Nick Nelson

Download attachment: cole.jpg The Minnesotan, Golden Gopher alum and baseball fan inside me all want to see Cole DeVries succeed in a Twins uniform. The analyst inside me knows that he probably won't. DeVries is a great story. He was signed by the Twins as an undrafted free agent back in 2006 after a solid career at the University of Minnesota, and has gradually worked his way up the organizational ladder. On Tuesday, the 27-year-old was called up to the majors to fill Jason Marquis' vacant roster spot. He'll make his big-league debut on Thursday in a start against the White Sox. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The soft-tossing right-hander's minor-league track record is far from spectacular. In six seasons, he has gone 32-42 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He has proven extremely hittable in the high minors, allowing 413 hits in 366 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. That's an average of 10.2 H/9 – not exactly a change of pace for a Twins team that currently leads the American League in hits allowed. DeVries hangs in the mid-80s with his velocity and has largely survived by peppering the strike zone, especially this year as he's issued only seven walks in 46 2/3 innings for Rochester. MLB hitters are likely to tee off on his brand of soft serve, so I suspect his stay in the Twins' rotation will be short. Nevertheless, it's cool to see him get a chance to pitch on the big stage and perhaps – like Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters before him – he can catch an unfamiliar league by surprise and conjure up some good results for a desperate staff. Click here to view the article

Despite the fact that more than half their games have been on the road and five of their seven series have been against clubs that finished with winning records last year, the Twins are above .500 after 21 games. They've managed to win despite starting pitching that has been astonishingly bad. Nearly everyone expected improvement from the rotation after large offseason investments were made, but so far the Twins have gotten a 5.91 ERA from their starters, a regression from last year's 5.26 mark. The key to the early success has been outscoring the opposition, specifically by getting on base more often. This was well exemplified in Thursday's series-clinching victory against the Rays. Three of the first five hitters to face Erik Bedard reached on a free pass, and all three ended up scoring to give Minnesota a lead it would never relinquish. As we approach the end of April, the Twins are leading the Majors in walks taken. This continues a shift toward increased plate patience that we've seen in the past few seasons. As you can see below, the lineup has been gradually reshaping its reputation. Here are their MLB ranks in walks since their postseason run began in 2002: 2002: 25th 2003: 20th 2004: 17th 2005: 19th 2006: 22nd 2007: 19th 2008: 22nd 2009: 12th 2010: 8th 2011: 27th 2012: 10th 2013: 7th 2014: 1st During their glory years, the Twins frequently had one of the better team batting averages in the league, but they almost always ranked in the bottom half in terms of walks. The lopsided philosophical emphasis on limiting walks for pitchers versus a lack of emphasis on drawing walks for hitters always seemed to represent a blatant contradiction in the coaching staff's approach. The Twins have always viewed the base on balls as a dangerous weapon for the opposing offense, but consistently failed to deploy it as a featured component of their own offensive attack. Now they are, and it's paying off. One of the central concepts in sabermetrics is that the most important aspect of scoring runs is getting on base. The Twins are reinforcing that now. They currently rank second in the American League in scoring despite ranking eighth in batting average and 10th in slugging. But thanks to their propensity for drawing the free pass, they lead the league in on-base percentage. The high volume of base runners has created plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Obviously guys like Chris Colabello, who leads the AL in RBI, have been taking advantage, but as a team the Twins are hitting only .256 with runners in scoring position. The bottom line is that if you put enough men on base, you're going to score runs, even if your lineup lacks a bunch of dominant hitters. Is the increase in walks reflective of the Twins embracing this notion? Tom Brunansky, who took over as hitting coach last year, was a guy who relied on the free pass during his playing days, helping him put together an impressive career as a batsman despite a .245 lifetime average. When you consider that the Twins have had their two highest MLB ranks for walks in the last 13 years during Brunansky's two years as an instructor, it's hard to downplay his influence. Download attachment: Dozier.jpg That's especially true when you look at some of the specific examples. Trevor Plouffe, who has struggled with plate discipline for most of his career in the Majors (and Minors, for that matter) has 14 walks in 21 games and a .412 OBP. Brian Dozier had a 7 percent BB rate during his first two years with the Twins; he's at 16 percent early this season. Perhaps the most noteworthy is Josmil Pinto, a rookie who entered this season with only 40 games played above Double-A. He's drawn walks in nearly a quarter of his trips to the plate (22.5 percent), which not only gives him the team lead but ranks second in the majors behind Jose Bautista. As spring came to a close, it was clear that the Twins weren't going to dominate offensively based on talent alone. Under such circumstances, a good team with smart coaches alters its overall approach to gain advantages in other ways. That's what we've seen from the Twins. Brunansky, the rest of the coaches and certainly the hitters themselves deserve a lot of credit for that. Hopefully they can continue to utilize that edge this weekend against the Tigers, who (somewhat surprisingly) have the fourth fewest walks of any AL team. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: deduno.jpg An updated glance at the Twins' starting pitching depth chart, with a couple weeks remaining in the season. Barring any major developments over the rest of the month, this is how we view the team's SP pecking order heading into the offseason: 1. Scott Diamond. He's gone through some struggles recently, with a 6.64 ERA over his past four starts, but that was to be expected. In addition to the fact that he was bound for some regression, he might be wearing down with 183 innings pitched this season. Nevertheless, he's clearly at the head of the pack. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 2. Sam Deduno. Against all odds, the 29-year-old continues to turn in quality starts despite an ugly 48-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio. After tossing a dud against the Rangers on August 24, he's bounced back with a 1.80 ERA in three starts since. Most impressive, he's struck out 18 and walked only six in 20 innings during that span. 3. Cole De Vries. He's done for the season after suffering cracked ribs on a comeback line drive last week, but De Vries has seemingly positioned himself well by turning in a solid 4.11 ERA and backing it up with decent peripherals (outside of his ugly homer rate). Still, it's difficult to trust his stuff. 4. Liam Hendriks. The rookie's path to becoming a better pitcher is clear: attack the strike zone more and bring down that .350 BABIP. He's continued to struggle in both areas since rejoining the rotation, but at least he's dialed down the long balls since his earlier stint. 5. P.J. Walters. After a fairly impressive stretch earlier in the year, he spent two months on disabled list and in two starts since returning he has been flat-out terrible. Still, his performance when healthy should be enough to merit another shot in Rochester next year. 6. Esmerling Vasquez. His strong performance in Triple-A earned him a September call-up, but two putrid outings since joining the Twins – in addition to the fact that he's been used almost exclusively as a reliever in the minors lately – confirm what we already thought: he's not equipped to start in the bigs. --- 7. Kyle Gibson. Among pitchers not currently in the rotation, Gibson has to be the most likely candidate to claim a spot out of spring training next year. He pitched well in a short minor-league rehab stint this year and will hopefully be fully on track after throwing in the Arizona Fall League. 8. Brian Duensing. His struggles as a starter (6.92 ERA) and success as a reliever (2.98 ERA) should have the Twins convinced of what his role needs to be. 9. Anthony Swarzak. Like Duensing, Swarzak is clearly meant to be pitching out of the bullpen. He's a useful long reliever but nothing more than an emergency spot starter. 10. B.J. Hermsen. Dark horse for a rotation spot next year? Probably not, as the Twins aren't apt to rush young prospects, but the 22-year-old's long track record of success – which continued this year as he posted the fifth-best ERA in the Class-AA Eastern League despite younger than anyone in front of him – cannot be ignored. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: yunelescobar.jpg In their blockbuster trade with the Blue Jays earlier this week, the Marlins acquired a player who has been discussed in some circles as a potential target for the Twins: Yunel Escobar. The 30-year-old shortstop is coming off a rather tumultuous year in Toronto, but there's no denying that he's got some legitimate talent, which has been in short supply at the shortstop position here in Minnesota. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Interestingly, the Marlins won't be using Escobar at short; instead they'll plug in young Adeiny Hechavarria, also acquired in the deal. The plan for now is to shift Escobar over to third, but Miami is reportedly open to flipping him and his $5 million salary. If he's available at a reasonable price, the Twins would have to at least consider. With a .282/.353/.390 career hitting line and very solid defense, he would represent a clear upgrade at a very problematic position, and he's under team control at a reasonable price through 2015. However, acquiring him also might require the Twins to go against their long-standing philosophy of focusing on character and clubhouse chemistry. I haven't met Yunel Escobar personally so I can't say with certainty that he's a bad dude, but he has a reputation as a malcontent and it didn't help that this season he was suspended for having hateful, homophobic language painted on his face during a game. Perhaps the Twins should welcome an opportunity to shake up their standards. By all accounts, the teams of the last two seasons have been filled with nice guys, but nevertheless the results were lousy. Maybe it's time for this front office to start focusing solely on production and on-field value, while dealing with auxiliary issues as they come up. Does Escobar provide enough on-field value to make pursuing him worthwhile? That's a very fair question in light of his performance this year. But as Terry Ryan and Co. make their evaluations, I hope they won't rule him out simply because of attitude problems. It's time to start prioritizing the quality of the product on the field over the climate in the locker room. Click here to view the article

After seeing the two starters who were supposed to serve as veteran leaders in the rotation exit after recording only 12 outs on successive nights, it's not hard to understand why the Twins have been carrying 13 pitchers on the roster for much of the year. What is hard to understand is why, with all these different relief slots, and with so many different guys being shuffled in and out, the Twins still haven't been able to find room for Anthony Slama on the major-league roster.Download attachment: anthonyslama.jpg [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Slama has clearly never been held in particularly high esteem by the organization, despite his dazzling numbers in the minors. He owns a lifetime 2.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and he has averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings at every single level, yet he's been mired in Triple-A for four years and at age 28 he has logged only seven MLB innings. The knocks against Slama are that his control isn't very good and he's weak against left-handed hitting. Those things both may be true, but neither precludes him from being a useful big-league reliever. His numbers in Triple-A are absurdly dominant. In 133 1/3 total innings for Rochester, he has registered a 2.36 ERA and 161-to-66 strikeout-to-walk ratio, yielding only 87 hits. This year, he has struck out 43 percent of the batters he's faced while posting a 0.59 ERA as the Red Wings' closer. Although he's been able to consistently overcome his flaws and decimate hitters at every level of the minors, the Twins simply do not seem to view him as a guy who can make an impact at the next level. Apparently, they're not alone. At the end of last season, Slama was removed from the 40-man roster and exposed to waivers. Nobody claimed him. I presumed at the time that both the decision to outright him and the lack of interest from even reliever-needy bottom feeders stemmed largely from elbow problems that ended his 2011 campaign in August. Yet this year, the side-arming righty has shown no ill effects from the injury – he's been nearly unhittable. So at this point Slama is healthy, averaging almost two strikeouts per inning in Triple-A, and 28 years old. Oh, and there's an open spot on the 40-man roster. In this lost season, it's baffling that the Twins aren't interested in taking an extended look at what the guy can do against big-league hitters. If control is his biggest problem, why not make him a project for Rick Anderson? What is there to lose? Slama's stuff might not be especially great, but I have an exceedingly difficult time believing that a pitcher can overpower hitters to that degree at the highest level of the minor leagues and stand no chance of providing value in the majors. Give him a chance. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: shaun-marcum.jpg Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported via Twitter on Tuesday that the Twins have "checked in" on right-handed pitcher Shaun Marcum. This isn't really noteworthy, since Terry Ryan has already told reporters that he's been in contact with the agents for every free agent starter, but Marcum's name in particular is an interesting one. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Most of the pitchers that the Twins have been specifically connected to thus far – names like Joe Blanton, Brett Myers and John Lannan – are the usual suspects: bargain bin hurlers with middle-of-the-rotation upside and out-of-the-rotation downside. (Of course, "bargain bin" might be a misnomer in this market, even if it includes names like those.) But of course, if they want to even feign contention next year, the Twins are going to need to land at least one guy who could conceivably perform at the level of a No. 1 or No. 2 above Scott Diamond. And given the need to fill multiple rotation spots, they're going to have to find a way to do it without coughing up the vast majority of available funds on one player. So it is easy to see why Ryan might view someone like Marcum as his best bet to land a potential high-end guy, especially with Dan Haren now off the table after signing a one-year, $13 million deal with Washington. Haren was available at a relatively low guaranteed sum due to concerns about the condition of his arm, and the same will likely be true for Marcum. He missed about two months this season due to elbow soreness, which has been a problem for him in the past. (He missed the 2009 season due to Tommy John surgery.) Marcum pitched very well around that injury, turning in a 3.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 109-to-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 124 innings. In the prior two seasons, he had totaled about 200 innings each with a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP overall. Since his surgery, he's been consistently effective on the mound. He strikes people out at a solid rate, throws it in the zone and is quite tough to hit (.241 career OBA). Based on the numbers Marcum looks like a slam-dunk, but that vague elbow tightness from this past summer is concerning, especially for a club that has seen no shortage of arm injuries and is looking for reliability above all else in its additions to the rotation. Of course, the elbow issue could also be a blessing in disguise, because it might be just enough to scare away contending teams from matching a high offer. If the Twins are able to sign Marcum and he stays healthy, he's a legitimate centerpiece to the rotation. Spending fairly big bucks on that gamble is… well, a gamble. But in this environment, what isn't? Click here to view the article

Here at the All-Star break, the Twins find themselves 11 games out of first place, with a record 13 games below .500. The most likely scenario is that they sell off their assets within the next couple weeks and coast to a forgettable finish near the bottom of the division. But just what would it take for the Twins to surge back to the top of the division here in the second half? Anyone would have to admit that it's still possible, if extremely improbable. We've seen this team make up some significant deficits after the break in years past under Ron Gardenhire. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: shooting_star.jpg Below, I've listed out a few things that, in my mind, would have to happen for the Twins to pull off their greatest turnaround yet. Feel free to add your own thoughts in the comments section. (And, please, no "It's not going to happen" responses. The unlikelihood is obvious.) 1) Come out of the break on fire. The trade deadline is only two weeks away, and with a double-digit deficit in the standings, the front office will have no choice but to sell. Without the likes of Francisco Liriano and others, they team will be dead in the water. If, however, the Twins can rattle off a bunch of wins in short order – including dominating key series against the White Sox and Indians – Terry Ryan may be compelled to keep the gang together and see what they can do. 2) Dominate the division. I hinted at this above, but the Twins would really need to lay the hammer down on divisional opponents. They're 11 games behind and trailing four different clubs, so with 77 games remaining there is little margin for error. They probably can't afford to lose a single series against Chicago, Detroit or Cleveland. 3) The White Sox must fall. Quietly, the Sox have turned into one of baseball's finest teams. Their 47-38 record ranks as sixth best in the majors, and they've been on a tear lately winning 11 of their last 15. If Chicago wins 90-some games, the Twins won't be catching them. Similarly, the Twins need the Tigers and Indians to remain lukewarm in the final months. 4) Starting pitching must lead the way. Shockingly, the Twins got three good starts against an offensive powerhouse in Texas heading into the break. Yet, their starters still own the worst ERA in the American League. Minnesota will need to win at a .650+ clip from here on out to have a chance; they simply won't be doing that without vastly improved starting pitching. 5) The bullpen can't slip up. It seems we might already be seeing some signs of the bullpen's heavy workload over the first half catching up. Given the aforementioned slim margin for error, the Twins can't really afford to let late leads slip away like they did in Texas over the weekend. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: lirianosmile.jpg This week's series against the first-place White Sox will serve as a tough test for this Twins team. They've rebounded after a lousy start to go 13-10 over their last 23 games, remaining on the periphery of an AL Central race that no club seems poised to run away with. In three days, the Twins could conceivably be within 5.5 games of first place. They could also find themselves out of it by double digits. Perhaps no one will be under a bigger microscope in this crucial showdown than Francisco Liriano.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] He's been great since returning to the rotation at the end of May, posting a 2.67 ERA and 35-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 1/3 innings while allowing only one home run, but his opponents in those five starts have been the Athletics, Royals, Cubs, Brewers and Pirates. Those teams rank 28th, 19th, 25th, 10th and 29th in the majors in OPS, respectively. Liriano has been feasting on weak competition, for the most part, and on Monday he'll be matching up against a first-place team with a starter in Jake Peavy who has been flat-out excellent all year. It would be a stretch to say the Twins are even on the fringes of contention at this point, but they're not out of it. Climbing back into the mix would require a continued transformation from the rotation, and Liriano will need to be one of the guys leading that charge. Both he and the team will have a chance to make a statement at Target Field on Monday night. Click here to view the article

After finishing 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in Sunday's sweep-clinching win over the White Sox, Oswaldo Arcia ran his hitless streak up to 31 consecutive at-bats. As Phil Miller noted in his post-game wrap-up, that's eight short of the franchise record. For all his talent and explosiveness, Arcia has proven to be a slump-prone hitter, with a tendency to look totally lost during extended stretches at the plate. Right now, he's mired in what I have to imagine is one of the worst funks of his life. It's not just the lack of hits -- it's the intensely bad at-bats. Seemingly every other plate appearance involves three or four pitches, a few non-competitive swings, and a strikeout or a pop fly. Arcia is a good hitter. He conquered the minor leagues with remarkable ease and has certainly demonstrated the characteristics of a quality MLB slugger. Why isn't that showing through right now? Download attachment: arciaK.jpg This isn't a situation like Jason Kubel, where a prolonged slump was evidence of diminished bat speed and declining ability. Arcia is only 23 and strong as a bull. Clearly, a big part of this is mental, but I wonder if that's all it is. I'm reminded of a tweet posted by my colleague, John Bonnes, back on June 10th: I remember reading it at the time and thinking, "Overreact much there, Johnny Boy?" I mean, this was Arcia's second start since the ankle injury. But sure enough, it was only the beginning of what has turned into a three-week cold spell for the young outfielder. So maybe there's something to that after all. Early in the season, Arcia had missed almost two months with a wrist injury, but he came back red-hot in late May, batting .378 with four doubles, four homers and 12 RBI in his first 11 games off the DL. I was at Target Field for the last of those games, in which he sprained the ankle when he was picked off at second base after a double. It was a gut-punch, because at that point Arcia was the star of the offense; he'd smashed a grand slam earlier that night. He was frustrated and in obvious pain as he limped off the field. I was surprised to see him back the next night as a pinch-hitter. The Twins had seemingly dodged a bullet. But since rolling his ankle, Arcia is 2-for-39 (.051) with 15 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances. Could the ankle be the culprit for his ongoing issues? Has the wrist flared up again? Or is he really just stuck in his own head? Whatever the case, his slump is headed toward historic proportions and the Twins are going to have to figure something out. They've already given him a couple days off for a "mental break," and that appears to have helped little. Perhaps some extended rest would help get him back to 100 percent physically. Or maybe a demotion to Triple-A is in order. That seems like an unappealing option, since you'd like to see Arcia fight through this thing in the big leagues and there aren't any clearly superior alternatives available. But I do wonder how much longer Ron Gardenhire is going to be able to tolerate these hideous at-bats. What do you think? What should the Twins do about the struggling, vitally important young outfielder? [/hr] Since the Twins defeated the White Sox on Sunday to complete a four-game sweep, you get 50% off your L or XL pizza from PapaJohns.com on Monday with the promo code 'TWINSWIN'! Click here to view the article

Buyers or Sellers Just 1.5 games behind Detroit in the Central and three out in the Wild Card race, Cleveland has been the American League's biggest surprise. Staring up at a stacked Tigers squad that last year pulled away with a 44-32 record in the second half en route to a World Series berth, you'd better believe that the Indians are looking to add at the deadline. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: cleveland-indians.jpg What They Need The Indians could use some help at the top of the rotation, where the talented yet inconsistent Justin Masterson currently leads the way, and have been linked to Matt Garza, among others. The Twins obviously can't offer anything in the way of high-end starting pitching. Cleveland may not be prepared to make the kind of aggressive moves necessary to garner that kind of talent, anyway. Although in the thick of things presently, this is a flawed team that is still in the midst of a rebuilding project geared toward fielding a title contender once Trevor Bauer (hopefully) figures things out and top prospects like Francisco Lindor and Danny Salazar are prepared to make an impact. It would be short-sighted to part with any premium prospect talent in the -- probably futile -- hope of catching the Tigers, but smaller deals aimed at improving, say, a bullpen that ranks 23rd in the majors in ERA make more sense. This is where the Tribe might find a match in the Twins. What Might Work Intra-divisional trades are somewhat rare but Cleveland and Minnesota have hooked up on minor post-deadline deals in recent years, with one sending Carl Pavano to the Twins and another sending Jim Thome to the Indians. If the two clubs were to connect again this year, I'd expect a similar non-blockbuster swap. Cleveland has been a little weak at DH, where 42-year-old Jason Giambi has been the principal recipient of at-bats. Ryan Doumit could be a fit there, although with Mark Reynolds and Nick Swisher on hand, the Indians are already pretty well stocked on 1B/DH types. In the bullpen, any one of the Jared Burton/Casey Fien/Brian Duensing group is a candidate. Chris Perez is firmly locked in as the closer and is controlled through next year, essentially ruling Cleveland out as a Glen Perkins destination. But beyond Perez the Indians only have a couple reliable relief options. Vinnie Pestano, a bullpen ace over the last two years, was recently demoted from the setup role. Sleeper Targets Mitch Brown - RHP - Rookie League - 19 years old A second-round draft pick in 2012 out of Century High School in Minnesota, Brown enjoyed a solid pro debut last year but has had a tough follow-up in 2013. He started out in Low-A, pitched poorly, landed on the DL for six weeks, and has since been pitching (poorly) in the Arizona Rookie League. Potential buy-low guy with added appeal thanks to the local ties. Might not be in play for anything the Twins have to offer, even with the poor results this season. Jesus Aguilar - 1B - AA - 23 years old If the Twins are looking to add more depth to their future first base equation, Aguilar would be a worthwhile name to look at. Right-handed hitter with a little pop and the ability to draw a walk. He currently has a .760 OPS in Double-A. Tony Wolters - 2B/C - High A - 21 years old Mired behind four superior middle infield prospects in Cleveland's system (Lindor, Dorssys Paulino, Ronny Rodriguez and Jose Ramirez) Wolters has transitioned this year to catcher. Opposing teams have run wild on him, attempting a whopping 51 steals in 31 games, so who knows how long that experiment will last. The Twins have no such concerns about overloaded infield depth, and Wolters has shown some decent offensive ability in four pro seasons. Austin Adams - RHP - AA - 26 years old Interesting case, this one. A former shortstop in college who converted to pitching in the pros, Adams performed well as a starter in the low levels of the minors with a big fastball that ranked as the best in Cleveland's system. A shoulder injury cost him the entire 2012 season, but this year Adams is back pitching out of the bullpen, where he has racked up tons of strikeouts (49 in 34 innings) while registering a 2.65 ERA. His control is iffy and he's pretty old for a prospect (he'll turn 27 in August) but if the Twins were going to give up an established relief arm he'd be an interesting one to bring back. Dream Target Dorssys Paulino - SS - Low A - 18 years old Lindor, who is backing up his top prospect status with a great season at High-A, isn't going anywhere. Paulino, another shortstop prospect playing in the Midwest League as a teenager, might be a more realistic possibility, if the Twins could package enough talent. He's a long way from the majors and he's hitting just .238 this season, but Paulino has big upside and would instantly give the Twins a viable prospect at shortstop, something they have lacked for a long, long time. Click here to view the article

Teams generally enter every season with a few question marks in the rotation. The Twins, unfortunately, look like they'll head into the 2012 campaign with five. With each starter slated to occupy a spot in Minnesota's rotation, there is a fair amount of upside and also significant downside. At this point there's no way to know which versions of these various Jekyll-and-Hyde acts we'll be seeing, so all we can do is hope that the Twins can come up heads more often than tails as they seek to improve on a league-worst pitching performance in 2011. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Carl Pavano has officially been tabbed as Opening Day starter – an honor that he's earned since he's the only member of this unit who threw more than 150 innings last year. In 2010 he was a highly effective innings-eater and arguably the most valuable starter on a 94-win team. Last year his results were thoroughly mediocre as he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league. Heads, he remembers how to miss a few extra bats and returns to the form he showed while winning 17 games two years ago. Tails, his performance continues to descend as he ages into his late 30s. Francisco Liriano was stellar in 2010, picking up Cy Young votes while striking out 200 hitters and earning a Game 1 ALDS start. Last year his ERA never dropped below 4.59 as he battled injuries and control issues that plagued him right up until the end of the campaign. Heads, he regains his fastball command and helps power the top of a solid rotation. Tails, the problems that haunted him in 2011 remain present, leading to continued inconsistency and frustration before the non-competitive Twins trade him for peanuts at the deadline. Scott Baker is the only member of this bunch who actually took care of business in 2011, and naturally his season was cut short by persisting elbow problems. Though his first-half success made him a borderline All-Star, he threw only 24 innings after the break. Heads, Baker finally shrugs off the arm troubles that have plagued him intermittently throughout the past two seasons to pile up 200 frames for the first time since 2009. Tails, his elbow keeps on barking and limits him once again, perhaps leading to surgery. Nick Blackburn has been a reliable, mid-rotation workhorse when healthy, hurling 400 innings with a 4.04 ERA between 2008 and 2009. Sadly, he hasn't been able to stay healthy since, and recently underwent arm surgery for a second consecutive offseason. Heads, Blackburn overcomes his flaws and serves as an average, yet valuable, anchor in the No. 4 spot. Tails, the hits keep on coming and he struggles to another shortened and substandard campaign. Finally, Jason Marquis is the newcomer in this equation. If he repeated his 4.43 ERA posted with the Nats last year, he'd be a decent enough fifth starter. But a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the course of a career that's been spent entirely in the inferior NL don't bode well. Heads, Marquis proves to be a serviceable piece at the end of the rotation, perhaps until a better option emerges in the minors. Tails, he follows the path of former bargain bin veterans like Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, dropping before the season's halfway through. It's not often that you see someone flip heads five times in a row, but it happens, and if these five could live up to their potential the Twins would boast a very respectable starting corps. Unfortunately, these coins appear to be weighted, and not in a good way. Pavano is in the twilight of his career. Liriano had a discouraging run in winter ball. Baker hasn't really been healthy since '09, and neither has Blackburn. Marquis just ain't very good. I rue the thought of the Twins pitching staff giving up 800-plus runs again this year, and I'm holding out hope that they can turn things around drastically. Given the talent present, it's certain possible. But I wouldn't bet on those odds. Would you? Download attachment: coin_toss_11.jpg Click here to view the article

Download attachment: mauer.jpg Ask yourself this question, and be honest in your reply: If Joe Mauer were becoming a free agent this offseason, is there any chance – ANY chance, whatsoever – that he would fetch a six-year, $138 million contract? I think the answer is pretty clearly no.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That's the prorated remaining portion of the eight-year contract Mauer signed with the Twins after a 2009 season in which he was arguably baseball's best player. He was 26, he was one of the game's most popular players and he was as healthy as he'd ever been. That was then, and this is now. In three seasons since, Mauer has hit .311/.393/.429 – impressive numbers but nowhere near the otherworldly stats he compiled in his MVP campaign. He has been besieged by injuries, missing a quarter of his team's games. And as he prepares to enter his 30s, he has already begun to transition away from catcher. Mauer is a great player and a tremendous asset. But any way you slice it, his value has declined pretty sharply over the past three seasons, which is largely a testament to how insanely high it was at the time he re-upped with the Twins. My point in all this is to say that no baseball team is going to give up quality prospects for the right to absorb Mauer's enormous and substantially risky contract. For all the hubbub about the catcher being put through waivers earlier this week – an extremely routine and procedural move that probably shouldn't have been reported in such provocative terms – the truth is that Terry Ryan would have been a fool not to expose Mauer to the league. He said as much himself. If some team were to go crazy like the Dodgers and offer up good young players to take on more than $100 million in salary commitments (extraordinarily unlikely since that bonanza was basically unprecedented), shouldn't the Twins at least hear them out? There is no downside to testing the waters, and certainly no player should be considered flat-out untradable by anyone when it comes to a rebuilding team. As you'd expect, Ryan got no bites. Because no team is in position to do what Los Angeles did. Had that wacky trade not gone down so recently, this "story" would have been a passing note rather than a daylong talking point. Mauer's oversized contract and full no-trade clause make it extremely improbable that he'll be moved, now or in the future. I mean extremely improbable – like Jim Carrey so-you're-telling-me-there's-a-chance improbable. It might be fun to daydream about what kind of impact such an outlandish move might have, but at the end of the day such thoughts are nothing more. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: plouffemorneau.jpg On the surface, this 2012 Twins campaign seems painfully similar to last season's train wreck. On this date a year ago, the Twins sat with a 56-77 record, which sadly compares favorably to their current 52-77 mark. Both seasons were marked by abysmal starts, midsummer rebounds and late implosions (at least the current squad is headed that way, with an 8-17 record since the start of August). Yet, looking beyond the similarly horrible results, this season has provided Twins fans with much more in the way of long-term reasons for hope.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Last year, aside from the brutal on-field results, you had a front office that appeared lost, numerous injuries that placed the future outlooks of key players in doubt, and setbacks striking high-profile prospects throughout the organization. Here are some of the developments that have me feeling much better about the franchise's future than I did a year ago, even as the Twins continue to maintain their label as one of the worst teams in baseball. 1. Health This is big. Injuries were the No. 1 storyline in 2011 as the roster was ravaged by bad break after bad break. Seemingly minor ailments kept players on the shelf for weeks, team doctors conjured up bizarre diagnoses, and we began to wonder whether franchise cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were permanently damaged goods. Both those players have stayed on the field and produced this year, along with most of their teammates. In fact, free agent acquisitions Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit have enjoyed unprecedented health. Clearly, the pendulum has swung in the other direction. One can certainly make the case that the team's awful performance in spite of many players avoiding injury is a bad thing, but there's no denying that team-wide good health is a positive harbinger for the future. 2. Chris Parmelee A person could hardly be blamed for not being sold on Parmelee's "breakout" last year, which involved a fairly solid second half in Rochester and a great final month with the Twins. The first baseman showed some nice signs, but not enough to overshadow four years of unspectacular performance in the minors, especially after he looked overwhelmed during an early stint with the Twins this year. Nevertheless, you simply can't overlook what the guy is doing in Triple-A right now. His .341/.460/.655 line with 17 homers (already a career high) is nothing short of jaw-dropping. His plate discipline has been superb and his power legit. Parmelee suddenly looks like a building block – one that gives the Twins a fair amount of flexibility going forward. 3. The Stacked Outfield Heading into the offseason, the outfield picture looked a little shaky. Denard Span had missed a sizable chunk of the season due to a concussion, while Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer were both likely to depart in free agency. As it turns out, Span has been healthy this year and the Twins have found two other guys who figure to be entrenched for the next few years in Josh Willingham and Ben Revere. On top of that, Darin Mastroianni has emerged as a great asset as a fourth outfielder. With all these players under control through at least 2014, the Twins are set in the outfield for several years, and that's not even mentioning top prospects like Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia who are rapidly rising. We're looking at a potential embarrassment of riches in the not-too-distant future. That's much different than any kind of embarrassment we were talking about last year. 4. Scott Diamond In a season where so much as gone wrong with the starting staff, it's easy to overlook just how impressive Diamond has been. Despite one of the league's worst strikeout rates, he continues to turn in strong outing after strong outing and he's not really slowing down – he'd notched five consecutive quality starts before being ejected in Texas last week, though he experienced another hiccup against the M's on Tuesday. I'll admit I'm somewhat skeptical that the lefty can maintain his minuscule walk rate going forward, but he's definitely a strike-thrower and his 55.3 percent grounder rate – seventh-highest in the majors – is no fluke. It's a good recipe for success even without the strikeouts; a recipe that should make Diamond a quality, inexpensive mid-rotation piece for many years. 5. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton Building a bullpen from the ground up can be a challenge, as the Twins learned last year. Building a bullpen around a couple of established, reliable late-inning arms is a different story, which is why it's hugely encouraging that Perkins has maintained – and perhaps even elevated – his brilliance from last year while Burton has emerged as an excellent righty setup man. These two look like a solid back-end core for Terry Ryan to build around, negating the need to overspend on an established "closer" while focusing on identifying hidden gems like Burton. 6. Trevor Plouffe Plenty of people are getting down on Plouffe now that he's slumping badly since coming off the disabled list, but I'm pretty bullish on him at this point. He's probably not the elite slugger that he resembled earlier this summer, but the comparisons to Danny Valencia are premature and misguided. Plouffe's offensive outburst was not totally isolated – he's been building up to this point for several years, showing steady improvement in the minors and majors as he's inched toward his physical prime. Now, at age 26, Plouffe is entering that prime and regardless of his current cold spell he looks like a player who can respectably hold down the hot corner for several years. The Twins have been in desperate need of such a player for a long time. Click here to view the article

* The Twins made their final round of cuts yesterday, sending Brian Dozier, J.R. Towles, Casey Fien and Brian Dinkelman to Rochester. With that, the season-opening 25-man roster has come into clear focus; it will include four starters, eight relievers and – surprisingly – only two catchers. Drew Butera and J.R. Towles appeared to be battling for the third catcher job, but both will open the campaign in Triple-A, meaning that Ron Gardenhire will have Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit as his sole catching options. There's a measure of risk here but I think it's the right choice. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Mauer and Doumit have both been injured often throughout their careers. If one goes down and lands on the disabled list, the Twins can easily have Butera or Towles up the next day; but, should one suffer a minor injury, it could leave Gardenhire without a backup for a few few days and eliminate Doumit's valuable flexibility. In the long run, I believe the risk here is healthily outweighed by the benefit of having a useful player on the bench rather than a no-hit third catcher, but this certainly seems like an instance in which Gardy is going outside of his comfort zone. Then again, the organization as a whole has shown willingness to shy away from comfort zones this spring (the early demotion of Tsuyoshi Nishioka standing out as a prime example) and given where the Twins are coming from I think that's appropriate. * Download attachment: dozier.jpg Dozier stuck around long enough to get a good look from the coaching staff but there was no way he was going to make the team out of spring training, barring an injury to Alexi Casilla or Jamey Carroll. While Gardenhire is clearly enamored with the 24-year-old shortstop, who hit .277/.333/.511 in spring training after a strong minor-league season in 2011, Dozier still hasn't played above Double-A and isn't viewed from outside as a top-notch prospect. If Dozier is truly ready to play in the bigs, as he claims, he can go prove it in Rochester while the Twins see what they have in Carroll and Casilla. Meanwhile, Terry Ryan is smartly downplaying the hype, saying "there is some work to be done." Amen. That's the kind of insightful, forthright quote that we never got from Bill Smith. And Ryan is wise to temper expectations a bit, what with the manager glowing about Dozier and one local scribe hailing him as "the next big thing for the Twins." * Of course, while Ryan is cautioning not to put too much stock into spring training performance, the Twins have also apparently elected to roll with Chris Parmelee as their Opening Day first baseman on the basis of a strong showing over the past month. Parmelee has hit five homers in exhibition play and also went deep 12 times in the second half last year between Double-A and the majors. If that power is legit and he continues to show good plate discipline, he's got a chance to be a solid contributor, but slow-footed first basemen need to hit and the Twins are taking a leap of faith by letting the 24-year-old bypass Triple-A despite a .416 slugging percentage in 253 games at Double-A. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: strike-out1.jpg The true importance of the strikeout is a subject of much debate in baseball circles. It is generally agreed, though, that the K is a powerful weapon for pitchers, one with strengths (it's the most reliable method of recording an out) and weaknesses (pitching for strikeouts requires more pitches and taxes the arm). Dennis Brackin wrote a great piece for the Star Tribune last week on the subject of pitching to contact, which is a philosophy that the Twins have notoriously espoused. Brackin's article sought to clarify some misconceptions about the phrase. Most notably, that coaches are actively encouraging pitchers not to strike anyone out. A severe strikeout deficiency is currently the greatest downfall for Minnesota's pitching staff, but it's not the coaching approach that is at issue. It's the personnel. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For whatever reason, the Twins have strayed away more and more from stocking the roster with strikeout pitchers in recent years. Maybe because it's cheaper, or maybe because the organization lacks the scouting chops to find quality power arms. In any case, the amount of contact that Twins pitchers are now allowing makes it nearly impossible to succeed. The chart below, which I put together as part of the Twins scorecard content for next week's series against the Indians (only $1 at the stadium!) paints a picture of how Twins pitching staffs have evolved over the years from a K-rate perspective, and how their results have been impacted: [TABLE] Year ERA (AL Rank) K/9 (AL Rank) 2002 4.12 (6th) 6.6 (5th) 2003 4.41 (7th) 6.1 (9th) 2004 4.03 (1st) 6.8 (3rd) 2005 3.71 (5th) 5.9 (10th) 2006 3.95 (2nd) 7.3 (1st) 2007 4.15 (5th) 6.9 (4th) 2008 4.17 (7th) 6.1 (12th) 2009 4.50 (11th) 6.5 (10th) 2010 3.95 (5th) 6.5 (10th) 2011 4.58 (13th) 6.0 (14th) 2012 5.69 (14th) 5.3 (14th) [/TABLE] As you can see, the Twins weren't always a contact-heavy staff. In fact, back in 2006 they led the league in whiffs per nine innings, and ranked second in ERA. Back then, Johan Santana was leading the rotation and Joe Nathan the bullpen. Now, Carl Pavano is the No. 1 starter and Matt Capps the closer. Those two set the tone for a staff that pitches to contact at an outrageously extreme rate. Since the start of last year, Pavano has struck out a lower percentage of hitters (10.9%) than any starting pitcher in baseball other than Jamie Moyer, who is 49, and Brad Penny, who was just released by a Japanese team. Meanwhile, Capps has struck out a lower percentage (12.4%) than any reliever other than Aaron Laffey and Erasmo Ramirez, both of whom are presently in Triple-A. The major leagues as a whole are averaging 7.3 K/9 this year. Excluding Scott Diamond, who's pitched once, the Twins currently have two pitchers on their entire staff with a K-rate above that mark: Glen Perkins and Jared Burton. As a team, Minnesota is averaging 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings; if that were to hold, it would be the lowest figure for an MLB club since the 2003 Tigers averaged 4.8. That team also lost 119 games. (Incidentally, the Twins are currently on pace to lose 117). As a general philosophy, telling hurlers to pitch to contact -- as in, trust your stuff and don't be afraid to throw in the zone early in the count -- isn't so bad. It's been Rick Anderson's calling card for many years. But at this point, the Twins have completely abandoned the punch-out. There are basically no starting pitchers in the entire organization who excel at missing bats. That needs to change. When you allow as much contact as this team currently is, you're going to struggle to limit hits and runs regardless of how good your defense is. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: greinke.jpg The World Series is almost underway, which means that the official start of the offseason is rapidly approaching. When the free agent market opens up, one of the central figures will be Zack Greinke, who is the clear top dog in a deep pitching pack. The former Cy Young winner offers ace-level ability, youth and a durable track record. Sure, there are a few question marks surrounding the right-hander, who turns 29 this weekend. He's had some anxiety issues in the past, and his ERA in three seasons since winning the Cy Young with Kansas City is a somewhat pedestrian 3.83. Nevertheless, compared to this year's other big free agent prize, Josh Hamilton, Greinke looks like a perfectly safe bet. Many believe he'll get a nine-figure deal at a time where spending is ramping up and many clubs are looking for pitching help. As a team that needs pitching more desperately than perhaps any other, could the Twins be a player for Greinke? It certainly wouldn't be in their nature to bid on a top free agent pitcher, but things have changed (you'd hope) in the Target Field era and this franchise could use a jolt to re-energize the fan base. Given the lack of high-end pitching in the pipeline, securing an arm like Greinke for the next five or six years would make a whole lot of sense. It's difficult to envision Terry Ryan entering a bidding war against heavyweight suitors like the Angels and Rangers, but in a recent interview with ESPN 1500 he at least left open the possibility: The last part of that quote seemingly rules out the possibility of a mega-contract for someone like Greinke. Then again, if the club was internally mulling that type of investment, you would hardly expect them to shout it out and alert the rest of the league to their intentions. More than most top-tier free agent pitchers, Greinke seems like a fit with Minnesota. He shies away from the bright spotlight more than your typical star player, and has spent nearly his entire career pitching in the Midwest. He's a quiet, cerebral guy that consistently throws strikes. This isn't a CC Sabathia or Cliff Lee, and he probably won't get paid like one, which could improve the chances for a club like the Twins. Of course, there are going to be a lot of teams making their pitch to Greinke this winter. Getting in that mix would not only be uncharacteristic for the Twins, it would be unprecedented. But, when you get down to it, they do have the money to make this type of splash if they really wanted to, especially when you consider that Justin Morneau's $14 million will come off the books in a year and revenue would likely rebound substantially with a star like Greinke brought aboard. Would they actually be willing to stray so far from their comfort zone and saddle themselves with another huge contract alongside Mauer's for the better part of the next decade? Difficult to fathom, but who knows. At some point, they need to stop operating like a small-market team. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: gardenhire.jpg In their second-to-last game of 2012, the Twins sent Anthony Swarzak to the hill. He turned in a sub par five-inning outing, and the Twins ended up losing by a run, their 95th loss of the season. A pitcher who had no business starting a major-league game getting roughed up and putting his capable offense in a hole they couldn't dig out of. Minnesota's 2012 season in a nutshell. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now, the above isn't intended as a slight toward Swarzak, whose overall campaign was hardly a disaster. When used in the long relief role, he was perfectly adequate, turning in a 4.05 ERA in 73 1/3 innings out of the bullpen and often effectively bridging the gap after short starts, which were depressingly frequent. Swarzak was one of many hurlers who were successful when used in the proper role, which is one of the bigger positive takeaways for the pitching staff this year. Guys like Sam Deduno and Cole DeVries put forth efforts that would have been exemplary for a spot starter, but both were somewhat stretched when forced into more than a dozen games. Brian Duensing was outstanding as a reliever and horrible as a starter. Liam Hendriks dominated the minors but looked overmatched in the majors while the Twins had little choice but to keep trotting him out. We'd probably view most of these pitchers differently if they hadn't been pressed so far beyond their expected roles. And of course, this was the result of what was without question the most notable development of the season: The five starters that the Twins expected to comprise their rotation at the beginning of the year (Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis) combined to make a total of 54 starts. There were many factors contributing to the entire preseason rotation being out of the picture by the end of July, and you could argue that many of them were foreseeable. Still, the Twins flipped tails five times with their five starters and when you have that kind of extraordinarily bad luck, you're bound to have a tough time competing, especially when you don't have much starting pitching depth to begin with. Many things went wrong for the Twins, but it basically all comes back to starting pitching. Rarely has the culprit for a completely derailed season been so blatantly clear. That's a shame, as it covers up the assorted successes surrounding the relief corps and the offense. In the bullpen, Glen Perkins backed up a breakout 2011 campaign with an even better season in which he handled everything thrown his way, taking over the closer role without a hitch after Matt Capps went down. Jared Burton and Casey Fien emerged as legitimate cogs, while Duensing remains one of the league's better lefty specialists. That's a solid, inexpensive core to build around. In the lineup, the Twins stayed shockingly healthy all year. In 2011, only two players on the entire team (Michael Cuddyer and Danny Valencia) were able to amass 500 plate appearances; this year seven players topped that mark. From the point that the Twins finally settled on Ben Revere as the right fielder after cycling through several uninspiring options early on, the starting nine remained impressively stable throughout the summer (with the characteristic exception of the middle infield spots). Not only were they healthier around the field, they were far more productive. The Twins went from having the second-worst OPS in the AL in 2011 (.666) to ranking ninth at .717 this year. They remained light on power, as they'll finish among the bottom three teams in slugging and homers, but they rank fifth in on-base percentage and are tied for first in stolen bases, which is more their traditional recipe for success anyway. On Wednesday night the Twins will wrap up this 2012 season, and they might finish with only three fewer losses than they had last year. That's fairly discouraging, but for those who followed the club, there's just no way to come away with the same sense of all-encompassing ineptitude and frustration. This team's failures started and ended with a rotation that was grossly unequipped for the plights that would befall it over the course of the summer. Does that make 95 losses easier to swallow? I guess, for me, it does. Mistakes were made and there's obviously work to be done, but I feel a whole lot better about this organization's outlook going forward than I did a year ago, even if the improvement in the W/L column was negligible. Click here to view the article

In 2013, the Oakland Athletics averaged 9.7 runs per game in their seven tilts against the Twins, and 4.5 runs per game against all other opponents. Oakland's reign of terror against the team that ruined its happy ending in Moneyball continued this week, as the A's thoroughly dismantled Minnesota in a rather sparsely attended home-opening sweep. After investing $84 million into the rotation during the offseason, the Twins have received painfully similar results from their starting pitchers.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The first series at Target Field was all too familiar: three games in which the starters dug an early hole and the offense couldn't dig out. In total, the Twins have gotten one quality start from their rotation in nine games during a 3-6 start. They are getting blasted. Meanwhile, their best starter from 2013 sits in the bullpen waiting to mop up the messes that have been created. Download attachment: Deduno1.jpg The decision to move Samuel Deduno into a relief role seemed strange at the end of camp and seems stranger now. He's certainly among the top five pitchers on the club in terms of stuff, and he's been on a heck of a run the last couple years, but he's being forced to sit around in the bullpen while the Twins' signature brand of bat-seeking two-seamers gets plastered all about the yard. Deduno as a reliever just doesn't look like a fit. He's pitching in a role where the situations are often close and late, and every mistake is magnified. Case in point: in his first appearance of the season, Deduno entered in the 11th inning of a 6-6 game. He put a couple runners on base and then ended up letting the winning score in on a wild pitch. In one of the games against Oakland, he turned a three-run deficit into a four-run deficit by balking in a run. Even Deduno's fiercest proponents (I consider myself one of them) would not deny that he is erratic and mistake-prone. He's a wild card on the mound. When given six innings, he can make up for his missteps by baffling the majority of opposing hitters. But he's not a guy you want to be bringing into a one-run game with runners on base. So the assignment seems forced. To his credit, the miscast mop-up man has performed well overall; after tossing three scoreless innings in relief of Mike Pelfrey Thursday, Deduno owns a 3.00 ERA with nine strikeouts in eight innings. But he's not in the proper role and he's being set aside for some guys who are not getting the job done. I have no illusions that the Twins are going to be a playoff team this year, but I think I speak for every fan out there when I say that the type of games witnessed at Target Field this week are quickly going to drain my interest. There should be little patience for these shoddy performances. Kevin Correia's leash ought to be exceedingly short. He's not in the future plans and he's not very good right now. I have more faith in Mike Pelfrey and Phil Hughes, and both are signed beyond this year, but if their results don't improve the Twins shouldn't hesitate to swap one with Deduno and put it on their shoulders to force their way back into the rotation. After all, Deduno is the only one who has really earned anything. He had a 3.83 ERA last year. He was the team's only good starter. What's going on here, anyway? In a lot of respects, I have a hard time getting worked up about the Twins' bad start, mostly because my expectations were quite low to begin with. But some of the decisions that have led them to where they're at are hard to stomach. They're starting Chris Herrmann and Darin Mastroianni in right field within the first 10 days of the season because they waived their only credible fourth outfielder in order to keep Jason Bartlett. Their best starting pitcher from last year is relegated to a mismatched relief role despite out-pitching everyone else in spring training. I want to believe in this regime. There have been signs that things are heading in a better direction. But what I'm seeing so far has me both scratching and shaking my head. Click here to view the article

We wrap up the Position Analysis series with a look at the relief corps, which could best be described as "unstable." There's little question that the Twins will proceed with seven relievers and a short bench, as is their standard; to fill those seven spots, they brought a veritable army of flawed pitchers to compete in Ft. Myers. With a week left to go, it appears that the Twins have settled on which arms they will carry north. As is always the case in spring training, this is subject to change – particularly with the uncertain situations surrounding Scott Baker and Jason Marquis – but here's a look at the seven relievers I believe the Twins will break camp with. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Matt CappsDownload attachment: capps.JPG 2011 Stats: 65.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 15/ 24 SV, 34/13 K/BB, 1.20 WHIP Capps spent most of last season battling a forearm strain. Pitching through the pain, he never complained, took the mound when he was asked and showed accountability when he failed to get the job done. He deserves credit for that. He also got hammered by hitters routinely, blew nine of 24 save chances and was booed off the mound at Target Field multiple times. Capps has been an effective hard-throwing relief pitcher with outstanding control for most of his career and he's still only 28. If he's fully healthy he should be perfectly adequate in the closer role. Last year's arm problems were never addressed surgically, so there exists a real possibility that the injury could come barking once again. Glen Perkins 2011 Stats: 61.2 IP, 2.48 ERA, 65/21 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP The only member of this bullpen who looks like a remotely sure thing is Perkins, coming off a breakthrough season. In his transition to a setup role, Perk was flat-out unhittable over the first four months of 2011 but saw his performance deteriorate in August and September. Most likely, this was due to his high usage; he appeared in 65 games last year when his previous professional high was 39. Assuming the southpaw's arm is in good shape, he's a solid bet to proceed as one of the league's better late-inning relievers. His fastball gained significant velocity with the switch to the bullpen, setting up a slider that is one of the league's deadliest weapons. Brian Duensing 2011 Stats: 161.2 IP, 5.23 ERA, 115/52 K/BB, 1.52 WHIP Last spring, I bemoaned Ron Gardenhire's decision to hand Duensing a spot in the rotation, reasoning that his success as a starter in 2010 was unsustainable and that facing righty-stacked starting lineups would eventually do him in. Sure enough, the lefty had a tough year in the rotation, finishing with a 5.23 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Through the struggles, Duensing continued to mow down left-handed hitters, holding them to a .217/.242/.280 hitting line with one home run in 187 PA. Considering his major weakness against righties, it makes a world of sense to move him back into a role where he can be situationally matched up against same-sided batters. Played to his strengths, Duensing figures to have plenty of success. Anthony Swarzak 2011 Stats: 102 IP, 4.32 ERA, 55/26 K/BB, 1.34 WHIP Swarzak has been a useful swing man in the past, but there are plenty of reasons to be leery of his outlook. During his time in the big leagues last year, he struck out 12.5 percent of the batters he faced; only five qualifying pitchers in the majors had a worse rate. His 19-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 38 1/3 as a reliever inspired little confidence. Hopefully a full-time switch to the bullpen will help play up his stuff, because it's hard to see his low 90s fastball and mediocre secondary offerings serving much value in anything other than a mop-up role. Jared Burton 2011 Stats: 4.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3/3 K/BB, 1.93 WHIP Burton is probably the most intriguing guy in the bullpen mix. He's pitched a total of eight innings in the majors over the past two seasons, but prior to that he'd been a quality late-inning reliever for the Reds, and he's 30 years old. Injury issues derailed the right-hander in recent years, but he's been healthy in camp and his results on the mound have been excellent. He's the club's best hope for a reliable right-handed setup man to complement Perkins. Matt Maloney 2011 Stats: 18.2 IP, 9.16 ERA, 13/4 K/BB, 2.14 WHIP The Twins claimed Maloney during the offseason because they saw something in him despite an unremarkable 2011 season spent mostly starting in the Reds' system. Their belief in his potential as a reliever appears justified based on a 16-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 1/3 spring innings, but that's overshadowed by a lengthy record of mediocrity. Fortunately, as a third lefty option out of the bullpen and long reliever, he shouldn't need to see too many high-leverage spots. Jeff Gray 2011 Stats: 48.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 23/21K/BB, 1.51 WHIP The buzz for Maloney is understandable, to some degree, but I'm baffled by the Twins' fascination with Gray. Apparently in line to make the roster by virtue of being out of options, he's a 30-year-old right-hander with a 50-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 88 2/3 big-league innings, a 6.6 K/9 rate in the minors and two strikeouts against four walks in 8 1/3 spring innings. Gray is a hard thrower, with a fastball that registers in the mid-90s, but the velocity hasn't translated into remotely dominant numbers, and he's been around for a while. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: liriano.jpg When the news came down this weekend that the Twins had traded Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for a pair of middling 23-year-old prospects, the reaction around here was understandably negative. The same questions echoed in the minds of fans across the state. Why did the Twins deal Liriano in the wake of his worst start of the season? Why did they back away from their stated goal of adding young, high-upside talent? And why – WHY – did they send a potential difference-maker to the one team that almost no Twins fan wants to see hoisting a trophy in October? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The answers to these questions aren't especially difficult to figure. Terry Ryan settled on dealing Liriano to the Sox because they had the best offer on the table and he didn't expect better ones to come by Tuesday. Of course he would have preferred to pry away younger prospects with higher ceilings, but even with the increased number of buyers brought on by the new postseason format, clearly teams weren't knocking at the door to hand over those kinds of players. And while that's disappointing, it shouldn't be all that surprising. It's not because of Liriano's clunker last Tuesday (which happened to come against the team that traded for him). General managers aren't stupid enough to view one outing in a vacuum when it comes to evaluating a pitcher. Bad starts happen. The problem is that, with Frankie, they've happened too often over the past five years. Since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2008, Liriano owns a 4.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Utterly mediocre numbers that have been very much in line with the ones he's posted this year. For all his flurries of brilliance, the league is also vividly aware of the fragility – physical, mental or both – that has made him so insanely inconsistent and unreliable. Rental players, in general, don't garner huge returns because no one wants to mortgage the future for two months of production from an impending free agent – particularly when it's a pitcher who is going to make, at most, a dozen starts. Occasionally a savvy GM can take advantage of one club's desperation, but in this case it became clear that nobody fully trusted Liriano. (Admit it, that includes you.) Based on the left-hander's recent run of success, fans were overrating their own asset and setting expectations too high, putting Ryan in an unfortunate position. There was literally no way he was going to be able to acquit himself in this situation; holding on to Liriano made no real sense and the impact offers weren't there. And sadly, I suspect he'll have a hard time making up for it in these final hours before Tuesday afternoon's deadline, because while trade chips like Denard Span and Josh Willingham are more appealing with multi-year contracts, they still don't have the kind of value that many fans want to believe. Jim Crikket had it right when he wrote two weeks ago that we should be prepared for disappointment during the days leading up to the deadline. In a season like this one, I guess we shouldn't have expected anything else. Click here to view the article

Likely Starter: Jamey Carroll 2011 Stats: .290/.359/.347, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 52 R, 10/10 SB Download attachment: jameycarroll.jpg Potential Backups: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon Welcome Jamey Carroll, the latest passenger on Minnesota's never-ending shortstop carousel. Since Cristian Guzman's departure, the Twins have opened with six different players at the position in seven seasons. Their Opening Day shortstops have ended up averaging 68 starts there, and only one – Jason Bartlett in 2007 – actually started over 100 games in a season. At this point, the Twins would settle for even short-term stability, and that's what they're seeking in Carroll, a 38-year-old journeyman signed to a two-year deal during the offseason. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The words "stability" and "journeyman" might seem odd when coupled in the same sentence, especially when the player in question is almost 40. Indeed, Carroll – who didn't reach the majors until he was 28 – is now with his fifth organization and has profiled as a part-time utility man for most of his career. These facts leave plenty of room to question whether he can be the steady veteran rock that the Twins desperately need him to be. But if you look at his most recent history – and that seems fair – it isn't difficult to see why the Twins decided to go with him. Although he had made only 46 career starts at shortstop prior to joining Los Angeles in 2010, he exceeded that number in both of his seasons with the Dodgers and was often used as a regular there when Rafael Furcal wasn't available. Carroll's offensive numbers over those two seasons were respectable enough, as he made up for a complete lack of pop (.054 Isolated Power) by hitting .290 both years and getting on base at a .368 overall clip. It will be interesting to see whether he can maintain those numbers while batting second regularly in an AL lineup, but if he can he'll be a serviceable hitter. Defense is the bigger question mark. There are differing opinions on how he'll hold up at the toughest infield position full-time, but clearly he wasn't thought of as a shortstop prior to arriving in Los Angeles at age 36. Even in the minors, Carroll played nearly twice as many games at second than at short – that just doesn't happen with great middle infield defenders. It's possible that the veteran has turned a corner and improved his skills enough to earn the increased tread at shortstop over the past couple seasons, but that seems unlikely for a player in his late 30s. I'd guess that more than anything it was his level of experience, his reputation as a good clubhouse presence and his almost non-existent injury history that served as impetuses for Terry Ryan to take the plunge early in the offseason. Those aren't insignificant factors, but none of them make Carroll particularly likely to excel as a full-time major-league shortstop here in the twilight of his career. Of course, the Twins would settle for a guy who stays healthy and doesn't kick the ball around given the disaster that took place last year. What's alarming is that if Carroll doesn't last, we may be looking at a similarly painful situation this summer, because the depth at this position is brutal. Who else can play shortstop for the Twins? Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Trevor Plouffe got their chances last year and proved to be defensive liabilities. Ryan has stated that the Alexi Casilla experiment at short last year "didn't really work out." Who else is there? Brian Dozier, who hasn't played above Double-A and is considered by many to be destined for second? Pedro Florimon, the offseason waiver pickup with a .676 OPS in the minors and 26 errors in Double-A last year? The Twins are trying their luck with a 38-year-old career utility man as their starting shortstop, and all of his backup options appear to either belong at second base, in the minors, or both. The carousel moves on, as this organization's continued inability to properly address the most important position on the diamond keeps on coming around to haunt them. Predicted 2012 Hitting Line for Carroll: .260/.335/.305, 0 HR, 20 RBI Click here to view the article

Download attachment: optimism.jpg You'd figure a team that lost 99 games last year, and now finds itself on pace to lose 96 this year, would instill little confidence in its fan base. Yet, as we creep up on the season's halfway point, I find myself feeling rather optimistic about the Twins' future. No, I don't believe the club is going to miraculously climb back into the AL Central race this year. But I do think that, given some of the positive signs we've seen, the path back to contention is looking shorter than we once may have feared. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Coming into this season, the Twins were in a state of disarray. A disastrous 2011 had caught them like a sucker punch, sullying their reputation as an organization to be emulated and prompting a major front-office shakeup. Alarming question marks swirled around several of the roster's key players, many of whom were amid long-term deals that had the potential to become quite burdensome. Given the number of health concerns attached to position players, and the see-what-sticks approach taken with the pitching staff, no one really knew what to expect from the lineup, the relief corps or the rotation. Fortunately, two of those units have proven solid. The bullpen has been a very pleasant surprise for the Twins, with a WHIP ranking fifth in the majors. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton give them two legitimate back end relievers who are under control for multiple years, Brian Duensing continues to excel as a lefty specialist, and several guys have emerged in the minors as possible blocks with which to build around those three (not to mention all the college relievers drafted earlier this month who figure to be fast risers). All in all, the outlook for this unit is fairly bright. The offense, after a slow start, has also come into its own. The Twins lead the majors in hits this month, and several embattled players are alleviating concerns through their performance on the field. Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have all been relatively healthy and productive; along with Josh Willingham, Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe, this gives them a quality core that is entrenched beyond this season. Granted, the starting pitching is a mess, but that appears to be the only thing holding the Twins back at this point. Building a rotation isn't easy, of course, but the ability to focus on a specific area – as opposed to the across-the-board retooling required during this past offseason – makes returning to contention far less daunting. If the Twins can keep the lineup and bullpen together for the most part, they could find themselves back in the mix as soon as next year IF they get significant improvement from the starters. That's obviously a substantial "if," but between Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson, Nick Blackburn and some freed up money (from departing starters like Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker) to hypothetically put toward a deep free agent pool, the Twins may have some decent options available. It's enough to make you think twice about the notion of trading away guys like Willingham, Morneau and Span (or Burton and Perkins), who could all contribute to a revival next year if they're still around. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: ubaldo-jimenez.jpg The Indians made a bold move at the trade deadline in 2011, trading away multiple top prospects to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez, a 27-year-old right-hander who was viewed at the time as one of the premier pitching talents in the National League. An imposing presence with a mid-90s fastball, Jimenez had steadily improved in the seasons leading up to 2010, when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA to finish third in the Cy Young voting. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Jimenez wasn't been the same guy over the first half of the 2011 season in Colorado, posting a 4.46 ERA with significantly diminished velocity, but Cleveland still jumped at the opportunity to add a potential ace in his physical prime. As it turned out, the righty's troubles only worsened after the trade. He put up a 5.10 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch while the Indians rapidly faded from contention, and then trudged through a tumultuous 2012 campaign in which he lost 17 games with a 5.40 ERA, adding a career-high 4.8 BB/9 and a career-low 7.3 K/9. In two years, Jimenez had gone from superstar to liability. He bounced back in a major way this season, and the timing could hardly have been better for him. In his final year under contract, Jimenez went 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA, pushing his K-rate all the way back up 9.6 while showing dramatically improved control. Although his velocity dropped for a third consecutive year, his secondary stuff was as good as ever, and in the second half Jimenez looked every bit the part of a No. 1 starter, posting a 1.82 ERA and 100/27 K/BB ratio while holding opponents to a .606 OPS. He notched double-digit strikeouts in four of his last eight starts. Why Does He Fit? His performance this season, especially toward the end, is awfully tantalizing. That's a guy that could legitimately be called an ace -- something the Twins have mostly lacked since Johan Santana's departure. He also doesn't turn 30 until January, so in theory you're not looking at any imminent decline. While he's had his ups and downs in terms of performance and there are questions about the condition of his arm based on draining gas, he's been able to take the mound every five days throughout his career up to this point. Jimenez has made 31-plus starts in each of his six seasons since becoming a full-time big-leaguer. Only six pitchers have made more starts since 2008. Why Doesn't He Fit? There are no two ways about it: Jimenez is a massive risk. Even though he was able to succeed with a 91 MPH fastball this year, his steadily declining velocity is clearly a red flag, and he's still only a year removed from being one of the worst pitchers in the league. Considering his age, his recent performance and the state of the market, Jimenez will surely require a sizable long-term deal. The Twins might have to go above and beyond what others are offering in order to lure him to a current non-contender. As enticing as his upside is, the downside may simply be too great to justify an unprecedented financial commitment. Beyond the money, signing Jimenez would also probably cost the Twins a high draft pick, as Cleveland seems likely to make a qualifying offer. What Will He Cost? The Offseason Handbook pegs his estimated contract at four years and $64 million, which coincidentally is the same guess we made on Tim Lincecum, who was profiled here on Tuesday. Lincecum ended up inking an extension with the Giants later that day at two years and $35 million. What does that tell us about Jimenez, who is similar to Lincecum in that his velocity has declined as he's approached 30? Compared to The Freak, Jimenez would seem to offer a lower ceiling and deeper floor, but he's also coming off a much better year. Sixty-four million still looks like a reasonable guess to me. Would you pay that for a 30-year-old who was an ace this season, but mostly a disaster in the two years preceding? Click here to view the article

As a handy one-stop shop for all Twins-related offseason rumors, we'll be running frequent "Rumor Mill Round-Up" columns here at Twins Daily, wherein we gather up all the recent rumblings involving the local club. With each rumor, we'll provide some analysis and a "Steam Rating," assigning a 1-5 score to the report based on the level of likelihood we'll actually see something materialize. With the annual Winter Meetings getting underway this week, here's a quick rundown of the players the Twins are being connected to: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: john-buck.jpg * John Buck has "climbed to the top" of Minnesota's wish list at catcher, according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. With Jarrod Saltalamacchia and A.J. Pierzynski off the board, the Twins have apparently turned their attention to the veteran Buck as an option to ease the transition of young Josmil Pinto behind the plate. I viewed Buck as a likely target for Minnesota and listed him in my blueprint in the Offseason Handbook. I like that he'll be relatively cheap and can operate as a quality backup or a serviceable semi-regular starter in the event Pinto needs more time. Buck is far from a great hitter but he has averaged 119 games played and 16 homers over the past four seasons. The fact that Buck has worked extensively with Ricky Nolasco, a former teammate in Miami, probably enhances the probability of this match. I see the interest here being very real. Steam Rating: 5/5 * The Twins are one team that has expressed interest in Oakland's Brett Anderson, according to Susan Slusser, who does a fantastic job covering the Athletics for the San Francisco Chronicle. I wrote last week about the merits of pursuing Anderson, concluding that at the right price he'd be a great gamble for Terry Ryan. Whether A's GM Billy Beane is willing to deal the durability-challenged former top prospect for what we'd construe as the "right price" is unknown, but with his value depressed the Twins would be silly not to at least explore. Steam Rating: 3/5 * The Pirates are set to meet with Bronson Arroyo's agent, via ESPN's Buster Olney. The Twins were reported to be interested in Arroyo prior to the Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes signings, and there has been some buzz that their interest remains, although we haven't heard anything connecting the two sides in a while. I would guess that if the Twins are going to sign another starter, it will be more of a low-level signing, so Arroyo is probably not a realistic target unless his price really drops for some reason. Steam Rating: 2/5 UPDATE: ESPN 1500's Darren Wolfson says the Twins are meeting with Arroyo's agent on Monday afternoon, so there may be more to this possibility than we think. (h/t JimCrikket) * It sounds like former Twins starter Carl Pavano is interested in resuming his playing career but doesn't view the Twins as a likely destination, per Berardino. Pavano missed the entire 2013 season after rupturing his spleen in a freak shoveling incident. He told Berardino, "I'm going to give it a try. What else have I got?" Asked about the Twins specifically, he said he hasn't been in contact and added, "I think we're in different places. They need those younger guys in their rotation." Truth. Steam Rating: 1/5 Click here to view the article

With Vance Worley outrighted and Kyle Gibson seemingly in line to claim the fifth spot in the rotation, the Minnesota Twins' roster is beginning to come into focus. Based on recent developments, rumblings around camp and general deduction, here's a final stab at projecting the 25 men who will head north in a week when the Twins head to Chicago to open their 2014 season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] As always, names in red are the players who should be considered locks (barring injury) while the names in black are less certain. Download attachment: josmilpinto.jpg Catchers (3): Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto, Chris Herrmann I'm not sure this is how it's going to come together, but it is looking like Pinto will make the roster because the Twins need his bat. If Ron Gardenhire elects to plug Pinto in at DH frequently against lefties -- which I think is a good idea -- he'll probably want Hermmann on the roster. Herrmann also provides additional outfield depth, and has performed well this spring. Infielders (5): Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar I think Gardenhire would like to have Chris Colabello on the team, but it's going to be tough to fit him along with a third catcher. That might ultimately be one of the tougher choices the manager has to make. As for Jason Bartlett, it's clear that Gardy wants to keep him but I can't see any way to rationalize a no-hit utility man on the roster in addition to the backup infielder Escobar. Outfielders (5): Josh Willingham, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Jason Kubel, Alex Presley Chris Parmelee is the victim of a roster squeeze, and could be lost because he's out of options. It simply doesn't make sense to carry both Kubel and Parmelee, and all indications are that Kubel is in. Starting Pitchers (5): Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Kyle Gibson Samuel Deduno is headed to the bullpen, and the final spot in the rotation will go to either Gibson or Scott Diamond. Several signs are pointing to Gibson as the winner in that competition, although the club might not make an official decision until after both hurlers make their final spring appearances on Tuesday. Bullpen (7): Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond It sounds like Deduno is basically a lock to head to the bullpen, and he'll take on a middle reliever role while Swarzak slides into the later innings. The Twins don't want to risk losing Diamond for nothing, so if he's not the starter they'll probably keep him as a long reliever unless they can swing a trade. Assistant general manager Rob Antony noted on Friday that he doesn't see Diamond as a situational reliever because he isn't especially good against lefties. Michael Tonkin and Caleb Thielbar are the unlucky victims of circumstance here. Both are good enough, and have pitched well enough this spring, to be viewed as bullpen fixtures, but the Twins don't lose risking them by sending them to Triple-A. It will be nice to have these kind of reinforcements available in Rochester. Click here to view the article