Nick Nelson

A coalescing young core, a pitching staff with staying power, and a star-studded farm system – all in a complete mess of a division. The Twins are set to embark on another AL Central dynasty. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Watching events unfold on Monday and Tuesday night at Progressive Field was no doubt a painful experience for Guardians fans. The Twins obliterated Cleveland by a combined score of 28-9, sealing up the division in uncontested fashion as the hapless home team endured one of the most embarrassing high-stakes beatdowns I've ever seen. But that's only the start of it. On Tuesday night, the Twins effectively sewed up their third division title in five years. Based on the landscape of the American League Central, there are likely going to be more on the way. For Guards fans, getting shoved all over their home yard in the biggest series of the year was bad enough. But worse yet, these blowouts were being driven by emerging young stars, set to power the Twins offense for years to come. Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner have been leading the charge for a revitalized Minnesota offense, which obviously bodes very well for the future. On the same day, Brooks Lee launched a grand slam at Class-AAA St. Paul, while Walker Jenkins tripled and walked twice at Class-A Ft. Myers, improving his OPS to 1.192. Those two currently rank 18th and 16th on MLB.com's list of global top prospects, and it'd no surprise to see one or both reach the top 10 next spring. Going through a pair of losing seasons (2021-2022) sucks, but for the Twins, it yielded two of the most heralded young talents in the game. On the other side of the clobbering in Cleveland, a much bleaker outlook is taking shape. Legendary manager Terry Francona has made clear he is retiring at year's end. A major turnover is about to take hold, and based on the front office's 'sell' moves at the deadline – dealing two quality vets who were under control for 2024 – they don't seem inclined to make a push next year. Cleveland will surely continue to pump out solid young arms, but as we've seen this year, that's not enough on its own. Their system lacks the star power of the Twins, and their present club can't remotely contend with Minnesota's young talent nucleus. Despite their major flaws and question marks, the Guardians still seem like the most credible short-term threat in the division. Detroit's supposed emergence from the darkness was derailed this year as they fell flat again, heading toward a seventh straight sub-.500 finish. They have some promising young players but in reality it's shown no signs of coming together. (Aside from when they're playing the Twins, that is.) The White Sox just zapped their front office as they crawl toward the end of a disaster campaign that currently has them 30 games under .500. The contention window they built toward by trading their stars and enduring seven years of cellar-dwelling resulted in one division title and zero postseason advancements; now they're back to the drawing board. In classic Sox fashion, Chicago conducted no meaningful outside search for fresh outside leadership and hired Chris Getz internally. A culture shakeup! We don't even really need to talk about the Kansas City Royals. I'm truly glad they got that title in 2015 because their fans deserve it, based on the endless purgatory they've endured before and since. This sad rudderless franchise, trudging through another 100-loss season, has no real hope of a turnaround in the remotely near future. Realistically, is there anything that can happen during the coming offseason that would give any of these teams – Guardians, Tigers, White Sox, Royals – even a .500 projection for the 2024 season? They're bad! These franchises aren't rebuilding, they're smoldering. Then you have the Twins. They're gonna run away with the division this year despite getting very little from the centerpiece players they just signed to long-term contracts. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are down but they are not out – MVP-caliber talents who haven't yet turned 30. They'll be surrounded by a core of young talent that includes Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Lee, Ryan Jeffers and Alex Kirilloff. Guys like Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach should not be counted out. The farm is rock-solid. And for the first time in forever, the Twins actually have some stable continuity on the pitching side. Pablo López is locked down for years to come, as a durable 27-year-old All-Star starter with elite swing-and-miss stuff. He's accompanied by Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as controllable and proven mid-rotation starters, as well as a returning Chris Paddack who will be 28 and full-go next year. That's only the starting point! In the bullpen, there's work to be done long-term but Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax form a rock-solid base. When the Twins hired him seven years ago, Derek Falvey spoke of building a model for sustainable contention – a concept that felt foreign to a franchise six years removed from its last playoff appearance, and reeling from a 103-loss Total System Failure. Today we can safely say we've seen Falvey's vision take hold. Assuming they finish the job this month, 2023 will mark Minnesota's fourth postseason berth in seven years under Falvey and Thad Levine. It's easy to feel confident there are more on the way, given all we've discussed. Yes, that owes in part to the utterly dismal state of the American League Central. But who cares? All that matters is taking advantage of the situation you're in, and the Twins are very well poised to do just that. The longest postseason drought in pro sports lies in the crosshairs. The Minnesota Twins are likely about the to get a bunch of shots at conquering their demon. The first is suddenly less than a month away. View full article

The Minnesota Twins missed a golden opportunity to slam the window on Cleveland at home, leaving a glimmer of hope in the division race. But they bounced back with a strong weekend in Texas to keep their distance in the Central, with a five-game lead. Now comes the final head-to-head showdown. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/28 through Sun, 9/3 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 71-66) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +51) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 132 | MIN 10, CLE 6: Lewis Grand Slam Keys Comeback Game 133 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Offense Comes Up Empty in Loss Game 134 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Twins Fall in Extras, Waste Gray Gem Game 135 | MIN 5, TEX 1: Homers and Bullpen Power Victory Game 136 | MIN 9, TEX 7: Resilient Offense Picks Up Keuchel Game 137 | TEX 6, MIN 5: Spirited Comeback Fall Shorts This Time NEWS & NOTES The Twins missed out on an unexpected waiver bonanza on the final day of August, as their waiver priority position kept them just out of range for key veterans who became freely available due to salary dumps. Making matters more painful, the Guardians – who effectively kept their hopes alive by winning two of three from Minnesota last week – claimed two relievers that could've definitely helped the Twins: Reynaldo Lopez and Matt Moore. Absent any external help, the Twins made a pair of promotions on September 1st when rosters expanded, adding reliever Brent Headrick and outfielder Andrew Stevenson. These might both be temporary additions, with some notable reinforcements on the way. Alex Kirilloff is rehabbing in St. Paul and looking about ready for a return – although the team is claiming they don't intend to activate him for the upcoming Cleveland series, preferring he get more at-bats to validate the recovery of his shoulder. Jorge Alcala, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart are all trying to make it to the Twins bullpen in September, with varying levels of optimism. More immediate is the potential arrival of Louie Varland, who appeared in relief for the Saints for the first time on Thursday and looked phenomenal, touching 100 MPH multiple times. It appears Varland is being groomed for a short-burst bullpen role, in which he could be highly effective. With all these moving parts in motion, the Twins also made a pair of IL moves last week: Oliver Ortega was placed on the shelf with a lumbar strain, and replaced by Kody Funderburk, who had an eventful first week in the majors. Michael A. Taylor, who's been bothered by a hamstring issue that flared up on Saturday night, also went on the injured list, conveniently making room for the return of Willi Castro. Jose Miranda went on the 60-day IL to create 40-man space for Stevenson, likely putting the stamp on a lost season for the 25-year-old. HIGHLIGHTS In a familiar story for the second half, the bats paved the way for Minnesota's success, with the lineup scoring 24 runs in their three victories to overcome some shaky pitching performances. And, in a familiar story for pretty much the whole season, Donovan Solano was the scrappy veteran plug sparking the offense. Solano fueled the big comeback win on Saturday night, going 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBIs. It was one of three multi-hit games in a week that saw him finish 9-for-17, lifting his OBP to .379. Few could have guessed when they signed him in late February for $2 million, essentially an offseason afterthought, that Solano would become such a pivotal and indispensable fixture on the 2023 roster. But he most definitely is. Royce Lewis has the looks of an instant superstar, repeatedly delivering game-changing hits in pressure-packed spots. His rookie jolt has energized the entire team. Lewis' theatrics over the past week included a go-ahead grand slam on Tuesday, a game-tying three-run blast on Sunday, and then another game-tying single later in that same game. Another key contributor to the offense, and a critically important one, was Jorge Polanco. The long-tenured Twin is finally starting to find his groove after a long season of rehabbing and shaking off rust. He was simply a monster against Cleveland and Texas, picking up six hits in 21 at-bats including two doubles and two homers. Polanco drove in seven and also drew six walks. His productivity has revitalized the No. 2 spot in the order. Often overlooked by fans for whatever reason, Polanco has been a standout hitter for most of his career – and a clutch one, too. His absence in the first half was a major reason for the offense's persistent struggles. As he's showing, Polanco's return alongside Lewis can be a crucial factor in their ongoing emergence, with big moments looming ahead. Much maligned over the past couple weeks, the Twins bullpen enjoyed some healthy redemption. They picked up Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel after rough outings on Monday and Saturday, rattling off clean innings and setting the stage for comeback victories. Friday night's win in Texas offered a hopeful preview of Rocco Baldelli's successful October formula: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Jhoan Duran following six good innings from the starter with three perfect frames to close it out. Nine up, nine down. The starter in that game, Joe Ryan, was stellar for a second straight time after coming off the injured list, striking out seven with no walks over six innings of one-run ball. From all appearances (and results), he looks like his old self, which is a welcome development as Maeda and Keuchel go off the rails. Ryan is lining himself up for a place in a potential postseason rotation that would almost certainly be fronted by Sonny Gray, the American League ERA leader. Gray was brilliant once again in a huge game against Cleveland on Wednesday, firing seven shutout innings in an (unsuccessful) effort to will his team to a possibly season-clinching win. Gray has been downright phenomenal all year, setting himself up for a big free agent pay-day. I'd imagine he's got a pretty tight grip on Game 1 starter status at this point. For all the manufactured drama about Baldelli and the quick hooks, Gray pitched into the seventh in four of his six August starts, and ranked third among all major-league pitchers in innings thrown for the month, behind only noted workhorses Framber Valdez and Sandy Alcantara. LOWLIGHTS In spite of all the big-time relief performances last week, the bullpen's defining moment was unfortunately its worst: allowing Gray's gem on Wednesday to go to waste. That game was a medley of disaster moments – Jax and Thielbar giving up big hits, Duran skipping a wild pitch with victory a strike away, Funderburk coughing up the back-breaking home run in extras. You can't expect a bullpen to be perfect, even when going good, and these kinds of things happen. However, this latest breakdown occurred at the most inopportune time, as the Twins sought to snuff out any legitimate hope for the Guardians and instead gave them a gasp of air. Cleveland channeled that momentum into a series victory against the Rays over the weekend, and now the Guardians will be hosting Minnesota at Progressive Field this coming week with a chance to whittle the division lead down to striking distance. Annoyingly, Cleveland will be upgraded since the showdown at Target Field a week prior, with Lucas Giolito set to start on Monday, and Lopez and Moore now available in relief. Losing just one game in the standings, the Twins mostly kept their distance over the past week, but they also didn't create any further ground, meaning no one can get comfortable. The ongoing stakes of each game provide cause for apprehension, as the back end of Minnesota's rotation unravels and close games keep slipping away. I fully believe the Twins are built favorably for a postseason run: a top-heavy squad with strengths at the front of the rotation, the top of the lineup and the back of the bullpen. But they need to get there first, and they need to do it without wearing down the cornerstones they'll be counting on. TRENDING STORYLINE Are the Twins really going to leave Kirilloff in Triple-A for the Cleveland series, given its immense stakes? Especially when the alternative is sticking with Joey Gallo, who is bottoming out at the end of another bad season? Gallo is hitless in his past 23 plate appearances, and he committed multiple frustrating gaffes on the bases in the past week. He's un-rosterable at this point. The front office's odd gamble from last offseason cannot be viewed as anything more than a total failure, and yet Gallo has hung around into September anyway. Now the assorted developments that prolonged his stay are coming full-circle, with Kirilloff mashing on his rehab stint and looking ready to supplant the struggling vet. It sounds like the Twins are just not quite ready to make that move. Bafflingly. I very much understand the general sentiment to take it slow with Kirilloff, but these are special circumstances. If he's healthy, he's healthy, and wasting swings in Triple-A seems counterproductive when doing so means downgrading the quality of the Twins roster in such a significant way. The Twins cannot afford to have Gallo receiving any meaningful playing time in Cleveland this week while Kirilloff keeps playing to form in the minors. If that scenario plays some role in an undesirable result in the series, the Twins would be about as rippable for their overly conservative approach here as at the deadline. Of course, stated plans can change. We'll see what happens on Monday. Kirilloff started in St. Paul on Sunday night (where he homered for a second straight day), seemingly suggesting he will not be heading to Cleveland, at least for the opener. LOOKING AHEAD It's all on the line this week. Both the Twins and Guardians are in position to make a decisive stand in Cleveland. A sweep for the Minnesota would all but lock down the division. A sweep for Cleveland would reduce the lead to two with 22 to play. Any other result will more or less keep this race vaguely alive. The Twins will be throwing their top three starters in a series that figures to have postseason vibes. Buckle up. MONDAY, 9/4: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Lucas Giolito TUESDAY, 9/5: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Tanner Bibee WEDNESDAY, 9/6: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Gavin Williams FRIDAY, 9/8: METS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Dallas Keuchel SATURDAY, 9/9: METS @ TWINS – RHP Kodai Senga v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/10: METS @ TWINS – LHP David Peterson v. RHP Pablo Lopez View full article

The Cleveland Guardians snagged both impact waiver relievers away from the Twins on Thursday, leaving Minnesota with no remaining external answers to its rapidly deteriorating bullpen corps. Help might be on the way for that unit from within, via recovering or converting arms, but it's the offense's reinforcements that should make fans most confident in the Twins avoiding a bullpen-fueled disaster in September. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Over their past 16 games, the Twins have gone 9-7. In doing so, they've barely nudged their AL Central lead – from 4 ½ games on August 12th to 5 games on August 31st. They're not in a bad situation, but it could feel a lot safer. And one can easily argue that if not for the bullpen's lapses in August, it would feel a lot safer. Five of the team's seven losses over the aforementioned span have seen a reliever tagged with the "L," reflecting how many games have pivoted from win (or tie) to loss on the bullpen's watch. We all have memories etched in our heads from recent weeks of key relief pitchers imploding on the mound, with disastrous results. From Dylan Floro's batting practice session to Griffin Jax's multiple meltdowns to Jhoan Duran's costly wild pitch this week, it's been a rough slog. There's no question the bullpen has been lagging and running thin, causing the front office's complacency at the deadline to look even worse than it did at the time. But that's now water under the bridge. So is the missed waiver claims. I'm not here to tell you that the bullpen hasn't been bad – only that they haven't been as bad as you might think. I'm also not here to tell you that September reinforcements are going to magically turn the bullpen around – only that it might matter less than you think. Given how many Twins games took a turn for the worse with relief pitchers on the mound lately, you'd think their bullpen ranked near the bottom of the league for August in Win Probability Added (WPA). But they didn't; they ranked 12th-highest in the majors, or better than average. (Granted, still behind almost every true contender.) By WPA, the bullpen had an overall neutral effect on the team's outcomes this past month. Again: that's not to say they've been good. They just haven't been flat-out sabotaging the team as some would like to believe. The reason it SEEMS like the relievers have been blowing everything is a familiar story from the first half: slim margins being created by the offense leaving almost no margin for error. Wednesday's game against Cleveland was a perfect example. Handed a two-run lead from Sonny Gray after seven, relievers gave up single runs in the eighth and ninth inning to tie the game, then things unraveled in the 10th. Should they have really ever been in the 10th, putting rookie Kody Funderburk in that unfortunate and ill-fated spot? They wouldn't have been, if not for the lineup going 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position, with the top five hitters combining to go 2-for-18 in the game. This has fortunately been less frequent in the second half, with the offense emerging to make stretches like Tuesday and Wednesday – where they scored four runs in 19 innings – more the exception than the norm. The better news is that Minnesota's offense has a chance to become substantially better in the very near future. I'm trying not to get myself hyped on the idea of both Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff – currently at Triple-A on rehab stints, with the potential to return as soon as next week – stepping in and immediately performing at their peak level. But ... is it that unthinkable that one or both could be somewhere close? They're rested up after spending some time on the sidelines. They're feeling good enough that Buxton's playing center field and Kirilloff is playing back-to-backs out of the gate on rehab. When these two are healthy and on, you can make a pretty good case they are the two best hitters on the team, and it's not like we haven't seen glimpses (I'll be it unsustained glimpses) of this prowess from both at times in 2023. Yeah, I'm intrigued by the idea of trying Chris Paddack as a reliever, or converting Louie Varland to the bullpen, or hoping Brock Stewart can come back healthy and at the same level. But those are all somewhat experimental long shots. Buxton and Kirilloff are proven commodities and cornerstone players. Their returns to the roster are likely far more imminent than the others. And while getting them back might not directly improve the bullpen, it can definitely reduce the bullpen's negative impact by reducing its pressure to constantly perform. Even with the relievers wobbling, when the Twins score, they win – they went 10-3 in August when putting up five or more runs. Reduced pressure on the bullpen also means reduced reliance on the high-leverage options at the back, which would potentially provide guys like Duran and Jax with some needed rest ahead of the postseason. If you're hoping the bullpen can be saved from within, then you should keep an eye on the reinforcements making their way back from injury. Just maybe not the ones you're thinking of. View full article

After striking out at the trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins received a surprising second chance to add key pieces, with non-contenders unloading contracts on waivers and making them available to the highest-priority bidder. The Twins were unable to take advantage of this opportunity, but the team trailing them in the Central did. Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports (Reynaldo Lopez) The Los Angeles Angels initiated the talent dump earlier this week, with word coming out that they were placing Lucas Giolito, relievers Reynaldo Rodriguez and Matt Moore, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on irrevocable waivers. Among other players who ended up joining this out-of-nowhere collection of quality veterans suddenly hitting the open market: Yankees OF Harrison Bader, Mets RHP Carlos Carrasco and White Sox RHP Mike Clevinger. The Twins found themselves in a favorable position as a first-place team with a record barely holding above the .500 mark. Since waiver priority is based on team record (from worst to best), Minnesota was ahead of most other contending teams who might have interest in acquiring these players for nothing but salary. Most, but certainly not all. It seems their position wasn't quite favorable enough. While the Twins reportedly placed claims on multiple players, apparently none of their targets made it to them in the waiver process, with fringe contenders readily scooping up these essentially free assets. Among those contenders, the Cleveland Guardians, trailing the Twins by five games in the AL Central with a month to go. Cleveland added Giolito to the rotation as well as Lopez and Moore to their bullpen, quickly bringing a pair of familiar foes back to the division while upgrading their small postseason chances a bit. While it's hard to blame the Twins for this particular instance, given their limited ability to influence the outcome, this really does underscore the front office's lack of action at the deadline, when they had full control over their ability to add talent. Jordan Luplow has been horrendous in the RH outfielder role and the bullpen is springing constant leaks. The Twins could've desperately used several of the players that went through waivers today, and while that's not necessarily at fault, they did put themselves in this position of desperation to begin with. Instead, they'll have to hope Byron Buxton and a handful of relievers on the comeback trail will be enough to offset their current depth weaknesses and keep Cleveland at bay. There's no more external help coming. View full article

The Twins faced a big challenge last week, facing off against first-place teams for six straight days as their overworked bullpen continues to falter. They rebounded from a tough series in Milwaukee to take three of four from a potential future playoff foe, the Texas Rangers. In holding their own against tough competition, the Twins held their ground in the AL Central as the clock ticks down on the regular season. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/21 through Sun, 8/27 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 68-63) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +47) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (6.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 126 | MIL 7, MIN 3: Floro Fumbles in Middle Innings Game 127 | MIL 8, MIN 7: Bullpen Blows Lead, Bats Can't Keep Pace Game 128 | MIN 7, TEX 5: Jeffers Delivers Go-Ahead PH Homer Game 129 | MIN 12, TEX 2: Twins Rock Rangers in Dominant, Spicy Win Game 130 | TEX 6, MIN 2: Ryan Solid in Return But Pen Implodes Game 131 | MIN 7, TEX 6: Twins Erase Deficit, Win with Walk-Off BB NEWS & NOTES Last year around this time, the Twins were being constantly bombarded by crushing injury news, setting up a disastrous September that would ultimately remove them from playoff contention. This year, things are trending in a much more favorable direction. Instead of receiving update after update filled with setbacks and sad-trombones, much of the information shared out from the team lately points toward positive progress and momentum. Lately we've learned that: Byron Buxton is tentatively working toward a September return to center field (part-time, at least). Brock Stewart is ramping up again and reporting no pain after a couple of recent bullpen sessions, with the possibility of a rehab stint on the horizon. Chris Paddack, now 15 months removed from his second Tommy John surgery, is throwing in the mid-90s down in Florida and being eyed for a possible bullpen role in October. Alex Kirilloff has been taking swings and building up after giving his shoulder some time to rest. He'll take part in live batting practice on Tuesday and if that goes well, a rehab assignment could follow later in the week. Jorge Alcala (remember him?) is feeling good and will throw live BP against Buxton and Kirilloff. Alcala himself could be in line for a rehab assignment in the near future if things go smoothly. It's probably not reasonable to expect all of these guys to return and make a big impact before year's end, maybe not even most of them. But even just getting back a couple of them at semi-full capacity could make a big difference, given this first place team's makeup and needs heading into September. We're talking about some major proven talents in that mix. Already the Twins have activated Joe Ryan, who tossed five innings of one-run ball in his return against the Rangers on Saturday. Their rotation is essentially at full strength heading into the end of August, albeit with Bailey Ober starting to wobble under his workload a bit and Dallas Keuchel adding an interesting element. With 31 games left on the schedule, Minnesota holds a six-game lead over the Guardians in the Central, as they prepare to host Cleveland at Target Field with their top three starters on the mound. It's getting late early for the Guardians, who will be matching up their .450 road winning percentage against Minnesota's .590 clip at home. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins offense shows no real signs of slowing down. They gave it their all last week, pushing across 36 runs on 53 hits in six games, launching 14 home runs, as they tried to keep pace with a leaky bullpen. Royce Lewis once again took center stage in his second week back. He homered in Wednesday's game against Milwaukee, then homered again as part of a 3-for-3 Thursday night against Texas, and added a game-salvaging grand slam on Sunday. Perhaps most encouraging out of all that: Lewis showed some discipline, drawing three walks against four strikeouts. Monumental as it was, Lewis' slam against the Rangers ranked merely as the second-most exciting home run of the week for Minnesota. It's tough to compete with a pinch-hit, go-ahead, two-run blast in the eighth inning. Yeah, Ryan Jeffers did that. Michael A. Taylor kept the power surge pumping with three home runs. Max Kepler went 8-for-18 with a homer and three doubles, lifting his OPS on the season north of the .800 mark. Kyle Farmer had a much-needed productive offensive week, collecting five hits in 11 at-bats, including a pair of bombs. In a dramatic turnaround from the first half, the Twins now have an offense that can run with the big boys, and that's before you factor the potential returns of Buxton and Kirilloff. They also have a verifiable ace-level performer atop their rotation, which is not something we've been able to say in a long while. Sonny Gray spun another gem on Friday, tossing seven innings of one-run ball to lower his ERA to 3.05. That figure ranks sixth in all of baseball, and Gray is fifth in fWAR behind only Zack Wheeler, Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen and Kevin Gausman. If not for his paltry win total, Gray would be a prime contender for Cy Young consideration. But while the rotation and offense keep offering reasons to believe in this team's viability, the mounting bullpen lapses are preventing that confidence – along with their control of the AL Central – from becoming firmly solidified. LOWLIGHTS This past week, same as the last week, troubling breakdowns in the relief corps were the main source of consternation. On Tuesday, Dylan Floro entered with a one-run lead after Ober's five solid innings, then gave up five runs on six hits in one inning, turning a winnable game into a lopsided loss. The following day, Minnesota's top four relievers – Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán – combined to give up five runs on seven hits in 4 ⅔ innings. On Saturday, Jax had his second total meltdown in 11 days, entering in the ninth of a tie game and giving up four earned while recording just one out as he completely lost command of the strike zone. The week ended on a high note for the bullpen, which came through brilliantly in a 13-inning grudge match on Sunday, but that hardly negates the alarms being raised by this unit. The rough stretches for Thielbar – who gave up two runs in three innings, though he threw a dominant 11th frame on Sunday – and Jax are most worrisome. Jax has a 6.48 ERA and 6.39 FIP in 16 ⅔ innings since the All-Star break, with dwindling strikeout rates and deteriorating control. This isn't just bad luck anymore. If Jax continues to trend in the wrong direction, the long-shot scenarios of Stewart or Alcala coming back and handling high leverage work suddenly become rather essential instead of luxurious. Otherwise the Twins might need to get creative by, say, converting Louie Varland into a short-burst relief role, which they've hinted at. TRENDING STORYLINE Willi Castro started a rehab assignment in St. Paul over the weekend and his return to the Twins is looking imminent, though an anticipated paternity list trip will delay him a bit. Rocco Baldelli will welcome his cherished gadget player, with Castro bringing speed, defensive versatility and switch-hitting ability to make himself a skipper's best friend. The question of course becomes: who goes to make room? The most likely answer seems to be Jordan Luplow, who has cooled off significantly after a hot start for the Twins, batting .080 with one RBI in his past 10 games. That would however leave the Twins lacking for a quality RH outfield bat, which is not a role Castro fills particularly well. Personally, I wonder if the Twins might think about placing their slumping-again shortstop Carlos Correa on the injured list to rest up his feet. He's looked rough lately and was especially brutal on Sunday, where he went 0-for-4 with a GIDP and error. The Twins can get by for awhile with Farmer and Lewis splitting time at short – especially with Castro returning to provide depth at third. They'd miss Correa's glove, but wouldn't be losing much offensively. And if the Twins think this plan would have any real chance of getting C4 into a better place by the time October rolls around, it's worth a shot. LOOKING AHEAD Cleveland is coming to town, with their season more or less on life support. The Guardians could vault themselves back into legitimate contention by sweeping the series, thus closing the gap in the Central to three games, but anything less than a series victory is going to leave them in pretty dire straits. Meanwhile, a sweep by the Twins would essentially seal the deal, leaving them ahead by nine games with 28 left to play. A tough series in Texas follows over the weekend, so needless to say, Minnesota needs to be focused on taking care of business in their final home series against the shabby Clevelanders. Get it done here and you can more or less put it on cruise control for September. MONDAY, 8/28: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Xzavion Curry v. RHP Kenta Maeda TUESDAY, 8/29: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Gavin Williams v. RHP Pablo Lopez WEDNESDAY, 8/30: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Tanner Bibee v. RHP Sonny Gray FRIDAY, 9/1: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Max Scherzer SATURDAY, 9/2: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Jordan Montgomery SUNDAY, 9/3: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Jon Gray View full article

Hans Birkeland wrote a piece here shortly after the deadline suggesting this very thing. Honestly it's very plausible.

Your opinion is that trying to upgrade the middle relief on this contending team would be trading for the sake of it? No real need there?

Your advice is noted and dismissed but thanks anyway Van. Do you actually have a point to make or anything interesting to say? Or are you just going to keep objecting to nothing in particular?

Well I was referring more to acquiring him last year as the example to follow – he was a little better at that point, and there were plenty like him on this year's market. But yes, I would feel better about the outlook for the bullpen with Fulmer in it as opposed to without him. That's kinda why I'm so bewildered, it would not have taken much to satisfy the minimum need here. There cupboard is just empty. You wouldn't take Fulmer over Winder/Sands/Ortega/Balazovic?

Yes because the whole point is to take hindsight out of it and evaluate the decisions based on how they were made at the time. Did you think they were horrible trades at the time? If so I'm sure it's documented here since you're a very regular commenter. Let's see it. Maybe the Twins will win the World Series this year in spite of doing nothing at the deadline. It was still bad decision-making, bad process.

This is fair. I was gonna go with an actual hot take headline like "Actually the 2022 Deadline Was Good" but it felt like a bridge too far lol

At the 2022 trade deadline, the Twins front office evaluated their needs honestly, and acted decisively based on the information they had available. Regardless of the outcome, I commend their approach. The opposite is true of this year's downright negligent handling of the trade deadline. We are already seeing the cost, and it threatens to be far greater than a few lost prospects. Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports With the benefit of hindsight, no one would say Minnesota's big trades at the deadline last year worked out. If they could go back and do it all over again, knowing what they know now, the front office certainly would not have traded away a bunch of prospects for Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez. But you know what? They didn't have the benefit of hindsight when they made those moves. All they had was the information available in real-time, which was this: The Twins were in first place in a winnable division, and they had some clear flaws that they needed to address if they were going to make a real run at the thing. Last July, those needs were pretty significant. They needed a credible frontline starter to plug in alongside Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, and a high-caliber reliever to complement Jhoan Duran in the late innings. The Twins swung big. They gave up decent prospect packages to acquire Mahle and Lopez all along with extra years of service for both. The front office knew the risk factors attached to both players -- Mahle's injury concerns and Lopez's unconvincing long-term track record -- but didn't know both would come fully to fruition. The front office also couldn't have guessed that even if both pickups played exactly up to optimistic expectations, it wouldn't have mattered because the entire roster collapsed in an injury epidemic. All the Twins front office knew at the time was where they were at and what they needed. They acted accordingly. The last takeaway you'd want the club to draw from this experience is that risks aren't worth taking. After all, some of this regime's greatest and most impactful moves have been the payoffs of bold risk-taking, for example: Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers for Kenta Maeda. Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top draft pick Chase Petty to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Trading their reigning batting champ Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez. Those moves led us to where the Twins are at today, with an elite rotation featuring three playoff-caliber starters. And for some reason, upon reaching this long-awaited moment they've been building toward, the front office passed up the opportunity to provide much-needed help for that unit and the rest of this team as it aims to reach the postseason and snap a 20-year curse. The team's needs at this past deadline were lesser in scale, but no less clearly evident. They needed bullpen help -- ideally a high-leverage arm, but even middle relief depth would help. Injuries to Brock Stewart and Jorge Alcala, combined with Jorge Lopez proving unusably bad, left the team's planned late-inning core severely lacking, in need of support. Adding one or two relatively trusted relief arms of the Michael Fulmer ilk would've done worlds for this unit's depth and stability. The cost for such assets would've been vastly less than a Mahle or Lopez haul. It was, seemingly, a pretty simple assignment. Alas, the Twins front office failed it. Aside from a swap of struggling relievers that brought in Dylan Floro, they sat on their hands. And the negligence of this approach is only growing more apparent and upsetting as the exact scenario they were supposed to be protecting against plays out before our eyes. Minnesota's bullpen has fallen apart since the trade deadline. Over the past 20 days they've collectively been sub-replacement level with a -0.2 fWAR that ranks 26th in the majors. The have a 6.13 ERA during this span, compared to 3.01 for the starters. The relief corps completely melted down in Milwaukee over the past two days, blowing mid-game leads in both losses. Floro was at the head of the struggles with a nightmare outing on Tuesday. Now the Twins head into a four-game series against the Rangers in a beleaguered state, with Duran having thrown 33 pitches in taking the loss Wednesday. I'm not trying to oversimplify things here, by suggesting that one or two reliever additions at the deadline were going to definitively change the course of this bullpen. Maybe the acquisitions wouldn't work out; we've been there. Maybe they wouldn't have made enough difference; if Duran and other late-inning arms can't get on track, there will be no saving this bullpen. But to not even try? To not even add a single impact reliever who might reduce your reliance on Emilio Pagan to succeed in high leverage, or Caleb Thielbar to stay healthy, or Jax and Duran to not get run into the ground? It's truly one of the most baffling things I've ever seen. And if the Twins fall short in the playoffs, AGAIN, because they are one quality relief arm short ... or worse yet, miss the playoffs entirely because their bullpen isn't equipped for the task of holding up down the stretch ... it'll be tough to forgive this bizarrely complacent lapse from a front office that uncharacteristically played scared this time around. View full article

Ah yes, I now I realize that was very devoid of context. It's a snapshot from the rolling xwOBA charts on Statcast, which progressively track hitter success against a pitcher. Basically what that shows is that Duran was holding opponents way below the league average consistently, but it's risen sharply (and sustainably) of late. But starting to dip back down now!

Royce Lewis delivered in his much-anticipated return from the injured list as the Twins enjoyed a restful, winning week at home and widened their lead in the AL Central to a season-high six games. As we turn toward the home stretch, the Twins are in the driver's seat, with the best odds to win their division outside of the MLB-dominating Dodgers and Braves. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/14 through Sun, 8/20 *** Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 65-60) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +43) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (6.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 121 | MIN 5, DET 3: Wallner Grand Slam Lifts Twins to Win Game 122 | DET 8, MIN 7: Rare Jax Implosion Proves Decisive Game 123 | MIN 5, PIT 1: Twins Cruise Behind Pablo's Gem Game 124 | PIT 7, MIN 4: Early Leads Evaporates for Gray Game 125 | MIN 2, PIT 0: Dallas Deals in Series-Clinching Shutout NEWS & NOTES As expected, Royce Lewis was activated as soon as the Twins returned home from their long road trip, starting at third base and batting third in Tuesday night's series opener against Detroit. To make room on the roster, Willi Castro was moved to the injured list with a mild oblique strain, delaying any hard roster decisions for now. Later in the week, Minnesota swapped out Jordan Balazovic for Oliver Ortega in the leaky bullpen. Joe Ryan started a rehab assignment in St. Paul, where he pitched on Friday night and threw four innings of one-run ball. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins offense has rounded into form. They didn't exactly end the week on a high note, scoring two runs as the Pirates stymied them with a bullpen game, but that kind of day is now more the exception than the norm. Minnesota entered play on Sunday ranked second among American League teams in runs scored since the All-Star break, and first in wOBA. Games like Sunday's, where pitchers need to be near-flawless to win, have become far more rare. The team's improvement is being fueled by an emerging young core of hitters, which is especially exciting. Lewis made a huge impact right off the bat, coming through with a clutch RBI single in his first game back, and then following with a three-hit showing on Wednesday. Edouard Julien opened up with a four-hit game and drove in four runs on the week. Matt Wallner continues to establish himself as a real difference-maker with his power and poise. His game-winning grand slam on Tuesday was without question the biggest highlight of the week, salvaging victory from the jaws of defeat against a Tigers team that weirdly tormented the Twins all year. Wallner almost did it again the next day. Pablo López extended his scoreless innings streak to 18 with another stellar outing on Friday night, shutting out the Pirates over six to improve to 4-0 with a 0.36 ERA in August. A terrific showing, but López he was shockingly upstaged two days later by Dallas Keuchel, who managed to carry a perfect game through six innings before getting chased by a one-out double in the seventh. He finished with 6 ⅓ frames of scoreless one-hit ball, lowering his ERA to a respectable 4.85 after getting clobbered by the Phillies his last time out. Keuchel is obviously very limited by his sluggish velocity and inability to miss bats, but on Sunday he executed his gameplan to perfection against a bad team, attacking the zone and inducing endless grounders. The results were as good as anyone could have asked for. It was fun to watch, and cool to see for a player who's by all accounts a good guy and teammate. That doesn't necessarily mean the Twins should be planning to let him make his next scheduled start, but we'll get to that later. LOWLIGHTS The Twins bullpen is becoming a big problem. And it's one that the front office will increasingly face scrutiny for after failing to address it in any meaningful way when they had the chance. The swap of struggling relievers that brought aboard Dylan Floro – Minnesota's only move resembling a deadline addition – hasn't been all that helpful, as he's posted a 1.64 WHIP through eight appearances as a Twin. Floro came in against Pittsburgh on Saturday and immediately yielded a run-scoring hit, then walked two straight batters in the next inning. Ugly stuff. The idea that a middle of the bullpen carried by the likes of Floro and Balazovic, whose brutal outing on Saturday earned him an immediate demotion to Triple-A, is looking like some very faulty logic from the Twins brass. Worse yet, the shortcomings of the middle relievers are being magnified by the lapsing high-leverage horses in the late innings. Griffin Jax had his worst performance of the season on Wednesday, coughing up four earned runs in one inning against a bad Detroit offense, with each run proving very costly in an eventual 8-7 loss. The appearance raised his ERA from 2.96 to 3.62, just like that. To his credit, Jax did bounce back with a couple of big outings in the Pittsburgh series. Meanwhile, Jhoan Duran has been far from dominant for some time now. His previously unhittable repertoire has been anything but over the past couple months – Duran has gotten through an appearance without giving up a hit only once since June. He gave up four knocks in three appearances last week, including his sixth home run. (The same total he allowed all of last year.) It's tough to know what to make of Duran's diminishing effectiveness in this regard. The velocity and stuff are still there for the most part. He still struck out seven hitters across the three innings of work last week. But opponents are finding ways to solve his arsenal, with nearly a .900 OPS against the flame-throwing right-hander since the start of July. Duran needs to make some adjustments of his own in the remaining weeks of the regular season to turn the tides. It might be fair to say that no other single player on the roster is more pivotal to Minnesota's chances of success in the playoffs. TRENDING STORYLINE Who starts next Saturday, when the rotation spot presently occupied by Keuchel swings back around? That's now the big looming question. It figures to be an important game against a tough lineup with Max Scherzer scheduled as the opposing starter. Do the Twins view Ryan as ready? He only threw 71 pitches on Friday night and while the results were solid, he did give up a home run and was oddly erratic, throwing only 38 of those pitches (53%) for strikes. Keuchel should not be viewed as an option despite his successful results on Sunday against the Pirates. It's almost impossible to envision him putting forth a competitive outing against a Rangers offense that leads the AL in OPS by a sizable margin. Louie Varland is the wild-card here. He's been excellent of late at Triple-A (0.70 ERA in his last four starts) and, while not an ideal matchup against Texas given his HR-proneness, he probably would give the Twins their best chance of the three. Unfortunately, the schedule lines up in a bit of a tricky way for Varland, who last pitched on Wednesday. The Saints are off on Monday, as always, and if he starts Tuesday at Omaha, Varland would be on three days rest for the Saturday turn. I wonder if the Twins will have him make a very short (2-3 inning) start on Tuesday, to keep open the possibility of a weekend promotion. LOOKING AHEAD On Monday, the Twins will have their third day off in a weeklong span. So they'll be as rested as they're gonna be the rest of the way as they head into the most challenging week on the remaining schedule: six games against first-place teams, including four against the Rangers, who lead the AL in run differential (+189). TUESDAY, 8/22: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Wade Miley WEDNESDAY, 8/23: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Corbin Burnes THURSDAY, 8/24: RANGERS @ TWINS – LHP Andrew Heaney v. RHP Pablo Lopez FRIDAY, 8/25: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Dane Dunning v. RHP Sonny Gray SATURDAY, 8/26: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Max Scherzer v. LHP Dallas Keuchel SUNDAY, 8/27: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Montgomery v. RHP Bailey Ober View full article

It would be a dramatic (short-term) slide down the defensive spectrum ... but could move Minnesota's top prospect into an immediate – and permanent – impact role in the big leagues. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports At Twins spring training this year, there was plenty of buzz and energy afloat, owing to a number of factors. Among them: new team uniforms and branding, the stunning return of Carlos Correa, and (above all) the first remotely normal camp since before COVID. I had the opportunity to cover the team for a week in March, and definitely enjoyed soaking in all of those sources of good vibes. But there was one player in particular who naturally stood out to me. It was one of the least-tenured players in the organization – drafted just nine months earlier – and the youngest player in big-league camp. It was obvious at the time: Brooks Lee was special, and that was no secret. In five months since, that has only grown more apparent. After accruing 42 at-bats in spring training, second-most of any Twins player, Lee opened his season at Double-A. It was a pretty aggressive assignment for a player drafted the previous summer, but hardly a surprise with Lee, who joined Wichita for the playoffs last fall. He took the challenge in stride, as usual. Lee's performance during the first half in Double-A was solid, if unspectacular. Then, as he settled in and made his adjustments, the 22-year-old started to heat up. He slashed .365/.433/.600 in July to earn a promotion to St. Paul earlier this month, putting him one step away from the majors. Lee is currently experiencing an early learning curve at Triple-A, but history tells us it's only a matter of time before he masters this level like each before it. From there, it becomes a matter of fit on the big-league team. He's spent time at both shortstop and third base in the minors this year, and most figure he'll end up at the latter. But that position is hopefully going to be occupied on the Twins by Royce Lewis, at least for the rest of this year. Lee's future defensive home was a subject of conversation when I chatted with him this spring for a Twins Daily story. I asked him if he'd received any indication from the team about playing other positions, given that Correa was freshly minted the biggest free agent contract in franchise history. "Nothing yet so far," he said. "I can take control of myself by trying to be as good as I can at all three infield positions, so I just continue to practice those. Whatever they ask me to do. If they want me to play right field, I'll play right field. If they want me to play first, I'll play first." Well. That last part, clearly an afterthought at the time, may represent Lee's best chance to make an immediate impact on the Twins. The void at first base for Minnesota Joey Gallo was the Opening Day starter at first base, and the only reason he remains the primary starter there today is because every alternative fell by the wayside. Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff are both sidelined indefinitely. Donovan Solano is 35 and hobbled. The Twins are so hard-up for help at the position that they started catcher Christian Vázquez there on Sunday. First base is essentially the only position for the Twins that is not comfortably set, and it's nowhere close. The addition of a true difference-maker at first is perhaps the biggest outside boost the offense could realistically hope to receive, given its makeup. They passed up their chance to swing big at the deadline, but that doesn't mean they're entirely out of options. Could Brooks Lee handle first base? I don't want to fall into the trap of downplaying the difficulty of playing first base in the majors. That inclination always reminds me of my favorite scene in Moneyball, when Billy Beane tries to allay Scott Hatteberg's misgivings about moving to the position by assuring him, "It's not that hard. Tell him Wash." To which Ron Washington replies, "It's incredibly hard." First base might be at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, but that doesn't mean it's unimportant, or that a certain skill set isn't required to be effective there. I think a dismissal of this reality is largely fueling the angst and confusion around Minnesota's refusal to try Edouard Julien at first. If you don't trust a guy to play the position with sound mechanics, handle fast-developing situations, and salvage wayward throws with his glove, that can be very problematic. There are a LOT of plays running through first base. With that said, many players take well to the position despite having little or no experience there. These are often large-bodied guys who came up at spots like catcher or third base. Guys like Hatteberg, or Gallo, or Vázquez, or Joe Mauer, or Miguel Sanó, or ... Brooks Lee. I have little doubt Lee could handle putting on a first base mitt for the final stretch of the season, with the understanding it's a short-term arrangement driven by extreme need. The best version of the future Twins core features him at the hot corner. The big question is whether the best version of the current Twins would have him on the opposite side, playing across from Lewis. A bat worth betting on? It bears repeating: Lee has not exactly gotten off to a hot start in Triple-A. Through eight games he is 7-for-33 (.212) with one extra-base hit, one walk, and six strikeouts. Unless and until that changes, this subject is moot. But I'm operating under the assumption it will change, quickly, and if so Lee becomes a very intriguing piece in the team's planning. While his standing atop the defensive spectrum was part of his appeal at atop of the first round, let's make no mistakes: Lee's biggest selling point as a draft pick was his bat. He was among the best and most polished college hitters in the country, and that tool has carried him as a pro, where he's slashed .290/.363/.458 while rising faster than all but one other player from the class. (Zach Neto, who's holding his own as the Angels' starting shortstop.) If Lee gets locked in, his offensive profile is pretty much exactly what the Twins could desperately use: a switch-hitting, disciplined contact machine who can spray line drives and has a knack for making adjustments. There's also a good chance he could flop. Lee is not Superman, even if he currently plays with an S on his chest (two, actually). It would be a lot to ask of a kid barely one year removed from being drafted. But everything I've seen from Lee leads me to believe he might be up to the task. There's a reason I included him on my list of five reinforcements who could make a pivotal impact for the Twins this year back in April. The previous four have already arrived, with varying degrees of success and longevity. Lee is the last big card they have left to play. "There are a variety of different ways Lee could slot in for the Twins, even as he continues to play shortstop exclusively at Wichita," I wrote. "His switch-hitting bat is the real attraction, and the club will be hard-pressed to keep it bottled in the minors all summer if they feel he can help their contending cause." Four months later, circumstances could have hardly come together more favorably to pave way for a meaningful late-season debut. I wouldn't say it's likely by any means, but I've gotta think it's on the table. When it comes to securing this division and ending a 20-year postseason curse, everything needs to be. View full article

The Twins have 42 games remaining and, according to Fangraphs, a 90% chance of reaching the playoffs. What would it take for that dreaded 10% failure scenario to come to fruition? Let's break down the final seven weeks of the schedule to get a clear lay of the land. Here's the short version of what we're about to cover: The Twins are in a really good position. A vast majority of their remaining games are either at home, or against bad teams, or both. Here's an overview of how the final quarter of their schedule breaks down in terms of home/road split and opponent quality. Home vs. Road Home games: 24 Road games: 18 Say what you will about this year's Twins, or last year's, but when playing at Target Field both have been bona fide playoff-caliber teams. The Twins are 33-24 (.579) at home this year, after going 46-35 (.568) there last year. When the Twins last did make the playoffs, in the shortened 2020 season, they went 24-7 at home (.774). They had a .568 winning percentage at Target Field in 2019, and .605 in 2018. If the Twins match this year's benchmark by playing .579 ball in their remaining 24 home games, they'd go 14-10, meaning they could go 5-13 in their 18 road games and still finish .500. They could go 8-10 on the road and finish 84-78, which frankly should be plenty to win this division. Opponent Breakdown Above .500: 15 Below .500: 27 Two-thirds of the Twins' remaining games come against teams that are currently below .500. Many of them are well below .500. This is why, according to the website Tankathon, the Twins have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule for any MLB team. Meanwhile, Cleveland has the seventh-hardest. When you actually shake out the remaining 42 games by opponent, however, you find a somewhat more sobering picture that basically narrows down to 13 critical games. Rangers: 7 games Guardians: 6 games White Sox: 4 games Pirates: 3 games Rockies: 3 games Reds: 3 games Mets: 3 games Rays: 3 games Angels: 3 games Athletics: 3 games Brewers: 2 games Tigers: 2 games The Twins have yet to play the Texas Rangers, who've been leading the AL West almost all year and are 22 games above .500 with a +181 run differential. This is a very good team that only got better at the trade deadline. The last time the Twins played a team of this caliber – the Braves, back in late June – they got their asses handed to them and it led to a closed-door meeting. So these upcoming showdowns with the Rangers – who are arguably the current World Series favorite from the AL – will be watched closely. We can fairly treat these match-ups as a litmus test for October. The first meeting is a four-game series at Target Field the weekend after next. Minnesota travels to Texas the following weekend. Both of those series are followed directly by three-game sets against the Guardians. This 14-day stretch really feels like the defining juncture in the remaining schedule: Aug 24-27: 4 games vs. Rangers at Target Field Aug 28-30: 3 games vs. Guardians at Target Field Aug 31: Day off Sept 1-3: 3 games vs. Rangers at Globe Life Field Sept 4-6: 3 games vs. Guardians at Progressive Field This stands out as Cleveland's biggest chance to make a run and turn the tides on their shrinking postseason chances. If they can make hay in their head-to-head matchups against the Twins, winning say five of six, while Minnesota falls flat in seven games against the mighty Rangers, it's plausible the Guardians could make up ground fast in that two-week stretch. At the very least, they can stay close enough to keep it a race in the final three weeks. But it bears emphasizing how tough the road ahead is for Cleveland. While the Twins are grappling with the Rangers in that time range, the Guardians will have to deal with the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Rays. They've also still got series ahead against Texas, Baltimore, and San Francisco. A whopping 29 of Cleveland's remaining 43 games (67%) are against teams with records above .500 currently. They also have a smaller share of remaining home games (51%) compared to Minnesota (57%). The Guardians are already in a huge hole, trailing Minnesota by 4 ½ games in the division, and as we've established, they have their work cut out for them. If the Twins merely play .500 ball the rest of the way – which truly feels like a given at the bare minimum, given their schedule – Cleveland would need to go 25-18 (.581) the rest of the way to match them in the standings at 83-79. I'm not going to say that can't happen. Anything can happen. But to say the Twins have a favorable path forward in the AL Central would be an understatement. View full article

In typical fashion, the Twins followed a faith-inspiring run of success with a confidence-crushing descent into miserable, punchless play against a beatable opponent. From five straight wins to four straight losses, just like that. In typical fashion, they lost no ground in the AL Central despite this latest relapse. Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/7 through Sun, 8/13 *** Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 62-58) Run Differential Last Week: -8 (Overall: +39) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 114 | MIN 9, DET 3: Bats Break Through Against Lefty Starter Game 115 | DET 6, MIN 0: Dominant E-Rod Snaps Winning Streak Game 116 | DET 9, MIN 5: Ober, Balazovic Bomb in Ugly Loss Game 117 | DET 3, MIN 0: Offense No-shows Again Behind Solid Maeda Game 118 | PHI 13, MIN 2: Phillies Obliterate Twins Pitching in Blowout Game 119 | MIN 8, PHI 1: Lopez, Gallo Lead in Slump-Ending Victory Game 120 | MIN 3, PHI 0: Gray Combines with Bullpen for Shutout NEWS & NOTES The Twins had some injury scares last week, with Donovan Solano tweaking his knee in Detroit and Max Kepler taking a(nother!) ball off his toe in Philly, but it appears both players avoided anything too serious. Solano was back in the starting lineup on Sunday at DH and Kepler entered later as a sub. It was a fairly quiet week in terms of roster action, with Minnesota making only one move: swapping out Brent Headrick after he threw 67 pitches on Friday for a fresh arm in Cole Sands. The impending return of Royce Lewis is the big roster storyline. We'll cover it in depth shortly. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins sandwiched a very ugly stretch of baseball between some fine efforts against the Tigers and Phillies, with a pair of blowout wins and a shutout bookending their brutal midweek four-game losing streak. Among the highlights from the past seven days: Joey Gallo shaking out of his massive slump with a two-homer, 4-for-4 game on Saturday night. Pablo López firing six shutout innings against the Phillies in the same game, lowering his ERA to 3.66 on the season and improving to 3-0 with 0.47 ERA in three August starts. Sonny Gray (6 IP, 0 ER) and Kenta Maeda (6 IP, 1 ER) adding their own brilliant efforts, and fortifying confidence in what is quickly taking shape as the likely Twins playoff rotation. Combined, that trio has a collective 3.05 ERA and 122-to-24 K/BB ratio in 18 starts since the All-Star break, including a 1.84 ERA and 49-to-2 K/BB ratio in August. Michael A. Taylor delivering a pair of web gems in the same inning on Friday night, albeit in a losing effort, and adding another diving catch in a much more meaningful spot on Saturday. Perhaps most consequential of all: Carlos Correa shows real signs of coming on. He ran his hitting streak to eight games in a week where he was 8-for-19 with three homers, two doubles and six RBIs. Importantly: his plate approach was noticeably improved, resulting in a 3-to-4 K/BB ratio. Will this be the breakthrough that sticks? I'm skeptical, but hopeful. It would be a massive development for the Twins and their postseason outlook. LOWLIGHTS The Twins offense can't shake free of its eternal pattern, with each short burst of life followed by an inevitable return to widespread mega-slumping. The lineup impressively scored nine runs in the series opener against Detroit, then got shut out twice in the next three games, and barely made a whimper in the opener against Philly. Sunday saw another unremarkable left-handed starter mow through the Twins lineup with ease. Ranger Suarez was one of five lefties the Twins saw in seven games, which helped to minimize the impacts of Edouard Julien (1-for-16) and Matt Wallner (2-for-18). The prevalence of LH match-ups made it all the more frustrating that aside from Correa, Minnesota's right-handed bats continued to flounder. Kyle Farmer went 3-for-21 with one walk and zero extra-base hits. Christian Vázquez was 2-for-15. Taylor was 2-for-20, offsetting his defensive excellence. Willi Castro (stunningly the LEADOFF hitter in Friday night's blowout loss) was 2-for-19. It's understood these aren't great hitters overall, but their collective inability to produce at all in favorable spots is just killing the Twins offense. Meanwhile, the once-exemplary Minnesota pitching staff is experiencing a major midseason swoon. We can only hope it's temporary. As Aaron Gleeman tweeted, their 13-run shellacking by the Phillies on Friday night left them with the worst ERA and second-highest OPS allowed in the American League since the All-Star break, though they rebounded nicely the next two days. The Dallas Keuchel experiment, as expected, quickly went off the rails, as Philadelphia hitters feasted on his soft arsenal for six runs on six hits and two walks in 1 ⅔ innings. In two starts with the Twins, Keuchel struck out zero of the 36 batters he faced, yielding a 9.45 ERA that's even worse than last year's mark (9.20). We've likely seen the end of Keuchel's ill-fated Twins tenure, with Louie Varland looking like a far superior option (3-0 with a 0.47 ERA in three August starts at Triple-A) and throwing a gem on the same night. It was a worth a shot. The fifth rotation spot is not of terribly high concern in the grand scheme – you only need four starters at most for the playoffs – but Bailey Ober's struggles are more troubling, from both a micro and macro perspective. Just two starts after giving up a season-high 11 hits against the Royals, he matched that total against the Tigers on Wednesday, allowing five runs (four earned) in five innings. These two starts represented a stark departure from Ober's previous dependability, and they came against two of the league's worst offenses. I don't necessarily want to overreact to an altogether short downturn for Ober, especially when his 7.71 ERA over the past three starts comes attached to a 17-to-1 K/BB ratio, and no detectable dip in velocity or control. But it's hard to ignore the fact that he's already well past his previous workload precedent as a pro. Rocco Baldelli and the Twins will need to be very cautious in how they proceed with this key fixture on their staff's present and future. TRENDING STORYLINE Lewis has convincingly looked ready in his rehab stint at St. Paul, going 5-for-12 with two homers in four games last week. He will likely rejoin the Twins on Tuesday at Target Field. The return of Lewis will force some interesting decisions elsewhere. Most immediately, the Twins need to make room on the active roster. Who goes to make room? Jordan Luplow is a logical candidate, although he's made a nice short-term impact and Castro is more functionally redundant. Both have options. Then the question becomes: how does Lewis fit back into the lineup? Presumably he'll take over on a semi-regular basis at third, although that seems to leave Jorge Polanco in the lurch. It would be really helpful if either of those guys could step in at first base, but there's no indication that's in the cards. We'll see how Lewis slots back into the lineup with a bunch of righty match-ups on deck, but the idea of him mixing into the top of the order alongside Julien, Correa and Wallner is pretty exciting. LOOKING AHEAD The schedule is about to get much kinder to the Twins, now that they've finally completed a grueling stretch full of consecutive road trips and few days off. All but two of their remaining games in August will be at Target Field, where they have a .580 winning percentage this year. Their five games in the coming week are all at home, where the Twins will face two bottom-tier opponents with a pair of off days mixed in. Here's a chance to catch their breath and hopefully rattle off some dubs. TUESDAY, 8/15: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Alex Faedo v. RHP Bailey Ober WEDNESDAY, 8/16: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Reese Olson v. RHP Kenta Maeda FRIDAY, 8/18: PIRATES @ TWINS – TBD v. TBD SATURDAY, 8/19: PIRATES @ TWINS – RHP Mitch Keller v. RHP Pablo Lopez SUNDAY, 8/20: PIRATES @ TWINS – RHP Quinn Priester v. RHP Sonny Gray View full article