buzz he built up during spring training, it didn’t take long for Aaron Hicks to sour the widespread enthusiasm surrounding him. We’re barely over a week into the season and already we’re seeing calls for the rookie center fielder to be shipped to the minors, or at least the bottom of the lineup. In fairness, Hicks has done his part. Through eight games, he has been flat-out overmatched, [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] with two hits, two walks and 13 strikeouts in 32 plate appearances. He torched opposing pitchers during exhibition play, but ever since the games started mattering and hurlers stepped it up, Hicks has looked utterly confounded by big-league stuff. With his reputation for seeing lots of pitches and taking good at-bats in the minors (a trait that was certainly on display in spring training) the Twins had hoped that Hicks would set a strong example with his approach in the lead-off spot. Instead, he has frequently appeared to have no plan whatsoever at the plate, slumping back to the dugout dejectedly after being blown away by vicious heaters and benders the likes of which he’s never seen before. He’s clearly overwhelmed, which may seem like a good enough reason to get him to Triple-A so he can regain some confidence and straighten himself out. If things haven’t changed by the time we get into May, it will be a perfectly justifiable decision, carrying the added benefit of delaying his service clock and buying an extra year of team control. But we simply haven’t reached that point yet. We’re less than 10 games into the season and as bad as Hicks has been over these 32 plate appearances, we’re still talking about 32 plate appearances. If the Twins were going to give him the opportunity to jump from Double-A straight to the majors, they need to at least give him a chance to work through some initial struggles and adjust. At this juncture, the team’s outcomes take a backseat to the player’s development, and while I’m not saying that a trip to Rochester wouldn’t necessarily be the best thing for Hicks, there’s no way to know that yet. He needs time. The same goes for other youngsters who have stumbled out of the gates, such as Brian Dozier and Liam Hendriks. The way players get better is through reps and experience, not through being jerked around and demoted based on short stretches of poor performance. The last thing the Twins need to is to repeat their 2012 handling of Chris Parmelee, who shuttled back and forth between the minors and majors, dominating one level and looking flummoxed (in sporadic playing time) at the other. Looking back, did we really learn anything about Parmelee last year? The month of April is for evaluation. When May and June roll around, then the talk can begin about taking actions based on a more meaningful set of data. For now, the best approach is the one Ron Gardenhire took on Tuesday night with scuffling Hicks and Dozier: give them a day off to clear their heads, then get them back out there the next night (as I suspect they will be). Click here to view the article

Download attachment: opryland.jpg Last weekend, I traveled down to Nashville to see one of my best friends get married. The fantastic event took place at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center, which coincidentally is where general managers and other key executives from around baseball will congregate next week for the annual Winter Meetings. Rather than flying, we elected to drive down to Tennessee for the wedding. It was a slow, dull, 14-hour road trip that involved staring into endless cornfields and finding ways to pass the time. Actually, it was somewhat remindful of the Twins' offseason up until yesterday[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], when the club finally broke the ice by trading Denard Span to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer. While a good move, it's geared toward the long-term and does nothing to benefit the 2013 team. To that end, the Twins still haven't made any splashes in free agency, and even the faint rumors we've been privvy to – those involving names like Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Brett Myers – have hardly provided jolts of excitement for the fan base. As a result, there's been consternation amongst fans anxious to see some motion from the front office, but the truth is that things have been quiet all around the league. Typically we see at least a couple of the top dominoes fall in November, but here on the final day of the month, top-tier names like Zack Greinke, Josh Hamilton and Anibal Sanchez are still out there, along with the vast majority of their free agent counterparts. B.J. Upton is basically the only player we've seen sign a major deal. My theory is that this slow-developing market relates to the upcoming TV revenue boosts that will affect all 30 major-league teams. Agents who are looking ahead to the financial windfall on deck for next year – and the league-wide spending increases that will surely come along with it – are reluctant to settle for long-term contracts that adhere to established baselines. Certainly, this would help explain the inflated deals we've seen early on. We're in a transitional period right now, perhaps the early stages of a market shift, and it seems everyone is still trying to work through that dynamic. At some point, however, the action will pick up. There's a good chance it will be next week. We encourage everyone to stay tuned to Twins Daily, where we'll have news, analysis and discussion of any breaking news as it relates to the local nine. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: parmelee1.jpg Chris Parmelee offered Minnesota Twins fans a glimpse of his offensive ability on Monday in Milwaukee, when he launched a majestic, 420-foot home run to center field. Unfortunately, those glimpses have been entirely too rare for the 25-year-old. The solo shot was just his fourth homer – and seventh extra-base hit – of the season, leaving him with a .215/.293/.331 hitting line.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That’s miserable production for a plodding right fielder whose value is tied almost entirely to his bat, and when combined with his similarly ugly .229/.290/.380 mark with the Twins last season, it paints a grim picture regarding Parmelee’s ability to hit major-league pitching. The Twins keep giving their former first-round pick chances to dig his way out, but Parmelee’s time to prove that he’s got more to offer may be running short, at least here in Minnesota. Surely this is a situation where the Twins would prefer to exercise patience. They have plenty invested in Parmelee, whose career minor-league track record suggests that he should ultimately be a competent hitter in the majors (maybe more if his small-sample Triple-A numbers are to be believed). Even though he has tripped over himself in two extended MLB chances now, he remains relatively young and inexperienced. But the window to make an evaluation may be shrinking. Parmelee was added to the 40-man roster following the 2010 season, so the Twins have already used up two of his three options (2011 and 2012). They haven’t used one this year, since he made the big-league roster out of spring training, but it’s hard to imagine he will stick much longer if his offense doesn’t pick up. With an OPS+ of 70 – third-worst on the team ahead of only Brian Dozier and Aaron Hicks, who both at least provide meaningful defensive value – Parmelee has been beyond brutal. Even a rebuilding team in a lost season can’t justify trotting that production out regularly, and if his playing time continues to wane (he’s started only 10 of the team’s last 20 games) it makes little sense to keep him on the roster. If he’s sent down, Parmelee will suddenly be headed toward a tough spot next spring. The Twins have numerous candidates to fill their outfield and probably would have some interest in retaining Justin Morneau if the cost isn’t exorbitant, so barring a turnaround in performance, Parmelee could be squeezed out. That’s not an ideal outcome for him or the Twins, who would enjoy having a usable inexpensive piece that they can plug in for a few years. I'm not quit ready to give up on Parmelee but his plate approach has been mostly ugly and, as his results continue to deteriorate rather than improve, it seems like major-league pitchers are gradually figuring him out rather than the other way around. It's not time to cut bait yet, but he has already relegated himself to part-time duty and with Oswaldo Arcia lurking in the minors, his place on the roster is very much in danger. Should he find himself bumped to Triple-A, he'll have an uphill climb ahead of him in order to remain in this organization long-term. Click here to view the article

The last time the Twins owned the No. 2 pick in the MLB draft, they selected a college pitcher named Adam Johnson out of Cal State Fullerton. As most fans will recall, he cruised through the minors and made his major-league debut at the age of 21, but hit a wall and quickly fizzled out. That's a scary memory as the Twins eye a handful of collegiate hurlers with this year's second pick, but fortunately the history of the draft slot has been much brighter since the Johnson bust. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Below, you'll see a list of the players taken with the No. 2 overall pick in the 11 years since 2000. [TABLE] Year Team Player 2001 Cubs Mark Prior, RHP 2002 Rays B.J. Upton, SS/CF 2003 Brewers Rickie Weeks, 2B 2004 Tigers Justin Verlander, SP 2005 Royals Alex Gordon, 3B/OF 2006 Rockies Greg Reynolds, RHP 2007 Royals Mike Moustakas, 3B 2008 Pirates Pedro Alvarez, 3B 2009 Mariners Dustin Ackley, 2B 2010 Pirates Jameson Taillon, RHP 2011 Mariners Danny Hultzen, LHP [/TABLE] That's got to be viewed as an encouraging group. Every player taken from 2001 to 2008 reached the majors and all have had success with the exception of Reynolds, who would qualify as the one clear bust on the list. Alvarez has been a disappointment since a strong rookie campaign but can crush the ball and he's still only 25. The rest rank mostly as solid regulars (Upton, Weeks, Gordon), some with star potential (Moustakas, Ackley). Then there's a pitcher who was arguably the best in the game before injuries ravaged his career (Prior) and one who is arguably the best in the game now (Verlander). Taillon and Hultzen, drafted No. 2 in the past two years, haven't had time yet to reach the majors but both are very much on the right track. Taillon was ranked by Baseball America as the game's No. 15 prospect prior to the season and he's currently pitching very well as a 20-year-old in High-A. Hultzen was ranked the No. 21 prospect by BA and he's been dominant after being placed in Double-A to start his pro career. Johnson and Reynolds are the only No. 2 picks since Y2K who have failed to crack Baseball America's Top 25, and – to the publication's credit – they are also the only two who have been abject failures in the major leagues. Coincidentally enough, both were college pitchers from California. This year, as the Twins decide between the likes of Mark Appel and Kyle Zimmer (two college pitchers from California) along with Louisiana State's Kevin Gausman, you can bet they'll bear in mind the lessons of the past. This organization is badly in need of high-end pitching, and to whiff on an arm the No. 2 pick would be catastrophic. College pitchers are generally considered "safe" draft picks, but when it comes to the No. 2 selection, in recent history they have been anything but. There will be plenty of opportunities to stock up on pitching with five picks in the top 75, so it's important that with their top pick, the Twins make sure they take the best player available. There's a good chance that won't be a pitcher. Download attachment: number2.jpg Click here to view the article

Download attachment: phelps.jpg The Big Picture The Bronx Bombers have made the playoffs in seven of the past eight years but have reached the World Series only once, when they beat the Phillies in 2009. For most teams, one championship in eight years would be perfectly adequate, but not for the Yankees. This is a franchise that appeared in the Fall Classic six times in nine years prior to their latest "drought." [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now, with a 48-32 record that qualifies as second-best in baseball (behind the Rangers) and gives them a comfortable six-game lead in the AL East, you can bet they'll do whatever it takes to position themselves for another strong postseason run. Why They Will Trade With the Twins Championship aspirations? Check. Room to add payroll? Check. Pressure from fan base to make a move? Check. The Yankees have all the characteristics of an aggressive deadline buyer, which means they're exactly the type of club that the Twins should be focusing on should they choose to sell. Moreover, they've suffered some tough losses in the rotation; Michael Pineda was lost for the season in spring training, and more recently Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia went down with injuries that will keep them out for a while (Pettitte likely won't be back until September). In addition, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances – two top prospects that were being counted on to step in at some point this season – have been set back by injuries and ineffectiveness. These events leave the Yanks on shaky ground in the rotation, so it's easy to envision them taking an interest in Francisco Liriano, who they've been linked to in past rumors. Why They Won't Trade With the Twins There's a very narrow fit here. The Twins don't really have any impact starters to trade outside of Liriano, and New York is in no great need of help in the lineup or bullpen. So the question is, how much are they willing to give up for two months of the mercurial Liriano? Even if they're desperate for starting pitching, it's tough to see them moving a high-end prospect for a rental, especially considering that superior impending free agents such as Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels could be made available. Conclusion There's definitely a potential match here, and if Brian Cashman is unwilling to meet the asking prices of Milwaukee or Philadelphia, one could easily imagine him calling up Terry Ryan to inquire about Liriano. At that point, it becomes a matter of settling on a prospect (or prospects) that the Twins like and that the Yankees are willing to move in return for a wild card. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Dellin Betances - RHP Top pitching prospect Manny Banuelos is probably unavailable, but it's possible that Betances – another of the vaunted "Killer B's" – could be plucked. The sky-scraping right-hander was ranked by Baseball America as New York's third-best prospect during the offseason, but he's had a brutal campaign. He was recently demoted from Triple-A to Double-A after posting a 6.39 ERA and 71/69 K/BB ratio in 74 2/3 innings for Scranton. If the Twins feel they could straighten the 24-year-old out, this might be the right time to make a bid for him. But that's a risk, and it's unclear Cashman would be willing to sell low. Gary Sanchez - C Catching prospects are intriguing, because the Twins will be gradually transitioning Joe Mauer away from the position in the coming years and they certainly don't have any amazing backstops on the farm. Sanchez would seemingly be a good fit – he's 19 and hitting very well in Single-A, which means that if all goes well he'd be reaching the majors around the time Mauer is looking at a full-time switch to first base or DH. David Phelps - RHP Despite posting excellent numbers throughout the minors, the former 14th-round pick has never been viewed as a spectacular prospect. He's pitched as a starter and a reliever for the Yankees this year, posting very respectable numbers (37 IP, 3.16 ERA, 34/14 K/BB). A 25-year-old rookie who's missing bats in the majors and has several years of inexpensive team control ahead of him? Sounds like exactly the guy the Twins are looking for. In fact, he should be the first player Ryan asks about. Click here to view the article

Likely Starter: Denard Span 2011 Stats: .264/.328/.359, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 37 R, 6/7 SB Download attachment: dspan.jpg Potential Backups: Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni A good case can be made that during his first two seasons in the majors, Denard Span was not only one of the most underrated players on the Twins, but in all of baseball. Between 2008 and 2009, Span hit .305/.390/.422 with 41 steals and 63 extra-base hits in 238 games. A young, cost-controlled leadoff man with a .390 OBP, a bit of pop and the athleticism to competently play center field? That's not a solid contributor, that's a stud. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Span's drop-off in 2010 was staggering. With Carlos Gomez gone, he assumed full-time duties in center and saw his OPS drop by 130 points, effectively dropping his designation from elite to ordinary. It appeared that Span had reemerged as a true asset at the top of the order last year, as he sat with a .300/.367/.392 hitting line on June 6, but that day he suffered a concussion in a home plate collision and he was never the same afterward. He went on to hit .132 over two stints in August and September, finishing with an OPS nearly identical to that mediocre 2010 campaign. Twins fans know all too well how long the after-effects of a concussion can linger, with Justin Morneau still not right 20 months after his incident in Toronto. Span carries his own concerns, especially in light of the migraine headaches he'd dealt with prior to being concussed, and he admitted recently that he still experiences the occasional bad day. Fortunately, the center fielder's performance in spring training thus far has done nothing but inspire confidence that he can shake off the injury concerns and return at least to the form he showed in the early months of last season. Through 11 exhibition games, Span is hitting .355. He's shown a great plate approach with four walks and only two strikeouts, he's been aggressive on the bases with five steal attempts, and he even came away from a wall collision in the outfield altogether unscathed. We often caution not to place too much stock in spring numbers, but Span's play in Ft. Myers has been about as encouraging as one could hope for. That doesn't mean he's out of the woods, of course. If the head problems become an issue again for Span, or if he suffers a different injury, the Twins will need to be prepared. In a short-term scenario, Ron Gardenhire could probably just shift a few players around and plug in someone like Rene Tosoni, Ryan Doumit or Darin Mastroianni. If the need is more long-term, it's likely that the Twins would call upon Joe Benson, a top prospect in the organization who – like Span – is having a very strong spring. Benson has posted an OPS above .800 in three straight minor-league seasons and got a taste of the majors last September. At age 24, he appears close to big-league ready. He leads the Twins with 10 RBI in Grapefruit League play after blasting a two-run homer against the Tigers yesterday. His high strikeout totals will be an ongoing concern, but his combination of patience, power and flat-out athleticism are quite intriguing. If Span or another outfielder goes down for a lengthy period of time and Benson continues to impress, it's likely that he'd get the call, either in center or in a corner spot with Revere shifting to the middle. He's one of the organization's only high-quality prospects in the upper levels of the minors, making the outfield an area of relative depth for the club. Of course, the Twins and Benson will both be better off if he's able to log some experience in Triple-A – where he's yet to take a single at-bat – and come up on his own terms rather than out of necessity. The hope is that Span can keep the bad days at bay and help facilitate that process. I'm optimistic that he will. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Span: .280/.350/.370, 4 HR, 50 RBI Click here to view the article

Download attachment: nolasco2.jpg Now there's a funny question to ask. Terry Ryan, who has long been billed by his detractors as stingy and overly conservative when it comes to free agency, drawing criticism for exhibiting too much aggression in his approach to the open market? Not long ago, such a notion would have been difficult to comprehend. Yet, it is fair to wonder if the Twins made the correct choices now that we've seen Matt Garza sign with the Brewers for far less than expected while other top arms remain unsigned in mid-February, their asking prices dropping. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Ryan made franchise history in late November when he signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million contract. Around that same time, he reached agreement with Phil Hughes for three years and $24 million. Both deals were colossal when viewed through the scope of this organization's history, and even outside of that lens, they were bold moves that were labeled overpays in some corners of the baseball world. Given that Garza has now signed for nearly the same amount as Nolasco, who has the lesser resume, those claims gain more credence. But I would argue that even if the Twins did "overpay" for Nolasco and Hughes, the decisions still look good even in hindsight. The Money Doesn't Matter Could Ryan have saved some money by waiting out Nolasco and letting the market develop? It's very possible. But the GM paid what it took to bring him here, just as he did with Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey, and at the end of the day this club won't be needing to worry about saving a few million dollars any time soon. The biggest concern, especially after last year's fizzled efforts, was getting some things done. Statements Do Matter Perhaps the Twins could have gone the direction of a team like the Brewers, who waited the market out and scored a relative bargain when Garza finally settled on their offer. But that approach doesn't really have the same paradigm-shifting effect as signing two pitchers to unprecedented contracts by early December, does it? With many fans growing restless over a perceived sense of apathy from the front office, that kind of message needed to be sent. Draft Picks Also Matter Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez both remain unsigned despite coming off stellar seasons. The rest of the teams across the league, much like the Twins, are wary of surrendering a high draft pick in addition to a hefty salary commitment in order to add a starting pitcher with significant wear on his arm. Among the group of free agent pitchers who did not have compensatory picks attached, Nolasco and Hughes were among the most appealing. Also in that group were Garza, who signed in late January, and Bronson Arroyo, who finally signed last week. Arroyo's two-year deal with the Diamondbacks is worth more than double the one Pelfrey signed to round out the Minnesota rotation, and I highly doubt that Arroyo's production at ages 37 and 38 will warrant that sizable differential. That the Twins pulled things together so quickly with Nolasco and Hughes indicates that both pitchers -- at least to some extent -- wanted to be here. That's something that Ryan values, and not without good reason. While some might question the decision to strike so early in the offseason now that the pitching market has unexpectedly dragged on, seeing the indecisiveness and endless haggling going on elsewhere only makes me feel better about the Twins' front office taking the initiative to lock up two guys they coveted right away, even if that meant paying a little more. Click here to view the article

As April has shifted into May, the Minnesota offense has cooled off a bit but continues to get the job done. On Friday they were shut out for just the second time all year, but they bounced back to score 11 runs in a pair of wins on Saturday and Sunday. The series victory over the weekend brought the Twins back within a game of .500. The offense seems sustainably effective, with Joe Mauer starting to heat up, Oswaldo Arcia preparing to return and several other lineup fixtures continuing to look good. So the club's ability to stay around the .500 mark will probably hinge on the rotation's ability to deliver quality starts, as it did in all three games against the Orioles. There's much change afoot in the starting corps, so let's examine the state of the unit as we head into the second month. * Following another poor start on Thursday, the Twins finally made a move with Mike Pelfrey, placing the righty on the disabled list with a groin injury. Pelfrey said the ailment had nothing to do with his performance, and keeps insisting that there's nothing wrong with his arm, but I'm not buying that he's physically right. He has tallied more walks than strikeouts in four straight starts, and according to Mike Berardino, Pelfrey touched 91 on the radar only six times in his entire start Thursday; this is a guy who averaged more than 92 miles per hour on his heater last year, and is ostensibly supposed to be getting stronger as he moves away from Tommy John. I liked what I saw from Pelfrey in the second half last year, and held the somewhat unpopular opinion that his two-year deal signed during the offseason could turn out to be a decent value, but this year he has been a complete mess and not himself. Hopefully this time away helps him get straightened out so he can return and be an asset, whether in the rotation or bullpen. * Replacing Pelfrey in the starting five is a guy who probably should have been there all along: Samuel Deduno. Download attachment: deduno.jpg He was the team's best starter last season and followed up with a brilliant spring, showing no ill effects from offseason shoulder surgery. But Deduno was on the outside looking in during the first five weeks, working in a mop-up relief role where his outstanding work (2.89 ERA with 18 K in 18 2/3 innings) was underutilized. Now that he's back where he belongs, let's see if Deduno can replicate or even improve on his success from a year ago. As you may recall, he joined the Twins rotation in late May of 2013 and put up a 3.17 ERA in his first 13 starts, completing six or more innings in all but two. His play took a turn for the worse in mid-to-late September, but it seems fair to assume the shoulder troubles may have contributed to that. Now Deduno is healthy and coming in with a head full of steam. Should be entertaining to watch. * Deduno is a fun story because he never really emerged as a top prospect and didn't get an extended look in the majors until he was 28, but has proven to be a late bloomer with unforeseen upside. Another guy currently playing in Triple-A is attempting to craft a similar story. After tossing a complete game shutout on Saturday, Yohan Pino is now 5-0 with a 0.84 ERA for the Rochester Red Wings. In 32 innings across seven appearances (three starts), Pino has a 31-to-7 K/BB ratio and has allowed only 15 hits. That's domination. A skinny right-hander, Pino was originally signed by the Twins out of Venezuela and was a solid performer in the system before being traded to Cleveland for Carl Pavano in '09. Pino has since bounced around among a few different organizations. He had a great showing last year while playing in Triple-A for the Reds, so the Twins brought him back during the offseason. He's not currently on the 40-man roster, but if he keeps pitching lights-out in Rochester the 30-year-old is bound to get a chance at making his major-league debut sometime this summer. He doesn't have a high ceiling but with his excellent control and decent stuff, he could make a positive impact. * While Pino is intriguing enough, Alex Meyer and Trevor May are clearly the starters in Triple-A with the best chance to be difference-makers for the Twins rotation. Both pitched over the weekend. May has been inconsistent for the Red Wings, but has looked terrific at times, including his latest start in which he struck out 11 over six innings while allowing only one walk and three hits. Meyer pitched Sunday and came back to Earth after back-to-back spectacular outings, failing to complete five innings. Both need to demonstrate more start-to-start consistency before they'll be in the mix for a call-up to the majors, and the Twins will probably take it extra slow with Meyer for various reasons (he's not on the 40-man, he's coming off an injury-shortened season, Super 2 arbitration status is a consideration), but each is pitching his way toward getting a chance sometime this season. That will keep the pressure on Kevin Correia to keep pitching like he did on Saturday -- as it should be. * Among the three free agent starters that the Twins signed this offseason, the one I was most optimistic about was Phil Hughes. His age, combined with the fact that he'd spent his entire career in a tough pitching environment, made it plausible that we hadn't yet seen him at his best. Everyone was buzzing about Hughes when I was down in spring training and it wasn't hard to see why. His pitches were hard and sharp and one sensed that if he could stay healthy and command his offerings, good things were in store. After six starts, Hughes has been pretty much everything I'd hoped. His control has been excellent and he has attacked the strike zone, even after some bad fortune early on (opponents hit an absurd .409 on balls in play in his first three starts). As that has begun to normalize, Hughes has quickly emerged as the team's best starter. In fact, he's head-and-shoulders above the rest. While an inability to last deep into games was one of the marks against him in New York, Hughes has completed at least five innings and kept his team in the game every time out, and that's not true for anyone else on the staff. Also, in a rotation where -- very disturbingly -- no other starter is averaging more than 4.7 K/9IP, Hughes is providing a much-needed change of pace at 7.6. He is striking out nearly five hitters for every one he walks; every other starter's ratio has been close to one to one (or in Pelfrey's case, tilted in the wrong direction). Simply put, Hughes has been everything the Twins need him to be, and there's no doubt that right now they're feeling pretty good about having the 27-year-old locked up for the next three years. ~~~ Sunday's win was big because it gave the Twins a series victory heading into a long and difficult road trip. It was also big because it gives YOU 50% off your order from PapaJohns.com on Monday with the promo code "TWINSWIN." By the way, we've been giving away tons of free pizzas on our Facebook and Twitter pages, and will continue to do so. Make sure you're following along for your chance at a free dinner, along with all sorts of other baseball goodness. Click here to view the article

You may have noticed a few changes around here recently. That's because we've been making some slight upgrades to the look and functionality of the site, thanks to the addition of a new member to the Twins Daily team. Please welcome Brock Beauchamp, who posts here under the user name rocketpig. Brock is a web designer by trade and he's got plenty of experience running an online Twins community, as he oversaw the website Battle Your Tail Off for many years. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]I've been an on-and-off participant at BYTO, a message board known for its snark and high-level Twins discourse. Brock felt he was starting to burn out on managing the site so he came to us with a proposal to fold it into Twins Daily. We were happy to bring him aboard. Download attachment: Logo.png By his own admission, Brock isn't a writer, so you probably won't see many stories from him popping up on the front page. He will, however, be an active contributor and moderator in the forums and his technical skills will be invaluable as we continually work to improve the user experience here at TD.com. Please join me in giving Brock (and all other migrating members of BYTO) a warm welcome to the community. UPDATE: Brock wrote a blog post explaining some of the changes he's made thus far and calling for suggestions from users regarding what they'd like to see here on the site. Please find that post here. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: diamond.jpg Will the Twins’ de facto ace retain his label as the club’s top starter or descend into mediocrity this year? Let us take a deeper look. 2012 Recap Diamond gained little consideration for a big-league job in spring training after going 5-19 with a 5.44 ERA between Triple-A and the majors in his first year with the organization. So, he reported to Rochester and started his season on a tear, going 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA while flashing much improved control in his first six starts. That was plenty to earn him an invitation up north, where a bloodied staff was looking anywhere it could for bandages.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The lefty was that and more, rattling off a 5-1 record and 1.61 ERA in his first seven starts. He continued to pitch well deep into August before a bit of a rocky finish. Diamond was bound to cool off, but the let-up didn't come in the form of a ghastly regression to the mean, as he still finished with very strong numbers. At the end of the year, Twins brass made it clear that Diamond was the only starter who had guaranteed himself a spot on the 2013 staff. In a season where just about everything that could possibly go wrong in the rotation did so, Diamond was a breath of fresh air. Contrasting sharply with most of his injured or fledgling counterparts, he rebounded from a brutal year to become a shockingly steady force. To say he was the rotation's rock would be an understatement; he threw 64 more innings than any other Twin despite spending his first month in Triple-A. It's a success story that the club will cling to as they hope to get lucky with several wild cards this year. Why He’ll Be Worse This is a pretty straightforward case for anyone with an understanding of statistical probabilities in baseball. Diamond held one of the lowest strikeout rates among all MLB starters, but was able to limit the damage on balls in play by inducing lots of grounders and handing out very few walks. His GB rate (53.4 percent) was among the top ten in the majors and his walk rate (1.6 BB/9) was the lowest in the American League. Diamond has posted strong grounder rates throughout his career but it's tough to be elite in that category from year to year, especially as hitters make their adjustments. His phenomenal walk rate was out of character with previous norms; in fact, his mediocre control in the Braves organization is probably a big reason they were willing to part with him. To turn around and become one of the most prolific strike-throwers in the majors is either a remarkable triumph of dedication and coaching, a fluke, or both. Any regression in walk rate or BABIP will decrease his margin for error, at which point an inopportune extra-base hit here and there can dramatically change his results. It's the nature of a pitch-to-contact hurler relying on control and grounders. As a relevant example, think of how volatile Carlos Silva was from year to year. Why He’ll Be Better Let’s be honest: there’s almost no chance Diamond will be better than he was last year. While everything was going wrong for everyone else in the rotation, everything was going right for him and the odds that he’ll be able to match his core statistical marks from 2012 are extremely low. What fans and coaches are hoping is that Diamond can maintain, or regress modestly, and remain a quality mid-rotation starter while logging 200 innings. As long as his BABIP doesn’t skyrocket and he can keep the BB/9 mark down, that’s a perfectly realistic goal. The ground balls are more than likely going to be there, as he has demonstrated throughout his career a keen ability to keep the ball down, which also prevents many from leaving the park. Conclusion There's a conception that stat-driven analysis is overly focused on strikeouts, and fails to give much consideration to any other aspect of pitching performance. But Diamond's 2012 season was the perfect example of the things a stat-head would look for in a guy that doesn't rack up a lot of whiffs. He pelted the lower regions of the strike zone, resulting in weaker contact and few free passes. This approach also yielded extremely low pitch counts (he never totaled more than 104 in a start despite completing seven-plus innings 13 times), and you know how much the Twins appreciate that. Diamond's successful 2012 season was characterized by his ability to throw strikes, get ahead in counts and challenge hitters. Will the new season establish his strides in those departments as trend or mirage? That's the question that could very well dictate whether he's an asset or a liability. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: revereswing.jpg When he was a prospect coming up through the minors, Ben Revere showed promise as a lightning-fast outfielder who could make things happen with his legs and with his glove. He was drafted in the first round in 2007, put himself on the map by leading the Midwest League with a .379 average in 2008 and graduated to the majors by the age of 22. Revere's projected value in the bigs is overstated by minor-league numbers that include a .326/.385/.408 slash line and 154 stolen bases over parts of five seasons. His ability to terrorize opponents on the base paths will only be an asset if he's getting on at a steady clip, and since he's not going to be able to do so by coaxing walks, his offensive value will largely hinge on his ability to hit for average. While rising through the Twins' system, Revere never walked in more than 8 percent of his plate appearances at any level. It's not hard to see why; he likes to swing and put the ball in play, and pitchers at higher levels aren't afraid to throw him strikes on three-ball counts since he's virtually incapable of hitting the ball over an outfielder's head. This was particularly evident last year, when Revere drew a free pass only 32 times in 622 plate appearances between Triple-A and the majors. For reference, that 5 percent walk rate is only one point higher than Delmon Young's career mark. It'd be nice if Revere walked a little more often, but he is who he is and that's not likely to change. Therefore, he'll need to hit his way on base in order to maximize his impact. That was never really a problem for Revere the prospect, who batted over .300 at every single minor-league stop, but last year he got a cold dose of reality as big-league pitchers held him to a .267 average. He had stretches where the hits would fall in, and he did finish the season strong, batting .394 with seven multi-hit efforts in his final 15 games. Revere gets out of the box and down the line fast enough that he can frequently leg out singles on weak contact. Still, batting over .300 in a major-league season is a tough task, and it's near impossible when you're beating the ball into the ground nearly 70 percent of the time and when those grounders often don't make it past the pitcher's mound. As a defensive specialist and No. 9 hitter, Revere doesn't carry lofty offensive expectations, but last year's .619 OPS simply won't cut it for a regular. There's not much reason to expect a significant boost in walks or extra-base hits, so the key to offensive success for the young outfielder will be an increase in hard grounders that skip past gloves and line drives that drop in front of outfielders, at the expense of those weak infield rollers. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: capps1.jpg He’s still lurking out there. As the offseason nears its close and spring training rapidly approaches, Matt Capps remains a free agent. Since the Twins bought out his 2013 option back in October, there has been very little buzz surrounding the right-handed reliever. At this point, one would have to believe that he could easily be signed to a fairly cheap one-year deal. Should the Twins be the ones to give it to him? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] At the beginning of the offseason, Terry Ryan surprisingly stated that his No. 2 priority behind starting pitching was the bullpen. Unless you're confident that Rich Harden is going to become a quality reliever or one of the various iffy minor-league arms they brought in will pan out, nothing has really been done to address that unit as of yet. Capps invokes a lot of strong emotions for Twins fans – mostly negative. The team gave up too much to acquire him in the first place and spent too much to retain him, myopically focusing on his experience as a closer rather than viewing him as what he is: a perfectly serviceable yet unspectacular righty arm for the late innings. Now, the Twins have their closer in Glen Perkins, and overpaying for Capps is no longer a real concern. Relievers don’t typically land big contracts in late January, and even if Terry Ryan were to pay a bit more in a one-year pact than we’d like, it doesn’t really matter as that money isn’t going to prevent him from making any moves he would have otherwise. There are enough intriguing arms in the mix for relief jobs this year that one could envision the Twins cobbling together a decent unit without any additions, but Capps would immediately become one of their most established players and would increase the margin for error if, say, Jared Burton’s injury issues reemerge or Casey Fien regresses. Capps wasn’t a great closer and his strikeout rate has plummeted in the past two seasons, coinciding with a velocity drop, but his 1.17 WHIP during that span is quite solid and he’s still under 30. As long as there aren’t major lingering questions about his health, he seems like a good bet to be an average middle reliever at worst, and a reliable setup man at best. That would make him an asset. Even if his ability to protect leads ends up mattering little in what’s shaping up to be another down year, a bounceback campaign would position him to be flipped for something of value around the deadline (albeit not a Wilson Ramos). Capps has caused me and others plenty of frustration over the past few years, but if you take away all that history he looks like a fine, logical option for a team looking to shore up its rotation with a solid veteran. The Twins are familiar with Capps and clearly value his presence in the clubhouse. Why not go out and get him, adding a slight jolt to this winter of inaction? Click here to view the article

Download attachment: kurt-suzuki.JPG When the Twins signed Kurt Suzuki back in December, it looked like they were adding a veteran backup catcher to the roster. After all, Suzuki has hit like a backup over the past four years (.650 OPS), served as a backup with two different clubs last season, and is getting paid like a backup at $2.75 million. However, folks around camp are talking about the new addition as essentially a lock to open the season as Minnesota's starter behind the plate. That's not entirely surprising[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], considering that his only real competition for the assignment is a rookie with raw receiving skills and only 40 games of experience above Double-A, but it does mean that if Pinto doesn't emerge as a capable replacement relatively early in the season, the catcher position could be a major offensive liability this year. I'd like to believe that Suzuki has some upside at the plate. He was a very good hitter in college, in the minors and early on his major league career. But since 2010 he has been consistently anemic with the bat, and at this point his flashes of solid production feel like distant memories. Suzuki is considered an asset defensively, so he ought to hold his own on that end, but if he's the regular backstop for a prolonged period, the Twins are going to be looking at a massive offensive drop-off from the position's previous tenant. Since improving the lineup is a high priority this year, receiving minimal output from catcher (in addition to shortstop and perhaps a couple others) would be difficult to stomach. So undoubtedly the Twins are hoping Pinto can show enough early in the season to take over the reins and provide some meaningful help with the stick. Early this month, Parker took a detailed look at Pinto's game, lauding the 24-year-old's ability to handle offspeed pitches and drive the ball to all fields. Pinto obviously won't replicate what Joe Mauer was able to do at the dish, but his strong marks in the minors over the past two years and his outstanding MLB debut last September are grounds for belief that he can be a quality contributor at catcher, where the average AL player hit just .246/.312/.396 in 2013. It's not out of the question Pinto could take the starting job right out of the gates if he tears it up over the next month, but I think it is far more likely the Twins will wait until they're fully confident he's ready for the task, offensively and especially defensively. Based on the signals they're sending, it sounds like they're not there yet -- maybe not close. Pinto has been labeled by some as the "favorite" to back up Suzuki but I'm skeptical the club would take away regular at-bats from a developing player, especially one with so little experience in Triple-A. Chances are that Suzuki will be backed up by Chris Hermann (who offers some platoon appeal as a lefty) or Eric Fryer, who is considered to be one of the strongest defensive backstops in the organization. It's doubtful we'll see a third catcher since Gardy no longer must juggle part-time designated hitters at the position. If the Twins are truly counting Suzuki as their opening day starter, Pinto has about five weeks to change their minds. And if he can't accomplish it in Ft. Myers, we'll all be crossing our fingers he can do so in Rochester, because otherwise there's little reason to have confidence in the catcher position this year. Click here to view the article

Like a car engine struggling on an icy day, the Twins' lineup had a tough time revving up during the chilly month of April. Ambitious thoughts about the potential for an offensive core powered by numerous potent bats went wayward as the runs trickled in at a disappointing pace. The Twins finished the season's first month ranking near the bottom of the league in OPS and runs scored. This, at least for me, was somewhat jarring, because from my standpoint they didn't appear to be overmatched. Hitters throughout the lineup were taking good at-bats, several key players were excelling and, most importantly, everyone was healthy. But overall the offensive unit just wasn't clicking. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Here in May, the tide seems to be turning. And this transformation has taken place in the most unlikely of ball parks. Entering this week's four-game series against the Twins, the Red Sox were 20-11, including 11-5 at Fenway Park. In their own yard, Boston had held opponents to an average of 3.8 runs per game. With the league's hottest rotation leading the way, the Sox had jumped out to an early lead in the rugged American League East. The Twins hardly looked intimidated. In the opener, they jumped on April's AL Pitcher of the Month, Clay Buchholz, hanging four runs on him in six innings. This marked the first time this year the right-hander has allowed more than two runs in a start or completed fewer than seven frames. After ultimately coming up short in that game, the Twins won the next three for an impressive series victory. In the four-game set the offense scored 31 runs. Suddenly, the team's numbers look quite a bit more respectable. The Twins now sit seventh in the AL in runs per game, with a 4.58 mark that places them above the league average. The team OPS has cracked the .700 mark at .702, about 20 points higher than when they opened the series. Will this upward trend continue? It's hard to see why not. Joe Mauer continues to look like Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham is doing his thing and Trevor Plouffe is beginning to drive in runs at a steadier pace. Justin Morneau is the remaining wild card in the middle of the lineup, but he's one player who appears poised to turn the corner and start crushing it at any time. Elsewhere, we're seeing increasing signs of life. Pedro Florimon has been surprisingly competent at the plate and hasn't slowed down yet. Ryan Doumit has broken out of his early-season slump and is hitting .308/.345/.577 in May. Oswaldo Arcia, who turned 22 on Thursday, is transforming into an impact hitter before our eyes. Download attachment: arcia.jpg Sure, there are still underperformers – Aaron Hicks hasn't had a multi-hit game, Chris Parmelee holds a .611 OPS and Brian Dozier hasn't shown much consistency at the plate – but in each case these are young, developing players with seemingly nowhere to go but up. My biggest reason for excitement regarding this season was that the Twins figured to be, if not competitive, at least quite entertaining to watch. So far, they have been both, even with the offense largely falling short of its potential. Are they now taking steps toward meeting that potential? Too soon to say, but the lineup made a resounding statement in Boston this week and now returns to Target Field for a nine-game homestand. Click here to view the article

If ever there was a clear culprit for a ruined season, it was the Twins' starting pitching corps in 2012. While reasonably decent in the lineup and bullpen, the team stood no chance of competing thanks to an outrageously bad year from the rotation. Pinpointing exactly what went wrong within that unit is more complicated. When you're talking about a group that ranked last in the AL in ERA, hits allowed and opponent OPS, there are obviously a multitude of factors in play.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] But if you had to narrow the staff's troubles down to three principal issues, they'd probably be: 1) injuries, 2) lack of exceptional talent, and 3) heavy contact tendencies backed by a questionable defense. Heading into the new campaign, it's hard to feel a whole lot better about any of those areas. The injury bug has already bit, with the planned Opening Day starter (Scott Diamond) on the shelf and the most buzzworthy rotation contender (Samuel Deduno) also sidelined. When it comes to talent available at the major-league level, it's not clear the Twins upgraded significantly in the offseason by swapping out Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Carl Pavano in exchange for Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley. And none of those new names are renowned for missing bats, a quality was sorely lacking in the 2012 season. Twins starters averaged 5.53 strikeouts per nine innings – the lowest figure for any MLB team's rotation since 2009. Considering that the Twins traded away arguably their two best defenders during the offseason, another endless barrage of balls in play doesn't bode especially well. The downside is harrowing, but this unit is not without its glimmers of upside and intriguing storylines. Let's take a quick look at the five pitchers who will likely comprise the rotation when the season kicks off next week, as well as the various hurlers who will be lined up to step in when certain members inevitably falter. 1. Vance Worley, RHP 2012 Stats: 133 IP, 6-9, 4.20 ERA, 107/47 K/BB, 1.51 WHIP Download attachment: worley.jpg Acquired from Philly in the Ben Revere trade, Worley goes from being a back-end arm living in the shadows of Halladay, Hamels and Lee to Opening Day starter for the Twins. He draws that assignment largely because of circumstance, but he is the club's best hope for a legitimate rotation-fronter. He's still only 25, and his 3.50 career ERA is impressive. However, that success has come in the National League and now he must adjust to the more relentless AL format, with designated boppers replacing pitchers in opposing lineups. This transition, along with a surgically repaired elbow that bogged him down in the latter part of the '12 season, could prevent him from achieving the same type of results. 2. Kevin Correia, RHP 2012 Stats: 171 IP, 12-11, 4.21 ERA, 89/46 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say nothing at all. Moving on… 3. Mike Pelfrey, RHP 2012 Stats: 19.2 IP, 0-0, 2.29 ERA, 13/4 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP An imposing presence on the mound at 6'7" and 250 lbs, with velocity to match, Pelfrey had his ups and downs while playing for the Mets. A strong and resilient arm enabled him to make 31-plus starts in four straight seasons before his elbow gave out early last year, and now he'll test that arm to the max as he seeks to return to the mound in the opening week, which would give him the fastest Tommy John recovery for a starting pitcher, ever. What's more: most pitchers who have come back anywhere near this timeframe have done so late in a season, tossing a few innings and then resting up over the winter. Pelfrey is attempting to come back after 11 months and take on a full season's workload, which is basically unheard of. I'll be wishing him the best but expecting plenty of bumps early on, especially since it sounds like his velocity still isn't close to pre-surgery norms. 4. Liam Hendriks, RHP 2012 Stats: 85.1 IP, 1-8, 5.59 ERA, 50/26 K/BB, 1.55 WHIP In spite of his tremendous production in the minor leagues, Hendriks has looked out of place pitching in the majors, timidly going after hitters with a repertoire that simply hasn't been effective at the highest level. In 85 innings spread across 16 starts last year, the right-hander coughed up 106 hits, including 17 home runs. He pitched well enough this spring to justifiably earn a job but was far from dominant. His superb track record while rising through the Twins' system is deserving of a long look this year, particularly with the dearth of other quality options, but if his results are similar he may have a hard time finding such an opportunity. 5. Cole De Vries, RHP 2012 Stats: 87.2 IP, 5-5, 4.11 ERA, 58/18 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP De Vries is in the same boat as Hendriks in that he lacks outstanding stuff -- in fact, he has less velocity and his secondary pitches produce less bite, from my view -- but he managed to garner much better results in a similar sample size last year and the same was true this spring. De Vries carries a shiny 0.64 ERA and has been almost unhittable in Grapefruit League action, but it will take a lot more than that to prove that the 28-year-old longtime farmhand belongs in a big-league rotation. As a Minnesota native, a former Gopher and by all accounts a nice guy, I'm rooting for him. But I can't help feeling that his presence in the rotation is a major indictment of where this team is at as the season gets underway. ... That's how the rotation will shape up at the start of the season, and it's without question going to be worst group the league has to offer, on paper. The best hope for the Twins is that some of the pitchers listed below will replace weak links over the course of the summer, allowing this unit to get stronger as the season goes on. Scott Diamond, LHP: He opens the season on the DL, since recovery from a minor offseason elbow surgery has dragged on longer than expected, but he's on pace to return in mid-April and will probably unseat the worse performer between Hendriks and De Vries. Samuel Deduno, RHP: After an electric performance for Team Dominicana in the World Baseball Classic, Deduno was ready to jump into the rotation with a head full of steam. Unfortunately, a groin injury will delay his opportunity to transfer the preseason success to meaningful MLB games, but when he finally takes the mound for Minnesota he'll be doing so with the most confidence of his career. Deduno is one to watch. Kyle Gibson, RHP: The Twins left the door open for Gibson to win a spot in the rotation, but some ugly bouts with command this spring confirmed that he's not quite ready yet. Chances are good that he will be after sharpening up for a month or two in Triple-A, and at that point he could immediately become the team's best starter. P.J. Walters, RHP: Walters is always going to be interesting because he spins a dynamite breaking ball, but unfortunately the nasty hook comes coupled with a fastball that falls blatantly short of major-league quality. Still, if you need a spot starter in a pinch, he's not the worst guy to have on hand. He had some nice moments last year. Rich Harden, RHP: He's worth mentioning here, because in a mix that lacks exciting upside he's the one guy who has been a top-flight MLB pitcher at one point in his career. He probably won't be an option until June at the earliest, but if Harden returns to the mound and is throwing well, he should have an easy path back to the majors. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 4049879.jpg You can view the entire library of the critically acclaimed weekly Twins podcast, starring John Bonnes and Aaron Gleeman, here. LATEST EPISODES Episode 25: AL Central & Cleavage (1/25/12) Aaron and John get interrupted by a drunk woman who want to show them her "Twins", but recover enough to talk about Kevin Slowey returning to the AL Central, Prince Fielder signing with the Tigers, Justin Morneau's health status, what to expect from the Tigers, White Sox, Indians, and Royals, and why re-signing Matt Capps keeps looking worse. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Episode 24: Zumaya and Arbitration (1/18/12) Aaron and John are joined by special guest Nick Nelson and talk about the Joel Zumaya signing, Glen Perkins, Alexi Casilla, Francisco Liriano, and the arbitration process, Roy Oswalt rumors, Delmon Young's contract with the Tigers, Victor Martinez's injury, and looking back at the top Twins prospects of 2011. Episode 23: Mailbag 3 (1/11/12) Aaron and John open up the mailbag and take questions from readers about a wide range of topics including the payroll drop, what happens if Justin Morneau can't play, the search for righty relief, disliked players and the media, Danny Valencia's future, Levi Michael's timetable, and Moneyball. Episode 22: Marquis and Morris (1/4/12) Aaron and John talk about Jason Marquis filling out the rotation, whether the Twins will sign a right-handed reliever, Jack Morris' case for the Hall of Fame, Jose Mijares making more money elsewhere, the possibility of a dating podcast, and a 29th birthday. Episode 21: Mijares and Minor Moves (12/27/11) Aaron and John talk about Jose Mijares' departure, Bill Smith's return, Prince Fielder's likely home, waiving Jim Hoey, signing former top prospects to minor-league deals, slashing $15 million off the payroll, Jacque Jones' post-playing career, Joe Mauer's love life, and dieting tips from a fatboy. Episode 20: Willingham, Cuddyer and Kubel (12/21/11) Aaron and John talk about swapping Michael Cuddyer for Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel's departure, Christmas vs. Hanukkah, projecting the Twins' lineup, outfield defense, how to use the leftover payroll on pitching, a Ben Revere-Trevor Plouffe platoon, first impressions of Ricky Rubio, and what not to drink at a party. Episode 19: Three Amigos (12/13/11) Aaron and John are joined by special guest Seth Stohs/Minor League Guru (and Phil Loadholt, sort of) to talk about the good old days of blogging, Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle, the White Sox blowing things up, the over/under on Twins wins in 2012, Alexi Casilla vs. Luke Hughes vs. Trevor Plouffe, and a whole bunch of prospect stuff. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: worley.jpg You've probably heard the story by now. On the very day that Vance Worley was told by Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. that he'd been traded from the Phillies to the Minnesota Twins, the 25-year-old pitcher had been planning to pick up an engagement ring from the jeweler so that he could propose to his girlfriend. Worley, who had just signed a lease for a new house in South Jersey nearby Philly, suddenly had his entire life uprooted. He would be leaving the only organization he'd ever known and heading to the American League Central, where instead of pitchers, the opposing lineups are rounded out by powerful designated hitters like Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Billy Butler and Mark Reynolds. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Tough break for a control pitcher with fringy stuff. And as it turns out, Worley's misfortune was just beginning. Maybe while he was packing his belongings for the move to the Midwest, he dropped a mirror and shattered it. Maybe he walked under a ladder, or a black cat crossed his path. Whatever the reason, the right-hander has been snakebitten thus far for the Twins, experiencing tumult unlike anything he's seen in his career. When he entered the fold, Worley instantly became the Twins' most accomplished starting pitcher, as reflected by his assignment to start on Opening Day. In parts of three seasons with the Phillies, he had compiled an 18-13 record and 3.50 ERA and in 2011 he finished third for Rookie of the Year. Yet the early results in Minnesota have been roundly disappointing. Through seven starts, Worley is 0-4 with a 6.95 ERA. In 33 2/3 innings, he has given up a league-leading 55 hits, contributing to a ghastly 1.90 WHIP. After each poor start, Worley sounds like a guy who's more flabbergasted than frustrated. "The ball was coming out, doing what I wanted it do," he said after coughing up six runs in Detroit last week. "They just came out swinging." While it might be easy to see a lack of accountability in the pitcher's remarks, it's also not hard to see some truth. He really is doing many of the same things that made him a successful pitcher in Philly. His velocity is the same, he's throwing strikes and his pitches are moving. He is by all accounts healthy and feeling good. His ground ball rate, at 50.4 percent, is actually far higher than his norm. Still the hits keep coming. Worley has been saddled with a batting average on balls in play of .407, which is the highest in the major leagues and 90 points above his previous career mark. That is a sign of dreadful luck. Sure, it doesn't help that the Twins aren't an especially great defensive club, and Worley has given up his fair share of hard hits, but nothing can explain such an exorbitant number. He's getting killed by bleeders and bloopers. In addition, Worley's HR/FB rate of 13.9 percent is the highest on the Twins staff and the highest of his career. He's stranding only 61.4 percent of his ample base runners – the lowest mark of his career and the lowest of any Twins' starter save for Mike Pelfrey. Certainly Worley needs to make some adjustments. Whether it's scouting-related or the nature of AL lineups, hitters have been more aggressive against him this year and he needs to find a way to leverage that rather than letting it beat him. But he hasn't pitched anywhere near as badly as his numbers suggest and over time, if he keeps executing his game plan, he is going to get better results. There's simply no way this run of poor luck can sustain, unless he did incur some type of voodoo curse over the offseason. That isn't to say Worley is going to turn into a legitimate No. 1 starter any time soon, or even that he'll be able to match his NL success. His 12.7 percent K-rate leaves much to be desired and falls well short of his 20 percent mark in the senior circuit. Nevertheless, I think his 4.18 xFIP is a much better indicator of what we can expect from him going forward than his current bloated ERA. Click here to view the article

Yeah, it's only the second week of March. But early in spring training, positive signs have been hard to come by for this offense. Today at Hammond Stadium, the Twins snapped a string of 27 consecutive scoreless innings, but did so without a run-scoring hit. Their two runs both came on bases-loaded walks. The latter took place with two outs in the ninth inning, drawing the Twins within a run of the Cardinals before Rene Tosoni grounded out to second on the first pitch of the next at-bat to end the game. Aye, aye, aye. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins, who haven't collected an extra-base hit since last weekend, continue to look stagnant at the plate. Only one player finished with multiple hits on Friday, and it was Wilkin Ramirez, a non-roster invitee who singled in his two plate appearances after relieving Brian Dinkelman in left field. On the pitching side, Jason Marquis got the start for the Twins and allowed one run over three innings. Certainly an improvement over his first outing, but with only 20 of his 39 pitches going for strikes, he's leaving plenty to be desired in the control department. Glen Perkins struck out two in a perfect fourth inning – his first appearance since signing a new three-year deal – while Matt Capps was tagged with the loss after giving up a home run to Rafael Furcal in the fifth, though he also induced a pair of swinging strikeouts. The Twins' record in Grapefruit League play now sits at 3-5. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: QuestionMarks.jpg With the Twins on pace to lose nearly 100 games for a second straight year, fans have to derive joy from the little things. In a season that was basically lost from the get-go, relative frivolities like the trade deadline, August waiver moves and September call-ups become focal points of interest. Unfortunately, the Twins have been extremely passive on all these fronts, to a degree that is highly disappointing for a rebuilding club. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Their deadline activity amounted to trading Francisco Liriano for a pair of marginal prospects. Their most notable move in August involved dumping Danny Valencia for a 21-year-old A-baller. And their final September call-ups, announced earlier this week, were Luis Perdomo and Eduardo Escobar. In isolation, none of these things are necessarily inexcusable, but together they give the air of an organization that isn't very actively pushing toward the future, nor putting in much effort to provide entertainment to the fans who have stuck around through all this losing. I mean, at the end of the day, that's the point, right? Giving the people who buy tickets and tune in their televisions something worth watching? In a meaningless final month, would it really hurt the development of Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Arcia to come up and take in the atmosphere of an MLB clubhouse, occasionally getting into a game and offering a glimpse of the promising future? Is there any legitimate reason not to take a look at Deolis Guerra, who will be out of options next year and still hasn't faced a major-league hitter? And how can a club that has constantly emphasized a "no scholarships" meritocracy wherein those who earn their shot are rewarded possibly justify promoting Luis Perdomo – a 28-year-old journeyman signed during the offseason who issued seven walks in six innings with the Twins earlier this summer – over Anthony Slama, who has come up through Minnesota's system and dominated every level, including Triple-A this season where his 13.8 K/9 rate leads all of his International League peers? Perhaps the Twins have their developmental reasons for holding off on the likes of Hicks, Arcia and Guerra, but leaving Slama buried despite his phenomenal success defies reason. The organization has to be aware that fans are clamoring for the right-hander, and yet here in this joke of a season they won't let him throw a single pitch. When reporters ask about him all they can get are vague, anonymous quotes about how Slama "does not have good enough stuff to dominate in the big leagues." (As opposed to guys like Jim Hoey, Dusty Hughes and Jeff Gray, who were given plenty of leash in the majors despite their predictable struggles.) Unlike many fans, I'm not angry at the team for being in its current state. All franchises go through ups and downs, and the Twins were about due for a valley after a decade of winning and mostly favorable breaks. What really bothers me is that this organization can't back up its own rhetoric about earned opportunities, continues to weigh the opinions of its scouts too heavily against objective results, and – worst of all – won't level with the fans about questionable decision-making. We deserve better than that. Especially in a time like this. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: arciaswing.jpg As I sat at Target Field on Sunday afternoon, watching a dull game play out between two of the worst teams in the majors, I was finding it difficult to kindle my interest. A lineup that included Jamey Carroll, Doug Bernier, Clete Thomas and Chris Herrmann was being shut down by a pitcher who had entered the game with an 8.07 ERA. I wasn't watching a good team. For the most part, I wasn't even watching the development of players who might be featured on the next good team. One very notable exception was the guy who broke a late-inning tie and propelled the Twins to victory[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK], placing an exclamation point on a triumphant weekend. Oswaldo Arcia is back, and he brings electricity that the fan base needs about as badly as the lineup does. Arcia was sent to Triple-A in mid-July following a particularly brutal string of at-bats. The move was understandable -- he was truly out of sorts -- but it took away one of the most intriguing players on the roster. The 22-year-old outfielder had been mentioned as a Rookie of the Year candidate, and his .725 OPS at the time of his demotion still ranked among the best on the team. To his credit, Arcia responded very well after being sent down, raking to the tune of .375/.490/.725 in 13 games, and that was plenty to get him called right back up. He joined a Twins team that had lost four straight and helped power them to a weekend sweep over the Astros, going 5-for-12 with a triple and a decisive homer in the series. Arcia is a dynamic talent, and his bat instantly upgrades an offense that has been shockingly terrible. He's a big addition, and not only for the pop he brings. He also provides something far more simple, and in equally short supply: a reason to watch. Click here to view the article

Likely Starter: Ryan Doumit 2011 Stats: .303/.353/.477, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 17 R, 0/1 SB Download attachment: doumit.jpg Potential Backups: Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer No team has everything set in stone with two weeks left in spring training. For the Twins, with uncertainties surrounding several players, plenty is subject to change between now and Opening Day. For example, last week I profiled the three outfield spots, and over the weekend it was revealed that two of those positions will be filled by different players than previously thought. Designated hitter is a particularly difficult position to analyze at this point.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Ryan Doumit is expected to be the starter on April 6, and ideally he'll play there frequently so as to limit the exposure of his weak glove at various positions. Yet, his versatility was a big reason Doumit was signed, and there are a number of other players who figure to draw frequent starts at DH, making the position a likely revolving door. There was talk from Twins officials during the offseason that the club might slot Justin Morneau at DH often this year in order to protect his health. The fact that he's playing very little first base in Ft. Myers with the season rapidly approaching would seem to raise the likelihood of that possibility. For his part, Morneau downplays the significance and says he still plans on playing the field regularly. I suspect that if he's healthy, Morneau will spend a fair amount of time at time at designated hitter but will also play some first and will get plenty of days off. Doumit and Joe Mauer will likely be the other main contributors at DH. If Morneau and Mauer are swinging the way they're capable of and Doumit picks up where he left off last year, that gives the Twins three very solid hitters to rotate. If one of those three becomes unavailable, or if Mauer and Morneau are lucky enough to spend most of their time in the field, it's possible that guys like Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes could get some starts at DH. These guys all bring enough upside with the bat to justify the assignment. While the position may lack stability this season, that doesn't mean it won't be a strength. The Twins shouldn't have much trouble finding designated hitters who can hit. Predicted Hitting Line for Doumit: .275/.345/.415, 12 HR, 50 RBI Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Deduno1.jpg I've been bullish on Samuel Deduno, and it's been a point of disagreement between myself and some other generally like-minded Twins writers. Aaron Gleeman has repeatedly warned against buying into the right-hander's small-sample success and the Geek recently lamented the idea of a long-term contract. It's easy to see why any stat-savvy observer would hold reservations. Deduno has performed poorly in a number of key peripheral categories, namely strikeout-to-walk ratio, which many -- myself included -- view as one of the most important indicators of pitcher success. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] But, as I've often said, Deduno is a unique and unconventional case, so in assessing his value going forward, I think it is wise to set aside the statistics we tend to lean on, and look at him through a different lens. The metric that largely causes skepticism with regards to Deduno, as mentioned above, is his K/BB ratio. Last year, in 79 innings with the Twins, the righty totaled nearly as many walks (53) as strikeouts (57), which is almost always a sign that disaster is on the horizon. This year he's cut down the walks, lowering his BB/9 rate from 6.0 to 3.3*, but he's lost a bunch of strikeouts in the process, with his K/9 dropping from 6.5 to 5.0. While improved, his 42/28 K/BB is not close to the 2-to-1 ratio you like to see as a minimum. (*By the way, this probably deserves a post of its own, but I'm thinking Rick Anderson might deserve a TON of credit for Deduno's unprecedented improvements with control. I remember hearing that the pitching coach was working very closely with the hurler, running two bullpen sessions between each start. The extra attention appears to be paying off because Deduno has never maintained a BB/9 rate below four... anywhere, even in the minors. For all the criticism aimed at his failures with Francisco Liriano -- another maddeningly erratic Latin pitcher who is now succeeding elsewhere -- Anderson is really redeeming himself with Deduno.) But, is K/BB ratio the vitally important indicator for Deduno that it is for most other pitchers? His game is based more on inducing weak contact than missing bats, and I've always felt that he can get away with handing out more walks because he's so tough to square up. After all, a free pass only costs one base at a time. Even with a heightened number of base runners, it's tricky for an opposing offense to push guys across the plate without big hits doing the damage. Deduno is holding opposing hitters to a .245 average and a .351 slugging percentage. This dynamic isn't captured well by popular sabermetric measures. The prevailing wisdom behind fielding independent metrics assumes that any pitcher should be expected to allow a BABIP around .300, but Deduno registered a .267 mark last year and is at .272 this year. He appears to have a sustainable skill for limiting damage on balls in play, thanks in large part to his extreme ground ball tendencies (he is the only pitcher in the majors with 60-plus innings and a GB rate above 60 percent, and I'd wager that nobody induces more weakly hit nubbers). Many reasonable observers are still waiting for the other shoe to drop for Deduno, but he has by and large been a very effective starter in the majors over the last two years. Last season his ERA sat at 3.55 before a rough patch in his final three outings shot that mark up above four. This year he owns a 3.18 ERA through 12 turns, and he's pitched into the seventh in all but three starts. There's no guarantee that this will keep up, but I'm through looking for reasons to expect a drop-off. Between his outstanding numbers at Triple-A, his dominance in the World Baseball Classic and his continuing improvement at the major-league level, I'm a believer in Deduno, even if that means moving out my comfort zone analytically. Once you've come around to the idea of Deduno being an ongoing fixture, you'll feel a lot better about the short-term future of this rotation. Despite being 30 years old, Deduno won't even be arbitration eligible until 2015 at the earliest, and he'll remain under team control for several years beyond. Late bloomers can have their advantages. And unlike with R.A. Dickey, it looks like the Twins might have opened the door for this one at the right time. Click here to view the article

In my attempts to determine a plausible best-case scenario for this year's Twins team, I've struggled to come up with real-life examples to use for comparison. On the forum earlier this week, Twins Daily member sam.ekstrom pointed to the 2008 Twins as a potential "doppelganger" for the 2012 squad. I've got to say, I find this to be an encouraging model for a positive outcome if things break reasonably well. Download attachment: blueprint.jpg Now, to be clear, that 2008 team was by no means great. They won 88 games, were a middle-of-the-road club by most statistical measures and came within a game of the playoffs only by virtue of playing in a pretty bad division. But then, coming off a 99-loss season, these current Twins can't very well aspire for true greatness. Instead, they can try to follow the course that turned them from outsiders to contenders four years ago. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Expectations were low for the '08 Twins. They had finished 79-83 in 2007 – their worst mark in eight years – and had watched multiple franchise mainstays depart over the offseason. Yet, they went on to surprise the baseball world by pushing Chicago to a division tiebreaker game, and they didn't do it with outstanding pitching (they finished seventh out of 14 AL teams in ERA) or power hitting (last in the league with 111 homers). Instead, those Twins hit for average, ranking third in the AL at .279, and they were extremely opportunistic (.305/.380/.446 with runners in scoring position). Their pitching wasn't great, but it was good enough. Many point to this year's rotation as a crippling weakness, but take a look at the numbers from that club's starters and tell me that this year's bunch can't at least match them: Nick Blackburn: 33 GS, 11-11, 4.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP Scott Baker: 28 GS, 11-4, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP Kevin Slowey: 27 GS, 12-11, 3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP Glen Perkins: 26 GS, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP Livan Hernandez: 23 GS, 10-8, 5.48 ERA, 1.63 WHIP Francisco Liriano: 14 GS, 6-4, 3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP Boof Bonser also made 12 starts and finished the year with an ERA near 6. This group was a beacon of neither durability (only Blackburn threw more than 173 innings) nor dominance (Liriano led all starters with a 7.9 K/9 rate and the Twins' staff as a whole averaged 6.1 whiffs per nine -- nearly identical to last year's 6.0). The 2008 starters were sufficiently effective because they threw strikes and benefited from solid defense. That's a formula that this year's rotation will seek to follow. Holding leads in the late innings is also important, and while the 2012 bullpen won't likely feature a performer as stellar as Joe Nathan, the overall unit should be able to match the effectiveness of an '08 group that ranked sixth in the AL in ERA, seventh in WHIP and 10th in K/9. From an offensive standpoint, this year's team will similarly have to find ways to push runs across without big power numbers. That 2008 group managed to finish third the AL in runs scored despite ranking last in homers, thanks largely to their ability to hit for average. That ought to be a strength this year for a lineup that will feature Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Ben Revere and Jamey Carroll, among others. Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Danny Valencia will need to chip in some pop and drive in runs, but they've shown the ability to do so in the past. The point of all this is to say that the Twins don't necessarily need Mauer to return to '09 form, or Morneau to go back to hitting 30 home runs, or Liriano to rack up 200 strikeouts. Rather, they can rely on a recipe that's worked for them in the past, which is hitting for a high average, converting on scoring opportunities, throwing strikes, playing strong defense, and hoping that a high-80s win total will be enough to give them a shot in the AL Central. Click here to view the article