Nick Nelson

"Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he is never disappointed." – Alexander Pope Have you ever gone to see a movie that was hugely hyped, only to walk out of the theater underwhelmed after deeming it just OK? Conversely, another film that was “just OK” might have impressed you if your friends had all told you it was completely awful. Expectations can have an enormous impact on the way we perceive things. Which brings us to this year’s Minnesota Twins.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Reality has finally set in for a fan base that was subjected to almost 200 losses over the past two years. Terry Ryan created no illusions of short-term promise with an offseason plan that was clearly not geared toward rapid improvement. What droplets of optimism existed last year around this time – that perhaps 2011 was a fluke, and that with better health the Twins would rebound toward the top of the division – have mostly evaporated. Download attachment: openingday2013.jpg Obviously the lack of hope for this season has led to a dearth of excitement surrounding the product. The lacking buzz was noticeable on Opening Day at Target Field, where patches of empty seats spoke to more than just the chilly weather. I’d describe the current mood of the fan base at large as ambivalent, which is at least a step up from angry. Most who are paying attention can see a clear direction and long-term plan – more than could have been said the last couple years – but acknowledge that the odds of even staying remotely competitive this year are long. If the Twins dig another early hole, the reaction is more likely to be shoulder shrugs than outrage. Simply put: there’s not much room for disappointment with this team. How much worse can it really get? But there’s plenty of room for unexpected outcomes on the other side, and this is where the lowered standards play to the organization’s benefit. Any sort of modest early winning streak will be met with intrigue. If the team comes together after a slow start and begins stringing together some victories in June and July, it will be easy to form (possibly accurate) narratives about a young group beginning to jell. The fact that local ball fans aren’t necessarily too amped up about the current product doesn’t mean they’re not itching for a reason to change that outlook. And therein lies an opportunity for Ron Gardenhire and Co. It won't take a stellar team to reverse the trend of falling attendance. It will simply take a watchable team. If the Twins up being “just OK” this year, most of us are going to be quite pleased. The team should embrace that dynamic, because this will (hopefully) be the last time in a long while that expectations are so low. Perhaps the lessened pressure will prove to be just what this relatively inexperienced group needs. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: morneauwillingham.jpg T.S. Eliot once famously wrote that April is the cruelest month, and for the Twins that adage has held true over the past two years. Between 2011 and 2012, the team went 15-33 during the season's first month while watching devastating injuries pile up – from Tsuyoshi Nishioka's broken leg and Joe Mauer's bilateral leg weakness to Scott Baker's unscheduled Tommy John surgery. Against that backdrop, the first four weeks of this 2013 campaign have been blissful, even if the club's performance has been more solid than great and the game-viewing conditions have been mostly horrible.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] With nearly a full month in the books, the Twins are above .500 and everybody's intact. And the temperatures are back in the 70s. Life is great. But like the temperature, which is expected to return to depressingly frigid levels in a few days, the Twins' run of good fortune won't last forever. In fact, a harsh dose of reality may be in the offing as they head to Detroit to take on the three-headed monster named Scherzer-Verlander-Sanchez. That tough series opens a 10-game road trip that should prove telling. Can the Twins continue to add to the win column while plagued with so many problem areas? The lineup has sputtered too often, ranking 10th in the AL in runs per game and 13th in OPS. The defense has been shaky, with inexperience manifesting in head-scratching miscues. The starting rotation, while on the surface seeming to be a vast improvement over last season, still presents major concerns, especially when you factor in the inevitable return to Earth for ace-of-the-moment Kevin Correia. Yet none of that seems too pronounced. The baseball season is a long one, full of ebbs and flows, and right now the Twins are in a positive place, fresh off their most impressive accomplishment thus far. A stacked Rangers team brought a 14-7 record into a town and tipped off a four-game series with two straight one-run victories. Surprisingly, the Twins recovered from that gut punch and bounced back to split the series with a pair of convincing wins, outscoring the Rangers 12-2. It marked the first time this year Texas has suffered consecutive losses. For Minnesota, this was a statement series, and Correia's gem in the finale was a statement game. The Twins are charging ahead with their trademark formula: throw strikes, let 'em hit it, manufacture enough runs to come out on top. Their pitchers sport the league's lowest K/9 average (6.1) but also the league's lowest BB/9 (2.4). Right now, it's working well enough for them, in large part because their pitchers aren't giving up any homers. They've surrendered only 11 long balls, tied for fewest in the majors-- unsustainable for such a contact-heavy staff even if it is laden with sinker-ballers. While that formula seems unlikely to hold up in the long run, an important thing might be that it's gotten them by until now. As I've frequently mentioned, this is a team that stands to get better as the season progresses, and we're seeing that dynamic unfold before our eyes. Aaron Hicks is gradually figuring things out, Oswaldo Arcia is showing promising early flashes, Kyle Gibson appears to be closing in on a promotion and Alex Meyer is tearing up Double-A. Entering the season, my thinking was that these early weeks would be the hardest on the Twins, as green rookies went through the usual growing pains and the reassembled rotation took its obligatory lumps. The club has weathered all that, and is still in position to wrap up the month with more victories than losses with a win Monday or Tuesday in Mo-town. No one should be hoodwinked into thinking that the Twins are suddenly a surprise playoff contender because they've played well over their first 21 games, but staying afloat in this first month has been crucial. Recent brutal starts have put a hurt on the team's ticket sales and this year would have been especially toxic when combined with the nasty weather this month. Reversing the trend was a high priority. Will this help set up the Twins to carry out their stated goal of remaining relevant into the final month of the season? Still a cloudy proposition, but with confidence building and impact help potentially on the way, it's hardly outlandish. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: gardenhire.jpg In many ways, Ron Gardenhire’s present situation reflects the paradox faced by the 2013 Minnesota Twins. After two straight 90-loss campaigns, the long-tenured manager has been put on notice. He enters this season without a contract extension in place.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Several of his assistants have been reassigned or released, and it’s been made clear that his performance will be under stringent evaluation. If we don’t see tangible improvement over the last two miserable years, it’s a good bet that Gardy will be shown the door. It's no secret that the manager is loved and revered by the organization, so they’re not eager to see that happen. They’re also not eager to field a third straight cellar-dweller that struggles to draw fans in the latter part of the season. They’ve been vocal about these things. But actions speak louder than words, and the organization’s actions during the offseason hardly conveyed urgency to impel a sizable step forward in the short term. One year after shedding about $15 million from their payroll, the Twins cut roughly the same amount this winter, passing on the opportunity to meaningfully bolster their beleaguered starting corps and opting instead for cheap, unreliable targets like Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. Terry Ryan traded two established, valuable starting outfielders for young pitchers who largely won’t help until further down the line. No moves were made to address weaknesses in the infield or on the bench. ~~~ This is a story from a free ebook that TwinsDaily is making available on Opening Day that previews the Minnesota Twins 2013 season. To get your free copy, just make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter or Like our Facebook page. ~~~ Without question, the Twins are in excellent position to return to contention down the line. Their farm system is as strong as it’s been in many years, and the benefit to their frugal approach is that they have almost no contractual obligations beyond this year. That flexibility will allow them to extend successful players as needed and sign free agents to fill holes at the appropriate time, with blockbuster type deals potentially on the table. Of course, none of that does much good for Gardenhire, who probably won’t be here to help usher in the next wave if this thing doesn't get turned around quickly. For him, the “appropriate time” is now (many impatient fans probably feel the same way), and the pressure to get things on track is immense. While I’m willing to believe that his managerial performance won’t be judged solely on wins and losses, another 90-loss season – especially if it includes a familiarly horrendous start – would almost have to spell the end. Luckily Gardenhire, much like his team, is in good position to take people by surprise. Although the Twins will enter the season with as bad a rotation as you’ll find in the league, there are a number of intriguing reinforcements in the wings, such as Scott Diamond, Samuel Deduno, Kyle Gibson and Rich Harden. Even newly acquired prospects Alex Meyer and Trevor May are long shot contenders to make a late-season impact. Whereas the issues for last year’s unit snowballed as injuries and ineptitude piled up, this year the rotation could improve considerably over the course of the campaign. If the Twins can somehow manage to get respectable production from their crop of starting pitchers – admittedly a bit of a stretch, all things considered – they can certainly be a competitive ballclub, albeit not a championship contender. The lineup has a chance to be as good as any in the division, with a pair of (finally) healthy former MVPs anchoring a group that offers plenty of upside. It’s not difficult to envision the Twins being above average offensively at six or seven positions, depending on your level of optimism regarding Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks. I can’t help but feel like the Twins’ run-scoring potential this year has been widely undersold, even by a general manager who apparently didn’t see fit to provide much help during the offseason. If Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have the kind of years they’ve shown capable of when not burdened by health issues, while key young cogs like Parmelee and Trevor Plouffe take the next step, the thought of watching those efforts go to waste at the hands of an ill-equipped pitching staff is painful… probably more so for Gardenhire than anybody. In many ways, this is the perfect season to evaluate the manager. He’s got a moderately talented roster with low expectations. It will take every bit of his savvy to steer away from the wreckage of the past two seasons – both on and off the field – and keep this club relevant into the later months. Ultimately, that’s the goal for this Twins team, and while it’s not all that ambitious, I’d see it as a satisfactory outcome in what has plainly been established as a bridge year. The Twins may not be aiming for the World Series, but they need to show progress. They owe that much to fans who have been subjected to the horrors of these last two years. If it doesn’t happen, the responsibility will fall on Gardenhire’s shoulders, whether it’s his fault or not. On the flip side, he’s sure to get the lion’s share of credit if we see significant improvement and a record approaching .500, which in my mind is well within the realm of possibility. I tend to think a manager’s impact in baseball is generally exaggerated, but in this situation, with this collection of arms and this overall level of inexperience, Gardy may have to work harder than ever before. Or, as he would put it, battle his tail off. Because now his tail's on the line. ~~~ Celebrate Opening Day with your free @TwinsDaily Minnesota Twins 2013 Season Preview Ebook. Just add us to your Twitter feed by following us, or tell us you like us (we're pathetic like that). You'll find a download link on both channels on Monday. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Scott Feldman.jpg With as many as four spots needing to be filled in the rotation, it figured that Terry Ryan – with his traditionally risk-averse nature in free agency – would target low-cost pitchers with upside who could be acquired on one-year deals. This strategy makes sense for a couple reasons: it adds multiple options to the starting pitching mix without requiring huge commitments, and hurlers looking for the one-year make-good deal ought be more apt to sign with a club that offers such wide-open opportunity in the rotation. If that was indeed Ryan's intended tack, he can't be pleased to see the Cubs aggressively following the same course. Already, Chicago has snatched up two of the most intriguing pitchers in this category. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] A few weeks ago, it was Scott Baker. And yesterday, the Cubs announced that they had inked Scott Feldman to a one-year deal. Much like Baker, Feldman is a pitcher with stretches of past success who is coming off a down year and looking to recoup some value. And much like Baker, Feldman hauled in more guaranteed cash than expected at $6 million. Yes, six million bucks for a guy who posted a 5.09 ERA last year, owns a 4.81 career mark, and has only once thrown more than 151 innings in a major-league season. Feldman offers some appeal as a guy who can operate in a swingman role and generally posts pretty decent peripherals, but he's nothing close to a reliable bet. His ERA has been above five in four of the past six seasons. The total seems somewhat extreme, at least from the perspective of an organization with less money to throw around than the Cubs, but perhaps only by the preset standards we entered this offseason with. As early names have come off the board, the numbers have ranged from eyebrow-raising to jaw-dropping. Purported reclamation projects are commanding as much as established mid-tier guys have in the past. We're to the point where Feldman's deal is actually being lauded by some as a value signing. If the trend continues, the Twins' money isn't going to go very far in free agency even if they hold steady with their budget, which is hardly assured. The inflated prices on the open market will also surely have an auxiliary effect on the trade market, where clubs with cost-controlled pitching can now increase their demands. At one point I thought a player like James Shields might come at a relative discount given that he's owed $21 million over the next two years, but now his contract is starting to look like a real bargain that many general managers could be competing to acquire. This environment leaves a team with finite funds and few palatable internal pitching options in an extremely tough spot. Even if Ryan has the green-light to spend, it's not clear that he should be splurging on the kind of deals that may be required to lock up adequate starters unless ownership is willing to commit to long-term payroll increases that will enable him to continue to build around large contracts for aging players. Yet, if Ryan shies away from the market, he's most likely submitting to at least another year of lousy on-field performance and the inevitable revenue drains that will come along with it. Additionally, he'd be doubling down on the ability of his own personnel to identify and develop young pitching talent for a rebuild, something they simply haven't done in recent years. The Cubs' signings of Baker and Feldman are bad news for the Twins, and not necessarily because Minnesota should have signed those players. The financial terms are highly troubling and indicative that there's going to be no such thing as a low-risk signing on the pitching market this winter. That will leave Ryan and Co. with almost no room for error. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: glen-perkins.jpg Perhaps no group on the Twins suffered more as a result of the starting staff’s struggles last year than the bullpen. Success stories were overlooked, dominant relief outings were often wasted in losses and the unit as a whole was generally taxed and overworked. That’s too bad, because the significant strides made in this department sort of got lost in the shuffle.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] One year after ranking last in the American League in bullpen ERA (4.51) and WHIP (1.46), the Twins moved to the middle of the pack in both categories with marks of the 3.77 and 1.26. Granted, “middle of the pack” isn’t anything to brag about, but it’s still a substantial improvement over the wreckage of 2011. And those overall numbers were dinged heavily by 52 terrible innings from Jeff Gray, who was inexplicably kept around for most of the season. When you look at the core relievers who are returning to this year’s mix, the performances were almost uniformly stellar. Let’s take a look at the seven arms that will be at Ron Gardenhire’s disposal when things get underway on Monday… Closer: Glen Perkins, LHP 2012 Stats: 70.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 16 SV, 78/16 K/BB, 1.04 WHIP Perkins was one of the few bright spots in that dreadful 2011 bullpen, putting a forgettable career as a starter behind him to emerge as one of the league’s most dominant relievers. Last year he put to rest any notion that his breakout campaign was a fluke, backing up it up with an equally splendid effort and taking firm hold of the closer role by year’s end. Complementing a mid-90s fastball with a lethal slider that baffles righties as well as lefties, Perkins has proven that he’s got everything it takes to slam the door in the major leagues. Setup Man: Jared Burton, RHP 2012 Stats: 62 IP, 2.18 ERA, 5 SV, 55/16 K/BB, 0.92 WHIP Plucking relief arms from other organizations on minor-league deals has been a common practice for the Twins, and it’s one that typically hasn’t worked out too well lately (see: Jeff Gray, Matt Maloney, Dusty Hughes, Eric Hacker, etc.). While Burton technically falls into the same category, it was clear when the Twins signed him that he was from a different mold. Unlike many of the marginal arms brought in through this avenue, Burton’s question marks were health-based rather than talent-based. He had previously been a stand-out reliever for the Reds, but lingering shoulder issues had finally pushed him out of the picture in Cincy. The Twins smartly took a flier and it worked out brilliantly, as Burton regained his health and unleashed his splitter/changeup hybrid (aka the “splange”) on unsuspecting AL hitters to devastating effect. Burton’s numbers in Year One with the Twins were better than any he’d posted in the past, and seemed too good to be true. In fact, they probably were. He’s almost certain to regress this year, to some extent, so we’ll just have to hope that he stays healthy and the fall isn’t too hard. Lefty Specialist: Brian Duensing, LHP 2012 Stats: 109 IP, 5.12 ERA, 69/27 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP The stats listed above for Duensing are a bit misleading, because they’re heavily weighted by his ugly stint as a starter. Hopefully that won’t again be a factor for the southpaw, who has settled comfortably into a role as a situational weapon in the bullpen. To that end, he’s been fantastic. Even last year, when his overall numbers were bloated, Duensing posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP as a reliever. He’s been pulled out of his appropriate role too often in the past couple years, but when used properly he's among the best in the league at what he does. Valuable asset. Middle Reliever: Casey Fien, RHP 2012 Stats: 35 IP, 2.06 ERA, 32/9 K/BB, 0.97 WHIP Even more so than Burton, Fien’s tremendous results in his first year with the Twins don’t exactly seem sustainable. His lights-out performance over 35 appearances was not necessarily a total fluke, as he’s been a solid reliever in the minors for many years, but Fien was a 28-year-old who had previously totaled 14 innings in the majors. The Twins will likely be leaning on him as their No. 2 right-handed reliever, at least out of the gates, so heavy regression would hurt in a major way. Middle Reliever: Ryan Pressly, RHP 2012 Stats (A/AA): 103.2 IP, 5.38 ERA, 82/36 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP Selected from Boston in the Rule 5 draft, Pressly is a former starter who’s found new life as a hard-throwing reliever, and he'll now get his first chance to pitch in the majors. Reports from Ft. Myers have generally been very positive, with observers calling out his noticeable velocity and sharp breaking ball. But here’s the thing: his purportedly nasty stuff hasn’t translated to strikeouts. Not in Double-A last year, where he averaged 6.8 K/9, and not in Florida this spring, where he’s managed to whiff just six of 51 batters. Color me skeptical. Secondary Lefty: Tyler Robertson, LHP 2012 Stats: 25 IP, 5.40 ERA, 26/14 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP Much like with Duensing, there is more than meets the eye when looking at Robertson’s numbers from last year. A glance at the ugly ERA and high walk total would suggest that he was a complete mess in his first exposure to the MLB ranks, but the truth is that Robertson was quite effective when in his element, holding lefty hitters to a .190 batting average and .585 OPS while fanning one out of every three. Against righties he truly was a complete mess (twice as many walks as strikeouts), and that's been his M.O., so Gardenhire would be wise to exercise even more stringency with Robertson’s usage than Duensing’s. Long Reliever: Josh Roenicke, RHP 2012 Stats: 88.2 IP, 3.25 ERA, 54/43 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP A shiny ERA covers up some serious flaws exhibited by Roenicke last year. He was erratic, walking 43 and uncorking eight wild pitches in 88 innings, and he allowed too much contact. That's a recipe for trouble even when you throw hard, as Jeff Gray demonstrated last season. If the Twins are expecting Roenicke to walk the tightrope so effectively once again they are bound for disappointment. But my guess is that they're not so much concerned with his results as his workload. The guy was a horse in Colorado’s bullpen last year, making 63 appearances and frequently logging multiple innings. There’s value in a rubber arm like that, especially for a team that figures to weather several abbreviated starts. As long as Roenicke can merely hold his own (a la Anthony Swarzak, who may be gunning for his job when he returns from the DL) he’ll have a chance to stick. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: gibson.jpg Mike Berardino, the excellent new beat writer for the Pioneer Press, linked to a new story on Wednesday with an amusing teaser: "Attention Gibsonites: Kyle Gibson takes a step back at Rochester." Gibsonites. I like it. And it’s a label I’ll proudly wear because, from my view, it seems obvious that Gibson should be on the major-league roster by now. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Yes, it's true. The right-hander had a poor outing on Wednesday. The Twins are of course no strangers to those. In his worst start of the season, Gibson lasted only three-plus innings, coughing up four runs on seven hits. On the same day, Mike Pelfrey turned in yet another unimpressive effort for the Twins. Along with Vance Worley and Pedro Hernandez, Pelfrey has been a mess, helping to saddle Minnesota's starting corps with the second-worst ERA in the major leagues. Worley owns the highest opponents’ batting average in the game at .379 and Pelfrey ranks fourth at .339. Hernandez has allowed a 1.172 OPS against right-handed hitters, demonstrating why he doesn’t belong in an MLB rotation. Unlike those three struggling starters, Gibson has found success more often than not this year. He hurled a complete game shutout prior to Wednesday's dud, and his overall numbers -- 3.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 38/12 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 innings -- are perfectly solid. One could say he's been inconsistent, but look at what we're comparing him to. The Twins should feel compelled to shake things up in their rotation at this point because the passive approach isn't working. Even looking beyond the potential for improved results, there is the matter of Gibson's development, which should rank as a high priority at this point. He was considered nearly big-league ready before he suffered his injury, and he's now 20 months removed from surgery. In late April, Terry Ryan declared the 25-year-old pitching prospect to be “100 percent.” “There’s no question – his arm, delivery, his mechanics. Everything is in good order, which is encouraging,” said the general manager. So… what’s the hold-up? The Twins set a 130-150 inning cap for Gibson this year in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, and he’s already closing in on 50 frames at Triple-A. How many more of his limited innings will be used up facing minor-league hitters, whom he’s proven capable of handling in spite of a couple clunky outings, when he could be gaining valuable MLB experience? It’s a bit of a baffling situation when you consider that standing in Gibson’s way are some of the most hittable pitchers in the major leagues. Even if he struggles to adapt, you’d be hard-pressed to argue that the former first-round pick would be a downgrade from any member of the rotation not named Scott Diamond or Kevin Correia. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: burroughs.jpg The Twins announced today that they have designated infielder Sean Burroughs for assignment to make room for Drew Butera on the 25-man roster. This one is a head-scratcher. You can certainly make the argument that Joe Mauer's knee tenderness necessitated a call-up for Butera, as he may serve as more of a second catcher than third catcher for the time being. It's just tough to understand why the Twins felt the need to dump Burroughs when there was no good reason to do so. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Justin Morneau came out of Monday night's game against the Angels due to wrist pain. This isn't a guy with a low pain threshold, so it's safe to say that Morneau must have been hurting pretty bad to pull himself from the game. The problem was deemed serious enough that he was immediately flown back to Minnesota for an MRI. Fortunately, Morneau received good news today when it was revealed that there's no structural damage to the wrist, but he won't be ready to play until Friday "at the earliest." Why not just throw Morneau on the DL and delay the roster decision? I'm not saying Burroughs is necessarily useful, but we can't make that judgment based on his 18 sporadic plate appearances. He was at the very least a veteran left-handed bat to bring off the bench, and with him and Luke Hughes both gone there is nobody on the roster to press Danny Valencia, who has been shaky in the field and jarringly horrible at the plate with a .646 OPS and 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Maybe Burroughs wasn't really an asset, but the Twins sure seemed convinced he was less than a month ago. Beyond weakening the bench and forcing the team to play short-handed for at least the next two games, the decision not to DL Morneau seems questionable on its own merits. He claims that the wrist has been bothering him since the Rays series – which was over a week ago – and it's a recurring injury from last year, so giving him an extra 10 days to rest probably wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Rather than play it safe and stash a player on the disabled list to keep the roster at full strength, the Twins have decided to wait a few days and reevaluate. Sadly typical of this team. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Eddie-rosario.jpg In 2011, Miguel Sano enjoyed a breakout season in Elizabethton, launching 20 homers in just 66 games for the Twins' advanced rookie-league affiliate. Because that dazzling performance served as a springboard for the young slugger, who has since graduated to elite prospect status, it can be easy to forget that Sano didn't even lead his team in home runs that year. No, that would be Eddie Rosario, who went deep 21 times and posted a 1.068 OPS for E-town -- one of the best offensive seasons ever assembled in the Appalachian League. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] While he has never garnered the same massive hype as Sano, Rosario has managed to stay on the same aggressive promotion schedule and has hit at every level. If he's not as close to the majors as Sano, who could be up next month, he's certainly not far behind. Following his huge season in Elizabethton, Rosario was moved from center field to second base, as the Twins hoped to shift some of their minor-league strength from the outfield to the infield. Though his adaptation to the new position has included some bumps, his glovework has mostly drawn solid reviews. And the bat... well, the bat just continues to shine. Rosario has hit .307/.359/.513 overall in four minor-league seasons. He batted .329 with a .903 OPS in the first half at Ft. Myers to earn a promotion to New Britain, and in the Eastern League he is currently at .274/.333/.403 through 56 games. Those numbers don't stick out like the ones he's posted elsewhere, but this is a 21-year-old getting his first taste of Double-A. Among 19 second basemen with 200-plus plate appearances in the EL, Rosario is the third-youngest and ranks seventh in OPS. Pretty damn good. The thing about Rosario is that he doesn't necessarily have particular skills that elevate him above the rest. His power has come back down to Earth after the 21-homer season in E-town -- he has hit only 22 total bombs in two seasons since. His plate discipline isn't great. He's not much a base stealer (19-for-40 over the last two years, yuck). But Rosario can straight-up hit, and has done so very consistently while rising rapidly through Minnesota's system. He's clearly a part of the next wave for the Twins, but how long will it be before we actually see him at Target Field? The Aggressive Route Sano has forced his way into consideration for a September call-up due to his sheer obliteration of Eastern League pitching. That hasn't been the case for Rosario, whose numbers at New Britain profile more as good than great, especially after a recent slump that has seen him bat .158 over his past 10 contests. Early 2014 would seem to be the soonest we might see Rosario, and when the Twins do finally decide to give the kid a look, they'll need to find room for him with the suddenly entrenched Brian Dozier holding down second base. There are a number of potential ways to go about this. As a young, cheap second baseman coming off a breakout year, Dozier might have some trade value during the offseason. If they could flip him for quality arms while opening a spot for Rosario, it's something they would have to look at. Heck, they could even look at trading Rosario if the right opportunity comes along. The more likely scenario, however, is that the Twins look to create space for both Dozier and Rosario. That might mean trying Dozier at shortstop again (although he's looked so comfortable at second that's hard to envision). It might also mean sliding Rosario back into the outfield, at least temporarily. Suddenly the Twins don't look quite so stacked out there in the short term, with Aaron Hicks' brutal season casting doubt on his readiness. By starting in Rochester next year, Rosario would be ready to put up numbers and position himself for a call-up whenever a need arises, either at second or in the outfield. The Conservative Route It's easy to caught up in the flurry of promotions, what with all the midseason movement we've seen this summer. Guys like Sano and Byron Buxton have changed the rules for an organization that typically opts for a more patient approach. But it's important to remember that Rosario simply isn't on the level of those two, and the Twins might be a bit gun-shy about pushing too hard with non-generational talents after watching Hicks struggle immensely with the transition from Double-A to the majors this year. Next spring, Rosario will still be only 22, and unless he turns things around in the final weeks at New Britain he'll be coming off a fairly pedestrian half-season in Double-A. By returning to the Rock Cats next year, the second baseman will still be younger than many of his peers in the Eastern League, and he'll be able to dictate his own pace through his production. With Dozier earning plenty of leash in the majors, the Twins have the luxury of taking things as slowly as they want without worrying about robbing the big-league club of a talent that could sorely be used (unlike with Sano and Alex Meyer). The Likely Route With his lack of overwhelming production in New Britain, along with the presence of Dozier in the majors, I expect the Twins to go full-out conservative with Rosario. And that's perfectly fine. Let him continue to iron out his game and work his way up to Triple-A and beyond while the Twins continue to see what they have in their emerging 26-year-old incumbent. 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Download attachment: clock.jpg When healthy, Joe Mauer is one of baseball’s elite players, and a fitting centerpiece for a championship-caliber team. The Twins are aware of this, which is why they locked him up with a $184 million contract back in 2010. When they committed to paying the hometown star $23 million annually for eight years – until he’s 35 – the Twins knew that the best value in the deal was likely to come at the front end. That’s just a natural facet of baseball and pro sports in general[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]; players are at their best around their late 20s and tend to decline as they age into their 30s as athleticism, quickness and durability gradually erode. That’s especially true for a career catcher with a history of leg injuries. None of that means Mauer is bound to turn into a pumpkin any time soon, but as you watch him right now – 30 years old, fully healthy for the first time in years – you’re looking at one of the game’s premier players. We can’t take for granted that he will continue to play at this level forever, especially while remaining at catcher. His unparalleled approach at the plate means he’ll probably be a good hitter until the day he retires, but Mauer simply won’t be able to affect games in the same way if he’s a plodding designated hitter or first baseman. Like it or not, that’s in his future at some point down the line. Despite their strong start to the season, the Twins would probably admit that they’re not currently within a window of contention. It’s in their best interest to enter one sooner rather than later, and while there are various reasons for that, Mauer has to rank near the top of the list. All the talk we heard during the off-season about how the organization should set its sights on competing in 2016 never made any sense; are the Twins supposed to let three potentially great years from one of the best players in franchise history go to waste while waiting for prospects to (we hope) grow into big-league contributors? Fortunately, the rebuilding timeline doesn’t look as daunting as some have feared. In part, that’s because a couple of guys that the Twins expect to be part of their next contending core – Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia – are already getting their feet wet in the big leagues. Meanwhile, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are obliterating their current levels and could be on the move more quickly than anticipated. Of course, pitching is the key piece in this equation, and in that department the Twins also seem headed rapidly in the right direction. Newly acquired starter Alex Meyer – who, let’s face it, might be the single most important prospect in the system with the way the organization has put all its pitching eggs in the “potential ace” basket – is off to a torrid start in New Britain with a 1.69 ERA and plenty of strikeouts through three starts. His teammate and fellow new acquisition Trevor May has also flashed some dominance, though his command issues remain. Kyle Gibson has been solid in Triple-A. It seems likely that at least two, and maybe all three, of these young hurlers will get a chance to pitch in the majors at some point this year, putting them in position to fill out a rotation that already likely features one or two quality long-term pieces. Put it all together, knock on some wood, and you’ve got an organization headed toward an ideal scenario: a group of promising young players with a bit of experience surrounding a still prime-aged superstar, with plenty of money available to fill in holes as needed. Click here to view the article

If it wasn't obvious before his latest poor performance, it certainly seems obvious now that Scott Diamond is in line for a demotion from the Minnesota Twins rotation. Since pitching well in his first five starts back in April and May, the lefty has gone 2-7 with a 6.65 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 28/24 K/BB ratio in his past 13 turns. It would be one thing if he were showing signs of improvement, but that's not the case.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In his last three outings, Diamond has surrendered 16 hits, 10 walks, 11 earned runs and four homers while recording just two strikeouts. He has allowed more than twice as many fly balls as grounders in that time. I wrote back in late May that Diamond was getting away from the things that had made him successful last season, and recently that has been more blatantly true than ever. On Sunday, after watching Diamond get shelled for six runs in 4 2/3 innings, the soft-spoken and non-provocative Tom Kelly opined while filling in as commentator on FSN's broadcast that the time has probably come for a change. It was clear to him -- as it has been to many of us -- that Diamond doesn't presently belong in a major-league rotation. In the wake of his latest disastrous outing, the lefty was mystified that his great work in the bullpen isn't translating over to games. I've seen some variation of that quote from a Twins' starter far too often this season; it conveys a sense of hopelessness, and convinces me more than ever that Diamond needs a break to get things figured out. At this point, the Twins surely must agree, though they appear content to give him at least one more chance. If a move should come in the near future, who are the candidates to replace him? With Pedro Hernandez and Cole De Vries on the shelf, let's take a look at the available arms on hand in Class-AAA Rochester: Download attachment: worley.jpg Vance Worley, RHP AAA Stats: 9 GS, 58 IP, 3.88 ERA, 34/17 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP Minnesota's Opening Day starter was demoted back in late May with a 7.21 ERA and an obscene .381 opponents' batting average. His performance in Triple-A has looked far better on the surface, but at a deeper glance it's pretty tough to get excited about his improvements. Even against the lesser competition, Worley has still been unable to strike people out (5.3 K/9) while allowing too many hits (65 in 58 innings). He was placed on the 7-day disabled list last week with shoulder inflammation, but he'll be eligible to return tomorrow, so his availability depends on the severity of the injury. Even if he returns soon, the Twins will likely want to see him prove that he's healthy and effective before a recall is considered. Andrew Albers, LHP AAA Stats: 20 GS, 115.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 105/29 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP Albers has been the standout performer on Rochester's staff, consistently turning in strong outings while posting a respectable K-rate (8.2 K/9) and controlling the running game (three stolen bases attempted in 20 starts). As a 27-year-old who was pitching as a reliever in an independent league three years ago, Albers is hardly a conventional prospect, but based on merit he is beyond deserving of a look in the majors. The stumbling block: he still needs to be added to the 40-man roster. P.J. Walters, RHP AAA Stats: 11 GS, 61.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 53/21 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP Walters was called up to fill in back in late May and quickly unraveled after a couple good starts, leading to his second designation for assignment in two years. It's plain to see that he doesn't have the stuff to pitch in the majors, as illustrated by a 5.79 ERA in 101 innings with the Twins over the past two seasons, so although he chose to stay in the organization after his latest demotion, you have to figure that he's exhausted his opportunities in Minnesota. Liam Hendriks AAA Stats: 11 GS, 65 IP, 5.12 ERA, 39/12 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP The forgotten man. Hendriks made the Twins' rotation out of spring training but was bumped after two starts (a shockingly short leash, considering how long guys like Worley and Diamond have been allowed to flap in the wind). While in Rochester, he missed about a month due to injury and hasn't pitched very well, although his control has remained very good and prior to his last clunker he had rattled off four straight quality starts. Hendriks has looked hittable everywhere this year, but he's still only 24 and might have a better shot at making a future impact in the Twins rotation than anyone else listed here (save for Worley, who is presently unavailable). Nick Blackburn AAA Stats: 1 GS, 5 IP, 10.80 ERA, 0/0 K/BB, 2.00 WHIP I can already hear the cringing. Twins fans tend to have a visceral reaction to Blackburn, who is currently earning $5.5 million in the last year of an ill-advised contract extension, but there's a good chance we'll be seeing him in Minnesota before season's end. After undergoing his third arm surgery in as many years in the spring, Blackburn missed the first half but is now on the rehab trail and nearing a potential return. After achieving decent results (3.80 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) in five starts between the rookie-level GCL and Double-A, he was promoted to Rochester this week and made his debut on Tuesday night. An absolutely terrible outing didn't help his cause, but he's got plenty of time to convince the club that he deserves one more look. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: terryryan.jpg In his latest column for ESPN 1500, Phil Mackey opens with the following statement: "Unlike in the previous two offseasons, there will be no over-promising and under-delivering by the Minnesota Twins in 2013." Incidentally, that's pretty much exactly how I would describe this offseason for the Twins. Over-promising and under-delivering. Terry Ryan talked at length in the early days of winter about moving aggressively to upgrade the club's beleaguered pitching corps, and because I tend to trust Ryan, I bought into this stated commitment. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In his interview for the Offseason Handbook, Ryan insisted that the Twins would pursue a "pretty darn good pitcher" in free agency. In a subsequent interview with MLB Network, he responded to a question from Ken Rosenthal about his apparent rebuilding approach by saying, "I think that's a good excuse to fail, Kenny. I don't have much interest in telling people we're playing for 2015. We need to get going here, we've had two tough years… We've got to quit talking about building for the future." All of that rhetoric certainly falls short of what we've actually seen this offseason, however. Ryan made a couple nice trades for the long-term, swapping out Denard Span and Ben Revere for some intriguing young arms, but his short-term strategy has been puzzling to say the least. Kevin Correia was the team's top "prize" in free agency, followed by fliers on a couple reclamation projects in Mike Pelfrey and Rich Harden. By nearly all accounts, the Twins have made very little effort to outbid the competition for remotely high-profile names. Now, with at least $15 million in supposedly available payroll remaining, Ryan is "likely done making significant moves." In his ESPN 1500 interview, the Twins' general manager attempted to put a realistic slant on the coming season, noting that making the playoffs would be ideal but is unlikely. This is probably what Mackey was getting at with his opening line, but even Ryan's adjusted goal of playing meaningful baseball in September looks like a reach based on the moves he's made. When your pitching staff ranks as one of the worst in the game, it takes more than a couple low-end stopgap solutions to foster significant improvement, and the club's hesitance to put more of its available funds toward tapping into that middle tier of starters suggests a level of commitment that is not in line with their purported resolve. Up to this point, the Twins have spent minimally in addressing their pitiful rotation via free agency, and if payroll remains around its current ~$80 million mark, it will be $15 million lower than it was last year and $30 million lower than 2011. Heck, right now the number is closer to where it was in 2007 in the Metrodome than where it's been any year at Target Field. Payroll isn't everything, of course, but the amount that the Twins are willing to spend says a lot about their true desire to promptly right the ship, especially with such drastic needs in the starting corps and so many free agent pitchers inking lucrative deals. Maybe Ryan and Co. really do believe they've done enough to position this team for a leap forward in 2013. Perhaps they're confident in the ability of internal options to step up, or they have some reason to believe Pelfrey and Harden will be healthy and productive that I'm not aware of. Perhaps there's another move coming and the quotes we're seeing are intended to flip the script by under-promising and over-delivering. Right now that's feeling like wishful thinking. If what we see is what we're going to get, this season is shaping up to be more of the same, and despite their adamant claims to the contrary the organization doesn't appear all that fiercely determined to prevent such an outcome. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: gibsontwins.jpg Kyle-a-palooza? Gibsanity? Gibsmas? Whatever you wanted to call it, Kyle Gibson's debut on Saturday generated a palpable buzz throughout Twins Territory. Eagerly awaited and long overdue, the rookie's arrival aids a pitching staff in the midst of its third straight year of sub-mediocrity. He doesn't profile as one of the league's elite pitchers, but Gibson is likely the best pitching prospect to graduate from the Twins' system since Matt Garza in 2006, and he showed why in his debut. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Gibson came as advertised, delivering with high velocity and impressive command from an imposing 6'6" frame. The 25-year-old exhibited no signs of jitters as he fired 64 of 91 pitches for strikes and issued no walks. The Royals managed eight hits in six innings, but few of them were hit hard and Gibson limited the damage to two runs in an easy victory. Some voices have warned that expectations for the right-hander might be getting out of hand. Even his ardent supporters will admit that Gibson probably doesn't have the upside of a top-tier pitcher in the major leagues. But so what? There was an awful lot to like in Saturday's performance. Gibson displayed poise that was, in light of all he has gone through to get to this point, shocking. He peppered the lower regions of the strike zone with a heavy fastball that routinely whizzed in at 92-93 MPH and occasionally touched 95. That's a number Twins fans aren't accustomed to seeing with anyone other than Glen Perkins on the hill. It might be that "so overrated he's underrated" phenomenon, but I get the sense that some actually are underselling Gibson's ability to an extent. In his first big-league game, he was constantly locating a power sinker around knee level, mixing in breaking balls that made people miss. He's done these things throughout his career, when healthy. Guys with that type of stuff/command combo often excel in the majors, and if Saturday was any indication, Gibson has the makeup to match. Will he ever be Stephen Strasburg? No. But can he be the No. 1 starter in a quality rotation? I'd say so. Keep in mind the Twins haven't had a true "ace" since Johan Santana's departure, and have still made the playoffs twice since then. Of course, it's not Gibson that the Twins are eyeing as the next arm to earn that vaunted ace label. That would be Alex Meyer, who was acquired in return for Denard Span during the offseason. When he came over from Washington, Meyer instantly became the highest-upside pitcher in the system. The ideal scenario was that Meyer and Gibson (and perhaps Trevor May, if he ever refined his control enough) could join forces atop the embattled Minnesota rotation, helping usher in a return to contention sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, as well as things are currently going for Gibson, the developments surrounding Meyer have been far more troubling. The 24-year-old hasn't pitched in a month due to shoulder soreness, and there now appears some doubt over whether he'll pitch again this year. Asked earlier this month about the prospect's status, Ryan said that MRI results had come back clean and that Meyer was fine, adding, "I don't think anybody thought it was that serious." Twins fans breathed a sigh of relief. And yet, three weeks later, Meyer still has not pitched competitively. It doesn't look like he's especially close to doing so. Over the weekend, New Britain manager Jeff Smith had this to say about the righty: "Hopefully by the end of the season, really just later in the season, he'll be able to pitch in some games." Matt Straub, who covers the Rock Cats for the New Britain Herald, inferred that to mean Meyer would be out for at least the entire month of July. The Twins insist that they're just playing it cautious with Meyer, who is on a throwing program in Ft. Myers, but it's tough not to be alarmed with the indefinite return date. Shoulder problems are always scary for young hurlers, and Meyer -- whose delivery is high-stress, as he delivers in the upper-90s from a wiry 6'9" build with a three-quarters arm slot -- has always presented more risk than most. Hopefully, this truly is an instance where the team is taking every possible precaution with a young man who might be the single most important asset in the entire organization at this point. But fans will find little comfort in Ryan's assertions that everything is fine, especially when we now know this to be the front office's initial assurance in the case of every injury, even those that prove severe. And hell, maybe we should be worrying a little more about Gibson's shoulders. After all, he's carrying a heavy burden as one of the brightest hopes for the Twins' rotation for the foreseeable future. Until Meyer successfully returns to the mound or May takes a step forward, Gibson alone will be labeled with that designation. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: rebuilding.jpg There is little debate over the fact that the Twins' moves this offseason haven't done much to help ensure significant improvement in 2013. This club appears to have its sights set fully on a target somewhere further down the line. Among fans and media, there seems to be a split between people who question this approach and those who accept it. Whatever your feelings on the matter, it's important to be realistic about the timeline for building a contending team around players that are currently in Double-A (or lower). It's also important to remain cognizant of the organization's outlook going forward. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Minnesota's present payroll commitment for this year of about $80 million has been a much bandied number. But the numbers get more interesting as you start to look ahead. By using Jeremy Nygaard's excellent Roster & Payroll resource, we can see that in 2014 the team is tied up for about $45 million in six existing contracts. They will have many league-minimum youngsters and a number of players eligible for arbitration (many for the first time) but you could generously assume that $20 million will be more than enough to cover all that. It'd still leave them an Albert Pujols short of their 2012 level. The following year, with Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia, Jared Burton and Ryan Doumit eligible to come off the books, the Twins aren't attached to anyone beyond Joe Mauer and Glen Perkins. This organization has been burdened by some bad contracts in recent seasons, but in two years the Twins are looking at only $26 million in firmly committed money, which is undeniably an enviable position for a rebuilding team. They will have a great deal of flexibility to sign strong performers to contract extensions, fill holes that they can't patch internally and perhaps even make a blockbuster signing. It's not hard to see the big-picture wisdom in this strategy. At the same time, they would have had plenty of flexibility even if they splurged on more than the Correia and Mike Pelfrey types in an effort to boost the quality of their current product. And if they thought signing free agents has been challenging this winter, the competition for desirable players only figures to get tougher going forward with fewer options available and more teams eager to spend added revenues. It sounds like Terry Ryan is at least somewhat interested in luring Joe Saunders, which would change the complexion of this offseason somewhat, but if that doesn't happen and he moves forward with what he has, it would signal his belief in a few things. First, that the current pipeline will produce a core capable of taking this team to the next level, and quickly enough that the organization is not mired in this dismal state for three or four more years. Second, that the pieces he needs to add through free agency and trade (and there will be needs) will be available and will be better investments than pitchers added with multi-year deals now. Finally, that this year's team – which does feature a number of quality players between Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Perkins and others – will not be particularly close to competitive and that he won't regret taking such minimal steps to provide them with legitimate help. I'm skeptical about all those things proving true, but they seem to be the gambles Ryan is prepared to take. He's the guy in charge and it's safe to say he knows a little more about this whole rodeo than me or any other fan expressing puzzlement with his approach, so with the season drawing near, I guess we'll just have to hop on board and hope for the best. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: toriihuntertigers.jpg Although he hasn't had a great series, Torii Hunter's Detroit Tigers are headed to a decisive Game 5 against the Oakland Athletics after a huge win on Tuesday night. This is Hunter's seventh trip to the postseason -- a pretty impressive accomplishment when you think about it. You don't see too many players reaching the playoffs seven times in their career, let alone as part of three different clubs. Part of it is that Hunter has been fortunate enough to play almost exclusively on good teams, but certainly another part of it is that he has legitimately helped those teams get it done. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Hunter has been a great player, one whose contributions in Minnesota I may have under-appreciated to some degree in retrospect. While I've always admired Hunter's game, I haven't always loved him. He's notoriously opinionated and occasionally has things to say that I just don't care for. Then again, you can't fault a guy for speaking his mind, and based on the way he's viewed by teammates and media, it seems safe to say that overall he's an amiable guy and a clubhouse asset. Fans are drawn to his effervescent nature on the field, not to mention his constantly high levels of energy and effort. Is he a Hall of Famer? I would say no. He has never truly been one of the greatest players in the league and to me that's a prerequisite. But Hunter has a better case than you might suspect. He has hit 314 home runs while spending most of his career as an elite defensive center fielder (nine Gold Gloves). And boy, has he been consistent. From 2001 through 2011, he hit 20-plus homers every year (with the exception of 2005, when he missed almost half the season due to a broken ankle), and while his power has waned somewhat in his late 30s, he has still posted an .800+ OPS in each of the past two campaigns. When you look back at those scrappy Twins teams that largely reigned over the AL Central from 2002 through his departure in 2007, it's difficult not to see Hunter as the steady beating heart. Other players came and went, had their ups and downs, but Hunter was good every year, providing middle-of-the-lineup offense along with legendary defense at a crucially important position. There's no question that, these days, the Twins are missing many of the things Hunter brought to the table. That leads to another thought: Could a return to Minnesota ever be in the cards for the veteran outfielder? Hunter has one more season remaining on his two-year, $26 million contract with the Tigers. He'll be a free agent again next year, at age 39, when the Twins may be looking to add some extra pieces to a roster that will (hopefully) be shaping up as a contender driven by young stars. Acquiring players who are verging on 40 can be dangerous, but the Twins had great success in a similar situation with Jim Thome and it appears that Hunter has taken phenomenal care of his body because he's showing few signs of age. Might the Twins consider bringing him back for one last go? Should they? It's a fun talking point as the Hunter gears up for one of the biggest games of his life. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: shields.jpg A new year is upon us, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to determine the Twins' resolution for 2013: Get better. After consecutive putrid seasons that were essentially over by the All-Star break, the club is aiming to field a more competitive group in the coming campaign and beyond. Certainly they've made some nice moves to address the "beyond" part, but what about the short-term? As I discussed with Aaron on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast over the weekend, there's a sizable difference between striving to compete and actually contending. For Minnesota, the latter is highly unlikely this year but the former should be expected. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As the Twins work to escape the AL Central cellar, they need to concentrate on making up ground against divisional opponents, most importantly in the pitching department. So let's take a look at all of the arms that have been added to the Central thus far, and see how the Twins' acquisitions stack up. Below, I've listed all the major-league starting pitchers who've been signed, re-signed or traded for by teams within the Central, ranked by my subjective assessment of quality. If I missed anyone, please feel free to add names in the comments section. 1. James Shields (Royals) 2. Anibal Sanchez (Tigers) 3. Jake Peavy (White Sox) 4. Trevor Bauer (Indians) 5. Ervin Santana (Royals) 6. Jeremy Guthrie (Royals) 7. Wade Davis (Royals) 8. Vance Worley (Twins) 9. Brett Myers (Indians) 10. Kevin Correia (Twins) 11. Mike Pelfrey (Twins) You can quibble a bit with the rankings, but looking over this list one thing becomes clear: every other team in the division has sought and landed higher quality on the pitching market than Minnesota. The Twins had a more urgent need for rotation help than perhaps any other team in baseball, and although they've been aggressive in the sense that they've added several players, the ones they've brought in compare poorly against those acquired by opponents. That's not even touching on the other side of the ball, where other clubs have been making additions (e.g. Torii Hunter, Nick Swisher, Mike Reynolds and Jeff Kepinger) while the Twins have been making only subtractions. Minnesota was the worst team in the Central last year and the rest of the division seems to be only widening that gap this winter. Simply unacceptable. The potentially good news is that there are still a few names on the market that would rank respectably on the list above and would considerably improve the grade of the Twins' offseason. These include Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders, but the crop is dwindling. It's unclear whether Terry Ryan is interested in legitimately pursuing any of these players. If he doesn't, it will be difficult to look at his offseason as anything short of a failure. Click here to view the article

According to the Star Tribune's Phil Miller, the Twins have elected to call up red-hot prospect Oswaldo Arcia from Triple-A. It appears that Arcia's major-league debut will be a brief one – just a few days while backup outfielder Wilkin Ramirez is away for the birth of his child – but still the decision carries many levels of intrigue. Arcia is an exciting yet curious choice as a roster fill-in. Typically in a situation like this, a team will simply call up a body to provide depth, especially when the departing player is a fifth outfielder. Instead, the Twins have opted for one of their top prospects, a fast-tracked 21-year-old with 78 games of experience above Single-A. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Arcia will likely be in the starting lineup on Monday and for the rest of the Angels series; you don't call a player like this up to put him on the bench. He'll become the youngest player to debut for the Twins since Joe Mauer back in 2004. Download attachment: oswaldo-arcia.jpg I can't imagine the Twins will play Arcia in center, so,if I'm correct, subbing him for Aaron Hicks isn't really an option. That means Ron Gardenhire will have to shuffle his lineup around a bit to find room for the hot prospect. Maybe Gardenhire will have him spell Chris Parmelee in right field one day, then try him in left while sliding Willingham to DH the next. Meanwhile, a Rochester team that's gotten off to a rough start loses its best hitter for a short spell. Seems like a lot of to-do when the kid is only going to be up for three days, but this is clearly signifies that the Twins want to get a look at Arcia in the majors, and now. It also might be a sign that they're looking to sway the public sentiment surrounding their product. With depressing mid-April snow showering the Twin Cities, the organization has been weathering an early-season storm of its own. The team has tanked after a nice start, with five straight losses marked by dreadful starting pitching, frustrating miscues in the field and repeated missed opportunities at the plate. Their heralded rookie center fielder has been an unmitigated disaster. They've also been dealing with painfully low turnout and blowback from their batting practice PR blunder. The Twins needed some sort of positive spark to turn the tide, and while this likely wasn't the driving factor in Arcia's promotion, it's an unmistakable side benefit. After impressing coaches in spring training (I heard rumblings in Ft. Myers of Gardenhire's adoration), the young outfielder has opened his season in Rochester by obliterating Triple-A pitching, with a .414/.500/.793 hitting line to go along with three homers and eight RBI through nine games. While some prospects in the lower minors have gotten off to good starts, Arcia is knocking on the door at the highest level and is clearly the system's headliner right now. And so the club will take advantage of this opportunity to showcase that headliner, if only for one series. The question that now arises is this: What do the Twins do if Arcia comes up and absolutely rakes for three games? Sending him back down negates the good vibes created by his hopefully auspicious arrival yet there's no path to long-term regular playing time with the big-league club. Willingham and Parmelee are locked into the outfield corners, and Doumit is going to get the majority of at-bats at DH. Of course, this wouldn't necessarily be a bad problem to have. Rather than seeking to downplay any stir created by Arcia's fast start and the disappointing early returns from the lineup, the Twins are actively fanning the flames, especially if the rook makes an impact at Target Field this week. Maybe that's the whole point. A message is being sent not only to Arcia, whose thunderous bat is being noticed and rewarded, but also to the players in the Twins' lineup who have been scuffling early on. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: wimmers.jpg An outcome that has long seemed inevitable became a reality today when it was announced that pitching prospect Alex Wimmers was slated to undergo Tommy John surgery. It's a major setback in a career that hasn't really been able to get off the starting block. The story leading up to this news is a familiar and frustrating one. Back in April, Wimmers landed on the disabled list after one start with what was thought to be a minor elbow strain. An MRI exam in early May revealed a partial tear in his UCL. The Twins opted for rehab. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He spent the next couple months wearing a stabilizer, resumed throwing in early July and took the mound later that month for a start in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. Wimmers didn't make it through the first inning. He allowed three runs on four hits and a walk while recording two outs. After the outing, he reported discomfort in the elbow, and after another MRI the Twins opted for surgery. Between Wimmers, Scott Baker and Kyle Gibson, that's three instances in the past two seasons where the medical staff became aware of a pitcher's elbow issue and either misdiagnosed it or prescribed a futile rest/rehab solution. Take it back even further and you can include names like Pat Neshek and Francisco Liriano. Understandably, surgery is seen as a last resort, but in many of these cases the ultimately misguided decision to delay action can have a profoundly negative impact on these players' careers. For example, there's a chance Wimmers won't return until 2014, at which point he'll be a 25 with one career start above Single-A. Had he undergone surgery back in May when the tear was first discovered, he may have been able to come back midway through next season. I don't have nearly enough insight on the situation to condemn the medical staff and it's possible this happens just as frequently in other organizations, but on the surface it just looks bad – especially for a pitching-starved franchise with so little margin for error when it comes to handling its prospective young arms. Either way, complaining about the process avoids what is at the heart of this issue: terrible luck. The Twins had the foresight to addressing their upcoming dearth of starting pitching by drafting fast-track college starters in the first round two years in a row, and within a couple years of joining the organization each one succumbed to one of the most significant injuries a hurler can have. You can perhaps blame the Twins for pushing back timelines, but you can't blame them for the injuries themselves occurring. These are outside circumstances taking an immense toll on Terry Ryan's ability to rebuild a depleted rotation. For that, he should probably be cut some slack. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: lirianopirates.jpg On Monday night, Francisco Liriano spun perhaps his most impressive gem in a season that's been full of them. Facing the Padres in San Diego, the lefty hurled seven scoreless innings, striking out 13 and allowing only four hits to pick up his 14th win of the campaign. Through 19 starts for Pittsburgh, Liriano holds a 2.53 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 126/47 strikeout-to-walk ratio with only five home runs allowed in 121 innings. He has been, in a word, sensational -- the ace starter for a team that appears headed for the playoffs. His 13 strikeouts on Monday night were six more than any Twins pitcher has tallied in a start this season. Meanwhile, a Minnesota team that let him walk after several maddeningly inconsistent seasons remains anchored near the bottom of the standings, with a rotation that continues to be one of the worst in the league while offering little hope for improvement. To be sure, there are plenty of ways you can couch this situation so that it doesn't reflect quite so poorly on Twins management. He posted a 5.18 ERA during his final two seasons in Minny, and his production was essentially identical in 12 outings after being traded to the White Sox last year. He continued to hurt his own case with a bizarre offseason injury. Of course, as the Twins and their defenders will emphasize, Liriano's success this year has come in the National League, where opposing lineups are less threatening and less familiar with the left-hander's arsenal. Still, all of those excuses fall short with me. The NL might be an easier pitching environment but it's still the major leagues, and Liriano's performance doesn't merely look good in contrast to Minnesota's motley crew. We're talking about a Cy Young contender here. He may not be a terribly strong contender due to his late start and the assortment of incredible pitching performances in the Senior Circuit this year, but Liriano leads his league in wins and ranks among the top 10 in K/9 rate, ground ball rate, ERA, xFIP and home run rate. Many Twins fans have taken this as another opportunity to lash out at Rick Anderson. I'm not taking that route. Anderson worked hard to straighten out the erratic southpaw and for the most part I think Frankie created his own problems. However, it was always clear from watching Liriano that he had immense talent, and he's still in the middle of his physical prime at 29 years old. Rather than gamble on that ability with minimal risk (the Pirates ended up guaranteeing him only a million dollars on a one-year deal, and now have a fairly cheap option on him for 2014 as well) the Twins chose to take the "safe" approach, going with proven veteran mediocrities like Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey -- signings that have predictably paid no dividends. Sure, maybe Liriano would have continued down the same path had he remained in Minnesota. Maybe he wasn't even interested in staying, although it wouldn't have been too difficult to healthily outbid the Bucs. Whichever way you look at the situation, the Twins just don't come out looking good. They either failed repeatedly to help Liriano reach his potential, or screwed up by declining to take a chance on him finding it again despite their utterly desperate need for pitching. Whatever the case, with this type of judgment it's not hard to see why the Twins have worked their way into such a pitiful state with their rotation. Developments like this it make it all the more challenging to believe that the current leadership can do what it takes to get things turned around. Click here to view the article

Welcome to the season’s first edition of Three-Bagger. In these occasional columns, I will examine three different ongoing Twins storylines worth following. Today, we’ll take a look at Mike Pelfrey’s remarkable return to the hill, promising early signs from some key hitters in the middle of the lineup and a growing dilemma at the shortstop position. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] * I wrote earlier this week about the Twins’ low expectations, pointing out that they’ll need to find different ways to engage fans since a competitive record is unlikely. Good stories are always a draw, and to that end, Pelfrey certainly qualifies. On Thursday, Pelf took the mound to make his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery on May 1st of 2012. Based on my (admittedly non-scientific) research, his is the fastest comeback for a starting pitcher, ever. And unlike most hurlers recovering from the operation, Pelfrey didn’t get the benefit of a minor-league rehab stint. He sharpened up in spring training and dove right in, taking on a potent Tigers lineup at Target Field and performing admirably. The big right-hander threw 96 pitches and worked effectively into the sixth inning. He pitched even better than his numbers suggest, as both runs scored against him were the result of defensive misplays. Download attachment: Pelfreyspring.jpg Pelfrey worked mostly in the high 80s with his fastball, occasionally touching 91 or 92. That’s a step back from his pre-surgery velocity, which sat around 95 mph, but he managed to keep the ball down and induce 13 grounders compared to only four fly balls. It was a very encouraging start to the season for a guy who continues to ignore precedence and handle Tommy John recovery on his own terms. * At one point last year, it seemed like the two big right-handed boppers in the Minnesota lineup – Josh Willingham and Trevor Plouffe – were going tit for tat in the home run column. That competition trailed off after Plouffe suffered a thumb injury that sidelined him and sabotaged his production late in the season, allowing Willingham to finish with a hefty 35-24 advantage. It looks like the two are restarting the rivalry early this season. Just one inning after Willingham went deep for the first time on Thursday, Plouffe placed a tally in the home run column with a mammoth blast to left. The presence of these two sluggers in the middle of the lineup is a big reason many – including myself – believe the Twins could be a surprisingly potent offensive unit this year. While we’re still waiting for some other hitters amongst that mix to get going, it’s promising to see Willingham and Plouffe warming up the lumber early despite the chilly weather. * I mentioned earlier that Pelfrey was victimized by some shoddy defense in his outing on Thursday. If it becomes a trend, that’s going to be a real problem for the contact-heavy hurler, and the same goes for essentially everyone else in this rotation. Converting chances in the field will be vitally important this year – a big part of the reason that the Twins opted to start all-glove, no-stick shortstop Pedro Florimon. The 26-year-old has been a consistently terrible hitter throughout his career, so he needs to provide a lot of value on the other end to justify his place in the lineup. So his troubles with routine plays during the first series of the season – an extension of what we saw during his audition last season – are quite worrisome. Florimon is tremendously athletic, with quick reflexes and a great arm. He’s proven capable of making special plays. Unfortunately, he also tends to get too casual with non-rushed throws and lapse on plays that should be made. There’s little margin for those sorts of errors when his value is almost entirely vested in his defense. If the trend continues, Ron Gardenhire should not hesitate to make a change. Florimon simply hasn’t done anything to earn a long leash. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hicks.jpg Scott Diamond was going to be the carryover success from a 2012 rotation that completely imploded around him. Aaron Hicks was going to be the rookie phenom who served as the harbinger of the bright future ahead. The Twins, configured with a mixture of productive vets and talented youngsters, were going to be an improved club that alleviated the doubts formed by two straight years of utterly awful performance. The best laid plans… [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] On Thursday, Twins Territory received perhaps its biggest gut punch of the season when Diamond and Hicks were both sent to Triple-A in the wake of an ugly sweep at the hands of the Royals. The general sentiment is that these demotions were long overdue. And who could argue? Diamond has barely resembled the pitcher he was last year, when he was a strike-throwing ground ball machine with a potent curveball. The distilled version we've seen in 2013 is not major-league caliber. And Hicks, while flashing promising power at times, generally seemed overmatched, and never found sustained traction. After raising his average to a season-high .205 with a 4-for-4 effort on July 8th, he sunk back into oblivion with a .152 average and 19-to-4 K/BB ratio in 75 plate appearances since. If you look in the right places, you can find points of positivity in these developments. Hicks is still only 23 and has plenty of time to mature into a quality hitter. The demotion will almost surely delay his service clock, giving the Twins an extra year of control. With a good month against Triple-A pitching he should be back in September, and he'll likely remain a strong bet to open up in the 2014 Twins outfield. It's a little tougher to see the bright side with Diamond. He walked a fine line last year as one of baseball's lowest strikeout pitchers, leaning on elite BB and GB rates to suppress opposing lineups. This year he has deteriorated in basically every way imaginable. His walks are up, his grounders are way down, and his already anemic K-rate has plummeted to an absurd depth. At 3.8 K/9IP, he is averaging a full strikeout per game less than the next lowest qualified big-league starter (Bartolo Colon is at 4.8). At 27, Diamond is hardly over the hill. He showed the skills last year to be a solid rotation piece -- albeit not a front man -- and it's hard to believe his drastic regression is not related to lingering elbow issues. Can he rebound and return to form? It's the same question being asked of his once-again teammate, Vance Worley, and unfortunately the answers are now as unclear as ever. To be sure, the Twins have had plenty of reaffirming successes in the minor leagues this year. Oswaldo Arcia, who will now get another animated hack at the majors after unleashing a merciless onslaught on International League pitching for a couple weeks, is one that stands out. Andrew Albers, whose expected promotion is well deserved after a thoroughly impressive season in Rochester, is another nice story with potential dividends. But until we see some of these favorable outcomes play out in the majors, it's tough to feel any measure of satisfaction. As things stand, the Twins appear headed toward a third straight 90-loss season and the signs of progress on the field have been painfully few. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: plouffe.jpg Likely Starter: Trevor Plouffe 2012 Stats: .235/.301/.455, 24 HR, 55 RBI, 56 R Potential Backups: Eduardo Escobar, Jamie Carroll Identifying a solution at the hot corner has turned into a game of hot potato for the Twins. Since Corey Koskie’s departure, the list of players who have had a hand on the gig is lengthy[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]: Tony Batista, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Danny Valencia and more. Unfortunately, in each case, the assignment has proven too hot to handle. Trevor Plouffe is the latest in this long line of contenders and represents the best hope for a long-term solution in the group. His bat, slow to develop in the early minors, has game has elevated dramatically over the past three years. As a 26-year-old on the rise and entering his prime, Plouffe is an intriguing commodity with offensive upside left in the tank even after erupting for 24 homers last year. Of course, hitting isn’t the make-or-break factor for Plouffe at this point. He needs to prove to the Twins that he can consistently make all the plays at third and remain in the infield after fizzling out at shortstop with a poor showing in 2011. Plouffe has all the tools to be an above-average third baseman, with a strong arm and good lateral reflexes, but his mechanics and his focus have sometimes come into question. Without a doubt, his fielding will be under heavy scrutiny from the coaching staff. To his benefit, Plouffe has now had an entire offseason to concentrate on preparing for one specific position, whereas the last few years have seen him slide all over the diamond. Hopefully this, along with the security of a guaranteed regular job, will help him take the steps needed to satisfy the defensive expectations that come along with manning third. Plouffe has already met the offensive expectations, even in a 2012 season that had its ups and downs. He started the year as a part-time infielder, scuffling at the plate with sporadic playing time, but eventually Danny Valencia’s departure created an opening at third and Plouffe settled in. He went on an insane midseason tear, piling up 18 homers in 39 games before a thumb injury cut down his playing time and production in the second half. Plouffe’s power surge was abrupt, but the concentrated distribution of his home runs does not diminish the accomplishment of launching 24 of them in 119 games as a 25-year-old with little major-league experience. And while it may have seemed this way to some, Plouffe’s long-ball proclivity didn’t come out of nowhere. Between Triple-A and the majors, he had gone deep 17 times in 2010 and 23 times in 2011. As he has matured and grown and adjusted, he has developed into a legitimate power hitter. As long as he can stay off the trainer's table, there is no reason to expect that to change this year. Clearly, Plouffe needs to put his health issues behind him. The thumb problem nagged him throughout the final months last year and he has already dealt with a recurring calf injury this spring. But if he can get past these afflictions, I have high hopes. My expectation is that he will hit at least 25 home runs, perhaps 30 or more, and that as he gets more comfortable at third base his skills – which enabled him to stick at shortstop throughout the minors – will start to shine through and he’ll become a quality defender there. Hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced, because if Plouffe doesn’t work out there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on. If he does, the middle of this lineup could be truly formidable. Click here to view the article

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Download attachment: gibson.jpg As they try to rebuild their shattered starting pitching corps, the Twins are relying on Kyle Gibson to become a fixture in the rotation. Whereas the rest of the organization’s top pitching prospects are widely considered to be at least a year or two away, Gibson is ready now. After being sidetracked by Tommy John surgery, he’s returned throwing harder than ever and – much like in his first big-league camp in 2011 – he is impressing coaches and onlookers with his poise and polish. He is a beacon of hope for the future that the Twins can present to fans now; a bridge to what they hope will be a revamped young rotation that returns them to relevance. Considering his importance to their short-term and long-term plans, Gibson will obviously need to be handled carefully. From a physical standpoint, the Twins are addressing that by limiting his inning total for this season. But what about from a financial standpoint? The decisions made this spring, and later in the summer, will have a considerable bearing on when he'll be in line for free agency. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Once a prospect graduates to the majors his service clock kicks in. From that point, the team owns his rights for the equivalent of six full seasons. His clock pauses if he is sent to the minors (for reasons other than injury rehab) but he must spend at least 20 days there for the stint to be counted against MLB service. In other words, if Gibson was sent to the minors for 15 days this season – either at the outset of the campaign or at some point during – he would still have an opportunity to accrue a full year of major-league service. If that stint were to extend to 20 or more days, the time logged in the minors would be subtracted from his service time and he’d be unable to accrue a full year. In essence, this would push his service clock back by a full year. He won’t be able to rack up six full seasons of MLB service over the next six years, thus extending the Twins’ control over him by another season. It is for this reason that we often hear about teams wanting to hold down top prospects for the first three or four weeks of the season, even after they’ve been deemed ready for action. The Rays are known for it. Many believe the Twins should do it with Aaron Hicks. It’s a perfectly logical business decision. But there’s more complexity to this dynamic than just business, especially as it pertains to Gibson. One the one hand, if the Twins bring him north out of camp, let him pitch his allotted 130-140 innings and then shelf him, he will accrue a full year of service time while pitching only a partial season for a team that’s probably going to be near the bottom of the standings. That’s hardly ideal. On the other hand, the Twins would eat away a good chunk of his limited innings by sending him to Triple-A for even three weeks, which would be tough to stomach if the coaching staff truly believes he’s ready for the majors. Sending him to the minors in August before shutting him down would stop his service clock but would probably raise the ire of his agent and the players’ association unless his performance merited the demotion. In addition, one can argue that the Twins have a responsibility to put their best team on the field, even if it’s widely believed that this is a lost season. It’s one thing if you can assemble five respectable starters to hold down the fort until Gibson’s postponed arrival date, but if other hurlers like Scott Diamond or Mike Pelfrey need to start the year on the DL, you’re reaching pretty far down to grab a replacement. We also have to look at this from the player’s perspective. Gibson, who did everything he could after being drafted to put himself on the fast track to the majors, had his timeline pushed back dramatically by the Tommy John procedure. He’s already 25 and up to this point he hasn’t really made any money in his career outside of his signing bonus. A baseball player’s opportunity to earn is finite, and Gibson is already looking at being 32 before he has a chance to hit that big free agent payday. To have that milestone pushed back further – despite his proving himself in spring training – so that the Twins can save a little money down the line would be understandably frustrating and could create bad blood. Fans may recall the situations that developed when the agents of Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins accused the Twins of employing a similar clock-delaying strategy in years past, and in those cases the club actually had solid ground because of the players’ performances. Keeping Gibson happy is probably more essential than anything to keeping him in a Twins uniform long-term, and if the team does right by him they shouldn’t have any trouble retaining him for as long as they like. If the young hurler pans out, then by the time he’s approaching that distant free agent eligibility date the Twins will surely approach him about an extension that buys out his remaining arbitration years and his first few years of free agency (think Scott Baker). At that point, all these concerns about the hypothetical end of his service clock will become irrelevant. The only thing that changes is that the Twins might have to pay him a little more, a little sooner. In this era of Target Field and increased financial flexibility, that shouldn’t be an issue. Personally, I’d rather have this organization form a rep as one that rewards players based on merit, not based on the approach that protects their financial interests. Given the questions raised over the past offseason about free agents’ desire to sign here, I think the Twins need to be very conscious of how they’re viewed by players and agents around the league. If Gibson shows signs this spring that he could use a bit more seasoning in Triple-A (which would hardly be shocking) then it would be wise to send him to Rochester for development, and the delayed clock is an added benefit. But if he does enough to convince coaches he’s ready to pitch in the majors, give him a spot in the starting rotation and allow him to begin establishing himself as a big-league ballplayer. The rest, as they say, will take care of itself. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: diamond.jpg The Twins entered this season with a wide assortment of "maybes" in their starting pitching mix, hoping that over the course of 162 games a couple would separate themselves from the pack and become established as sturdy options moving forward. In a transitional year where there was never any realistic expectation of winning, this was truly the overriding goal. The Twins talked about wanting to play meaningful games in September, they talked about wanting to play better fundamental baseball, they talked about wanting to see improvement from the coaching staff and the training staff. But in the end, all that paled in comparison to the need for some positive movement within their ruined rotation. And it didn't happen. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Most of the starting pitching suspects unraveled. Really there was only one case where a borderline pitcher exceeded expectations and positioned himself as an enticing option for next year; that's Samuel Deduno, who has been shut down after struggling through shoulder pain in August and undergoing an MRI that revealed "some issues with his labrum and rotator cuff." (Those are some ominous words for a pitcher.) With the exception of Deduno, no Twins starter has pitched especially well or given any indication that he can be an asset in next year's rotation. And that's a rather disastrous outcome, which serves to hamper the excitement and giddiness we should all be feeling about the upcoming crop of uber-talented position players. Along with the mediocre Kevin Correia -- who, in fairness, has performed slightly better than expected -- the Twins will return an unexciting group of starter candidates next year that includes Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Kyle Gibson, Pedro Hernandez, Andrew Albers, Liam Hendriks and Deduno. Those seven pitchers have combined for a 5.25 ERA in the majors this year, and not one of them has a strikeout rate that is even close to the league average. Each player has his strengths, and might have a chance to be a useful piece in the big leagues. But none deserves anything more than an invite to spring training at this point, and unlike last year -- where at least Diamond and Worley were coming off solid seasons, and Gibson was looking sharp on the comeback path from surgery -- there are no real positives to sell fans on right now. These pitchers are all wild cards who, based on recent results, seem more likely to struggle than succeed. Trying to inspire hope of a turnaround with this group would be unacceptable and inexcusable. I could maybe see the logic in letting these guys compete for one or two spots, with the rest heading to Rochester or moving on, as their production merits. But that leaves an awful lot of uncertainty remaining in the rotation, and as we've seen, it can quite tough to find impact arms to fill those spots. Last offseason, the Twins traded two valuable position players and signed two veteran free agents, and still ended up without anyone that helped them much this year. So what to do now? Well, the front office could take an aggressive approach, ramping up spending to pursue a higher class of free agent while making a few of their coveted assets available in the hopes of luring a near-ready pitching prospect or proven MLB starter. This would actually make a lot of sense, considering they have very few payroll commitments and the system is littered with highly regarded hitting prospects. The alternative would be to stay the course, sticking with the kind of low-upside moves that have become this organization's signature and praying that a few members of the aforementioned group can rise from the ashes of a dreadful 2013 campaign. The Twins can always point to hope on the horizon, bright young arms like Kohl Stewart, J.O. Berrios and Stephen Gonsalves looking promising, but selling fans on a future built around Single-A pitchers won't be easy. In my mind, this is an immensely important offseason for the Twins, and one where the old "business-as-usual" manner of operating will not fly. The storyline entering this winter will be much the same as last year -- pitching, pitching, pitching -- only the pressure will be far greater following a season that has seen too much movement in the wrong direction. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mauer.jpg Much has been made of Twins fans booing Joe Mauer at Target Field this year. Personally, I'm not offended by it. It's how some invested fans choose to express their disappointment and frustration. They paid for the tickets that help pay the players' enormous salaries, so those in attendance should be free to voice their displeasure with what's happening. In this case, it's not totally unjustified. Not that I myself would ever boo Mauer. There have been ball players in this game's long history who have been deserving of booing – scumbags, entitled pricks and racists among them – but No. 7 is not (at least to my knowledge) any of those things. He's a very handsomely paid athlete who is not currently providing the value that the Twins hoped for and expected when they inked him to a $184 million contract extension three years ago. I doubt it's his fault. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It's not like Mauer isn't trying, which is why the booing strikes me as odd. By all accounts, he worked out like a maniac during the offseason, desperate to distance himself from the nightmare season that was 2011. But I do wonder if it's a little too late, and the years of punishment behind the plate have fundamentally weakened him as a hitter. After grounding out three times on Wednesday, Mauer is now hitting .270/.391/.365 on the campaign. That's far from embarrassing, but it's also quite similar to the .287/.360/.368 line he finished with last year, when he admitted he never felt right all season. Last year Mauer totaled three home runs and 15 doubles in 333 plate appearances. This year, at his current pace, he'll have 16 doubles and two homers when he reaches that PA mark. That's a real lack of power, and it stems from an increasingly extreme ground ball rate. His approach at the plate has been excellent. He's striking out at a measly 9.3 percent clip (ninth-lowest in the majors) and he's on pace to draw more than 100 walks. Yet when he puts the ball in play, he rarely does so with authority. His 58.7 percent grounder rate eclipses last year's 55.4, which was at the time a career high. He's still a great, professional hitter, but when I see him now I just don't see signs of the the dominant player who in 2009 hit .365 with 28 homers. I don't even see the guy who in 2010 hit .327 with 43 doubles. It was some hybrid of those models that the Twins hoped they'd be getting at least in the early years of his contract, but right now Mauer appears headed toward rather quickly becoming a first baseman and No. 2 hitter who takes great at-bats and gets on base a ton but doesn't hit for much power or run well. That's not a $23 million franchise centerpiece. It's Doug Mientkiewicz. And that's why the people boo. But Mauer is out there on the field every day, trying to get things figured out, so you won't hear me joining the chorus. Catching for many years takes a toll, even on the most pristine of athletes. I wrote an article last year framed around one of my favorite quotes from Johnny Bench: "A catcher and his body are like an outlaw and his horse. He's got to ride that nag till it drops." Bench was one of many backstops who have either retired early, switched positions or seen their production wane rapidly with age. I'll name another example – one with parallels to Mauer that cannot be ignored: Jason Kendall. Kendall spent the first nine years of his career in Pittsburgh, serving as a full-time catcher and hitting .306/.387/.418 while averaging eight home runs. In 2005, at age 30, he was traded to the Oakland A's, and over the next six years he would hit .260/.333/.318 while hitting eight home runs total. Kendall retired at age 36, which will be Mauer's age when his contract with the Twins is up. Click here to view the article