Nick Nelson

Download attachment: justin-morneau1.jpg August 31st marked the end of an era for the Minnesota Twins. Justin Morneau had been a cornerstone for perennial contenders, and although those days were long past by the time of his departure, the fans never forgot. In the big picture, the decision to trade Morneau was essentially a no-brainer. Still, one got the sense that it didn't come easily. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins were going nowhere, and dealing the impending free agent allowed them to recoup some value while also providing Morneau with the luxury of joining a playoff team. Although the veteran first baseman's performance was nondescript during five weeks with the Pirates, he showed an improved plate approach on a much bigger stage, which might have contributed to his landing a two-year deal with the Rockies earlier this month. In giving up just one month of Morneau's services, the Twins got back Alex Presley, who became the regular in center field and seems likely to maintain that role at the start of 2014. They also got reliever Duke Welker, who they later swapped for lefty starter Kris Johnson. Presley is better suited as a fourth outfielder and Johnson probably won't pitch in the majors unless he can replicate his 2013 success at Triple-A (he went 10-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 135 innings for Indianapolis), but they're still not bad additions to the system. Any glimmer of hope that Morneau might return was extinguished when Joe Mauer was officially tabbed as a first baseman going forward, so Twins fans will have to watch from afar as the longtime staple seeks to rekindle his career in a new setting. He could hardly find a better home than Coors Field to do so. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Perkins.jpg I've tried to rationalize my way out of it. I've tried reconciling the deep divide between my heart and my brain. Truly, it has been one of the most difficult instances of my emotions as a fan clashing with my insights as an analyst. But at the end of the day, I can't escape from what I know deep down to be true: The Twins ought to trade Glen Perkins. And passing on the opportunity to do so could go down as a critical mistake. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It was an excellent article from Dave Cameron on FanGraphs last week that served as the tipping point. In discussing the stated commitments of the Twins and Mets to build around their talented young closers, Cameron points to Joakim Soria as a cautionary tale. The Royals repeatedly refused to shop their elite closer when they had a chance, and ended up getting bitten. Soria never pitched for a good team in Kansas City and the Royals got nothing in return for him when he left because he got hurt. Soria is hardly the lone example; Cameron also points to the top ten under-30 closers from the 2010 season (as ranked by WAR) and finds that -- without exception -- every single one has since lost his hold on the closer role due to performance or injury. Every. Single. One. Even before I came across this column, I was having difficulty convincing myself that trading Perkins isn't the most logical course of action for this rebuilding Twins franchise. The southpaw has emerged as one of the most dominant relievers in the game and his value has never been higher. In addition to carrying the vaunted "proven closer" label, Perkins ranks 14th among MLB relievers in ERA (one spot ahead of Mariano Rivera), seventh in xFIP and 15th in K/9 rate. His contract is extremely team-friendly -- perhaps the best in baseball for a high-end closer. In addition to his flat-out dominance on the mound, Perkins appeals to me as a Twins fan for a variety of other reasons. He's a local guy who grew up in Stillwater and attended college at my alma mater, the University of Minnesota. He's friendly to bloggers and fans. He's hilarious and forward-thinking. He gives back to the community. In many ways, Perkins is the perfect fit in a Twins uniform, which makes this such a sticky issue. But with his value at an all-time high, and numerous contenders in serious need of a lockdown reliever for the ninth, it stands to reason that he could bring in a sizable haul that may supplement multiple areas of need for this retooling Minnesota franchise. How does that weigh against the value that Perkins provides to the team? Right now he's closing out meaningless games for a club headed toward 90-plus losses. When the Twins return to a competitive state -- hopefully within the next year or two -- the closer's innings will obviously become far more important, but we're still talking about a guy who will end up throwing around 65 innings per year if he stays healthy. As we're seeing this season, Perkins is a victim of the institutional suppression of closers, limited to pitching in very specific situations and therefore restricted from helping the team in many times of need. Despite the fact that he is easily the Twins' best pitcher, he ranks seventh among Twins relievers in innings pitched. He also ranks 101st in the majors. Perk is as good as it gets but his impact is severely lessened by Ron Gardenhire's stringent adherence to traditional closer usage (not that this differentiates Gardy from the rest of the league's managers). Obviously, it all comes down to what offers are out there. But if Terry Ryan has a chance to add multiple quality prospects in exchange for a reliever, he may very well regret saying no. History shows that, as phenomenal as Perkins is right now, there's significant risk tied to his future. History also shows that contending teams have a tendency to overpay for closers at the deadline -- look no further than the Twins for a recent example. I'd hate to lose Perkins, and I'm sure Ryan would too. Because of this, I know that a trade won't occur unless an offer really knocks the GM's socks off. If that offer comes, though, Ryan must pull the trigger. It will be the biggest bummer of a season that's been full of them, but this 2013 campaign has been all about present sacrifices for future gains. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Terry-Ryan.jpg Earlier this month, while calling his team's play "embarrassing" (this was before the pitching staff coughed up 39 runs in a four-game sweep at Oakland over the weekend), owner Jim Pohlad expressed his dedication to turning things around, suggesting that he was ready to make a significant financial commitment toward that end. "We made a couple trades last year; I'm not sure that we can rely on that this year," Pohlad told Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press. "So if we're going to do something, it's going to have to be that way (free agency)." [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Pohlad went on to say that the Twins would be willing to spend spend "any amount of money" on a current-year contract for an acquired player, hinting that he'd like to see at least one true impact arm added to help solidify this rotten rotation. Ron Gardenhire also sees a clear need for pitching reinforcements. "I don't think we have enough ready arms to step into this rotation," Gardy recently admitted. "We have lots of candidates. But are these guys ready to turn you around? I don't think so." You can hardly blame Pohlad or Gardenhire for feeling some urgency on this front. While the Twins have limped to three straight 90-plus loss seasons, Pohlad has seen revenues drop along with attendance, while Gardy's job has fallen into danger. The option of staying the course and remaining patient starts to look far less palatable when there's no real progress being shown on the field. And yet, despite the mounting evidence that several individuals within the organization would like to see meaningful steps toward fast improvement, Terry Ryan is singing a very different -- yet familiar -- tune. "If we're going to do anything here (to) succeed in the near and long-term, it's probably not going to be in free agency," said the general manager. So we've got a manager begging for help. An owner in agreement, who says trades are probably not a realistic avenue and that he'd like to see the club spend to add talent from free agency. And a GM, holding all the strings, insisting that he plans to eschew the risk-filled free agent market until the team is closer to where it needs to be. Amidst all this, there's a bevy of money available. The Twins will be as much as $30-40 million below their targeted budget this offseason, and that's before you account for the added $25 million or so in revenue that pours in as a result of the new league-wide media deals. Ryan has not only permission but perhaps even a mandate to open up the wallet and finally bring in some difference-makers for the rotation -- something he clearly failed to do last winter despite his efforts. Will he be willing to set aside the philosophies that he has always embraced, and that he continues to espouse, in order to satisfy the stated desires of ownership, the manager and frustrated fans? Or can he find a way to shrewdly get the rotation on the right track without spending significant dollars? The latter scenario seems unlikely, considering that -- as Pohlad implied -- there aren't many assets to trade, and the last few bargain free agents that the team has signed -- Jason Marquis, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey -- have failed to move the needle. It will be an interesting storyline to follow. This much is certain: Pohlad's lamentations about the club's embarrassing play and Gardenhire's admissions about the current group of pitchers being unacceptable have never rung more true than this past weekend in Oakland, where Minnesota's hurlers were absolutely battered in one of the game's most pitcher-friendly parks (albeit against a quality offense). I'm not a believer that the Twins need to aggressively pursue stars with the goal of contending next year. But there's a large difference between contending and what we've seen unfold here for a third straight year. This is pitiful, completely uncompetitive baseball, and everyone -- from the owner, to the manager, to the fans -- deserves better. Hopefully Ryan can agree with that. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: nick.jpg When he was a clueless freshman attending college at the University of Minnesota back in 2005, Nick launched a Twins blog with a friend, hoping it could serve as a channel for his thoughts on the team as well as an outlet for his writing hobby. Seven years later, the clueless thing hasn't changed,[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] nor has his passion for examining the greatest game in the world. In his analysis, Nick aims to approach topics in an even-handed, professional manner while incorporating the emotions and frustrations of an invested fan. Prior to writing for Twins Daily, Nick authored regular columns at NicksTwinsBlog.com. His work has also appeared on ESPN.com, StarTribune.com, Rotoworld.com, GameDay Program & Scorecard, and various other online and print publications. In his professional life, he's a marketing guy with an acute interest in emerging media. You can follow him on Twitter at @nnelson9. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: josmilpinto.jpg When the Twins dealt away Wilson Ramos in exchange for Matt Capps at the 2010 trade deadline, the after-effects could hardly have been more unfortunate. The Twins fizzled out in the first round of the playoffs, with Capps unable to make any real impact. The next season, Ramos emerged as a Rookie of the Year contender for the Nationals while Joe Mauer's future behind the plate fell into doubt amidst debilitating lower-body injuries. The ill-fated swap had left the organization with an overpriced mediocre closer and no heir apparent should Mauer need to transition away from catcher. Fortunately, the latter ceased to be an issue last year, when the former MVP set a career high in both games played while mostly serving as a backstop. Yet, after being placed on the disabled list this week with concussion symptoms resulting from the beating he took while crouching on Monday night, the wisdom of keeping Mauer at his present position has once again become a topic of discussion. Back at the time the Twins traded Ramos, Josmil Pinto was a 21-year-old with a sub-600 OPS in Low-A. He had previously shown some promise in rookie ball, but his failure to adapt to full-season competition in 2010 and 2011 had the Venezuelan looking like a non-prospect. Over the last two years, however, Pinto's bat has really emerged. He entered the 2012 season with a .256 career batting average, but went on to hit .295/.362/.482 with 14 homers between Single-A and Double-A. Those numbers were mostly accumulated in Ft. Myers, causing some skepticism regarding their significance (he was, after all, older and more experienced than much of the competition), but he backed them up by posting a sterling .308/.411/.482 line in 107 games at New Britain this year, earning a promotion to Triple-A earlier this month. He's the rare example of a prospect who has improved offensively as he has moved up the ladder; his .896 OPS in 119 games at Double-A dwarfs his production at any other level outside rookie ball, and he demonstrated very good plate discipline along the way with 81 strikeouts against 68 walks in New Britain. Since being bumped up to Rochester, he has gotten off to solid start, with a .302 average and five extra-base hits in his first 15 contests. There are still concerns about his defensive chops, but at the very least Pinto's bat looks to be nearly ready. The Aggressive Route Drew Butera is gone. Chris Herrmann is catching less and less. Ryan Doumit is among the worst defensive backstops in baseball. The Twins have a fairly immediate need for a quality backup to Mauer -- and perhaps more than a backup depending on what they decide about his workload behind the plate going forward. Could Pinto be up to the task? It would behoove the club to find out. The 24-year-old might not be an all-world defender but it's tough to imagine he's a whole lot rougher than Doumit or Herrmann, and he possesses plenty more upside than either at this point. There ought to be ample playing time available at catcher in September, because even if Mauer returns quickly the team would be foolish to keep sticking him back there often (or, really, at all) for the rest of this season. Pinto is already on the 40-man roster, so bringing him up would be easy enough. Depending on what he shows during his short audition, he could be positioned to claim a spot on next year's roster, serving in a Doumit-like role where he splits his time between catcher and DH. The Conservative Route The problem with the above approach is that Pinto is still a developing player, and relegating him to a part-time role in the majors when he has only minimal experience at Triple-A could prove detrimental. While his initial production in Rochester has been decent, he has nine strikeouts and one walk, a far cry from the impressive strike zone control he displayed in Double-A. And, of course, he'll benefit from everyday reps behind the plate as he looks to refine his defensive game. I like the idea of Pinto eventually assuming a Doumit type role on the big-league club, but of course Doumit will still be around to fill that role himself next year, at least early on. With that being the case, it makes more sense to start Pinto back in Triple-A, where he can accrue more experience against high-level pitchers while also getting in his needed work at catcher. If he produces, it would make Doumit all the more expendable, and would also give the Twins a nice option to fall back on should anything happen to Mauer. The Likely Route A good argument can be made for aggressively pushing premium prospects like Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer to the majors, but Pinto is not on that tier, and not particularly close. Up until last year, he wasn't really much of a prospect at all, and he still only has his success in Double-A to lean on. Pinto needs extended time in Triple-A to prove that he is ready for the big leagues both offensively and defensively. At the same time, the precarious Mauer situation throws a wrench in this thing. If the Twins were to decide that their franchise cornerstone should be moved away from catcher for his own good, there's no better candidate in the organization than Pinto to replace him as starter long-term. But that brings us back to the issue of player development. It simply doesn't seem prudent to throw Pinto straight into the fire. More than likely he will open the 2014 season back in Rochester and will remain there until he clearly demonstrates his readiness and a need becomes apparent. Should that need become apparent before he's ready, the Twins will probably have to find a placeholder in free agency. Eventually, the hope is that Pinto will make fans forget about Ramos. Certainly Bill Smith would appreciate that. Click here to view the article

Tix For Tots is a great organization with a mission to provide tickets to sporting events, concerts, theater performances and more for kids who can learn and be inspired by these experiences. On Thursday, April 3rd, from 5:30 PM to 8:30 PM, Tix For Tots will be holding its 3rd Annual Minnesota Twins Season Kick-Off Event at Target Field's Metropolitan Club. A featured panel will include former Twins great Jack Morris, Twins EVP of Business Development Laura Day, and (last and least) yours truly. Entry is $50, and proceeds will go to an amazing cause. Tickets are going fast, but you can procure yours here. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In addition to an audience Q&A session with panelists, the event will feature appetizers, wine, a silent auction and more. This a cool opportunity for baseball fans to whet their appetite for a fresh season, and to visit Target Field before the first game is played there. Jack Morris will deliver expert insight as a radio analyst and former player. Laura Day will give a glimpse of the business side of baseball. And I'll field questions about the nature of independent coverage and what we can expect to see from the local nine in this coming season. Please consider joining us next Thursday. It's going to be a really great event, and you'll be helping kids who may not have otherwise had a chance to experience the magic of baseball. Ain't that what it's all about? Click here to find more details and register before it's too late. Download attachment: tix4tots.jpg Click here to view the article

Sponsored by Ticket King [/hr] After wrapping up a road trip within the division, the Twins are back at Target Field this week, opening their homestand with a midweek three-game set against the defending World Series champs. One of the most storied franchises in baseball, Boston is always a hot ticket, and should provide a good test for a Twins team that is trying to fend off regression after an impressive start. Early on, the Sox haven't looked quite as good as they did last year, when they led the American League with 97 wins on their way to a championship, but they're just a couple games behind first-place Baltimore and have plenty of good things going on. Some of those things will seem familiar. Old Friends The Boston lineup features two former Twins who continue to defy age as they make key contributions. Download attachment: ortizflex.jpg One is David Ortiz. We all know the story: As soon as Big Papi left Minnesota he blossomed into one of the best designated hitters in MLB history. He's still getting it done at age 38, batting .267/.370/.481 with seven homers and 19 RBI in 35 games. He has really been heating up in the month of May, with a .308 average and .977 OPS, so Twins pitchers will need to be very careful. Of course, Ortiz anchoring the Boston lineup is nothing new. He's been crushing baseballs at Fenway for more than a decade. We're less accustomed to seeing A.J. Piezynski behind the plate. The veteran backstop chose the Sox over the Twins as a free agent and has started 25 of the club's first 37 games at catcher. Pierzynski's production has been fairly modest -- .277/.318/.396 with three homers and 18 RBI -- but the fact that he continues to catch regularly while holding his own at the plate is impressive. This is a 37-year-old who entered the season with nearly 1,600 career starts at catcher. Boo him all you want; Pieryznski is the model of durability at a position where staying healthy can be tough. What's the Best Ticket? The weather forecast currently looks the same for all three games this week: cloudy and cool, but dry. We're looking at highs in the upper-50s with only a small chance of rain each day. After some of the early-season weather we've seen, I'll take that. Since weather probably won't be guiding your decisions, let's preview the pitching match-ups to figure out which is the best ticket at Target Field against the Red Sox. Download attachment: nolasco.jpg Tuesday's game will have Ricky Nolasco facing off against Felix Doubront. This is a reasonably favorable match-up for Twins, so if you want to take in a win, it's not a bad bet. Nolasco had a forgettable first month with the new cap but has excelled since the calendar flipped to May, with two quality starts and a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio in 17 innings. Doubront has been rocky overall, with a 5.09 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Wednesday's game will be tough. The Twins will send Kevin Correia, who has been brutal. Opposing him will be Jake Peavy, who has been quite effective for the Red Sox despite some control problems. This is a big game for Correia, who's got to be on thin ice. I think my favorite pick for this series is Thursday's tilt. It's a day game, so it will likely be the warmest of the three, and you'll get the chance to see Minnesota's best (and hottest) starter on the mound. Phil Hughes has been outstanding over his last four starts, in which he's 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA. Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz has been off-and-on this year, but usually more off than on as illustrated by a bloated 6.44 ERA. Boston's a strong team, no doubt. But their only visit to Target Field this year comes with good timing. In this series, the Twins will miss arguably their two best starters (Jon Lester and John Lackey). [/hr]With their rich tradition and star power, the Red Sox are always a team that baseball fans go out of their way to see when in town. Through Ticket King, you can find some great values for this series. I'm seeing tickets as low as $4 for Tuesday night's contest. There are some lower-deck seats in the $20-30 range for Wednesday night. And there are tons of tickets under $10 for Thursday's game if you can skip out of work early. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article

Without exception, each spot on a team's 25-man roster is important. In any given week, it is likely that every last one of those players will see action in a game. On a contending team, all 25 openings should ideally be filled by guys who can play a meaningful and valuable role. Those roster spots can also be used to protect assets. A rebuilding team might choose to put a Rule 5 pick in the last bullpen slot, or stash a project who's out of options at the end of the bench. What is puzzling is seeing a future-focused team such as the Twins using its 25-man roster spots in a way that could only be described as haphazard. In their ongoing mission to reassemble veterans who took part in their last successful run, the Twins have repeatedly cast aside young players with potential long-term value in order to roster aging players in decline. First, there was Jason Kubel, who essentially beat out Chris Parmelee despite a poor 2013 and a mostly unimpressive spring. In fairness, that move didn't work out too badly, as Parmelee slipped through waivers. Kubel made good on the decision with a fast start, but he has fallen apart at the plate (28 strikeouts in his last 63 plate appearances) while Parmelee is raking in Triple-A. It's not clear that the correct decision was made here, but it was understandable and nothing was hurt at the end of the day. Giving a roster spot to 34-year-old Jason Bartlett, under the pretense that he'd be an asset as a play-anywhere utilityman despite having no history of doing so (not to mention being a year removed from playing), was much harder to figure. That blunder did hurt. Bartlett looked terrible, got hurt and retired. In order to stage this fiasco, the Twins waived and lost Alex Presley, who -- while no great shakes -- happened to play at a position where Minnesota has turned out to be dreadfully thin. And so we all stared apprehensively at Matt Guerrier's opt-out date on the calendar. To be clear, I have nothing against Guerrier. I liked him when he was here, and he can probably be a perfectly decent middle reliever. But that's no given, considering he's 35, and is coming off a bad year, and wasn't particularly impressive during his warm-up stint in the minors. Download attachment: guerrier1.jpg On Thursday, the Twins called up Guerrier to avoid having him opt out of his contract. To make room for him, they didn't need to waive anyone from the 25-man roster, but they did send down Logan Darnell after a strong debut, and they had to outright pitching prospect Brooks Raley, who was snatched up by the Angels. I'll be honest: I don't know much about Raley. I've maybe seen him pitch twice. I know he's a big, hard-throwing lefty with some control problems and mixed results in the minors. But I also know that he's a full decade younger than Guerrier, and that the Twins liked him enough to claim him just a few months ago. The signings of Kubel, Bartlett and Guerrier seemed fine during the offseason because there is no inherent risk in non-guaranteed minor-league deals. But when the Twins are exposing and losing young, cheap players left and right in order to give these guys chances, all the appeal is lost. If you're going to fill these spots with veterans, why screw around with reclamation projects? Why not spend the money to sign established quality players? This is what's frustrating about the Twins. In many respects, they still operate like a penny-pinching, cash-deficient franchise trying to uncover hidden values that have been overlooked by the rest of the league. Too often they've whiffed on these projects, and the upside -- now and going forward -- with a player like Guerrier isn't great enough to be dedicating playing time and a roster spot to him over younger players with real long-term upside. I have a hard time wrapping my head around what the vision is here. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: tyler-beede.jpg A top five pick in the MLB draft is a blessing and a burden. Getting it right can mean the addition of a franchise-altering talent. Getting it wrong can be very, very costly. Will the Twins stake their future on a pitcher as erratic yet electric as Tyler Beede? Who is this guy? Beede has been one of the elite young arms in the nation for some time now. In 2011, he was drafted 21st overall by the Blue Jays, who went far over slot and offered $2.5 million to the 18-year-old righty from Massachusetts but were still spurned, as Beede would not budge from a colossal $3.5 million asking price. He was the only first-round pick not to sign that year. While this might seem like greed to some, I think the more accurate depiction is of a talented young man with a full ride to Vanderbilt, who would only let a completely outrageous offer woo him away from such an opportunity. After a rocky freshman year, Beede settled in as Vanderbilt's ace as a sophomore, going 14-1 with a 2.32 ERA while averaging more than a strikeout per inning. Though his W/L and ERA regressed this year as a junior, he improved his walk rate and continued to miss plenty of bats. ESPN.com's prospect guru Keith Law came away extremely impressed after watching Beede pitch against Stanford in March, concluding that "it's hard for me to imagine that he's not a top-five pick." Why the Twins will pick him It's not hard to see the allure. Beede has a prototypical pitcher build at 6'4" and 215. He lives on a powerful fastball that clocks in the mid-90s, and he complements it with a strong changeup and a sharp curve that he has sometimes struggled to harness. You can never have enough quality arms, and Beede would fit nicely into the organization's timeline, joining Kohl Stewart and J.O. Berrios as premium young pitchers who will be scheduled to arrive in two or three years. Why the Twins won't pick him A consensus mock draft list compiled this week on SB Nation averaged out the results of six different expert mocks and had Beede going to the Rays with the 20th overall pick. Even Law, who was clearly quite high on Beede earlier in the spring, has said more recently that he expects the righty to go in the second half of the first round, citing shaky command in the latter part of the college season. While he's got ample ability, the inconsistency in Beede's track record makes it difficult to justify him as a top five pick. His stuff is plenty good but he has too often been unable to control it, and although the Twins have a good record of helping pitchers iron out control issues, that's probably more risk than they're willing to take on when picking this high. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: dancing-turkey.jpg Looking over the front page of the Star Tribune's sports section on Thanksgiving morning, I couldn't help but notice the irony. The top story: Pat Reusse's annual "Turkey of the Year" column, in which the longtime scribe called out Terry Ryan as the top goat in Minnesota sports for the past year. Just below, also above the fold, was the headline, "Pitcher Nolasco headed to Twins," with a subhead indicating that the pitcher had been signed to a record $49 million deal. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Reusse's selection was certainly justified when you look at the last year as a whole. Following a disastrous 2012 season in which the starting rotation was a complete mess, Ryan signed only low-end free agents and wound up with a team that showed no improvement. By continuing to rely on the same low-strikeout hurlers while the league has trended more and more toward power arms that can miss bats, Ryan has indeed looked at times like the game has passed him by. Or, as Reusse puts it, a "dinosaur." The signing of Nolasco is anything but business as usual for Ryan and the Twins. Not only does the total amount shatter the previous franchise benchmark for an external free agent (Josh Willingham's $21 million contract), but the timing of the move is also telling. Aside from Jason Vargas, who inked a weird four-year, $32 million deal with the Royals, Nolasco is the first free agent pitcher to sign a long-term contract (three or more years) this offseason. Rather than waiting for the market to develop, as they've pretty much almost done, the Twins went hard after their top target and made him an offer that convinced him he wasn't going to get more money by waiting around. Talk about uncharacteristically splashy. To be clear, Nolasco is not an elite pitcher. He's not going to single-handedly turn the team around and he's not likely to be the best member of a good staff. There will be plentiful analysis of his strengths and weaknesses here at Twins Daily in the coming weeks. But the bottom line, for now, is this: Outside of Matt Garza, Nolasco was arguably the best pitcher available on the market among those who won't require a draft pick or colossal posting fee to sign. Given the club's reluctance to delve into those areas, Nolasco may have been the best realistic option for the Twins. And Ryan got him signed before Thanksgiving. There's more work do be done, but for now, with a large segment of the fan base voicing the same dejection toward the front office as Reusse, this is a loud statement that could have hardly come at a better time. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mauer.jpg The Twins have played 18 games this year, and Joe Mauer has been in the starting lineup for every single one. That's right – you might not have noticed, but the embattled catcher has not taken a day off this season after missing half of the 2011 campaign due to various ailments. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This is the longest Mauer has even gone into a season without stopping to rest, and it's not like the early schedule has been particularly forgiving, with only one day off and plenty of travel. Granted, Mauer has been catching much less frequently than normal -- he's been behind the plate for only 10 games -- but nevertheless, this iron man stands in stark contrast to the guy who last year drew the ire of media, fans and reportedly even some teammates for his inability or unwillingness to stay on the field. It seems that No. 7 is making a statement. Fortunately, his bat is starting to back up that message. Mauer stumbled out to a slow start, batting .242 with a .675 OPS and nearly as many GIDP (4) as RBI (5) through Minnesota's first nine games. Since the start of the Yankees series, however, Mauer is hitting .382/.475/.471 with three doubles and five walks. He's stopped putting everything on the ground and he's even stolen a couple bases – an indication that his legs are feeling pretty good. He's struck out just three times in his past 46 plate appearances. Mauer's overall production hasn't been extraordinary, but it's extremely encouraging to see him pushing his batting average up over .300 and consistently taking quality at-bats. April is historically one of his quieter months, so if he can continue to heat up as the weather does the same, he could find himself once again grouped with the league's top hitters. The Twins have already had plenty of things go wrong this year, but getting Mauer back on track was always the top priority. It appears that he's well on his way, and Ron Gardenhire deserves credit for moving him around and keeping him fresh enough to take the field each day. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hicksswing.jpg Since returning to the minor leagues after his demotion in early August, Aaron Hicks has batted .417. Well, from the right side anyway. Unfortunately, he's only had 12 at-bats from that side because in Triple-A, like in the majors, the vast majority of pitchers are right-handers. And righties force the switch-hitting center fielder to the opposite batter's box, where he has posted a miserable .287 OPS in Rochester. Yuck. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Overall, between the majors and minors this year, Hicks has hit a respectable .239/.313/.451 as a righty and a dreadful .172/.240/.275 as a lefty. That's a difference of 250 points in OPS, and the stats are backed up by observational evidence. Hicks is natural right-handed hitter who took up switch-hitting in high school, and his swing is clearly far more smooth and strong from the right. Yet, the composition of pitchers in the league has him swinging from his far weaker side more than 75 percent of the time. This year has been such an utter disaster for Hicks that the Twins need to consider shaking things up to get him back on track. Eliminating his switch-hitting approach would be drastic and would essentially call for reinventing him as a hitter, but the need to do so is becoming increasingly apparent. Last year, at Double-A, Hicks acquitted himself quite well from the left side, hitting .287/.393/.434 for an .828 OPS that was nearly on par with his outstanding .881 mark from the right. But in previous years the outfielder has consistently struggled to inflict damage against right-handed pitchers, leading to his drop-off on prospect lists (Hicks went from being ranked the No. 19 prospect by Baseball America in 2010 to No. 72 this spring). In 2011, at Ft. Myers, Hicks batted .230 and slugged .356 from the left side, as opposed to .263 and .401 from the right. In 2010, at Beloit, he hit .248 and slugged .339 from the left while crushing to the tune of .362 and .664 from the right. His inability to hit with authority against righties certainly helps explain the slide in prospect status over the past three years, and was extremely evident during an ugly rookie season in the majors. Ostensibly, batting lefty against right-handed pitchers is beneficial for Hicks, providing him with a better look at incoming pitches. But his inferior swing from that side seemingly negates any gained advantages. It's really difficult to imagine him performing worse against righties while swinging out of the right-handed batter's box. How much worse can it get? The list of players who have given up switch-hitting this deep into their careers is rather short. The Orioles talked about doing it with 28-year-old former Twin Alexi Casilla earlier this season, but it never happened. Implementing such a dramatic change for a player who has been playing the game a certain way professionally for six years is an imposing proposition, and perhaps the adjustment would be too daunting for the Twins to even attempt, but it is frustrating seeing Hicks' offensive game so limited by being forced to take the vast majority of his at-bats from an unnatural and inferior stance. Click here to view the article

The trade deadline is coming up next Tuesday, so this weekend should be an eventful one filled with rumblings and rumors. You'll likely hear a number of different teams connected to the Twins, who are among a handful of clubs around the league that can identify themselves as surefire sellers. In the weeks leading up to the deadline, we've put together a series of Trade Target Team Profiles, outlining the needs of various contenders as well as what they might have to offer to a rebuilding Twins franchise. As a resource for you in the coming days, we've listed each installment of that series below. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] San Francisco Giants (NN) St. Louis Cardinals (SS) Los Angeles Angels (NN) Boston Red Sox (JB) Washington Nationals (PH) Baltimore Orioles (SS) Pittsburgh Pirates (JB) Cincinnati Reds (SS) New York Yankees (NN) Atlanta Braves (JB) Los Angeles Dodgers (JN) Texas Rangers (SS) Toronto Blue Jays (NN) Philadelphia Phillies (JB) Feel free to use the comments section here to discuss any updates on the teams listed above (or fringe contenders like the A's and D-Backs, who could be surprise buyers), or to predict where the Twins' top trade chips will end up. Download attachment: spanruns.jpg Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hughesdelivers318.jpg It was only a minor-league start against Single-A hitters, but still the reviews of Phil Hughes on Tuesday were glowing. "I thought he looked really good, really sharp," said assistant GM Rob Antony. "Hughesy threw the [expletive] out of the ball," said Ron Gardenhire. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] There's a palpable buzz surrounding Hughes this spring. If you ask anyone who's been down here for positive signs they've seen in a camp that has featured its fair share of negative ones, the newly acquired free agent is sure to be among the first names mentioned. Sure, Hughes has put up good numbers -- he tossed six scoreless frames Tuesday and has allowed just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings over three Grapefruit League starts -- but what matters is how he's looked while putting up those numbers. And by all accounts he has looked great. The velocity on the fastball is there. The curveball is moving well and hitting its spots. Opposing hitters are walking away shaking their heads. "He hides the ball well and can move it all over the place with a really nice, sharp breaking ball," Gardenhire said. Although Ricky Nolasco was the banner signing of the offseason, Hughes was the one that stood out most to me. When you can get a 27-year-old former top prospect with major-league success in his track record on a three-year deal at a relatively modest salary, it's a coup even if he's coming off a down season. While Nolasco, at 31, is at an age where decline could soon become a factor, Hughes is in the midst of what is considered his physical prime. He's only 16 months older than Kyle Gibson, and the hope is that those two can become mainstays in a rebuilt rotation that might finally experience some year-to-year stability. The Twins also hope that Hughes can be part of the pitching staff's transition away from absurdly heavy contact tendencies. Last year Twins starters struck out only 12.4 percent of opposing batters. That's the lowest number for any MLB team since 2006 and it left the club with almost no chance of success in run prevention. Over the last four seasons, Hughes has struck out 19 percent of the batters he's faced. You can tell by watching him that he attacks and looks for the punch-out, especially with two strikes. While his K-rates are about average by MLB standards, he should help the Twins move the needle solidly in the right direction. It's been said before, but the move out of New York -- away from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and the power-packed AL East -- figures to benefit Hughes immensely. He's the kind of high-upside free agent play I've long yearned to see from the Twins. Will it work out? Impossible to say at this point. But the signs are very positive. Click here to view the article

A year ago, Vance Worley came to camp and impressed coaches enough to earn an Opening Day assignment. The right-hander carried hefty expectations, having been acquired as one of the main pieces in a trade that sent Ben Revere to Philadelphia and left the Twins without a clear center fielder (an quandary that, as Seth discussed yesterday, still persists). This year, Worley arrives in Ft. Myers under a much different set of circumstances.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Following a disastrous first year in Minnesota, he's already fighting for his job, facing the possibility of winding up in the bullpen or on the waiver wire. Worley is just one of several hurlers who will need to step up and prove himself this spring in order to earn another crack at the Twins' rotation, and that is very much by design. Download attachment: worley.jpg The Twins hoped that Worley would join up with Scott Diamond, the only holdover from a mostly wretched 2012 starting corps, to provide stability at the front end of the rotation. In '12, both Worley and Diamond had achieved strong results, but last year their contact-heavy ways came to a head and the result was an endless barrage of hits as the two young hurlers combined to allow 231 hits in 179 innings. Both pitchers are still 27 or below, with MLB success not so far off in the rear view mirror, and it seems that both struggled last season at least in part due to physical limitations that should be lessened this time around. As you may recall, both pitchers were coming off supposedly "minor" elbow procedures in the previous offseason, and during the summer Worley -- who appeared somewhat heavy and sluggish to begin with -- battled shoulder soreness that ultimately led to his season being cut short in July. Worley's transformed physique has been an early talking point in Ft. Myers this month, as the righty reportedly showed up about 25 pounds slimmer than he did a year ago. He's more than ready to put last year behind him. Diamond has similar plans, and will be going head-to-head with Worley to lock up the final remaining spot in Minnesota's rotation. They'll both need to get past Samuel Deduno, who clearly outperformed them in 2013 but now may face physical limitations of his own. All three are intriguing to a certain degree, and all three are out of options, so this roster battle figures to rank as the most prominent in camp. Who's going to come out on top, and why? Let's dig in. Why Worley Will Win As mentioned before, the Twins made a significant investment in Worley and clearly viewed him pretty highly when they billed him as their No. 1 starter to open the season last year. He certainly lost a great deal of his luster with one of the most brutal pitching performances of any MLB starter, posting a 7.21 ERA and 1.99 WHIP before retreating to Triple-A, but he's still only 26 and if you subtract 2014 from the equation he's got a stronger overall track record than his competitors. While both Diamond and Deduno were essentially non-prospects who had been overlooked in other organizations and bloomed late as big-league pitchers, Worley reached the majors at age 22 and put up a 3.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 238/97 K/BB ratio over 277 innings in his first three seasons with Philadelphia. Those are quality numbers that gave every indication Worley could at least emerge as a decent mid-rotation starter in the American League. That upside remains, even if local fans saw nothing resembling it last season. The fact that he has apparently arrived this year in better shape and with greater resolve has to be viewed as an encouraging sign. Of course, he'll have a lot of work to do over the next six weeks in order to reenter the team's good graces. Why Diamond Will Win In 2012, Diamond established himself with a breakout season in which he was successful in many key areas that the Twins emphasize -- namely, he threw strikes (1.6 BB/9 rate) and kept the ball down (53 percent grounder rate and 17 homers in 173 innings). Because he conformed to the club's mold so well, it was no surprise that he was named as the only incumbent with a guaranteed spot in the 2013 unit. It's also no surprise that he was given an extended leash despite his inability to come close to replicating those results. The lefty delivered quality starts in four of his first five turns, and then everything fell apart. He coughed up six earned runs in back-to-back starts in mid-May and never really rebounded. His overall numbers in 2013 were bad, but when you take out his first five outings they are truly eye-popping: in 101 innings over his final 19 starts, Diamond went 5-14 with a 6.13 ERA, .881 opponents' OPS, 19 homers allowed and a 37/33 K/BB ratio. The aspects of his game that ingratiated him to the coaching staff in the previous season were nowhere to be found. Now, sandwiched between his ugly results in 2011 and 2013, Diamond's best season looks like an outlier. Still, the skills he displayed in 2012 won't be forgotten, and now that he's gone through a normal offseason with no surgery, the Twins will be eager to see if he can bring those back to the table, especially as the only left-handed candidate for a rotation spot. If he falters in exhibition play, Ron Gardenhire may opt to keep him around as a secondary lefty specialist in the bullpen behind Brian Duensing rather than expose him to waivers. Why Deduno Will Win Relative to the other two contenders in this race, Deduno was phenomenal last season. In 18 starts, he posted a 3.83 ERA while coughing up just seven homers in 108 innings. But whereas Diamond's successful 2012 campaign followed the Twins' blueprint to a tee, Deduno's approach fell on the opposite end of the spectrum; rather than hitting spots with precision, the Dominican relied on his unpredictable scattershot fastball and kept batters guessing along with his own catchers. The result was very little solid contact but also many stretches of poor command that led to extended innings and outings. With that being said, his control was vastly improved from previous years, suggesting that Rick Anderson was able to break through with the 30-year-old to some extent. Based on merit, Deduno should be the favorite in this competition, and if all things were equal he probably would be. But he underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in September and that might put him behind Worley and Diamond. Deduno has already thrown several bullpens and says he's good to go, but we'll see how sharp he looks when he takes the mound in a game. The effectively wild right-hander already walked a thin line, so if his pitches are moving a little less, or if his control deteriorates back to 6.0 BB/9 territory, he'll have a tough time coming out on top. Why To Keep An Eye On Others As things stand, there's only one rotation spot available and -- barring multiple injuries or total meltdowns -- one of the guys above is essentially guaranteed to end up in it. The Twins simply aren't the type of team to give up on a pitcher with potential value if they don't have to, and they can afford to be patient with youthful candidates such as Kyle Gibson, Alex Meyer and Trevor May. However, as we all well know, injuries tend to strike in spring training. There's a decent chance that one of the four veterans expected to open in the starting five -- Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey -- will be unavailable once the start of April rolls around. That would open the door for one of the aforementioned prospects, or another dark-horse contender such as Kris Johnson, Brooks Raley or (my preferred option) Anthony Swarzak. Click here to view the article

Prior to the start of the season, I called Jamey Carroll "the latest passenger on Minnesota's never-ending shortstop carousel," noting the position's instability over the past decade. As it would turn out, the veteran's ride didn't last long, as he ceased drawing regular starts at short by early May. Granted, this had as much to do with external factors – most notably Danny Valencia's struggles at third – as Carroll's own play. But it quickly became apparent that the light-hitting 38-year-old is not suited to be a quality regular at this point in his career. Even in the short-term, the Twins knew they would have to look elsewhere for a fixture at shortstop. They would like it be Brian Dozier. More accurately, they need to it to be Brian Dozier. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Shortstop has been an organizational problem spot for many years, and the lack of talent at the position throughout the Twins' system is nearly as stark as the lack of pitching. Dozier is no great prospect, but he appears to be the club's only hope for respectability in the foreseeable future. Download attachment: dozier.jpg There's little hope in the minors. The Twins drafted Levi Michael, a shortstop from the University of North Carolina, with their first-round pick last year but he's currently hitting .203/.306/.259 as a 21-year-old in Single-A. His initial struggles as a pro don't doom him by any means, but they do make it highly unlikely that he'll rise fast enough to be a factor for the big-league club anytime soon. With Tsuyoshi Nishioka basically out of the picture (he's batting .202 in Triple-A), Michael is the only shortstop of note on the farm. Free agency probably won't cure this epidemic; that's where they found Carroll, who has been a disappointment and remains under contract for $3.75 million next year. Clint Barmes, another relatively affordable free agent shortstop who ended up signing with the Pirates for $10.5 million over two years, has been even worse than Carroll, as he's currently hitting .170 in Pittsburgh. It's tough to find good shortstops. That's been a hard-learned lesson for the Twins, who have opened with seven different players at the position over the past eight years and let the best of the bunch get away when they misguidedly handed J.J. Hardy to the Orioles after the 2010 campaign. With all the headaches and frustration that Ron Gardenhire and his staff have experienced while trying to settle on a serviceable player to man the diamond's most important position, you can bet that they will show plenty of patience with Dozier as he takes his lumps. He's is doing so right now, with just 10 hits in his last 55 at-bats (.182) and 16 strikeouts against one walk during that span. Parker wrote yesterday about the adjustments being made by the league against him. I suspect that Gardy will keep writing the rookie's name into the lineup despite his struggles, and that's the right approach. At age 25, it's time for Dozier to sink or swim, and this season gives the coaching staff an opportunity to let him do so without risking much. If Dozier can't make his own adjustments and prove himself as a legitimate big-league option, it'll be back to the drawing board. And considering the last eight years, that's a scary proposition. Click here to view the article

Unanimity. That's something you don't come across too often. When Greg Maddux's name came up on the Hall of Fame ballot last month, he did not gain unanimous induction despite being one of the most obvious Hall of Famers ever. When Joe Mauer was the clear-cut best player in the league in 2009, he was not the unanimous choice for MVP. Opinions are subjective, and in any vote or ranking, there are bound to be dissenters. Except when it comes to naming the current best prospect in baseball. In that case, the answer is essentially indisputable. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Byron Buxton has earned that billing from MLB.com, ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America will surely follow suit later this month. Download attachment: top-prospects-01-byron-buxton.jpg Last week, Marc Normandin of SB Nation published a column that heaped effusive praise on Buxton from a wide variety of sources. This passage provides a scout's perspective on the young outfielder's physical abilities: No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. No prospect is a sure thing. Sorry, I just had to grind that back into my brain. Because when you take a hard look at Byron Buxton -- his statistics, his physical prowess and the immense respect he's gained from normally reserved prospect analysts everywhere in just one full season -- it can be easy to forget. Batting Last year Buxton was a 19-year-old getting his first taste of full-season ball. He absolutely dominated, hitting .334/.424/.520 between Low-A and High-A while totaling 19 doubles, 18 triples and 12 homers in 125 games. At the plate, he was the full package. Disciplined, difficult to strike out and a nightmare after putting the ball in play. His bat speed is tremendous, his approach highly advanced. He'll face another big challenge when he makes the jump to New Britain this spring, but there's little reason to expect anything other than success against Double-A pitching. Throwing It's well known that, in high school, Buxton could crank it up to the mid-90s as a pitcher, and he mowed down the opposing lineup in a championship game his senior year. We'll never know what kind of future he might have had on the mound, but his powerful arm is still a very nice asset in the outfield. With top-end strength and accuracy, Buxton can control the opponent's running game once he reaches the ball. Which tends to happen pretty quickly… Running He's fast. If you haven't seen Buxton go from first to third before, it is something to see. His speed receives the highest rating on every scout's scale, because he is quite simply one of the fastest players in pro baseball. This pays dividends in many ways. Last year, between Low-A and High-A, he stole a whopping 55 bases on 74 attempts. That's a 75 percent success rate from a teenager who was by and large trying to run (with extreme frequency) against older and more experienced batteries. For the sake of comparison, Ben Revere -- one of the quickest players I've ever seen -- maxed out at 45 steals in a minor-league season. Buxton's blazing speed aids his offensive game in other ways, enabling him to beat out infield grounders and take extra bases routinely (his total of 18 triples demonstrates that well enough). Fielding That speed also allows the young center fielder to cover vast real estate in the outfield. When a Cedar Rapids game was televised on Fox Sports North last June, viewers were treated to a spectacular play in which Buxton sprinted backward and dove with full extension to haul in a seemingly uncatchable drive near the warning track. That's par for the course. In his article linked earlier, Normandin relays a quote from ESPN.com's MLB draft insider suggesting that Buxton could play "upper-echelon defense in center" if he went straight to the majors right now. He turned 20 two months ago. Power Of Buxton's five commendable tools, this is the one that's probably least developed, which is saying something considering that he racked up 49 extra-base hits and 12 homers in 125 games last year. Most analysts believe that he'll only increase his drive distance as he ages and adds mass, giving him the potential to be a perennial 30-homer threat in the majors. Even if he never reaches that level of long ball proclivity, Buxton's wheels will still get him around the bases plenty often. The Bottom Line Universally regarded as the best and most well rounded prospect in baseball, Buxton gives Twins fans reason to be absolutely giddy about the future. He carries all the prospect luster of a Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, and maybe more. Buxton still has plenty to prove. Again: No prospect is a sure thing. But this might be the closest we've ever seen, even as a 20-year-old who hasn't played above Single-A. He possesses such a deep, transcendent set of skills that even if certain aspects of his game don't fully translate to the majors, he should still end up being a highly valuable player on both ends of the field, with potential outcomes that range from occasional All-Star to annual MVP contender. Click here to view the article

Over the past few days, two pitchers that the Twins have been connected to at various points ended up signing with different teams. Darren Wolfson reported over the weekend that the Twins were interested in Joe Saunders, but the veteran left-hander agreed to terms Tuesday with the Rangers. And Johan Santana, who has of course been linked throughout the offseason to his former club, chose to sign a minor-league deal with big bonuses in Baltimore. A few fans may have been miffed to miss out on these hurlers -- if only for past achievements and nostalgia -- but the truth is both would have been buried by the sudden depth in Minnesota's starting corps. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now, to be clear, I'm not saying that's necessarily great depth. There are a lot of question marks and none of them have been cleared up by a few Grapefruit League games. But Santana and Saunders aren't exactly great options at this point either. And maybe it's that good old springtime optimism shining through, but I feel pretty decent about what the Twins have going on in the rotation right now. Even if you consider regression to be inevitable for Kevin Correia, who, sadly, led last year's staff, there are some nice upward trends to be found here. Ricky Nolasco has been average for most of his career, but is coming off one of his best years, and average ain't so bad all things considered. Mike Pelfrey pitched pretty well in the second half of 2013 and is only getting sharper as he moves further away from Tommy John surgery. I love getting the chance to see what a 27-year-old Phil Hughes can do outside of New York. Samuel Deduno was electric last year and is by all accounts fully recovered from September's shoulder surgery. Download attachment: worley.jpg And here's another guy that I'm really starting to warm up on: Vance Worley. No one expected things to go the way they did last season for Worley -- least of all the Twins, who tabbed him as their Opening Day starter. But even looking beyond the change of scenery, he had a lot going against him. He was coming off elbow surgery, he was probably a bit heavier than he wanted to be, and for some or perhaps most of the season he was bogged down by shoulder problems. His 2013 campaign was unbelievably bad, but Worley had a strong track record beforehand. He's still only 26, he's in much better shape, and John had very positive things to say about his first spring start. We're all just hoping Worley can emerge as a decent fifth starter here in camp, but he's got a chance to be more than that. He has been more than that. Looking past the veterans up front, you've got some intriguing arms ready to join the mix. Alex Meyer, Kyle Gibson, Trevor May, Sean Gilmartin and Brooks Raley are all better talents than the Twins had available to them when the high-level depth broke down last year. Would adding Santana or Saunders to that group have really changed much? If anything, it might have taken away opportunities from younger guys who probably deserve them in a season where "figure out what you've got" is likely to be the chief objective (hopefully with more conclusive results than the last couple years). It's true that you can never have too much pitching. But the Twins have quite a bit at this point, and I'm excited to see how it all shakes out. Yes, excited. I'm not even down in Florida yet and already spring's getting the best of me. Click here to view the article

Age: 23 (DOB: 10/2/89) 2012 Stats AA: .286/.384/.460, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 100 R, 32/43 SB ETA: 2013 When it comes to physical tools, Aaron Hicks is tough to top. A muscular 6'2" outfielder with tremendous speed and an arm so strong that many teams considered drafting him as a pitcher, he's the type of player scouts salivate over. Will the production match the athleticism? That's a question that has followed him throughout his career as a pro, which hasn't been without its warts.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After repeating a season at Low-A in 2010, the switch hitter fell off the elite prospect map by scuffling through his '11 campaign in Ft. Myers, batting just .242 with a .722 OPS and flailing from the left side of the plate. Last year he came roaring back, dominating the competition at Double-A with a performance so strong that he's back on the national prospect scene and suddenly in position to win a starting position on the major-league roster out of spring training. The Good During his professional debut in 2008, the 14th overall pick displayed an auspiciously advanced approach at the plate, drawing 28 walks against 32 strikeouts in 45 games in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League as an 18-year-old. As he's risen through the ranks, his bat has lagged at times but the uncommon adeptness for taking walks has always remained intact. In five minor-league seasons, Hicks has drawn free passes at a 15 percent overall rate. For comparison, the uber-patient Joe Mauer walked at an 11 percent rate in his brief minor-league career and has been at 12 percent in the majors. Check out Hicks' year-by-year league ranks in the BB% category: 2010: 17.0% (5th in Midwest League) 2011: 14.8% (5th in Florida State League) 2012: 13.9% (3rd in Eastern League) In the three seasons where he's had enough at-bats to qualify, Hicks has been among the five most patient hitters in his league, and in nearly all cases he's been younger than anyone surrounding him on the leaderboard. His ability to take pitches and coax walks is a vital skill that allows him to get on base even when his batting average slumps. His overall OBP in the minors is .379 and he's never posted a mark below .353. Hicks' bat has been somewhat slow to develop, as he batted just .266 with 25 home runs in his first four seasons as a pro, but year represented a major breakout. If the .286/.384/.460 line with 13 homers as a 22-year-old doesn't blow you away, consider that the average batter in the Eastern League was 24.5 years old and hit .260/.330/.392. Hicks ranked fourth in the EL in OPS and was younger than any other player in the top 18. He tied for the league lead in triples (11) and ranked third in stolen bases (32). It was a monster season. That's not even accounting for his defense, which was typically fantastic in center field. Hicks covers tons of ground with his high-end wheels and has a cannon arm that tops the scales for many scouts (no surprise, given that he pitched in the high 90s as a prep). He's a huge defensive asset, which substantially magnifies the value of everything he provides on offense. With his consistently strong on-base skills, his speed and his ability to hit from both sides, Hicks profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter – a big part of the reason he seems like an appealing option for this year's Twins team. If his increased power and his improved proficiency against right-handers last year both prove legitimate, he could easily develop into one of the most well rounded center fielders in the major leagues. The Bad The weaknesses in Hicks' offensive game have been distinct. No. 1 on that list is strikeouts. Although he's drawn walks at an outstanding clip throughout his career, Hicks has also whiffed quite a bit, with three straight 100-K seasons. Overall, he's struck out in 20 percent of his plate appearances as a pro and that has taken a toll on his batting average; he hasn't approached .300 since his debut in rookie ball. Hicks batted .251 in his first turn at Low-A in 2009 and .242 in his first turn at High-A in 2011. Last year's .286 mark was certainly an improvement, but was buoyed by a .346 BABIP. As long as he keeps piling up strikeouts, Hicks will have a tough time mustering strong batting averages in the majors, which would limit his offensive upside. There's also the matter of hitting from both sides of the plate. Up until last year, the outfielder really struggled from the left side, and that's an issue when the vast majority of pitchers will push him into that batter's box. A natural righty who took up switch-hitting as a sophomore in high school, Hicks himself admitted to Baseball America in 2011 that he doesn't generate the same pop swinging lefty, though he added that he "sees the ball better and gets better at-bats from the left side." His splits last year were much more balanced, and we can hope that's a sign of things to come, but I suspect that holding his own against right-handers will be one of Hicks' toughest hurdles as he adapts to the majors. The Bottom Line No. 3 is higher than you'll see Hicks on most lists, but personally, I'd make a case for ranking him even higher. His combination of skills is rare, and he delivered a major statement with his performance in the Eastern League last year. It wouldn't surprise me a bit of he were a Rookie of the Year contender with the Twins this season, nor if he ultimately goes down as the best in a long succession of quality Minnesota center fielders. [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #10: Max Kepler] [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #9: Trevor May] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #8: J. O. Berrios] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #7 Eddie Rosario] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #6 Kyle Gibson] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #5 Alex Meyer] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #4 Oswaldo Arcia] View full article

Download attachment: momoney.jpg After reaching agreement on one-year deals with their three arbitration-eligible players late last week, the Twins now have a clearer idea of where their spending commitments for the coming season currently stand. As Jeremy Nygaard's invaluable Roster & Payroll page shows, the club's estimated 2014 payroll now sits at $83.4 million with the updated arbitration figures factored in. To some, that number may feel unsatisfactory, given that it's not a sizable increase from last year's mark and isn't likely to rise much. But it's a step in the right direction, and right now that's important. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] What was bothersome about the approach last offseason, from my perspective, was not the final payroll figure, which settled around $75 million -- but that it was a decrease of nearly $40 million from two years prior. In that case, the lack of spending hinted at a lack of belief in the product. And while you can argue that was well warranted based on the outcome of the season, it still stung to see the team address a blatantly horrendous rotation by signing two of the cheapest free agents and adding a mid-rotation NL starter through trade. Even though they were shedding big chunks of payroll and still enjoying the fresh revenue streams of Target Field, the Twins weren't making significant investments in improving the roster. That cannot be said this time around. The Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes contracts were definitively aggressive moves. They rank as the two largest free agent contracts in franchise history and they remain two of the most lucrative handed out in baseball this offseason, with the high-end pitching market dragging along. Add in the Pelfrey deal, and you've got three contracts signed this winter that are larger than any from last offseason. While that hasn't resulted in a major payroll spike overall, it reverses a three-year trend of declining spending, and most importantly the club maintains considerable flexibility going forward despite entering several multi-year pacts. I know there are some people who are disappointed to see the Twins' payroll still sitting below $85 million despite an infusion of new revenues entering the mix this year, but they've already spent significantly on overhauling the rotation. And while the lineup currently looks far from stellar on paper, I can see the logic in holding off on signing more players to supplement that unit; simply put, almost every position on the field is either occupied by a promising young talent or will be soon enough. Spending big money on stopgaps might make sense for a contender, but not for a team coming off a third straight 90-loss campaign. And because they're still at least $20 million below what should be considered their true spending cap, the Twins will have the ability to add salary -- either through in-season trades or offseason acquisitions -- pretty much at will to supplement their emerging core. That is a very favorable position, and one that all fans should be celebrating rather than lamenting. Click here to view the article

Terry Ryan is acutely aware of how difficult it is to acquire front-end starting pitching. After trading Denard Span for Alex Meyer a year ago, he explained the logic behind giving up an established major-league regular for a player who hadn't yet played above Single-A, noting that with potential No. 1 starters, "Sometimes you've got to get them when they're in the early stages of their pro career or you aren't going to get them, period." He's right. Once a high-end pitching prospect reaches Triple-A or successfully transitions to the majors, he becomes exceedingly tough to pry away from his organization, because there's basically nothing more valuable in baseball than an inexpensive starter that you can slot near the top of your rotation. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins acquired an exceptional talent in Meyer, and paid a substantial price to do so, but also took on significant risk because the right-hander had made only 25 professional starts and was still multiple levels away from the majors. As Ryan noted, that's just the way you have to play the game unless you're looking to spend exorbitant amounts in free agency (as the Ddogers did last year with Zack Greinke) or give away a massive prospect haul (as the Royals did with James Shields). The only other ways to bring in a potential ace from the outside are to get creative or get lucky. The Twins have certainly accomplished the latter in the past (see: Johan Santana in the Rule 5 draft) but you can't count on that. I like creative solutions, which is why I'm very intrigued by Oakland's Brett Anderson. Download attachment: Brett-Anderson-Oakland-Athletics.jpg A former second-round draft pick, Anderson rose rapidly through the minor-league ranks, peaking as Baseball America's No. 7 prospect before he debuted in the majors at age 21 in 2009. In his first two seasons with the A's, the left-hander posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 225/67 K/BB ratio over 287 innings. Those are superb numbers, particularly when you consider his age and experience at the time. Unfortunately, Anderson was limited to 19 starts in 2010 by a forearm strain, setting off a depressing string of injuries that sent his promising career into a spiral. As is all too often the case, the forearm issue proved a precursor to Tommy John, which the southpaw underwent midway through the 2011 campaign. He spent most of 2012 recovering from the surgery, returning late in the year with strong results, though an oblique strain ended his season a bit prematurely. In 2013, Anderson appeared poised to make his triumphant return to the scene, but after six appearances he went down with an ankle injury that later turned out to be a stress fracture in his foot, costing him nearly his entire season. He returned in the final month and pitched exclusively out of the bullpen the rest of the way. With only 163 innings combined over the last three years, Anderson is an enormous durability risk. It's hard to know where he's at right now because there's just not much to go on in the way of recent performance. He's also owed $8 million next year with a $12 million option for 2015. Given that they made the playoffs without him this season (and just signed Scott Kazmir to a two-year contract), the A's may feel motivated to move Anderson and his salary commitment. So it's no surprise that they are rumored to be floating him. It goes without saying that Anderson is far from a sure thing at this point. But there are a few key points to keep in mind when assessing his situation. 1) He has already undergone Tommy John surgery, so his elbow should theoretically be good to go. 2) The ailments that have bothered him since that surgery -- an oblique strain and a foot fracture -- are non-arm injuries that don't figure to be long-term concerns. 3) He's still only 25. That last point is a big one. Anderson is a former top prospect who was at one point viewed as one of the finest young hurlers in the game, and he's still in his mid-20s. His circumstances have diminished his potential market, and while Billy Beane isn't exactly the type to give anything away, this is a situation where you could gamble on a special talent without selling the farm. Make no mistake... it definitely is a gamble. But with their deep farm system, their growing stable of backup-option starters and their dire need for upper-echelon pitching talent, it's one that the Twins are positioned as well as anyone to take. They are rumored to be one of the teams that has inquired about the southpaw, so we'll see if anything progresses next week when Ryan and Beane are both in Orlando for the Winter Meetings. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: parmeleepolanco.jpg On Monday night at Target Field, the Twins will play their 81st game, officially marking the halfway point of this 2014 season. As we reach this key milestone, the state of the club can best be summed up by a lineup decision that took place in game No. 80. In the final leg of a six-game road trip, with the Twins trying to snap a five-game losing streak, Ron Gardenhire inserted Chris Parmelee as his center fielder and No. 3 hitter. Now, I don't want to contribute to what could probably be described as a generally overblown reaction to this move. From my view, it was a defensible experiment by Gardenhire to try and coax some offense out of his lineup and pull his team out of the doldrums. But man, it sure says a lot about where this team is at right now. It's a statement about the condition of center field, a position that is so beleaguered by injuries and poor performance that the manager was willing to stick a slow-footed corner outfielder out there despite having one previous inning of MLB experience at the spot. Parmelee is probably least suited to play center out of anyone who's been there this year, and that's really saying something. It's a statement about the condition of the third spot in the lineup, which has yielded a sub-700 OPS in the first half thanks in large part to the struggles of longtime staple Joe Mauer. The lineup as a whole had averaged less than three runs per game in the past four series, prompting the manager to think outside the box. This was Parmelee's first career start batting third. And, on the bright side, it's a statement about Parmelee himself. Here's a 26-year-old former first-round pick who was designated for assignment at the end of spring training, only to go unclaimed by every other team and wind up in the minors. I was pleased that Parmelee was able to remain within the organization, and sure enough he rebounded with a strong showing in Triple-A, earning his way back to the big leagues where he's suddenly got one of the hottest bats on the club. After dropping five of six on their latest tour through the AL West, the Twins find themselves six games below .500 and eight back from the first-place Tigers. While they're still at a point where they could push themselves back into the mix with a strong stretch heading into the All-Star break, the Twins appear to be fading in much the same way they did a year ago. On June 20th last season, the Twins were 33-36, just three games below .500 after sweeping the White Sox at home. Three weeks later, on July 14th, they were 39-53 heading into the break, with all the talk surrounding which parts could be sold off. This year, on June 22nd, the Twins were 36-38, two games below .500 after -- yes -- sweeping the White Sox at home. And now they're on a slide that looks disturbingly similar to the one that pushed them directly out of contention a year ago. Obviously Gardenhire and the Twins are very serious about not allowing that to happen again, as illustrated by the Kendrys Morales signing and borderline desperation moves we're seeing with the lineup, but circumstances continue to tie their hands. The rotation reinforcements that appeared to be ready to make an impact are now a ways away, with Alex Meyer struggling and Trevor May on the disabled list. Oswaldo Arcia is a mired in a terrible ongoing slump. Danny Santana, who has been one of the team's biggest bright spots this year, is hurt with an unclear timeline to return. So as much as Gardenhire might want to shake things up and look for any possible way to get this thing back on track and avoid yet another midseason meltdown, at this point really all he can do is hope. Hope that the barrage of unfortunate injuries comes to an end. Hope that Mauer continues to heat up and become the lineup anchor that we know he can be. Hope that Trevor Plouffe can come back and provide a much needed jolt, with guys like Arcia and Morales joining in. We've still got half a season left, but with the All-Star Game (and, subsequently, the trade deadline) approaching, the Twins are going to need to figure out their identity. In that respect, it could be said that the next couple weeks will be the defining point in their season. [/hr] Since the Twins snapped their losing streak with a win over the Rangers on Sunday, you can get half off your L or XL pizza from PapaJohns.com on Monday with the promo code 'TWINSWIN'! Click here to view the article

Download attachment: hicks.jpg Out of the 276 major-league players that accrued 300 or more plate appearances last year, Pedro Florimon and Aaron Hicks ranked 257th and 261st in OPS, respectively. Although they made up for it somewhat with strong defense at key positions, both were among the worst hitters in baseball, so it was puzzling that the Twins entered this season without much in the way of backup plans at either shortstop or center field. Unfortunately, Florimon and Hicks have both been offensive liabilities early on, and their lackluster production now has the club scrambling for potential replacement options. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Florimon showed little with the bat last season; this year, he missed half of spring camp and didn't hit when he started playing. That has carried into the regular season, where he's batting .150 with a .469 OPS through 16 games. Hicks, trying to rebound from a disastrous rookie campaign, once again excelled in spring training and has once again gone flat in the regular season. Entering Sunday's game against Kansas City, he had been hitting the ball into the ground in 58 percent of his at-bats. He proceeded to tap into three more ground ball outs from the left side in an 0-for-4 effort that dropped his average to .167. In 36 at-bats as a lefty hitter, Hicks has three hits -- all singles. Although he's reading pitches a bit better, his swing from that side of the plate continues to look hopelessly ineffective. He's not driving the ball or generating any lift. The Twins will give him every chance to find himself at the dish, but patience does appear to be wearing thin. They were unimpressed enough with Darin Mastroianni -- who hasn't been the same since last year's foot injury -- that they designated him for assignment and claimed Sam Fuld, who himself had been the victim of a 40-man roster squeeze in Oakland. Fuld is an excellent defensive player but he's been a pretty lousy hitter, with a .233/.312/.334 line in 373 MLB games. It sounds like the Twins want to use his lefty bat some against right-handers, spelling Hicks from his weaker side, but Fuld has a .637 career OPS against righties. Needless to say, assistant GM Rob Antony's statement that he hopes Fuld can "add a little life to the offense" is a damning indictment that speaks only to how lifeless Hicks' bat has been. The same can be said of a similar quote Antony had about the acquisition of Eduardo Nunez, who came over from the Yankees in return for minor-league pitcher Miguel Sulbaran. "We believe he's an upgrade over some guys we have," Antony said of Nunez, which again speaks to the sad present state of the position in question. Nunez has a career OPS+ of 87, meaning he's been well below average, and he's also reputed as one of the worst defensive infielders in the league. It's not hard to see why the Yankees were willing to part with him, yet he still might be the most feasible replacement if Florimon continues to contribute nothing offensively. At shortstop, Florimon is a standout defender on a unit that has looked quite shaky at times. That's earning him some extra leash, just as Hicks' youth and ability have done for him in center. But ultimately if these two don't find some semblance of a rhythm at the plate, the Twins will have to look elsewhere. As their recent moves suggest, right now they don't like what they're seeing. ~~~ Since the Twins were able to avoid a sweep by thumping the Royals on Sunday, you can get 50% off a L or XL pizza from PapaJohns.com all day Monday if you use the 'TWINSWIN' promo code. Or maybe you've got a free pizza coming? On Monday morning we'll be drawing and announcing 10 winners for our Pizza Party contest, so if you participated, check in to see if you're among the recipients of a free dinner. Click here to view the article

After it was announced on Sunday that he'd been promoted to Double-A, 20-year-old Miguel Sano became the center of attention in the Twins' farm system. That lasted less than 24 hours. On Monday afternoon, the Cedar Rapids Kernels -- Minnesota's Low-A Midwest League affiliate -- had their game televised on Fox Sports North. Although it was an off day for the Twins and the Kernels have numerous quality prospects on their roster, the real reason for this unusual occurrence was obvious. This was all about Byron Buxton, who was the topic of conversation for nearly the entire three-hour broadcast. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: byron-buxton.jpg Playing under the brightest spotlight of his life, Buxton lived up to the hype and then some. He did so many incredible things in this one game that it's difficult to pick a highlight. There was the bases-loaded double, crushed off the wall in left-center, that plated three runs and broke the game open early on. Then there was the triple a few innings later, where Buxton reached out and -- seemingly without exerting much effort -- stroked a ball about 350 feet into right-center field, then sped around to third base in roughly half a second. Buxton's quickness between bags made it easy to see why the Star Tribune's Jim Souhan remarked, after studying the meteoric prospect last month for a column, "He goes from first to third like he knows a shortcut." Overshadowing Buxton's heroics at the plate and on the base paths were his efforts in center field -- particularly one diving catch at the warning track that was legitimately one of the finest you will see on a baseball field all year. On this particular day, all the outfielder's vaunted five tools were on display. The ease with which he, as a teenager, is handling his first hack at full-season ball nearly defies belief. Buxton appeared to be on another level from his competition Monday and his overall numbers reflect that. He leads the Midwest League in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging. He's among the top five in walks, stolen bases and RBI. He has scored 60 runs; the next highest total in the league is 42. We haven't seen this kind of utterly dominant performance in the minors since… Oh yeah, that Sano guy. He's no stranger to the spotlight, having been the subject of a popular documentary before taking American baseball by storm. Sano put forth an incredible performance in the Midwest League last year, bashing 28 homers with 100 RBI in 129 games. Now he has followed that up with a ridiculous showing over the first two months at Ft. Myers. Not only did his 1.079 OPS lead the Florida State League by more than 100 points, it was also higher than any mark that's been posted in the FSL since 1999. The prodigious Dominican was labeled a Top 10 prospect in the game prior to the season by Baseball America, and has only raised his stock with an historically amazing first half at High-A; now he becomes baseball's youngest player at the Double-A level. Yet, there seems to be a consensus that the more well-rounded Buxton has surpassed him as a prospect. When Buck inevitably gets the call to Ft. Myers -- probably a matter of days, not weeks -- he'll once again steal all the buzz. That doesn't exactly seem fair for Sano, who's doing everything right, but it's a sign of the times. The Twins currently feature two of the game's most spectacular young talents. In fact, rarely has any organization ever had two such players rising through its system simultaneously. By the end of the year Buxton and Sano have a legitimate chance to rank No. 1 and 2 on many national prospect lists. A rebuilding franchise could hardly ask for a better one-two punch than that. Click here to view the article

The vibe down here in Ft. Myers is that the pitching will definitely improve this year. Although Vance Worley's ugly outing on Tuesday may still be fresh in your mind, various coaches and media types have commented on how sharp guys like Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Nolasco have looked. Kyle Gibson and Samuel Deduno have both been cruising. There's less confidence that this club is going to score enough runs. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Last year, the Twins tallied 614 runs to rank 13th in the American League. While they made large investments in the pitching staff during the offseason, their moves to address the offense amounted to getting rid of Justin Morneau ad Ryan Doumit -- who ranked second and third on the team in homers with 17 and 14 -- and bringing in a few rebound candidates on minor-league deals, along with light-hitting catcher Kurt Suzuki. Losing the possibility of a midseason impact from Miguel Sano hurts. In order to field a decent lineup, the Twins are counting on several players to either bounce back from down years (Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel, Aaron Hicks) or take the next step (Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, Josmil Pinto). That's not necessarily a reliable recipe for success. So let's get creative and take a look at some things the Twins could do to boost their offensive potential. Dozier Back to Short? It's been discussed before but can't be ignored. Brian Dozier played shortstop almost exclusively while coming up through the minors, and after a brief stint there in the majors in 2012, he was moved over to second base, where he has excelled. Yet, the Twins have some second basemen coming up through the minors who can hit. Eddie Rosario will be back from his suspension in a couple months, and Jorge Polanco figures to start this season in High-A. At shortstop, there's less to be enthused about going forward. Projected starter Pedro Florimon is essentially a lock to turn in an OPS around .600, and despite all the spring hype surrounding Danny Santana, he has a .712 career OPS in the minors and is erratic defensively. How nice would it be to slide Dozier -- who led the club in homers with 18 last year -- over to short, and finally have an offensive threat at the position for the first time since J.J. Hardy's departure? I asked Dozier about that possibility on Wednesday, and he insisted he's "extremely comfortable at second." However, he didn't say he'd rule out such an idea. "Obviously if they (Gardenhire and Terry Ryan) came to me and wanted me to play another position I'd be all ears," he said. "But for now I'm strictly second." Clearly Dozier would be a defensive downgrade from Florimon, and until Rosario is ready there's not even an obvious replacement available at second base. But it's a lot easier to find guys who can hit there than at shortstop, and from my view Dozier didn't look terrible defensively at short when he first came up. Ultimately, the Twins might have to make some hard choices and figure out what they're willing to sacrifice to improve the offense. Utilizing Pinto Initially my thought was that if Josmil Pinto wasn't going to be the regular starter at catcher, the Twins would be best served sending him to Triple-A so he can get regular at-bats. Now, I'm starting to think that they'd be better off keeping him in the majors and finding a way to get his potent bat into the lineup as much as possible. The best approach might be having Pinto start at catcher a couple times a week -- something like a 40/60 time share with Kurt Suzuki -- and having him fill in at DH against righties. This would help out with another key objective: Shielding Kubel From Lefties Asked about how he's felt facing lefties this spring, Jason Kubel said it's "coming along." But you can't ignore the numbers; the 31-year-old has had a rough go against southpaws over the course of his career and it's been especially bad lately. The Twins will be best off maximizing Kubel's greatest strength -- hitting righties -- and minimizing his greatest weakness. Whether that means platooning him with Pinto or someone like Chris Colabello, it'd be nice to see Gardenhire find a workable solution. Finding a Backup Infielder With a Stick After starting his spring with a mind-boggling 0-for-26 slump, Jason Bartlett finally got his first hit on Wednesday. Clearly the veteran's inability to so much as sneak a grounder through the infield or drop in a bloop single over so many plate appearances was a bit of a fluke, but there's not much reason to believe his offensive struggles in general have been a mirage. This is a guy who sat out last year after hitting .241/.310/.317 from 2010 through 2012. I didn't really expect the Twins to make any big offensive additions during the offseason but was disappointed that they didn't add an established bat to the infield mix. There will surely be some intriguing names hitting the waiver wire here as spring training winds down, and it won't be hard to find a guy with more punch than Bartlett. As things stand, the Twins are heavily relying on Dozier and Plouffe to provide production in the infield, and if one should fail or get injured, there's not much to fall back on. Download attachment: plouffedozier319.jpg Signing Kendrys Morales Over the last two seasons, Morales has hit 45 homers and driven in 153 runs. Willingham is the only player on the Twins roster who can match either of those numbers, and it's solely because of his big 2012 campaign. I'm not convinced that Morales is worth giving up a draft pick to sign, but he's still sitting in free agency and would probably come pretty cheap. What are your ideas to deliver a jolt to this lineup? Share in the comments section. Click here to view the article