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The Outlook In The Outfield
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Based mostly on the fact that he's already pretty big at age 22, and he's started at first twice as much as in the outfield this year at Chattanooga. But I've heard plenty of reports (including Seth's above) that he can be a fine corner OF.- 70 replies
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Standing out among the defining characteristics of the Twins teams that rose to prominence back in the early 2000s were the reliable and steadily productive outfields. It all began with The Soul Patrol – Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones and Matt Lawton – and while the names changed, there was always a sense of stability from year to year. Recently, that has gone amiss. Over the last few seasons, the Twins have handed numerous starts at all three spots to journeyman minor leaguers, cast-offs from other organizations, and ill-suited infielders. Last year, 10 different players started in left field for Minnesota; same thing in right. No one played more 97 games at any outfield position. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Standing out among the defining characteristics of the Twins teams that rose to prominence back in the early 2000s were the reliable and steadily productive outfields. It all began with The Soul Patrol – Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones and Matt Lawton – and while the names changed, there was always a sense of stability from year to year. Recently, that has gone amiss. Over the last few seasons, the Twins have handed numerous starts at all three spots to journeyman minor leaguers, cast-offs from other organizations, and ill-suited infielders. Last year, 10 different players started in left field for Minnesota; same thing in right. No one played more 97 games at any outfield position. Up until now, this year has been much of the same. Already we've seen nine different players draw starts in the outfield (for comparison, the season total in 2010 was six) and the results have been ugly. Here's the total production the Twins have gotten from all three positions, compared to the league averages: Position | Twins OPS | AL OPS LF | .628 | .700 CF | .596 | .721 RF | .726 | .755 Right field has been the only position with any kind of stability, and its occupant is likely to be gone after this season. But the arrival of Byron Buxton over the weekend signaled a hopeful shift away from the revolving door routine in Minnesota's outfield. Barring unforeseen circumstances or injury, Buxton will hold down center field regularly for the rest of this season and beyond. And when it comes to addressing the corner spots on either side, the Twins are in the enviable position of sorting through numerous talented young candidates in their search for a solidified unit. Let's run through some of the players who will be in the mix, with a few perhaps surprising names rounding out the list. (This is more of a short-term view, so I won't dig into any of the prospects that are still multiple years away.) Oswaldo Arcia This has been such a tough year for Arcia that it's easy to forget what a tremendous offensive player he has been for his age level. A recent post by Matthew Pouliout on the HardballTalk blog pointed out that Arcia is one of only seven players under the age of 24 with 500-plus MLB at-bats and a career OPS+ above 100. Defense is clearly Arcia's downfall; he profiles better as a DH and that might be where he ends up. But he could be hidden to some extent in right field, especially with strong defenders in center and left. In spite of his difficulties this month, I remain confident Arcia will be quality middle-of-the-lineup bat for many years, though I'm not as confident it will be here. Eddie Rosario His stock dropped to an all-time low when he missed 50 games last year due to a drug suspension and failed to hit after returning, but Rosario's reclamation tour that began in the Arizona Fall League has been in full swing ever since. The 23-year-old stuck around longer than anyone expected in spring training, drawing consistent praise from Paul Molitor, and was the club's first choice when outfield reinforcements were needed from the minors one month in. Since his arrival in the big leagues, Rosario has done plenty to impress. He is one of only five players on the team with an OPS+ above 100, he's been a dynamic threat on the base paths, and his defense has stood out perhaps more than anything. Having Buxton in center and Rosario in a corner is reminiscent of the Hunter/Jones combo that turned the Metrodome outfield into a no-fly zone. Aaron Hicks It's getting harder and harder to believe that Hicks is going to hit enough to be a major league regular, especially in a corner spot. His .594 OPS with the Twins this year is nearly identical to his .604 overall mark in MLB. But as a switch-hitter that offers speed and premium defense at all three outfield spots, he has the makings of a strong bench option with the upside to eventually turn into a quality starter. He's still only 25 and his production in the minors (particularly in Triple-A this year) leaves no doubt that the offensive ability is there. Max Kepler Signed as a teenager out of Germany back in 2009, Kepler failed to dominate in his initial exposure to pro baseball here in the States. But with his prototypical build, tremendous athleticism and advanced grasp of the strike zone, he was always seen as a guy with the potential to blossom, given a little time. That is exactly what's now happening. Kepler is amidst a breakout season at Double-A, where he's hitting .331/.393/.530. He's flashing power (17 doubles and three homers), speed (five triples and nine steals) and discipline (23-to-19 K/BB). He's hitting lefties (827 OPS), which has been a problem in the past. Kepler is looking like the real deal, and an interesting additional piece in this outfield puzzle. Read Parker Hageman's midseason prospect update on Kepler here. Miguel Sano The notion of Sano moving to an outfield spot, spawned from questions surrounding his ability to stick at third and the entrenched incumbents at Minnesota's infield corners, has been brought up to Twins officials in the past and has never really been downplayed. Terry Ryan and others have been emphatic that the bulking 6'4", 260 lbs. slugger can move well enough to play out there. But up to this point, Sano still has not played a single pro inning at any outfield position, so this remains a theoretical idea. As the names mentioned above suggest, Sano may face no less of a logjam in the outfield corners than the infield ones. Joe Mauer The thinking here is twofold: First, Mauer has a good arm and still moves decently well, assets that go to waste when he's stationed at first base; second, his reduced offensive output plays a little better somewhere like left field -- where the average AL OPS is .706 – than at first base, where it's .792 (highest of any position). The Twins have a number of promising hitters in the system whose best fit appears to be first base, and right now Mauer is blocking them all while providing the worst production in the league for the position. TAKEAWAYS Looking over these candidates, I have three principal takeaways with regard to the Twins' outfield outlook. 1) Arcia seems likely to be traded. The Twins have always valued defense and that's a major shortcoming for Arcia. There have also been indications that the coaching staff isn't always pleased with the slugger's demeanor. If his bat gets going again and draws interest from another club, I could easily see Ryan pulling the trigger. 2) Hicks is running out of time if he hasn't already. Patience is always encouraged with young players, especially a former first-round pick who has produced in the minors, but Hicks is currently failing for a third time in the majors and now the rest of the organization's bright prospective outfield talent has either caught up or passed him. 3) Mauer to left field should be strongly considered. Mainly because at least two people on this list (Kepler and Sano) strike me as better fits at first base than in the outfield, and that's not even mentioning Kennys Vargas, who has no possible landing spot other than first base or DH. Oh, and one other thing: Bringing back Hunter for another year shouldn't even be on the table, regardless of how he produces from here on out. He simply doesn't fit in the scope of what this team is trying to accomplish. What are your thoughts? What are your takeaways from this list, and which alignment would you like to see patrolling Minnesota's outfield for the next several years? View full article
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Up until now, this year has been much of the same. Already we've seen nine different players draw starts in the outfield (for comparison, the season total in 2010 was six) and the results have been ugly. Here's the total production the Twins have gotten from all three positions, compared to the league averages: Position | Twins OPS | AL OPS LF | .628 | .700 CF | .596 | .721 RF | .726 | .755 Right field has been the only position with any kind of stability, and its occupant is likely to be gone after this season. But the arrival of Byron Buxton over the weekend signaled a hopeful shift away from the revolving door routine in Minnesota's outfield. Barring unforeseen circumstances or injury, Buxton will hold down center field regularly for the rest of this season and beyond. And when it comes to addressing the corner spots on either side, the Twins are in the enviable position of sorting through numerous talented young candidates in their search for a solidified unit. Let's run through some of the players who will be in the mix, with a few perhaps surprising names rounding out the list. (This is more of a short-term view, so I won't dig into any of the prospects that are still multiple years away.) Oswaldo Arcia This has been such a tough year for Arcia that it's easy to forget what a tremendous offensive player he has been for his age level. A recent post by Matthew Pouliout on the HardballTalk blog pointed out that Arcia is one of only seven players under the age of 24 with 500-plus MLB at-bats and a career OPS+ above 100. Defense is clearly Arcia's downfall; he profiles better as a DH and that might be where he ends up. But he could be hidden to some extent in right field, especially with strong defenders in center and left. In spite of his difficulties this month, I remain confident Arcia will be quality middle-of-the-lineup bat for many years, though I'm not as confident it will be here. Eddie Rosario His stock dropped to an all-time low when he missed 50 games last year due to a drug suspension and failed to hit after returning, but Rosario's reclamation tour that began in the Arizona Fall League has been in full swing ever since. The 23-year-old stuck around longer than anyone expected in spring training, drawing consistent praise from Paul Molitor, and was the club's first choice when outfield reinforcements were needed from the minors one month in. Since his arrival in the big leagues, Rosario has done plenty to impress. He is one of only five players on the team with an OPS+ above 100, he's been a dynamic threat on the base paths, and his defense has stood out perhaps more than anything. Having Buxton in center and Rosario in a corner is reminiscent of the Hunter/Jones combo that turned the Metrodome outfield into a no-fly zone. Aaron Hicks It's getting harder and harder to believe that Hicks is going to hit enough to be a major league regular, especially in a corner spot. His .594 OPS with the Twins this year is nearly identical to his .604 overall mark in MLB. But as a switch-hitter that offers speed and premium defense at all three outfield spots, he has the makings of a strong bench option with the upside to eventually turn into a quality starter. He's still only 25 and his production in the minors (particularly in Triple-A this year) leaves no doubt that the offensive ability is there. Max Kepler Signed as a teenager out of Germany back in 2009, Kepler failed to dominate in his initial exposure to pro baseball here in the States. But with his prototypical build, tremendous athleticism and advanced grasp of the strike zone, he was always seen as a guy with the potential to blossom, given a little time. That is exactly what's now happening. Kepler is amidst a breakout season at Double-A, where he's hitting .331/.393/.530. He's flashing power (17 doubles and three homers), speed (five triples and nine steals) and discipline (23-to-19 K/BB). He's hitting lefties (827 OPS), which has been a problem in the past. Kepler is looking like the real deal, and an interesting additional piece in this outfield puzzle. Read Parker Hageman's midseason prospect update on Kepler here. Miguel Sano The notion of Sano moving to an outfield spot, spawned from questions surrounding his ability to stick at third and the entrenched incumbents at Minnesota's infield corners, has been brought up to Twins officials in the past and has never really been downplayed. Terry Ryan and others have been emphatic that the bulking 6'4", 260 lbs. slugger can move well enough to play out there. But up to this point, Sano still has not played a single pro inning at any outfield position, so this remains a theoretical idea. As the names mentioned above suggest, Sano may face no less of a logjam in the outfield corners than the infield ones. Joe Mauer The thinking here is twofold: First, Mauer has a good arm and still moves decently well, assets that go to waste when he's stationed at first base; second, his reduced offensive output plays a little better somewhere like left field -- where the average AL OPS is .706 – than at first base, where it's .792 (highest of any position). The Twins have a number of promising hitters in the system whose best fit appears to be first base, and right now Mauer is blocking them all while providing the worst production in the league for the position. TAKEAWAYS Looking over these candidates, I have three principal takeaways with regard to the Twins' outfield outlook. 1) Arcia seems likely to be traded. The Twins have always valued defense and that's a major shortcoming for Arcia. There have also been indications that the coaching staff isn't always pleased with the slugger's demeanor. If his bat gets going again and draws interest from another club, I could easily see Ryan pulling the trigger. 2) Hicks is running out of time if he hasn't already. Patience is always encouraged with young players, especially a former first-round pick who has produced in the minors, but Hicks is currently failing for a third time in the majors and now the rest of the organization's bright prospective outfield talent has either caught up or passed him. 3) Mauer to left field should be strongly considered. Mainly because at least two people on this list (Kepler and Sano) strike me as better fits at first base than in the outfield, and that's not even mentioning Kennys Vargas, who has no possible landing spot other than first base or DH. Oh, and one other thing: Bringing back Hunter for another year shouldn't even be on the table, regardless of how he produces from here on out. He simply doesn't fit in the scope of what this team is trying to accomplish. What are your thoughts? What are your takeaways from this list, and which alignment would you like to see patrolling Minnesota's outfield for the next several years?
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Thanks for the eyewitness perspective. Good to get some insight on Burdi's rough outing.
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That's The Ticket: Buxton's Home Debut
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ha, I chose a specific focus and stuck with it. Also I honestly think the Twins are going to have a very tough time winning either of these games. Those pitching match-ups are... unfavorable. -
There are a number of reasons to make the trip out to Target Field for this week's short two-game set against the Cardinals. It's an important series against the best team in baseball with temps in the 70s. But let's be real, you're going because this is your first chance to see Byron Buxton live in a big-league uniform. Ticket King has got you covered. Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, USA Today There are a number of reasons to make the trip out to Target Field for this week's short two-game set against the Cardinals. It's an important series against the best team in baseball with temps in the 70s. But let's be real, you're going because this is your first chance to see Byron Buxton live in a big-league uniform. Ticket King has got you covered. The Twins announced Buxton's promotion from Double-A on Saturday afternoon, and he made his MLB debut in Texas on Sunday, finishing 0-for-4 but scoring the game-winning run when he raced around to score from first on an Eddie Rosario double into the gap. Now, after playing three games on the road, Buxton arrives in Minnesota to play in front of home fans at Target Field for the first time. The momentous event is expected to draw huge crowds on Wednesday and Thursday. Will you be among them? Triple Threat At the time he was called up, Buxton led all of pro baseball with a whopping 12 triples for Chattanooga, so it's only fitting that his first major-league hit on Monday was a three-bagger. It was no cheapie either, but a standup triple hit to left center. Those are rare, but not for this 21-year-old, who gets from home plate to third base as quickly as anyone you've ever seen: https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/610665940817199105 With its cavernous power alleys, Target Field is well suited for a triples-hitter like Buxton, so we could very well see him pick up another one during this short series. The Tool Shed The "triple threat" term applies in more than way for this budding star, because Buxton can hurt the opposition in three distinct ways: at the plate, on the base paths and in the field. In parts of four minor-league seasons, he was 92-for-118 on stolen base attempts, including 20-for-22 this year at Double-A. Paul Molitor, who is a noted baserunning guru, has already shown a willingness to give Buxton the green light, so expect to see the young speedster take off if he reaches first base. Defensively, Buxton already has the ability to rank among the league's elite thanks to his instincts, speed, arm and flair for the dramatic. In the spacious center field at Minnesota's home yard, you might see him do something like this: Hitting is probably Buxton's least developed skill out of the three at this point, and we've seen that a little bit with him flailing at some tough breaking balls in his first few games. But he had a .296/.380/.486 line in the minors and he has a penchant for finding the gaps with line drives. When he does so, get ready to watch him fly. Speed Thrills It's always exciting when a top prospect gets called up, but Buxton is truly a different breed. Chances are you've never seen a ballplayer move like this before. His speed rates as an 80 on a 20-80 scale and many scouts have remarked that he's the fastest specimen they have encountered. And while it's fun to watch him dart across a TV screen, to get the full effect you really need to see him run in person. It is a sight to behold. PITCHING MATCH-UPS Wednesday, 7:10 PM: Carlos Martinez vs. Tommy Milone Milone, coming off a brilliant effort against the Rangers last Friday, is an extreme fly ball pitcher who generally allows a lot of contact, so Buxton figures to see some action in center field during this game. Young Buck will have his work cut out for him at the plate against Martinez, a hard-throwing righty who leans heavily on a nasty slider, and owns a 0.80 ERA over his last five starts. Forecast (courtesy Weather.com): High of 74, chance of storms Thursday, 12:10 PM: Jaime Garcia vs. Mike Pelfrey Garcia is a left-hander, albeit not one with much of a platoon split. Buxton was cranking against southpaws in Double-A prior to his call-up, with a .341 average and .537 slugging percentage. Unless he faces a lefty reliever on Tuesday night, this will be Buxton's first opportunity to face a portsider in the majors. Meanwhile, Pelfrey is looking to rebound from his worst start of the season. Forecast: High of 78, mostly sunny View full article
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The Twins announced Buxton's promotion from Double-A on Saturday afternoon, and he made his MLB debut in Texas on Sunday, finishing 0-for-4 but scoring the game-winning run when he raced around to score from first on an Eddie Rosario double into the gap. Now, after playing three games on the road, Buxton arrives in Minnesota to play in front of home fans at Target Field for the first time. The momentous event is expected to draw huge crowds on Wednesday and Thursday. Will you be among them? Triple Threat At the time he was called up, Buxton led all of pro baseball with a whopping 12 triples for Chattanooga, so it's only fitting that his first major-league hit on Monday was a three-bagger. It was no cheapie either, but a standup triple hit to left center. Those are rare, but not for this 21-year-old, who gets from home plate to third base as quickly as anyone you've ever seen: https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/610665940817199105 With its cavernous power alleys, Target Field is well suited for a triples-hitter like Buxton, so we could very well see him pick up another one during this short series. The Tool Shed The "triple threat" term applies in more than way for this budding star, because Buxton can hurt the opposition in three distinct ways: at the plate, on the base paths and in the field. In parts of four minor-league seasons, he was 92-for-118 on stolen base attempts, including 20-for-22 this year at Double-A. Paul Molitor, who is a noted baserunning guru, has already shown a willingness to give Buxton the green light, so expect to see the young speedster take off if he reaches first base. Defensively, Buxton already has the ability to rank among the league's elite thanks to his instincts, speed, arm and flair for the dramatic. In the spacious center field at Minnesota's home yard, you might see him do something like this: Hitting is probably Buxton's least developed skill out of the three at this point, and we've seen that a little bit with him flailing at some tough breaking balls in his first few games. But he had a .296/.380/.486 line in the minors and he has a penchant for finding the gaps with line drives. When he does so, get ready to watch him fly. Speed Thrills It's always exciting when a top prospect gets called up, but Buxton is truly a different breed. Chances are you've never seen a ballplayer move like this before. His speed rates as an 80 on a 20-80 scale and many scouts have remarked that he's the fastest specimen they have encountered. And while it's fun to watch him dart across a TV screen, to get the full effect you really need to see him run in person. It is a sight to behold. PITCHING MATCH-UPS Wednesday, 7:10 PM: Carlos Martinez vs. Tommy Milone Milone, coming off a brilliant effort against the Rangers last Friday, is an extreme fly ball pitcher who generally allows a lot of contact, so Buxton figures to see some action in center field during this game. Young Buck will have his work cut out for him at the plate against Martinez, a hard-throwing righty who leans heavily on a nasty slider, and owns a 0.80 ERA over his last five starts. Forecast (courtesy Weather.com): High of 74, chance of storms Thursday, 12:10 PM: Jaime Garcia vs. Mike Pelfrey Garcia is a left-hander, albeit not one with much of a platoon split. Buxton was cranking against southpaws in Double-A prior to his call-up, with a .341 average and .537 slugging percentage. Unless he faces a lefty reliever on Tuesday night, this will be Buxton's first opportunity to face a portsider in the majors. Meanwhile, Pelfrey is looking to rebound from his worst start of the season. Forecast: High of 78, mostly sunny
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The Twins hit four triples in a game on Sunday, so it only feels right that we start the week with a Three-Bagger column, covering three intriguing storylines. Read on and let's dig in. Image courtesy of Jerome Miron, USA Today The Twins hit four triples in a game on Sunday, so it only feels right that we start the week with a Three-Bagger column, covering three intriguing storylines. Read on and let's dig in. * Aaron Gleeman wrote a lengthy and thoughtful piece last week on the transformation that Joe Mauer has undergone as a hitter since sustaining a concussion in 2013. There's no assurance it was that brain injury, suffered on a foul tip off the bat of Ike Davis in a meaningless August game, that turned the six-time All Star from a great hitter to a mediocre one, but he was having a very Mauer-esque season at the time it occurred, and has never been the same since. The careers of Mauer and Justin Morneau – "The M&M Boys" – seem inextricably linked. Both reached the majors around the same time. Both rose to the top ranks at their respective positions, and won MVP Awards. And now both have been struck by concussions on seemingly innocuous plays that, evidently, robbed them of their elite offensive ability. The good news is that Morneau did rebound. It took him a few seasons, and he never regained his standing as a dominant slugger, but he did bat .319 last year with Colorado to lead the National League. It may be that patience is required with Mauer... more than we'd like. However, if the primary culprit for Mauer's devolution as a hitter is aging or cumulative leg wear, it may be that what we see is what we're going to get. In that event, the enormous remaining commitment to him becomes a very serious problem. As painful as it is to say, Mauer is currently the worst offensive first baseman in the American League (by OPS). Will he block better young hitters at the game's most bat-driven position for three years sheerly by virtue of his status? It's an uncomfortable topic to ponder. I just hope Joe can improve. * Speaking of Morneau and uncomfortable topics to ponder, the 34-year-old hasn't played for the Rockies since suffering another concussion while diving after a ground ball on May 16th, and has no return in sight. His manager's words 10 days ago were ominous: "It's difficult for Justin, given his history with concussions," manager Walt Weiss said. "This is a process and we have to wait it out." That's heartbreaking, especially when you look back at some of the quotes in this ESPN.com column written by Jim Caple back in March, titled "Concussion fears real for Justin Morneau." Get well, Justin. * Wow, we're off to a depressing start. Let's round things out with a happier note... How about that Brian Dozier? The contract extension signed by Dozier near the end of spring training was mystifying in that it appeared to provide little benefit to the team, other than potential cost savings in the event that the overachieving Dozier somehow got even better. Right now that's exactly the direction things are headed. Dozier's power over the past two years has been very impressive for his position, but now he's taking things to another level. After piling up four more extra-base hits in Texas over the weekend, the infielder now leads the American League with 36. He has an .883 OPS, and with nearly 40 percent of the season in the books, he's on pace for 53 doubles, eight triples, 34 homers and 133 runs scored. These numbers would not only firmly establish Dozier as one of the top second basemen in all of major-league baseball, it would place him squarely in the MVP discussion. View full article
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* Aaron Gleeman wrote a lengthy and thoughtful piece last week on the transformation that Joe Mauer has undergone as a hitter since sustaining a concussion in 2013. There's no assurance it was that brain injury, suffered on a foul tip off the bat of Ike Davis in a meaningless August game, that turned the six-time All Star from a great hitter to a mediocre one, but he was having a very Mauer-esque season at the time it occurred, and has never been the same since. The careers of Mauer and Justin Morneau – "The M&M Boys" – seem inextricably linked. Both reached the majors around the same time. Both rose to the top ranks at their respective positions, and won MVP Awards. And now both have been struck by concussions on seemingly innocuous plays that, evidently, robbed them of their elite offensive ability. The good news is that Morneau did rebound. It took him a few seasons, and he never regained his standing as a dominant slugger, but he did bat .319 last year with Colorado to lead the National League. It may be that patience is required with Mauer... more than we'd like. However, if the primary culprit for Mauer's devolution as a hitter is aging or cumulative leg wear, it may be that what we see is what we're going to get. In that event, the enormous remaining commitment to him becomes a very serious problem. As painful as it is to say, Mauer is currently the worst offensive first baseman in the American League (by OPS). Will he block better young hitters at the game's most bat-driven position for three years sheerly by virtue of his status? It's an uncomfortable topic to ponder. I just hope Joe can improve. * Speaking of Morneau and uncomfortable topics to ponder, the 34-year-old hasn't played for the Rockies since suffering another concussion while diving after a ground ball on May 16th, and has no return in sight. His manager's words 10 days ago were ominous: "It's difficult for Justin, given his history with concussions," manager Walt Weiss said. "This is a process and we have to wait it out." That's heartbreaking, especially when you look back at some of the quotes in this ESPN.com column written by Jim Caple back in March, titled "Concussion fears real for Justin Morneau." Get well, Justin. * Wow, we're off to a depressing start. Let's round things out with a happier note... How about that Brian Dozier? The contract extension signed by Dozier near the end of spring training was mystifying in that it appeared to provide little benefit to the team, other than potential cost savings in the event that the overachieving Dozier somehow got even better. Right now that's exactly the direction things are headed. Dozier's power over the past two years has been very impressive for his position, but now he's taking things to another level. After piling up four more extra-base hits in Texas over the weekend, the infielder now leads the American League with 36. He has an .883 OPS, and with nearly 40 percent of the season in the books, he's on pace for 53 doubles, eight triples, 34 homers and 133 runs scored. These numbers would not only firmly establish Dozier as one of the top second basemen in all of major-league baseball, it would place him squarely in the MVP discussion.
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Let's face it. The events that unfolded at Target Field this week were disheartening, demoralizing and flat-out depressing. This team had a chance to make a real statement by defending first place at home against the division's top contender and came up completely flat, scoring just three times in three games. However, one area that continues to be a (shocking) major strength for the Twins is keeping me from getting overly distraught. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, USA Today Let's face it. The events that unfolded at Target Field this week were disheartening, demoralizing and flat-out depressing. This team had a chance to make a real statement by defending first place at home against the division's top contender and came up completely flat, scoring just three times in three games. However, one area that continues to be a (shocking) major strength for the Twins is keeping me from getting overly distraught. Lost in the offensive ineptitude of the past two series has been the enduring effectiveness of the starting rotation. While the Twins have lost five of their last six contests, their starting pitchers have combined for a 3.26 ERA during that span, and have completed six or more innings in every game with the exception of J.R. Graham's spot start against Milwaukee. For the season, the Twins rank ninth in the majors and fourth in the American League with a 3.88 ERA from their starters. That is incredible in the context of the past four years: Year | ERA | MLB Rank 2014 | 5.06 | 30th 2013 | 5.26 | 30th 2012 | 5.40 | 29th 2011 | 4.64 | 26th Not only are the Twins experiencing a monumental turnaround in comparison to the last four years, they're actually on track for their best rotation output in nearly a decade. The last time Minnesota ranked ninth or higher in starting pitching ERA was 2006, when they won 96 games behind the outstanding performances of Francisco Liriano, Brad Radke and Cy Young winner Johan Santana. What might be most impressive about this drastic improvement is that the Twins have done it without their big-money free agent signing (who will enter the fold next month), and without their top pitching prospect (who, by many accounts, is big-league ready). They have also done it with 2014's best starter, Phil Hughes, putting up a rotation-worst 4.81 ERA. To what do we attribute this transformation? Growth through experience for the younger guys? The influence of new pitching coach Neil Allen? Plain old good luck? It is almost certainly a combination of those factors and more, but I see no reason to believe that the bottom is going to fall out any time soon. No one other than Mike Pelfrey is pitching out of his mind, and the Twins have enough quality depth to handle injuries or meltdowns. Experts often say that winning games all begins with starting pitching, while that notion hasn't exactly held up over the last week, it usually proves true in the long term. The lineup won't slump like this forever. The bullpen's issues can be addressed (and that began on Wednesday when the club finally swapped out Tim Stauffer for a superior young arm). The Twins might not be quite ready for legitimate contention, but as long as the rotation maintains its steady and rock solid production, I'm confident they'll remain respectable and relevant throughout the rest of the season. View full article
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Lost in the offensive ineptitude of the past two series has been the enduring effectiveness of the starting rotation. While the Twins have lost five of their last six contests, their starting pitchers have combined for a 3.26 ERA during that span, and have completed six or more innings in every game with the exception of J.R. Graham's spot start against Milwaukee. For the season, the Twins rank ninth in the majors and fourth in the American League with a 3.88 ERA from their starters. That is incredible in the context of the past four years: Year | ERA | MLB Rank 2014 | 5.06 | 30th 2013 | 5.26 | 30th 2012 | 5.40 | 29th 2011 | 4.64 | 26th Not only are the Twins experiencing a monumental turnaround in comparison to the last four years, they're actually on track for their best rotation output in nearly a decade. The last time Minnesota ranked ninth or higher in starting pitching ERA was 2006, when they won 96 games behind the outstanding performances of Francisco Liriano, Brad Radke and Cy Young winner Johan Santana. What might be most impressive about this drastic improvement is that the Twins have done it without their big-money free agent signing (who will enter the fold next month), and without their top pitching prospect (who, by many accounts, is big-league ready). They have also done it with 2014's best starter, Phil Hughes, putting up a rotation-worst 4.81 ERA. To what do we attribute this transformation? Growth through experience for the younger guys? The influence of new pitching coach Neil Allen? Plain old good luck? It is almost certainly a combination of those factors and more, but I see no reason to believe that the bottom is going to fall out any time soon. No one other than Mike Pelfrey is pitching out of his mind, and the Twins have enough quality depth to handle injuries or meltdowns. Experts often say that winning games all begins with starting pitching, while that notion hasn't exactly held up over the last week, it usually proves true in the long term. The lineup won't slump like this forever. The bullpen's issues can be addressed (and that began on Wednesday when the club finally swapped out Tim Stauffer for a superior young arm). The Twins might not be quite ready for legitimate contention, but as long as the rotation maintains its steady and rock solid production, I'm confident they'll remain respectable and relevant throughout the rest of the season.
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Official Twins Daily Day 3 Draft Thread
Nick Nelson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Of note: 12th-rounder Alexander (Zander) Wiel homered off Tyler Jay in the Illinois/Vandy game earlier this week. -
Official Twins Daily Day 3 Draft Thread
Nick Nelson replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Picks for the Twins so far today: 11: Kerby Camacho, C, Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy in Puerto Rico 12: Alexander Wiel, 1B, Vanderbilt University 13. Cody Stashak, RHP, St. John's University Camacho is the Twins' second pick out of Beltran Academy, following 7th-round LHP Jovani Moran. Wiel hit cleanup in the Vandy lineup behind No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson. Had 14 HR, 16 doubles and 65 RBI in 66 games this year. -
They say that you should never draft for need with a high first-round pick, and I suspect that the Twins did believe that Tyler Jay was the best player on the board when they selected him sixth overall on Monday night. But when you look at the landscape of this organization, it's tough not to notice that the dominating college lefty fills a significant void, whichever role he ends up falling into. Image courtesy of University of Illinois They say that you should never draft for need with a high first-round pick, and I suspect that the Twins did believe that Tyler Jay was the best player on the board when they selected him sixth overall on Monday night. But when you look at the landscape of this organization, it's tough not to notice that the dominating college lefty fills a significant void, whichever role he ends up falling into. Jay still needs to sign, but once that formality is taken care of, his future role becomes the hot topic. He worked almost exclusively as a reliever during his career at the University of Illinois, and while he was perhaps the most dominant collegiate closer in the nation this year, he has no experience handling a full-time starter's workload. Terry Ryan stated that he plans to keep Jay in a relief role for the remainder of this season, but the team has expressed commitment to giving him a shot as a starter going forward. That makes sense; rarely does a club use a Top 10 draft pick on a pitcher who is designated a reliever right out of the gates, and many (though not all) scouts do believe that Jay could start thanks to his deep pitch repertoire, exceptional command and easy throwing motion. A successful path might mirror that of Tyler Duffey, who currently ranks as one of the organization's most MLB-ready pitching prospects. Duffey was the closer for Rice University before being selected by the Twins in the fifth round of the 2012 draft, and finished out that year as a reliever at Elizabethton after signing, but he moved to full-season ball in 2013 and 18 of his 24 appearances came as a starter. He has been starting exclusively since then and has really taken to it, as he's now in Triple-A with a decent shot at debuting in the majors this summer. Duffey, like nearly every top starter in the Twins' system, is a righty. The only left-handers that ranked among my top eight pitching prospects a few weeks ago were Taylor Rogers, who's known more for polish and command than overpowering stuff, and Stephen Gonsalves, a 20-year-old who is still likely several years away from the majors. As a potentially fast-tracked lefty power arm, Jay would provide something that is currently amiss for the Twins if he can start. But he would also do so by remaining in his familiar relief role, and in that capacity he would be geared for a much faster impact with fewer foreseeable obstacles. While the Twins' bullpen has been surprisingly effective this year, it is lacking quality left-handed options. Brian Duensing has been terrible and is probably in his last year with the club. Aaron Thompson and Caleb Thielbar are nothing special. And while the Twins have numerous high-upside relievers developing in the minors, nearly all them throw from the right side. Jay has a chance to fill that void on the big-league club and he has a chance to do it very quickly. Baseball America suggested that the 21-year-old "could be the first player from the draft class to reach the majors if he stays in a relief role." Consider that Brandon Finnegan, the college reliever selected 17th overall by the Royals last year, was up in the majors pitching key innings in September and October, and most consider Jay a superior talent. The Royals sent Finnegan back to the minors to work on starting this year, but the results so far haven't been great, as his control has been a mess and he has yet to complete even five innings in a start. And while Duffey has been a success story up to this point, he's been the exception. Countless other college relievers that the Twins have drafted with thoughts of being converted to starters have failed to stick. Attempting to move Jay into a starting role means gradually extending out his workload (his 66 innings this year are the most he's thrown in a high school or college season) and acclimating his arm to a very set of different demands. It's certainly not impossible, but it could be a lengthy process and the odds aren't stellar. Conversely, he could be pitching in a big-league bullpen by the end of the year and his chances of excelling in that role seem extremely good. Obviously Jay would offer much more value as a starter if it worked out, but a lefty reliever who can dominate hitters from both sides and pitch multiple innings is a quality asset, and for what it's worth the Twins have built considerable starting pitching depth in the minors, which they have added to with some other picks in this draft. What do you think? Would you try Jay as a starter, or would you rather commit to him as a reliever with the idea of getting him up to the big leagues, for good, as quickly as possible? View full article
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Jay still needs to sign, but once that formality is taken care of, his future role becomes the hot topic. He worked almost exclusively as a reliever during his career at the University of Illinois, and while he was perhaps the most dominant collegiate closer in the nation this year, he has no experience handling a full-time starter's workload. Terry Ryan stated that he plans to keep Jay in a relief role for the remainder of this season, but the team has expressed commitment to giving him a shot as a starter going forward. That makes sense; rarely does a club use a Top 10 draft pick on a pitcher who is designated a reliever right out of the gates, and many (though not all) scouts do believe that Jay could start thanks to his deep pitch repertoire, exceptional command and easy throwing motion. A successful path might mirror that of Tyler Duffey, who currently ranks as one of the organization's most MLB-ready pitching prospects. Duffey was the closer for Rice University before being selected by the Twins in the fifth round of the 2012 draft, and finished out that year as a reliever at Elizabethton after signing, but he moved to full-season ball in 2013 and 18 of his 24 appearances came as a starter. He has been starting exclusively since then and has really taken to it, as he's now in Triple-A with a decent shot at debuting in the majors this summer. Duffey, like nearly every top starter in the Twins' system, is a righty. The only left-handers that ranked among my top eight pitching prospects a few weeks ago were Taylor Rogers, who's known more for polish and command than overpowering stuff, and Stephen Gonsalves, a 20-year-old who is still likely several years away from the majors. As a potentially fast-tracked lefty power arm, Jay would provide something that is currently amiss for the Twins if he can start. But he would also do so by remaining in his familiar relief role, and in that capacity he would be geared for a much faster impact with fewer foreseeable obstacles. While the Twins' bullpen has been surprisingly effective this year, it is lacking quality left-handed options. Brian Duensing has been terrible and is probably in his last year with the club. Aaron Thompson and Caleb Thielbar are nothing special. And while the Twins have numerous high-upside relievers developing in the minors, nearly all them throw from the right side. Jay has a chance to fill that void on the big-league club and he has a chance to do it very quickly. Baseball America suggested that the 21-year-old "could be the first player from the draft class to reach the majors if he stays in a relief role." Consider that Brandon Finnegan, the college reliever selected 17th overall by the Royals last year, was up in the majors pitching key innings in September and October, and most consider Jay a superior talent. The Royals sent Finnegan back to the minors to work on starting this year, but the results so far haven't been great, as his control has been a mess and he has yet to complete even five innings in a start. And while Duffey has been a success story up to this point, he's been the exception. Countless other college relievers that the Twins have drafted with thoughts of being converted to starters have failed to stick. Attempting to move Jay into a starting role means gradually extending out his workload (his 66 innings this year are the most he's thrown in a high school or college season) and acclimating his arm to a very set of different demands. It's certainly not impossible, but it could be a lengthy process and the odds aren't stellar. Conversely, he could be pitching in a big-league bullpen by the end of the year and his chances of excelling in that role seem extremely good. Obviously Jay would offer much more value as a starter if it worked out, but a lefty reliever who can dominate hitters from both sides and pitch multiple innings is a quality asset, and for what it's worth the Twins have built considerable starting pitching depth in the minors, which they have added to with some other picks in this draft. What do you think? Would you try Jay as a starter, or would you rather commit to him as a reliever with the idea of getting him up to the big leagues, for good, as quickly as possible?
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The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals facing off in a high-stakes series for first place in June? Unthinkable a couple of years ago, it's a sign of the changing times in the AL Central, and you've got to love it. The weather forecast for the next three days is spectacular, and our friends at Ticket King have tons of discounted tickets available, so let's dive in and examine the best reasons to get out to Target Field for Twins/Royals. Image courtesy of John Rieger, USA Today The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals facing off in a high-stakes series for first place in June? Unthinkable a couple of years ago, it's a sign of the changing times in the AL Central, and you've got to love it. The weather forecast for the next three days is spectacular, and our friends at Ticket King have tons of discounted tickets available, so let's dive in and examine the best reasons to get out to Target Field for Twins/Royals. Series Overview The Twins have played pretty evenly with the Royals this year, winning three of six contests. It's fun to watch these teams match up because they have fairly similar profiles: productive offenses without a ton of power and solid pitching staffs without a clearly defined ace. The Twins enter the series with a one-game lead in the Central. Running Low Interestingly, while KC's World Series run last year was heavily driven by speed and aggressiveness on the base paths, the Royals have stolen only 30 bases this season, ranking them ninth in the AL. That should make life a little easier for Kurt Suzuki. No Lights Needed? We're coming up on the longest day of the year, and each game in this series starts at 7:10 PM, so it's possible there will still be traces of sunlight as you walk out of the park after the final out. These are the types of evenings that summer outdoor baseball is all about. Kendrys Rebound Monday marks the one-year anniversary of the Twins signing Kendrys Morales, who sat out the first two months in 2014 before finally inking a one-year deal with Minnesota. Morales was terrible – first for the Twins and then for the Mariners – so many were surprised to see him get a two-year, $17 million deal from Kansas City during the offseason. Joke's on us, I guess. The DH has re-emerged in a big way in Kansas City, hitting .294/.356/.468 with six homers and 38 RBI through 53 games. He ranks third in the American League with 17 doubles. Meanwhile, the Twins have gotten lousy production from the DH spot, but they're trying to address that with their own Silent S. Kennys Vargas was recalled on Sunday after hitting .308 in 16 games at Triple-A. He's expected to be in the lineup on Monday night. Pitching Match-Ups Monday, 7:10 PM: Jason Vargas vs. Phil Hughes Hughes has once again been stingy with the walks this year, but he's been far from stingy with hits; he's allowed the most of any pitcher in the AL (86). The Royals lead the league in batting average, so this could be a tough one. Fortunately, Vargas is quite beatable. The southpaw has a 4.79 ERA and the Twins have been significantly better against lefties (730 OPS) than righties (662). Forecast (courtesy Weather.com): Partly cloudy, high of 82 Tuesday, 7:10 PM: Chris Young vs. Trevor May May is coming off his best outing as a big-leaguer – seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Red Sox at Fenway. He has completed at least six frames in each of his last four starts and has walked only one batter total during that span. Hard to believe it's the same guy that couldn't throw a strike to save his life in his MLB debut last August. Young ain't so young anymore, but the sky-scraping 36-year-old has been very effective over 12 appearances for the Royals with a 2.56 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. As an extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn't get many strikeouts, his success has seemed a little fluky, and he may be amidst some regression. He's lost both of his last two starts, allowing 10 runs in 11 innings. Forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 90 Wednesday, 7:10 PM: Edinson Volquez vs. Kyle Gibson Volquez has been Kansas City's best starter, with a 2.95 ERA in 10 starts. He faced the Twins twice in April and performed very well both times, allowing four runs over 14 2/3 innings. He has allowed more than three runs only once in his 10 starts. Gibson is coming off a month of May in which he went 3-1 with a 1.36 ERA, but gave up three homers against the Brewers in his first June start. Forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 83 View full article
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Series Overview The Twins have played pretty evenly with the Royals this year, winning three of six contests. It's fun to watch these teams match up because they have fairly similar profiles: productive offenses without a ton of power and solid pitching staffs without a clearly defined ace. The Twins enter the series with a one-game lead in the Central. Running Low Interestingly, while KC's World Series run last year was heavily driven by speed and aggressiveness on the base paths, the Royals have stolen only 30 bases this season, ranking them ninth in the AL. That should make life a little easier for Kurt Suzuki. No Lights Needed? We're coming up on the longest day of the year, and each game in this series starts at 7:10 PM, so it's possible there will still be traces of sunlight as you walk out of the park after the final out. These are the types of evenings that summer outdoor baseball is all about. Kendrys Rebound Monday marks the one-year anniversary of the Twins signing Kendrys Morales, who sat out the first two months in 2014 before finally inking a one-year deal with Minnesota. Morales was terrible – first for the Twins and then for the Mariners – so many were surprised to see him get a two-year, $17 million deal from Kansas City during the offseason. Joke's on us, I guess. The DH has re-emerged in a big way in Kansas City, hitting .294/.356/.468 with six homers and 38 RBI through 53 games. He ranks third in the American League with 17 doubles. Meanwhile, the Twins have gotten lousy production from the DH spot, but they're trying to address that with their own Silent S. Kennys Vargas was recalled on Sunday after hitting .308 in 16 games at Triple-A. He's expected to be in the lineup on Monday night. Pitching Match-Ups Monday, 7:10 PM: Jason Vargas vs. Phil Hughes Hughes has once again been stingy with the walks this year, but he's been far from stingy with hits; he's allowed the most of any pitcher in the AL (86). The Royals lead the league in batting average, so this could be a tough one. Fortunately, Vargas is quite beatable. The southpaw has a 4.79 ERA and the Twins have been significantly better against lefties (730 OPS) than righties (662). Forecast (courtesy Weather.com): Partly cloudy, high of 82 Tuesday, 7:10 PM: Chris Young vs. Trevor May May is coming off his best outing as a big-leaguer – seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Red Sox at Fenway. He has completed at least six frames in each of his last four starts and has walked only one batter total during that span. Hard to believe it's the same guy that couldn't throw a strike to save his life in his MLB debut last August. Young ain't so young anymore, but the sky-scraping 36-year-old has been very effective over 12 appearances for the Royals with a 2.56 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. As an extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn't get many strikeouts, his success has seemed a little fluky, and he may be amidst some regression. He's lost both of his last two starts, allowing 10 runs in 11 innings. Forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 90 Wednesday, 7:10 PM: Edinson Volquez vs. Kyle Gibson Volquez has been Kansas City's best starter, with a 2.95 ERA in 10 starts. He faced the Twins twice in April and performed very well both times, allowing four runs over 14 2/3 innings. He has allowed more than three runs only once in his 10 starts. Gibson is coming off a month of May in which he went 3-1 with a 1.36 ERA, but gave up three homers against the Brewers in his first June start. Forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 83
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When Will Molitor Start Making Adjustments?
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Vargas was slugging .561 in May before being sent down. That's 30 points lower than Escobar's OPS this year. -
Paul Molitor's managerial career has gotten off to such a charmed start that it's been tough to criticize him. Nearly every move that the skipper has made -- even those that appeared highly questionable at the time -- has worked out, and that's reflected in a tremendously surprising 32-21 record through roughly one-third of the schedule. The offense has shown signs of beginning to scuffle, however, and so his handling of lineups and personnel becomes more open to scrutiny. Image courtesy of Marilyn Indahl, USA Today Paul Molitor's managerial career has gotten off to such a charmed start that it's been tough to criticize him. Nearly every move that the skipper has made -- even those that appeared highly questionable at the time -- has worked out, and that's reflected in a tremendously surprising 32-21 record through roughly one-third of the schedule. The offense has shown signs of beginning to scuffle, however, and so his handling of lineups and personnel becomes more open to scrutiny. Everyday Eddie The most puzzling and irksome trait of Molitor's first couple months on the job has been an inexplicable commitment to getting Eduardo Escobar into the lineup as often as possible. It'd be one thing if that meant starting him at shortstop, where offensive expectations are lowered and Danny Santana has been horrible, but only seven of Escobar's starts have come there. Instead, Molitor has constantly plugged Escobar in at offense-driven positions; namely left field (20 times) and designated hitter (six times). His performance at the plate has been rather miserable: .228/.250/.345 with 38 strikeouts and three walks in 153 plate appearances. That kind of production could only be viewed as adequate from a utility man who plays sparingly, and that's the role Escobar should be filling. Yet Molitor evidently has a perception of the 26-year-old as a quality hitter. Whether that stems from Escobar's career year in 2014 or his nice spring, I don't know, but at some point the rookie skipper needs to come to terms with what has been obvious throughout the majority of Escobar's career and certainly over these first two months: he has a weak bat. Gad Zukes Depending on who you're talking to, viewpoints on proper lineup construction can vary, but almost everyone would agree that the fifth spot in the lineup ought to be reserved for a power bat. Place quality hitters in the top four spots and follow up with a slugger that can drive them in. Kennys Vargas, who opened the season as Minnesota's No. 5 hitter, was just that. Kurt Suzuki, who has filled that spot 15 times since the start of May, is quite the opposite. Early in his career, Suzuki did show a little pop, reaching double digits in homers each year from 2009 through 2011. Since then, though, he has totaled 16 homers in 384 games with a .347 slugging percentage. This year, it's at .324. Obviously there aren't a lot of great alternative options at this point, but Suzuki belongs nowhere near the middle of the lineup on a competing team. The Wrong Guys So, about those alternative options... It's true that Molitor doesn't have a whole lot to work with when trying to assemble lineups at this point, but the club's personnel decisions have handcuffed him to some degree, and while he's not the one directly making those calls, there's no doubt he has plenty of influence. Vargas, who could easily be filling that fifth spot instead of Suzuki and that DH role instead of Escobar and Eduardo Nunez, was sent down in mid-May even though he was hitting .366 on the month, and he's been left in Triple-A even though he's hitting .349 with a 1045 OPS there since being demoted. Apparently the Twins want Vargas to work on his pitch recognition, and that would be all well and good under past circumstances, but this team is actually in a race. He's blatantly a better hitter than most guys on the major league roster. Between the Vargas situation, leaving Aaron Hicks in the minors for six weeks, keeping Josmil Pinto buried, and now sending Oswaldo Arcia to Triple-A off the DL (though that move is more defensible), there's an ongoing trend of eschewing plainly more capable youngsters for veteran mediocrity. I've gotta say, I didn't expect that from Molitor, a guy who's spent the last decade working with Twins minor leaguers. The Elephant in the Room It's an uncomfortable subject to broach, especially for someone who has spent many years defending the guy against unfair critiques, but... at what point does Joe Mauer slide down in the lineup? Blasting Mauer for his lack of power was rather ludicrous when he was winning batting titles and getting on base 40 percent of the time -- particularly when he was doing so at catcher -- but these days Mauer is simply a bad hitter. His power has gone from limited to essentially non-existent. Only nine qualified major leaguers have fewer home runs than Mauer's five since the start of last year, and they all play much more valuable defensive positions. Mauer ranks 21st out of 22 MLB first basemen in OPS. He never homers and is barely a threat to hit a double. His once elite plate discipline no longer stands out. His production with runners in scoring position is the only thing that has kept him from being a complete liability to the lineup, but it's hard to imagine that disparity sustaining. Removing Mauer from his customary station in the three-hole might be the hardest and most uncomfortable adjustment that Molitor needs to make, but it will be necessitated if things continue as they are. View full article
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Everyday Eddie The most puzzling and irksome trait of Molitor's first couple months on the job has been an inexplicable commitment to getting Eduardo Escobar into the lineup as often as possible. It'd be one thing if that meant starting him at shortstop, where offensive expectations are lowered and Danny Santana has been horrible, but only seven of Escobar's starts have come there. Instead, Molitor has constantly plugged Escobar in at offense-driven positions; namely left field (20 times) and designated hitter (six times). His performance at the plate has been rather miserable: .228/.250/.345 with 38 strikeouts and three walks in 153 plate appearances. That kind of production could only be viewed as adequate from a utility man who plays sparingly, and that's the role Escobar should be filling. Yet Molitor evidently has a perception of the 26-year-old as a quality hitter. Whether that stems from Escobar's career year in 2014 or his nice spring, I don't know, but at some point the rookie skipper needs to come to terms with what has been obvious throughout the majority of Escobar's career and certainly over these first two months: he has a weak bat. Gad Zukes Depending on who you're talking to, viewpoints on proper lineup construction can vary, but almost everyone would agree that the fifth spot in the lineup ought to be reserved for a power bat. Place quality hitters in the top four spots and follow up with a slugger that can drive them in. Kennys Vargas, who opened the season as Minnesota's No. 5 hitter, was just that. Kurt Suzuki, who has filled that spot 15 times since the start of May, is quite the opposite. Early in his career, Suzuki did show a little pop, reaching double digits in homers each year from 2009 through 2011. Since then, though, he has totaled 16 homers in 384 games with a .347 slugging percentage. This year, it's at .324. Obviously there aren't a lot of great alternative options at this point, but Suzuki belongs nowhere near the middle of the lineup on a competing team. The Wrong Guys So, about those alternative options... It's true that Molitor doesn't have a whole lot to work with when trying to assemble lineups at this point, but the club's personnel decisions have handcuffed him to some degree, and while he's not the one directly making those calls, there's no doubt he has plenty of influence. Vargas, who could easily be filling that fifth spot instead of Suzuki and that DH role instead of Escobar and Eduardo Nunez, was sent down in mid-May even though he was hitting .366 on the month, and he's been left in Triple-A even though he's hitting .349 with a 1045 OPS there since being demoted. Apparently the Twins want Vargas to work on his pitch recognition, and that would be all well and good under past circumstances, but this team is actually in a race. He's blatantly a better hitter than most guys on the major league roster. Between the Vargas situation, leaving Aaron Hicks in the minors for six weeks, keeping Josmil Pinto buried, and now sending Oswaldo Arcia to Triple-A off the DL (though that move is more defensible), there's an ongoing trend of eschewing plainly more capable youngsters for veteran mediocrity. I've gotta say, I didn't expect that from Molitor, a guy who's spent the last decade working with Twins minor leaguers. The Elephant in the Room It's an uncomfortable subject to broach, especially for someone who has spent many years defending the guy against unfair critiques, but... at what point does Joe Mauer slide down in the lineup? Blasting Mauer for his lack of power was rather ludicrous when he was winning batting titles and getting on base 40 percent of the time -- particularly when he was doing so at catcher -- but these days Mauer is simply a bad hitter. His power has gone from limited to essentially non-existent. Only nine qualified major leaguers have fewer home runs than Mauer's five since the start of last year, and they all play much more valuable defensive positions. Mauer ranks 21st out of 22 MLB first basemen in OPS. He never homers and is barely a threat to hit a double. His once elite plate discipline no longer stands out. His production with runners in scoring position is the only thing that has kept him from being a complete liability to the lineup, but it's hard to imagine that disparity sustaining. Removing Mauer from his customary station in the three-hole might be the hardest and most uncomfortable adjustment that Molitor needs to make, but it will be necessitated if things continue as they are.
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His fastball just isn't getting it done. He's spotting it but it's too hittable. Lowest avg velocity since he was a rookie in '07. I wouldn't say he stinks but he's nothing special. The regression is not entirely surprising based on the guy's track record. Just another reminder that it's dumb to give a guy a huge extension off a career year... something the Twins just keep on consistently doing for whatever reason.
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There are three shortstops drawing tremendous buzz leading up to this year's MLB draft, and all three are likely to be taken within the top ten picks. Vanderbilt's Dansby Swanson is widely viewed as the favorite for No. 1. High schooler Brendan Rodgers and Louisiana State's Alex Bregman could potentially be taken with the following two picks (Baseball America's latest mock has all three going in the top four), but either could also fall to the Twins at No. 6. Today, we'll take an in-depth look at Bregman, who some believe to be the best all-around talent in this class. Image courtesy of Crystal LoGiudice, USA TOday There are three shortstops drawing tremendous buzz leading up to this year's MLB draft, and all three are likely to be taken within the top ten picks. Vanderbilt's Dansby Swanson is widely viewed as the favorite for No. 1. High schooler Brendan Rodgers and Louisiana State's Alex Bregman could potentially be taken with the following two picks (Baseball America's latest mock has all three going in the top four), but either could also fall to the Twins at No. 6. Today, we'll take an in-depth look at Bregman, who some believe to be the best all-around talent in this class. Who Is This Guy? Generously listed at 6'0" and 185 lbs, Bregman is a diminutive specimen who often draws comparisons to Dustin Pedroia as an undersized middle infielder who overcomes his physical disadvantages with tremendous work ethic and technique. The New Mexico native was viewed as a likely first-round pick coming out of high school, but he broke a finger while fielding grounders in pregame warm-ups during his senior year, and the injury caused his stock to plummet. Bregman ended up being drafted by the Red Sox in the 29th round of the 2012 draft, but elected to head to college rather than signing. Good call. Three years later, he's a projected top five draft pick. Bregman has put up monster numbers in his three seasons at LSU, hitting .336/.410/.518 in 191 games. He has solid pop for a guy his size, but what really stands out is his ability to control the strike zone; in his collegiate career, he has drawn 87 walks while fanning only 66 times. The biggest question is whether Bregman will stick at shortstop in the pros. Most scouts seem to believe he has a good chance to do so. Back in April, Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs highlighted four different stand-out plays that the shortstop made in one game against Auburn. This one, in particular, seems to demonstrate that he has the athleticism and arm to play the position. Why the Twins Will Pick Him Shortstop is a tough spot to lock down, as the Twins are well aware. They've struggled to find a permanent answer, and while they probably felt decent about the position coming into 2015, neither Danny Santana nor Eduardo Escobar has done much this year to inspire confidence. If you have the chance to get a guy who you think can play shortstop in the majors and hit, you've got to get him. That's why the Twins selected Nick Gordon last year, and that's why they will likely take Bregman if he's available to them. Outside of pitcher and catcher, there's no position where it's more beneficial to have strong minor-league depth. Bregman has that gritty, "baseball rat" type reputation that the Twins tend to gravitate toward, and his production in college has been everything you'd want to see in a top pick. He was actually named first-team All-SEC shortstop over Vanderbilt's Swanson, who is likely to go first overall. The Twins just spent the fifth pick on a shortstop last year, but I doubt that would impede them from taking another one this time around. Gordon is currently hitting just .230/.303/.279 at Cedar Rapids, and while that hardly dooms the 19-year-old's long-term outlook, it does indicate that he might need a while to develop. Bregman's bat is more advanced and he would move ahead of Gordon in line with a chance to make a faster impact in the majors. Consider that Trea Turner, the first college shortstop taken in last year's draft (14th overall to the Padres) is already tearing up Double-A. Why the Twins Won't Pick Him Bregman is not without his question marks. Some believe he might follow in Pedroia's footsteps and wind up moving to second base, which would diminish his value to the Twins quite a bit. There's also no assurance that his bat will make the same kind of impact in pro ball, particularly in the power department. While clearly a superior prospect, Bregman does have a somewhat similar profile to Levi Michael, the smallish college middle infielder drafted by the Twins out of North Carolina in 2011's first-round. Michael's moderate power all but disappeared once he made the switch to wood bats. With all that being said, if he does fall to them at No. 6, I find it quite unlikely that the Twins would pass up Bregman unless they don't believe in his glove. I've seen very few recent mocks that have him falling out of the top five. Jeremy has him going to Houston one pick before Minnesota. View full article
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Who Is This Guy? Generously listed at 6'0" and 185 lbs, Bregman is a diminutive specimen who often draws comparisons to Dustin Pedroia as an undersized middle infielder who overcomes his physical disadvantages with tremendous work ethic and technique. The New Mexico native was viewed as a likely first-round pick coming out of high school, but he broke a finger while fielding grounders in pregame warm-ups during his senior year, and the injury caused his stock to plummet. Bregman ended up being drafted by the Red Sox in the 29th round of the 2012 draft, but elected to head to college rather than signing. Good call. Three years later, he's a projected top five draft pick. Bregman has put up monster numbers in his three seasons at LSU, hitting .336/.410/.518 in 191 games. He has solid pop for a guy his size, but what really stands out is his ability to control the strike zone; in his collegiate career, he has drawn 87 walks while fanning only 66 times. The biggest question is whether Bregman will stick at shortstop in the pros. Most scouts seem to believe he has a good chance to do so. Back in April, Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs highlighted four different stand-out plays that the shortstop made in one game against Auburn. This one, in particular, seems to demonstrate that he has the athleticism and arm to play the position. Why the Twins Will Pick Him Shortstop is a tough spot to lock down, as the Twins are well aware. They've struggled to find a permanent answer, and while they probably felt decent about the position coming into 2015, neither Danny Santana nor Eduardo Escobar has done much this year to inspire confidence. If you have the chance to get a guy who you think can play shortstop in the majors and hit, you've got to get him. That's why the Twins selected Nick Gordon last year, and that's why they will likely take Bregman if he's available to them. Outside of pitcher and catcher, there's no position where it's more beneficial to have strong minor-league depth. Bregman has that gritty, "baseball rat" type reputation that the Twins tend to gravitate toward, and his production in college has been everything you'd want to see in a top pick. He was actually named first-team All-SEC shortstop over Vanderbilt's Swanson, who is likely to go first overall. The Twins just spent the fifth pick on a shortstop last year, but I doubt that would impede them from taking another one this time around. Gordon is currently hitting just .230/.303/.279 at Cedar Rapids, and while that hardly dooms the 19-year-old's long-term outlook, it does indicate that he might need a while to develop. Bregman's bat is more advanced and he would move ahead of Gordon in line with a chance to make a faster impact in the majors. Consider that Trea Turner, the first college shortstop taken in last year's draft (14th overall to the Padres) is already tearing up Double-A. Why the Twins Won't Pick Him Bregman is not without his question marks. Some believe he might follow in Pedroia's footsteps and wind up moving to second base, which would diminish his value to the Twins quite a bit. There's also no assurance that his bat will make the same kind of impact in pro ball, particularly in the power department. While clearly a superior prospect, Bregman does have a somewhat similar profile to Levi Michael, the smallish college middle infielder drafted by the Twins out of North Carolina in 2011's first-round. Michael's moderate power all but disappeared once he made the switch to wood bats. With all that being said, if he does fall to them at No. 6, I find it quite unlikely that the Twins would pass up Bregman unless they don't believe in his glove. I've seen very few recent mocks that have him falling out of the top five. Jeremy has him going to Houston one pick before Minnesota.
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On Unsustainable Success And Traps
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I love this comment. Really encapsulates why it's so much fun to be a Twins fan right now. -
A victory over Toronto on Sunday that capped off a 20-win month and left the Twins with the best record in the American League suddenly catapulted them into the national consciousness, with Minnesota gracing the front page of ESPN.com's MLB section on Monday morning and appearing across all sorts of major media outlets. Still, there is a well warranted sense of skepticism surrounding this team. Smoke and mirrors wouldn't necessarily be accurate – the Twins are pitching well and scoring runs – but their winning ways have been characterized by clutch hitting and unprecedented pitching performances. Neither seems likely to completely sustain. As such, most people believe that this club, as currently constituted, is due for some serious regression. That's probably true. But it also misses the bigger picture. Image courtesy of Tommy GIlligan, USA Today A victory over Toronto on Sunday that capped off a 20-win month and left the Twins with the best record in the American League suddenly catapulted them into the national consciousness, with Minnesota gracing the front page of ESPN.com's MLB section on Monday morning and appearing across all sorts of major media outlets. Still, there is a well warranted sense of skepticism surrounding this team. Smoke and mirrors wouldn't necessarily be accurate – the Twins are pitching well and scoring runs – but their winning ways have been characterized by clutch hitting and unprecedented pitching performances. Neither seems likely to completely sustain. As such, most people believe that this club, as currently constituted, is due for some serious regression. That's probably true. But it also misses the bigger picture. Last week, Grantland published a feature with a headline that asked "Are the Twins for real?" The conclusion was, basically, no. On Monday, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs served a similar note of caution and warned against the front office falling into the trap of believing in a hot start and mistakenly going into "Buy" mode, loading up for a 2015 run at the expense of building for the future. These viewpoints are not inaccurate, in the sense that a team whose success is built so acutely around rising to the occasion in high-leverage situations is going to come back to Earth when things inevitably even out. But this is a transitional roster that stands to see a lot of change between now and September, which is both why we should lend a bit more credibility to their chances of hanging around, and why the notion of any sort of significant "Buy" moves at the trade deadline is silly. Back at the beginning of May, I observed that things were going according to plan for the Twins; they were a game above .500 and their weaknesses lined up with areas of strength in the minor-league system. Now, they're 10 games above .500 and the latter point remains true. This organization has a great deal of depth in the high minors, with many potential reinforcements waiting in the wings. Even if they did decide they wanted to buy and go all in for 2015 (which ain't exactly Terry Ryan's MO), what position would they target? They're not going to look for starting pitching with numerous options available in the minors and Ervin Santana due back in a month. They're not going to make a mega-deal for a shortstop with Eduardo Escobar on hand and Jorge Polanco tearing up Double-A. They're not going to trade valuable assets for a DH when they can try out Josmil Pinto or Oswaldo Arcia or Kennys Vargas there. This isn't to say that the Twins will have no problem plugging any leak that springs up. But they have already have the tools to try and fix them without needing to pony up at the hardware store. And it goes without saying that they benefit more, long-term, from giving their homegrown players a chance to contribute and make a difference rather than dealing away future assets for a rental. Terry Ryan, of all people, is aware of that. So sit back and enjoy the ride as long as it lasts. There's really no need to worry that the Twins' sudden and unexpected success is going to cause them to do anything that hinders their big-picture plans. But if we're lucky, we might get to see some talented young players make an impact on a pennant race. View full article

