Nick Nelson

The Twins had a good offense in 2023, but one with some frustrating tendencies that ultimately contributed to the team's postseason downfall. If Minnesota wants to move away from its extreme swing-and-miss profile, these are a few offseason pickups who could help meaningfully move the needle. Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports Maybe you heard: The 2023 Minnesota Twins offense set the all-time record for most strikeouts in a season. Their hitters turned and walked back to the dugout an astonishing 1,654 times, taking the "boom or bust" model to new heights by also tying for the AL lead in home runs. It's a style that often worked for them, as the Twins captured a division title and advanced to the second round of the playoffs. But the lineup's unprecedented susceptibility to strikeouts made them highly vulnerable to droughts in run-scoring. Our worst fears came to fruition in the ALDS. The Twins brought home a 1-1 series and then spiraled into a sea of strikeouts at home, piling up 28 Ks while scoring three runs over 18 innings in Games 3 and 4. Like that, the ride was over. To some extent, the Twins are strikeout-prone by design, and that's fine. "We're trying to find a way to build the best offense," Derek Falvey said after the season. "That will come with some version of strikeouts, but hopefully some version of getting on base and hitting for power." With high-K, high-power player types like Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien and Ryan Jeffers serving as key parts of their lineup, "some version of strikeouts" is going to be a reality. Still, the Twins will benefit from finding ways to dial back the whiffs elsewhere. Of the top 12 teams in strikeouts this year, only two (the Twins and Phillies) made the playoffs. Even if the K will inherently be part of Minnesota's offensive DNA going forward, the front office would be wise to counterbalance this trait rather than leaning into it as they did with the Joey Gallo signing. Swapping out Gallo's presence for one of the following free agent targets, on its own, would make a big impact on the team's overall proneness to strikeouts, helping shift them away from an identity that was overwhelming defined by the whiff in 2023. Whit Merrifield, LF/2B Merrifield did strike out 100 times this year, but don't let the triple digits fool you – he compiled strikeouts only because he played so much. As usual, he was very durable and useful to his team, accumulating 592 plate appearances. Merrifield's 17.1 K% was well below the league average, and would have been lowest of any Twins hitter who played 50+ games. He has appeal as a righty bat capable of mixing in at multiple spots. Jung-hoo Lee, CF The KBO star is setting his sights on Major League Baseball after a prestigious career in Korea. Contact hitting his Lee's calling card – in 2022 his strikeout rate (5.1%) was the lowest in the league as he batted .349 with a .996 OPS and won MVP. His 2023 season was more of same, albeit cut short by an ankle injury. There's an added element of uncertainty in translating Lee's game from another league to the majors, but it seems fair to say that putting the bat on the ball will be a strength. Carlos Santana, 1B/DH Santana is a guy who can hit for power without striking out a ton, which is a combination the Twins would welcome. The veteran switch hitter has long been renowned for his discipline, with a 14.8% career walk rate alongside a 16.8% K-rate. His age (38 next April) means he'll likely be available on a one-year deal, but also increases the concern of steepening decline. Justin Turner, 1B/3B Turner's appeal is very similar to Santana's: late-30s veteran who can play first base and hit some home runs without a corresponding avalanche of strikeouts. In fact, Turner's offensive totals with Boston this year (23 homers, 31 doubles, 96 RBIs) were very similar to Santana's (23 homers, 33 doubles, 86 RBIs) and his 17.5% K rate was also nearly identical to Santana's. Turner is a year older but has a more consistently strong offensive track record. Lou Hennessy wrote this morning about Turner's potential for a Nelson Cruz-like impact. Michael Brantley, LF One of the best bat-to-ball hitters in the game. Since 2017, Brantley has the fourth-lowest K% (10.8%) among MLB players with 2,000+ PAs. He also has a .305/.364..461 slash line during that span. Brantley is is 36 and has a long history of injuries; he's also not a great fit for the Twins' needs as a LH-hitting corner outfielder. But as a free agent target specifically designed to uproot the team's strikeout-centric culture, few would be better suited. View full article

Sonny Gray in his age 26-28 seasons: 4.59 ERA, 4.20 FIP Lucas Giolito in his age 26-28 seasons: 4.43 ERA, 4.39 FIP You don't have to look very far to see why it is unwise to assume a pitcher's "best years are behind them" because of a mild mid-career lull. The Reds decided not to make that assumption with Gray after his tough age-28 year in NY and they got an All-Star who received Cy Young votes for their faith.

If Giolito fizzles, Varland is there and ready to fall back on. That's kind of the whole point of my premise here. The Twins have enough SP depth (if they're confident in Paddack, which I am) to take a bit of a gamble on a high-upside FA. Other teams who need more of a sure thing could shy away from Giolito, which gives MN an advantage potentially.

Realistically, the Twins aren't going to spend on a guy like that in free agency. They may well trade for one. But they could sign Giolito in addition, why not? IMO Giolito is the absolute best SP you could realistically expect the Twins to sign in FA. And that's not such a bad thing? They built the league's best rotation last year without any need for using free agency. EDIT: Bumping this piece I wrote from last offseason on the problems with buying high on free agent starters. This is why I don't really agree with the prevailing thought in these comments that the Twins should sign someone who was great in 2023. It's not that predictive and usually leads to overpaying massively. (The prime example I used at the time? Carlos Rodon.)

The Twins are very familiar with the long-time AL Central starter, whose tumultuous entry into free agency could create a mutually attractive short-term opportunity. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports Last time the Minnesota Twins saw Lucas Giolito, it didn't go well for him. Cleveland had acquired the right-hander off waivers from the Angels, in a last-ditch effort to catch Minnesota in the AL Central, and started him in the opener of a crucial September series. Giolito was clobbered for nine earned runs in three innings, and the Twins won 20-6. That was that. Before seeing Giolito at his worse, we'd all seen plenty of Giolito at his best. Prior to his drop-off over the past couple seasons, he starred for the White Sox as one of the American League's better starting pitchers, receiving down-ballot Cy Young votes in 2019, 2020, and 2021. During that span the righty posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.54 WHIP in 428 innings. He was clear-cut frontline starter. THAT is the pitcher you're looking for to replace Sonny Gray. But it's not the pitcher Giolito has been over the past two years. In 2022 he was oddly mediocre, posting a 4.90 ERA and 4.06 FIP despite being healthy enough to make 30 starts. In 2023 he pitched reasonably well for Chicago in the first half before being traded to the Angels the deadline, waived in late August, and claimed by Cleveland. His disastrous results after being traded (6.96 ERA) tanked his season, but Giolito still didn't really look like his prime self before then. In other words, there's plenty of warranted skepticism surrounding Giolito as he makes his first foray into free agency. That's unfortunate for him, but could play into Minnesota's favor as they look to secure a Gray replacement within certain constraints and parameters. As I detailed recently, the Twins front office will be somewhat handcuffed in their pursuit of a playoff-caliber starter to offset the loss of Gray in the rotation, because of their massive payroll commitments for 2025. This makes it hard to envision signing a free agent to a contract that includes a salaries in the $20M+ range over multiple years. Giolito's tough circumstances heading into free agency mean it's unlikely he'll be offered a multi-year deal with those kinds of annual salaries. Like many others who've been in similar situations, he will essentially face two choices: take a one-year "make good" deal to re-establish his value and hit the market again, or settle for a multi-year deal a relatively low AAV (i.e. the Phil Hughes path). Either one of those avenues could potentially make him a fit for the Twins. If a number can be reached that makes sense, there are several things to like about Giolito: At 29, he's one of the younger starters on the free agent market. From the 2019-through-21 seasons, he was everything you would want in a frontline starter and co-ace for Lopez. Giolito's cumulative fWAR during that span (11.3) was better than any three-year stretch in Gray's career, even though it included the COVID season. Giolito has lost a bit of velocity since then, but only about 1 MPH, and he rebounded a bit this year from his 2022 dip. His best pitch, the changeup, continues to get whiffs at a 35% clip. He really stands out in terms of extension (~90th percentile every year), which we know is something the Twins love and feel they can optimize around. If Giolito were to hit the open market two years ago, following his 2021 season, he would have been in line for a $100 million deal if not $200 million. Obviously he can't erase what's happened since then, but the fact remains: he's shown to be that caliber of talent, isn't yet 30, and has no clear injury concerns. Even in a down season, Giolito still showed glimpses of the frontline starter he's been in the past. In fact, before Chicago traded him at the deadline he was a solid approximation of what you'd realistically hope to get from Gray next year: 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. Then he got abruptly traded twice in a short span, and everything fell apart. Not saying you can totally dismiss the last two months, especially in light of his previous season, but it's a pretty big caveat and a legit reason to believe. If Giolito is open a betting himself on a one-year deal to re-establish his value and score the kind of free agent contract he feels he deserves, I'd be in favor of bidding aggressively to come out on top. Extending the QO means the Twins had $20 million earmarked for Gray next year, and I'd be up for using most or even all of that to convince Giolito on a one-year pact. (Especially because, like Gray, the Twins could QO him after the season if he bounces back.) Lucas Giolito was originally drafted in 2012, the same year as Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. His career has since following a long and winding path, but now, the time feels right for him to reunite with his fellow stars of the draft class and join Minnesota's suddenly-reputed pitching program. He's a risk, to be sure. But the Twins' existing rotation depth enables them to take such a risk, and the payoff would be well worth the gamble on the right terms. View full article

Is anyone in the AL Central going to mount a serious threat against the Twins in 2024? Cleveland's outlook does not inspire confidence. Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports A recently published offseason FAQ with Mandy Bell, the Guardians beat writer for MLB.com, included this passage: "Will the Guardians be active in free agency? After their two big (and uncharacteristic) free-agent signings in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino failed to pan out for them this year, let’s assume they’ll avoid that for 2024." I don't begrudge Mandy for the response, which probably reflects the team's actual point of view with accuracy. But it's a statement that is sad on multiple levels. The uncharacteristically "big" free agent contracts referenced here, signed at a point where Cleveland was defending AL Central champs and looking to take the next step forward: Josh Bell: 2 years, $33 million Mike Zunino: 1 year, $6 million Neither of these were terribly ambitious signings. Zunino was a bargain-bin pickup who performed accordingly. Bell was a relatively high-profile FA acquisition by Cleveland's standards, but he barely cost more than Minnesota paid for their eventual backup catcher. Bell was actually decent in the first half before the Guardians traded him at the deadline to dump his salary, while still in the middle of a tight race. He'd have certainly helped them down the stretch, as he posted a 119 OPS+ with Miami after being traded, so claiming he "failed to pan out" is a bit disingenuous. What the question-and-answer above really gets at, in essence, is that the Cleveland Guardians under owner Larry Dolan are cheap as hell. It reminds me of the Twins back in their late-Metrodome era, which is a period I'd gladly never revisit as a fan. It's ironic how the Twins have now swung into the position of Goliath to Cleveland's David from a spending perspective, adding to their advantages in talent and continuity. The Guardians franchise is in a weird moment of transition. Terry Francona has retired, leaving them to search for a new manager and preparing for a culture reset. This doesn't seem like the most attractive gig – trying to fill the shoes of a legend while dealing with the encumbrance of limited spending. I'll be honest, if I'm an in-demand manager on the hunt for a job (hello, Craig Counsell), and seeing some prime vacancies open with the Mets and Astros for example, I'm gonna look at what Cleveland did in 2023 – basically giving up in the middle of a wide-open race during Tito's last hurrah – and be really soured by it. This franchise exudes "don't give a s***" vibes. Will that same mentality guide their offseason? If Mandy Bell's inclination about their free agency intentions is correct, this seems like a fair expectation. And if they're not looking to upgrade aggressively following a 76-win season, with the reigning division champs ready to come back strong, then what is Cleveland's offseason strategy? It makes you wonder about a guy like Shane Bieber, who is set to make more than $12 million in his final year of arbitration and team control. Now would be the time to trade him, albeit at less than peak value following an injury-marred season. If Cleveland isn't going to make any kind of competitive push, you even have to wonder about Jose Ramirez, who's got five years remaining under contract but could be open to waiving his no-trade clause if it means going somewhere with a real motivation to win. Minnesota will be keeping a close eye on the team that has most often been their chief rival in the AL Central over the past five years. The White Sox are in disarray and the Royals are hopeless. Detroit might be the most credible threat in the division if the Guardians aren't even going to mount an offensive. I wouldn't dismiss the Tigers off-hand, but they've got work to do. They finished below .500 with a minus-79 run differential this year (expected W/L = 73-89) and they, like the Twins, are losing a top starter to free agency in Eduardo Rodriguez. I don't think these developments should be impact Minnesota's offseason approach per se – the goal for 2024 should be to win 100 games and earn a first-round bye, regardless of what the rest of the division does – but a passive winter from the rest of the Central might make them more inclined to stand pat, hold court, and wait until the trade deadline to make their big push. At the very least, it all contributes to why I view this as a likely slow-moving offseason for the Twins, who are tracking a number of external factors that will influence their own path forward. View full article

Pavano had been incredibly healthy and durable when he hit the market, 55 starts and 420 total innings over the previous two years. I don't think durability was the on-field factor holding him back. Honestly not sure what off-field issues you are alluding to but I don't remember that being talked about during his free agency journey. The draft pick compensation was a really big issue in my recollection.

The Twins would love it if their reigning MVP would return to run it back on a one-year deal. Most assume he won't. But, are we totally positive? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Major League Baseball's current free agency model enables teams to extend a qualifying offer to free agents who are looking at big offseason paydays. As MLB explains: "In the qualifying offer system, clubs wishing to receive compensatory Draft picks for the loss of a free agent can make a one-year 'qualifying offer,' worth the mean salary of MLB's 125 highest-paid players, to their impending free agents prior to the onset of free agency." This year, that equates to a one-year, $20.3 million deal. Given their payroll outlay circumstances, such a short-term pact to bring back the co-ace of of their 2023 rotation would be ideal for the Twins. That's why offering the QO to Gray is a total no-brainer. It's widely expected he will decline the offer and test free agency, which would yield a silver lining in the form of highly-valuable 2024 draft compensation. But then, the Twins front office is left to try and replace a Sonny Gray-sized hole in their rotation. The dominoes will soon begin to fall. Once the World Series concludes, teams have five days to decide whether to extend the QO, a mere formality on the Twins' part. From that point, Gray will have 10 days to accept or reject the offer. In other words: we're closing in on a three-week window that will decide Gray's future (or lack of one) with the Twins. Personally, I think it is very likely he will reject the qualifying offer and ultimately sign elsewhere. But I'm not as convinced as everyone that it's a total lock. Here are a few factors that lead me to believe it's at least possible Gray could shock the world and accept the qualifying offer to return and run it back with the Twins for one more year. He cares more about winning than money. "I'll say it because it's honest: Money is not the ultimate factor for me," Gray said after the Twins were eliminated from the playoffs. "Never has been. Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately.” Granted, this was uttered in the same breath as Gray acknowledged he was "going to become a free agent,” but hey, people can change their minds over time. And maybe, as he reflects on the season that was, and the landscape ahead, the veteran starter will come to realize he'll have a tough time finding any situation as prime as Minnesota if he wants to confidently make it back the playoffs. With a young emergent core powering a star-led team in a horrible division, the Twins are well positioned for success in 2024 and beyond. Meanwhile, an oft-mentioned destination for Gray in the offseason is St. Louis. I get that it's a storied franchise but the Cardinals finished in last place with 71 wins this year. They got dusted by the Pirates. Gray wants to be valued appropriately, which is very much his right. Twenty million bucks is a pretty appropriate value, though it wouldn't come with any additional years of guaranteed money, and that is obviously the trade-off he must weigh. Then again, this is a guy who openly contemplated retirement in July. "It's not about the money," Gray echoed at the time. "It's whether you still enjoy it, and does your family still enjoy it.” Sounds like someone who might see value in keeping his options open. A one-year contract that pays almost twice the highest salary he's ever earned would accomplish that. And it might be even more appealing when considering this: a realistic assessment of his situation suggests Gray might not be able to command quite the contract he hopes to land. Several factors may limit Gray's market as a free agent. Would Gray make more in a total free agency deal than the $20 million he would be guaranteed from accepting the QO? Undoubtedly. Will he make enough to render that decision completely moot? I'm not so sure. Don't get me wrong, Gray is definitely hitting the market at a favorable time. He's coming off one of the best seasons of his career, in which he was one of the league's best pitchers. And this free agent class is fairly light on high-end starters. He'll have plenty of interest. But front offices are fully aware that Gray is now 34, and that his performance in 2023 bore marks of unsustainability (ERA: 2.79, xERA: 3.69). They know he's historically had durability issues, and that his results owed partially to a manager who protected him from running up pitch counts or facing lineups too many times. (Ironic, eh?) I am not by any means trying to downplay what Gray did this year, nor the impact he brought to the Twins. He was very deservingly team MVP. All I'm saying is, it's easy to see how the right-hander might view his "appropriate value" differently from an analytics-minded executive trying to project his production over the next three or four years. Especially when you account for that pesky draft pick compensation. The qualifying offer is, ostensibly, beneficial for MLB's competitive balance. But it has a tendency to screw over free agents by limiting their market through no fault of their own. This is a path that's been traveled by many players over the years, including a former Twin who stands out as a pertinent example. Carl Pavano joined the Twins in 2009 as a veteran trade acquisition, 33 years old at the time, and pitched some of his better late-career ball in Minnesota. After co-leading the 2010 rotation, he came up short in a postseason start, leaving a sour taste as he looked ahead to free agency. Sound familiar? The Twins offered Pavano the 2010 version of a qualifying offer. (Remember Type-A and Type-B free agents??) He declined, and was thus saddled with a tag meaning the team signing him would need to forfeit a high draft pick in addition to winning the salary bid. Unsurprisingly, Pavano found a depressed market and ultimately ended up returning to the Twins, who got him at a discount (2 years, $16.5 million) specifically because they didn't need to give up a draft pick. To be clear, Gray is a much better pitcher than Pavano, who astonishingly won 17 games with a 4.8 K/9 rate in 2010 – ah, what a different era of baseball – but examples like this are not uncommon. Unfortunately for Gray, his perceived weaknesses will only be magnified through the scope of his elevated cost, and that's a reality he needs to reckon with. So, you look at this from Gray's perspective. He values winning above all, and just came close to making a deep postseason run. He isn't exactly sure how much longer he wants to keep playing. He has an opportunity to return for one year and $20 million, starring on a very likely playoff contender, in a situation where he's acclimated and comfortable. And then, however that plays out, he can finally hit free agency for the first time, with no risk of running into another qualifying offer. He'll be fully in control. Maybe with a World Series title under his belt? Hey, we're just riffing here. Ultimately, Gray will probably decide the upside of testing the open market over the comfort and assurances of staying in Minnesota for one more year. No one could blame him. All I'm saying is, I'm holding out hope until I officially hear otherwise. View full article

The two long-tenured Twins are now under contract for 2024. That doesn't necessarily mean either will be playing in Minnesota next year. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports In a move that shouldn't have caught anyone off-guard, the Minnesota Twins announced on Thursday that they are exercising their respective team options for 2024 on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Among current Twins players, only Byron Buxton has been around as long as these two long-time fixtures, who are now locked into their contracts for the coming season. Both have their question marks, to be sure. Polanco has dealt with continual lower-body injuries in the past couple of seasons, and Kepler's performance was perpetually underwhelming up until the midway point of 2023. Still, at the prices their options entail -- $10 million for Kepler, $10.5 million for Polo, these decisions were truly no-brainers. Each player would command far more on the open market, and as such, will draw trade interest if the Twins are so inclined. This procedural move sets the stage for an offseason that will likely be dominated by trade speculation around both Polanco and Kepler. The right fielder and second baseman are proven commodities who were both arguably made redundant by the emergence of standout rookies this year -- specifically, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Kepler's offensive breakout and outstanding right field defense make him a strong asset. Polanco has been one of the most consistent offensive performers in the middle infield across the league. Shortcomings aside, these are good players still in their primes, with short-term and relatively low-cost commitments. That will make them attractive to other clubs, but also makes them attractive to the Twins, who clearly like both players a lot beyond what they bring to the field. They also like depth. The future for both Kepler and Polanco remains to be seen, but for now, as expected, they are under contract to play for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. View full article

Uncertainties around health and TV revenue, along with this general front office's M.O., should temper expectations around any bold early action from the Twins this winter. Image courtesy of John Bonnes, Twins Daily What do the Carlos Correa signing(s), the Josh Donaldson signing, Pablo Lopez trade, and the Kenta Maeda trade all have in common? (I mean, aside from being some of the biggest moves the Twins have swung under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine?) They all happened fairly late in the offseason. The Donaldson and Lopez acquisitions occurred in late January. The Maeda trade was completed in February. Correa signed for the first time when spring training was already basically underway. None of these moves were made in November or December, and it's tough to think of many high-profile examples under this front office that were. That's just how they operate, pretty much at all times. They're going to be patient and let things play out. It's a guiding philosophy that has generally served them well. This offseason I would expect them to lean especially hard into their penchant for patience, for a couple of key reasons: Health uncertainty with key players Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano ended up being two of the front office's more impactful additions this year. It is no coincidence that both were acquired late in the last offseason. The Twins traded for Taylor in late January, as it became apparent to them that starting-caliber depth behind Byron Buxton was more of a necessity than a luxury. They signed Solano deep into February, with camp already getting underway, to add a veteran piece behind a gradually recovering Alex Kirilloff at first base. Both Buxton and Kirilloff are once again health question marks this offseason, and in both cases we'll likely have more clarity on where they stand in a couple of months. How they rebound physically from their latest surgeries will influence the team's course of action at first base and in center field, which stand out as the biggest (only?) needs from a position-player perspective. Revenue uncertainty with no TV deal The Twins' lucrative broadcast deal with Bally Sports North has ended, leaving one of the team's biggest sources of revenue in total flux. The organization needs to figure out a plan for next year, and it's unclear how quickly that might take shape. No matter what the parameters of the new arrangement, it seems very unlikely the Twins will come close to matching the $55 million in telecast rights from their previous deal. As of this moment, it's a major wild card for planning. The Twins, like many teams, tend to set their payroll as a fractional proportion of team revenue, and right now we just don't know what that's going to look like in 2024. Taking all of this into account alongside the front office's general proclivities, I would not expect to see the Twins make any major moves until January or February. However, outside circumstances could obviously affect this timeline. With trades figuring to be a main channel of addition this offseason, the Twins might need to step up and pull the trigger on someone they like, lest he be dealt elsewhere. So, I'm not saying you should tune out until the new year. But I am saying that fans shouldn't be surprised by minimal rumors and movement from the Twins leading up to, and during, the Winter Meetings next month. View full article

These three Twins prospects struggled with performance or injuries this year. All will have something to prove coming off disappointing seasons. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Yesterday we took a look at the three biggest risers from the Twins system in 2023, comparing our preseason top prospect rankings against our latest postseason update to highlight three players who made huge jumps: David Festa, Tanner Schobel and Kala'i Rosario. Today, we'll take a look at the flip side: the prospects who fell farthest in our rankings from the beginning of the season to the end. No one should count any of these guys out, but they'll be looking to rebound and build back following campaigns that can only be labeled as major setbacks. Two of these players were acquired in high-profile trades, while the other was a high-stakes draft gamble that has so far failed to pay any dividends. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Preseason Rank: 6 Postseason Rank: 17 In 2022, Woods Richardson closed out a stellar first full season in the Twins system with an impressive major-league debut: five innings of one-run ball in Detroit. The right-hander, acquired alongside Austin Martin in exchange José Berríos at the previous deadline, excelled at both Wichita and St. Paul, setting himself up as ready-made MLB depth. He was riding high. This year was a totally different story. Woods Richardson's first half was a disaster – through 12 outings (11 at AAA, one in MLB), he had a 7.66 ERA and with a .932 opponent OPS. His velocity, stuff, and command all lagged. The big righty bounced back in the second half, posting much better numbers down the stretch for the Saints, but even then his peripherals were nothing special. He finished with a 4.91 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 96-to-61 K/BB ratio in 114 innings. Age has always been on SWR's side, but at 23, he's not THAT young by prospect standards anymore. It's too soon to give up on him, but it might be time to start thinking hard about a future in the bullpen. (He completed six innings only three times in 22 starts at Triple-A.) Connor Prielipp, LHP Preseason Rank: 7 Postseason Rank: 13 High-risk, high-reward. That was always the book on Prielipp, and unfortunately we've seen all of that risk come to fruition in a young yet tumultuous pro career. The hope was that the left-hander's elbow troubles were behind him after undergoing Tommy John surgery while still in college at Alabama, where he was limited to just 28 total innings in three years. His upside when healthy was high enough for the Twins to set aside his injury concerns and draft the Wisconsin native 48th overall in 2022. Unfortunately Prielipp, who didn't pitch after being drafted last year, made only two appearances this year – one in April, one in June – before another surgery was deemed necessary for the elbow issues that continued to plague him. Over the past four years, between college and the pros, Prielipp has thrown a total of 34 ⅔ innings. There's no framing that fact, nor back-to-back UCL repairs, in any kind of positive light. But there is some semblance of good news: Prielipp's most recent surgery, an increasingly common variation of Tommy John surgery that involves an internal brace, is considered a bit less serious than the standard version. Prielipp turns 23 this offseason. He's got a long way to go in terms of getting healthy and building up strength, but the upside remains high if this second surgery takes. Jose Salas, 2B/3BSS Preseason Rank: 8 Postseason Rank: 23 The Twins thought they were getting themselves a find in Salas, who was added by the Marlins as an additional piece alongside Pablo Lopez in January's Luis Arraez trade. They weren't the only ones. Baseball Prospectus was very high on the teenaged infielder in the spring, ranking him #93 in their global top prospects list. The enthusiasm was easy to understand: Salas had put forth an impressive effort at age in 19 in Single-A, flashing speed, power, and contact hitting skills. Plus, he has good genetics – his younger brother Ethan Salas is considered a top-five prospect in baseball. Unlike Ethan, Jose did not improve his stock in 2023. It was a tough campaign for the 20-year-old as he onboarded into the Twins organization. Salas slashed .188/.263/.268 while spending nearly his entire season at High-A Cedar Rapids. His budding power took a nose dive and his plate discipline spiraled. The good news is that Salas still has plenty of time to turn it around, although he will (I believe) be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason if the Twins don't add him to the 40-man roster (which they presumably won't). Perhaps this underwhelming season will temper the interest of other teams and prove to ultimately be a blessing in disguise for Minnesota – a la Jose Miranda. View full article

These three Twins prospects put forth impressive seasons in the minors that caused them to rise swiftly in our rankings. Keep an eye out for them in 2024. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of David Festa) The Twins Daily team recently updated our top prospect tracker with end-of-season rankings and blurbs. This provides an opportunity to compare against our preseason list in search of the biggest changes. Today we'll look at three prospects who made the biggest jumps upward over the course of the season. Within, we find three potential drafting success stories for the Twins front office. David Festa, RHP Preseason Rank: 13 Postseason Rank: 5 Despite having a scout's frame, 6-foot-6 and lean, Festa wasn't in high demand coming out of Seton Hall University in 2021. His performance there hadn't been terribly impressive and the right-hander's fastball was averaging around 90 MPH. The Twins selected him in the 13th round, seeing him as an intriguing candidate for their velocity-boosting methods. That has worked out well. Festa was really good in 2022, posting a 2.43 ERA during his first full season as a pro. But it's not uncommon, or necessarily even that telling, to see college pitchers dominate A-ball out of the gates. Which is why he was kept in check at #13 in our preseason rankings. Festa's 2023 campaign did much to remove any doubt of his legitimacy, vaulting him into the organization's top five. Looking past the 4.19 ERA in inflated offensive environments, there is much to like about the 23-year-old's performance this past season. For one thing his strikeout rate exploded: between Double-A and Triple-A, he piled up 119 strikeouts in 92 ⅓ innings, good for an 11.6 K/9 rate. His once-pedestrian fastball now routinely touches 97-98 on the gun. He's got several ingredients the Twins love: extension, velocity, and a good breaking pitch with potential to get better. Festa is challenging Marco Raya for the title of top pitching prospect in the Twins organization. Tanner Schobel, 2B/3B Preseason Rank: 18 Postseason Rank: 10 The Twins went big on Schobel, drafting him with their second-round pick in 2022, on the basis of a breakout junior year at Virginia Tech. The infielder launched 19 home runs and slugged .689 in 59 games for the Hokies before the Twins took him 68th overall. In his pro debut last year, the newfound power was nowhere to be found. In 136 plate appearances between rookie ball in Low-A, he managed just one home run, posting a .237/.353/.298. Thus the lukewarm placement on our preseason list this year. Stepping up to High-A despite his struggles in pitcher-friendly Florida State League, Schobel looked much more like the guy Minnesota targeted in the draft. In 77 games at Cedar Rapids, he slashed .288/.366/.493 with 14 homers, 10 doubles and five triples, launching drives all over the field. Schobel moved up to Wichita around the All-Star break, and while his performance there wasn't nearly as strong, he held his own as a 22-year-old facing more experienced competition. All in all, his 2023 campaign placed him firmly on the radar. Kala'i Rosario, OF Preseason Rank: NR Postseason Rank: 11 The Twins drafted the Hawaiian high schooler in the fifth round of a five-round draft in 2020, a season where scouting information and intel were severely limited by COVID. It was the epitome of a longshot, a shot in the dark. For a while, it was looking like a swing and a miss – albeit a low-stakes one. Rosario wasn't bad in the Florida Complex League (2021) or Florida State League (2022), but he wasn't an offensive standout. And as a right fielder whose glove and speed are not assets, the standard is high. The 2022 production was so ordinary that Rosario didn't even get a nod in our honorable mentions preceding the top 20 countdown in February. The 21-year-old completely flipped his narrative in 2023. He arrived in Cedar Rapids and torched the Midwest League, slashing .252/.364/.467 with 21 homers and 94 RBIs in 118 games for the Kernels. He ranked sixth among MWL hitters in OPS and fifth in wOBA thanks to a potent power-patience combo. Now Rosario is playing in the Arizona Fall League, and hitting absolute tanks. He's developing into a prototypical slugging right fielder before our eyes. Speaking of prototypical sluggers, Yunior Severino also deserves mention in this discussion of ascendant prospects. His 35-HR season between Double-A and Triple-A lifted him from unranked in the spring to #12 – just behind Rosario – in our latest update. These risers in the Twins system all offered a lot of reason for encouragement and hope in 2023. But it wasn't all good news. Check back in tomorrow and we'll examine the flip-side of the coin: the prospects who saw the biggest drops in stock this year. View full article

The Minnesota Twins have signed players to a number of precedent-shattering contracts in the past few years. Let's take a look at how these long-term commitments might affect their ability to pursue other big-time deals this offseason. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports When the current front office took over, the Twins had almost no history of handing out nine-figure contracts, nor anything remotely close. The only time Minnesota had ever surpassed the century mark (in millions) was Joe Mauer's $164 million extension, signed after his MVP season in 2009. Over the past four years, Derek Falvey has repeatedly reset the standard for this franchise. First he signed free agent Josh Donaldson to a $92 million deal. Then it was Byron Buxton receiving a seven-year, $100 million extension. Later in the same offseason, Carlos Correa received a $103 million contract, which was really more of a one-year pact, but the Twins backed it up emphatically the following winter with a $200 million blockbuster to bring him back. Then, for good measure, they signed newly acquired starter Pablo Lopez to the biggest contract this franchise has ever given a pitcher ($73.5 million). These big-ticket moves show how much the Twins have evolved in terms of spending habits over the past five years, and their increased payrolls have underscored this shift. Still, we all know there is a limit, and that now becomes more of a planning consideration because the books aren't as clean as they once were. Here's a look at the six guaranteed contracts Minnesota is currently committed to, and how the player salaries map out in the coming years (note that everything after 2028 for Correa is a vesting option): In looking at this chart, one thing becomes very clear: the Twins have a whole bunch of money tied up in 2025. With Lopez's salary escalating massively (this would have been his first post-FA season), Correa making the highest salary of his entire contract, and Paddack getting a healthy boost, the Twins will owe almost $95 million to these six players alone. (For the record, the team's total payroll in 2014 was $85 million.) So what does this tell us? Additional spending money will probably be sparse. The Twins had a record ~$150 million payroll this year, and while that might grow a little by 2025, it probably won't grow much. In fact, considering certain economic trends, it seems more likely that ownership will be looking to dial back a bit. The good news is that Minnesota's young wave of talent will bring a lot of cost efficiency to the roster, which is a big part of the appeal. But here too, salaries will be escalating as players enter and advance through arbitration. Bottom line: the front office is probably going be pretty limited this offseason in terms of what they can commit to the 2025 payroll. This makes it a little difficult to envision any sort of high-scale contract for a free agent – even a relatively reasonable deal to bring back Sonny Gray (i.e. 3/60). The flip side is that all of these big payroll hits are delayed by one year. Those six guaranteed contracts will collectively pay out $25 million less in 2024 than in '25. This means that unless the Twins are looking to scale back spending substantially next year (and that is possible) there is a clear opportunity to invest in a short-term solution at a high price. Needless to say, Gray accepting the qualifying offer – which would equate to roughly a one-year, $20 million contract – would be ideal. That's very unlikely. But there are other ways to take advantage of this situation. For example, the Twins might be more open to taking on the full salaries of a trade target such as Paul Goldschmidt or Pete Alonso, who we highlighted as potential pivots from Alex Kirilloff at first base. There are also a number of high-profile and high-upside starting pitchers in free agency who could be seeking one-year deals to bolster their value – if the money is right. Frankie Montas stands out as one intriguing possibility. Recognizing the realities of the Twins' books and their nuanced salary commitments going forward can help properly set expectations for what they realistically can and won't do this offseason. If we're being honest, they've already probably made all their long-term bets, but that doesn't mean they can't find ways to go big this winter. View full article

Update: Jordan Luplow has also been updated, per DHP, so we can remove him from the 40-man and arb discussions.

Minnesota's championship window has been thrust open. The front office's decisions this offseason could prove pivotal in dictating whether the Twins take the next step or stumble. Here's a primer on what lies ahead, including arbitration decisions, pending free agents, and 40-man roster considerations. The Twins are in good shape heading into this offseason. They just won the AL Central behind a youth-fueled surge in the second half, and made noise in the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years. They're able to bring back a majority of their roster, and could field a contending team without making a single move. The front office has a stable base to build from as they aim to elevate the Twins to a commanding presence in the American League. But they also have some challenges in front of them. Looking ahead to a high-stakes offseason, here's a rundown of key things to know about the roster, the payroll, and big decisions that loom on the horizon. TEAM OPTIONS AND ARBITRATION DECISIONS The first thing the front office will need to sort out, before figuring out who they want to add, is who they want to keep. Many players (like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton) are under guaranteed contract, but in other cases the Twins can exercise optional control over players via either contract options or arbitration. (Arb estimates courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.) Team Options for 2024: Jorge Polanco ($10.5M) Max Kepler ($10M) Arbitration Eligible in 2024: Kyle Farmer ($6.6M) Willi Castro ($3.2M) Caleb Thielbar ($3M) Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M) Alex Kirilloff: ($1.7M) Jordan Luplow: ($1.6M) Jorge Alcala: ($1M) Nick Gordon: ($1M) Plenty of no-brainers among this crop, but also some tricky decisions. It's fair to say several players on the list are trade candidates, with Farmer and Kepler standing out as most likely candidates. PENDING FREE AGENTS These are the members of the 2023 Twins who are set to hit the open market after the World Series concludes, starting with the reigning team MVP: Sonny Gray, SP Michael A. Taylor, CF Emilio Pagán, RP Kenta Maeda, SP Donovan Solano, 1B Joey Gallo, 1B/OF With the exception of Gallo, these all feel like players the Twins need to either re-sign or replace in their roles. Finding a way to offset the (presumed) loss of Gray atop the rotation is priority No. 1, but it will also be important to develop strong depth and contingencies behind Buxton in CF and Kirilloff and 1B, as Taylor and Solano provided this year. 2024 ROSTER AND PAYROLL PROJECTION The table below shows a very-early layout of the Twins 2024 roster as it currently projects, absent any offseason moves. For now, this projection assumes that the team brings back Kepler, Polanco, and all of their arb-eligible players sans Luplow and Gordon. As you can see, the baseline payroll in this scenario is a little under $120M, or about $30 million short of their 2023 payroll. Whether spending will increase, decrease, or stay the same is a rather complex topic for another day. But in any case, there should be some spending money available and the Twins can easily open up more. 40-MAN ROSTER AND THE RULE 5 DRAFT In order to protect their newly-eligible prospects from the Rule 5 draft, and to make room for new offseason additions, the Twins will need to create some space on the 40-man roster. They got a head-start on that process over the weekend by outrighting Andrew Stevenson and José De León. That leaves them at 36 – subtracting all soon-to-be-free agents – which is a pretty good place to start. Especially since there are still several players still on the roster who could be removed without much trepidation (Luplow, Oliver Ortega, etc.). The Twins are going to need some of that room, and not only for hopeful outside additions via free agency and trades. Several minor-leagues are entering the phase of eligibility for the Rule 5 draft, which means Minnesota must add them to the 40-man roster by mid-November or risk losing them to another team. These players include: Jair Camargo, C Austin Martin, OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF Yunior Severino, IF DaShawn Keirsey Jr., OF Michael Helman, IF Cody Laweryson, RHP Jose Salas, IF Chris Williams, 1B I'd argue that at least the top three on that list are absolute must-adds, and you can make strong cases for several others. These are the decisions and opportunities that will present themselves once the offseason gets underway. And it's not too far off. Make sure you stay tuned into Twins Daily all winter for unrivaled coverage of all the Hot Stove action. View full article

He was just named a Gold Glove finalist, but the data suggests Carlos Correa's formerly elite glove is not what it once was. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports When it comes to defense in baseball, often the defensive metrics just don't match up to the eye test or general consensus. One famous example would be Derek Jeter, who won five Gold Gloves in his career and was widely considered a premier shortstop, despite the fact that fielding statistics consistently rated him as below-average. Carlos Correa, conversely, is not a player whose fielding has been overrated relative to statistics. If anything, the opposite is true. Or it was. Metrics like Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) consistently viewed Correa as one of the most impactful shortstops in the league throughout most of his career. From 2018 through 2021, here's where Correa ranked among shortstops in OAA, and among all MLB players as a percentile factor. 2018: 23 OAA – 2nd in MLB, 100th percentile 2019: 11 OAA – 7th in MLB, 96th percentile 2020: 4 OAA – 9th in MLB, 94th percentile 2021: 10 OAA – 6th in MLB, 96th percentile Genuinely elite defense, year after year. Aided by his incredible arm, quick reactions, and strong instincts, Correa overcame a lack of standout foot speed to continually rank as one of the rangiest shortstops in the game. Culminating with a Platinum Glove award in 2021 that recognized him as the best overall defender in the game, fielding was a huge part of Correa's value proposition when the Twins signed him in 2022, and then re-signed him to a historic long-term deal in 2023. Yet, ever since joining the Twins, Correa's defensive metrics have been completely out of line with his previous track record. In his first season here, Statcast had Correa producing negative-3 Outs Above Average, which ranked 32nd among shortstops (100+ attempts) and in the 18th percentile among all big-leaguers. We all wondered if perhaps that 2022 season would prove to be an outlier, and Correa's defensive numbers would bounce back toward career norms this year. Turns out he did, a little. Correa ranked 25th among shortstops with 1 OAA, a figure that placed him in the 64th percentile for big-leaguers. Not bad, but much more average than great, and probably not a result that lines up to the eye test for most Twins fans and (apparently) Gold Glove voters. Elsewhere, signs of a sudden yet sustained drop-off are even more vivid. Here's how Correa has rated out according to FanGraphs' Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF) metric over the past six years: 2018: 17.3 in 110 games 2019: 9.6 in 75 games 2020: 5.6 in 58 games 2021: 14.5 in 148 games 2022: 2.1 in 136 games 2023: 3.5 in 135 games What to make of this stark decline in statistical defensive proficiency? It's hard to say that the metrics are missing something in Correa's performance given how consistently they assigned him massive defensive value prior to his time with the Twins. I think there are a few different reasons that Twins fans might perceive Correa's defense as more positively impactful than it has verifiably been. One is simply reputation. When you're treated by media and popular narratives as a great defender, it's a rep that tends to gain traction and stick, regardless of evidence to the contrary. Jeter benefited from this. Another thing is that Correa is just a really good, smart, smooth ballplayer. He doesn't commit many errors. It may not be all that visibly noticeable when he misses a grounder that he'd have gathered a few years ago, or that some of the other top shortstops in the league would get to. On any given play, the incredible caliber of his arm alone could easily convince someone he's a top-tier defensive SS regardless of any other data. There's also this: Correa is a clutch. He steps up and makes big plays in big moments. We certainly saw that in the playoffs. The Athletic's Eno Sarris wrote this week about the concept of clutchness in baseball. His data-driven analysis is an interesting one, but what I find most striking is the way performances in big moments shape our memories and perceptions. As Eno put it in a radio interview, "If you have an emotion tied to a memory, you're going to remember it more." In this light, it's easy to see why momentous plays like Correa's game-ending backhand stab in Houston, or his heady throw home against Toronto – not to mention all those big-time highlights in years past – have an outsized influence on the way we think of him. Emotions and subjectivity have a major impact on the so-called eye test, which is why many observers are prone to overrate Correa's current defensive impact just as they did with Jeter throughout his career. So what does this all mean? Not a ton in the short term, necessarily. Even if you agree, based on the evidence, that Correa is no longer quite as strong defensively as his Gold Glove nomination would suggest, no one's arguing that Correa is a liability at shortstop, or that he should be moved somewhere else next year. Even as his range diminishes, Correa remains a steady and sure-handed infield captain. His leadership and intelligence at a position where smart split-second decision-making is invaluable will help C4's continue to be an asset at shortstop even if his physical tools are beginning to dullen. But the undeniable data trend does lead you to wonder. What's at the root of this statistical defensive decline? Is he already showing signs of aging at 29? Are the health concerns in his lower body – an ankle that's structurally worrisome, and now a nagging case of plantar fasciitis – taking their permanent toll? These will be things to keep an eye on moving forward. It is worth noting that Correa was ready to move to third base if he signed in New York, and the nature of his contract with the Twins (salaries declining quickly in the later years) seems to imply that an eventual position switch is expected from all parties. Everyone seems to understand that it's a matter of if, not when, Carlos Correa will stop playing shortstop. Even if he wins a Gold Glove this year, a deeper look his declining defensive value – not to mention the physical state of his body – makes clear that the day could come sooner than many anticipate. View full article